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The last cited article is so good, I'm putting it here again, hoping that others will take the time to read it.
The "Bear" is as usual far ahead of his time, and this time is no different. Realistic looks at the future, with some historical and analytical basis, are SO much better than the trite airhead talk on some of the financial cheerleader shows... aka ... Fox Business News, CNBC, and often Bloomberg News.
The globalization argument, with the effects of GDP in other countries is good and mostly logical... and probably more correct. I believe that the Bear missed the cumulative effect of our advanced infrastructure in his calculations, but this may be inherent in our economy as stated. The second part of my disagreement is the fact that he ignored the effect of class warfare in our own country, which I think will happen, and advance the equalization process.
In any case, an excellent article. Sadly, most who read it will not take the time to absorb the full meaning. In a way, probably just as well, as US confidence levels are low enough already.
All in all, most financial theories won't embrace any of the scenario presented, as they were built when the world was much bigger, and less sophisticated.
On the part about the positive effects of a broad based Obama recovery plan... we can only hope that it happens. I'm hoping that the idea of productive borrowing is correct. I don't understand it, but if the Bear says it can work, I'm joining the team.