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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581 |
And yet, correlation is not causation.;-)
Yours,
Issodhos And? Quite simple, Slipped. The mere fact that two actions occur at a particular point does not mean that the one was the cause of the other. Proof would be needed to reach that conclusion. None was presented. Yours, Issodhos
"When all has been said that can be said, and all has been done that can be done, there will be poetry";-) -- Issodhos
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 21,134
Administrator Bionic Scribe
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Administrator Bionic Scribe
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 21,134 |
Iss, that is absolutely untrue.
Any evidence would have to be statistical. Do you really expect a study to ask each person who got pregnant whether the abstinence only program caused the pregnancy? That is absurd and intellectually dishonest.
There is a statistical correlation. It does not prove the case, but it is evidence in support.
Life is a banquet -- and most poor suckers are starving to death -- Auntie Mame
You are born naked and everything else is drag - RuPaul
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Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581 |
You might even have to marry the son of a crack dealer! (Yes, Bristol, I'm talking to you.  ) Why bring Bristol into it? Has she gotten into your or anyone else's face about unwed teen pregnancy? Yours, Issodhos Depends, Isso. Pregnancy doesn't equal marriage. Marriage doesn't equal best for parents and child. Marriage is risky enough as it is. All of you out there who are married and have never been divorced and all of you who have never cheated on your spouse raise your hands. Wait while I count. Hmmmm, less than half of you have your hands up. Guess that puts me in the minority. But, my point is that the campaign is over, the kid had nothing to do with advocating anything, so it is probably time to stop publicly slapping her around for chits and grins. Yours, Issodhos
"When all has been said that can be said, and all has been done that can be done, there will be poetry";-) -- Issodhos
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 10,151 Likes: 54
veteran
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veteran
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 10,151 Likes: 54 |
I am in agreement with Issodhos on this one in the linguistic specifics  . I believe that a decrease in practical sex ed, and/or an increase in abstinence-only education, has a lot to do with this trend - I find no other compelling reason for it. But that's still an assumption, and the fact that direct statistics can't be expected, doesn't mean it's any less of an assumption. I would, however, say that it's a reasonable assumption, especially in the absence of an alternative theory. I hope that picks the last of the nits.
Julia
A 45’s quicker than 409
Betty’s cleaning’ house for the very last time
Betty’s bein’ bad
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Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Sep 2005
Posts: 12,581 |
Iss, that is absolutely untrue.
Any evidence would have to be statistical. Do you really expect a study to ask each person who got pregnant whether the abstinence only program caused the pregnancy? That is absurd and intellectually dishonest.
There is a statistical correlation. It does not prove the case, but it is evidence in support. The article states that teen pregnacy went up. It does not show that it was the result of "abstinancy pledges". To make a pretense that it does, is what is intellectually dishonest. Yours, Issodhos
"When all has been said that can be said, and all has been done that can be done, there will be poetry";-) -- Issodhos
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Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,031
member
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member
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,031 |
...I would, however, say that it's a reasonable assumption, especially in the absence of an alternative theory... Julia, One might make any number of assumptions as to the cause; e. g., drop-out rate, employment rate, divorce rate, etc.. The proper scientific method of testing this assumption - or any other - would be to postulate the appropriate null hypothesis and then collect and analyze data.
Life should be led like a cavalry charge - Theodore Roosevelt
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Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,850
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 5,850 |
And yet, correlation is not causation.;-)
Yours,
Issodhos And? Quite simple, Slipped. The mere fact that two actions occur at a particular point does not mean that the one was the cause of the other. Proof would be needed to reach that conclusion. None was presented. Yours, Issodhos Nor was causation asserted.
"The white men were as thick and numerous and aimless as grasshoppers, moving always in a hurry but never seeming to get to whatever place it was they were going to." Dee Brown
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 15,646
Carpal Tunnel
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Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 15,646 |
There was another recent study, I recall it was referenced if not discussed here at the RR, showing that young people who made abstinency pledges were no less likely to become sexually active than those who did not - but they were less likely to practice safe sex. So that argues for causation. At the same time, I note one expert opinion given in the article cited here: Sarah Brown, CEO of the National Campaign to Prevent Teen and Unplanned Pregnancy, says she is less inclined to believe abortion is driving higher teen birth rates and suggests that increases in high-profile unmarried births in Hollywood, movies and even politics is a significant factor for impressionable teens.
"In the last couple of years, we had Jamie Lynn Spears. We had Juno and we had Bristol Palin. Those three were in 2007 and 2008 and not in 2005 to 2006, but they point to that phenomenon," she says. I checked out the org. It carries water IMHO.
Steve Give us the wisdom to teach our children to love,
to respect and be kind to one another,
so that we may grow with peace in mind.
(Native American prayer)
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 10,151 Likes: 54
veteran
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veteran
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 10,151 Likes: 54 |
...I would, however, say that it's a reasonable assumption, especially in the absence of an alternative theory... Julia, One might make any number of assumptions as to the cause; e. g., drop-out rate, employment rate, divorce rate, etc.. The proper scientific method of testing this assumption - or any other - would be to postulate the appropriate null hypothesis and then collect and analyze data. Um, Ron? We're pretty much in agreement on this one.
Julia
A 45’s quicker than 409
Betty’s cleaning’ house for the very last time
Betty’s bein’ bad
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
Why bring Bristol into it? Since Bristol Palin was presented as a public figure I feel free to use her as an example. Bristol's choice to keep her baby was presented in such a positive light that it obliterated the point that getting pregnant in her circumstances is a disaster. For some girls it is less of a disaster, for others more, but it closes all kinds of options long before that should happen. I feel very sad for Brisol, that she can never be single, 21, and free to go anywhere to do anything she chooses. Having a child can be the best experience of your life, but there's no need to do that to the exclusion of all of life's other possibilities.
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