Capitol Hill Blue Forums Active Threads This Week

its only 26 days until the first debate (both will appear). Hopefully Biden will have at it with a will and mention stuff like; Trump not allowing the house's effort to deal with the southern border, a few things from the Trump's presidency like the simple fact that there were several who thought the Trump presidency was the worst in the history of the nation, etc. You know, that kind of stuff.

If Biden actually goes after Trump then, perhaps, some votes might change?

As a swing voter, I follow independents closely. They’re the election deciders. Forbes/Harris X has a poll taken after the guilty verdict. In 2020 independents gave Biden the white house by voting for him 54-41 over Trump. Prior to the guilty verdict independents were leaning toward Trump by an average of 39-34 with 14% stating they’ll vote third party, 10% undecided. It also independent that most dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president.

Here's Forbes/Harris X poll which was taken overnight after the guilty verdict. Check out question H2a: If the 2024 election for president were held today and it was between the following candidates, who would you vote for?

https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/642...ernight%20Poll%20-%2031%20May%202024.pdf

The good news is there’s a definite shift among independents. From 39-34 Trump over Biden to 33-29 Biden over Trump. But third-party candidates increased from 14 points to 22 points and undecided from 10 to 15 points. Trump has dropped 10 points, but Biden has dropped one. I’ll wait a couple of weeks to ensure this poll isn’t a one off. That Biden has for the first time since September of last year taken the lead among independents.

Even though Biden didn’t increase his voter percentage among independents, perhaps most if not all of Trump’s 10-point drop went to third party candidates or undecided, it’s still addition by subtraction for Biden. A definite plus for old Joe. But this also shows a definite hesitation among independents who most dislike and don’t want neither Trump or Biden as their next president to vote for Biden, instead of Trump it’s voting third party for them or perhaps just staying home. Regardless, if this poll is accurate, I see it as a big plus for Biden.

I’m going by Biden’s numbers. His very low numbers would have doomed Biden to a landslide loss against almost any other republican than Trump. Any sitting president with a job approval of below 50% has lost his reelection bid. Ford at 45% lost to Carter in 1976. Jimmy at 39% lost to Reagan in 1980, G.H.W. Bush at 43% lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 and Trump at 42% lost to Biden in 2020. Be grateful if you’re a Biden supporter, that you want Biden to win because he’s Joe Biden and not just anti-Trump that it’s Trump Biden is running against. Half of all America don’t want this rematch. They want someone other than either Biden or Trump. Poll after poll has showed this.

59% of all Americans don’t or didn’t want Biden to run for reelection. 57% don’t and didn’t want Trump to run again. You have two very unpopular, unwanted, disliked major party candidates. 55% of all Americans have a negative or unfavorable view of Biden, 54% the same negative/unfavorable view of Trump.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders

It’s this negative view of both major party candidates that makes this election not normal. Only once before had we an election where both major party candidates were viewed under 50% favorably and over 50% unfavorably. 2016 between Trump and Clinton. The result was a low voter turnout 54% and a high third-party vote, 6%. Expect the same this year as voter enthusiasm is even lower this year to vote for president than it was in 2016. By contrast in 2020 with high voter enthusiasm, voter turnout was 62% using VAP with only 1.7% third party vote.

"almost any other democrat"

I do want to respond to ... "This is what makes this rematch not normal to them." but first ... which Democrat? While I can see a whole bevy of competent people, none has the gravitas to take on the mantle of President .... IMHO

Beside Attila ( a bit extreme ... I prefer a dead ham sandwich), who?

Well, it is what it is. It’s not what I’m missing, perhaps it what the whole country is missing. I can let you know how all Americans are viewing this rematch or totally ignore it. Fact is Biden is basically a non-factor for around 70% of all Americans. They’re either very pro-Trump or very anti-Trump. Even among those who today state they’re voting for Biden, their much more anti-Trump than for Biden. 55% of those who state they’re voting for Biden are mostly voting against Trump. Only 43% are mostly voting for Biden. For the anti-Trumpers, who the democrat is don’t matter. Biden, Mother Terresa, Atilla the Hun. But for the final 30% who for the most part is both anti-Biden and anti-Trump, who don’t like nor want either one, How they view Biden and his 4 years as president very well may be the deciding factor. They tend to forget Trump’s childish antics, his bullying tactics, his obnoxiousness, his very poor handling of his presidential duties, his lies, The impeachments, 1-6, all his legal problems and on and on. This latter 30% are more focused on Biden, he’s president now than Trump who once was. We’ll have to wait and see how this hush money guilty verdict affects Trump.

This time around, it’s Biden who must defend his presidency, not Trump. For this latter 30%, this isn’t a normal election in the sense they’re being asked to choose between two candidates they dislike and don’t want as the next president. This is what makes this rematch not normal to them. Not the preservation of democracy. This election, rematch, to this last 30% who aren’t pro or anti-Trumpers, has the air or feeling among them as being a who cares who wins or loses election. They want someone other than Trump and Biden. It’s really that simple. Probably well over half won’t even bother to vote. Then another good percentage will vote third party against both Biden and Trump with the remaining choosing between them. Those that do choose will be the election deciders.

I’ve said this before, I firmly believe that almost any other democrat than Biden would be beating Trump by 10 points or more. Not trailing by 2. Especially when I break down this final 30%.

If this was a "normal" election, everything you said about the candidates would be true and valid, but again you have missed the most salient issue .... it is not a "normal" election ... we have Trump ... impeached, indicted, convicted felon, sexual predator, but most important a candidate as anti-American as any candidate in history. Try analyzing from that perspective, and all your protestations appear as ephemeral as fog in sunlight. That the American electorate is too frakking stupid to understand it, too frakking ignorant, just don't care, or they are all for the demise of Democracy. is the issue. And to top it off, elected Republicans are complicit.

This is why I am that madman screaming of the Death of Democracy ... nothing else matters

Trump had a little talk, on TV about the fact that he was convicted of 34 serious crimes. He carried on for quite some time. First he went through his standard lies, and then he moved on with the anger he has for Michael Cohan, who actually borrowed against his house to get money for him and then went to jail for him. You all know the drill - just the standard Trump stuff. In this case, however, he broke the rule about going after those that were witnesses amongst others. He, basically, did everything somebody who has been convicted and awaiting sentencing is not supposed to do. The normal criminal gets to go to jail but, him being incredibly important, I suspect its gonna be another Trump skate.

Then our Democratic president - Silent Joe Biden, had a MUCH shorter talk about how Trump was being mean about our laws, etc. He never called Trump on any of his lies, you know, the one, for instance, that says that he is responsible for the millions of bad people coming into the United States because its all his fault. He left out the part that TRUMP is responsible, TRUMP was the guy who made sure by forbidding the Republican house to NOT support their own bill, that they wrote, about taking care of our southern border thereby making sure that troubles in our south continue.

So, again, I wonder if Biden really does want to lose the election whilst ignoring his competition's lies, accusations, etc. Its a fair question I think.............

Oh, there is, actually, a plethora of books written by those that have been screwed by Trump, Cohan is just the newest. On top of that there is also a bunch who were owed money and just gave up getting it because Trump kept such charges going for a very long time. (before he got into politics nobody would work for him anymore without the money up front!) I wonder why they all have not joined up and created a club, possible called "The Screwed by Trump Folk". They could join up, have a little beer and tell each other how they got screwed by Trump.

Ever hear of the old political adage, candidates’ matter. That’s what I think we’re dealing with here with this rematch. Two candidates most Americans don’t want as their next president. To those Americans, perhaps democracy is already dead. They’re given two choices they don’t want nothing to do with. I expect a very low voter turnout because of that. Perhaps even below 50%. Something that has happened only once since 1924

Democrats have been so fixated on Trump, they’ve failed to realize there’s another group of voters out there just as fixated on Biden. They blame Biden for rising prices, for their standard of living deteriorating and a host of other things. Most things that Biden has no control over. But Biden is president today, hence the blame. Have you look at how most Americans look at Biden for his handling of most issues or has it been just Trump. For quite a lot of Americans, this election isn’t just about Trump, it’s also about Biden. Take a good look at Biden’s overall job approval and his handling on most issues.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues

This is why for at least a third of all Americans, this election is just as much about Biden as it is about Trump. Only the democrats, anti-Trumpers can’t wrap their heads around this. They either can’t or don’t understand. Democrats can’t be only anti-Trump and expect to win. They must give some positives about Biden, give this third of all Americans a reason to vote for Biden, not just against Trump. Most of this third don’t want Trump either. Trump hasn’t given this third a reason to vote for him, but Biden hasn’t either. Not being Trump was enough for Biden to win in 2020, that isn’t enough this time around.

Predictions, gloom and doom, all that might revolve around that old political adage of candidates matter. If you look back to November 2022, 55% of all Americans didn’t want Biden to run for reelection then. This was well known, 59% don’t want him running for reelection today.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/gebmjsbpbw/econTabReport.pdf

Not once did Melania show up for the now convicted felon's trail.

seems like you are providing an argument for my prediction Trump wins 2024

Get prepared for true weaponization of the federal government against it's citizens .... meaning those who oppose the unConstititutional policies to be enacted or directed by fiat

Democracy is Dead in America .... you heard it here first

This is an authorized message from Rapace

This is not the end as far as the election is concerned. The sentencing won’t occur until 11 July. After which if I understand this right, Trump’s lawyers have 30 days in which to file their intent to appeal and then six months to file the actual appeal. All of this will take Trump past the election.

Which leads me to the question, what effect will this guilty verdict have on the election. Which is unclear, at least to me. The guilty verdict doesn’t stop Trump from running for president. How will it affect those who currently support him? That remains to be seen. One need to follow the polls closely from two weeks to a month from now to determine what effects if any effect happens. Today, the two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

The five way race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Trump leads in both. He also leads today in all battleground, swing states. https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

These I will be paying real close attention to. This unwanted rematch has as many voters out there who don’t want Biden reelected as don’t want Trump to regain the white house. This has been totally lost on most except those who pay very close attention to all the numbers, stats if you will. Considering that the two guilty verdicts in the civil trials, New York Fraud case and the E.J. Carroll trial had no effect. The Georgia election interference indictments, the 91 federal indictments in both the classified documents and 1-6 cases didn’t change or put a dent in the numbers or challenge Trump’s slim lead in the polls. It’s uncertain this guilty verdict in the hush money case will. One can only hope, then wait and see.

One needs to keep in mind this rematch is one most Americans don’t want. You have 59% of all Americans today who didn’t and don’t want Biden to run for reelection, 56% who didn’t and don’t want Trump to run again either. You have half of all Americans who would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot if they could. That’s half, actually 49% of all Americans who don’t want neither one, neither Trump nor Biden. Something else no one is taking seriously or probably even knows or don’t care. Everyone is too caught in being very pro or anti-Trump than to gauge the mood, the feelings all Americans have about this rematch and both candidates running for president.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...roadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/

Guilty Guilty Guilty!

I am thinking of moving to either Canada or Mexico if he wins.

It will be a huge disaster. I find it very strange. If everybody would go back to his last time as president they might remember that it was not all great and wonderful. One if his big ones was starting Iran back up making nukes and that's just for starters.

I have tried, three times now, to delete this because of the problem. I apologize but I don't know what else to do.

You link doesn't seem to work right for me. This link did work though:
Link
I wasn't able to read it though because it want's me to create an account. I don't do that to read one article.

I think Trump has never stopped getting ready to lose. That's part of his personality.

Sadly, I also think that Trump will not lose. I sure hope he does, but for some reason, I feel it in my bones that he will not lose.

Just an afterthought: Maybe we should start a thread asking "What will you do when Trump wins?"
My problem is, I don't have an answer.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://medium.com/visionarye-talks/iran-is-going-to-give-nearly-all-of-the-middle-east-nukes-to-level-the-playing-field-888896c1a3e8

Iran wants to level the playing field so EVERYBODY has a nuke which will scare everybody into not using one.

One can only wonder! Sure makes me feel safer already!

No longer sure that the guy saying this is not insane (just saying)

I have been trying to delete this post (2 times so far) but, for some reasons it will not go away. 2 people have had problems with it.

This time I got:
Since this post is the first post in a topic and already has replies it may not be deleted. This being the case I will give it up. I do not think anybody should try to add to this as its acting strange.

You are right and its just not gonna happen. The Democrats will say that if they do that somebody will accuse them of starting a war rather than being careful. Not only that but the Republicans will start it by not allowing money to be spent on anything that so wasteful. I can think of a few other baloneys as, I am sure you can too.

Still, you remain right and I agree!!!

Thanks for the reply!

I expect the seervicer got a lot more. I also wonder why Biden added another one to make it three to do, I wonder, exactly?

For starters they'd better damn well put that big green fence around The Capitol back up and this time, if they're smart, make it a permanent teaching display AND a security fence, a memorial that functions properly.
If one third of the country has gone psycho, we need to protect the representatives of the other two thirds and contain the violence from the angry minority.

Every penny of the principal and interest went back to the Department of Education via their loan servicer. At 9-% interest, I’m sure the servicer got at least 3%.