Capitol Hill Blue Forums Thread Like Summary - Round Table for Spring 2024

It's more than a love affair. They have found someone who comes as close to David Duke to saying the quiet part out loud ... yeah he is a bigot ... he's proud of it ... and that has embolden them.

The proof to that claim is fairly straight forward. Consider all the Republican candidates. They all stand for the same policies whether on immigration, fiscal, or economic issues, so what separates Trump from the rest? The driving force of the BASE .... bigotry. He comes the closest to saying it out loud. Think of Gov DeSantis. He has come closest to actually enacting prohibitive legislation targeting sexual orientation, book banning, companies, schools, etc which do not toe the line on a whole host of conservative issues and yet he would be lucky to be elected dogcatcher. What's the difference? He won't say it out loud. You gotta be the voice of their bigotry. You gotta tell them they aren't bigots. Had Gov DeSantis simply said there are fine people who are white supremacists, he would have been in contention, and he had the legislative receipts to support it.

Elected Republicans are onboard with Trump because they know the BASE will not tolerate people who recognize their bigotry. Big Business doesn't care about the bigotry but they know Republicans will lower taxes, so they don't care. All they have to do is not incite the BASE.

What makes all of this dangerous is the BASE only knows one part of the Constitution ... 2nd Amendment. The rest they don't care about, and in fact they would be good with a dictator if it were Trump ... the one person who had the audacity to say it out loud ... white supremacists are fine people ... which makes Nazis fine people.

Once you peel back all the rationalizations, the only thing left is bigotry.

Guilty Guilty Guilty!

Yes, it’s been only about a week since Trump’s guilty verdicts. You do have to give it some time for the polls to catchup to that guilty verdict. Usually 2-3 weeks after a major event, happening takes place. I consider this a major event. But a foreseen one, not an unforeseen one. It’s the unforeseen events, happenings that makes the needle jump all over the place. This guilty verdict was expected by most, perhaps for the most part it had already been baked in. Much like I think abortion has been baked into the equation long before the SCOTUS overturned Roe. But this is me.

I’m not paying any attention to the pro and anti-Trumpers. They’re set in stone as to who they’ll vote for. I’m watching with an eagle eye those who don’t fall into the pro or anti-Trump columns, those who dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden as the next president. Roughly 30% of the electorate. There hasn’t been enough data to get a handle on how the guilty verdicts has affected this latter group. There hasn’t been enough time that has passed for the guilty verdicts to settle in with this group. They’re not political junkies and they don’t pay much attention to national politics. But they will be your election deciders.

Here's your battleground/swing states. The guilty verdicts hasn’t been taken into account. This is pre-hush money standings.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

New Swing State Billboard Campaign ... Support Him Over His Felony Convictions
I like this.

I am not as pessimistic as others. I believe there is a current of democracy that is underlying this election. Yes, there is still a problem with the geriatric election - between an 81 year old and a 78 year old - but I think, when push comes to shove, this election will end up as 2020 did. I think that the horror that was the Donald Trump Presidency will inspire a democratic turnout. The stakes are just too high.

I think the prospect of electing a convict is just going to be too much for too many voters. We will see how soon it begins to affect the polling, but I think it is there.What the Polls Are Saying After Trump’s Conviction
(New York Magazine).

"Donald Trump is now a convicted felon, but what impact that has on the 2024 presidential race remains to be seen. The first indicators of how voters might respond will be the results of polls conducted soon after a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records. While it’s worth keeping in mind the many potential flaws of early polling following a major news event, here’s what those polls say so far (this post will be updated as more poll results come out)."
....
Possible insights from YouGov’s post-verdict snap poll
The national Daily Questions survey was conducted online Thursday among 3,040 adults. Per YouGov’s summary of the results, “Americans’ immediate reactions are polarized along party lines, with 86 percent of Democrats but just 15 percent of Republicans believing the former president is guilty of felony charges,” with independents “nearly twice as likely to think he’s guilty as to think he’s not.” But overall, 50 percent approved of the conviction.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents also said it was at least probable Trump has ever committed crimes, but almost as many didn’t think he will ever go to prison, regardless:

63% say he probably or definitely won’t go to prison, compared to 20% who say he probably or definitely will. Democrats are the most likely political grouping to expect Trump to go to prison, but even among them, 33% say he will be imprisoned and 54% say he won’t.
....
A Morning Consult poll finds majority approval of the verdict
The Morning Consult survey on Friday found that 54 percent of voters approved (“strongly” or “somewhat”) of the verdict and that Trump committed a crime. In addition, 15 percent of Republican voters, 8 percent of Trump supporters, and 49 percent of independents thought he should end his presidential bid. (Morning Consult also notes the GOP percentage is in line with the number of potential Republican primary voters who still supported Nikki Haley at the end of her campaign.)

Regarding the possible sentences for Trump, a solid majority of survey respondents — 69 percent — thought Trump should be fined as punishment. Another 49 percent thought probation would be best. About half opposed sentencing Trump to prison time, and 44 percent thought he should go to jail.

Seven in ten voters indicated they wanted the other Trump trials resolved before Election Day.
_____

Now, snap polls are not particularly instructive, but there are indications that the biggest effect will be with independent voters.

Of most interest to me is this: Trump has not increased his voter share. That share was not enough to win him the popular vote in either of his previous elections, and the swing-state voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Michigan also have the specter of local prosecutions of 2020 election fraudsters.

And, of course, there is the issue of abortion. Arizona, Nevada,Montana (Jon Tester is running for reelection to the Senate), Missouri, among others, will have ballot initiatives on the ballot to protect abortion, and it has already affected some other States where one would not have expected so much support.

This election will be determined by turnout. When push comes to shove, I think Democrats and progressives will be inspired to turn out. Also, the Biden campaign has a better ground game and is not hampered by staggering criminal defense bills. While the Democrats are defending more Senate seats than Republicans, I think the wind is at those candidates' backs.

"Sloppy" Steve Bannon remanded to jail on July 1, 2024. It's about time! Dude was convicted two years ago!

I tend to believe has, right now, the votes that he is going to get and I its gonna be difficult to find any more. I also think there are a lot of votes just floating around awaiting use. If I am right I also suspect that your polls will, eventually show something like that but, then again maybe not (being a bit careful due to an inability to have a clue).

I also think that the debates continue to be closer and closer. I also suspect that there are a lot of folks awaiting the debates before they make their decision. I will be particularly interested in what each candidate will have to say about the other that actually will contain something true about the debate itself. I fully expect, for instance, that Trump will accuse Biden of all sorts of things that will absolutely be false. One of the things about Trump is that one can always be sure the man will lie as its what he does. I suspect even many if those who support him will even expect that to happen. I also believe that many who support Trump admire his ability to lie. I realize this is crazy but I actually believe that is a fact. When it comes to what those supporting Trump it is, for me, very difficult to actually believe what the supporters say. The simple fact is that its just the way it is. I find it interesting in that there is a lot of stuff, when it comes to politics, that just make no sense but still exist. I think its actually part of the deal.

Anyway, I expect not much of a difference in anything until after the next debate. Then, I expect, changes - we will all see and, perhaps, a lot are going to make decisions that will not be understood even by those others that support and don't tell anybody why (its a secret).

part of the deal - I guess?

Well, we are starting to come closer and closer to not only the debates but the actual elections as well. Trump is getting better and better talking about who, and what, he is going after. This is, hopefully, and he is scaring the hell out of those that pay attention which may, in the long run, be a good thing? In other words he is no longer the fuzzy guy that's fun to watch. He is, obviously, sure of being elected as well so feels he has the voters and he can goto work telling everybody what they are waiting for.

As far as the debates go I think they may make a difference. We will see about that in close to 2 weeks. I really want to see if they actually have control over the microphones (which would be a miracle). Remember too, the hard core folks, who have their minds REALLY made up will also be watching the debates as well. If Trump keeps it up I think there might be a chance to change a couple of minds.

In any case we will all watch the 'debates' with bated breath and have much to talk about the day after.

Oh, My hope is showing, not too much, but a little bit. Apologies.........

You would think you're right on this one. The problem is that those that are Trumpites simply don't care, not even a little bit. Its part of the deal. I have often wondered how many of the true believers have experience with the law and prisons given their lack of concern. I suspect that they have Trump down as the Bad Ass Guy Who Gets Things Done! He may have had problems with the law but its just part of what makes him great!

I could go on and on but, basically, I betcha you understand.

Unlike previous debates, I think this one may have an impact. The doubts that people have about each of the candidates will be highlighted there. Trump, as you noted, is become more strident in his fascist sentiments and retribution narrative. That, I think, is turning off independents and the rump "reasonable Republicans". His convictions are also having an impact. Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early (538/abc)
"Four pollsters have already conducted national polls of the 2024 presidential election entirely since Trump was found guilty, and a handful more have asked about the verdict but not the election explicitly. They show that Americans are taking the verdict seriously, and it may be giving President Joe Biden a small boost in support. However, it’s still too early to draw any definitive conclusions." I think, like Trump's corrosive effect on the social scene, this is going to drain enthusiasm from support.

I also think the narrative of Biden's age is still present - he does walk old, and his articulation has never been sharp, but is affected no question - but his mind is sharp and his wit is present. Of course, the most important aspects are, his heart is in the right place, his policies are effective, and he is the opposite of a fascist. (Even though his surviving son is the subject of a political prosecution, he is putting his faith in an impartial jury instead of bombast, abuse of the system, and denigrating all of the participants.) That, I think, will come out in the debate. I just hope he doesn't stumble on the way to the lectern.

I am still wedded to the concept of democracy and that seems to be coming through in the undercard events: Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind (538/abc)

"Today, Democratic women make up 41 percent and Republican women make up just 15 percent of their respective parties' members of Congress. And of the 12 female governors currently serving, eight are Democrats."
....
"As we have for past primaries, 538 is collecting a trove of demographic and political information (such as endorsements, race and ethnicity, and gender) for every major-party candidate running for Senate, House or governor in the 2024 election cycle. This update takes a look at where women have run, and where women have won, in these primaries through May 21.* Our analysis of this data shows that the overall share of women running and winning in primaries thus far in 2024 is slightly lower than it was at the close of the 2022 primary cycle. But there's a notable partisan split: Democrats are nearly keeping pace with the previous cycle, while Republicans seem to be passing up opportunities to add more women to their ranks."

I think the decision in Dobbs is having a significant impact. In addition, I think that there continues to be an upswell of democratic feeling - protection of our basic standards - that will continue to propel Democratic candidates in the general election. “We don’t want just the veneer of a democracy” (PBS)

In 2016 I could never understand the love affair folks had with Trump. I understood why they viewed Hillary in a bad light, but love Trump. No way. 8 years later, I still can’t fathom why so many put Trump on the pedestal. Again, I understand the part of a lot of folks not liking nor wanting Biden. That is normal politics for a sitting president with a very low job approval number.

Your explanation jgw probably comes the closest. But outside of the tax cuts, Trump didn’t accomplish a thing. At least legislative wise.

Agreed. Now Mitt Romney who is disgusted by Trump is now saying the Brigg's NY prosecution was wrong to do. What's with these people?

Hiding payments to a porn star for sex and disguising them as a legal business expense is fraud.

Sure, I do. But that doesn’t change the numbers. Regardless of the reason, which is why I said call it what you want. In the end it will be right around 93% of republicans voting for Trump. Loyalty to Trump or loyalty to the republican party, doesn’t matter, their votes count the same. Same with Biden. 49% of those voting for Biden are doing so because they’re mostly against Trump while 49% are mostly for Biden. Question 15. With Trump, 72% of those voting for Trump are mostly for Trump, 26% mostly against Biden. Question 16. Still regardless of the reason, their votes count the same. I love these nuances which probably doesn’t mean a thing in the final outcome. A vote is a vote is a vote. I do however like to find the reasons behind the vote.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_5ePXwWM.pdf

Here’s something else, 15% of republicans view Trump negatively or unfavorably. Yet only 3% of republicans say they’ll vote for Biden. 12 of that 15% will still vote for Trump even if they think Trump is a scumbag. Reminds me of that old political saying, my party’s worst candidate is always better then your party’s best candidate.