I’ve been saying all along that the projected losses for this year’s midterms for the democrats make no historical sense when looking at Biden’s low approval numbers at around 40%. Hence, I put the history in writing. Here’s a list of presidents whose approval rating was around 40% for a midterm election. President, year, approval percentage, house seats lost, senate seats lost. Historical average for 4 presidents excluding Biden since his midterm hasn’t happened yet. Approval average, 39.25% house seats lost 48.5, senate seats lost 6.
Biden 2022 41% ?????? projected loss of 12-15 house seats, gain of 1 senate seat as of 1 May
Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats
Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats
G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats
Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats
I keep coming back to this as it has me frustrated, flabbergasted, astonished at the projected numbers for Biden and company. There’s no historical reference to place or compare this year’s numbers to. Fact is, they make no sense to me. A red wave should be in the offering. So far, it isn’t. Is it today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship? Is it Trump or something else I can’t get my head around? Or a combination of many things?
Or possibility more time is needed for the projections to catch up with Biden and company’s low approval numbers? Time seems to be a good answer. No candidates have been chosen yet; the primaries haven’t begun. Redistricting isn’t completed. Time could be an answer, then again, maybe not. Only time will tell. In the meanwhile, I’ll try to figure out why all of this bothers me so much. Truth be told, it’s not normal. Then again, we’re not living in normal times, are we?
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