It’s been three weeks since the leaked draft on abortion. Finally, a bit of movement toward the democrats. But only on RCP and it was but a single point, 538 doesn’t show any movement at all. Impossible to tell if this slight movement in RCP’s numbers was caused by the abortion issue or is just the normal ups and downs of polling. Probably more the latter. Remember, this is dynamic and changes all the time. The fact we’ve had so little movement over this time period reinforces my theory of the abortion issue being baked in. Inflation is still the elephant in the room. At least when it comes to voting in the midterms.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
9 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.4-43.2 Republican, 538 averages 45.4-42.8 Republican
16 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.8-43.3 Republican, 538 averages 45.5-43.0 Republican
23 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.5-43.4 Republican, 538 averages 45.0-42.7 Republican

21-day difference, RCP Republicans -1.0, Democrats +0.9. 538 Republicans -0.2, Democrats -0.1.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

We haven’t seen any significant movement on President’s overall job performance since the leak either. I doubt you will. Whatever issue becomes hot for a while probably won’t make a difference. Rising prices tops the list of most important issues, everything else is secondary including the abortion issue.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
9 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 42.3% approve, 52.9% disapprove
16 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.6% approve, 53.4% disapprove
23 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.0% approve, 54.3% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

21-day difference, approval -0.7, disapproval +1.4

Perhaps the best way to look at this is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats between 1 May to 23 May. But keep in mind, Kansas, Missouri and Florida completed their redistricting during this time period.
1 May - 29 Democratic seats, 10 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category
23 - May 36 Democratic seats, 12 Republican seats. An increase of 7 seats for the Democrats over these past 3 weeks and an increase of 2 for the Republicans. If the Democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering war, creating 10 more democratic leaning districts than the GOP was able to create Republican leaning districts. You might be looking at a red wave election instead of losses of 15-18 seats.

Conclusion, the leaked draft had no detrimental effect on the Republican Party’s chances of a good midterm election. That the abortion issue is baked in regardless of which side you’re on or how hot an issue it was or becomes. Inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores remains the number one, hottest issue in determining how one will vote this midterm. I don’t think any other issue will replace it unless we get into a hot war with Russia.