Number wise, here you go.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/Georgia.html

I’d throw them all out except the two April polls. Average, Walker by 0.5 of a point. It’s a pure tossup at this point. The two party’s affiliation strength is now about even in Georgia. A whole bunch from the Northeast has moved down here in the last 20 years bringing their politics with them. That being so, this senate race will be decided by independents. Today, they’re as split as the strength of the two major parties.

Walkers wife beatings and other proclivities won’t make a difference in how those who identify as R’s and D’s vote. Neither will Walkers football exploits of bringing Georgia a national championship. Trump’s word and backing is now irrelevant. That backing may help Warnock as independents still don’t like Trump much. It may come down to how many independents still view Walker the hero of a national championship and how much his wife beating bothers them. Which one wins out among independents, that is impossible to tell today.

I do think Warnock has the advantage today regardless of the 0.5 of a point the polls show. Warnock is experienced, he’s been through two general election campaigns, he’s a political pro and better yet, the incumbent with all the perks that brings. Walker is the rookie, basically shielded from the public during the primaries, no debates, no nothing. He’s the weaker of the two candidates, the GOP hopes Walkers football exploits will over come his weaknesses, especially among independents. Most independents who will vote in November haven’t paid much if any attention to this race yet. Too early for them.

Numbers aside, if the election were held today, my gut feeling is Warnock would win. He could win big or it could be close, but Warnock would win. When you have about half of independents not even knowing there’s a Georgia senate election this November, anything can happen. The knowledgeable half went and voted in the primaries, the non-knowledgeable half, who knows? Best I can do today.

You can bet I’ll be keeping the closest eye and keep on doing deep research into independents. For me, Republicans and Democrats are irrelevant, I know how they’ll vote, they aren’t going to decide this race. Nor are they going to decide the governorship or secretary of state or any other statewide election.