I don't think the Senate picture presented is accurate, frankly. I think Johnson and Oz are both going to lose, giving Ds 2 more pickups. Masto is a wild card. My bet is 54-46 D Senate, barring any wild fluctuations. I expect to see the effects of the January 6 hearings slowly shifting views in purple Districts, few as there are. The effect of Dobbs is only now beginning to be felt. Count on women to repeat 2018 results. They're fired up.
The House is still likely to swing, but it's less of a sure thing than 2 months ago. History, geography and vote suppression favor the GOP.
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