Capitol Hill Blue Forums Thread Like Summary - Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios (BBC )
The BBC piece provides 5 scenarios - and avoids the 6th. Short War; Long war; European War; Diplomatic solution; Putin ouster- but ignores the possibility of WW3.

Their conclusion is hopeful: "These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. It will not return to the status quo ante. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. European attitudes to security will be transformed. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place."

Personally, I don't think there is any sugarcoat for this: Europe is at war, and as long as Putin is in place, peace is unlikely. What say y'all?

Can't believe I have to say this, but words actually have meanings.
There is no "de facto" except in the mind of Putin, who is approaching the point where he's just about
ready to say that ANYTHING short of falling down in abject fealty at his feet constitues an act of war against him.

Someone in Ukraine said the WORD "NATO" and Putin is having a rage-gasm over it.

Except, the truth is, you're either a member of NATO or you're not.
If Ukraine WAS a NATO member, the amount of time needed to set up a no-fly zone would be less than 24 hours.
If they were a NATO member, then NATO would already be IN COUNTRY...they're not.

You don't get to just say stuff and suddenly it's true.
Ukraine isn't a NATO member.
It's not even in the EU, although that is NOW probably a done deal but that's Putin's fault.

Look, he's probably going to wind up GETTING total control over his "now independent" Donetsk and Luhansk
oblasts, but it's going to cost him way more than before the invasion.
He's probably not going to get much else...had he held off, he might have gotten a better deal.
The more he digs his heels in, the more the entire free world resists.

I really don't expect you to change your views on anything, but know this:

This isn't just America taking a stand anymore...it never really was in the first place.
A cursory look at all of Europe should prove that point.
It's not even just about America's military either, or Europe's.
It's about the PEOPLE, and again, a cursory look at the people's reactions all over Europe should prove that point.

By going full tilt on Ukraine, Putin has galvanized public opinion against him.
He's NEVER going to see a return to even grudging acceptance.

That's not even me talking, it's what everyone in the free world is SEEING...right here...right now.

The "All (or huge majority) of Ukraine consists of Nazi/antisemite/fascists" theory is beginning to sound a lot like "All Democrats are communists".
It reeks of conspiracy theory nut-f**kery.

Thank you.
"A significant amount, however, do exist where it matters, with backing of oligarchs, to cause no end of trouble" ⬆⬆⬆ ALSO right here in the USA.
Incoming SecDef Lloyd Austin even made it one of his big ticket issues when he took office.
I've known about it for well over fifteen years, and I only say that because it never occurred to me prior to that.
One day we're in the car dealer picking out Karen's new van and the salesman was trying to score points because like Karen, his son is a vet.
So he breaks out the scrapbook and there's his shirtless son sporting SS lightning bolts, Aryan crosses and swastikas all over his body, a veritable inkfest.
Difficult not to puke right then and there.

Zelensky election, the people of Ukraine spoke, in numbers significant enough to show that, while they are grudgingly tolerating the neo-nazi element in their midst,
they're clearly not overjoyed and, should Zelensky prevail, I expect we will see some housecleaning.

Zelensky's "MOVE" to join NATO? Near as I can tell even the most ardent interpretation of Zelensky's intent comes with the understanding
that NATO membership was never promised. Hinted at? Maybe, but even the most starry eyed in our policy tanks recognize the difficulty of NATO against the doorstep
and I think the NATO angle is overblown and overhyped as much as ivermectin was.
And sorry but I also think Putin was going to go this route NATO or NO NATO because just the fact of a democratic Ukraine was more than he was willing to tolerate.
Donald was attempting to PULL US OUT of NATO...and Putin expected it was a fait accompli in Donnie's second term.
Now that that's gone, Vlad is super pissed.

Is the United States/NATO to blame for Euromaidan?
No.
Is the Russia-Ukraine conflict today just about balance of power?
No.
Is this a proxy fight between a democratic West (including Ukraine) and a dictatorial fascist Russian despot with dreams of global conquest?
Yes.