Capitol Hill Blue Forums Thread Like Summary - Bucha Horrors Test Europe in Putin’s War

Bucha Horrors Test Europe in Putin's War (Bloomberg)

Every war is remembered in history by places, even hundreds of years later. For Ukraine, the two names now known around the world are Mariupol and Bucha.

The eastern port of Mariupol has been under siege for weeks, with those left in the ruins of the city scrounging for shelter, food and medicine.

The northern town of Bucha, on the outskirts of the capital, Kyiv, has become the center of claims of war crimes committed by Russian troops. Pictures of unarmed dead civilians, some with hands tied behind their backs, have ignited global outrage and calls for more sanctions on Moscow, which says the images are staged.

As Ukraine retakes territory formerly held by Russia, the US and European allies will be faced, directly, with evidence that will test their resolve to remain outside the conflict. Personally, I think we've been too timid by half.

We've been aware of the atrocities and war crimes for weeks, but have been content with half-measures. If "we" believe in the defense of democracy and the western world order, we should be willing to put up.

It's fear. And it's for a very good reason since Putin promised early on to rain down nuclear destruction on anyone who defied him.

President Biden made it clear from the start that if we crossed certain lines it would be the beginning of WW3 and no one is really certain whether mutually assured destruction is acceptable to Vlad Putin.

So, yeah, the timidity is fairly well-founded. And I'm pretty sure Putin knew from the start that our hands would be tied and whatever he did would be met with the timidity we've seen.

I don't think he counted on the backlash though. The outrage.

Atrocities and war crimes.

If Putin had gone looking for a Waterloo he couldn't have picked a better one.

General Wesley Clark is 100% correct.
"This is for all the marbles."

I thought it was pretty interesting when the Ukrainian president suggested that, given the inability of the United Nation to take of the security of nations, perhaps it should just shut down as that was supposed to be what it is there for.

And shrinking fast: "Without question. Russia's GDP is projected to shrink by double digits this year. And this year alone, the economic shock that's being projected will wipe out the past 15 years of economic gains in Russia. I mean, Russia is descending into economic and financial isolation." Daleep Singh, White House Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics. Think about that. How were you doing, personally, 15 years ago, in 2007?

Sperbank, which holds one third of all the assets of Russia is now frozen out of the world market. Imagine if Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank were frozen. That's the level of pain being inflicted on Russia.

Now, the Ruble has bounced back, but that is because of artificial supports in Russia. That can't last. Further, the sanctions have created a hole for "sovereign debt" to be paid from outside assets (Russia holds/held $640 billion in assets in the US and Europe), which was allowed to protect third parties from Russian default. Again, that fund is being depleted rapidly.

JPMorgan estimates that international investors own 22 percent of Russian companies’ foreign currency debt. That's a chunk, and will depress some investment assets, but it is far from risking widespread default - especially since exposure to Russian assets has plummeted since the 2014 round of sanctions. The risks were deemed too high by most investors.

It will take time, but Russia's economy is headed for a total collapse, along the lines of the Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s.