Capitol Hill Blue Forums Thread Like Summary - Abortion

I am putting this here because I think that the Abortion question is based on religion and little else, certainly not facts.


There are indications that legal abortions reduced the number of unwanted children which, in turn, reduced crime, from 1970's to 1990's approximately 20% Questions and studies of unwanted children fills volumes I offer just one possible result of abortion:
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_201975.pdf

From 2011 to 2017 Legal abortions reduced by 19%
https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_201975.pdf

Banning abortions would increase the maternal death rate by 21% or more.
https://www.colorado.edu/today/2021...d-boost-maternal-mortality-double-digits

The United States rates 127th out of 185 countries
Americal has more maternal deaths than countries such as Turnkey, Russia, Uruguay, Latvia, etc.
https://www.nationmaster.com/nmx/ranking/lifetime-risk-of-maternal-death

If you like statistics www.nationmster.com is a really great place for them about just about everything. NationMaster was setup for students to use.

I have been giving abortion a bit of thought. The number of abortions has been steadily dropping since it was made legal years ago which I have always thought was interesting. I think it may be due to better education when it comes to evil sex (a personal belief based on nothing). Unwanted children is a peskey one. There is a lot about them. They have very hard times and many turn to crime. Banning abortions also means that many more maternals will die.

The simple fact is that banning abortions doesn't mean reducing abortions (apparently quite the reverse) as abortions will continue but many will cause problems, death, unwanted children, and possibly even more crime. Apparently the Republicans are all for banning abortions which I find very strange because of the costs of doing that. A lot of abortions happen because the maternal one has no money, no husband, no job, etc. When forced to bear the baby in question I suspect gov will have to pay for the birth, the taking care of, the education of, etc. of the baby in question which may get a lot more expensive for tax payers as well. When one adds it all up banning abortions becomes a really taxing experience for tab payers. Given that Republicans are, at least by supposition, don't like taxes but supporting abortion will increase taxes.

In other words the banning of abortions will make the goddites very happy as it will please the lord. The simple fact is that its not gonna stop abortions just create more problems for gov to fix and I have little faith that it gonna get fixed. The only real thing that will happen is that more die young, more unwanted, possibly criminal, children, etc.

The simple fact is that banning abortions fix nothing and make a mess of things. In other words banning abortion is a really bad idea no matter how you look at it.

Oh, in passing, I guess I should also mention that amongst those who want to ban abortion are the males. They are quite prominant when it comes to abortions. Nobody seems to notice that one which is kind of interesting all on its own.

Just a few thoughts...........

Well, the polls all say about 70% of Americans want abortion to remain accessible. I think this is going to happen in state after state: Any time abortion access comes up to a vote, it's going to win. Instead of ending abortion nationwide, as some want, the Republican agenda will be thwarted. It's kind of sad for them. They destroyed their Party just so they can capture the judiciary, thinking that would be a long term win. But the Supreme Court can't overcome the ballot box.

Of course it will take a while, and have some setbacks along the way. But in the long run, they will lose. Alienating so many non-White, non-male, non-straight groups is a losing strategy. That "Big Tent" is getting smaller every day. And it doesn't help that half the people dying in the US from Covid are unvaccinated now, and the anti-vax position has been strongly taken up by political conservatives.

I would expect the same group of women that did the deed in Kansas also understand that the Republicans are responsible for hugely offensive stop abortion extremists. I also suspect that they will wait for them to come up for re-election at which time they will take them all out. These women are not screwing around! The female race seems to be in another period of giving a damn about the female condition. Hope they can get it done before they go back to sleep.

The religious thing is also pretty interesting. The Catholics are not the only ones in trouble over missing sheep. Same with the non-Catholics as well. In my small town there are at least 5 abandoned non-catholic churches either for sale or sold for other purposes. The Catholic church has been blessed with a priest from Africa but he will go away and they will be back to no priest time. Same thing in Europe where the big basilicas are now owned by the town, for turisting, because there are not enough faithful to support them. What we seem to have left, in America, are seriously extremist white Christians.

Interesting times.............

I really have no idea what the Supremes will actually do. I suspect the problem will be the basis of the current Abortion thing - privacy. As far as I can tell it was a right to privacy that made abortions legal. Now, my question is going to be whether we will lose any privacy should they make Abortions illegal. I have wondered, for years, why they didn't legislate the entire thing instead of relying on the Supremes to leave it alone. Should they continue then if we think that Abortions are pesky just wait when folks are told that they no longer have any right of privacy in anything.

THEN its gonna get real interesting!

Decent Americans must not remain silent in the face of Christian versions of Sharia Law from Republican states and SCOTUS, or next year's "Mother's Day" will become "Forced Motherhood Day"

Republicans are only forecast to win the House by a narrow margin and to hold the Senate with a possible pick up of one or two seats. All of President Biden's nominees will be confirmed, should there be any.

I don't count on numbers for my predictions, Like you, I look at all the available information, headlines, news blips, celebrity divorces, and popular trends, then I build models in my head of the most likely possible outcomes. I used to look at the world through blue-tinted glasses, I used to think there was some deep untapped well of left leaners among non-affiliated.

When I eliminated that from the models my predictions began to fall more in line with reality..

No, what's ironic is that they decided protesting on the lawns of doctors who provided abortions was within the 1st amendment rights of the protestors.

It's ironic that SCOTUS and their families need "protection" from losing their privacy when they're about to take-away the privacy that women have over their own bodies.

We are talking about abortion. There are SOME Republicans that want no exceptions and some that don't. Right now the no exception Republicans seem to be in charge but that can change. Republicans, I think, determine much not on personal belief but on what can help them keep their jobs and nothing else. They support Trump, not because they love him but because he controls how the base votes. Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be more interested in sticking to their beliefs rather than winning the next election. Democrats tend to win when their beliefs appeal to the voters at large. Republicans win when they are right about what they think the voters want.

Oh, in passing. I think that compromise means giving up something for some reason. I don't think everything needs to be passed with somebody giving up anything. Sometimes, I suspect, two parties can actually agree about something. I also think that there are levels of agreement from complete dis-agreement to happy agreement. In between there are probably lots of levels.

So, when you speak about what a Republican believes I suspect one might be very wrong. When you speak about what a Democrat will do to get elected I doubt that isn't the point as far as they are concerned.

Could be wrong but ............

Nope, compromise means both sides get some of what they want.

Of course I do, but you do any work in the real world and that 0.141562 is going to bite you in the ass bigtime.

It’s been three weeks since the leaked draft on abortion. Finally, a bit of movement toward the democrats. But only on RCP and it was but a single point, 538 doesn’t show any movement at all. Impossible to tell if this slight movement in RCP’s numbers was caused by the abortion issue or is just the normal ups and downs of polling. Probably more the latter. Remember, this is dynamic and changes all the time. The fact we’ve had so little movement over this time period reinforces my theory of the abortion issue being baked in. Inflation is still the elephant in the room. At least when it comes to voting in the midterms.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
9 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.4-43.2 Republican, 538 averages 45.4-42.8 Republican
16 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.8-43.3 Republican, 538 averages 45.5-43.0 Republican
23 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.5-43.4 Republican, 538 averages 45.0-42.7 Republican

21-day difference, RCP Republicans -1.0, Democrats +0.9. 538 Republicans -0.2, Democrats -0.1.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

We haven’t seen any significant movement on President’s overall job performance since the leak either. I doubt you will. Whatever issue becomes hot for a while probably won’t make a difference. Rising prices tops the list of most important issues, everything else is secondary including the abortion issue.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
9 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 42.3% approve, 52.9% disapprove
16 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.6% approve, 53.4% disapprove
23 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.0% approve, 54.3% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

21-day difference, approval -0.7, disapproval +1.4

Perhaps the best way to look at this is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats between 1 May to 23 May. But keep in mind, Kansas, Missouri and Florida completed their redistricting during this time period.
1 May - 29 Democratic seats, 10 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category
23 - May 36 Democratic seats, 12 Republican seats. An increase of 7 seats for the Democrats over these past 3 weeks and an increase of 2 for the Republicans. If the Democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering war, creating 10 more democratic leaning districts than the GOP was able to create Republican leaning districts. You might be looking at a red wave election instead of losses of 15-18 seats.

Conclusion, the leaked draft had no detrimental effect on the Republican Party’s chances of a good midterm election. That the abortion issue is baked in regardless of which side you’re on or how hot an issue it was or becomes. Inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores remains the number one, hottest issue in determining how one will vote this midterm. I don’t think any other issue will replace it unless we get into a hot war with Russia.

I'm for switching everything over to mail-in voting and putting the post office in charge of it.

Re-district everything by zip code.

It's a political football. Like gun control, healthcare and other political footballs that are always getting kicked around.

I know Republican women who rallied for abortion rights. But they will still vote Republican because it isn't a deal-breaker for them. They didn't like Trump, but he wasn't a deal-breaker for them until perhaps, they tired of him and voted for Biden but Republican down the ballot...

By the same token, I imagine there are pro-life Democrats(like Catholics) who would rather Dems were more pro-life but it isn't a deal-breaker for them either.

Both parties take absolutist stances, most people are somewhere in between.

Perhaps women will need to adapt to the current political situation just as women(and men) have adapted to survive under all sorts of harsh conditions in the past...

Of course my anti-anti-abortion predictions are not for blue states. Believe it or not, I'm not a moron, and I assume neither is anybody here. What I'm predicting is that red states that have already passed those no exception laws in case Roe is overturned are going to be so hostile to women of child bearing age, they are going to change their voting patterns, move to a blue state, refuse to do anything that could get them pregnant, etc. eventually. Won't happen right away. Women have to start dying in large numbers for them to see their state is trying to kill them. Once they do figure that out, they will do something about that. Probably not by November, but perhaps by 2024.

I think historical analyses are not as useful when a million of us die, one Party attempts a coup, and then goes to war against young women and school children.

I think in this you are completely wrong. The protests will be in the Red States (less so in the Blue), and it is simple logic - those are the States where trigger laws will occur. Your assumption is that "Red States" are homogenous. They are not. There are bastions of Blue in virtually every State of the Union. Any State with a city over 100,000 population is more likely than not one of those bastions. Moreover, none of the States is devoid of Democratic voters. One can look at the protests that occurred over George Floyd's murder and have a pretty clear picture of the scope of what will be occurring. They won't be violent, because they will be led by women. The counterprotesters will be violent. They always are.

Oh, they paid attention alright. And they refused to believe any of it.

We've discussed here before that the Republican voting base seems to operate in a different reality.

We were in the throes of the pandemic, there was no normal campaign, tension was running high, QAnon conspiracies flying, Donald Trump lying...it was an ugly time.

Then Biden won in a popular vote landslide. And they simply refused to believe it.

It had to be rigged...

Turns out it wasn't rigged.

No, you didn't. You've said it was baked in from the first and you're right. So even though it doesn't show up in the polls a few more Dems will show up to vote. A few independents will vote for human rights over the economy, maybe a few Republican women will switch their vote in protest.

No matter who votes how though, the Supreme Court decision will stand and the Supreme Court will remain solidly conservative. Pro-life factions will need to build their case from the bottom up again.

The interesting thing now, is the lawsuits that will surge in states with "no exception" abortion laws. Republicans in those states have overreached. When a lawsuit reaches a state Supreme Court, dollars to donuts they say there must be exceptions. There is also a federal civil rights aspect to forcing a woman to continue a pregnancy that will kill her. Rape, incest, and life of the mother have been the standards for many decades.

That’s an interesting point. Overreach is something both parties are good at attempting. But on this, I don’t think the overturning of ROE will affect this year’s midterms much. It may in a couple of senate races, helping the Democrats maintain control there. But it won’t prevent the loss of the House. We have inflation, rising prices which many people, especially independents place ahead of abortion, Trump, everything else, all other issues this year. But give it two additional years, give it time to sink in, to live with the results of the SCOTUS decision along with what you stated, abortion will be big in 2024 especially if inflation eases and we have a more normal economy. 2024 could have the makings of a big Democratic year, if they don’t screw it up.

It is the day when Americans VOTE in elections and elections get overturned (successfully) because one party simply does not like the results, and they get away with it.

via Kansas City Star

Kansas voters have spoke loudly Tuesday by voting “No” on a ballot measure that would have removed language in the state constitution protecting abortion rights.

In Tuesday’s elections, Kansans went to the polls to decide whether to protect the state’s existing constitutional right to an abortion.

Guess abortion and protecting a woman's right to have a say over her own body really is on the minds of Americans - contrary to what we're being told.

If anti-choice can't win in Kansas...

There is only so long any political party can buck public sentiment, but I don't think it will impact midterms as much as Dems would like and the GOP fears. Senate races, yes, but Districts and local elections are defined by more prosaic concerns and gerrymandering will out.

Pro-choice sentiments prevail in general and large populations, but there are pockets of zealots all around the country, and many of them are Congressional Districts.

I hate to disagree as I agree with the argument.

Republican state legislatures will not allow referendums on abortion to be conducted. They know it is a losing proposition. As long as THEY HAVE THE POWER (and it is all about power and control) abortions will be banned in those states.

Like I've pointed out before, any time you involve religion in the law, it's an absolute mess. That's because laws are all about equity, and religions all have their own ideas about what is right and proper. It says right in our constitution that the government can't favor any religion over another. So the only legal thing to do is for the government to ignore them all (since it's impossible to make the law agree with them all). But this Supreme Court seems intent on breaking as much as possible.

That "First Breath" meme was Catholic dogma for many centuries, as their theologians believed the soul entered the body at the first breath. Personally, I like the belief of some Jewish groups these days that abortion should be permitted until the fetus graduates from medical or law school.

I think Independents actually could vote, because there was something on the ballot besides partisan primary candidates they could vote on. But they usually don't vote in primaries because they don't get to vote for partisan candidates.

Between "Putin Love Fest", stolen election lies, January 6th coup attempt, Roe, and stealing top secret docs, I think the GOP has figured out how to lose the mid-terms. Kansas and Alaska elections are strong indicators.

Women are not about to forget that they could possibly go to jail for exercising control over their own body, depending on their state.