Capitol Hill Blue
Posted By: chunkstyle Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 01:44 PM
Cuz Ojeda is...

Although I'm a bit concerned with having a militarization of the party happening I think he will compliment Sanders authentic populist message and force the narrow band of accepted conversation open. To have alternatives to the "third way" thinking that reigns over the party.
We saw how the party was opposed to a diversity of thought in the 2016 election, preferring instead to hold a coronation of the 'annointed one'. I truly hope that the primary is a deluge of candidates making the management of and control over the primary much more difficult for the mandarins.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 03:48 PM
Ok a possible candidate.

But, I have a couple of questions. If he retired with 24 years, why was he only a Major?

Well, the above questioned answered; He was prior enlisted before entering OCS.

Why do some of his words sound frighteningly similar to a recent Presidential candidate?

Does he have a prosthetic leg?

Not looking for answers from anybody here. The questions will be answered in time: before I make my decision as to who to support for the primaries and the race.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 06:16 PM
Both Sanders, Trump and now Ojeda are speaking to the reality that most Americans are experiencing whereas the centrist Democratic right wing refuses to acknowledge, must less deal with, that reality. : 'America is already great!'.

I guess we have to decide which is being a phoney populist and whose being sincere. As always, who's benefiting.

Leg?
Military rank?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 06:29 PM
Who? I've never heard of him.

Name recognition isn't everything but it's something. Beto O'Rourke became a household name during the midterms. Ojeda didn't exactly set the world on fire with his no nonsense militarized liberal message.

Didn't we have a ex military democrat running in 2016? One with much better name recognition nationwide? I can't recall his name right now because guys like him are so easily forgotten.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 07:34 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Who? I've never heard of him.

Name recognition isn't everything but it's something. Beto O'Rourke became a household name during the midterms. Ojeda didn't exactly set the world on fire with his no nonsense militarized liberal message.

Didn't we have a ex military democrat running in 2016? One with much better name recognition nationwide? I can't recall his name right now because guys like him are so easily forgotten.

Your referring to that tall glass of room temperature centrist water that was reporting for duty?
Yeah I forgot what he was for, too.
All I can remember is he fell off a boat in a place called Veetnam.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 09:41 PM
"Kerry headed into that summer running an ad that highlighted his military service, showed him in fatigues, or posing with his arm around John McCain. The ad boasted about how he’d broken with his party to support a balanced budget. He was no down-the-line Democrat, not this guy. He was almost Republican!

Once Kerry became the nominee, though, Republicans easily blew up Kerry’s supposed strength with the lurid Swift Boat campaign — it’s amazing how that stuff works with weak candidates, but sleaze campaigns like the Bill Ayers or Jeremiah Wright business bounce off the likes of Barack Obama."


Well this is timely
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/18 11:00 PM
Actually I was talking about Jim Webb.

Ojeda voted for Trump. Says he's never voted for a Democrat for president. He's a military minded authoritarian with a new leftish outlook. Fidel Castro was like that once.

Nope. This dog aint gonna fly.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 01:37 AM
I think the democratic leadership has done a wonderful job of blurring the lines between republicans and democrats in their traditional roles. They've had no problems running garbage barge candidates, conviently reflagged from republican to democrat as long as they had the money to buy in to the club. Many a good progressive got primaried by the DNC in this way.
Likewise they've also had a love affair with veterans for as long as what? Carter maybe.
Ojeda may not make it but what he does understand is the power of campaigning. Ditto with Sanders. Hence the insurgency of bold progressive issues that candidates felt empowered to run on in this mid-term.
Hopefully Ojeda will push the door open even more. I'll take bold inclusive populism over politely served neoliberal fascism any day.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 02:52 AM
So you'll choose the Trump voter over Beto?

Leopards seldom change their spots. Ojeda is a conservative. Better I guess than any Democrat when you hate Democrats.

Come to think of it...I've never heard you say a single thing bad about Republicans...You always deflect everything to make Democrats seem worse...

are you a troll of some sort?

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 03:12 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
So you'll choose the Trump voter over Beto?

Leopards seldom change their spots. Ojeda is a conservative. Better I guess than any Democrat when you hate Democrats.

Come to think of it...I've never heard you say a single thing bad about Republicans...You always deflect everything to make Democrats seem worse...

are you a troll of some sort?

I expect republicans to act as republicans. Their masked contempt for average Americans has always been about a millimeter below their surface congeniality.
But it's the Democratic Party that gets me riled. It's the phoney 'I feel your pain' disengeniousness and betrayel and undermining of progressives, labor, working poor, children, etc...
If it's true that leopards don't change their spots with regard to Ojeda, would it not also be true of a Goldwater Girl?
Rumor has it she's running. Running on her resume and hubris that her fans will be sure to overlook, ignore or be satisfied with. On the other hand, like Lieberman had, there's a D next to her name so that's gotta count for something right?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 03:55 AM
She's not running. But if she did she'd stand a far better chance of winning than this jingoistic hillbilly.
And she'd make a far better president.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 11:07 AM
Nice to know she's not a war like patriot. I'm sure folks in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria would have appreciated knowing that during her time as a Senator of NY or Secretary of State.

Let's hope your right Gregor. Her followers are about as fanatical as any MAGA heads. Still, that publishing of her book 'How everyone else screwed up' or whatever it was called, looked like a typical publishing prelude for a politicians intent to run. Have to wait and see.

You didn't answer the question of Leopard spots.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 05:25 PM
Yes, let's see...leopard's spots.

Quote
I feel like my political beliefs are rooted in the conservatism that I was raised with. I don't recognize this new brand of Republicanism that's afoot now, which I consider to be very reactionary, not conservative in many respects. I'm very proud that I was a Goldwater Girl. And then my political beliefs changed over time.
HRC 1996

In our own way, we are all conservative to some degree. Even yourself Monsieur Firebrand.
Some time back I was telling you about the advantages of sous vide cooking, you scoffed at it and insisted the only way to cook was with a crock pot. Do you even Instapot, dude?

I don't hold that one vote against her(this woman should be our president!)

I believed they had nuclear weapons or were building them,
I believed that there was a peaceful solution, didn't you?

So did she.

Left to his own devices, Bush would not have gone to war. I'm convinced that Vice President Richard Cheney saw it as a chance to make $Billions$ and pushed Bush into war.

You told me once, long ago, that Madame Clinton was a pretty good senator for your state. You've changed your spots a bit since then.

But this yahoo from West Virginia is who he is and this is all a ploy to get himself a lobbying or media position. Otherwise he's back on the streets with a choice of digging coal, selling dope, or getting a job in government. He's f*cking pro-coal, Chunks! What else do you need to know?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 09:39 PM
I can joke about peculiarities of cooking styles Gregor. I also understand the idea of not throwing the baby out with the bath water, which is all I see conservative being. That might be oversimplifying it a bit.

I did not believe the nuclear weapons program then. I believe it was mostly Saudi's that flew the planes into the T. Towers and I was disgusted with that criminal act being used as a justification for imperial ambitions. Senator Clinton felt another way about it.

She saved a VA from getting shut down in our area. It was an anchor to the local employment in much the same way as bases and prisons are to local economies in upstate NY. It serves a large veterans community that would have to have traveled much further to get medical care. I give her credit for that.

Ojeda might be all you say he is and maybe he is not. He's been trained to think in a military fashion and that concerns me. On the other hand, he is speaking directly to people's real life situations without a bunch of word craft which sounds like something but doesn't commit to anything. I'm amused that you would condemn his campaign from the outset before he's done anything to confirm your suspicions but defend the Clintons that have proven, to many progressives, our worst fears about them. I could go into the horrendous list but she has an almost cult like status to her fans. Madness that way lies.





Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 09:41 PM
She would have been a terrible president.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/13/18 10:22 PM
Whoops! Your right Gregor. My fault, I got confused about Hillary's run

Slight discrepancy
Quote
She would have been a terrible president.

She would have been 100 times better than what we have now. Just think of all the insane things Trump has done, and I doubt she would have done any of them. We would have fixed the ACA/Medicaid gap, and might even have government options on their way to becoming single-payer.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/18 03:09 AM
Or just do single payer like progressives have demanded for years now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/18 03:10 AM
She was a war hawk neoliberal.
It's ironic that the ultra right has to create Clinton murder fantasies for their ultra right followers as her involvement in the death and destruction of brown skin people aren't offensive to them.
On the other hand, her fans are offended by the evil conspiracies that have been leveled at her but never confront her murderous foriegn policy decision. Apparently killing brown skin people is not that offensive for them either.
Interesting times.
Latest whispers are that she's preparing a full on progressive presidential agenda to run on in 2020. And why not if the rumors are true? She saw it work for Obama and blocked her run. She almost suffered the same feat by a genuine progressive socialist.
Third times a charm? Well see...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/18 04:04 AM
William Jennings Bryan ran 4 times. A Democrat but stood for everything Republicans consider holy these days. That was back when Republicans were the progressive party. Nothing ever really changes.

Really. Nothing.

I aint crazy about Biden running either. I love Uncle Joe as much as the next man but it's time for him(and Clinton and Bernie) to bow out and let the young guns fight it out.
Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/18 04:48 AM
So--thinking back I was about eight years old. My father was a pragmatist, my mother an artistic type dreamer, and a very good musician I might add. It was Christmas. And I wanted a spaceship. That actually worked! That I could really fly and “go to the moon”.

So looking back, I suppose they both conspired to buy me that cardboard “spaceship” that would take me to the stars. On Christmas I was presented with it. Aside from being spurned during the first time I was attempting to be laid it was my worst disappointment of all time.

What? A phuggin' cardboard box that was supposed to take me into the glorious future and fly me to places unknown that I absolutely wanted to see? And that I absolutely demanded to see! Yet that goddam cardboard box never even had an engine. Or any other sort of power levitation.

Life is full of disappointments Chunky. I suppose sometime your perfect world where everything works in harmony will appear.....and the rest of the fools will fall in line

But I am not holding my breath.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/18 04:19 PM
I think you took a long way around the block to let me know that life isn't perfect Ken.
Uhhh yeah.
I've lived long enough to see that in action and perfection is not what I'm talking about.
I have talked about neoliberal fascism, Clintonian triangulation, environmental destruction, and the boomers congenital nihilism that must be overcome and quickly.

Perfection? I don't believe I've asked for that.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think you took a long way around the block to let me know that life isn't perfect Ken.
Uhhh yeah.
I've lived long enough to see that in action and perfection is not what I'm talking about.
I have talked about neoliberal fascism, Clintonian triangulation, environmental destruction, and the boomers congenital nihilism that must be overcome and quickly.

Perfection? I don't believe I've asked for that.

But you've also consistently promoted voting third party when the so called "purity" of the Democratic Party does not meet standards.

Now mind you, I am not labeling you a "purity pony", but I suspect you might be able to see quite a few of them in the pasture you're standing in.
In the end, simple mathematics won't be kind. Someday that same math might be, and I would want to look forward to that day by supporting whatever it is that can tip the scales away from the two main parties and toward a third party.

Most of that, however, is generational work. It is tedious, expensive and slow moving. You're talking about changing a couple of centuries of ideas that people take for granted. You're talking about changing the thinking of millions of people all at the same time.

In the end, what Republicans do is capitalize on this and use it to their advantage. This time, that gambit didn't work as well as they hoped. This time, a lot of very liberal committed soldiers found their way into Democratic Party seats.

You may want to tip your hat grudgingly to acknowledge that.
But I could be wrong wink

PS: Ken, the first time I got laid, I was hoping for someone who resembled a Playboy centerfold, voluptuous, worldly wise and madly in lust with me.
What I wound up with was a skinny blonde teenybopper with 70's aviator glasses who was as inexperienced as I was, and who had a mom who showed up unexpectedly when she should have been at work. attn

Still, I persisted...bite the pillow, I was going in dry, and I'm sure she spent that one minute or less staring at the cottage cheese ceiling wondering if this was really what it was all about. [Linked Image from static.xx.fbcdn.net]

[Linked Image from i.kym-cdn.com]



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/18 04:47 PM
Go ahead and vote for the banana sticker of your preference Jeff. If I have a lousy candidate I'll vote green or leave it blank. That's also voting. That's not purity, that's you hectoring people. I'm not voting against my interests any longer.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/18 08:19 PM
Two points you brought up Jeff that i thought are worth responding too.

"Most of that, however, is generational work. It is tedious, expensive and slow moving. You're talking about changing a couple of centuries of ideas that people take for granted. You're talking about changing the thinking of millions of people all at the same time."

Not so. It was the boomers who, as a generation, reversed gears and elected Reagan and all that it represented. Reagan was a turning point, in my book, that ushered in a trove of right wing grift and faux freedom language. Even his own age demographic didn't support him. So how does your generational theory square a rejection of Keynesian economic theory and labor movement struggle being rejected in one generations time? Why is it incrementalism for liberal progressives and death of a thousand cut but 'revolution' for conservatives Jeff?....

"In the end, what Republicans do is capitalize on this and use it to their advantage. This time, that gambit didn't work as well as they hoped. This time, a lot of very liberal committed soldiers found their way into Democratic Party seats.

You may want to tip your hat grudgingly to acknowledge that.
But I could be wrong wink"

An embryonic number of committed progressives were elected to congress Jeff but it was not due to the institutional structure of the Democratic party. Instead it was mainly do to the long hard work of street level organizing, canvassing and get out the vote efforts on behalf of committed volunteers backed by separate funding sources than the customary traditional 'dialing for dollars' DNC. One could also request you tip YOUR hat to these progressive grass root efforts that got this small group of progressives elected to congress as well as many more down ballot victories. Victories that were won in regions that the upper class DNC had walked away from and written off as hopeless.
That should be telling you something in and of itself about the DNC makeup and direction. Don't equate progressive victories to the upper corporate party leadership.




Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/18 10:49 PM

I'm satisfied with my voting record. But I'm not satisfied with the direction politics has trended these last few decades. We've landed ourselves into quite the pickle. Remains to be seen how, or whether, we will get out of it.

Taken individually, our votes mean nothing. Vote how you will or don't vote at all, it makes no difference. We're really just observers anyway.

2020 will be an interesting year. I think it will trend blue again. The senate map isn't as easy for Republicans next time around and I feel like Trump can be defeated by a populist candidate like Beto O'Rourke or even Bernie, should he decide to run again.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Two points you brought up Jeff that i thought are worth responding too.

"Most of that, however, is generational work. It is tedious, expensive and slow moving. You're talking about changing a couple of centuries of ideas that people take for granted. You're talking about changing the thinking of millions of people all at the same time."

Not so. It was the boomers who, as a generation, reversed gears and elected Reagan and all that it represented. Reagan was a turning point, in my book, that ushered in a trove of right wing grift and faux freedom language. Even his own age demographic didn't support him. So how does your generational theory square a rejection of Keynesian economic theory and labor movement struggle being rejected in one generations time? Why is it incrementalism for liberal progressives and death of a thousand cut but 'revolution' for conservatives Jeff?....

"In the end, what Republicans do is capitalize on this and use it to their advantage. This time, that gambit didn't work as well as they hoped. This time, a lot of very liberal committed soldiers found their way into Democratic Party seats.

You may want to tip your hat grudgingly to acknowledge that.
But I could be wrong wink"

An embryonic number of committed progressives were elected to congress Jeff but it was not due to the institutional structure of the Democratic party. Instead it was mainly do to the long hard work of street level organizing, canvassing and get out the vote efforts on behalf of committed volunteers backed by separate funding sources than the customary traditional 'dialing for dollars' DNC. One could also request you tip YOUR hat to these progressive grass root efforts that got this small group of progressives elected to congress as well as many more down ballot victories. Victories that were won in regions that the upper class DNC had walked away from and written off as hopeless.
That should be telling you something in and of itself about the DNC makeup and direction. Don't equate progressive victories to the upper corporate party leadership.

I was referring to third party votes, and fantasies about third parties overturning the two main parties in a lightning stroke.

You're referring to what is essentially party reboots, which I almost ALWAYS argue in favor of. Don't like the way the Democratic Party shapes policy? Take it over and remake it. It's been done several times in my own lifetime. I watched it happen and so did you.
Same with the GOP.

Party reboots and retools work, and as you pointed out, they can work in a terrifically rapid time interval.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/19/18 03:14 AM
Can't argue with you there Jeff. Retool, takeover, insurgency, you name it but it needs to be done.
The power of the primaries
We're doing it.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/19/18 09:10 PM
We're working on it anyway.

I don't think this administration is going to become more popular over the next two years and Trump likely won't be re-elected. Policy designed for no other reason than to own the libs isn't gonna fly in the long game. Even Our Corporate Overlords know that.

Raking the forests will not stop fires and owning the libs will not bring growth and prosperity.
Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/19/18 10:00 PM
Quote
Raking the forests

Yet that will be the perfect job for ol Donny when he finally and mercifully vacates the office he has so sullied. That should keep him busy for a while since he would have all the forests from California way up to Washington then over to Montana and Idaho to keep “clean"....

He will be in good shape though.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/19/18 10:10 PM
Jeff,
If Sanders is simply new deal democrat and all that that implies, what then would the current democrats in charge be? Just curious. I would like to get to the nub of that one.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/19/18 11:08 PM
I think Jeffrey is trying once again to hide the S word from the moderates. New Deal Democrats were Social Democrats. Socialism and even communism were pretty popular notions back then.
Capitalists had, after all, just caused a worldwide depression that led to WW2. Luckily the cold war came along and their propaganda machine was able to turn it all around and make it the fault of (you guessed it) Democrats, who are always communist sympathizers.
Originally Posted by Greger
I think Jeffrey is trying once again to hide the S word from the moderates. New Deal Democrats were Social Democrats. Socialism and even communism were pretty popular notions back then.
Capitalists had, after all, just caused a worldwide depression that led to WW2. Luckily the cold war came along and their propaganda machine was able to turn it all around and make it the fault of (you guessed it) Democrats, who are always communist sympathizers.

Yes yes, hiding the dreaded and radioactive "S word" from the moderates, you nailed it.
And rightly so. Why not confuse the moderates and confound the RWNJ's?
I think it's an excellent tactic. Do you not understand the value that Frank Luntz and Lee Atwater brought to the Right over these last few decades?

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/20/18 12:07 AM
I am eagerly supporting the New Green Deal Democrats!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/20/18 08:02 PM
Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez seems to be emerging as their future leader. Or at least she's taking the heat from the right for the rest of them. She's young, she's smart, and I think she's having a good time.
Originally Posted by Greger
Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez seems to be emerging as their future leader. Or at least she's taking the heat from the right for the rest of them. She's young, she's smart, and I think she's having a good time.

She's not all that smart, not just yet.
She's rolled out a few whoppers that revealed her lack of education on some core matters. I think she is indeed smart enough to get caught up but it better be quick.

But then again, in the last 10 years or so I have yet to find a single Trump or Tea Party Republican who knows anything about economics. Whether it's communism, capitalism, socialism, it doesn't matter because they NEVER get it right.
Instead they spew nonsense and namecall.
But they don't have the first clue about the true meaning of any economic system. They have alternative facts and weapons grade revisionism.

Ocasio-Cortez's lack of education can be fixed.
I'm doubtful one can correct demagogue true believers on today's Right.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/20/18 09:04 PM
Bernie/Ocasio 2020!....
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/18 03:02 AM
Hey, I like her, great kid, great future, but not exactly VP material. She's 29 and inexperienced. Let's let her get her feet wet before we push her into the deep end.

And Bernie...I have the same doubts now about his executive abilities as I've always had and he's getting closer and closer to his expiration date.

She is too young, he is to old...Beto is just right!

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/18 03:37 PM
Still have to be 35 to be President. Goes for VP, too. O'Rourke got 4 million votes, in Texas. Ocasio-Cortez got 100,000 in New York.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/18 04:40 PM
Well that settles that then.
Yeah, I recall the press being flat footed in not even know who Cortez was when she unseated Crowley.
At the same time they seemed to be creating this battle for the soul of America narrative with Beto.
One wonders what else the press is missing in the crafting of narratives for public entertainment.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/18 05:59 PM
Speaking of the obtuseness of the media to catch whats going on out there, I try and follow those that have been calling it with more accuracy and bother to get out of the press briefing rooms and get in the street. We had a long history of those types of reporters and still have a remnant of that school. What I think seperates them from the rest of the infotainment types is their refusal to underestimate Trump and his canniness in reporting on him. Ralph Nader and Chris Hedges have been deadly serious reporting on Trumps political abilities.
Matt Taibbi has a timely article on the 2020 race just out today:
Trumps 2020 chances

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Speaking of the obtuseness of the media to catch whats going on out there, I try and follow those that have been calling it with more accuracy and bother to get out of the press briefing rooms and get in the street. We had a long history of those types of reporters and still have a remnant of that school. What I think seperates them from the rest of the infotainment types is their refusal to underestimate Trump and his canniness in reporting on him. Ralph Nader and Chris Hedges have been deadly serious reporting on Trumps political abilities.
Matt Taibbi has a timely article on the 2020 race just out today:
Trumps 2020 chances

The mainstream press hasn't been obtuse. The execs at the top liked the money coming in from the ratings. That plays a much larger role in determining what gets reported and what doesn't.
That's the folly of "cable news".

Since Hedges, Nader and Taibbi aren't tied to that mast, they don't have to point their sails in that direction.

Innumerable sums have been spent in educating and conditioning the American public to accept profit-driven political entertainment as "news" in the last thirty years. If you were to turn on any cable news channel and you could see a cash register total spinning while they are on the air, you'd see it spinning faster when Trump is on TV.

An awareness of that would probably undo a certain significant amount of that conditioning, I daresay.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/18 08:57 PM
I'm not disagreeing with what your saying about the profit driven market world that passes for news journalism Jeff.
What I was driving at is the ability of the media and their target markets to get high on their own supply.
The first, which is the basis of Taibbi's article, was the complete suprise of the prevailing narrative that Trump was a buffoon and that Clinton had the ultimate campaign machine that would, in the end, prevail.
The second was the Cortez primary victory that, much like Trumps, they didn't see coming and didn't understand what happenned.
Beto reminds me of that same obtuseness, willingly or not,for the realities on the ground. I see the same story telling going on with Beto's narrative. What really separates him from the centrist positioning that so many Americans are fed up with?

My guess is they will craft him as having some kind of Kennedyesque mystique since politics has now become entertainment branding for them to shape. Much like the 'Man from Hope' or 'Morning in America' commercializing. So long as he doesn't challenge the existing power structures and it's pipeline.

I don't think that head fake will cut it anymore. Time will tell.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/18 10:52 PM
In praise of Donald Trump this Thanksgiving.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/22/18 01:28 PM
Well, the neoliberal concensus is starting to weigh in and it looks like it's leaning Beto:
It's all bout the feelings y'all
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/22/18 02:16 PM
I think Beto O'Rourke was a terrific Senate candidate and is a very talented, inspiring politician. I don't think he's ready to be President, but, then, I wasn't sure Obama was, either. Turns out I was wrong then, and could be wrong now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/22/18 03:14 PM
Ironically NWP, I thought Obama was ready when he ran based on what he was running on and, I'll admit it, I didn't mind that he had minority status either.
Unfortunately, I was wrong in the sense that he wasn't what he projected but was very good at projecting.
His biggest failure was the housing crises. Instead of taking lessons from the past and using the crises to change the neoliberal trajectory, he showed many he was of that cut of cloth. By all measures he did very little for working class Americans. He talked the talk but the walk? Not so much... No hope, no change.
That would be my biggest fear with Beto. Is he an empty suit that conservatives will play off of as they did Obama?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/22/18 10:57 PM
Quote
That would be my biggest fear with Beto. Is he an empty suit

Well yeah there's that...he's definitely a tabula rasa. But the other candidates don't look any more promising to me so I'll ride this horse until I see a better one. He's got charisma and is a natural leader. He's got a pretty face and the press loves him, donors love him too. As president he would do pretty much what any Democrat will do. He'll sign the bills I want him to sign, choose cabinet members for their abilities, appoint judges who think like I think, and try to get along with our allies and stand up to our adversaries.

Obama started out okay but he lost the senate in his first midterm election so whatever agenda he might have had went straight out the window after that. He could have been a truly great president if Republicans were interested in having a truly great president.
There was never a jobs bill brought to the floor. There was never an immigration bill, nor an infrastructure bill. Republicans were absolute assh*les the entire eight years. Then they elected the assh*le in chief and continue to do nothing for working Americans.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/24/18 12:25 AM
We'll have to disagree about Obama's start Gregor. I think he stumbled out of the gate with his refusal to go Keynesian and instead stuck with neoliberal policies. He stocked his administration with Goldman and Harvard. The results were catastrophic for the middle class.
I like Ojeda still. He's got some indignation going that's refreshing to hear and has an american populist tone. Some of that 'Raise less corn and more Hell' vibe.
Sounds like a fighter...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/24/18 08:12 PM
I can agree to disagree. Say what you will about Goldman and Harvard, their alumni have a pretty good idea how things work in the rarefied stratosphere of macroeconomics.
Remember the "shovel ready" infrastructure plans that Obama spoke of early on? He wanted to "go Keynesian" as you say, but the opposition pushed for austerity when government should have been bailing out homeowners trapped by predatory lenders and putting people to work. I think that stuff got pushed aside or bartered away as congress worked on the Affordable Care Act.
Then we lost the House and Republicans gained 6 Senate seats in 2010 and it was all over for Obama.

Ojeda's going nowhere. You can take that to the bank.
Beto might be. It just is what it is. The voters are going to swing towards whichever candidate strikes their fancy when the primaries start. All we can do is speculate which one it will be at this point.
Beto gained national attention in his Texas race against Cruz. Ojeda not so much, though he did splash into the headlines a few times.

Whoever says what most of the voters want to hear will get the nom.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/24/18 11:10 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
I can agree to disagree. Say what you will about Goldman and Harvard, their alumni have a pretty good idea how things work in the rarefied stratosphere of macroeconomics.

Shoot, that aint hard to understand Gregor. High finance is simply a way to funnel money from the middle class and poor to the rich while shielding it from taxation, then loaning money back to the guvmint to fund vital services (or just cut em or privatize them) The poor and middle class get to pay for this upward funneling and offshoring of money. Goldman facilitates with Harvard business degrees. There's was a thing down state from where I live that was protesting this scam back in 2011:
Occusumthin...

Or are you diggin that neoliberal consensus?


Gawd, that bit never gets old...



You may be right about Ojeda but the point is, his campaign will be important whether he wins or not.
If Bernie hadn't run I doubt very much we would be talking about a lot of the ideas popular today (medicare for all, Green New Deal, legalizing weed, etc...). Ideas that the centrists will have a hard time getting rid of or villifying if it gets emphasized by enough campaigns.

Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 12:23 AM
Quote
Shoot, that aint hard to understand Gregor.
First of all Greger ain’t no former Pope. As a matter of fact he is some sort of howling at the moon and dancing in the night pagan--or something of that persuasion anyway.

But I thought you folks might be interested in this recent article from The Atlantic:

Will the Left go too far?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 03:32 AM
It's hard to say what's too far. Anything short of revolution is fair in my book. But it's really a matter of how far Our Corporate Overlords will let them go.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 06:15 PM
'Never Trump' Republicans went Democrat in 2018. Are they gone for good? (NBC). The article doesn't answer the question posed, but it is an important question to understand, especially as important progressive agenda proposals are debated in Congress.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 08:05 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
'Never Trump' Republicans went Democrat in 2018. Are they gone for good? (NBC). The article doesn't answer the question posed, but it is an important question to understand, especially as important progressive agenda proposals are debated in Congress.

The perennial question for centrism: Should the democratic party act more like the democratic party or should it act more like the republican party so as not to offend the suburban vote. the reason I hate this article, NWP, is that it's a bunch of hot takes of the moment by quoting a raft of pollsters and PR firms for what it all means.
It had always come down to mobilizing the working and middle class by offering bold proposals that have popular support. These pollsters always look to their polling and try to divine the wind. I'd rather look to history and there was a time when the democratic party held a majority of congresional seats for decades. The obvious question, for me anyhow, has been 'so what's changed?'.
Pollsters and PR firms are only willing to go so far with that question.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 08:21 PM
Originally Posted by Ken Condon
Quote
Shoot, that aint hard to understand Gregor.
First of all Greger ain’t no former Pope. As a matter of fact he is some sort of howling at the moon and dancing in the night pagan--or something of that persuasion anyway.

But I thought you folks might be interested in this recent article from The Atlantic:

Will the Left go too far?

Boy, whenever I see a link to the Atlantic my defenses go up Ken.
Pretty interesting walk thru the history of the progressive party and political groups mounting pressures on FDR, etc...
I take issue with the authors framing of 'leftism' as eventual chaos. Also could take issue with the 'backlash' of bold progressive legislation. I never saw these counterforces coming from popular opinion but rather from a top down assault by the entrenched economic interests from 1676 to the present day.
I do think Beinart is correct about the ideas mainly coming from the left that have any broad popular support. I don't think his 'INCOMING!' anxieties about republican reaction is fully accurate. I subscribe to the 'convergence theory'- that by and by more people will find agreement on the system being jacked up and working against their interests than what the reasons are. But you godda have ideas to meet the problems.

To that end, Sanders has released a 10 point plan that he believes the democratic party should adopt and run on. It very much reminds me of a similar plan taken by Labor in the run up to the snap elections in the U.K. It ran in the washington post as an Op Ed peice on thanksgiving.
Sanders go big or go home challenge


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 08:42 PM
Quote
Never Trump' Republicans went Democrat in 2018. Are they gone for good? (NBC).
They are conservatives and will return to the Republican Party as soon as Trump is gone.Just because you can't stomach Donald Trump doesn't make you ready to jump the fence. They see Trump as a danger to the party

At this point I am convinced that you are born conservative or liberal.
Like "boys" and "girls" it is divided evenly at about 50% and as with sex, gender is on a sliding scale. I offer, as an example some, issues that fall dead center...
Trayvon Martin. Liberals will always side with the colored kid. Conservatives will side with Zimmergoon.

Abortion, same deal.

The 2nd amendment. Same.

The climate.

Taxes.

It goes on and on and on. Two tribes at war since time out of memory.
Some of the conservatives see Trump as an "outsider".
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/25/18 09:46 PM
Bernie's still got a bully pulpit and he's using it well.

We are currently witnessing an episode where the right is going too far. The obvious prediction is that eventually public opinion will swing leftish a bit, liberals will seize control, progressives will will pull them further left. Public opinion will swing right. conservatives will seize control...
Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/26/18 01:28 AM
And the seasons they go round and round
And the painted ponies go up and down
We're captive on the carousel of time
We can't return we can only look....
behind from where we came
And go round and round and round
In the circle game
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/26/18 11:12 AM
Is that SSDD Ken?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/26/18 12:29 PM
An interesting op-ed peice from Hedges discussing the path towards neoliberal fascism. He quotes a lot from his recent video conversations with David Harvey on the history of neoliberalism.

The neoliberal road to fascism

As the Democratic Party becomes the party of the human hog farms of the wealthy suburbs, my fear is that it will find itself more wedded to the characteristics that define this large swath of Murica. An atomized society from which no culture grows or solidarity flourishes. It's organizing principle is consumption and convenience.
It's hard to see the Democratic Party escaping this cultural and political black hole. The irony will be when cannibal capitalism comes for them. What then?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/26/18 06:07 PM
Quote
What then?

Revolution.

Wouldn't be the first time in history that the proles were overrun by the bourgeoisie and forced into revolution.
The US is currently undergoing a civil war of sorts. A simmering hatred of one side for the other. It's hard to get a proper revolution going when the proles are already at war with themselves.

The bourgeoisie control the propaganda and keep the proles at each others throats so they can't organize a revolution.

So, in conclusion...no revolution is possible when revolution is the only possible solution. Our corporate overlords have got us by the short hairs.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/03/18 05:47 PM
Uh Oh. there's gunna be some anger from the neolibs when they hear the jungle drums start beating again:
Sanders 2020

If he goes I wonder who he'll run with?
He is 77. Maybe it's time to find a protege to promote. Maybe several proteges.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/04/18 01:35 AM
If Bernie can rekindle the excitement he's a shoo in.

But...any Democrat might be a shoo in if the Trump train goes off the rails between now and then.

Sherrod Brown might be a name to watch too.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/04/18 02:20 AM
Yeah, Sherrod Brown looks to be the last democrat and will probably have to turn the lights off in Ohio for the Democratic Party. It's a shame he didn't back Sanders in the primary. Insiders said it felt like a real Betrayel for Sanders but that's politics. I like Brown. It. Can only help to have his voice in the mix.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/04/18 03:33 PM
UMASS just finished a study that found the saveings would be larger with medicare expansion for all than the previous Koch study found. By a LOT.
At this point, with 70% of Americans in favor of a medicare for all plan and a huge cost savings to the country with better outcomes one wonders why any so called Democrat would not back this as a major campaign issue for 2020. Aside from the objection coming from market world of ideas...
UMass study
THere's another effort here in New York called 'Healthy New York' that has been gaining traction. It would essentially divert monies that the state sends to the federal agency and funds a state level 'Medicare for all' system administered by a state board of trustees. It passed in the state house but was stymied in the senate due to the actions of the IDC (independant democratic coalition similar to Congressional 'Problem solver' caucus). Those so called Dems got voted out in the 2018 mid terms and there is really no reason it shouldn't pass but we'll see. Then there's the Cuomo guy in the governors mansion. He's a problem.
I like this topic, made mainstream by Sanders, in particular because it exposes the lie that the markets are the best way to distribute resources in the most efficient way. This subject is visceral to most Americans and shows what a con the Neoliberal consensus has been.
I very much hope we will see 'Medicare for All' gain momentum for 2020. One wonders if Trump will hop on board as he did with the rest of Sanders populist message in 2016.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/04/18 04:12 PM
Sherrod Brown just got re-elected to the Senate. He can run for President and still serve in the Senate if not elected. I doubt it will hurt, and may buttress, his standing in Ohio. A Kasich-Brown contest would be fascinating. I like them both, but Kasich has too many Republican ideas.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One wonders if Trump will hop on board as he did with the rest of Sanders populist message in 2016.

Which parts of Sanders' populist message did Trump hop on board with?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/05/18 02:49 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One wonders if Trump will hop on board as he did with the rest of Sanders populist message in 2016.

Which parts of Sanders' populist message did Trump hop on board with?

The corruption of Washington politicians.
Healthcare
Nafta, trade, jobs
De-industrialization
Solidarity with working class, etc etc
I wouldn't exactly call making a lot of false promises "hopping on board".
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/05/18 03:29 PM
It goes back to the notion that "fascism is a populist movement without a left option".
Fascism has historically coopted language from the left and is doing it today. Here as well as Europe. The latest is the yellow vest protests in Paris where you see both socialists and fascist competing for the messaging and neither ceding the public space to the other.
Trumps no dummy in certain arenas, though it helps some people to think he is. His record is cunning self preservation and he'll steal any credit for something that's popular. He used the language of populism on his campaign trail. Mixed in with racism and xenophobia but a good deal was populist. My guess is he saw how well Sanders was doing started talking about the issues that he saw Sanders succeeding with. Issues that the Democratic establishment failed to take seriously at the time.
That may be changing now. The public is there on this issue but, unfortunately, the parties donors aren't. See Joe Manchin for an example.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One wonders if Trump will hop on board as he did with the rest of Sanders populist message in 2016.

Which parts of Sanders' populist message did Trump hop on board with?

The corruption of Washington politicians.
Healthcare
Nafta, trade, jobs
De-industrialization
Solidarity with working class, etc etc

I'm hesitant to link all of those directly with Sanders because I am somewhat convinced that Trump wanted to address NAFTA, trade, jobs and healthcare all along. Here is what he was talking about long before Sanders even announced his candidacy.

"The America We Deserve" - Donald Trump, 2000

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/09/18 01:22 AM
Yeah, I get what your saying Jeff.
Populism can come in different shades but the american form, to my understanding of it, has generally been inclusive and economically progressive.
Trump's been blending that tradition with the other, darker variant.
He did, in fact, spend much time on the campaign trail going after the same subjects as Sanders was. Healthcare, jobs, wages etc...
You may recall his reaching out to disaffected sanders supporters after he lost the primary and the SH!t storm was brewing over the fixing of the primary confirmed by the leaked emails.
To me, it's a sign of Trumps shrewdness and Clinton's obtuseness. That's not an endorsement of what Trump was selling. Just my simple interpretation of the campaign.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Yeah, I get what your saying Jeff.
Populism can come in different shades but the american form, to my understanding of it, has generally been inclusive and economically progressive.
Trump's been blending that tradition with the other, darker variant.
He did, in fact, spend much time on the campaign trail going after the same subjects as Sanders was. Healthcare, jobs, wages etc...
You may recall his reaching out to disaffected sanders supporters after he lost the primary and the SH!t storm was brewing over the fixing of the primary confirmed by the leaked emails.
To me, it's a sign of Trumps shrewdness and Clinton's obtuseness. That's not an endorsement of what Trump was selling. Just my simple interpretation of the campaign.

As it was, I was on a crap-ton of Bernie Facebook groups during that period and it's awfully difficult to interpret it as Trump reaching out to Bernie Bros for me, because I was seeing Bernie Bros talking about Trump before the Democratic Convention.
Scads of them had already made up their minds that the nomination was corrupt and tilted against Bernie and that they were in a mood to put Trump in just to teach America a lesson.

Never mind that, by refusing to be a Democrat, Bernie was up against Rule Numero Uno in the DNC:

1. Choose a Democrat as candidate, no choosing OUTSIDE the party.

Rule Numero Dos:

2. Protect the chosen DNC candidate at all costs.

I've expounded on this innumerable times, you cannot be outside the party and expect that party to help you in a POTUS race. It just doesn't work that way, it never has and it likely never will.

But anyway, a month or even two months before the convention, a lot of hardcore Bernie or Bust Bros were announcing their intention to vote Trump if Bernie lost the primary, again...just to teach us all a lesson.
That's the point where I lost a lot of respect for the Bernie Bros: Not for Bernie, because he was honest and would have worked to fulfill his campaign promises. But anybody who really thought Trump would or could fulfill any of those ideas he usurped from Bernie was an idiot. And the Bros who voted for Trump in a fit of pique over the primary were self-destructive idiots as well.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/09/18 04:06 PM
Ok a coupla points.


1st. There has been a good look at the historical rate of party switching and the evidence of this 'Bernie Bro' (T.M. Hillary 2016) defection happenned in any significant number above that historical average can't be found. But yeah, you were on a posting page so i guess what? Evidence? Ok. Nailed it Jeff. 538 has done some good number crunching on this vote shift for 2016 but don't let em fool ya. Fake News!
2nd: you should look into the origen of 'Bernie Bro'.

3rd: the ridiculousness of your argument that it's ok for the party to rig the primary Jeff. Seriously? I'm as cynical as the next guy but for all the faults of the republicans (a long list to be sure) one thing that's interesting is that they don't mess with their primaries to the level of the Democratic Party. They leave the fraud and grift for the general election.
You wanna know why they don't? Because it angers a certain percentage of their base. Democratic Party leadership, on the other hand, has been carving off chunks of it's left flank for decades now.

4th: Bernie ran on the democratic ticket. If you want a protect at all cost rule to be a rule then enforce it Jeff? If that's the case ( in Jeff world but I'll play along) then why let him into the race from the start?

One possibility was that he could be used as a foil for Hillaries anointing. My guess is they let him in believing they could present a farce as a real competition but, suprise suprise, what they got was, in fact, a real competitor who's ideas and positions were very popular. At that point they could have fought a real primary battle or choose to rig the primary. They chose to rig the primary. They leaks only confirmed what Sanders supporters knew. Indeed, as many down ballot progressive primary candidate knows. It's all about the money and the DNC is there to protect that. That is the North Star of the party leadership Jeff. It guides their every decision and will be our neoliberal tombstone if we don't wrest control from these classist greed heads. Your 'they godda be party members' rule is nonsense. They have primaried good progressives with republican candidates that reflagged themselves democrats for DCCC support. Your rules are just that. Yours.

It's like climate denial. Hillary supporters just can't admit what a lousy candidate she was. Your simply enabling a party that needs serious reforming.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/09/18 08:04 PM
I'm a Hillary supporter and I'll be the first to admit that she's a lousy candidate. It's her biggest weakness. Campaigning.
But I still think she would have been the perfect follow-up for Obama.
Instead we got a fellow whose strongest suit is campaigning. Once elected he had nothing to back up the sales pitch. No understanding of how the game is played and no respect for the rules. But a great candidate!

Both parties need serious reforming. Neither is liable to get it.

Because money.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/10/18 04:19 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
I'm a Hillary supporter and I'll be the first to admit that she's a lousy candidate. It's her biggest weakness. Campaigning.
Ya' think?!? Hmm Campaigning M-F and taking weekends off. rolleyes

You'd think that Hillary acted like the gig was hers. coffee
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/10/18 06:37 PM
Her policy positions (foreign, health care, minimum wage, race) made her a lousy candidate as well as her tone deafness and the campaigns hubris. For me anyway. The crucial battle ground states thought the same as well.
I'm still of a mind she's running again but time will tell.
Are we having some sort of contest to see how many Senate seats Republicans can lose in 2020? (The answer is 22.) This latest court ruling that ACA is unconstitutional should be ripe just around that time. Do you think maybe millions of people facing losing their health insurance will be inspired to actually vote in their best interests? Talk about a great campaign issue! Republicans just keep on shooting themselves in the foot. Complaining about ACA is a great campaign issue for them to get their (shrinking) fan base worked up, but God Forbid they actually succeeded. The backlash would be huge.

It's like abortion in that sense. A wonderful issue to differentiate themselves from Democrats, but if they actually got it banned, the voters would turn them out en masse.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/17/18 04:31 PM
The headline: Trump says he would work with Democrats on 'great' replacement if Obamacare is scrapped (Politico). The reality: same thing he said two years ago, he didn't mean it then, either. He'll take what is already there and "rebrand" it, just like he did with all those Trump properties, steaks, wine, and NAFTA. What Dems need to understand is, even talking to the man is anti- democratic.
Democrats might just be able to pass a bill to change it to RomneyCare. They are almost identical, except RomneyCare had larger op-out fines. It would be pretty funny to watch Republican's attack one of their own presidential candidate's plans.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/18/18 02:14 AM
Quote
It would be pretty funny to watch Republican's attack one of their own presidential candidate's plans.

John McCain pretty much became persona non grata when he diasagreed with Trump. Mitt Romney is the butt of Republican jokes already. There is no loyalty among thieves.
True, the Party of Mitt Romney is not the Trump Party of today, but it would still be funny watching them jump through hoops trying to explain to all the Romney voters why Romney was a traitor. GOP is the Party of the Elephant, remember. Those old white guys are going to remember Mitt was the greatest thing since sliced bread, back in the day.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/18/18 06:52 PM
I never got the impression that Mitt was ever really well loved by Republicans, he was just a candidate who lost and dropped off the map. McCain had more going for him because he was a war hero and a Senator. Until Trump declared that no one who got captured could be a hero.

Always known as a "maverick" McCain stepped out of line and was kicked to the curb even on his deathbed. It's too bad about John McCain...he would have made a better Democrat than Republican.

But as far as health care goes I think we're on track to see younger people being able to buy into Medicare. One of Chuck Schumer's pet projects is allowing people 50 years old to buy in. We may see that pop up in the next two years along with improvements to Obamacare and more states buying into Medicaid. I really don't expect much to happen until after 2020 when Democrats take control again. History predicts that there will be a flurry of health care plans discussed, gains will be made, then Republicans will take control and chip them all away.

The most important issue in all this will be to insure that every detail passes muster with the strict constitutionalists. If that isn't possible then the law can't stand. Maybe our constitution simply rules out federally administered healthcare...

Quote
Maybe our constitution simply rules out federally administered healthcare.

I really doubt that. It has no language anywhere saying health care must be private and it does have language about the general welfare of the people. So I think it comes down to money. If Medicare-for-all is cheaper than other alternatives, then I think it wins.

And that leads to the buy-in cost question. Obviously it is not fair to just sign everybody over 50 for free. People over 65 paid all their working lives for Medicare. That's why you need to move gradually or else charge people near as much as they pay for insurance now until they reach 65. There are a myriad of options for this, but the key is to get people over 65 to believe the new system is going to make Medicare stronger.
South Carolina GOP open to canceling state's 2020 primary to protect Trump from challenge

Quote
The Republican Party in South Carolina is weighing whether to cancel its presidential nominating contest in 2020 in an effort to protect President Trump from potential challengers.

As insane as you think it might get, it's bound to get even more so.
You cannot have a football game between the Cowboys and the Redskins and then suddenly, a San Francisco 49-er runs onto the line of scrimmage and says that he's playing on the Redskins team.
Bernie refused to join the Democratic Party, and that means that he is not a Democrat, even if he says he is running "as a Democrat".
Because according to the rules of both parties, "running as a Democrat" (or as a Republican) might more accurately be:
"Running as if I was a Democrat".

There simply are no party provisions for people running "as if" they were a member, you have to BE a member of the party.
And so, because Bernie was NOT a member of the party, the party chose someone else. I'm fairly certain that, if it had been anyone else instead of Hillary, they would have done much the same thing, namely: PROTECT THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.

Because in the end, whether you and I agree what they did was immoral or even sometimes illegal, they did what a party is required to do, select a candidate and then protect them.

Right now as you read this, the South Carolina GOP is pondering the idea of canceling their 2020 GOP SC state primary ALTOGETHER, in order to protect Trump.

That means, if enough states cancel their GOP primaries altogether in 2020, NO ONE "running as if they are Republican" has a chance because no other REPUBLICAN PARTY MEMBER even has a chance.

When seen through that kind of lens, all of a sudden the DNC closing ranks around Hillary in 2016 seems rather tame by comparison.
Bernie, as much as I love the guy, should have tossed his silly and sentimental "Democratic Socialist" tag in the trash the day he set foot on Capitol Hill for the first time, because in reality, according to the work he has done, he's a liberal New Deal Democrat in the style (and largely platform) of FDR.

Had he done that all those years ago, I suspect that the DNC would have been transformed by him* a long time ago, and they would have had no choice but to run him in 2016.

(*Witness his considerable grass roots 2016 crowdfunding mojo - now extrapolate that out ten years prior all the way up till 2016)
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/20/18 12:07 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
There simply are no party provisions for people running "as if" they were a member, you have to BE a member of the party.
And so, because Bernie was NOT a member of the party, the party chose someone else. I'm fairly certain that, if it had been anyone else instead of Hillary, they would have done much the same thing, namely: PROTECT THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.

Because in the end, whether you and I agree what they did was immoral or even sometimes illegal, they did what a party is required to do, select a candidate and then protect them.

OK Jeff. Breaking my posting hiatus after reading this gem.
If you don't see the contradictions here then I'm afraid you have been clinically traumatized with what is being commonly called Hillary Clinton Defeat Syndrome
What it is, basically, is deep trauma to the brain for Clinton supporters that occured after she flamed out in the 2016 election. Their brains need to protect themselves of the reality that she lost by having a horrible political record for many on both the far right and left as well as the fact that she was nakedly incompetent to win against one of the most unlikable candidates in modern history.
For the brain to do this it must make up an alternate universe of cockamamie rationale that explains that loss, often extending the logic to the democratic primary itself, as you have done.
Unable to find a tidy narrative to paper over the obvious fact that she was unexpectantly challenged by real politics of addressing people's material concerns and anger and a resultant exposure of the DNC coordinating with her campaign over her challengers, youve concocted a set of rules that, apparent to yourself, allow for the coronation of a nominee.
Coupla things with that:

There was a widely publicized contest where the VOTERS got to both, listen to the arguments, and then cast their votes in whatever state primary system they reside in.

What is the rule or governing authority over candidate qualifications that you are referring to that allows a candidate such as Sanders to run in the primary but not allowed to win it over party preference? Really. A link or citation would come in handy here.

I understand the MSM (looking at you NYT, WP) serving as basically an outpost extension of the Clinton 2016 campaign and running sanders down when er they could. That's fair and the press has sided with the neoliberal consensus for decades now and Hillary was their pick but the DNC?
Out of respect to your fondness for analogies, how much confidence would you have in a stock car race if one of the race teams had just loaned NASCAR a pile of money just before the race?

As mentioned before, there's a perverse comfort in knowing there's an equal amount of that there cognitive dissonance coming from the center right as there has been from the far right. It's just that the center right has more news channels to choose from.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
There simply are no party provisions for people running "as if" they were a member, you have to BE a member of the party.
And so, because Bernie was NOT a member of the party, the party chose someone else. I'm fairly certain that, if it had been anyone else instead of Hillary, they would have done much the same thing, namely: PROTECT THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE.

Because in the end, whether you and I agree what they did was immoral or even sometimes illegal, they did what a party is required to do, select a candidate and then protect them.

OK Jeff. Breaking my posting hiatus after reading this gem.
If you don't see the contradictions here then I'm afraid you have been clinically traumatized with what is being commonly called Hillary Clinton Defeat Syndrome

You seem to have me confused with a Hillary fan.
Yes, Hillary Clinton is at least partly responsible for my son being alive, given all the hard work she did to make sure that the S-CHIP program survived.
But that doesn't mean that I wanted her to run for President...again.
2008 was enough for me, I knew she was a terrible candidate back then.
I also knew she was a terrible candidate after watching her dip her toe into the water in the first part of the 2016 campaign, and by that time I was already aboard the Bernie Sanders train.

I was maybe the very first "citizen-journalist" to cover his announcement, because he stopped by Canter's Deli right before his appearance on Bill Maher. There wasn't even enough time for most of his fans, which were already legion, to get to Canter's, so the room was sparsely populated. It was June 20, 2015.



But, putting aside your slightly condescending outlook toward what is basically a common sense look at how parties conduct their business, let's analyze what it is you think I'm trying to prove.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
There was a widely publicized contest where the VOTERS got to both, listen to the arguments, and then cast their votes in whatever state primary system they reside in.

Yes, there was. Yes, people did.
And the Democratic Party had indeed already "crowned" Hillary before the first primary was even planned, and even released funds to her campaign ahead of time.
But that's beside the point, and the point, which you steadfastly appear to be ignoring, is this:

The Democratic Party would, under any other circumstances, open the field to any challenger, much the same as the Republicans did to seventeen of them, had it been a different stable of candidates.
Only one requirement was needed - they had to actually BE Democrats.

Can I point to a specific party rule in either party that flatly states that a party candidate has to be a member of that party?
Wow, where do I even go to look for such a rule in order to copy and paste the link?
Maybe Democrats.org...

Sure enough, in Article 9, Section 9 there is a clause which says that you might be right!

Quote
Section 9. The Democratic National Committee shall maintain and publish a code of fair campaign practices, which shall be recommended for observance by all candidates campaigning as Democrats.
The Democratic National Committee Chair shall put in place a code of Democratic National Committee conduct concerning Presidential candidates and campaigns prior to each presidential cycle to ensure
fairness and transparency. The code shall address areas including, but not limited to: providing information to campaigns; agreements between the Democratic National Committee and campaigns; fundraising; and common vendors. This code shall be made readily available to Democratic National Committee and all bona fide Democratic presidential candidates.

Except, what IS a "bona fide" candidate?
Let's look further...

Well, Section 4 of Article One says:

Quote
Section 4. Establish standards and rules of procedure to afford all members of the Democratic Party full, timely and equal opportunities to participate in decisions concerning the selection of candidates, the formulation of policy, and the conduct of other Party affairs, without prejudice on the basis of sex, race, age (if of voting age), color, creed, national origin, religion, economic status, sexual orientation, gender identity, ethnic identity or disability, and further, to promote fair campaign practices and the fair adjudication of disputes.

So it appears it might be a bit of a quandry, because while Article One/Section 4 talks about the DNC's responsibility to all MEMBERS, Article Nine/Section 9 talks about "all candidates campaigning as Democrats" but makes the vague stipulation that they must be bona fide, and apparently there is no further definition of what exactly constitutes "bona fide".

You know, it could be that this sort of thing has happened so rarely that the issue has never even come up.
Teddy Roosevelt tried setting up his own unique party called the Bull Moose Party but he was basically running on a Republican Party platform, just not AS a Republican. It didn't go anywhere.

I cannot think of a single other instance in our entire history where a candidate for POTUS ran "as if they were" a party member.
Plenty of people have run as third party members, but Bernie might be unique.

As for the media ignoring Sanders (AND giving Trump almost two billion in free air time) there has never been a dispute between you and me about that ever. I've said in earlier discussions that I grant you everything in that regard.
Maybe you forgot, because you appear to have forgotten that I was a Sanders supporter.

I think where I must have failed in your eyes is the moment where I decided, all alone in my voting booth, not to throw my vote down a blank hole marked "write in candidate" in the futile hope that the laws of the universe would suddenly change and thousands of electors would suddenly "go faithless" and choose Bernie after he had already bowed out of the process. (thus in effect giving my vote TO Trump)

And now you appear to have decided that, in reality, it must just be a temporary form of madness and that I am suffering from some kind of Hillary syndrome.
Talk about a perverse form of cognitive dissonance.

No major political party will EVER lend support to candidates who are OUTSIDE of their own party. That's because in all our 242 years, no party ever HAS.
Pretending that they suddenly would is a fool's errand.
It's like trying to look for anti-matter in a jar of Crisco shortening.

PS: Why are you on a posting hiatus? I sure hope it's not because no one is willing to accept your pronouncements on my mental health.
My mental health is as good as it can be under Trump.
I wanted Bernie to be President, it didn't happen, and I happen to believe that Bernie could have made the DNC his bitch.

You seem to think that a political party would be willing to lay down a brand new rule for a unique and otherwise unheard of situation, and I must be suffering from a syndrome to excuse a candidate I didn't even want to run.

Hmmmm...
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/20/18 06:46 PM
I think Bernie just misunderstood what it meant to "caucus with" the Democrats...
Hillary might have been a poor candidate, but obviously Bernie was a worse candidate. Because Hillary actually won more votes than he did.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/20/18 07:22 PM
An actual 'discussion' over non members of the Democratic party claiming the right to run as a Democrat. This is a VERY strange discussion. Apparently, according to those arguing for non Democrats running as Democrats means that the Democrats must allow anybody at all to run under their banner, ie. Nazis, Communists, Socialists, Aliens from Outer Space, Canadians, Mexicans, whatever........... (I know, that's crazy. On the other hand this is where some of the logic is headed)

If Bernie really wanted to run as a Democrat then he should have joined the Democratic party! It was that simple. On the other hand I also think that the Democratic party has a right to not allow just anybody to even join. It used to be that a political party also had a number of 'planks' under which any candidate, or member, subscribed to as it was the basis of the party. Now, however, nobody even seems to know, exactly, what the planks of either party actually are and candidates are, apparently, not necessarily supportive of said party planks. If this is true then I am not even sure what it means to be a member of either party.

Now, for the last - The anti-Hillary stuff is also kinda strange. She was a terrible candidate who won 3 MILLION more votes than the opposition. She wasn't all that bad a candidate but did have so-called strategists that REALLY screwed the pooch on this one. The Republicans simply out thought and out fought the Democrats. These are the same people who seem to be in charge these days too. Let me change that to "These are the same OLD people who seem to be in charge". These are also the same ones who watched as the Republicans took over something in excess of 80% of all State Legislatures and seems to have woke up one day and said; "Gosh, how in the world did the Republicans do that?"

My fond hope, in all of this, is that the Dems are, right now, having a LOT of discussions on just what the hell happened, how they are going to fix it (the Democratic party), how they are going to setup groups, across the entire country willing to sit down and think it through. After they are done they should come up with some party planks that actually describe how they want to be understood and seen, and also make sure that their candidates agree with said planks, or explain their reasons for not doing that. They could start, for instance, with having certain institutions socialized like; fire departments, police departments, public schools and healthcare. These are the things all citizens should support (I think) I also believe that, eventually, the Republicans are going to have to do the same thing after their dear leader is out of the way.

One last. Jackass is 72, Sanders is 77, Biden is 76. How about somebody that's a bit younger?

Just saying.............
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/20/18 10:27 PM
Quote
One last. Jackass is 72, Sanders is 77, Biden is 76. How about somebody that's a bit younger?

Beto?

He's a centrist, I get that. A white Obama so to speak. And the press is already ragging on his voting record and accepting donations from the petroleum industry. Not a real progressive, no true Scotsman...

I don't mind centrists if I think they might be swayed further left than their previous records might show. I don't need a socialist agenda. Just a president who will sign progressive legislation into law. And of course a congress who can pass progressive legislation.
Originally Posted by Greger
I don't mind centrists if I think they might be swayed further left than their previous records might show. I don't need a socialist agenda. Just a president who will sign progressive legislation into law. And of course a congress who can pass progressive legislation.

Bow
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/21/18 02:45 AM
That's really all there is to it. The press is pushing Dems hard to pick a progressive candidate. The more progressive the better. Because that's the horse race the press is trying to set up.
A Bernie vs Trump redux of the 2016 fiasco is what I think the press wants. It's a moneymaker. The glow was all on Beto after November but he's too mainstream for the mainstream press.

They're doing market research right now. Bernie can beat Biden if that's what it comes down to. Bernie still has the fire in his belly. Uncle Joe's day has passed, I'm afraid, it's time he drove his Vette into the sunset. He was never really presidential material anyway.

There's still a good chance that Beto catches fire even with the press trying to tamp it down. In age and attitude he's exactly what the country needs.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/21/18 02:50 AM
And just for the record, my personal choice out of all the contenders would be Sherrod Brown. Of them all he would probably make the best president. But I just don't see it happening.
Originally Posted by Greger
And just for the record, my personal choice out of all the contenders would be Sherrod Brown. Of them all he would probably make the best president. But I just don't see it happening.

Maybe Sherrod and Beto oughta sit down and have a nice chat.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/21/18 06:00 PM
I am not all that enthusiastic over Beto. He is, obviously, a GREAT fund raiser. All that being said he also lost his battle with the most hated member of the senate and, I think I saw a poll where Cruz actually won the title of most hated politician in America.

So, I am not against Beto but, I continue to wonder. I am also not against Pelosi but she, as one of the party leaders, watched whilst the Republicans took, I think, over 80% of the state legislatures. Seems to me a bit strange. There is, apparently, a group within the Democratic party which is bravely supporting people who are, basically, losers. I don't even think they are the same group but, rather, two groups, within the Democratic party, who are loudly voicing their support for, basically, losers.

I had serious questions whether the Dems would win big in 2018 and they did. I am simply pointing out that I seem to be really expert in worrying over nothing. That being the case my concerns above might also fit into that category too. I just hope that the Dems take a deep breath, and figuratively hold each other's hands whilst pounding out strategy and planks that make sense and appeal to the vast majority of those tending towards the Dems and away from the Party of Jackass.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/21/18 07:07 PM
Beto's a pretty face. Sometimes that's all it takes. There was never a chance in Hell that Beto could have beaten Cruz. The polls said it from the very start. Beto didn't win the election, but he beat the odds. He turned a race that NO Democrat could win into a photo finish barnburner. That's what raised all the eyebrows.

He could do the same thing in 2020, and maybe even win. But progressives will run massive negative campaigns against him because he isn't politically pure enough and drag out Jill Stein again. Republicans will label him a socialist and Russia will fan the flames on social media...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/21/18 08:18 PM
Jeff,

Well you have me up a stump. If you are siding with 'the Party', and perhaps that's what has me confused, Then I wish it was about being a Hillary defeat syndrome' problem. That is, if you mean 'Democratic Party' by the DNC and it's multiple fund raising and campaign committees?
If your talking decisions taken by the party then I would give that a second thought. Your saying that the party gets to decide who we get to vote for and are happy with the structures/barriers they have in place? Part of that would be double dealing during the primary campaign.

If so, then whats it all about?

Is it about winning? Then I would have to bring up the slow motion wipeout over the last few cycles. Or the ceding of major regions of the country that have assured us a republican senate for years to come.

Is it about giving up a battle today to win a long term decisive victory? That slow and steady arc of progress?.... We don't have that long. By most measures the needles are moving in the wrong direction on all the dials.
Is there some success with the leadership that I've overlooked that balances some of these negative gains over the decades?

Smart? Is it smart to allow a candidate into the race but have only done so after it was decided by party leadership who the winner should be and worked to accomplish that? It's not democracy and possibly not legal but it is something. Criminally stupid comes to mind. Why would you put on that performance? It's insulting to a large swath of your base and alienates who knows how many. Is that hyperbole? I dunno, I think it was a big pile of arrogance,incompetence, and corruption. They sure as heck heven't made it rain for a LOT of people. Donors maybe... The wrong kind for third worlders and underextracted but that's a differant kind of rain (death).
If they thought of it as a farce that would help to burnish Clinton's resume, who the hell are they to decide?

Progress? Name it cause most progress is going in the wrong direction. Against popular opinio, in many cases. Might be that primary thing. Manchin is on the senate energy committee and a ranking member is he not. Cortez's 'New Green Deal' committee will be recommendation only, with no subpoena power. A big majority of voters want to see something happen. Next stop: environmmental ecocide? What will the party decide?! Stay tuned because you can't always get what you want-for most people anyways.

Sanders was not a democrat?.... Then why was he allowed to run as such? His vote in the Senate maybe? He's his own man and if you've seen him over the years then you know he's not for sale. Might account for his popularity over Clinton's resume application. Not saying you weren't watching sanders Jeff, just trying to make a point.

Again, I don't know who you think the Democratic Party is and maybe I've misunderstood what you wanted to frame in your argument. I'll always be happy to argue against a neoliberal democratic candidate or a corrupted funding apparatus with you. You did get me off the bench after all. Might be some groaning about that but we are talking politics after all so....


Another perspective on Sanders running. By the guy from the front: Matt Taibbi's op-ed
Yes, I've BEEN talking about "The Democratic Party as administered by the DNC", because in the end, like it or not, we're stuck with them as the arbiters of who gets the Dem money.

I didn't say that I like it, or that you have to like it.
I'm just filing my observations.

And believe me when I say that I wanted Sanders to win.
In the end it was as if he ran a valiant race, "with the parking brake on", because if you have to play ball with the DNC to get DNC money, he handicapped himself.

I'm not disputing your perceptions of the Democratic Party as a desirable party vehicle, I'm calling balls and strikes.
If you want to term the DNC as a bunch of immoral bums, you won't hear much protest from me. I have to stand in line at the DMV like everyone else, so I curse them roundly...but I need that driver's license.

Bernie running again? Not unless it includes a plan to make the DNC his bitch and hew them over to his side and his way of seeing things. I love the guy but this isn't Dungeons and Dragons, it's POTUS politics.

Originally Posted by Greger
He could do the same thing in 2020, and maybe even win. But progressives will run massive negative campaigns against him because he isn't politically pure enough and drag out Jill Stein again. Republicans will label him a socialist and Russia will fan the flames on social media...

Are you saying that no one can fight the forces of Doctor Evil and His Flaming Propagandists and that Jill Stein is invincible?
I guess there's no point in ANYONE running then.

No...seriously. We should have bitch-slapped that stupid Putin-cow right from the get go and frankly, the Republican "SOCIALIST" tag is worn out. They overused it last time.

If that's the hill they choose to die on, we should make them die on it instead of circling wide and giving them snacks.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/22/18 02:20 AM
What are the balls and what are the strikes Jeff?
Actually, it doesn't matter. There are independant and growing alternative funding sources that are helping to run progressives up and down ballots.
Your arguing for the status quo. Fine. Or your observing and reporting I guess. My 35 years of observing the slow rightward drift of the Democratic Party has left me convinced of the statement that it no longer represents it's traditions but simply a sink hole for progressive energy or socialist ideas to disappear down for its donor class.
If this past week is any indication, by sidelining progressive causes, the party will continue its tradition of punching left while pleasing its donor class.
It's to be expected. I can't recall any progressive cause being accomplish from the party without pressure coming from outside. Someone else may be able to provide an example but I'm stumped. This current Democratic Party is so wedded to donor money I dont know if it's reachable anymore.
In the end, and listening to the climate scientists that's happenning now and no longer an abstract thing, we observed party norms and rules as they crafted them.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/22/18 06:25 PM
The Democratic Party is wedded to donor money - just as the Republicans are wedded to donor money. If you don't have the big bucks you win NOTHING! Beto, the apparent champion of the progressives got a lot of money but he was also a tireless worker and proudly went into every village and hamlet in the district he was running in and shook every hand he could find.

The trick, obviously, is to take care of the money thing. When the Dems take over the house they should pass a bill stating; "Money is not speech and speech is not money". I think everybody but donors and craven politicians would argue this one which is another plus for this one. I also suspect that if both houses pass such a thing that big money and craven politicians will take it to the Supremes. Again, them that actually believes that money is speech, etc. if the anti-donor class prepares a war chest to disallow the donor folk the ability to demonize I think everything might get interesting?

My thought, basically, is that the demonizers are very good at what they do and its REALLY time to fight back!

If the speech thing gets done then the other leg needs to be severed, ie. "corporations and organizations are NOT individuals and should not be treated as such."
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/22/18 07:26 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
The Democratic Party is wedded to donor money - just as the Republicans are wedded to donor money. If you don't have the big bucks you win NOTHING! Beto, the apparent champion of the progressives got a lot of money but he was also a tireless worker and proudly went into every village and hamlet in the district he was running in and shook every hand he could find.

The trick, obviously, is to take care of the money thing. When the Dems take over the house they should pass a bill stating; "Money is not speech and speech is not money". I think everybody but donors and craven politicians would argue this one which is another plus for this one. I also suspect that if both houses pass such a thing that big money and craven politicians will take it to the Supremes. Again, them that actually believes that money is speech, etc. if the anti-donor class prepares a war chest to disallow the donor folk the ability to demonize I think everything might get interesting?

My thought, basically, is that the demonizers are very good at what they do and its REALLY time to fight back!

If the speech thing gets done then the other leg needs to be severed, ie. "corporations and organizations are NOT individuals and should not be treated as such."

Couldn't agree more, JGW, couldn't agree more.

Having worked recently on this very issue and had to collect signatures I can personally assure that you don't have to think about it anymore. Just know that for every day I spent collecting signatures, on any given day on the street, after asking people if they would enjoy talking about religion or politics (with a smile!) and letten em know what it's about. Chiefly passing an amendment to get money out of politics. You can do about 25 a day and out of those asked, 23 were in strong support while 2-3 would abstain from getting involved. Cut across demographics like a dozer! Income, political affiliation, you name it.

Here's the rub for me.

It ain't gunna happen. Or not from the top any ways.
It will have to come from the bottom. Neighbor to neighbor. I mentioned the history of any achievement for freedom having always come from pressure being applied from the bottom up. Some after much devastation, such as the civil war.
But this is Pelosi were talking about and my earlier fears of her doing a challenge head fake to get re-elected as leader have been well founded by her actions this week.
Coming up a bit short of campaign finance reform is the 'Green New Deal' plan as championed by Cortez and, by many on the left figuring, lead as well.
After all, this has been a signature progressive idea that had been championed by Sanders. It's currently polling at 81-82% approval. As far as I know, it still is a major rallying cause for progressives, environmentalists, engineers, biologists, economist and any other credentialed 'ists' you care to list.
Really, what can be more important than a livable earth with the ability to have organized society?
Pelosi? I'm guessing it's safe to say she's got other things on her mind. Cortez didn't get any position on the committee as far as I know and the left is pissed. Why the hell not?!
A lesser committee rank with no supbeona power, just the ability to make recommendations. Pelosi chose to appoint a congresswoman named Kathy Castor (I kid you knot) of FL. Know idea who she is but maybe Gregor knows.
One of the BIG goals of any committee member, by the progressives, was that they recieve NO fossil fuel campaign money. A position the party embraced for a minute in 2017, until Perez reversed it.
Castor's public comment on fossil fuel donations can be read here: Pelosi gal Castor

The left is pissed and the progressive caucus is fuming. It's my hope they make Pelosi pay with a pound of flesh down the line. Scuttle a tax give away she has in mind to bring some corporate interest 'on board' some neoliberal clap trap grand bargain etc...

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/22/18 11:38 PM
Castor seems to be legit. She's in the Tampa Bay area and has the backing of the Tampa Bay Times.

Quote
Castor said the "climate crisis" deserves specific attention from a dedicated committee. House Democrats are holding an organizational meeting Thursday where a resolution is expected.

"These standing committees will have plenty to do," Castor said. "We need to raise the profile of the climate crisis. People are demanding action and don't understand why we're not leading the world on climate change innovation."
Link

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/22/18 11:48 PM
Quote
Cortez didn't get any position on the committee as far as I know and the left is pissed. Why the hell not?!

She's not even sworn in yet. AOC has a bright future in Washington but committee seats aren't usually given to newcomers.

This is just the beginning of the Green New Deal, with a little luck and enough votes to stay in power Democrats can make it happen.
Nobody gets on Intelligence or similar powerful committee first time at bat. I think everybody gets a committee assignment or two. Newcomers may get on some crap committee that doesn't meet much or introduce many bills. There are plenty of things a new Rep can do that doesn't require a committee assignment, like network and help build a caucus. Talent will out. If she is House material, people will notice what she's doing.

They can also do things in their own district and get in the press for good stuff.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/23/18 04:05 PM
Checking out Castors voting record and she's pretty good on the environment. Has voted the right way on most all bills presented to her. Most don't effect her district though so you have to go to her donor base.
Her biggest appears to be real estate developers. I can't think of any reason why I should be alarmed about a real estate developer from Florida having negative environmental consequences, can you? It's not like theirs a history of environment being sacrificed at the altar of development and jobs.
But the pattern is clear and appears to be repeating. Neoliberals triangulating progressive energy into donor money by dissapating that energy. This is shaping up to be an all to famil iar repeat of that grift with the attendant defensive rationale of seniority, experience to lead, institutional norms being maintained, etc...
None of which has shown the competency nor velocity to deal with the pace of this unfolding environmental crises.
No mention of the amazingly fast rise rise of public awareness made of this issue and a 'New Green Deal' made popular by Cortez, Sanderd and the progressive left. No, time to give it to the mid management class of politicians. The ones who gave us that exciting 'Better Deal' that no ones talked about since it was recieved by the public like a still born pig.
I'm hoping to be surprised, but history provides no foundation for that hope with these corporate schills. I'm very much hoping the progressive caucus makes this choice cost Pelosi and Hoyer.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/24/18 07:08 PM
I would hope that the Progressive caucus will try to lead more moderate colleagues into sensible legislation rather than to weaken the party with impossible demands the way the Freedom caucus has done for Republicans.



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/24/18 09:34 PM
Ah yes. Impossible demands.
One would have thought an overwhelming public approval for a 'Green New Deal' would be impossible, given the current climate and what gets packaged as 'conventional wisdom' by corporate Dems and Corporate media. And then it's proved otherwise by the 'inexperienced'.
Nothing from past decades of political history shows the New Democratic Party can be persuaded to do anything sensible. Their record speaks for itself.
I hope the progressive caucus does push the party to the left again in the same way the Tea Party was able to move Republicans to the right. O.K. New Democrats helped but you get the point.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/24/18 11:08 PM
In any case, I am whipping up support in the New Mexico congressional delegation for our own version of a New Green Deal works program that has our forest restoration, biochar+energy, and agricultural regeneration at its core as actual models - not just some ideological wish.

Maybe showcasing success will have some influence.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/25/18 05:05 AM
Quote
I hope the progressive caucus does push the party to the left
And I think we're poised to see exactly that. I don't think it can even be avoided.The Green New Deal is brand new, give it some time to mature, Monsieur Firebrand, before calling for a pound of flesh from the wiley old politicians who know how to get things done.
Exciting times are coming after the dark Trump years are done.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/26/18 04:40 PM
History Gregor....
History.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/26/18 06:14 PM
Allow me just a moment of optimism during this happiest season of the year.

I've felt for a long time that if we just give Republicans everything they want for a little while they will screw the pooch so thoroughly that they will never be trusted again.

They've gotten everything they want, they've screwed the pooch thoroughly.

Democrats will soon come back into power in a pretty big way and they've got a progressive mandate pushing the party left. It won't go as far left as you want it to, because money.
They won't even go as far left as I want them too, which is a ways off from the precipice which will tip power back to Republicans. That's the precipice where you hang out pointing down the cliff and saying "look how great things are down there..."

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/26/18 06:38 PM
Nuts!
You yourself, as plenty of others on this board, grew up in a time that was politically much different than it is today. U.S. politics has shifted to the right. Both political parties.
I've advocated nothing further than what has already been proposed and in some cases, accomplished, by previous political consensus.
But neoliberalism has been the flavor of the last 4 decades and is the one the centrist have staked their claim to and will chose to die for (as many have already). It's a pathology more than a sustainable political consensus.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/26/18 06:57 PM
You are, I think, absolutely right. I fully expect that, by 2020 our economy will be in the dumper big time. Then, of course, the Dems will get re-elected and also, yet again, charged with the task of saving the nation. They have a LOT of experience at this so they will get that job done. If history tells us anything it also tells us that the Dems will 'fix' the economy whilst being completely silent as to why the economy is in the dumper (Republicans, basically) and so, whilst they are 'fixing' the Republicans will have their demonization resources will be pinning the entire economic mess on the Dems and the Dems will just take it.

This is another one I am praying I am wrong about and that they will actually toot their horn as loudly as the other side toot their lies. I know, another exercise in wishful thinking......
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/26/18 08:02 PM
Quote
You yourself, as plenty of others on this board, grew up in a time that was politically much different than it is today. U.S. politics has shifted to the right.

US politics has always leaned right, racist, anti immigrant, anti woman and anti gay. Historically speaking it was practically yesterday when we had a civil war over slavery. It wasn't until 1965 or so that we actually granted full civil rights to black people. And even that only as a legality. People of color are still treated like second class citizens. Gays have only recently been allowed to enter the mainstream and that with considerable trepidation. Women continue to struggle beneath a burgeoning patriarchy.

And yer tryin' to tell me they've moved further right?

Maybe you don't realize just how downtrodden the downtrodden were not too many years ago so you can't see how far we've come.

Quote
a time that was politically much different than it is today
No, it wasn't. It was Democrats vs Republicans. Labor vs business.
Rich people controlled the parties. A working guy couldn't get a break...







I was politically aware from about 1960 on. I lived through all those years and things are certainly much better now, especially if you were a person of color or non-majority sexual orientation. For most of those years people were often killed (by lynch mobs, racists, gay-bashers, or government) just for being non-white or non-straight.

Sure, union-member working-class people were a little better off when the union actually meant something. But union workers were not the bottom rung of society: Far from it. And all those lower rungs were much worse off than now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/26/18 11:37 PM
U.S. politics has always been dominated by powerful interest to be sure.
Whats changed is the Democratic party embracing a market oriented philosophy and becoming openly hostile to it's left flank for the last 40 years. Labor unions, the remnants of the socialist labor struggles, are hanging on by their teeth.
Suffragettes, Anti-Imperialists, Socialists, Grange revolts,European Anarchists and Communists, etc... were the left. Driven to ground by the purge of the 50's, the left ain't what it used to be giving license for anyone to define it in it's absence from real politics or the economy. I'm not sure why, but white boomers went hard right dragging both parties with them.
We have some pretty good poverty going again and real wages have stalled out since the 70's with the profits now going almost entirely to the rich. Union membership is at an all time low as organizing is harder and harder. Minorities household is on track to Zero while fascists are openly running and, in some cases, winning political seats.
Nah, we haven't moved right. We got gay marriages (for now, wel'll have to wait and see on them revanchist judges Schumer help get appointed to federal benches).
PIA, what are you saying? I cant tell as your first sentence about unions is contradicted by your second.
Yes, union s were organized at the working class level. That's why they organized! So they would get pay raises and benefits so they could escape being working poor. What am I missing here? Union workers are still better paid than their non-union peers. This has ben getting understood again lately and there has been a upswing labor activity. In case you didn't know it, striking gets the goods!
Workers are better off today because money made concessions to labor to end hostilities. Overtime rules, time off etc... You think JP Morgan came up with that?






Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/27/18 03:50 AM
I could be wrong about this but I think non-union workers became jealous of union workers getting paid more for the same work and started voting against unions...and thus we got "Right To Work" laws.
Politics hasn't necessarily moved right, it has moved to stupid.

Also I think everyone here realizes we have entered into another "Gilded Age" and something is going to have to stop it. This is typically the job of the "left" and things being what they are, it's going to fall on the Democratic Party to actually become the left after a long comfortable run in the middle.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/27/18 02:34 PM
Wage resentments may have played a role Gregor. It is a very real thing that management class types have used to denigrate unions.
Weakening unions has been an avocation of the rich since organized labor reemergence in the 1930's. It's been a multigenerational project for some families, such as the koch's.
Shifting production from areas of high union organization and leftist politics to low unionization, if any at all, and relatively little left wing political thought began in the 50's.
Meat packing moved out of the Midwest and furniture making moved out of New England.
Similar legal efforts were made to curtail and restrict the ability of organizing work places in the south and, as the Koch project is still unfolding, the upper Midwest as well.
The south has made sense for using as a cheap labor pool. After all, it fought a horrendous war using poor laborers that were defending an economic system to keep them poor. Except for the farm revolts and cigar worker strikes I can't think of much labor solidarity in the south. I do recall a more negative attitude towards unions while living there so you may be right on resentments helping pass 'right to work' anti labor organizing laws.
The Democratic Party is incapable of reforming itsrlf and making a left turn. It's only going to happen with pressure from below. You don't get left policies by electing republicans in a Democat wrapper such as Beto. His voting record is what's wrong with the party and voters that can't differentiate between public relations and voting/donation history.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/27/18 06:54 PM
C'mon...Beto's no Republican in sheep's clothes. He's not racist, fascist, or fundamental Christian. Bear in mind that Joe Biden is more or less the front-runner in early polling. Pretty much as centrist as they come and as old as dirt. Bernie, the closest thing we have to a Comrade in the U.S. government, was running a close second.

Beto came in a distant third. But I think you're writing him off a bit too soon. His congressional voting record isn't impressive, I'll agree, but there is more to a man than that. Let's just say that if Trump gets his wall built...President Beto will tear it down. He likes brown people, he grew up with brown people, he speaks fluent Spanish and he represents a majority Latino district on the southern border. That alone puts a wee smile on my face. He'd be a great champion for immigration reform, something that's going to be a major issue in 2020.

Deal is...Beto could win this. You can set yourself against him for no good reason, or you could keep an open mind and see how things play out. He's not a leftist firebrand but he doesn't hate on leftist firebrands and he can see which way the political winds are blowing.
(Which is currently in favor of leftist firebrands)
I blame Ronald Reagan: He was President of the Screen Actor's Guild union for many years, and then a union-buster when he was President of the US. That was the point that even non-corrupt unions really started declining. Now we are living in an age of stagnant wages but continuing inflation. No wonder working class people in the Midwest are willing to try anything: Compared to 30 years ago, all the wisdom about working at a job and steadily getting raises until you retire with a pension, is no longer true. Instead you work when you can, at steadily crappier jobs for less money. Then you retire when you can't work anymore, and try to get by on Social Security. Eventually, you have to decide if you want cat food or your prescriptions.

It's The Conservative Dream (as opposed to The American Dream). Only it isn't you that is dreaming: It's some rich folks whose ideas of success all depend on lots of other people failing.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/28/18 02:03 AM
Beto could win. It would be a disaster for the Democrats. Another Clinton 2.0 and he's getting backed by the same groups. Third Way and New Democrats. That is not a good sign.
He's voted for way to much GOP legislation. Beyond the norm for someone in a democratic district such as his.
You might have a point that Beto is no Trump republican but it sure looks like he's a never Trumper in a democratic wrapper
He's recieved more fossil fuel money than everyone in congress but Ted Cruz. Awkward...

Sirota's deep dive into Beto was met with the usual attacks from the Clinton crowd and the corporate Democrats. That's also not a good sign. We don't need another democrat that talks from the left but governs from the right. Full article here

I would like to see a leftist elected for once and see if the corporatists can get him/her to move towards the center.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I would like to see a leftist elected for once and see if the corporatists can get him/her to move towards the center.

Get them into the party and pull the trigger. Chances are they will win.

If that is not the game then the thread needs to morph into a realistic discussion about how to make a third party candidate win the White House for the first time in history.
Yeah, that's going to happen...if Jesus comes back and runs Third Party for President.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/28/18 02:25 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I would like to see a leftist elected for once and see if the corporatists can get him/her to move towards the center.

Get them into the party and pull the trigger. Chances are they will win.

If that is not the game then the thread needs to morph into a realistic discussion about how to make a third party candidate win the White House for the first time in history.

With the DNC, DCCC, DLC, DSCC, etc, working against left wing candidates it might be easier to run a third party. This wouldn't be ideal but it is the reality. The party has been run by corporations and Ivy League for so long that it views leftist politicians as a threat. At some point, more and more people are realizing they don't have a home in club democrat.
I don't think were there yet. A few more cycles of self interested policies and waffling on populist promises perhaps.
The demographics are favoring a left turn. I see no sign that the corporate smart set is willing to embrace this shift, preferring marginalizing that potential base instead.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/28/18 08:13 PM
Duuuuuhhhhhhh............ okay

I might have to take back some of my pessimism. I remain guarded because it's the DNC were talking about here but it looks like a step in the right direction for once.

Wait and see...
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
With the DNC, DCCC, DLC, DSCC, etc, working against left wing candidates it might be easier to run a third party.

Easier...why is "easy" a criteria? It might be easy but is there any historical data that supports the possibility of a WIN?
NO, THERE ISN'T.

If there had been at least three or four third party presidential administrations in the last eighty to 100 years I could be convinced it was possible. There's zero.

We will not survive another two, three or four Republican trifectas. We won't even survive one more. We will wind up living in the Holy American Empire, ruled by a "pastor" who is actually a former jack-leg preacher turned common crook, and Dominionism will be the official state religion, liberalism will be outlawed and you will get to vote for the fascist of your choice...if you are a white Christian property owning hetero male with sufficient wealth to qualify as a voter.

Internal passports between our various polluted "sovereign states" will be permitted only if a "constitutional sheriff" clears you for passage, and your kids will be educated by theocratic revisionists.


Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Duuuuuhhhhhhh............ okay

I might have to take back some of my pessimism. I remain guarded because it's the DNC were talking about here but it looks like a step in the right direction for once.

Wait and see...

This is precisely the kind of crowdfunding Bernie shocked the world with. The only remaining factor is whether or not he finally decides to join the party instead of remaining an outsider.
They've left the door open and the light on.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/28/18 09:08 PM
Why is declaring himself a democrat critical Jeff? There was plenty of Data that supported the notion that Sanders would have won in 2016.
No one would have predicted a busted out game show host having multiple trophy wives, a record of draft dodging, adultery and scams would be elected by evangelicals, vets and middle class boomer white guys and their wives but here we are.
You know what? The Democratic party blew it by throwing it for the establishment.
Anyhow, the Bernie vs. Clinton debate is an unwinnable war. What's amazing to me is the admission of the DNC that popular candidates might just win elections over well funded ones as Trump proved.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Why is declaring himself a democrat critical Jeff?

Chunks, I'm pretty sure that you and I went over this ground more than a few times already. The two major political parties will NEVER lend support to someone who is "running as", they will only ever lend support to an actual party member, and "running as" is the equivalent of a third party, because the two major parties will always protect and defend candidates who ARE party members, and third party candidates have never won a POTUS election.

I didn't design it this way, but that is how it works.
I didn't say it was a great system, but that is the system.

Surely you remember us going over this before.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 02:09 AM
Yeah, I remember it. I didn't agree with that line of your reasoning then and I don't now. If it was designed that way then what kind of stupidity was it that the party didn't tell that to the Sanders camp and allowed him to run. You remember that there was also other Democratic candidates running as well, don't you?
Your argument of the Clinton grift with the party is reasonable and justifiable but doesn't square with the that overlooked fact. It does provide some kind of rational for the back room dealing between the DNC and the Clinton Campaign after it was revealed to the public.
What does the rules say about the other democratic candidates getting rooked in the 2016 race?....
I personally want to see Sanders run without bending the knee to club Dem. Make em' kick him out of the race.

Trump for the win 2020.

Let's get to the end of neoliberalisms facist inevitability. Hillary Trump. Cancer, heart attack. In the end, the results the same.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
If it was designed that way then what kind of stupidity was it that the party didn't tell that to the Sanders camp and allowed him to run.

It's not like they could stop him from running...from "running as if".

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
You remember that there was also other Democratic candidates running as well, don't you?
Your argument of the Clinton grift with the party is reasonable and justifiable...

You're saying that you remember our past conversations but I wonder if you do, because you surely would remember that I took special care to emphasize my awareness of the fact that some of what they did might be illegal, and most of what they did was immoral.
So, remembering my position, you would agree that I saw it as neither reasonable nor justifiable. I only said that I understood why they reacted as they did, I wasn't surprised, only at the level to which they took it.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
...but doesn't square with the that overlooked fact.

Well yeah, it kinda does.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
It does provide some kind of rational for the back room dealing between the DNC and the Clinton Campaign after it was revealed to the public.
What does the rules say about the other democratic candidates getting rooked in the 2016 race?....

Pretty much the same thing. Both parties are going to select party members as potential candidates but in the end, once they have made their top picks, it becomes a beauty contest. With the Dems, that was a very distorted beauty contest. There is no dispute there.
But with Bernie, he hadn't even entered the beauty contest, not the DNC one.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I personally want to see Sanders run without bending the knee to club Dem. Make em' kick him out of the race.

Trump for the win 2020.

Wow, I just don't know what to say to respond to "Trump for the win, 2020."
I'm glad that you're able to insulate yourself from the consequences of that possibility.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 06:24 PM
O.K. jeff,
You win. Primaries don't matter in either a presidential election nor down ballot races. It's the party apparatus that gets to pick the winner. That would include the media arm of the party as well, no?
If that is the case, and i understand your simply observing and reporting, then what does that say?
Well one thing is the Republican party would appear to be the more democratic party. They did not want Trump to be the winner but got him all the same. Nor do they interfere in down ballot races to the extent that the Democratic party has. Witness the tea party's rise.
But again, it's all stupid and nothing matters. The Democratic party has got a rule somewhere that allows that rigging to take place should there be a challenge from an "as a"? They just didn't have a rule that barred Sanders entry into the presidential primary to begin with?
I'm glad the party apparatus gets to pick the winners for us. Now I know that my vote as well as yours doesn't count after all. The 2016 primary has taught a great many people a lesson in how ineffectual your voting will be should it not correspond to the parties pre-selected winner of the no-contest primary. Primaries are simply televised and reported publicity campaigns with the outcome predetermined by the party apparatus.

You think you've insulated yourself from Neoliberalism?
Trump has sped up the progression is all. Clinton was another mile marker on our way to a Trump like figure. We have long ago abandoned a project of 'We' to a dystopian reality of 'Me' society. Trump is the perfect distillation of a 'Me' authoritarian. Where else was neoliberalism going to go but here?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 06:39 PM
Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley, Lincoln Chafee and Lawrence Lessig were all in on the fix, too?
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 08:04 PM
Let's ignore all the revisionist history going on here and get back to the topic, shall we? With 2019 coming fast, announcements are going to start being made. Julian Castro will be in, along with fellow Texan, Beto O'Rourke; probably Bernie and Biden; I expect Cuomo and Bloomberg, with Gillibrand filling out the New York contingent; then Corey Booker from across the river; maybe some Midwesterners, like Klobuchar and Hickenlooper; and from the West, Inslee. Who else to round out the score?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
You think you've insulated yourself from Neoliberalism?

Not at all. And I have failed to be able to insulate myself from Trumpism, too.
My wife's illness is such now that, together with my vision problems, I am pretty much retired against my will. I mean, even if my eyes weren't going bad, it's damn hard to get much work because Karen needs a lot more supervision now than she did ten years ago. I can't leave town for more than a day, really.

So the little I pull in from DVD sales is all I am making now, together with Karen's VA money. I am three years away from collecting Social Security, and the only other income I am making is part of the monthly rent from one tenant. And that has been iffy for the last six months because of tenant problems. I've actually lost money a few months. And if the economy tanks, I'll lose even more if my current tenant gets screwed over.

So we are pretty vulnerable and have been for the last two or three years.

Sorry, we cannot afford another Trump term in the White House, there is no way in Hell we can survive it.
And we're nowhere near as vulnerable as a lot of others.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 09:34 PM
Here is a bit of wishful thinking. PBS decides to allot 2 hours of prime time to them running for public office, either side. To avail the candidate must agree to stand in front of a mike and camera and explain why he/she is the best candidate to vote for. Another situation might be for one candidate to challenge another candidate to a debate. In that case pre-defined judges would be assigned and the winner of the debate announced (unless it was a draw).

I also wouldn't mind a situation wherein the candidate is questioned by, say, a group of 4 persons (two to each side)

I see no sense in a debate between 20/30 candidates at a time.

TV is the right place, other than door belling. PBS is supported by gov and this would be payback. I remember when ALL tv stations did public announcements and services (one of which was the news). Too bad public services can't return to the good old days. I know, some stations do some public services. I would prefer that public services be pre-announced, and explained.

Once the PBS thing got into high gear the next thing would be to disallow any spending on elections and PBS would offer exposure to all viable candidates. ("viable" to be defined)

Whilst at it I might also suggest that the Dems start working on 'fixing' stuff. Is there any reason, for instance, that we have a federal flood insurance that is paying to rebuild seaside homes of the rich that get flooded every year. They have made runs at restricting insurance when that to be insured is also sure to get flooded year after year.

How about the Dems actually passing a law that would force INDIVIDUALS to put their names on any and all political ads (print, tv, whatever) they pay or or sponsor. Last time they tried the unions fought them tooth and nail. Apparently the unions didn't want to be associated with some of their political ads. This is also true of the donor class in general.

The Dems should pick specific actual problems, that they plan on attacking and solving. No generalities (like: for folks of different color, for children, for food, against murder and mayhem, rape and pillaging, etc) but specific stuff that effects everybody.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 10:02 PM
Whats revisionist NWP?

Ojeda from W.V.

Well Jeff, your situation is not that different from a lot of others including myself. You and your wife's value in society is only as much as you are able to earn in the marketplace. When I can no longer produce I will no longer hold much value either. You are no longer a profitable position of the yield curve in neoliberal marketworld.
I don't like it and find neoliberal politics odious and sociopathic but here we are. It's the market above everything and 'there is no other way' so don't even bring up other ideas. Ideas such as Sanders raised.

My guess is another neoliberal Dollar Bill Clinton play with Beto. He's telegenic and has been a mostly empty vessel of positions and his 'Beto for Texas' campaign website ( Still up) literally drips of neoliberal jingoism.
His vote record is being examined and the push back (mainly aimed at Sanders supporters) by the neolibs and the media has been fierce. This indicates to me that he is the next 'anointed' one.
Bill Gates News coverage of Sanders supporters war on Beto

Note the article never talks about the actual critique any voter, never mind Sanders supporters, might have for Beto's vote. The framing is all about their being a 'war' with an aggressor and a victim....
You've been in the creative field Jeff. What does it mean when a fair critique is seen as an act of war?
Signs are pointing to Beto getting picked for us groundlings to vote for in 2020.
Hillary's still a stalking horse. The recent meltdown of Goldman's Malaysian scam and the possible embarrassment for who knows who in this country, as the scandal risks spreading here, has the possibility of damaging her more than her speaking fees to the Boardroom. Something to keep an eye on. I can see money sloshing around in the charity world to keep that story from blowing up.



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 10:23 PM
JGW,
I agree with most of what you say. I liked the League of Women Voters conducting the debates back before we let the political corporations decide between themselves how the debates would be run. I say 'give it back to the ladies'.
I think the politicians should be decked out like NASCAR. The larger the donation the bigger and better placed the corporate logo patch on their suit.

Sanders has given a clear 10 point plan that he outlined in the Op-Ed of the Washington Post on Thanksgiving. You can read about it here

Oddly, I could not link the the actual op-ed piece from the Washington Post itself. Seems to have disappeared.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
You've been in the creative field Jeff. What does it mean when a fair critique is seen as an act of war?

It means, if it bleeds, it leads, same old same old.
That's why the PBS idea is an idea whose time has come, because PBS still gets taxpayer money and is therefore the appropriate vehicle, along with at least ONE of the C-SPAN channels. Thereafter, campaigning material needs to eventually be restricted to those outlets. The regular news media can continue to cover issues raised by the candidates.

We have to move in the direction of taxpayer funded and regulated campaigning and away from organized money, and that's going to require a reversal of some recent rulings, so it will be very tough.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/29/18 10:42 PM
No one's bothered by the amount of 'charitable' contributions that are taken in by PBS? Koch's? Gates?
Just asking because their has been some whiff of scandal from that direction.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
No one's bothered by the amount of 'charitable' contributions that are taken in by PBS? Koch's? Gates?
Just asking because their has been some whiff of scandal from that direction.

Understood. PBS has been beggared thanks to Republicans and their death by a thousand cuts campaign against public funding. Maybe we Americans can work to restore the network to full public funding again thus negating the need for them to go begging to oligarchs.

It only works if we have the stomach for it and the political will to make it happen.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/30/18 04:57 AM
Quote
It's the party apparatus that gets to pick the winner. That would include the media arm of the party as well, no?

It's not the party apparatus at all. It is Our Corporate Overlords™

They own both parties and the propaganda machine. In 2016 they chose Hillary Clinton and ran her against a racist assh*le. No way she could lose. She lost.

Hilly was s'posed to be president. Worldwide markets would have remained stable, The ACA would be getting shored up, we'd be seeing incremental change for the better. Capitalism would continue to lurch from crisis to crisis but would still reign supreme. The rich get richer and the poor stay poor.

2016 was a finger in their eye.




Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/30/18 02:36 PM
Except things have been getting incrementally worse for decades now on every front.
Aside from a growing cottage industry of 'no actually, it's really getting better' writers and pundits, by most measures it's getting worse.
On reflection, there was only two candidates that spoke to that situation. One is in the White House and the other is still working like a Roman to fix what he can.
I didn't agree with the formers empty promises and sh!t talk. He did, though, speak to much of the economic pain and destruction that global capitalism has brought. Again, much like Sanders.
One party let the process play out as they had no real way to but the brakes on him. The other party rigged the primary away from the populist candidate, having undemocratically preselected the winner and went on to lose. Theirs something tragically funny in all this and yet I fear it will play out all over in 2020.
Face it, it's the candidate that can deliver the most compelling vision for the future will have the best chance. The voters are not happy in neoliberal market land anymore. They want change that Corporate won't allow. I don't think incrementalism is going to cut it. Its a time for bold policy. Trumps bold. Sanders bold. The rest of the field... Meh.
I'm hoping there is a bold enough candidate to come forward and offer solutions for the problems facing America beyond colledge towns. Having some kind of grass roots qualifications is a suprising proposal coming from such a bankrupt and corrupted organization as the DNC.
What should have been an obvious lesson of Trumps election (bold ideas, if phoney, with small dollar donations, grass roots mobilization) has been lost by the usual scapegoating, redirecting, finger pointing and doubling down.
I don't believe the midterm blue wave was accomplished as much by party competency (remember the fortune poured in the Georgia special election with Ossof that lost large compared to the squeaker in Oklahoma the party chose to ignore?) as it was by counter forces generated by the POTUS and his majority.
My guess is the democrat party have to go bold and trust the voters to pick the winner. The corporate centrists have proven out if touch and incompetent in 2016. Let's hope they are restrained in some way and aren't allowed to pick the candidate in 2020.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/30/18 05:58 PM
Quote
the democrat party have to go bold and trust the voters to pick the winner

We've got upwards of fifty people threatening to throw their hats in the ring. The press will publish stories about all of them, judge the reactions and favor those who get the most clicks/views/buys with more stories.

The action right now favors Bernie and Beto, Socialist vs Capitalist.

Berniebots(Socialists) are getting in some early blows to try and knock Beto out before the race starts. Beto may be progressive but he's a capitalist. All capitalists are the enemy, regardless of party.

Quote
things have been getting incrementally worse for decades now on every front.
No, they aren't. The ACA has led us to a place where Medicare For All might become a reality. Gay rights have made remarkable strides. An increased federal minimum wage hike is on the horizon and is becoming a reality in many cities and states. Free college tuition and student loan reform has entered mainstream political discussion and is becoming a reality in many nations as they realize that an educated populace is the key to the future.

I see a democratic sweep coming in 2020. And I think, despite sustained attacks by the socialists, his is the name most likely to catch fire among liberal and progressive(capitalist) voters.

We seldom hear much about Bernie's many and glaring weaknesses were he to become president. He has no interest in race and gender issues. He has no interest in foreign policy or diplomacy. He has a deep understanding of a handful of domestic economic issues and beyond that he's pretty much an empty suit. We owe a lot to Bernie but I don't think we owe him the Presidency. Any more than we owed it to Clinton.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/30/18 08:27 PM
My hope is that the field gets whittled quickly, and that the candidates spend as little effort as possible trying to destroy each other, rather than presenting positive ideas. Bernie-ites are already trying that with O'Rourke, and deceptively, too. That does not bode well for the actual party (which Senator Sanders is not a member of). It's ironic, yet unsurprising, that the most vociferous (and disingenuous) Bernie defenders aren't even Democrats, either. Why the Bernie Movement Must Crush Beto O’Rourke (Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine)

And, Chait notes, Beto's critics don't represent most Democrats; they don't even represent typical Bernie voters. They are the most left of the left-wing supporters. The threat that they see O'Rourke poses is that a) he is too "mainstream", and b) he does a better job speaking to minorities and women, and might engage the Obama coalition.

Personally, I think Booker and Harris are the greater threat to Sanders voters. They just can't see that yet. What most Beenie voters don't notice is that Bernie won whites, but not women and minorities. O'Rourke can do both, which is why he is a threat.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/30/18 10:33 PM
Quote
Beto's critics don't represent most Democrats; they don't even represent typical Bernie voters. They are the most left of the left-wing

And they use the word "neoliberal" a lot. Because paleoliberals were somehow socialists like themselves....

Not that there's anything wrong with socialists. I want to live in a socialist world where everyone is housed, clothed, and fed. A world where the ambitious can grow rich and surround themselves with luxury, and where the artists and hippies can lay around and smoke weed and the regular people in between can get nice jobs to buy nice houses and cars.
A world where war isn't necessary or desirable and everyone just gets along famously with each other because who cares what god you pray to or what sex you want to be or who you want to f*ck. A world where it doesn't matter what color your skin is or what side of what border you were born on.

You know...a socialist utopia.

From each, according to his abilities, and to each, according to his needs.

It's coming, but not in 2020. I'm already calling the race for Beto.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/30/18 11:41 PM
Wages have stalled out for decades.
We've killed hundreds of thousands of people.
We imprison more people per capita than any other country.
We pay more than all other developed countries for health care.
Infant mortalility is high.
U.S. Lifespans are declining.
Gun deaths are increasing
Cost of housing as percentage of wages at historic high.
Household debt is increasing.

etc, etc,

But we got gay marriages and transgender bathrooms. so I guess s'all good.
The rest of the conversation getting injected with progressive ideas came primarily from Sanders campaign. Yes a socialist.

But your right Gregor. Your characterization of socialism has brought me back to reality. I was foolish to think things are getting bad. That neoliberalism has proven to be a fraud and yet another Ivy League grift for white collar criminals to explain their grift as 'the only way'.

Things are indeed better. Just hop in the car and drive in any direction and the evidence is all around for me to see.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/31/18 12:01 AM
Beto is the the favorite. He has the young 'executive model' look about him.
The phoney framing that keeps oozing into the mainstream corporate media of a war getting waged by Sanders supporters is absurd but not unexpected. I remember all the misogynistic 'Bernie Bro' Sh!t talk coming from various Clinton friendly media. Same play.
Jonathan Chait is one of those morons, like Bill Crystall, that continues to be wrong on most subjects that these corporate funded co called public intellectuals are famous for. His gulf war support, reasoning and defense of his reasoning is a constant theme writing and is worth anyone's time to read before taking his opinion or political characterization seriously. His other theme is pearl clutching over his understanding of Marx. Spoiler alert: It's bad.

When I rail about the stupidity of the freaks and morons involved in flying the plane into the mountain in 2016 and yet somehow crawl out of the smoking crater offering more stupid analysis and somehow keep their high salaried jobs, Jonathan Chait is the type I have in mind. His position on the Gulf War disqualifies him as a serious intellectual. That's not an attack of a Sanders supporter but a critique of Chiat. See the difference? No?

He's also a scab at the New Yorker but that might not matter much for most here.

But here we have it. Beto is unquestionably good. Don't ask to see his voting record and worse yet, express an opinion on it. To do so makes you a dupe of the Marxist Utopian peddling pretender Sanders, a fanatic or both.

The Dem neoliberal's have their man. It's looking like 2016 all over again. A neoliberal in a progressive wrapper against a New Deal democrat in a Democratic Socialist wrapper.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/31/18 11:55 AM
An interesting article of this relentless media trolling of Sanders supporters :

"There’s nothing that our party needs less than a relitigation of 2016. But it’s important to say that Sanders was a protest candidate: a septuagenarian left-winger from a small state, he was the kind of candidate who usually gets 5%. Instead, he got 42%.

It’s worth asking why he did so well, without getting into the personal terms that so often have animated this question. And if I could offer a single reason, it is that a huge part of the party, nearly half, did not like being told whom to vote for… ."

Full article




Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/31/18 02:26 PM
Ring, meet hat. Elizabeth Warren launches 2020 presidential exploratory committee (nbc) First announcement, and it's not even 2019 yet!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 12/31/18 10:26 PM
You could do worse than Warren. She won't be a darling of the big money boys on Wall St. Win or lose, I'd welcome having her voice in the debates and the issues she's sure to raise. Might even say the "P" word.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/01/19 12:05 AM
Sadly, she fails in charisma and oratorical skills. I just don't foresee her generating a lot of excitement among voters. She's a bean counter and a regulator, great at what she does but do I want her running the country...?
Better than Trump by far so there's that.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/01/19 12:38 AM
Hafta agree with you there Gregor. She's not a real live wire or has any Clash references but I'm glad she'll lend a voice to sanders and, more importantly, push ideas instead if product or treat the primary like a brand roll out.
She's no friend of Big Mo so that's a good thing and should make her arguments more genuine.
Holy moley, imagine! The democrats having big ideas for big problems. It would be a nice change from selling Republican with Zero Calories.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/01/19 05:43 AM
She'll introduce a few ideas that will catch the public interest and be picked up by the other candidates including the ultimate future president. So it'll be worth having her in the race even if she doesn't make it out of Iowa.
It should be open to either gender and any race, but I suspect the Democrats should run a White man to get all the misogynistic (men AND women) and secret racists on board. I think there are a lot of both and they may not even realize they are. But in 2016 a lot of White women voted against Hillary and I think it comes down to many women not trusting other women because subconsciously they see them as rivals. Now with Trump in charge, a lot of misogyny and racism has been "allowed", or even encouraged.

Too bad we are not as good as we should be, because having a woman as President would probably be a great improvement.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/02/19 12:14 AM
I think that's how it's gonna turn out this time around anyway, PIA, we had a black guy for two terms and ran a woman last time, the Democratic Party is not entirely made up of POC and women nor is it mandatory for them to run non-white and non-male candidates just to prove that they are more diverse than the Republicans.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/02/19 07:01 PM
Were gunna need a bigger car......

The left coast inna house!
[Linked Image from cdn.newspunch.com]

Good-bye Bernie

(Originally published on Facebook)
JEFFERY HAAS·WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2, 2019

I've probably exhausted every available Bernie thread on the internet lately to say the same thing...

When Bernie was a young man, doing carpentry and odd jobs, and giving the occasional impassioned speech or doing the occasional sit-in, social democracy or democratic socialism was a very romantic thing for an intellectual Jewish transplant from Brooklyn to do in the wilds of Vermont.

Imagine it for a moment...

[Linked Image from ih1.redbubble.net]

Your young bespectacled sweaty face plastered across the front page of the local paper, taking the town of Burlington by storm, your impassioned rhetoric swelling the bosoms of erudite young coeds, winning the local election and trying to make good on a few erstwhile and yet earnest entreaties to fair wages and decently affordable tuition.

Yep, democratic socialism or social democracy, whichever it was, must have been a huge rush for the young Bernie Sanders, because for a guy like that, being a regular old Democrat in 1971 meant you were a lot more like the past candidates of the Democratic Party, which meant you were a lot more like Hubert Humphrey or George McGovern, which meant that you were like one of the guys who lost to Richard Milhous Nixon. It meant that you were like one of the establishment, and in early 1970's Vermont, where it was still very much The Sixties, that wasn't something you wanted to be.

The fact is, Bernie Sanders stopped being a social democrat or democratic socialist the day he first set foot on Capitol Hill.
It's not because he became a sellout or a hypocrite, it's because the Democratic Socialists of America have never allowed themselves to field candidates for the House, the Senate or the White House. It's just not in their DNA for some reason.

And as you might want to point out, Bernie has been an FDR style liberal New Deal Democrat his entire life in the House and Senate.
That is what he is. But Bernie clings to old romantic notions and sentimental trappings.

A lot of ex-hippies underwent much more radical transformations, and found themselves on Wall Street as financial consultants, or in Silicon Valley, or in the halls of neocon think tanks the way former campus radical Elliot Abrams did.

And yet despite their three piece suits, many of them left one tiny tuft of long hair tucked under their collar to remind them every so often that they can still "let their freak flag fly".
They still want to be nonconformist, just not in a threatening or scary way.

And for Bernie, refusing to join the Democratic Party and running around pronouncing himself a democratic socialist means that he can tell himself that he's still the brash iconoclastic non-conformist...and not a sentimental old fool, because only a sentimental old fool would pass up repeated opportunities to completely overturn and rebuild the Democratic Party in his own image, literally making the DNC "HIS BITCH".

And if anyone doubts that is possible, I might remind them that Mr. Sanders raised almost 300 million dollars with zero corporate funding, purely through grass roots techniques at a time when everyone else said it was impossible.

Flipping the DNC and making the party his own would have been a walk in the park, given his considerable mojo and charisma, and given the fact that he could have started the effort all the way back in 2008, after another young and brash nonconformist with the funny name of Barack Hussein Obama did much the same to Hillary Clinton.
And had he bothered to do so, Bernie Sanders would have BEEN the Democratic candidate for POTUS in 2016 and Hillary would have been munching on popcorn in upstate New York.

And Donald Trump would have been a minor footnote in history, because Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders would have won by a landslide.

So, as much as I love Bernie Sanders, I am forced to reckon with the fact that Bernie, despite some of his good ideas, is a sentimental old fool. And I voted for him and supported him right from the very first day he announced, so this is not a hate piece against him, it is more of a mournful revelation about what might have been and was not meant to be, all because of the need to cling to silly notions of the past, which is what we must stop doing if we intend to win in 2020.

Good-bye Bernie.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/03/19 12:08 PM
Obvious trolling.
Bernie understands politics. Populist politics.
Hillary did not.
Obama did but, as Trump learned from, it can be phoney and you can get away with it.
The Democratic Party is a party of the top 10%. The credentialed class. Lanyard People in today's economy. All they do is talk about 'access to' or 'opportunities for'. The language is easy to spot. Always indirect. Always some vague meriticratic language with inevitable means testing limitations.
Democrats have been the party of the credentialed professional class. The technocrats. They hate populism and have a disdain for the working class. They went to the right schools, made the right career choices, made the right life choices. They're exemplars of meritocracy.
They're also hawkish. Eternally trying to pick up votes from the right wing by running Vets and military officers as some kind of bona fides on their willingness to use state violence. To prove they have balls to the mythical moderate republicans and to signal to the world their foriegn policy approach.
Economically they are neoliberal. Pathologically preferring a 'market' oriented solution to social problems. A tax incentive as opposed to direct action thru the state with most of the benefits accruing to their 10% constituents, austerity and harsh disciplining for the rest. They brought about the largest incarceration system the world has seen and militarized the police force to enforce imposed order on the swollen working class and poor.
They treat politics as a brandind exercise and product rollout. Always trying to come up with the right and necessary ingredients of aspirational tone and a smattering of rhetoric borrowed from the left, with an appropriate dose of virtue signaling to the right and donor class. All left oriented talk is forgotten once elected.
It was not nor should it be Sanders job to reform the Democratic Party. That's not politics nor how it works, is not possible to do and is a red herring you've concocted Jeff. Instead Sanders gave voters alternative rather than embarking on some kind of mythical internal party identity loyalty and some kind of follow on reform criteria you insist must be met. Much easier and effective to offer a viable alternative to the self reinforcing party hierarchy. It sure wasn't the corporate takeover path Jeff, so where do you find evidence that it should be for the left?
In the end, Sanders addressed peoples material concerns with bold direct policy proposals. The establishment candidate, caught flat footed and unprepared for this political challenge and having nothing to counter with, reminiscent of her campaigns tactics with Obama, she fell back on dog whistles, scorn and back room dealing to clinch the nomination.
She went down to the Republican challenger who used a different and darker kind of populism. Phony populism to be sure but effective. What's ironic was the fact that the Republican Party, displaying far more democratic tendencies within it, allowed the democratic nominating process play out regardless of the outcome. Centrists Dems will never admit to this nor condemn the corruption within uthe very undemocratic Drmocratic party. Sadly ironic and one wonders how much pearl clutching and Muellar investigation hyperventilating would be going on right now if it was found out that POTUS had engaged in similar financial skulduggery with the RNC before the election.
What's telling is the willfull ability of the Democratic Party to not learn. They have committed themselves to neoliberalism and are not going back to the politics of their parents. They helped dismantle the New Deal and are not looking back nor questioning the wisdom of doing so. They represent the lanyards. The self described creative class, the 'innovators' and entrepreneurs. They have turned their backs on the losers of this Chicago economy. Labor, working class, minorities and the poor.
The hard right has been stripping them off for decades while the lanyards have been showing them the door.
It would not be possible to reform these greed heads Jeff. It not Sanders job. Your insistance that Sanders tilt at windmills by bending the knee to the lanyards is a fallacy and serve no useful purpose. He has unleashed an awareness of a different kind of politics. One the party has largely spurned and, to its horror, has been found appealing with broad popular support. It turns out laissez faire economics sucks and austerity for most has a political down side.
Instead of embracing Sanders positions the party, from its recent actions, is looking to maintain its ideological grip and is looking for some kind of Sanders killer in the race for 2020. A combination of virtue signaling to Sanders base but ideologically committed to the Lanyards as Bill, Hillary and Obama.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/03/19 02:37 PM
In the interest of fair and balanced posting, let me also throw in an image of your champion as the left and right see it:

[Linked Image from commondreams.org]










grin





Originally Posted by chunkstyle
It was not nor should it be Sanders job to reform the Democratic Party. That's not politics nor how it works, is not possible to do and is a red herring you've concocted Jeff. Instead Sanders gave voters alternative rather than embarking on some kind of mythical internal party identity loyalty and some kind of follow on reform criteria you insist must be met. Much easier and effective to offer a viable alternative to the self reinforcing party hierarchy. It sure wasn't the corporate takeover path Jeff, so where do you find evidence that it should be for the left?

So you're saying that it is not a candidate's job to RE-FORM a party, and yet what did Trump do? It's exactly what he did, it's exactly what the Tea Party did, and it's exactly what Roosevelt did in his time or do you actually believe that the Democrats of the Wilsonian era were similar to Roosevelt?

It is not possible to do? Talk about mythical, let's explore the mythical and the viable. What's mythical about third party POTUS electability, aside from damn near everything?
What's viable about an alternative that has not and cannot seem to win elections?

And please, just because you vehemently disagree with my prior essay, that doesn't mean it is trolling. I would never dream of labeling you a troll. Keep it classy.

I'll tell you what trolling is. It's plastering a picture of Hillary and labeling it "my champion" when I've clearly stated she was not.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/03/19 08:30 PM
It just dawned on me that a LOT of the stuff being argued about has to do with privatization. Healthcare for all, for instance, is antithetical to privatization so is not deemed right for polite society. This is also true when discussing money in politics. What we have, right now, is a voting system completely in the grips of 'privatization'. As far as I can tell, the error seems to be in those things that should never be privatized. Some of those things are politics, war, healthcare, education, police, and firemen. When that stuff gets privatized then the only people who win are the very, very rich. They are the only ones who have the bucks to pay for the 'best'. Their schools are very good but grossly over priced. Same with their private police, doctors and even their political candidates.

I think what I am suggesting is that privatization has gone MUCH further than it should have a number of years ago and its continuing to this day as the very rich continue their onslaught on what should be free to citizens and provided by all citizens as part of the public good. The interesting thing is that the supposed members of the 'democratic socialists' are not supporting the socialization of this stuff so much as making the privatized stuff available to them that can't pay the bills for it. I find it all very strange. The fact that socializing stuff that everybody needs also means that everybody gets to pay for this stuff. For some unknown reason the 'democratic socialists' seem to believe that all this stuff falls from the skies which seems to me to be at least as bad as the privatization itself.

If you want healthcare for all then the 'all' has to be part of the solution - just not a bunch of 1 percenters. If, again for instance, healthcare will be provided for all then this means that, unless we are to be bankrupt in about 2 years, we need to take control of a bunch of greed businesses. Drugs and Healthcare machine producers come to mind. Basically, to provide healthcare for all the entire healthcare industry, lock stock and barrel, needs to be seriously either taken over and regulated. No more healthcare insurance, that's just an expense that we don't need anymore and the revolving door of the FDA goes away. Gov also continues to gather data and will have to also control just what healthcare does and is. In that regard they should regulate medical procedures based on outcomes. We currently have a system where there are a number of procedures that just don't work. (google "healthcare procedures that don't work" for a list of some of them)

What I am saying is that I think that most of the arguments are over stuff that makes no sense and are more distraction than anything else. Healthcare is consumed by the problems of having a system of healthcare for profit. THAT is the problem! All the rest is, basically, a distraction. Same with schools. In Washington state there is a school district that is out of money. They can't build, they they can't hire more teachers, they have no money. In the last election the PARENTS of the children, in the school system, didn't vote (something like 18% actually voted). People blame the school districts even though the voters (those actually in charge) could actually fix the problem if they actually voted. This is my reason that I think that voting should be mandatory. Seems that the voter in the U.S.A. just can't take time out, from their incredibly important lives, to do the basics and actually vote! This is, I think, a pretty basic problem and if we can't fix that one then all the rest is just a given, ie. we give up and depend on 'the lord' to make it all right (them who take care of themselves now only have myth value)

So, basically, we are a lazy people, unwilling to actually embrace any thought of being responsible for our own actions or lack thereof. If this doesn't get fixed I fear its all gonna come down around our heads.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/03/19 08:35 PM
Well Jeff I'm not sure what to make of it but a bespeckled sweaty faced transplant intellectual jew that is now a sentimental old fool kinda feels like trolling to a Sanders supporter but if that wasen't your intention then I apologize. Dog whistling?

It's amazing how relentless you are in condemning Sanders for his refusal to bend the knee or failing to remake the Democratic party in his own image.
No, it's not his responsibility. I don't even know what that means or what that would look like. Would he have to buy it with his 3oo million? Does he go Oprah with a 'you have a new car and YOU have a new car!'. Tell me what making the Democratic party a bitch looks like or mean.
It does divert coversation away from Sanders political position that's challenged the governing power for decades though. I don't know if that's your intention or not. Should any outside challenger remake a political party before running "as a"?

Franklin was a class traitor. A rare thing in politics from the top. He understood his people well and, I believe, knew how to manage them better than any democrat since. Opportunities were unique to his time but you could easily compare his administration to Obama's and draw your own comparison. Franklin didn't have a Gietner in his cabinet and hated Harvard men. It's remarkable how much he didn't allow bankers to craft economic policy. Not so with Obama.

Again, this centrist vs. socialist posting war is futile and can't be won. I really don't understand where your coming from with all the qualifiers you insist on from Sanders. You seldom talk of his record or ideas preferring credentialing and qualifying.


Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Well Jeff I'm not sure what to make of it but a bespeckled sweaty faced transplant intellectual jew that is now a sentimental old fool kinda feels like trolling to a Sanders supporter but if that wasen't your intention then I apologize. Dog whistling?

It's amazing how relentless you are in condemning Sanders for his refusal to bend the knee or failing to remake the Democratic party in his own image.
No, it's not his responsibility. I don't even know what that means or what that would look like. Would he have to buy it with his 3oo million? Does he go Oprah with a 'you have a new car and YOU have a new car!'. Tell me what making the Democratic party a bitch looks like or mean.
It does divert coversation away from Sanders political position that's challenged the governing power for decades though. I don't know if that's your intention or not. Should any outside challenger remake a political party before running "as a"?

Franklin was a class traitor. A rare thing in politics from the top. He understood his people well and, I believe, knew how to manage them better than any democrat since. Opportunities were unique to his time but you could easily compare his administration to Obama's and draw your own comparison. Franklin didn't have a Gietner in his cabinet and hated Harvard men. It's remarkable how much he didn't allow bankers to craft economic policy. Not so with Obama.

Again, this centrist vs. socialist posting war is futile and can't be won. I really don't understand where your coming from with all the qualifiers you insist on from Sanders. You seldom talk of his record or ideas preferring credentialing and qualifying.

Fer chrissakes, as long as you continue to portray me as a centrist or a Hillary guy, there is no way you'll understand what I am getting at. Clearly if you insist that I am a centrist, or a neoliberal, or a Hillary supporter, everything I'm talking about won't make sense to you. It's as if you're somehow reading a heavily redacted version of my posts and responses, thus every time I talk about how I admire Bernie's ideas, you see giant black Sharpie squares covering my words.

Let me know if you can log on to the REAL Capitol Hill Blue page, because that censorship doohickey is making it impossible for me to communicate my ideas to you.

Or...is it just that you're averse to the notion that I simply am convinced that Bernie took the worst possible route? I can't tell if it's that or you're reading a Chinese version of the site with heavy censorship going on.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/04/19 01:56 PM
Ok Jeff, your a Sanders supporter and it's mainly styles of campaigning were disagreeing about.
If I understand you correctly, Sanders needed to make the party his Bitch for him to be the winner of 2016. Is that a correct assessment?
You've also, if not condoned the Clinton/DNC grift,dismissed it as a more or less 'hey, wadja expect? Bernie's not a democrat so alls fair... Correct?
Now there's a final analysis by you of Sanders political career starting from his mild man mannered youth in the rusticated hills of Vermont to his eventual nonconformist golden years resulting in his sentimental old fool status. Maybe I'm dense (and it wouldn't be the first time) but is this irony?
I'm not sure what it's for but my take away was Sanders made the critical flaw of not declaring himself a Democrat, remaking the party in his own image, then capping that accomplishment by running for President? Is that a fair summary or was the intention irony?

We could engage in that type of conversation or we could instead discuss and debate what he's actually doing. Now. As opposed to a mythical 'shoulda done'.
Like getting concessions out of multinationals to pay their U.S. Workers a living wage.
Hosting live video conferences on climate change, health care.
Creating a political campaign funding apparatus out of his own presidential campaign. 'Our Revolution'.
Hosting an international left wing convention to begin organizing on an international scale leftist ideas and opportunities. Recognizing the far right is way ahead here.
Introducing legislation for the passage of Medicare for all and making it a central feature in the mid terms.

Frankly, if you've been discussing these activities as well as others I've omitted and I didn't notice you have the, again, my apologies.
If your 'bye Bernie' was in the style of Jonathan Swift's Modest Proposal, I didn't catch it. All I keep reading is what Sanders should have done.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
We could engage in that type of conversation or we could instead discuss and debate what he's actually doing. Now. As opposed to a mythical 'shoulda done'.
Like getting concessions out of multinationals to pay their U.S. Workers a living wage.
Hosting live video conferences on climate change, health care.
Creating a political campaign funding apparatus out of his own presidential campaign. 'Our Revolution'.
Hosting an international left wing convention to begin organizing on an international scale leftist ideas and opportunities. Recognizing the far right is way ahead here.
Introducing legislation for the passage of Medicare for all and making it a central feature in the mid terms.

Frankly, if you've been discussing these activities as well as others I've omitted and I didn't notice you have the, again, my apologies.
If your 'bye Bernie' was in the style of Jonathan Swift's Modest Proposal, I didn't catch it. All I keep reading is what Sanders should have done.

I'm all for having the kind of conversation that illuminates what he HAS been doing since 2016 because (A) the man is not stupid, and (B) he has indeed been VERY busy.
And I've been watching, and applauding.

Our Revolution opened its doors and turned on the lights immediately after the 2016 debacle. And so far it has helped something like 100 or more candidates if you include all the down-line people in state and local politics. There may be even more that I wasn't aware of, but the point is, Our Revolution has been very busy.
More applause.

Yes Chunk, my ONLY issue is that the decision to stay outside the party was a poor judgment call, nothing else. I too thought the odds might be in his favor at the beginning but I too saw what the DNC did, and it's not a case of "what'd ya expect" as much as it is a case of (for me anyway) "Sigh, the more things change, the more they stay the same...or get worse".
I really had hoped that his candidacy would spark some tidal forces in the DNC and forced a deeper look at their rules. But as you pointed out, they'd already crowned Hillz as the Golden One before Bernie even announced and they'd already made up their minds.

Look at that bitch Debbie Wasserman Schultz. For me, just looking at who and what she is made me realize that Bernie was screwed, and there wasn't a damn thing anyone could do about it.

Believe me, both Karen and I were rooting for him all the way to the bitter end. I am only making that "sentimental old fool" comment because I'm still in shock that his own electoral apparatus wasn't out ahead of all this.
You have to have one of those close friends who is willing to tell you what you do not want to hear, and those close individuals should have told Bernie that running as an outsider would never force the DNC internal apparatus to move once Hillz had been crowned.

So, I am forced to come to that conclusion because it appears that Bernie took a very dangerous gamble. And for what? A label??

I don't know, Chunk...I just don't know and I don't understand.
But believe me, I am not a Hillary supporter, not for POTUS anyway.
I would have viewed her election (had she won) as "a survivable event" and as a "mediocre presidency" at best...better than Trump but not by much.

To paraphrase P.J. O'Rourke:
"Hillary is the second worst thing that could happen to this country."
Interesting article about Elizabeth Warren's DNA test kerfluffle:

Mainstream Media Is Blowing Its Coverage Of Elizabeth Warren’s DNA Test

It looks like maybe one Warren critic raised a stink about it, and every mainstream press article quotes him and a lot of Republicans who are piling on. But funny thing: Nobody bothered to ask any Native People chiefs or political leaders! They all pretty much support Warren because she has been so supportive of tribal interests in her career. Most of them are proud of their heritage and honor anyone who discovers their own Native ancestry.

I bet the only real objection anybody has to DNA comes from tribes that are kicking people out so the can boost their casino checks! They are afraid that DNA tests could admit more people to their tribe, but of course Warren is NOT claiming that at all. And now, because her test backs up her stories about her family history, it just makes all of Trump's mocking horribly racist!

Personally, I think her face does show some Native ancestry, but I'm quite familiar with mixed-race people's appearances. (Because I am one, and I'm married to one. smile )
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/07/19 05:37 AM
Ok Jeff,
Just to show I'm not a Bernie fanatic, here's a very good article that has some excellent points to argue about his run in 2016 and likely 2020.
Still, all in all, hey may be the best of the barrel which may see the party go the way if the Whigs (as has been perpetually predicted for the Republican Party).
I can easily see a repeat if 2016 and all the hijinks leading to an alienated left not bothering to show up to vote.
Time will tell if we make it that far.

"As the MPP’s Nick Brana noted right after the 2018 mid-term elections, the contests ought to have been “a serious wake-up call for progressives” who dream of gaining power by taking over the Democratic Party. By Brana’s account, “The blue wave [was] a corporate wave that…swept in the same kind of Democratic politicians that drove working people into Donald Trump’s arms after eight years of Obama. When Democrats busy themselves serving the wealthy again, the result will be an even sharper lurch to the authoritarian right."

If Bernie runs.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/07/19 06:12 PM
Quote
I'm not a Bernie fanatic

No, you're a socialist, even Bernie is not really far enough left for you. I sympathize, I just don't see big social changes coming anytime soon or major rule or strategy changes within the Democratic Party to become more inclusive of the socialist agenda.

It's what I like to think of as reality.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/07/19 08:14 PM
Uhhhh O.K.,
Who's saying the Democrats are going to be embracing anything left of their current corporate positioning? I think I've already predicted a scenario where it's highly likely the Democratic Party will further alienate it's left and may lead to a split. My hope is that it does and is necessary for there to ba a space to open up and we have a real debate as the elections are getting scheduled into the time slots. Kinda already begun. Buckle up!
Over the last three years I'd be hard put to say anyone here has had a firm grip on what the emerging realities were going to be, including myself and your cracked crystal ball Gregor.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/08/19 05:34 AM
Certainly no one predicted a Trump win in 2016.
Except maybe rporter314.

We'll see how me and my cracked crystal ball do on this Beto prediction.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/09/19 03:27 PM
Duly noted. You support the guy who supports the idea of supporting something.

grin
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/09/19 05:35 PM
I don't necessarily support Beto. I just think he has an excellent chance of winning if he chooses to run.

There is no candidate, right, left, or center who I believe can accomplish anything of note. I will support and vote for whomever gets the Democratic nomination.

Kamala Harris, Sherrod Brown, and Elizabeth Warren are all okay by me.
Biden and Sanders not so much. Julian Castro and that black mayor from New Jersey who used to play ball or something need not apply.

It's all about charisma. Beto has it.








Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/09/19 05:44 PM
Quote
I think I've already predicted a scenario where it's highly likely the Democratic Party will further alienate it's left and may lead to a split.

That's not so much a prediction as a hope for an eventual split so you can jump on the third party bandwagon.

The way things are actually looking is that lefties are getting elected by voters all over the place because demographics are trending leftward. The Democratic Party has not really begun to adjust yet but they will. Not enough to satisfy you, but enough to prevent an actual split. The socialization of capitalism is a slow and unsteady work in progress.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/09/19 10:26 PM
"That's not so much a prediction as a hope for an eventual split so you can jump on the third party bandwagon."

Oh Hell Yeah!

Any force that releases us from the death grip of moldering, feckless political nihilism found in the composting Democratic party will be a welcome relief.
Party leadership has an instinctive will to kill off it's left. They have no ideas
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/11/19 09:24 PM
Quote
Any force that releases us from the death grip of moldering, feckless political nihilism found in the composting Democratic party will be a welcome relief.

Maybe it would be. But it's not going to happen. The more likely scenario is that any split in the Democratic party simply gives over more power to Republicans.

But I don't think it's going to come to that. More and more Progressive Democrats and Democratic Socialists are going to get elected. Just as the TEA Party dragged the Republicans to the right, the progressives will drag Democrats to the left.

2020 baby! Things are gonna be changing for the better.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/17/19 10:46 PM
"If you have strayed, all is forgiven, but you better come to Jesus right now because memory is long, and history judges the cowardly squish far more harshly than the honest enemy. And you can’t say that no one was there at the time to tell you that this was it—this was the pivotal moment where you had to make the right choice."

It's Bernie, B!tch
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/18/19 12:09 AM
Hey, I'm okay with Bernie, if he gets nominated I'll be proud to vote for him. Just like last time.

It's his turn after all...
Originally Posted by Greger
More and more Progressive Democrats and Democratic Socialists are going to get elected. Just as the TEA Party dragged the Republicans to the right, the progressives will drag Democrats to the left.

This is what I keep talking about. I've spent hours talking about this, here on CHB and elsewhere. The Tea Party and Freedom Caucus takeovers, and the Trump takeovers of the GOP are a blueprint on how it is done, and there is no reason why we can't simply use the same methodologies on our side.
It is cheap, it is effective and transformative, and as far as Bernie goes, if he sees the sea change in the party, maybe he will be smart enough to finally JOIN so that he can be more than just a write-in wet dream for Republicans.

Yeah Chunk, I know...you don't believe in it or believe it possible by any stretch.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/23/19 01:34 AM
Quote
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (29, D-N.Y.), Max Rose (31, D-N.Y.), Haley Stevens (35, D-Mich.), Lauren Underwood (32, D-Ill.), Abby Finkenauer (30, D-Iowa), Ilhan Omar (37, D-Minn.) ... and 14 other freshman members of Congress, comprising one of the most diverse classes in United States history.

At the start of the 115th Congress in January 2017, there were just five millennials (individuals born between 1981 and 1996) in the House of Representatives. But as of January 2018, when the 116th Congress convened, there are 26. According to Pew, more than one-fifth of the 91 congressional freshmen are millennials, and two-thirds (14) of those representatives are Democrats.

Surely you've stopped by Huffpo and seen this article?

That's demographics at work.


Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/26/19 12:16 PM
Richard Ojeda Drops Out Of Presidential Race After Giving Up State Senate Seat To Run (HuffPo). First casualty.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/26/19 04:21 PM
I didn't figure he'd make it to Iowa. He's a Republican, he'll find another way to attach himself to a government teat.
I was under the impression he is a Democrat.

Yup, here he is, Richard Ojeda - Democrat. (albeit a "Conserv-a-Dem")

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/27/19 02:06 PM
He's so principled he'll attach any label that furthers his career.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/27/19 06:19 PM
He voted for Trump. That's really all I need to dismiss him as a principled candidate or a man that can be trusted to hold office.

It appears a bit of a hubbub is taking place around the Starbucks executive planning to run as an Independent. He aint got nuthin' the Democrats aint got and is likely to be ignored by voters.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/28/19 04:25 PM
Nate Silver had this to say about Schultz...

Quote
it’s unbelievably arrogant for Howard Schultz to think that ‘Howard Schultz, as an independent, on a platform of deficit reduction, for president’ is the answer to any question that anybody has ever asked about anything,”


He's also against healthcare reform...

This might be one of those Neoliberals I've heard about.
Schultz talks about not being able to afford Medicare For All like everybody gets it for free. Currently we don't even get it for free when we turn 65, after a lifetime of paying in. People under 65 would be paying a lot more for coverage (to buy in to Medicare) than they would pay upon reaching 65. Nobody serious actually thinks Medicare For All means free National Health for everybody.

Moving toward that would be very gradual.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/30/19 04:50 PM
It appears to me that Shultz feels that Billionaires are under-represented in the Democratic Party.

Quote
"When I hear people espousing free government-paid college, free government-paid health care, and a free government job for everyone -- on top of a $21 trillion debt -- the question is, how are we paying for all this and not bankrupting the country?"

How, Howard? By taxing rich motherf*ckers like you, that's how.
No wonder he wants Democrats to lose...

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 01/30/19 07:20 PM
I was, frankly, shocked at the "tin ear" responses of Bloomberg and Schultz, really demonstrating that they are no more qualified to be president than Trump. I think both of their campaigns essentially ended today. In brief, they overreacted, lied, and showed their true colors: they THINK they're qualified because they're rich, period. That's not how it works, buds.
Originally Posted by Greger
Nate Silver had this to say about Schultz...

Quote
it’s unbelievably arrogant for Howard Schultz to think that ‘Howard Schultz, as an independent, on a platform of deficit reduction, for president’ is the answer to any question that anybody has ever asked about anything,”


He's also against healthcare reform...

This might be one of those Neoliberals I've heard about.

Apparently not, because as we've all been told in the most shrill tones imaginable, any and all Democrats are all neoliberals, merely by virtue of their membership in the party, thus it is wrong and immoral to vote for any Democrat whatsoever.

[/sarcasm] rolleyes
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/01/19 03:49 AM
Quote
Is it too soon to be talking 2020?
It's never too early to discuss getting rid of Fatass. smile
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/01/19 02:22 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by Greger
Nate Silver had this to say about Schultz...

Quote
it’s unbelievably arrogant for Howard Schultz to think that ‘Howard Schultz, as an independent, on a platform of deficit reduction, for president’ is the answer to any question that anybody has ever asked about anything,”


He's also against healthcare reform...

This might be one of those Neoliberals I've heard about.



Apparently not, because as we've all been told in the most shrill tones imaginable, any and all Democrats are all neoliberals, merely by virtue of their membership in the party, thus it is wrong and immoral to vote for any Democrat whatsoever.

[/sarcasm] rolleyes

Hmmmm....
Feels like your referring to my posting Jeff. If so, your spinning my criticism of the Democratic Party. We've had neoliberal democratic presidents since Clinton. You may have trudged into a booth and thrown the lever for another back in 2016. To say that theres not a predominantly neoliberal concensus in the Democratic Party is like republicans saying there the Party of Lincoln.
It's really not a subtle concept to grasp. Theirs a range of democrats but the majority and the party organization is predominately neoliberal.
Sorry if that sounds shrill to your ears. Defending my posting, not trying to change your
I'll shut up now.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/01/19 02:22 PM
I almost never cite to National Review, but here's a piece that bears reading: The Sham of American ‘Centrism’. It points out that the "centrism" espoused by Schultz and other "Independents" is really a very minority view. It also explains how Trump got to the White House, and where Dems won in 2018. It could be the formula for 2020.

BTW, Corey Booker announced.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/02/19 04:49 AM
OMG, how can it be silly season already? Chris Christie is being attacked for complimenting Corey Booker (genuinely) and Elizabeth Warren for apologizing for taking a DNA test.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/02/19 03:28 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
I almost never cite to National Review, but here's a piece that bears reading: The Sham of American ‘Centrism’. It points out that the "centrism" espoused by Schultz and other "Independents" is really a very minority view. It also explains how Trump got to the White House, and where Dems won in 2018. It could be the formula for 2020.

BTW, Corey Booker announced.
Schultz is a real disappointment. Makes me think that the Starbucks Board of Directors came-up with all of Starbuck's great social ideas and that Howard was dragged along kicking and screaming to support those social initiatives.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/02/19 04:46 PM
Quote
Makes me think that the Starbucks Board of Directors came-up with all of Starbuck's great social ideas

Advertising and PR firms came up with any great social ideas that may have been implemented by Starbucks. Shultz and the board of directors chose only those which would increase the bottom line the most for the minimum investment.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/02/19 04:50 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Makes me think that the Starbucks Board of Directors came-up with all of Starbuck's great social ideas

Advertising and PR firms came up with any great social ideas that may have been implemented by Starbucks. Shultz and the board of directors chose only those which would increase the bottom line the most for the minimum investment.
We don't know how Schultz voted or even if his vote was weighted. From what I've heard from Howard Schultz this week, doesn't square with the policies of Starbucks. Hmm
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/02/19 05:10 PM
Shultz apparently has been a Democrat in the past. But the leftward surge within the Democratic Party, especially the threat to raise taxes on the very wealthy, has forced him to move right. More or less into the realms of lassaize faire or "neoliberal" economics. Not that these aren't already rampant in both parties but they are more often publicly advocated by Republicans.

Shultz imagines he could draw voters from both parties for the win.

I imagine he would be ignored by both parties for an embarrasing and expensive trouncing.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/02/19 06:22 PM
If Schultz even enters the race (he hasn't officially done so, yet), I think he'll fizzle quickly, as he finds his views are not widely held. The "center" is not occupied by billionaires.

We are all shaped by our roots, and he had humble roots. I think his social views are genuine. On the other hand, he has been infected by millionaire-itis. He has said that he's "self-made" - a phrase I abhor - which is patently untrue. He made some good decisions, had some valuable insights, and got lucky in life - but he didn't get there by himself. He had his parent's support. He's White. He lived in "the projects" - government subsidized housing; he got a scholarship (i.e., other people's money) to get into school; he got help getting his first job; he got SENT to Italy by his employer, where he got his insights; he gained experience through his employer in the business; he got to keep most of his profits because of tax codes that are generous to investors. He's been helped throughout his career, but he's blind to that.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/05/19 12:54 AM
I'm thinking Beto O'Rourke has let his window of opportuity slip by.

Unless he's waiting for the rest of the field to self destruct before jumping in...
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
If Schultz even enters the race (he hasn't officially done so, yet), I think he'll fizzle quickly, as he finds his views are not widely held. The "center" is not occupied by billionaires.

Schultz is already appearing to be something of a horse's ass.
already quoted as blurting out "I don't want to talk in hypotheticals...etc."

Pfffttt, the whole idea of campaigning is to flesh out hypotheticals and create ideas.

I want folks to try a thought experiment involving Nelson Rockefeller.
Just for the hell of it, put aside his draconian crime and drug policies and look at the rest of his record.
I wager that if Nelson Rockefeller were alive today and registered as a Democrat, he could point to his past work and get a lot of respect, maybe even a win albeit he would have to make inroads with the more progressive camp. He would have to make a reckoning with his Bidenesque stop and frisk and his monstrous drug laws.
But look at the rest of his past record fer chrissakes.
Rockefeller is more liberal than Joe Biden, and certainly more liberal than Schultz and Bloomberg.

For all his proclivities and excesses, Rockefeller was actually a pretty compassionate fellow with a mind for social justice. A Republican...pretty incredible.

And when a guy like Nelson Rockefeller comes off as more liberal than Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg and Mister Starbucks, that speaks VOLUMES.
By the way, most of Nelson's policies worked, too.

That speaks volumes as to how far off to the Right Democratic pols are today. The funny thing is, if you look at the rest of Rockefeller's policies, even AOC could get him to budge a little.
And Lincoln (R) even freed the slaves! Republicans have not always been this crazy.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 02:52 PM
Bernies in....
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Bernies in....

As an "independent" or as an actual member of the Democratic Party?
Not anxious for a repeat of 2016.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 05:04 PM
Bernie: to old and to far left. The Democratic voter wants and needs a candidate that looks, talks and thinks like they do; so no over 60 candidates.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 05:43 PM
Bernie had the highest approval ratings among the millenials.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 05:44 PM
I saw much good coming out of the 2016 election.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 06:26 PM
interpret for me ... was it the policies which inspired millennials or is it the cult of personality and modern Americans suffer from a disease.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 07:46 PM
I don't claim to speak for younger generations. Just looking at the polls.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 08:37 PM
If Bernie runs and Beto doesn't, I'm all in with Bernie.
Bernie "had" the best numbers with millenials in 2016 and given the lackluster quality of the Democratic field I think he will shoot to the top.
I don't think he's too old. Bernie's still got the fire in his belly and he's not liable to retire any time soon anyway.

Beto could take those millenials away from him though. Along with people of color and a few more demographic slices of the pie.

I'm not saying Beto would be a better president. Just that he will win in a long, hard fought primary race.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 08:47 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
interpret for me ... was it the policies which inspired millennials or is it the cult of personality and modern Americans suffer from a disease.

It's a bit of a chicken/egg question. But I'm going with the policies.
They stood out from the pack and resonated with younger voters because younger voters(Millienals and now the first waves of ZGen) tend towards socialism. Unlike older folks they are seeing the ravages of runaway capitalism.


Then he went viral and became a Super Hero.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 09:14 PM
Thanks

Rock stars and politics. Mr Trump doesn't have any appeal for me ... his speeches are typically dumb, based in ignorance and fear but clearly he has great appeal among his supporters ... I call it tarnished charisma or more aptly dumbed down charisma i.e only the ignorant are captivated.

I think in addition to policies, Sen Sanders did have charisma. I don't think people go crazy over policies but they do become emotionally invested when touched.

Whomever the Democrats run better have rock star status with an ability to pre-emptively defuse the 6th grade insults with that certain je ne sais quoi. Mr Trump is not creative enough to find a proper retort and devolves into childish nonsense.

What did Sen Sanders say ... someone who will definitely defeat Mr Trump
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 09:50 PM
Beto's got the rock star thing tied up if he runs. Good people flock to him the way assh*les flock to Donald Trump. Immigration reform is gonna be big in 2020 after the Children In Cages™ policy popular with Republicans. Beto's strongest point is immigration.
Bernie is all about economic reform.

Economic reform is probably more important.

But the children.....

The rest of the field has the charisma of a warm bucket of spit.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/19/19 10:25 PM
For me, 2 years is a bit long to decide who I will vote for. Everybody hasn't even declared yet! Then there are the 'debates'. I do like it when there are many running and they all get exposure, kinda helps in the decision. As far as Bernie goes - HE IS TOO OLD TO RUN! He is, right now, 77 years old! He will be 79 when he runs and soon to be 80! Life expectancy is approximately 78 years old. So, folks are going to vote for somebody who the odds are against even surviving the 4 years! (I know, this one is a moveable target). Anyway, I have previously expressed my thoughts on a government run by the elderly and I stand by it. I don't think voting for somebody who is 80 years old is a good thing. I am speaking of my own capacities and they are at the top of my age group and that means not a whole lot (I turn 84 next month). My memory is crap, my physical body is not what it was even 5 years ago, etc. Being president is not an easy thing and, I fear, it would wreck somebody who started at 80 years old. So, if you are voting for Bernie I would pay attention to who the vice president was.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 04:20 AM

Bernie threw his hat into the ring. Meh. I'm not excited about Bernie this time.

I'd like to see a Biden/Harris ticket - where Biden only stays for 4 years. smile
Even relatively young men who served aged a lot in 8 years. It's a demanding job, if you don't spend all day watching TV and tweeting.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 04:26 PM
I know! Look at Pence, He's aged a decade in two years! I HAVE noticed how bad Trump is looking just Playing at President. Of course, facing the rest of your life in prison or being "retired" by the Russian mob has to take a toll. Same with Manafort. I wonder how Stone will fare in lockup.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 04:34 PM
Well, Sanders has just blown away the rest of the declared democratic candidates in fundraising so I expect the FUD machine to start amping up. If there's one thing the corporate democrats understand is the power of money and Sanders has been raising the wrong kind.
His age will be used against him and is not ideal but I say let em at it. He's to old to be thinking of a soft lucrative lobby job and won't give a fart about how it plays in the 'Bill Gates Daily' or the 'Bezo's Times'.
The rest of em will have to defend their taking the money while serving the public interest which really means they just wind up taking the money and redefine what the public interest was meant to mean.
Neoliberals in a nutshell, basically.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 05:06 PM
There was a lot of talk in 2016 about how the right wing smear machine left Bernie alone because he never stood a chance of winning...

Right now I see him as the obvious frontrunner with an excellent chance of winning.

The anti socialist propaganda is already ramping up, in large part because AOC is making a big splash in Washington but AOC wouldn't be where she is today without Bernie.

Democrats who try to swim upstream against the populist current are going to find themselves swept away.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 05:55 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Bernie threw his hat into the ring. Meh. I'm not excited about Bernie this time.

I'd like to see a Biden/Harris ticket - where Biden only stays for 4 years. smile

Harris is one of those candidates who will be swept away. She seems to be running as "not a democratic socialist". But she wants to accomplish the same things.
Biden really is too old. He hasn't kept up and there's no fire in his belly. The only reason he might run is because his dying son asked him to. We all remember Uncle Joe fondly but electing him because we liked Obama isn't the direction the country needs to go and isn't a path I think voters will choose.

So you and I have switched roles this time, Rick. You're going mainstream and I'm going socialist.(or Beto if he runs)

Bernie will be a one term president, of that I think we can be sure. If he succeeds he will pave the way for a new era in American politics and a New Deal of some sort for the working class. His VP will likely be elected in his stead in 2024, much as you imagine with Harris and Biden.

But with Harris and Biden very little will be accomplished as the corporate wing of the party will remain in control.

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 08:02 PM
I will say this about the current Democratic field: all of them are better than Trump, and most of them are likely to be really good (and progressive) leaders. Yes, Gillibrand and Klobuchar are more centrist, but other than to the chunkstyle voters, would be considered progressive in most circles. Gabbard I am reserving judgment on - because of her anti-gay associations. Biden has skeletons, let us not forget (although I do love Joe).

My hope is that the field remains positive in their competition (and there are others yet to join). I happen to think Cory Booker has the strongest credentials (as a lawyer and having been both a Mayor and Senator).
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 08:20 PM
Kamala's getting Clinton staff and donors. Ugh!

Biden is a litmus test for weather you've paid any attention at all over the last 30 years...

Warren was a Republican too recently and says a lot about how far to the right the Democratic party has drifted that there's so many former republican rats on board now... Go back and fix your old party and let the left course correct the ship willya!

Beto is an empty vessel that were supposed to project our hopes and dreams onto while he cashes big donor checks and stays aspirational while noncommittal.
Klobacher's politics grew in bad soil of centrisim.

Gillibrand will be whatever she thinks you want her to be for the win that she's risked not knowing what to stand for anymore.

Booker took to much corporate cash. People remember.

Bernies old but old school. He knows what side he's on.

Originally Posted by Greger
If Bernie runs and Beto doesn't, I'm all in with Bernie.

Except we cannot AFFORD to watch the DNC do the same thing to him again.
Lucy wants to hold the football and she promised Charlie Brown she wouldn't yank it away at the last millisecond.
Have we learned ANYTHING yet?
I don't think Bernie learned from the last time.

Come on, don't ignore that, you can't.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/20/19 11:49 PM
I'm not ignoring anything. I'm gazing into my cracked crystal ball and telling you what I see. I could pull out the dogeared old Tarot cards with the missing Fool and Two of Swords(replaced with images and pips crudely drawn on a scrap of grocery bag and an unpaid electric bill) But the results would be the same.

A Trump re-election is obscured by the crack and veers into the area where I can only see rats and cockroaches.

It's Bernie all the way unless Beto runs then it's a nasty fight that Beto wins but the left gets all huffy and writes in Ralph Nader resulting in Trump's re-election. Then they spend years telling us it wasn't their fault and the lesser of two evils and whatnot.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/19 03:37 AM
You really need to stop punching left with imaginary scenarios of why weak tea neoliberal candidates lose. It's been repeatedly pointed out that there were more defections of Hillary supporters to the Romney camp than there were left wing Sanders supporters defecting to the Trump camp after their respective primaries. It's old scapegoating and all to familiar 'repress the left' phoney solutions to solve a self inflicted political problem.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/19 06:59 AM
It was more geographic fluke than weak tea neoliberalism that spoiled the 2016 election. The fact remains that Clinton won by nearly 3 million votes.

And this time around the way I see it a weak tea neoliberal is gonna kick Bernie's butt if he runs.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/19 03:09 PM
Whatever gives you comfort from that historic low voter party turnout against an historically negatively viewed opposition candidate.

Top three excuses for neoliberal loss:
Russia
Bernie voters
Comey

But hey, she won the popular low voter turnout vote!

Rinse and repeat while the needles drift into the red and neoliberals continually fine tune market messaging solutions to public problems.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/19 03:15 PM
As an aside, I see nothing but positives if Beto runs. Not for the same reasons as you might Gregor but there will be a silver lining in his candidacy.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/19 06:15 PM
Don't get me wrong from my musings on the upcoming election, I don't know whether Beto would be anything but an incompetent tool of the corporate wing of the party. Blank slate, remember? Tabula rasa.
He might also become a competent tool of the social democrats.
But with that in mind
I don't think he's gonna run.
Y'know why?
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/19 07:50 PM
Be still my beating heart!

Biden! Beto! 2020!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/22/19 12:39 PM
Sanders got over 600k volunteers already. He's off to a strong start.
There's reports out there that say Clinton's met with Biden. Mustn't count out the self regard of these increasingly irrelevant elder politicians to get in the race.
I'm very much hoping they will.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/22/19 03:00 PM
Didn't JFK have young children when he ran?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/23/19 01:35 AM
Quote
Didn't JFK have young children when he ran?

How'd that turn out for the kids...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/23/19 02:10 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Sanders got over 600k volunteers already. He's off to a strong start.

600k volunteers? or 6k?

I'm still thinking Bernie's gonna steamroller the rest of the field.

I'm seeing a few hit pieces in the press aimed at him. I read a couple and they sound like they were translated from the Russian they were written in.

Y'know...if I was into revenge politics I might be kind of excited if we elected a card carrying socialist in answer to the Trump fiasco.

Republican heads would be exploding like pumpkins on the Fourth of Halloween.
Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/23/19 02:39 AM
Now that was an inspired post Greger.

Bernies plan sounds wonderful but who is going to pay for it? Will taxpayers agree to have their taxes raised hugely--to borrow a word? Or will there simply be more US debt issued that someone will willingly snap up?

And don’t tell me about the military budget being eviscerated. That simply will not happen. From what I have read of your posts over the years Greger we both seem to agree about the concept of what is politically possible, and what is simply not.

Bring it on Chunky! Am I being too weak?
Originally Posted by Ken Condon
Now that was an inspired post Greger.

Bernies plan sounds wonderful but who is going to pay for it? Will taxpayers agree to have their taxes raised hugely--to borrow a word? Or will there simply be more US debt issued that someone will willingly snap up?

And don’t tell me about the military budget being eviscerated. That simply will not happen. From what I have read of your posts over the years Greger we both seem to agree about the concept of what is politically possible, and what is simply not.

Bring it on Chunky! Am I being too weak?

It's not even that. I'd love to see Bernie get elected but it is a mathematical impossibility because, just like in 2016, Bernie Sanders is going to run the Indy 500 WITH THE GODDAMN PARKING BRAKE ON...

AGAIN!!!

And guess what the Democratic Party will do? (and they will do it legally this time)
They'll dry up any and all money for him, because he is not a Democrat.
And they'll shut him out of debates, because he is not a Democrat.
And so on and so on and so on and so on.
Because he is not a Democrat.

And yet somehow, in ways that NOBODY has managed to explain, either last time or this time, or the next time, somehow...Bernie is supposed to magically be able to overcome this handicap AND campaign AND get the same media exposure AND get party support AND up and downstream funding, and get a fair shot on the ballot in all fifty states.

Legal? Did I say legal? I meant "as legal as it's ever going to be"...all up in here.

And in this magical Bernie world, Lucy also doesn't yank the football away at the last second.
And we all get whirled peas, too.

It's like that scene in "Downfall" where the Fuhrer is moving army divisions around on the map but those army divisions don't exist anymore. Bernie is making another fundamental lapse in judgment.

Are we really going to do a repeat of 2016?
Sell me on why we're not. Sell me on why he can win as an auslander, as an independent outside of the two major parties.
Sell me on this magical rainbow farting unicorn idea, please.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/23/19 04:05 AM
Ken, there's plenty of money out there and plenty of places gubmint can skim it off the top.

I'm fond of Transaction taxes. A wee tax on every digital transaction that takes place anywhere for any reason.

Social Security is an easy fix, raise the cap...and not just a little bit.

Healthcare might be a straight deduction from your paycheck. The bigger the paycheck, the bigger the deduction.

One program at a time...one tax at a time...we just need to get started cause the grits done hit the pan and there's an awful mess that needs to be cleaned up.
hitsfan


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/23/19 04:36 AM
Quote
Are we really going to do a repeat of 2016?

Most likely yes. Either Biden or Beto(or Biden and Beto) vs Bernie.

If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination(and he certainly could) Howard Shultz will run against him, if they nominate a centrist he won't run.

It's complicated.

And there's something to be said for having a milquetoast liberal president signing bills coming up from an increasingly activist legislature.

We should know in a week or so what Beto plans to do...

Biden leading in all the polls...yeah we're gonna do it again. Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/19 07:12 PM
1 million have volunteered to the Sanders campaign since his announcement.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/19 08:04 PM
Yep, just what we need! An 80 year old president!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/19 09:55 PM
Between another corporate serving neoliberal democrat or grandpa......
Go grandpa!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/19 01:30 AM
Between Grandpa Biden and Grandpa Bernie I'd prefer Bernie.

If Bernie gets the nomination will the centrists sit home?
Or flock to Howard Shultz because the S word...?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/19 04:14 AM
Sanders raises 10 million in first week. 40% from new donors.
The knives will be out for him from here till November.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/19 06:53 PM
My wife actually watched Bernie on CNN yesterday. She said somebody asked him why he has not actually joined the Democratic part. His response, she said, was somewhat confused but boiled down to the fact that he ran and won as an independent in his state so he couldn't possible become a Democrat. She went on to say that he claimed he was a Democrat in all but name.

So, if he actually won he would also be an almost Democrat and 80 year old who seems a bit confused as to exactly who, or what, he is. Seems a bit sketchy to me. At least, if Biden ran and won he wouldn't be confused about who and what he is (I like biden a LOT more - except for the 80 year old thing) In either case who is vice president becomes a LOT more important as well.

As far as what the Dems will do. Basically, not a damn thing. They got so beat up last time for not 'fully' supporting the guy who wasn't a Democrat, without, incidentally, telling anybody, that I fear they just won't have the gumption which somehow doesn't really surprise me.

Of course, in the fullness of time, all will become apparent. <G>
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/19 10:57 PM
Sanders supporters don't really care so much about party brand loyaly. They are fired up about his policy positions. After the last 30 years, who wouldn't be? That's why practically every other Democratic candidate has adopted at least some of his policy as their own positions. Funny how that worked. Not bad for an old geezer.... His age isn't ideal but he seems spry enough for 1 million volunteers. Maybe once they hear he's not a member of club DEM they'll mutiny?
If all you got on the guy is 'he's not a true democrat' I think that's going to fall on a lot of deaf ears. May even help with independents.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/19 12:17 AM
Y'know...I just happen to be a card carrying Independent and you're right about that.
I love Uncle Joe as much as anybody but he never once showed me that he had what it took to be president.
The Democratic sea of candidates is wide but it's shallow.
All of the candidates support some of Bernie's policies.
One of them supports them all.
One of the big hurdles candidates face is name recognition. Everybody knew Trumps name. He had been in their living rooms countless times firing poor hapless individuals who failed to be the ideal lickspittle. Everybody knows Bernie.

jgw, I think there is little doubt that, as a democrat, you are a bit on the conservative side. So if Biden and Bernie are the top contenders and Bernie ultimately wins...

Do you vote blue no matter who? And pull the lever for Bernie?

Or do you vote for Le Barristo Grande Howard Shultz? The centrist billionaire who will only run if the socialist Bernie Sanders wins the nomination.

These are truly exciting times we live in!

Can Democrats find and entirely new way to shoot themselves in the feet? Or will they stick to the tried and true? Stay tuned folks and you'll find out!
Hey guys, I did not write the rules for how POTUS elections work.
Or, to put it another way, I did not design the track at Indianapolis.
All I know is, if you bring an NHRA top fuel dragster to the Indy 500, it will be done after 1320 feet and the race is 500 miles long.

80 is certainly getting up there. Maybe he'll stroke out and clear the field. Maybe he'll win and be a great President for 8 years. My 91 year old neighbor was still sharp as a tack and would climb up on his roof to oil the muffin fans. Lifespan and activity level at age 80 are very widely variable.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/19 02:19 AM
Four years.
Then Republicans will take it back and begin undoing everything he did...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/19 02:25 AM
What if a car comes on the track and laps the pack at least 4x in the early heat?
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/19 07:11 PM
Yep, you are, again, right! I too know a few that are alert. However, when you are around 80 your physical self starts to fail as well as the mental.

I suspect my problem with an 80 year old president is that 80 years old, in that office, doesn't just call for mental but physical wellness too. There are stats on all of this stuff and when you hit 80, unless you are an exception, you are also on the downward path. Or, I guess, one could take the Jackass path and work less than 3 hours a day/

My hope is that the Dems can get themselves a real winner that is less than 80 and less than 75 would even be better! (I am not suggesting any teenagers! <g>
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/19 01:14 AM
I've never been much of a Bernie fan. Love his policies...but have doubts about his executive abilities. He remains my pick to win for now because the rest of the field is boring beyond words. How he would actually perform as president worries me a bit.

I like Hillary Clinton. I wish it was possible for her to run again and beat Trump. But that ship has sailed and there aint nobody standing on shore who I consider to be qualified for the job and able to defeat Trump.

In fact, I suspect the 2016 election spelled the end of civilization as we know it, there may be a slight chance of redemption with a democratic sweep in 2020 but I'm not counting on it.

Whoever creates the most excitement will get the nomination. Bernie stirs things up wherever he goes.

I'm gonna ignore Bernie's age for now and treat him like a regular human being. Albeit one whom I'd rather was younger...

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/01/19 01:55 PM
Jay Inslee - I think I like him.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/02/19 02:46 AM
I think I like the red meat he just threw into the Democratic brawl.

Climate change...plain and simple.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/19 01:50 AM
So Bernie had a rally in Brooklyn.
13,000 attended...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/19 12:04 PM
Over 12000 Chicago.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/19 01:34 PM
Hickenlooper and Inslee have jumped in. We may get to three debate nights.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/19 09:04 PM
Liz Warren wants to break up big tech. Maybe a good idea but unless all the Republicans emigrate to Israel or Russia or somesuch it aint never gonna fly. We can't even negotiate with big pharma, slobber all over ourselves giving money and cutting regulations for big oil, can't control big banks, bow down and give big ag everything it wants.

Big Government seems almost powerless to deal with big corporations...
Wonder why that is...?
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/19 11:02 PM
I consider this kind of stuff an effort to not regulate. Most of our problems stem from the fact that gov no longer seems to have the capacity to regulate. Dealing with Amazon, Google and Facebook with breaking them up really means 1)gov won't regulate them, 2)gov can't regulate them, or 3)hurt them enough and maybe they will clean themselves up thereby relieving gov of that duty.

Take Amazon. This one really amazes me. Say you want to sell stuff on Amazon so you setup an account to do just that. You get really successful and suddenly Amazon is selling everything that you are selling at a better price! It is my understanding that this is, exactly, what Amazon does. Warren says she wants to do this for them little people. Baloney. What needs to be done is to stop Amazon from ripping off their sellers! (seems too simple to me)

Then there is Facebook. If you breakup Facebook it will just go away. It needs what it has to survive.

I am not really sure how one would breakup Google. It does do different things but I suspect they are all, in the end, related and interdependent. (probably wrong about this one too)

What I am saying is that if many folks, or gov, feel that any company is doing bad things then regulate them in an effort to stop the offensive stuff. If that doesn't work then either break them up or shut them down but try the regulations first. The trick, I suspect is to legislate this stuff instead of doing it all by presidential fiat.

Presidential fiat came into its own during the Obama time. The reason is that he couldn't get any legislation passed due to Republican intransigence (which they announced, on TV, when he got elected). Now the jackass administration sees this a the way to go - even if it does seem to be kinda neat to get around congress.

On that "presidential fiat" thingie. Obama was just selective about priorities. For example, Congress passed laws saying deport all these people, but then only gave him enough money to deport 1/10th of them. Obama chose to concentrate on the criminals and leave the Dreamers alone. Makes perfect sense. It's up to the President to execute the laws. He was just trying to do the best he could.

Trump wants to take money the Congress has already allocated for other stuff for his wall, when the Congress said "no wall money". That's WAY WAY more of a power grab.

Also, re Amazon: Supermarkets have been offering their own inexpensive store brands for years, or maybe decades. That's what Amazon is doing. Nobody makes people buy the Amazon brand. Wanting to break up the Amazon/Whole Foods acquisition has nothing to do with anti-trust. It's just attacking a company because it's successful. Why not attack WalMart? Why not Big Pharma?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/10/19 03:34 PM
And I say simply tax the living f*ck out of them. Not the rich guys personal income so much as the corporations that make them rich. And of course regulate the f*ck out of them so they aren't harming the environment, their employees, and people who have to live near industrial polluters.

But Republicans are against taxes and regulations...

Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/11/19 04:39 AM
Republicans are great for driving forward through their rear view mirror.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/19 01:43 PM
Beto's in!
I wonder how long he can be the empty vessel for voters to fill with their hopes and dreams?
I'm predicting another Obama style run from his camp. We'll see.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/19 06:32 PM
The word for the next two years is


CHARISMA
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/19 07:44 PM
Better an empty vessel than one full of bullsh*t.

Immigration seems not to be on your radar much but it's a huge huge issue. Beto wants to tear down the existing walls.
He could turn Texas blue in 2020! He's a bit of a folk hero there now and Texans don't love Trump much. He only lost to Cruz by 2.65 points.

The guy is a super-salesman with charisma out the ying yang!

We'll find out over the next few months but I think he's gonna catch fire and win like Sectretariat at Belmont.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/19 12:17 AM
Quote
Texans don't love Trump much
I live in Texas in the heart of Trump country.

I don't know very many anti-Trumpites but do know oodles of MAGA hat wearing Trump supporters. All are ignorant. All are bigots. All love Trump.

I haven't read any after election reports but suspect when I do, they will say Democrats turned out more voters to make it close. I am not sure what that means.

Quote
Beto wants to tear down the existing walls.
More precisely in El Paso. His reasoning is the current wall defeats the strategy of making the two communities one because of the economic symbiosis between them. or Mr Trump is for a wall ... simply a metaphor for his bigotry ... and Beto is against a wall ... his metaphor for building communities with respect

What I do know is if the candidate is lackluster in presentation there will be a lackluster voter turnout. It's not enough to be against Mr Trump, although that should be enough, a solid charismatic candidate will seal the deal. Mr Trump said Beto's hands blah blah ... I love debating 13 year old bullys ... typically they are stupid and never realize it ... entangle him in policy, people will see Mr Trump is unqualified, but do it with fire
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/19 01:14 AM
I live in Florida in the heart of Trump country. Sucks don't it? But there are other parts of Texas(and Florida) which are not so much in favor of Trump.

Trump won by 9% in Texas against Clinton.
Beto lost to Cruz by less than 3%. By 2020 I expect Trump to be further damaged than he is now. How will a politically damaged Trump fair against a hometown boy? We'll have to wait and see on that but I'm betting Trump won't do nearly so well next time around.
In Texas or anywhere else.
Beto might not actually flip Texas but it could be pretty close.

More than anything though, he brings some excitement into the race.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/19 11:29 AM
Ever since Reagan I’ve had a large piece of mind that understands that an effective leader is, first and foremost, a top salesperson. Running for president is more like a beauty contest or a prize fight than it is a reasoned assessment of competence to manage the government.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/19 08:24 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Ever since Reagan I’ve had a large piece of mind that understands that an effective leader is, first and foremost, a top salesperson. Running for president is more like a beauty contest or a prize fight than it is a reasoned assessment of competence to manage the government.

That's why I love politics so much. A horse race, a beauty contest, a prize fight, wrestling pigs in the mud! All rolled into one giant extravaganza! Peanuts! Peanuts! Gitcha peanuts!

Trump sees the truth of it. It's all entertainment and your ratings with your viewing audience are all that counts. What we are watching now is a twisted nightmarish Hunger Games style reality show.
Real people are dying and the fans are cheering it on!

And all we really want is someone who can competently manage government and put forth a reasonable agenda that benefits the whole country and by extension the world and all of mankind...

Any one of the Democratic candidates would do a fine job as president.
It's gonna be tough putting government back together back together because Trump has simply not bothered to fill empty positions, entire departments go without leadership or workforce. Internal government infrastructure is collapsing brick by brick because Trump just can't be bothered. He's busy looking at porn on his goddam phone and has no time for it.
Normally a president would steer the ship of state to the right or left, Trump sawed off the rudder and went to bugger the cabin boy.

Yeah...any Democrat. But watching the race will be fun. I've picked my horse on beauty and performance in a previous race, but I've still got a small bet on Bernie.
Posted By: matthew Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/19 06:50 PM
.
Politics are the entertainment division of the Military-Industrial Complex.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/19 10:45 PM
Originally Posted by matthew
.
Politics are the entertainment division of the Military-Industrial Complex.

And just as dangerous as their fireworks division.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/19 12:35 PM
Here I thought the military was simply acting as corporate security services and politics the marketing dept. Hmmm...
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/19 09:24 PM
What happens if the Dems stop preaching to the choir and start preaching to the other side (going on Fox when they can, etc), mention little things like Trump destroying everybody's health insurance, shutting down medicaid and medicare, threatening war with anybody he doesn't like (long list there), privatizing public education, privatizing the VA, etc?

This is probably a rhetorical question as its unlikely to happen real soon...........
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/25/19 03:01 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
What happens if the Dems stop preaching to the choir and start preaching to the other side (going on Fox when they can, etc), mention little things like Trump destroying everybody's health insurance, shutting down medicaid and medicare, threatening war with anybody he doesn't like (long list there), privatizing public education, privatizing the VA, etc?

This is probably a rhetorical question as its unlikely to happen real soon...........

Still crickets from you JGW?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/25/19 03:03 PM
Welp, it's official. Lunchbox Joe is tan, rested and ready to take on the mythical school yard bully and restore the liberal order so many pine and yearn for.
The best quote I've heard is 'watch his campaign melt like a sandcastle in a p!ss storm..'
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/25/19 08:18 PM
Quote
'watch his campaign melt like a sandcastle in a p!ss storm..

Yeah, he's in for some disappointment I think. Getting into the race will make his future speaking career a little more lucrative though. And maybe a book deal...
Originally Posted by Greger
Any one of the Democratic candidates would do a fine job as president.
It's gonna be tough putting government back together back together because Trump has simply not bothered to fill empty positions, entire departments go without leadership or workforce. Internal government infrastructure is collapsing brick by brick because Trump just can't be bothered. He's busy looking at porn on his goddam phone and has no time for it.
Normally a president would steer the ship of state to the right or left, Trump sawed off the rudder and went to bugger the cabin boy.

ThumbsUp Bow (APPLAUSE)

And that cabin boy is Stephen Miller! eek2
Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/19 12:48 AM
I thought that was what Trump was “supposed" to do. Break the gubbmint so to speak.

Perhaps the unfilled positions were by design and not just his incompetence.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/19 11:35 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Any one of the Democratic candidates would do a fine job as president.
I saw a recent poll where ANY of the 2020 Dem Candidates would be Trump smile

(except Hillary Clinton who's not running. Hmm )
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/19 10:18 PM
I can only admire the belief that the Dems can take out Jackass in 2020. If he can hold onto this economy the Dems better look out. We are talking JOBS! Its really not important whether the Dems will wreck the economy - its not theirs anyway. Anything they say won't count. Historically this is what happens when 1 party has a great economy and Trump has one, right now.

I think he will crash it sometime next year. The debt alone will help in that one. We must sell our bonds and with the debt starting to get as big as our entire gross national product (gnp) we will have to increase the interest to keep up sales. That interest alone will seriously inflict damage on most Dem promises (any everybody else too).

We will, of course, know all in the fullness of time (love that phrase)
I don't know about a great economy for Trump's base: Coal miners are still SOL, unless they did what Hillary suggested and trained for something else. Manufacturing workers are in bad shape and the steel and aluminum tariffs are just going to make it worse. Farmers have gone bankrupt again because of the tariffs.

I think the "good economy" is limited to business owners and rich people. Employees who still have a job have seen no tax break. Retirees saw a Social Security increase but a Medicare increase that gobbled it up.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/19 11:16 PM
Quote
I think he will crash it sometime next year.

Trump isn't keeping the economy rolling. The economy is keeping him rolling. It won't take much to upset the applecart. I'd rather see a scary hiccup in the economy than an actual tsunamai of sadness.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I think he will crash it sometime next year.

Trump isn't keeping the economy rolling. The economy is keeping him rolling. It won't take much to upset the applecart. I'd rather see a scary hiccup in the economy than an actual tsunamai of sadness.

This weekend Biden stumped about the fallacy of our so called great economy. If you're in the upper middle class or the one percent, yeah sure, it's great. Everyone else, not so much.

"The stock market is roaring, but you don't feel it.
You got a two trillion dollar tax cut, did you feel it?"

7:44 mark in the video clip

Even libertarian think tanks are noticing the thin veneer that allows Trump to get away with crowing about a roaring economy. They are noticing how paper thin it is and how dangerous it is to crow too much.

Former American Enterprise Institute president Arthur Brooks sounds like a changed man.
Is it possible for libertarianism to show a center left form of compassion?
Arthur Brooks seems to think so.



Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/30/19 08:46 PM
I found it interesting that this administration has decided to punish EVERYBODY, including close allies like Japan, China, UK, etc if they dare trade with Iran. This is one that may just push our economy overboard. What is being suggested is that we are going to refuse to trade with virtually ALL that we currently trade with. Pretty interesting - we have decided to tell everybody that they no longer have a choice as to who we will allow them to trade with. I tend to doubt that this is going to be received with enthusiasm.


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/03/19 02:55 AM
Quote
This is one that may just push our economy overboard.

One of many, my friend. That "the economy" has withstood Trumps hamfisted management of US trade is a miracle unto itself and proof of the resiliency of the global marketplace.

But along and along we gonna load one too many straws on the camels back. And s***'s gonna hit the fan like you never seen.

hitsfan
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/03/19 04:54 PM
I am pretty sure the US has been in a long simmering low key war against Iran for years.

I believe one of reason for invading Iraq was to plant US forces next to Iran. Ever since we have tried sanctions as a way to impose our will upon the Ayatollah.

I still do not know why conservatives hate the Iranians for taking back their country, but apparently they do.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/03/19 08:10 PM
History in a nutshell.......

Its actually very strange. President Carter demanded that the Shah (the guy we put in charge of a Democratically elected government we decided to get rid of) empty his prisons of political prisoners. The Shah then went right ahead and did that. Shortly after the Shah got himself deposed. Then an ex American Attorney General got an army plane to transfer the Ayatollah from Paris to Iran. Not too long after that the released political prisoners, and a bunch of pissed off Iranians charged our Embassy, captured everybody there and kept them hostage. We have been angry with them every since as they might have been angry that we overturned their Democratic government and imposed the Shah on them (not a real nice guy but excelled in having some of the very best torturers in the world) but they failed to thank us for getting their political prisoners freed or taking the Ayatollah, who was not exactly our fan, back home.

Just thought I would throw this one in. I also suspect, since my memory isn't as great as it should be there may be errors in the above - apologies..............
You forgot the cake Ollie North took them along with the promises if they would just hold those hostages until after Reagan beat Carter. Then the Reagan administration was all buddy buddy with them. So this meeting with adversaries to make some promises if they help elect your guy, is nothing new.

All this hostility toward Iran could just be another Trump ploy, like North Korea (fire and fury) so he can later deescalate and claim statesmanship.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/15/19 05:55 PM
I continue to wonder about the greatest deal maker the world has ever seen. As far as I can tell he has yet to make a single deal. I know, he has claimed the Nafta fix which was actually worked out by Obama. Instead of making deals it seems as if what he is really good at is pissing off folks who used to be allies. I do know that nobody trusts, nor much likes, us anymore.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/19 01:06 PM
O.K., it comes from a lefty rag but the book review of 'A Crises Wasted' and the author, Reed Hunt, showcases what appears to be a very good critique of the democratic party and the surrounding incompetence of president Obama.

I like the fact that the guy, Reed, is a party insider with a front row seat to the fiasco and connects the dots from Obama to Trump.

“In the expression of leadership,” the author concludes, “Roosevelt’s speech resembles Trump’s inaugural address in 2017.”
Article Here

What's been obvious to those that weren't committed to her highness from the jump of her candidacy but has been missed by the party's organization and adherent's, has now been described by one of it's own. Ought to be a good read and I look forward to checking it out of the library.

It may be too little too late but you never know. So far the party has taken a more aggressive and undemocratic tone to any criticism and primary challengers with more progressive platforms are now prohibited from entering the race. It's now more or less having a progressive caucus when you can pry the democratic party from the cold frozen dead hands of neoliberals.

A real shame when compared to recent examples of solid progressive victories thru a mobilized base and a platform run on ideas instead of resumes.

Anywho, just goes to show the fallacy of 'selling out' your traditional base to 'compromise with the other side' and pick up the 'holy grail' of election victories. The middle unicorn.

After selling out your base you run out of things to sell.

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/10/19 12:55 AM
I'm still thinking a Warren/Bootyjudge ticket. Warren is starting to stand out, and on policy, no less.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/10/19 03:55 PM
Well one things fersure. The planetary climate destabilization is not worth nor will be given it's own debate with the Democratic presidential primary candidates. That has proven itself to extreme with Club DNC...

No Green New Deal FOR YOU!!!

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/10/19 10:30 PM
Quote
planetary climate destabilization

Funny that...more and more conservatives are making the switch every day. The evidence is pretty compelling and about half the people affected by fires and floods and hurricanes and droughts are Republicans.

Any Republican who still believes in facts and science is admitting the climate is changing, and making plans for it. Trump fans who are just a continuation of the Bush people who thought they could manufacture their own reality, not so much. I predict a lot of disappointed wishful thinkers.

The Pentagon seems to be making reality-based plans.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/11/19 03:37 PM
Quote
The Pentagon seems to be making reality-based plans.

War is a facts and figures business. Business is a facts and figures business too. Insurance companies can put exact price tags on the costs of global warming. Eventually the market will insist that the government take action.

Which is to say...right now Our Corporate Overlords™ are preventing much government action on climate mitigation because there are still profits to be made. When climate mitigation is required to maintain profits then climate mitigation will occur.

Politics isn't based on facts and figures. The winners of our elections aren't necessarily the ones with the most votes...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/12/19 10:36 AM
To bolster Gregor's point:
Florida's property bubble

Say......
Didn't the Democrats appoint some Tampa rep as the GND committee chair? The same rep who's biggest contributors are in the real estate sector?

Gosh, I hope the GND won't get parlayed into coastal property wealth protection. What a missed opportunity that would be...
I foresee a huge market for a service that picks your house up with a crane, and puts some pilings or concrete block walls underneath. I think that would be a real winner in Florida. It's basically the house moving business, but up instead of relocation. It's actually easier, since they don't have to move it down the highway.

Maybe this has to happen after the houses get flooded, just to get the finances right. somebody could make billions buying up flooded houses and rehabbing them. Shame though if they can't do it before the flooding.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/13/19 09:19 AM
House jacking is extremely expensive and labor intensive. Houses aren't built to be picked up and set down like egg cartons. Lots of cribbing and shoring. My guess is we will see the historical norm of abandonment and exodus with exploitation of victims up and down the line.
It's hilarious in one sense. All that money laundering in real estate investment going on in south Florida right now. All that money swindled out of foreign countries being invested in structures built on shorelines and barrier islands that have no long term prospects. It would be funny if it was only happening to these rich swindlers. As usual, it will be hardest hit among the majority of poor and working class.
There's a metaphor for capitalism in there somewhere.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/13/19 06:25 PM
You forgot the federal flood insurance scam. Our tax dollars have been going to literally rebuild waterfrontsummer cottages for the rich for years. There have been some that have actually been rebuilt every year. They were supposed to deny insurance to folks on flood plains, waterfronts likely to be hurricaned, etc. But that never happened.

Here is a link to one of many replies if you google somthing like: "federal flood insurance rebuild"
https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/11/28/510202.htm
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/14/19 12:33 PM
Heck JGW, the amount of swindles are too numerous to keep a thread coherent. But, yeah, I'm with you on regulatory capture. It's only accelerated in the last few election cycles.

Weather it's big Mo getting it's man appointed as agency head or big Mo writing the laws. It's all we hear from these days and seems to be the only one getting it's interests served.
I heard an interview of Bernie on NPR today. Seemed very reasonable. I think he would do a good job, with a little congressional cooperation.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/15/19 03:51 AM
Unlike a bunch of other wishy washy candidates Bernie is pretty clear on what he wants and how he plans to achieve it.

Bernie has a problem with women's issues. You're asking him to divide people by sex. Bernie doesn't divide people up into categories, They're all people, they all have the same rights.

Same with racial issues...Bernie doesn't think like that.

He'd be a fabulous president. But Joe Biden has been annointed by the party.
I really liked the fact that he kept on coming back to FDR and the government programs people like, which were all loudly dismissed as socialism by conservatives at the time. It's rather like Trump's populist promises, but not fake. On the other hand, he's laid down the glove and taking on Big Health Insurance and Big Pharma. They will spend billions to defeat him.

I tend to agree with Beto: Electing Joe would be a step backwards. But that may appeal to Obama voters who voted for Trump.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/15/19 07:06 PM
Bernie AND Biden are just too damned old! I remember when Reagan was no longer home and his wife seemed to be running the nation. So, if you are going to vote for either one of these elders better check the capacities of their wives just in case.
Different people age at different rates. The Bernie I heard in an interview the other day sounded perfectly rational and capable. Of course by 2028 that might not be the case.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/15/19 09:11 PM
I WANT YOUNG BLOOD TOO!

My generation has pretty much botched up everything they have touched as we entered into end stage capitalism. Joe Biden has been a part of that every step of the way.

Bernie Sanders has led the socialist opposition most of that time. And to be honest, he hasn't led it that well because socialists have lost a lot of ground since the fifties. I imagine Bernie cut his teeth on New York City beatnik coffeehouses, jazz and socialist rhetoric....Heady times those...

Where did the Bohemians go? Who has been pushing for the rights of the workers and the common man? They were still around in the sixties...the folk singers and war protestors.

What in the world has happened to us?
I think we mostly got reasonable employment and 401Ks. Of course your $100K in a 401K will last you about two years in retirement. Then it's cat food or prescriptions on your piddling social security check.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/16/19 08:22 PM
Socialists lost ground because they allowed the Right to redefine their title. Modern socialists are rarely the extreme groups that want the state to have everything because the state is the citizens.

Except, in the main, the only difference between most 'socialist' countries of northern Europe is that we continue to have For Profit Healthcare which is a terrible mistake for not only healthcare itself, but from a financial point of view. It is, in other words something that is logical as public education, police departments and fire departments, libraries, etc.

The simple fact is that there are some things, financed and supplied by the state, in the interest of the common good that belong.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/16/19 10:46 PM
Quote
socialists are rarely the extreme groups that want the state to have everything because the state is the citizens.
Socialists have never been extreme groups that want the state to have everything.

Socialists are now and have always been supporters of the working class.

The Proletariet.

It's an ongoing existential struggle that has been with us throughout our history in one form or another.It is, perhaps, what sets us apart from the other animals.

Politics is where it plays out as drama.

I see it as a strategy game.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/17/19 05:56 PM
I am curious. I can't find a single truly socialist nation. If Socialism is so great why are not a bunch of countries socialist? I am talking about nations where the airlines, railroads, computer companies, etc. are all owned by the state.

Just wondering. I googled this and the only stuff I found were articles on failed Socialist states (usually starting with the Soviet Union).
I think that's the reason everybody has moved on from that definition of Socialism. The problem with it is one of scale. Central planning only works for a small enterprise, like a Kibbutz. When the enterprise gets larger, the planning grows exponentially. Beyond a small size, the planning fails.

So what actually works is a mixed economy, where government supplies the services it can supply best, and everything else is private enterprise. That's what they have in the most "socialist" countries, and in the least "socialist" countries. It's just a matter of degree. Like we think police should be employees of the state. In Somalia, they think police should be private. You can make a huge list of things the government runs here in the US, and compare those things to other countries. So-called socialist Scandinavian countries probably overlap our items by 95%!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/17/19 10:05 PM
Because every government is part capitalist and part socialist.

They are twisted together like strands of DNA. Can't have one without the other.

Most European nations are social democracies. It's a model that's working all over the place. Workers are paid well and working conditions are good. There is paid family leave and a 30 day paid vacation. Higher education is free. Medical insurance is provided. Life is pretty good for everybody.

We can have that here. And the rich will still be rich.

It's a win win situation.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/19 12:41 AM
Originally Posted by Gregor
It's a win win situation.
And that is precisely why it won’t fly... tonbricks
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/19 01:23 AM
Originally Posted by jgw
I am curious. I can't find a single truly socialist nation. If Socialism is so great why are not a bunch of countries socialist? I am talking about nations where the airlines, railroads, computer companies, etc. are all owned by the state.

Just wondering. I googled this and the only stuff I found were articles on failed Socialist states (usually starting with the Soviet Union).

China
>China

Maybe back in 1949, but the Shanghai stock exchange is the third largest stock exchange in the world.

Quote
Deng launched several economic reforms that allowed private sectors to start and operate their own businesses once again. He also established four special economic zones along the coast of China with intentions of attracting foreign investments.

The government or the Red Army does own or hold a majority of stock in many companies, but they don't control or own everything. China is a mixed economy.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/19 11:41 AM
Yeah, China ain't how she was, PIA. But neither are we for that matter. As far as I know, the Chinese government is still committed to a socialist cause.

It's how they've organized their markets that makes them different from the western capitalist economies. How their monetary system works is another. I'm not advocating here, just mentioning that there are fundamental differences in how China has organized it's economy compared to ours. One of the reasons the president and his pay day loan style banks and hedge fund trade representatives want to change that right now.

For a more nuanced look at the Chinese economy and how it has been organized, you could do worse than listen at David Harvey, a Marxist economist. It's eye opening and he has credibility of the subject since he teaches in China for a semester or two every year.

Watch video here


I can't say that China will remain committed to a socialist cause. After all, they've had decades of students sent over here to attend american business schools.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/19 01:39 PM
Quote
He also established four special economic zones along the coast of China with intentions of attracting foreign investments.

Twisted together like strands of DNA.

Show me a purely capitalist country...?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/20/19 07:54 PM
"The reason is that nominating centrist Democrats who don't speak to class issues will result in a great swathe of voters simply not voting. Conversely, right-wing candidates who speak to class issues, but who do so by harnessing a false consciousness — i.e. blaming immigrants and minorities for capitalism's ills, rather than capitalists — will win those same voters who would have voted for a more class-conscious left candidate. Piketty calls this a "bifurcated" voting situation, meaning many voters will connect either with far-right xenophobic nationalists or left-egalitarian internationalists, but perhaps nothing in-between.

Piketty's paper is an inconvenient truth for the Democratic Party. The party's leaders see themselves as the left wing of capital — supporting social policies that liberal rich people can get behind, never daring to enact economic reforms that might step on rich donors' toes. Hence, the establishment seems intent on anointing the centrist Democrats of capital, who push liberal social policies and neoliberal economic policies."




Uh oh....

PIE CHART FIGHT!!!
Quote
a great swathe of voters simply not voting
I'm not so sure about that. It's not what happened in 2018, and we elected one or two Democratic Socialists to the House with every seat in play. Democrats certainly came out to vote, and there was no big push for progressive goals.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/23/19 04:24 PM
Voters are aware that a vote for Democrats is a vote progress. It may be an illusion, smoke and mirrors, but some small progress usually occurs under a Democratic administration.

But yeah, I think Democrats, and democrats, and some not so democratic, will be voting to oust Trump.
In large numbers.
Everywhere.

It may or may not be enough.
Posted By: Kaine Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/24/19 12:33 PM
I agree with 99% of what you say Gregor, but I have a comment on this:
Quote
but some small progress usually occurs under a Democratic administration
I think this depends on your perspective. If you are in the 1%, these last few years have been extremely progressive. If you are just a normal citizen, not so much.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/24/19 12:58 PM
It looks like the Democratic party is going into it's usual corporate huddle and excluding real progressives again. Hence the financial threats being made into their political policy.

Believing the same "Were not as bad as Republicans!" strategy will be enough to get a top tier time share salesman like Joe Biden elected. I'm not so sure. I'm not alone in expressing refusal to vote for that guy.

The party is pretty much a wholly owned subsidiary of the corporate party. The same party that owns the Republican party
.
I see it as a matter of what to eat at a KenTacokHut. Similar price points with slightly different ingredients owned by the same firm.

Joe Biden is just the executive model of the Boorish Trump.
At least Republican voters are getting something from their party. Democrats? Not so much...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/24/19 09:50 PM
Originally Posted by Kaine
I agree with 99% of what you say Gregor, but I have a comment on this:
Quote
but some small progress usually occurs under a Democratic administration
I think this depends on your perspective. If you are in the 1%, these last few years have been extremely progressive. If you are just a normal citizen, not so much.

Oh, there's been remarkable progress for the 1%. But that happens under either party. "Some small progress" means they passed the ACA under Obama. Gay marriage became legal...small progress for the 99% but quickly snatched away when Republicans come back to power and begin funneling ALL progress back to the 1%...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/24/19 10:19 PM
Quote
I'm not alone in expressing refusal to vote for that guy.
No, you certainly aren't. Just because I liked Clinton doesn't mean I have to like Joe.

Do I think it's a good idea to replace Trump with a terrible Democrat? Just because he's a Democrat?

Do I think that Joe Biden would be a better president than Trump? Not necessarily. He's a bumbling inept fool.

Likely a one term president because he's older than dirt and because he'd be an utter failure as a president, prompting the election of another Republican in 2024.

I'd rather see Trump go ahead and destroy the economy in his second term and the Republican Party along with it.

Pretty nearly any candidate besides Biden would be okay with me. I'm hoping those sensible folks up in Iowa will see it more or less the way I see it. It's up to the primary voters but the way I see it Biden is as big a fraud as Trump.

I won't vote for him.
Just remember folks, we're also voting for Congress and we HAVE to get rid of Mitch McConnell and the Republican Senate Majority.
If we fail, it won't matter if we win POTUS or not.
Actually, Biden with a Democratic Senate and House would not be that bad. He would get some qualified advisers and actually listen to them, so he would not be wrecking everything he touches. He would also probably sign anything congress sent him. Not inspiring leadership, but not disasterous either. And as lame as he is, I think he probably understands that Putin and Kim are not out best buddies.
In any case, I don't think we can personally afford to sit back and watch Trump in what his supporters call "payback mode" for another four years.

Bannon: Trump will be in payback mode if he wins in 2020

If anyone else can afford it, good for them but I think most of us can't.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/26/19 02:46 AM
What, Like Obama?
Would Biden get more third way types that want to kneecap progressives for conservatives like Rahm Emanual gleefully did?
Geitner 'foaming the runway' for his fellow white collar banking grifters while millions lost their homes?

Yes. Please.

I'm of the opinion that the Democratic party needs to be destroyed. There will be no chance for progressives to have a shot at the controls until centrists prove themselves utterly impotent and ineffective to the economic/ political realities they have divorced themselves from for most Americans.

The gift of distraction from Mueller and the Russian hysteria has allowed the neoliberals to largely escape any meaningful critique.

Hopefully, Joe Biden will be the rope for the party to hang themselves with.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/26/19 03:50 AM
Hopefully someone will take away his undeserved lead in the polls because I see exactly what you do and it's not a scenario I want to contemplate. Biden will be a disaster.

I'd rather see the party reformed than destroyed.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/26/19 12:16 PM
Our economic, military and political realities today are nothing I wanted to contemplate but here we are.

At a certain point you realize that there is no salvaging of the democratic party. Having become, as one writer put it, 'one of two factions of the corporate wing'.

For every hopeful green shoot that appears the power structures within the party weed it out to maintain their grip.
When the progressive left decided to ask how come there are so many conservative, corporate stooges, like Lipinski or Manchin, in what had been or still is heavily democratic districts and focus their upcoming efforts on those seats instead of trying to flip red to blue districts, club Dem had an answer. No primary challenges will be tolerated!

What I hate about these party hacks is that there records suck! Yet here we are being admonished to vote for the sake of whatever they got.

Already, tarps are being removed from the hectoring horns. The very soul of the nation is at stake and you will be responsible for the end of the great American experiment and all the promise it held if you sit out or vote third party in the coming election.

I can hear the cries of 'IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT!!!' now.

On the flip side the recognition that there is no route to reform within the party may very well lead to alternatives being established. Already, there are alternative funding sources now established to deal with the frat boys hoarding all the campaign money for them and their ilk.

I suspect that blockading progressives from hiring campaign shops will result in alternative campaign shops, outside the influence of the DNC, to be formed.

Ditto with the media's near blackout of left wing commentators or arguments getting aired.

This may be the silver lining and start of something better than what the Democrats represent now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/26/19 02:22 PM
I don't see how this could have happenned last night without these alternative support structures:

Caban for the win!

Caban would have had her knees broke by Emanual before 2016, I would confidently guess.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/26/19 03:15 PM
"But this election has ramifications beyond the reform movement, and beyond Queens. As others have pointed out, the Democratic establishment in New York and Washington was shocked by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset victory over Crowley last year; for much of the campaign, Crowley didn’t even bother to show his face. That was not true this time; the establishment aggressively backed Katz—the whole Queens congressional delegation endorsed her, except for Ocasio-Cortez—but it wasn’t enough to beat Cabán, who had an army of small donors behind her."

A more nuanced view
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/27/19 03:20 PM
It's encouraging to see, but I'm not gonna read too much into it. She was the better candidate and it was a lot of the same voters who sent AOC to Washington. A lot of people are sick of the Democratic machine and its kowtowing to corporate interests, but not enough to make a difference nationwide yet.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/01/19 04:07 PM
Yeah, time will tell wether or not it's got any legs. The nearly dormant progressive left was enrgized in 2016 though and it's had some notable successes in the off year and mid-terms . I'll take what I can get and hope it keeps on truckin.
In Upstate a similar election played out last week as well. 3 young progressive candidates went up against the party backed nominees and all three party backed candidates lost.
The Democratic party has to pay lip service to more progressive proposals. Some positions are currently out of favor that should have been obvious.
Some myths about politics have been dispelled to an increased audience.
My sunny side of the street, I guess.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/01/19 06:43 PM
Quote
3 young progressive candidates

We could sure use a lot more of those on ballots nationwide.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/02/19 08:44 PM
I would settle for more progressive and socialist districts being allowed to have a more progressive socialist candidates to keep incumbents honest and truly representing their constituents.

Oddly can't happen for some reason.

After the first Democratic Presidential Candidate debate of what appears will be a ratings grope death march of TeeVee executives I rather enjoyed the beat down Joe Biden got on his ACTUAL record. At time he looked cratered and word is the smart money is looking into other shop windows. I hope that trend continues.

For every one of the candidates I hope it happens. I'd like to think consistency would matter on some of the most existential topics in human history but I could be wrong. Let's go to the records and see who's been walking the walk.

Or there might be an internet sex tape scandal that takes our breath away for weeks.

Gawd, I'm glad I gave up TV when it went digital!

Quote
internet sex tape scandal

I think Trump has made sex scandals obsolete. Anybody can do almost anything, and still become President. It's the American Dream rooting around in the cesspool.
I saw a video where they were claiming that Obama is now rated as the worst President since Truman by 33% of the population. Of course that's just the Trump base following his obsession with The Black Guy. I suspect that if you ask them about specific actions and policies they didn't like the only thing they can come up with is ObamaCare, which is actually serving most of them very well.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/05/19 04:51 PM
Perhaps you've forgotten that Obama was a liar? That he blew up the deficit? That he ruled by executive order like some kind of tinpot dictator?
Don't forget he went golfing and wasn't carrying some White guy's clubs! The nerve!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/06/19 12:22 PM
In hindsight, Obama turned out to be a disappointment.
He talked of people's material concerns in 08 but legislated from the right. He stocked his cabinet with finance.
Obama did NOT legislate because he wasn't in the legislature. I think he would have been a lot more productive if Congress had not blocked his every move. I don't think you can blame him for that, unless you think he should have ordered a few selective assassinations.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/07/19 03:52 AM
The Obama years were disappointing but it wasn't his fault.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/07/19 10:46 AM
He was erudite and charming. My disillusionment began with the banking program. For years it was to easy to play reactionary politics and defend him from bigots and zealots but there were uneasy signs during his administration.
Time and distance for some perspective about his performance in the kitchen have only turned me off to his presidency more. Some of his cabinet choices proved themselves to be real tools. Geitner comes to mind.

He did bail out Detroit so there is that. No small thing at the time.

Has anyone noticed how much attention NewsCorp is paying to Biden and Harris, not so much to the second place candidate?

I can see Kamala getting the party nod. She's like a Hillary 2.0 for libs.

She's a women! She's tough on poor people! She's a minority! She's fiscally conservative!

She seemed deferential to Sanders during the debates, as most of the candidates now are considering how far the party has had to shift the conversation to his platform.

I think the Frat boys and girls are playing an inside long game on the Sanders threat. I can't see how it won't get decided by super delegates in a second round of voting at the convention with, what is it 72 candidates running? Some on little more than a few billionaires' money.
So if blue dog Joe hangs tough to the convention I could see things getting interesting within the conservative liberal establishment. Do you support the Virtue Signal candidate like Harris or the reflexive instinct of a Blue Dog Democrat with neoliberal street cred like Biden.

I think the media corps. will continue to black out Sanders alternative.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/07/19 12:27 PM
"Grim argued in the Post that the old-guard Democrats — led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — were buffaloed long ago by The Gipper: by Ronald Reagan’s presidential landslide in 1980 and 1984 reelection. They suffered a “traumatic political coming-of-age” in Reagan’s rise and have never been the same, he argued.

Because of that experience, their consistent fallback position is: “Now is not the time; push too fast or too far, and there’ll be a backlash,” according to Grim.

The old-era Democrats are still now “unable to embrace the new political environment in which the progressive agenda is genuinely popular,” he noted. “For people under a certain age, this slinking in the corner is deeply strange behavior.”

While I'm glad Grim said it I'm not so sure if that's truly what motivates the entrenched party leadership. IMO the leadership's interests are not that different from republicans interests as a whole. They just sell it a different way.

Full Article
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/07/19 05:13 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
internet sex tape scandal

I think Trump has made sex scandals obsolete. Anybody can do almost anything, and still become President. It's the American Dream rooting around in the cesspool.
Any Republican can do almost anything. I guarantee the conservative moralist brigade will attack mercilessly every minor transgression of the libertine "Democrat" party. Pederasts, predators, and preachers are welcome in the GOP, but the standard doubles when a Democrat is involved.
I see Epstein is back in the legal system for trafficking minors. It will be interesting if he gives up his buddy Donald for another deal.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/19 10:35 AM
Or Clinton for that matter.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/19 04:34 PM
Steyer looks like he's lacing up!

Billionair cuts to the chase
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/19 06:18 PM
I don't frequent any places where I might run across the actual vile stupidity of Republicans but...

Do you suppose they are using the term clown-car in reference to our ridiculous field of presidential wannabes?

I'm really looking forward to the winnowing that will quickly take place once the primaries get underway.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Our economic, military and political realities today are nothing I wanted to contemplate but here we are.

You also don't want to contemplate the numbers, which are in the centrist's favor. That's human nature because the overwhelming majority of human beings simply are not political.

So in essence, you'd rather destroy the majority in the hopes that a minority gets to pick up the pieces and take control while giving a free ride to the Right.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Gawd, I'm glad I gave up TV when it went digital!

Why?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/19 09:31 PM
I gave it up years before that. I hate to even be in a room where a television is on....
Originally Posted by Greger
I gave it up years before that. I hate to even be in a room where a television is on....

Even if it's a great concert, documentary or film?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/09/19 03:42 PM
It's just endless chatter as far as I'm concerned. Video is your livelihood so I can't imagine you'd understand my complete disdain for it.

I enjoy the occasional movie in a theatre, or a live concert now and then, or used to. Mobility issues keep me pretty much homestuck these days but I've never once considered television as a form of entertainment.

I watch some Youtube videos sometimes, mostly about machinery or cooking, sometimes some music, sometimes a boxing or MMA match. But I'm likely to lose interest and click away...preferring to read or write, or just sit and think.
In silence.

Townies know nothing of silence.

Originally Posted by Greger
It's just endless chatter as far as I'm concerned. Video is your livelihood so I can't imagine you'd understand my complete disdain for it.

I enjoy the occasional movie in a theatre, or a live concert now and then, or used to. Mobility issues keep me pretty much homestuck these days but I've never once considered television as a form of entertainment.

I watch some Youtube videos sometimes, mostly about machinery or cooking, sometimes some music, sometimes a boxing or MMA match. But I'm likely to lose interest and click away...preferring to read or write, or just sit and think.
In silence.

Townies know nothing of silence.

Au contraire, even Leon Russell once quipped "My hobby is silence."
It's not just video being my career, it's film.
For me at least, film is an art form, and a good film is like observing beauty, humanity, conflict, joy...the entire scale of emotions. Film is communication of ideas. Film is photography.
Film is also sound, it's music, it is the audible magic carpet that propels a person's heart.

And with the advent of high definition digital and the drastic drop in HDTV prices it's now possible to bring that experience right into your home.

Dustin Hoffman was recently quoted as saying,
"I think right now, television is the best it's ever been, and I think it's also the worst that movies have ever been - in the 50 years I've been doing it, it's the worst."

He's not talking about sitcoms.

Anyway, please know that solitude and silence are also valued by us "townies". (LOL)
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/09/19 11:36 PM
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/19 01:54 AM
Video and films are certainly art forms. Just not ones I'm especially drawn to.
First thing townies always say when they come out here..."Sure is quiet out here..."
No traffic noise, no sirens, no airplanes. Cicadas in the trees, chickens squawking, hawks shrieking, wind soughing through the pines. It seems to make them a little bit nervous. Like they're listening for banjos.

But I have a confession...I liked "Stranger Things". Watched seasons one and two and will eventually watch season 3. I've kinda got a crush on Winona Ryder but the urban fantasy/horror aspect of it really appealed to me too. "Warehouse 13" was another....I'da been seriously into "Game of Thrones" but too much effort to watch it without HBO. I've just got rather odd and peculiar tastes. I thought the ill fated "Lone Ranger" was an awesome flick! And "Kill Bill" loved that one...so you see....it's best that I'm kept isolated out here..."Natural Born Killers"...anything by Tarantino...
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/19 04:27 AM
Yes, well... I still hope to visit you before one of us croaks...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/19 03:14 PM
Ditto
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/19 04:50 PM
'It's not show art, its show business!!' - Gary Blair

It's not needed anymore. I still have a nice lil av system but I treat TV like sex. I won't pay for it but I'm not judging. It's a mostly neoliberal hellscape enforcing a dominant cultural narrative aimed at pushing product.

Soooo sick of another recycled Joseph Campbell hero journey.

I agree with Gregor. Trying to talk to someone in a room with a TV is like a Roger Altman conversation. It's slightly schizophrenic.

Libraries also work well for content.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/19 05:38 PM
Television is a hypnotic media that ropes you in and traps you. It's addictive and invasive. It stops your thought process and pumps false information into your synapses...you switch into teacher/student mode and let it brainwash you. The Milk of the Poppy can do wonderful things, just as television might sometimes deliver wonderful products. But too much and you're addicted.

I guess my thing is video games. The artwork these days is amazing and it's interactive so I'm not just sitting there drooling while the story plays out, I'm part of the action.
I installed some antennas when it went digital and video recording software so I could record multiple channels at once. Have not bothered for a few years. Commercials were so obnoxious, I just watch Netflix and Amazon Prime now. My wife watches YouTube a lot. News is on MSNBC, CNN, and BBC streaming.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I installed some antennas when it went digital and video recording software so I could record multiple channels at once. Have not bothered for a few years. Commercials were so obnoxious, I just watch Netflix and Amazon Prime now. My wife watches YouTube a lot. News is on MSNBC, CNN, and BBC streaming.

Well that's also digital. The HD digital switchover wasn't just about over the air broadcast. I'm sure you already know this but the entire concept of television was drastically changed.

We didn't just swap our NTSC for ATSC, we abandoned all analog recording formats altogether, and we've now even abandoned analog photochemical (motion picture film) along with it.
The movie industry was so sure for so many years that film would be preserved as an acquisition format.

It wasn't.
Here's a dumpster filled with Panavision motion picture film camera bodies.

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

Here's me with the very last camera I used on a professional commercial shoot, a "Panavised" Sony F5 digital cinema camera, in 2016.

[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]

Simply put the film business IS now the television business, because there's no difference anymore between the two except for some overpaid moguls and an old outdated "studio system" that can't even maintain a hold on theaters anymore, because the theater is now in your living room for a couple hundred bucks.

And that's okay because it appears that theater patrons don't even know how to be civil in a theater anyway.
But movie theaters are about to die a long and painful death anyway.
Premium Video On Demand with same day or a ten day release window is the end of movie theater exclusivity.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/11/19 05:04 PM
Quote
I installed some antennas when it went digital and video recording software so I could record multiple channels at once. Have not bothered for a few years. Commercials were so obnoxious

Congratulations. You escaped.

Quote
the theater is now in your living room for a couple hundred bucks.

Soon we won't have to leave our cubicles for anything! CGI will replace reality and eventually we will all just be digitized and fed into the system. Wetware will become a thing of the past...
And AI is going to be able to create any VR adventure you want in real time. Being a movie or TV star will just be replaced by computer models of your body, your movements, and your voice. Instead of being paid a million dollars for a movie role, you will get one dollar a million times from viewers who license your data for their own VR experiences.

Want a romantic interlude with Judy Hopps? No problem: Costs you a dollar to Disney. Want to see Brad Pitt and a young Elizabeth Taylor in a remake of The Wizard of Oz? Danny Devito and Miley Cyrus in The Last Tango in Paris. Anything you can think of, the machine can make for you. The censorship aspects become impossible to enforce, because CGI images are not real people.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/19 10:47 AM
There's a good book I read awhile back called 'Snow Crash' that had a reality not unlike what you're describing, PIA. I think it was called the 'metaverse' but it was more like a 3-d internet where you walk around in it with your avatar, not unlike a video game. You were 'goggled in' and could hook up with friends and pretty much anything was on tap to do.

Wetware!

Yeeesh, that sounds so dystopian.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/19 03:06 PM
Loved Snow Crash! Did you know there's a sort of a parody of it called Head Crash? It's a 'must read' if you liked Snow Crash.
Snow Crash was okay, but some of Stephenson's later books are fantastic. I especially recommend Cryptonomicon, System of the World, and Seven Eves.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/13/19 05:40 PM
Wow, his later stuff gets better? cool.
Head Crash! I'll look for it.

It also got mention in a book called 'I Hate the Internet'. Not a great book to be reading at that time as it seem to predict what was coming in our society and made reference to 'Snow Crash' as being all to prescient. A good book to read if you got the time but depressingly unsparing as it strips away the veneer of our current society.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/13/19 07:20 PM
His Baroque Cycle trilogy(of which System of the World is part) is pretty much a 1600 page prequel to Cryptonomicon.

You get to meet and hang out with Isaac Newton and many other of the early Enlightenment thinkers and architects, You get to be familiar with the Sun King Louis XIV! And the adventures of Half Cocked Jack, King of the Vagabonds, will take you all over the 17th century world. The history of computers and money...

If someone ever asked me what the best books I ever read were...
Neal Stephenson is on the very top of the list.

Headcrash is available as a used paperback on Amazon for around $5.

They didn't just "goggle in"

A proctoprod was part of the immersive experience...

His second book "Zodiak" is a hoot too.
Didn't like Zodiak all that much, which kind of turned me off of Stephenson for a while. Then I read another later book and I was hooked. I meant the trilogy when I said System of the World. Great stuff and it will keep you busy for a while.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/14/19 01:59 PM
Quote
I meant the trilogy when I said System of the World.

I always call the trilogy System Of The World too. I had to look it up. It's really a more fitting title for the story.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/15/19 12:55 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Voters are aware that a vote for Democrats is a vote progress. It may be an illusion, smoke and mirrors, but some small progress usually occurs under a Democratic administration.

But yeah, I think Democrats, and democrats, and some not so democratic, will be voting to oust Trump.
In large numbers.
Everywhere.

It may or may not be enough.
Democratic unity in 2020

Quote
But one moment that truly summed up what's going on with the progressive grassroots happened when I spoke to a crowd of a little over 100 people at the convention. I asked them which candidate they were supporting or at least considering. I began by asking about Sen. Elizabeth Warren, which elicited a big cheer. Then Bernie Sanders, and again a sizable number applauded. I went on to measure support (in an unscientific way) for a few of the other top tier candidates, such as Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, with all receiving some level of support, but far below that of Warren and Sanders.

Then I came to the person leading all the recent polls: Joe Biden. The response to his name was both unanimous and comical. Not one person applauded.

After a moment of awkward silence, the room then erupted in laughter. Then, however, came the most important question of my informal survey, as I asked, "If Biden is the nominee, will you support him?" Those same people who had just been silent burst into applause with many agreeing that they would vote for a Democrat no matter who it was.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/15/19 03:44 PM
And this right here is what I was talking about in the roundtable a moment ago. These folks are VOTERS. They'll vote blue no matter who, just like I will. But non-voters will sit it out in huge numbers.

Biden will pull off a squeaker if he's the candidate.

Warren or Sanders would win in a landslide.

Biden will attempt to re-assemble the mess Trump has made into his 1980s vision of what America should be, then lose in 2024 handing the ball back to Republicans.

A truly progressive candidate will re-make Trump's disaster into the America that America should be. Voters will once again have something to be positive about, something to get excited about, and something to get out and vote for.

A New Tide will rise which actually floats all boats, not just the yachts. Higher wages, better benefits, health insurance, as much education as anyone wants. You want business to flourish? Make sure their customers have plenty of money to spend.
Then we'd better do a good job of selling Warren, and she better not fall for Trump's Pocahontas nonsense in the debates.

I tend to view the upcoming two party debates as being somewhat similar to a first day in prison, where the new guy has to pick the biggest baddest inmate and punch him as hard as they can.

You have to let the bully know you're not going to take any of his sh!t right off the bat.

Anyone who engages Trump the way Hillz did is dead meat.
He only understands one means of communication.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 01:22 AM
Near as I can tell, the primaries are decided by older white voters, Boomers are still in charge....Biden it is...

That would be unfortunate. I don't think many Democrats favor Biden as their first choice, but they would vote for him if he is the nominee. Still almost a year to most primaries. A lot can (and does) happen in a year.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 01:01 PM
Mobilizing your base so more of them show up to the polls seems to be a good way to win elections.

2016 had low voter turnout.

Dems want to run an 'anyone but Trump' campaign and get an acceptable candidate for their donor class. Rank and file dem voters will fall in party line. I'm not convinced that will work just as it failed in 2016 but it's been the familiar game played for as long as I can remember with a couple of exceptions.


Sanders would be one of those exceptions, IMO. He'll get no traction with the wealthy and Hillary supporters. Question is will he have a deep enough bench of support to overcome those wealthy and Hillary Dems?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 03:35 PM
Quote
2016 had low voter turnout.
No it didn't. It had higher turnout than in 2012.

American voter turnout never varies much...

[Linked Image from cdn.vox-cdn.com]
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 04:27 PM
Quote
Sanders would be one of those exceptions, IMO. He'll get no traction with the wealthy and Hillary supporters. Question is will he have a deep enough bench of support to overcome those wealthy and Hillary Dems?

I've got another theory...The Press doesn't like Sanders.

The Press controls public opinion.

I'm a Hillary supporter and he's got plenty of traction with me. I can't speak for the wealthy but that money is mostly going to the DNC and PACs rather than to individual candidates. But the shine is gone off of Bernie just like it did with Beto. He'd be doing himself a favor if he got out after Iowa and endorsed Warren. I'm disappointed about both of them but have to move on as my early bets fail to pay off.

It's eight months until the Iowa caucuses. Warren's star is rising. I'm fine with that. Harris does nothing for me, an able politician but not somebody I want to see elevated to the highest office in the land.



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 04:43 PM
True that. Clumsy way to bury the point.

Trying to say you have to turn out your base in greater percentage than the other party. There's a million charts and graphs and they all point to something but I'm still standing on mobilizing your base in greater numbers.

I recall Democratic turnout was lower than Republican in 2016. Might be wrong on that too.

Trump has smartly kept his voters foaming and howling for 3 yrs now. He can count on that base of support to show up.

It will be up to the Democratic machine to turn out it's base in large enough percentage (agreed, where you really have too!).

Clearly, that did not happen in 2016. Recall the Hillary machine was hoping for Trump to win the Republican nomination as they believed he would be easier to beat...

I think the Democrats are at risk of repeating the same mistake in 2020.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 04:56 PM
Not that it matters but I believe the Democratic party is incapable of transforming public opinion into political support as effectively a Republican do.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 05:44 PM
Quote
Trump has smartly kept his voters foaming and howling for 3 yrs now. He can count on that base of support to show up.

That's 42% of the voters best as I can tell, can you win an election with that?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Not that it matters but I believe the Democratic party is incapable of transforming public opinion into political support as effectively a Republican do.

Then you understand after all!
I've said MANY times that Republicans work like an ARMY while Democrats act like a bunch of hissing kittens and hand-wringing purity ponies over minutae.

It's like watching a flock of meadowlarks trying to beat up a monitor lizard with a bouquet of tulips.

If we are up against a machine like that and forced to play on a tilted playing field (gerrymandering and vote suppression) then it is clear we have to look at overall mass electability first, just to get a foothold back.

It is NOT HOW elections should work and I am the first to agree with you on that but it's the reality right here and right now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 07:53 PM
Yes.
It's already happened.
The Democratic machine ran a candidate that had low voter approval. It didn't help having the outright corruption of the parties nominating process laid bare in a time of anti-establishment anger.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 08:07 PM
Mobilize your base with proposals that have broad popular support, directly addressing people's material concern.

Corbyn did it in the U.K. Obrador did it in Mexico.

My question to you, Jeff, is why the Democratic party won't?

We saw how 2016 went down. The fact that I keep hearing 'anyone but Trump' from libs tells me the party is not going to in 2020 either.

The latest punching left by Pelosi and now Trump confirm the parties position of having no vision of transformational change for mobilizing the base and, just as important, increasing it.

I think they're going to try and pick up a rebound off of Trump, just as they'd hoped in 2016.



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/16/19 08:28 PM
A timely article from a lefty mag is describing another fascinating race shaping up in W.Virginia.

The reason I'm fascinated by W.Virginia are it's labor history and politics. Another is the deafening silence for any political examination in how the Democratic party has so alienated itself from voters who were solidly blue. For me V.Virginia represents a broader dynamic going on in the Democratic party between genuine progressives and inclusive populists pitted against the corporate wing. Between the Steve Smiths and the Joe Manchins, Sanders vs Clinton, etc..:

"A contest between Manchin and Smith will draw a line in the sand, forcing those interests that have traditionally adhered to the state Democratic Party’s coalition to decide whether they believe in a party that continues to be dominated by corporate interests or one that seeks to build a genuine popular movement to benefit working people."


Full article

Very impressive article about Elizabeth Warren. She's all about policies and her policy ideas come from the think tank in her Senate office and a network of the best and brightest we have in America. I think she might be the most competent President we've ever had!

This Was Elizabeth Warren’s Plan All Along

The bottom line is that everything comes down to income inequality.

Quote
“It looks like we’re trying to solve a lot of different problems, but we’re only trying to solve one problem,” said Jon Donenberg, who is now the policy director for Warren’s presidential campaign. “It’s the rigged system; it’s the corrupt government and economy that only benefits those at the top. Every solution flows from that.”
Almost Robert Reich verbatim. And I loved this quote:

Quote
When all the research is complete and the policies appear done, Warren has one final task. It must be possible to explain every policy that comes out of her office in practical language to anyone.

She asks staffers to consider, “How can I tell the story about this that people will understand?” according to Levitin.

When she ran the Congressional Oversight Panel, every 100-page report her office put out first went to her desk, where she would write a one-page plain-language explanation for the press and the public.

“Her unusual strength is being able to translate really complex problems into a way that an ordinary person can understand them,” Levitin said.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/17/19 11:22 PM
Quote
The bottom line is that everything comes down to income inequality.

Hammer, meet nail.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/18/19 02:31 AM
She'll get the Lanyard Liberal vote. She's got them policies.
I don't think she'll be transformative though.
She wouldn't be a disaster as much as we've seen. I think she believes she can tame capitalism.
I'm surprised you don't have more complaints about her, considering her role in bailing out the banks in 2009. But no matter: She would be the most competent President ever, but she won't get elected. The thing I learned in 2016 is that women don't trust other women. There's just some deep misogyny in most women. I suppose it has something to do with competition.

But she would make a great VP to some pretty boy with credentials, like George Cloony. Between Amal for foreign policy advice and Elizabeth for domestic, he could be great. A liberal's Ronald Reagan. Since we have amply demonstrated that any rich celebrity can be elected, I think George is a shoe-in. He has 1000 times Trump's CV.

And it would be funny to see all those Trump supporter's wives vote for George because he's hot.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/18/19 06:41 PM
Clooney might be a liberal wet dream, but he aint in the race. I'll go this far though...if we have to have Biden as the nominee maybe he'll pick Warren to run with him....

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/19 12:23 PM
A comedian quipped about the bank bailout of 2009- 'Why didn't the government give PEOPLE the 1 1/2 trillion dollars with the caveat that the money had to be deposited in a bank and only so much could be withdrawn at a time? Banks would get recapitalized, people would not have lost their homes and demand in the economy would have been restored. Why was it given to banks to give themselves pay raises and buy up all the foreclosed homes?'

For me, that wasn't so much a joke but a comparison of an FDR style solution and a neoliberal solution.

I'm not convinced, when given the choice, which way Warren would go. I do know of another candidate's direction and will be rooting for him. He who is a solid second that shall not be named, or if necessary, only in negative framing by the establishment.

If Biden get the nod, I'll join the majority and vote for no one.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/19 01:39 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
A comedian quipped about the bank bailout of 2009- 'Why didn't the government give PEOPLE the 1 1/2 trillion dollars ...
I was told, by a TeaPartier no less, that the bailout should have been spent on paying off peoples' mortgages - according to him it would have taken care of ALL of them. Of course, it would have taken out the banks as well, and eliminated the debt economy - which is practically the whole economy... po' banks!

We is so fekked...

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/19 06:01 PM
It reminds me of Ralph Nader's convergence theory and show's me where some hope lie's, Logs.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/19 07:26 PM
Quote
'Why didn't the government give PEOPLE the 1 1/2 trillion dollars ...
Why wasn't the recent tax bill aimed at keeping money in the pockets of those who need it most...?

Why is a living wage such an atrocity? National healthcare such an outrage, and free education beyond the pale?

Biden is taking a firm stance against Medicare For All.

He took a firm stance against the ACA too. Wonder how he stands on the $15 minimum wage. The House has offered up an opportunity for the candidates to discus it.
Or they just could have given everyone some bank stock when they bailed them out. Then it wouldn't have been a bail-out so much as forced recapitalization. The people getting foreclosed could have traded their stock for their mortgage debt. People with no debt would own some bank stock.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/19 11:48 PM
They could have done a lot of things. It's what they did, though.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
A comedian quipped about the bank bailout of 2009- 'Why didn't the government give PEOPLE the 1 1/2 trillion dollars with the caveat that the money had to be deposited in a bank and only so much could be withdrawn at a time? Banks would get recapitalized, people would not have lost their homes and demand in the economy would have been restored. Why was it given to banks to give themselves pay raises and buy up all the foreclosed homes?'

For me, that wasn't so much a joke but a comparison of an FDR style solution and a neoliberal solution.

That's channeling Will Rogers in 1932:

Originally Posted by Will Rogers
This election was lost four and six years ago, not this year. They [Republicans] didn’t start thinking of the old common fellow till just as they started out on the election tour. The money was all appropriated for the top in the hopes that it would trickle down to the needy. Mr. Hoover was an engineer. He knew that water trickles down. Put it uphill and let it go and it will reach the driest little spot. But he didn’t know that money trickled up. Give it to the people at the bottom and the people at the top will have it before night, anyhow. But it will at least have passed through the poor fellows hands. They saved the big banks, but the little ones went up the flue.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I'm not convinced, when given the choice, which way Warren would go. I do know of another candidate's direction and will be rooting for him. He who is a solid second that shall not be named, or if necessary, only in negative framing by the establishment.

If Biden get the nod, I'll join the majority and vote for no one.

That's not what Will Rogers would have done.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/19 10:33 PM
Will Rodgers had an entirely different political landscape to navigate than the one we navigate today. At least there was some leftism in his time, though the second great purge was getting underway. There was still some.
Hardly any today and the Democratic party is going into overdrive to see that there isn't anymore in 2020.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/19 01:56 AM
"Last week, the Boston Herald (7/11/19) decried Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib and Omar as far-left “bullies” who were undermining Pelosi, and “sowing division” at a time when the party “needs to project a unified—and more centrist—front to retain its majority and knock Donald Trump from office.” The piece did not, however, scrutinize Pelosi’s political positions—or even identify them at all.

This is a common occurrence in media, and has the effect of normalizing the right wing of the party as the default. Constantly reminders that Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez and co. are leftists prime the news consumer to be on the defensive. “You are about to hear socialist propaganda,” is the subtle message delivered. But an analogous message is not transmitted if others are not identified as on the right. Understanding the power of this technique, in 2015, nearly 90,000 Britons signed a petition asking the BBC, in the interests of even-handedness, to start describing Prime Minister David Cameron as “right-wing,” just as it constantly called Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn “left-wing.”

Full article

Lets me honest Jeff. You may be comfortable voting right wing and feel absolved if there is a D next to the name but I no longer am. I won't vote right wing and have had years of resentment having been hectored by libs into doing so. Lesser of two evils and all that rot.
I have concluded the Democratic party is a paid instrument to keep any avenue of leftist political expression neutralized. To ignore it is simple willful ignorance at this point in these dark and creative times.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/19 02:42 AM
Quote
I have concluded the Democratic party is a paid instrument to keep any avenue of leftist political expression neutralized. To ignore it is simple willful ignorance at this point in these dark and creative times.
Well, yeah, pretty much. How long has it taken you to figure this out, Grasshopper?

But come election day we get to choose whether we want Democrats or Republicans appointing judges. It's not a venue for leftist political expression it's where we choose Republican or Democrat. Doesn't matter if you vote or not, one side or the other will win. If I had to get out of this chair to vote I'd sit home too. My district is deep ruby red like the glowing eyes of Cthulu. Democrats don't even run for office around here. So my vote is dust in the wind anyway...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/19 09:17 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Well, yeah, pretty much. How long has it taken you to figure this out, Grasshopper?

Somewhere between Bill Clinton and Obama.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Will Rodgers had an entirely different political landscape to navigate than the one we navigate today. At least there was some leftism in his time, though the second great purge was getting underway. There was still some.
Hardly any today and the Democratic party is going into overdrive to see that there isn't anymore in 2020.

At least there was some leftism in 1932 in the USA? People were just then furtively dipping their toe. How do you expect it to happen, just all of sudden, like switching on a light switch? It took forty years to drag us this far to the Right.

I think the landscape wasn't much different than right now.
The so called "Business Plot" featuring a consortium of far Right business interests were contemplating an armed overthrow of the Roosevelt administration in 1933.


Originally Posted by chunkstyle
"Last week, the Boston Herald (7/11/19) decried Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib and Omar as far-left “bullies” who were undermining Pelosi, and “sowing division” at a time when the party “needs to project a unified—and more centrist—front to retain its majority and knock Donald Trump from office.” The piece did not, however, scrutinize Pelosi’s political positions—or even identify them at all.

This is a common occurrence in media, and has the effect of normalizing the right wing of the party as the default. Constantly reminders that Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez and co. are leftists prime the news consumer to be on the defensive. “You are about to hear socialist propaganda,” is the subtle message delivered. But an analogous message is not transmitted if others are not identified as on the right. Understanding the power of this technique, in 2015, nearly 90,000 Britons signed a petition asking the BBC, in the interests of even-handedness, to start describing Prime Minister David Cameron as “right-wing,” just as it constantly called Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn “left-wing.”

Full article

Lets me honest Jeff. You may be comfortable voting right wing and feel absolved if there is a D next to the name but I no longer am. I won't vote right wing and have had years of resentment having been hectored by libs into doing so. Lesser of two evils and all that rot.
I have concluded the Democratic party is a paid instrument to keep any avenue of leftist political expression neutralized. To ignore it is simple willful ignorance at this point in these dark and creative times.

Then enjoy four more years of Trump!
Sorry that you interpret my saying I can't afford four more years of Trump as "hectoring". Clearly you can afford it.
Good for you.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/19 05:20 PM
Trump isn't the problem. He's a symptom. Electing a crappy Democrat(Biden) is going to make the problem worse. It just kicks the can down the road. No telling which reality tv star or Nascar driver they'll elect in 2024 after four years of boring Democratic leadership.

Actually leaving Trump in office until the economy finally collapses might be better than Biden. At least in the long run. Might be pretty ugly here in the short term where we all live...

Trump is a symptom
Ever see Idiocracy? It will definitely be a WWE wrestler.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 01:19 AM
There was much left wing activity before the 1930's, Jeff.
Working class people were organizing and agitating since the 1600's. To say we were just dipping our toe into the water by te 1930's would be inaccurate to say the least.
Heard of Eugene Debs?
High plains farm revolts?
IWW?
Didn't they burn a couple of guys for being anarchists in 1920's?

Dipping our toe? I think we read very different histories Jeff. We have purged any leftist thinking in this country so effectively that we've given guy's like JGW the idea that it's all right to simply say the left merely believes in clear food labeling.

Again, you might have a way to rationalize voting for right wing candidates but I can no longer do it. Democrats have been carrying water for the ultra right and giving them an even freer hand to explore the outer limits of their ideology by snuffing any left wing counter proposals.

Like a green new deal
living wage
medicare4all
etc...
Back in the 30's a lot of people were socialist and even communist in the US. The peak of this was in 1945 when our allies the Soviets essentially defeated the Nazis. But then came the Red Scare but also the brutal invasions and occupations as the Iron Curtain went up. That had a huge effect on the left in the US. And I think it continues today, with stuff like Russia's invasion of Ukraine. shooting down commercial airliners, China's genocide against the Uighurs, etc. Nobody wants to be THAT socialist. The communists in the US are pretty much just a few mentally ill folks who thrive on the notoriety. The remaining left are union-supporters, employee-owned company supporters, now medicare4all supporters: In other words, FDR-style Democrats. Just a little bit left of centrist Democrats.

So the "left's" positions are not hard for the rest of the Democrats to agree with. They just think that they might not be able to implement them, because half the country is still scared of "socialists coming for their kids and their guns". I don't think centrists are the left's enemies: I think they are just practical. Convince the majority of voters that medicare4all is good, and the Democrats will do it.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Back in the 30's a lot of people were socialist and even communist in the US. The peak of this was in 1945 when our allies the Soviets essentially defeated the Nazis.


Eugene V. Debs ran as a Socialist candidate for President of the United States five times, including 1900 (earning 0.6% of the popular vote), 1904 (3.0%), 1908 (2.8%), 1912 (6.0%) and 1920.(3.4%)
At its peak in August 1917, IWW membership was 150,000.
So yes, we were dipping our toe.

Fast forward to the Thirties, the Crash, the Depression.
Perhaps I understated more than a little.
What was the peak membership in the USA of socialist and communist groups?
But I'm looking for the kind of numbers that win elections. Majority numbers, the kinds of numbers that move countries one direction or another.

Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
But then came the Red Scare but also the brutal invasions and occupations as the Iron Curtain went up. That had a huge effect on the left in the US. And I think it continues today, with stuff like Russia's invasion of Ukraine. shooting down commercial airliners, China's genocide against the Uighurs, etc. Nobody wants to be THAT socialist. The communists in the US are pretty much just a few mentally ill folks who thrive on the notoriety. The remaining left are union-supporters, employee-owned company supporters, now medicare4all supporters: In other words, FDR-style Democrats. Just a little bit left of centrist Democrats.

So the "left's" positions are not hard for the rest of the Democrats to agree with.

Of course they're not difficult to align with. The problem is that we didn't fight hard enough back then to counter the smears, anymore than we're fighting hard enough now. The labels stuck back then and Republicans are using that now.
Why are we resistant to ducking and weaving, so that we can avoid being bashed on the head repeatedly?


Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
They just think that they might not be able to implement them, because half the country is still scared of "socialists coming for their kids and their guns". I don't think centrists are the left's enemies: I think they are just practical. Convince the majority of voters that medicare4all is good, and the Democrats will do it.

Convince the majority of voters that FDR style New Deal social democracy is not the brutal confiscatory boogeyman of the Soviets or Venezuelans.
CONTROL the DIALOGUE by CONTROLLING the power of the LABELS.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Again, you might have a way to rationalize voting for right wing candidates but I can no longer do it.

Can no longer do it? It's amazing that we can field 23 candidates, most all of them significantly to the Left of Trump, even a moderate milquetoast who is a 90's retread and STILL to the Left of Trump, and be tagged a closet Rightie or Right Wing Enabler.

So, moving to the Left is moving to the Right because it's not Left ENOUGH, so we're going to allow Trump to move us even further to the Right because we are not satisfied with the smaller move to the Left.

I think I get the strategy now. I think I understand it. ROTFMOL
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 12:51 PM
Most of the country doesn't have a concept of what a left alternative is and believes the framing from the right on it. Like it's confiscatory, makes people wear plywood suits, drive concrete cars etc...
Eugene Debs is one example. IWW is another. Unions a third socialist and communist, etc, etc, etc. Most are gone now. But we've discussed all this in the thread 'What Left'.
If you think being left of Trump makes you left I don't know what to say. Political dyslexia? I would consider the democrats to be center right to far right and their history of supporting right wingers over leftists is clear. So is selling out Unions and working class people.
We just had a marvelous example of that with the house leadership attacking it's left flank and opening up further attacks on it by the president.
Mocking left wing proposals is another example of punching left.
Closing primary challenges and making the party a club is another example.
For some, these actions should further erode the center rights base of support. My instincts tell me the center right leadership is banking on running a monkey and winning since Trump is so offensive to them. Time will tell.
I'd rather vote for Eugene Debs and not be a part of the rightward drift.
Quote
"Demagogues don’t find radicals to lead; they radicalize their followers one outrage at a time."

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Most of the country doesn't have a concept of what a left alternative is and believes the framing from the right on it. Like it's confiscatory, makes people wear plywood suits, drive concrete cars etc...
Eugene Debs is one example. IWW is another. Unions a third socialist and communist, etc, etc, etc. Most are gone now. But we've discussed all this in the thread 'What Left'.
If you think being left of Trump makes you left I don't know what to say. Political dyslexia?

No, I did not say that being Left of Trump makes one Left, but apparently you're convinced that being Left of Trump makes one Right, and that the only solution is to allow perfect to be the enemy of good, and to allow us to go even further Right in an effort to go Left.
But no dyslexia there!


Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I would consider the democrats to be center right to far right and their history of supporting right wingers over leftists is clear. So is selling out Unions and working class people.
We just had a marvelous example of that with the house leadership attacking it's left flank and opening up further attacks on it by the president.
Mocking left wing proposals is another example of punching left.
Closing primary challenges and making the party a club is another example.
For some, these actions should further erode the center rights base of support. My instincts tell me the center right leadership is banking on running a monkey and winning since Trump is so offensive to them. Time will tell.
I'd rather vote for Eugene Debs and not be a part of the rightward drift.

But we will be able to address these inequities better under four more years of Trump...said NO ONE EVER.

The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 03:01 PM
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."

Such an Orwellian statement. I remember it during the last Presidential election and it was revealing how much that candidate sucked that the more left leaning base kept having that thrown up in their face as a rationale for getting behind the corporate candidate (yet again).It was vacuous and, yes, a form of hectoring.

Vote for who you want Jeff, but for me it comes down to having a line which you can't cross (or follow rather) and for myself I won't follow the Democratic party any further in it's rightward drift. If it has real legitimacy then the Democratic party should be just fine without my vote.

If it losses legitimacy then it should be knocked out in elections and something else will have to replace it that has more. Guilting people is no substitute for good policy and ideas. The party is on notice from what little is left of unions and the same from leftists. It's response was to change party rules and give it's illegitimate cogress members tenurship. That's undemocratic and the question has to be asked 'who's interests are being served with this arrangement?"

It's ironic that Nixon was quoted as saying 'were all Keynesians now". Fast forward 40 some years and we have the head of the democratic party declaring 'were all capitalists now'.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 05:11 PM
Quote
But we will be able to address these inequities better under four more years of Trump...said NO ONE EVER.

I'm not hearing ANY predictions about how Biden plans to fix anything. Warren has plans in place, Bernie has been planning this forever. Biden has Obama.

I'll have the gluten free, sodium free, thin sliced Milquetoast please! With a side of climate catastrophe and a global extinction event.

I certainly don't blame a leftie for not planning to vote for Biden. I don't know why any thinking democrat would vote for him in the first place.
Is he inevitable? Or does he really just represent the undecided voters? Bernie and Liz are pretty much tied for second. Here's a scenario I'm comfortable with...Maybe Biden will fade and this will turn into a race between Bernie and Liz!

EPIC

Trump would need to nuke Paris to get any attention while that was going on.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 05:23 PM
Well were all hoping for a Sanders/Warren ticket and bulldoze the corporate wall down...

"When people say that Democrats should unify, the part they leave out is most important: Around what? Nearly everyone in Washington seems to assume that progressives should shut up, accept their place, and unify around the status quo.

Think about what an arrogant and preposterous request that is. Progressive leaders, including our representatives in Congress, should abandon all of our policy positions and sell out our voters to please the Democratic establishment. Saying “hell no” to that would be an enormous understatement."

Cenk Uygur in 'The Wall Street Journal'. Strange days indeed...

Democrats should unify behind AOC
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 06:44 PM
Fantasy Sanders intro music for his acceptance speech for the nomination in 2020....



laugh
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 10:26 PM
Oh Dear!

The degree of seperation between these camps gets smaller and smaller...

"How did wealthy sex offender Jeffrey Epstein come to be palling around with Bill Clinton and Donald Trump?

People who know those involved said Epstein’s connections to two U.S. presidents ran through one bubbly British heiress: Ghislaine Maxwell."

Full article
I don't think Biden will hang onto his front runner status much longer. Liz Warren is loading up some solid ammo and she's going to use it on him.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 10:41 PM
Quote
"When people say that Democrats should unify, the part they leave out is most important: Around what?
Right now? This minute? The answer is crystal clear...Oust Trump.

That dynamic isn't going to change. Angry voters show up to vote.
That's our 2020 wild card, almost a "get out of jail free" card.

There are several issues worth unifying over beyond that though.

Immigration reform. A Democratic controlled government can do it with a few swipes of a pen.
Double the minimum wage. The house just passed a bill to do it.
Open Medicare up to people 55 and older with plans for further expansion.
Make higher education more affordable and abolish student debt.
Get rid of the Social Security cap entirely.

That's a few things.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/22/19 11:33 PM
I believe that was the lanyard's play in 2016 Gregor. What gives you hope it'll work in 2020?


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/23/19 02:04 AM
You asked...I gave you some examples. Those things were mostly considered radical ideas until Bernie made them mainstream in 2016. They're all on the Democratic to do list now.

Will they get them all done? Nope. But progress will be made and things like this give some of us reason to hope that the future may not be as grim as it looks.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/23/19 03:55 AM
You may be right. I'm not as sure about it.
Warren could lash together the same constituency as HRC did in 2016 but will it be enough?
There needs to be some damn righteous indignation and condemnation for what has happened to the average American overthe last 40years and I don't know that Warren is capable of doing that. Yeah, the lanyards will come out and vote but success has always been mobilize working class voters. PMC's have a hard time with that concept. I'm not sure she can do that yet.
My horse has been a proven bet but the 'Never Sanders' corporate wing is going to be an uphill battle. For all their rationalizations being about winning elections they have failed miserably but that doesn't seem to have weakened their grip on the party any.
The opinion of the democratic party leadership at my local level thinks anyone should be able to beat Trump as he's so offensive. I think they're being over confident as they were in 2016.
Someone once made the observation that the single greatest talent liberals possess is making failures sound like successes and keeping themselves from being turned out. I'm inclined to agree with that observation.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/23/19 06:17 PM
You think the upsurge in public opinion against Trump and the Republicans doesn't represent some righteous indignation and condemnation of what's happened to the average American over the last 40 years? Trump has brought it home, rich assh*les are running the show and they're trampling all over everybody else's rights.

Quote
Warren could lash together the same constituency as HRC did in 2016 but will it be enough?
Clinton won by 3 Million votes. Democratic voters weren't terribly excited about the race, the primary was ugly and it was a sure thing anyway. Trump didn't stand a chance against her, we saw it in the papers and in the polls.
Things are different this time around. Democratic voters are outraged.
A small percentage of Republican voters are finding it more and more difficult to support this administration...

"Get Out Of Jail Free"


It would be such a waste to squander this advantage on someone like Biden. Bernie or Liz are either one fine by me. I'm leaning towards Warren as a personal favorite. The press might see a Warren Vs Sanders race as a very lucrative redux of 2016...
The only plus about a Warren vrs Sanders race is that the loser's people are certainly going to go vote for the winner. There are almost no fans of one that would find the other one unacceptable.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/24/19 09:07 AM
There's a strong 'Never Sanders' crowd that I'd like to test your argument with PIA.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/24/19 09:30 AM
Looks like Pelosi has assured the owners that, should any progressive candidate win the nomination and go on to win the presidency, any progressive plans will be kneecapped. I think I said somewhere to watch out for the neoliberal head fake when she was made speaker. Sadly, that concern was proven out:

"Former congressional staffers and other critics said that by agreeing to suspend the debt ceiling until 2021, Pelosi gave Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) the ability to extract massive spending cuts and other concessions from a Democratic president in exchange for raising the debt limit."

Pelosi Blasted for Deal That Enables GOP to Thwart Progressive Plan

More of that Neoliberal 3 dimensional chess that always seems to benefit the ownership class and the far right....
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/24/19 04:56 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
There's a strong 'Never Sanders' crowd that I'd like to test your argument with PIA.

The most vociferous of that lot seem to be the ones who oppose him because he's not a Democrat and hence should not be the "Democratic" candidate. The same ones have a deepseated issue with the word "socialism". But, as a group, they are conditioned to vote in every election. They are the first to shout "Vote Blue No Matter Who!" when they want you to vote for their candidate and they will be the last to sit home when there is a chance to do their civic duty. They'll vote Sanders if The Fates should weave that thread.

Loyalist Democrats one and all. But they'll be voting en masse
in the primaries. They'll be deciding who gets the nom-noms.

Lefties wanna take over the country? They need to overwhelm this crowd in the primaries.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/24/19 05:19 PM
Quote
Neoliberal 3 dimensional chess that always seems to benefit the ownership class and the far right....

Not exactly. There's a Neoconservative 3D chess game going on over there too that always seems to benefit the ownership class while duping the far right into voting for them.

Bougies control both sides and just play them against each other.
I believe that enough people are weary of the childish antics of a bunch of spoiled rich brats.

Anyone who agrees is cordially invited to vote these infantile whelps completely out of power in November 2020.

No, you may not get exactly the change you hoped for...some elements of corruption and failures or moral rectitude transcend party boundaries but it is nevertheless clear that one party is currently tearing down any avenue of investment in our future to pay for the fortunes of Mammon today in a way which eerily resembles the saturnalias of Caligula.

If you love Caligula but you're not invited to a front row seat at the saturnalia, you're a fool who thinks some of the palace festivities will just rub off on you merely by virtue of the fact that you're aware of them, when in reality you should acknowledge that you're just another peon outside the palace walls, holding your ears shut so that you can't hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Even a junkyard rat has enough common sense to hop a train to the supermarket.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/25/19 11:19 PM
Vote Blue No Matter Who? Only if we eliminate Biden. No promises if it's Biden. Has anyone else noticed his resemblance to a snake?

A Slytherin? Strolling with the Gryffindors and Hufflepuffs?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/19 07:30 PM
"Traveling hundreds of miles across Iowa, passing cornfields and covered bridges, visiting quaint small town after quaint small town, listening to the stump speeches of Democrat after would-be Donald Trump-combating Democrat, only one thought comes to mind:

They’re gonna blow this again."

Matt Taibbi gives some good insider analysis of both the press and Democratic candidates from the road in Iowa. Nice audio read option of his article if you prefer to lissen at him.

The Iowa Circus
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/19 06:01 PM
Left to their own devices they probably would blow this again.
The anti-Trump sentiment will see them through.

Must be strange to be in Iowa during all this...Presidential candidates on soapboxes on every corner with cameramen trying to find an angle that looks like somebody is paying attention to them...

This is going to go on until February when the caucuses begin.
Money's gonna dry up for a bunch of them. Soon I hope.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/19 12:32 AM
Yeah, mebbe.
The Democratic party has been a perpetual disappointment machine for decades now for some. I also see Trump keeping his base wound up and motivated , whereas Democratic party leadership keeps punching left while desperately reading the political game box lid for rules violations over the last election.
I think it's gunna come down to who gets their base out more (has it ever been otherwise?). Meanwhile the Democratic party gets older, more insular and resentful of an energized, more youthful populist left that could bring some much needed energy to a weak and tired party.
The sad part is it could be so easy for them to win. That's my measure of how much they suck.
You may be right Gregor but but bad management has a way of hanging on these days.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/19 12:45 PM
Well this was a nice surprise to read about this weekend. Corrupt leadership getting challenged from below. More please....

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/19 03:48 PM
The end is nigh for Pelosi anyway. She's 79 and has promised to step down from her speakership after the elections. Her retirement soon after that is pretty likely. She's really not equipped to usher in a new age of social populism and that appears to be the way democratic voters are heading.

The end is nigh for a lot of old codgers up in DC.

She seems to be very competent for 79, but anyone that age should be thinking about retirement. They also should have spent the last 10 years training their replacement. And when the replacement surpasses your competence, it's time to go.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/19 10:22 PM
She's clung to her position thru corporate patronage so that's a kind of competency, I guess.
She really got played by Trump and helped fund his border wall and concentration camps. Unless that's a good thing for Libs. Times are strange and loyalties are no longer clear.
With her, I'm reminded of how the petite bourgeoisie of Germany threw in with the fascists when push came to shove and socialists were gaining ground. I have to wonder if the border wall and concentration camp funding while punching left at the core of recently elected lefties is the start of them going over.
Or perhaps she's really not that competent after?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/29/19 08:08 PM
You might as well paint every politician in the history of the world with that brush. Money always rules. Voters just decide who the money rules through.

Petite Bourgeoisie? Little bougies? The almost rich, newly rich, and fairly rich crowd? That's a greedy bunch and a lot of them are swimming in debt. Driving nice cars though...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/30/19 10:20 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
You might as well paint every politician in the history of the world with that brush. Money always rules. Voters just decide who the money rules through.

Petite Bourgeoisie? Little bougies? The almost rich, newly rich, and fairly rich crowd? That's a greedy bunch and a lot of them are swimming in debt. Driving nice cars though...

Most, but not all. Every once in a while you get a moment in history where there is a unique individual running that is out of the cynical, self serving norm.

Right now they're all on the left (of course) and one's even running for president.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Most, but not all. Every once in a while you get a moment in history where there is a unique individual running that is out of the cynical, self serving norm.

Right now they're all on the left (of course) and one's even running for president.

One and ONLY one? Nobody else can possibly be "close" to being acceptable?
Perfect is the enemy of the good, I guess.

Which one, by the way?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/19 01:10 AM
I didn't say acceptable, jeff. I was responding to Gregors 'money over everything' with all politicians remark. For myself, yes, only Sanders has a record on that as well as a break from the neoliberal framing of capitalism as the only way to order society.
Warren wouldn't be a disaster but she still believes in capitalism. She just wants a gentler driver of the soul harvester machine. IMO.

That 'perfect being the enemy of the good' is so much nonsense thrown out to dress up incrementalism and failure to voters as some kind of wisdom. All it does is help people rationalize lowering their expectations while the donor class has been looting out the back door.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I didn't say acceptable, jeff. I was responding to Gregors 'money over everything' with all politicians remark. For myself, yes, only Sanders has a record on that as well as a break from the neoliberal framing of capitalism as the only way to order society.
Warren wouldn't be a disaster but she still believes in capitalism. She just wants a gentler driver of the soul harvester machine. IMO.

That 'perfect being the enemy of the good' is so much nonsense thrown out to dress up incrementalism and failure to voters as some kind of wisdom. All it does is help people rationalize lowering their expectations while the donor class has been looting out the back door.

We're going to have to agree to disagree on this because I grew up in a regulated capitalist system that worked. We have ZERO experience with state socialism, plus 3/4 of a century of conditioning against the socialist brand.

With an election in less than a 1 1/4 years, I have my doubts about being able to reverse 75 years of conditioning, whereas the New Deal was effective. I don't see how countermanding capitalism wholesale is going to work by November 2020.

Agree to disagree.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/19 02:17 AM
Quote
Warren wouldn't be a disaster
Coming from you that's practically an endorsement. Much as I love ol' Bernie I've just never been able to convince myself that he wouldn't be a disaster.

But if you want Bernie, you and all your leftie buddies are gonna hafta get out and vote for him in the primaries. It's as easy as that.

I'm not a primary voter because I don't care which one they choose.

Warren is my personal favorite right now. But Warren is being marketed as the one to like right now so I don't know if it's my own idea or just the success of modern marketing science.

Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Warren wouldn't be a disaster
Coming from you that's practically an endorsement. Much as I love ol' Bernie I've just never been able to convince myself that he wouldn't be a disaster.

But if you want Bernie, you and all your leftie buddies are gonna hafta get out and vote for him in the primaries. It's as easy as that.

I'm not a primary voter because I don't care which one they choose.

Warren is my personal favorite right now. But Warren is being marketed as the one to like right now so I don't know if it's my own idea or just the success of modern marketing science.

I WANT the kind of a world (or should I say - COUNTRY) where Bernie and his professed "democratic socialism" tag garners about fifteen minutes of discussion and then is never brought up again, because his ideas resonate loud enough with an overwhelming majority of voters and lawmakers.

We're not there. We're not even remotely there.
In fact, we're so far from "there" that it is impossible to imagine HOW we GET there without a civil war and another economic meltdown at the same time.

Same thing with Mayor Pete.
I want the kind of a world where his orientation doesn't matter.
Is there a country on this planet where that is the case?
No, there isn't.
Worse, there are countries where his safety could not be guaranteed and THIS country might be the worst one in that regard DESPITE the progress we have made in that area.

Some progress happens slowly.
Ten years ago there were stubborn groups of people who said that they were buying up incandescent light bulbs
in protest of new technology.
It has taken ten years for that not to be an issue, and we're only talking about frikeen LIGHT BULBS.

Calling acknowledgment of the reality "incrementalism" is lazy thinking. I agree with Bernie's ideas but not his way of going about it...because his way of going about it won't ever fly in even a Dem majority Congress in both chambers much less the divided Congress we have right now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/19 03:23 AM
I haven't changed on Warren any. Think I mentioned before that she may have some of that high plains socialist populist revolt DNA that was such a force to be reckoned with for a time. But she's also from academia and does think capitalism can be tamed. That is why I think she won't go far enough with imagination and proposals.

No one will be getting anything done with the current far right and center right majorities in the house and senate. What sanders can do is reframe politics and break out of this endless reactionary con our two corporate parties have been underwriting. That, alone, is enough for my vote.

I see Sanders as a bridge to possibilities. He has pulled the argument to his chosen ground since 2016. No small feat and you have to ask how that's been possible.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/19 03:32 AM
I think it's been mentioned already Jeff, but you and I see politics very differently. Incrementalism is the definition of lowering expectations.

What exactly are you waiting for? Permission?
Is that how you think politics works?



Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think it's been mentioned already Jeff, but you and I see politics very differently. Incrementalism is the definition of lowering expectations.

What exactly are you waiting for? Permission?
Is that how you think politics works?

I already said how I think it works.
I can expand on that a little if you want.

I'd like to use the switch from analog TV (NTSC system) to digital (ATSC) as a loose analogy.

ATSC Standard A/53, which implemented the system developed by the Grand Alliance, was published in 1995; the standard was adopted by the Federal Communications Commission in the United States in 1996.

Television sets generally cost anywhere from $149 to $2500 in the years prior to 2009, which is the year we finally left the old 1930's NTSC analog TV technology behind for keeps.
Maximum size for a CRT TV screen back then was somewhere around 40 inches.

It took almost five years for the last CRT (square standard definition glass 4:3 picture tube) TV sets manufactured to finally start hitting the dumpsters, and there are still a few stubbornly hanging on.
There's still a few rotary dial telephones and VHS decks sitting around and still being used, even today.
And vinyl and even reel to reel are making a comeback.
In the case of vinyl, a large enough comeback that a brand new record pressing plant went online here in L.A. a year and a half ago, and a couple of others elsewhere in the USA and abroad.

The switchover from analog SDTV to digital HDTV also took several years, with stations still broadcasting their old analog signal side by side next to their new digital HD signal.

On June 11, 2009, one day before the analog shutoff, the National Association of Broadcasters reported that 1.75 million Americans were still not ready. 971 TV stations made the final switch to digital on June 12.
The final off-the-air moment caused stations to swamped with thousands of angry calls from people who STILL did not know that analog TV was going bye-bye.

1996 to 2009, and we're talking about television sets!

Should I try using electric cars as an analogy instead?


By the way I think that both Sanders and Warren did very well last night.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/19 10:27 PM
Quote
What sanders can do is reframe politics and break out of this endless reactionary con our two corporate parties have been underwriting. That, alone, is enough for my vote.

Yes, Sanders could do that and I'd surely vote for him in the General.

I'm gonna keep harping on this...the very disorganized 'far left' in this country needs to organize and get out the vote. Swarm the f*cking voting booths like they were a Trump rally. Every nook and cranny of this nation has extreme leftists who will be sitting on their hands and ignoring the primaries. If they(and you) want Bernie to be President then they gotta get him nominated.

A Sanders presidency would be an absolute hoot! It could easily usher in the Global Utopian Social Democracy that I dream of!

But so could Warren. Democratic Socialism is all about taming capitalism. Just a few interesting tweaks in taxation that would go unnoticed by most Americans could right a lot of wrongs.
Originally Posted by Greger
A Sanders presidency would be an absolute hoot! It could easily usher in the Global Utopian Social Democracy that I dream of!

But so could Warren. Democratic Socialism is all about taming capitalism. Just a few interesting tweaks in taxation that would go unnoticed by most Americans could right a lot of wrongs.

At the very least, if we can wrest Senate control away from the R's and keep the House, a Sanders presidency would at least get us moving in the right direction, across the center-right, across the center and at least somewhat closer to center-left.
That's the very least it might be able to accomplish.
With a bit of effort, and some unity, it might accomplish much more.
But the same can also be said for a Warren presidency, under similar conditions.

But it all depends on whether we can spoil Mitch McConnell's wet dreams and keep the House.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/01/19 01:52 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
[quote]

I'm gonna keep harping on this...the very disorganized 'far left' in this country needs to organize and get out the vote. Swarm the f*cking voting booths like they were a Trump rally. Every nook and cranny of this nation has extreme leftists who will be sitting on their hands and ignoring the primaries. If they(and you) want Bernie to be President then they gotta get him nominated.

If ever there was a time for the phrase 'No sh!t Sherlock!' this would be it.
Now you have to look at the impediments to having that nomination happen. The first would be the Democratic party. Second would be the corporations that own media and suppress and distort leftists proposals. Third would be the delegates (sorta bandaided that in the DNC reconciliation negotions after 2016) and fourth would be a funding apparatus to go around the DNC. (fixed that one with alternative funding structures for progressives) all before the 2020 nomination. Not bad for a 'disorganized' left.
A heavy lift to say the least but the left has far more obstacles than the center right and far right parties have when it comes to getting on ballots and having their votes counted. They're fighting both right wing parties.
Most of what the left proposes today was mainstream back in the today. Referring to it as far left and serves as an admission on how far to the right we have come with our two party monopolies.
A final observation. The yutes and progressives came out for Obama with his phoney hope and change rhetoric in 2008. No so much for Clinton's 'It's all good'. I believe it could be repeated with Sanders authentic populism. Maybe Warren. Not convinced with the others.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/01/19 02:17 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think it's been mentioned already Jeff, but you and I see politics very differently. Incrementalism is the definition of lowering expectations.

What exactly are you waiting for? Permission?
Is that how you think politics works?

I already said how I think it works.
I can expand on that a little if you want.

I'd like to use the switch from analog TV (NTSC system) to digital (ATSC) as a loose analogy.

ATSC Standard A/53, which implemented the system developed by the Grand Alliance, was published in 1995; the standard was adopted by the Federal Communications Commission in the United States in 1996.

Television sets generally cost anywhere from $149 to $2500 in the years prior to 2009, which is the year we finally left the old 1930's NTSC analog TV technology behind for keeps.
Maximum size for a CRT TV screen back then was somewhere around 40 inches.

It took almost five years for the last CRT (square standard definition glass 4:3 picture tube) TV sets manufactured to finally start hitting the dumpsters, and there are still a few stubbornly hanging on.
There's still a few rotary dial telephones and VHS decks sitting around and still being used, even today.
And vinyl and even reel to reel are making a comeback.
In the case of vinyl, a large enough comeback that a brand new record pressing plant went online here in L.A. a year and a half ago, and a couple of others elsewhere in the USA and abroad.

The switchover from analog SDTV to digital HDTV also took several years, with stations still broadcasting their old analog signal side by side next to their new digital HD signal.

On June 11, 2009, one day before the analog shutoff, the National Association of Broadcasters reported that 1.75 million Americans were still not ready. 971 TV stations made the final switch to digital on June 12.
The final off-the-air moment caused stations to swamped with thousands of angry calls from people who STILL did not know that analog TV was going bye-bye.

1996 to 2009, and we're talking about television sets!

Should I try using electric cars as an analogy instead?

No. I'm not good with analogies.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/01/19 03:47 PM
Me neither. I have no idea what he was going on about.

Incrementalism is like trickle down. Always promised but never delivered.

We are witnessing the incremental legalization of cannabis products. Not pretty is it?

Let's look at our incremental improvements on civil rights and race issues? Kind of embarrassing to think about, eh?

How about those incremental boosts to the minimum wage?

Ten years ago there was a stab at making healthcare "more affordable" Not universally available, just "more affordable".

That's incrementalism at work. See if you can find other examples...:)
Originally Posted by Greger
Me neither. I have no idea what he was going on about.

Incrementalism is like trickle down. Always promised but never delivered.

We are witnessing the incremental legalization of cannabis products. Not pretty is it?

Let's look at our incremental improvements on civil rights and race issues? Kind of embarrassing to think about, eh?

How about those incremental boosts to the minimum wage?

Ten years ago there was a stab at making healthcare "more affordable" Not universally available, just "more affordable".

That's incrementalism at work. See if you can find other examples...:)

Well, don't try making it appear that I am an advocate for it when I am simply pointing out the same issue you guys are.
You're right, that is what we're up against. All of it.

Get your guns, gather an army and we'll have a bloody revolution.
That's what it will take to wipe out that well funded blockade.
There has been more money spent to keep that sort of constipated bloat in place than the GDP of several countries combined.

So the only move beyond simple ideological peristalsis is revolution, the only kind that ever actually unseats that sort of entrenched oligarchy.

Politics is based on comfort, or perceived levels of comfort.
Make the majority uncomfortable enough, quickly enough and they will make a move for significant change.

But it's not a controlled reaction, like some sort of scientific experiment. It can go awry, vastly so.

Interesting: Republican strategists are starting to think the Trump policy of deriding climate change may drive away young Republicans from the Party.

Climate Could Be an Electoral Time Bomb

Quote
The polling bears out Mr. Heye’s prediction of a backlash. Nearly 60 percent of Republicans between the ages of 23 and 38 say that climate change is having an effect on the United States, and 36 percent believe humans are the cause. That’s about double the numbers of Republicans over age 52.

But younger generations are also now outvoting their elders. According to a Pew Research Center analysis, voters under the age of 53 cast 62.5 million votes in the 2018 midterm elections. Those 53 and older, by contrast, were responsible for 60.1 million votes.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 04:00 PM
I think that both the anti-climate change and virulent racism are driving away young Republicans. Old Republicans cling to whatever flotsam will keep them afloat, but their flotsam is getting waterlogged.

I believe that one election soon, perhaps 2020, will break the dam and wash the ROG (Republican Old Guard) and their flotsam and jetsam away. The "Moscow Mitch" moniker is cutting deep (not sure how deep - he is from Kentucky), and Amy McGrath, despite her stumbles, is going to prove a formidable opponent. The Democrats Have A Candidate In Kentucky. But Can She Beat Mitch McConnell? (FiveThiryEight). Trump is extremely unpopular and has coarsened the GOP considerably - and it was pretty coarse to begin with. So, this should be a "Democratic year." But... there are baked-in obstacles (gerrymandering, demographics and voter suppression) that will keep the GOP in the game for at least a decade and will threaten the next election nearly as much as Putin.

Greger put it well - we need a blue tsunami to overwhelm those obstacles, but it still won't be complete. We're in desperate times, and I think that even a rout of the Republicans will not be enough to get us back on track. Obama was two-steps forward, but Trump was 5 steps back. We'll have to do more, faster to even get where we were 3 years ago.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 05:38 PM
Couldn't disagree more.

Without class politics we will continue to have reactionary politics. Class politics offers the most accurate description of what has been impacting the majority of americans over the last forty years or so. Democrats continue to deny any class critique overall as a party. They only do social justice politics so as not to anger the hand that feeds them.

Sanders has at least changed the conversation from the vague promises of progress from Obama to one of class consciousness. For me, that's the underlying divide in the Democratic party. A politics of class vs. a politics of phoney meritocracy.

Obama was not three steps forward for many. His guy, Geitner, is running loan shark scams in poor communities now.

Nuff said.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Obama was not three steps forward for many. His guy, Geitner, is running loan shark scams in poor communities now.

Was he running loan shark scams when he worked for Obama, too?
If not, what's his present gig got to do with Obama?

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 06:23 PM
Have you heard the "Vote Blue no matter who" mantra lately? I like the derivation: "Vote Blue no matter who, or F*** you."
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 06:39 PM
Quote
We'll have to do more, faster to even get where we were 3 years ago.
It's not gonna be long now before the whole world goes into war mode against climate change. Ultimately, if we're successful, maybe only a billion or so will die. It's going to have to be a global effort.

The rumblings have begun. There are exciting times ahead.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 06:41 PM
Quote
"Vote Blue no matter who, or F*** you."

Unless it's Biden. F*** Biden.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 07:08 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
It's not gonna be long now before the whole world goes into war mode against climate change. Ultimately, if we're successful, maybe only a billion or so will die. It's going to have to be a global effort.
The Black Wave, she's a comin'!

Soil carbon to save the day
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 07:37 PM
EVEN if it's Biden.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 08:45 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
EVEN if it's Biden.

I am absolutely not convinced that electing Biden would be better than re-electing Trump.

In the short term sure. He'll kick some cans down the road, pass out bandaids and waste four years. Like the Obama years they'll be over soon and we'll have nothing to show for it. Republicans will roar back in 2024.

And we'll be set back again because we were scared to elect a progressive in these times that require bold action by government.

Another Trump term will crash the economy, likely see some shooting wars with high casualties and bring the entire global consortium to the ground. In essence they will burn this motherf**ker to the ground for us so we can re-build it as we see fit.
Originally Posted by Greger
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
EVEN if it's Biden.

I am absolutely not convinced that electing Biden would be better than re-electing Trump.

In the short term sure. He'll kick some cans down the road, pass out bandaids and waste four years. Like the Obama years they'll be over soon and we'll have nothing to show for it. Republicans will roar back in 2024.

And we'll be set back again because we were scared to elect a progressive in these times that require bold action by government.

Another Trump term will crash the economy, likely see some shooting wars with high casualties and bring the entire global consortium to the ground. In essence they will burn this motherf**ker to the ground for us so we can re-build it as we see fit.

Except that I think you just might be mistaken as to who will be "doing all that fixin".
You seem to think it's going to be decent liberals, lefties and other more moderate rational Americans working together.

It might not even be us at all. If this whole thing comes crashing down, rest assured, the vacuum WILL be FILLED immediately.

I hope you can speak fluent Chinese, my friend.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 11:31 PM
Quote
Except that I think you just might be mistaken as to who will be "doing all that fixin".

And you think Joe Biden is the one who can pull all this back together?

My goal is not necessarily to have the United States remain the world's only superpower. I'm kind of over that. My aim is a Global Utopian Social Democracy. Joe Biden will keep us locked into this same dance that is destroying us.

Nope. NEVER Biden.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/19 11:52 PM
But don't yall worry your pretty little heads about my vote. I live in a blood red district. My vote never counts for much.

Biden looks like a safe bet...But all I see is trouble in that future.

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 12:03 AM
Biden's not my first choice (or second), but if he's the nominee, I'm gonna wield work my but[t] off for him. I just want a competent number two.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 12:22 AM
Quote
The Black Wave, she's a comin'!

Indeed. New industries and enormous profits to be made. I've even heard of a scheme to set up snowmaking equipment in Antarctica to begin refreezing the oceans...The greatest minds in the world are already working on this and when governments are ready to listen they will have the solutions.

And I don't think it's going to be very many more years before everyone on the planet realizes we are doomed to extinction in just a few generations if we don't change our ways.

Denial...the first stage, Anger the second. I think we're at the Bargaining stage right now but Acceptance is just around the corner.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 12:33 AM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Biden's not my first choice (or second), but if he's the nominee, I'm gonna wield my but off for him. I just want a competent number two.
I'm pretty sure you could count on Biden to screw that up. He's running against the leftist wave and will choose someone as obscure and useless as himself.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 12:42 AM
I can only even remain sane if I convince myself that Joe Biden will not be the candidate. I wouldn't join the Democratic Party to vote for Bernie in 2016 but I may join to vote against Biden. Florida primaries are closed.
Originally Posted by Greger
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Biden's not my first choice (or second), but if he's the nominee, I'm gonna wield my but off for him. I just want a competent number two.
I'm pretty sure you could count on Biden to screw that up. He's running against the leftist wave and will choose someone as obscure and useless as himself.

We're supposed to be the smart ones who know that having a #2 who is somewhat different than yourself is the key to avoiding winding up knee deep in "Eau de Numéro Deux".
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 03:20 AM
Quote
We're supposed to be the smart ones
If Obama was so smart why'd he choose this dolt as his VP?
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
We're supposed to be the smart ones
If Obama was so smart why'd he choose this dolt as his VP?

Biden was a little bit more Blue Dog than he was, not to mention "white".

I didn't mean to sound like we think we're Einsteins, but at least a little bit smarter than they are.
McCain selected Palin, FFS... ROTFMOL
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 10:14 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Was he running loan shark scams when he worked for Obama, too?
If not, what's his present gig got to do with Obama?

"The bailout helped the banks but did little or nothing for the tens of millions of Americans who lost billions of dollars in home equity and savings, and the millions more who lost their jobs. The toll was greatest on the poor and the middle class, who still haven’t recovered their losses, even though Wall Street has fully recovered (and then some). Nor have reforms been enacted that will help the middle class and the poor the next time Wall Street implodes."

From Occupy

Not one of these white collar criminals were charged. That was an Obama administration decision.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/19 10:17 AM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Have you heard the "Vote Blue no matter who" mantra lately? I like the derivation: "Vote Blue no matter who, or F*** you."

How about 'Blue no matter who? F### You!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/19 12:21 AM
Well allright.

I didn't want to be to predictable but it looks like no one else is going to post it up but wadda bout them numbers on the big board?

"Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has a huge lead over other Democratic presidential candidates in the number of individual donors they have each accumulated so far. This is the first time since the primary race began in earnest that we can estimate how many individual donors each candidate has attracted — a key indicator of how much they are catching on with voters.

Mr. Sanders is relying heavily on small donors to power his campaign, and he entered the 2020 race with a huge network of online donors who supported his 2016 presidential bid. The map above shows the breadth of Mr. Sanders’s roster of donors across the United States. "

NYT 2020 Campaign Contribution Map

Does the game board say anything about electability and experience like we heard so much of in 2016? Would this qualify? No?, still the primary?

We'll see. At least the two that skew the closest are taking the top slots.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Well allright.

I didn't want to be to predictable but it looks like no one else is going to post it up but wadda bout them numbers on the big board?

"Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has a huge lead over other Democratic presidential candidates in the number of individual donors they have each accumulated so far. This is the first time since the primary race began in earnest that we can estimate how many individual donors each candidate has attracted — a key indicator of how much they are catching on with voters.

Mr. Sanders is relying heavily on small donors to power his campaign, and he entered the 2020 race with a huge network of online donors who supported his 2016 presidential bid. The map above shows the breadth of Mr. Sanders’s roster of donors across the United States. "

NYT 2020 Campaign Contribution Map

Does the game board say anything about electability and experience like we heard so much of in 2016? Would this qualify? No?, still the primary?

We'll see. At least the two that skew the closest are taking the top slots.

I will be very happy if Bernie is the candidate.
I'm one of those donors.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/19 03:21 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Not one of these white collar criminals were charged. That was an Obama administration decision.
The problem was, and remains, that what they did was not "criminal" - though it should have been.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/19 03:24 AM
There's something wrong with the map. Warren is second in number of contributors but doesn't appear on the map? Methinks that there is a skew afoot.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/19 01:06 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
The problem was, and remains, that what they did was not "criminal" - though it should have been.

So whats this guy, William Black, on about?

How to rob a bank from the inside.

I especially like how he breaks down the regulatory oversight in charge of making referrals to the FBI and compares the crimes that were prosecuted in the wake of the S&L scandals of the 80's to the banking crimes culminating in 2008.
Was is Geithner that was quoted as saying they 'foamed the runway' for these banks? Wonder what he's doing today?

Oh..right...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/19 05:15 PM
A lot of mistakes were made in the wake of the Great Recession.
I expect them to be repeated in the upcoming downturn unless Warren or Sanders are elected.
If we're lucky, Trump will force the crash before the elections and it will be on his shoulders entirely in November.

China has just turned the trade war into a currency war as well.



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/07/19 12:17 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
A lot of mistakes were made in the wake of the Great Recession.
I expect them to be repeated in the upcoming downturn unless Warren or Sanders are elected.
If we're lucky, Trump will force the crash before the elections and it will be on his shoulders entirely in November.

China has just turned the trade war into a currency war as well.

For some, it was not a mistake but a necessary action in order to preserve life in Amerika as we know it. Our very survival as Marketland depended on pushing mountains of money to the white collared criminals. That's how I remember the administration selling it to the public. Putting it down as a 'mistake' is far more generous than I can give it.

I would call it complicity in crime.

If that isn't enough to conclude that Liberalism is a dead end and a proven fraud I don't know what would be.

Biblical wealth inequality during the reign of the 'new democrats'. Just sayin.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/07/19 12:21 PM
I take that back. We have surpassed biblical wealth inequality during the reign of the 'new democrats' party stewardship.

At least they had institutionalized debt forgiveness in biblical times.

What we have is disciplining the working class with punishment, heaven on earth for the rich now.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 03:44 AM
Quote
I would call it complicity in crime.
Of course it was. Whenever in the history of whatever has it ever worked otherwise?

The plight of the workingman is not a new plight. Business is always in cahoots with the government.
And yet government is the only force strong enough to keep capitalism in check. Forgive me if I don't believe in the power of labor unions to do it, given recent history. FDR's government programs did a lot more than the unions ever did since we got rid of child labor and started working 5 days a week. If not for government regulation, we would all be slaves with big debt accounts at the company store and indenture until retirement (AKA euthanasia) as soon as our cost/benefit ratio reached 1.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 12:34 PM
I guess it's true PIA. That must be why it's such a middle class paradise in the U.S. today. Government has been so awesome at keeping capitalism in check!

As a matter of fact, why read history? Didn't the lanyard people declare it dead a few years ago as we reached a state of grace and perfection and all that would have to be done is simply manage it into the flat earth future?


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 03:45 PM
I don't think he said government was doing a good job of it, just that only government can control it.

labor unions are bullsh*t. Why should workers have to collectively beg for a living wage? For Insurance? For training and education? Shouldn't those things be mandated by a government of, by, and for "the people"?

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 05:28 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
I don't think he said government was doing a good job of it, just that only government can control it.

labor unions are bullsh*t. Why should workers have to collectively beg for a living wage? For Insurance? For training and education? Shouldn't those things be mandated by a government of, by, and for "the people"?

Are you doing irony Gregor?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 05:59 PM
In case anyone missed it this week:

No, they don't do a very good job, especially when Republicans are running things. They actively sabotage everything the government tries to do, regulation-wise. When Democrats are in power, they try to fix the worst excesses of capitalism. It could be much, much worse. If you don't understand that, you have no connection to reality.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 07:57 PM
Dems foamed the runway for white collared banking crimnals.....
Held no one to account for fraud..
Helped shift our economy from industrial capitalism to a financial capitalism...
Helped pass stricter bankruptcy measures...
Passed the worlds most expensive health insurance bill, leaving millions uninsured, called it 'progress' and 'better'....

Your two party binary arguments are just so much smoke getting blown up peoples backside to distract from real issues. Dems have proven to suck as much and in some cases more than their further to the right counterparts.

but, yeah, I'm disconnected from reality...
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Dems foamed the runway for white collared banking crimnals.....
Held no one to account for fraud..
Helped shift our economy from industrial capitalism to a financial capitalism...
Helped pass stricter bankruptcy measures...
Passed the worlds most expensive health insurance bill, leaving millions uninsured, called it 'progress' and 'better'....

Your two party binary arguments are just so much smoke getting blown up peoples backside to distract from real issues. Dems have proven to suck as much and in some cases more than their further to the right counterparts.

but, yeah, I'm disconnected from reality...

Well gosh when you put it that way, seeing all the crimes they've committed, I guess we'd better keep Trump and the Repubs in power forever.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 08:04 PM
Helped send millions to jail for minor drug offenses...
Took food away from poor kids...
Backed voucher schools and undermined teachers unions (their own base, HA!)...
Helped kill a lot of Afghans, Iraqi's and Libyans...
Sold arms to the Saudi's...
Restarted the nuclear arms race...
Gave Republicans freedom to move even further right...

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/19 08:08 PM
Stop pretending Democrats have your interests (unless any of these items are in your interest).
It's like hyperventilating on Russia kept any serious critique from ever happenning on why Democrats lost in 2016. Same Bipolar B.S.

One party sucking does not mean the other party doesn't also suck. It's just a difference in style.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Stop pretending Democrats have your interests (unless any of these items are in your interest).
It's like hyperventilating on Russia kept any serious critique from ever happenning on why Democrats lost in 2016. Same Bipolar B.S.

One party sucking does not mean the other party doesn't also suck. It's just a difference in style.

Like I said, if they're really that bad, ain't no way in Hell we should ever allow them to win another election ever again.
Here's to one party Republican rule forever, because "Democrats suck, too!" and we can't allow that.

I guess it's kind of like:
If you aren't Antifa you must be PRO-FA!

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 01:21 AM
The difference is that we might be able to change the Democratic Party.
Failing that...after the Republican Party implodes then the Democrats can become the business party and the Democratic Socialists will become the people's party.
Originally Posted by Greger
The difference is that we might be able to change the Democratic Party.
Failing that...after the Republican Party implodes then the Democrats can become the business party and the Democratic Socialists will become the people's party.

If the Republican Party implodes then the pressure on both the DemSoc AND the Democratic Party will be enormous, and they will both have to change dramatically, and I don't mean "moving to the right" because we know that the Republican Party will not actually "implode".

It will just cease to be relevant for a long time.

You appear to be talking about the emergence of a viable third party.
Go for it. I'll probably join it, but I don't see the groundwork being done yet so I hope it's not just another version of the US Greens, who hibernate for 3.5 years, then run Jill Stein for POTUS, then go back into hibernation again, lather, rinse, repeat.

At least the DemSoc's have AOC and the Squad but that isn't enough.
But it is a start.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 03:30 AM
Democrats already are the business party.
They have been for some time.

They are beyond reforming.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 03:38 AM
You keep proposing these odd choices.
How's this then. Would you prefer to be raped by a friend or a stranger, Jeff?

Many prefer to stay home and not have to make that choice any longer. That's been getting the most votes.

90,000 people that voted in the last presidential election in Michigan left the top line empty.

Hillary lost the state by 10,000 votes.

But lets talk of Russian interference........

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 03:46 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
In case anyone missed it this week:


Over 5.6 million views in two days.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
You keep proposing these odd choices.
How's this then. Would you prefer to be raped by a friend or a stranger, Jeff?

Many prefer to stay home and not have to make that choice any longer. That's been getting the most votes.

90,000 people that voted in the last presidential election in Michigan left the top line empty.

Hillary lost the state by 10,000 votes.

But lets talk of Russian interference........

Are you asking me to repeat Post #313289 or are you insisting that I am a Hillary supporter?
Quote
90,000 people that voted in the last presidential election in Michigan left the top line empty.

Hillary lost the state by 10,000 votes.

The result of Republicans' smear campaign over the last 30 years. None of those folks left the line blank because Hillary was too Republican. They left it blank because they didn't want to vote for Crooked Hillary, courtesy of Trump and his fellow Republicans and their Russian allies. I witnessed that personally during the runup to the election: The internet forums were absolutely clogged with "crooked Hillary" posts, many obviously Russian.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 04:31 AM
Quote
are you insisting that I am a Hillary supporter?
If you're looking for a Hillary supporter, look no further cause I'm your guy! We'd be walkin' in high cotton if she'da won!
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
are you insisting that I am a Hillary supporter?
If you're looking for a Hillary supporter, look no further cause I'm your guy! We'd be walkin' in high cotton if she'da won!

Well, I was a Bernie guy and so was Karen but you'd never know it to hear some folks speak. Thank God they don't in point of fact speak for me.

I pulled the H lever because I was terrified at the prospect of the Orange Menace.
Apparently I shall never be forgiven for doing so.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 04:43 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
are you insisting that I am a Hillary supporter?
If you're looking for a Hillary supporter, look no further cause I'm your guy! We'd be walkin' in high cotton if she'da won!
I never was. I've always said her unlikability factor was what did her in and gave us Trump.

What did it for me was the Kosovo Airport lie.

Yes Hillary Clinton was the most experienced and qualified candidate to be POTUS in 2016 - clearly that didn't matter to a lot us. Hmm

I knew Trump would be bad, but I never thought THIS bad. At least we don't have to hear the Conservative perpetual daily whining about how bad Hillary is at being POTUS.

America will recover when Trump is indicted and tried for his crimes. smile
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 11:55 AM
No. I'm not.
What I'm saying is when you get people saying F#ck it! and leave the top line blank in larger numbers than what the candidate lost by in what was a formally reliable blue state, as many other reliably blue states were and you lost as well, you might have a problem? You might want to reflect on why?

Or not.

Russia didn't de-industrialize the upper midwest. Saying it was a long game by the Russians is so much Lib deflection. Libs are good at passing the buck. They've had decades of practice.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 05:09 PM
Despite all your meandering hate for Clinton and the Democrats, despite your claim that they lost because Clinton wasn't "likeable" enough. I will point out again that she won by 3 million votes.

And I will point out that Bernie is not particularly "likeable".

And if Bernie should happen to be on the ticket there are a lot of voters who would leave the top line blank because they won't vote for a Socialist. Just the facts.

There was nothing "flawed" about Clinton. She was a great candidate and would have been a great president. She's not a great orator, she's not a great campaigner, but she's friendly, affable and fun to be around. She carry's hot sauce in her purse in case it's not available. She enjoys a drink or three and lively conversation. She knows the names of every world leader and has met with most of them. She understands global politics and global trade.

This was an opportunity lost for leftist America on the same order as Al Gore's loss to Bush.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 05:25 PM
So were back to 'she'd be great to have a beer with'? More 'electability'?

O.K. That's a rational and a strategy I guess. Kinda got crushed by the results though.

I don't hate the Clintons any more than I hate any other class enemy and white collared criminals.

Meandering hate? Gimme a break. It's been meandering excuses over 2016 as far as I've read. No real early morning, clear eyed critique. Just a lot of huffing and puffing and 'yeah, but russia, racism, etc....'

Couldn't do $15.00/hr.
Took more than a quarter million for a Goldman boardroom speech.
Would have followed the same neoliberal policies that has been pursued by her type for decades now.

Those are valid criticisms.

You come back with "She carry's hot sauce in her purse.."

Uhhhh, O.K....

Can't argue with that.

You got me!



Originally Posted by chunkstyle
No. I'm not.
What I'm saying is when you get people saying F#ck it! and leave the top line blank in larger numbers than what the candidate lost by in what was a formally reliable blue state, as many other reliably blue states were and you lost as well, you might have a problem? You might want to reflect on why?

Or not.

Russia didn't de-industrialize the upper midwest. Saying it was a long game by the Russians is so much Lib deflection. Libs are good at passing the buck. They've had decades of practice.

What deindustrialized the US? It damn sure wasn't a couple of politicians because lawmakers cannot legislate whether or not a greedy multinational corporation decides to manufacture here or not.
True, they can reward them for doing so, and even erect tax penalties for not doing so.

But in the end, trade agreements get decided by both Republicans and Democrats and the fact is, Republicans were better at being "on message" than the Democrats were.
And there is no binary political answer as to why greed is more powerful. It just is, to the point where it transcends politics.
Had Democrats opposed trade agreements with every fiber of their being, another "trade agreement" with an exploding cigar factor baked in would have gotten the job done anyway.

I do not argue that Democrats stayed loyal to the blue collar community. They didn't. They tossed the blue collar community overboard in favor of Wall Street elites and wealthy elites.
They did embrace neoliberalism.
And to a certain extent, evidenced by Joe Biden, they still do.

The Tea Party moved a lot of traditional Republicans into the unemployment line. I support whatever faction in my party can manage to push neoliberal Democrats into the same line. But in order for that to happen, my vote is needed. There is where we differ.

What deindustrialized the US? An idea did it, an idea first voiced in The Powell Memo, which was authored by a Nixon pick for the SCOTUS. Lewis Powell, a tobacco industry attorney and corporate free speech champion, authored "Attack on the American Free Enterprise System", an anti New Deal essay which put corporate America on notice that it had better begin fighting back against labor unions, consumer protection, even higher education itself.

It is a fool's errand to minimize the effect of The Powell Memo.
It provided fertile ground for an explosion of right wing think tanks. It was buttressed in numerous SCOTUS decisions like First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti and it energized the lobbyist industry at a level several orders of magnitude greater than The Declaration of Independence itself.
Indeed, The Powell Memo was a kind of "declaration of war" against the entire Left and the Left had nothing to counter it.

Blaming the Democratic Party for this sea change is like blaming Ford Motor Co exclusively for air pollution.

Moving the goalposts to suggest that Democrats blame Russia for our deindustrialization is a wild blunder which no one, even you, cannot back up. If there is a single Democratic politician suggesting such a thing, I'd like to see you drag them to the peanut gallery.

And like I said repeatedly, you offer no alternative except to stick with another four years of Trump.
No sale, buddy.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 06:18 PM
I agree with much of what you say here Jeff. The 70's do seem to be a critical decade and the Powell memo was a key factor.
The reactionary politics started much earlier as a response to FDR's new deal but yeah. That Powell memo.

I would disagree with you, or defend my positions by saying the Democratic party didn't, as a whole, push this agenda but they eventually joined it and ran with it when it became lucrative to do so. Clinton really carried the water for much of their agenda in the eighties. As did many other democrats. That faction is firmly in control of the party today. That structure will accept no blame for the losses in 2016 or explain progressive victories in places they insist couldn't be won and wrote off.


It's called the Russia investigation. It was in the news and has been a soap opera drama for the last 3 years. It was being led by a guy named Mueller.I didn't move any goal posts. In fact, I only commented on what a convenient distraction it has been. I could care less about it other than being used as a distraction by the party and has inhibited any critique over party decision making, campaign policies or effectiveness.


I have commented more than once about alternatives:

Support separate progressive campaign funding structures for progressive candidates viability. The DNC is at war with progressives.
Support progressive candidates. Don't vote for neoliberal ones foisted on your districts.
Learn how this lousy establishment maintains power and attack it there.
Actually, literally help progressive campaigns. Canvas, phone bank, etc..
Practice some solidarity and start looking at the problem thru class struggle instead of a corporate human resource problem.

Why is it my job to sell you? Why do you reduce a critique to being about a binary choice all the time?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I agree with much of what you say here Jeff. The 70's do seem to be a critical decade and the Powell memo was a key factor.
The reactionary politics started much earlier as a response to FDR's new deal but yeah. That Powell memo.

I would disagree with you, or defend my positions by saying the Democratic party didn't, as a whole, push this agenda but they eventually joined it and ran with it when it became lucrative to do so. Clinton really carried the water for much of their agenda in the eighties. As did many other democrats. That faction is firmly in control of the party today. That structure will accept no blame for the losses in 2016 or explain progressive victories in places they insist couldn't be won and wrote off.


It's called the Russia investigation. It was in the news and has been a soap opera drama for the last 3 years. It was being led by a guy named Mueller.I didn't move any goal posts. In fact, I only commented on what a convenient distraction it has been. I could care less about it other than being used as a distraction by the party and has inhibited any critique over party decision making, campaign policies or effectiveness.


I have commented more than once about alternatives:

Support separate progressive campaign funding structures for progressive candidates viability. The DNC is at war with progressives.
Support progressive candidates. Don't vote for neoliberal ones foisted on your districts.
Learn how this lousy establishment maintains power and attack it there.
Actually, literally help progressive campaigns. Canvas, phone bank, etc..
Practice some solidarity and start looking at the problem thru class struggle instead of a corporate human resource problem.

Why is it my job to sell you? Why do you reduce a critique to being about a binary choice all the time?

Quote
Why is it my job to sell you? Why do you reduce a critique to being about a binary choice all the time?

Scroll back and look at how many times you've condemned me, in BINARY fashion, for making the decision to, at the very least, vote against Trump by voting for a Democrat.
You sound like "If you're not Antifa, you must be PRO-FA!"

It's not your job to sell me, that is why I said "NO SALE" to your recommendation to leave the POTUS line blank.

Not only is it not your job, what you're selling is a vote for Trump even if you don't see it that way.
I can't afford it.

And if you look at my posting history, which I know you won't, you'll see that I've made pretty much the exact same recommendations you have in Paragraph Four of your response, your "comment about alternatives".
I've been recommending the same thing for better than five years.

I might have even been the first one on the Rant to recommend that progressives do to the Democratic Party what the Tea Party did to the GOP, only the SMART version.

I might have also been the first OR ONE OF the first to point out that FreedomWorks had made Alinsky required reading, and one of the first to point out the Alinsky is great for leading a revolution but not so great at actually leading once the revolution is won, which is why Republicans can't lead anymore. They used Alinsky to mobilize but now that they're at the table, they're still trying to kill everyone in range.
The reason the Left put the Alinsky book down is because they had WON, and now they had to lead.
But we became complacent, and the Right took us on the way the Japanese took on US carmakers.

I'm tired of defending myself for crimes I never committed.
You are certainly free to continue labeling me but I'll be ignoring your broadsides from now on.
I'm much too interested in trying to figure out how we can beat Trump, so that we can at least stop the hemorrhaging.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 08:07 PM
"Not only is it not your job, what you're selling is a vote for Trump even if you don't see it that way.
I can't afford it."

I'm not selling you on anything. Vote for anyone you want, I could care less. I'm just bringing up points about why the power within the Democratic party sucks and how it has lead to a condition like electing Trump (IMO, always).

Class resentments are real and legitimate but seems to confound that same Democratic power structure whereas it gets harnessed by Republicans. That's my opinion based on my observations and experiences. You may have a different take. That's fine and I don't mind hearing about it.

You'll have to pardon me if I push back on what I consider fallacy. Such as Democrats being 'left', Democrats support Labor, etc. (Not saying this is what you believe, just what has become a popular political narrative).

I think the Establishment will try to wind a rebound victory off Trump, like they hoped for in 2016. If they do I can't see any upside to another Neoliberal administration. I can only see downsides. I don't make over 200k/year and live in the suburbs. I don't have residuals or am able to live off interest like the rentier I'm a peasant that has it's labor extracted. That informs my opinion and perspective. I don't expect yours to be identical.

We had some training in our district by a protege of Saul Alinsky's. I found his process of community organizing very effective way of organizing community efforts.



Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 08:08 PM
Quote
So were back to 'she'd be great to have a beer with'?
Yep! She'd be great for children and families, she'd already have that 12 buck minimum wage on the books with plans to increase it to 15 by 2020. ACA would be polished up and running smoothly, immigration reform would be well under way, and a lot less people would be dead from ICE abuse and Trump cultists shooting Mexicans. Wouldn't be no children in cages and new taxes would be introduced to help level the income playing field. The Republican Tax cuts would never have occurred and we'd be marching steadily towards that Global Utopian Social Democracy that I one day dream of.
But you'd still be pissed because BERNIE!!!

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 08:10 PM
I couldn't disagree more. You speak of fantasies but I hammer her record.
He thinks I make 200+ a year.
I wish.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 08:29 PM
Jeesus christ on a crutch Jeff!
Not everything is about you or implicates you.
I'm explaining in the broadest possible terms, what shapes my political view and don't expect my situation to be the same as yours. Nor would it be the same as someone living in the suburban hog farms making 200k and votes democrat.

That does not mean that I think your living in the Suburban hog farms making 200k.

FFS.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 09:37 PM
"It’s so ridiculous that it’s laughable. It’s so ridiculous. But it just shows, though, that launching a smear campaign is the only response that they have to the truth, which means they’re afraid of the truth because it’s real. And more and more people are seeing past the façade that they have built up for so long."

Full Article

A timely article out today by Taibbi. A dive into the schism taking place in the Democratic party and it's base represented by the Tulsi Gabbard/Kamala Harris fight.

Similar to the Sanders/Clinton schism without the baggage.

A nice treat to see Matt Taibbi and Katie Halper working together.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
"It’s so ridiculous that it’s laughable. It’s so ridiculous. But it just shows, though, that launching a smear campaign is the only response that they have to the truth, which means they’re afraid of the truth because it’s real. And more and more people are seeing past the façade that they have built up for so long."

Full Article

A timely article out today by Taibbi. A dive into the schism taking place in the Democratic party and it's base represented by the Tulsi Gabbard/Kamala Harris fight.

Similar to the Sanders/Clinton schism without the baggage.

A nice treat to see Matt Taibbi and Katie Halper working together.

I read it in bed this morning, great article and they both make excellent points. The difference is, if Gabbard wins the nomination I will be in the booth pulling the G lever.

You've already made it plain that you will only support whoever fits your exact expectations. Any deviation from those is grounds for your withdrawal.

I cannot afford that luxury. Neither can you but there is no way I will ever convince you of that.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 10:14 PM
Doesn't make a rat's ass one way or another whether you vote or who you vote for, never has really. Clinton won by 3 million votes and lost the election did your vote matter in that election? Democrats gonna win this time, whoever gets the non nom.
They're going to take the Senate too.

Gabbard and Harris? Why is anybody even talking about them? Slow news day?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/19 10:16 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
You've already made it plain that you will only support whoever fits your exact expectations. Any deviation from those is grounds for your withdrawal.

I cannot afford that luxury. Neither can you but there is no way I will ever convince you of that.

Tell me where I've said this Jeff.

On second thought, never mind. It's really pointless. I feel like it's high school study hall fueding.

Not voting is also a vote. That comes hard to some but it's true too.

Originally Posted by Greger
Doesn't make a rat's ass one way or another whether you vote or who you vote for, never has really. Clinton won by 3 million votes and lost the election did your vote matter in that election? Democrats gonna win this time, whoever gets the non nom.
They're going to take the Senate too.

Gabbard and Harris? Why is anybody even talking about them? Slow news day?

I hope to God you're right about the Dems taking back the Senate (and keeping the House, too)

No matter who wins the White House, the GOP blockade needs to be broken. Naturally I am hoping a Dem wins the White House, too.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/10/19 06:17 AM

Hillary Clinton = Republican-lite. No thank you. Hmm

Yes, we got a racist misogynistic sociopathic narcissist in return, but Hillary could never destroy the GOP like Fatass Trump is doing. A Hillary Clinton presidency would only have strengthened the GOP. America does not need a strengthened GOP. We need the GOP to go-away to the Conservative trash-heap of history.

smile

America will recover from Trump, his EOs and his incompetent Cabinet staff and his incompetent governance - the GOP never will. Bow
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Hillary Clinton = Republican-lite. No thank you. Hmm

Yes, we got a racist misogynistic sociopathic narcissist in return, but Hillary could never destroy the GOP like Fatass Trump is doing. A Hillary Clinton presidency would only have strengthened the GOP. America does not need a strengthened GOP. We need the GOP to go-away to the Conservative trash-heap of history.

smile

America will recover from Trump, his EOs and his incompetent Cabinet staff and his incompetent governance - the GOP never will. Bow

Do you think we can afford another four years of Trump + Republican Trifecta?
I sure don't think so.
One way or another we must break the logjam. Even if Trump wins the White House, we must break the GOP logjam in Congress and take power.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/19 06:46 PM
I think you nailed the Lib tag line for 2020.

"Trump... We can't afford another four years!"

God how I hope the Libs run on that.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think you nailed the Lib tag line for 2020.

"Trump... We can't afford another four years!"

God how I hope the Libs run on that.

If we can extricate ourselves from Trump, we have a better chance of addressing the many valid issues you have raised.
And yes, the thing that I think you miss is that I (and many others) DO recognize the points you made and see them as more than valid.
How about essential and crucial for a modifier?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/12/19 11:06 AM
I'm not sure who your referring to when you say 'we', Jeff.

Under the current right wing, free market leadership in the house and the campaign apparatus, I don't see the Democrats veering from their record of the last 40 years.

So long as they remain just another faction of the corporate wing we will continue to see it's base drift away and/or be economically annihilated.

I've seen no real critique of the Democratic parties flaccid record of progressive accomplishment here. No willingness to engage conversation of it's evolution towards an illiberal democratic party happenning right before our eyes.

Heck, no one even raises an eyebrow when it's right wing leadership attacks an emergent left and sets the stage for the fascists to further exploit.

You may think the party,, after a 2020 victory, may address some of the issues I have raised but the last forty years of their record would say otherwise. That's all my point is about. Refuting the notion that the Democratic party is a force for progress.

It simply isn't any longer.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/12/19 05:25 PM
Quote
I've seen no real critique of the Democratic parties flaccid record of progressive accomplishment here. No willingness to engage conversation of it's evolution towards an illiberal democratic party happening right before our eyes.
Sure you have. My vehement opposition to Biden is a real critique of the Democratic party's flaccid record of progressive accomplishment. No one disagrees that the moderate/conservative members of the party have thrown a monkey wrench into whatever progressive works might be attempted. We agree with you on pretty much everything.

So what's your strategy to fix it and how do you expect change to happen in real time? What's your goal and do enough people share it to eventually vote it into existence? You beat on us and beat on us for fumbling around and trying to use the tools we've got at hand. Maybe you got better tools back at your shop, I dunno, this hammer and Skilsaw is all I got to work with here.

You want Bernie? Vote him in.

It's just that simple.
Lefties like to vote by sitting on their hands. Can't much be bothered with the voting thing, especially during the primaries. Didn't get off their asses to nominate him in 2016 and likely won't this time around.

I'm sure you voted, Chunks, but I didn't. I refuse to join the Democratic Party, just like Bernie, I usually caucus with them and haven't voted for a Republican in years. Florida's new governor may be the exception in 2022. He's doing a remarkable job and while I may not agree with him about a lot of stuff he deserves a vote of confidence and a second term. Eventually the subject of Medicaid is going to come up and I'll reserve my final judgement for his decision on that.

But yeah...neolibruls vote like crazy in the primaries, the "radical left" not so much...change that and you conquer the world.
Posted By: itstarted Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/12/19 05:49 PM
Personal opinion... I think the President has no intention of serving a second term. Who would want to work 3 hours a day if they didn't have to?
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/12/19 07:02 PM
Originally Posted by itstarted
Personal opinion... I think the President has no intention of serving a second term. Who would want to work 3 hours a day if they didn't have to?
ROTFMOL

After hair and make-up, Trump makes an appearance for work around 11am EDT and finishes up the work day by 3pm just in time for some Fox News. Such an Alpha Male. coffee
I like Scaramucci's tweet about Trump:

Quote
“Silence in the face of evil is itself evil: God will not hold us guiltless. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act.”
Dietrich Boenhoffer

5,506
8:31 PM - Aug 11, 2019

He's also comparing Trump to Chernobyl, and saying that the GOP may replace him on their ticket for 2020.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/19 11:35 AM
Pardon me for saying so but I don't think we agree on as much as your suggesting. Which is fine and I don't have a problem with that any more than others here disagree with some of the far right posters that sometimes return.
Some thoughts on where we might disagree would be Clintonism, Labor/Trade unionism, Defining the Democratic party as 'Left', strategies to win elections,Economic and political neoliberalism (or it's existence) etc...
But I thought that was what this site was supposed to be about. A scrum of ideas or something like it? Or is it something else entirely and I missed the thread?
As far as 'what's your stratagy to fix it?', I've given some suggestions though I don't see why it's my job to have a solution any more than it's yours. One thing is for sure, it's not online posting and I don't confuse that with real involvement. I'll say it again, posting just helps to clarify my thoughts and positions but is no substitute for real involvement.
As far as lefty voting, Sanders won in the states that Clinton failed to carry resulting in defeat. Neoliberals control the machine, campaign dollars and media so it's a little more complicated than your simplistic solution. When there's no left option how do you vote left?
When there is a left alternative that manages to break through these barriers the results can be surprising though and destroys the 'poors just don't like to vote' fallacy, IMO. A self serving view if there ever was one.
Deep down I think the problems are now insurmountable politically and economically. I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of economic meltdown, a rise in facism (can't go left!) radicalized nationalism thruout the world followed by 'BOOM!'.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Pardon me for saying so but I don't think we agree on as much as your suggesting.

Who were you replying to, or was this a "REPLY ALL" kind of post?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/19 09:36 PM
Quote
Pardon me for saying so but I don't think we agree on as much as your suggesting.
We agree that the Democratic Party is not what it should be. That we are headed for economic disaster and possibly extinction.
And that something needs to be done about all this.

We have two progressive candidates on the ballot and a score of centrists. Our goal is to see that one or the other of them is elected.

The immediate areas of concern that I'd like to see dealt with in the next decade are these...A living wage. Universal healthcare. Subsidized higher education. Over the next century I'd like to see every nation on the planet following this example.

Global Utopian Social Democracy. Every nation self sufficient with a well paid, well educated, and healthy workforce.

I can see a path to this if either Warren or Sanders is elected.

So that's my plan, what's yours?




Sounds like a pretty good plan to me, Greger.
Which is why I am glad to hear that Liz is actually in 2nd place behind Biden in a growing number of states.
If Joe keeps sticking his foot in his mouth, she just might wind up on top.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 12:54 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Pardon me for saying so but I don't think we agree on as much as your suggesting.

Who were you replying to, or was this a "REPLY ALL" kind of post?

Gregor
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 01:17 AM
I'd like a candidate or movement that can fundamentally change the way we conceive of politics, labor, society and the economy. I would vote for that individual or group.

Short of that I'd like the Democratic party to implode to create a possibility for something else.


I had hoped that child banging Epstein would reveal the scum on top of systems of power, our two parties and our revered wealthy to be the degenerates they are.That they are fundamentally the same. That it would start something that the Panama Papers didn't.
I think this week the opposite has happened with Epstein being suicided. The wealthy and powerful are letting us know they will walk on our faces and there is no hope anything can be done about it. And now they know you know it.

So good luck voting for a wish list. See you at the edge.
Posted By: Mellowicious Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 01:44 AM
You might start by electing a broad slate of women and minorities. Very likely to get a different view of things, at least until everyone sinks back into the mud.

I’m not suggesting those candidates would be inherently better - just that they’d have different points of view. Which is what you’re wanting, correct?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 02:08 AM
Quote
I'd like a candidate or movement that can fundamentally change the way we conceive of politics, labor, society and the economy.
The movement is afoot! Bernie set it rolling in 2016 and it will not be stopped.
You're such a Grumpycat! If I couldn't see a possible way forward to defeat global warming and create a thriving global economy I wouldn't have any reason to get up in the morning.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 02:13 AM
I did Mellow. I helped with the AOC campaign and Cynthia Nixon. Helped get another on the congressional district ballot. Door to door stuff. Phone banking etc...

Some women can be every bit as horrible as men. Thatcher comes to mind.

I would put it higher than different point of view but anything that splits with what we have as conventional political wisdom would be a good start.
Posted By: Mellowicious Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 02:30 AM
As I said, there is no reason to believe that women and/or minorities would be inherently better. But in large enough numbers, with varying enough backgrounds, things might be different for a while.

As a starting place I think a woman who made her living as, oh, a barmaid, is going to have a perspective closer to mine than someone whose "Pup" bought his way into Harvard and left him millions. Might not be anything wrong with that millionaire, but we keep saying we want a change, right?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I would put it higher than different point of view but anything that splits with what we have as conventional political wisdom would be a good start.

Does it absolutely HAVE to be an instant, binary and drastic split?
I ask not because of a need to advocate for incrementalism, but because my impression is that incrementalism is about as radical as it gets for societies short of what IS actually instant: REVOLUTION. (usually bloody - sometimes not)



There's no Osterizer 7-speed levels of LOW, SPIN, CHOP, WHIP, PUREE, HIGH.

[Linked Image from images.homedepot-static.com]

There's just three speeds:

1. STAGNANT (stable)
2. INCREMENTAL
3. "Oh SH!T"



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 02:40 AM
At this moment in history what has 'incrementalism' accomplished for average Americans?

On the other hand, the rich have done wonderfully with their revolutionary goals.




Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 02:43 AM
I agree Mellow. But then I would draw your attention to the most recent DNC election rules. They put them in for one reason. To not allow another of the bootless and horseless get elected.

Even Republicans haven't pulled that.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
At this moment in history what has 'incrementalism' accomplished for average Americans?

On the other hand, the rich have done wonderfully with their revolutionary goals.

You have put that out there quite often and I agree.
That's it. I agree.

Still doesn't change what I said just above, that it APPEARS to ME (I can only speak for myself on this) that society only has the three gears, 1. STABLE, 2. INCRE and 3. Oh SH!T!

So you have to pick. There's nothing in between 2 and 3, it is a very wide span between those two "speeds".

It's like puttering along at 45 mph, dropping it into 1st gear and sidestepping the clutch and flooring the gas at the same time.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 02:53 AM
Sorry Jeff. I don't see the current situation as a countertop appliance analogy with some arbitrarily imposed settings.

I made a remark sometime after 2016 to a relative that we already lost most of the New Deal consensus and solidarity after much struggle. We would probably be lucky to land somewhere around the gilded age. We hit the gilded age of inequality a couple of years ago. That's some remarkably regressive speed.

But I'll play along. What does it mean if a blender has insane reverse settings?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Sorry Jeff. I don't see the current situation as a countertop appliance analogy with some arbitrarily imposed settings.

I made a remark sometime after 2016 to a relative that we already lost most of the New Deal consensus and solidarity after much struggle. We would probably be lucky to land somewhere around the gilded age. We hit the gilded age of inequality a couple of years ago. That's some remarkably regressive speed.

But I'll play along. What does it mean if a blender has insane reverse settings?

I said that this ISN'T a countertop appliance.
Re-read what I posted.

What is your opinion of

1. Stable
2. Incremental
3. Oh SH!T!!

Do you agree or disagree that the gulf between 2 and 3 is extremely wide?
Posted By: Kaine Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 12:05 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
On the other hand, the rich have done wonderfully with their revolutionary goals.
I wonder how many steps it took them to get this far - or did they do it in one giant leap?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 12:09 PM
Uhhh yes. You making an argument for a three speed blender as it relates to societies.

You've making an argument for what exactly? That you'd rather have it be incrementalism than 'Oh s***!'. I think we've hit the OS setting awhile ago. We have lived thru a revolutionary transformation of our society and not for the better (IMO).

It's heaven on earth if your rich and hell to be poor. That's where 'incrementalism has gotten us with the democratic party. They have been complicit for much of this state of affairs having decided to join hands with republicans and dismantle the New Deal for corporate patronage. That's a pretty revolutionary act in and of itself. I'll say it again, having an adversary sell you out is one thing but having an ally do it to you is another.



We may disagree with this forever but incrementalism is just a lowering of expectations. 'I can't do 15/hr. but I could do perhaps 12', etc.

Your case is it leads to 'oh sh!t'. Well for some maybe. the trick is to make sure it's the right ones like FDR did.

I simply believe were at a point were radical transformation of the democratic party is necessary. Anything short of that and it's going to be an Flynt for everyone who isn't in the club.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 12:13 PM
Clinton was a giant leap, IMO.
That's not some 'hatred' talking but a look at the record of what he and Hillary accomplished while in office.
In hindsight, it was pretty revolutionary stuff.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/19 12:22 PM
Y'all realize that I'm in the tank for a candidate that has 'revolution' in his campaign. What's laughable is Sanders is just resubmitting 'New Dealists' ideas into politics.
This has been called radical, pipe dreams and unicorns by the mainstream press and libs since 2015.
That's pretty far out and telling of where we've gotten to today. What once was considered political consensus by one generation is now radicalism by the children of that same generation.

Dialectics are a b!tch!
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Uhhh yes. You making an argument for a three speed blender as it relates to societies.

You gotta stop doing that. No really, why do you NEED me to be making an argument in FAVOR of that?
It's not true, sorry. I am NOT IN FAVOR of it, it's what I have observed.
I'm saying that the way it is, our society HAS those three speeds, and unfortunately speed #3 is "The Sh!t Has Hit the Fan" hitsfan

and the other two aren't nearly transformative enough...and there doesn't seem to be anything in between 2 and 3.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
You've making an argument for what exactly? That you'd rather have it be incrementalism than 'Oh s***!'.

See? You're doing it again. You're putting words in my mouth.
Apparently you are DESPERATE to put me in some kind of box.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think we've hit the OS setting awhile ago. We have lived thru a revolutionary transformation of our society and not for the better (IMO).

It's heaven on earth if your rich and hell to be poor. That's where 'incrementalism has gotten us with the democratic party. They have been complicit for much of this state of affairs having decided to join hands with republicans and dismantle the New Deal for corporate patronage. That's a pretty revolutionary act in and of itself. I'll say it again, having an adversary sell you out is one thing but having an ally do it to you is another.

We may disagree with this forever but incrementalism is just a lowering of expectations. 'I can't do 15/hr. but I could do perhaps 12', etc.

Your case is it leads to 'oh sh!t'. Well for some maybe. the trick is to make sure it's the right ones like FDR did.

I simply believe were at a point were radical transformation of the democratic party is necessary. Anything short of that and it's going to be an Flynt for everyone who isn't in the club.

How do you propose going about pulling off that "trick"?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/19 01:37 AM
Coupla points Jeff,

You asked me if I read and understood your post with blenders and speed settings. Yeah, I did. I'm not in favor of you being in favor of anything. Just answering your question of what I thought you wrote. Was that wrong? Were you saying something about societies being like a blender with only three speeds and not seven or something.

Seriously, I don't do well with consumer product analogies and politics. Wether they be countertop appliances, mid mount engine cars with push button transmissions or whathaveya.

Someone said that when societies get into an untenable situation and conditions get unbearable they tend to sulk for a time. It's at that point that they will try something new. If a left option is open to them they can go that way. If a rightward option is offered they will go that way. One thing for sure is that they will go in any direction than the one there currently in. I tend to agree with that observation and I think were trying out the right wing option. The left option was denied.

As far as answers I'm not the one to ask anymore. I've given suggestions buy why repeat myself. We don't have nearly the amount of class consciousness we once had. Labor unions are almost gone. Leftist political groups, ditto.

I dunno, what do you suggest. Vote Democrat?

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Coupla points Jeff,

You asked me if I read and understood your post with blenders and speed settings. Yeah, I did. I'm not in favor of you being in favor of anything. Just answering your question of what I thought you wrote. Was that wrong? Were you saying something about societies being like a blender with only three speeds and not seven or something.

Seriously, I don't do well with consumer product analogies and politics. Wether they be countertop appliances, mid mount engine cars with push button transmissions or whathaveya.

Someone said that when societies get into an untenable situation and conditions get unbearable they tend to sulk for a time. It's at that point that they will try something new. If a left option is open to them they can go that way. If a rightward option is offered they will go that way. One thing for sure is that they will go in any direction than the one there currently in. I tend to agree with that observation and I think were trying out the right wing option. The left option was denied.

As far as answers I'm not the one to ask anymore. I've given suggestions buy why repeat myself. We don't have nearly the amount of class consciousness we once had. Labor unions are almost gone. Leftist political groups, ditto.

I dunno, what do you suggest. Vote Democrat?

Well put, Chunk.
I need a minute, but I wanted you to know I read your well thought out post and appreciated it.
What do I suggest? Get Trump out by any means necessary.
That's all I can think of for the moment but if I can take a minute I'm sure I'll come up with more.

But off the top of my head: Get rid of Trump and marginalize the GOP long enough for everyone to catch their breath.

To be continued.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/19 03:08 AM
Have you ever considered what brought us to Trump? Beyond the Russian narrative? Not saying you advocate the Russian excuse, just that it's what a lot of people and politicians are selling.

That's what interests me most and I can't walk away from that dive without realizing much of the blame rests on the shift in political alignment with the Democratic party.

For me, supporting that realignment can't offer a way out of our current political/economic crises. Were going to have to face the mounting contradictions of capitalism sooner or later. Will it be right wing authoritarian (oh wait...) or left wing egalitarian?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Have you ever considered what brought us to Trump? Beyond the Russian narrative? Not saying you advocate the Russian excuse, just that it's what a lot of people and politicians are selling.

That's what interests me most and I can't walk away from that dive without realizing much of the blame rests on the shift in political alignment with the Democratic party.

For me, supporting that realignment can't offer a way out of our current political/economic crises. Were going to have to face the mounting contradictions of capitalism sooner or later. Will it be right wing authoritarian (oh wait...) or left wing egalitarian?

You have to define your terms re Russia.
I don't buy the notion that some army of Boris Badenovs hacked the voting machines. Sure, it can be done but that's not why Russia was and still is a problem.

For me, from where I sit, Russia simply succeeded in upping the static and lowering the signal to noise ratio just enough to get everybody fighting over bullcrap and agitprop.

What brought us to Trump, in my humble opinion, started with The Powell Memo. Ronnie Ray Gun accelerated it into overdrive and suddenly the Great Peristalsis to the Right made every Democrat "feel ashamed".

Then the Clintons advanced their stupid "Third Way" neoliberal nonsense. A 1994 rout of the Dems in Congress paved the way for the truly insufferable Contract ON America and by the time we got ourselves embroiled in a very convenient war, the very idea of being liberal was almost considered a crime.
Democrats went to sleep and liberals were ashamed.

Not me, not you, but a lot of them. Most liberals didn't fight back, or fight hard enough.
Bubba "seemed liberal" on the surface.
Note that I said "seemed".

You want a fight, okay then, let's have a fight.
I'll drag my 63 year old ass out there and try to help you fight.
You want a revolution?
Okay then, is there a plan for after the revolution succeeds?

Let's hear it.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/19 03:59 AM
You keep asking me for the answer to a problem I've given you suggestions on before. Do I think it's enough though? Probably not. Whatever comes down the pike won't be what you or I imagine but I do think it will be very unpleasant.

Trumpism and it's international variations are not going away. It won't be countered by the current Democratic party as far as I can tell. It would be nice to get rid of the deadwood in the Democratic party and allow the energy and good ideas in. I've suggested ideas for that but it's not a sure bet that will show any great success.
I live in New York. A dodgy political state if there ever was one. We have a 'Democratic' governor that makes all sorts of aspirational progressive promises to voters on election day but uses the party machine to elect rebadged republicans as democrats to allow him the excuse to not be able to ever deliver on those promises. They were called the IDC or the 'Independent Democratic Caucus'. They caucus with the minority republicans making them a defacto majority. This governor held fundraisers for them over more progressive primary challengers. That's the play both here and at the federal level.

'We wanted to do these awesome things we talked about if it weren't for those republicans...' Sound familiar? Didn't Joe Biden campaign for a republican in 2018? Didn't the DNC black listing just make it much much harder to unseat a rebadged republican blue dog in deep blue districts. It's not like the DNC put those impediments in for no reason.

You have to overcome those obstacles if you want real progressives. Blue no matter who is not going to solve that problem for progressives.

That's the problem with a two party system. It's to easily gamed in this way and many more.

I'll say it again, the road for real progressives is very tough. They not only have to fight the Party in the primary but win in the general, often with no support at all from the party after winning the primary.

It's not just a simple matter of lefties being lazy and not voting. More of not having choices due to the DNC.

2016 y'all.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/19 04:34 PM
So this hit yesterday....

"The Kochs enlisted the help of Third Way, a corporate-funded centrist group that has long opposed progressive populists like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, after the Democrats won control of Congress in 2006, according to excerpts from Leonard's book published by The Intercept. Concerned that Democrats were souring on free trade, which threatened their oil importation business, the Kochs sought to use the group to promote free trade to Democrats."

Koch Brothers funding Third Way Democratic think tank

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
So this hit yesterday....

"The Kochs enlisted the help of Third Way, a corporate-funded centrist group that has long opposed progressive populists like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, after the Democrats won control of Congress in 2006, according to excerpts from Leonard's book published by The Intercept. Concerned that Democrats were souring on free trade, which threatened their oil importation business, the Kochs sought to use the group to promote free trade to Democrats."

Koch Brothers funding Third Way Democratic think tank

Confirmed. This was sort of an open secret for a long time.
People couldn't quite prove it but it was a lot like the Watergate case, pretty safe bet but not yet confirmed...until it finally was confirmed.

Yeah, the Kochs love to meddle with soft-bellied Blue Dogs.
"Who's a good boy!!" (rub rub rub)

All the more reason to catapult the Bernie and Liz Warrens to the fore. Eventually the Kochs will have to face facts...they're not welcome anymore.

No one said it would be easy. Money talks. And they have mountains of it.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/19 07:20 PM
One way to look at it is that Democrats have been selling off their base for corporate patronage for decades now. The problem with that is you get to a point where you no longer win elections as you don't have enough votes. You don't have enough votes because of a legitimacy crises.

In order to regain legitimacy with voters you deploy propaganda and focus on issues that may drive voters back into your camp. You won't disturb the rentiers by supporting voters real material, economic concerns. So instead you get:

Racists running out of the woods.
Russia
The fight to preserve 'normalcy'
Gender equality
Immigration round ups
Etc..

The problem with that play is you solve none of the long term systemic contradictions of choosing money over people. ANy reasonable proposals and candidates are being squelched by money in the Democratic party.

If the Party collapses (No signs of that yet but one can dream) that would provide some political space for something better to come in (we have worse currently). A left wing alternative perhaps?

Random thoughts is all...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/19 10:30 PM
My plan for years has been to crush the Republican Party then start in on the Democrats. 2020 is looking like an excellent chance for the former and advances by social democrats are making the latter seem more attainable.

Originally Posted by Greger
My plan for years has been to crush the Republican Party then start in on the Democrats. 2020 is looking like an excellent chance for the former and advances by social democrats are making the latter seem more attainable.

Thank you! S'what I've been trying to say!
First, we extricate ourselves from this largely self-inflicted prison, marginalize the GOP for a generation and while that's moldering, we start remaking the Democrats back into the Left party they're supposed to be again.

We HAVE the blueprint on how it's done, the Tea Party did it to the Republicans starting in 2010. In two or three years time the Tea Party WAS the Republican Party.

Now, of course we need to be SMARTER than they are, which means we don't bring in a bunch of clowns like they did, but the mechanism works, we saw it work.

Buh-bye Chuck Schumer, buh-bye all the rest of you establisment neoliberal peter puffers.

Pelosi already indicated that she's probably going to make this term her swan song, so there's that.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/19 02:31 AM
In both cases it's a matter of patience and giving them enough rope to hang themselves. Interesting note on hangings...rope length was an important calculation for hangmen. Too short and the hangee dangled there kicking their legs as they strangled. Too long and it ripped their heads right off and made an awful mess. When the Republicans finally hit bottom in 2020 it's gonna be one of the messy ones.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/19 03:30 AM
A wish is not a plan.

Republicans dont give tenure to their representatives nor blacklist anyone with the gall to challenge them in the primary.

What exactly is the plan to overcome Democrats imposed obstacles to electing progressives? Electing tenured Democrats?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/19 04:01 AM
It's all about the rope, little buddy!

The rope. When 70% of the voters are in favor of something(living wage etc) but 70% of the politicians are against it then you've got an opportunity for change.
We're on the brink of generational change.

I can smell it in the air. Like a breathe of fall.

Change.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/19 03:23 PM
I think you'd hard put to show any evidence of popular support of policy and political legislation. Public support has had almost no impact for decades now.
Capital on the other hand....

So since the "whats your plan?' question has been made as a qualifier of the accuracy of observation and criticism of the existing political situation, I'll have to ask you again, what is the plan?

Admittedly, I agree with allowing the Democrats to hang themselves but I don't think It'll happen in 2020. They'll run a "We can't afford 4 more years' and push Biden out in front of voters. No ideas, no solutions to some of these overwhelming problems. Trump wins.
May pick up more in the house. But I draw your attention to the imposed obstacles of electing progressives.

I don't see how 'give em enough rope' will make any change within the Democratic party with the current party structural situation.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/19 07:27 PM
Plan is out the window if Biden is elected. Long term result between Biden and Trump are almost identical. Because neo-librals. I'd shoot myself right now if I believed Biden couldn't be beaten by Warren or Sanders.

Re-configuration of the Democratic Party can only begin in earnest after they are in power. AOC will be the defacto voice of the House if not, in fact, the Speaker. The Squad is going to grow in numbers as a few lefty white guys and maybe a lesbian of color get swept in with the anti-Trump wave. In the near future they are going to be the cool kids on the block and hanging with them is going to get you headlines, donors and votes. They will pull moderates leftward and embolden others to step to the left.

The Senate will flip with a progressive candidate but not necessarily if it's Biden. Don't even ask me why I think this but I do.

Party bosses won't be happy but there is a political wind blowing and they can choose to go with it or against it. They've been tacking against it for some time but after a while beating your way upwind becomes impossible.

But this scenario depends entirely on a progressive candidate winning.

FOX News polls are showing Trump losing badly against any of the top 4 candidates. The only possible reason to vote for Biden is rapidly going away.

Change. Can you smell it?
Originally Posted by Greger
Plan is out the window if Biden is elected. Long term result between Biden and Trump are almost identical. Because neo-librals. I'd shoot myself right now if I believed Biden couldn't be beaten by Warren or Sanders.

Re-configuration of the Democratic Party can only begin in earnest after they are in power. AOC will be the defacto voice of the House if not, in fact, the Speaker. The Squad is going to grow in numbers as a few lefty white guys and maybe a lesbian of color get swept in with the anti-Trump wave. In the near future they are going to be the cool kids on the block and hanging with them is going to get you headlines, donors and votes. They will pull moderates leftward and embolden others to step to the left.

The Senate will flip with a progressive candidate but not necessarily if it's Biden. Don't even ask me why I think this but I do.

Party bosses won't be happy but there is a political wind blowing and they can choose to go with it or against it. They've been tacking against it for some time but after a while beating your way upwind becomes impossible.

But this scenario depends entirely on a progressive candidate winning.

FOX News polls are showing Trump losing badly against any of the top 4 candidates. The only possible reason to vote for Biden is rapidly going away.

Change. Can you smell it?

Biden is four monster gaffes, maybe even three, away from conceding to Liz Warren. I don't mean that I think he will give a concession speech...I mean she's going to beat the pants off him as he tries in vain to get the marbles in his mouth to sync up with the neo-liberal marbles in his head.

And Liz "has a plan for that".
No really, Liz Has a Plan for That!

Warren Has a Plan For That

It's growing legs!
Biden? He doesn't have a plan for anything except

"The 1990's - - Lather Rinse Repeat"

And it's going to ultimately fall flat.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/19 09:45 PM
Biden - Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead
Warren- Warren Has A Plan For That
Sanders- Not Me, Us
Trump- Keep America Great Again

Hmmmmm......
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/19/19 07:02 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Biden - Our Best Days Still Lie Ahead
Warren- Warren Has A Plan For That
Sanders- Not Me, Us
Trump- Keep America Great Again

Hmmmmm......

Okay.....based on that, I like the one who has a plan. I want the new CEO of the USA to hit the ground running in January of 2021. It's going to be a bloodbath. Government will be topsy turvey with the progressive takeover and immediate action will need to take place. The battleground will be covered with corpses and crows picking them clean. The house has hundreds of bills and resolutions ready to be flushed through a compliant senate.
I want a mind that's quick and nimble, one that is versed in law. If we take her message to heart, she has already done the research as a US Senator and knows what needs to be tweaked to get the pressure off the US workforce. What Trump promised but didn't ever have a plan for.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/19 12:05 PM
Self reflect on this piece from Rolling Stone.

Trump 2020
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/19 10:18 PM
There's a reason that Democracy wasn't historically popular as a means of choosing your leaders. People are idiots. Republicans have found a way to exploit this weakness by attracting that demographic.

They have harnessed "Mob Rule". The rats and cockroaches come scurrying out in support of more garbage!

It worked in 2016 but it aint gonna fly a second time.

Originally Posted by Greger
There's a reason that Democracy wasn't historically popular as a means of choosing your leaders. People are idiots. Republicans have found a way to exploit this weakness by attracting that demographic.

They have harnessed "Mob Rule". The rats and cockroaches come scurrying out in support of more garbage!

It worked in 2016 but it aint gonna fly a second time.

Yeah I love how I keep hearing about how democracy is mob rule.
Excuse me, Trumpism is mob rule!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/22/19 03:19 AM
Well allright!

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/22/19 11:50 PM
Did I hear someone say the end of Donald Trump? Is word starting to get out about the bloodbath?
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 01:33 AM
"So when I went to Dayton, and when I went to El Paso, and I went into those hospitals, the love for me -- and me, maybe, as a representative of the country -- but for me -- and my love for them was unparalleled."
Matt Taibbi is one of my favorite curmudgeons.
Been a fan of his since he was writing for an underground Russian mag.

His "The Great American Bubble Machine" piece on Goldman should be required reading.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 03:22 AM


Hell hath no fury like a really, R-E-A-L-L-Y pissed-off suburban educated woman. Trump is toast.

smile
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 02:39 PM
We, collectively, all of us, need to get out and vote, get out the vote, and crush, absolutely crush, this Gollum and his frikkin deluded support system. I do believe that the majority of Americans are decent, honorable people. It is time for them to come out and prove it.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 03:19 PM
This is fast becoming a Biden-Warren race (sorry Bernie), as more (now 4) Dems drop their bids, and others fade. Who do we see as potential running mates? Biden/Harris (patch the rift)? Biden/Beto (sub O'rourke for O'bama)? Biden/Klobuchar? Warren/Booker? Warren/Buttigieg (wonk power!)?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 03:26 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
This is fast becoming a Biden-Warren race (sorry Bernie), as more (now 4) Dems drop their bids, and others fade. Who do we see as potential running mates? Biden/Harris (patch the rift)? Biden/Beto (sub O'rourke for O'bama)? Biden/Klobuchar? Warren/Booker? Warren/Buttigieg (wonk power!)?

I know centrists and media like pushing that narrative. Much like Centrism and incrementalism, it's been shown to be hollow and lacking any meaningful evidence to back the claim.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 03:31 PM
"Former presidential candidate Jay Inslee, who exited the 2020 race on Wednesday, made waves when he announced a $9 trillion plan to combat climate change, a large portion of which would be leveraged investments from the private sector. Sanders’ plan goes much, much further. It guarantees a $16.3 trillion investment through 2030 to radically reshape American life and address the climate crisis.

The plan itself doesn’t focus on where the money will come from, though the campaign did say it would come in part from new taxes on the rich, raising revenue from the plan itself, reduced social safety net costs, and a few other sources. Instead, it focuses on who gets the money. The plan commits trillions of dollars to grants for low- and middle-income families to do everything from home weatherization to buying a new electric vehicle, and it would create a whole new host of publicly owned energy and internet infrastructure. It also uses language like “we will spend,” “we plan to provide,” and “give.” I’m not going all bUt HoW wIlL wE pAy FoR iT, given that we need a livable planet, but the language and the recipients themselves are the message: This is a goddamn revolution."

Full article

Corporate centrists, having nothing to run on cept' 'Trump Bad!' yet will continue to back the political/economic policies that has driven us to where we are today. No ideas are coming from there. Like the american suburbs themselves, their politics are about alienation and consumption. No culture or ideas come from those places.

Warren wants to put new brakes on the soul harvester. Bernie wants a different ride.

Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 03:57 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
This is fast becoming a Biden-Warren race (sorry Bernie), as more (now 4) Dems drop their bids, and others fade. Who do we see as potential running mates? Biden/Harris (patch the rift)? Biden/Beto (sub O'rourke for O'bama)? Biden/Klobuchar? Warren/Booker? Warren/Buttigieg (wonk power!)?

I know centrists and media like pushing that narrative. Much like Centrism and incrementalism, it's been shown to be hollow and lacking any meaningful evidence to back the claim.
other than, I suppose, facts and polling? What criteria do you propose, my friend? Wishful/magical thinking?

Oh, I see the answer. Add in magical economics.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 04:13 PM
Quote
Who do we see as potential running mates?
Too many moving parts to even zoom in on a likely field of possibilities. Has a candidate EVER chosen a competitor in the primaries as a running mate?

Seems almost like a no brainer to pick the number 2 candidate in the primaries as the VP candidate...whose idea was it to let an un-elected candidate appoint the next VP?

A lot of candidates this time around seem to be using the race as an application for the job...like a reality/game show....AMERICA"S GOT POLITICIANS...competing to move on to the next round.

Most likely the next VP candidate will be someone we've never heard of and there will be a collective: "Who?....WHY???"
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/19 05:52 PM
Quote
Corporate centrists, having nothing to run on cept' 'Trump Bad!' yet will continue to back the political/economic policies that has driven us to where we are today. No ideas are coming from there. Like the american suburbs themselves, their politics are about alienation and consumption. No culture or ideas come from those places.

Warren wants to put new brakes on the soul harvester. Bernie wants a different ride.
This time around, Trump Bad is enough to win the election.

Lotta voters aren't sure they can afford a new ride. New brakes on the soul harvester would be nice though, and more in line with the current budget...y'know?
But Bernie is still in the race. Inslee and a few others are not.

I don't see much of a path to him getting the nomination, but it's still early, things can change, and not one single vote has been cast yet. They generally drop out as the money dries up.

Primaries have a really low turnout, mostly old centrists. It's the one real chance the left has to influence the party. Send him money and he'll stay in the race. Swarm the polls and the caucuses like they were a Proud Boys event and yall can put your boy in the drivers seat.
I read a huffpost article today demanding that Warren renounce her claim of Cherokee ancestry.

Elizabeth Warren Has Spent Her Adult Life Repeating A Lie

Quote
She simply needs to state she does not have a Cherokee ancestor and that she was wrong to claim one.

Of course, that would be a lie. Her DNA results show that she does indeed have some Native American genes. How did they get there, if not for some distant Native American ancestry? She never claimed to be Cherokee, or any tribe. The article author is suffering from political correctness to the extent that she is denying reality.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I read a huffpost article today demanding that Warren renounce her claim of Cherokee ancestry.

Elizabeth Warren Has Spent Her Adult Life Repeating A Lie

Quote
She simply needs to state she does not have a Cherokee ancestor and that she was wrong to claim one.

Of course, that would be a lie. Her DNA results show that she does indeed have some Native American genes. How did they get there, if not for some distant Native American ancestry? She never claimed to be Cherokee, or any tribe. The article author is suffering from political correctness to the extent that she is denying reality.

More and more I can count on HuffPost to be a publication that promotes empty political correctness and the notion that it's okay to be more offended than the person or group supposedly being targeted.

What persons or groups were "targeted" by Liz Warren? mad
NONE!

She'd grown up hearing an old bit of family folklore, and all the ancestral originators had long since been in the ground, so they could not speak to the authenticity but as with most folklore, it was passed down. Maybe there was a lone native American in the woodpile, maybe there wasn't but it was an old family story, nothing more.

My wife's father was told the exact same thing by his mother the whole time he was growing up. No one can verify it. He certainly had the look of a Cherokee.

But again, Edith (and Karen's father) are both dead and gone for decades now, so nobody can verify whether or not it was just an old bit of baloney or not.

My only take on this is, when the subject came up, Liz should have said that she was "only going to comment on this ONE TIME, that it was an old family story that everyone was told, PERIOD, end of story, thanks for inquiring."

And that is where it should have ended.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 03:54 AM
When I was a child, my father often told people that I was a fart-headed laffer, but there was no Ancestry.com report to bear it out....
PS: The Cherokee Nation is erasing actual full blood Cherokees off their roster at a rate that is similar to Amazon deforestation, and for one reason only:
Casino money.

So let's forget all notions of Liz Warren's minor goof being damaging to the Cherokees.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 01:34 PM
Sure, yeah, why not.

It's not as though combating global warming doesn't have broad popular support.

DNC rejects resolution calling for climate change debate

Sanders is ready for that debate. Warrren's probably got a plan.

One wonders who's side Perez and the DNC is on......

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 01:48 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
This is fast becoming a Biden-Warren race (sorry Bernie), as more (now 4) Dems drop their bids, and others fade. Who do we see as potential running mates? Biden/Harris (patch the rift)? Biden/Beto (sub O'rourke for O'bama)? Biden/Klobuchar? Warren/Booker? Warren/Buttigieg (wonk power!)?

I know centrists and media like pushing that narrative. Much like Centrism and incrementalism, it's been shown to be hollow and lacking any meaningful evidence to back the claim.
other than, I suppose, facts and polling? What criteria do you propose, my friend? Wishful/magical thinking?

Oh, I see the answer. Add in magical economics.

Individual donors is a simple poll. It also measures voter enthusiasm as it has a real political economic component. I see no magic with it.

He also has a large volunteer force in all 50 states. Very dedicated and mobilized.

It may be that it's Biden or Warren. Can't say it's so easy to ignore Sanders at this point but, hey, why not. They did it in 2016 and we saw how that worked out....
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 04:59 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Who do we see as potential running mates?
Too many moving parts to even zoom in on a likely field of possibilities. Has a candidate EVER chosen a competitor in the primaries as a running mate?
Off the top of my head: Reagan picked GHW Bush; Kerry picked John Edwards; Obama picked Biden. Oh, and Kennedy picked Johnson.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 05:02 PM
Quote
One wonders who's side Perez and the DNC is on......
One doesn't have to wonder very much. The DNC is the money side of the party. They did change the "super-delegate" rule so perhaps they aren't evil incarnate. They are the purse strings of the party and as such you can expect them to be a bit on the centrist/corporatist side.

The refusal to grant the Climate Change Debate was one of structure rather than content...sort of.

Quote
Can't say it's so easy to ignore Sanders at this point but, hey, why not. They did it in 2016 and we saw how that worked out....

They didn't ignore Sanders. They just didn't agree with him. It's politics. There's a lot more to it than just being right, because everybody thinks they're right whether they agree with you or not.
The way it worked out was that Bernie didn't win in the primaries. He didn't get as many votes as Clinton. You can blame whoever you want but that's what happened. More people voted for Clinton and she got the nomination. Even though Clinton was being constantly attacked and mocked and harangued in the press and online, that anti-Clinton forces from the right and the left united for that one grand take down of the great evil detested by them both. She still got more votes.

Quote
we saw how that worked out....

Yeah we sat down that fateful night and watched Clinton get millions more votes than Trump. And then give a concession speech because she lost. And you somehow think Bernie got f*cked over worse than she did?

And you're still butthurt about that 2016 primary.
You want him to win...? GET HIM THE MOST VOTES.

Because on the primary election date in your state and mine a lot of Bernie fans are gonna sit home and say..."Why vote, he's not gonna win anyway because Democrats are assh*les and don't like us so we're not gonna play their silly game..."

And you know how that's gonna turn out?

I don't care whether it's Bernie or Liz. At the end of the day a Bernie and Liz ticket would thrill me to death. The closer we get to the 2020 primaries the more obvious it's going to become that Trump will not be able to win. Possibly won't even run. Republicans will basically abdicate power due to policy failures...So what is it we need Biden for? To beat Trump?

I see it turning into Warren vs Sanders race.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 05:13 PM
Quote
Off the top of my head:...
Okay...it was an honest question, I really didn't have any idea. Johnson turned out okay. But not in the way most southerners would have expected.
Biden's been a presidential candidate in every election since I was born, does he really count?

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 08:55 PM
"And you somehow think Bernie got f*cked over worse than she did?"

No. I think the country got f*cked over because of what she and her tribe did. It's not complicated.

I think your right about a Warren vs. Sanders race. Pretty sweet deal really.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/19 11:01 PM
Quote
I think your right about a Warren vs. Sanders race. Pretty sweet deal really.

Most of the single digit candidates will be running out of money soon. the rest won't get much past Idaho. Bernie and Liz are well funded. Biden is too.

Holy Cow! I was digging around and just noticed that California has moved their primary up to Super Tuesday March 13, that might help weed out the riff raff. WE should pretty much know the mood of the voters by then. I've just got a feeling we're gonna see Warren keep climbing.

"I've got a plan." That's a genius slogan. It's what people want to hear. We seriously need this country fixed and voters are going to hire the contractor who seems to have a plan and know how to do it.

Rumor has it that the other guy, "Crazy Bernie", was more expensive, would probably take longer, and quite frankly, seems a little daft. But they say he's like an artist or magician or something...


Originally Posted by chunkstyle
No. I think the country got f*cked over because of what she and her tribe did. It's not complicated.

Here ya go...;)
[Linked Image from static.politico.com]

If you're looking for the driving force in the Sanders screw-over, she's yo gurl.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think your right about a Warren vs. Sanders race. Pretty sweet deal really.

Let's just let Joe hang himself a few more times and I think we will get our Sanders-Warren race.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/19 01:23 AM
She did her bit no doubt. She became the very public face of a team of tribal loyalists no doubt. Whats Robby Mook, Donna Brazile or Podesta doing these days?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
She did her bit no doubt. She became the very public face of a team of tribal loyalists no doubt. Whats Robby Mook, Donna Brazile or Podesta doing these days?

She did the big bit although Mook, Brazile and Podesta chipped in to do her bidding, most definitely. wink
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/19 04:53 PM
The voters did it. These folks all had some small part in influencing them but the voters are the only ones who deserve credit or blame for the results of elections.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/31/19 02:30 PM
Trump vs Dems polling
Quote
Trump trails Democrats by a historically large margin

... it's worth pointing out the historically bad position Trump is in. No incumbent president has ever polled this poorly against his likely challengers at this point in the campaign.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/31/19 02:57 PM
Let us hope the polling continues its current trend. Two more Republicans pulled the plug on reelection just yesterday, which bodes well for Dems in the Senate and House, as well as influencing the GOP turnout. More than a dozen Republicans are l...wmakers who aren't running again in 2020 (USA Today). I don't want to get overexcited, as it is still 2019. I'm also impressed by Biden's staying power. I think the "gaffe-machine" mantra is baked in and he is still popular with a wide swath of the Democratic electorate. In fact, he's never been unpopular. He'll need a strong, young, probably female running mate. Trump, I think, is pretty much maxed out. He'll get the Republican vote, hands down (although his approval even there is down), but his standing among independents is eroding rapidly. Majority of independents oppose Trump reelection, undecided on 2020 Democrats: poll (Marist via npr)
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/31/19 03:10 PM
Apparently, The Mooch is predicting that Trump will drop out if the polls get too bad, and blame Fake News and the media. Sounds par for the course, at least for Trump Golf Rules!
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/31/19 03:26 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Apparently, The Mooch is predicting that Trump will drop out if the polls get too bad, and blame Fake News and the media. Sounds par for the course, at least for Trump Golf Rules!
I'll give Mooch this much credit: he knows Trump well enough to get under his skin.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/31/19 04:02 PM
I been tellin' y'all this for weeks.

Trump is un-electable.

I wouldn't trust those polls to be an accurate prediction of a future election but they're a snapshot of what's going on.

People Don't Like Trump. Even people who like him don't like him and wish he'd just shut the f*ck up.

When you poll a candidate(like Trump) who is universally disliked against a candidate(like Biden) who is liked by all, you're gonna get a result like this. It's non binding. An actual election wouldn't yield the same results. Biden would still win, but not by that margin.
Against Trump, a glass of water would win.

Republicans are embarrassed too. Hatrack wouldn't even talk about him.
Mumbled some platitude and went back to ruminating about the FFs. Our colleague in Massachusets says simply "he's not my cup of tea".

He's the candidate that nobody wants to have a beer with.

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/05/19 01:07 PM
Is Trump trying to lose in 2020?
Quote
Trump’s policies hit barely-red states hardest

As Thursday’s state-level figures suggest, the categorical eligibility smackdown is going to hit especially hard in four states where very narrow Trump wins in 2016 tilted the electoral college irrevocably in his favor.

Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23,000 votes last time. He’ll have dumped 118,000 Wisconsin residents off of food stamps by Election Day if the rule goes through as planned.

One in every nine people currently benefiting from SNAP in Michigan will be booted under the rule – roughly 165,000 men, women, and children in total. Trump won the state by just 10,704 votes last go round.

In Pennsylvania, which Trump carried by just under 47,000 votes, his food stamps cut will dump more than five times that many people off the food-aid rolls.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/05/19 04:48 PM
He never wanted to win in the first place. The whole campaign was just a publicity stunt for his hotel in the old post office building.

After eight stultifying years under Obama where nothing was ever accomplished due to the Republican blockade in Congress. Voters wanted to see some action in Washington.

So they strapped Trump with dynamite and elected him to do a job he couldn't do.

Hasn't been a boring moment since.

Originally Posted by Greger
So they strapped Trump with dynamite and elected him to do a job he couldn't do.

Hasn't been a boring moment since.

Are you sure about that?
I don't think the American people strapped anything onto Trump.
I am pretty sure Donald Trump tricked the Acme folks into loaning him the dynamite and he just SHOWED UP all strapped and ready to go.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/19 01:08 AM
I'd say it depends on what poll you're looking at. IBD/TIPP had Biden up by 12 over Trump, but Warren, Harris and Sanders all within the margin of error. Basically tied. Quinnipiac had all four with double digit leads over Trump. Emerson has Biden up by 8, Sanders by 4, Harris and Warren tied. With the margin of error of plus or minus four points.

Those are the three latest polls of head to head match ups against potential Democratic opponents to Trump. As you can see there is a huge difference in the polls.

Polls this far out in my opinion are basically meaningless. Historically in presidential races after we know who is facing whom. Romney had a 50-44 lead over Obama in May 2012. Kerry had a 50-44 lead in March 2004 and a 50-45 lead in July.

Now if you look at the latest generic presidential vote poll, 40% say Democratic candidate, 37% Trump. But of most interest to me is how independents stack up, Trump leads 29-26 over the generic democratic candidate. Question 43.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3gj4ffirhi/econTabReport.pdf

Independents make up approximately 40% of the electorate, how they vote is usually decisive in the general election. Just keep on eye on what independents are up to.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/19 01:43 AM
I'm an independent. I'm not pleased at all with the thought of Biden as the nominee or the president, but I'm kind of "middle of the road" so I'd rather have Warren than Sanders. But since I am independent I'm not allowed to vote in my state primary. My voice once again silenced by the authorities....
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/19 11:26 PM
I'm going to have a beer with Elizabeth Warren.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/19 11:27 PM
...which brings up the question, which candidate(s) would you like to have a beer with?
Originally Posted by logtroll
...which brings up the question, which candidate(s) would you like to have a beer with?

Oh, without a doubt the beer would have to be with Bernie, he definitely does have a sense of humor, you just have to be patient.
For instance, here he is, scaring the crap out of a Republican pundit on TV:

[Linked Image from media.giphy.com]

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/12/19 12:31 PM
Occasionally I listen to NPR. Yesterday had a segment on the top three dem candidates. The conversation confined itself to two of the three. ‘Electability’ and ‘likability ‘ were talked about and almost nothing else. As brain dead a political conversation as you could get. Almost on the scale of party leadership:

“A few hours later, Martin addressed thousands from the convention podium and — in more restrained tones — focused on blaming nonresponsive voters for the failures of Democratic candidates to inspire them. “In 2016 we had 10 percent of Democrats who voted for Donald Trump,” he said. “We had 53 percent of white women who voted for Donald Trump. We had a tripling of the third-party vote throughout our country. And probably most discouraging to me: as consistent Democratic base voters, people who always show up in elections, many of them didn’t show up to vote at all.”

A logical question would be: Why did many of them not show up to vote at all? But Martin wasn’t going there”

Full Article
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/12/19 12:54 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
...Why did many of them not show up to vote at all?...
That was me.

I didn't vote for several reasons. One being, that I moved to a new state in August 2016 and found it too difficult to get registered to vote. Secondly, I was not inspired to go vote or go through the hassle of registering to vote and figured that Hillary was going to win anyway.

Hmm
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/19 01:27 AM
Watching tonight’s debate. I find all ot these Democratic candidates to be worthy... except Biden.

Nine of them speak to the issues out of their minds, Biden speaks from talking points and “Obama”.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/17/19 01:00 PM
Trump at his Rio Rancho (Spanish name) New Mexico (more Spanish) rally yesterday:

"Who do you love more? Hispanics, or America?" ROTFMOL

I guess he's campaigning to lose even more bigley than in 2016 in NM...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/20/19 02:29 AM
“Sanders reached the milestone seven months after he announced his candidacy in February, faster than any candidate ever.”

Huh......

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/19 02:44 PM
Why not? Bout as useful. More entertaining than this Frat House bleacher row we have going on today.

I still believe the same thing:

Justice Lewis Powell "created" the divisiveness, but Rush Limbaugh made it accessible and understandable to the mouth-breathing yokel masses. Powell's memo was a vitriolic and yet scholarly work, while Limbaugh's show is "Powell" if you fed it to a pig, extracted the fecal matter and then reconstituted it into Powell flavored pablum.

It was the Powell Memo that gave birth and rise to the plethora of "think tanks", designed to churn out alternate realities and favorable cherry picked "data" to support the media packaged anger.

The Powell Memo is the "mein kampf" of the angry Right. Limbaugh's show is just a moveable Nuremberg Rally on the radio.
And Murdoch is his counterpart on TV.

And now their biggest media cheerleader on the radio has cancer.
Too bad he didn't get already sidelined by losing his hearing six years ago.

Look at the BILLIONS invested in supporting the angry "Powell" corporatist position. Forget parties, the Powell angry tribe has outspent all parties combined in the last forty years by several orders of magnitude.

And Chunk is right about the fact that some Dems lined up with their hands out for some of those billions too.

The Powell Memo worked well, beyond their wildest dreams.
Powell has ultimately led us to Trump, you can draw a bright red line from there to here.

Of course, almost anything can work well when you pump billions of dollars into it, unless you get too full of your own rhetoric and start actually believing your own bullsh!t.
And they have indeed reached that point, and that is why I am hoping to God the American people wake up to that fact.

And that is why I think pinning our hopes on a moderate is foolish, there are no "moderates" remaining in the opposition party to reach across to.
If Bernie or Warren can learn to package and market their message effectively, they will win decisively.

Somewhere in there, they need to force people to answer the question:

"Who are the "moderates" on the other side that a moderate Democrat can work with?"

Because I just don't see any.
Quote
"Who are the "moderates" on the other side that a moderate Democrat can work with?

Apparently, Romney. But that's about it. The other 98% of the Senate Republicans have opted to go down with the Titanic.

Buh bye!
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/12/20 07:53 PM
I suspect they might surface after Trump. The problem with that one is the 'after' part. I have now read a couple of articles on what might happen when he doesn't go and they actually seem likely. What really bothers me is who he may have in his pocket. He just got the army officer fired from the White House but that, apparently, was not enough. The current guy in charge of the armed forces said he would protect the guy fired but now, again apparently, Trump has somebody in the army to go after the army guy he forced out of the White House. This means he has a todie with power in the army which may mean he has more than one of them there. This tends to add to my already concern.

Trump may be an ignoramus, but he is not dumb but crafty, sneaky, and seems to win a lot more than he should.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/12/20 08:17 PM
You have finally said something I agree with. It’s been awhile.

The left has been sounding the slay about this guy but the media and liberal classes have indulged in viewing him as a buffoon (who remembers 2016 coverage?). Or a rissian tool (liberals have gone all in on the spook stories).

Nice to see more people take the fascist threat seriously. Doubt they’ll stop thwarting the candidate that has the best polls against Trump for months now.

Naw. They’ll give him his war budgets, stand and applaud fascist cia backed despots like Juan Guaidó openly in Congress. On the important stuff the Democratic Party is a capon.

But yeah. He’s got cleverness. Without a doubt.
Interesting campaign strategy:

Trump Cuts Federal Pay Raise

Trump boasts non-stop about how great the economy is doing. And yet:

Quote
Trump is justifying ordering the cut on the grounds that the country is in the midst of a “national emergency or serious economic conditions affecting the general welfare,” which the White House says authorizes the president to “implement alternative plans for pay adjustments.”
So which is it? The best economy in the history of economies or a national economic emergency? Either way, somebody’s lying.

He's decided to punish all Federal employees, maybe assuming none of them were going to vote for him. Well, now they won't!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/12/20 09:36 PM
Donald Trump might be called a lot of things.

He IS a lot of things.

You can preface them all with "cheapskate".

He's the third generation "Don" of a White Crime Family. Trump knows the art of the deal...when it comes to dirty dealing and backstabbing.

Acting like an idiot is part of the con...

What if he's autistic? An Aspy. An idiot savant of sorts and being a dictator is what he's a genius at.....
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/13/20 08:40 PM
My own suspicion is that he has been made aware that his spendthrift ways is building up a debt that can take everything down. So, he continues to claim that his tax cuts (a multi trillion dollar giveaway to to upper 5% and would pay for itself - a standard Republican claim that never happens and causes problems eventually) so now we have him trying to take care of it by destroying things like medicare, medicaid, social security, etc. His plans, with tariffs, which he claims the other countries pay into America, is another little effort to fix the debt. he has to support the military because he considers it HIS military and it will defend him if the natives get pushy. I actually believe that! I also believes that he actually believes that!

There have been any number of suggestions that he lives in a diffent reality. I believe that is the case. I also believe the man is insane as I do about those who are determined to support him no matter what. Not out of fear but out of love for their God, Donald the Great. That, incidentally scares the sh*t out of me! I am awaiting the time he goes with some trepidation. I am not convinced that is going to be easy to accomplish.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/13/20 09:46 PM
Quote
My own suspicion is that he has been made aware that his spendthrift ways is building up a debt that can take everything down.
I don't even know what the feck he's spending it on! Near as I can tell he's slashing revenues and funneling billions to billionaires without accomplishing a single thing. Basically just looting the treasury.

It's how he's always done business.

Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
My own suspicion is that he has been made aware that his spendthrift ways is building up a debt that can take everything down.
I don't even know what the feck he's spending it on! Near as I can tell he's slashing revenues and funneling billions to billionaires without accomplishing a single thing. Basically just looting the treasury.

It's how he's always done business.

Of course he's looting the Treasury.
That's what despotic tyrants always do! Ferdinand Marcos finally agreed to leave, but not before he emptied the banks.
Saddam looted his banks on the way out...Hitler stashed so much Nazi gold that it's still being found today.

It's a time honored tradition.
It really does seem like he's setting things up to take a powder between November and January. I wonder how all the trumptards are going to feel when he moves to Argentina.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
It really does seem like he's setting things up to take a powder between November and January. I wonder how all the trumptards are going to feel when he moves to Argentina.

Argentina? LOL ROTFMOL LOL
He's moving to Moscow, to be with his old buddy Steve.

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]
I think Buenos Ares is a lot more fun than Moscow. Moscow is pretty depressing. Really good Italian food. Lots of beef available. Hot babes. My former neighbors moved there to retire. (He was born there when his dad was stationed at the American embassy, so he had dual citizenship.) With the money from selling their Oregon house they bought a whole vineyard! They claim the free health care is great.

And Steven Seagal has lived in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana for a long time. He's been a fully commissioned Deputy Sheriff there for almost 20 years.
I see Trump is at it again:

Trump Sidelined Acting Spy Chief

He sacked his acting Director of National Intelligence when one of his underlings went and told the House Intel Committee that Russia was meddling again to get Trump reelected last Thursday. He was especially pissed that Adam Schiff heard the report. It was actually pretty moot, because the acting DNI had to go by March 12. But Trump took him out early to install a yes man as acting DNI.

Trump mostly uses acting positions so they don't have to be confirmed by the Senate. Which is pretty silly because the majority would line up to kiss his ass if he asked.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/20 12:46 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...Which is pretty silly because the majority would line up to kiss his ass if he asked.
They have their tongues so far up Trump's ass, they can taste what he had for dinner. Hmm
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/20 07:22 PM
I think the term "acting position" might not also refer to "acting" like in a play. I wonder if there is some organization that could award "actors" that work in the political field?
>kiss his ass

I was going to use a different expression, but I realized it was somewhat homophobic.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/21/20 11:49 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
I think the term "acting position" might not also refer to "acting" like in a play. I wonder if there is some organization that could award "actors" that work in the political field?
Amid all the sexual innuendo here I thought the "acting position" might be something from the Kama Sutra...

Is it possible to f*ck someone who's kissing your ass? Trump seems to be able to.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/22/20 12:39 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Originally Posted by jgw
I think the term "acting position" might not also refer to "acting" like in a play. I wonder if there is some organization that could award "actors" that work in the political field?
Amid all the sexual innuendo here I thought the "acting position" might be something from the Kama Sutra...

Is it possible to f*ck someone who's kissing your ass? Trump seems to be able to.
Would that be like an elongated reach-around? Hmm
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/22/20 01:47 AM
I've heard that the growth rate of some mushrooms is phenomenal.
Update on Trump's new pick for DNI: Besides being totally incompetent, turns out he will probably lose his security clearance for unregistered lobbying for an Eastern European strong man. This is one of the crimes Manafort is in prison for right now. Too bad Trump picked him! Now that people are looking at him he's going to lose his gig as ambassador to Germany.

I wonder if Congress could pass a law with veto-proof majorities just to prohibit filling positions without confirmation by the Senate. They might be crooks, but at least they are smart enough not to confirm the criminals Trump selects.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/22/20 04:52 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Update on Trump's new pick for DNI: Besides being totally incompetent...
So just like Trump... coffee


Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...turns out he will probably lose his security clearance for unregistered lobbying for an Eastern European strong man. This is one of the crimes Manafort is in prison for right now. Too bad Trump picked him! Now that people are looking at him he's going to lose his gig as ambassador to Germany.

I wonder if Congress could pass a law with veto-proof majorities just to prohibit filling positions without confirmation by the Senate. They might be crooks, but at least they are smart enough not to confirm the criminals Trump selects.
Welp, you know what "they" say...everything Fatass Trump touches turns to shyte. Hmm
I think it was shyte to begin with. But nobody noticed until Trump touched it. He seems to have a nose for such things.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/22/20 10:10 PM


Democratic Party: ‘what happens in Nevada stays in Nevada’

So I guess they don’t want another voting mishap like Iowa.
If I was to guess, they don’t want precinct captains posting their caucus results online when the numbers are different than the state numbers?

Just one possibility of many, unfortunately.

Actually, I'm beginning to wonder if it's so smart to vote for Bernie. I'm a Democrat, so "Socialist" or any of it's variations don't scare me. Most Democrats feel that way. But what about Independents? I've looked at some poll numbers and turns out Independents don't feel that way at all.

Quote
It won’t surprise you to hear that Democrats are far more willing than independents to support a socialist candidate. But you might be surprised by how much bigger the partisan gap is for a socialist than for other kinds of candidates. In a Gallup poll taken last month, Democrats didn’t differ much from independents in their stated willingness to vote for a black, female, gay, or atheist presidential nominee. For a Muslim nominee, the gap was more then 30 net percentage points. For a socialist, it was more than 60 points. Three-quarters of Democrats were willing to vote for a socialist. Most independents—and, consequently, most of the Gallup respondents—weren’t.

The Great Socialism Gap

The 2016 election had a slight edge for Democrats, but it's a lot more complex than "more Democrats than Republicans". 30-40% are actually Independents and Democrats can't win without them. If they are freaked out by socialism, Democrats will lose. And I have a distinct feeling that when Bernie is crowned as Democratic nominee, the Republicans (and the Russians) are going to make sure every Independent in America thinks he's a communist.

The real question will be: Will Independents vote for a communist or a crook? Because that's how each side will be portraying the other by November.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/20 01:24 PM
My gut reaction is not taking to much from a poll trying to predict what will be this far out.
There’s not much evidence they’ve been right.
Also, centrist Dem insider candidates typically lose in presidential election. Electability is another con in a pragmatic wrapper.
Carter, Clinton we’re outsiders with a whiff of populism.
Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry ran as establishment picks that wouldn’t offend Republican sensibilities. Ditto now very rich HRC.

There’s a lot of hand wringing by the establishment these days to slow Sanders roll. Get ready to watch them latch on to any evidence of his ‘unelectabity’ as he continues to grow his base and rallies.

Apparently, Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/20 06:15 PM
Quote
Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.

Among the punditry perhaps...but among the voters not so much. Trump hatred will overpower socialism fears when it comes down to brass tacks.

Polling seems to indicate that independents are predominantly right leaners. I suspect this is false or misleading at best. Perotista and I need to talk about this.

My issue with poll results are primarily that all polls are taken among people willing to take polls. And my theorem is that people who take polls skew older and more conservative. That's why Biden has ruled the national polls for months. That's why Bernie got stuck in the polls earlier in the race.

Now that the official polling has begun the numbers are changing. Skewing left of earlier polls as younger less conservative voters(who typically don't take polls) are making their voices heard.

Primary voters tend to skew older and more conservative as well, but something has gone wrong with the plan...Voters are feeling the Bern a lot more than people who take polls.

This feeds into my belief that independents are farther left than most imagine, and that Bernie has a massive following among independent millenials who are only going to vote if Bernie is the candidate. Once in the voting booth they will vote a straight blue ticket and help out the down ballot candidates. Bernie will pull more Z-Gen voters off the couch too.

That's how we take the Senate with Bernie! By getting voters out to vote who wouldn't otherwise. It's a vast pool to draw from.......

Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/20 06:38 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Primary voters tend to skew older and more conservative as well, but something has gone wrong with the plan...Voters are feeling the Bern a lot more than people who take polls.

It's only to be expected, with Trump jabbering about slashing SSI and Medicare.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/25/20 06:38 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Apparently, Blue no matter who has a lot of asterisk and fine print.

Of course it does. Would you vote blue if Bloomberg or Biden won the primary?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 07:35 AM
No. I never argued that self serving party B.S.

Now that there’s a clear unifying candidate that polls best head to head with Trump were also seeing the phonyness of the ‘I don’t care who wins the nomination as long as we beat Trump’ crowd.

Clearly, over the events of the last week, with millionaire media hacks and party leadership, that was all B.S. too.

Makes you wonder what the Democratic Party is all about or has become.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 02:01 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
No. I never argued that self serving party B.S.

See, I'm voting against Trump. It would be nice to have a socialist or socialist democratic candidate, but in the end, I am voting against Trump. Doesn't matter who they nominate.

ETA: Except Gabbard, because she's just Trump with better fashion sense.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 03:58 PM
Anyone but Trump. Sure.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be a winning play.

It wasn’t in 2016 when Democrats wanted him as an opponent in the general.
It’s obvious who would beat him now.

Yet here we are, with the party in full freak out mode to stop the guy.

The DNC helped bring you Trump. The DNC is working to keep Trump.





Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 05:14 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Anyone but Trump. Sure.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be a winning play.

Not if everyone is "Vote blue as long as it's my personal favorite", no.

But I can only cast my own vote, and deal with my own conscience.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 05:19 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Anyone but Trump. Sure.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be a winning play.

It wasn’t in 2016 when Democrats wanted him as an opponent in the general.
It’s obvious who would beat him now.

Yet here we are, with the party in full freak out mode to stop the guy.

The DNC helped bring you Trump. The DNC is working to keep Trump.
I don't know who would be the best candidate to beat Trump. All of them are in the negative when it comes for favorable/unfavorable ratings as is Trump.

Perhaps the question is, what are the voters looking for? Independents especially as it was Independents that gave Trump the White House. The general election certainly is a lot different than the primaries. Perhaps, like in 2016, most voters aren't happy with the choices being provided. We know for certain the majority aren't happy with Trump. But will they be happy or at least look at Trump being a bit worst than the Democrat, whoever that is?

Answers that can't be had until the Democrats choose a candidate. Then the numbers will tell the story. Was their choice right or wrong?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 05:26 PM
Quote
Perhaps the question is, what are the voters looking for?


What were they looking for in 2016?

Change.

What are they looking for now?

Change.

What won Obama the election in 2008?

Change.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 06:06 PM
Zackly.

It’s the Dem parties job to tell the voters why they can’t have reasonable public goods and services but can have drone strikes and tax cuts for the aristocrats.

Good work if you can get it. Pays well for doing nothing for people and demobilizing voters.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 06:44 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Zackly.

It’s the Dem parties job to tell the voters why they can’t have reasonable public goods and services but can have drone strikes and tax cuts for the aristocrats.

Good work if you can get it. Pays well for doing nothing for people and demobilizing voters.

What's awesome about this entire thing is that I honestly believe you'll be bitterly disappointed if Sanders wins the nomination.
I think Sanders WILL win the nomination. Then the big challenge will be to convince the Independents that "change" means deserting Trump. And also that President Bernie will not be able to wreck the economy because a Democratic congress won't ever let that happen.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 09:06 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Perhaps the question is, what are the voters looking for?


What were they looking for in 2016?

Change.

What are they looking for now?

Change.

What won Obama the election in 2008?

Change.

I would add anger or disappointment if that works. The recession, continuous wars. Yes, voters were ready for a change, also angry at the Republicans which was first seen in 2006 when the Democrats took back the House and senate.

2016, the voters did change who controlled the house and senate already. I would say 2010 was an anger year for Obama and company not listening to the voters. 2014, so many close elections in which the GOP won 5 of 7. Also the Democrats were defending 21 senators to 15 for the GOP. Also traditional Republican states who had elected Democrats six years earlier went back to their traditional roots, Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia.

2020, change maybe. But is it change for change sake or are the voters mad at something, someone? I don't think the voters were mad at Obama or even the Democrats in 2016. Just utterly disappointed in their choices. Two candidate most didn't want.

Are the voters mad at Trump? The Democrats sure are, but what about independents? The ones who gave Trump the white house to begin with? As of today 38% of independents view Trump favorably, 52% unfavorably. When Trump won the independent vote in 2016, independents viewed him 40% favorably, 57% unfavorably. Really no change there. So perhaps it's all about how independents view who the Democrats nominate as to how they will vote. In 2016 Hillary was viewed 27% favorably, 70% unfavorably by independents.

Whoever is the Democratic nominee, I sure think would have better numbers than Hillary. But I've been wrong before.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 09:38 PM
Quote
I would add anger or disappointment if that works.
Anger and disappointment are certainly things that would make you want to vote for change. Fear is another.

A lot of people are angry, disappointed, and afraid of Trump winning a second term. Some of them are Republicans. Bernie's early lead says there's excitement on the left...excitement...another reason to vote for change.

I just heard that Biden is currently up by 18 points in South Carolina. Apparently the debate broke his way and spooked off some of Bernie's support.

Let's see if Bernie outperforms the polls. I'm betting he will.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 10:02 PM
Quote
I honestly believe you'll be bitterly disappointed if Sanders wins the nomination.

Is that because you think Trump will handily thump Sanders in the general election? Or because Sanders will win but find no success for his agenda?

I dunno about Chunks but I'm perfectly okay with either of these outcomes.
Just getting a progressive candidate nominated would be a BFD.

Getting one into the White House even bigger.

Expecting actual change might be asking more than the fates are willing to offer. A few small changes would be nice but not completely necessary. Electing Bernie would be a bit like re-arranging the stage before the next act. It's not really about Bernie you know. It's about the rest of us.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/26/20 10:09 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I honestly believe you'll be bitterly disappointed if Sanders wins the nomination.

Is that because you think Trump will handily thump Sanders in the general election? Or because Sanders will win but find no success for his agenda?

Neither. I think it's because he's happier explaining why the dems are all assholes than he would be if he got what he wanted.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I honestly believe you'll be bitterly disappointed if Sanders wins the nomination.

Is that because you think Trump will handily thump Sanders in the general election? Or because Sanders will win but find no success for his agenda?

I dunno about Chunks but I'm perfectly okay with either of these outcomes.
Just getting a progressive candidate nominated would be a BFD.

Getting one into the White House even bigger.

Expecting actual change might be asking more than the fates are willing to offer. A few small changes would be nice but not completely necessary. Electing Bernie would be a bit like re-arranging the stage before the next act. It's not really about Bernie you know. It's about the rest of us.

Earlier a friend of mine said that NO ONE can beat Trump because he looks bigger on the debate stage.
"He's taller than all the Democrats"
Oh well, no point in even running any candidates, I guess ROTFMOL

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/20 02:36 AM
whoops, my bad Hamish.

I’ll sit back and listen. Seems like I’ve hit a nerve with you.

Feel free to take a political position. Who knows what it’ll be.
If any Democrat takes the Presidency and congress goes Democratic, too, you most certainly will see some major changes. You won't see a massive shift to the left, even if Bernie wins. But I predict you will see massive voter reform including restoration of the Voting Rights Act. You would almost surely see lots of fixes to ACA, including a public option at the least. You would certainly see our foreign relations and immigration policy restored to sanity.

Even Trump's Chief of Staff told a meeting in Englad the other day that we are desperate for immigrants to fill low-paying jobs. I think that would take the form of a Farm Labor temporary work program.
Quote
He's taller...

Well, certainly fatter!
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I think Sanders WILL win the nomination. Then the big challenge will be to convince the Independents that "change" means deserting Trump. And also that President Bernie will not be able to wreck the economy because a Democratic congress won't ever let that happen.

The new playtoy of the media is "down-ballot damage" from a Bernie candidacy. The idea is that a Bernie win is so toxic that people would rather have four more years of Trump rather than help the raging Castro-hugging commie.

They'd rather abandon both chambers of Congress rather than see Bernie get in the White House. The Soviet National Anthem will blare from every TV set in the nation.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/20 03:17 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I would add anger or disappointment if that works.
Anger and disappointment are certainly things that would make you want to vote for change. Fear is another.

A lot of people are angry, disappointed, and afraid of Trump winning a second term. Some of them are Republicans. Bernie's early lead says there's excitement on the left...excitement...another reason to vote for change.

I just heard that Biden is currently up by 18 points in South Carolina. Apparently the debate broke his way and spooked off some of Bernie's support.

Let's see if Bernie outperforms the polls. I'm betting he will.

Either the debate broke Biden's way or blacks are returning to him. On 1 Feb Biden had a 18 point lead over Sanders in South Carolina. That shrunk to 3 points on 21 Feb. Blacks, Biden's strength fell from 55% support on 1 Feb down to 37% on 21 Feb. Biden probably regained most of the blacks he had lost back after the debate. Biden's lead is now 11 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...emocratic_presidential_primary-6824.html

I don't have the updated figures yet, but on 21 Feb among blacks in South Carolina, Biden was the choice of 37%, Steyer 24% and Sanders 17%. Among whites it was Sanders 47%, Warren 24%, Biden 18%.

Blacks are especially important in South Carolina as in 2016 they made up 57% of all the Democratic Primary vote. This may set up a pattern to be followed on Super Tuesday, where there are a lot of black voters, the south, Biden does very good in those states, Sanders not so good. Where the state is mostly white, it's Sanders all the way.

We'll see, It all depends whether or not Biden has regained his once very high black support.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/27/20 03:46 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I’ll sit back and listen. Seems like I’ve hit a nerve with you.

Don't flatter yourself.

Quote
Feel free to take a political position. Who knows what it’ll be.

I have. Repeatedly. I will be voting for Sanders.
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I’ll sit back and listen. Seems like I’ve hit a nerve with you.

Don't flatter yourself.

Quote
Feel free to take a political position. Who knows what it’ll be.

I have. Repeatedly. I will be voting for Sanders.

I'll vote for him in the upcoming primary, and I've sent him what little I could afford to send, but if it boils down to someone else when it is all said and done, I'll adapt if I have to.
Karen and I cannot afford four more years of this crap.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 03:36 AM
The Democratic Party is interfering in the elections with the most popular candidate.
I wouldn’t expect Sanders supporters to come out to vote.
Without that large support it’s doubtful they’ll win in the general.
You’ll be voting for a party that sabotages itself.

An interesting problem.
New Rules
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 05:16 AM
The Native American woman candidate is shading the truth. Again.

She’s relying on ignorance of her base with those 2016 rules negotiations to put that description of ‘Sanders’ position regarding those rules. They wanted the Super delegates GONE!

But it gives her supporters the permission to support an illiberal voting arrangement.

Doesn’t change the situation of the party willing to give Trump another 4 years than to give citizens health care and a pay raise. At this point, Warren is part of that effort.

American prisons are full of people on account of Liberal ‘rules’. Another reason I despise Liberals.








Originally Posted by chunkstyle
The Native American woman candidate is shading the truth. Again.

She’s relying on ignorance of her base with those 2016 rules negotiations to put that description of ‘Sanders’ position regarding those rules. They wanted the Super delegates GONE!

But it gives her supporters the permission to support an illiberal voting arrangement.

Doesn’t change the situation of the party willing to give Trump another 4 years than to give citizens health care and a pay raise. At this point, Warren is part of that effort.

American prisons are full of people on account of Liberal ‘rules’. Another reason I despise Liberals.

You'll have to back that claim up.
I too would love to have never seen any kind of super-anything but the new rules were Bernie's.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 06:04 AM
Warren makes the claim that the delegate rule changes, as they now exist, were what sanders wanted.

It’s what got negotiated by three parties as I recall. It’s what the Sanders team had to settle for. The issues of open primaries and same day registration pushed by Sanders camp, to broaden party membership, was largely ignored.

2016 was so fraudulent and illiberal with superdelegates throwing in with Clinton most everyone wanted them gone. What got negotiated is different than what was wanted.




Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 06:11 AM
She’s just giving her liberal tribe a rational to justify the ratf#cking she’s currently taking part in. It’s the same rationalizing that they were doing in 2016.

Again, I mentioned this months ago as a possibility. If o look hard I could probably find it but I’m too lazy to look.



Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 01:44 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
The Democratic Party is interfering in the elections with the most popular candidate.
I wouldn’t expect Sanders supporters to come out to vote.
Without that large support it’s doubtful they’ll win in the general.
You’ll be voting for a party that sabotages itself.

An interesting problem.

I think the DNC should have learned from 2016 that interfering with the primaries in Hillary's favor is one of the reasons she lost. Angry Sanders supporters. Who knows how many stayed home because of that, we do know that the Democratic base voted for Hillary 89-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party. Sanders supporters voted for Hillary by a 75-12 margin over Trump, but with a huge 13% opting for third party candidates. Here's a Newsweek article on that.

BERNIE SANDERS VOTERS HELPED TRUMP WIN AND HERE'S PROOF

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-2016-election-654320

I wouldn't if I were the DNC try for a repeat in 2020.

Sanders is indeed the most popular, so far. With three primaries and caucuses down Sanders has 27.4% of the Democratic Primary vote cast so far. Buttigieg has 22.2%, Klobuchar 16.0%, Warren 12.8%, Biden 12.3% with the rest in single digits. Sanders leads in delegates with 45 to Buttigieg 25, Biden 15, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7. None of the rest has any delegates.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

The only caveat I would add to Sanders being the most popular candidates is that Sanders has won three mostly white states, blacks haven't had a chance to be heard yet. Blacks in 2016 made up a third of the Democratic primary voters. Nationwide white democratic primary voters prefer Sanders 30-18 over Warren, Biden 14%, Buttigieg 12% and Bloomberg who hasn't entered any primaries yet at 9%. Blacks on the other had support Biden 37-24% over Sanders as of 25 Feb. But looking at South Carolina it seems Biden who at one time, 1 Feb had the support of 55% of blacks, is regaining their support. We'll see once the vote in South Carolina is in whether Biden is or isn't regaining black support.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 01:56 PM
The rules are and were clearly stated. To get nominated on the first ballot, you need 50%+1. That's not how I would have arranged it (Plurality would do), but the time to holler about this was prior to the primaries beginning. AFAIK, they can't change the rules after the primaries have begun.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 02:34 PM
Nobody’s arguing the understanding of the rules.
The guy asking Warren the question had a valid question.
S’funny how libs love rules to avoid the moral and ethical dilemmas.
She keeps framing it as Sanders rules, basically. That’s not true. It’s what the three parties negotiated to.
She’s doing what she does and snaking Sanders by her mischaracterization of the rules being his.

Does any Warren fans remember her superdelegate position and public comments after 2016? What’s changed from 2016 Warren and today’s Warren?

No? Doesn’t matter? The question was a valid one. How do you justify an illiberal process.

Nothing more dangerous than liberals and their rules.


Speaks to her
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 02:40 PM
There is always a sorting out of voters when there preferred primary candidate calls it quits. Sanders voters defected no more than any other previous primary voter whose candidate called it quits.
The exception was Hillary supporters in 2008. They broke in larger numbers for Romney rather than vote for Obama. Telling of the Clinton coalition.

Sanders supporters were then and still are being made the scapegoats of a thoroughly corrupt and incompetent party’s chosen nominee.

Did you get that- party’s chosen nominee.

But but but the rules.....
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 02:50 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
There is always a sorting out of voters when there preferred primary candidate calls it quits. Sanders voters defected no more than any other previous primary voter whose candidate called it quits.
The exception was Hillary supporters in 2008. They broke in larger numbers for Romney rather than vote for Obama. Telling of the Clinton coalition.

Sanders supporters were then and still are being made the scapegoats of a thoroughly corrupt and incompetent party’s chosen nominee.

Did you get that- party’s chosen nominee.

But but but the rules.....

It makes me wonder why he is running as a democrat at all, if they are that incompetent and horrible.

BUT BUT BUT MUH SOCIAL DEMOCRACIES.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 03:15 PM
The national rules set up by both political monopolies that eliminate third party prospects.

But you weren’t being serious were you?

Though many felt, myself included, sanders should have run on a third party ticket. He would have had enough support to get on most of the ballots.

Liberals running the party will not stop the rightward authoritarian drift. They’ve had 40 years to do that.
I think the party is beyond reforming myself. Sanders doesn’t think so apparently.



Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 03:30 PM
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
It makes me wonder why he is running as a democrat at all, if they are that incompetent and horrible.

BUT BUT BUT MUH SOCIAL DEMOCRACIES.


I give you 2016 as evidence of incompetence and corruption.

All the deflection and excuses they made for losing aside, how much do you like having Trump your president?

Never went to Michigan.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 04:38 PM
“WILLIAM OWEN, a Tennessee-based Democratic National Committee member backing an effort to use so-called superdelegates to select the party’s presidential nominee — potentially subverting the candidate with the most voter support — is a Republican donor and health care lobbyist.”

DNC SUPERDELEGATE PROMOTING BROKERED CONVENTION IS A SIGNIFICANT GOP DONOR, HEALTH CARE LOBBYIST

Well this is awkward news
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 04:39 PM
BUT BUT BUT DUH RUSSIANS!
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 05:46 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
All the deflection and excuses they made for losing aside, how much do you like having Trump your president?

I like it less than you do.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 05:47 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
BUT BUT BUT DUH RUSSIANS!

I am glad we have established how our conversations will go forward from this point.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 06:09 PM
I think it's been this way for awhile now, wouldn't you agree?

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 06:30 PM
I think all this is about Bernie the NON Democrat? I also think that the actual Democrats have had enough and are prepared to see the far left go away. Why not? If they don't get their way they go away anyway and cannot be counted on. I am equally sure that Bernie is unlikely to get any of his plans legislated. He has been trying, for over 10 years to get something done and has failed. As president I suspect it would be exactly the same.
Originally Posted by jgw
I think all this is about Bernie the NON Democrat? I also think that the actual Democrats have had enough and are prepared to see the far left go away. Why not? If they don't get their way they go away anyway and cannot be counted on. I am equally sure that Bernie is unlikely to get any of his plans legislated. He has been trying, for over 10 years to get something done and has failed. As president I suspect it would be exactly the same.

I don't see Bernie as "far Left" considering that I grew up in a time when a lot of his ideas were in place. Healthcare was nonprofit...I don't think it was even legal to profit off healthcare insurance back then. Higher education at state and community college was either free or couch change, union membership was commonplace, and even a minimum wage worker could afford a roof of some kind over their head.

Far Left? Bernie would be center-Right in most EU countries, so calling him "Far Left" is nothing more than a testament as to how far to the Right we've been dragged.

So to me, all this sound and fury amounts to "We can't have nice things because people believe Far Right Republican shibboleths."
I do not accept the shibboleth of red-scare paranoia without question.

The trouble is, I am painfully aware of the fact that said shibboleth is backed by billions of dollars in structural and psychological reinforcement. I am painfully aware that I feel like I am screaming at a tornado, such is the good it will produce.
And my lungs are petered out from so much screaming.

The tornado doesn't give two sh!ts what I have to say.
"We can't have nice things."

Oh and, the "He's not a Democrat" thing, it's bullsh!t.
That's been proven to me in spades now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 06:58 PM
Nicely said.
I'm arguing that republican Shibboleths have now become Democratic ones s'all.

By the way, Bloomberg just hired the Democratic party's vice-chair's of Texas and California.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 07:05 PM
Interesting, apparently you think that Bernie IS A DEMOCRAT! Even Bernie has said he is not a Democrat and has refused to join that party. He has, basically, refused to join the Socialist party and the Democratic party. He is, in other words, an Independent!

This is how he has run for almost 30 years. That has not changed, nor has his cant changed. He has stuck to his guns with very little wiggle room.

What is interesting is that it seems that the Democratic party has actually decided to actually grow a pair, and actually support the political party that they actually have signed up and joined. They are, in theory, only going to support those Candidates that are actually members of their party. This, all by itself, is one of the political marvels of the age. The fact, however, is that I will believe it when I see it and I haven't seen it yet.

I am not, incidentally, a member of the Democratic party and consider myself yet another independent. In the coming presidential election I am going to vote with the Democrats because I want Trump gone and I think that is really important for the entire nation.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Nicely said.
I'm arguing that republican Shibboleths have now become Democratic ones s'all.

By the way, Bloomberg just hired the Democratic party's vice-chair's of Texas and California.

And I'm arguing that tossing ourselves like lemmings over the cliff because we don't wind up with the candidate we like best is a repeat of the self immolation of 2016. Electing more AOC's and the like and turning the establishment Dems out to pasture is how we will bring about change to the party.
Simply put, if the Dem establishment refuses to be responsive, and we have the better numbers, then we need to put those numbers to use, not run away and sulk.

I like Bernie, I want Bernie, but I will not sacrifice myself in the fire of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson" for not agreeing with me.
To me, stopping Trump is the top priority. I can live to fight another day with Trump gone.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 09:05 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I think it's been this way for awhile now, wouldn't you agree?

You wouldn't have it any other way.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 09:07 PM
Quote
I think the party is beyond reforming myself. Sanders doesn’t think so apparently.

The party is beyond reforming but it isn't beyond destroying and rebuilding.

There are no laws or even any moral obligation for The Party to play fair. Either Party.

The goals of The Party are not the goals of the people.

Voters have input but they do not have control.

When you started this thread I wouldn't have given Bernie a Popsicle's chance in Muspelheim of getting a single delegate.

Now it looks like he might very well be our next president.

I'm pretty excited about this and, win or lose, this is going to be an election for the history books.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 09:07 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
I like Bernie, I want Bernie, but I will not sacrifice myself in the fire of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson" for not agreeing with me.

But that seems to be the entire strategy of a sizable portion of the left.

Demand instant perfection or throw a tantrum and demand that the population be punished.

This doesn't attract converts, it makes enemies. But you get to look really dramatic doing it.
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
I like Bernie, I want Bernie, but I will not sacrifice myself in the fire of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson" for not agreeing with me.

But that seems to be the entire strategy of a sizable portion of the left.

Demand instant perfection or throw a tantrum and demand that the population be punished.

This doesn't attract converts, it makes enemies. But you get to look really dramatic doing it.

You mean it "makes you look like a revolutionary"?
Yeah, I'm guessing it might even get you laid, if you have the right armbands.

Quote
“Jenny, things got a little out of hand...it's just this war, and that lying son of a bitch Johnson!”
[Linked Image from betterangelsnow.com]

I'm definitely not Forrest Gump, but I'm sure as sh!t not Wesley either.

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Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 11:07 PM
I went through all the polls for the Super Tuesday states, I wrote down the leader in each. I’ve been wondering if Biden has a good showing in South Carolina Saturday, if by Monday that might change some of the dynamics for Super Tuesday. As of 28 Feb, here are the leaders in the super Tuesday States and the percentage points ahead. I’m doing this because I seen Biden who was ahead in South Carolina by just 2 points over Sanders on 22 Feb has pulled out to an 18-point lead today.

Alabama Biden 21
Arkansas Bloomberg 1
California Sanders 20
Colorado Sanders 15
Maine Sanders 5
Massachusetts Sanders 5
North Carolina Biden 1
Oklahoma Bloomberg 3
Tennessee Biden 10
Texas Sanders 5
Utah Sanders 9
Vermont Sanders 38
Virginia Sanders 3

See you on 2 Mar.
Posted By: danarhea Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/28/20 11:19 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I went through all the polls for the Super Tuesday states, I wrote down the leader in each. I’ve been wondering if Biden has a good showing in South Carolina Saturday, if by Monday that might change some of the dynamics for Super Tuesday. As of 28 Feb, here are the leaders in the super Tuesday States and the percentage points ahead. I’m doing this because I seen Biden who was ahead in South Carolina by just 2 points over Sanders on 22 Feb has pulled out to an 18-point lead today.

Alabama Biden 21
Arkansas Bloomberg 1
California Sanders 20
Colorado Sanders 15
Maine Sanders 5
Massachusetts Sanders 5
North Carolina Biden 1
Oklahoma Bloomberg 3
Tennessee Biden 10
Texas Sanders 5
Utah Sanders 9
Vermont Sanders 38
Virginia Sanders 3

See you on 2 Mar.

Not sure if the South Carolina result will change Tuesday's outcome. The majority of people have already early voted in most of those states.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 12:13 AM
Sanders leading in eight of thirteen states. And I expect him to outperform polls across the board if his campaign has indeed gone viral. A SOCIALISM virus if you will. Sweeping the nation like the proverbial pandemic. The Coronavirus of campaigns. The Black Death of Democrats.The entire Party painted with a big red S.

Bolshevik Bernie. Fighting for school lunch debt forgiveness and other Soviet Era government takeovers.
Originally Posted by Greger
Sanders leading in eight of thirteen states. And I expect him to outperform polls across the board if his campaign has indeed gone viral. A SOCIALISM virus if you will. Sweeping the nation like the proverbial pandemic. The Coronavirus of campaigns. The Black Death of Democrats.The entire Party painted with a big red S.

Bolshevik Bernie. Fighting for school lunch debt forgiveness and other Soviet Era government takeovers.

Just hold fast and vote D all the way down ticket.
Bring Trumpism crashing down like the million tons of manure that it is.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I think the party is beyond reforming myself. Sanders doesn’t think so apparently.

The party is beyond reforming but it isn't beyond destroying and rebuilding.

There are no laws or even any moral obligation for The Party to play fair. Either Party.

The goals of The Party are not the goals of the people.

Voters have input but they do not have control.

When you started this thread I wouldn't have given Bernie a Popsicle's chance in Muspelheim of getting a single delegate.

Now it looks like he might very well be our next president.

I'm pretty excited about this and, win or lose, this is going to be an election for the history books.

I find it infinitely wiser to torch the Democratic Party WHILE Democrats hold majorities and the White House.
It doesn't seem to do much good when they're out of power across the board. Once they are IN power, their tenure can be threatened and since they don't want to lose again, they tend to respond.

It's similar to a pissed off mom saying,
"I brought your dumb ass into this world and I can take you back out!"

Let's review a little history here: In 2016, Hillary had more delegates than Sanders, WITHOUT counting the super-delegates. So the people who voted spoke. Bernie did not have the votes. You can't say the DNC machinations created her votes or subtracted from Bernie's. They may have influenced people to vote for Hillary, but after all that's what everybody does before elections. I'm sure Bernie's supporters were out there trying to get people to vote for him, and he was spending money to influence people.

If Bernie gets as many delegates as it looks like he will get, he's going to be the Democratic nominee. If the Covid-19 pandemic is as bad as it looks like it will be, I think the candidate promoting health care for all is going to win in a landslide over the asshat who lies about it being "like a cold".
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 12:29 AM
Originally Posted by danarhea
Originally Posted by perotista
I went through all the polls for the Super Tuesday states, I wrote down the leader in each. I’ve been wondering if Biden has a good showing in South Carolina Saturday, if by Monday that might change some of the dynamics for Super Tuesday. As of 28 Feb, here are the leaders in the super Tuesday States and the percentage points ahead. I’m doing this because I seen Biden who was ahead in South Carolina by just 2 points over Sanders on 22 Feb has pulled out to an 18-point lead today.

Alabama Biden 21
Arkansas Bloomberg 1
California Sanders 20
Colorado Sanders 15
Maine Sanders 5
Massachusetts Sanders 5
North Carolina Biden 1
Oklahoma Bloomberg 3
Tennessee Biden 10
Texas Sanders 5
Utah Sanders 9
Vermont Sanders 38
Virginia Sanders 3

See you on 2 Mar.

Not sure if the South Carolina result will change Tuesday's outcome. The majority of people have already early voted in most of those states.

I don't know if they will or won't. But being a numbers guy, I'm interested it that. I hadn't considered early voting. Most of the time I had voted there was no such thing. Showing my age there. I'm just interested in the trends. Is South Carolina alone or is the trend spreading? That is what I want to find out.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 12:32 AM
Democrats have been attacking the left for decades now.
You feel threatened? Join the club.

The party has decided if they can’t use superdelegates until second round vote, then they will assure a second round vote.

It makes no matter to Bernie or bust crowd. Libs have been scapegoating them for the 2016 loss. As well as Comey, Russia, Cambridge analytics, etc, etc

You lose any leverage you have when you assure a political party your vote. Good look with mythical remaking the Democratic party if they’ve regained power. You gave them what they needed. They will forget you after elections if history is a guide.

Your idea seems backwards to the very concept of democracy. Sounds more like the rational of an abused spouse.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 12:51 AM
Quote
I like Bernie, I want Bernie, but I will not sacrifice myself in the fire of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson" for not agreeing with me.
So not voting the way you think I should is "sacrificing myself in the fires of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson""?

Why can't I just vote or not vote for whichever candidate I please? Even if The Party f*cks my favorite candidate seven ways from Sunday and inserts their favorite neo-liberal billionaire candidate into the race, you believe that for some reason I...not even a member of the party...owe the party my vote?

Maybe you need to be trying to convince Republicans to vote blue. You'll stand a better chance with that than getting me to vote for Biden or Bloomberg.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I like Bernie, I want Bernie, but I will not sacrifice myself in the fire of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson" for not agreeing with me.
So not voting the way you think I should is "sacrificing myself in the fires of retribution to "teach everyone a lesson""?

Why can't I just vote or not vote for whichever candidate I please? Even if The Party f*cks my favorite candidate seven ways from Sunday and inserts their favorite neo-liberal billionaire candidate into the race, you believe that for some reason I...not even a member of the party...owe the party my vote?

Maybe you need to be trying to convince Republicans to vote blue. You'll stand a better chance with that than getting me to vote for Biden or Bloomberg.

Nothing of the kind, Greger. I am just explaining why I cannot do it.
If Bernie wins, he gets my vote.
If a glass of lukewarm water wins, it gets my vote.
Right now, getting rid of Trump trumps everything else, he is a cancer on my life and the lives of my wife and kids.

We will not survive four more years of him...or even four more years of Mitch McConnell's stranglehold on the Senate.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 01:34 AM
History shows that those who identify or associate themselves with either the Republican or the Democratic Party will vote for their party's candidate 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is. Neither party's base is large enough for either party to ignore independents, although it seems both try like the dickens lately.

It wasn't Democrats that caused Hillary's loss, it was independents who went to Trump. It wasn't Republicans that caused either McCain nor Romney to lose, they lost the independent vote. Big in 2008. G.W. Bush won independents and won twice as did Bill Clinton.

Personally, I owe no allegiance to any political party. I vote candidates and sometimes I vote against both major party candidates because I don't like either one, ALA 2016.

Each of us has our own reasons why we vote the way we do. That reason may seem asinine and insane to quite a lot of folks, but it is important to me, to any voter. When the Democrats decide who their nominee will be, then I'll decide who I'll vote for or perhaps against. Party's mean absolutely nothing to me, but candidates mean everything.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 01:42 AM
if you haven’t already, read the Podesta emails and we’ll talk.
Also, when did the DNC become the arbiter of who gets to become the nominee?
I thought it was the voters who get to decide while the corporation stays neutral.

Your argument misses some very big problems of the 2016 primary that have only festered within the party.

Ben Warren recognized the problems when she was on the record regarding superdelegates:

“Massachusetts State Democratic Convention in Lowell on Saturday, Senator Elizabeth Warren sided with Bernie Sanders in the ongoing fight over superdelegates in the Democratic primary.
Sanders hopes to defy odds with turnout: 'California loves a comeback'
“I’m a superdelegate,” Warren said, “and I don’t believe in superdelegates.”

Way back machine

She seems to have changed her mind since.
Originally Posted by Greger
Maybe you need to be trying to convince Republicans to vote blue. You'll stand a better chance with that than getting me to vote for Biden or Bloomberg.

That's happening too.
I linked to it in another thread.
There are Republicans, seems like a growing number, who are heeding Max Boot and other Never Trumpers, who have decided that they would rather have ANY Democrat, even Bernie, in office, than have a continuation of the current POTUS and his rubber stamp Reichstag.

And this is nothing new either, because as you know, Barry Goldwater's last communique to his party went like this:

"Do not associate my name with anything you do. You are extremists, and you've hurt the Republican party much more than the Democrats have."

I'm not God nor do I play him on TV but I would wager that Mr. Goldwater would be on the side of Max Boot.
Quote
The party has decided if they can’t use superdelegates until second round vote, then they will assure a second round vote.

And exactly how would they do that? If Bernie has the votes there will be no second round. Nobody can "assure a second round". States are very transparent with voting results these days. If somebody tried to change the totals if would be obvious to way too many people to fly.

I suspect unfounded paranoia.
Posted By: Ken Condon Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 01:58 AM
Party's mean absolutely nothing to me, but candidates mean everything.

Well stated perotista. I could not have phrased that better myself if I had tried.

I don’t post much here anymore as I feel I have already stated pretty much what I believe. And how I view the world. But I lurk and am keeping on eye on you folks.

cool

Carry on...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 02:11 AM
Quote
We will not survive four more years of him.

We may not have a choice. If Bernie is the voters favorite and the party pulls the rug out from under him we might very well get four more years of him. If Bernie gets the nomination and the blue no matter who crowd rejects him we might get four more years of him.
If Republicans and JGW are right and Bernie can not beat Trump because he's a socialist...we will get four more years of him.

I think Bernie's gonna win the nomination handily and just as handily defeat Trump in November. So the next question is...

Will we survive four years of Bernie Sanders? Will Bernie Sanders survive four more years? Will any of us survive four more years...?





Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 02:33 AM
Originally Posted by Ken Condon
Party's mean absolutely nothing to me, but candidates mean everything.

Well stated perotista. I could not have phrased that better myself if I had tried.

I don’t post much here anymore as I feel I have already stated pretty much what I believe. And how I view the world. But I lurk and am keeping on eye on you folks.

cool

Carry on...
I thank you. I do a lot of just hanging around too. I'll post an interesting article or some poll numbers to see how folks will respond, if they do. I like to study the numbers and watch trends develop. There could be a very interesting one taking shape which after Super Tuesday, I'll know if it is or isn't.

Numbers can be very telling if one pays attention to them. Not so much for the numbers themselves, but for the trends they point out.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 02:45 AM
Quote
Not so much for the numbers themselves, but for the trends they point out.

I don't watch the numbers as much as I watch the trends themselves. My goal is to spot the trends before the polls do.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
We will not survive four more years of him.

We may not have a choice. If Bernie is the voters favorite and the party pulls the rug out from under him we might very well get four more years of him. If Bernie gets the nomination and the blue no matter who crowd rejects him we might get four more years of him.
If Republicans and JGW are right and Bernie can not beat Trump because he's a socialist...we will get four more years of him.

I think Bernie's gonna win the nomination handily and just as handily defeat Trump in November. So the next question is...

Will we survive four years of Bernie Sanders? Will Bernie Sanders survive four more years? Will any of us survive four more years...?

We'll survive ANYONE better than we will survive Trump.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 01:23 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Not so much for the numbers themselves, but for the trends they point out.

I don't watch the numbers as much as I watch the trends themselves. My goal is to spot the trends before the polls do.
I'm in total agreement. This is why I'm watching South Carolina. The trend there from 1 Feb through 22 Feb was all Sanders. Since 22 Feb it's been all Biden. The question is, is this trend limited to South Carolina with its huge black vote in the democratic primary or is it a beginning nationwide.

Right now it has the look that blacks are returning to Biden to the point where he had 55% support among them nationally on 1 Feb. Whites continue to flock to Sanders. So the effect could be limited to states with a large black democratic primary vote.

We'll know more after South Carolina and Super Tuesday if that is happening. Watch South Carolina, Alabama, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee. What I've been seeing nationally is Sanders is extra strong among whites, strong among Hispanics, weak among blacks.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 02/29/20 05:30 PM
Interesting stats on 3 big Super Tuesday States. This is as of this AM.

Texas Blacks 39-21 for Biden
Hispanics 27-23 Sanders
Whites 30-19 Sanders

Virginia Blacks 37-18 Biden
Whites 23-10 Sanders
No Hispanic breakdown

North Carolina Blacks 36-16 Biden
Whites 30-18 Sanders
Hispanics 26-8 Sanders

It'll be interesting to see the exit polls for these 3 states. It seems as of this AM that the White/Hispanic coalition should lead Sanders to the nomination if it holds up.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/02/20 12:37 AM


Pete is out. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/02/20 05:20 AM

Bernie will take Virginia and Texas on Super Tuesday. You heard it here first. Bow

Bernie will also take CA, CO, and WI. smile
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/02/20 11:44 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Pete is out. Hmm

Yea, he needs more time in the oven and a Governorship and then he'll be back and be a strong contender. Hope to see that.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/02/20 06:54 PM


Amy just dropped-out. Will endorse ol' Joe.

Hmm
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 02:44 AM
Warren looks set to be the spoiler now. No path to victory. Undermining her loyalty to progressive causes.
If you can believe she ever was. Her contemporary and colleague, Drucilla Cornells’ spilling the tea, has been making the rounds lately:




My guess is she shanks Sanders at the convention for a Biden VP slot or similar. Time will tell.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 03:26 AM


Lizzy will try to position herself as the alternative to Bernie and Joe.

Hmm
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Lizzy will try to position herself as the alternative to Bernie and Joe.

Hmm

Bernie and Liz are the two I would be most comfortable with.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 08:31 AM
Wasserman Schultz endorses Joe Biden for president

Who believes in omens?
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 12:37 PM
No Bernie, Yes Biden or Warren. Come November, I'll vote for anybody but Trump or Republican.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 04:15 PM
With all that has happened, Buttigeig, Klobuchar dropping out, endorsing Biden. Beto O'Rourke, Texas also endorsed Biden. I'll be watching Texas, North Carolina, Virginia. States in which Sanders had a small lead of 5 points give or take a point or two back on 28 Feb. Minnesota also where Sanders had taken a two point lead over Klobuchar with Biden in single digits.

California, Colorado, Maine plus a couple or more others look like a lock for Sanders. At least before the last day or two. Early voting may save Sanders on Super Tuesday especially in Texas.

I wonder how those who voted early, for Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Steyer now feel having no say among those remaining. I also wonder if any of those who voted early would change their minds over the happenings yesterday and a day or two before that. We'll never know.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 06:13 PM
I Just heard a story on the radio about voters going in to voting stations with their ballots to change their votes in person.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/03/20 10:30 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
I Just heard a story on the radio about voters going in to voting stations with their ballots to change their votes in person.

Is that allowed? I never heard of that. It could vary between states. I know here in Georgia, once you voted, early or at the polls on election day, there's no changing your vote.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 12:47 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Lizzy will try to position herself as the alternative to Bernie and Joe.

Hmm

Bernie and Liz are the two I would be most comfortable with.

So far Warren isn't drawing much of a crowd. After Beto flamed out I thought Warren might position herself between the two. No one can ever accuse her of being a socialist. She's not. But she's a progressive. I'd rather have Warren than Sanders. But I want one or the other of them since everyone else worth a feck has dropped out.

I've sworn a blood oath against Biden or Bloomberg though.

Of those two I'd far rather have Bloomberg. I think he'd be an able administrator and would appoint qualified people to get the US Government re-staffed and back in running order again. But that business of buying his way in disqualifies him.

Biden will simply be a disaster. You'll see.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 12:59 AM
Biden wins NC and Virginia by taking around 55% of the black vote. Both NC and Virginia in 2016, blacks made up 38% of the total Democratic Primary Vote. What's interesting is a week ago, sanders had the lead in both these states. Abet a small one of roughly around 5 points.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 01:18 AM
Texas closes hundreds of polling sites, making it harder for minorities to vote

The problem with going to the numbers oracles is it doesn’t tell you anything about how the numbers may have been arrived at.
Similar problems were occurring in Greensboro on Saturday.

I remember the nashing of teeth by liberals over voter suppression in the last few election cycles. Not hearing much about it now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 01:45 AM
Virginia race was called by the networks before results were given.
Odd that. Shaping perceptions for the western states?
Like calling it for Clinton by announcing she had the majority of delegates before California went to the polls. She hadn’t, they included superdelegates.
SSDP.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 03:45 AM
Wow, just learned Biden wins Massachusetts and Minnesota. Just last week, Biden was in single digits in Minnesota trailing Klobuchar by 21 and Sanders by 15. On the 29 Feb in Massachusetts it was Sanders 24, Warren 22, Biden 11 in fifth place behind Bloomberg and Buttigieg.

Texas looks like Sanders will prevail. He's up by 4 with 43% of the vote counted. Another surprise is Maine where Biden leads by a single point with 74% of the vote counted.

But listening to the exit poll data it is as I stated before, Sanders is strong with whites and Hispanics, very weak among blacks. It'll be Hispanics that carry Sanders to wins in Texas and California.

Everyone expected Sanders to win 10 states, he'll win 5 or 6 depending on Maine. But Sanders seems will take the big prizes of California and Texas. Although both Texas and Maine are too close to call.

Bed time, until tomorrow.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 04:03 AM
Texas won’t get Sanders much. A delegate split rilly.
Looks like Sanders has been kneecapped with Joltin Joe overtaking.

The calls for Sanders to drop out should be deafening soon.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 04:20 AM


Bernie will win TX and CA.

smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 04:21 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Wow, just learned Biden wins Massachusetts and Minnesota. Just last week, Biden was in single digits in Minnesota trailing Klobuchar by 21 and Sanders by 15
Mayor Pete and Amy were both in the race last week. They both were taking votes away from Joe. That's why the DNC forced them out this past weekend. Duh. rolleyes
Sanders looks like he's winning in California, but he's only getting about 27% of the votes. I think that's actually a huge win for Biden, because when you add Buttigieg's 11% to Biden's 17%, you get 28%. Bloomberg has 19% and I think those two will end up endorsing Biden before the convention. So Biden ends up with 47% to Sanders' 27%.

Since Warren went after Sanders I kind of doubt she will endorse Bernie, though some of her delegates may vote for Sanders since she is gone. Bernie's problem is that almost all the other Democrats in the race are just not that into him. I think Biden ends up with 50% at the first vote of the convention.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 06:46 AM
Biden is currently crushing it. California not yet in.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 06:47 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Bernie will win TX and CA.

smile
Wanna reconsider that? wink
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 06:56 AM
Here's the thing: Biden is winning in States that he may not win in the General.
39% reporting in California and Sanders is winning, but with only about 31% of the votes. If you add up the centrists percentages, I think they will ask their delegates to vote for Biden, and then he will have over 55%.

Consider this in context: There are 20 Democrats running for President in California. You have to get 15% to get any delegates. At the moment, that's just Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden. (Warren is at 12%.) Sanders has 31%, and between Bloomberg and Biden, they have 38.1%. So Sanders ends up with about 45% of the delegates in possibly the most progressive state in the country. Over the whole country, he has to do worse. It's not enough.
70% reporting in California and Sanders has 32.8% Bloomberg has 15% and Biden has 23.9%. Bloomberg + Biden is 38.9%. Centrist over the left by 54%.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 01:23 PM
Dow futures looking set for a rally today. Financial rags calling it a Biden rally. Seems like the Democracy Inc. is feeling good about last night.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 02:27 PM
It's over, total delegate awarded won't be known for a couple of days. I was wrong about Texas going to Sanders. Apparently the Hispanic vote there didn't save him. Biden also took Maine. It'll be interesting to crunch the exit polls numbers, at least for me. On 28 Feb Sanders held the lead in 10 of the 14 states. He ended up winning 4. The big one, California, Colorado, Vermont and Utah. Outside of Utah which will go Trump in November, the other three are guaranteed to go blue.

Biden did win the swing states of Minnesota and North Carolina. Some put Virginia in the swing state category which Biden won. I don't. For me the big surprises were Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Texas, Virginia where Biden was 5 to 16 points behind on 29 Feb.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 02:40 PM
The next big round is on 10 Mar. No info or polls on North Dakota, Mississippi and Idaho. As of this AM Sanders leads Biden in Michigan by 11 and in Washington State by 20. Biden leads in Missouri by 12.

I assume Biden will be strong in North Dakota, Mississippi and Idaho. But you know what they say about assumptions.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 03:57 PM
Vote count difference between Sanders and Biden, in Texas, was 71K. Rough analysis but closing 750 polling stations in hispanic/Black precints would be apx. 100 voters less per precints voting.

Sanders supporters are working class. The tradional strategy for conservatives is to make it hard for working class to vote by limiting access to the ballot.

I don't believe the Latinos failed to deliver in Texas. Democrats knee capped him there.

Still trying to figure out how a candidate can pull thousands out on a workday can lose to someone who had no organization to speak of and no polling just days before super Tuesday. This would have to be one of the largest political upsets in recent memory done by a candidate who had no presence, organization, outspent and clearly sundowning from the grind of the campaign.

Massachusetts is another amazing swing. Sanders brought out 12k at a rally there, during a work day, and was poised to take over Warren right before Tuesday. Mass does not take it's voting cues from South Carolina. No one saw Biden beating either Warren or Sanders but here you are. Biden ate sh!t in New Hampshire but apparently South Carolina endorsements from the party establishment put him over the top in a state he trailed badly with no organization, ground game to speak off prior to the vote.

Possible? Mebbe, but Biden?

Smells a bit. Waiting for the reports.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 05:47 PM
Here's the popular vote total so far.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/04/20 11:57 PM
Delegate count

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 02:55 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Still trying to figure out how a candidate can pull thousands out on a workday can lose to someone who had no organization to speak of and no polling just days before super Tuesday.

Because most people know who they're going to vote for before the election even starts. You did, for example.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 03:59 PM
Warrens suspending her campaign

It will be interesting who she endorses. Will be an interesting reveal and have much to say about her 'progressive' narrative that's been advertised.
Posted By: olyve Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 05:34 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
It will be interesting who she endorses. Will be an interesting reveal and have much to say about her 'progressive' narrative that's been advertised.

I have to say I resent that. IF she doesn't endorse Bernie she's not a true progressive?
As a progressive and long time Bernie supporter myself, I don't know now who I'm going to vote for now that she's gone. She stole my heart this time with her well thought out doable progressive agenda. Bernie's Bros are driving me batshit crazy with the notion that the ONLY reason she ran in the first place was to get Bernie elected. And that if she endorses Biden (I don't like him either) she's selling out.
I'm in Georgia (yeah believe it or not) and at the end of the day now I'm going to vote for who I think has the best chance of beating this monster in office.
And nobody can tell me I'm not a progressive. Those from here who remember me can testify to that!

Excuse my anger but right now I'm devastated, angry, disappointed and feeling hopeless. The one person, the most qualified person (by far), with the best PROGRESSIVE plan is gone now.
And the Bernie folks (of which I used to be and hope I still am when I calm down) better straighten up. You're driving people away with your sexist whining and bullying and speculating on what a woman candidate "should" do!
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 06:02 PM
Originally Posted by olyve
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
It will be interesting who she endorses. Will be an interesting reveal and have much to say about her 'progressive' narrative that's been advertised.

I have to say I resent that. IF she doesn't endorse Bernie she's not a true progressive?
As a progressive and long time Bernie supporter myself, I don't know now who I'm going to vote for now that she's gone. She stole my heart this time with her well thought out doable progressive agenda. Bernie's Bros are driving me batshit crazy with the notion that the ONLY reason she ran in the first place was to get Bernie elected. And that if she endorses Biden (I don't like him either) she's selling out.
I'm in Georgia (yeah believe it or not) and at the end of the day now I'm going to vote for who I think has the best chance of beating this monster in office.
And nobody can tell me I'm not a progressive. Those from here who remember me can testify to that!

Excuse my anger but right now I'm devastated, angry, disappointed and feeling hopeless. The one person, the most qualified person (by far), with the best PROGRESSIVE plan is gone now.
And the Bernie folks (of which I used to be and hope I still am when I calm down) better straighten up. You're driving people away with your sexist whining and bullying and speculating on what a woman candidate "should" do!

You have to remember that a certain type of Bernie fan thinks of themselves as a sort of priesthood, and they will tell you what is moral and right.

It's your job as a fully paid-up human being to tell them to get stuffed, of course, but don't be shocked by the preaching.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 07:26 PM
I don't think you can claim to be insulted when you start in on the Bernie Bro slur. It was started in 2016 and has been framed as a campaign feature of his but doesn't square with reality.
His coalition was always a multi ethnic, multi racial, etc, etc. Ditto supporters of Sanders being mean.

Her choice will be hers and will have ramifications on the race between two very different politicians. One will fight for progressive ideas the other the status quo. You'll have to pardon me if I draw a conclusion from what her decision will mean about her politics.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Warrens suspending her campaign

It will be interesting who she endorses. Will be an interesting reveal and have much to say about her 'progressive' narrative that's been advertised.

Looks like she is declining to endorse anybody, at least not at the moment, according to reports.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 07:44 PM
Originally Posted by olyve
better straighten up. You're driving people away with your sexist whining and bullying and speculating on what a woman candidate "should" do!

I didn't realize I said something sexist or bullying. Could you point out where I did that in my post:

'It will be interesting who she endorses. Will be an interesting reveal and have much to say about her 'progressive' narrative that's been advertised.'



Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 08:30 PM
Quote
IF she doesn't endorse Bernie she's not a true progressive?
No one but Bernie is a true progressive. When he's gone there will be none left. True Scotsmen are hard to come by too....

I've heard a rumor that Her people and Bernie's people are talking. We'll see if anything comes of it. It won't matter much since both are toast as far as this election is concerned. Biden appears to be the shoo-in at this point. Were there shenanigans? I think so...

Bloomberg's late entry when Biden began to stumble and his dumping of half a billion dollars into centrist advertising served to conflate Biden with Bloomberg. Spread the message of safe conservative centrist policies and turn the tide against the populist uprising.

They did it fair and square. If this was a game, their strategy was impeccable. Beto's endorsement alone might have swung Texas(his father in law is a billionaire) but voter suppresion played a part there too...

There's a million arguments but the moderates appear to have things under control at this point. I'll leave the top line blank or vote third party if there is someone I'd like to throw a bone.

I stand by my belief that we are better off re-electing Trump than electing Biden.
Posted By: olyve Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 10:41 PM
Chunkstyle,
I apologize for wording my post in such a way that singled you out as a sexist and bully. And honestly I don't know where the term Bernie Bros comes from so I probably shouldn't have used that reference either. In fact I usually don't use it at all.
I haven't visited this forum in a while so I don't know you other than this thread.
I was speaking generically to whom it may apply. In fact, I came here because I needed a safe place to rant. As I said I'm angry and disappointed that her chances looked so good and then she was squashed like a bug. Sexism. You betcha. I thought she was the one who could beat it.

I have numerous friends, and I do mean friends (I don't want to lose) who are driving me crazy with their attacks on Elizabeth.
I myself was/is a passionate supporter of Bernie until Elizabeth entered the race. She stole my heart with her progressive ideas and detailed ways to implement them. That doesn't mean that I think less of Bernie. Not at all. I just think she's more pragmatic and I like a person with a plan. I mean it, my other progressive friends are really getting turned off by the Hillary like vitriol surrounding her. It is distinctly sexist.

Who she decides to endorse is in question because she may choose strategy over ideals. I may go the same way. I disagree with Greger that Joe is just as bad as the present occupant. I have a decision to make about who I think is most electable.
So....I think that one shouldn't presume that if she endorses Biden she's not still a progressive.
Wouldn't it be nice if she had the ear of centrist Joe and could pull him to the left a little bit?

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/05/20 11:55 PM
RCP has updated the delegate count from California. Sanders 167, Biden 116, Bloomberg 15, Warren 5. There's still 112 delegates left to be awarded.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 12:35 AM
Hey Olyve,
Don’t sweat me any. I get your frustration and anger. It’s not easy to have your champion step down when you place your hopes and efforts into them for real progressive change.
I live in Buffalo Bills country and being crushed with disappointment is a regular feature every season frown
While I have some reservations with Warren it would never be about her gender. Only her politics. I’ve worked on two political campaigns for two awesome women candidates. One succeeded while another did not. It sucks when your candidate loses. Real bad.

I can’t tell you how to vote only that one candidate has a solid record of fighting the good fight for progressive causes his whole political career. The other candidate has dismantled much of the progress that was achieved by our parents and grandparents struggles to achieve a living wage, public services, bringing banks and monopolies to heel, fighting for the right to organize, racial justice, etc...

In my entire adult life I have seen little evidence of strategic political triangulation that has led to any lasting, universal progress in health, income or justice for the majority of Americans. I see no reason why it would now.

I really want to be pleasantly surprised by Warren and Sanders. Settle any differences and present a united progressive front to the conservative, corporate sponsored wing of the Democratic Party.

I want Warren made a financial fraud czar to stomp on Bloomberg, Diamond, Blankfein, etc. Sanders will need people like Warren if there is any hope of getting some progress made and getting any kind of humane form of government from this soul crushing one we’ve had. I hope their talks result in an alliance.

I’m happy you could blow off some steam here at the rant and glad to see you post again and hope you will some more.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I want Warren made a financial fraud czar to stomp on Bloomberg, Diamond, Blankfein, etc. Sanders will need people like Warren if there is any hope of getting some progress made and getting any kind of humane form of government from this soul crushing one we’ve had. I hope their talks result in an alliance.

Seeing as how Obama was happy to help her, the one bright spot in all of this is that Biden most likely will do the same.
I guess we will see in the fullness of time.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 01:51 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
It won't matter much since both are toast as far as this election is concerned. Biden appears to be the shoo-in at this point. Were there shenanigans? I think so...

There has been shenanigans since the beginning of the primary starting in Iowa. It looks like the same unaccountable discrepancies between final vote totals reported being outside the margin of error of exit polls are happening now as they did in 2016.
States having paper ballot back were reported not having the same discrepancies as the exit polls.:

“Presidential candidates Biden’s and Bloomberg’s vote counts exhibited the largest disparity from their exit poll projections. Biden’s unobservable computer-generated vote totals represented a 15.7% increase of his projected exit poll share. Given the 1,342,905 voters in this election, he gained approximately 60,900 more votes than projected by the exit poll. Bloomberg increased his vote share by 28.2% and approximately 34,500 more votes than projected. Their gain came largely at the expense of candidates Sanders and Warren whose combined vote counts were 97,000 less than projected by the exit poll.[i]

Noteworthy is the fact that the 2016 Massachusetts Republican Party exit poll taken at the same time and at the same precincts as the Democratic Party primary, and also with a crowded field of five candidates, was matched almost perfectly by the computer count—varying by less than one percent for each candidate.”

MASSACHUSETTS 2020 DEMOCRATIC PARTY PRIMARY Exit Poll Versus Reported Vote Count

No one was interested then, I doubt they will be any more now.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 04:03 AM
Biden’s life long political underwriters would be the very targets for Warren. Can’t see her getting anywhere near financial regulation should Biden somehow become president.

I saw a Biden tweet earlier expressing how great she was as a candidate and he’ll need her in the Senate to continue her good work.

Early to draw any conclusion from it.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 05:13 AM
And in 2016:

“For the numbers I can find (nearly all of them) on the GOP side for the same states, the overall bias is virtually nil, with most results getting the margin between first and second place in each contest right within a percentage or two. In 17 of the 25 contests on the Dem side, the exit polling miss on the marginal difference was 3.5% or more; this has happened just four times on the GOP side. On the GOP side, the misses of 3.5% or more were distributed across candidates. On the Dem side, 16 of 17 were in Clinton’s favor. For 9 of the 25 contests, the polling miss was 7.0% or greater, all in Clinton’s favor. This happened just once for Republicans (Texas).”

2016 primary elections fraud allegations

I’m of the opinion that the party just did a multi state Iowa on Super Tuesday.
The Massachusetts point swing was absurd. The exit polling discrepancy errors should
be randomly distributed. As we watched in Iowa, they keep disadvantaging in one direction. Just as they did in the 2016 primary but not the GOP’s.

Or maybe Biden voters are not as enthusiastic as Sanders voters, so they don't want to tell exit poll people how they voted. I think you are grasping at straws here. Actual vote tallies are 100 times as credible as exit polls. There is so much transparency in reporting tallies that any number rigging would be obvious to too many people for it to be kept a secret. This is a very important factor in any conspiracy theory: How many people would it take to pull this off? Would that many people actually keep it a secret for x number of years?
Great to see you back here, olyve! Please hang around. It's a sausage fest around here! We need more input from women.

Sad that Warren had to fold. She was probably the most qualified candidate, but after 2016 I'm convinced that women are a female candidate's worst enemy. If women really wanted a female President they could have voted for Clinton, but they didn't. Most White women actually preferred a rapist over a woman. Sad.

That's actually why I voted for Sanders instead of Warren. I would prefer a progressive, but I guess there are just too many Democrats scared of the Socialist label.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 11:15 AM
It is obvious to many people. Iowa was obvious to many people. Iowa had to change their vote totals after the outrage. Exit polling was the most accurate polling until recently.
The results are in and the errors keep happening in one direction.

Your Biden voters acting coy about their vote with the exit pollsters is absurd.

People in the DNC and Clinton campaigns conspiratorial illiberal and illegal behavior was exposed. The Podesta emails were published though liberals were loath to talk about it at the time. They, instead, spent 3 years hyperventilating about Russian meddling without saying a word about what those hacked emails revealed.


I think your being reliably obtuse, PIA.

Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 01:35 PM
Or maybe the difference is from absentee voters, kind of hard to exit pole them...
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 01:51 PM
It's a good thing the stock market had gotten so high, so there's room to fall a long ways before hitting bottom. Who knew that Trump's economy was so fragile? Not even Big Government bandaids like tax cuts or practically zero interest rates seem to have much effect. I guess he's toast for a second term, even a moldy ham sandwich could beat him in November.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 02:12 PM
Well, on to the next phase of who will be...

Since we will have a nominee in their late seventies, we will also be voting for their possible successor. My wife and I were talking about this and here is a shortlist of possibles and a few reasons pro or con.


Warren - Holds a seat in the Senate, can do more damage in the Senate, in her seventies herself

Kamala Harris - Holds a seat in the Senate, can do the job, needs more political seasoning, would bring in more black voters

Amy Klobuchar - Holds a seat in the Senate, no excitement, feels like Hubert Humphrey, record as a prosecutor

Cory Boker - Holds a seat in the Senate, no excitement, would bring more black voters

Barack Obama - 22nd amendment

Pete Buttigieg - young, needs more seasoning, should have held a governorship, though many like him, this country will elect a female President before it does an LGBTQ President (a shame I would vote for him)

Then we thought of

Michelle Obama - generates excitement, would give Trumpiaens and Republicans apoplexy, would bring the black vote and more women of all colors

Beto O'Rouke - Texas native son, strong Hispanic support, does not hold a seat in the Senate

Just a short list.

So who do you think could be a running mate this election.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 02:28 PM
couple of problems with that.

The media created narrative is Joe getting the bump out of South Carolina that helped propel his victory in Mass.
He wasn’t not polling well prior to Tuesday. If his stunning upset there can be attributed with early voting wouldn’t previous polling reflect that or are Biden supporters adept peekaboo polling artists?

Hardly any advertising.
Got his arse handed to him in neighboring New Hampshire just prior.
The errors in exit polling should’ve been randomly distributed. They were not.
They were in the Republican primary of 2016. They were not in the Democratic primary.

I was on the texting Berner. Of the respondence that texted back Biden was nearly non-existant. More responses for Warren and Bernie support than anywhere else. My anecdotal observations of text response support mirrored polling reports.
He had no organization in Mass prior to Tuesday.


Risks of computer vote hacking have been widely reported on before the primary even began. Those warnings went largely ignored. Dubious Russian meddling was sold to the public instead. It’s why I my immediate response I posted here was something ain’t right in Mass.

My take away is if there is no paper back up and it can be rigged it will. Two much money is on the line for the status quo not to do it and they’ve been exposed already in doing so in 2016. Russia took the air out of the room to focus on those issues as it was intended to do, IMO.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 02:45 PM
One potential candidate has run up the flagpole the idea of a Republican running mate.

Mitt Romney has been floated.
John Kasich
Any never Trump Republican that is open to the possibilities of cutting S.S. And could be instrumental in getting that done.



On the other end I think you can’t ignore the Stacy Abrams rumors.

Sanders has me stumped for a V. P. pick

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 02:51 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
It's a good thing the stock market had gotten so high, so there's room to fall a long ways before hitting bottom. Who knew that Trump's economy was so fragile? Not even Big Government bandaids like tax cuts or practically zero interest rates seem to have much effect. I guess he's toast for a second term, even a moldy ham sandwich could beat him in November.
The are many commonalities with 1929 (I highlighted them - some have different causes, such as trade tariffs). And in addition to consumer debt being high, the national debt is also out of control. The national debt:GDP ratio was 16% in 1929. The Federal Reserve helped to create an unsustainable boom in the 1920s by lowering interest rates.

The Great Depression

Quote
Throughout the 1920s, the U.S. economy expanded rapidly, and the nation’s total wealth more than doubled between 1920 and 1929, a period dubbed “the Roaring Twenties.”

The stock market, centered at the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in New York City, was the scene of reckless speculation, where everyone from millionaire tycoons to cooks and janitors poured their savings into stocks. As a result, the stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929.

By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stock prices much higher than their actual value. Additionally, wages at that time were low, consumer debt was proliferating, the agricultural sector of the economy was struggling due to drought and falling food prices and banks had an excess of large loans that could not be liquidated.

The American economy entered a mild recession during the summer of 1929, as consumer spending slowed and unsold goods began to pile up, which in turn slowed factory production. Nonetheless, stock prices continued to rise, and by the fall of that year had reached stratospheric levels that could not be justified by expected future earnings.

What do you think Trump's economy will look like come November?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 03:14 PM
Corporate debt is at an all time high to as I recall. Lots of stock buy back with low interest money has been a real tail wind for some time for the market. A nice way to funnel money to shareholders and boards.

Others borrowed for plant expansions, acquisitions, etc..

That debt has to be serviced making the market much more fragile to downturns.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 04:14 PM
Gary from VEEP gets my vote for the 'Bernie Bro' narrative

Posted By: olyve Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 04:40 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Sad that Warren had to fold. She was probably the most qualified candidate, but after 2016 I'm convinced that women are a female candidate's worst enemy. If women really wanted a female President they could have voted for Clinton, but they didn't. Most White women actually preferred a rapist over a woman. Sad.
PIA, NO. They did not prefer a rapist over a woman. They did however vote to preserve the lifestyle that they have thanks to their men. I have two sister in laws who live lavishly. One went to work on her own once and my brother had a fit. I grew up in a very very patriarchal household. My father grew up in a Mennonite farming family in Kansas. Though he left the church (got kicked out) he retained his built in sexist ways. Men are the bread winners, women are their support system.
Once the boomers are gone (of which I am a member so watch yourself!)maybe all that will get better. I know that my daughter's Atlanta suburban neighborhood is waking up from their republican stupor. They are younger. They are educated. They are well off. They are horrified....after the fact.


It took me a while to get over/accept why 53% of white women voted for a monster. I've still got some anger and disappointment but I had to remind myself (stupidly)that women live in a man's world still and sometimes choose to take what they can get however they get it.
And that's why I'm conflicted about all this talk about her "supporting" one candidate over the other. Maybe one of them will throw her a bone and pick her as vice president! ThumbsUp
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 06:52 PM
Quote
Maybe one of them will throw her a bone and pick her as vice president!

Something like that would be the only way I'd vote for Biden. But Biden isn't really known for throwing bones to progressives. He may choose a person of color, he may choose a woman. Staci Abrams wouldn't be enough to sway me, neither would Kamala Harris. Those are a couple of the obvious answers Joe's team is pondering right now. Warren isn't on the short list, or even the long list.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 06:57 PM
Quote
even a moldy ham sandwich could beat him in November.

And seeing this to be the truth Democrats appear poised to nominate a moldy ham sandwich.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 08:01 PM
RCP's update on the California delegate count, Sanders 179, Biden 127, Bloomberg 15, Warren 5. 89 more to be awarded. Along with the over all delegate count.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Update on the polls for 10 Mar. No info on Idaho, North Dakota or Mississippi. Changes in the poll numbers from 4 Mar to 6 Mar. Michigan, from Sanders by 11 to Biden by 7, Missouri, from Biden by 12 to Biden by 20, Washington State, from Sanders by 20 to Sanders by 6.

And since I live in Georgia, 24 Mar Primary and will vote in the democratic Primary, on 4 Mar it was Biden by 3, 6 Mar it is Biden by 21.

I know a lot of folks here don't pay attention to polls. But numbers always fascinated me. Isn't strange that prior to South Carolina almost everyone was giving the nomination to Sanders. Now after Super Tuesday, almost everyone is saying Biden. But one needs to keep in mind if things can change dynamically in 4 days, they can change again.

Quote
It took me a while to get over/accept why 53% of white women voted for a monster.

My mistake. Maybe that 53% bought in to his lies because then they could pretend he wasn't a monster, and they could continue their lifestyle uninterrupted. I was saddened because I thought women were a little more woke that that.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/06/20 10:27 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One potential candidate has run up the flagpole the idea of a Republican running mate.

Mitt Romney has been floated.
John Kasich
Any never Trump Republican that is open to the possibilities of cutting S.S. And could be instrumental in getting that done.



On the other end I think you can’t ignore the Stacy Abrams rumors.

Sanders has me stumped for a V. P. pick

A Biden/Abrams ticket has the very real possibility of delivering Georgia to the democrats. Abrams lost the governors race in 2018 by a mere 55,000 votes. Win Georgia, Trump loses.

A VP pick for Sanders, should be someone much younger, not from the Northeast, more of a moderate. Klobuchar, Baldwin, both would do nicely. Plus each would probably guarantee a swing state into the Democratic column. But my favorite would be Tammy Duckworth, the spunky senator from Illinois and a military vet. Illinois is going Democratic no matter what, but I really like her spunk, a classy spunk at that.
Posted By: olyve Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 04:15 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
It took me a while to get over/accept why 53% of white women voted for a monster.

My mistake. Maybe that 53% bought in to his lies because then they could pretend he wasn't a monster, and they could continue their lifestyle uninterrupted. I was saddened because I thought women were a little more woke that that.
That's a mighty broad brush, PIA. I take it you jest.
Yes there are republican women. And most weirdly are women evangelicals. Go figure. For some reason the religious right, much of it anyway, has gone ape over this guy. I cannot speak to that.

Something about you blaming the whole thing on misguided ("unwoke") women bothers me. Women as a whole DID NOT vote for him.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 06:00 AM

Olyve is back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bow , smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 06:02 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One potential candidate has run up the flagpole the idea of a Republican running mate.

Mitt Romney has been floated.
John Kasich
Any never Trump Republican that is open to the possibilities of cutting S.S. And could be instrumental in getting that done.



On the other end I think you can’t ignore the Stacy Abrams rumors.

Sanders has me stumped for a V. P. pick
Welp, I thought Bernie had a chance two weeks ago, but he and ol' Joe are neck and neck in Michigan - Bernie Country. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 06:06 AM
Originally Posted by olyve
... I had to remind myself (stupidly)that women live in a man's world still and sometimes choose to take what they can get however they get it...
On NPR this morning, there was poll showing that many women (40%) are misogynist and think in terms that women should only be in traditional roles. WTH?

Hmm

...and a lot of woman were still mad at Hillary in 2016 for 'standing by her man.' gobsmacked
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 06:08 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Maybe one of them will throw her a bone and pick her as vice president!

Something like that would be the only way I'd vote for Biden. But Biden isn't really known for throwing bones to progressives. He may choose a person of color, he may choose a woman. Staci Abrams wouldn't be enough to sway me, neither would Kamala Harris. Those are a couple of the obvious answers Joe's team is pondering right now. Warren isn't on the short list, or even the long list.
Vote blue, no matter who. smile

Greger you live in FL, you have to vote. You can't sit this one out. nono
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 01:15 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One potential candidate has run up the flagpole the idea of a Republican running mate.

Mitt Romney has been floated.
John Kasich
Any never Trump Republican that is open to the possibilities of cutting S.S. And could be instrumental in getting that done.



On the other end I think you can’t ignore the Stacy Abrams rumors.

Sanders has me stumped for a V. P. pick
Welp, I thought Bernie had a chance two weeks ago, but he and ol' Joe are neck and neck in Michigan - Bernie Country. Hmm

Michigan is interesting, Sanders had a 25-16 lead over Biden on 20 Feb.

https://news.wisc.edu/battleground-state-poll-1/

But as 3 Mar Biden had taken the lead 29-23 over Sanders.

https://www.clickondetroit.com/deci...of-the-2020-democratic-primary-election/

How much stock to put into them since they still include Buttigieg, Bloomberg, Warren, Klobuchar etc. is up to you.

Other 10 Mar polling, since 4 Mar to this AM, 7 Mar in Missouri Biden increased lead over Sanders from 12 to 20 points. But in my opinion the worst news for Sanders is on the west coast, the very progressive state of Washington where over the same time period 4-7 Mar, Biden has cut a 20 point Sanders lead down to 6. With no data on North Dakota, Idaho or Mississippi, the remainder of the 10 Mar Primaries, it looks like Sanders might just win one state, Washington. Even there, it looks like a very close thing.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 01:28 PM
Tulsi Gabbard is still in the race by the way. She doesn’t seem to count as the goddess mother deems her a Russian agent. DNC rules committee allowed a billionaire to enter the debate stage in Nevada with no thresholds being met under the existing rules to do so.
Tulsi picks up a delegate and has the individual contributions requirement.
Democrats change the rules.
Funny thing about those rules and the people hollering about them.

I guess speaking out against the war industries and their servants gets you blacklisted in the Democratic Party. I think that’s the takeaway rule.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 01:49 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Tulsi Gabbard is still in the race by the way. She doesn’t seem to count as the goddess mother deems her a Russian agent.
Because she IS a Russian asset. She's just there to tell Vlad the DNC next moves.

Hmm
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 02:29 PM
Based on what Rick?
Clintonite smearing?
Hard evidence?

If your being serious, please explain.
I’d love to understanding the rational.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 04:09 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Based on what Rick?
Clintonite smearing?
Hard evidence?

If your being serious, please explain.
I’d love to understanding the rational.
Her support of Russia and Syria. smile The fact that she's still in the race despite not having a snowball's chance in hell of becoming POTUS. Hmm
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 05:00 PM
What does supporting syria and russia mean?
How does being in a primary make her a Russian assets?
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 05:28 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
One potential candidate has run up the flagpole the idea of a Republican running mate.

Mitt Romney has been floated.
John Kasich
Any never Trump Republican that is open to the possibilities of cutting S.S. And could be instrumental in getting that done.



On the other end I think you can’t ignore the Stacy Abrams rumors.

Sanders has me stumped for a V. P. pick
I've said t it before so I'll repeat it: Warren. Ideologically, they're close, and she has plans to accomplish what he wants.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 05:32 PM
Ideology close to what?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 06:54 PM
Quote
Greger you live in FL, you have to vote. You can't sit this one out.

Bologna. I think I've made it clear from the minute he announced his candidacy that I would not vote for Biden. Not because of Bernie, but because he simply has nothing to offer. He is a step backwards when we need to lean into the wind or be blown away.

Voters may hand him the White House in November and depose Trump, but then what? As far as I know, his only real promise is that he will work with Republicans, compromise with Republicans, make the Democratic Party more like the Republican Party and has even said he may choose a Republican running mate.

Yall can keep that sh*t. What it's gonna get ya is a sound defeat by Republicans in 2024.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 11:17 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
What does supporting syria and russia mean?
How does being in a primary make her a Russian assets?
Tulsi should just join Jill Stein in getting a RT job already. smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/07/20 11:19 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
[Voters may hand him the White House in November and depose Trump, but then what? As far as I know, his only real promise is that he will work with Republicans, compromise with Republicans, make the Democratic Party more like the Republican Party and has even said he may choose a Republican running mate.

Yall can keep that sh*t. What it's gonna get ya is a sound defeat by Republicans in 2024.
I wanted real change too, but most Americans want to play it safe like some regular center-rightists aka moderates. Hmm
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 01:12 AM
Now your really getting silly. That’s proof?

No ones going to comment on the rule change cept Ricks smear I guess.
Posted By: olyve Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 01:20 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by olyve
... I had to remind myself (stupidly)that women live in a man's world still and sometimes choose to take what they can get however they get it...
On NPR this morning, there was poll showing that many women (40%) are misogynist and think in terms that women should only be in traditional roles. WTH?

Hmm

...and a lot of woman were still mad at Hillary in 2016 for 'standing by her man.' gobsmacked
Thanks for the welcome back PIA and Rick. I'm not sure I'm actually back though.
I'm really sick of the conscious and unconscious sexism going on around this primary season. Especially after 2016.
Hillary is not running. It's time to cut it out. The hatred was palpable. And now Warren. Among Bernie fans no less. Dear god.

Rick, I really want to respond to what you wrote but I don't know how. I don't know what your point was.
Originally Posted by olyve
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by olyve
... I had to remind myself (stupidly)that women live in a man's world still and sometimes choose to take what they can get however they get it...
On NPR this morning, there was poll showing that many women (40%) are misogynist and think in terms that women should only be in traditional roles. WTH?

Hmm

...and a lot of woman were still mad at Hillary in 2016 for 'standing by her man.' gobsmacked
Thanks for the welcome back PIA and Rick. I'm not sure I'm actually back though.
I'm really sick of the conscious and unconscious sexism going on around this primary season. Especially after 2016.
Hillary is not running. It's time to cut it out. The hatred was palpable. And now Warren. Among Bernie fans no less. Dear god.

Rick, I really want to respond to what you wrote but I don't know how. I don't know what your point was.

Please be back, Olyve.
We not only appreciate your presence here, we also need you to keep us honest. Maybe you don't realize just how loved you are here at The Rant.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 01:47 AM
I hope you stick around, Olyve, I've missed you.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 02:08 AM
IT’S O’LYVE!!

Some women are still mad at Hillary for not dumping Bill because he got a BJ. Rich women probably think that was fine, because they "have people for that" in their own marriages.

Some would rather have a man who was boning a porn star while his wife was in labor, as President. Some Democrats demanded Al Franken, former comic, resign because he made jokes about a good-looking woman who was in USO shows with him specifically because she was good looking.

My conclusion is that Americans are insane when it comes to sex. We all need to calm down and grow up.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 03:29 AM
“We need each other. Main Street and Wall Street must come together”- Donna Brazille.

There you have it. The liberals moving to the Republican side. The Republicans go to the fascist side.

Warrens going to burn her “progressive” image next and join the corporate board. Politically weaponizing gender equality was the first show card. She’s looking for that pay day, she’ll endorse Biden, her political nemesis, soon.

Biden will be kept in a meat locker as they did Hillary, but for totally different reasons. The more the public saw of Hillary the more her approval ratings went down. The more the public sees of Biden the more he makes a case for Sanders. He’s sundowning hard.

It’s amazing how predisposed the libs are to falling in line. Biden got Thomas to the Supreme Court, wanted to restrict abortion, opposed gay marriage, etc, etc.

Beats voting for a guy fighting for universal healthcare, a living wage and social Justice I guess.



Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 03:47 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by Greger
[Voters may hand him the White House in November and depose Trump, but then what? As far as I know, his only real promise is that he will work with Republicans, compromise with Republicans, make the Democratic Party more like the Republican Party and has even said he may choose a Republican running mate.

Yall can keep that sh*t. What it's gonna get ya is a sound defeat by Republicans in 2024.
I wanted real change too, but most Americans want to play it safe like some regular center-rightists aka moderates. Hmm
I agree with playing it safe, also people feeling more comfortable with Biden than Sanders. Also Sanders is kind of a revolutionary howling against the Democratic Party establishment. Remind you of someone else back in 2016 howling against the Republican Party establishment?

I think what's over looked is that 66% of Democrats think Biden can beat Trump vs. 52% that think Sanders could. That ties directly into that 40% of democrats think beating Trump is their number one issue. way more than any other issue on the board to include healthcare, climate change, gun control, etc. Choosing someone who in the Democratic Primary voters eyes stands the best chance of defeating Trump even over rides ideology. My two cents on this anyway.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 03:58 AM

Should we start planning Joe Biden's Cabinet for him?

I nominate Mayor Pete for SecState. Pete speaks eight languages and he can represent the LBGTQ community around the world. Plus his military background makes him a perfect fit.

smile

Lizzy for SecTres
Andrew Yang for SecCommerce
Kamala for Attorney General
Julian Castro for SecLabor
Dr Jill Biden for SecEd

Bow
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 04:38 AM
Biden voted against gay marriage so he’s got that going for him.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 04:48 AM
Trump will do what the neoliberals can’t.
He’ll run to the left of Biden and his record on trade, social security.
Biden will lose and the libs will blame the left, Russia, voters, etc.. for their criminal incompetence.

In a neoliberal meritocracy, only the poor pay the penalty for incompetence and crime it seems.

Rules got ‘changed’ again for the next debate. Crickets.,,
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 05:09 AM
Biden and Trump both are for cutting Medicare and Social Security!

Honestly it looks like Trump is doing everything in his power to lose the election and Democrats are trying to force him to win it.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 05:14 AM
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]
How about AOC as VP? Unfortunately, she isn't old enough. But next term, President Biden could pick her. She is actually fairly well qualified. Republicans all call her a bartender but she majored in international relations and economics at Boston University, graduating cum laude in 2011.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 02:14 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Biden and Trump both are for cutting Medicare and Social Security!

Honestly it looks like Trump is doing everything in his power to lose the election and Democrats are trying to force him to win it.

Personal feelings or are numbers in play. As a numbers guy, I'm more interested in independents than Republicans and Democrats. History has shown that on average Republicans and democrats vote for their party's candidate 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is.

But let's look at swing states, Trump vs. Biden, Trump vs. Sanders. Too early to put much stock in these, but interesting and they might reflect why 66% of democrats think Biden can beat Trump vs 52% that sanders could. I don't have numbers on all swing states, but the one's I do.

Arizona, Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Florida, Biden tied with Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Iowa Trump leading both Biden and Sanders
Michigan Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Minnesota Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Nevada Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
New Hampshire Trump leading both Biden and Sanders
North Carolina Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Ohio Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Pennsylvania Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Wisconsin Trump leading both Biden and Sanders

As of today, Biden does give the democrats a better chance of winning certain swing states, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. But the general election campaign hasn't kicked in and there's been no personal attacks. Those could change these dynamics. But in almost every swing state, Biden is doing 2-4 points better against Trump than Sanders is.

The national averages it's Biden 50-44 over Trump, Sanders 48-46 over Trump. As of today, numbers say Biden has the best chance of defeating Trump. Come November, no one knows. Things can change in a hurry as proved pre and post South Carolina.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 03:21 PM
Things can change on a hurry between exit polling and official reporting.
The party has been engaged in a media narrative since day one and the polling numbers will be used when it’s convenient to do so.

But they are transitory especially when it comes to Trump vs. Biden.

Coupla things that will wreck those poll numbers:

Republicans will be hauling Biden into criminal investigations over Burisma. Subpoenas are getting readied. Joes got dirt under his nails here.

He continues to mentally deteriorate on the trail. Debates may prove difficult for him going forward between Sanders or Trump, if he makes it.

Front runner status means his consummate insider record will become an issue regarding trade, equal rights, support for reactionary Supreme Court justices, trying to cut social security, etc..,

All of this and much more makes for a lot of drag on his numbers going forward.
The left has been publicly ratf#cked by the party again. I don’t think they will come out this time nor should they. Without that support I doubt his numbers will stand up to Trumps going down the road.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/08/20 05:53 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Things can change on a hurry between exit polling and official reporting.
The party has been engaged in a media narrative since day one and the polling numbers will be used when it’s convenient to do so.

But they are transitory especially when it comes to Trump vs. Biden.

Coupla things that will wreck those poll numbers:

Republicans will be hauling Biden into criminal investigations over Burisma. Subpoenas are getting readied. Joes got dirt under his nails here.

He continues to mentally deteriorate on the trail. Debates may prove difficult for him going forward between Sanders or Trump, if he makes it.

Front runner status means his consummate insider record will become an issue regarding trade, equal rights, support for reactionary Supreme Court justices, trying to cut social security, etc..,

All of this and much more makes for a lot of drag on his numbers going forward.
The left has been publicly ratf#cked by the party again. I don’t think they will come out this time nor should they. Without that support I doubt his numbers will stand up to Trumps going down the road.

Probably true. But I take it you're not worried about Trump and company branding Sanders a socialist? Having many tapes of Sanders himself describing himself as a Democratic Socialist. I'm positive Trump and company will be running those tapes night and day. Will it be successful or not, who knows? But according to Gallup only 45% of independents say they would vote for a socialist. That's throwing half of the independent vote away if Trump and company are successful in branding Sanders as such.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I'm not saying those independents who don't like Trump will end up voting for him because of his branding Sanders as a socialist. One must remember 12% of independents voted third party in 2016, against both Trump and Clinton. That number might rise to 20% or higher if the socialist tag sticks. Which it might being the ads displaying Sanders calling himself a democratic socialist.

Is Biden the best candidate to beat Trump of the two remaining, probably in my opinion. But not in the beginning field. I would put Hickenlooper first, then Klobuchar. Both far more attractive to the independent voter. But independents don't decide who will be the Democratic nominee, Democrats do.

It's like 2016, a poll showed in Feb of that year that 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone other than Hillary Clinton. The Democrats ignored America as a whole which was their right to do so. No doubt about that. But ignoring America as a whole brought about who we have in the White House today.

I'm not a partisan or an ideologue or one who has a favorite candidate. Just a numbers guy who studies who might have the better chance. You might be correct, then again perhaps neither one, Biden nor Sanders is the right candidate to beat Trump. Time will tell. I can only go by the numbers and data in hand today, I have no idea what the numbers will say come November.
And Covid-19 could dramatically change the 2020 election: Any of the three candidates could die. We could wind up with President Pelosi before the election. The Senate could lose members, as could the House. Remember, it's especially lethal to the elderly.

I suspect things will look very different in a month.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/20 03:48 AM
Quote
I suspect things will look very different in a month.

Stock market is liable to go off another cliff tomorrow, too.

Donald Trump is at the helm as we witness the biggest stock market crash in history.

It could be a completely different world in a month.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
How about AOC as VP? Unfortunately, she isn't old enough. But next term, President Biden could pick her. She is actually fairly well qualified. Republicans all call her a bartender but she majored in international relations and economics at Boston University, graduating cum laude in 2011.

With a few tweets, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez HAS CHANGED EVERYTHING.

Quote
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.

ROTFMOL

Goddamn the Righties HATE her with a passion.
It is HILARIOUS.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/20 08:46 AM
Quote
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.

Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/20 12:38 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
And Covid-19 could dramatically change the 2020 election: Any of the three candidates could die. We could wind up with President Pelosi before the election. The Senate could lose members, as could the House. Remember, it's especially lethal to the elderly.

I suspect things will look very different in a month.
Very true. Things could look very different on Wednesday,11 Mar if Sanders wins Michigan and Washington State tomorrow.

All it takes to change things 180 degrees is one huge mistake or some major unforeseen event or happening.

Here's the latest delegate count going into tomorrow. Updated by RCP as of this AM.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

And the popular vote totals.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/20 03:15 PM
Originally Posted by Ujest Shurly
Quote
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.

Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?

Well, yeah. The dems lack the cojones to do anything about it.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/20 03:25 PM
Originally Posted by Ujest Shurly
Quote
If AOC can continue to be that effective a messenger for progressive politics for, say, the next 40 years, imagine what she'll be able to do. I promise you, the right-wing media has and that's why Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has them freaked out so badly.

Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?

I think it all depends on who the female candidate is. Would Republican women vote for AOC or Democratic women for Nikki Hailey? No they wouldn't. I don't think even independent women would vote for either of them if the other party had a more moderate candidate running.

The R and the D next to a candidates name, regardless of gender take precedence over who the candidate is among the party faithful. History shows that on average 90% of those who affiliate with either party will vote for their party's candidate regardless of who that candidate is.

So it's left to independents to decide. This time around I think independents would have gone for Klobuchar, Baldwin, Duckworth, a Rosen, but not a Warren or an AOC. The democrats themselves decided a big no on Klobuchar. Ideology plays an important fact in determing who the two major parties nominate. This year the democrats themselves chose two old 78 year old's, white, males.

The first female president will be one who can attract independent voters, either center, center left or center right who's opponent is either very far left or far right. Mark my word on it.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/09/20 06:34 PM
Here's how Sanders did in the primary states on tap tomorrow against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Let's see how he does against Biden.

10 Mar 2016 2020
Idaho 78%
Michigan 48%
Missouri 49%
Mississippi 17%
North Dakota 64%
Washington 73%

If the polls are accurate, Sanders had a 20 point lead in Washington State a week ago, they now show a tie. Sanders was behind Biden in Missouri by 11, they show Biden has increased his lead to 20 points. Where Sanders was up by 11 in Michigan a week ago, it's Biden by 20 today. Of course the only poll that counts is to be taken tomorrow. No polling on Idaho, Mississippi or North Dakota.


It looks like Biden wins in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri. Still a toss-up in Washington state: They are counting mail-in ballots. Clear win for Sanders in North Dakota. (Really? North Dakota?)

Biden 153 to Sanders 89 delegates on March 10.

Total now is Biden 823 to Sanders 663. If you count Pete and Mike's delegates for Biden, and Liz's delegates for Sanders it gets even worse for Sanders. I still think Biden is going to walk into the convention with > 50% and win on the first ballot. (Delegates for candidates who have dropped out become free agents, and can vote as they please at the first ballot of the convention.)
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/11/20 11:20 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
It looks like Biden wins in Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri. Still a toss-up in Washington state: They are counting mail-in ballots. Clear win for Sanders in North Dakota. (Really? North Dakota?)

Biden 153 to Sanders 89 delegates on March 10.

Total now is Biden 823 to Sanders 663. If you count Pete and Mike's delegates for Biden, and Liz's delegates for Sanders it gets even worse for Sanders. I still think Biden is going to walk into the convention with > 50% and win on the first ballot. (Delegates for candidates who have dropped out become free agents, and can vote as they please at the first ballot of the convention.)


Agreed, the upcoming primaries in Ohio, Illinois, Florida, Arizona, then a week after, Georgia are all in Biden friendly territory. Sanders strength was in the very progressive west coast. Biden's in the more moderate to conservative south and Midwest. Flyover country.

As a numbers guy, I find it very interesting that on 4 Mar Sanders had a 20 point lead in Washington and an 11 point lead in Michigan. He lost both leads for whatever reason.

Larry Sabato in his Crystal Ball Report had an interesting point why Sanders is doing much worst in 2020 than in 2016. That being sanders received a lot of anti Clinton support in 2016. Biden isn't Hillary and he is more liked by democrats as a whole. Possible.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/11/20 05:36 PM
Well, apparently Bernie is looking forward to a 'debate' with Biden to settle it all. This is really important given that Bernie no longer, according to everybody, has a path to winning. I think what this means is that we are going to be entertained with yet another Democratic food fight in their ongoing effort to make sure they don't beat Trump.

Just gotta wonder - again.................
Why should Biden agree to such a debate?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/11/20 06:49 PM
You imagine that a bumbling, uncertain, and unpopular candidate like Biden will be able to beat Trump?

The way Bernie's supporters have been maligned and insulted over the course of the primaries, do you imagine they will just "vote blue"?

Young voters didn't even come out for Bernie this time, they certainly aren't going to come out and vote for Biden.

Biden has shown himself to be weak under pressure, Trump will apply pressure in copious amounts. We knew that this race would depend on turnout, democrats as always, feel that everyone is going to come out and vote for anybody with a D beside his name.

After four more years of Trump "socialism" is gonna start looking pretty good...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/11/20 06:52 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Why should Biden agree to such a debate?

Yeah, the race is over and Bernie's grasping at straws. Trump vs Biden is about the only thing left to talk about in this thread.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/12/20 01:01 AM
Biden has taken the lead in Washington State with 76% of the votes counted.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/washington?xid=ec_flip_hz_washington_d

The outlook for the 17 Mar primaries doesn't look good. If Sanders is having problems winning a very progressive state like Washington, I wouldn't expect too much in the more moderate to conservative states of the south and midwest. What you refer to as flyover country.


As of 11 Mar for the primaries on 17 Mar
Florida - Biden by 36
Ohio - Biden by 18
Illinois - Biden by 22
Arizona - Biden by 19

then on 24 Mar

Georgia - Biden by 33



Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/12/20 03:51 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
You imagine that a bumbling, uncertain, and unpopular candidate like Biden will be able to beat Trump?
According to polling by YouGov, Biden is the fifth most popular Democrat.

Quote
Young voters didn't even come out for Bernie this time, they certainly aren't going to come out and vote for Biden.
But apparently they are. "It's true that the raw number of young voters may be up in some states, particularly those where total turnout has gone up." It's also true that they are a smaller percentage of the electorate, because more Democrats, in general, have shown up.

Quote
Biden has shown himself to be weak under pressure, Trump will apply pressure in copious amounts. We knew that this race would depend on turnout, democrats as always, feel that everyone is going to come out and vote for anybody with a D beside his name.
Apparently your perception is not widely shared. Here Are The Voters Who Powered Biden To His 'Big Tuesday' Wins (NPR)
Quote
Biden came out ahead of Sanders on the question of who would be better in a crisis.

About half of Michigan voters said they thought Biden was best equipped to handle a crisis, compared to about 31% who sided with Sanders. In Missouri, Biden edged Sanders 61% to 26% on the question.


I agree with you, and Bernie, by the way
Quote
"Today, I say to the Democratic establishment, in order to win in the future, you need to win the voters who represent the future of our country," Sanders said. "And you must speak to the issues of concern to them."
Biden needs to do that. But, I think, ultimately, the Democratic nominee (likely Biden) will have the wind at his back, because Trump is so toxic and inept. Biden may not be exciting, but he's known, and that's something the electorate clearly wants.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/12/20 05:35 PM
The problem with Bernie remains exactly the same. Bernie does not give a single inch. He has stuck by his views for over 30 years and has not strayed even a bit. This is the reason, for instance, that he has such a poor record of getting legislation passed. There is no reason to believe anything would change should he become president except that he would be on TV more often.

Oh, and Saturday, I think, we will get to watch the Biden/Bernie food fight with, I suspect, Bernie REALLY having at Biden (who he also claim to be willing to support should Biden get the nomination) and after Bernie proves, during the 'debate', that Bernie is the scum of the earth, against all he (Bernie) believes, and hates the poor, sick, infirm, young, etc. So, if Biden does become the Democratic candidate, Bernie will have created quite a mountain to climb if he actually does 'support' Biden. I, for one, can't wait to see that!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/12/20 06:18 PM
I wish I shared your admiration for Joe Biden's ability to get things done.

He has promised to veto MFA if it crosses his desk, I guess that's all Democrats really want. He has voted multiple times to cut social security and Medicare. Strong issues for most Democrats...cutting those entitlements!

Democrats have made their choice, Biden will most likely be our next president. Maybe you're happy about that, I'm not. Perhaps in the coming years Biden will prove himself to be the dynamic, charismatic, leader who will unite the parties and the American people under one banner. Anything less than that and he will be defeated by a Republican in 2024 if he is able to run at all.

That's the problem with Biden. He has no agenda beyond winning the election and plans to spend his time laughing and ogling for the camera for the entire four years. World events are going to demand far more than Biden has to give.

Now more than ever, I can see that most Americans want things to be like they were before Trump. It's a conservative impulse, even among Democrats. I bet a lot of Trump voters feel the same way, because Trump was so obviously a mistake. Maybe Trump keeps some Evangelicals because they want the end of the world anyway. (If they could just get the Israelis to convert to Christianity! laugh )

From now until January, Trump will continue to do his best to destroy America. He can't help it. That's just Trump being Trump. Unless he dies, of course. Democrats are going to have to do some drastic stuff when they take over. New Deal kind of stuff. If Biden is President, he's going to have to sign the bills the Democratic congress sends him. The President can sabotage agencies but I highly doubt Biden would do that. He's going to put competent, reality-oriented experts in as department heads and cabinet posts. If public health demands it, we will wind up with single-payer, even if Biden opposes it ideologically. The corona virus and the market collapse together will make Biden a lot more of a socialist out of necessity.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Now more than ever, I can see that most Americans want things to be like they were before Trump.

I want things to be like they were before Reagan, like how they were in the New Deal era.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/12/20 11:11 PM
We would need a Depression and a leader like Roosevelt or Obama. The Depression may be on its way, could Biden fill the bill for a Leader?
Somehow, I don't see President Biden briskly leading the way to the future. If everything is in the toilet, he's just going to sign all the bills a Democratic congress sends him. And almost all of those are going to have input from some very smart people, even if most politicians are not especially smart. Democrats tend to listen to experts.

Don't forget, lots of Republicans say they don't believe in climate change or evolution even if they are standing in sea water up to their necks.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 12:54 AM
Quote
Now more than ever, I can see that most Americans want things to be like they were before Trump.

Yeah...everybody wants to go back in time. And nobody wants to plan for the future. We've been over and over all of Bernie's plans, so what are Biden's plans? He's made it clear he will veto MFA so he won't necessarily just pass what Democrats send him. When he speaks to the throngs at his rallies, what does he promise them? Hope? Change? Anything? Has he promised to take the country back to a better time?

If he just took us back to Obama's first two years it would be a lot better than the shite-show we have now. Remember back when constitutional democracy was a thing?

He could gives us a repaired ACA and force all states to expand their Medicaid up to the bottom of ACA eligibility. (Or just replace Medicaid with ACA that goes all the way to zero income.)

He could give us a public option in all states, which would quickly replace all other plans because it would be 15% cheaper for the same thing. That gets us to MFA, except ACA plans actually tend to be better than Medicare. For example, my ACA-compliant Blue Cross plan had a drug cap at $2000. I pay over $6000 per year for drugs under Medicare Part D.
Originally Posted by Ujest Shurly
We would need a Depression and a leader like Roosevelt or Obama. The Depression may be on its way, could Biden fill the bill for a Leader?

Biden's a little closer to Hoover than Roosevelt.
The FDR guy in this is obvious.
Hoover was an engineer with poor people skills. FDR was a very rich guy, more like Bloomberg. I doubt FDR went in thinking Bernie thoughts. But he saw what had to be done. He was more pragmatist than anything else.

Republicans, OTOH, fought him every step of the way.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 11:41 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
I wish I shared your admiration for Joe Biden's ability to get things done.

He has promised to veto MFA if it crosses his desk, I guess that's all Democrats really want. He has voted multiple times to cut social security and Medicare. Strong issues for most Democrats...cutting those entitlements!

Democrats have made their choice, Biden will most likely be our next president. Maybe you're happy about that, I'm not. Perhaps in the coming years Biden will prove himself to be the dynamic, charismatic, leader who will unite the parties and the American people under one banner. Anything less than that and he will be defeated by a Republican in 2024 if he is able to run at all.

That's the problem with Biden. He has no agenda beyond winning the election and plans to spend his time laughing and ogling for the camera for the entire four years. World events are going to demand far more than Biden has to give.
Biden evolved on gay marriage and pulled BAMZ!!! along for the ride. There is hope that ol' Joe will do the right and progressive thing. smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 11:43 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...From now until January, Trump will continue to do his best to destroy America. He can't help it...
Trump pulled out of the intermediate missile treaty to allow Putin to move his missiles closer to Europe, He allowed Putin in Venezuela, He trashed NATO, tried to pull out of Syria, and Africa. He did pull out of Afghanistan. However, he has not been able to substantially reduce Russian sanctions due to the opposition in the Senate and the House.

Furthermore, with the Corona virus opportunity, Trump may never get a better chance to destroy the US economy, even if Trump says in power after the election.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 01:58 PM
Wow Rick,
Your straight up red scare propaganda/imperialist now.

We have our military on RUSSIA’s literal border.

We have garrisoned the earth.

The economy isn’t run by one man and who the hell likes the current economy, with its biblical (no exaggeration) wealth inequality, mass precarity and enormous debt leverage?




Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 05:50 PM
If the Dems fail to remove The Jackass Trump, after his incredible, ongoing, very public, display of gross incompetence, and ignorance, then they flat out deserve to lose!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 05:55 PM
Quote
There is hope that ol' Joe will do the right and progressive thing.

Is there...? I don't think so. He'll do the best he can, but it isn't going to be enough. Biden is going to get the nomination because he isn't Bernie Sanders and he will win the presidency because he isn't Donald Trump.

So who is he? Will he repeat Obama's bail out of the banks in the coming recession? Will he ignore the working class like Obama? His corporate donors and sponsors will be pushing for that.

But he isn't Obama either.

Did you know that Biden has never had a job? He graduated from law school in 1969 and was elected to office in 1970.

"Working class Joe" has never "worked" a day in his life. "Lunchbox Joe" has never carried his lunchbox to a job. He has never worked at anything besides getting re-elected.

His father was a used car salesman.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/13/20 11:51 PM
I voted early today, for Joe Biden in Georgia's Democratic Primary. What I want is a return to the more normal times of say, the Obama administration. What I don't want is a gigantic leap over the Grand Canyon to the left.

I don't expect miracles from Joe, just for him to get us back on an even keel. More or less steady, reliable leadership. It wouldn't both me a bit if no new programs were ever proposed or passed, just as long as this country get back on the right track. That all I expect, no more, no less.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/20 12:53 AM
Quote
What I want is a return to the more normal times of say, the Obama administration.

Back in time....

What we really need is Dr. Who to take us back...back before it all went wrong. Then we never need to worry about the future.

What we've got is an uncertain future coming at us like gangbusters and there aint no going back.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/20 01:30 AM
I loved the first six doctors, but never could get back into it from the seventh doctor on.

If your idea is going fifty million miles left, just let me off the elevator. I doubt this nation has much life left in her due to party first politics anyway.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/20 03:04 AM
My goal is two steps to the left. Maybe drop Medicare enrollment to 55 over 10 years, raise the federal minimum wage to $10. That'd be about all you could expect with Bernie or Liz at the helm. I expect nothing from Biden.

I understand your nostalgia for those peaceful years when you could hang effigies of the president and call his children and wife vile names. A sort of calm between two despotic Republicans. Biden might get us four years of calm but then along comes another Republican and away we go again. I'd have been happy with ANY other candidate, even Bloomberg. I'm a lefty and a socialist but I'm also aware of what can and can't be accomplished in Washington.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/20 01:12 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
My goal is two steps to the left. Maybe drop Medicare enrollment to 55 over 10 years, raise the federal minimum wage to $10. That'd be about all you could expect with Bernie or Liz at the helm. I expect nothing from Biden.

I understand your nostalgia for those peaceful years when you could hang effigies of the president and call his children and wife vile names. A sort of calm between two despotic Republicans. Biden might get us four years of calm but then along comes another Republican and away we go again. I'd have been happy with ANY other candidate, even Bloomberg. I'm a lefty and a socialist but I'm also aware of what can and can't be accomplished in Washington.

I got you. Each of us has our reason why we vote the way we do. those reasons are import to each individual. A return to sanity is important to me. But I want that return without having to lurch us 50,000 miles to the left. That would be another total disruption in my mind, no better, no worst than Trump. I think each of us has our comfort zone, Sanders and warren are out of mine. Although any other Democrat would do nicely.

I've been comfortable with every president in my lifetime. I was born right after WWII. Trump, I'm not. But I see no reason to replace a president I'm uncomfortable with with another I would be uncomfortable with. I'm not a partisan and never have been an ideologue. I've always been happy with a medium between the two parties. I love divided government, the only real check on a presidents power. As congress members of the same party of the president are more part of the administration than members of the institution of congress. Little steps to the left and right are fine. No gigantic leaps across the Grand Canyon one way or the other. If Sanders were the nominee, I'd vote third party this November just like I did in 2016. Against both him and Trump. I'll vote for Biden in November if he is the nominee.

Sane, reliable, steady leadership with no lurches.
I doubt we could possibly make any grand leap to the left, even if Sanders was elected. He can only do so much with executive orders. He wouldn't get to make laws or even allocate the real budget without stealing money from somewhere else, like Trump. In fact, I think the Democratic majorities in congress might even rebel if Sanders got too far out there.

What you are worried about could only happen if a whole new slate of Socialist and left-wing Democrats got into congress at the same time as Sanders was President. How many Socialists, Social Democrats, and Democratic Socialists are there in congress? Three? And one of those is Sanders.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/14/20 10:13 PM
I believe firmly in Marxist sociocultural evolution. That society will evolve ultimately to communism. My communism isn't a stark soviet landscape but a science fiction future where everyone is rich and everything is shared.

Social democracy is the obvious next step, and we have working models in place. Over the last few years Bernie's agenda has become the agenda of the Democratic Party. It is not yet the agenda of the DNC.

This is the Boomers last gasp, the last analog generation before we went digital.
Millenials want those nice things that other countries have and they'll be taking over soon.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 12:05 AM
From what I can tell, most folks on this site are Sanders supporters. So is there any truth to this article?

"Bernie Bros warn of ‘massive exodus’ if Democrats nominate Joe Biden"

https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/berni...dus-if-democrats-nominate-joe-biden/amp/

I know in 2016 while the Democratic base voted for Hillary 89-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party. Sanders supporters did vote for Hillary, but by a 75-12 margin with 13% voting third party. If this about to happen again?

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-trump-2016-election-654320
I think they learned their lesson after years of Trump. That science fiction bright future has to be after we solve the climate problem. It's going to be pretty bleak until that is fixed. So not like something any of us will see in our lifetimes.

But I can see an end to money. So much is handled now electronically, it would be easy to just evolve that into a social credit system. Then the values assigned to certain activities would be controlled by the government rather than by the rich.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I think they learned their lesson after years of Trump. That science fiction bright future has to be after we solve the climate problem. It's going to be pretty bleak until that is fixed. So not like something any of us will see in our lifetimes.

But I can see an end to money. So much is handled now electronically, it would be easy to just evolve that into a social credit system. Then the values assigned to certain activities would be controlled by the government rather than by the rich.

The number of "Busters" is much lower than in 2016.

Busters are NOT "Bernie BRO's", they are "Bernie or Bust" voters.
A very very dear friend of mine was a Buster in 2016.
I am a bit apprehensive of asking her if she still has the same stance, because I am not in the mood for the venting she uncorked last time.
She's a wonderful person, but this is (or was) her peccadillo.
She hated Hillary then, she hates Hillary now. But Hillary isn't running, Joe is.

Another friend, a former associate I used to shoot film with, is already firmly in the Tulsi camp. She was Bernie first, then went to Stein in 2016. I got about ten minutes into debating the wisdom of voting Stein and gave up.
Again, a wonderful person, but that is her peccadillo.

I can say that I suspect that Friend #1 is no longer a Buster, but I am hesitant to say that with confidence just yet.

Anyway, that and a dime will get you the chance to look at a cup of coffee. I guess I'll make more inquiries...at some point.

For the record, and for Perotista's sake, I did vote for Sanders in the California primaries. Sanders won California but the math is not looking good elsewhere.
If, as it seems, that his path to the nomination is blocked, I'll vote "Democrat 2020", which probably means Biden.
I'll do it reluctantly and under protest but that's my vote.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 02:05 AM
Busters. I like that. Sounds like my grand daughter. She was going to Kennesaw State in 2016, a huge Sanders supporters. When Hillary became the nominee, she lost all interest in politics and never voted in the general. Now she's out of college, got a job, this year she hasn't expressed any interest either.

I don't know how Sanders supporters will react this year. There might be a change over in them. Sanders may have lost those college kids of 2016, replaced by college kids of 2020. Like by grand daughter in 2016, avid Sanders supporter, then nothing for 2020. Perhaps once out of college, the zeal ebbs. Loss of those young voters could explain why Sanders isn't doing nearly as good this year as compared to 2016

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 02:32 AM
It could easily happen. Say what you will about Biden, he's uninspiring and has a sketchy record on pretty much everything. I can't speak for whomever "Bernie Bros" might be but as a progressive I'm looking at 2024 and whether I'd rather have a lame duck Trump or an 80 year old Biden. It's probably going to depend entirely on his VP choice.


So the choice is going to be oatmeal or arsenic. I'd rather have the oatmeal, please. I did vote for Bernie, but he just doesn't have the votes. Still rather have the oatmeal...
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 01:35 PM
I agree. Hopefully, Biden chooses a fresh young face who he can groom for 2024. You probably prefer an ideologue, myself, someone more moderate. Personally I like Tammy Duckworth, Stacey Abrams, Klobuchar, perhaps Baldwin. The latter three are from swing states allowing Biden a better chance of winning them. Duckworth, a spunky Vet from Illinois. Just something about here I always liked.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 04:22 PM
I also would have liked to see Tammy Duckworth be a possible VP candidate or even a Presidential Candidate. However, she is ineligible; Senator Tammy Duckworth, despite being a Combat Veteran and a double amputee, is not a "Natural Born Us Citizen", she was born in Bangkok Thailand.

If she could run against President Donald (...) Trump*, she would be unassailable and probably unbeatable.

Tammy Duckworth

*Impeached
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 04:48 PM
My oldest daughter and son were also born in Bangkok Thailand and are citizens. American father, Thai mother who has since become a citizen. A lot of people seem to think one must be born within the confines of the U.S. border. That's not the case. We've had some presidential candidate born outside the borders.

George Romney Mexico
Goldwater, Arizona Territory
McCain, Panama
Cruz, Canada
Gabbard, American Samoa

There may be others, but these come readily to mind. This controversy will probably rage until the SCOTUS actually rules on what a natural born citizen is.

As far as I know, being born overseas is no big thing as long as one parent is a U.S. Citizen. That automatically makes the child a U.S. Citizen. Now naturally born, most constitutional scholars seems to think so. Not all, but a good majority. We really won't know until the SCOTUS rules.


Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 06:33 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
...say what you will about Biden, he's uninspiring...
Your fellow Dems had 17 candidates to pick from and chose the uninspiring one to run against and beat Trump. Hmm

Support blue, no matter who, please and thank you.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 06:55 PM
I think the choice of Biden had more to do with electability. He's the one seen as having the best chance of beating Trump. Not political philosophy. Most polls show that to be true. At least at this point in time. Now when the campaign begins, all the negative attack ads, the debates, the sowing of energy within one's supporters and a host of other things, remains to be seen. The Democrats don't need another ho hum campaign taking the election for granted as in 2016.

I like Joe, always have. But I do wish he was 10-15 years younger.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
So the choice is going to be oatmeal or arsenic. I'd rather have the oatmeal, please. I did vote for Bernie, but he just doesn't have the votes. Still rather have the oatmeal...

I was upset in 2016...this time I'm just disappointed.
I've learned a little something, about the so called youth vote, and I am ashamed to say that I should have learned it forty-something years ago.
Nothing's changed about this "youth vote" in America...it doesn't exist for the most part.
It just. flat. out. does. not. exist.

I have never missed an election in my life, not since I first turned eighteen.
But that's ME, and most of my friends were just like the nonexistent youth vote of today...they talked a lot, they protested, they marched, and then...they didn't bother to SHOW UP and PULL the goddamn levers.

Standing in line and pulling some levers in a box with a curtain is boring, it's not "cool".

And my theory on this is simple:
Aside from 9/11 and a "Pearl Harbor" that's very far in the past and far out in the Pacific Ocean, our youth have never experienced real honest to goodness domestic terrorism, bombing, foreign jackboots or out and out domestic tyranny.
Our youth have never witnessed anything that dire in their own land, at least not since the Civil War anyway.

I think that changes youthful perceptions of issues like voting.
And I guess it's just a fact about the human condition that it takes something that bad to motivate youth to do something that's considered boring and uncool.

Bernie is not going to make it, and it's a shame.
He needed the youth of America to take the reins and pull the levers, and they didn't.
And he will either be too old or he'll be dead by the time our youth finally wake up and realize what they need to do.


Trump is about the only person who believes Duckworth could not serve as President. He raised the same objection to Ted Cruz, and everybody pointed out at that time that being born to an American citizen parent who registers the birth with the State Department is enough. She was actually born to a US service man!

I think Trump may consider her unworthy because she's half Thai. Trump likes White men.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 08:49 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Trump is about the only person who believes Duckworth could not serve as President. He raised the same objection to Ted Cruz, and everybody pointed out at that time that being born to an American citizen parent who registers the birth with the State Department is enough. She was actually born to a US service man!

I think Trump may consider her unworthy because she's half Thai. Trump likes White men.

Your last sentence gave me a belly laugh. I know what you meant, but that made my day.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 09:14 PM
Quote
I like Joe, always have
Near as I can tell, you're a conservative so of course you'd like Joe.

I used to feel a lot the same as you, that the best government was a government mostly held in check. The way it's turned out is that anything to help the working class has been held in check but everything that helps the wealthy has run wild. The top 10% are living the American dream. And no one seems terribly concerned about the rest of us.

I dunno if this is a left/right divide or actual class warfare.

Government right now is engaged in taking food from nearly a million people. Trump announced last time her ran that he would not cut Medicare and Social Security. He has promised this time that he will cut them. Conservatives are fine with letting millions of children go hungry, letting millions of people live on the streets, letting millions of people go without medical or dental care. It is a part of the human condition and not their responsibility. Certainly nothing government should meddle in.

And if it meddles and threatens to tax us to create fewer poor people then it is SOCIALIST.

50 million miles to the left.

And every year conservatives aim to create more poor people, more sick people, more hungry, more homeless, more uneducated, more saddled with unwanted children and most importantly MORE BILLIONAIRES!

What'll Biden do to help reduce plastic pollution? Any federal help to clean it up? How about some aid to the emerging bio-char industry where biowaste can generate power and sequester carbon at the same time. Will there be people around him who have ever heard of biochar?

That's not far left stuff. It's common sense maintenance.

Maybe we can't pull many people out of poverty all at once, but maybe we could lessen their pain?

Fecking HELL NO. Every Republican lawmaker in Washington would vote against anything like that. And you'd likely agree with them.

I don't hold it against you. I don't understand it but I'm aware that half the adults in the nation hold that very opinion. To varying degrees.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/15/20 09:46 PM
I'm probably considered a right wing nut on this site because I don't care for Sanders politics. Although I respect the man. But I don't go around calling him names just because I disagree with his politics. There's way too much of that going on these days.

There's been policies and things every president has done in my life time I supported and things every president has done I disagreed with. Trump is in that same boat as Obama, both Bush's, Bill Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, LBJ, JFK, IKE. Now I was too young to personally experience Truman.

What I do miss is the era when both parties had their conservative and liberal wings. When there wasn't this great divide between parties. When both parties were more pragmatic than in today's ideologue state.

Sure, we need a lot of improvement back then. We need improvement today. Lots have change since then and for the most part the better. Fact is I'm not looking for any more jerks left or right. Just someone to get us back on a sane path for the betterment of the country. I hate being jerked around.

The thing is I'm not a partisan, both major parties disgust me with their party first attitude. I'm also not an ideologue, I'll weigh each issue by itself and decide whether to support or oppose that issue on what I deem its merits. Not because some political party told me to support or oppose. If that is being far right, so be it. I take it being independent minded.

Originally Posted by perotista
I'm probably considered a right wing nut on this site because I don't care for Sanders politics. Although I respect the man. But I don't go around calling him names just because I disagree with his politics. There's way too much of that going on these days.

There's been policies and things every president has done in my life time I supported and things every president has done I disagreed with. Trump is in that same boat as Obama, both Bush's, Bill Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon, LBJ, JFK, IKE. Now I was too young to personally experience Truman.

What I do miss is the era when both parties had their conservative and liberal wings. When there wasn't this great divide between parties. When both parties were more pragmatic than in today's ideologue state.

Sure, we need a lot of improvement back then. We need improvement today. Lots have change since then and for the most part the better. Fact is I'm not looking for any more jerks left or right. Just someone to get us back on a sane path for the betterment of the country. I hate being jerked around.

The thing is I'm not a partisan, both major parties disgust me with their party first attitude. I'm also not an ideologue, I'll weigh each issue by itself and decide whether to support or oppose that issue on what I deem its merits. Not because some political party told me to support or oppose. If that is being far right, so be it. I take it being independent minded.

If you were a "right wing nut" you never would have been invited here in the first place.

Anyway, I actually like your sig line...trouble is, it's an anachronism today...these days. Can that be fixed? Yeah, of course it can, but right now we're sorta stuck with the tribalism, which will have to burn itself out before we can again recreate bipartisanship.
McConnell just said a couple of weeks ago that he VOWS to return to nonstop 100% obstructionism if a Democrat is POTUS in 2021 and he's still in power.

Pero...that IS our problem.
I think greger is so far on the left, he's mistaking an Independent, for a Republican. Everybody who does not always agree with you, is not out to kill you! Sure, there are some people who would just like you dead. But you've got to recognize the difference. I'm actually a fellow lefty (voted for Sanders) but from everything I have read, perotista is a centrist. Much like a lot of Democratic Party members.

He could have been a Liberal Republican, but they don't have those anymore.

As for the future of America, I'm all for it being a lot more socialist, for things that make sense. But they have to make sense. They have to work. I think the government is very good at doing a lot of things, and privatizing those things just let's somebody make a lot of money by exploiting underpaid workers. But there are things we don't all need like professional football. When government starts financing football, I say no.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 12:04 AM
Quote
The thing is I'm not a partisan, both major parties disgust me with their party first attitude.

What disgusts me is that neither party is doing anything to address any of the issues that are facing us. Neither party. Not a single issue.

Even emergency legislation in relation to a world wide pandemic which threatens to destroy the world economy and take countless lives....McConnell sent it back to the house because it might cost rich people money. The he sent the Senate home for the weekend. Many are in self isolation. Some infected. This is small government in action...closed on weekends.

What if they all get sick and they don't have a quorum? Is that the end of it? everything just stops?

This is the do nothing government that everybody wants it seems. All that shite will work itself out, none of it is constitutionally mandated and it's every man for himself.

Perfect.

This is the government that Joe Biden helped build...He will fight hard to keep it just like it is. And something about going back to what it used to be...

It's never been good, folks. And the way our dysfunctional government works it's never going to be good. It has most certainly never been great. But it could be. If you would all just put me in charge and let me handle it.............!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 12:14 AM
No doubt on the obstructionism. The difference is I can see obstructionism coming from both side. For me in the senate, Reid, Schumer, McConnell, there isn't much difference. I do long for the days of Lott and Daschle, Mitchell and Dole, even Baker and Byrd. None of them being the party leaders in the senate would obstruct just to obstruct. None of them would have reverted to the nuclear option either. I suppose I'm just an old foggie waxing for the good old days.

I hate tribalism as you put it. I also hate Republicans automatically opposing any Democratic proposal and Democrats automatically opposing Republican proposals. Regardless of who proposes something, it ought to be considered on its merits, not by who proposed it or who is president.

Sure, there are issues where no compromise available. But I'd wager on 90% of the issues something could be worked out between parties. That is if they had a mind to.

I blame Hastert and his Hastert rule for this. That was the start. Prior to him, it was very possible for the minority party in the house to get legislation passed with some of the majority party voting for it. His rule, no legislation could be passed without a majority of Republicans being in favor of it.

I usually stick to my election forecasts without getting involved in too many issues. But I do believe that every piece of legislation and appointment should be brought to a vote on the floor of the senate. All this tabling of bills passed by the house, whether it was Reid tabling the bill or McConnell is just plain wrong in my book.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 12:20 AM
Quote
he's mistaking an Independent, for a Republican.
He's a right leaning independent. Just like I'm a left leaning independent. We aren't enemies but there are several shades of ideology between us.

He wants to keep more poor people poor so the rich can prosper further.

That's what I'm throwing into the debate because that is the result of Centrist policies. We haven't been lurching right and left. We've gone straight down the center and only changed parties without ever changing policies.

Look around the world. It's a mess. If we'd made any effort at all we could have cleaned things up as we went along. Mighta got in the rich folks pockets though...
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 12:29 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I think greger is so far on the left, he's mistaking an Independent, for a Republican. Everybody who does not always agree with you, is not out to kill you! Sure, there are some people who would just like you dead. But you've got to recognize the difference. I'm actually a fellow lefty (voted for Sanders) but from everything I have read, perotista is a centrist. Much like a lot of Democratic Party members.

He could have been a Liberal Republican, but they don't have those anymore.

As for the future of America, I'm all for it being a lot more socialist, for things that make sense. But they have to make sense. They have to work. I think the government is very good at doing a lot of things, and privatizing those things just let's somebody make a lot of money by exploiting underpaid workers. But there are things we don't all need like professional football. When government starts financing football, I say no.

I don't mind being call right wing or left wing. On another site I've been called both and much worse. Yeah, no more liberal Rockefeller Republicans from the Northeast, no more southern conservative democrats either. Both parties have long ago shed their unwanted wing. There has been times I think both parties want to get rid of their moderates. Those in the center, center right and center left. That's a shame, it brought balance to both parties. But that is the past.

I'm not opposed to change either, as long as it does make sense. I can't understand all the time and energy the Democrats put into which bathroom a transgender could use. They're much more important issues to be addressed. That left me scratching my head.

As a nation we've been moving left since FDR. slowly, but surely. Right now I'm looking for some steady, reliable leadership. Someone who realizes getting the ship of state back on even keel. Bring some sanity to governance and this country. Once that is done, then we can address these other things. We're taking on water now, far as I'm concerned that lurch left can wait until we bail most of that water out.

Most of Sanders Ideas won't go anywhere even with a democratic congress. Like you said, there are too many center left democrats. This nation isn't ready for them today, perhaps in 2024 once everything is straighten out. Who knows?

Perhaps in 20 years, Sanders agenda will have become the law of the land. But not today, not in 2020. I'm also a political realist.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 12:41 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
The thing is I'm not a partisan, both major parties disgust me with their party first attitude.

What disgusts me is that neither party is doing anything to address any of the issues that are facing us. Neither party. Not a single issue.

Even emergency legislation in relation to a world wide pandemic which threatens to destroy the world economy and take countless lives....McConnell sent it back to the house because it might cost rich people money. The he sent the Senate home for the weekend. Many are in self isolation. Some infected. This is small government in action...closed on weekends.

What if they all get sick and they don't have a quorum? Is that the end of it? everything just stops?

This is the do nothing government that everybody wants it seems. All that shite will work itself out, none of it is constitutionally mandated and it's every man for himself.

Perfect.

This is the government that Joe Biden helped build...He will fight hard to keep it just like it is. And something about going back to what it used to be...

It's never been good, folks. And the way our dysfunctional government works it's never going to be good. It has most certainly never been great. But it could be. If you would all just put me in charge and let me handle it.............!


For our government to be good, we have to have political leaders from both parties that put the country ahead of party politics. Democrats worked great with IKE. Eisenhower actually had LBJ, then Majority Leader in the senate over to the White House three times a week to discuss getting his agenda through congress. JFK and LBJ worked very closely with Everett Dirksen, then the minority leader in the senate to get things through like Medicare and the civil rights and voting rights acts. More recently Reagan and Speaker Tip O'Neal worked great together. Compromise and give and take, on toward the future.

Good governance is a two way street. Politics is the art of achieving the possible. A good politician grabs what is possible and puts what is impossible off to another day. Or administration or congress or whatever. When it comes to politics, I'm a realist, not an ideologue.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 12:50 AM
Quote
I blame Hastert and his Hastert rule for this.
Yeah that's a biggie.
Quote
I usually stick to my election forecasts without getting involved in too many issues.
I love bandying about the issues and watching them play out in real time. Guessing how each scandal or crisis or pandemic is going to turn out. And your knowledge and deft handling of polls here is an invaluable resource to the debate, because I will sometimes just make shite up out of my head for the sake of the argument. I do this for fun y'know.

I'm an incredibly useful resource when it comes to election forecasts!

Anything I want to happen will never happen. If I dare to ever get excited about a candidate they will walk off a cliff. First it was Beto...then I went for Liz. Finally Bernie, it looked for a moment like he had a lock...I've made it very clear over the months that I considered Biden to be the worst case scenario.

And here we are.

This isn't a new thing. Just a fact of life here on the left. And this is why left leaning voters just sit home. It's pointless, it's hopeless. Who honestly cares. Your favorite guy will never win but here, vote for this guy you don't like instead...meh.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 01:04 AM
Quote
Good governance is a two way street.

And I believe that it was the Republican party that changed the flow of traffic. It's been nothing but head on collisions ever since.

Maybe I'm wrong and Biden will turn things around. I hope so
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 01:07 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I blame Hastert and his Hastert rule for this.
Yeah that's a biggie.
Quote
I usually stick to my election forecasts without getting involved in too many issues.
I love bandying about the issues and watching them play out in real time. Guessing how each scandal or crisis or pandemic is going to turn out. And your knowledge and deft handling of polls here is an invaluable resource to the debate, because I will sometimes just make shite up out of my head for the sake of the argument. I do this for fun y'know.

I'm an incredibly useful resource when it comes to election forecasts!

Anything I want to happen will never happen. If I dare to ever get excited about a candidate they will walk off a cliff. First it was Beto...then I went for Liz. Finally Bernie, it looked for a moment like he had a lock...I've made it very clear over the months that I considered Biden to be the worst case scenario.

And here we are.

This isn't a new thing. Just a fact of life here on the left. And this is why left leaning voters just sit home. It's pointless, it's hopeless. Who honestly cares. Your favorite guy will never win but here, vote for this guy you don't like instead...meh.
Meh? I don't think I ever missed an election. At least presidential since 1968 when one had to be 21 to vote. I started off this year with Hickenlooper, then Steyer, then I suppose Biden. In 2016, it was Webb as my first choice, when he decided not to campaign, I switched to Kasich, when Trump and Clinton won the nomination, I voted for Johnson. Not necessarily a vote for Johnson as it was a vote against both Trump and Clinton. Some 9 million of us did that, voted against both major party candidates. Any third name on the ballot would have sufficed.

You know I said more on this site tonight than I probably have since I joined.

As far as the November election, in the swing states Biden does around 3-5 points better than Sanders against Trump. Biden wins Florida, North Carolina, Arizona where Sanders loses to Trump. So at the moment, being a numbers guy, Biden looks the better choice. Again I'm not very ideological. Once the general election campaign begins, that's a whole new ball game with all the negative attack ads etc. Polls this far out are basically useless except to give us a good indication of how things stand today.
Last political contribution I sent in was John Edwards, just before he crashed. I think I'm the kiss of death, so I refrain from making any more contributions!

Hasturd was the problem alright: He was a college coach, so he brought the concept that winning was more important than anything else. He played right into America's fixation on sports. In order to win, your team had to be on the offensive, initiate the play, and accept nothing from the other team. Since his reign, we have had zero cooperation between the benches in congress. There used to be a lot of cooperation, a lot of quid pro quo, which is exactly what a legislative body is supposed to do.

There still is a LOT of legislation needed that both sides could agree on, but they each try to lard up the bills with their pet projects. We need the ability to get bills stripped of their riders if they can't pass both houses. Likewise, I think Obama should have just given the senate 30 days to consider his SC nominee and then declared him to be a member of the court. Nothing in the constitution says the senate leader can veto a supreme court nominee.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 02:54 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Last political contribution I sent in was John Edwards, just before he crashed. I think I'm the kiss of death, so I refrain from making any more contributions!

Hasturd was the problem alright: He was a college coach, so he brought the concept that winning was more important than anything else. He played right into America's fixation on sports. In order to win, your team had to be on the offensive, initiate the play, and accept nothing from the other team. Since his reign, we have had zero cooperation between the benches in congress. There used to be a lot of cooperation, a lot of quid pro quo, which is exactly what a legislative body is supposed to do.

There still is a LOT of legislation needed that both sides could agree on, but they each try to lard up the bills with their pet projects. We need the ability to get bills stripped of their riders if they can't pass both houses. Likewise, I think Obama should have just given the senate 30 days to consider his SC nominee and then declared him to be a member of the court. Nothing in the constitution says the senate leader can veto a supreme court nominee.
I agree that Garland should have had a vote in the senate on confirmation. With 54 GOP senators at the time, it was a stupid political ploy. McConnell had more than enough senators to defeat or not confirm Garland. He should have had a floor vote. Obama or any other president can't appoint or declare someone to the SCOTUS without senate confirmation. The Constitution states as such. Article II, Section 2. In the era of paybacks, I suppose that was McConnell's way of getting back at Schumer for saying the senate wouldn't take up or confirm any of G.W. Bush's SCOTUS nominees in his last 19 months of his presidency. These things have a habit of coming back around on you.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/schumer-in-2007-dont-confirm-any-bush-supreme-court-nominee

Just like the nuclear option, bad mistake. But when you have both leaders in the senate putting party first, I'd expect no less. I like the idea of having some of the minority party give their consent to any SCOTUS nominee with the 60 vote cloture option. That prevented any extremist from being appointed and confirmed when the senate and president are of the same party. Doing away with minority rights in the senate is the last thing I would have thought the Democrats would do. But then again, we're talking Harry Reid. Him and McConnell are two peas in a pod when it comes to party first.

We're paying a price for Reid's first use of the nuclear option for a short term political gain. I hope he still thinks it was worth it. I realize Reid excluded the SCOTUS, but these thing escalate, McConnell adding the SCOTUS was no surprise. Soon the filibuster will be just a footnote in history as the nuclear option will be applied to all legislation.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 03:10 AM
The early Obama years would have been a lot better without Reid and Pelosi. I will be most disappointed if Pelosi does not step down as she promised.

Which is to say....they'll beg her to stay and she will.
Originally Posted by perotista
As a nation we've been moving left since FDR. slowly, but surely.

Au contraire. Since 1980 we've been watching the Right systematically erase every aspect of the New Deal. And I do say "watching" because Dems have just sat and watched, seldom fighting, sometimes helping.

You've got to be kidding. The only things we've moved left on were social issues, women's equality, race, environment...and as of January 2017 ALL of THAT came to a screeching halt and began moving BACKWARD with a vengeance.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 11:37 AM
Always sort of a history buff, after 1994 midterms when the GOP took back congress, Bill Clinton adjusted and went on in my opinion to have a very good presidency. After 2010, Obama didn't adjust to the new Republican House and continued on as if he still had that 257-178 Majority. He accomplished very little except by use of his phone and pen, executive orders.

I'm biased here, my top three presidents in my lifetime that I have personal experienced are 1 Eisenhower, 2 JFK, 3 Bill Clinton
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 11:55 AM
I think we see things differently there. Sure when we had Republicans presidents for the most part the movement left slowed to a crawl. But the question is how far left does one want to go. I have no problem moving left in a slow steady manner. But I don't want leaps and bounds. I don't think the American People wants gigantic leaps either. Not as a whole.

We seen what happened when Obama went full fledged ACA in 2009/10. The American people weren't ready for it and that resulted in a 63 seat loss. Bill Clinton did the same thing in 1993/94 which resulted in a 54 seat loss. The Republicans gained control of the house for the first time in 40 years.

There's a comfort zone to most people. It okay to push that comfort zone to the edges, but don't go over. If you want a giant leap, you have to make sure the people are behind that leap. I think one has to be a realist when it comes to politics. One needs to realize what is possible and what isn't. What will cause a giant blow back and what won't. Numbers can be very useful here.

Sometimes it takes years to bring the people to accept a major change in governance or in their lives. The trick is to know when the people are ready. JFK realized this with Medicare, it went no where and he didn't push it. LBJ got it passed with bipartisan support. Compare that to the ACA which was a one party affair. LBJ went on with civil rights, voting rights and more. The time was ripe during LBJ, not so during JFK.

If we get a Democratic president this November, I'd advise him to be very aware of how much the people are ready for. Push the edge of change to the edges of their comfort zone, but don't go over. Sometimes it takes time to win over the people. Push beyond their comfort zone, I'll guarantee the Democrats will lose the house in 2022. Learn from history, become a realist as to what can and can't be done.

Politics is the art of the possible. The good politician knows this, grabs the possible and put the impossible off until another day. If not, all progress stops dead cold when the other party regains control of congress because of an overstep at the time.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 02:22 PM
Couldn't disagree more, that the country has moved left, for a multitude of observable reasons.

This countries gone so far right we have Nazi's being courted by the openly fascist political party.

Liberal's on the other hand, are fascists with plausible deniability (yeah, I know, they're O.K. with Gay and mixed marriages but economically they are birds of a feather with Republicans).

We have seen the wholesale sell off of public goods and assets achieved since FDR (good job Boomers!) while denying any improvements and additions since Reagen.

Both political parties are now wholly owned by corporations thru the purchase of the ballot box and, on the democrat side, voter suppression and ballot rigging.

Inequality has only grown over the last forty years thru legislation and Capitalist forces. Hardle a leftist movement.

Could go on but to say the country has moved left is absurd by any measure.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 04:32 PM
Probably depends on one's point of view. I grew up in the 1950's when the only safety net was social security and basically nothing else. Charities and Churches took care of the poor along with neighbors. There was a free medical clinic in the town about 8 miles from our farm which also took care of those who couldn't afford medical fees. Volunteer doctors and nurses. Now this was in a era when doctors would come to your home, you didn't visit the doctors office except in case of an emergency. Anyone remember that? I wonder how anyone could say this country has moved right, we fixed a bunch of social issues, added things like Medicare, medicaid, the minimum wage and a ton of other things.

But I suppose moving left or right depends on what tint of glasses one is looking through.

Onto tomorrows primaries, the latest updated polling information. But take these numbers with a grain of salt as we don't know how the corona virus will affect turnout. But if things go fairly normal, here are the numbers compliment of Nate Silver and 538.

Arizona Biden 55% Sanders 32%
Florida Biden 65% Sanders 24%
Illinois Biden 59% Sanders 29%
Ohio Biden 58% Sanders 32%

It seems to me it's safe to assume Biden wins all four. But by what margin depends on voter turnout.
Originally Posted by perotista
Probably depends on one's point of view. I grew up in the 1950's when the only safety net was social security and basically nothing else. Charities and Churches took care of the poor along with neighbors. There was a free medical clinic in the town about 8 miles from our farm which also took care of those who couldn't afford medical fees. Volunteer doctors and nurses. Now this was in a era when doctors would come to your home, you didn't visit the doctors office except in case of an emergency. Anyone remember that? I wonder how anyone could say this country has moved right, we fixed a bunch of social issues, added things like Medicare, medicaid, the minimum wage and a ton of other things.

But I suppose moving left or right depends on what tint of glasses one is looking through.

Ask yourself how doctors and nurses could afford to be volunteers back then, and then ask yourself if those docs and nurses could still afford to do that on an expanded scale, and then ask yourself if you remember any of those poor patients getting heart surgery or dialysis at one of those clinics.

By the way, are you under the impression that our "churches and charities" are able to shoulder the entire load?
When is the last time you visited a food bank?

[Linked Image from media3.giphy.com]

They are stretched to the MAX right now.
I grew up in the same time period.
By the way, it was ILLEGAL to run health insurance as a PROFIT enterprise back then, did you forget?
Originally Posted by perotista
We seen what happened when Obama went full fledged ACA in 2009/10. The American people weren't ready for it and that resulted in a 63 seat loss. Bill Clinton did the same thing in 1993/94 which resulted in a 54 seat loss.

That had nothing to do with "the people" and everything to do with paid astroturfers like Frank Luntz, who invented phrases like "government takeover of healthcare" and promoted terms like "death panels" and "unplugging Grandma".

Don't take my word for it.
Meet Wendell Potter, one of the most outspoken healthcare reform advocates in a generation.

Wendell Potter (dot com)

Quote
Prior to his resignation in 2008, Potter was vice president of corporate communications for the health insurance company CIGNA.


When's the last time you saw a health insurance executive apologize to Michael Moore?



The reason there was such a backlash to the ACA had NOTHING to do with the people, and EVERYTHING to do with an NRA level corporate smear campaign to tarnish it to the point where people would freak out.

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

And if you are sincerely interested in learning more, and you can spare an hour of your viewing time, please check this out.

Yes, it's good old Wendell Potter again...



And keep in mind that he worked for CIGNA.

CIGNA is not a slapdash organization.
The company ranked No. 73 in the 2018 Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 04:58 PM
From absurd to the sublime.

As a numbers oracle what was the cost of an education then as compared to today. Ditto housing, transport medicine, household debt, corporate debt, labor share, Labor organization, etc etc...

Your nostalgic reminiscences is not an argument. It's straight up boomer fantasy.

Leftism is a political, economic and social ideology. It has traditions and precedents but that would require an honest conversation. Not some self styling definitions your currently offering.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 05:00 PM
Your describing the fascist state using the organs of propaganda to get a desired result.

Been happening for the entire Democratic primary by the way.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 05:44 PM
Wow, I just stated how it was in a country of approximately 150 million when we were still considered an rural country instead of an urban one. That's a starting point, did we move left from there or did we move right from there? That was the question. A number of posters have posted we went right, I don't think so. We went left and have been going left since FDR. Slow but surely.

Could those same churches, charities, neighbors etc. helping each other out do the same in an urban environment of today with a country of around 330 million? That's probably fantasy to think so. We were much more self, family, community reliant back then. More neighbor friendly and more willing to help one's neighbor.

I just pointed out a starting point for the left or right direction we as a country have taken. Now I know my neighbors would give me help if I needed it, I would help them. How many people today even know their neighbor?

My point is we have definitely moved left, not right. If you think we've moved right, please let me know how. I'm all ears.
Originally Posted by perotista
Wow, I just stated how it was in a country of approximately 150 million when we were still considered an rural country instead of an urban one. That's a starting point, did we move left from there or did we move right from there? That was the question. A number of posters have posted we went right, I don't think so. We went left and have been going left since FDR. Slow but surely.

Could those same churches, charities, neighbors etc. helping each other out do the same in an urban environment of today with a country of around 330 million? That's probably fantasy to think so. We were much more self, family, community reliant back then. More neighbor friendly and more willing to help one's neighbor.

I just pointed out a starting point for the left or right direction we as a country have taken. Now I know my neighbors would give me help if I needed it, I would help them. How many people today even know their neighbor?

My point is we have definitely moved left, not right. If you think we've moved right, please let me know how. I'm all ears.

I already tried my best.
I think you're maybe a little too focused on sensationalized accounts of whiny loud types who serve as little more than attention whores.
There are PLENTY of those on the Left just as there are plenty on the Right.
Here...here at The Rant, there is absolutely ZERO payoff for a sick old f*** like me, so I assure you I have NO agenda.
So you can be sure that you are speaking to a genuine left leaner.

I am not here to "WIN an ARGUMENT". It won't pay any of my bills.
I am only here to discuss and learn.
If am right on something, then you get to learn something.
If I am wrong on something, then I get to learn something.

Leon Russell once did a song called "Magic Mirror" in which he penned the following phrase:

"The Left ones think I'm Right, the Right ones think I'm wrong."

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 06:09 PM
I grew up in the 50's too. Did you know the population of the US was only 152 million people then? Jobs paid enough that my mom could stay home and take care of the kids. Steam trains were still plying the rails. The American manufacturing system was going gangbusters to supply everything that the world needed because their own productivity had been shattered by WW2. We were the only industrial nation still standing. Good times!

I remember apartheid. So maybe times weren't good for everyone. My queer uncle drowned himself. Girls who got pregnant were shunned, often driven from their families. Whatever boy knocked her up was lauded as quite the cocksman!

We've barely evolved beyond menstruation huts

It wasn't Democrats who made a big deal about transgenders and bathrooms, we just tried to let them take a pee at school without embarrassing themselves. It was conservatives that flew off the handle. Wasn't us in the bathrooms making them show us their genitals to be sure. It was yall. Funny thing was...it was dykey girls getting thrown out of girls rooms, the transgirls were too pretty for anybody to even question them.

It was an issue that needed to be addressed, where some sort of policy needed to be agreed upon. Cases were hitting the courts, and schools are government entities. The Centrist answer, as always was to do nothing. Like everything else, it will take care of itself, best if we just don't talk about uncomfortable stuff. How bout those Mets anyway...........

And straight down the center we go, a runaway train. Unable to turn right or left. Unable to slow down. Unable to react when there is a crisis. Unable to help the people we hurt. Unable to stop hurting them.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 06:24 PM
Quote
We went left and have been going left since FDR. Slow but surely.

Yep. Marxist socioeconomic theory requires it. Look how close we just came to electing a self proclaimed socialist!

There have been setbacks along the way. Trump was one, Biden another, but the omnipotence of Marxism says we will overcome this and the leftward movement will continue. Leftists can't seem to see it as clearly as conservatives.

Originally Posted by Greger
The American manufacturing system was going gangbusters to supply everything that the world needed because their own productivity had been shattered by WW2. We were the only industrial nation still standing. Good times!

Actually, by 1949, at the latest, that whole "last man standing" thing was a memory.

The Italian Economic Miracle

The European Economy Since 1945

Quote
Consequently, by the end of World War II, the United States had opened up a huge lead in levels of output and productivity. But this also meant that there existed an extraordinary backlog of technological and organizational knowledge ready for Europe's commercial use. By licensing American technology, capitalizing on American produ ers' knowledge of mass-production methods, and adopting American personnel-management practices, Europe could close the gap. [...]

Catch-up was facilitated by solidaristic trade unions, cohesive employers associations, and growth-minded governments working together to mobilize savings, finance investment, and stabilize wages at levels consistent with full employment. The problem of getting a set of interdependent industries up and running simultaneously was solved by extramarket mechanisms ranging from government planning agencies, state holding companies, and industrial conglomerates in Western Europe to wholesale nationalization and central direction of the economy in the East. The capacity expansion needed to efficiently operate these scale-intensive technologies was financed by patient banks in long-standing relationships with their industrial clients.

In a nutshell, then, opportunities for catch-up and convergence were realized because of the conformance, or more colloquially the "fit," between the structure of the Western European economy and the economic and technological imperatives of the day. The result was a period of exceptionally rapid growth from the end of World War II through the 1960s.


I've posted pictures of a few European goods owned by my parents and grandparents pre and postwar. My favorite, a grand old deluxe hi-fi radio, now long gone, was given to me by my grandmother, a Blaupunkt SW/LW/AM/FM receiver made in 1951.
How I wish I could have afforded to repair it.

Here's an identical one.

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

The entire reason "It's IMPORTED!" became such a well-worn phrase in this country is precisely BECAUSE firms like Bayer, AEC, Siemens, Telefunken, Fiat, Leica, Mercedes, Renault, Blaupunkt and thousands of others were able to rebuild and restart manufacturing within a few short years after the devastation of the war.

Yes...WITH OUR HELP, it is acknowledged. That we HELPED them is not in dispute. What is in dispute is some notion that somehow for thirty-five to forty years after the war we only enjoyed dominance due to the devastation of WW2.
Sorry, but from a manufacturing and export point of view, that only lasted maybe four or five years for most countries.
Even JAPAN restarted its manufacturing with a vengeance too.

That is the whole reason the United States suddenly began seeing the flood of imported cars, clothing, cameras, business machines, radios, foods and vast quantities of elegant luxuries from across the water.
Not to mention millions of those cute little death traps known as VW Bugs.
Every American suddenly wanted one of those cute little miniature Sony TV sets, too.

We were only "the last man standing" for a very short handful of months. By the the time Ike got elected in 1953, European manufacturing was in good shape, thanks in part to Truman's Marshall Plan.

PS: Today "It's imported!!" is largely meaningless because today, we IMPORT damn near EVERYTHING...even critical pharmaceuticals and defense technology.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 06:31 PM
As for the ACA, the people weren't ready to be taken out of their comfort zone. Numbers would have told the Democrats that. Sure the Democrats would be for it, the Republicans against it, but what about the 40% or so in-between? The non-affiliated. Most were comfortable with what they had. They didn't want the apple cart upset. Sure there needed something done for the uninsured. But how to approach that?

Go to a completely new and different system or to address the problem of the uninsured? A good period of education, information providing, keeping the people informed what it would do or wouldn't do was needed to prevent the disaster of 2010 elections. I look on this differently than most folks here. The people as a whole wasn't ready for the ACA when it was passed and signed into law. If they were, 2010 wouldn't have happened. Blame Frank Luntz if you will. But I more akin to Blame the Democrats for not informing the people the way they should have. But that is history. Sometimes these things take time, time the die hards can't wait on even if it would mean more success in the future.

I've always wondered if the Democrats and Obama hadn't rushed headlong into the ACA before the people were ready for it, what Obama could have accomplished in the grand scheme of things if the democrats still controlled the House. He got the ACA passed, but little else. Sometimes it takes time to bring the people around, especially with major legislation.

Get those in-betweeners on your side, then proceed. I'm sure there was a lot more that could have been accomplished by Obama and company if they'd been willing to take the time to convince the people about the merits of the ACA. Put it off for a couple of years, concentrate what could be accomplished without upsetting the balance.

I've seen this many times. A new president comes in thinks he has a mandate, over does it. Then suffers great losses in the first midterm or lose the house and sometimes the senate also.

Was it worth it, I suppose that is up to you all to decide. I personally think waiting a couple of years, slowly but surely bring the people on board while accomplishing other very important things in the mean time would have been preferable to basically one and done. That is except for executive orders.

But we view things differently. I in what might have been for the entire 8 years of Obama, you as in we got the ACA, to heck with all the rest.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 06:35 PM
We've been thru this already haven't we?

There were three left wing political purges in this country. (O.K. you could argue four).

The 20's, 50's and 70's.

There are no left wing political parties in the U.S. Of any account anyway.

there are only two right wing ones. One of them is O.K. with homosexuality and somewhat with race. Economically, there's not a great deal of difference, symbolized with the candidate the Democratic party/media is backing and the one it's kneecappings.

Unless your working off of another 'Left' template of identity politics while ignoring economics and class, I have seen no leftist progress, only regression economically and politically, IMO.

As far as going left I see no chance of that with political and media obstacles and no Leftists political parties large enough to take advantage of opportunities like there were in the 30's. AFL-CIO is a paid off shell, no Anarchists, socialist or communist parties as there are in other countries. I see fascism in our near future as a left wing option has been denied by the liberal party leaders.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 06:38 PM
Your speaking of your age group and class. Look harder at the numbers.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 07:19 PM
The very fact that Obama got the ACA passed at all was a miracle of time and pure luck. Obama lost the entire congress in the election of 2010. Remember, too, when Do Nothing Mitch declared, publicly, that he would stop any and all legislation with Obama's name of it. Mitch pretty much did just that. If you will remember there was a lot of talk about Obama governing by decree. The reason he was forced to do that is because legislation was impossible for the Dems. Turkey Trump figured out that was an excellent way to govern too as he didn't have to answer to anybody either. Another interesting thing, about the ACA, is that the Republicans wrote half of that bill (I think CSPAN still has the markup on that one you can watch although its now been years so maybe not). After writing half the bill not a single Republican voted for it. Anyway, even though the Dems still had congress for the ACA Obama had serious problems with the Dems as well.

Just thought I would mention this.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 07:25 PM
"The Left" is the political underground that fills the streets when streets need filling. That signs petitions when petitions need signing.
That build the barricades and light the fires.

America's last defense against corporate takeover. They rise up when needed. Corporate forces have stamped out the fires and torn down the barricades again, we are in retreat. Don't think you've heard the last of us though. In two short years there is another election and another chance to infiltrate parliament.

Take heart comrade Chunkstyle! We never win, but we never really lose either! MFA is coming. Free college is coming. Even one day, perhaps a living wage. I'll bet we see a minimum wage hike to $10 under Biden's careful and conservative watch. Too little too late. No Malarkey.

The war rages on with neither side gaining much ground.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 07:56 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
The very fact that Obama got the ACA passed at all was a miracle of time and pure luck. Obama lost the entire congress in the election of 2010. Remember, too, when Do Nothing Mitch declared, publicly, that he would stop any and all legislation with Obama's name of it. Mitch pretty much did just that. If you will remember there was a lot of talk about Obama governing by decree. The reason he was forced to do that is because legislation was impossible for the Dems. Turkey Trump figured out that was an excellent way to govern too as he didn't have to answer to anybody either. Another interesting thing, about the ACA, is that the Republicans wrote half of that bill (I think CSPAN still has the markup on that one you can watch although its now been years so maybe not). After writing half the bill not a single Republican voted for it. Anyway, even though the Dems still had congress for the ACA Obama had serious problems with the Dems as well.

Just thought I would mention this.

Obama recapitolized the white collared criminals that caused the financial meltdown while millions got evicted. This also caused a reaction as I recall.

He was also to clean to get his hands dirty in a fight. Still is, preferring to work behind the scenes and use fixers instead of a public brawl like FDR. May have had different outcomes with respect to the ACA fights if he got off his arse and gotten in the ring.

I hear his house in Martha's vineyard is lovely though.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 08:11 PM
History has said otherwise. I don't think, in a highly propagandized, demobilized hard right empire that we've become, that it will happen any time.

The fascists are running to the left of the corporate Dems, now that the lane has been conveniently cleared for them to do so. It's right out of the historical playbook.

Mitt Romney is talking about a UBI for Americans while Pelosi serves up more neoliberal proposals with all the attendant means testing as usual.

Trump will run to the left of the cheap car salesman Biden on social security and medicare. The videos after his lying from last night's debates are trending. Should come back to haunt Biden in the general. And the corporate party is ok with that.

I'm not optimistic for any left wing pheonix. Most people think the democratic party is left for crying out loud.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 08:15 PM
Quote
May have had different outcomes with respect to the ACA fights if he got off his arse and gotten in the ring.

Everything about Obama was disappointing. Turns out there was no hope for change from the start. Seems to be a really nice guy though.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 08:52 PM
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I'm not optimistic for any left wing phoenix. Most people think the democratic party is left for crying out loud.

I don't know if you've been following the news but there are rumours of a stock market crash. Commerce has been practically shut down over the virus fears.

A recession of massive proportions may be underway as I type this. It's entirely possible that the world, as we thought we knew it, no longer exists. President Trump's leadership is going to be severely tested in the months ahead and I believe he's going to come up short.

Something is going to be reborn from these ashes and I think it will be a step towards the Scandinavian model rather than a step away from it.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 09:16 PM
The Wiemar republic had 40% democratic socialist before market forces brought about a right wing response to an economic condition.

We have no left wing parties. The Democrats and media have kneecapped the threat of any alternative but a right wing populist response to the coming economic crises.

We are not immune any more than Germany was in the 30's. I see 'Never Trumpers' moving into the democratic party while it sheds what it had of a left.

There are no leftists political alternative capable of taking advantage of the situation ripe for left wing solutions. I'd really like to be wrong here but I don't think so.



Originally Posted by perotista
As for the ACA, the people weren't ready to be taken out of their comfort zone. Numbers would have told the Democrats that. Sure the Democrats would be for it, the Republicans against it, but what about the 40% or so in-between? The non-affiliated. Most were comfortable with what they had. They didn't want the apple cart upset. Sure there needed something done for the uninsured. But how to approach that?

Amazing to watch you ignore industry spox like Potter.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 10:29 PM
Seems fitting for today's carnage. I highly recommend the 'Stop Making Sense' album while hunkered



Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/16/20 10:44 PM
Interesting conversation going on here. One can tell the ideologues from the pragmatist and the ones who achieve the possible and the ones who try to achieve the impossible when it is impossible and be hog tied for the future. Politics is the art of the possible. I said that before, grab the possible and wait until the impossible is possible.

Now Jeff threw me an interesting question I really hadn't thought about. Do I have an agenda. Ever since Reagan my agenda was to get the national debt lowered, then put on a steady downward path. Since neither major party gives a darn about the ever rising debt, they can't help me. So my agenda is to get people elected that I think will provide good governance. Left or right, center, center right, center left doesn't matter.

Actually, my agenda is more along the lines of a political strategist. How to get folks elected and once elected, reelected. How to win the house and senate and how to keep the house and senate. I want to understand the whys and hows, what took place and how defeats or loss of congress could have been avoided.

Issues and policies I take one at a time and decide whether to support or oppose them my own way by not listening to either party's propaganda. Do I deem it good for the country as a whole or bad for the country as a whole. Notice I said as a whole, not just because it's one or the other party's agenda, not just because one party wants it or the other party doesn't. Is it good for the country as a whole. I actually despise both major parties.

My agenda is good governance, keeping this country secure, safe, prosperous and free. That is my agenda. Which party provides that is irrelevant.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Seems fitting for today's carnage. I highly recommend the 'Stop Making Sense' album while hunkered


Love to know how songs about having some groceries (some peanut butter) enough to last a few days will help people who can't breathe.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 12:11 AM
Quote
The Wiemar republic had 40% democratic socialist before market forces brought about a right wing response to an economic condition.
That economic condition was runaway inflation. It was cheaper to burn wheelbarrows of money than to buy coal.

Hitler re-vitalized the German economy. Unfortunately he was also as mad as a March hare.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 12:39 AM
Quote
My agenda is good governance, keeping this country secure, safe, prosperous and free. That is my agenda. Which party provides that is irrelevant.

Those things should pretty much be the norm. It's a matter of what percentage of Americans get to enjoy that security, safety, prosperity and freedom.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2011 Current Population Report, 46.2 million Americans are considered impoverished – 15 percent of the country's population. Approximately 16.4 million American children – 22 percent of the population younger than 18 – live in poverty.

My agenda is to be sure that every American is secure safe prosperous and free. Not just some of them. Unfortunately there just isn't enough to go around and so some must starve. Part of the human condition y'know...nothing the government can do about it, nor should they be expected to.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 01:31 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Interesting conversation going on here. One can tell the ideologues from the pragmatist and the ones who achieve the possible and the ones who try to achieve the impossible when it is impossible and be hog tied for the future. Politics is the art of the possible. I said that before, grab the possible and wait until the impossible is possible.

You forgot the perfect being the enemy of the good and other vacuous statements.
Your a self described numbers oracle. Was it easy to divine the possibility of Trump ripping the tits off the Republican Party in 2016? I doubt it.

Your spinning narratives out of polls which is fine but hardly pragmatism.

Neither is s Pete Peterson obsession over deficits. Most of the time that ‘pragmatism is in service to cutting public goods and services.

I do see that as the next gambit to cutting social security though. Probably a phased in approach with Boomers being left alone but younger generations getting cut out. We’ll see. It’s been a goal of the owner class since WW2.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 01:36 AM
Your right Jeff. It’s a horrible suggestion and I’m full of shame for suggestion it.
My apologies for anyone who was offended.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 01:56 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Your right Jeff. It’s a horrible suggestion and I’m full of shame for suggestion it.
My apologies for anyone who was offended.

We're a bunch of delicate flowers here...
I think we are wagging the dog here on accepting that ACA "went too far and drove the right-wing backlash". Simply because ACA was almost exactly RomneyCare, just with a smaller mandate fine. I think Democrats made a tactical mistake by not just calling it RomneyCare, but in fact it was Republicans who called it ObamaCare just to demonize it. They never complained about RomneyCare.

They made a huge deal about the mandate: An idea of how to add "personal responsibility" right out of the Heritage Foundation. Nope, the main defect of ACA was that Democrats voted for it, and the "the Black Guy" signed it into law. So it had to be bad. The backlash against it was pure Republican recruitment of xenophobia (Barack HUSSEIN Obama) and racism. But ACA was not important. If it had not been passed, it would have been something else.

Remember back when the US recognized only Taiwan as China? That nonsense persisted for years. Then Nixon went to China, and suddenly China was China. But only Nixon could have done it, because if anybody else had, Nixon would have called them a commie! ACA was the same thing. It's only legal if a Republican does it.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 02:17 AM
Yeah,
I recall stating the Republican Party was more Democratic than the Republican light party and some folks lost their cool.

I keep drawing attention to it and will continue to:

’Election results from the computerized vote counts of the 2020 Michigan Democratic Party presidential primary differed significantly from the results projected by the exit poll conducted by Edison Research and published by CNN at poll’s closing. The large discrepancies greatly exceeded the margin of error for the exit poll projected differences between candidates. In this election candidate Sanders underperformed his exit poll projected proportions by 15.4%. Sanders consequently received 105,000 less votes than projected while others (mainly Biden and Bloomberg) received 111,000 more than projected by the exit poll. Of concern is Michigan’s destruction of the ballot images, that could have been used to greatly facilitate a recount, that were created by their scanners for their counts. This destruction appears to violate both federal and state laws.‘


Nothing to see here...

What was once considered the most reliable of polling and used to predict early election results keeps having swings beyond its historically small margin of error (2%).

Anyone care to guess what the United Nations election monitoring considers rigging with exit polling discrepancies?

Anybody?

Same as they did in 2016 where this same anomoly happened.

Sanders should have been screaming about it this time. Trump was smarter and threatened to burn it down. Republicans backed down.
A fatal flaw of Sanders along with stating he’d support the winner of the primary. He lost all leverage with these people.

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Your right Jeff. It’s a horrible suggestion and I’m full of shame for suggestion it.
My apologies for anyone who was offended.

I wasn't the least bit offended. Hmm
I used to hear that song and wonder how it would feel to hear it if we ever got hit by something almost as monstrous as wartime.
Okay, this might not be as monstrous, but right now the song I hear in my head sounds more like eek2 eek2 eek2

Chunk, just to clear it up, I wasn't shooting at you with my comment, not nearly. I was just musing about the fact that suddenly David Byrne is coming up short. Maybe if Talking Heads had been around in 1918, he might have written an entirely different song...and by that I measn, vastly different from 1914.
Originally Posted by Greger
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Your right Jeff. It’s a horrible suggestion and I’m full of shame for suggestion it.
My apologies for anyone who was offended.

We're a bunch of delicate flowers here...

Not at all. In fact, now that I think about it, one of the most compelling scenes in "The Pianist" was where Spielmann is given a loaf of bread and jam by a retreating Nazi officer.



The thing that confounds us about this virus is the fact that it doesn't use a gun and it doesn't wear a uniform.
It doesn't even choose sides.

If only it was a military enemy...peanut butter and groceries would be worth singing about!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 03:03 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
The Wiemar republic had 40% democratic socialist before market forces brought about a right wing response to an economic condition.
That economic condition was runaway inflation. It was cheaper to burn wheelbarrows of money than to buy coal.

Hitler re-vitalized the German economy. Unfortunately he was also as mad as a March hare.

‘ “Before the rise of Fascism, both Italy and Germany had a robust social safety net and public services. In Italy, the trains were nationalized, and they ran on time while serving rural villages in 1861. The telecom industry was nationalized in 1901. Phone lines and public telephone services were universally available. In 1908, the life insurance industry was nationalized. For the first time, even poor Italians could ensure that their family could be taken care of if they died a premature death…. In 1934, Nazis outlined their plan to revitalize the German economy. It involved reprivatization of significant industries: railways, public works project, construction, steel, and banking. On top of that, Hitler guaranteed profits for the private sector, and so, many American industrialists and bankers gleefully flocked to Germany to invest. The Nazis had a thorough plan for deregulation….”

The Economy of Evil



Seems Mitch McTurtle can see the handwriting on the wall: "MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN" Which translates as "God has numbered the days of your kingdom and brought it to an end; You have been weighed and found wanting; Your kingdom is divided and given to the Medes and Persian"

So he's urging any Republican-appointed Federal judges to resign before fall so they can be replaced while Republicans are still in control.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 01:10 PM
Ohio has cancelled their primary today. But voting will go on in Arizona, Illinois and Florida.

As for the ACA, it's the law of the land today, that's fine. But if one studies all the reasons to include all the polls taken at the time of passage and from the 2010 midterms, one can draw only one conclusion. The majority of people weren't ready for upsetting the apple cart, to be thrust out of their comfort zone. Not ready for a complete overhaul of their healthcare system. They were more than willing to do something for the uninsured, but not to have what they were happy or satisfied with healthcare wise put in jeopardy. You can blame this all on the Republicans, perhaps they had a better propaganda machine than the Democrats propaganda machine. Who knows?

Fact is over 90% of Democrats were for the ACA and 90% of Republicans against the ACA and over 90% of each party membership or base voted for their congressional candidates in 2010. Independents, the non-affiliated and far less partisan, the ones each party must convince that their propaganda is right, were averaging the polls in November 2009 when the senate passed it and in March of 2010 when the house passed it came out to independents being against the ACA 54-39%. They weren't ready for it, you could say the Democrats failed in their job to convince them that the ACA would be for the greater good. The Democrats lost the propaganda war.

In November 2010 independents voted for the Republican congressional candidates by a 56-37 margin resulting in a 63 seat pickup for the GOP. In 2006 independents had voted for the Democratic congressional candidates 57-39 and in 2008, once against voted Democratic 52-45.

I study independents, the more or less non-partisans, the non-affiliated, the swing voters if you will. They'll side with the party in power, in this case the party that hold the house until that party does something to make them angry. Then they rebel big time. 2018, 2010, 2006 and 1994 are prime examples of this. As long as things are going smoothly, as long as their boat isn't rocked too much as to fling them in the water, they will stick to the party in power. Throw them into the water, vengeance is mine saith the independent/swing voter.

When a major piece of legislation or one controversial comes up, the party in power needs to ask themselves is this worth it? We can pass this piece of legislation, but that means we're one and done if it angers independents. Or shall we put this controversial piece of legislation on hold until we get more backing from independents, swing voters and proceed to other items in our agenda less controversial, less disrupting, that won't take Americans out of their comfort zone and change the balance of power. For the Democrats, they chose one and done in 2010 followed by six years of basically nothing. Just fighting to retain the ACA and accomplishing nothing else. Their decision and I respect that. I'd done thing differently, but I'm not a democrat. I'm just one of those swing voters. Do something that makes me angry, I'll darn sure vote against you and all of your candidates I can.

Originally Posted by perotista
As for the ACA, it's the law of the land today, that's fine.

Nope, it's a piece of paper describing a law, and that's about it.
Case in point, my disabled son, who among those in need of adequate health insurance, is now uninsurable once again, just as he was prior to the ACA.
We are hoping he can manage until he gets put on Medicare for SSI, but administration cuts to both will impact him as well.
And it may be up to eighteen months before he ever gets approved for Medicare anyway, so in the meantime the ACA is meaningless for him.

A kid who got three open heart surgeries before age five, has a baseline oximeter O2 average of 78, and the following heart defects, is a valid need for health insurance if ever there was one.

1. Transposition of the Great Arteries
2. Double outlet right ventricle
3. DSV
4. Mitral valve defect
5. Pulmonary stenosis

He is a Fontan patient.

Fontan procedure

Quote
The Fontan procedure is palliative — not curative — but in many cases it can result in normal or near-normal growth, development, exercise tolerance, and good quality of life.[6] However, in 20–30% of cases, patients will eventually require heart transplantation[7] and given the long-term consequences of chronic venous hypertension and insidious organ damage, freedom from morbidity is unlikely in the long term.


Daryl is in that 20-30 percent category.
And yet, this "ACA" you speak of, which is "the law" will no longer help him. That's directly due to successful Republican efforts to destroy the ACA. They WON...the battle is over.

Say what you wish, but I am showing you real world evidence that the ACA does not exist anymore in any practical sense whatsoever.

It's just like the fact that you ignore other facts that I presented to you. LOL, they don't align with the agenda you promote, therefore they don't count, I guess.
You're a good man, Perotista, but you need to come out of that silo and face reality, just a little bit.
The reality is, the Party of Trump is destroying basic and essential American institutions.

It is and always has been their openly stated intention.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 07:47 PM
Jeffery, I never been a political activist and am too darn old to change now. I've always been more of a political strategist, a forecaster if you follow my monthly forecasts on DP. I was born and raised on a farm where we were pretty much self sufficient. Then I made the military a career, 21 years active duty, another 26 working for the army as a civilian.

Now I became interest in politics watching the democratic and Republican conventions on TV back in 1956. I liked IKE although most around me liked Stevenson. Even then I started thinking what IKE would need to do to win. The answer was nothing really, just be IKE cause everybody liked IKE. So even back at the age of 10 I started thinking political strategy. Even in the military, I could tell you who would win and why. I could tell you why so and so lost.

I never delved deep into policies or the issues. I still don't. What I want to see is both major parties working together for the good of the country, not just for the good of their party which has become the case today. If a party or a president wants to move on to bigger and better things tomorrow, sometimes the party or the president has to give up on that policy, issue or agenda today. A president has so much political capital to use before he ceases to be a factor.

JFK realized this with Medicare, civil rights etc. He knew the time wasn't ripe, pushing it and using up all his political capital would doom these things for the near and perhaps even far into the future. In 1964 and 65, LBJ realized the time had come. He jumped. But if JFK has pushed those things, you could be talking 1974 or 75 before they happened, if then. You have to get the American people on your side, that takes times.

Strategy wise the ACA was a mistake, the people weren't ready. It passed, then we got 6 years of nothing. 6 years of using up every bit of political capital Obama had just to keep it. 6 years of fighting tooth and nail by the democrats in congress to keep it. I'd have let it drop in 2009/10 and moved on to other bigger and better things until the time was ripe.

Sure you can say the ACA is a failure due to the Republicans, but if the people were behind the ACA to begin with, the GOP couldn't dismantle it as you put it. Not without huge electoral consequences. That's the difference, my thinking is dealing with strategy. What could Obama have accomplished with a Democratic congress throughout his entire eight years? We'll never know because he and the democrats decided to go against the majority of the peoples wishes in 2009/10 with the ACA. They weren't ready for it and rebelled. Now with Trump and company, what do you have left of that? There's an old saying, there's a time and a place for everything. The time wasn't right for the ACA. Not for the major overhaul anyway. Bits and pieces, you bet. Perhaps one should study history and learn from it.

Perhaps I'm dealing with what could have been, you with what was.

I did like the silo metaphor.
Pero, the problem seems to be that you did not read Wendell Potter's account of how CIGNA and all the other health insurance megacorps SHAPED public opinion.

They SHAPED IT, Potter comes right out and explains exactly how HE and his counterparts at the other companies did it, the how, the why and the wherefore.
Potter explains it all in clear and concise fashion, on his site, his blogs and even in the docu "Deadly Spin".

So, when you SAY things like:

Quote
"Strategy wise the ACA was a mistake, the people weren't ready."

AND

Quote
"Sure you can say the ACA is a failure due to the Republicans, but if the people were behind the ACA to begin with, the GOP couldn't dismantle it as you put it."

it is crystal clear that you've missed the entire point about the role the companies played in SHAPING all of that.
As I've said countless times, when persons and groups spend enormous sums to shape public opinion, they generally expect results, and they get them.

So, to say that "the people weren't ready" is nonsense.
The people, "THE PEOPLE" were led around by the nose like Ferdinand the Bull, and told what they should think, and the media was told in no uncertain terms that their revenue might be in danger if they didn't play along as well, because the media (not JUST the news, the entire media industry) is dependent upon health insurance and pharmaceutical advertising...NEITHER OF WHICH were even LEGAL back in JFK's time...remember?

Doctors, lawyers, liquor, drugs (except OTC like aspirin) and health insurance were for the most part BARRED from direct advertising on television up until the mid-1970's, with liquor being among the LAST to finally be allowed on TV.

Liquor finally snuck in, but it took almost TEN YEARS after cigarette ads were banned. Most people though liquor would never be allowed.
In fact, up until a few years ago, the act of drinking beer, wine or liquor wasn't allowed either.

And now that these industries ARE allowed, television is now dependent upon their ad revenue, heavily so.

Sorry Pero, claims that "the people were not ready" fall flat because "it is an easy matter to drag the people" along wherever you need them.

Just deny them access to the facts, and inundate them with scary stories and fearmongering.
Works every time.

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 08:47 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Just deny them access to the facts, and inundate them with scary stories and fearmongering.
Works every time.
And voila! President Trump... were the people ready for that?
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 10:07 PM
Its interesting. Was hitler on the right or left? Seems to be a big deal. I also note that some are suggesting, now, that the germans were "democratic socialists". Nope, they were members of the "German Nationalist Socialist Party". They were, in every sense, SOCIALISTS! They socialized just about everything from transportation to healthcare. Here is a link:
https://www.snopes.com/news/2017/09/05/were-nazis-socialists/

In case that one is too offensive here is a paragraph:
The Nazis were left-wing socialists. Yes, the National Socialist Workers Party of Germany, otherwise known as the Nazi Party, was indeed socialist and it had a lot in common with the modern left. Hitler preached class warfare, agitating the working class to resist “exploitation” by capitalists , particularly Jewish capitalists, of course. Their programs called for the nationalization of education, health care, transportation, and other major industries. They instituted and vigorously enforced a strict gun control regimen. They encouraged pornography, illegitimacy, and abortion, and they denounced Christians as right-wing fanatics. Yet a popular myth persists that the Nazis themselves were right-wing extremists. This insidious lie biases the entire political landscape today.

In other words nazis were socialists (regardless of what other word you want to add, like, "democratic". If you read much about them you will find that Bernie would have fit right in, at least in the beginning. its also true that most socialism starts without one person, or a small group, taking over EVERYTHING! That is, however, how all socialist operations try and go to in the end.

Its interesting. In Italy Mussolini is still remembered as a "wonderful man" and he only went bad when he joined up with Hitler. His family home still exists as does his family and they are also well thought of by many. When you talk to those who admire they all blame everything on Hitler. Again, its interesting.

Because I cannot resist I will also add that Bernie has lost. It is agreed, by many, that he lost because he made sure the word "Socialist" accompanied his name. Its always been there because that is, exactly what he is. (the 'democratic' part came later but doesn't change the facts). Bernie has remained exactly the same for over 30 years. He has not given an inch. This is also the reason he has so very little legislation with his name on it. He claims to have led this, or that, over the years. Maybe so, if so, his name was never on it because he lost. One would have thought he would have figured it out but, nope, he did not. He was/is absolutely right and that is the one thing he is absolutely sure of. I also find it interesting that he is claiming the support of 'all' the young people. Even that is, and was not, true. He did/does have a young following but as far as the voting goes more of the young supported Biden than Bernie (I was not for either one - they are too damned old)

Anyway - I apologize for upsetting those of you who are for Bernie. In politics there are always two sides and I am on the anti-socialist, anti-Bernie side. Sorry about that. I think the difference is that I really don't want to hurt any of those who support Bernie, I am not sure about how those who support Bernie feel about those like me but, I suspect, its not a good feeling. What makes it all interesting is that I actually support a lot of what Bernie claims he wants. I just don't agree on how he wants it done. I have said it before and will repeat. I think that Bernie wants it his way no matter what anybody else thinks and that, I think, is the real problem.

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 10:49 PM
I think the real problem is that you are lost in the dismal swamp of variable word definitions and can't find your way back to where reasonable people can discuss ideas with an open mind.

What do you think?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/17/20 10:56 PM
Jeffrey, we are arguing apples and oranges. I'm talking about the majority of people being against the ACA, when passed. Thus resulting in the 2010 whipping the democrats took. Any political strategist or even politician, elected official could look at the numbers and come to the conclusion they would be paying a huge political price. Obama and the Democrats decided to go ahead anyway, they accepted the price they would pay which passing the ACA meant losing the House.

Now there may be tons of reasons why the majority of Americans were against it. But the fact is they were. It's also a fact the Democrat choose to go against public opinion at that time.

Perhaps the best course once they viewed the numbers was to say, oops, perhaps we need to postpone this until we can get more information out to the people on the pluses and minuses. We need the peoples support. Why the people thought the ACA was bad and got them all riled up, is irrelevant to me. I'm a numbers guy, not a policy wonk.

If you grab a political history book, look under why the democrats lost 63 seats in 2010, the number one reason is passage of the ACA against the wishes of most Americans. At least a majority of Americans. Now you can fully believe in the ACA and that it is the best thing since sliced bread to happen. That's fine, that's not what I'm talking about. I talking about the number one reason for the 2010 defeat.

Raising federal taxes, especially on social security taxable amount in 1993 was the number one reason the democrats lost the house in 1994. The never ending wars and the beginning of the recession is why the Republicans lost the house in 2006. People were just plain tired of Republican rule. The dislike of Trump with his obnoxious, uncouth ways and very unpresidential behavior led to the Republicans losing the house in 2018.

When swing voters get angry at the party in power for what ever reason, just or not, they vote the other party in. There's more to it than that little short synopsis. Just look at this, how independents, swing voters swing back and forth when they get angry.

1992 Democratic house, independents/swing voters 52-45 Democratic, 1994 independents voted Republican 55-40, the Democrats lost the house for the first time in 40 years.

2004 Republican house, independents voted 53-44 for Republicans, 2006 swing voters voted Democratic 57-39, Democrats regained control of the House

2008 Democratic house, independents voted 52-45 for Democrats, 2010 independents voted 56-39 for Republicans, the GOP regained the House.

2016 Republican house, swing voters voted 51-47 Republican, 2018 independents voted 54-42 Democratic as the democrats regain the house.

You had a 22 point swing between 1992/94, a 27 point swing between 2004/06, a 24 point swing between 2008/10 and a 16 point swing between 2016/18 among one group of voters, independents/swing voters. Dissatisfaction and anger among them at the party who held the house and the president.
Originally Posted by perotista
Jeffrey, we are arguing apples and oranges. I'm talking about the majority of people being against the ACA, when passed.

Funny how difficult it was for Trump and the Republicans to finally tear it down, even in Red states.
See, now that the paid hysteria has died down and Americans finally had a chance to see that it's a good idea, now they want Trump to leave it alone.

You're still ignoring the role that was played by paid special interests and astroturf, and you're calling it the will of the people, when it's clearly not.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 12:38 AM
If Democrats had backed off and taken a second run at it after the midterms we might be living in an entirely different world.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 01:24 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
If Democrats had backed off and taken a second run at it after the midterms we might be living in an entirely different world.

You know, I think the numbers back you up on that. But it didn't work out that way, so we'll never know for sure.

By the way, Biden has been declared the winner in both Florida and Illinois. Polls close in Arizona 2200 eastern. With 82% of the precincts reporting in Florida, its Biden 61-23% over Sanders. Biden has nabs 130 delegates to 48 for sanders so far. In Illinois it's Biden 55-40 over Sanders with 11% counted. Delegates 93 Biden, 46 Sanders.

real close to what the polls were showing for the last week.

One of the biggest reason the democrats rushed the ACA through was when Teddy Kennedy died, their filibuster proof majority in the senate vanished. They had to get it through before Scott Brown was sworn in.

It's my understand the bill wasn't ready, still needed a lot of fixing but that the democrats thought they could fix anything wrong with it after it was passed and signed into law. They never dreamed they would lose the house. But putting it off until after the midterms or even in Obama's second term as president certainly would have caused history to be different. The ACA became a rallying cry for Republicans once it passed and it worked. first by the GOP gaining 63 seats in the house, folks forget the democrats also lost 8 senate seats in 2010. Luckily, they had 59, so they still remained in control with 51 until 2014. They lost 7 governors that year and 12 state legislatures switch parties. I'd say that was a bad year election wise.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 01:56 AM
Biden has upped his delegate lead over Sanders to 1121-839 with around 55 more delegates to be awarded in Florida and Illinois. Arizona to come later tonight.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Nobody is denying that the ACA got a major backlash after it passed. We are talking about why. Personally, I kept the same employer-paid insurance I had before it passed. The only difference was that they had to cover pre-existing conditions. As far as I can tell, that is still true today. Trump has added in short term policies that don't, but most people are not stupid enough to buy those. (So why is the heart patient son no longer covered?)

As for the Democrats backing off and delaying passing it, I recall that congressional Republicans were furiously amending it before it passed. Democrats in congress had every reason to think many of those who had modified large parts of it would vote for it. But they all made the last minute Hasturd-style turn against it. Then Republicans labelled it "Obama-Care" and demonized it, even though they wrote a lot of it, including Romney inspiring it. I think you have fallen for their narrative of events, but I remember exactly when I started seeing all the racist Obama derivatives on the internet.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 04:04 AM
Quote
What I want to see is both major parties working together for the good of the country

That right there. And it's something I'm hearing more and more of.

But neither side wants to go first. The nation is right now on its knees and congress is having to act...

Republicans are concerned that giving help to workers will make them lazy and greedy so the Democrats have compromised.

Then some abortion rider was tacked onto it by the Senate...

Republicans have tried to capitalize on the opportunity this virus presented to further some unpopular goals...

See...?

But then trump wants to send everyone a check...In a mass attempt to buy votes and put the bill on the national debt.

Perhaps, as things continue to deteriorate, they will be forced to actually come together for the good of the nation.

...in the fullness of time...

Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Nobody is denying that the ACA got a major backlash after it passed. We are talking about why. Personally, I kept the same employer-paid insurance I had before it passed. The only difference was that they had to cover pre-existing conditions. As far as I can tell, that is still true today. Trump has added in short term policies that don't, but most people are not stupid enough to buy those. (So why is the heart patient son no longer covered?)

Not at UCLA, which is the "Center of Excellence" type facility that he needs for his particular heart issues. Believe me, there are a great many hospitals that are MUCH closer, but they are not able to do the kind of work he will need in the future, and he loses his cardiologist who was already studying his case long before we even moved back to the LA area. Daryl's heart issues are pretty rare, even among other Fontan patients, because he was among the first to GET the procedure at The Cleveland Clinic, and his particular case carried several heretofore unseen complications.
Dr. Roger Mee, who trained directly under Francis Fontan, for whom the procedure is named, wrote extensively about our son in a medical journal because Daryl's particular case was originally thought to be inoperable. That makes our son almost unique even among Fontan kids.

The chain between Roger Mee, Cynthia Bournemeyer, Claudio Ramaciotti and Leigh Reardon was such that it is doubtful that Daryl would receive the help he needs if he has to seek out another cardiologist.

So sure, we can enroll in PIH, which is a mile and a half from home instead of all the way out in Westwood, but should complications develop, they don't have the kind of training and familiarity with his case that the above doctors have.

So, speaking from a practical sense, this basically leaves him uninsurable unless we want to just shunt him over to some "runt surgeon" who will perhaps have a nodding acquaintance with Fontan issues but who will be unfamiliar with the particular problems Daryl faces.

And here is the mother of all clinkers:
The insurance company that dropped UCLA?

It's "OSCAR".
Guess who used to run Oscar?

Jared Kushner Once Controlled a Firm Now Running a Coronavirus Testing Website

[Linked Image from motherjones.com]

In eighteen months he might be allowed to get Medicare due to his permanent adult disability. Hopefully there won't be any complications between now and then, IF he even GETS his SSI Medicare.
UCLA has already informed us they will accept it.

But for the interim, we're up the creek without a paddle unless he just needs to get checked out for a common cold.

Medi-Cal has yet to get back to us as to whether they can cover his issues, which might include a transplant. We've been going back and forth with them for four months.

Believe me, arguing with insurance has been an almost twice or thrice weekly routine for us for his entire adult life.
At least when he was a child he was covered by either S-CHIP or CHAMPVA. All that ended on his eighteenth birthday.

Yes, CHAMPVA was never made fully ACA compliant.
Know why?
Republicans.

Disabled Vet Health Insurance Loophole Leaves Some Without Coverage


Since Daryl's eighteenth birthday we've spent nearly sixty thousand dollars paying out of pocket for his health insurance, which would have been provided by CHAMPVA if the Republican controlled Congress had ever bothered to close that loophole.

The way I see it, Republicans owe my disabled vet wife 60 grand.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 04:29 AM
Quote
Democrats in congress had every reason to think many of those who had modified large parts of it would vote for it.

So democrats let themselves get flim-flammed into believing they had votes that they didn't. It wasn't a great bill and probably should have been shelved since it had been gutted anyway. Hindsight is 20/20 though. I was against it because it didn't go far enough, but I was glad that it passed. The next step will be MFA and it's coming to a theater near you soon! Maybe not exactly in our lifetimes, but soon.

And even then it will be hobbled by Republican insistence that a small group of rich men should get a cut of the healthcare money without any connection to the actual healthcare taking place.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 10:30 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
What I want to see is both major parties working together for the good of the country

That right there. And it's something I'm hearing more and more of.

But neither side wants to go first. The nation is right now on its knees and congress is having to act...

Republicans are concerned that giving help to workers will make them lazy and greedy so the Democrats have compromised.

Then some abortion rider was tacked onto it by the Senate...

Republicans have tried to capitalize on the opportunity this virus presented to further some unpopular goals...

See...?

But then trump wants to send everyone a check...In a mass attempt to buy votes and put the bill on the national debt.

Perhaps, as things continue to deteriorate, they will be forced to actually come together for the good of the nation.

...in the fullness of time...

Yeah, I think in today's era of polarization, ultra high partisanship, party first politics is one reason both major parties are shrinking, independents, swing voter increasing. In 2006 independents, swing voters made up 30% of the electorate, today if one goes by Gallup, they're at 41%. Most do want the two parties to work together, whenever possible. There are some issues that there can never be compromise on. But I would say 90% of them could be if the willingness was there.

The problem may be two fold. When the two parties worked together, each party had their liberal and conservative wings. The old Rockefeller liberal Republicans of the northeast and the conservative democrats of the south. Both parties shed their unwanted wings since then and are in the process of shedding their more moderate members. Only pure ideologues need now apply for membership in the two parties.

It use to be that each party and their leaders respected each other, they both recognized that both parties wanted a secure, free and prosperous America, only the paths differed somewhat. There wasn't the hate between parties or each party branding the other party this nation's number one enemy. If Reagan and Tip O'Neal could work together, so too could the parties leaders of today. But they don't want to. If you go back pre-2000 you would discover party line voting was very rare. Today it's the normal thing.

Oh well..if the two parties can't come together to tackle this corona virus without political rancor, they never will. Each is too busy blaming the other. Life goes on the best it can.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 10:48 AM
I also have no doubt at sometime in the future MFA will be the law of the land. Many hurdles to be jumped over, but it will happen. Given time and when a majority of Americans are for it, want it. It will pass with pretty much bipartisan support then.

Americans were ready for Medicare and wanted it. Medicare votes in Congress – Over 60% of the American Public was in favor of Medicare before it was introduced to congress in 1965.

House – Democrats 237 AYE 48 NAY – Republicans 70 AYE 68 NAY
Senate – Democrats 57 AYE 7 NAY – Republicans 13 AYE 17 NAY

Compare the ACA to Medicare when it was introduced to congress – Only 35% of the American Public was in favor of the ACA and 58% against.

House – Democrats 220 AYE 36 NAY – Republicans 0 AYE 179 NAY
Senate – Democrats 60 AYE 0 NAY – Republicans 0 AYE 39 NAY

Medicare, pretty much a two party affair, pretty much bipartisan. The ACA, only a one party affair. I was really amazed the Democrats would go against the majority of Americans wishes. But they did, then came November 2010.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 11:52 AM
It sounds like technocratic incrementalism using polls.
Without taking into account the dominant structures of media and political capitalism polls will only reflect the desired outcomes of those structures.

Like wood planers- garbage in, garbage out.
Garbage in would be concentrated, coordinated media narratives, voter suppression suc as the closure of 1500 polling locations since 2016 in predominantly working class precincts, and overt demobilization of voters with the exception of the historically dominant class. Today’s being the white aging boomer population.
In short, your polls are simply a desired outcome of the prevailing power structures.

A universal healthcare system centered around patient restoration has been talked about for 75 years. Without a political framework to undertake that, regardless of its popularity with the public, it will have no mechanism to get it implemented. Both parties have taken it off the table in exchange for corporate political patronage.

Public approval has almost no effect on political outcomes. Politics chief aim is to support its patrons while lowering expectations for the citizenry. The current Democratic front runner’s political career exemplifies that situation.

I’m a big fan of Sheldon Woolin’s ‘Inverted Totalitarianism’ To describe the state being a corporate state or corporate fascism.

Basically, IMO, polls are simply a reflection of the desired outcome of the corporate state as it relates to the two political factions as the only choices.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 12:56 PM
One question, how is one to know how or what the people want or don't want if you don't ask them? Polling serves that purpose. It's true that a poll, any poll will only tell you what the people want or not want, like or dislike at the time the poll was take. Things change and a week or two or a month or a year, thing can be completely different.

Perhaps there are people who don't want to know what folks think. Just push what that one person wants on all others regardless of what all others think or want?

If one delves deep enough into the polls, they can give you not only numbers but provide reasons to include how and why. But one must go beyond the headlines.

Here's an example poll, taken on 10 March which provides tons of information on a huge range of topics. I find it very useful and informative.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vrbl9mmctz/econTabReport.pdf

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 01:15 PM
The latest delegate count which includes Arizona. Arizona, Florida and Illinois still have an additional 50 delegates to award between them which will come once the final count has been confirmed.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

With Ohio and Georgia primaries cancelled and push back into late May and early June, is this the last of the primary elections we'll have? We have Hawaii, Alaska and Wyoming scheduled for 4 Apr, Wisconsin on 7 Apr and then Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New York and Rhode Island on 28 Apr. Will they get pushed back into May and or June? The Democratic Convention is in July.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 03:42 PM
Universal health insurance is now popular in the demicratic party. The party has installed a candidate who is publicly opposed to any measure beyond the ACA plan devised by a republican corporate think tank.

How does polling resolve that contradiction?

I agree with Jeff, propaganda, well applied, will always shift polls even temporarily.

Haven't even touched the 'framing' aspect of polling.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 05:14 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Universal health insurance is now popular in the demicratic party. The party has installed a candidate who is publicly opposed to any measure beyond the ACA plan devised by a republican corporate think tank.

How does polling resolve that contradiction?

I agree with Jeff, propaganda, well applied, will always shift polls even temporarily.

Haven't even touched the 'framing' aspect of polling.

It makes no difference who thought it up or even wrote it up. They didn't try to pass it when most Americans were against it and didn't want it. You can even forget all the public opinion polls and just look at the election results for Nov 2010. That is the true opinion poll. 63 seats lost in the House, 8 Senate seats, 7 governorship's lost, 12 state legislatures lost.

It doesn't bother me if you think the ACA was more popular and wanted by the fans of their hometown team winning the Super Bowl. Without the ACA, the Democrats would have still been in full control of congress, both the house and the senate along with the presidency.

I'm not saying the ACA was good or bad, it actually was irrelevant to me. What I'm saying the reason the Democrats took their drubbing in November of 2010 was because they went ahead and passed the ACA which at that time was against the will of the majority of Americans.

It seems no one on this site understands that and comes in with a ton of excuses of how popular or how good or how wanted or who wrote the darn thing and a million other things.

If the people wanted the ACA, they would reelected all those Democrats in November of 2010 that lost. The ACA was the main reason the Democrats lost the House. This is cause and effect. The cause, the ACA, the effect, the huge losses in November 2010.

I'm not here to defend or condemn the ACA, just stating that passing the ACA against the will of the majority of Americans led to the election debacle of 2010 for the Democrats.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 06:29 PM
Quote
Democrats took their drubbing in November of 2010 was because they went ahead and passed the ACA which at that time was against the will of the majority of Americans.

You can argue all you want but there is no denying the truth of this statement.

Quote
It seems no one on this site understands that and comes in with a ton of excuses of how popular or how good or how wanted or who wrote the darn thing and a million other things.

I understand it. It was Democrats seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Somebody up there should have had the sense to say...Wait a minute, this thing has gone to shite, it's not popular with anybody and it needs to be shelved before the election.

There was a recession going on and the Obama administration was doing nothing to help the folks in the trenches. Congress could talk of nothing but insurance regulations and how to get more money to the rich. Voters completely lost faith in Democrats. The ACA wasn't the only reason for the 2010 midterm losses.

Nothing has changed since then.
Originally Posted by perotista
Americans were ready for Medicare and wanted it. Medicare votes in Congress – Over 60% of the American Public was in favor of Medicare before it was introduced to congress in 1965.

Perotista, my parents received one of these vinyl LP records in the mail back then:



And THAT was the total EXTENT of the paid political hyperbole back then.
In 2009, Obama faced a MULTI-BILLION DOLLAR hype JUGGERNAUT, highlighted in the "Deadly Spin" documentary I linked to, which you have clearly refused to even look at yet.

Imagine a HUNDRED THOUSAND Ronald Reagan clones all sending out mailers, vinyl records, telegrams, going on television, paying for full page ads in all the newspapers every single day for a year, and holding massive town hall meetings for almost two years every single day.

That, using ONLY the technology of that era, is what LBJ would have faced against Medicare back then, and Medicare would have FAILED, not because of the people but because of a massive propaganda juggernaut.

Again, you seem to be pretending that propaganda doesn't produce results. The Party of Trump (formerly the Republican Party back then) learned forty years ago what happens when you don't rise up with a trained organized money campaign to beat back legislation you don't like.

---Americans were ready for Medicare back then because they didn't get drowned out. The strict right wing listened to the Reagan record and voted against Medicare, while everyone else weighed THE FACTS objectively.

Objectivity is IMPOSSIBLE under today's conditions, and that is why healthcare reform is impossible, even the ACA.

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]




Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/18/20 07:17 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Democrats took their drubbing in November of 2010 was because they went ahead and passed the ACA which at that time was against the will of the majority of Americans.

You can argue all you want but there is no denying the truth of this statement.

Quote
It seems no one on this site understands that and comes in with a ton of excuses of how popular or how good or how wanted or who wrote the darn thing and a million other things.

I understand it. It was Democrats seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Somebody up there should have had the sense to say...Wait a minute, this thing has gone to shite, it's not popular with anybody and it needs to be shelved before the election.

There was a recession going on and the Obama administration was doing nothing to help the folks in the trenches. Congress could talk of nothing but insurance regulations and how to get more money to the rich. Voters completely lost faith in Democrats. The ACA wasn't the only reason for the 2010 midterm losses.

Nothing has changed since then.
Thank You. I wasn't talking good or bad about the ACA. Just that passing it led to huge defeats.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 01:10 AM
‘That brings me to the economic response. So far, the House has passed a small response bill, and negotiated a second response package with the White House, including a provision for sick leave that won't cover up to 80 percent of American workers. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi affirmatively defended the loopholes, saying she didn't want to subsidize corporations. Then during a press conference Monday, Trump swung wildly to the left, saying in response to a question on sick leave that, "We want it for everybody."

But bizarrely, during negotiations with White House staff Monday night, Pelosi agreed to weaken the bill even more. The paid leave provision now applies "only to workers caring for a child whose school or day care had been shut," the Wall Street Journal reports. Either Trump did not understand the question he had been asked and was just running his mouth, he has no idea what his staff is doing, or he was brazenly lying — or some combination of all three.

Meanwhile on the question of broader economic stimulus, several Republicans are now outflanking Pelosi to the left. On Monday, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) rejected the Pelosi bill as insufficient, while Senator Mitt Romney (R-Utah) proposed an immediate payment of $1,000 to every adult.“

Democrats' grotesque coronavirus failure

Tom Cotten is running to the left of Pelosi and the liberal establishment while the Party kneecapped the candidate proposing universal healthcare for every American during a growing pandemic. Propelling the neoliberal corporatist Biden to the forefront who dismissed UHC during the last debate, while the country is in lock down, while lying his ass off because why not? The barking seals will vote blue no matter whathavya. DNC chair Tom Perez insists on states holding primary elections during a state of emergency and risking the lives of his dependable older base just to drag a sun downing Biden across the finish line and get him in the meat locker, out of public view and scrutiny like they did Hillary in 2016.

Like so many weaknesses of our society getting exposed by C-19, another is the feckless, means testing death cult energy of the Democratic liberal political class. It can’t burn quick enough.
Actually, if you go back to pre-ACA a large majority of the voters, Democratic and Republican, were in favor of health insurance reform that would cover pre-existing conditions and contain costs. It was only after Democrats in congress actually did it, that Republicans demonized it. Before that, they mostly endorsed it, to the extent that Romney implemented it in Massachusetts. That program was working well, and the only people screaming about it were the same libertarians who wanted to get rid of Social Security and Medicare.

The solution they arrived at had a huge amount of Republican input and a huge amount of Big Insurance and Big Pharma input as well. Some would say it was a Republican plan.

All the Republican opposition was thinly-veiled racism (and often not so thinly-veiled) to serve their partisan interests. They generated almost all of the opposition with there Right Wing Noise Machine, and that has been verified many times by insiders who participated.
Jeff, Daryl is not really uninsurable. In California there is no gap between Medi-Cal coverage (which is free) and ACA coverage in terms of income limits. Both of these offer excellent coverage. The ACA maximum out-of-pocket is something around $7400 per year. Medi-Cal has no cap because it has zero cost.

ACA plans in LA include some top-notch plans like Blue Cross, etc. UCLA is going to accept them because otherwise nobody could go there. One important issue is how much income Daryl earns? If it's less than the Medi-Cal limit then he gets that free. If it's a little too high, he can get ACA almost for free as well. The ACA lower limit can be reached by paying Daryl for all his work around the house to get to the limit. But he would have to pay for ACA coverage for the year. Then he gets that all back in his income tax refund. This can be a huge advantage for not keeping an 18-26 year old kid on your ACA plan, if he has the right income.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Jeff, Daryl is not really uninsurable. In California there is no gap between Medi-Cal coverage (which is free) and ACA coverage in terms of income limits. Both of these offer excellent coverage. The ACA maximum out-of-pocket is something around $7400 per year. Medi-Cal has no cap because it has zero cost.

ACA plans in LA include some top-notch plans like Blue Cross, etc. UCLA is going to accept them because otherwise nobody could go there. One important issue is how much income Daryl earns? If it's less than the Medi-Cal limit then he gets that free. If it's a little too high, he can get ACA almost for free as well. The ACA lower limit can be reached by paying Daryl for all his work around the house to get to the limit. But he would have to pay for ACA coverage for the year. Then he gets that all back in his income tax refund. This can be a huge advantage for not keeping an 18-26 year old kid on your ACA plan, if he has the right income.

I think you need to understand that we've been going through this ever since he got dropped at UCLA by Oscar a few months back.

The point is, he NEEDS to be at UCLA.
Yes, UCLA SAYS they will accept a Medi-Cal plan but the proof of the pudding is in the tasting, and we're stuck in Hell trying to get answers from know-nothing clerical types who cannot get through all the hoops just yet.

So for now, until the logjam finally breaks, he IS in point of fact uninsurable until such time as we get the proper stuff filled out the proper way based on proper advice. We have been at this almost four times a week for months, back and forth.

Daryl's employability is up in the air because he is on SSI, so he has been doing small gigs here and there, careful not to exceed the limit.

So yes, technically the day will come, who knows when, when we will finally get all this sorted out however with a kid whose issues go from "Okayfine" to "HOLY [censored]ing sh!t!!!" in the blink of an eye, it's a scary interim, all of which could be avoided if the stupid insurance companies would stop playing "exploding cigar" with the policy and just leave him there.

This is the FOURTH time an insurance company has dropped him, for the lame excuse that they do not want to be in the market anymore.

Sick of it, sick of it, sick of it.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 12:54 PM
Latest delegate count

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Maryland, Kentucky, Georgia, Louisiana, Ohio have cancelled their primaries and rescheduled them in May or June. Wyoming cancelled in person voting, gathering for their caucus. There may be others.

There is the possibility of more cancellations and perhaps if Corona Virus continues to be the threat it is today of not holding anymore primaries. I haven't seen anything official on that, but heard and read rumors. No one knows what will happen or how the Democratic Party would address this. Just guesses and supposition.

Has anyone else heard anything more on primary cancellations and if that happens how the Democratic Party would choose their nominee? I'm probably jumping the gun here, perhaps big time. But we are in uncharted waters.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 04:55 PM
I'm totally opposed to Joe Biden getting the nomination.

But at the same time I have already conceded. There will be no turnaround for Sanders, it's over.

Any state yet to hold primaries or caucuses should get busy printing ballots to mail out.

My last hope for any progressive movement is that Biden will choose Warren as a running mate. She could get s*** done while he's grinning at camera's and sniffing babies. She has a plan, he has...the confidence of American voters.

I expect him to choose Harris.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 06:10 PM
Mail in ballots would work. Yep, that would be good and I agree, time to get started with them. VP considerations, remember I'm a numbers guy. Warren wouldn't help Biden get to 270, neither would Harris. California and Massachusetts are going Democratic regardless. Although Warren would bring an ideological balance to the ticket. But not a regional one. You would also have two old fogies, 78 and 70 if I remember right. Harris is 55, in my opinion a better fit age wise.

Back to numbers, I'm leaving out men since Biden said he would choose a woman as VP. Klobuchar, Minnesota, regional balance, from Minnesota a state in which Hillary won by a single percentage point. Klobuchar would keep the swing state of Minnesota in the Democratic column. Baldwin, Wisconsin along with the Michigan governor, Whitmer, either one would bring those states Trump squeaked by in 2016 back into the Democratic column.

Although Stacey Abrams, Georgia, has the possibility of delivering Georgia to the Democrats, I like her. She lost the governorship by 55,000 vote in 2018. She lacks experience being the minority leaders in the Georgia state legislature. She's held no statewide or national office.

I'd be asking the question who would help me the most to get to 270. Then again, I'm not a partisan and not really ideological. So perhaps getting to 270 isn't the top priority among those faithful democratic loyalist.

Demings, Florida, congresswoman is another possiblity. But congress members do not the the ability to deliver a state like a senator or governor. Two governors are also possibilities, New Mexico, Grisham and Nevada, Masto, but they're going Democratic anyway. No help in getting to 270

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 07:02 PM
Biden will get a black woman to be vice president. I think that is the deal. Harris, I think, would make a good AG, klobuchar probably wants Agriculture and Warren could get Treasury or whatever is in charge of the stock market. She will also take over, and rebuild her child, the Bureau of Consumer Protection.
I think the Democratic Party should just print up paper ballots and get scanning machines if they need to. I live in a very small district because I'm in an enclave just outside a city limit, so we always have to vote by mail. Very easy to do, and never any waiting (so good for social distance). Primary results don't really need to come out quickly, so scanning a bunch of ballots should not be a problem. Besides, then they have all those paper ballots if they want to do a recount. It's certainly safer, and experts have been urging states to adopt it so they have paper trails that can't be hacked.
Whoever Biden picks, he's going to have to be careful if that woman holds a senate seat. He's going to need all the Democrats he can get in the senate. When senators leave early, the state's governor gets to pick a temporary substitute. But that person may hold office for 6 years, so not necessarily very temporary!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 08:18 PM
I voted early before our primary was cancelled. New machines, it prints out a sheet of paper with sort of a bar code on it, a funny looking ink blot which you hand in and it is scanned. So Georgia this year will have a paper trail if needed.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 08:25 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Whoever Biden picks, he's going to have to be careful if that woman holds a senate seat. He's going to need all the Democrats he can get in the senate. When senators leave early, the state's governor gets to pick a temporary substitute. But that person may hold office for 6 years, so not necessarily very temporary!

For most states the appointment is only good until the next scheduled election. Isakson resigned in January, our governor appoint Loeffler, but she has to run in November. So we have two senate races this year. Like Arizona did in 2018. The normal one and a special election. Whoever wins the special election will have to run again in 2022 as that seat is a class III seat. 2016-2022,

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/19/20 09:24 PM
What would happen if Trump lost and invalidated the election?

Patrick Leahy would become President, there would be no one in the House of Representatives, and 2/3 of the Senate (with a Democratic majority) would still be seated.

I found this on our very own Hal Brown's blog.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/20/20 04:33 PM
This is where it gets interesting. Neoliberals suppressing their own primary election voters, while ignored by their own media but not by their political rivals, may have burned their legitimacy for 'rules and procedures'.

It might turn out to have been a self own.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/20/20 06:13 PM
I think somebody else suggested this one but, just in case. What happens if Bernie AND Biden get Covid-19 and pass. The Dems would then be forced to have a convention to decided who runs. There are some problems with this one. Could they, for instance, have a convention by Skype (or whatever)? Would a convention by Skype be secure? (really?)

Basically, just how would be be done? Could only real card carrying Democrats be the only ones to make the decision? I can see Democratic infighting with so much vigor that NOTHING gets decided and bad feelings are pretty much what's left. On the other hands perhaps there are growed up who can save the day?

How about this one. Trump, a previously lifelong Democrat decides to try for the Democratic nomination as well as the Republican nomination and then runs under both parties?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm??
Originally Posted by jgw
How about this one. Trump, a previously lifelong Democrat decides to try for the Democratic nomination as well as the Republican nomination and then runs under both parties?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm??

That right there reminds me of Lyndon LaRouche trying to run as a Democrat, while simultaneously playing footsie with Reagan's intelligence apparatus.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/20/20 09:39 PM
Quote
How about this one. Trump, a previously lifelong Democrat decides to try for the Democratic nomination as well as the Republican nomination and then runs under both parties?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm??

If, in the next few months, President Trump rescues the economy and puts an end to the Corona virus then Both parties will happily re-elect him in November. Congress might then amend the constitution and make him president for life. Ivanka will be designated his heir and a Golden Throne will replace that desk built from an old boat.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
How about this one. Trump, a previously lifelong Democrat decides to try for the Democratic nomination as well as the Republican nomination and then runs under both parties?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm??

If, in the next few months, President Trump rescues the economy and puts an end to the Corona virus then Both parties will happily re-elect him in November. Congress might then amend the constitution and make him president for life. Ivanka will be designated his heir and a Golden Throne will replace that desk built from an old boat.

No...the ham handed response to this crisis will not roll off his back. And hate to say it but the economy is not going to recover from this in six months. We'll be lucky if we're still above water or ground in four months.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 02:07 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Mail in ballots would work. Yep, that would be good and I agree, time to get started with them. VP considerations, remember I'm a numbers guy. Warren wouldn't help Biden get to 270, neither would Harris. California and Massachusetts are going Democratic regardless. Although Warren would bring an ideological balance to the ticket. But not a regional one. You would also have two old fogies, 78 and 70 if I remember right. Harris is 55, in my opinion a better fit age wise.

Back to numbers, I'm leaving out men since Biden said he would choose a woman as VP. Klobuchar, Minnesota, regional balance, from Minnesota a state in which Hillary won by a single percentage point. Klobuchar would keep the swing state of Minnesota in the Democratic column. Baldwin, Wisconsin along with the Michigan governor, Whitmer, either one would bring those states Trump squeaked by in 2016 back into the Democratic column.

Although Stacey Abrams, Georgia, has the possibility of delivering Georgia to the Democrats, I like her. She lost the governorship by 55,000 vote in 2018. She lacks experience being the minority leaders in the Georgia state legislature. She's held no statewide or national office.

I'd be asking the question who would help me the most to get to 270. Then again, I'm not a partisan and not really ideological. So perhaps getting to 270 isn't the top priority among those faithful democratic loyalist.

Demings, Florida, congresswoman is another possiblity. But congress members do not the the ability to deliver a state like a senator or governor. Two governors are also possibilities, New Mexico, Grisham and Nevada, Masto, but they're going Democratic anyway. No help in getting to 270


This sounds very much like you think Kloubachar is his best bet.

From a non-numbers "tone" perspective, I think you are right - Kloubachar helps bring back a lot of the people put off by nuttery in the primary and any leftward-tics Biden has made to try to capture the Bernie People's grudging willingness to vote Blue.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 02:09 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
No...the ham handed response to this crisis will not roll off his back. And hate to say it but the economy is not going to recover from this in six months. We'll be lucky if we're still above water or ground in four months.

I'm honestly of two minds on that question. So much is going to be driven by the responses of the Governors, and the willingness to reopen economic activity. I could see this being a flash in the pan, or, if politicians get into a more-risk-adverse-than-thou competition... yeah, something more destructive.


Market was back up, what, a year and a half after the 2008 crash, though? As someone in his mid 30s, that's not so bad smile
Originally Posted by CPWILL
I'm honestly of two minds on that question. So much is going to be driven by the responses of the Governors, and the willingness to reopen economic activity.

Too bad Goldman Sachs didn't toss in one of those rosy predictions today. I'd have thought they'd be eager to do so if they agreed.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 01:07 PM
Originally Posted by CPWILL
Originally Posted by perotista
Mail in ballots would work. Yep, that would be good and I agree, time to get started with them. VP considerations, remember I'm a numbers guy. Warren wouldn't help Biden get to 270, neither would Harris. California and Massachusetts are going Democratic regardless. Although Warren would bring an ideological balance to the ticket. But not a regional one. You would also have two old fogies, 78 and 70 if I remember right. Harris is 55, in my opinion a better fit age wise.

Back to numbers, I'm leaving out men since Biden said he would choose a woman as VP. Klobuchar, Minnesota, regional balance, from Minnesota a state in which Hillary won by a single percentage point. Klobuchar would keep the swing state of Minnesota in the Democratic column. Baldwin, Wisconsin along with the Michigan governor, Whitmer, either one would bring those states Trump squeaked by in 2016 back into the Democratic column.

Although Stacey Abrams, Georgia, has the possibility of delivering Georgia to the Democrats, I like her. She lost the governorship by 55,000 vote in 2018. She lacks experience being the minority leaders in the Georgia state legislature. She's held no statewide or national office.

I'd be asking the question who would help me the most to get to 270. Then again, I'm not a partisan and not really ideological. So perhaps getting to 270 isn't the top priority among those faithful democratic loyalist.

Demings, Florida, congresswoman is another possiblity. But congress members do not the the ability to deliver a state like a senator or governor. Two governors are also possibilities, New Mexico, Grisham and Nevada, Masto, but they're going Democratic anyway. No help in getting to 270


This sounds very much like you think Kloubachar is his best bet.

From a non-numbers "tone" perspective, I think you are right - Kloubachar helps bring back a lot of the people put off by nuttery in the primary and any leftward-tics Biden has made to try to capture the Bernie People's grudging willingness to vote Blue.

I was basically throwing out candidates that I think would help Biden get to 270. Of course that leaves out solid blue state candidates as they can't help numbers wise. Actually those three Midwestern women would be ideal. Klobuchar would probably help in Minnesota and in Michigan, perhaps Ohio. Baldwin in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and possibly in Ohio. Whitmer in Michigan, Wisconsin and in Ohio.

The thing is each could deliver their home state plus have some influence on neighboring states. Of course this is a numbers game, not an ideological one. Each would bring regional balance to the ticket also.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 03:37 PM
Tim Canova, running against Debbie Wasserman-Schultz explains the illegal activity that happenned in Fl and has been ongoing in the presidential primary.



I only post this as a rebuttal to someone posting allegations from a Facebook page that Bernie Bro’s would be making these claims.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Tim Canova, running against Debbie Wasserman-Schultz explains the illegal activity that happenned in Fl and has been ongoing in the presidential primary.



I only post this as a rebuttal to someone posting allegations from a Facebook page that Bernie Bro’s would be making these claims.

Interesting that AOC is now being blasted. Circle the wagons!
Interesting that Canova thinks "Democrats should have tried to work with him".(Trump)
But the capper in all of this is the fact that Jimmy Dore's favorite isn't even Bernie at all, it's Tulsi Gabbard, and she just dropped out and endorsed Biden...not that a Gabbard endorsement is something Biden should relish.

Still, this is sounding more and more like a fifth column effort to endorse Trump.

Are these guys COVID-19 "truthers"?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 05:35 PM
Jimmy has a record that is familiar with anyone who’s followed him. He’s rabidly anti state murder, something unfamiliar with most liberals.
The left has had/ does have criticisms of Sanders. I guess when you vote like it’s a brand loyalty exercise there’s no need to be critical but the larger point was made here.

For all the hyperventilating about phoney Russia narratives over the last 3-4 years, there Is real criminality that is observable, has documentation and has been witnessed.





Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 05:49 PM
The Mueller charges against the Russian IT firms were dropped by the way.
Lack of a case by prosecution.

Hilarious that the people entertaining false narratives about Russian election meddling can’t comment on our own domestic vote rigging. Odd....

No mention of who decided to drop those charges? The Trump AG I would imagine. Pretty damned self-serving.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
No mention of who decided to drop those charges? The Trump AG I would imagine. Pretty damned self-serving.

My favorite quip is about how Trump has "out-lefted the Left".
Well, considering that Steve Bannon proudly said that he sees himself as a Leninist bent on deconstructing the administrative state, I'd have to say that it is true.
But the real question is, is that really how far Left we want to go?

After all, the moment one has deconstructed the administrative state to the degree Bannon dreams of, there's nothing left to protect democracy.

Maybe once one gets that far Left, democracy doesn't really matter?
I don't know, because I don't think I've ever BEEN that far Left.

I'm just an ordinary lefty.
I'm not interested in outdoing the Democratic Party, I just want the Democratic Party to make itself viable, that's all, viable for liberal ideas, viable for the working class, viable for a form of capitalism that is accessible to all, viable for the largest number of people.

I see socialism as a stimulant, a spice...like hot sauce.
It can be injected as a way to make capitalism more humane.

I'm not interested in deconstructing the state, I'm interested in making the state serve the people better.

So, has Trump out-Lefted the Left? If you consider the fact that "the Two Santas" are waiting in the wings, no...not even remotely.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 07:20 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
No mention of who decided to drop those charges? The Trump AG I would imagine. Pretty damned self-serving.

You should look into your question. The answer should make you feel like a chump.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 07:22 PM
I thought you self identified as a liberal. Are you conflating that with leftism?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I thought you self identified as a liberal. Are you conflating that with leftism?

Pretty sure that you can learn at least some of my position by re-reading my previous post.

Make of that what you will.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/21/20 09:04 PM
I did. You made some incoherent statements and talked about being average left, whatever that means to you.

You’ve also identified as a liberal in the past. So I wondered if you were conflating liberalism with leftism.

Doesn’t matter really. It was passing curiosity.


Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I did. You made some incoherent statements and talked about being average left, whatever that means to you.

You’ve also identified as a liberal in the past. So I wondered if you were conflating liberalism with leftism.

Doesn’t matter really. It was passing curiosity.

Yeah, if you gathered my meaning from my post then your question is asked and answered, so I don't feel obliged to get into whatever logical fallacy box you want me to get into.

I don't hate capitalism, I just think it needs proper regulation. We have fire safety rules for a reason. Same logic applies.
Socialism is a wonderful stimulant and it helps protect working class folks from predation, so a strong social contract is essential.

I favor universal healthcare and universal access to affordable higher education and training.

I favor strong unions and universal access to them, through apprenticeship programs.

I'm big on restoring domestic manufacturing.

I'm big on social remedies for social ills like racism and gender inequality, and I am pro-choice. I welcome any immigrant who demonstrates the ability to become a productive member of society and support paths to that end, and I think we need to help refugees to the extent we can.

I hate private prisons and want them to disappear.
I hate the fact that war is now a consumer product, and so is news and public affairs.

And having said all that, I hate the fact that we're so far right that even getting to the center looks like a big leap.
And no, I don't have the magic solution to it all.

Now, what box do you think I fit in?
I couldn't care less.
"Doesn’t matter really. It was passing curiosity."
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/22/20 12:57 AM
You don’t have to explain your beliefs to me Jeff. I don’t believe I asked you too.

Just wanted to know if you were conflating liberalism with leftism. Is that unreasonable? I didn’t think so but it wasn’t really that important.

You’ve identified with both of those camps. That seemed to be a contradiction.




Quote
Originally Posted By: pondering_it_all
No mention of who decided to drop those charges? The Trump AG I would imagine. Pretty damned self-serving.

Quote
You should look into your question. The answer should make you feel like a chump.

I have read more about, and it looks like I'm right. Do You know something about the dismissal I don't know?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/22/20 03:37 PM
The Russian Hoax followers are now clearly in the scientology realm of suspended disbelief and it's useless to argue the points. I've honestly never tried in the 3 1/2 years that they've been building their church.

Justice didn't have a case. They backed down when Concord called their bluff and proceeded to challenge them in court. Justice claims they couldn't go thru with it as discovery could compromise whatever they don't have to say could be compromised.

In other words, it was all for show until it wasn't. They brought charges to court thinking the parties involved would never defend themselves. When they did Justice tucked tail and ran off with another 'vast right wing conspiracy' style excuse.

Justice's case was predicated on defendants not defending themselves.

Kafka is laughing somewhere.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/22/20 07:56 PM
I think the Mueller report got wrecked when Mueller made a statement to the effect that ALL those giving testimony were liars and their lies stood assault. Basically, he said that the problem was that the people he was investigating were all liars and their stories held up because of that and there was nothing he could do about it in spite of having the entire power of gov on his side.

Always thought that was VERY strange but, apparently, no really because everybody read it just seemed to shrug their shoulders with a slight "Whatcha gonna do???" and moved on.
Quote
Justice didn't have a case.

I think that quite a stretch. It completely ignores all the US Intelligence agencies' findings. Those were not opinions. Those were real analyses of internet traffic, real evidence of phone call patterns, etc. It's a lot more plausible to think the cases were not prosecuted because they threatened Trump's fantasies about winning the election without Russian help. Especially since the Justice Department has repeatedly sided with Trump's agenda over respect for the law.
I just watched After Truth: Disinformation and the Cost of Fake News and, much as I detest saying this, Chunk's account of Russian meddling sounds almost like he follows the talking points of Jerome Corsi and Jack Prosobiec/Jack Burkman.

Chunk, are you a regular RT viewer?

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 02:04 AM
Are we hashing over the Meuller Report again? I told yall back when that sh*t was going on that nothing was gonna come of it. Nothing came of it.

Then along came impeachment. I tolja from the getgo that nothing would come of it, nothing came of it.

Even less will come of hashing it all over again. But if you find comfort in it during these very strange times then have at it!

We're watching the world we all knew and loved slowly crash and burn.
Remember the trainwreck I promised you? It has arrived....

And once again, I think Trump is gonna come out smelling like a rose.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 02:45 PM
I remember PIA doing the same smears as your now attempting by accusing me of being a Russian agent. I had no idea how much conditioning or how deep it went with the liberals.
I enjoy Chris hedges, if you want to do an unamerican activities style questioning. I’ve been as fan of Chris Hedges who has a show on RT. Former NYT correspondent and award winner. One of the first to call the Russian conspiracy a Hoax, as well as Noam Chomsky, author of Manufacturing Consent or Matt Tiabbi who spent time in Russia and reported on the flimsy evidence and lack of reporting credibility over it. A host of others were reporting on it as well though they weren’t being let into corporate media to push back. They were not suspending their disbelief and treating the Russian circus a consumer brand loyalty exercise.

But Gregor’s right and there’s no value in pointing out to a sucker that they bought a lemon. That was not my intent. Just to point out how voter suppression and rigging is a variable now and depends on wether it damages the coke brand or the Pepsi brand.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 03:12 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
Justice didn't have a case.

I think that quite a stretch. It completely ignores all the US Intelligence agencies' findings. Those were not opinions. Those were real analyses of internet traffic, real evidence of phone call patterns, etc. It's a lot more plausible to think the cases were not prosecuted because they threatened Trump's fantasies about winning the election without Russian help. Especially since the Justice Department has repeatedly sided with Trump's agenda over respect for the law.

The intelligence community that lied us into a war with Iraq?

You would think after the Hitler level amount of death and human suffering we inflicted in that region of the world that we would be skeptical of those blunt instruments and what they tell us. Truly terrifying how fast the roles changed between the NeoLibs and neoconservatives where the security state became members of the Libs #resistance and are now populating all the corporate infotainment media.

It’s been dark amusement watching libs call Fox News ‘Pravda’ or state TV while cnn and msnbc has a constant stream of spooks and generals on their programs. On the other hand, the history of Liberalism is a mixed bag at best and has always broke hard right when push comes to shove as we witnessed in 2016 and now.

Originally Posted by Greger
Are we hashing over the Meuller Report again? I told yall back when that sh*t was going on that nothing was gonna come of it. Nothing came of it.

Then along came impeachment. I tolja from the getgo that nothing would come of it, nothing came of it.

Even less will come of hashing it all over again. But if you find comfort in it during these very strange times then have at it!

We're watching the world we all knew and loved slowly crash and burn.
Remember the trainwreck I promised you? It has arrived....

And once again, I think Trump is gonna come out smelling like a rose.

That's not the point. Do you believe that all of the information was a hoax? Manufactured by the intelligence agencies? Do you think it's all a lie?
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 04:53 PM
Do you remember a time when generals and CIA spooks were not a permament feature of the 'news' media Jeff?
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Do you remember a time when generals and CIA spooks were not a permament feature of the 'news' media Jeff?

I asked if everything they're saying is a lie.
PS: My old man was one of those spooks, Deputy Director of the Defense Nuclear Agency.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 05:22 PM
They lie enough to know not to trust them.

yellow cake comes to mind. agent curveball is another. Gulf of Tonkin, Church commission, Latin American fascist death squads badged as freedom fighters, etc etc. Whatever it takes to maintain empire.

Do you think intelligence agencies have been honest with the public or congress?




Originally Posted by chunkstyle
They lie enough to know not to trust them.

yellow cake comes to mind. agent curveball is another. Gulf of Tonkin, Church commission, Latin American fascist death squads badged as freedom fighters, etc etc. Whatever it takes to maintain empire.

Do you think intelligence agencies have been honest with the public or congress?

Do you think Gish Galloping is helping your argument?
I don't.
And I think that when it comes to career professionals in the intelligence agencies, there is a clear divide between the political operatives and the professionals, and that the professionals take their jobs seriously.
Sorry, I am not letting the perfect be the enemy of good, so I view our intel the way I view our military, and I don't intend to tar the entire apparatus with your broad brush, especially since you have already admitted in the past that you lack any ideas for solutions, nor do you see it as your shared responsibility either.

That makes you an armchair revolutionary of the very worst kind, interested only in tearing down the apparatus but not retooling it.

Police have done some terrible things in the past, extremely terrible, but I'm also not ready to do away with police either.

You sound a LOT like what I see and hear on RT every single day...a LOT.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 05:56 PM
Quote
when it comes to career professionals in the intelligence agencies, there is a clear divide between the political operatives and the professionals,
Sure there is, but we never hear what the career professionals have to say, Just what the political operatives want us to hear. Actual intelligence ALWAYS goes through a political filter before we hear it.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
when it comes to career professionals in the intelligence agencies, there is a clear divide between the political operatives and the professionals,
Sure there is, but we never hear what the career professionals have to say, Just what the political operatives want us to hear. Actual intelligence ALWAYS goes through a political filter before we hear it.

Actually we did get to hear some of the professionals recently.
Sorry, I try to keep track of individuals, and I don't throw them all into one knee-jerk box.
I do actually trust James Mattis, I do actually trust Barry McCaffrey, even if they do not have a perfect record.
I do trust Russell Honore, I do trust Colonel Vindman.

I don't trust John Negroponte, I don't trust Porter Goss, or Gina Haspell. There's more but you get the point.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 06:05 PM
I love how you put words or intent in people’s mouths or arguments.

Distinction without a difference with regard to intelligence communities.

The results are the same.




Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 06:42 PM
Many people were speaking out about the sham on the intelligence in the run up to war, by the way. Many others of your 'honest' intell community did speak out. They were sidelined or ignored.

Biden believed in going to war in Iraq. Hence Biden has blood on his hands. Clinton did too, though liberals were canceling all objection to her as a 'vast right wing conspiracy' (convenient) or being dupes of Russia. Ranters here may recall their behavior here at the time. As though there could not be any ideological differences from her detractors to have a criticism of her career in politics. How lazy and convenient for them.

People have also been speaking out on the Russian hysteria, too. Same play. All critique has been dismissed as though anyone making them are dupes and russian assets or it devolves into some weird party loyalty, support the troops style framing.

The detractors, much like it was in the Iraq war run up, have been ignored while the rubes believe what their TV's tell them.

What's the saying? something about lies having wings while truth has pants or something?




Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 07:36 PM
Intelligence from whatever source when originally collected is what is known as raw intelligence. There’s also a rating scheme applied to the source in many different categories. Once assembled, analyst go through all the data coming up with their own interpretations of it. Which is handed further up the chain of command for further study and analyzing. It is then passed on to whomever is in charge from company commanders up to the JCS, the secretaries, etc. then on to the political leaders depending on what it is about. The need to know always taking precedence along with security clearances.

Most stay in classified channels going to the various agencies and their heads to draw their own conclusions and make a response if warranted. Depending on what it is about, the public will never know. Although there are instances such as the Cuban Missile crisis of 1962 in which the photo’s were publicized and the general public briefed. Some gets leaked for political reasons, not security reasons from the president to congressional officials and staffers which can cause harm to those involved and in the field. Even to the country.


Filtered yes. The general public gets to know very little as to what is going on. What they’re told is usually when something is over and then not very detailed. It’s been this way ever since I first went into the army back in 1966. The old motto, loose lips, sink ships still applies. I think one would be astounded to the amount of material that is still classified from WWII, Korea and Vietnam.

What the government tells you or the general public is very filtered and what you are told is what the government wants you to know for a variety of reasons.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 07:56 PM
So I'm guessing Madam Clinton had nothing to back up her claim that Tulsi Gabbard was a a Russian asset?

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
So I'm guessing Madam Clinton had nothing to back up her claim that Tulsi Gabbard was a a Russian asset?

I dunno but I guess AOC is no longer welcome among your particular group of Lefties.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 08:28 PM
my particular group?

Dunno what your talking about. You'd have to expand a bit. Unless it's more mean girl flexing?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 08:33 PM
Why would you say that Jeff? Have I missed something in the news?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 08:35 PM
And Chunks, what group are you in, I might like to join. Is it a Facebook group?
Originally Posted by Greger
Why would you say that Jeff? Have I missed something in the news?

In the past, AOC has said that, in most countries, her and Biden would be in different parties, and that's definitely a fact, of course.

AOC: 'In any other country, Joe Biden and I would not be in the same party'

She also has said that House Democrats' centrist wing are "the tea party of the left."

Now, with Biden clearly in the lead, she has endorsed him.



Quote
"I think it's a two-way street. I've been concerned by some folks that say if Sanders is the nominee they won't support him and the other way around."

Will she be torched? Is she being torched now?

For the record, I'll repeat what I've said in the past...if suddenly by some miracle Sanders shoots back up into the lead and looks to be the presumptive nominee, I will support him.

I'd RATHER support him, I'd RATHER he be President, I'd RATHER the House and Senate stop being such idiots, I'd RATHER a whole BUNCH of things...but chief among them right now is:

I'd RATHER get rid of Trump by any means necessary, even if it means having to settle for Biden. Flaws may be many but he's not Trump and he's still better than Trump. A glass of water is better than Trump, and not because a glass of water is a good choice, but because Trump's own "glass of water" is infected, and that's not a wise choice under any circumstances.


Now, I understand that both you and Chunk don't share that.
Okay, there isn't a thing I can say or do that will change your minds, and with that I declare we're at an impasse.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 09:10 PM
S'funny thing Jeff. No one is hectoring you who to vote for. It's too bad you don't extend the same courtesy.

You seem to think personal insults and sh!tposing about people will be convincing. Well seasoned with a
'perfect being the enemy of the good', 'lesser of two evils', etc etc that has lead us to the current state of politics we're enjoying today. Unless you have convincing logic to explain how doing the same as has always been done will lead to different outcomes, I don't see any argument your making.

How'd you like that Biden address he gave over the weekend?

That's who the Party establishment knee capped Sanders for. That is not a party who is on my side though, admittedly, it may be on yours.

I don't think Biden will be going to the convention anyhow. I agree with the arguments that there will be a swap out. His only purpose is to stop the Sanders movement with voters and he is clearly not up to the task of running against Trump.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 09:13 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
And Chunks, what group are you in, I might like to join. Is it a Facebook group?

I belong to the flat earth society. Sadly, we've lost one of our apostles recently but the struggle goes on without him.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/23/20 09:17 PM
Speaking of Russian hysteria, a good conversation with Hedges 'On Contact' talking about the parallels with Weimar collapse and our sorry state of affairs.

Careful, Jeff's taking names...

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 03:00 AM
I don't like trying to draw parallels with the past in an attempt to predict the future. Each situation is unique, Rome fell and never rose again. Germany f*cked up about as bad as any country could possibly f*ck up TWICE, but rose above it and is currently getting along fine.

We're in uncharted territory here, the Visigoths are at the gates and the caged lions have been released and are wandering the streets...and what's that you say about a plague...?

I'm at a complete loss at this point and can't makes sense of what could or should happen, let alone make a guess at what's going to happen.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 04:11 AM
Yeah, isn’t there some philosophers somewhere that suggested that as something happened already it was impossible to happen again?
Empires do collapse though and Hedges has been covering some doozies. He’s made some interesting assessments of where he thinks we are along that timeline. Inability of ruling classes to govern effectively, a retreat into their forbidden cities, the populace being offered propaganda in exchange for beneficial policy, etc...
Time will be sorting that one out for us, I guess.

Meanwhile, our once potential CEO in chief:

MIKE BLOOMBERG LAYS OFF STAFFERS AF...IRUS; HEALTH INSURANCE RUNS OUT MARCH 31

Real man of the people. Glad the party bent over to accommodate this guy in the primaries.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 04:25 AM
"Americans abroad are consistently a very blue voting bloc, and the turnout we've seen during the primary, as well as in voter turnout of general elections in 2016 and 2018, reflect that. Our voters believe in affordable healthcare and education, and a government that looks after its people -- both those citizens at home and abroad," said Amanda Mohar, the communications director for Democrats Abroad.“

Bernie Sanders wins Democrats Abroad primary

Mustuv liked what they found in other societies.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 11:26 AM
Like JJ, I will vote for who ever the Democratic candidate is. Whether Biden, or Sanders, or someone else. I just want President Donald (...) Trump* and as many Republicans as possible GONE! My bone pile with Republicans begins with President George W. Bush after 9/11.

Anyway, the way it looks, I am more interested in who will be Biden's or Burnie's running mate. There is a strong chance the VP will become the P with one of those two as President - stress kills. At least, with Biden, we know one thing about the possible running mate, they will be a woman.

There has been a lot of discussion between the wife and I about who Biden's running mate could be. We both think Stacy Abrams would be a great choice. At the minimum, it would mean we do not lose a Senator this election cycle. Leaving a greater chance of controlling the Senate for at least the next two years. Additionally, Stacy Abrams would bring the Black and possibly Hispanic vote. We both feel that Biden needs to pick a running mate who is not currently holding any office. The only person we feel that fills the bill is Stacy Abrams; beside it would give Republicans, the religious right and many conservatives a full on stroke...
*Impeached

: devil hitsfan ouch popcorn2
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 02:13 PM
Fox News appears to be the source for Trump's new pitch, "Don't make the cure worse than the disease". Trump is FN's puppet.

I don't recall Fox News being on the ballot in 2016. Will it be in 2020?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 02:29 PM
Abrams lost the governor’s race by a mere 55,000 votes here in Georgia in 2018. She was minority leaders in our state legislature and has a history working across the aisle to get things accomplished. Her lack of experience, she never held a statewide office perhaps is the only thing against her. Stacey would also give the democrats a good chance of winning Georgia. From purely a numbers aspect, the best candidate to help Biden get to 270, she is the one. Deny Trump Georgia, Trump loses.

I’d also look at those from swing states, again from a number’s perspective. Klobuchar would be a good choice. Hillary won Minnesota by just a single percentage point in 2016, Amy would guarantee Minnesota stays blue along with having influence in Wisconsin which Trump won. Speaking of Wisconsin, Baldwin would be another, numbers wise, a good choice. Trump won Wisconsin, Baldwin should deliver the state to Biden along with having some influence in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Whitmer, Michigan, another excellent pick. She would deliver Michigan, plus have influence in Wisconsin and Ohio. All three from the Midwest brings regional balance to the ticket as would Abrams from the South.

Warren and Harris are from solid Democratic States, neither does anything as to helping Biden get to 270. Although Harris would bring regional balance to the ticket, Warren wouldn’t. Warren is also 70, having two old fogies on the same ticket, I don’t think that is a good idea. I’d say Harris over Warren, the above mentioned four over Harris.

Yes, Baldwin, Klobuchar are senators, Whitmer a governor. Both Minnesota and Wisconsin have democratic governors, each would appoint another democrat should Biden win. Michigan has a Democratic Lt. Governor to replace Whitmer. There would be no loses senate or governorship wise for the Democrats. Although there probably would be special elections in 2022 in both Wisconsin and Minnesota for Baldwin’s or Klobuchar seats as their senate term doesn’t expire until 2024. But the appointed senator would have two years to get known and appreciated along with having an incumbent’s advantage.

This from a purely numbers perspective, choosing the best VP that gives my ticket the best chance of gaining 270 electoral votes.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 04:23 PM
I want Abrams mostly on account of she's the right person for the job.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 05:30 PM
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
I want Abrams mostly on account of she's the right person for the job.

She has a good reputation here in Georgia from all but hard core Republicans who hate her. I'm not sure how her history of being willing to work with Republicans to get legislation passed would set with some Democrats. Although as a senator, Biden did that when he could also.

I do think both Abrams and Biden bring the art of the possible to the table, as in the old saying, politics is the art of achieving the possible. I also think four years of grooming for Abrams as VP would make her the ideal candidate for 2024.

I'll sum her up as saying outside of experience, she is in my opinion an ideal choice.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 06:01 PM
Abrams would probably be his best choice. She will cement the black vote, deliver Georgia to Biden, and probably depose Trump.

I have an enormous amount of respect for black women, a certain amount of fear too. They aint afraid to grab yo little arm and spank yo ass right out the door of the supermarket.

I'd like to see her as VP. I don't know a lot about her but her record speaks for itself. Strategically speaking I can see a path to her winning in 2024. It's not an easy path but there's a possibility.

Not enough to actually get me to vote for him though.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/24/20 06:31 PM
I agree that Abrams could, could being the keyword deliver Georgia to Biden. Biden is fairly well liked down here where as Hillary was deeply disliked. That combo might be a winner here. Abrams lost the governorship in 2018 by a mere 55,000 votes, a bit more than a single percentage point.

Deny Trump Georgia, he loses. From a numbers perspective, Abrams is the best choice. She's an excellent campaigner. It really surprised me that Stacey decided not to run for either of our two senate seats up for election this year. Perhaps she knew something else was waiting in the wings for her.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/25/20 07:21 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I agree that Abrams could, could being the keyword deliver Georgia to Biden. Biden is fairly well liked down here where as Hillary was deeply disliked. That combo might be a winner here. Abrams lost the governorship in 2018 by a mere 55,000 votes, a bit more than a single percentage point.

And only then due to the most blatant voter suppression since Bull Daley kicked the bucket.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 01:19 AM
for a numbers guy, there's something very interesting happening with Trump's approval numbers since this Corona Virus thing has taken hold.

Trump's overall Job performance approval/disapproval numbers caught my eye. For the first time since 14 Mar 2017, over three years ago those who disapprove of Trump Job Performance has dropped below 50%. Currently nationwide, Trump job approval is at 46.5%, Disapprove 49.7%. The 46.5% is the highest overall approval percentage ever or since he took office. How long will this improvement last, I don't know. But I'm certainly going to keep an eye on it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

I would wager it is all due to the public's perception of how he is handling the pandemic. Public Approval of President Trump's Handling of the Coronavirus: Approve 49.4% Disapprove 45.3%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

This I don't think any of you wanted to hear or see. Progressives staying home in November might not be such a good idea or is dividing the Democratic Party.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 04:53 AM
There's a fair chance that this thing blows over pretty quickly and Trump comes out smelling like a rose.

There's a bigger chance that it grinds on for months and Trump's current "surge" in the approval/disapproval polls will dwindle away like his stock market gains.

Trump is blessed with Teela Brown's luck. It's not normal.
Originally Posted by Greger
There's a fair chance that this thing blows over pretty quickly and Trump comes out smelling like a rose.

There's a bigger chance that it grinds on for months and Trump's current "surge" in the approval/disapproval polls will dwindle away like his stock market gains.

Trump is blessed with Teela Brown's luck. It's not normal.

1. Trump: This country wasn't built to be shutdown.
This coming from The Shutdown King himself.

2. Trump: We inherited a broken system, that was also inadequate.
Trump's actions specifically broke the system further, and he had 3.5+ years to do something ABOUT the system that he thinks was inherited as inadequate and broken, he had three and a half years to ADDRESS these problems and he did NOTHING.


3. Trump: No one saw this coming. (echoed by his staff minions)

Trump is resorting to the same weak and lame excuses that Bush tried with regard to 9/11, another Republican debacle of spectacular proportions that we were warned about.
Trump is attempting to have us believe that the warnings about the pandemic were never given, and that it was okay for him to ignore them if he heard them, which HE DID.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 12:05 PM
What is your opinion of the DNC insisting on holding primaries last week?
Threatening states of having delegates stripped if they don’t?
Do you think that was wise having poll workers and voters stuffed together knowing what we know about this pandemic?
Voters waiting in long lines and crowded rooms just to get Biden maximum votes before the public catches on to his mental state?

Or are the Democrats always the good guys in your movie?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 01:23 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
There's a fair chance that this thing blows over pretty quickly and Trump comes out smelling like a rose.

There's a bigger chance that it grinds on for months and Trump's current "surge" in the approval/disapproval polls will dwindle away like his stock market gains.

Trump is blessed with Teela Brown's luck. It's not normal.
That's why I'm watching to see if this isn't but a short term thing, which would be normal. After any major event or happening there usually is a spike or a drop for a few weeks, then the ratings return to normal as prior to any event happening. Whether that will be the case or not, remains to be seen.

I've noticed it isn't the Republicans nor the democrats that have changed their view on Trump's job performance. The increase comes from independents, the non-affiliated and less partisan. But they're finicky and can revert back to where they were in a heartbeat or they could attached themselves permanently. Time will tell.
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
What is your opinion of the DNC insisting on holding primaries last week?
Threatening states of having delegates stripped if they don’t?
Do you think that was wise having poll workers and voters stuffed together knowing what we know about this pandemic?
Voters waiting in long lines and crowded rooms just to get Biden maximum votes before the public catches on to his mental state?

Or are the Democrats always the good guys in your movie?

Changing the course of the opposition party's tribal and cartel style ownership of a corrupt criminal enterprise is happening under an overall cloud of criminality, is my opinion, but how that translates depends on your point of view.

It appears yours centers primarily around gutting the entire system altogether, combined with a certain willingness to accept the consequences, even if that turns out to be four more years of Trump, or possibly a lifetime appointment with rights transferred to the family afterwards...whatever the traffic will bear in "an emergency".

It turns out that it is not difficult to promulgate horrifying emergencies. All it takes is willful criminal incompetence.
Therefore I suspect that a few more terrifying emergencies could very well be in the near future should we fail to vote this present majority out of power.

As I've also said before, your current life situation cannot help but influence your relative view of either gutting it all, or letting the current occupant remain in the White House, or even BOTH...and dealing with the alternative, which is putting Democrats back in power.

And I say that it influences your view because you yourself are on record as saying you're not really in it to construct solutions.

Mel Brooks once said, "Critics can't even make music by rubbing their hind legs together!" LOL

Of course, my situation differs, so I too cannot help but also be influenced by that on my end. I can't afford to continue this nightmare, no way.
If Joe Biden is "the Devil we know", then even that is preferable.
That is my view of the entire thing, that is what influences my entire view.
And that is because I know for sure that if we get another four years of this, my view will not matter anymore, because I will most likely wind up dead before it is over. I seriously doubt three of us over here would survive it. The only survivor would probably be my daughter and God knows what would happen to her.

I don't have a magic wand to control the DNC and neither do you.
But my response will never be to piss on the whole thing, out of spite or otherwise.
The only way I can ever afford to even have that view would BE if I were dead.
But dead people do not HAVE views and opinions.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 06:05 PM
Jeebuz, what’d ya do, get a thesaurus for your birthday?

Did you ever answer the question of the DNC insisting on voters go out and vote during the primary?.....

With all the histrionics over Republicans, I was generally interested in wether you see the same ghoulishness with the Dem party.

I’m going to guess you don’t and will insist on giving one political party a free pass even though there’s hardly any daylight between them and the other on very important issues.

After this primary, it is clear to me and millions of others, that the party does not want progressives, universal healthcare, a raise of the minimum wage, rights of labor to organize, a more democratic approach to capitalism, etc.

Politics is getting more votes than your opponent. If the Democratic Party thinks it can win by refusing to support those issues and they lose. That’s on them.

Sp far as I can tell, instead of any meaningful proposals of any kind being articulated and pushed over the last 4 years, it’s been a nonstop effort of excuse making, smearing, virtue signaling and false choices.

You can’t tell me what the Democratic Party’s hand selected front runner stands for. All you have is a dottering old man in a meat locker with an insistence that he’s less a threat than the POTUS. That’s not politics.

Irony? Maybe. Recipe for 4 more years of current POTUS? Probably.

Like all hacks, there will be more excuses to come for turning in hack work. The RUSSIANS, Comey, Bernie Bros and on and on.

The only thing Dems have made a priority is to resist progressives in their primaries.

So good luck to em.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 06:06 PM
Quote
I don't have a magic wand to control the DNC and neither do you.
Mega-corporations hold the magic wand and control the DNC. The DNC chooses the candidates you vote for. It's your choice whether or not you support them. I have spent a lifetime voting for Democrats and hoping for change, thus far they have failed to deliver more than marginally more optimal outcomes for workers. Conversely when Republicans are in power they deliver marginally worse outcomes.

The media(also controlled by mega-corporations) plays one side against the other to maintain profits and keep wages low.

Focusing on Donald Trump and imagining that he is "the problem" is foolish. Donald Trump is nothing more than a distraction. Replacing him with Biden is another distraction. But you will see four years of marginally better outcomes for workers before media whips up the anger and puts the party of marginally worse outcomes back into power.

Any real leaders who happen to pop up in the system are quickly co-opted by Our Corporate Overlords and become vastly wealthy and powerful within the System of Corporate Control which dominates world politics. Some call them "CEOs".

Our entire Federal Government is a sham. A puppet show. Sheer mummery.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 07:22 PM
I suspect you may be giving waaay too much credit to the corporations. As far as who chooses the candidates I would think that the Media is more responsible for that than anything/body else. I am also not all that convinced that the media is actually all that well controlled either. They chose, for instance, Trump because, as one media CEO said, "he is a hell of a money maker for us!" Hell, the Dems can't even control, or even stop, somebody running under their banner to actually belong to their party! I have, pretty much, voted Democratic for a very long time (with the occasional error in judgment). that being said I have also voted Democratic with little enthusiasm and that is getting less and less over time. Hell, I am no longer even sure they have planks to define what, exactly, they are for or against!

I also have some other hangups. One is that I firmly believe that most folks, that vote Democratic, are for healthcare as a social service. The Democratic party also supports Public Education which conservatives believe to be the devil's work which takes away the individual's right to determine a child's education. Anyway, healthcare as a social service just can't be done in one fell swoop. The Dems actually stand a chance to take it all in November but that would depend on the Democrats to actually make some kind of effort. So far I am not even convinced they actually want to win in November! They are constantly dunning for money but, for the life of me, I can't figure out where its going. Is surely isn't going for any ads that I have seen. The way most candidates are working very hard for money it would seem they are not getting all that much from the Dems either. Perhaps the Democratic management is getting paid REALLY well? Anyway, I, for one, would really like to see the Democratic party start making decisions and going after Trump with a will rather than the standard Democratic whine and wimper.

Ah, I may have figured it out. The Dems are waiting for the convention to determine who will be their candidate. There is only one little problem, this year, with that - COVID-19!!! They must have some sort of plan but, again for the life of me, I can't figure that one out either. Oh, if the Dems are actually controlled by 'whatever' then 'whatever' is doing a p*ss poor job in the running of the Democratic party!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 07:45 PM
Quote
As far as who chooses the candidates I would think that the Media is more responsible for that than anything/body else.

And the media is controlled by the corporations...who also control the DNC and the RNC. Look around and you will find that practically nothing is controlled by "The People".

Quote
The Dems are waiting for the convention to determine who will be their candidate.
No, the candidate has been chosen and it's Joe Biden. Sanders is using this time to help with the Covid-19 response from the bully pulpit provided him by his candidacy. Biden is taking a victory lap and struggling for air time.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 07:48 PM
If you weren’t paying attention to the 2016 reconciliation committee meetings you may have missed a BIG point of contention of the parties handling and disclosure of the fundraising.

It’s a very good question of how money is raised and how it gets distributed.. I’ve been posting on it for 3 1/2 years but mostly to empty response.

No ad campaign is a guaranty of success but it does help. Taking your opinion that it doesn’t, hasn’t that been a feature for the excuse of losing on 2016? A Russian influence campaign?

Believing in healthcare or believing in education or a living wage is nice and virtuous.
What it ain’t is is agreeing about the fundamental way in achieving that. Electing politicians that are not for it and are backed by corporate lobbying efforts in the form of a boughten Senator makes absolutely no sense.

If lobbying is shaping our legislative agendas and bills who’s paying for the lobbyists?
I’m going to go with corporations over the Girl Scouts. At least in cash on hand.
Who has been centered for financial relief in the last two weeks? Which portion of the economies interest has come first? I’m going to go with debt interests.

Finally, ‘Trumps a mad king that must be removed!’ No, he’s a grifter NYC developer that learned how at his fathers feet.
Dems are likely to swap out Biden for another guy who’s father and Trumps’ go back.

If Mad King Trump were true then why does congress allocate money for his agenda in matters of war department and deep state? Why do they approve of the surveillance act?


What I find most distressing about the Democratic Party (and I mean EVERYONE, not the DNC) is that this cycle we got nothing but flawed candidates. There are plenty of popular Democratic Governors, Senators, Representatives, public figures, etc. who could have run. But instead we got some women, a gay Mayor, some very old guys, a socialist, a billionaire party-flipper, etc. A regular sitcom cast! Yang was the closest to a viable candidate except for no political experience and being Chinese-American.

Are Democratic primary voters so politically correct now they won't consider a White Male Democrat with real political experience? One who could actually go on TV and win over a majority of Democratic Primary voters and still win the general election?

My wife and I are both mixed race ourselves, and I think there are a lot of very competent women in politics, so I don't say this out of racism or sexism. But a whole lot of Americans are racist, or sexist, or both. Men AND women. Democrats tend to be less racist and sexist, but still you have to win the election if you want to change anything. I guess we get "points" for being pure, but we do lose. I would rather win.

BTW, I would not count on Biden, Sanders, Trump, Pence, McConnell, and Pelosi still all being alive by November. We could end up with George Clooney or Andrew Cuomo on the second ballot.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 08:33 PM
I’d put money on Cuomo. He governs like a Democrat.
Two weeks ago he was pushing to cut state’s medicaid.
He gave the go ahead for the ‘IDC’ to form effectively kneecapping any progressive bills from passing. The IDC caucused with republicans but maintained their Democratic Party status.
He understands the partisan gridlock game and how to utilized it. Trading a shoulder shrug ‘whatyagunnado?’ for a public brawl over policies.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 09:54 PM
You'll have to speak for yourself. I very much like one of the two candidates still running (poll numbers rolling avg. still climbing but won't get the altitude before running out of runway. Bamz 'night of the long knives did enough damage at the right time. Should get him invited vack to Branson island. Maybe an infinity pool in his house on Martha's Vineyard.

Sanders just won Utah by the way.

The other guy is having some real cognitive issues. They'll announce a replacement. Maybe over health reasons? 'Thanks for voting. Were going in a different direction' sort of thing.
I did vote for Sanders in the California primary, but I still consider him deeply flawed in terms of getting independents to vote for him. The reason I bring up Cuomo now is that he seems to be the voice of reason for many people on the internet, as opposed to Trump's ravings.

One of the best things we could do right now is stop listening to the ravings of a mad man. He's leading his followers right over a cliff.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I did vote for Sanders in the California primary, but I still consider him deeply flawed in terms of getting independents to vote for him. The reason I bring up Cuomo now is that he seems to be the voice of reason for many people on the internet, as opposed to Trump's ravings.

One of the best things we could do right now is stop listening to the ravings of a mad man. He's leading his followers right over a cliff.

Apparently I've flunked a great many purity tests despite also voting for the man. I can't do much more than vote for him.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/26/20 11:49 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
What I find most distressing about the Democratic Party (and I mean EVERYONE, not the DNC) is that this cycle we got nothing but flawed candidates. There are plenty of popular Democratic Governors, Senators, Representatives, public figures, etc. who could have run. But instead we got some women, a gay Mayor, some very old guys, a socialist, a billionaire party-flipper, etc. A regular sitcom cast! Yang was the closest to a viable candidate except for no political experience and being Chinese-American.

Are Democratic primary voters so politically correct now they won't consider a White Male Democrat with real political experience? One who could actually go on TV and win over a majority of Democratic Primary voters and still win the general election?

My wife and I are both mixed race ourselves, and I think there are a lot of very competent women in politics, so I don't say this out of racism or sexism. But a whole lot of Americans are racist, or sexist, or both. Men AND women. Democrats tend to be less racist and sexist, but still you have to win the election if you want to change anything. I guess we get "points" for being pure, but we do lose. I would rather win.

BTW, I would not count on Biden, Sanders, Trump, Pence, McConnell, and Pelosi still all being alive by November. We could end up with George Clooney or Andrew Cuomo on the second ballot.

My first choice was John Hickenlooper, the Governor of Colorado. But he dropped out pretty quickly. He will be going to Washington in January as Senator Hickenlooper as he will Defeat Gardner fairly easy.

If you follow numbers, I think you'd find the progressive wing makes up between 30-35% of the Democratic Party. The rest are much more moderate which this primary season has shown.

And yes, first you must be able to win an election in order to get anything at all accomplished. In order to win one must not only be able to attract Democrats, but independents and some Republicans. Nominating an ideological pure candidate from the progressive wing has many obstacles to overcome that someone, say from the center left doesn't. The Republicans tried the ideological pure candidate back in 1964 with Goldwater, we all know the results from that.

As for a woman, I have no doubt a woman can win the presidency. But it depends on who that woman is. Hillary came across as aloof, an elitist and I'll add my own word as I viewed her, fake. She was also lazy and ran a very inept campaign and still won the popular vote.

She also lost the independent vote. It doesn't matter whether your candidate is a man or a woman, whoever it is must be able to attract the independent voter. With both major parties shrinking, independents rising, choosing a candidate attractive to independents is of utmost importance. In 2006 independents made up 30% of the electorate, today they make up 40% give or take a point or two. That is if one believes Gallup and Pew Research.

Of course I'm not very ideological, so I'm more interested in finding a candidate that can win than one who is ideological pure. Little steps forward are fine with me, as long as we keep moving forward. Nominating someone who promises gigantic leaps forward, usually can't win and loses in Goldwater fashion. Then even little steps forward cease.

I've been saying for a couple of years now that this election cycle that the Democrats needed a fresh young face, if from flyover country so much the better. Now we ended up with two 78 year old white men which it seems no one is happy with except their avid supporters.

That's my two cents anyway.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/20 12:21 AM
Quote
Now we ended up with two 78 year old white men which it seems no one is happy with except their avid supporters.


Does Biden have an avid supporter?

Biden has dropped the names of several possible running mates and hasn't mentioned Abrams. Nevada Senator Cortez Masto was just mentioned and she comes with Harry Reid's recommendation...that's good enough for me! LOL LOL LOL LOL
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/20 01:19 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Now we ended up with two 78 year old white men which it seems no one is happy with except their avid supporters.


Does Biden have an avid supporter?

Biden has dropped the names of several possible running mates and hasn't mentioned Abrams. Nevada Senator Cortez Masto was just mentioned and she comes with Harry Reid's recommendation...that's good enough for me! LOL LOL LOL LOL

LOL, well, avid supporters? I would say so in the black community. Of course all I'm going by is polls since December which showed Biden the first choice among blacks at an average of 55%. I suppose that can be interpreted differently by different folks.

Numbers wise, getting to 270, Masto doesn't help there. Nevada is going Democratic whoever is VP. Although Masto does bring regional balance and an Hispanic aboard the ticket. She could help in states with a large Hispanic population. Texas and Arizona comes to mind. How much, I'd have to do more research.

Numbers wise, the best bet is the trio of Midwestern Women, Klobuchar, Baldwin and Whitmer. All three could deliver their state. Abrams, I still think lack of experience, not having held any statewide office or any mayorship. Although I still think she'd give Biden a 50-50 shot at Georgia where as the other three Midwestern woman would guarantee their state goes Democratic. At least in my mind.

Biden's only real strength is he's seen as the most electable. The one with the best chance of defeating Trump. Perhaps one could say Biden's less avid, enthusiastic voters have swamped the very avid, highly enthusiastic Sanders voters.
If Biden wins and then dies or resigns immediately, the VP is very likely going to be much more of a driving force. Even if he doesn't, VP's can be given a lot of duties while the President just signs the bills his advisers tell him to sign. Just look at Cheney or George HW Bush. I do not see even a lame Biden doing the actively destructive things Trump has done.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/20 05:53 PM
Just gunna mention nobody’s brought up recent sexual harassment allegations against Joe Biden.

I hope to see the righteous indignation from the Warren camp. Hate to think all the misogyny bernie bro talk was simply politically weaponized gender politics...

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/20 06:24 PM
I would suggest your study on opensecrets.org There you will find where all the politicians get their money. To simply say its corporations would be wrong. Those giving/taking/running are a diverse group of whatevers. Individuals and corporations and NGO's, etc.

My own thought is that the problem is not so much the bribery and corruption but the politician him/her self. Some are stalwart and determined to do the job and others consider the job to get as much as fast as they can and then move on to 'senior' status of the perceived wise.

Lobbying is how our leaders formalized bribery and corruption, as far as I am concerned. I have always found that pretty interesting. If an elected, however, decides to go outside of this system they do get crucified big time by their colleagues. That doesn't happen often, but it does happen. I have also found how the elected deal with the treasure is also interesting. I think it usually ends up in some kind of non-profit trust run by family and supports said family for years.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/20 07:21 PM
Your argument avoids the gross amounts of lobby money that is being spent by corporations. Not to mention political PAC contributions.

If your saying that formal bribery is a feature of corporations and the onus is on representatives, I would argue that boughten politicians are a feature of capitalism and the onus is on citizens.

Without any real political mechanism to change that government capture from Mr Market, I don’t see any alternative left but full on kleptocracy.

Whoops!... wait a minute...
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I do not see even a lame Biden doing the actively destructive things Trump has done.

I do not see even a lame Biden telling the Governor of Michigan she's not getting lifesaving medical gear because she did not kiss his ass, or telling the Governor of New York he's lying about needing 30000 ventilators.

Oh but the PURITY TESTS are so much more importantz!!!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/27/20 10:49 PM
I saw Biden scoff at universal healthcare during a pandemic in his last debate. Does that count as purity.

What is a purity test you keep going on about anyways Jeff?

Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I saw Biden scoff at universal healthcare during a pandemic in his last debate. Does that count as purity.

What is a purity test you keep going on about anyways Jeff?

Your definition of "scoff" is not accurate.
And when it comes to any kind of scoffing, no one beats the current party in power right now...in the middle of a pandemic.
Trump is attacking Michigan's Governor and telling vendors not to send equipment or supplies to Michigan. I wonder where GM is going to manufacture those ventilators he asked for?

Trump Attacks Michigan

Now he's actually trying to kill certain people. He's making it personal. Somebody's going to send some RPGs through the White House front windows.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 12:26 PM
Trump has always taken any one who said or even had a bad thought about him personally. Such is the thin skinned, egotistic, uncouth president he is. He views anyone with a D behind his name as the enemy as they have set out to destroy him since the day after the election. Especially since impeachment.



Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 12:27 PM
Trump's overall approval numbers keep improving.

For the first time since 14 Mar 2017, over three years ago those who disapprove of Trump Job Performance has dropped below 50%. Currently nationwide, Trump job approval is at 47.0%, Disapprove 49.3%. The 47.3% is the highest overall approval percentage ever or since he took office. How long will this improvement last, I don't know? But I'm certainly going to keep an eye on it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

I would wager it is all due to the public's perception of how he is handling the pandemic. Public Approval of President Trump's Handling of the Coronavirus: Approve 50.6% Disapprove 44.9%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...virus-7088.html

Disapprove 44.9% It isn’t that the views of Republicans and Democrats have changed on Trump. Independents have finally seen Trump act more presidential since the Corona Virus has set in than acting like the uncouth, raunchy wrestler from the WWE as he has done since he first entered the race for the presidency.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 12:56 PM
Trump joins AOC in the Socialist party to battle the virus! As I predicted, he is moving far to the left in a move to politically isolate the Bidenvirus-2020.

Trump takes over GM

Quote
US President Donald Trump has ordered General Motors to make ventilators for coronavirus patients after attacking the car giant's chief executive.

He invoked the Korean War-era Defense Production Act, which allows a president to force companies to make products for national defence.

But on Friday he said in a statement: "The virus is too urgent to allow the give-and-take of the contracting process to continue to run its normal course."

Earlier in the day he took to Twitter to complain that GM had lowered the number of ventilators they had promised to deliver from 40,000 to 6,000 and had wanted "top dollar".

He also criticised GM chief executive Mary Barra, saying things were "always a mess" with her at the helm of the Detroit-based auto manufacture.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 12:57 PM
Death To Capitalism!!!!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 01:04 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
I saw Biden scoff at universal healthcare during a pandemic in his last debate. Does that count as purity.

What is a purity test you keep going on about anyways Jeff?

Your definition of "scoff" is not accurate.
And when it comes to any kind of scoffing, no one beats the current party in power right now...in the middle of a pandemic.

Derided? Dismissed? What would you say the appropriate word would be for Biden’s ‘Italians have it, it hasn’t helped them with the virus’ debate statements?

One wonders what life would be like for Italians had they not had their healthcare system.
I guess we’ll be finding out though.

Hopefully we’ll be getting the verbs right.


Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Trump is attacking Michigan's Governor and telling vendors not to send equipment or supplies to Michigan. I wonder where GM is going to manufacture those ventilators he asked for?

Trump Attacks Michigan

Now he's actually trying to kill certain people. He's making it personal. Somebody's going to send some RPGs through the White House front windows.

That would create martyrs. Many on the Right are itching for a scenario featuring an Apex Martyr, as a trigger for widespread violence and an overthrow. Not saying they are automatically guaranteed success, however in our current vulnerable state, the damage would be equal to the schism that gave us Shi'ia versus Sunni.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 02:55 PM
Trump ran to the left of Clinton in 2016, as I recall. This is an easy layup so why would he not do it again?
He’s on record stating that it would have been much harder to win if Sanders was his opponent. Just as it would be now.

Unified party opposition to a leftist democratic candidate speaks volumes about the current Democratic Party positioning. It’s enfeebled candidate is symbolic of the party itself.
Originally Posted by perotista
Trump's overall approval numbers keep improving.

For the first time since 14 Mar 2017, over three years ago those who disapprove of Trump Job Performance has dropped below 50%. Currently nationwide, Trump job approval is at 47.0%, Disapprove 49.3%. The 47.3% is the highest overall approval percentage ever or since he took office. How long will this improvement last, I don't know? But I'm certainly going to keep an eye on it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The bump in approval ratings is short lived.
Even Jimmy Carter enjoyed an increase in approval at the outset of the Iran Hostage Crisis...and then...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 03:47 PM


The hypocritical silence from the liberal political and media class is deafening.

It seemed like only yesterday when the media was all aghast at the allegation that Sanders said something to Warren that was considered sexist.

Still, Trump will be having no problems bringing up Tara’s allegation should Biden be left in the ring by his handlers.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 04:00 PM
Very true Jeffrey. Same for Bush after 9-11 when he shot up to 90%, then began a very steady decline. 6 months later Bush was down to 70% and a year later down to 55%.

The decline was even more noticeable among democrats, 84% right after 9-11 down to 49% 6 months later, falling to 37% a year after 9-11. It took independents 3 years to drop below 50%.

I don't think it will last either. Now I follow independents as usually they decide elections. The fact independents have risen from 42% approval to 49% is significant at this time. Their disapproval has dropped from 52% down to 45%. Nothing there that is eye popping, but worth noting. Trump won the independent vote in 2016 with only a 40% favorable rating among them. Of course Hillary's was at 27%. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

Biden is much more liked among independents than Hillary was. So I don't expect a repeat. If the election was held today, Biden would win easily. He leads Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and is tied with him in Wisconsin. All states Trump won in 2016.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 05:48 PM
Quote
It’s enfeebled candidate is symbolic of the party itself.
Old, out of touch, past its prime, but with a questionable resume, and no marketable skills.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 07:47 PM
I suspect that Biden will have a very real shot at universal healthcare. He has already said that he wants to re-institute Obamacare and then add the option for medicare. Now, if he can work out the finances of this one he will be very close. I am basing this on Bernie's claim that the current Covid-19 thing is proving the inadequacies of our current system as that rock has been turned over for everybody to see. Biden has to be careful, take it slow but steady and he might actually pull it off.

It will be interesting. There are, for instance, those who literally hate Biden and will fight anything he wants to do because of that hate. Hopefully they will back off and give a chance. There is, however, that weird habit Democrats have of going after one another instead of the opposition. Hopefully they will back off a little but I tend to doubt it. Right now they are busily going after one another instead of Trump which kinda blends my mind. Examples of that one were on full display during the previous, so-called, debates (also recognized as 'food fights' of the children/candidates)
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 08:10 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
I suspect that Biden will have a very real shot at universal healthcare.
Trump is going to run on universal healthcare after this virus thing... mark my words.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/28/20 10:12 PM
I don't hate Biden, I think he's just a terrible choice for anything except Geritol commercials and maybe lobbying for the AARP.

More than likely, democrats will take control of everything for the next couple of years, hopefully they will make some incremental gains in healthcare before Republicans return to power in 2024.
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by jgw
I suspect that Biden will have a very real shot at universal healthcare.
Trump is going to run on universal healthcare after this virus thing... mark my words.

What, the kind where he cuts it off if you're not nice to him?
I think most people are getting sick and tired of that in short order.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/29/20 12:22 AM
He doesn't care. He'll do whatever it takes to close the deal. He's already sparking to what a $2 trillion giveaway of our money debt will buy him. He has no political ideology, just pure unethical salesmanship, and too many Americans are rubes.

He's a master con man. We need Bernie to neutralize him, not Biden.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/29/20 12:49 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by jgw
I suspect that Biden will have a very real shot at universal healthcare.
Trump is going to run on universal healthcare after this virus thing... mark my words.

What, the kind where he cuts it off if you're not nice to him?
I think most people are getting sick and tired of that in short order.

No, the kind that he promises but never delivers.
Easter will be the key: If hundreds of millions of people pack the pews on Easter, then millions will die about two weeks later. That would be near the peak, where about 40% would be infected. That means everybody who gathers has an excellent chance of getting infected. 3 days later, 80% are infected.

Trump might just get some blame for that.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/29/20 10:34 PM
TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ENTHUSIASTIC THAN BIDEN BACKERS, NEW POLL SHOWS

Of course they are. Their candidate is able to tell time and more than a match for a sundowning legacy candidate.

The Democrats only interest has been to stop Sanders. I’m still expecting them to swap out Biden for someone coherent as Corona virus has given them an opportunity. ‘Wasn’t that primary fun? Now shut up and vote blue no matter who’.

If it does happen It’s doubtful enthusiasm would pick up on the left.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/29/20 10:37 PM
Now that massive job losses are occurring, wasn’t it nice to see the Democrats throw their weight behind a candidate that wants to maintain an employer provided health care system instead of a candidate that wants it as a human right?

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/30/20 02:13 PM
That was the case in 2016, Hillary's supporters were more ho hum, Trump's supporters were willing to go to the four corners of the earth for him. I think that huge enthusiasm gap had a lot to do with the way Hillary ran her campaign. She was plain lazy. From 1 Sep 2016 through 8 Nov 2016 Trump made 116 campaign appearances, stops, visits, rallies to Hillary's 71. Her 71 looks larger than what it was as it included fund raisers in deep blue California and New York.

In short, Hillary basically ceded the campaign trail to Trump. In the deciding states, Wisconsin it was Trump 5 visits, stops to Hillary's none. Michigan, six for Trump, one for Hillary. Pennsylvania was closer, 8 for Trump, 5 for Hillary. even in electoral rich Florida, Hillary ceded that state to Trump also, Trump 13 stops, visits, rallies to Hillary's 8.

It seemed to me once the general election campaign began, Hillary lost that fire in the belly needed to win. Her laziness along with a very inept campaign strategy gave the election to Trump. My opinion anyway.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/30/20 02:43 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
No, the kind that he promises but never delivers.
ThumbsUp

They don't call him King Kon fer nothin'.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/31/20 01:18 PM
14 States Have Postponed Their Primaries Because of Coronavirus. This includes Alaska, Hawaii and Wyoming which were scheduled for 4 Apr.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/2020-campaign-primary-calendar-coronavirus.html

Wisconsin is still scheduled for 7 Apr. "Wisconsin is holding firm to the April 7 date for its primary, but the governor wants to send every voter an absentee ballot."
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/31/20 05:08 PM
Hillary did, exactly, what the Democratic geniuses told her to do because they are so smart. Her own husband told her she was making a terrible mistake but she, obviously, knew better.

Now the same geniuses are, as far as I can tell, figuring out, and working very hard, to lose the next election too. Its just freaking amazing!

they used to just not fight back now their clever system involves, as far as I can tell, complete silence.

FREAKING AMAZING!!!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 03/31/20 05:38 PM
Hillary's problem was her only goal was to achieve more electoral votes than Obama if one wants to call that a campaign strategy. She wasted time, energy and money trying to win Georgia, Arizona and Utah to achieve that goal ignoring her own backyard, the so called blue wall states.

And yes, she ignored Bill's advice totally. Top that with being lazy and ceding the campaign trail to Trump, she lost. Hillary made 71 campaign appearances, visits, rallies to Trump's 116 from 1 Sep through 8 Nov 2016. In Wisconsin, it was Trump 5 visits, stops to Hillary's none. Michigan, Trump six, Hillary one. Pennsylvania was closer, 8 for Trump, 5 for Hillary. She even ceded electoral vote rich Florida to Trump, 13 visits, stops, rallies for Trump, 8 for Hillary.

I'm sure Biden won't make those same mistakes. Especially ceding the campaign trail. If he does, then like Hillary, he deserves to lose.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/01/20 01:47 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
And yes, she ignored Bill's advice totally. Top that with being lazy and ceding the campaign trail to Trump, she lost. Hillary made 71 campaign appearances, visits, rallies to Trump's 116 from 1 Sep through 8 Nov 2016. In Wisconsin, it was Trump 5 visits, stops to Hillary's none. Michigan, Trump six, Hillary one. Pennsylvania was closer, 8 for Trump, 5 for Hillary. She even ceded electoral vote rich Florida to Trump, 13 visits, stops, rallies for Trump, 8 for Hillary.

I'm sure Biden won't make those same mistakes. Especially ceding the campaign trail. If he does, then like Hillary, he deserves to lose.

I think you are correct that Biden is a more natural fit for many of the swing-Trump voters (though I wonder the extent to which they will be naturally motivated to confirm their 2016 choice), and is a greater danger to those 78,000 votes that flipped three states...

...but I'm not sure how much Biden's advisors are going to want him on the campaign trail. Just as he won the primary by being the only plausible Consensus Not-Bernie, I would suggest his strongest position in the General is being the Consensus-Not-Trump. He's best running as Generic Democrat on the ballot, not a flesh-and-blood grandpa that people can see calling them a lying dog faced pony soldier on a daily or weekly basis.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/01/20 06:12 PM
I thought we were talking about hillary against trump......
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/01/20 06:20 PM
Who really knows? Covid-19 kinda chills the entire process. Hell, Biden might get covid-19! THEN what happens? They are already talking about a virtual convention and that too might be entertaining.

Things are, if nothing else, waay different than they have been in the past. Now, for instance, there are no rallies and no meetings. Seems all politicking seems destined for TV and, so far, there doesn't seem to be much of that. Then there are the primaries being set further out. If they keep that one up I also have no idea what the results are going to be.

So, who knows?
There is no reason the remaining primaries can't all be done by mail. I've been mail voting for years, and it's a lot easier than going to the polls. I'll have to mail vote in November, too. We live just outside an incorporated city limits, and because of various different district boundaries we need our own ballot. Not enough of us to have a polling place.
I see Georgia Republicans and Trump have come right out and opposed mail ballots because it will help Democrats. No more BS about "fairness" or "voter fraud".

Mail Voting Devastating to Republicans

Quote
“The things they had in there were crazy,” Trump said in a Fox News interview last week. “They had things — levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”


So it's unfair if Republicans lose the election because we don't let them cheat?
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
“The things they had in there were crazy,” Trump said in a Fox News interview last week. “They had things — levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”


So it's unfair if Republicans lose the election because we don't let them cheat?

Tough beans.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/03/20 07:22 PM
In this day and age it is ridiculous to demand that people leave their jobs on a Tuesday, drive god knows how many miles(34 in my case) to show up in person by the f*cking hundred millions to spend five minutes filling out a form.

Because that's the only way Republicans can win.

Automatic voter registration should be a thing, with ballots automatically mailed to everyone of voting age and returnable sample ballots sent to teens not yet old enough to vote for polling and educational purposes.

Voter registration SHOULD NOT BE PARTISAN.

Ballots should include polling on issues of the day, which would give government some idea how the folks they are governing actually feel.

I'd put the Postal Service in charge of it all, handling that kind of sh*t is what they do. Each post office has a counting machine and a live website reporting the numbers as they arrive over a two week period.
I'd make it an annual affair with Maximum Hoopla.
Election Day would be a national holiday where we see the last of the votes counted and the winners announced.

If I was the King Of The World, I'd straighten this sh*t out forthwith.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/03/20 08:36 PM
You are flat out right! The problem is that the Republicans will fight like hell. This one is a real gift to them. They have always wanted to stop people for voting and, this time, they just might get it.

I can, however, hope I am dead wrong about that!
I think even Republicans are going to see that leaving their shelters to vote with all the infected is a bad idea. They are going to be calling for mail ballots as well. I'm somewhat amazed at least the Democratic primaries are not all run by mail. Each Party in each state controls their primary election.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/04/20 05:30 PM
Your faith in the intelligence of the Republicans are somewhat encouraging but I doubt it. I am basing this on the southern states unwilling to start trying to even contain Covid-19 let alone actually admit its not a Democratic hoax. There are a number of Democrats who want to continue with the caucuses! Then there are those who are committed to the "old ways", in both parties. I think there are groups, in both parties, that are not exactly fans of change in ANYTHING!

I know, mean spirited, sorry...............
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/04/20 07:06 PM
I was surprised when I got the mail today to see Georgia has sent out request for absentee ballot to vote by mail requests to all registered voters. This one is for the 19 May primaries only.

So we will, at least here in Georgia have vote by mail for the primaries scheduled for 19 May. Upon further reading there was another box I check for Eligibility to receive vote by mail for the rest of the election cycle without another application. wonders be.
I see the Wisconsin legislature, in all it's collective Republican wisdom, has refused to let the governor delay their primary. He's been after them change to mail ballots for months, but now they are criticizing him for waiting until the last minute. They also claim sending out mail ballots to all registered voters would be an impossible task, although several other states have done exactly that.

Wisconsin Fiasco

The funny thing is that the state can't even find poll workers. Everybody is ordered to stay home and not gather. The five locations for polls in the Milwaukee expect 10,000 people each. Republicans have effectively made voting illegal in Wisconsin! I think people may need to start the tar boiling and get the chicken feathers ready.

The only saving grace is that the courts extended the deadline for receiving absentee ballots a bit.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/11/20 01:21 PM
From your numbers guy, a comparison of 2016 vs 2020. Biden has a slight lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and surprisingly trails Trump by just 2 points in Texas. They are also tied in Florida, all states Trump won in 2016. The only state that Clinton won that Trump leads in is New Hampshire. A whole 3 electoral votes.

There is a huge difference between the early polls of 2016 and those of today. The first major polls of head to head action between Trump and Clinton in 2016 were taken in June, we had 7 of them to average out between 1-7 June 2016 between Trump and Hillary. Their average was a 5-point lead for Hillary 42-37 with 13% stating they would vote third party and 8% undecided.

Today, 11 Apr 2020, Biden leads Trump 49-43 with 4% stating they'll vote third party and 4% undecided. The huge difference is back in 2016 there was a pool of voters 21% of the remaining electorate where Trump could improve himself, Clinton could too among those who hadn't decided between the two. Today, that pool is down to 8%, not 21%. To really improve, Trump must take some votes away from Biden this year along with winning most of the undecided and convincing some third-party voters to vote for him. In 2016, Trump didn't need to take any voters away from Clinton, he had that huge pool of 21% of the electorate to play with, not just 8%.

In the end Trump managed to take 9 of that 21%, Clinton gained 6 and the rest stuck with third party candidates, 6%. In short, Biden is in a much stronger position this year, today than Hillary Clinton was in June 2016. Trump must convince some of those who have decided to vote for Biden this year to instead vote for him. This is something Trump didn’t need to do in 2016. He didn’t need to convince a single voter who had decided to vote for Clinton to change their minds and vote for him. He had that large pool of 21% of the electorate to play with. Not so this year.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/13/20 12:18 PM
Final results of the Alaska Democratic Primary held on 10 Apr, Biden 55.3%, Sanders 44.7%. Biden 11 Delegates, Sanders 4. Still no results from Wisconsin which held theirs on 7 Apr.

Wyoming is next on 17 Apr. I haven't heard anything about Wyoming cancelling their caucus or not. I have also read it will be probably another week before Wisconsin's results are in. Not that it makes any difference now that Sanders has withdrawn.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/13/20 04:30 PM
Nothing has made much difference since Super Tuesday.

Biden is the anointed one and may god have mercy on our souls.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/13/20 05:59 PM
It's probably a good idea for god to always have mercy on our souls. It's here our politics diverge, with Biden as the nominee, I'll vote for him. If it was Sanders, I would have voted third party again like I did in 2016. If I don't like either major party candidate, I don't vote for evil even if the evil is the lesser of the two or the least worst candidate or the candidate I want least to lose between the two major parties. I always vote against evil as I see it.

There too we probably disagree. Sanders isn't the nominee, so I'm very comfortable with Biden. I wouldn't have been with Sanders. I like to stay within my comfort zone if it is at all possible.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/13/20 11:03 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
It's probably a good idea for god to always have mercy on our souls. It's here our politics diverge, with Biden as the nominee, I'll vote for him. If it was Sanders, I would have voted third party again like I did in 2016. If I don't like either major party candidate, I don't vote for evil even if the evil is the lesser of the two or the least worst candidate or the candidate I want least to lose between the two major parties. I always vote against evil as I see it.

There too we probably disagree. Sanders isn't the nominee, so I'm very comfortable with Biden. I wouldn't have been with Sanders. I like to stay within my comfort zone if it is at all possible.

I was always going to vote democrat no matter who won.

I mean, aside from Gabbard and Williams.

Bernie, Biden, Harris, Warren, doesn't matter.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/13/20 11:29 PM
2016, my vote was against both Trump and Hillary. As for 2020, I knew I wasn't going to vote for Trump. But that didn't mean an automatic vote for the Democrats. I said many, many times that depended on who they nominated. I started out backing John Hickenlooper, when he dropped out, I went with Tom Steyer. I really wasn't given time for choose another as the day after Steyer dropped out, it became a two man race. Biden is fine with me, he'll have my support.

Now, I thought about Gabbard after Steyer. I like her along with Klobuchar and Buttigieg. All would have had my support. The only two that wouldn't have were Sanders and Warren. Those two would have caused me to vote third party once again.

Ideological wise, I'm definitely a middle of the roader. Probably half way between the two major parties. I always thought of Sanders and Warren as being outside of the democratic party, left of it.

I support the Democrats on some issues and the GOP on others. It all depends on the issue and how much I care about it. Many are irrelevant to me that seem to get both sides riled up. I'm probably your ultimate swing voter. I'm the type that would vote third party for president, republican for senator and democratic for my congressman and split the rest of the ballot going back and forth depending on my view of the candidates for various offices.

My first vote was back in 1968 when you had to be 21 to vote. I can't remember a year when I ever voted a straight party line ticket. I probably did a time or two, most likely in a midterm.

This year, I know Biden for president, David Scott, my Democratic congressman for the House are sure things. I'll vote for whoever are the two Republicans for Georgia's two senate seats up this year. I love divided government. I like the check on the party in power or the party that has the white house. It's very dangerous in my opinion to have a single party in full control of the presidency, senate and the house. Not so much in the past due to the 60 vote cloture rule, the filibuster. But with the nuclear option doing away with the filibuster, it is a must to have the opposing party in control of either the house or the senate be it a Republican or a democrat as president.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/13/20 11:47 PM
Wisconsin, Democratic Primary, 62% of the precincts reporting Biden 363,000, 64% 20 delegates, Sanders 176,000, 31%, 0 delegates so far.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 12:24 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
2016, my vote was against both Trump and Hillary. As for 2020, I knew I wasn't going to vote for Trump. But that didn't mean an automatic vote for the Democrats. I said many, many times that depended on who they nominated. I started out backing John Hickenlooper, when he dropped out, I went with Tom Steyer. I really wasn't given time for choose another as the day after Steyer dropped out, it became a two man race. Biden is fine with me, he'll have my support.

Now, I thought about Gabbard after Steyer. I like her along with Klobuchar and Buttigieg. All would have had my support. The only two that wouldn't have were Sanders and Warren. Those two would have caused me to vote third party once again.

Ideological wise, I'm definitely a middle of the roader. Probably half way between the two major parties. I always thought of Sanders and Warren as being outside of the democratic party, left of it.

I support the Democrats on some issues and the GOP on others. It all depends on the issue and how much I care about it. Many are irrelevant to me that seem to get both sides riled up. I'm probably your ultimate swing voter. I'm the type that would vote third party for president, republican for senator and democratic for my congressman and split the rest of the ballot going back and forth depending on my view of the candidates for various offices.

My first vote was back in 1968 when you had to be 21 to vote. I can't remember a year when I ever voted a straight party line ticket. I probably did a time or two, most likely in a midterm.

This year, I know Biden for president, David Scott, my Democratic congressman for the House are sure things. I'll vote for whoever are the two Republicans for Georgia's two senate seats up this year. I love divided government. I like the check on the party in power or the party that has the white house. It's very dangerous in my opinion to have a single party in full control of the presidency, senate and the house. Not so much in the past due to the 60 vote cloture rule, the filibuster. But with the nuclear option doing away with the filibuster, it is a must to have the opposing party in control of either the house or the senate be it a Republican or a democrat as president.

1. Gabbard is a MAGA swine.

2. Hickenlooper was okay. He never had a chance, but I liked him.

3. Twenty years ago, I would have agreed that having all three branches in one party's hands was dangerous. Only now, the GOP is more dangerous in ANY capacity.

If we stipulate that the country has 20 years left, in 20 years the parties will be the DNC and the progressive wing. And I am guessing that in 30 years, the DNC will be in fact what the progressives say it is today: The next GOP.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 01:17 AM
Parties adjust. I remember after the Goldwater debacle in 1964, everyone was saying the Republican Party was dead. It would be at least 20 years, if not more before they became competitive in elections. I think the pundits and those saying that remembered Hoover and FDR being elected for four terms with Truman making it five in a row in 1948.

That was a bad election, LBJ won 61-39, The democrats had a 295-140 advantage in the house and a 68-32 advantage in the senate. But come 1968, Nixon won the presidency, The GOP had picked up 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.

Then came Watergate, Carter elected president in 1976, he was given 292-143 advantage in the House and a 62-38 advantage in the senate. Again, everyone was saying it would be 20-30 years before the GOP won an election.

Then came 1980, Reagan won, 49 house seats switched and the Republicans won the senate. Now everyone was talking about the Republican lock on the presidency. Several books were written about that. But in comes Bill Clinton in 1992. So I heard all of this before and seen the results.

I think you're missing something here. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate were independents with the Democrats having a 37-33 advantage over the Republicans. Today, 40% of the electorate have become independents as the two parties have shrunk. Gallup as of 22 Mar 2020, list both those who affiliate or identify with Republicans and Democratic Parties at 30% each.

As the two parties move further and further left and right, more moderates are leaving both parties. The Democratic Party averaged between 45-50% of the electorate from the end of WWII until Reagan, then 35% until Obama and now are at 30%. The GOP average around 25% of the electorate since Eisenhower through today. The high for the Democratic Party was 51% in both 1961 and 1964, Their low is 30% as of 22 Mar 2020. The GOP had their high of 38% in 1942, their low of 21% in 1975, but have slowly climbed back to 30% as of 22 Mar 2020.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 02:37 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Parties adjust. I remember after the Goldwater debacle in 1964, everyone was saying the Republican Party was dead. It would be at least 20 years, if not more before they became competitive in elections. I think the pundits and those saying that remembered Hoover and FDR being elected for four terms with Truman making it five in a row in 1948.

That was a bad election, LBJ won 61-39, The democrats had a 295-140 advantage in the house and a 68-32 advantage in the senate. But come 1968, Nixon won the presidency, The GOP had picked up 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.

Then came Watergate, Carter elected president in 1976, he was given 292-143 advantage in the House and a 62-38 advantage in the senate. Again, everyone was saying it would be 20-30 years before the GOP won an election.

Then came 1980, Reagan won, 49 house seats switched and the Republicans won the senate. Now everyone was talking about the Republican lock on the presidency. Several books were written about that. But in comes Bill Clinton in 1992. So I heard all of this before and seen the results.

I think you're missing something here. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate were independents with the Democrats having a 37-33 advantage over the Republicans. Today, 40% of the electorate have become independents as the two parties have shrunk. Gallup as of 22 Mar 2020, list both those who affiliate or identify with Republicans and Democratic Parties at 30% each.

As the two parties move further and further left and right, more moderates are leaving both parties. The Democratic Party averaged between 45-50% of the electorate from the end of WWII until Reagan, then 35% until Obama and now are at 30%. The GOP average around 25% of the electorate since Eisenhower through today. The high for the Democratic Party was 51% in both 1961 and 1964, Their low is 30% as of 22 Mar 2020. The GOP had their high of 38% in 1942, their low of 21% in 1975, but have slowly climbed back to 30% as of 22 Mar 2020.

I also think that past performance does not guarantee future results. This current poison isn't business as usual.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 03:18 AM
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
Originally Posted by perotista
Parties adjust. I remember after the Goldwater debacle in 1964, everyone was saying the Republican Party was dead. It would be at least 20 years, if not more before they became competitive in elections. I think the pundits and those saying that remembered Hoover and FDR being elected for four terms with Truman making it five in a row in 1948.

That was a bad election, LBJ won 61-39, The democrats had a 295-140 advantage in the house and a 68-32 advantage in the senate. But come 1968, Nixon won the presidency, The GOP had picked up 40 house seats and 10 senate seats.

Then came Watergate, Carter elected president in 1976, he was given 292-143 advantage in the House and a 62-38 advantage in the senate. Again, everyone was saying it would be 20-30 years before the GOP won an election.

Then came 1980, Reagan won, 49 house seats switched and the Republicans won the senate. Now everyone was talking about the Republican lock on the presidency. Several books were written about that. But in comes Bill Clinton in 1992. So I heard all of this before and seen the results.

I think you're missing something here. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate were independents with the Democrats having a 37-33 advantage over the Republicans. Today, 40% of the electorate have become independents as the two parties have shrunk. Gallup as of 22 Mar 2020, list both those who affiliate or identify with Republicans and Democratic Parties at 30% each.

As the two parties move further and further left and right, more moderates are leaving both parties. The Democratic Party averaged between 45-50% of the electorate from the end of WWII until Reagan, then 35% until Obama and now are at 30%. The GOP average around 25% of the electorate since Eisenhower through today. The high for the Democratic Party was 51% in both 1961 and 1964, Their low is 30% as of 22 Mar 2020. The GOP had their high of 38% in 1942, their low of 21% in 1975, but have slowly climbed back to 30% as of 22 Mar 2020.

I also think that past performance does not guarantee future results. This current poison isn't business as usual.

That's possible. Could the Corona Virus start another 20 years for the democrats like the Great Depression did? It's certainly is possible. But I doubt it. Now if you're referring to Trump, how long did the Goldwater stink last? 4 years and it was back to normal.

How long did the repercussion of Watergate last. 4 years and then the Reagan era. How long did the Republican lock on the presidency last, 4 years without Reagan. If Biden wins this year and the senate joins the house in being Democratic controlled. I'd lay you odds the democrats over reach big time making those 40% who are swing voters angry. That leads to a Republican take over of the House and perhaps the presidency in 2024. Trump will be ancient history just like Goldwater was in 1968, just like Watergate was in 1980. Americans have mighty short memories unless what caused the huge shift lasts.

The Great Depression was with us from 1929 until the beginnings of WWII. A remember of Hoover's and the GOP ineptness. This lead to 20 years of a Democratic President. FDR offered hope and that was what Americans wanted. A positive president. Then Pearl Harbor, no changing the leader, most everyone trusted FDR. If the Corona Virus hangs around, Trump bungles it like Hoover did. Another 20 years of Democratic domination is possible if that virus lasts.

What I think will happen, the Corona Virus will be history by November, the voters throw Trump out, give the senate to the Democrats, give the Democrats a bigger majority in the House. They Biden and the Democrats in sole control of government over reach making independents angry and bang, the GOP retakes the House in 2022 and perhaps the presidency again in 2024. Trump is ancient history and might as well, his presidency taken place in 1916 than 2016.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 03:24 AM
I would argue that what is happening to the GOP is a continuous progression that began with Nixon's Southern strategy. It is not a cycle, but an incremental iteration in nationalist, racist garbage.

Nixon, Reagan, GW Bush, Trump. Each one worse than the predecessor, with Bush 41 being the only outlier.

And, as an aside, there is no logical reason to believe that Covid19 will be a memory by November. This thing is with us until we have a vaccine, and we have not seen the worst of it yet. It's just begun in rural areas where there isn't much medical infrastructure. Georgia is a good early example.

And yeah, it's going to shape an entire generation, same as the depression did, same as world war 2 did, same as 911 did.
Quote
there is no logical reason to believe that Covid19 will be a memory by November.

Agreed: We flatten the curve so the bad cases do not overwhelm our medical resources. This makes the fatality rate much lower. But it also makes the curve a lot longer, because there are all those people in tight quarantine who avoided it in the first wave. When they do finally come out, many of them will catch it. The communicability is so high, R0 depends on our isolation. The pool for infection consists only of people who are out and about. When more people join that pool, R0 will shoot up.

The only good thing about that is when Trump's fans follow his proclamation and go out to party, a bunch get sick and hopefully realize his gut is leading them right off a cliff.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 01:25 PM
We'll see. Does the Corona Virus mean another 20 years of uninterrupted democratic Party in the future? I highly doubt it. From 1933-1952 you basically had that with the democrats in control of the house, senate and the presidency. You probably would have had another 20 if IKE hadn't run as a republican. But then perhaps not as Truman at the end of 1952 was the most unpopular president in our history. Only Nixon comes close to Trump's very low 22% approval in Nov of 1952. Could be if Taft had won the nomination, he would have won just like IKE. Abet by a smaller margin.

Of course that all happened back in a completely different political era. There really wasn't much difference between the parties with both major parties having their conservative and liberal wings. Being a conservative back then meant that you believed in everything the Democrats did, but only a little less.

You also had years when the Democrats controlled the house with margins like 333-89 and the senate 75-17. There wasn't the hatred between parties even during the depression. This was also an era when 45-50% of the electorate identified themselves a Democrats vs. roughly 30% Republican. That 15-20 point gap between parties is completely gone today. Today both parties are fairly even in affiliation with the non-affiliated towering over both parties.

I do think it is very possible for the democrats to swamp the GOP in November. I also think it possible the GOP recovers in 2022 regaining the house. That the Democrats will do something to make the non-affiliates angry ALA 2010 and lose the midterm. That buffer of 15-20 points isn't there today.

Every event that has happened where deemed game changers by the pundits. But given a couple of weeks to a month after the event or happening, usually things reverted to where they were prior to that event or happening even taking place. Usually, but not always as the Great Depression showed. I highly doubt the Corona Virus will have the effect on folks the Great Depression had.

When a party has total control of government, the other party becomes irrelevant in the voters minds. Non-existent more or less. They either condone or get angry at the party in total control either by that party doing what America as a whole wants and retains the power or going against what America as a whole wishes and they lose. In our current modern era, the party in full control always over reaches and makes those non-affiliated, less to non-partisan voters angry. In an era when those non-affiliated and less to non-partisan voters who owe no party loyalty get angry, that is always bad news to the party in power.

You'll see.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 07:27 PM
Given the finances of the nation the Dems have a pretty good chance. However, its said that "Democrats have a talent for screwing it up" and its, pretty much, true. I do, however, have hope. The Republicans are working, very hard, to give the Dems what they need. My only question is whether they will use it or not. The fact that the Republican senate has been supporting Jackass Trump the Insane has to give them some ammunition. The only real threat to the Dems are the far left Dems calling for a revolution which seriously turns off the middle of the American voting public (which is, I think, tired of Trump, Socialists, 20 year wars, etc) I don't think anybody wants to return to somebody's vision of the good old days either.

If the Dems do take it all I sincerely hope that they 1)fix what Trump has wrought, 2)seriously fix and expand Obamacare, including restoring it and offering a public option, 3)Stop the endless wars!

In my theory, again, conservatives are against ALL regulation, Liberals, on the other hand, demand regulation. The problem, in this regard, is that both sides, especially now, tend to go to extremes and I would suggest the Dems don't. I also suggest that the Dems, EVERY DAY, mention why they won, who did it, and what they did which the Dems are forced to fix for the good of the nation and the reason for their election in the first place. The Republicans are very good at this and the Dems have, in the past, been silent about such.

Obama got 2 terms (which is usual for the Democrats) and then came the Republicans promising the world and the wall and got themselves elected because "they were something different". I suspect we now know what that means it it may not be so easy for them the next time?

Oh, there is also the little problem of the judicial system which the Republicans have done a job on. They have, for instance, assigned 20 year old new attorneys to life long appointments which the bar would never have allowed, and didn't (but it made no difference to the Republicans). The simple fact is that its going to take the Dems a long time to just rebuild the government which Trump worked very hard to wreck and destroy and that doesn't even begin to deal with the financial disaster they will inherit on top of that. We are, for instance, have to deal with the bill Trump was running up even before covid-19! Now its gonna be a LOT more!

On the good side the Dems have a long and distinguished history of fixing the disasters created by the Republicans who never miss a chance to prove they are right by being completely wrong.
Originally Posted by jgw
The only real threat to the Dems are the far left Dems calling for a revolution which seriously turns off the middle of the American voting public

Main reason, at least from where I sit, is because said so-called "revolution" is utterly bereft of plans.
Revolutions without plans...aren't.
All they are is a gaping power vacuum, and a vacuum like that is where the most evil imaginable marches in.
In fact, history is full of instances where such evil marched in from the outside.

Sorry, not going to get enthused about watching USA turn into one gigantic bunghole sitting wide open, waiting for a prison sexual encounter from something not unlike The Bundy Clan with some additional funding from the Kochs.





Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 10:59 PM
I really don't know what yall are worrying about. Biden is going to win in November.

This election is yours to lose.

Bernie endorsed Biden, but that isn't enough for you bloodthirsty haters of the left, you want to see us gone from the party and gone from the country.

Maybe we'll split the ticket with a progressive candidate in 2024, we certainly aren't welcome in the Democratic tent anymore. That would account for the Democratic electoral loss I'm seeing in the scrying glass. Like everything else...it will be the fault of the far left.

Not the feckless avoidance of governance by two corporate owned parties....


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/14/20 11:26 PM
Quote
Revolutions without plans...aren't.

We've got plans, and other than Biden they're working out pretty nicely. The progressive agenda is now the defacto platform of the Democratic Party. Biden has basically signed onto it.

So I could ask you the same question...what's the plan Stan?

I don't see much of a plan coming from either party to fix this mess, but our plan has been dismissed as socialism. Unworkable, impossible. etc.

Yes, yes, yes, I know...Trump Trump Trump Trump

Originally Posted by Greger
I really don't know what yall are worrying about. Biden is going to win in November.

This election is yours to lose.

Bernie endorsed Biden, but that isn't enough for you bloodthirsty haters of the left, you want to see us gone from the party and gone from the country.

Oh bullsh!t, and you know it is.
I want pretty much the same things you want, but I just don't think a poorly planned (or utterly unplanned) revolution is going to get us there.
Oh to be sure, I think it would be great if it did.
I think it would be even greater if it was planned and organized.

But it ain't.
We don't even see any founder types congregating at a tavern, real or virtual, to lay out plans.
All "our lil ole forefathers" worked their asses off to plan and organize.
We ain't done diddly squat.

So, because it's clear we ain't done diddly squat, the only other avenue is incrementalism, like pot legalization. That happened incrementally. Gay equality happened incrementally, tons of stuff has happened incrementally.

And as much as you may want to force yourself to believe that I'm some
"bloodthirsty hater of the left, who wants to see you gone from the party and gone from the country, we both know that's baloney, and I don't think you even believe that about me.
Chunk might, but you aren't Chunk.

And as far as the rest of the country goes, check back in a month or two. All Biden will have to do is give the following speech, or something close to it:

Quote
"America, you did not deserve this.
We are Americans, and we used to do a lot better.
The South Koreans handled this crisis better than anyone. They are the gold standard right now, but we, the American people, used to be the gold standard when it came to handling a disaster. We used to have the kind of responsible government that would protect Americans from a pandemic, protect people's jobs, protect people's ability to go about their lives with a measure of safety and stability.

You did not deserve this. You did not deserve this three and a half years of hell brought to you by Donald J Trump.
Now it's time to do something about it.
Turn it around.
Remember in November."

I guarantee you Bernie would have given much the same kind of speech.
But instead it will be Joe Biden.
Thing is, anyone who points directly to the pain we are suffering right now is going to connect with people.

Lots of politicians use pain speeches to connect.
Only one in recent times used it to blame a scapegoat instead of offering solutions, just as his idol did seventy some years ago...IN GERMAN.

Now Americans have seen how blaming scapegoats and dodging responsibility fails the people. Anyone who offers a better idea is going to win.

And by the time 2024 rolls around, I assure you we will be ready to take a turn that puts us on a better and more progressive path.
And plenty of qualified people will be there to jump into the ring.

Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Revolutions without plans...aren't.

We've got plans, and other than Biden they're working out pretty nicely. The progressive agenda is now the defacto platform of the Democratic Party. Biden has basically signed onto it.

So I could ask you the same question...what's the plan Stan?

I don't see much of a plan coming from either party to fix this mess, but our plan has been dismissed as socialism. Unworkable, impossible. etc.

Yes, yes, yes, I know...Trump Trump Trump Trump

You're calling me a Trumper now?
OMG Greger...wow, just wow. ROTFMOL
Posted By: Livetoride Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 12:43 AM
You guys just go back and forth... Truth is, the new deal 2.0 isn't going to happen overnight. The electorate won't support it. Progressives, which I'm on the fringe, must understand their best chance at 2.0 is with the Dems. I see Biden as a nice, calming bridge to get to where many of us want to be. I'm a left leaning Blue Dog. Biden is the person to fill the spot that the Cheeto occupies now. My opinion only.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 12:54 AM
Originally Posted by Livetoride
You guys just go back and forth... Truth is, the new deal 2.0 isn't going to happen overnight. The electorate won't support it. Progressives, which I'm on the fringe, must understand their best chance at 2.0 is with the Dems. I see Biden as a nice, calming bridge to get to where many of us want to be. I'm a left leaning Blue Dog. Biden is the person to fill the spot that the Cheeto occupies now. My opinion only.

I am in agreement.

We aren't just going to magically go from here to there.
The plan is basically the same: Get rid of the dictator. Fix all the government agencies so they do what they were created for. Fix obamacare so it's solid and universal. Fix social security so it's funded now and in the future. Make state colleges and universities free to all qualified students. Find a path to eliminate student debt. Stop shitting on our allies. Stop sucking up to our adversaries.

It's just a matter of getting the majority of the American voters to agree, and figuring out a way to get from here to there.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 01:40 AM
Originally Posted by Livetoride
You guys just go back and forth... Truth is, the new deal 2.0 isn't going to happen overnight. The electorate won't support it. Progressives, which I'm on the fringe, must understand their best chance at 2.0 is with the Dems. I see Biden as a nice, calming bridge to get to where many of us want to be. I'm a left leaning Blue Dog. Biden is the person to fill the spot that the Cheeto occupies now. My opinion only.
I agree. I'm not a Republican nor a Democrat. I never have come close to belonging to either party. I'm nothing more than a swing voter who usually splits his vote, no straight party line for me. I go by the candidates, not political party. Biden represents a return to sanity, a return to normalcy. That's enough for me. A calming bridge, that fits. A Bill Clinton type presidency would be ideal for me. Bill ranks behind IKE and JFK on as the best presidents I have experienced. I never voted for Bill, voting for Perot twice, but sometimes it takes the passage of time to appreciate what you had.

I don't want a ton of new programs whatever they are. Just someone to steady the ship. Someone to bring common sense back to government. Nothing more, nothing less. Perhaps 4 years from now I would be open for newer and better things, not now. No way. Let's just get someone in that I would be comfortable as the leader of this nation. Pretty simple.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 12:40 PM
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
We aren't just going to magically go from here to there.
Haven't you gotten your magic money yet?

Ruby Red slippers are the real deal, bro... you just click the heels together.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 06:24 PM
I watched a Biden interview a couple of weeks ago. He was asked what he would do about Covid-19. His reply is what used to be the way. I may have mentioned it but, just in case. His plan is simple and what most good presidents have done over time. They find somebody who can manage a problem and put them in charge. They do the job and, then, the president claims victory and usually gets another term. If the dems win they will inherit some incredible messes. A collapsed economy, a really huge debt, serious healthcare problems, etc. ALL of which the electorate will expect gets fixed. This is what happens EVERY time the Dems take over! In EVERY instance they fix the inherited problem. Then the Republicans start to whine about the regulations, taxes, etc. They keep it up until they have so demonized the Dems that they can win the next election. This has happened everytime they win an election and they do it because the Dems never fight back, never explain how they came into power (even though they do get elected I am not convinced they have any clue but a sense of foreboding and little else). Instead the Dems to their jobs and get it done. This has been going on for a very long time, over and over again. Last one was when Obama took over.

This time, however, Obama will be standing behind Biden and together they WILL fix the problem because they have the experience, and will, to do exactly that. They will do it whilst getting beat up by the Republicans as well as the far left of the Democratic party, who will be continuously polishing their technique of whine and accuse (thereby actually helping the Republicans in their quest to win the next election).

Sorry, this is just the way it is as well as being the way it has been, for a VERY long time. I know, one would think somebody would get it and fix THAT. Not gonna happen! I continue to blame the mythic American Voting Public that always knows best (in myth and supported by all good wishful thinkers).

Of course none of the above happens if Trump wins the election. Another way to say that is to note that the Democrats have another long history. You know, the one where they screw it all up! That one starts with the infighting and, then, well you know..............
If Biden wins, on January 21st Dr. Fauci will be running the Covid-19 program. Wouldn't it be lovely to actually have qualified experts in each field running all the government departments again? Wow, they might do what they were supposed to do to begin with!

I think Trump and his family will on an extended visit to Argentina or Russia by then.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 07:13 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I think Trump and his family will on an extended visit to Argentina or Russia by then.

What is wrong with right now!?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 08:15 PM
Quote
This time, however, Obama will be standing behind Biden and together they WILL fix the problem because they have the experience
Obama will likely have no hand in Biden's presidency and I'm okay with that. Obama's way of fixing things was to make the rich more secure in their wealth. But Jamie Dimon will probably be called back in to fix up Wall Street's problems again.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 08:22 PM
Quote
You're calling me a Trumper now?
OMG Greger...wow, just wow.
Don't be an idiot.

Your entire focus on fixing every problem starts and ends with Trump.

So yea, in a sense you're a Trumper. He's all you ever talk about about. All you ever think about. I don't give a feck about that idiot. He'll be gone soon and your "Chosen One" isn't much better as near as I can tell.

I'm perfectly happy with Biden saying "I have no idea how to fix x, y, and z, but I know people who can." That's Trump's biggest failing: He thinks he's an expert at everything, and rejects real expertise. All agency in-house expertise is labelled "deep state" and fired if they speak up. The boss is some Trump crony who believes in a lot of nonsense that doesn't work.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
You're calling me a Trumper now?
OMG Greger...wow, just wow.
Don't be an idiot.

Your entire focus on fixing every problem starts and ends with Trump.

So yea, in a sense you're a Trumper. He's all you ever talk about about. All you ever think about. I don't give a feck about that idiot. He'll be gone soon and your "Chosen One" isn't much better as near as I can tell.

Nope, my posting history on a wide variety of issues does not reflect that. As regards letting Trump win, yes...I do tend to obsess more than a little as regards that option, and no one could blame me for that.

But my overall posting history does not reflect an all encompassing obsession with Trump and you know it.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 09:41 PM
Quote
"I have no idea how to fix x, y, and z, but I know people who can."

And this is somehow different from "I'll hire the best people"?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 10:21 PM
Quote
my overall posting history does not reflect an all encompassing obsession with Trump
True, your other obsession is attacking the left.

But it's all good. We're here to rant and rant we will. Even I don't agree with myself a lot of the time. But I never let it come to blows.

We'll see how it works out with President Milquetoast and his whole wheat VP. The signs and portents point to disaster and upheaval. The Marxist mathematics look dire. The timeline for leftward movement has been pushed back. Once in power Democrats will do what Democrats always do...nothing. And Republicans will fly off the handle because they are doing too much and if they try to do anything at all it will be deemed an un-Constitutional power grab.

We're watching re-runs here folks...reruns of Groundhog Day.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/15/20 11:47 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
"I have no idea how to fix x, y, and z, but I know people who can."

And this is somehow different from "I'll hire the best people"?

So you think the president SHOULD make decisions in place of experts in a given field?
Posted By: Livetoride Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 01:00 AM
[/quote]
And Republicans will fly off the handle because they are doing too much and if they try to do anything at all it will be deemed an un-Constitutional power grab [/quote]

Explain your interpretation of the modern republican party again? I'm confused about the definition of a, "republican".
Trump just threatened to adjourn Congress...no dictatorship here...nothing to see, move along...

The Hill

Milquetoast?
Yeah, if that toast is steeped in a nice German lager, one with a lot of heel-clicking in it.

[Linked Image from media.tenor.com]
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
my overall posting history does not reflect an all encompassing obsession with Trump

True, your other obsession is attacking the left.

Translation: I'm not "left enough" so I am "left behind".
Sorry I failed your purity test, Greger. wink

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 01:47 AM
Quote
Milquetoast?
Yeah, if that toast is steeped in a nice German lager, one with a lot of heel-clicking in it.
I was talking about Biden, but whatever...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 01:55 AM
Originally Posted by Livetoride
[/quote]
And Republicans will fly off the handle because they are doing too much and if they try to do anything at all it will be deemed an un-Constitutional power grab

Explain your interpretation of the modern republican party again? I'm confused about the definition of a, "republican". [/quote]

When have Republicans not flown off the handle every time Democrats tried to accomplish anything? ACA comes to mind, perhaps you remember that? My definition of a republican is a right leaning individual who may or may not be a party member. When I use a capital R as in Republican I'm speaking of a registered member of the Republican Party. My interpretation of the Republican Party is roughly equal to the largest smelliest pile of dogsh*t you can imagine. After it's dried out a few days it more resembles the Democrats. It's gone pale, the aroma not quite so pungent and it's more likely to crumble than stick to your shoe.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 01:57 AM
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
"I have no idea how to fix x, y, and z, but I know people who can."

And this is somehow different from "I'll hire the best people"?

So you think the president SHOULD make decisions in place of experts in a given field?

I think Trump promised to "hire the best people"

How is Biden's promise to "hire the best people" different.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 03:27 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Originally Posted by Hamish Howl
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
"I have no idea how to fix x, y, and z, but I know people who can."

And this is somehow different from "I'll hire the best people"?

So you think the president SHOULD make decisions in place of experts in a given field?

I think Trump promised to "hire the best people"

How is Biden's promise to "hire the best people" different.

I would guess that it would be what defines the best people.

Trump's model of the "best people" are the people who will give him a public rim job.
The biggest difference is that Biden is not bat-shiz crazy, so his "experts" would actually be experts. Like professors, scientists, economists, and such rather than Trump crony crackpots and former FOX News broadcasters. "Hire the best people" means hire the worst people in Trump-speak.

Actually hiring the best people is what every competent President has to do. The federal government is way too complex for one person to run all by himself, even if that person is an actual genius. Remember, the rarest of geniuses are only about twice as smart as the average Joe. Two and a half times as smart (IQ 250) does not exist.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
The biggest difference is that Biden is not bat-shiz crazy, so his "experts" would actually be experts. Like professors, scientists, economists, and such rather than Trump crony crackpots and former FOX News broadcasters. "Hire the best people" means hire the worst people in Trump-speak.

Actually hiring the best people is what every competent President has to do. The federal government is way too complex for one person to run all by himself, even if that person is an actual genius. Remember, the rarest of geniuses are only about twice as smart as the average Joe. Two and a half times as smart (IQ 250) does not exist.

And...the other "biggest difference" is that Biden is most likely to actually LISTEN TO the experts.

When's the last time anyone in the current administration actually listened to anyone other than the sycophants in their inner circle, the morons on Fox News, or Rush Limbaugh and Alex Jones?

I have to laugh at anyone who makes a direct comparison between TrumpCo and any Democratic administration. Dried dog crap, please.
They're not far left enough? Yeah okay...they aren't far left enough, they aren't as far left as we need to be.

How on Earth is that the same as being a millimeter away from Viktor Orban. Trump just threatened to adjourn Congress.

Sure, the odds of his gambit succeeding are infinitesimal, at least for now. So, what will Trump do if his plan to erase the Legislative Branch's authority fails? Will he stop and think and will cooler heads prevail?
The odds of that happening are even smaller, because instead, Trump will search for ways to up the ante even more, taking whatever hostages are handy. The man fantasizes about crashing the economy to get his way.

What's next? Starting a war to get satisfaction?
The choruses of "It Can't Happen Here" are getting really old, and so are all the bogus "red lines" that keep getting laid down; Trump will never do this, Trump can't do that, even Trump would never do X or Y, bla bla bla -- he has DONE almost everything folks said he would never do, and even when he has failed to actually do something, that doesn't ever stop him from upping the ante, it spurs him on.

Shall we wait till one of these batsh!t attempts succeeds?
He's already succeeded in crashing the economy just by refusing to take prompt action to stem a pandemic.
Shall we wait for him to start pushing buttons?


Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Two and a half times as smart (IQ 250) does not exist.

Marilyn VosSavant's (yeah right, like that's a real name - LOL) Standford-Binet score was supposedly a record 228.
Her claim to fame?
She's a magazine columnist!

I had a very dear friend who could do advanced physics calculations in his head.
My nuclear physicist father tossed him a couple of questions for fun and damn near fell out of his chair when my friend responded with a correct answer in a matter of seconds.
His claim to fame?
He never got a better job than being a courier.
He too, died at a young age.
He died a bitter, miserable drunk.

The world is full of people with sky-high IQ's who work delivering pizzas. Just having the IQ of a Good Will Hunting is not enough.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 06:26 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
I think Trump promised to "hire the best people"

How is Biden's promise to "hire the best people" different.
Fatboy thinks "best people" are cretins like Betsy De Voss. Clearly Fatboy doesn't understand what the word "best" means. Then again, Fatboy is a functioning illiterate. Biden is literate and knows what words mean.

Hmm
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 06:51 PM
My suspicion is that he might prefer Brazil!

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 08:27 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by Greger
I think Trump promised to "hire the best people"

How is Biden's promise to "hire the best people" different.
Fatboy thinks "best people" are cretins like Betsy De Voss. Clearly Fatboy doesn't understand what the word "best" means. Then again, Fatboy is a functioning illiterate. Biden is literate and knows what words mean.

Hmm

Trump hired the best people to do what he was hired to do. Destroy the departments that Republicans and corporate interests would like to see destroyed. They have done a remarkable job.

Biden is a corporate controlled neoliberal. He will choose the best people to rebuild those departments to better serve corporations while giving lip service to unions and the working class.

He'll be a better president than Trump but that doesn't magically mean he's gonna be a "good" president.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 08:38 PM
Quote
Biden is literate and knows what words mean.
Biden is a peevish old prick who flies off the handle when he's asked hard questions. He will surround himself with people who don't ask hard questions, that don't question his judgement. Remember, he can't remember what town he's in or who he is talking to, he's old and sometimes confused. He won't be able to absorb as much information as a younger sharper man so his intelligence briefings, like Trump's. will need to be kept simple to avoid confusing him. When he gets confused he lashes out.

Apparently when I look at him I see an entirely different person than everyone else.
Posted By: Livetoride Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/16/20 11:07 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Biden is literate and knows what words mean.
Biden is a peevish old prick who flies off the handle when he's asked hard questions. He will surround himself with people who don't ask hard questions, that don't question his judgement. Remember, he can't remember what town he's in or who he is talking to, he's old and sometimes confused. He won't be able to absorb as much information as a younger sharper man so his intelligence briefings, like Trump's. will need to be kept simple to avoid confusing him. When he gets confused he lashes out.

Apparently when I look at him I see an entirely different person than everyone else.

I could not disagree more, and I'm not looking for a fight. Just agree to disagree man,
Almost anybody at the presidential podium would introduce and defer to his expert on the subject, when asked a difficult technical question. Not Trump. It's not a President's job to answer difficult technical questions, unless somebody asked Jimmy Carter a question about nuclear reactors. Ask Biden about a virus, and he would have his HHS or infectious disease expert like Fauci answer. And then not contradict him in the next sentence.

Trump is almost unique in this sense. He's actually told us again and again that he knows more on every subject than the experts. That's a very dangerous delusion for anybody in power to have.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/17/20 12:52 AM
Quote
Just agree to disagree man

In the fullness of time...we will know whether I am right or wrong. I would prefer in the end to agree that you were right.
Originally Posted by Greger
He'll be a better president than Trump but that doesn't magically mean he's gonna be a "good" president.


WORST vs.

OKAY - GOOD - BETTER - BEST

He'll be a better president than Trump - - but let's just let Trump destroy the country, and by proxy, most of the developed world, for another four years, because - -

[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

I just don't get it, and I never will.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/17/20 01:15 AM
I said numerous times on another site that the Democrats should nominate a fresh young face. That if that fresh young face was from flyover country, so much the better. That wasn't to be. Fresh young faces from flyover country had been successful for the Democrats in the past. Obama, Illinois, Bill Clinton, Arkansas, Jimmy Carter, Georgia. Old politicians not so successful. Hillary Clinton 2016, John Kerry 2004, Al Gore 2000, Micheal Dukakis, 1988, Mondale 1984. JFK was young, although LBJ probably would qualify as an old politician. But death led him to the presidency. Then another old politician lost to Nixon in 1968, Humphrey.

This year we were left with two old white men and an old white woman from the Northeast. Although Buttigieg gave me a bit of hope in Iowa and Amy Klobuchar after New Hampshire.

With all said and done at this point, I'll vote and support Biden. I hope he picks a young fresh face for his VP. Again one from flyover country would be ideal. Regional balance on the ticket.

Biden is far from the choice I had hoped for. But he's the one the Democrats chose. I'm not really enthusiastic about him, but of the choices I do think he stands the best chance of dethroning Trump of those who were left prior to Super Tuesday. Unlike a couple of others, I'm sure Biden will win the independent vote and with the democratic party still being the larger of the two major parties, he'll become our next president.

So how about it old Joe, a fresh young face from flyover country as VP. One you can groom for 2024?
He's kind of limited himself by promising to have a woman as VP. I won't be surprised if it's Warren. That would actually help him with the left. She's already said she would do it, if asked. Klobuchar probably gets him more Northern swing states. She's also a lot closer politically to Biden.
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/17/20 03:19 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
He's kind of limited himself by promising to have a woman as VP. I won't be surprised if it's Warren. That would actually help him with the left. She's already said she would do it, if asked. Klobuchar probably gets him more Northern swing states. She's also a lot closer politically to Biden.

Abrahms. Seriously.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/17/20 01:56 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
He's kind of limited himself by promising to have a woman as VP. I won't be surprised if it's Warren. That would actually help him with the left. She's already said she would do it, if asked. Klobuchar probably gets him more Northern swing states. She's also a lot closer politically to Biden.
Warren wouldn't help Biden get to 270. The Northeast is going Democratic whoever Biden chooses as is the West Coast. I would think someone who could deliver a state Trump won in 2016 and have a positive influence in swing states in flyover country would be much better than an old woman, Warren.

Warren probably would hurt Biden in some swing states. Hillary won Minnesota by a single point in 2016, a Klobuchar would guarantee Minnesota stays blue and help in Wisconsin. Baldwin, Wisconsin would deliver that state to Biden, help in Minnesota and Michigan. Whitmer, Michigan would turn Michigan blue, help Biden in neighboring Ohio and Wisconsin. All states Trump won.

Abrams in Georgia wouldn't guarantee a win here. But one must remember she lost the governor's race by a mere 55,000 votes. She's a good campaigner, there is probably around a 40% chance with her as Biden's VP, Georgia could be won. I'd give Masto, Nevada a good hard look. Hispanic and ensures Nevada stays Blue. Masto could deliver Arizona to Biden and would have heavy influence in Texas.

All the above provides regional balance along with helping Biden get to 270. Warren neither helps Biden get to 270 nor does she give the ticket regional balance.

I'm a numbers guy, ideology means little to me. The idea is to get my candidate a win. Warren won't help in the midwest nor the south. Harris has been mentioned, but California is going blue anyway. it make no difference whether Biden wins California by 3 million or 4 million votes.

If I knew of a good candidate from Florida or Pennsylvania that could deliver those states, I'd go with them. You're talking 29 and 20 electoral votes and both states Trump won.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/18/20 03:23 AM
Quote
If I knew of a good candidate from Florida or Pennsylvania that could deliver those states, I'd go with them. You're talking 29 and 20 electoral votes and both states Trump won.
There's no Democrats in Florida to speak of, me and another fella over in Pasco County and I think that's about it.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/18/20 12:15 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
If I knew of a good candidate from Florida or Pennsylvania that could deliver those states, I'd go with them. You're talking 29 and 20 electoral votes and both states Trump won.
There's no Democrats in Florida to speak of, me and another fella over in Pasco County and I think that's about it.
LOL, okay. Well, you'd have to be a woman and preferably a minority to be considered. Congresswoman Demmings has been mentioned. But choosing candidates from the House hasn't had any luck on helping carrying their home state. One just has to go back to 2012 when Romney chose Ryan, they still lost Wisconsin. A candidate from the House just doesn't have that statewide appeal a senator, governor etc. who hold or held statewide office.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/18/20 06:31 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
He's kind of limited himself by promising to have a woman as VP. I won't be surprised if it's Warren. That would actually help him with the left. She's already said she would do it, if asked. Klobuchar probably gets him more Northern swing states. She's also a lot closer politically to Biden.
Warren wouldn't help Biden get to 270. The Northeast is going Democratic whoever Biden chooses as is the West Coast. I would think someone who could deliver a state Trump won in 2016 and have a positive influence in swing states in flyover country would be much better than an old woman, Warren.

Warren probably would hurt Biden in some swing states. Hillary won Minnesota by a single point in 2016, a Klobuchar would guarantee Minnesota stays blue and help in Wisconsin. Baldwin, Wisconsin would deliver that state to Biden, help in Minnesota and Michigan. Whitmer, Michigan would turn Michigan blue, help Biden in neighboring Ohio and Wisconsin. All states Trump won.

Abrams in Georgia wouldn't guarantee a win here. But one must remember she lost the governor's race by a mere 55,000 votes. She's a good campaigner, there is probably around a 40% chance with her as Biden's VP, Georgia could be won. I'd give Masto, Nevada a good hard look. Hispanic and ensures Nevada stays Blue. Masto could deliver Arizona to Biden and would have heavy influence in Texas.

All the above provides regional balance along with helping Biden get to 270. Warren neither helps Biden get to 270 nor does she give the ticket regional balance.

I'm a numbers guy, ideology means little to me. The idea is to get my candidate a win. Warren won't help in the midwest nor the south. Harris has been mentioned, but California is going blue anyway. it make no difference whether Biden wins California by 3 million or 4 million votes.

If I knew of a good candidate from Florida or Pennsylvania that could deliver those states, I'd go with them. You're talking 29 and 20 electoral votes and both states Trump won.

I'm not sure if I can say that you are definitely right, but, I don't think you're wrong when it comes to Kloubachar. If I had to lay money, it'd be on her as the wisest choice.

I do think that, in a country dealing with a crises (and likely still dealing with its effects come November) that Abrams may be a weaker candidate than you depict - people tend to lean towards experience in higher-risk scenarios.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/18/20 06:47 PM
Originally Posted by CPWILL
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
He's kind of limited himself by promising to have a woman as VP. I won't be surprised if it's Warren. That would actually help him with the left. She's already said she would do it, if asked. Klobuchar probably gets him more Northern swing states. She's also a lot closer politically to Biden.
Warren wouldn't help Biden get to 270. The Northeast is going Democratic whoever Biden chooses as is the West Coast. I would think someone who could deliver a state Trump won in 2016 and have a positive influence in swing states in flyover country would be much better than an old woman, Warren.

Warren probably would hurt Biden in some swing states. Hillary won Minnesota by a single point in 2016, a Klobuchar would guarantee Minnesota stays blue and help in Wisconsin. Baldwin, Wisconsin would deliver that state to Biden, help in Minnesota and Michigan. Whitmer, Michigan would turn Michigan blue, help Biden in neighboring Ohio and Wisconsin. All states Trump won.

Abrams in Georgia wouldn't guarantee a win here. But one must remember she lost the governor's race by a mere 55,000 votes. She's a good campaigner, there is probably around a 40% chance with her as Biden's VP, Georgia could be won. I'd give Masto, Nevada a good hard look. Hispanic and ensures Nevada stays Blue. Masto could deliver Arizona to Biden and would have heavy influence in Texas.

All the above provides regional balance along with helping Biden get to 270. Warren neither helps Biden get to 270 nor does she give the ticket regional balance.

I'm a numbers guy, ideology means little to me. The idea is to get my candidate a win. Warren won't help in the midwest nor the south. Harris has been mentioned, but California is going blue anyway. it make no difference whether Biden wins California by 3 million or 4 million votes.

If I knew of a good candidate from Florida or Pennsylvania that could deliver those states, I'd go with them. You're talking 29 and 20 electoral votes and both states Trump won.

I'm not sure if I can say that you are definitely right, but, I don't think you're wrong when it comes to Kloubachar. If I had to lay money, it'd be on her as the wisest choice.

I do think that, in a country dealing with a crises (and likely still dealing with its effects come November) that Abrams may be a weaker candidate than you depict - people tend to lean towards experience in higher-risk scenarios.
I'm a numbers guy. Abrams is a good fit if Biden is trying to win Georgia. Deny Georgia to Trump. It could work, but the percentages is against it. Perhaps a 40% chance of success.

Klobuchar guarantees Minnesota stays blue, probably helps in Wisconsin and a bit in Michigan. She's a midwesterner with experience which you point out. She could also campaign a lot in Ohio as she would easier relate there than Biden, at least I think so. Her and Sherod Brown could hit the circuit.

Now numbers wise, Masto might be the best choice. Keep Nevada blue, bring out a huge Hispanic vote in Arizona, deliver Arizona and make a positive influence in Texas. Surprisingly, Biden trails Trump by just 2 points in Texas today. Masto could make the difference there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

I'm more or less in agreement on Abrams as she can't guarantee Georgia. Klobuchar or Masto would be the better fits.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/20/20 03:00 AM
I found this quite interesting.

Vote for Biden? Sanders Supporters Say It's 'Up in the Air'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-biden-sanders-supporters-air-153759766.html

As a numbers guy, not really ideological, I'm fascinated about this group of progressives, Sanders supporters. It's hard to put a percentage on what percent of the democratic party these folks make up. Looking at the available numbers to include primary votes and other polls which do break down ideology, I'd say progressives make up somewhere from a quarter to a third of the Democratic Party. Yet they seem to think they who make up a quarter to a third should have the say in who the democrats nominate and exactly what the democratic party's ideology should be without regard to the other 2/3rds to 3/4ths.

I've never been an ideologue, so a lot of this leaves me scratching my head. This isn't to say I don't respect who Sanders supporters will vote for or if they choose not to vote at all. That's their decision and we all have our own reason why we vote the way we do or don't vote at all. Reasons that make perfect sense to them even though others may look on their reasons as being asinine.

I'll add this which may help to explain it. Looking at the exit polls from the primaries it's easy to see Sanders received the big majority of independents who voted in the Democratic primaries. Biden had the support of a huge majority of those who identified themselves as Democrats. Sanders labels himself a independent, not a democrat. So even if I was a left leaning independent, a independent that leans toward the Democratic Party, I wouldn't have the loyalty to the democratic party that those who affiliate or identify themselves as Democrats. Even thought I lean toward the democrats, my vote is still up for grabs. Although I will choose to vote democratic 3 out of 4 times. Historical average. I'm not a party faithful or loyalist which votes for the democratic party's candidates 90% plus of the time regardless of who that candidate is.

To lump all Sanders supporters as Democrats is wrong. I'd say at least half or perhaps a bit more are independents, not party loyalist. the polls, exit polls, favorable/unfavorable polls, even head to head matchup's show this.

The fact that Independents who supported Sanders would prefer Trump to Biden tells me they have no understanding of policies. All they care about is an Impressive Man on a Big White Horse. I guess Sanders or Trump could be that for some folks. Biden is not that, but he would pursue much more progressive policies than Trump. Much more like Sanders' policies.

So, what percentage of Independents care about policies, versus what percentage like "reality shows" and WWE Wrestling?
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
The fact that Independents who supported Sanders would prefer Trump to Biden tells me they have no understanding of policies. All they care about is an Impressive Man on a Big White Horse. I guess Sanders or Trump could be that for some folks. Biden is not that, but he would pursue much more progressive policies than Trump. Much more like Sanders' policies.

So, what percentage of Independents care about policies, versus what percentage like "reality shows" and WWE Wrestling?

Independents who supported Sanders and want to "pick Trump in a fit of pique" are generally people who have fits of pique quite often about almost anything and everything.
Pique defines their approach to most things in life.
Fits of pique are a luxury that is most often associated with excess wealth and security, at least on a relative scale.

And if one leads that kind of life, one is indeed very lucky.
Until their luck runs out.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/21/20 12:53 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
The fact that Independents who supported Sanders would prefer Trump to Biden tells me they have no understanding of policies. All they care about is an Impressive Man on a Big White Horse. I guess Sanders or Trump could be that for some folks. Biden is not that, but he would pursue much more progressive policies than Trump. Much more like Sanders' policies.

So, what percentage of Independents care about policies, versus what percentage like "reality shows" and WWE Wrestling?
For a lot of independents, the presidential election is a beauty contest. Most independents don't pay any attention to the day to day political grind going on in Washington D.C. At least half of independents make up their minds within a month of the election who they will vote for. Most are too busy with their daily lives, making ends meet, rooting for their favorite sports team, watching their favorite show on TV, a million other things much more important to them than politics.

That's more or less a very short over view. Now Sanders supporters are different than your average independent or swing voter. They owe their loyalty to the man, the individual and not to any political party. You seen this in 2016, the democratic base voted for Hillary 88-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party. Sanders supporters voted 75-12 Hillary over Trump but with an amazing 13% voting third party. Who knows how many stayed home and didn't vote. Their politics centered around one man, not the nation, not a political party, they wanted one man and only one man, without him nothing else mattered.

My grand daughter who was going to Kennesaw State back in 2016 was an avid Sanders supporter. When he didn't get the nomination, she refused to vote. The way she put it, she couldn't support the racist Trump nor could she support Wall Street Hillary. She stayed home. For her and for many Sanders supporters it was Sanders or no one.

I imagine it's the same today, this election cycles from what I've been reading. That Biden probably will get around the same 75% of Sanders supporters who will vote, a bunch will stay home ala 2016. That Biden will get 90-91% of the democratic base vote, more than Hillary.

Now independents are pretty much split between Trump and Biden. At least according to the polls. It's still very early with what I would say only 40% or so of independents have their minds set on who they will vote for today. The rest are still up for grabs.This in contrast to the party faithful which 90% plus of each party know exactly who they'll vote for.
Originally Posted by perotista
My grand daughter who was going to Kennesaw State back in 2016 was an avid Sanders supporter. When he didn't get the nomination, she refused to vote. The way she put it, she couldn't support the racist Trump nor could she support Wall Street Hillary. She stayed home. For her and for many Sanders supporters it was Sanders or no one.

I imagine it's the same today...(SNIP)

You don't have to imagine. Query your granddaughter and ask if she intends to do the same this time around. At least you will know if one person's principles have been shattered enough by the Horror of Trump to change her mind.

I say "principles" because Trump has shattered mine so thoroughly that I cannot even begin to imagine handing him a victory.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/22/20 12:22 PM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by perotista
My grand daughter who was going to Kennesaw State back in 2016 was an avid Sanders supporter. When he didn't get the nomination, she refused to vote. The way she put it, she couldn't support the racist Trump nor could she support Wall Street Hillary. She stayed home. For her and for many Sanders supporters it was Sanders or no one.

I imagine it's the same today...(SNIP)

You don't have to imagine. Query your granddaughter and ask if she intends to do the same this time around. At least you will know if one person's principles have been shattered enough by the Horror of Trump to change her mind.

I say "principles" because Trump has shattered mine so thoroughly that I cannot even begin to imagine handing him a victory.

No, she's out of college, got a job, married, has a daughter and has lost all interest in politics. It was probably peer pressure at college that made her a Sanders supporter.That was the in thing or the fad back then.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 12:36 AM
Quote
That was the in thing or the fad back then.

It's easy to embrace socialism when you lead a socialist life. When you enter the capitalist society it gets beaten out of you. The struggle is just to survive as the machine spins around you, the only revolution you have time for is doing your job as a cog in the machine, spinning and spinning endlessly.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 04:25 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
That was the in thing or the fad back then.

It's easy to embrace socialism when you lead a socialist life. When you enter the capitalist society it gets beaten out of you. The struggle is just to survive as the machine spins around you, the only revolution you have time for is doing your job as a cog in the machine, spinning and spinning endlessly.

If only there was some way to reliably save a portion of your income over time and become financially independent smile

Good friend of mine is getting his financial life back on track right now - mostly thanks to some information, but with a nice boost from an inheritance from his grandfather. Old boy was a lawn mower repairman, came from the back swamps, died with a little over $3 million that he left to all the causes, kids, grand kids, etc. Nobody knew till he died because (shrug) why should they?

All the "It Can't Be Done" and "You're Just Trapped In The Rat Race" is baloney. smile Here in this country, generally, we are the ones who trap ourselves.


I'm a single-income millennial family, and I approved this message smile
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 06:13 AM
What is it called when a person makes a bunch of money as a result of inheritance? Is that good ol’ earning it the hard way capitalism that anybody can do if they just put their mind to it?

I’ve always dreamed of a life of getting rich by fixing lawnmowers.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 04:03 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
What is it called when a person makes a bunch of money as a result of inheritance? Is that good ol’ earning it the hard way capitalism that anybody can do if they just put their mind to it?

:shrug: it's called getting an inheritance. In his case, it's getting $5K a year for the next 5 years, which is going to help him get out of debt and start saving up a down payment.

But I would say that he (or you, or I) "earned" it no more or less than we "earned" a country free of civil war to grow up in, an education system, rule of law, lessons in thrift and savings, good work ethics, or anything else that provides us a benefit now that our parents, grandparents, and ancestors passed on to us.

Quote
I’ve always dreamed of a life of getting rich by fixing lawnmowers.

It's not a bad way to do it. A recent study of American millionaires came back with some interesting data - the three most common occupations were Accountant, Engineer, and Teacher.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 06:12 PM
Quote
All the "It Can't Be Done" and "You're Just Trapped In The Rat Race" is baloney.

For some that's true. For others it is not. It is the others I speak of, not brilliant and successful X-ennials such as yourself. I would suggest that someone like you would succeed no matter the odds. Someone like me on the other hand gets by no matter what, but never really finds success. Lesser men and women stumble along the way.

What of them? Do we simply leave them behind? Casualties to be expected for those who would succeed?

What you seem to be saying is that things are fine the way they are. All we need is a Republican president, a strong military, and a weak government and we're good to go into the next century.

I disagree with that.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 06:59 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
All the "It Can't Be Done" and "You're Just Trapped In The Rat Race" is baloney.

For some that's true. For others it is not. It is the others I speak of, not brilliant and successful X-ennials such as yourself. I would suggest that someone like you would succeed no matter the odds.

Hey - Flattery will get you noeverywhere, buddy laugh

But, while brilliance can make you m/billions if you are the Particular Right Kind of brilliant, generally, it's not superior IQ that makes one wealthy, but superior discipline.

Quote
Someone like me on the other hand gets by no matter what, but never really finds success. Lesser men and women stumble along the way. What of them? Do we simply leave them behind? Casualties to be expected for those who would succeed?

I think most of those are suffering not because they lack the opportunity, but because they lack a plan and will to apply it. I do financial counseling for free on the side - few people come to me because they've got six figure incomes and don't know what to do with it all. Usually it's the people that you are describing; those who feel they are barely hanging on, on the margins, etc. I've worked with folks who technically made less than minimum wage, and with folks whose monthly minimum payments were greater than their monthly take-home pay. I've not yet come across a hopeless case.

The basic principles aren't rocket science - they're actually pretty simple: get out of and avoid debt, live on less than you make, save and invest over your entire working life.

I'm working with one couple right now with three kids on a single income of $20/ hour, with a mortgage, medical, and credit card debt. We've spent the last couple of months or so meeting regularly to go over how to structure certain things (what kind of life insurance do each of you need? How do we structure getting out of debt?). He's 32, she's 28. Even if he never gets a raise (and he will, he's a good worker), they'll probably be (inflation-adjusted) millionaires by their mid 60s. That's not exactly F You Money, but it is something that will allow them to retire in comfort when they get to that point. That's a pretty typical result. Application of wise principles and prudence over time produces bounty. :shrug: smile


Quote
What you seem to be saying is that things are fine the way they are. All we need is a Republican president, a strong military, and a weak government and we're good to go into the next century.

I think you may be projecting onto me. Much of our society today is literally better than anyone has experienced at any time in human history. That is not the same as Everything Is Fine The Way It Is. Some of the worst things that we have and do isn't linked to economics, but, we definitely have created an unsustainable public fiscal nightmare. When we are no longer able to pay out promised benefits in real terms... its gonna get ugly frown.

I also think that the way we currently try to help the poor actually often harms them, sometimes deeply. That's terrible policy, and those programs should be upended and reorganized recognizing their unintended consequences and adjusting for them (Full Disclosure: I really think we should replace our current regime of transfer-payments to a single Negative Income Tax of -50% on all monies not earned below 200% of the poverty line). That we punish low-income workers for getting married or earning a raise is insane.

There are other scenario's for which one's ability to grow is and will remain strongly limited. Severe Disability. Death of the single-income-earner in a household. But for the vast, vast majority of Americans, opportunity is wider open than at any other time in human history, and is achievable.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 07:35 PM
Quote
Much of our society today is literally better than anyone has experienced at any time in human history.

As far as technology goes, yes, as far as the wealthy having and enjoying luxuries far beyond the means of the common man, no. That's always been the case. I agree that never in the history of man have so many had so much. But look around, young fellah, was it worth what it cost? Your grandchildren will see American cities crumble into the sea.
You might see Miami and New Orleans abandoned in your lifetime. We are in the middle of an extinction event and are ourselves on the path to extinction. All that so many could have so much and believe that they actually deserved all of it and more more more!

We screamin' full speed down a dead end street and no one is willing to apply the brakes.

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 09:54 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
We screamin' full speed down a dead end street and no one is willing to apply the brakes.
My read is that Capitalism depends upon externalization of as much of the cost as you can get away with! It is devoid of ethics, consideration, heart, or soul. Them things is weaknesses for chumps who know that dying with millions in the bank is the one and only true prize.

And the diehard money-makers likes it just fine thataway...
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 10:35 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Much of our society today is literally better than anyone has experienced at any time in human history.

As far as technology goes, yes, as far as the wealthy having and enjoying luxuries far beyond the means of the common man, no. That's always been the case. I agree that never in the history of man have so many had so much. But look around, young fellah, was it worth what it cost? Your grandchildren will see American cities crumble into the sea.
You might see Miami and New Orleans abandoned in your lifetime. We are in the middle of an extinction event and are ourselves on the path to extinction. All that so many could have so much and believe that they actually deserved all of it and more more more!

We screamin' full speed down a dead end street and no one is willing to apply the brakes.

Eh. While it's always possible, every single post-industrial semi-Malthusian humanity-destroying-nightmare (Race Suicide! Global Cooling! Mass Starvation! Holes in Ozone Frying Us All! Deforestation! Global Warming! General Change!) has proven incapable to its claims. My grandchildren are more likely to have lives that are even more advanced from my own than my life is removed from my Grandparents growing up in the Depression.

Mind you, I am still paranoid. I own guns, am starting to build up ammo, and am looking to get out of my "neighborhood" and onto "land" away from people where I can build my own little food supply, local renewable energy, etc. But, unfortunately, the Apocalypse is pretty unlikely smile
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/26/20 11:25 PM
Originally Posted by CPWILL
But, unfortunately, the Apocalypse is pretty unlikely smile
Apocalypse? Thot you was opposed to hyperbole. It's more like frogs in a pot of water. Or maybe we are like a slow-motion plague of locusts. But you're right, we probably won't see McCarthy's Road - that will be your kids' or grandkids' unique experience. Externalizing the costs, and whatnot.

A free market Capitalism ideologue and a science denier, too?

Crikey! No wonder I can't seem to get you to discuss anything with an open mind.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/20 12:30 AM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by CPWILL
But, unfortunately, the Apocalypse is pretty unlikely smile
Apocalypse? Thot you was opposed to hyperbole.

I would consider the extinction of the Human Species - which is what he claimed was coming - to be something worth describing in that manner, yes smile.

Quote
It's more like frogs in a pot of water. Or maybe we are like a slow-motion plague of locusts. But you're right, we probably won't see McCarthy's Road - that will be your kids' or grandkids' unique experience.

Probably not.

Quote
A free market Capitalism ideologue and a science denier, too?

Crikey! No wonder I can't seem to get you to discuss anything with an open mind.

Probably because you are not used to talking with people who have significantly different priors, and thus confuse "comes to the same conclusions I do" with "has an open mind" smile
You know, there's no reason to go nuts on the self-reliance path. No reason to buy land where you can graze cattle and grow wheat. But it would be smart to get out of HOA-land suburbia so you can plant a vegetable garden, have some chickens, and put in some solar panels. I think a few big dogs are better than having guns and ammo. Better to scare off burglars than to have to shoot them. The legal hassles are insane, if you do.

Just making a few wise decisions and sticking to them is really all you need to do for financial security. Learn to get by with what you can afford, instead of every shiny new googaw on TV. Same for college for kids. Don't spend your retirement savings on some expensive school, when there are much cheaper options. With the right degree from a state school, they can do fine.

As for inheritance, there are some huge tax loopholes in there: Inheritance of capital assets can be never-taxed, which is nothing but welfare for the rich. Bring back the inheritance tax or tax it for capital gains at death. That would make a huge difference in the wealth imbalance in America.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/20 12:59 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
You know, there's no reason to go nuts on the self-reliance path. No reason to buy land where you can graze cattle and grow wheat. But it would be smart to get out of HOA-land suburbia so you can plant a vegetable garden, have some chickens, and put in some solar panels. I think a few big dogs are better than having guns and ammo. Better to scare off burglars than to have to shoot them. The legal hassles are insane, if you do.

Better to have both options wink. If people want to flee because they hear dogs barking, that's obviously preferable. If they are armed themselves... dog's will mostly just announce their arrival and then slow them down.

But, yeah, we are thinking Chickens, a good vegetable garden, a goat, enough woods to perhaps do some light trapping/hunting, some solar, and a well.


Quote
Just making a few wise decisions and sticking to them is really all you need to do for financial security. Learn to get by with what you can afford, instead of every shiny new googaw on TV. Same for college for kids. Don't spend your retirement savings on some expensive school, when there are much cheaper options. With the right degree from a state school, they can do fine.

Truth. There are basically two and a half levels of college in America

1. The Ivy Leagues for particular job fields (Harvard Law is different than Harvard Social Studies)
2. Everyone else, except perhaps Phoenix University
2a. Phoenix University

Where you fall in the second category doesn't really determine your job prospects all that much.

Quote
As for inheritance, there are some huge tax loopholes in there: Inheritance of capital assets can be never-taxed, which is nothing but welfare for the rich. Bring back the inheritance tax or tax it for capital gains at death. That would make a huge difference in the wealth imbalance in America.

Inheritance is way overplayed as a source of wealth in America and as a source of wealth inequality. You could have taxed 100% of everything Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffet inherited and made not a difference at all to wealth inequality.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/20 04:12 AM
Originally Posted by CPWILL
Inheritance is way overplayed as a source of wealth in America and as a source of wealth inequality. You could have taxed 100% of everything Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffet inherited and made not a difference at all to wealth inequality.
Real economists disagree with you armchair economist types. smile
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/20 04:29 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by CPWILL
Inheritance is way overplayed as a source of wealth in America and as a source of wealth inequality. You could have taxed 100% of everything Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffet inherited and made not a difference at all to wealth inequality.
Real economists disagree with you armchair economist types. smile

smile What percentage of American Millionaires offhand (no looking) would you say inherited their wealth?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/27/20 05:24 PM
Quote
What percentage of American Millionaires offhand (no looking) would you say inherited their wealth?

Donald Trump.
Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffet are the extremely rare exceptions because how ever much they inherited is dwarfed by what they have built. I am thinking much more of rich families with trust funds for all, that ensure they never have to do anything useful in their lives.

We are mostly conditioned to think of a million dollar inheritance as a big deal. But that's not 1%. That's not even 5%. These inheritances are in the hundreds of millions. If you want to exempt estates under 5 million, that's fine. A few years back the real owners of the Republican Party were willing to trade the 10 million dollar exemption for a 5 million dollar exemption with a slightly lower rate. If you did the math, that would benefit heirs of 100 million dollar estates, not the 10 million dollar farmers and small business owners Republicans claimed to represent.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/28/20 11:43 PM
Quote
rich families with trust funds for all, that ensure they never have to do anything useful in their lives
That's what my oldest daughter married into.

I don't know that there are an awful lot of those folks. God bless 'em for having rich parents, we should all be so lucky! And so should our kids.

But right now, there is too much wealth concentrated at the top and it needs to find a safety valve to get it back into circulation, a legislated trickle down, so to speak.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 04/29/20 03:37 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
What percentage of American Millionaires offhand (no looking) would you say inherited their wealth?

Donald Trump.

Yup.

Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffet are the extremely rare exceptions because how ever much they inherited is dwarfed by what they have built. I am thinking much more of rich families with trust funds for all, that ensure they never have to do anything useful in their lives.

As of last year, there were about 7.5 million "Millionaire Households"; about 79% of them did not inherit any money, and only 3% became a millionaire by inheritance.
Your statistics pretty much prove my point: A millionaire household is just a working couple or even a single salary with a good job, and some prudent saving and investment. Those are NOT the trust fund families I'm talking about.

A household that earns a million per year is something altogether different.

This is why I say set the inheritance tax exemption at 5 or even 10 million, and you get rid of obscene wealth that corrupts governments into making themselves even richer.
Apparently Trump is totally freaked out and screaming at his campaign people when they tell him he is losing in the polls. They finally convinced him his daily press bitch sessions were hurting a lot more than helping. I think he's going to stage a big rally soon somewhere, and get a lot of his supporters dead. Or just have a stroke.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Apparently Trump is totally freaked out and screaming at his campaign people when they tell him he is losing in the polls. They finally convinced him his daily press bitch sessions were hurting a lot more than helping. I think he's going to stage a big rally soon somewhere, and get a lot of his supporters dead. Or just have a stroke.

He's also gone back to flatly stating that the virus will "just go away... it will be eradicated, without a vaccine."

Quote
"If you don't have the vaccine, if the virus is gone, we're like we were before, but having a vaccine would be a great thing."


There is a lot to unpack in that statement.
Not a lot of different things, just one really REALLY BIG THING.
The fact that Trump says he believe the virus will go away without a vaccine indicates that Donald Trump isn't the least bit interested in developing one, and in fact he may even try to manipulate the effort to benefit his own agenda, even if to do so would destroy the effort altogether.

As with anything Trump, expect the unexpected. Far as he's concerned, vaccines are some unknowable unobtanium thing that to him costs too much, and takes too long, and he just doesn't give two sh!ts about them.

Don't be surprised if he decides to target ANY federal help in the vaccine effort.





He's just not interested in anything that takes longer than November. If we could get a vaccine before then, he would gladly take credit for it. And in fact, maybe we can. There are clinical trials in progress already.
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
He's just not interested in anything that takes longer than November. If we could get a vaccine before then, he would gladly take credit for it. And in fact, maybe we can. There are clinical trials in progress already.

The only vaccine he should really be interested in is one that cures the effects of Tertiary Syphilitic Dementia.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/01/20 03:16 AM
Here's an interesting article, something I've been talking about a lot. That those voters who disliked both candidates, that those who voted for the candidate they least wanted to lose, not win which was Trump are now choosing Biden. One also has to remember that 9 million voters in 2016 refused to choose between Hillary Clinton and Trump, their dislike for both was that high they voted for a third party candidate that they knew had no chance of winning. Such was the amount of dislike of both major party candidates.

"For Some Reluctant Trump Voters, Coronavirus Was The Last Straw"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/reluctant-trump-voters-coronavirus-last-195429217.html

For the record, I was one of the 9 million folks who voted against both Trump and Clinton. Both major party candidates disgusted me to no end. It was like both major parties went searching for the candidates that would disgust most Americans, candidates Americans would dislike and not want to become their next president. They certainly succeeded in 2016.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/03/20 04:10 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Here's an interesting article, something I've been talking about a lot. That those voters who disliked both candidates, that those who voted for the candidate they least wanted to lose, not win which was Trump are now choosing Biden. One also has to remember that 9 million voters in 2016 refused to choose between Hillary Clinton and Trump, their dislike for both was that high they voted for a third party candidate that they knew had no chance of winning. Such was the amount of dislike of both major party candidates.

"For Some Reluctant Trump Voters, Coronavirus Was The Last Straw"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/reluctant-trump-voters-coronavirus-last-195429217.html

That is interesting, and wouldn't surprise me.

Quote
For the record, I was one of the 9 million folks who voted against both Trump and Clinton. Both major party candidates disgusted me to no end. It was like both major parties went searching for the candidates that would disgust most Americans, candidates Americans would dislike and not want to become their next president. They certainly succeeded in 2016.

laugh Don't forget the Libertarians, who did their best to compete in kind.

2016 proved again the truth of Greek Tragedy, wherein the failings of each actor proved their downfall, even the actor who seemingly "won", but who seems likely now to receive its comeuppance... due to those same failings.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/03/20 06:01 PM
The problem with the Libertarians is they only field candidates for the presidency and a few senate races. There is no grass roots or base for them. It's kind of like they are satisfied with having only 2 or 3% of the electorate to identify with them.

They're not active at the local level, at the county or town and city level. Only at the national level. Then too, only about half or less that identify with the Libertarian Party will actually vote for their candidates. Preferring to vote for the lesser of two evils from the two major parties. Unless the Libertarians drop down to the grass roots level, the local level and field candidates there, they'll be just a third name on the ballot with no real meaning and with no chance at all. Especially at the national level.

I never understood that.
That's simple: They don't want to lead a massive party and win control of the country, because they all know their ideas would be a disaster. They just want attention and adoration from their (few) fans. Promoting an "Everybody Else Is Wrong" agenda is an easy way to stand out from the crowd. If they promoted standard Democratic or Republican ideas then they would just be one of many.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/03/20 07:20 PM
When it comes right down to it I never understood Hillary's "failings" or why she disgusted so many people. And I will certainly never understand why anybody thought Trump was a better choice.
**no need to read further, I'm just ranting**

There is not a single incident which has occurred over the last four years that wouldn't have been better handled under her administration.

Thousands of lives would have been saved over the last two months with any able administrator at the helm. Clinton has a decades long record fighting for better healthcare. Her people would have been on this Corona virus thing like stink on sh*t. And Republicans would have fought her every step of the way. But tens of thousands of lives might have been saved. Two Trillion Dollars was handed over to the Trump administration to do with as they pleased.

Without accountability.

The President's son in law informs us those medical stockpiles belong to the Trump Family, not the united states. And the Trump Family will sell them to whom they please for as much as they can get. And they will mostly buy them from their friends. They will even buy them from friends who don't have them to sell.

Millions have been made to suffer over the last three years, perhaps a few thousand have seen benefits relatable to his presidency. He intentionally overheated the economy for maximum possible profit.

He controls the stock market with his tweets.

And some here think he may go down in history as a pretty good president.

Are all of his cell phone calls private? Or will we one day have access to the tapes?
Originally Posted by Greger
When it comes right down to it I never understood Hillary's "failings" or why she disgusted so many people. And I will certainly never understand why anybody thought Trump was a better choice.

If you have the financial resources to overheat the global economy, then it stands to reason that you have the financial resources to build a fake cardboard cutout of Hillary and convince enough big money donors that she is the boogeyman.
All you need besides that is the willingness to break some laws (oh wait, not some...A LOT!) and hire enough attorneys to stall prosecution until the next century.

That's my takeaway from it.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/13/20 12:03 PM
Here's an interesting article I received from Gallup this AM.

"Attention to U.S. Election Reverts to Pre-Primary Level"

https://news.gallup.com/poll/310892...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

This is what caught my eye, it's lower down in the article.

Enthusiasm has declined since January among both party groups -- down six points among Republicans (to 62%) and down seven points among Democrats (to 54%).
Jared Kushner is saying that the November 3rd elections will be postponed. The idiot doesn't know that it's done by Federal Law. Oh well, who knows what the Trump Crime Family will be able to do.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kushner-law-aside-doesnt-rule-121444216.html
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/13/20 05:06 PM
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Jared Kushner is saying that the November 3rd elections will be postponed. The idiot doesn't know that it's done by Federal Law. Oh well, who knows what the Trump Crime Family will be able to do.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kushner-law-aside-doesnt-rule-121444216.html
This explains it nicely.

https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/does-the-constitution-allow-for-a-delayed-presidential-election

What's interesting, the president's term is up at noon on the 20th of January 2021. If no one has qualified as president by that time, the Speaker of the House would serve as acting president until someone has qualified as president. The article explains fully. In this case, it very well could be the current Speaker Pelosi.

Regardless of all the scenarios provided, election or no election, Trump's and Pence's terms are up at noon, 20 Jan 2021. There's no way they could continue to serve.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/13/20 05:22 PM
Quote
There's no way they could continue to serve.

There's no way the Supreme Court would protect Trump's tax returns either. Federal Law grants the House the right to carry out investigations and do not protect the president from them.
It appears the Supreme Court has just changed the law where it applies to Trump. Apparently NO laws apply to the current president.

If Donald Trump takes a notion to stay in office there are simply no laws that can stop him. There are no courts that can stop him.

Donald Trump, his family, his friends, and his business are fully above the law.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
There's no way they could continue to serve.

There's no way the Supreme Court would protect Trump's tax returns either. Federal Law grants the House the right to carry out investigations and do not protect the president from them.
It appears the Supreme Court has just changed the law where it applies to Trump. Apparently NO laws apply to the current president.

If Donald Trump takes a notion to stay in office there are simply no laws that can stop him. There are no courts that can stop him.

Donald Trump, his family, his friends, and his business are fully above the law.

Yep, that's what the Bernie or Bust types unleashed on us (among other culprits). That's what happens when our courts get 280 judges and 2 justices (more to come) appointed by Trump. That's what the people who threw a tantrum and defected have created. I've been warning people about this since early 2016, and if you look at the string of lower and higher court decisions of late, you'll see the damage in full force.

But, you know, immature Millennials thought that it would be fun to throw a tantrum.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/16/20 02:00 AM
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Right. Blame everybody but the Democrats. Son, it's the Democrats that lost the election. And they wanna blame non-democrats for their loss?

Elections are about turnout. Trump excited Republicans and they came out and voted in all the right places.

Hillary did not excite the democratic base or much of anybody else and she lost the election. Don't be pointing your finger at me and my friends because your horse lost the race.

Your horse might very well lose the race again and again you can blame everybody else for your party's failings at the polls.

And I will laugh.
Originally Posted by Greger
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Right. Blame everybody but the Democrats. Son, it's the Democrats that lost the election. And they wanna blame non-democrats for their loss?

Elections are about turnout. Trump excited Republicans and they came out and voted in all the right places.

Hillary did not excite the democratic base or much of anybody else and she lost the election. Don't be pointing your finger at me and my friends because your horse lost the race.

Your horse might very well lose the race again and again you can blame everybody else for your party's failings at the polls.

And I will laugh.

My horse lost the race because you guys backed the wrong horse (among some other reasons, sure, but this reason was sufficient in itself).

All together we would have defeated Trump. You guys decided to throw a tantrum, so, now, don't complain of Trump. You guys lost that right because you brought it upon yourselves (and upon us all).

I didn't get your part about Democrats. What non-democrats am I blaming? That I know, your horse ran as a Democrat (twice; not that he didn't whine all the time about the very Democratic rules he signed on, when he asked the party to allow him to run as a Democrat).
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/17/20 07:17 PM
Projected, who loses and who wins confessional seats after the 2020 census and reapportionment.

https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/...d-on-new-census-population-data_925.html

Interesting that California is projected to lose one seat while Texas gains 3 and Florida 2. This will be the first time since California became a state it would lose a seat. Montana gaining one is a mild surprise to me, but none of the others. Some earlier projections had New York losing two
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/19/20 09:26 PM
Interesting polling results here.

"New polls show trouble for Trump and Republicans in GOP strongholds"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-poll...licans-in-gop-strongholds-190547796.html

But the polling firms who took these aren't known for having the best reliable results.

Now I agree with the Arizona results, Biden does have a good lead there and Democratic Kelly is the favorite to win Arizona's senate seat currently held by McSally.

But other polls show Trump expanding his lead in Texas, Trump is slightly ahead in Georgia with the two senate seats leaning Republican. My advice here is to wait until more reliable polling firms either confirm or show different results.

Other polling firms have confirmed Arizona, but not Texas nor Georgia. FYI.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/20/20 12:45 AM
Quote
My horse lost the race because you guys backed the wrong horse
I voted for Hillary. Backed her from start to finish. I don't care that much for Bernie. Point remains. If Democrats want to elect a Democrat they need to make that Democrat appealing enough that they get a majority of the votes.

When they don't, they always blame somebody else. Usually left leaning independents because we owe them our votes for some reason.

Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
My horse lost the race because you guys backed the wrong horse
I voted for Hillary. Backed her from start to finish. I don't care that much for Bernie. Point remains. If Democrats want to elect a Democrat they need to make that Democrat appealing enough that they get a majority of the votes.

When they don't, they always blame somebody else. Usually left leaning independents because we owe them our votes for some reason.
Good for you. I mistakenly thought you were a Bernie fan.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/22/20 05:59 PM
Feck Bernie. He's one of us but the movement doesn't depend on him.

I'm a Liz Bro. For the same reason I love Hilary. She's a social democrat at heart but has never had the word attached to her. The primaries showed us that we still don't have the numbers to win at the polls, but we have enough influence to affect policy. I kind of like playing a stealth game.

Joe and Liz are talking. I'm over the moon. That would be one of the stealthiest moves in gamingpolitics EVER!

A built in and popular progressive candidate for 2024.

Originally Posted by Greger
Feck Bernie. He's one of us but the movement doesn't depend on him.

I'm a Liz Bro. For the same reason I love Hilary. She's a social democrat at heart but has never had the word attached to her. The primaries showed us that we still don't have the numbers to win at the polls, but we have enough influence to affect policy. I kind of like playing a stealth game.

Joe and Liz are talking. I'm over the moon. That would be one of the stealthiest moves in gamingpolitics EVER!

A built in and popular progressive candidate for 2024.

What makes you think that Liz is popular? She couldn't even convince Democratic voters that she is good enough to win the nomination, let alone the rest of the country.

Her supporters tend to be an elitist minority.

My wife did vote for her in our state's primaries.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/23/20 03:48 AM
Liz isn't particularly popular now...but she led the race for a time. She will be a popular vice president because she knows how to get things done. I'm far too poor and uneducated ever to be considered part of any "elite". I'm more like white trash for Liz...y'know?

My people are matriarchic. And we take pinkie promises seriously.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/23/20 11:49 AM
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Originally Posted by Greger
Feck Bernie. He's one of us but the movement doesn't depend on him.

I'm a Liz Bro. For the same reason I love Hilary. She's a social democrat at heart but has never had the word attached to her. The primaries showed us that we still don't have the numbers to win at the polls, but we have enough influence to affect policy. I kind of like playing a stealth game.

Joe and Liz are talking. I'm over the moon. That would be one of the stealthiest moves in gamingpolitics EVER!

A built in and popular progressive candidate for 2024.

What makes you think that Liz is popular? She couldn't even convince Democratic voters that she is good enough to win the nomination, let alone the rest of the country.

Her supporters tend to be an elitist minority.

My wife did vote for her in our state's primaries.
I don't understand this fascination for having Warren as Biden's VP. She does nothing to help Biden get to 270. Biden is going to win the Northeast regardless who his VP is. It's true that most independents view her as being aloof and elitist and they don't much care for her. As a reminders, most independents back in 2016 also viewed Hillary as being aloof and coming across as elitist which resulted in their voting for Trump.

In an era where party affiliation is fairly even, when independents make up approximately 40% of the electorate, their view on the candidates becomes much more important than in the past. But most folks never vote on the VP candidate in a normal election. With Biden being 78, I think much more scrutiny will be given to whoever old Joe chooses.

I think the first rule in selecting the VP is to select one that does you no harm. If they can help, so much the better. Palin hurt McCain, Ryan didn't hurt or help Romney, Biden helped Obama in 2008. Quayle hurt G.H.W. Bush especially in 1992. Now most don't help or hurt, but a competent choice can help swing a state or two your way or guarantee a state stays with you.

I think Warren would hurt Biden a bit more than she would help him. Especially among independents. Her age when most folks will be looking for someone younger to fill in in case something happened to Biden along with her being hard to get to like. My opinion anyway.

Independents don't delve deep into politics or really study their choices. They go on more of a like or dislike opinion of the candidates. They're not political junkies. I'd say taking an SWAG that at least 10% of independents will determine their vote based on the personality of the candidates. I'll just finish saying that Warren doesn't have the personality that attracts independents. After all, many independents view the presidential race as nothing more than a beauty contest.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/23/20 02:48 PM
Ever wonder how much charisma has to do with winning the independent vote and the general election? I have. Obama had charisma, he was what I would call charming. He had the charisma all over McCain and Romney. Bill Clinton was another charismatic type. He also won twice against two very un-charismatic foes. Reagan was another, full of charisma and he won twice.

G.W. Bush didn't really have what I would classify as charisma. But he was more or less down homey, a down home guy. Gore was a statue and Kerry a stone. Jimmy Carter was more like G.W. a down home guy who won against a stoic Ford, but lost big time against Mr. Charisma, Reagan.

All the more charismatic types won the independent vote. Just something to think about, or not.
Originally Posted by perotista
Ever wonder how much charisma has to do with winning the independent vote and the general election? I have. Obama had charisma, he was what I would call charming. He had the charisma all over McCain and Romney. Bill Clinton was another charismatic type. He also won twice against two very un-charismatic foes. Reagan was another, full of charisma and he won twice.

G.W. Bush didn't really have what I would classify as charisma. But he was more or less down homey, a down home guy. Gore was a statue and Kerry a stone. Jimmy Carter was more like G.W. a down home guy who won against a stoic Ford, but lost big time against Mr. Charisma, Reagan.

All the more charismatic types won the independent vote. Just something to think about, or not.

That is interesting.
I'm thinking of Bernie Sanders = zero charisma. Looked like an angry and crazy old man.

Tammy Duckworth and Stacey Adams have charisma.
Oops: Seems Tara Reade's story is coming apart at the seams.

Tara Reade Loses Her Attorney As New Reporting Dents Her Story

Quote
It is also worth noting that Reade’s strongest corroborating witness at the time it was reported appeared to be her former neighbor Lynda LaCasse, who seemed to offer independent, near-contemporaneous corroboration of the full assault claim on the record in her conversations with Business Insider. Unfortunately, that piece failed to include in its initial round-up one key detail that was published alongside the article in an interview transcript that was behind a paywall: LaCasse only remembered her conversation with Reade after she was reminded of it during a phone call with Reade.

Meanwhile, the reporting on Reade’s overall credibility has had results beyond the question of what may have happened between her and Biden. CNN’s reporters, for instance, found that Antioch University denied Reade’s claims that she had received a bachelor of arts degree from the school and that she had been a visiting professor there.
...
On Thursday, the New York Times further reported that public defenders in California were seeking to challenge convictions in which Reade had been an expert witness based on the possible falsification of her credentials.


Apparently, she's left a trail of acquaintances who felt they had been conned by her, or bilked out of money.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/23/20 11:52 PM
Quote
That is interesting.
I'm thinking of Bernie Sanders = zero charisma. Looked like an angry and crazy old man.

Tammy Duckworth and Stacey Adams have charisma.

The one with zero charisma has millions of loyal and devoted followers and almost got himself nominated twice.

Angry crazy old man? Have you ever heard him speak?

Show me them other two looking more charismatic than this...

Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
That is interesting.
I'm thinking of Bernie Sanders = zero charisma. Looked like an angry and crazy old man.

Tammy Duckworth and Stacey Adams have charisma.

The one with zero charisma has millions of loyal and devoted followers and almost got himself nominated twice.

Angry crazy old man? Have you ever heard him speak?

Show me them other two looking more charismatic than this...


Thanks, but no, thanks. I have no intention of watching still another video clip featuring this angry, aloof, unlikable, non-charismatic two-trick pony (he used to be a one-trick pony, "Wall Street is evil" and now he is a two-trick one, adding "M4A - regardless of it being impossible to pass and to pay for") loser. Yes, I've had the displeasure of listening to this loser before. Thankfully, now he is totally irrelevant so I don't need to listen to this annoying loser any longer.

Millions of followers, maybe (which proves nothing; Trump also has millions of followers and I'd never vote for him, and McDonald's has millions of followers but I'd never eat there), but not enough to win a nomination in one party (at most 30% of one party, that is, 15% of America when you add the other half of the country).

Almost won twice? Not at all. He was soundly beaten twice. The first time he was beaten by a hugely disliked candidate, even though he was favored by the anti-vote from simply not being his opponent. Still, he lost by 3.7 million popular votes, to a candidate so bad that she managed to lose to Trump. What a loser, this Bernie Sanders! Couldn't even beat the worst candidate ever. The really charismatic one, Barack Obama, handily beat Hillary Clinton. Just about anybody running against Hillary Clinton in 2016 could have beaten her. Bernie Sanders? Couldn't even manage that.

The second time he got shellacked in a landslide, being cut to his actual size, no longer counting on the anti-vote given that this time his opponent isn't hugely disliked. At the end, the difference between him and his main opponent will be at least 5 million votes, likely more. As of now with still 21 contests to go, it sits already at 3.4 million, although the coronavirus has hindered the primaries.

If that's what you call almost winning, I don't know what else to tell you.

Almost winning is when you lose by 0.5%. Not when you lose by 12.1% like in 2016 (again, to the worst candidate ever), and likely at least 20% in 2020. That's more like losing in a rout.

If you feel that Bernie is charismatic, it's a matter of opinion. I don't think he is charismatic at all. Actually I can't stand him. And the millions who share my opinion are way more numerous than the millions who share yours. 85% of Americans don't care for Bernie Sanders (me included). 15% do.

That's not being popular, and that's not being charismatic.

The Bernie Sanders phenomenon was simply a cult of personality, with his followers idolizing him and not noticing his many shortcomings, just like Trump's cult of personality. The size of the phenomenon was artificially overblown in 2016, and was cut to size in 2020.

Bernie Sanders is the Trump of the Left: a vacuous populist with a cult. The difference is that while Trump is a winner, Bernie is a loser.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/24/20 04:16 AM
Quote
If that's what you call almost winning, I don't know what else to tell you.
When you come in second it's almost winning.

Your misconceptions about Sanders are truly stunning. But at least you admit your mind is closed on the subject.

Yet you believe, for one reason or another that I should vote for Biden even though I despise the slimey old bastard and everything he stands for? Tammy Ducktape is not a future president. Neither is the Georgia girl. Neither has anything like the chops to run in the primary and win the nomination. Warren led for a while and scared the hell out Biden before she got hung up on M4A. But I imagine she's a little too shrill and intense for you. Best to keep the candidates fairly submissive right? You don't want to elect someone who might do something after all.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
If that's what you call almost winning, I don't know what else to tell you.
When you come in second it's almost winning.

Your misconceptions about Sanders are truly stunning. But at least you admit your mind is closed on the subject.

Yet you believe, for one reason or another that I should vote for Biden even though I despise the slimey old bastard and everything he stands for? Tammy Ducktape is not a future president. Neither is the Georgia girl. Neither has anything like the chops to run in the primary and win the nomination. Warren led for a while and scared the hell out Biden before she got hung up on M4A. But I imagine she's a little too shrill and intense for you. Best to keep the candidates fairly submissive right? You don't want to elect someone who might do something after all.

What is stunning and full of misconceptions are your assumptions about me.

Not liking that loser called Bernie Sanders is not equal to anything you are pegging on me.

Oh, and by the way, coming in second is for losers. Winners come in first. And no, it's not almost winning when you come in second, but very far behind. Again, it's called losing. Bernie Sanders is a loser, a fact you can't deny.

Someone who could do something: that's not Bernie. Ineffective senator. Created a dozen bills in 16 years in the House and 14 years in the Senate, two of them to rename two post office locations. Has a bunch of pie-in-the-sky ideas that will never see the light of day. Is considered to be a pariah in the Senate, someone nobody likes to work with. The cult of personality that propelled him to this overblown and exaggerated fake importance (again, he only appeals to 15% of Americans and that's another fact; he got 30% of the vote from the Democratic and Democrat-leaning Independents in the Dem primaries; there are no Republican-leaning Independents and Republicans - the other half of the country - who would ever vote for him, so, your great man is supported by 15% of Americans and opposed by 85% - such a loser) has been cut to its real size in 2020, and from now on, Bernie will just sink into more and more irrelevance, a place that fits his ineffective record pretty well.

Cute, the play on Tammy Duckworth's name; someone you should respect; are you adopting Trump's strategy now, of detrimental nicknames? Bravo. You're belittling a true hero, who is just a hundred times more charismatic than that old angry man you like so much. Also, Stacey Abrams is more successful in everything she has done (education - Yale Law grad vs. Sander's B.A. - entrepreneurial skills, effectively won the Georgia governorship but had her victory negated by GOP fraud) than Bernie Sanders could even dream of being (and she is much younger than he is; wanna bet that her political career will be ten times more significant than Bernie's when it's all said and done?).

You think that Bernie Sanders is more presidential material than Stacey Abrams? What exactly has he done? 12 bills, two of them to rename two Post Offices? A bunch of "yeeee free stuff for everybody!" misguided populist ideas? Someone who will be 79 by November, with a weak heart, who wouldn't disclose his health status? (Rumors are that he has a very low ejection fraction after his cardiac event, which indicates a very short remaining life span).

Did you know that he is ranked the 4th bottom senator in terms of passing bills into law? Yep, a doer, indeed... more like an ineffective dreamer.

I never understood why an aloof, loser, out-of-touch with reality, ineffective senator from Vermont got propelled into being the poster child for the progressive movement... unless progressives just want to fail. Well, guess what, that poster child is being rejected by 85% of Americans. Talk about betting on the wrong horse...

And this, without ever being seriously attacked in campaign ads. He was never seriously attacked in 2016 because Hillary didn't want to alienate his followers (which of course ended up happening anyway) and Trump was delighted with him damaging the one viable candidate, so Trump was actually propping him up. In 2020, his campaign collapsed by the 4th day of primary contests (in just one contest, SC, Biden erased Bernie's initial advantage in the first 3, and had already 65K+ total of popular votes over Bernie, then shellacked him on the 5th contest day, Super Tuesday) so there was no real need to attack him.

I suspect that in a campaign that generated a barrage of attack ads poking at Bernie Sander's many vulnerabilities, his popularity would drop even lower than 15%.

The Bernie Sanders movement is a failed movement, that by the way, contributed to us having the disastrous current occupant of the Oval Office. And if all the whining Bernie or Bust types defect again, we will have another 4 years of Trump.

Am I angry at Bernie Sanders and his blind cult followers? You bet. I despise people who are short-sighted enough to shoot themselves in the foot, not realizing the threat that Trump represents to their progressive ideals.

You said it right: Trump has the Supreme Court in his pocket. Thanks to the Bernie or Bust crowd. Not to forget 250 other federal judges appointed by Trump; and remember, those are lifetime appointments. That's what the Bernie or Bust crowd brought upon themselves. For an entire generation, no progressive initiative will fail to be curtailed by the courts.

Again, you are entirely wrong in your assumptions about me. Yes, I want someone who can actually do something. That's exactly why I'm against the ineffective loser called Bernie Sanders.

And no, I don't love Biden, but he's what we got if we want to defeat the much worse Trump. That's why I'm paying attention to who Biden picks as veep.

And I don't dislike Warren. I was just highlighting the fact that she is not popular. She is seen by many as Hillary Clinton 2.0. I think if she is picked as veep, she will hurt the ticket more than help it. If Biden does it, it's a political mistake. Well, Biden is prone to making political mistakes, so maybe he will do it, opening the flank of the ticket to Trump's Pocahontas attacks, and alienating the independents (and not particularly seducing Bernie fans either, since Bernie and Warren got pretty acrimonious against each other, this election cycle - Bernie can't stop alienating even his closest friends).

Warren is an academic. I'm not sure how effective she would be in government. I see Tammy and Stacey as having less experience but more promise. Experience is over-rated anyway. Obama had very little experience with federal office, and Trump had none. They got elected anyway.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/24/20 12:34 PM
Like everything else political, I think whether or not one views a candidate, a person as being charismatic is a personal opinion. For my purpose it was pitting candidate against candidate. How one's charismatic personality can attract voters to him that otherwise may not have voted for him.

The top four according to Larry Sabato was FDR, JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton as having dynamic charismatic personalities. I'd have to add Obama to that list, while in my opinion, Obama had less charisma that those four. I was also talking about attracting voters from America as a whole, not just one's supporters.

Supporters of certain candidates are usually entranced by that candidate. But how that candidates fairs with those who aren't his avid supporters is where charisma comes into play, especially with independents, the non-affiliated voter.

I do think Sanders had more charisma than Biden, but we're talking about the Democratic primary voters. Less than a third of all voters nationwide. Sanders didn't have a chance to test those waters and to see if he could or couldn't attract the independent voter. He was tested only by Democrats for the most part although some independents did vote in the open primary states. The primaries are more about name recognition and political stances, ideology, party loyalist.

You haven't yet got into the battle for the less political, the less to non-partisan and non-affiliated voter. They haven't had a chance to weigh in yet.

There's no doubt in my mind that Biden isn't charismatic in the sense of a Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, JFK or even an Obama. But not being Trump may be enough. Hillary certainly wasn't, her personality wasn't the type to attract independents. Neither was Kerry or Gore, two statues. McCain didn't have it either nor Dole or G.H.W Bush. If you don't have it, you better hope you get matched up against someone with less charisma than you which happened in 1988, Bush vs. Dukakis, 1968 Nixon vs. Humphrey, 1976 Carter vs. Ford and so on.

Perhaps the most important thing is how a candidate and as president later on can connect with the people. Once again the best at this were the four Larry Sabato pointed out. FDR, JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton. then in fifth place, I'd put Obama.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/24/20 07:18 PM
Another interesting article.

"How the Trump Effect Could Lift Democratic Senate Candidates"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-effect-could-lift-democratic-152720830.html

I'd say if the election were held today, the Democrats pick up Arizona, Colorado and Maine, lose Alabama. Then there are the pure tossup's. All Republican held, Montana, Georgia's two seats, North Carolina and perhaps even Kentucky. If the election were held today, Biden would be an easy winner.

That's how I see the election stacked up today. But November is a long way off and things can change in a hurry.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/24/20 07:29 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
"How the Trump Effect Could Lift Democratic Senate Candidates"
Such effect as killing over 100,000 Americans through shear incompetence? Well duh...

rolleyes
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/24/20 07:31 PM


The virus is just now spreading through rural red state America - furthered by the rural idiots going to state capitals protesting the shut-down, hugging each other and high-fiviging each other maskless.


smile
Originally Posted by perotista
Like everything else political, I think whether or not one views a candidate, a person as being charismatic is a personal opinion. For my purpose it was pitting candidate against candidate. How one's charismatic personality can attract voters to him that otherwise may not have voted for him.

The top four according to Larry Sabato was FDR, JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton as having dynamic charismatic personalities. I'd have to add Obama to that list, while in my opinion, Obama had less charisma that those four. I was also talking about attracting voters from America as a whole, not just one's supporters.

Supporters of certain candidates are usually entranced by that candidate. But how that candidates fairs with those who aren't his avid supporters is where charisma comes into play, especially with independents, the non-affiliated voter.

I do think Sanders had more charisma than Biden, but we're talking about the Democratic primary voters. Less than a third of all voters nationwide. Sanders didn't have a chance to test those waters and to see if he could or couldn't attract the independent voter. He was tested only by Democrats for the most part although some independents did vote in the open primary states. The primaries are more about name recognition and political stances, ideology, party loyalist.

You haven't yet got into the battle for the less political, the less to non-partisan and non-affiliated voter. They haven't had a chance to weigh in yet.

There's no doubt in my mind that Biden isn't charismatic in the sense of a Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, JFK or even an Obama. But not being Trump may be enough. Hillary certainly wasn't, her personality wasn't the type to attract independents. Neither was Kerry or Gore, two statues. McCain didn't have it either nor Dole or G.H.W Bush. If you don't have it, you better hope you get matched up against someone with less charisma than you which happened in 1988, Bush vs. Dukakis, 1968 Nixon vs. Humphrey, 1976 Carter vs. Ford and so on.

Perhaps the most important thing is how a candidate and as president later on can connect with the people. Once again the best at this were the four Larry Sabato pointed out. FDR, JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton. then in fifth place, I'd put Obama.

Correct. Bernie Sanders never had the opportunity to go through the screening of the entire population of American voters, yes. But taking back what I said to Greger, that's because he's a loser. He lost two primaries, one by 3.7 million votes to one of the worst candidates ever (in terms of charisma and campaign strategy), and is losing this one already by 3.4 million votes with 21 more contests to go.

But if he had the opportunity to run for the hearts and minds of non-Democratic-leaning independents and Repubicans, I frankly doubt that he'd get many more people. If on the left side of the spectrum he already didn't have sufficient traction, who do you expect would vote for him from the right side of the spectrum (the folks who think that socialism is a foul word)?

No, Bernie Sanders only excited a niche of ultra-progressive people in the Democratic side of the spectrum. Not even the more moderate Democrats like him, let alone the right-leaning voters.

But the thing is, sure, he didn't get to test his chances in a general presidential election (being the loser that he is), but we shouldn't even be talking about these chances any longer. Bernie Sanders won't run a third time in 2024. I doubt he'll even be alive by them, if the rumors about his cardiac ejection fraction are true.

Bernie Sanders right now is a has-been, and what was there to start with wasn't much.

History will look back at Bernie Sanders as a small blimp - an ineffective house representative and senator who never amounted to much while in federal office, and unsuccessfully ran twice for the presidential nomination, being soundly defeated both times.

The one thing Bernie Sanders will be remembered for, is that many of his followers helped Trump win the 2016 Electoral College, given that the number of Bernie or Bust defectors in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin far exceeded Trump's narrow margin of victory in those states, as proven by a famous Newsweek Magazine article that has circulated widely in Politics forums.

Future History book entry on Bernie Sanders:

"Rather obscure House Representative and Senator from Vermont, who was in the bottom 4 of ineffective senators with a minimum number of bills passed, and unsuccessfully ran twice for the Democratic presidential nomination (despite being an independent), when he lost to Hillary Clinton by 3.7 million votes in 2016, and to Joseph Biden by 5.5 million votes in 2020. Bernie Sanders, a failed progressive with vacuous populist ideas that were soundly rejected at the time by 85% of the American public, had as only claim to fame, the fact that his Bernie or Bust movement was one of the various important factors that ensured Donald J. Trump's Electoral College victory in 2016, which ultimately determined the decline of Democracy and the Rule of Law in America, and the subsequent prolonged economic downturn (stemming from Trump's mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA) and loss of American influence and competitiveness around the world. Bernie Sanders was briefly the banner holder for the progressive movement in America, but his disastrous losses set back that movement for several years, as his aiding Trump resulted in a large number of conservative judicial nominations to federal courts and the Supreme Court, which hindered the progressive ideals for several decades. Shortly after the end of the 2020 campaign, Bernie Sanders died of congestive heart failure. In summary, he didn't accomplish much in his long political career, except for sinking the progressive movement, and helping Donald J. Trump get elected, which triggered the end of the so-called American empire."

That's about it. It summarizes very well the failed career of the loser known ad Bernie Sanders, and the damage that he inflicted upon his progressive followers and upon the rest of the nation and the world, by helping Trump get elected.
Originally Posted by pdx rick
The virus is just now spreading through rural red state America - furthered by the rural idiots going to state capitals protesting the shut-down, hugging each other and high-fiviging each other maskless.


smile

Hopefully Darwin Law will thin the herd of the stupid Trump supporters, contributing to his electoral loss in November.

[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/24/20 11:45 PM
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Bernie Sanders right now is a has-been, and what was there to start with wasn't much.

History will look back at Bernie Sanders as a small blimp - an ineffective house representative and senator who never amounted to much while in federal office, and unsuccessfully ran twice for the presidential nomination, being soundly defeated both times.
Geez, GNT, your emotional and irrational spleen against Bernie really thins your credibility as an objective critic. Granted, Sanders has not successfully sponsored much in the way of straight up bills, but he is known as the "King of Amendments" and has seriously impacted the direction of the left. Here's a good article on that:
https://www.quora.com/What-are-Bernie-Sanders-Senatorial-accomplishments
Quote
Bernie’s accomplishments
(The actions I consider to be “legislative accomplishments” are shown in bold face type.)

Elected by the state of Vermont 8 times to serve in the House of Representatives.
The longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history.
Is by far the member of Congress best regarded by his constituents.
He was dubbed the “amendment king” in the House of Representatives for passing more amendments than any other member of Congress.
Ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee.
Former student organizer for the Congress of Racial Equality (CORE) and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC).
Led the first ever civil rights sit-in in Chicago history to protest segregated housing.
In 1963, Bernie Sanders participated in MLK’s Civil Rights March. One of only 2 sitting US Senators to have heard MLK’s “I have a Dream Speech” in person in the march on Washington, DC.
Former professor of political science at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and at Hamilton College.
Former mayor of Burlington, VT. In a stunning upset in 1981, Sanders won the mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont’s largest city. He shocked the city’s political establishment by defeating a six-term, local machine mayor. Burlington is now reported to be one of the most livable cities in the nation.
Co-founded the Congressional Progressive Caucus and chaired the group for its first 8 years.
(BTW the CPC has for each of the last 7 budget years authored and published a Federal Budget proposal that would have created more jobs and reduced the National Debt significantly faster than the proposals of either political party or the Executive Branch. ‘The People’s Budget’: Analysis of the Congressional Progressive Caucus budget for fiscal year 2018)
Both the NAACP and the NHLA (National Hispanic Leadership Agenda) have given Sanders 100% voting scores during his tenure in the Senate. Earns a D- from the NRA.
1984: Mayor Sanders established the Burlington Community Land Trust, the first municipal housing land-trust in the country for affordable housing. The project becomes a model emulated throughout the world. It later wins an award from Jack Kemp-led HUD.
1991: one of a handful in Congress to vote against authorizing US military force in Iraq. “I have a real fear that the region is not going to be more peaceful or more stable after the war,” he said at the time.
1992: Congress passes Sanders’ first signed piece of legislation to create the National Program of Cancer Registries. A Reader’s Digest article calls the law “the cancer weapon America needs most.” All 50 states now run registries to help cancer researchers gain important insights.
November 1993: Sanders votes against the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement. Returning from a tour of factories in Mexico, Sanders says: “If NAFTA passes, corporate profits will soar because it will be even easier than now for American companies to flee to Mexico and hire workers there for starvation wages.”
July 1996: Sanders is one of only 67 (out of 435, 15%) votes against the discriminatory Defense of Marriage Act, which denied federal benefits to same-sex couples legally married. Sanders urged the Supreme Court to throw out the law, which it did in a landmark 2013 ruling – some 17 years later.
July 1999: Standing up against the major pharmaceutical companies, Sanders becomes the first member of Congress to personally take seniors across the border to Canada to buy lower-cost prescription drugs. The congressman continues his bus trips to Canada with a group of breast cancer patients the following April. These brave women are able to purchase their medications in Canada for almost one-tenth the price charged in the States.
August 1999: An overflow crowd of Vermonters packs a St. Michael’s College town hall meeting hosted by Sanders to protest an IBM plan to cut older workers’ pensions by as much as 50 percent. CBS Evening News with Dan Rather and The New York Times cover the event. After IBM enacts the plan, Sanders works to reverse the cuts, passing a pair of amendments to prohibit the federal government from acting to overturn a federal district court decision that ruled that IBM’s plan violated pension age discrimination laws. Thanks to Sanders’ efforts, IBM agreed to a $320 million legal settlement with some 130,000 IBM workers and retirees.
November 1999: About 10 years before the 2008 Wall Street crash spins the world economy into a massive recession, Sanders votes “no” on a bill to undo decades of financial regulations enacted after the Great Depression. “This legislation,” he predicts at the time, “will lead to fewer banks and financial service providers, increased charges and fees for individual consumers and small businesses, diminished credit for rural America and taxpayer exposure to potential losses should a financial conglomerate fail. It will lead to more mega-mergers, a small number of corporations dominating the financial service industry and further concentration of power in our country.” The House passed the bill 362-57 over Sanders’ objection.
October 2001: Sanders votes against the USA Patriot Act. “All of us want to protect the American people from terrorist attacks, but in a way that does not undermine basic freedoms,” Sanders says at the time. He subsequently votes against reauthorizing the law in 2006 and 2011.
October 2002: Sanders votes against the Bush-Cheney war in Iraq. He warns at the time that an invasion could “result in anti-Americanism, instability and more terrorism.” Hillary Clinton votes in favor of it.
November 2006: Sanders defeats Vermont’s richest man, Rich Tarrant, to be elected to the U.S. Senate. Sanders, running as an Independent, is endorsed by the Vermont Democratic Party and supported by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
December 2007: Sanders’ authored energy efficiency and conservation grant program passes into law. He later secures $3.2 billion in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 for the grant program.
September 2008: Thanks to Sanders’ efforts, funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program funding doubles, helping millions of low-income Americans heat their homes in winter.
February 2009: Sanders works with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley to pass an amendment to an economic recovery bill preventing Wall Street banks that take taxpayer bailouts from replacing laid-off U.S. workers with exploited and poorly-paid foreign workers.
December 2009: Sanders passes language in the Affordable Care Act to allow states to apply for waivers to implement pilot health care systems by 2017. The legislation allows states to adopt more comprehensive systems to cover more people at lower costs.
March 2010: President Barack Obama signs into law the Affordable Care Act with a major Sanders provision to expand federally qualified community health centers. Sanders secures $12.5 billion in funding for the program which now serves more than 25 million Americans. Another $1.5 billion from a Sanders provision went to the National Health Service Corps for scholarships and loan repayment for doctors and nurses who practice in under-served communities.
July 2010: Sanders works with Republican Congressman Ron Paul in the House to pass a measure as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill to audit the Federal Reserve, revealing how the independent agency gave $16 trillion in near zero-interest loans to big banks and businesses after the 2008 economic collapse.
March 2013: Sanders, now chairman of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, and backed by seniors, women, veterans, labor unions and disabled Americans, leads a successful effort to stop a “chained-CPI” proposal supported by Congressional Republicans and the Administration to cut Social Security and disabled veterans’ benefits.
April 2013: Sanders introduces legislation to break up major Wall Street banks so large that the collapse of one could send the overall economy into a downward spiral.
August 2014: A bipartisan $16.5 billion veterans bill written by Sen. Sanders, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Jeff Miller is signed into law by President Barack Obama. The measure includes $5 billion for the VA to hire more doctors and health professionals to meet growing demand for care.
January 2015: Sanders takes over as ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, using the platform to fight for his economic agenda for the American middle class.
January 2015: Sanders votes against the Keystone XL pipeline, which would allow multinational corporation TransCanada to transport dirty tar sands oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico.
March 2015: Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) introduced legislation to expand benefits and strengthen the retirement program for generations to come. The Social Security Expansion Act was filed on the same day Sanders and other senators received the petitions signed by 2 million Americans, gathered by the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
September 2015: Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) and Rep. Bobby L. Rush (D-Ill.) today introduced bills to ban private prisons [which have been 3 to 4 times as expensive with much higher rates of prisoner abuse, guard injury than government run prisons], reinstate the federal parole system and eliminate quotas for the number of immigrants held in detention.
January 2016: Sanders Places Hold on FDA Nominee Dr. Robert Califf because of his close ties to the pharmaceutical industry and lack of commitment to lowering drug prices. There is no reason to believe that he would make the FDA work for ordinary Americans, rather than just the CEOs of pharmaceutical companies.

———————

ADDENDUM: Several people have asked about Senator Sanders accomplishments since 2016. Which is a tough question, because the US Senate has done almost no legislating since 2016 of any sort. Senator Sanders introduced 397 bills (sponsored or cosponsored) in the current Congress, but like so many others, his bills are sitting on the Majority Leaders’ desk, not being acted upon.

Bernard Sanders Legislation in Process 115th and 116th Congresses.

I believe that the 457 bills he introduced during the 115th Congress all lapsed when that Congress ended.
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Future History book entry on Bernie Sanders

If that book was written by Rush Limbaugh, maybe.
Really, that's a lotta hyperbole.
And the thing you seem to be leaving out in your rather bitter sendup is the fact, the indisputable fact, that Sanders was perhaps the only really REALLY honest candidate to come down the pike in decades.

Sorry GNT but I count his mistakes mostly as branding, packaging, presentation and an inability to make a somewhat bigger tent.
Of course, that latter was due to his self-inflicted branding problems.

But deep down, like him or despise him, Sanders is pretty much real, sincere, and honest.
And that counts for a lot.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 12:15 AM
Sanders in my opinion is/was too far left to attract as you put it, moderate democrats and even more moderate independents who for the most part fall somewhere in-between the ideologies of today's Republican and Democratic Parties.

I would have never voted for him, he's too extreme for me. But having said that, Sanders may just be ahead of his time. Much like Goldwater back in 1964 was way too far right for most Americans, he was considered an extremist from the right. Goldwater led to a conservative movement that led to the election of Reagan and the movement of the country to the right. Sanders might be a few years ahead of his time like Goldwater was. Who knows, 10-15 years from now, Sanders political philosophy might be considered main stream as conservatism under Reagan and the two Bush's were considerate mainstream by a majority of Americans.

Even Bill Clinton more or less govern much like a moderate conservative, not a liberal and certainly not as a progressive. New movements take time to catch on, for people to come around to not viewing a new movement as being extreme.

After FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, JFK with LBJ picking up the liberal mantra, most Americans weren't ready to switch to or take another path, road to the right as far as Goldwater wanted to take the country. I don't think most Americans are ready for Sanders and his ideas to push the country far to the left after Reagan, Bill Clinton, the two Bush's. Obama tried in his first two years and most Americans said stop right there with a whopping 63 seat loss in the House and an 8 seat loss in the senate in 2010. But who knows, come 2028 or 2032, that sharp left turn onto a progressive Sanders path may be just what the country is ready for.
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Bernie Sanders right now is a has-been, and what was there to start with wasn't much.

History will look back at Bernie Sanders as a small blimp - an ineffective house representative and senator who never amounted to much while in federal office, and unsuccessfully ran twice for the presidential nomination, being soundly defeated both times.
Geez, GNT, your emotional and irrational spleen against Bernie really thins your credibility as an objective critic. Granted, Sanders has not successfully sponsored much in the way of straight up bills, but he is known as the "King of Amendments" and has seriously impacted the direction of the left. Here's a good article on that:
https://www.quora.com/What-are-Bernie-Sanders-Senatorial-accomplishments
Quote
Bernie’s accomplishments
(The actions I consider to be “legislative accomplishments” are shown in bold face type.)

Elected by the state of Vermont 8 times to serve in the House of Representatives.
The longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history.
Is by far the member of Congress best regarded by his constituents.
He was dubbed the “amendment king” in the House of Representatives for passing more amendments than any other member of Congress.
Ranking member on the Senate Budget Committee.
Former student organizer for the Congress of Racial Equality (CORE) and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC).
Led the first ever civil rights sit-in in Chicago history to protest segregated housing.
In 1963, Bernie Sanders participated in MLK’s Civil Rights March. One of only 2 sitting US Senators to have heard MLK’s “I have a Dream Speech” in person in the march on Washington, DC.
Former professor of political science at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and at Hamilton College.
Former mayor of Burlington, VT. In a stunning upset in 1981, Sanders won the mayoral race in Burlington, Vermont’s largest city. He shocked the city’s political establishment by defeating a six-term, local machine mayor. Burlington is now reported to be one of the most livable cities in the nation.
Co-founded the Congressional Progressive Caucus and chaired the group for its first 8 years.
(BTW the CPC has for each of the last 7 budget years authored and published a Federal Budget proposal that would have created more jobs and reduced the National Debt significantly faster than the proposals of either political party or the Executive Branch. ‘The People’s Budget’: Analysis of the Congressional Progressive Caucus budget for fiscal year 2018)
Both the NAACP and the NHLA (National Hispanic Leadership Agenda) have given Sanders 100% voting scores during his tenure in the Senate. Earns a D- from the NRA.
1984: Mayor Sanders established the Burlington Community Land Trust, the first municipal housing land-trust in the country for affordable housing. The project becomes a model emulated throughout the world. It later wins an award from Jack Kemp-led HUD.
1991: one of a handful in Congress to vote against authorizing US military force in Iraq. “I have a real fear that the region is not going to be more peaceful or more stable after the war,” he said at the time.
1992: Congress passes Sanders’ first signed piece of legislation to create the National Program of Cancer Registries. A Reader’s Digest article calls the law “the cancer weapon America needs most.” All 50 states now run registries to help cancer researchers gain important insights.
November 1993: Sanders votes against the Clinton-era North American Free Trade Agreement. Returning from a tour of factories in Mexico, Sanders says: “If NAFTA passes, corporate profits will soar because it will be even easier than now for American companies to flee to Mexico and hire workers there for starvation wages.”
July 1996: Sanders is one of only 67 (out of 435, 15%) votes against the discriminatory Defense of Marriage Act, which denied federal benefits to same-sex couples legally married. Sanders urged the Supreme Court to throw out the law, which it did in a landmark 2013 ruling – some 17 years later.
July 1999: Standing up against the major pharmaceutical companies, Sanders becomes the first member of Congress to personally take seniors across the border to Canada to buy lower-cost prescription drugs. The congressman continues his bus trips to Canada with a group of breast cancer patients the following April. These brave women are able to purchase their medications in Canada for almost one-tenth the price charged in the States.
August 1999: An overflow crowd of Vermonters packs a St. Michael’s College town hall meeting hosted by Sanders to protest an IBM plan to cut older workers’ pensions by as much as 50 percent. CBS Evening News with Dan Rather and The New York Times cover the event. After IBM enacts the plan, Sanders works to reverse the cuts, passing a pair of amendments to prohibit the federal government from acting to overturn a federal district court decision that ruled that IBM’s plan violated pension age discrimination laws. Thanks to Sanders’ efforts, IBM agreed to a $320 million legal settlement with some 130,000 IBM workers and retirees.
November 1999: About 10 years before the 2008 Wall Street crash spins the world economy into a massive recession, Sanders votes “no” on a bill to undo decades of financial regulations enacted after the Great Depression. “This legislation,” he predicts at the time, “will lead to fewer banks and financial service providers, increased charges and fees for individual consumers and small businesses, diminished credit for rural America and taxpayer exposure to potential losses should a financial conglomerate fail. It will lead to more mega-mergers, a small number of corporations dominating the financial service industry and further concentration of power in our country.” The House passed the bill 362-57 over Sanders’ objection.
October 2001: Sanders votes against the USA Patriot Act. “All of us want to protect the American people from terrorist attacks, but in a way that does not undermine basic freedoms,” Sanders says at the time. He subsequently votes against reauthorizing the law in 2006 and 2011.
October 2002: Sanders votes against the Bush-Cheney war in Iraq. He warns at the time that an invasion could “result in anti-Americanism, instability and more terrorism.” Hillary Clinton votes in favor of it.
November 2006: Sanders defeats Vermont’s richest man, Rich Tarrant, to be elected to the U.S. Senate. Sanders, running as an Independent, is endorsed by the Vermont Democratic Party and supported by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
December 2007: Sanders’ authored energy efficiency and conservation grant program passes into law. He later secures $3.2 billion in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 for the grant program.
September 2008: Thanks to Sanders’ efforts, funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program funding doubles, helping millions of low-income Americans heat their homes in winter.
February 2009: Sanders works with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley to pass an amendment to an economic recovery bill preventing Wall Street banks that take taxpayer bailouts from replacing laid-off U.S. workers with exploited and poorly-paid foreign workers.
December 2009: Sanders passes language in the Affordable Care Act to allow states to apply for waivers to implement pilot health care systems by 2017. The legislation allows states to adopt more comprehensive systems to cover more people at lower costs.
March 2010: President Barack Obama signs into law the Affordable Care Act with a major Sanders provision to expand federally qualified community health centers. Sanders secures $12.5 billion in funding for the program which now serves more than 25 million Americans. Another $1.5 billion from a Sanders provision went to the National Health Service Corps for scholarships and loan repayment for doctors and nurses who practice in under-served communities.
July 2010: Sanders works with Republican Congressman Ron Paul in the House to pass a measure as part of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill to audit the Federal Reserve, revealing how the independent agency gave $16 trillion in near zero-interest loans to big banks and businesses after the 2008 economic collapse.
March 2013: Sanders, now chairman of the Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee, and backed by seniors, women, veterans, labor unions and disabled Americans, leads a successful effort to stop a “chained-CPI” proposal supported by Congressional Republicans and the Administration to cut Social Security and disabled veterans’ benefits.
April 2013: Sanders introduces legislation to break up major Wall Street banks so large that the collapse of one could send the overall economy into a downward spiral.
August 2014: A bipartisan $16.5 billion veterans bill written by Sen. Sanders, Sen. John McCain and Rep. Jeff Miller is signed into law by President Barack Obama. The measure includes $5 billion for the VA to hire more doctors and health professionals to meet growing demand for care.
January 2015: Sanders takes over as ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee, using the platform to fight for his economic agenda for the American middle class.
January 2015: Sanders votes against the Keystone XL pipeline, which would allow multinational corporation TransCanada to transport dirty tar sands oil from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico.
March 2015: Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) introduced legislation to expand benefits and strengthen the retirement program for generations to come. The Social Security Expansion Act was filed on the same day Sanders and other senators received the petitions signed by 2 million Americans, gathered by the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
September 2015: Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.), Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.) and Rep. Bobby L. Rush (D-Ill.) today introduced bills to ban private prisons [which have been 3 to 4 times as expensive with much higher rates of prisoner abuse, guard injury than government run prisons], reinstate the federal parole system and eliminate quotas for the number of immigrants held in detention.
January 2016: Sanders Places Hold on FDA Nominee Dr. Robert Califf because of his close ties to the pharmaceutical industry and lack of commitment to lowering drug prices. There is no reason to believe that he would make the FDA work for ordinary Americans, rather than just the CEOs of pharmaceutical companies.

———————

ADDENDUM: Several people have asked about Senator Sanders accomplishments since 2016. Which is a tough question, because the US Senate has done almost no legislating since 2016 of any sort. Senator Sanders introduced 397 bills (sponsored or cosponsored) in the current Congress, but like so many others, his bills are sitting on the Majority Leaders’ desk, not being acted upon.

Bernard Sanders Legislation in Process 115th and 116th Congresses.

I believe that the 457 bills he introduced during the 115th Congress all lapsed when that Congress ended.

Amendments, big deal. Lots of senators make amendments. His lack of initiative in authoring original legislation is telling.

What's with the personal attacks today?

"your emotional and irrational"...

So, do we want this to be a sounding board? Or will we personally attack people who differ? What is going on here???
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Future History book entry on Bernie Sanders

If that book was written by Rush Limbaugh, maybe.
Really, that's a lotta hyperbole.
And the thing you seem to be leaving out in your rather bitter sendup is the fact, the indisputable fact, that Sanders was perhaps the only really REALLY honest candidate to come down the pike in decades.

Sorry GNT but I count his mistakes mostly as branding, packaging, presentation and an inability to make a somewhat bigger tent.
Of course, that latter was due to his self-inflicted branding problems.

But deep down, like him or despise him, Sanders is pretty much real, sincere, and honest.
And that counts for a lot.

Yeah, he is honest. Have I said otherwise? The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.

I see him as honest but hopelessly naive and misguided, and I think he did enormous harm to America, by damaging the only viable candidate that could have stopped Trump. I won't ever forgive him for it.
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
I see him as honest but hopelessly naive and misguided, and I think he did enormous harm to America, by damaging the only viable candidate that could have stopped Trump. I won't ever forgive him for it.

Now I see why you're so pissed at Sanders.
I honestly think Hillz is the reason we got Trump.
She may be an excellent policy wonk but as candidates go, she was horrible, and not just in 2016, she was horrible the first time she tried in 2008.

She's just a terrible candidate, unlikable...even though I even think she could have done a decent job. But people have to like candidates to vote for them, and a lot of people simply refused to vote, or vote for her.

A pocket of Bros refused, too...but a majority of Bernie people did vote for her under protest...just not enough of them.

I don't blame Sanders for us getting Trump.
I blame Democrats for not voting, or for not voting because they thought we had it in the bag, or not voting because they didn't like Hillz (I even voted for her despite not liking her much) or for voting for Trump out of spite.
Originally Posted by logtroll
Geez, GNT, your emotional and irrational spleen against Bernie really thins your credibility as an objective critic.

Is "spleen" referring to the post or to the poster?
Boy howdy folks, be nice to each other.
Originally Posted by Greger
"your emotional and irrational"...

I agree, you're emotional and irrational. I'm okay with that. I expect it from Democrats. But once you take a hard right turn like that, I just lump you with the republicans. It's not an attack on you, it's it's an ideological divide that can't be breached.

Come on guys, what is this?
Can we all just...try to get along?

[Linked Image from negromanosphere.com]

Originally Posted by Greger
"your emotional and irrational"...

I agree, you're emotional and irrational. I'm okay with that. I expect it from Democrats. But once you take a hard right turn like that, I just lump you with the republicans. It's not an attack on you, it's it's an ideological divide that can't be breached.

Great, the personal attacks continue. Do notice that I've NEVER issued one.

And by the way, I'm not a Democrat. I'm an Independent, and I actually voted for Sanders in my state's primaries, believe it or not, although I profoundly dislike him (at the time I thought he was best positioned to beat Trump so I pinched my nose and voted for him; later I saw that my evaluation at the time was a mistake).

Quote
It's not an attack on you

Yeah, right, it's not an attack on me when you say that I'm irrational and emotional... right.

Tell that to all the women who show a little pizzazz and assertiveness and are called emotional and irrational... it's one of the oldest forms of personal attacks. Who do you think you are fooling???

And me, lumped with Republicans??? You clearly don't know me.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 01:21 AM
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
I see him as honest but hopelessly naive and misguided, and I think he did enormous harm to America, by damaging the only viable candidate that could have stopped Trump. I won't ever forgive him for it.

Now I see why you're so pissed at Sanders.
I honestly think Hillz is the reason we got Trump.
She may be an excellent policy wonk but as candidates go, she was horrible, and not just in 2016, she was horrible the first time she tried in 2008.

She's just a terrible candidate, unlikable...even though I even think she could have done a decent job. But people have to like candidates to vote for them, and a lot of people simply refused to vote, or vote for her.

A pocket of Bros refused, too...but a majority of Bernie people did vote for her under protest...just not enough of them.

I don't blame Sanders for us getting Trump.
I blame Democrats for not voting, or for not voting because they thought we had it in the bag, or not voting because they didn't like Hillz (I even voted for her despite not liking her much) or for voting for Trump out of spite.
The numbers back you up. Hillary won the Democratic base vote 89-8 over Trump, but Sanders supporters did back Hillary, but by a 75-12 margin over Trump with 13% voting third party. Against both Trump and Clinton. Who knows how many stayed home, no exit poll will ever show you that.

Also in Nov 2016 the Democrats had a 6 point edge in party affiliation, but only a 3 point advantage in those who went to the polls and voted. Besides being lazy during the campaign season, letting Trump both out work her and out campaign her, she did have a very inept campaign strategy and was very unattractive to the independent, non-affiliated voter. 70% of all independents had a negative view of Hillary vs. 57% negative for Trump. Hence you had 12% of independents, swing voters vote against both major party candidates while the rest went for Trump.

As an aside, I believe if Sanders instead of Hillary was the nominee back in 2016, he would have won. No way to prove that, but just a gut feeling. Sanders was energetic, Hillary was Ho hum, Sanders also had much more charisma than Hillary who I viewed as a wet mop on the campaign trail, her and her fake smile is about all I remember of her campaign.

She might have indeed made a good president, but first you must win the general election. I always thought McCain would have been an excellent president, Bob Dole also. But like Hillary, both lacked that key ingredient, charisma and charm. Dole up against Mr. charisma Bill Clinton and McCain up against Mr. Charisma Jr. Both lost the independent vote and the election.

Usually, whoever wins independents, the swing voters wins the election. Off the top of my head, going back to Eisenhower, I can remember only one election where a candidate lost the independent vote and still won the election. 1976, Carter over Ford. That was a very close election. Ford won the independent vote, but democrats outnumbered Republicans back then by 15 points. 43-28 among those who actually voted. Independents made up but 23% of the electorate back then. Not the 40% they make up today.
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
I see him as honest but hopelessly naive and misguided, and I think he did enormous harm to America, by damaging the only viable candidate that could have stopped Trump. I won't ever forgive him for it.

Now I see why you're so pissed at Sanders.
I honestly think Hillz is the reason we got Trump.
She may be an excellent policy wonk but as candidates go, she was horrible, and not just in 2016, she was horrible the first time she tried in 2008.

She's just a terrible candidate, unlikable...even though I even think she could have done a decent job. But people have to like candidates to vote for them, and a lot of people simply refused to vote, or vote for her.

A pocket of Bros refused, too...but a majority of Bernie people did vote for her under protest...just not enough of them.

I don't blame Sanders for us getting Trump.
I blame Democrats for not voting, or for not voting because they thought we had it in the bag, or not voting because they didn't like Hillz (I even voted for her despite not liking her much) or for voting for Trump out of spite.

I don't dispute that Hillary was the main reason for Trump. I voted for Obama against her in the 2008 primaries, and never particularly liked her.

But I've explained this over and over elsewhere: given the razor-thin margin of Trump's victory, ANY one of the multiple factors that miraculously aligned for him in 2016 would have resulted in his loss and Hillary's victory.

Hillary's incompetence as a campaigner... her multiple unforced errors (I could go on and on about those and list them; not worth doing it now), Comey's letter, Hillary's idiotic campaign manager, Vladimir Putin, sexism, xenophobia, white supremacists, blue collar worker disillusionment, the DNC, and so on and so forth.

But given that any ONE factor would have defeated Trump, yes, Bernie's campaign and Bernie or Bust idiots ALSO played an essential role, sine qua non.

My analogy is the one with people indicted for conspiracy to commit murder, all of them doing it for the same common goal.

One buys the gun. The second one buys the ammunition. The third one contacts and hires the hit man. The fourth one pays the hit man. The fifth one takes the gun and the ammunition to the hit man. The sixth one woos the victim into a back alley. Then the seventh one, the hit man, pulls the trigger and kills the victim.

All seven are guilty. Sure, the hit man who pulled the trigger is guiltier (that's Hillary Clinton in this analogy, the one must responsible for her own loss).

BUT EVERY ONE OF THE OTHER SIX ARE STILL CHARGED WITH CONSPIRACY TO COMMIT MURDER AND THEY DON'T GET A PASS BECAUSE THE HIT MAN WAS MORE GUILTY.

Every single one of them, the murder wouldn't have happened without their part of the action.

So, Bernie or Bust types were just as responsible for Trump's win as any of the other multiple factors except for Hillary's incompetence.

Hillary is the guiltiest one. All the others are also guilty. So, yes, Bernie or Bust types did put Trump in office, and I can't forgive them for it (just lie I can't forgive Comey, Vladimir Putin, Hillary herself, etc).

ALL of them are guilty of the president we have today.
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by logtroll
Geez, GNT, your emotional and irrational spleen against Bernie really thins your credibility as an objective critic.

Is "spleen" referring to the post or to the poster?
Boy howdy folks, be nice to each other.

Well, you know, Greger did clarify it. It's referring to the poster.

Greger: "I agree, you're emotional and irrational."

What he said to me:

YOU. ARE. EMOTIONAL. AND. IRRATIONAL.

If this isn't a personal attack, I don't know what else is.

I must say, I'm disappointed. I thought this place was different.
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
I see him as honest but hopelessly naive and misguided, and I think he did enormous harm to America, by damaging the only viable candidate that could have stopped Trump. I won't ever forgive him for it.

Now I see why you're so pissed at Sanders.
I honestly think Hillz is the reason we got Trump.
She may be an excellent policy wonk but as candidates go, she was horrible, and not just in 2016, she was horrible the first time she tried in 2008.

She's just a terrible candidate, unlikable...even though I even think she could have done a decent job. But people have to like candidates to vote for them, and a lot of people simply refused to vote, or vote for her.

A pocket of Bros refused, too...but a majority of Bernie people did vote for her under protest...just not enough of them.

I don't blame Sanders for us getting Trump.
I blame Democrats for not voting, or for not voting because they thought we had it in the bag, or not voting because they didn't like Hillz (I even voted for her despite not liking her much) or for voting for Trump out of spite.
The numbers back you up. Hillary won the Democratic base vote 89-8 over Trump, but Sanders supporters did back Hillary, but by a 75-12 margin over Trump with 13% voting third party. Against both Trump and Clinton. Who knows how many stayed home, no exit poll will ever show you that.

Also in Nov 2016 the Democrats had a 6 point edge in party affiliation, but only a 3 point advantage in those who went to the polls and voted. Besides being lazy during the campaign season, letting Trump both out work her and out campaign her, she did have a very inept campaign strategy and was very unattractive to the independent, non-affiliated voter. 70% of all independents had a negative view of Hillary vs. 57% negative for Trump. Hence you had 12% of independents, swing voters vote against both major party candidates while the rest went for Trump.

As an aside, I believe if Sanders instead of Hillary was the nominee back in 2016, he would have won. No way to prove that, but just a gut feeling. Sanders was energetic, Hillary was Ho hum, Sanders also had much more charisma than Hillary who I viewed as a wet mop on the campaign trail, her and her fake smile is about all I remember of her campaign.

She might have indeed made a good president, but first you must win the general election. I always thought McCain would have been an excellent president, Bob Dole also. But like Hillary, both lacked that key ingredient, charisma and charm. Dole up against Mr. charisma Bill Clinton and McCain up against Mr. Charisma Jr. Both lost the independent vote and the election.

Usually, whoever wins independents, the swing voters wins the election. Off the top of my head, going back to Eisenhower, I can remember only one election where a candidate lost the independent vote and still won the election. 1976, Carter over Ford. That was a very close election. Ford won the independent vote, but democrats outnumbered Republicans back then by 15 points. 43-28 among those who actually voted. Independents made up but 23% of the electorate back then. Not the 40% they make up today.

No, the numbers support MY position. I couldn't care less about what Hillary fans did in 2008. I wasn't one of them. I voted for Obama. What they did was of no consequence, since Obama won anyway.

But from your own numbers (and I assume they came from the famous Newsweek article, as they match what is there), 12% + 13% = 25%, WAY more, way way way way more than the razor-thin margin by which Trump won the three essential states that gave him his Electoral College victory.

Yep, the Bernie or Bust folks elected Donald Trump. It's as simple as that.

And Comey. And Putin. And Hillary herself, etc.

But without those 25% of defecting Bernie or Bust misguided voters (who shot themselves in the foot by allowing lifetime 2 SCOTUS justices and 250 federal judges be nominated by Trump, which will doom all progressive ideals for a generation), Trump wouldn't be president today.
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by logtroll
Geez, GNT, your emotional and irrational spleen against Bernie really thins your credibility as an objective critic.

Is "spleen" referring to the post or to the poster?
Boy howdy folks, be nice to each other.

Well, you know, Greger did clarify it. It's referring to the poster.

Greger: "I agree, you're emotional and irrational."

What he said to me:

YOU. ARE. EMOTIONAL. AND. IRRATIONAL.

If this isn't a personal attack, I don't know what else is.

I must say, I'm disappointed. I thought this place was different.

It is different, but it's not perfect.

"Nothing's clean Howard, but we do our best."

Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by logtroll
Geez, GNT, your emotional and irrational spleen against Bernie really thins your credibility as an objective critic.

Is "spleen" referring to the post or to the poster?
Boy howdy folks, be nice to each other.

Well, you know, Greger did clarify it. It's referring to the poster.

Greger: "I agree, you're emotional and irrational."

What he said to me:

YOU. ARE. EMOTIONAL. AND. IRRATIONAL.

If this isn't a personal attack, I don't know what else is.

I must say, I'm disappointed. I thought this place was different.

It is different, but it's not perfect.

"Nothing's clean Howard, but we do our best."

I'd dispute the notion that this is doing our best.
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by Greger
"your emotional and irrational"...

I agree, you're emotional and irrational. I'm okay with that. I expect it from Democrats. But once you take a hard right turn like that, I just lump you with the republicans. It's not an attack on you, it's it's an ideological divide that can't be breached.

Come on guys, what is this?
Can we all just...try to get along?

[Linked Image from negromanosphere.com]

Please do leave me out of this "you all" because *I've* never personally attacked anybody here.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 02:44 AM
Just got back... guess I touched a nerve.

I’m not that sensitive, so I don’t have any comment about any personal attack. But calling Sanders a loser over and over because he didn’t sponsor any major legislation didn’t look rational to me. It’s just my opinion, and I linked an article to support my view.

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. After reading my link, do you still hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 03:17 AM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Just got back... guess I touched a nerve.

I’m not that sensitive, so I don’t have any comment about any personal attack. But calling Sanders a loser over and over because he didn’t sponsor any major legislation didn’t look rational to me. It’s just my opinion, and I linked an article to support my view.

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. After reading my link, do you still hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history?

Now that's interesting. Footnote in history. Possible. Is Goldwater a footnote in history? He was the one who started the conservative movement by being blown out in the 1964 presidential election. His movement didn't take hold until 1980 with the election of Reagan. But his movement, I'll call it traditional conservatism has morphed into something completely different, a different type/s of conservatism Goldwater wouldn't recognize. Once known as the father of Conservatism, most modern day conservatives call him a libertarian because his brand wasn't neo or religious conservatism. Barry wanted to get those religious nuts out of the Republican Party.

Sanders, footnote, perhaps? That depends on how his ideas catch on with the American public, all of the public and not just a faction within the Democratic Party. He could be looked back on as the father of a new progressive movement. Or relegated to just a footnote when talking about Democratic Primaries. The one who lost to Hillary and then lost to Biden. Some primary losers are remembered and become more than just a footnote. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, he lost to Ford and Ford lost to Carter. Many historians put the blame for Ford's loss on Reagan's challenge. But Ronnie won the presidency in 1980, so that's what he is remembered for.

Teddy Kennedy is also well documented in 1980 for challenging Carter. Again, historians always list Teddy's challenge of Jimmy as one of the reason Jimmy lost in 1980. But Ted Kennedy's fame is being JFK's and RFK's brother. Much more than his challenge to Carter.

Sanders, a footnote to history is possible, maybe even probable. It all depends whether a young fresh faced progressive picks up his ideas and runs with them and wins. Time will tell.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 03:18 AM
Quote
YOU. ARE. EMOTIONAL. AND. IRRATIONAL.

If this isn't a personal attack, I don't know what else is.

Son, if you thought that was a personal attack you have no idea of what I am capable of delivering. But the Admin has spoken and I'm going to delete that comment.

I had hoped we could be friends but I'm happy the other way too.
Originally Posted by logtroll
Just got back... guess I touched a nerve.

I’m not that sensitive, so I don’t have any comment about any personal attack. But calling Sanders a loser over and over because he didn’t sponsor any major legislation didn’t look rational to me. It’s just my opinion, and I linked an article to support my view.

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. After reading my link, do you still hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history?

OK, so now I'm over-sensitive too, not just emotional and irrational. Gee, thanks. I guess it comes with the territory, right? You know, emotional, sensitive, irrational people... What's next, hysterical?

I've already replied to your observation on amendments. Post #326037 above. I was fully aware that he has sponsored amendments; just not impressed by that.

And I didn't say Sanders is a loser because he didn't sponsor major legislation. I said he is ineffective for this reason. Yes, I did call him a loser, but that's because of another reason: he lost. Twice. And one of them, to one of the worst candidates in History.

No, I don't hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history. Like I said, he does have a claim to fame: having helped the election of Donald J. Trump.
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
YOU. ARE. EMOTIONAL. AND. IRRATIONAL.

If this isn't a personal attack, I don't know what else is.

Son, if you thought that was a personal attack you have no idea of what I am capable of delivering. But the Admin has spoken and I'm going to delete that comment.

I had hoped we could be friends but I'm happy the other way too.

If you say so, sure, I'll believe you that you have the ability to deliver more damaging personal attacks; but that one was one, no doubt. Can't be any clearer.

Why are you under the impression that I'm making any friendship difficult? I'm not the one making personal attacks. So let me get this straight. We disagree on the matter of Bernie Sanders. You then attack me (although I did not attack you). Therefore, you say I can't be your friend; you'll be happy the other way - that is, enemy? What do you want, a sounding board? If someone doesn't agree with you, the person is to be attacked, and is to become your enemy? Bravo.

By the way I'm not your son. At my advanced age, my parents are long deceased. Please don't "son" me. It's condescending.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 03:25 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Like everything else political, I think whether or not one views a candidate, a person as being charismatic is a personal opinion. For my purpose it was pitting candidate against candidate. How one's charismatic personality can attract voters to him that otherwise may not have voted for him.

The top four according to Larry Sabato was FDR, JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton as having dynamic charismatic personalities. I'd have to add Obama to that list, while in my opinion, Obama had less charisma that those four. I was also talking about attracting voters from America as a whole, not just one's supporters.

Supporters of certain candidates are usually entranced by that candidate. But how that candidates fairs with those who aren't his avid supporters is where charisma comes into play, especially with independents, the non-affiliated voter.

I do think Sanders had more charisma than Biden, but we're talking about the Democratic primary voters. Less than a third of all voters nationwide. Sanders didn't have a chance to test those waters and to see if he could or couldn't attract the independent voter. He was tested only by Democrats for the most part although some independents did vote in the open primary states. The primaries are more about name recognition and political stances, ideology, party loyalist.

You haven't yet got into the battle for the less political, the less to non-partisan and non-affiliated voter. They haven't had a chance to weigh in yet.

There's no doubt in my mind that Biden isn't charismatic in the sense of a Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, JFK or even an Obama. But not being Trump may be enough. Hillary certainly wasn't, her personality wasn't the type to attract independents. Neither was Kerry or Gore, two statues. McCain didn't have it either nor Dole or G.H.W Bush. If you don't have it, you better hope you get matched up against someone with less charisma than you which happened in 1988, Bush vs. Dukakis, 1968 Nixon vs. Humphrey, 1976 Carter vs. Ford and so on.

Perhaps the most important thing is how a candidate and as president later on can connect with the people. Once again the best at this were the four Larry Sabato pointed out. FDR, JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton. then in fifth place, I'd put Obama.
Don't forget Teddy R. Bully!
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by logtroll
Just got back... guess I touched a nerve.

I’m not that sensitive, so I don’t have any comment about any personal attack. But calling Sanders a loser over and over because he didn’t sponsor any major legislation didn’t look rational to me. It’s just my opinion, and I linked an article to support my view.

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. After reading my link, do you still hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history?

Now that's interesting. Footnote in history. Possible. Is Goldwater a footnote in history? He was the one who started the conservative movement by being blown out in the 1964 presidential election. His movement didn't take hold until 1980 with the election of Reagan. But his movement, I'll call it traditional conservatism has morphed into something completely different, a different type/s of conservatism Goldwater wouldn't recognize. Once known as the father of Conservatism, most modern day conservatives call him a libertarian because his brand wasn't neo or religious conservatism. Barry wanted to get those religious nuts out of the Republican Party.

Sanders, footnote, perhaps? That depends on how his ideas catch on with the American public, all of the public and not just a faction within the Democratic Party. He could be looked back on as the father of a new progressive movement. Or relegated to just a footnote when talking about Democratic Primaries. The one who lost to Hillary and then lost to Biden. Some primary losers are remembered and become more than just a footnote. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, he lost to Ford and Ford lost to Carter. Many historians put the blame for Ford's loss on Reagan's challenge. But Ronnie won the presidency in 1980, so that's what he is remembered for.

Teddy Kennedy is also well documented in 1980 for challenging Carter. Again, historians always list Teddy's challenge of Jimmy as one of the reason Jimmy lost in 1980. But Ted Kennedy's fame is being JFK's and RFK's brother. Much more than his challenge to Carter.

Sanders, a footnote to history is possible, maybe even probable. It all depends whether a young fresh faced progressive picks up his ideas and runs with them and wins. Time will tell.

The father of a new progressive movement? I pity the "new progressive movement" if its father is the ineffective loser known as Bernie Sanders. I guess he is better than AOC (not so hard to be better than that one). If she's the heir, God help us.

Bernie Sanders is not fostering the growth of the progressive movement. He is fostering its shrinkage. His voting percentages shrank as opposed to 2016 - OK, this like I said might be due to the Not-Hillary effect, but even his youth support declined as opposed to 2016, and that's more telling.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 03:33 AM
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by logtroll
Just got back... guess I touched a nerve.

I’m not that sensitive, so I don’t have any comment about any personal attack. But calling Sanders a loser over and over because he didn’t sponsor any major legislation didn’t look rational to me. It’s just my opinion, and I linked an article to support my view.

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. After reading my link, do you still hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history?

Now that's interesting. Footnote in history. Possible. Is Goldwater a footnote in history? He was the one who started the conservative movement by being blown out in the 1964 presidential election. His movement didn't take hold until 1980 with the election of Reagan. But his movement, I'll call it traditional conservatism has morphed into something completely different, a different type/s of conservatism Goldwater wouldn't recognize. Once known as the father of Conservatism, most modern day conservatives call him a libertarian because his brand wasn't neo or religious conservatism. Barry wanted to get those religious nuts out of the Republican Party.

Sanders, footnote, perhaps? That depends on how his ideas catch on with the American public, all of the public and not just a faction within the Democratic Party. He could be looked back on as the father of a new progressive movement. Or relegated to just a footnote when talking about Democratic Primaries. The one who lost to Hillary and then lost to Biden. Some primary losers are remembered and become more than just a footnote. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, he lost to Ford and Ford lost to Carter. Many historians put the blame for Ford's loss on Reagan's challenge. But Ronnie won the presidency in 1980, so that's what he is remembered for.

Teddy Kennedy is also well documented in 1980 for challenging Carter. Again, historians always list Teddy's challenge of Jimmy as one of the reason Jimmy lost in 1980. But Ted Kennedy's fame is being JFK's and RFK's brother. Much more than his challenge to Carter.

Sanders, a footnote to history is possible, maybe even probable. It all depends whether a young fresh faced progressive picks up his ideas and runs with them and wins. Time will tell.

The father of a new progressive movement? I pity the "new progressive movement" if its father is the ineffective loser known as Bernie Sanders. I guess he is better than AOC (not so hard to be better than that one). If she's the heir, God help us.
Hey now, I happen to love AOC. She raw, but she's sharp, and really represents her generation, in my humble opinion. I'm judging that on my sons' views, which are seriously left of mine, and I'm a radical, yanno.
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Originally Posted by GreatNewsTonight
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by logtroll
Just got back... guess I touched a nerve.

I’m not that sensitive, so I don’t have any comment about any personal attack. But calling Sanders a loser over and over because he didn’t sponsor any major legislation didn’t look rational to me. It’s just my opinion, and I linked an article to support my view.

It wasn’t a personal attack, it was an observation. After reading my link, do you still hold the opinion that Sanders is an empty footnote in history?

Now that's interesting. Footnote in history. Possible. Is Goldwater a footnote in history? He was the one who started the conservative movement by being blown out in the 1964 presidential election. His movement didn't take hold until 1980 with the election of Reagan. But his movement, I'll call it traditional conservatism has morphed into something completely different, a different type/s of conservatism Goldwater wouldn't recognize. Once known as the father of Conservatism, most modern day conservatives call him a libertarian because his brand wasn't neo or religious conservatism. Barry wanted to get those religious nuts out of the Republican Party.

Sanders, footnote, perhaps? That depends on how his ideas catch on with the American public, all of the public and not just a faction within the Democratic Party. He could be looked back on as the father of a new progressive movement. Or relegated to just a footnote when talking about Democratic Primaries. The one who lost to Hillary and then lost to Biden. Some primary losers are remembered and become more than just a footnote. Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, he lost to Ford and Ford lost to Carter. Many historians put the blame for Ford's loss on Reagan's challenge. But Ronnie won the presidency in 1980, so that's what he is remembered for.

Teddy Kennedy is also well documented in 1980 for challenging Carter. Again, historians always list Teddy's challenge of Jimmy as one of the reason Jimmy lost in 1980. But Ted Kennedy's fame is being JFK's and RFK's brother. Much more than his challenge to Carter.

Sanders, a footnote to history is possible, maybe even probable. It all depends whether a young fresh faced progressive picks up his ideas and runs with them and wins. Time will tell.

The father of a new progressive movement? I pity the "new progressive movement" if its father is the ineffective loser known as Bernie Sanders. I guess he is better than AOC (not so hard to be better than that one). If she's the heir, God help us.
Hey now, I happen to love AOC. She raw, but she's sharp, and really represents her generation, in my humble opinion. I'm judging that on my sons' views, which are seriously left of mine, and I'm a radical, yanno.

Sharp? I certainly disagree. The interviews I watched with her, she struck me as rather unintelligent. As in, the interviewer throws her a curve ball, she responds in a way that weakens even more her position instead of fortifying it. She doesn't seem to be fast-thinking. Rather stereotypical; not to forget, quite arrogant. Maybe once she becomes more experienced, she will improve, but I don't hold my breath.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 03:52 AM
AOC is sharp as a tack. Very intelligent.
Regarding the latest exchanges in this thead:

Whatever.

Good bye, everybody.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 04:08 AM
hitsfan
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 08:35 PM
Okay...Looking ahead, here's an interesting article about who benefits with vote by mail. Very interesting.

"Which Party Would Benefit Most From Voting by Mail? It's Complicated."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/party-benefit-most-voting-mail-121301144.html

It seems conventional wisdom about voting by mail may or may not apply.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/25/20 08:49 PM
I'm thinking it's a ploy! Trump voted by mail yet wants to stop others from being able to conveniently vote. It is my belief that he plans to use mail in voting to declare the election null and void while at the same time declaring himself the victor.

I know, sounds crazy, right? Just one of many dirty tricks this administration concentrates on rather than actually governing.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 12:17 AM
You got me thinking which can be dangerous. Can Trump cancel the election, no he can't. But there are so many variables. One thing is for sure, Trump's presidency will end at noon on 20 Jan 2021 unless reelected. Now if you're into some heaving reading, the below article explains many situations that delaying or canceling the election could cause and who might or could become president.

"Can Trump cancel the November election?"

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/21/21188152/trump-cancel-november-election-constitution-coronavirus
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 12:41 AM
Originally Posted by logtroll
AOC is sharp as a tack. Very intelligent.
I agree. AOC is very intelligent. Some men can't handle that. I cite AOC's 60 Minutes interview. smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 12:45 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
I'm thinking it's a ploy! Trump voted by mail yet wants to stop others from being able to conveniently vote. It is my belief that he plans to use mail in voting to declare the election null and void while at the same time declaring himself the victor.

I know, sounds crazy, right? Just one of many dirty tricks this administration concentrates on rather than actually governing.
Trump voted by mail illegally. He's not a resident of Florida, nor can he ever live at Mara-Largo per this 1993 Agreement between the town of Palm Beach, FL and Donald Trump.

smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 01:40 AM
WOW! Far as I know Trump has moved his residency to Florida from New York. He's a snowbird so it's no biggie most of 'em do it eventually.

Quote
Trump has used the absentee voting system in at least three elections: Trump voted by mail during New York’s mayoral election in 2017, cast an absentee ballot during the state’s midterm election the following year, and again used a vote-by-mail ballot in Florida’s primary election in 2020. (Snopes)

But I'm not sure I buy the bit about voting in Florida's primary...
Did we have a Republican primary? He can't vote in the Democratic one and the one for candidates other than president isn't until August.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 01:52 AM
Quote
"Can Trump cancel the November election?"

No he cannot. BUT....he doesn't need to. Remember how the Supreme Court appointed Gore? Essentially declared him the winner without finishing the re-count.

Trump is angling(in this particular conspiracy theory of mine) to have the results declared null and void due to inconsistencies and fraud involved in the mail in vote. Supreme Court will side with him as always and declare him the winner!

I don't really think he can pull it off but he'll try every dirty trick anybody can think of. And that's what his administration does. They sit around thinking up dirty tricks instead of governing.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 01:57 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
WOW! Far as I know Trump has moved his residency to Florida from New York. He's a snowbird so it's no biggie most of 'em do it eventually.

Quote
Trump has used the absentee voting system in at least three elections: Trump voted by mail during New York’s mayoral election in 2017, cast an absentee ballot during the state’s midterm election the following year, and again used a vote-by-mail ballot in Florida’s primary election in 2020. (Snopes)

But I'm not sure I buy the bit about voting in Florida's primary...
Did we have a Republican primary? He can't vote in the Democratic one and the one for candidates other than president isn't until August.

You did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Florida_Republican_primary

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 03:23 AM
Well, son of a gun! Who even knew? I wonder who Trump voted for...?
Guess we'll never find out.

But that clears up any question of his residency. As far as him residing at his private club, I'm sure he'll get that part fixed. He's fairly influential these days.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 05:59 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
I'm not sure I buy the bit about voting in Florida's primary...
Did you read the 1993 Agreement that I linked? It's the actual agreement between Trump and the town of Palm Beach with Trump's signature on it.

The Agreement clearly states that Mara-largo is a Club and not a residence and the NO ONE can stay there for more than 7 days in a year.

Hmm

From what I read on the internet, most of the residence in Palm Beach don't like the interruption to their lives when Trump brings the whole kit and caboodle to town and it will be the same when he's out of office for a least a decade.

I'm sure the 1993 Agreement will try to be enforced by some locals who don't like the blatant vulgarian, the incessant prevaricator, the inept POTUS murderer named Donald J Trump.

smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 05:29 PM
I read it and he already stays there more than that. But like I said he wields a lot of influence in high places and small town politicians will be no match for him. He was just a millionaire playboy when he bought the place for cheap. But even then he managed to get air traffic from Palm Beach International re-routed so the noise wouldn't bother him. And that's only one of the stories about him bullying the locals.

I look for him to be the first president to dismiss his security team so once he's out of office the motorcades might only be two cars. With luck he'll go to jail in New York and die there.

Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 06:00 PM
Do not be to sure about that. Where Mar-A-Logo is located there are people who have the money to go toe-to-toe with President Donald (...) Trump*. Even if he is a real Billionaire, which is yet to be proven.

Remember, there was a real dust up over a flag pole for years, between President Donald (...) Trump* and the city of Palm Beach.

There is also the eternal hope of a Cat 5 stopping by for a day or two. That island ain't that wide...


*Impeached
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 06:47 PM
It aint very tall either. Mare and lago could easily meet in this era of superstorms.

Just saw someplace that Trumps estimated worth is a little over two billion. He owns feck tons of real estate.

I think Trump has a bungalow on the property and has wintered there for years. Year round golf and that's his passion. Donald Trump does what he damn well pleases. He'll send lawyers to court but generally ignores what the courts tell him. There may be a piece of paper somewhere that says a caretaker or others may live on the grounds.

He does what he wants when he wants and nobody pushes him around.

That's what his people love about him.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/26/20 11:35 PM
Yeah, where Trump comes across as a schoolyard bully to me. That is exactly what a lot of his supporters like. I view him with all his temper tantrums, his name calling and constantly creating needless feuds more like a four year old spoiled brat who's parents forgot to teach him any manners.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/27/20 01:12 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Yeah, where Trump comes across as a schoolyard bully to me. That is exactly what a lot of his supporters like. I view him with all his temper tantrums, his name calling and constantly creating needless feuds more like a four year old spoiled brat who's parents forgot to teach him any manners.
Trump with all of his whiny complaints, his pouty demeanor, and his mean-girl tweets is nothing but a 74 year old child playing grown-up. Trump is a hero to a culture in which so many men are already trapped in perpetual adolescence. Trump likes to play tough, but starts crying about his victimization at the hands of liberal elites if they subject him to criticism of any kind.

Trump is a walking permission slip to his white male high school-educated base to shrug off the responsibilities of any kind. So much for personal responsibility Republican used crow about.

smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/27/20 01:13 AM


...and speaking of mean-girl tweets, Trump’s ‘weaponized’ Twitter account is a window into his diseased mind. Seriously.

Hmm
Posted By: Spag-hetti Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/27/20 04:15 AM
Yep. What he accuses others of is what he's already done or is currently doing. He's amazingly transparent.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/27/20 05:09 AM
Originally Posted by Spag-hetti
Yep. What he accuses others of is what he's already done or is currently doing. He's amazingly transparent.
Psghetti!!!!1!!1!!!!!!!

smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/27/20 05:10 AM


Yup. Accuse others of the very thing that he’s guilty of.

“Puppet. No puppet. You’re the puppet.
- Donald Trump “

rolleyes
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/27/20 04:56 PM
!
Welcome home, Spag-Hetti. It's good to see you again!
Quote
Accuse others of the very thing that he’s guilty of.

Exactly. That's why Biden has to be a child molester, and senile. Obama has to be a traitor. Hillary has to be a criminal.

All stuff that Trump has done or is doing right now. It's a recurrent theme.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/28/20 03:14 AM
They call that projection don't they?
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/28/20 05:32 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
They call that projection don't they?
If by "they" you mean psychotherapists...yes, "they" do.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/31/20 12:11 PM
How about those voters who dislike both candidates? I was busy checking the polls for someone else on a different subject, independents to be exact. But this struck me. Voters who dislike or hate both candidates.

In 2016 according to Gallup 25% of all Americans disliked and didn’t want neither Trump nor Clinton to become their next president. The dislike factor or the hate factor depending on how one’s view this.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

According to the exit polls, these folks who didn’t want neither candidate broke for Trump 47-30 over Clinton. Trump’s favorable back then was at 36%, Hillary’s 38% nationally.

What I’m seeing today using RCP favorable averaging is Trump is up from 36 to 41% nationally, Biden up from Hillary 38% to 44% nationally with those who disliked both candidates down from 25% to 14%. Being this election is a referendum on Trump, I expect those who dislike both candidates to break for Biden this time around instead of going to Trump as they did in 2016. An even split would benefit Biden, but most polls show Biden winning this dislike both candidate group. In 2016, 6% of all Americans voted third party, against Trump and against Hillary Clinton. I don’t expect that high of a number in 2020. Probably closer to the normal average of 1.5%. The disliked of both candidates are way down, also instead of polls showing at the end of May 2016 13% stating they would vote third party, at the end of May 2020, only 4% are doing so. Advantage Biden in my book.

Am I reading this right, time will tell.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/31/20 02:03 PM
With the riots going on, I wonder if this will work for Trump.

"After Minneapolis, Can Trump’s Law-And-Order Strategy Work?"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/after-minneapolis-can-trumps-law-and-order-strategy-work/

This strategy would be directed at the white voter basically caused by blacks rioting. It's interesting to note that Trump won the white vote in 2016 57-37 over Hillary. In the most recent polls, Trump advantage has slipped to 49-39 over Biden with the rest either undecided, voting for other, not sure.

For comparison by election of the white vote
2016 57-37 for Trump
2012 59-39 for Romney
2008 55-43 for McCain
2004 58-41 for Bush
2000 55-42 for Bush

I'll stop there as in 1992 and 1996 were three candidate races, Bill Clinton, G.H.W. Bush, Dole and Perot which skews the white vote stats.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 05/31/20 03:54 PM

Only if the "white voter" supports police brutality against black Americans. Righties had grand mal conniptions about Colin taking a knee. Not such a bad idea now, huh Righties?

smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 01:04 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Only if the "white voter" supports police brutality against black Americans. Righties had grand mal conniptions about Colin taking a knee. Not such a bad idea now, huh Righties?

smile

White voters support police brutality against blacks. They have always supported all types of brutality against blacks. From the Founders to this current administration.

This election is not just a moratorium on Trump, he made it about racism from the very beginning. The Nazis and white supremacists have flocked to him since he came down that escalator. A few of them felt bad after watching that video but fortunately the blacks misbehaved as we all knew they would! Starting fires and looting just like they always do. Proving that white voters were right all along...

They'll vote for Trump, but it won't be enough.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 11:41 AM
Right, wrong or indifferent, history shows whenever you have riots and looting as we have going on now, it always benefits the law and order candidates. The original cause is lost, only the images of the riots remain.

Viewing this through historical stand points is why I posted the white voter percentages for Trump as of the end of last week. It's too early for any meaningful numbers today. The meaningful numbers usually come a week to two weeks after any event. Overnight polls in my opinion are meaningless.

If we go by history in this, Trump will get a good bump up in the polls and an increase in white voters above his current 49% he has today. But it will be short lived. Within a month, perhaps two months after the riots cease and peace is restored, that bump will dissipate to go back to where things stood prior to the event, happening, riots in this case.

It's the riots most folks will remember, not the death of George Floyd. That is just the way it is. The original cause of the protest has been lost, dead and buried, only the riots and looting remain in most folks minds.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 12:05 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Right, wrong or indifferent, history shows whenever you have riots and looting as we have going on now, it always benefits the law and order candidates.
Law and Order Presidents don't accept help from Russia to win elections. Law and Order Presidents don't ignore subpoenas.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 03:01 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Right, wrong or indifferent, history shows whenever you have riots and looting as we have going on now, it always benefits the law and order candidates.
Law and Order Presidents don't accept help from Russia to win elections. Law and Order Presidents don't ignore subpoenas.

smile
You're ignoring the historical perspective that I placed my post in. One thing one needs to realize is politics, candidates, is all about perspectives. Personal perspectives. History shows that such things as riots and looting for whatever cause, that benefits law and order candidates.

Most don't follow through. Rhetoric is enough. You don't like rioting and looting in your city, vote for me. I'll bring law and order to the streets.

Or it could be, vote for me, my opponent supports the looters. Something akin to that which, mark my word, will garner some support. That has always worked to a degree in the past, I don't see it failing this time.

To place all of this into the proper context, one must look at it as America as a whole, all Americans and not just from one political view point which could be just a small faction of America or a large one.

with the rioting going one, sure, Trump can portray himself as a law and order president through rhetoric only. He doesn't have to do a thing. For those who want the looting and rioting stopped, what he says could be enough to convince them that he is their man.

But this rioting probably has taken place too far out from the election to have any lasting effect. It's seems to me every political pundit out there classifies any event, happening as a game changer. 90% of the time, it isn't. sure the numbers go up during and right after the event, but 2 weeks, a month later, they all return to where they were prior to the so called game changing event even happening.
Posted By: Spag-hetti Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 03:05 PM
It's good to see you, as well, my friend.
Posted By: Spag-hetti Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 03:06 PM
Hey, Rick. Good to see you.
Posted By: Spag-hetti Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 04:06 PM
Quote
Originally posted by Greger

White voters support police brutality against blacks. They have always supported all types of brutality against blacks. From the Founders to this current administration.

This election is not just a moratorium on Trump, he made it about racism from the very beginning.

I agree. As I watch the coverage of the protesters, the looters, and the arsonists, I hope that people keep those three separate in their minds.

What scares me is that Trump can use the "riots" to showcase his racism, to the delight of his base. He's vilifying ANTIFA, but utters not a word about white supremacists and their ilk. The policing is at times horrendous and some of the National Guardsmen came on way too strong. It's jarring to see our troops used aggressively and seemingly indiscriminately against Americans.

Surely we can't normalize this.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/01/20 06:52 PM
It is said that for every action, there is a reaction. What that reaction will be is based on the perceptions of each individual what the original action was that deemed the need for a reaction.

I think the initial reaction to the death of George Floyd by the kneeling cop was for most, that's horrible. The reaction for blacks in Minneapolis was a protest which eventually spread across the nation. The protest resulted into violence, arson, looting, riots. Now the original death is long forgotten by most, fixated with the images of the latest action, the riots, the looting, the arson.

We had an action replaced by a reaction, replaced by another reaction and then another reaction. It is the last images that is retain in most folks minds. Not the first action. I think the feeling of it's horrible when referring to the death of George Floyd has now been replaced, almost completely by these riots are horrible. That is outside of a few, a small segment of our population.

Will Trump benefit from the riots? Certainly he will. I believe that benefit will be short lived, but he will improve in the polls. For most people, it won't be the death of Mr. Floyd that will be remembered, it will be the riots, the looting, the arson.

It's like the kneeling of Colin Kaepernick, most don't remember the reasons why he knelt, only the fracas about kneeling during the national anthem. Even I couldn't remember what it was Kaepernick was protesting by kneeling until I googled it. But I do remember the uproar about the kneeling during the national anthem. I would wager once all the dust settles on the present rioting, it will be the rioting that is remembered by most, the cause long forgotten.

George Will has an interesting take on the election:

Quote
In life’s unforgiving arithmetic, we are the sum of our choices. Congressional Republicans have made theirs for more than 1,200 days. We cannot know all the measures necessary to restore the nation’s domestic health and international standing, but we know the first step: Senate Republicans must be routed, as condign punishment for their Vichyite collaboration, leaving the Republican remnant to wonder: Was it sensible to sacrifice dignity, such as it ever was, and to shed principles, if convictions so easily jettisoned could be dignified as principles, for what? Praying people should pray, and all others should hope: May I never crave anything as much as these people crave membership in the world’s most risible deliberative body.

A political party’s primary function is to bestow its imprimatur on candidates, thereby proclaiming: This is who we are. In 2016, the Republican Party gave its principal nomination to a vulgarian and then toiled to elect him. And to stock Congress with invertebrates whose unswerving abjectness has enabled his institutional vandalism, who have voiced no serious objections to his Niagara of lies, and whom T.S. Eliot anticipated:

We are the hollow men.
Our dried voices, when
We whisper together
Are quiet and meaningless
As wind in dry grass
or rats’ feet over broken glass ...

from George Will in The Washington Post

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/03/20 11:38 AM
"Trump Pulls Republican National Convention From North Carolina"

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-pulls-republican-national-convention-013520868.html

Trump vs. Biden and North Carolina's senate between Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham are pure tossup's. 50-50 odds on both the presidential and senate races. Although pulling the convention by no means dooms the two Republicans, it certainly doesn't help. What it might do is dampen some Republican support. A bit less energy and enthusiasm from what might and probably would have been.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/03/20 12:05 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Right, wrong or indifferent, history shows whenever you have riots and looting as we have going on now, it always benefits the law and order candidates.
Law and Order Presidents don't accept help from Russia to win elections. Law and Order Presidents don't ignore subpoenas.

smile
You're ignoring the historical perspective that I placed my post in.
You're ignoring the fact that the Trump presidency has been like no other. smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/03/20 12:06 PM
Originally Posted by Spag-hetti
Hey, Rick. Good to see you.
smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/03/20 04:44 PM
Quote
history shows whenever you have riots and looting as we have going on now, it always benefits the law and order candidates.
With his blatant disregard for both law and order, this chaotic president may or may not get a boost from these riots caused by out of control law enforcement.

Is Joe Biden the anti law and order candidate? Is he calling for violence in the streets? Or is he acting like a leader trying to restore law and order.

Threatening to use the US Military to attack peaceful protesters, threatening to release the dogs of war within his own nation...

That aint law an order, that's civil war. There's a big chunk of America that wants civil war, wants democrats killed, and wants a dictator, not a president.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/04/20 11:38 AM
Trump is unique and it seems anything involving Trump goes against conventional wisdom and historical precedence. I should have learned that a long time ago. Trump trying to be the law and order candidate seems to have backfired on him. As usual he overdoes it. Trump's overall approval has dropped from 46.5% down to 43.5% since 25 May along with only 32% of Americans approving of his handling of the protests, 51% disapprove.

In the past during protests that have turned violent, turned into riots with looting, burning and killing, the law and order folks have benefited. Not this time. At least not as yet anyway. I seem to have been wrong on this by looking back to historical similar events.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/07/20 09:58 PM
Here's another interesting article.

"Vote for Trump? These Republican Leaders Aren't on the Bandwagon."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-trump-republican-leaders-arent-152342707.html

It was this that garnered most of my attention. From the article.

“A lot of people that voted for President Trump did so because they did not like Hillary Clinton. I don’t see that happening with Joe Biden — how can you not like Joe Biden?”

What's interesting here is that in 2016 25% of of the electorate disliked both major party candidates. Trump won 47% of those to Hillary's 30% with the rest voting third party. Those who had an unfavorable view of Hillary went to Trump 81-11 while those who viewed Trump unfavorably went to Hillary 77-15. There's no doubt numbers wise that those who disliked both candidates, Hillary was the strongest disliked. In other words, one might disliked both Trump and Hillary, but Hillary was the more disliked than Trump enabling him to garner more of the dislike vote than Hillary.

I don't see that happening in 2020.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 01:21 AM
George Bush, Colin Powel, Jim Mattis, John Kelly, Mitt Romney and many more high falutin' Republicans have had their fill of this president.

I think it's gonna translate into a blue rout, a coup of sorts.

Voters only thought they wanted Republican leadership.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 01:41 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Voters only thought they wanted Republican leadership.
Turns out there is no such thing, unless your destination is the dismal abyss.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 02:55 AM
Each individual has their reasons why they vote the way they do. Some may seem asinine to others, but whatever reason the individual has is important to him.

The reason Trump is president is the choices, decisions and actions by both major parties back in 2016. The Democrats just happen to nominate the only candidate, alive or dead that could possibly lose to Trump. What you or I thought about Hillary is pretty much irrelevant, it was what America as a whole thought about her. One probably could narrow that down to the three deciding states if one had a mind to.

People tend to vote out the incumbents or the party in power when they get mad, angry at something the party in power did that they didn't like or want at the time. Americans like switching the presidents party out every 8 years. With the exception of Reagan/Bush's 12 years stint, no party has held the presidency for more than 8 years.

You had FDR/Truman for 20 years. Then IKE for 8, then JFK and LBJ for 8, Nixon and Ford for 8, Carter for only four, followed by Reagan and Bush for 12, Bill Clinton for 8, G.W. Bush for 8, Obama for 8 and now Trump for probably 4.

I think the voters in 2016 didn't want neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton. But were forced to choose. I suppose one could say only Democrats wanted Hillary, only Republicans Trump while most independents, 54% disliked and didn't want neither one. Independents gave Trump the White House, voting for him by a 46-42 margin over Hillary with 12% voting third party, against both.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

If you're a Democrat for 2020, you can take solace that Biden is disliked a whole lot less by independents than Hillary was. In the world of both major parties shrinking, their share of the electorate dropping, winning the independent vote is becoming much more important than in the past. In 2006 only 30% of the electorate identified themselves as Independents, 37% Democratic, 31% Republican, today Independents are up to 40% with only 31% Democrat and 28% Republican.

Quote
In 2006 only 30% of the electorate identified themselves as Independents, 37% Democratic, 31% Republican, today Independents are up to 40% with only 31% Democrat and 28% Republican.

It will be interesting to see in 2024 how that affiliation split goes. If Biden and a Democratic congress can fix everything Trump broke, a lot more independents might decide to call themselves democrats.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 12:50 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
In 2006 only 30% of the electorate identified themselves as Independents, 37% Democratic, 31% Republican, today Independents are up to 40% with only 31% Democrat and 28% Republican.

It will be interesting to see in 2024 how that affiliation split goes. If Biden and a Democratic congress can fix everything Trump broke, a lot more independents might decide to call themselves democrats.

The history of party affiliation goes up and down, but we can look at averages thanks to Pew Research and Gallup. The Republicans have been constant since Eisenhower, 25-30% of the electorate. From a low of 21% in 1975 to a high of 32% during Reagan. The Democrats have been totally different. Averaging 45% from FDR until Reagan, then dropping down 35% until Obama and now at 31%. Twice the Democrats hit a high of 51% in 1961 and 1964.

Over this time we seen independents rise from 18% in 1950 up to 40% today. Independents hit 30% in 1974 and averaged 30% through 2006. Since then independents have slowly climbed steadily up until they reached 40% today.

As for 2024, it seems to me the normal range in this modern era of polarization and ultra high partisanship is the Democrats somewhere between 30-35% while the GOP retains their 25-30%. One thing is for certain, the dissatisfaction for both major parties are at an all time high. 55% of all Americans view the Democratic Party either somewhat or very unfavorably while 61% view the GOP either somewhat or very unfavorably.

This is the old only Democrats view their party favorably, only Republican view their party favorably while most independents view both parties unfavorably. Of course, independents should be no surprise there. If they didn't view both parties, if they didn't dislike both major parties, they'd belong to one or the other.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 04:19 PM
I'd like to add some additional info to my post above when it comes to independents. Now history shows those who identify as Republicans or Democrats will vote for their candidates 90% of the time on average.

As for independents, they're not one solid group. But at least three. Independents lean Democratic, Independents lean Republican and pure or true independents with no leans.

Independents which lean toward one party or the other average voting for the party's candidates they lean toward usually between 70-75% of the time. That's still high, but is a much lower percentage than those who affiliate with either major party.

The rough figures in those three categories, 40% of the electorate are independents, 40% of independents lean Democratic, 40% lean Republican, leaving 20% with no leans, pure or true independents. These numbers go up and down, it just so happens that on 13 May 2020 this was where they stood. Very unusual as normally the Democrats have a slight advantage in independents leans over the GOP and the pure or true independents usually are around 15% instead of 20%.

So I'll give you two sets of figures.
Straight party affiliation, 31% Democratic, 28% Republican, 40% independents
Party affiliation counting the leans, 47% Democratic, 44% Republican 8% pure or true independents with no leans.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 04:22 PM
2016

A lot can be said about it. Trump won the electoral college by 70,000 votes in three states. Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million. So it's not so much who voted for who, but where they voted.

Instead of Republicans, Democrats, and independents The vote was actually between rural, suburban, and city.

If it was up to me I'd eliminate political parties altogether. They haven't served this nation well. Increasing numbers of independent voters speak to this problem.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/08/20 07:33 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
2016

A lot can be said about it. Trump won the electoral college by 70,000 votes in three states. Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million. So it's not so much who voted for who, but where they voted.

Instead of Republicans, Democrats, and independents The vote was actually between rural, suburban, and city.

If it was up to me I'd eliminate political parties altogether. They haven't served this nation well. Increasing numbers of independent voters speak to this problem.
I agree with this. I always thought the increase in independents was a good thing. But what has happened is the more moderate factions in both parties have deserted them leaving the hard core ideologues. Hence a Trump vs. Hillary Clinton.

Hence where compromise and working together have become four letter words. Where the goal of each party is to stop the other party from accomplishing a thing. I do think our two party system worked beautifully when both parties had their conservative and liberal wings along with moderates. When independents made up but 20% or so the electorate. There was no straight party line votes back then. There was also respect from both parties for the other party and their members. Where the goal of each party was a secure, free and prosperous America, although the path there differed some.

This isn't the case today. Each party views the other party as this nation's number one enemy, that the other party is out to destroy this nation and only their party can save it. I have become so disgusted with both, I have basically dropped out of politics except for my monthly election forecasts.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/11/20 04:53 PM
Some nightmare scenarios for the November elections

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...he-the-november-elections-193855154.html

Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/11/20 08:12 PM
Well the RNC sure is not talking 2020 and President Donald (...) Trump* is the guest of honor.

New York Time Article - G.O.P. Platform, Rolled Over From 2016, Condemns the ‘Current President’

ROTFMOL LOL ROTFMOL LOL :ohsnap: popcorn2
Wouldn't it be funny if Trump's campaign rallies and Republican Convention manage to kill enough of his fans that he loses same swing states? Not by horrifying people, but actually killing the voters he needs to win.

The fact that Republican bigwigs will all attend the convention, and go unmasked, might just give us President Pelosi by the end of September. The fact that Republicans tend to meet and socialize with other Republicans just might create a huge Republican outbreak, and most Covid-19 fatalities are older men.

A few packed campaign rallies should get the convention crowd infected enough for a mass-spread event.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/16/20 05:48 PM
The only way it won't make it to the convention is if the rallies infect so many that even they start to actually believe that Covid-19 really exists. Then, again, I am not sure they are bright enough even then. Their strong point is that they have the capacity to march in lock step, apparently, forever. Regardless of why, or any bad results therein.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/17/20 04:49 PM
busybody Attorneys in Tulsa are trying to force attendees as the Trump rally to wear masks as they would prefer to not have a super spreader event. This is just not fair to our dear leader Trump! I say let him have at it! Damned pussies!
The timing will be tight. The Tulsa rally is on June 20th and the convention starts August 24th. It takes people about a month to die from Covid-19 and it may have an incubation period before any symptoms of 5-10 days. People who do get serious cases may be contagious during that 4-10 day pre-symptom period and not know it. So if everybody who went to the rally self-isolated for 14 days, then there would be little spread. But of course they won't.

I guess the real question is how many cycles of incubation and spread can they get in before the convention. If they go to group meetings, church, GOP insider get-togethers, etc. Then they could get the convention attendee infected population high enough for a truly massive superspread event.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/20 12:11 PM
Trump's character

"Americans' Views of Trump's Character Firmly Established"

https://news.gallup.com/poll/312737...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Trump's in your face, bullying, obnoxious persona is in my opinion the main reason he will lose in November. Not his policies or what he has done or hasn't done as president, but his unpresidential behavior. Strange as it may seem, looking at independents who are fairly split on Trump's policies and stances on issues, for some, against some, but really dislike him as a person. Only 24% of independents like Trump as a person, 48% dislike him. This is important as folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf

Now we know by historical averages that 90% of Republicans and Democrats will vote for their party's candidate regardless of who it is. Independents are finicky and at times have huge sways depending on their likes and dislikes and perceptions. Trump is in the white house because he won the independent vote in 2016, he'll probably be gone as he's about to lose those same voters. In my opinion anyway. Biden's big advantage over Hillary, he isn't as dislike by independents as Hillary was.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/20 05:04 PM
I watched an interview with one of the faithful which went to Tusla for the Great Reunion, with his complete family. When ask about face masks (he wasn't wearing one) he proudly stated that he is not going to encourage the Covid-19 hoax by wearing a mask.

As far as I can tell the greater the exposure the greater, and faster the reaction. There have been a lot of reports of illness appearing in a week or less.

So, if the attendees are anything like the one interviewed the follow week is gonna get pretty interesting pretty quick. Remember too, they are having the meeting in a closed area and there is going to be a LOT of yelling and screaming.

WOW!
Posted By: Hamish Howl Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/18/20 06:07 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
I watched an interview with one of the faithful which went to Tusla for the Great Reunion, with his complete family. When ask about face masks (he wasn't wearing one) he proudly stated that he is not going to encourage the Covid-19 hoax by wearing a mask.

As far as I can tell the greater the exposure the greater, and faster the reaction. There have been a lot of reports of illness appearing in a week or less.

So, if the attendees are anything like the one interviewed the follow week is gonna get pretty interesting pretty quick. Remember too, they are having the meeting in a closed area and there is going to be a LOT of yelling and screaming.

WOW!

Learning is sometimes painful. Sometimes that means you burn your [censored] screwing around with a hot stove. Sometimes it means your family dies of the plague.
Republicans become the new lepers! Voluntarily, no less.

This is what happens when a cult starts believing "alternate facts", meaning of course "lies". I should have started selling MAGA tee shirts back in 2016. At least somebody could have benefited from this mass delusion.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/19/20 05:36 PM
I figure 8 or 9 days should tell the tale. The officials in Oklahoma are also going nuts about this one but, obviously, Trump is doing what he damned well wants to - screw the natives?
I'm beginning to think William Barr needs to be part of a RICO prosecution next year. He's using his position as the AG to carry out illegal acts to protect his boss, just like a gang's attorney. RICO might be appropriate because of the complex interlocking relationships. They do meet all the RICO requirements, and the fun part is a RICO conviction can seize all the ill-gotten assets.

Does Trump have any assets that were NOT ill-gotten?
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/20/20 04:43 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Does Trump have any assets that were NOT ill-gotten?

His vulgarity? His ignorance? His racism? His misogyny? His chicken hawk belligerence? His greed?

All excellent assets for connecting with his supporters.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/20/20 05:06 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Republicans become the new lepers! Voluntarily, no less.

This is what happens when a cult starts believing "alternate facts", meaning of course "lies". I should have started selling MAGA tee shirts back in 2016. At least somebody could have benefited from this mass delusion.

Has a cult ever been so emotionally invested in a president? Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/20/20 05:07 PM
Originally Posted by Irked
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Does Trump have any assets that were NOT ill-gotten?

His vulgarity? His ignorance? His racism? His misogyny? His chicken hawk belligerence? His greed?

All excellent assets for connecting with his supporters.
All of Trump's ill-gotten assets are characteristics of a sociopath. smile
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/20/20 05:38 PM
This morning I watched as what looked like thousands were lining up (actually all bunched up on the street without masks (for the most part)) to get into the Trump rally. That, apparently, doesn't happen until tonight but they were also saying that they were probably going to open up the doors this morning, or early afternoon. I also watched a Trumpite, with no facemask, say he believed that there was a Covid-19 because he had a friend die of it (and, I think his friend's son too). That being said he doubted he would get it and was eager to get to the rally. I think this was just a warm up to REALLY getting infected later on.

Something is REALLY wrong here! What we are witnessing is thousands of otherwise growed up people determined to prove that they are willing to sacrifice EVERYTHING to prove to their Lord and Master that they are ready to sacrifice themselves and we are going to all get to watch this one. Its getting a bit scary I think.

INCREDIBLE!
Absolutely, they should open the doors right now and let as many of those idiots pack the place in a giant mass extinction event. By the time Trump gets there, the air in the hall should be teeming with live virus so anybody without a sealed hazmat suit gets infected.

Trump would be sure to die, as morbid obesity is one of the worst co-morbidities. Probably Pence as well since he would just try to pray it away, and refuse a ventilator as God's Will.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/21/20 04:42 PM
There was a plan to buy tickets and then not show. My kids all bought tickets. Their plan was to have the Trump rally fail due to lack of attendance. Perhaps they had something to do with the lack of attendees. The Trump forces pre-bragged thousand and thousands. I don't think they got over 15 thousand. Broke the poor leader's heart! On the up side very few were wearing masks, they filled the hall with all sorts of virus and other disgusting things in their ongoing effort to worship their Lord and Master. I give them about 2 weeks before it starts to come apart. I wonder how many got to give him a little hug in this time of deseration?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/21/20 04:56 PM
Tulsa Fire Department estimated the crowd at 6200.

Certainly more than Biden has ever drawn.

But is it really about how many people come see you? Or is it about who will best guide the ship of state.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/21/20 06:18 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
Something is REALLY wrong here! What we are witnessing is thousands of otherwise growed up people determined to prove that they are willing to sacrifice EVERYTHING to prove to their Lord and Master that they are ready to sacrifice themselves and we are going to all get to watch this one. Its getting a bit scary I think.
It's all very Jim Jonesy. Has there ever been a cult to emotionally invested in a POTUS? Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/21/20 06:22 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Tulsa Fire Department estimated the crowd at 6200.

Certainly more than Biden has ever drawn.

But is it really about how many people come see you? Or is it about who will best guide the ship of state.
Biden doesn't have to do any campaigning. Just cut devastating ads at the time of his choosing. He doesn't even have to debate Fat Donnie. Not a single person would change their vote if he didn't. "I'm not going to dignify the lies and insults with responses. The voters know my plans. They know the disaster that is Trump. They'll decide." Game over.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/21/20 08:07 PM
I agree that it should be about running the ship of state, who would be the best president and be able to do the most for the people. But it isn't. For roughly 2/3rds of all Americans it all about the letter behind the name. For 90% of those who affiliate or identify with both major parties, it's the R and or the D that decides their vote, not the best or worst candidate.

For the other third, call them independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated, whatever. They're all over the place as to the reason/s they vote the way they do. How they perceive the two candidates, their like or dislike of the candidates usually comes to the fore. Sometimes it's the one with the best slogan, the one who looks the most presidential, who their friends, family vote for, their stances on an issue or two, there's a lot of one issue voters out there. It's impossible to state all the reasons or to even quantify them.

I would say very few take into consideration who would be best at running the government. Then again among those who decide their vote on the letter behind the name actually think their candidate will be the best. Each individual views the two parties differently along with their candidates. It all boils down to how each individual views the candidates, their perception of the candidates, whether or not they did something to make folks angry or how they view the job they have been doing.

This election will be more about Trump than Biden which is probably a good thing for the Democrats. All we now need to do is to figure out how those pesky, finicky independents, swing voters view the two candidates.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/21/20 09:22 PM

I so tire of the "independent voter" arguments. I've never met an "independent" that actually votes for individuals of both parties every election.

If such an animal exists, these people are probably as rare as unicorns or pots of gold at the end of rainbows and not nearly as populous as one-third. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/22/20 12:20 AM
Call me a unicorn because I do exactly that. 2016 for example, third party for president, Republican for senate, democratic for congress. That's just on the federal level. 2018 we didn't have a senate race, but I voted Democratic for congress and Republican for governor and Lt. Governor.

What I see from studies of independents is you have approximately 40% who lean Republican and another 40% who lean Democratic. Now those numbers vary, go up and down. What's important is unlike those who call themselves Republicans and Democrats who will vote for their party's candidates 90% of the time. Independents who lean toward one party or the other will vote for the candidates of the party they lean toward 70%. Again this varies from election to election, going up and down, but on average it is 70%.

That leaves just 20% of independents with no leans, what I call true or pure independents. This is between 8-15% of the total electorate. This is also why or it is these true or pure independents why independents as a whole can vote for Democratic congressional candidates 57-39 over Republican congressional candidates in 2006, then reverse course and vote for Republican congressional candidate four years later in 2010 by a 56-37 margin. In 2014 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 54-42 over Democrats, then in 2018 voted for Democratic congressional candidates by the same 54-42 margin.

If you want to look at the presidential races, 2000 independents went to Bush 48-46, in 2004 for Bush again 48-47, for Obama in 2008 52-44 over McCain, but switched to Romney in 2012 51-48 and for Trump in 2016 46-42 over Hillary. with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Hillary. You could take this back to 1996 when 50% of independents voted for Bill Clinton, 33% for Dole and 17% for Perot. In 1992 it was 43% for Bill Clinton, 28% Bush and 30% for Perot.Independents are much more apt to vote third party than the party faithful as seen in 2016 with 12% of independents voting third party compared to just 3% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans.

You don't see the wild swings in presidential election as you do in congressional elections. Usually wild swings among independents such as the 57% voting Democratic in 2006 falling to 37% in 2010, a drop of 20 points is caused by anger at the party in power more than who the candidates are. The party in power did something independents didn't like or passed something they didn't want and they took their revenge by switching their allegiance form the party they once voted for to the other party. In plain English, they became very unhappy campers and wanted revenge.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/22/20 05:47 PM
I almost was gonna do that...but then our otherwise decent governor flubbed the Corona test.

I'm a left leaning independent though so I always vote a straight Democratic ticket. The lesser of two evils as it were.

I think that's how most folks vote, none of the candidates are worth voting for, none of them represent my views. I wouldn't like most of them if I met them at a party. But they wouldn't be chatting with the likes of me anyway.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/22/20 06:05 PM

I know I voted for a Republiclown once. I forget who it was...but it was not a major office like governor or Prezzie. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/23/20 01:31 PM
61% of all Americans feels that neither party represents them or reflects their opinions today, while 38% disagree. This includes 77% of independents and 54% of Republicans and 46% of Democrats. This feeling is growing as both parties move further left and right leaving the average American without a political party to call home. This can be seen in the rise of independents from 30% in 2006 to 40% today. Even so, there realistically is no choice for those dissatisfied with both major parties to vote for. Our two major parties have a monopoly on our election system.

57% of Americans think a viable or major third party is needed.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx

But that isn't about to happen. The Republicans and Democrats write our election laws and they do so as a mutual protection act. If there is one thing the two major parties agree on, it's no viable third party will ever rise to challenge them.

Then there is the financial aspect of it. Corporations, Wall Street Firms, Lobbyist, Special interests Groups, mega money donors, all donate their tens of millions adding up to hundreds of millions to the two major parties, none to third parties. You can see this in the presidential race of 2016 where Hillary raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump's 646.8 million while all third party candidates together raised and spent 6 million. When you're out spent approximately 2 billion to 6 million, you don't stand a chance. No way to get your message out or let the people know who you are.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

So yes, we're left with voting for the lesser of two evils, the candidates and political party we least want to lose, not win, but least want to lose. Isn't it strange that neither major party isn't one bit interested into moving toward the views and wants of 61% of Americans, only in their own ideology and political views and agenda. If one or the other did, they could become the dominant party for the next 40 years. But since they hold the power and the money, it doesn't matter if 60% or 80% of Americans desert them, they still control who gets on the ballot, who gets all the media attention, who gets into the debates, in short, they control our election system so to hell with the vast majority of Americans and their views and wants.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/23/20 05:12 PM
Quote
This feeling is growing as both parties move further left and right leaving the average American without a political party to call home.

I really haven't seen a lot of leftward movement in the Democratic Party.....We've got Bernie and AOC but neither of them represents the DNC or has any influence to speak of within the halls of congress.

My own feeling is that independents are not a vast centrist wellspring of voters disgruntled by the socialist vs fascist goings on within the parties but instead a growing number who are disgusted with the failure of government to accomplish anything over the last few decades.

Quote
neither major party isn't one bit interested into moving toward the views and wants of 61% of Americans, only in their own ideology and political views and agenda.

I love it when you type in a southern accent.

That's entirely wrong as you explained earlier. It's not about the ideology it's about the money. Industry controls government

Wealth controls government. Corporations control government.

Voters get a single vote every two years. Corporations vote every day with their millions of dollars in lobbying funds. They get to meet face to face with our representatives to plead their case and put a thick envelope into their hand. Voters can't compete and have largely given up.

Partisans once believed that the Republican Party was the business party and the Democratic party was the workers party.

That's not the case anymore, both parties are far more concerned with the state of industry than their representation of the people.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/23/20 06:41 PM
I hear you. There was a time, the time of the big tent Democratic Party where they represented the workers, the GOP was the country club party. The party of business. Now that has all changed in my opinion where neither represent the worker or even the people as a whole. Both major parties owe their hearts and souls to corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interest groups, mega money donors, etc as that is where they get most of their money to run their organizations and campaigns.

You're correct about independents not being monolithic. I suppose that is why independents are unable to establish a viable third party. Too much disagreement among them outside of the fact they dislike both major parties. Some are way left of the Democratic Party and some way right of the Republican Party. I also agree they see neither party as able to govern the country as in governing for all of America. They govern according to their base and their base's agenda, not as an American agenda, in general terms here. The problem is their base is shrinking.

As ideology wise, that depends on where on stand on the political spectrum whether they or you or me view the parties moving more left and more right. It also depends on the issues important to them. I'm probably more in the middle, a belief in the happy medium than either extreme left or right. But you're correct, how one views the movement depends on their political perspective.

From what I can tell so far on this site, you're way to the left of me. There's a lot of things you would favor I wouldn't. Also I think quite a lot we would be in total agreement. Probably mostly on social issues.

I still believe that if either party would take a few steps toward that happy medium that they could become dominate for the next 20-30 years. Much like the old big tent Democratic Party which controlled the House for 56 out of 60 years. That included 40 straight years.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/29/20 09:59 PM
I don't know how much credence to give this, but it's interesting and I think entirely possible.

"Trump in ‘fragile’ mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don’t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News"

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-fragile-mood-may-drop-152718908.html
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/30/20 01:17 AM
His numbers aren't going to improve and he stands no chance of winning.

So now we just watch the snowflake melt.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/30/20 02:26 PM
As the numbers stand now, I totally agree with you. You also have this:

Trump has lost his senior advantage. And that could cost him in November.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-lost-senior-advantage-could-104438826.html

The problem with thinking the election is in the bag at this early point in time is the official campaign season doesn't begin until 1 Sep. End of June Polls are interesting.

2020 Biden up by 9, results unknown
2016 Hillary up by 5, lost although she won the popular vote by 2 points.
2012 Obama up by 5, won by four
2008 Obama up by 7, won by eight
2004 Bush up by 1, won by three
2000 Bush up by 5, won although he lost the popular vote by 0.5 of a single point.
1996 Bill Clinton up by 16, won by 9
1992 Bush up by 6 over Bill Clinton, up by 1 over Perot, lost by 6
1988 Dukakis up by 5, lost by 8
1984 Reagan up by 8, won by 18
1980 Carter up by 3, lost by 10

Kind of a mixed bag there. Carter, Dukakis, G.H.W. Bush and Hillary who led at the end of June all lost. But Hillary is the only one to lose since 1992 and she won the popular vote. So perhaps having an early lead at the end of June is more important than it was in the past. Time will tell.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/30/20 03:41 PM

Progressive Groups Urge Biden to Pick Warren in Open Letter That Doesn’t Address Race. You may get your wish Greger. smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/30/20 04:43 PM
I wouldn't be upset if Tammy Ducktape got the call but Warren is still my favorite.

Pero, I figured this election was in the bag long ago. I'm usually wrong about these things but Trump seems to just be digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole he can never climb out of.

It has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with idiocy.

Trumps real problem is that he keeps promoting things that piss off or kill his voters. Being so hostile to old people, poor people, and the military is just crazy for a Republican. I really think if he can hang in there for the election, he could have the lowest electoral college vote total ever.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 06/30/20 07:09 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
I wouldn't be upset if Tammy Ducktape got the call but Warren is still my favorite.

Pero, I figured this election was in the bag long ago. I'm usually wrong about these things but Trump seems to just be digging himself deeper and deeper into a hole he can never climb out of.

It has nothing to do with ideology and everything to do with idiocy.
I'm strictly a numbers guy, crunch them and go by what they tell me. I leave my heart and feelings out of it when it comes to doing my forecast. I also watch independents much more than either major party's base. Independents usually decide close election. If the election is going to be a landslide, independents are always on the side of the landslider by a huge margin.

Without winning independents by an average of 12 points in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida, Trump wouldn't have become president. Biden has been either even or up by a couple among independents in all those states until this last month. Now Biden has increased those leads between 5-8 points among independents. Even in my home state of Georgia, Biden has a lead among independents which puts Georgia in play.

Of course all of this is as of today. The way I tabulate it, if the election was held today, it's Biden 352-186 in the electoral college along with winning the popular vote by 10 points. Trump is doing an excellent job of turning red states blue which includes a few senate races. I'd say the Democrats pick up between 5-8 senate seats, but the House remains pretty stable with a seat or two going either way. The house staying basically the same is due to the Democrats having more seats in what I describe as at risk of switching/competitive seats vs. the GOP. The GOP lost most of their competitive/at risk of switching seats in 2018.

Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/01/20 12:09 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I really think if he can hang in there for the election, he could have the lowest electoral college vote total ever.

Unlikely. In 1984 Reagan won everything except Minnesota and DC, which I believe is the biggest electoral win.

I think something like the 1964 results when Goldwater took just Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina is more likely, though the states will probably be: Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia and South Carolina.

Though Trump’s ability to destroy things should not be underrated, he might even manage to kill or impoverish enough people that even the zombies lose faith in him.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/01/20 12:44 AM
1984 it was Reagan 525-13, Nixon in 1972 came close 520-17. Nixon lost Massachusetts and D.C.

You forgot the mountain states, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska. The fact that Biden now has a two point lead in Georgia and is tied with Trump in Texas, to use an old G.H.W. Bush phrase, Trump is in deep doo doo.
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/01/20 01:06 AM
You’re right, I did forget the mountain states and the Dakotas.

Montana might even be in play. And who knows, even Utah if Romney becomes a never-Trumper and actively campaigns against him.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/20 04:03 PM
Here's another interesting article. Myself being one of those who voted against both Trump and Hillary in 2016 that is supporting Joe Biden this time. I'm not alone.

"They Voted Third Party in 2016, but Now They've Settled on Biden"

https://news.yahoo.com/voted-third-party-2016-now-121228659.html

There were 9 million voters who cast a ballot for a third party candidate in 2016, 6% of the electorate who were so disgusted with their choices of Hillary Clinton and Trump, they were more than willing to vote for just a third name on the ballot even though they knew that third name had no chance of winning.

You want to compare the third party vote to past elections, 6% in 2016, 1.5% in 2012, 1.2% in 2008 and 1.0% in 2004.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/20 06:02 PM

Quote
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Biden earning 50% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Trump’s 40%. Six percent (6%) remain undecided.

- Rasmussen Reports 07/08/20

Sounds like it's going to be quite the humiliating shellacking for Trump. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/20 06:40 PM
Here's another, talking about Rasmussen.

"Trump’s Opponent Not Important to Most Anti-Trump Voters"

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...urce=criticalimpact&utm_medium=email

I've seen where even Republicans are saying they would vote for a tuna fish sandwich, over Trump. Makes sense: A tuna fish sandwich wouldn't do anything good, but at least it wouldn't do all the positively evil stuff Trump has done.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/08/20 09:52 PM
It has been expressed that as many as 15% of Republicans would vote for Biden. I've been going over the numbers. Which I would say that was completely wrong. Right now 91% of Republicans plan on voting for Trump, 4% for Biden. Question 60.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k05rp8ded6/econTabReport.pdf

Back in 2016 88% of Republicans voted for Trump, 8% for Hillary.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

That's pretty far away from the expressed 15%. So it was on to party affiliation. Back in November 2016 Republicans made up 27% of the electorate, Democrats 32%, Independents 37%. Today the figures are Republicans 25%, Democrats 32%, independents 40%.

So what I see happening is the anti-Trump Republicans have moved over into the independent column, they'd didn't become Democrats. That could explain the rise from 88% to 91%, the drop in party affiliation. Some Republican anti-Trumpers becoming independents, the pro-Trumpers remaining Republican.

It'll take a bit more research, but taking the numbers at face value, this seems to be the case.
Hilarious news: There is a lot of controversy about mail ballots in Iowa. It turns out the Board of Elections in Blue counties is going to send every registered voter a mail ballot. In Red counties, the local Board of Elections will not. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!

Of course the same problem exists everywhere: Elderly people generally have voted for Trump, and are going to be afraid to go to polls and stand in line. In fact, they may not even be able to stand in line for hours. So they either go to polls but have to give up and go home (or to the ER), or they never even try to vote. So I suspect Trump's anti-mail ballot campaign is going to backfire bigtime.

Likewise the "closing polls" voter suppression strategy: Send everyone to a few polls to wait in line and only the young and healthy will vote. As usual, Trump's fear of something (People of Color voting) leads him to a "solution" that works against him. He may be evil, but at least he is an idiot!
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/20 01:14 AM
Like Krugman said years ago: The Trump administration is malevolence tempered by incompetence.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/10/20 03:20 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Hilarious news: There is a lot of controversy about mail ballots in Iowa. It turns out the Board of Elections in Blue counties is going to send every registered voter a mail ballot. In Red counties, the local Board of Elections will not. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot!
Oh well...Joni Earnst needed to go anyway. smile
So I see Trump is raising trial balloons to see how a pardon for Roger Stone goes over. I bet his lawyers are begging him NOT to do it. If Stone accepted such a pardon, it would mean he has to admit guilt. Then he has no claim on a Fifth Amendment right to refuse to testify about his crimes. If he did commit those crimes, it implicates Trump as an unindicted co-conspirator. He could be the star witness at Trump's trial after January.

It's a terrible idea to pardon your fellow conspirators. Let's hope he's stupid enough to do it.
The Supreme Court rulings are huge wins for the Rule of Law, and the fact that "Trump's Judges" joined the majority and ruled against his crazy legal theory of total immunity is very important: It really means that Trump does not have any Justices on the Supreme Court who feel obligated to serve him over the Law and the Constitution. He may have a conservative majority on the court, but when he just makes up ridiculous crap, he's going to lose.

Specifically, they said that the New York State prosecutor can subpoena anything needed for his criminal case with regard to money laundering charges in the payoff to Stormy Daniels. Trump cannot use a presidential pardon, executive privilege, or Presidential immunity to evade state subpoenas or even state charges. I expect state prosecutors to act quickly. They also said that Congress has the right to subpoena within reasonable limits. (They have actually already met those requirements.) So access to his taxes and accounting data should move quickly through the lower courts.
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/11/20 03:38 AM
It’s really beginning to look like Gorsuch is an actual judge.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/11/20 12:31 PM
Here's another interesting article on some 2016 Trump voters who changed their minds.

"Ashamed' Trump 2016 Voters Explain Why They’re Ditching The President"

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/republicans-change-mind-trump-ad-070157598.html

I was one of 9 million third party voters in 2016 voting against both Trump and Hillary Clinton. If that election were held today, I'd still vote against both. But in 2020, Hillary isn't opposing Trump, Biden is. So Old Joe is my man. Had Biden ran against Trump in 2016, I think at least half of those 9 million voters who were so disgusted with their choice of candidates that they decided to vote for an unknown third name on the ballot instead of choosing between two evils or voting for the major party candidate they least wanted to lose, not win, but least wanted to lose. That they would have voted for Biden in 2016, at least half if not more.

Bottom line, Candidates matter. The good things is that it seems the Democrats have learned that lesson from 2016. At least this time around.
Quote
It’s really beginning to look like Gorsuch is an actual judge.

I've been saying that for a while. Kavanaugh is a drunk, but at times he is a judge, too. Trump thought he nominated judges who would always support him. Surprise! He should have looked harder. Naomi Roa seems to be one of the few "Trump judges". I wonder what she'll do after Trump is gone. Will she keep on being highly partisan? Will she quit when every decision she makes is outvoted or overturned?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/20 12:17 AM
As an old foggie, I have seen when those up for reelection in congress try to separate or distant themselves from the president in order to give one a better chance at reelection, it doesn't work.

"Republicans are really fed up': GOP increasingly splits with Trump as his polls drag"

https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-really-fed-gop-increasingly-100032722.html

One usually loses some support from those voters who are loyal to the president, it also doesn't help gain votes from independents. The opposite party folks aren't going to vote for you anyway.

Bottom line, if you're going to get buried by supporting your president, you're still going to get buried by trying to distant yourself from your president. What this all tells me, the Republicans know they're in deep doo doo when it comes to November.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/20 02:20 PM
This from Rasmussen.

"The new survey finds Trump with 74% of the Republican vote. Biden has the support of 79% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, it’s Biden 48%, Trump 36%."

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...urce=criticalimpact&utm_medium=email

Going by history, the percentage of Republicans and of Democrats who are saying they'll vote for their candidate is very low. By November, those percentages will be up to their historical average of 90%. But what stands out is the independents, the non-affiliated voters as Rasmussen puts it. 48-36% in favor of Biden. The basement strategy for Biden while letting Trump be Trump is working just fine, especially among independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated. Don't interrupt or stop you opponent when he's going down hill. Let him go.

History
89% of Democrats voted for Hillary in 2016, 92% for Obama in 2012. 89% for Obama in 2008, 89% for Kerry in 2004, 87% for Gore in 2000.
88% of Republicans voted for Trump in 2016, 93% for Romney in 2012, 90% for McCain in 2008, 93% for Bush 2004, 91% for Bush in 2000.

I'll stop there as Perot, a well financed third party candidate drew plenty of votes from both parties in 1992 and 1996. So you can see the historical average of roughly 90% of the two major parties voting for their candidates. I don't expect that to change in 2020.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/20 04:01 PM
Quote
Republicans know they're in deep doo doo when it comes to November.
And they've no one to blame but themselves. They've had many many opportunities to break from Trump. I'm betting that Mitt Romney will be handily re-elected. Others will struggle...many will fall.

Every four years, on one day only, public opinion matters.

Obama faced more opposition from congressional Democrats than Trump has faced from his cowardly minions. He has been given free reign by congressional partisans in the hopes that their draconian policies would be driven forward by his non-traditional style of leadership.

Looks like those hopes are going to be relegated to the ashbin of history along with their careers.

Will we see the end of the filibuster in the first 100 days?

McConnell has warned Democrats not to do it!
Quote
along with their careers

If I was a congressional Republican, I wouldn't be worried about my future career as much as my future being alive. Have you been watching the news? Wisconsin GOP Rep. Grothman suffered a coughing fit that briefly stopped his speech at the Republican Party of Wisconsin State Convention. Hardly a mask in sight.

Trump rallies and the GOP convention will go down in history as mass extinction events. Most GOP senators are in the high mortality categories, too.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/20 10:15 PM
"The New York Times
Georgia. Ohio. Texas. Democrats Tell Biden to Go Big (He's Being Cautious)."

http://readerrant.capitolhillblue.c...;Main=18795&Number=327258#Post327258

As well he should be at this point in time. Hillary campaign strategy back in 2016 was to get more electoral votes than Obama did. Thus she spent way too much time, energy and money trying to win Georgia, Arizona and Utah. She ignored the so called blue wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Perhaps she thought she had those states in the bag.

She ended up not only losing Georgia, Arizona and Utah, but Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as well. I'd remind Biden that the goal is to get to 270, anything extra is icing on the cake.

The article talks about Texas, Ohio and Georgia. Go after Ohio, its a pure swing state where both parties strength is pretty much even. I'd forget Texas and Georgia, at least for now. While both states looks winnable, they also look winnable to Hillary in 2016.

I'd concentrate on making sure Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania return to being part of that blue wall. Florida and Ohio would be next on my list. But only when I secured Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which would put Biden over 270. Ohio and Florida are must campaign stops and a must to try to win. Letting Georgia and Texas stew some, seems wise to me. That is if one doesn't want to make the same mistake Hillary did. You're elected president if the count is 270-268 just as if the count was 500-38.

But I'm not an advisor to Biden, so carry on Joe.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/12/20 10:26 PM
I think the filibuster is a goner also. That will let the Democrats who should control not only the presidency, but the House and Senate to pass whatever legislation they want. The key words, phrase is they want.

They'll over do it letting the GOP win back the House in 2022. We're in for a wild ride from now forward. Extreme lurches left, followed by extreme lurches right when most Americans are searching for a happy medium. The middle way.

Neither party offers that. This is why we seen the rise in independents from 30% of the electorate in 2006 to 40% in 2020. This is why both major parties are shrinking, The Democrats from 38% in 2006 down to 31% today while the GOP has shrunk from 31% down to 27%.

56% of all Americans have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party only to be outdone by 61% having an unfavorable view of the GOP. The average American don't like either one. But for 2020, the Democratic Party is the lesser of the disliked parties, thus they'll probably win big. In 2022 as the Democrats pass their agenda, not Americas, they'll become the most disliked party and thus my prediction, the GOP retakes the House.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/13/20 12:42 AM
So you think uber centrist Joe Biden is gonna suddenly become a socialist and seize the means of production? He doesn't even want M4A!
Maybe we should avoid all that swingy right left stuff and just let Trump be president for life?

Again, please describe what you are afraid Democrats will do, and what this extreme leftist swing is gonna look like?

Donald Trump is describing today's Democratic Party as the "far left" and it sounds like you agree with him.

Democrats are the middle ground that Americans are searching for.

I am part of the far left. And brother let me tell ya...I aint no democrat.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/13/20 01:03 PM
I don't know what they'll do. I like Biden and always have from him being a senator to VP. What attracts me to Joe is as a senator he was always willing to work across the aisle, to come up with compromises when possible. It wasn't always possible, but at least he tried. It was Biden working with McConnell that came up with the deal to end the government shutdown over the debt ceiling I believe it was.

My point is when one party controls all three, the presidency, the house, the senate especially with the filibuster about to be gone, they'll over reach. On what, I don't know. But you watch, they'll make this fast growing group of voters, independents angry at them. It almost, I said almost always happens. It has since 1994 wen we crossed a threshold of some type.

That was when the Democrats hold on the house, they're control of it was stopped at 40 straight years and 58 out of the last 62 going back to the 1932 election. By the 90's, both parties had shed their unwanted wings of southern conservatives and Rockefeller liberal Republicans of the northeast. Then each began the process of getting rid of their moderates. For the Democrats, it was the blue dogs. Biden is probably one of a very few moderates left.

I suppose for someone on the far left, the Democrats do look like a moderate party the same as for someone on the very far right thinks the GOP is a moderate party. But what about those in the middle? Not far left nor far right, for them it looks like both major parties have lost their senses as both continue to move further left and further right with just the hard core being left in each party.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/13/20 06:14 PM
That's a good point. I see politics through a Marxist lens. A game being played out exactly as Marx predicts. And as frustrating as Lenin learned. In that theater Stalin was their Trump. The Wiemar's had their Hitler. Some guy always comes along to f*ck things up.

But I'm also a realist...we got Joe Biden we gotta work with Joe Biden.

He literally might be the best guy for the job at this time in history.
Someone to tone down the rhetoric and put things back together.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/14/20 12:01 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
That's a good point. I see politics through a Marxist lens. A game being played out exactly as Marx predicts. And as frustrating as Lenin learned. In that theater Stalin was their Trump. The Wiemar's had their Hitler. Some guy always comes along to f*ck things up.

But I'm also a realist...we got Joe Biden we gotta work with Joe Biden.

He literally might be the best guy for the job at this time in history.
Someone to tone down the rhetoric and put things back together.

He just might be. Right now I think we're, at least those of us somewhere in the middle, in-between where the two major parties are politically these days, we want a return to saner times, a return to normalcy. Just get this schoolyard bully with his childish antics and behavior out of the White House.

Joe Biden seems to be the only adult in the room. The best hope. At this time in 2016 we had 15% of the electorate choosing or saying they would vote third party in November. That number is down to 4% today. In other words a lot of those third party voters in 2016 have come in on the side of Biden raising his lead from 5 points up to 9 points over the last three weeks. Trump's perceived ineptness on handling the CoronaVirus along with his distasteful personality have moved those out of the third party column into Biden's. The only adult who seems better equipped to handle the situation.

It's not that Republicans are deserting Trump, at least not yet. 91% say they'll vote for Trump. 88% did so back in 2016. It's those who voted third party angry as all get out at the choices provided in 2016 by both major parties, they have decided to enter back into the fray and or choose a horse in the race this time. Not to vent their frustrations and anger at who the two major parties choose. We're talking some 9 million voters, no small group.

They're motto, ADULT 2020.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/20 01:53 PM
Three interesting comparisons, mid March to mid July on Trump.

Overall job approval, mid March 47.4% approve, mid July 41.4% approval

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Trump's approval of his handling of the CoronaVirus, March 50.6%, July 39.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

Head to head matchup, mid March Biden 50.7% Trump 44.3%, Mid July Biden 49.4%, Trump 40.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Trump's numbers or approval over all has dropped 6 points, his handling of the Virus dropped 11 points while those planning on voting for him in November dropped 3 points along with Trump falling from 6 points behind Biden to a deficit of 9 points.

All positive numbers for Biden and the Democrats. But what goes unnoticed is those planning to vote for Biden in November has also dropped a point and a half. Which means around 5% of those who had decided to vote for either candidate back in March now have moved into the undecided column. Not unusual, as folks reconsider who they'll vote for all the time. But it is interesting that the undecided's have grown from 6% in March up to a bit over 10% in July.

Having 10% of the electorate or even a bit more in the undecided column prior to the start of the official campaign season on 1 Sep is normal. Having only 6% was unusually low for March. The undecided's will usually begin coming off the fence sometime in October. So what this tells me, 2020 will be more of a normal election than 2016. 2016 was very unique with no historical precedence.

For Biden and the democrats, normal is good. As normal as we can get with the CoronaVirus hanging over our heads.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/20 01:54 PM
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/20 05:32 PM
Sorry. Too many, seemingly endless, still shots of that smug, arrogant, supercilious orange-tinted mug. I couldn’t make it all the way through. Music was pretty good though.
November will be the perfect storm for Trump. We will either have more lockdowns or WAY more dead. Probably a mix of both. And the most dead will be in states that are Republican strongholds, because they resist the public health measures that save lives, the most. No vaccines will be available yet, or will be highly restricted to select groups. That's going to cause a lot of friction.

So this will be anything but a "normal election". Trump announcing he might not cooperate with orderly succession is not going to help him, either. I don't know how many Independents favor lifetime dictatorship, but it can't be many.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/20 07:45 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...I don't know how many Independents favor lifetime dictatorship, but it can't be many.
We'll have to check-in with perotista on that one. coffee
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/20 11:31 PM

I was thinking today, that if Trump really had a chance for re-election, posters like MA_Republican would be here singing Trump's praises. But he's not - which makes me believe that Trump truly is one and done just like GHWBush. MA_Republican is a preverbal canary in a coal mine for me in that regard.

smile

...now whether Trump leaves peacefully is another issue. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/19/20 11:56 PM

Kanye hasn't quit the race. He never left. Hmm


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 12:35 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...I don't know how many Independents favor lifetime dictatorship, but it can't be many.
We'll have to check-in with perotista on that one. coffee

That question as far as I know has never been asked of independents. I receive around 10 major polls every week from major polling firms, I've never seen that question.

I can tell you this, not many independents are fixated on the November election as of yet. That's normal for any election this far out. Although they express their view of like, dislike of Trump. YouGov asks that question. According to them as of 14 July 9% of independents like Trump a lot, 12% like Trump somewhat, 9% dislike him somewhat and 41% dislike him a lot, question 83.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/hpupr0zhkl/econTabReport.pdf

For comparison, Biden, Question 92. Biden Likability - Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like or dislike Joe Biden as a person? 9% of independents like him a lot, 19% like Biden somewhat, 9% dislike Biden somewhat, 21% dislike Biden a lot. Total likes are close between both Biden and Trump with Biden having a slight edge. But in dislikes, the dislike a lot column, Biden is much lower with 21% vs. trump 41%.

That last one means a lot as voters to include independents usually don't vote for someone they dislike. Now I haven't seen a question as of yet about those voters who disliked both candidates as was published by Gallup in 2016. But I think that is coming. But like I said, it's early, most independents haven't tuned into the presidential election yet. Way too many other things going on. It usually isn't until around the first part of October that independents start paying attention. In a normal year.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 12:54 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
I was thinking today, that if Trump really had a chance for re-election, posters like MA_Republican would be here singing Trump's praises. But he's not - which makes me believe that Trump truly is one and done just like GHWBush. MA_Republican is a preverbal canary in a coal mine for me in that regard.

smile

...now whether Trump leaves peacefully is another issue. Hmm

G.H.W.Bush is unique. Had that election been held in April/May of 1992 he would have been a landslide winner. The average of polls during that time show Bush 44%, Bill Clinton 25%, Ross Perot 24%. It wasn't until July after Perot had withdrawn and before he reentered it at the end of September that Bill took the lead. A lead he would never relinquish.

Bush's main problem was he campaigned like he didn't care if he won or lost. That is until the last two weeks of the campaign. For ineptness, Bush's and Hillary's campaign are right up there at the top. Who's going to vote for someone who doesn't care if he wins or loses?

Now Bush did narrow Bill Clinton's 12 point lead two weeks out to losing by 6 in the general. Perot also had reentered by that time.

One should also note that Bush was so popular prior to the primaries that all the big name democrats decided not to run in 1992 letting a little known Arkansas Governor win their nomination. Until April/May 1992 most Democrats thought they were in for a whipping. It was independents that gave Bill his win, 43% of independents voted for Bill, 30% for Perot and 28% for Bush. Bush's lackadaisical and I don't care campaign doomed him.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 01:03 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by pdx rick
I was thinking today, that if Trump really had a chance for re-election, posters like MA_Republican would be here singing Trump's praises. But he's not - which makes me believe that Trump truly is one and done just like GHWBush. MA_Republican is a preverbal canary in a coal mine for me in that regard.

smile

...now whether Trump leaves peacefully is another issue. Hmm

G.H.W.Bush is unique.
Apparently, Trump is going to be "unique" too. coffee
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 03:13 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
One should also note that Bush was so popular prior to the primaries that all the big name democrats decided not to run in 1992 letting a little known Arkansas Governor win their nomination. Until April/May 1992 most Democrats thought they were in for a whipping. It was independents that gave Bill his win, 43% of independents voted for Bill, 30% for Perot and 28% for Bush. Bush's lackadaisical and I don't care campaign doomed him.
Bush, Senior, really was a "man out of his time". I liked him (the last Republican presidential candidate I voted for), even though he allowed his domestic policy to be dictated by party leadership - a huge failure on his part. His greatest failure, in my book, though, was getting advice from Bill Barr to pardon the Iran-contra miscreants. He would have been drawn into the scandal, of course, but I think he would have weathered it, as he was, at bottom, an honorable man. It was the acceptance of "voodoo"/Republican economics, despite his better senses, that doomed him.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 04:40 PM

Wasn't GHWBush knee-deep in the Iran/Contra scandal himself? Hmm
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 05:07 PM
Knee deep? No. Like Jesus he walked above the mire. He was an aristocrat, above the fray, so to speak.

"A man out of his time"

Indeed, the age of the aristocrat has passed. In their place we have billionaire fascists.

One of them resides on Pennsylvania Ave right now.

But not for long...A unionist is about to defeat him. An entirely different set of corrupt factions.

Ma Republican has said on several occasions that Trump is "not his cup of tea" but he is an unapologetic partisan and a conservative. He loves to see Democrats crash and burn.

If Trump wins re-election I can guarantee you that our colleague in Massachusetts will drop by to laugh at us. (If he still lives)
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 06:05 PM
I think breaking his "No New Taxes," pledge is what doom Bush. But like everything else, it wasn't just one thing, That to me was the main thing, but everything else added to it, that was too much for Bush. It was independents that sent the elder Bush down to his defeat. After receiving 57% of the independent vote in 1988, Bush dropped down to just 28% in a three candidate race. It's interesting to note that 21% of Republicans deserted Bush and voted for Perot, only 15% of the Democrats deserted Bill Clinton by voting for Perot.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/20/20 07:14 PM
I don't think any of my favorites are unadulterated goodness and light. All are human. But, Republicans have been a disaster for over 50 years. Democrats, while having their own problems (especially in the 1970s), never held a candle to the corruption of the GOP. I think the fundamental issue, as this thread notes, is that, at bottom, their driving philosophy is contrary to good governance. It has been getting worse and worse since Reagan, until we finally got Trump, but he is a man OF his time... or the GOP's time. It is time to allow the GOP to fade into irrelevancy, like the Whigs before them.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/20 01:31 AM
Quote
I think breaking his "No New Taxes," pledge is what doom Bush.

Not surprising, left leaners trend towards more taxation so "no new taxes" is a bit of an insult to them. A slight leftward lean is all that differentiates Democrats from Republicans and the "independents" are about as equally divided ideologically as their partisan counterparts.

If the failure to uphold a promise of "no new taxes" was a trigger issue among right leaning independents then they would be pissed off enough to come out in slightly higher numbers against the failing executive.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/20 01:44 PM
Won't happen, parties always adjust to huge losses or it might be the party who just had a huge landslide win just gets over confident thinking the people as a whole love them when they just really disliked the other guy.

Goldwater was repudiated to a tune of a 61-39 win for LBJ in 1964, the Republicans were down to just 140 House seats, 295 for the Democrats along with 68 Democratic Senators to 32 for the Republicans. 1966 saw the GOP gain 47 house seats back and in 1968 Nixon had been elected president, the Republicans had gained 10 senate seats to 42 and now had 192 house seats.

That's a long time ago, I know. Different political era without the polarization and without the ultra high partisanship of today. The rejection of a presidential candidate doesn't equate to the destruction of that candidate's political party.

The rejection of Trump in my opinion began the day after he took office which lead to the blue wave of 2018 and unless something changes, something happens drastically, a major unforeseen event or happening, the Republicans are in for another huge defeat in 2020. But the rejection of Trump won't equate to the demise of the Republican Party much like what happened back in 1964 through 1968.

Gallup and Pew Research never asked about political party favorability back then, but they do now. But they did keep track of party affiliation. Party affiliation in 1964 was 51% Democratic, 25% Republican. By 1968 it was 42% Democratic, 27% Republican. In 2016 when Trump won party affiliation was 36% Democratic, 30% Republican and today it's or as of 4 June 2020 31% Democrat, 25% Republican, 40% independent.

The average political party favorable's is Democrats 30% favorable, 52% unfavorable. Republicans 24% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Neither major party is liked or seen in a favorable light. But the Democratic Party at the moment is seen more favorable and disliked less by America as a whole than the GOP which probably will equate into a huge win come November.

One reason for this is most Americans don't think either party represents them anymore. Each party has it's own agenda which isn't seen as America's agenda. It's very hard for the hard core partisans, member of each major party to see this. Voting for the least worst, the lesser of two evils, the party, candidates you want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least have become common place. Trump will be rejected this November, I'm sure of that. But the election results will be just that, a rejection of Trump much like 1964 was a rejection of Goldwater. But the incoming blue wave that I see coming isn't an endorsement of the Democrats or their party. It's a rejection of Trump and the GOP. It's not a mandate for Democratic Party agenda either. It's a rejection of Trump.

This the Democrats will fail to recognize. Hence my prediction about the house in 2022. But time will tell.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/21/20 01:57 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
I think breaking his "No New Taxes," pledge is what doom Bush.

Not surprising, left leaners trend towards more taxation so "no new taxes" is a bit of an insult to them. A slight leftward lean is all that differentiates Democrats from Republicans and the "independents" are about as equally divided ideologically as their partisan counterparts.

If the failure to uphold a promise of "no new taxes" was a trigger issue among right leaning independents then they would be pissed off enough to come out in slightly higher numbers against the failing executive.

Which they did. Back in those days independents weren't broke down into independents lean Democratic, independents lean Republican and pure or true independents with no leans as Gallup does today.

So we'll have to take independents as a whole for 1988 and 1992. Bush won independents 57-43 over Dukakis, but lost them to Bill Clinton in 1992 42-28 with Perot getting 30% of the independent vote. Putting Perot aside, Bush won independents by 14 points in 1988, lost them by 14 points in 1992 a swing of 28 points. That does show you how finicky independents can be. How huge swings among the independent voter can take place in a span of just four years. That can happen in two if we look at 2016 where Trump won independents 46-42 a plus 4 to 2018 when independents voted for the democratic congressional candidates 54-42 over the Republicans. That a plus 4 to a minus 12 or a swing of 16 points in just 2 years. These swings can be huge and they can decide elections.

I think one needs to remember that independents aren't loyal to either party and they don't adopt either party's agenda. If they did, they wouldn't be independents. They can also change their votes on a whim. It doesn't take much.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/25/20 09:08 AM
Someone said Biden should do an ad agreeing to take a cognitive assessment test if Trump will take the SAT.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/25/20 06:48 PM

Polls ar showing that a growing number of Republicans and conservatives and independent-leaning conservatives, who are done with Trump.

smile

Joe Biden is not sexy politically and not enough to be excited about, but 2020 voters are very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. laugh

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/25/20 08:04 PM
When Hillary lost the polls said she was going to win! The American voting public are pesky and can change their minds on a dime. All the pro-dem results are comforting but, until the election is called I remain concerned. Given the antics of Trump I won't be happy until a Dem takes the oath and moves into the white house. There is also the pile of things the Republicans have done to suppress the vote as well. Remember, it wasn't a Democrat that got caught messing with the votes. It was a Republican. They have a LOT more experience at this kind of stuff than the Democrats. Hopefully, for instance, the Democratic party is going to have people in every voting place watching stuff like a hawk as well.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 12:44 AM
Originally Posted by jgw
When Hillary lost the polls said she was going to win! The American voting public are pesky and can change their minds on a dime. All the pro-dem results are comforting but, until the election is called I remain concerned. Given the antics of Trump I won't be happy until a Dem takes the oath and moves into the white house. There is also the pile of things the Republicans have done to suppress the vote as well. Remember, it wasn't a Democrat that got caught messing with the votes. It was a Republican. They have a LOT more experience at this kind of stuff than the Democrats. Hopefully, for instance, the Democratic party is going to have people in every voting place watching stuff like a hawk as well.

Not really. What the national polls showed was Hillary up 3.3 points, she won by 2.1 points. Now remember there's a margin of error here of plus or minus 3 points. Basically all national polls were predicting Hillary winning the popular vote somewhere between 0.3 to 6.3 points. Her 2.1 win was well within that margin of error.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

The polls were predicting a popular vote win which Hillary did.

This was RCP's electoral college scoreboard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

with 171 electoral in their tossup column, that's far from predicting a Hillary win. Granted, the pundits were predicting a Hillary win, some by exaggerated margins. But where were they getting their information from? Then again, when I see polls that are saying Hillary will win the national popular vote by 3-4 points, I wouldn't take too close a look at each state. It was probably assumptions, but you know what they say about assuming.

Of the late polls in Pennsylvania, Trafalgar had Trump winning by 1, Harper had it tied with Morning Call favoring Clinton by 6. But Morning Call had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 points. That gave them a lot of leeway.

Michigan, Trafalgar had Trump winning by 2, Gravis had Hillary by 5, the Detroit free press, Hillary by 4.

Wisconsin, there were no recent polls taken in November, just the latter part of October which made them useless. I can easily understand the pundits and prognosticators forecasting a Hillary win. I did also in my forecast. I went to bed around 10PM because I knew Hillary would win as I had resigned myself to at least 4 years of her. I was in shock when I woke up the next morning I couldn't believe it.

I knew Pennsylvania and Michigan were pure tossups. But I had given them to Hillary based only on those states voting history. The same with Wisconsin as I had nothing new to go on. Just some old polls more than a week old. Iowa also surprised me as Iowa had a long history also of voting Democratic in presidential elections.

I suppose the bottom line is the national polls were predicting Hillary would win the national popular vote. But we, even the pundits forgot the winner is determined in the electoral college. Me, I remembered that, but I placed 4 tossup states in the wrong column.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 01:00 AM
Remember the little dust up between the New York Times and Nate Silver?

The Times had boldly declared Hillary 20 points or more ahead and was heading for an easy victory. Nate said nope. Trump can still win...

Trump can win this time too.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 03:27 AM
Hillary never lead by 20 points. Her biggest lead was by 7.1 points on 18 Oct. Although she maintained the lead from 1 Aug on. Trump narrowed that lead from 7.1 to 1.9 points on 1 Nov which Hillary finally won the popular vote by 2.1%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Biden's lead today is bigger than any lead Hillary ever had at 8.7 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

But I do agree, it is far from over. On 25 July 2016 Hillary had an 0.4 of a point lead in the polls vs. Biden's 8.7. Since 1952 only one presidential candidate with a lead of more than 6 points at the end of July has lost. Micheal Dukakis in 1988. Now if you go back 4 more years to 1948, that is then 2 presidential candidates with Thomas Dewey joining Dukakis. Dewey had an 11 point lead over Truman at the end of July, Dukakis an amazing 17 point lead over Bush. So it can happen. But polling was in its infancy back in 1948, more tuned in in 1988. historical polling only goes back to 1936, so you have 2 since then. Dukakis continued to fall, at the end of August his lead was 7 points, at the end of September Bush had taken a 5 point lead, expanded it to 10 points at the end of October before winning by 8.

If I were a democrat, I'd be feeling pretty good right about now. Biden leads in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa. Is within one point in Texas and Georgia of all places. All states Trump won in 2016.

But all it takes is one unforeseen event, happening to upset the apple cart, to turn an election on its ear. The thing is Trump was always within easy striking distance. 5 points or less most of the campaign. Within 5 points means the race is very competitive.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 03:45 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Hillary never lead by 20 points. Her biggest lead was by 7.1 points on 18 Oct...
James Comey's letter to Congress was October 28, 2016. Coincidence? I think not. Hmm
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 12:58 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Hillary never lead by 20 points. Her biggest lead was by 7.1 points on 18 Oct...
James Comey's letter to Congress was October 28, 2016. Coincidence? I think not. Hmm

I've always been of the opinion that the e-mail scandal was already baked in. Although I wouldn't rule it out. Hillary's 7.1 point lead had already begun to fall prior to the letters release had already fallen to 3.9 on the 28th of October. The trend was already favoring Trump.

It's interesting that on the 28th you still had 12% of the electorate either undecided or saying they were going to vote third party, Johnson and or Stein. that was 7% saying voting third party, 5% still undecided. So it's possible it did influence that small portion what was still undecided. There's not enough information available to either confirm that or to deny it.

I have some national figures about those who made up their minds in the last week, but they're basically useless since the election was decided in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Nationally it was 43% Clinton, 43% Trump 14% third party or no answer.

In my state data, Wisconsin only has for the last month, useless for figuring out the last week or since 28 Oct. Pennsylvania has a bunch of N/A's for the last week and Michigan is the lone exception. Those voters who made up their minds in the last week in Michigan went to Trump 50-39 over Clinton with the rest voting third party.

Bottom line, there isn't enough hard evidence or numbers available to either confirm or deny the effect of Comey's letter. Trump could have lost Michigan and still won in the electoral college, so Michigan is useless. The big state is Pennsylvania with all its N/A's. If you go by the existing Trend and the national numbers, one would have to say no. If one goes by Michigan, then the answer is yes. So it's an unknown factor either way or no factor at all. I can't help you.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 03:07 PM
Quote
If I were a democrat, I'd be feeling pretty good right about now.
I haven't been a Democrat for 50 years and I am still uneasy.

The numbers don't characterize the psychological nature and proclivities of Mr Trump. He is a narcissist. He has already for a second time in as many elections stated he will wait and see how he will act on the results. Narcissists see themselves as winners in a delusion of their own making. He is in a position to make that happen. In recent report of possible election scenarios where Mr Trump refuses to leave the WH, it is clear he is a danger to democracy.

We have always depended on people doing the right thing and voluntarily stepping down when the results were in. But this person has no inkling what the right thing is, unless it coincides with his delusion. Democrat pundits keep talking about blowouts. I don't think it matters what the results are if Mr Trump refuses to leave the W. What are you and any group of people or the courts or Congress going to do .... use harsh language to force him to leave?

If he physically barricades himself in the WH, surrounded by a cadre of loyal military personnel, who will physically remove him. If anyone tries it could be and may well be a coup. Mr Trump is not trustworthy to do the right thing and I think every citizen in America should be worried and concerned of the possibility.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 03:55 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I've always been of the opinion that the e-mail scandal was already baked in. Although I wouldn't rule it out. Hillary's 7.1 point lead had already begun to fall prior to the letters release had already fallen to 3.9 on the 28th of October. The trend was already favoring Trump.

It's interesting that on the 28th you still had 12% of the electorate either undecided or saying they were going to vote third party, Johnson and or Stein. that was 7% saying voting third party, 5% still undecided. So it's possible it did influence that small portion what was still undecided. There's not enough information available to either confirm that or to deny it.

I have some national figures about those who made up their minds in the last week, but they're basically useless since the election was decided in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Nationally it was 43% Clinton, 43% Trump 14% third party or no answer.

In my state data, Wisconsin only has for the last month, useless for figuring out the last week or since 28 Oct. Pennsylvania has a bunch of N/A's for the last week and Michigan is the lone exception. Those voters who made up their minds in the last week in Michigan went to Trump 50-39 over Clinton with the rest voting third party.

Bottom line, there isn't enough hard evidence or numbers available to either confirm or deny the effect of Comey's letter. Trump could have lost Michigan and still won in the electoral college, so Michigan is useless. The big state is Pennsylvania with all its N/A's. If you go by the existing Trend and the national numbers, one would have to say no. If one goes by Michigan, then the answer is yes. So it's an unknown factor either way or no factor at all. I can't help you.
The emails were released in July/August in 2016. The James Comey incident to which I am referring is the 'reopening' of the investigation announcement just 7 days prior the election. THAT action by James Comey that close to the election had a negative effect her ability to be elected POTUS.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 04:56 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
I've always been of the opinion that the e-mail scandal was already baked in. Although I wouldn't rule it out. Hillary's 7.1 point lead had already begun to fall prior to the letters release had already fallen to 3.9 on the 28th of October. The trend was already favoring Trump.

It's interesting that on the 28th you still had 12% of the electorate either undecided or saying they were going to vote third party, Johnson and or Stein. that was 7% saying voting third party, 5% still undecided. So it's possible it did influence that small portion what was still undecided. There's not enough information available to either confirm that or to deny it.

I have some national figures about those who made up their minds in the last week, but they're basically useless since the election was decided in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Nationally it was 43% Clinton, 43% Trump 14% third party or no answer.

In my state data, Wisconsin only has for the last month, useless for figuring out the last week or since 28 Oct. Pennsylvania has a bunch of N/A's for the last week and Michigan is the lone exception. Those voters who made up their minds in the last week in Michigan went to Trump 50-39 over Clinton with the rest voting third party.

Bottom line, there isn't enough hard evidence or numbers available to either confirm or deny the effect of Comey's letter. Trump could have lost Michigan and still won in the electoral college, so Michigan is useless. The big state is Pennsylvania with all its N/A's. If you go by the existing Trend and the national numbers, one would have to say no. If one goes by Michigan, then the answer is yes. So it's an unknown factor either way or no factor at all. I can't help you.
The emails were released in July/August in 2016. The James Comey incident to which I am referring is the 'reopening' of the investigation announcement just 7 days prior the election. THAT action by James Comey that close to the election had a negative effect her ability to be elected POTUS.
That's why I gave you pre-28 Oct numbers vs. Post 28 Oct numbers. That's why I concentrated on the last week of the election and not any period prior. Perhaps you should reread my post. Trump had already narrowed a 7 point deficit down to 4, within a tenth or two tenth's of a point by 28 Oct. The trend since 14 Oct and preceding 28 Oct was going Trump's way. He knocked 3 points off Hillary's lead during that two week time frame, 14-28 Oct.

Regardless, there's no numbers available that can prove his reopening on 28 Oct influence or didn't influence any voters. I think the e-mail thing was already baked in, you don't. Fine. No big thing. But I did try to find the data to prove it one way or the other, that data just doesn't exist as I stated in my previous post.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 05:38 PM
Quote
James Comey's letter to Congress was October 28, 2016. Coincidence? I think not.

I remember feeling my heart sink when that hit my newsfeed.

Like someone walking on my grave.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 05:42 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
James Comey's letter to Congress was October 28, 2016. Coincidence? I think not.

I remember feeling my heart sink when that hit my newsfeed.

Like someone walking on my grave.
Yup, me too. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 05:43 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Regardless, there's no numbers available that can prove his reopening on 28 Oct influence or didn't influence any voters.
Observation and common sense with the ability to analyze cause and effect will suffice.

smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 05:59 PM
There were a lot of factors involved in Hillary's loss that should have been a blowout.

But Comey's announcement was a biggie. The emails were baked in as you say, Pero, but some who had grudgingly decided to ignore them changed their minds when the FBI publicly announced that new information had come to light and that it was re-opening investigations. Such an announcement generally precedes the arrest and convictions of the parties involved.

And many who might have voted for her did not. Because back then being investigated by the FBI was a serious thing. If the Feds were called in then you knew some serious sh*t was about to come down.

The FBI didn't publicize or talk about investigations back then unless it was a sure thing. Comey's announcement was as devastating as a judge's decision in court. She was guilty.

And Donald Trump promised to get rid of that kind of corruption. To drain the swamp of the elites and the corrupt financiers and their lobbyists. To make America great again.

And here we are.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 06:05 PM
Comey knew what he was doing too. He wasn't a newcomer to the game.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 06:06 PM
As far as I can tell the electoral college makes or breaks the deal for the candidates. Hillary was advised, by the Democratic guys who claim to know, to ignore states like Michigan because they were owned by the Dems. They hopefully learned better this time around. Then there is this: https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-suppressing-hispanic-vote-180950158.html Seems the idiots may still be in charge making bad decisions?

I keep wondering - what in the hell are the Democrats doing?
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 06:07 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Comey knew what he was doing too. He wasn't a newcomer to the game.
Bow
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 06:09 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
As far as I can tell the electoral college makes or breaks the deal for the candidates. Hillary was advised, by the Democratic guys who claim to know, to ignore states like Michigan because they were owned by the Dems. They hopefully learned better this time around. Then there is this: https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-suppressing-hispanic-vote-180950158.html Seems the idiots may still be in charge making bad decisions?

I keep wondering - what in the hell are the Democrats doing?
Joe is not ignoring the Rust Belt. He's been in PA making speeches. smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/26/20 06:09 PM


How is it even possible that Trump is losing Texas? That would be like Joe Biden losing California. Hmm

...just goes to show what a dumbass Donald Trump truly is! coffee
I think the fact that Midwestern states tend to be more socially conservative was a major contributor to Hillary's loss. Hard to ignore all those woman voting for a self-admitted molester over a woman. Why would they do it, besides a deep conviction that the President should be male?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 01:44 AM
Quote
what in the hell are the Democrats doing?

You keep asking that. They are doing some good things and some bad things, it's all a matter of public record and much of it has been reported on the news. Did you hear AOCs speech? It was a barnburner that will be remembered for generations to come.
John Lewis was carried across the Edmund Pettus Bridge one last time and will lie in state in the capital rotunda.
They voted to fully fund the pentagon and Joe Biden is leading in the polls. Democrats are almost universally in favor of the BLM movement and have spoken daily against the presidents failure to respond to the 'rona. They are also challenging in court the right of the president to send in secret police when none are called for.
Biden says there's no reason we couldn't have a public option right now...
What exactly do you want them to be doing?
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 03:13 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
...John Lewis was carried across the Edmund Pettus Bridge one last time and will lie in state in the capital rotunda...
Representative Jim Clyburn (D) - NC who basically asked NC Black Americans to vote for Joe Biden in NC's primary last February, and essentially resurrected Biden's presidential bid single-handedly, is introducing the John Lewis Voter Reform Act 2020 tomorrow MO 07/27/20.

Let see the ReTHUGlicons try to delay or mess with that piece of legislation. The Dems are basically taunting the GOP to put their white robes on.

smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 04:35 PM
And it will die on Mitch McConnell's desk with no one ever having to don the robes.

Speaking of 2020, Amy McGrath is his opponent. I'm somewhat disappointed in her approach and wish she'd try to look and act a little more professional. She always seems to appear in casual clothes, looking a bit unkempt and mumbling some anti McConnell sentiments and asking for money. Godsake girl! Get a stylist with some of those millions you're collecting!
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 06:51 PM
I had a friend, now gone, who lived in Texas. He was a Republican and hugely upset with Trump and the present governor. He told me Texas would be going Democratic. This was just after the new governor tried to actually go to war with the United States army as invaders. He also thought Trump was some kind of cruel joke. Now throw in the Covid-19 disaster. He believed, however, that the people of Texas would take only so much before the went to the other side.

Seems he was right.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 06:56 PM
Its true, most Dems favor BLM. That being said I know that Seattle is starting to lose its patience. The marches, for the first weeks, were safe and orderly for the most part (except for the first debacle). Now, however, they are getting destruction every night. After a while this gets tiresome and the message gets lost.

They can stop the bad but haven't. Instead they seem to have chosen to try and justify it.

Bad move I fear.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 08:11 PM
Must not have been a member of {{{{THE BASE}}}}. ALL ... let me repeat .... ALL of the Trump supporters I know (and I know a lot of them) revere Mr Trump as if he is the reincarnation of Jesus. He could literally ... yes literally ... shoot some one on 5th Ave and they would still support him (and they would probably hope the person shot was a Democrat).

These folks are not going anywhere .... they would die with Covid to support Mr Trump
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 08:35 PM
The latest poll on Kentucky has McConnell up by 22.

https://americanprinciplesproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/APP.Kentucky.pdf

It's early and one poll doesn't mean much if anything. RCP has no averages and neither does 538. I have to question McConnell being up by that much.

Now there's a good chance of Biden winning Texas and also Georgia. Now that is as of today with still 100 days left prior to the election. The campaign season hasn't started yet.



Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 10:45 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Must not have been a member of {{{{THE BASE}}}}. ALL ... let me repeat .... ALL of the Trump supporters I know (and I know a lot of them) revere Mr Trump as if he is the reincarnation of Jesus. He could literally ... yes literally ... shoot some one on 5th Ave and they would still support him (and they would probably hope the person shot was a Democrat).

These folks are not going anywhere .... they would die with Covid to support Mr Trump

Truer words were never spoken. Here in the heartland of Florida they speak his name with the same reverence that is given to our lord and savior Jesus Christ...it just makes you want to gag.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 10:57 PM
Quote
McConnell up by 22.
I don't see that turning around any time soon either. But McGrath can do this again in six years when Mitch is 84...
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 11:16 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
The latest poll on Kentucky has McConnell up by 22.
The poll was taken before #MoscowMitch #McTurtle lowered the boom on unemployment supplement benefits.

Hmm

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/27/20 11:17 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
...Now that is as of today with still 100 days left prior to the election. The campaign season hasn't started yet.

99 smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/20 02:33 AM
LOL, yeah I hear you. 99 bottles of beer on the wall...
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/20 02:38 AM

No...today MO 07/27/20, there are 99 days left before America gets to vote for Joe Biden. But, it can be 100 days for you to vote for Fatso Trump, if you insist. smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/28/20 03:16 AM
I don't see this as a downside for the faithful. I think they feel all those folks collecting unemployment should be back at work and all they are doing is robbing the faithful and if one of them is a true believer then it is ok to be unemployed and not collecting any money because some worthless Democrat governor or some apostate Republican governor shut everything down.

I am not sure why anyone still considers these folks as rational humans.
You know, McConnell is old and pretty sloppy about wearing a mask, especially when he's out in public or around Trump. He may not live until January.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/30/20 04:44 AM

Incompetent Trump Campaign writes off Michigan, redirects funds to Texas.

Trump shouldn't have to spend money in Texas. It would be like Biden spending money in California.

One down, two more Rust Belt states to go and we can call 270 before November 3rd.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/30/20 05:51 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Incompetent Trump Campaign writes off Michigan, redirects funds to Texas.

Trump shouldn't have to spend money in Texas. It would be like Biden spending money in California.

One down, two more Rust Belt states to go and we can call 270 before November 3rd.

smile

Top Battleground states

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/

Texas

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

Georgia

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_biden-6974.html

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/30/20 11:51 PM

Joe Biden doesn't need Texas or Georgia to win. Joe only needs one of these five scenarios:

1 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment.
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02.
3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270.

smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 03:59 AM
What about if it rains on the Wednesday before election day? I am often reminded of
"The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft a-gley." - Burns

I would never bet on a plan which had more moving parts than the sum of my two eyes and one nose.

Something of interest ... The proverbial Oct Surprise.
What if Mr Trump buys all the vaccine from Russia and claims victory or just claims victory because there will be a future vaccine. Sen Johnson proclaims VP Biden s guilty of corruption based on Russian intelligence. Rep Nunes backs him up with evidence sent by corrupt Ukrainians tied to Putin. O and the old standby .... there is proof of voter fraud but they can not show it to the American people before the election. And if you want to get really bizarre .... the election is fake news because Mr Trump was elected president for life.
Giant meteor to hit Earth on election day: You should spend the days before digging as deep a shelter as you can in your backyard. Personally, I don't care. I don't get to have a polling place because my district is too small. We've been voting by mail for 20 years.

And when Trump says "absentee voting" is great, but "voting by mail" is bad, WTH is he trying to express? Those are identical. Is there some kind of racial dog whistle embedded in there?
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 04:33 AM
Absentee voting is what snow birds and the military do, you know, Real ‘Mericuns. Mail-in-voting is what liberals and communists do to pervert an election. Everyone knows that.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 12:40 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Joe Biden doesn't need Texas or Georgia to win. Joe only needs one of these five scenarios:

1 Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment.
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02.
3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270.

smile

True, but with Biden leading in all those states, some by 5 or more points along with the closeness of Texas and Georgia, all States Trump won in 2016. That shows Trump is in deep doo doo to use an old G.H.W. Bush phrase.

Looking at state polling, if we went by who leads today, it's Biden 352, Trump 186. That total is with Trump still winning both Texas and Georgia. You're absolutely correct, Biden doesn't need either state. But the closeness of those two states speaks volumes to a numbers guy like me.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 12:44 PM
"There Is No Evidence That Voting By Mail Gives One Party An Advantage"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ng-by-mail-gives-one-party-an-advantage/
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 04:46 PM
This is the beginning of Trump's plan to never leave. I have no doubt at that. My real problem is whether he is going to succeed or not. We know he has his own Gestapo in ICE (tested in Portland), white supremists (currently working hard at looting, and otherwise co-opting BLM marches), and 40% of the voting public (completely deluded). This is a bit more than Hitler had when he took over. Hopefully the military are not in his pocket.

These are very scary times. By the time the vote happens there will be millions of pissed off evicted on the streets (HIS senate is assuring, so far, this one by making sure everybody gets evicted due to no money to pay rent or mortgage).

Interesting times!
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 07:35 PM

I just had a thought: What if McConnell's slow-walk to help Americans is really purposeful so that many are evicted and their lives are so upended they don't have a chance to vote in November 2020?

Hmm
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 07/31/20 07:38 PM
Ever think Kansas could go Democratic.

"Republicans and White House at Odds Over Kansas Senate Race"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-white-house-odds-over-121106014.html

Okay, the GOP primary isn't until Tuesday, but the two latest polls betweeen Kris Kobach vs. Barbara Boilier show basically a tie. Boiler leads in one 41-40 with Kobach the leaders in the other 44-43. Not much to go on, two polls, but very interesting. Especially for Kansas.

FYI, Trump has an 11 point lead in Kansas. So Biden isn't going to win there. But the idea of a Democratic senator coming from Kansas of all places, that makes one wonder. Then again, Alabama just sent a Democrat to the senate two years ago in Doug Jones. Strange happenings all over the political election map.
Quote
Absentee voting is what snow birds and the military do, you know, Real ‘Mericuns. Mail-in-voting is what liberals and communists do to pervert an election. Everyone knows that.

Ah, classic Irked. I was getting worried about you there.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/01/20 02:47 PM

Emerson Poll:

Quote
Undecided percent in Presidential race shifts from 10% in June to 4% in July
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/01/20 07:00 PM
If all renters get evicted, and all those with mortgaged houses lose them, there are are going to be, for sure, blood on the streets. The other problem is that there are those, who are not exactly desirable, that will see this as a genuine opportunity to gather money and power. That's the one, I think, that REALLY scares the crap out of me.

It will, of course, also be a time of property opportunities, just as happened in 2008 - but much worse. Think on it. We can all tell stories about the existing homeless, now add, literally, millions. Around where I live most murders happen in the woods. We have lots of people living in the woods, isolated and happy - until invaded and murdered. There are a LOT of great big houses, in the hills, easily seen from below and they are also isolated. Not a real good place to be I fear, not with millions of the pissed off at them with the big bucks.

At the very least I would suggest that the National parks open their campgrounds to the homeless so, at least, they can find some place to plant their tents. If they were to do that it would reduce the pressure from the homeless. If they did that they would also have to provide some kind of security, especially from the homeless that are also predators (there seems to be a lot of those).

Right now the national parks are reserved for those with the money to get in and, then have the money to pay to camp in the campgrounds as well. Basically, right now, the national parks are NOT for them without (which I think is wrong). If you don't have a pass it will cost you 50 bucks to get in and if you want to camp that will be another 25 bucks. Not much, unless you don't have much.

On second that my idea about homeless camping in the park is a really bad idea. I am basing this having seen some of their existing encampments. From the looks of it one has the impression that they are determined to create and live in squalor making absolutely no effort to change it even when provided with a way to deal with their garbage.
I think the homeless camps you have been seeing are not the same people who would get evicted. They are the mentally ill, the drug addicts, the alcoholics. etc. In other words the people who should actually be institutionalized. To get an idea of the new homeless, I would look at most single-wide trailer parks. People who can function, but are just poor.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 12:45 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Emerson Poll:

Quote
Undecided percent in Presidential race shifts from 10% in June to 4% in July
I wouldn't put too much stock in one poll when you have RCP averages.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

The undecided is a lot closer to 10%, perhaps a bit above so far. What RCP averages and Emerson doesn't do is to provide third party voters.

Going inside and averaging everything out, Biden 49%, Trump 42%, other or third party voters 4%, undecided or not sure 5%. From January until today, Biden has been between 47-51%, Trump from 40-44%. Compare that to 2016 when Hillary was between 40-44%, Trump from 36-40%.

In 2016 the third party/undecided from January through July averaged between 18-22%, 2020 7-11%.

The bottom line is in 2020 Trump must convince some Biden supporters to jump his ship and board Trump's train. There isn't that huge pool of 20% or so undecided/third party voters to pull from. In 2016, Trump didn't need to convince one Hillary voter to come over to his side.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 04:38 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Trump didn't need to convince one Hillary voter to come over to his side.
Trump can’t afford to lose even 3 percent or 4 percent of the Republican base or he’ll go down this fall - but Trump already has. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 05:12 AM

He’s asked Russia.
He’s asked Ukraine.
He’s asked China.

Trump can only win if he cheats. gobsmacked
Just watched President Obama's eulogy for Rep. John Lewis. Holy crap: That man can deliver a speech! The contrast with Trump is just stunning. Every sentence on target. Every phrase coherent. Every pause, perfectly timed. He gives his audience time between phrases for them to think about what he just said.

Then reading the comments on the YouTube version made me sad that some people can't recognize greatness when they see it. Some were criticizing Obama for "turning a eulogy into a campaign speech", completely ignoring that everything Obama spoke about was an integral part of John Lewis' life work. And the fact that Obama is not running for anything!
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 06:47 AM

Donald Trump stands in the shadow of Barack Obama's greatness. THAT is why Donald Trump loathes Barack Obama.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 12:40 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Trump didn't need to convince one Hillary voter to come over to his side.
Trump can’t afford to lose even 3 percent or 4 percent of the Republican base or he’ll go down this fall - but Trump already has. Hmm

Trump is getting the same percentage of Republican voters as he received back in 2016. 88% according to the polls with the trial heats between Biden and Trump. Hillary received 8% of the Republican vote in 2016, Biden is averaging 6% so far. So it's not Republicans that are or have deserted him. 90% is the historical average for a presidential candidate percentage of his party's votes in any one election.

Trump's loss so far is among independents, in 2016 Trump received 46% of their vote vs. 42% for Hillary. 12% voted against both major party candidates. Trump is averaging 40% as of today among independents. To round this out, Trump received 8% of the Democratic vote in 2016, he's getting 4% today.

This explains where thing stands today, but where they stand in November, who knows?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 12:46 PM
I don't think Obama was a great president. I think in the next Historian polls that come out he'll be somewhere in the middle of the pact or headed that way 20 years hence. Historians usually wait awhile before rating presidents to see how their policies effected this country long term.

I will add this, Obama seems to be great because he was president between G.W. Bush and Trump. Historians rank G.W. 33rd, where they rank Trump remains to be seen. I would reckon lower than G.W. So being sandwiched between these two makes one look like a diamond in the rough.


Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 06:12 PM
You are right, to a point. Remember, these people you are talking about are going to be REALLY pissed off and not exactly taking a long view or thinking things through.

When you have a situation when people are not exactly thinking things through they are also wide open to the bullsh*t blathered by them that take advantage.

The single wide trailer parks are also interesting. Most of those have been bought up by developers.

The real problem is that its not only the poor people getting screwed over. The rich people have lost all of their customers and are also not exactly delighted.

I continue to believe that they are both in the same bucket of crap and if they are to survive they should get together and make some kind of a deal. I suggested that, I just don't see it happening. We don't have a rudder. We can't depend on the administration, the congress is pretty much worthless and there are a lot of questions about our judicial system.

Unless somebody figures it out we are in for a REALLY bad time! (and it scares the hell out of me)
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 06:16 PM
Its always interested me about how not great Obama was/is. It might even be true. On the other hand nobody ever seems to remember that the other side claimed, right out loud, as soon as he was elected, that they would not allow him to get a single piece of legislation done under his name. As soon as 2018 rolled around they won the senate and so Obama had to legislate by decree. The first two years was spent on the economy and health care which his own party fought him on - tooth and nail.

I wonder, right now, just how the Dems will behave once they take office. Their record is not exactly great and they REALLY like to quibble and fight and behave poorly given half a chance.

Oh, the Dems lost to Trump, in 2016 for a lot of reasons. That being said the simple fact that the Dems considered Trump to be a joke was, I think, one of the main reasons. We all gotta remember that the Democrats are quite capable, and has a huge capacity, of screwing it up!
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 07:56 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I don't think Obama was a great president.
A lot of white nationalists feel that way. coffee

Remember, Mitch McConnell said on the night of January 9, 2009 it was his and the GOP's goal to make Obama a one-term president. Obama did pretty well under those conditions. History will note what I just wrote. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 08:49 PM
Okay, so I think Obama was more of an average president than a great one, that makes me a white nationalist. Personally, in my lifetime I rank Eisenhower as the best, JFK second, the I swap three and four around a lot, Reagan and Bill Clinton.

I find it interesting that historians talking the long term view of presidents to give it time to evaluate how their policies effected this country ten, twenty years after they left office along with giving the partisanship factor a chance to die down rate those four presidents, IKE 5, JFK 8, Reagan 9, Bill Clinton 15 all time.

I ranked LBJ below Bill, but historians have him ranked 10th. So I do differ some with them.

If you all want to consider Obama a great president, that fine. With me, Obama spent his last six years as a caretaker president defending the ACA and not getting much if anything else accomplished. That outside of Executive orders, using his phone and his pen.

After all, how one views a president is a personal perspective. A white nationalist, no biggie. I've been called a lot worst on another site, by both the left and the right since I don't fall into either's ideological mandate or litmus test for inclusion. Actually, it's quite fun that way. I like being a free agent, able to decide where I stand on the issues one at a time based on each issues merits. The same with candidates. Not being told what to think, say and vote like some mindless robot owned by a political party.


Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 10:35 PM
Yeah, I'm a white nationalist too. Obama could have been great.
But he was about the milquetoastiest oatmeal sandwich that ever sat on the throne.

He's a great man. But politically he was a coward.

Shoulda went low a few times. He didn't stand up for the public option in the ACA. He wasn't really in favor of same sex marriage either, Biden talked him into his grudging support of it.

I wanted him to be great. I hoped for change.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 11:24 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Yeah, I'm a white nationalist too. Obama could have been great.
But he was about the milquetoastiest oatmeal sandwich that ever sat on the throne.

He's a great man. But politically he was a coward.

Shoulda went low a few times. He didn't stand up for the public option in the ACA. He wasn't really in favor of same sex marriage either, Biden talked him into his grudging support of it.

I wanted him to be great. I hoped for change.
I think with the super majorities Obama had his first two years, he could have gotten anything he wanted through congress. He chose to let it be one thing, the ACA. Perhaps two if you count his stimulus package. Then six years of battling to retain the ACA, basically as I stated, a caretaker outside of the EO route.

It wasn't Obama's first two years that made him average in my book, it was his last six. Perhaps healthcare was that important to him that he was willing to give up getting much of anything accomplished during his last six. Or it might have been he and all other Democrats never saw 2010 coming. After all, the Democrats had a 257-178 margin in the House. The GOP needed a net gain of 40 seats to regain the house. No one envisioned 63. That 63 seat loss is the most seats lost since the 1932 election when the GOP lost 101. But even 1932 was outdone by the 1894 election when the Democrats lost 105.

Yeah, I agree Obama could have been great, but those last six caretaker years makes him average.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 11:26 PM
Okay, enough of Obama. Here's a very good article on Tammy Duckworth. She's who I think Biden should pick for his VP. I really like this girl. Four years as Biden's VP then president in 2024.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tammy-duckworth-nothing-everything-joe-154654762.html
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/02/20 11:42 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I think with the super majorities Obama had his first two years, he could have gotten anything he wanted through congress. He chose to let it be one thing, the ACA.
Yet, there were over fifty bills passed. You should be kissing Obama's black feet that your diabetes is no longer a pre-existing condition.

Also too, 58 Den senators are not a "super majority." That would be 67. Your hyperbole is noted.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 12:01 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
I think with the super majorities Obama had his first two years, he could have gotten anything he wanted through congress. He chose to let it be one thing, the ACA.
Yet, there were over fifty bills passed. You should be kissing Obama's black feet that your diabetes is no longer a pre-existing condition.

Also too, 58 Den senators are not a "super majority." That would be 67. Your hyperbole is noted.

smile
It takes 60 for cloture and has since 1975. With the two independents caucusing with the democrats they had 60 from 7 July 2009-4 Feb 2010. True there were only 58 Democrats or who called themselves Democrats, but with the two independents Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, that made 60 which was held until Scott Brown replaced Ted Kennedy. Actually Brown replaced Paul Kirk who had replaced Ted Kennedy.

Your super majority isn't 67 anymore. It's 60.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 12:59 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
I think with the super majorities Obama had his first two years, he could have gotten anything he wanted through congress. He chose to let it be one thing, the ACA.
Yet, there were over fifty bills passed. You should be kissing Obama's black feet that your diabetes is no longer a pre-existing condition.

Also too, 58 Den senators are not a "super majority." That would be 67. Your hyperbole is noted.

smile
Why is the color of Obama's feet important? To me he was Mr. President. Just as all other presidents in my lifetime. Although presidents from LBJ through Obama were 1966-2012 were also CINC's.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 02:19 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
I think with the super majorities Obama had his first two years, he could have gotten anything he wanted through congress. He chose to let it be one thing, the ACA.
Yet, there were over fifty bills passed. You should be kissing Obama's black feet that your diabetes is no longer a pre-existing condition.

Also too, 58 Den senators are not a "super majority." That would be 67. Your hyperbole is noted.

smile
Why is the color of Obama's feet important?
Because white nationalists never see color. I just like to rub it in. All Lives Matter much? smile
So 4 months out of 8 years Obama had enough votes to end filibusters. Of course one of those votes was Joe Lieberman, who pretty much killed the public option in ACA. So not a very reliable vote. Combine that with Republican House and Senate that threatens to filibuster to keep him from accomplishing anything at all, no matter how good it was for the country. Plus Blue Dog Democrats from conservative states who feel they can't always vote the straight Party line.

Exactly how was he supposed to get any bills passed during those 7 2/3 years? Shoot Republican congressmen? Have his secret police kidnap them? I think you are blaming Obama for things that were out of his control. He did what he could with the tools that were available to him.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 03:22 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
I think with the super majorities Obama had his first two years, he could have gotten anything he wanted through congress. He chose to let it be one thing, the ACA.
Yet, there were over fifty bills passed. You should be kissing Obama's black feet that your diabetes is no longer a pre-existing condition.

Also too, 58 Den senators are not a "super majority." That would be 67. Your hyperbole is noted.

smile
Why is the color of Obama's feet important?
Because white nationalists never see color. I just like to rub it in. All Lives Matter much? smile
I suppose that makes me a white nationalist them. Perhaps almost everyone in the military. We see folks as privates, sergeants, Captains, colonels, generals and the different GS and WG ranks are Mr. and Mrs. or MS. depending.

I know of no one who asked the solider behind him who had your back what race or religion he was. I suppose it happened. with Obama I looked at him as my CINC the same as G.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, G.H.W. Bush, Reagan and all others.

And yes, I do think all lives matter, especially those in our military. Way too many died young and now wear the scars of their duty so people I suppose can call us white nationalist.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 04:45 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
...And yes, I do think all lives matter...
It was a test. You failed, see why. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 01:54 PM
So be it. But I'm comfortable with my failure for whatever reason. I still can't see or understand why civilians have this fixation on race. Why race is so absolutely important to them. It seems we military folks have put all that race stuff behind us. Civilians keep it front and centered.

Besides job related, you ever walk into a PX or Commissary. You'd be surprised to see all the interracial marriages, all the mixed kids. we're basically one huge family taking care of each other regardless of race or religion. You're fixation on race fascinates me. I don't really understand it, but at the same time am fascinated.

I do think the military has pretty much attained a colorblind organization with a few exceptions here and there. I don't think that is possible in the civilian world as long a color, race takes such a high precedence and so much importance is attached to the color of one's skin.

From this little exchange, I see it is very important to you whether one is black, white, brown, yellow whereas to me all of that is irrelevant. I'd say to most military folks it is irrelevant, it's how each individual does his/her job, the trust in each other, relying on each other, helping each other out, being a member of the team and accomplishing the mission.

I do think civilians pay way too much attention to the outward appearance instead of the inner character and perhaps reliability of a person. In Vietnam and in Laos, my life was in the hands of other soldiers of all races, religion and in the hands of the Lao and Vietnamese army and their lives in my hands.

Later in other places throughout the world, Afghanistan and Iraq being the most recent, their lives regardless of race was in a way still in my hands for the support I and others provided as Department of the Army civilians. We never asked what race they were or whether they were Afghani or Iraqi. Civilians are crazy when it comes to race, utterly crazy.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 04:28 PM

Race matters because an overwhelming majority of U.S. history is whitewashed to make white people look like the saviors of people of color and downplayed violence against African-Americans.

The Emancipation Proclamation should have been the end of slavery in America. Instead, whites fought back so hard against change that it took another 100 years for the Civil Rights movement to stop the oppression again. Sixty years later, another movement is upon us, with white supremacists claiming that asking police not to shoot unarmed Black people is somehow anarchy.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 04:42 PM
To you, not me. I see people as people, you see them as being black, white, red, yellow, brown etc. Too much of a hangup you have on race and attach way too much importance to it.

Where we see sailors, marines, soldiers, airmen, you see black, white, brown, yellow, red sailors, marines, soldiers, airmen or should I say people as a whole. You have a race barrier, I'm glad I had my 46 years in the military, active and as a civilian, able to over come that barrier which most civilians seem unable to. That is a civilian problem.

I don't place more value on the life of a black or of a white or of a brown or of a yellow. You do. That is our difference.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 06:36 PM
I dunno that the real world is much different from the military. Didn't matter to me whether the drywall guy was black or white, didn't matter if the superintendent was Mexican. Black nurses work hand in hand with white nurses. Black mailmen deliver the mail the same as brown or white ones.

The boss is the boss no matter what color he/she is. Assh*les come in all shades and genders.

There is just as much racism in the military as there is out of it.

Our own white privilege blinds us to it sometimes.

The whole argument isn't about lives mattering...they don't. The argument is that police shouldn't shoot fleeing suspects in the back and they should not strangle them once apprehended.

And they need to stop this trend of very publicly killing people on camera and denying that they did it while defending their right to kill anyone at any time without any repercussion and maybe even admit that they seem to do it most to black people, almost as if black people's lives really just didn't matter any more than a mosquito or roach.

America is divided right now about whether we want police brutality or not. And oddly, just like everything else it has split on party lines.

Wearing a mask...

paying a living wage...

Trayvon Martin...
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 08:03 PM
I gotta say a bit more about Obama. First, I don't think he is going down as a great president either. On the other hand he had problems. The Republicans fought everything he did tooth and nail and they had the upper hand for 6 of the 8 years. Then there was Obamacare. He, for instance, wanted a public option but his own party, the Democrats would not allow it! the Democrats! You might also find it interesting that the Republicans actually wrote half of Obamacare and, when it came up for a vote, not a single Republican voted for it! Some of you thought he just didn't do enough. Well, first, the Republicans made sure that the Democrats couldn't legislate anything. Obama, again, was forced to govern by fiat, just like Trump. The difference was that the Republicans whined about that for 6 freaking years! Daily, without letup. Now, lets, see, Trump has been doing that for close to 4 years. How many Democrats have even bothered to mention that! The Republican senate has ignored over 500 bills from the House. Nobody is even allowed to read them! Basically, the Republicans have shut down the congress, as far as legislation is concerned, for the entire time the Trump administration has been up. Moscow Mitch, for instance, actually brags about it! In this instance, the Democrats occasionally mention this but, really not much. The only one to actually notice seems to be Pelosi as the other Democrats seem to have other agendas and I have no idea what that is.

So, Obama was not a great president. But, I think, it wasn't all his fault. HIS party loved a good fight, with each other when they had control. The Republicans toasted Obama every time they had an opening. When the Republicans took over in the senate the Dems made a little noise then moved on to taking a beating with little noise. Its fine to blame Obama. I, for instance, felt that Obama wasted a lot of time trying to get along with the Republicans! (he failed - surprise! But, at least, he did try) I also found it interesting that the Republicans, during this time, also took over a LOT of State legislatures. It seems to me that The Democrats just went to sleep on the job. Its kinda like Female causes. They get active about every 30 years and the rest of the time - nothing. The Republicans, on the other hand never shut up, march in step, and fight the same fights. They rarely fight within the party (except during the Trump reign) whilst the Dems are constantly taking shots at each other, have a purist wing that makes sure functional legislators are purged (often because of transgressions that happened in high school, etc), and otherwise have a great time.

So, have a great time ranking on Obama, and anybody else you want. Such behavior is just the way it is (and its a damned shame!)

I will vote against Trump in November as I really want him gone. If the Dems win then that's great! All that being said, I, unlike those with the firm belief that the Dems are going to win, am just holding my breath until that actually comes to pass.

One can only wonder........
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 10:09 PM
Obama was the best president of my lifetime (Ike forward to today). In demeanor, oratory, policy, and morality he far exceeded all his predecessors (Do we need to even mention the fact that his successor is the person with the worst demeanor, the worst speechifying of the modern age, a completely amoral man following horrible, vindictive and cruel policy (if it what he does can actually be called "policy").)

Obama got an amazing number of things completed in the four months he had a majority. Even with the majority, he actively sought Republican input for both the recovery and the ACA. In fact, much of both bills were Republican amendments.

Even without congressional majorities, he marshalled on, seeking to meet the threats of climate change, Chinese aggression, Russian aggression, and terrorism. On all fronts, no matter how much his initiatives conformed to policy previously held by Republicans, he was universally opposed by the once conservative party.

If this country continues down the road it is barreling down at full speed, history will look at Obama as not only the last great American president but the last democratically elected American president; the last president before the United States devolved into a failed state led by authoritarian nihilists willing to say or do anything to increase their own power and wealth and suppress those who oppose them.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/03/20 10:35 PM

Compared to a GWBush speech or a Donald Trump speech...Obama is like buddah. smile

Also Obama didn't destroy the economy like GWBush and Trump did.

laugh
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 02:08 PM
I liked Obama, I disagree with some of his policies and his actions like I have with every other president in my lifetime. I do think that if Obama and the Democrats in congress had read the views and wants of the public in general when it came to the ACA, they would have put it off for a couple of years and engaged in education of the people.

Going against the will of the people, at the time they said a big no to the ACA as it took them completely out of their comfort zone which made them angry, especially independents angry which resulted in the loss of the House of Representative in 2010. These same independents which voted for Obama over McCain 52-44 and 53-45 for Democratic congressional candidates turned against Obama and the Democrats in 2010 by a 56-37 margin. From a plus 8 for Obama to a minus 19 for the democrats in 2010, a swing of 27 points. Also the Republicans didn't take over the senate until the last two years of the Obama administration. The Democrats under Harry Reid held the senate from 2009-2014.

I think Obama could have accomplished a great deal if he had listened a bit to the American public as a whole when it came to the ACA. If he had listened, the Democrats probably would have remained in charged of congress, both the house and the senate through all 8 years of his presidency. Great things awaited in my opinion, only to be lost on the fixation on health care when America as a whole was against it.

But those decisions belonged to Obama and the democrats, not me or anyone else. Obama was well liked by America as a whole regardless of his policies. When America voted, it was against or for his policies, not Obama as an individual. This time around as in 2018, people are voting more against an individual, Trump than his policies.

With both parties shrinking and independents rising, both parties better take the views, the wants and don't wants of independents more seriously than just playing or passing legislation for their base. Wave elections are happening much more than in the past caused by ignoring independents which make up 40% of the electorate today. The days when Democrats made up 45% of the electorate are long gone. Today they make up 31% if Gallup is to be believed. Independents and wave elections, 1994, then 2006, then 2010, then 2018. Prior to 1994 the last wave election was in 1948
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 05:32 PM
Quote
Obama got an amazing number of things completed in the four months he had a majority.

But then the other 7 2/3 years he sat on his hands because Republicans.

Somehow Republicans seem to get things done despite Democrats. More often than not with Democratic help.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 06:12 PM
Quote
if Obama and the Democrats in congress had read the views and wants of the public in general when it came to the ACA, they would have put it off for a couple of years and engaged in education of the people.

There's a lot of truth to that. Both the right and the left were against it. It went too far for conservatives and not far enough for liberals and there was never any compromise. A crappy bill got passed that nobody liked. Not a single Republican voted for it. The Supreme Court pulled its teeth and essentially nothing changed. A win for conservatives. Obama's entire reign was basically a win for conservatives and they capitalized on it when they elected Trump.

Democrats have nominated his VP, who was chosen because he was more conservative than Obama, and while we may get rid of Trump it will be another win for conservatives.

Biden is know for his ability to "work across the aisle". To compromise, to give up what liberals want in favor of what conservatives want...

You ever hear conservatives saying they need to "work across the aisle"...? They don't. They need to steamroll the opposition it's what they do and they're good at it.

I'm not sure what Democrats are good for or good at.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is what they are most often hailed for....

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 06:16 PM
Actually it was the last 6 years as caretaker president after a 63 seat house loss. The third most seats lost in the house in this countries history. However one looks at it, it boils down to one thing, forcing on America something they didn't want at the time, the people let the Democrats know this and they ignored America as a whole just to please their base. The average polls showed 55% against, 40% for. Because Obama and the democrats ignored how the major of Americans felt and didn't want, there was payback in November of 2010.

Obama won reelection because independents liked him as a person, not necessarily because of his policies. They distrusted Romney and viewed Romney much more negatively than Obama. The beauty contest. Charisma won. Which if you go back through history, you'll find in elections when one candidate is much more charismatic than the other, charisma wins every time.

2012 the Charismatic Obama over Romney
2008 Obama over the non-charismatic McCain
1996 The very charismatic Bill Clinton over the dour Dole.
1992 Once again charisma over the non-charismatic G.H.W. Bush.
1984 The very charismatic Reagan over Mondale
1980 Once again charisma wins, Reagan over Carter and so on.

Now being a down home boy can be an advantage as G.W. Bush and his down home style won over two statues, Gore and Kerry. As did the down home Jimmy Carter over the very bland Ford. But Carter was no match for the charismatic Reagan.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 06:52 PM
And the charismatic playboy billionaire/reality teevee star Donald Trump over the schoolmarm charm of Hillary Clinton.

Clinton lost the 2008 primary to Obama's charisma....to tell you the truth, I wish Clinton had beat him and I wish she had beat Trump.

But charisma wins every time.

You ever notice that charismatic people, more often than not, are assh*les...?

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 08:08 PM
I was a John McCain supporter in 2008 and didn't really care who won on the Democratic side. Now I sure wouldn't call Trump charismatic. Just the opposite. More of a schoolyard bully, a spoiled brat among other things. From what I can tell, come up with, about the only reason Trump won the GOP nomination he was viewed as a fighter. A lot of republicans were really peeved at the GOP house for not stopping Obama cold, from not taking over the reigns of government, something totally impossible. I thought they were very stupid with that idea. The GOP didn't have the numbers, but that meant nothing to them. Reality had left the boat and drowned.

Beating Hillary, it was independents that did that. They sure didn't like Trump, 57% of them viewed him negatively. But they disliked Hillary even more, 70%. Questions 10 & 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

The dislike of both was so high that in the end, some 9 million independents voted against both by casting a ballot for a third party candidate. Trump certainly wasn't charismatic. Obama was, Bill Clinton was, so too Reagan. JFK perhaps the most charismatic of the lot. At least in my time. IKE wasn't really charismatic, but everybody liked IKE.



I miss the old TV political ads like that one. But no, Trump is/was anything but charismatic. The total opposite. He was one lucky SOB to go up against a candidate viewed as aloof and as elitist by a majority of Americans. A candidate that was lazy and ran the most inept campaign I have seen this side of G.H.W. Bush 1992 run. I think the difference is folks viewed Bush's campaign as a I don't care if I win campaign, that is until the last two weeks of the campaign when he really got into it. By that time it was too late. With Hillary, it was like she thought the election was in the bag, guaranteed. Just my opinion.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 11:34 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
if Obama and the Democrats in congress had read the views and wants of the public in general when it came to the ACA, they would have put it off for a couple of years and engaged in education of the people.

There's a lot of truth to that. Both the right and the left were against it. It went too far for conservatives and not far enough for liberals and there was never any compromise. A crappy bill got passed that nobody liked. Not a single Republican voted for it. The Supreme Court pulled its teeth and essentially nothing changed. A win for conservatives. Obama's entire reign was basically a win for conservatives and they capitalized on it when they elected Trump.

Democrats have nominated his VP, who was chosen because he was more conservative than Obama, and while we may get rid of Trump it will be another win for conservatives.

Biden is know for his ability to "work across the aisle". To compromise, to give up what liberals want in favor of what conservatives want...

You ever hear conservatives saying they need to "work across the aisle"...? They don't. They need to steamroll the opposition it's what they do and they're good at it.

I'm not sure what Democrats are good for or good at.

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is what they are most often hailed for....
I always thought the BAMZ!!! was center-right. Hmm
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/04/20 11:45 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
You ever notice that charismatic people, more often than not, are assh*les...?
I was afraid it was just me who thought that.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 12:48 AM
A holes? charismatic presidents include FDR, JFK, Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama. Those are my charismatic presidents. But here is the list of the THE PROGRESSIVE PROFESSOR:

http://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?tag=charismatic-presidents
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 01:54 AM
Waiting is what Americans have been doing since Teddy Roosevelt on universal health care (hell! Bismarck introduced it in the 19th Century), over 400 yrs for equal rights, and forever for economic justice.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 03:51 AM
Originally Posted by Irked
Waiting is what Americans have been doing since Teddy Roosevelt on universal health care (hell! Bismarck introduced it in the 19th Century), over 400 yrs for equal rights, and forever for economic justice.
While Trump is trying to repeat the Herbert Hoover years, Trump also tells James Buchanan to hold his beer.

smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 04:53 PM
Quote
A holes? charismatic presidents include FDR, JFK, Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama.

FDR and JFK were American aristocrats. Born into power and wealth.

Reagan was a movie star, Bill Clinton an inveterate womanizer.

Obama's ego is bigger than most rooms he walks into. He is always above the fray...he is always above pretty much everything. To enter the fray is beneath him.

Yes, assh*les.

Trump is also one of those charismatic leaders.

Even old down home George Bush who used his phony Texas persona is both charismatic, and an assh*le. Hillary Clinton is just an assh*le. But she would've been a great president.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 06:25 PM
I do think we have two separate definitions of charisma or being charismatic. As for Hillary, I think everyone knew exactly how she would have governed. To some that would have made her a great president, to others just a plain old elitist, aloof, know it all A-hole.

To probably most Americans, a majority of them anyway, presidential elections are nothing more than beauty contests which the candidates trying to manipulate the unwashed masses perspectives of them. In the end, most folks end up voting for the candidate they dislike the least. In today's day and age, very few actually vote for a candidate anymore, just against the other guy.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 07:25 PM
Quote
a plain old elitist, aloof, know it all A-hole.

That describes pretty much every politician ever. The charismatic ones know how to grin and glad hand, how to kiss babies and make the unwashed masses love their elitist, aloof, know it all asses.

Trump is the best example of that ever. Charisma got him elected, but once elected to a leadership position it turned out he had no leadership skills.

Hillary Clinton has leadership skills but no charisma. She's a worker, not a charmer.

The Clintons, to this day, are worldwide power brokers, leaders on many fronts in the battle for the good of mankind. One of them is charismatic, people flock to him like gulls on a dropped bag of fries. One is the worker bee.

I always suspected that President Clinton was actually Hillary. Bill was just the frontman who was great at getting the rubes into the tent. I think most of his positions came out of deep conversations with her. It was (and still is) an alliance of mutual benefit, more than a normal marriage. That's maybe why she was more disappointed when he couldn't keep it in his pants, rather than infuriated by his betrayal.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/05/20 11:07 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
To probably most Americans, a majority of them anyway, presidential elections are nothing more than beauty contests which the candidates trying to manipulate the unwashed masses perspectives of them. In the end, most folks end up voting for the candidate they dislike the least.
That has long been my casual observation, as well. As much as we might wish otherwise, the Prez is elected on very superficial qualities.

Go George Clooney!
I was thinking of George when this first came up.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/06/20 01:52 AM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by perotista
To probably most Americans, a majority of them anyway, presidential elections are nothing more than beauty contests which the candidates trying to manipulate the unwashed masses perspectives of them. In the end, most folks end up voting for the candidate they dislike the least.
That has long been my casual observation, as well. As much as we might wish otherwise, the Prez is elected on very superficial qualities.

Go George Clooney!
Superficial, that an excellent way to state it. Personality and behavior seems to be front and center so far this year.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/06/20 03:52 AM
Originally Posted by logtroll
That has long been my casual observation, as well. As much as we might wish otherwise, the Prez is elected on very superficial qualities.

Go George Clooney!
So why was a morbidly obese 74-year-old man with a spray-on tan and a ridiculous hairdo that looks like it used to be a Beehive-do that someone sat on, elected?

coffee
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/06/20 04:39 PM
Why? If you're serious it was the candidates chosen by both parties in 2016. Both choose unwanted candidates by America as a whole and independents especially.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

If you scroll down you see 24% of republicans viewed both major party candidates unfavorable, 20% of Democrats and a very high 54% of independents. Only 4% of Republicans had a favorable view of Clinton, 4% of Democrats saw Trump favorably. Independents, 30% had a favorable view of Clinton, 33% of Trump.

So the election devolved into a decision of who one disliked the least, voting for the candidate one wanted to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. especially among independents as 90% of Republicans and Democrats are going to and did as history has shown, voted for their candidate regardless of who that candidate was.

You actually had only about a third of all Americans wanting Trump to win, a bit over a third wanting Clinton to win, all the rest regardless of their reasons, voted for the candidate they wanted to lose the least. They wanted both to lose. This latter was especially true for independents, the non-affiliated group with either party, the less to non-partisan and definitely less ideological. Call them the middle of the roader's. 12% thought it important enough to go to the polls to vote against both major party candidates, some 9 million voters because they disliked both so much, they were willing to vote for a candidate they knew didn't stand a chance of winning. Disgust rained among independent at the choices made by both major parties.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/06/20 05:57 PM
So what's the breakdown this year? Neither candidate is worth a flying poke at a rolling doughnut. I suppose there are people who actually WANT Joe Biden to be president. I'm not among them.

I know there are some who WANT Trump to win a second term. I'm certainly not among those either.

A beauty contest? Between septuagenarians? Is there gonna be a swimsuit portion?

America loses if either candidate is elected. But I'm afraid the America we have known and loved is lost anyway.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/06/20 08:34 PM
There is a serious difference between the two. Biden, for instance, will-not-kill-you. Trump, on the other hand is working hard at it - right-now! I have no idea how many of his own he has killed but a lot, I suspect, as they actually believe his stuff about covid-19 just going away, children don't get it, its a hoax, etc.

My suspicion is that he has killed a lot of his own but I would really like him gone before he goes to work on me (or even you!).
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/06/20 10:22 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
So what's the breakdown this year? Neither candidate is worth a flying poke at a rolling doughnut. I suppose there are people who actually WANT Joe Biden to be president. I'm not among them.

I know there are some who WANT Trump to win a second term. I'm certainly not among those either.

A beauty contest? Between septuagenarians? Is there gonna be a swimsuit portion?

America loses if either candidate is elected. But I'm afraid the America we have known and loved is lost anyway.
Okay, as of 4 Aug 2020. First all adults, Trump 40% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Biden 43% favorable, 49% unfavorable. Second, registered voters, Trump 41% favorable, 58% unfavorable. Biden 49% favorable, 49% unfavorable. Third, I always like to include independents and independents only as they make up 40% of the electorate today, Trump 35% favorable, 57% unfavorable. Biden 32% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

Go back to 2016 with Hillary Clinton, election day. She was seen 38% favorable, 56% unfavorable, but among independents and independents only, 27% favorable 70% unfavorable.

Side by side, nationally registered voters, favorable, Clinton 38%, Biden 49% favorable, national registered voters, unfavorable, Clinton 56% unfavorable, Biden 49%. Finally, independents, favorable Clinton 27%, Biden 32%, independents unfavorable, Clinton 70%, Biden 51%.

51% isn't anything to crow about in the independent unfavorable column, that's a majority of independents who view Biden unfavorably. But compared to Hillary Clinton's 70%, that is great news. Biden is doing better among the beauty contest voters. Today's or as of 4 Aug 2020, Trump is at the same 57% unfavorable among independents as he was back in Nov 2016.

Fact is though, independents are still very much in flux. they don't like Trump much, but are still up in the air over Biden.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/20 12:58 AM
"Up in the air" is just another way of saying they don't like him.

His VP pick is important and I think he's gonna blow it.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/20 12:58 PM
I totally agree, Biden's VP pick has the possibility to make or break him especially because of his age and what seems a lack of vitality. The question is does Biden concentrate on the progressive wing in choosing his VP, a wing that is going to vote for him anyway, perhaps add a point or two to his popular vote total. Or does he take independents into consideration, make a pick that would be attractive to them. A pick with the idea of winning the independent vote which according to Gallup and Pew Research make up 40% of the electorate today.

I do think most have forgotten it wasn't the progressive wing or Sanders supporters that cost Hillary the election. It was independents which she totally ignored. Independents put Trump in the White House especially when it came to the three deciding states which in all three Democrats had at least a 10 point advantage in Party affiliation. Trump won the independent vote in Pennsylvania 48-41, in Michigan 52-35 and in Wisconsin 50-40. Nationwide it was 46-42 Trump over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates.

Yes, I do think the right choice could lock up independents, the wrong choice would send some who now say they'll support Biden back to Trump or into voting third party once again. Very important, indeed.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/20 03:23 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I totally agree, Biden's VP pick has the possibility to make or break him especially because of his age and what seems a lack of vitality.
Please. Trump is 74, can't drink a glass of water with one hand, can't walk down a 3-degree ramp and slurs his words.

rolleyes
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/20 03:50 PM
Perceptions my friend. Politics is all about perceptions. Trump seems much more vigor and energetic than Biden. You can ignore how people, voters if you will perceive the candidates, whether their perception is right or wrong, it doesn't really matter. It is their impressions and perceptions that will decide this beauty contest. Especially how independents vote.

As history shows, Republicans and Democrats are going to vote for their candidate on average, 90% of the time. Independents drift wildly from one side to the other and at times going a third way, ala 2016.
Rachel Maddow notes an particularly specific warning from the director of the ODNI's National Counterintelligence and Security Center that "pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption" as part of Russia's efforts to manipulate the 2020 U.S. election against Joe Biden and in support of Donald Trump. Derkach has not only been using Rudy Giuliani to spread his claims, but Republican senators Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley have also been receptive to the Russian tactic.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/20 11:46 PM
The president just sidestepped congress with a relief package that's going to appear populist and win him some of those up in the air independents.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/08/20 11:53 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Rachel Maddow notes an particularly specific warning from the director of the ODNI's National Counterintelligence and Security Center that "pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption" as part of Russia's efforts to manipulate the 2020 U.S. election against Joe Biden and in support of Donald Trump. Derkach has not only been using Rudy Giuliani to spread his claims, but Republican senators Ron Johnson and Chuck Grassley have also been receptive to the Russian tactic.

When told that the Russians were interfering with the election Trump said "I don't care."
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/20 04:36 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
The president just sidestepped congress with a relief package that's going to appear populist and win him some of those up in the air independents.
Except only one was an actual EO and the other three were just mere memorandums. The actual EO will in effect begin to defund Social Security and Medicare. Wait until the oldz find out about that.

Also too, this "tax holiday" has a pay back date of next year when Biden will be president. Hmm
Defund Social Security & Medicare? And he promises to make those cuts permanent if reelected! Way to go, dummy! You just blew off your whole foot with that shotgun. A lot of retired folks voted for Trump in 2016. Not any more.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/20 05:33 PM
All of us "olds" who should be offended assume that this will not effect OUR checks or OUR Medicare. Only those entitled Millenials who don't deserve it anyway will lose out when they retire. If they made the right decisions like we did they wouldn't need government handouts anyway!

I suspect this is neither legal nor possible for a president to do alone.

But to the politically illiterate the whole thing looks like the president is doing the working class a favor.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/09/20 07:02 PM
The really strange thing is that the Democrats are not attacking Trump on this stuff. This is just the latest of a LOT of attacks on Medicare, Social Security, and the Post Office. I was going to list some of this stuff but I will do that in a posting of links.
Trump just did that yesterday. AARP will start mailing out letters soon, but they can't do it in one day. By election day, everybody dependent on Social Security and Medicare will know Trump has promised to cut them permanently.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/10/20 09:40 AM

Donnie Dumbass signed three pandemic-related memorandums and an executive order Saturday and referred to them twice as "bills." Somebody needs a "SchoolHouse Rock" refresher. smile

No difference when you have a dicktatorship.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/20 12:30 AM
Quote
The really strange thing is that the Democrats are not attacking Trump on this stuff.
Speaker Pelosi called it "absurdly unconstitutional". To me that's kind of an attack on Presidential powers by the highest Democrat in the land.

Quote
“We’re disappointed that instead of putting in the work to solve Americans’ problems, the president instead chose to stay on his luxury golf course to announce unworkable, weak and narrow policy announcements to slash the unemployment benefits that millions desperately need and endanger seniors’ Social Security and Medicare,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a joint statement.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/20 12:30 PM
So what is Pelosi going to do about it? I agree they seem unconstitutional. Only congress can authorize the spending of money and withholding payroll taxes.

Democrats shy from leading court fight over Trump orders

https://thehill.com/regulation/cour...om-leading-court-fight-over-trump-orders

Congress has been ceding their constitutional powers to the administration and other government agencies for the last 50 years or even longer. It's become so that members of congress that are of the same party of the president are more part of the administration than members of the institutions of the House and Senate.

This also puts the Democratic House members between a rock and a hard place. Challenging the executive order and the other memo's could very well give the voters the perspective the Democrats are against the 400 dollars unemployment, the payroll tax, the deferment of student loans. Knowing there would be a ton of political ads portraying the Democrats of this could be, I said could be the prime reason they're not challenging this in court.

There was a time when speakers like Sam Rayburn, Mike McCormick and Carl Albert didn't give a dang which party the president was from, they weren't about to cede any of the House's constitutional powers. That has all changed. Showing my age here.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/20 03:08 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
So what is Pelosi going to do about it? I agree they seem unconstitutional. Only congress can authorize the spending of money and withholding payroll taxes.
'Nuff said. No one is talking about how something the President can't do will ever happen.

There are no procedural mechanisms in place to carry out Trump's EO and Memoranda. Public employees would have to violate Federal laws to implement King Kon's scams. Who will sign the checks? Trump isn't a signer on the accounts.

I don't think his grand stunt had any plan to become reality, it's just a bait and switch for the ignorant and gullible. There are numerous failure dodges built in, where it will be someone else's fault if his boolshit doesn't materialize into helping anyone. Each document has a laundry list of boilerplate contingencies built in that assure the sturm und drang will be much ado about nothing.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/20 04:54 PM
We'll see. But I think it is much more than just a PR gimmick.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/20 06:11 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Who will sign the checks? Trump isn't a signer on the accounts.

The same two President Donald (...) Trump* political appointees, whose signatures appear on every dollar bill issued in the last few years. No they are dollars I could burn.

Sectary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin.
Treasurer of the United States Jovita Carranza


*Impeached

and the Lawsuits keep rolling along... Just think we may have our first convicted criminal ex-president...
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/11/20 11:42 PM
As to the memoranda and the EO:

* My company is saying "no" to not withholding payroll taxes. Why would anyone want to go through that bookkeeping hell and then have to spit out a lump some in December or January?

* Even if he could redirect the FEMA funds, they would run out in 5 weeks and the states (who have no money) are on the hook for 25%. How exactly are they supposed to implement this inanity?

* The eviction freeze is nothing of the sort. It directs some agencies to look into implementing an eviction freeze.

As with everything Trump, it's a bunch of sound and fury signifying nothing.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/12/20 04:45 AM
But Trump knows that it's all about perception. The gesture was entirely symbolic, it's all smoke and mirrors aimed at getting votes.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/12/20 12:19 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
But Trump knows that it's all about perception. The gesture was entirely symbolic, it's all smoke and mirrors aimed at getting votes.
Exactly. Trump is all about making the sale and doesn’t give a shiit about delivering a quality product (or any product at all).

On the subject of voting by mail, Trump and DeJoy may be right - the USPS should be run more like a business, and shouldn’t be propped up to deliver “mail” in an antiquated way.

I agree that we should be voting by email, rather than snail mail, and especially instead of actually physically showing up at some polling site where there are so many clumsy inefficiencies in process and handling. (Think of the wasted time and gas, not to mention the wide open opportunities for fraud, what with the incredible availability of hats, realistic masks, and fake moustaches from Amazon with free one-day shipping. I hear from good authority that people are voting in person six, eight, sometimes a hundred times that way!)

A basic Doodle Poll is the correct model of modern elections. No waiting, no miscounting by corrupt Democrats, and the results would be emailed to everyone... sweet!
In the years before the insane pension funding fiasco, the USPS actually was making a profit. Then Republicans passed a bill that the USPS, unlike any other federal agency or business, had to fully fund the pension benefits 75 years out. This was a blatant attempt to kill the USPS, in favor of businesses like Fedex.

If Democrats win it all, they could change that to more reasonable requirements and then the USPS would be profitable again.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/20 03:09 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
In the years before the insane pension funding fiasco, the USPS actually was making a profit. Then Republicans passed a bill that the USPS, unlike any other federal agency or business, had to fully fund the pension benefits 75 years out. This was a blatant attempt to kill the USPS, in favor of businesses like Fedex.

If Democrats win it all, they could change that to more reasonable requirements and then the USPS would be profitable again.
ReTHUGlicons hate government and do everything they can think of to fck it up. Then they say...see? it doesn't work.

mad
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/20 04:35 PM
Our governmental system doesn't really have adequate "checks and balances" to address an Executive that is as willing to aggressively violate the law. It anticipates "men of honor" occupying offices of responsibility. Although the framers anticipated some efforts to evade the laws and norms, some danger from demagogues, they did not anticipate the all-out assault and willingness to destroy the government itself in pursuit of that effort.

Trump has taken numerous actions to literally destroy our democratic forms. It will take more than a single presidential term to fix all that he has broken. If we cannot gain control over the mechanisms of Democracy before this election, we may end this experiment in a messy, messy disaster.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/20 08:04 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
...It anticipates "men of honor" occupying offices of responsibility...
That would leave any conservative out of running. coffee
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/20 09:07 PM
I think it's time for a new impeachment hearing...
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/20 10:10 PM
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
I think it's time for a new impeachment hearing...

For impeachment to succeed, in rough numbers, you need at least 60% of all Americans in favor of it, 30% of the party of the president to be impeached also in favor of impeachment along with 55% of independents.

These are the numbers on Nixon 2 days prior to his resignation. The numbers for Clinton's and Trump's impeachments never came close. Both failed.

Besides, the country is in no mood for another impeachment trial. If the country wants Trump gone, November will do nicely.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/13/20 11:12 PM

Fatboy is doing it again - he's now saying that Kamala is ineligible to be POTUS because both of her parents were foreign born. mad

What does Fatboy hate black Americans so much?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 12:16 AM
Harris was born in Oakland California and under the 14th amendment, that is enough. But accusing a political opponent being either foreign born or ineligible for the presidency isn't new.

There was a lawsuit filed and then withdrawn against Goldwater in 1964. He was born in the Arizona territory prior to Arizona becoming a state.

In 1968, George Romney, Mitt's father was accused to being ineligible to become president because he was born in Mexico. Both his parents were American citizens and were on a mission to Mexico for the Mormon Church. Nothing came of it since Romney failed to win the nomination.

John McCain was born in Panama, his parent were there on official United States military duty. There was talk about McCain also being being ineligible for the presidency being born outside of the U.S.

Remember Ted Cruz, born in Canada, he too was accused of being ineligible because of that.

Of course let's not forget the accusations against Obama for being born in Nigeria when he was born in Hawaii. Speaking of that, Chester A. Arthur was accused of being born in Canada, not Vermont in 1880. Add Charles Evans Hughes to the list, Hughes being accused of being born in Wales, he was born in New York State. Hughes challenged Wilson in 1916.

Now Harris is a first, no one is saying she was foreign born like all the others. She's ineligible just because both parents were foreign born. But this accusation of being ineligible can be traced all the way back to 1880.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 01:43 AM
Quote
I think it's time for a new impeachment hearing...

This congress shot their wad prematurely and then went limp.

If Democrats take the senate and keep the house but Trump gets re-elected in a contested election then the next congress might have another chance at impeachment. We'd have to be living in some sort of Bizarro World for that to happen though....oh...wait...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 01:55 AM
Claiming that the American born daughter of a Jamaican and an Indian national is ineligible is an entirely new thing though! All the others have been old racist white men. Except Obama of course. He's only half white.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 03:29 AM
If the trend holds the Democrats should have a net gain of 5-8 seats. Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, North Carolina are all either leaning or fairly solid Democrat. Montana, the 2 Georgia seats are close to 50-50 although leaning slightly Republican. Alabama is going to revert to the Republicans.

Even in the best case scenario the Democratic majority would be 54-46. You still need 67 votes for impeachment and removal. Which means at a minimum you still need 13 Republicans to join in to vote guilty and for removal. That a lot less than the 21 the Democrats needed last time.

You're not going to get them unless around 60% of all Americans favor impeachment and removal along with 30% of Republicans and 55% of independents. Public pressure has to be there. The problem with the Democrats last try was towards the end it began to look more like a political vendetta, revenge for losing an election.

The Democrats never had 50% of all Americans favoring impeachment, at their highest, only 17% of republicans favored impeachment which dropped down to 11% as the trial came to an end. Independents also dropped from 48% in favor in Nov down to 41% at the end. Far from the 60-30-55 needed to be successful.

The Democrats did a horrible job at convincing the people Trump committed an impeachable offense. A break in and cover up was easy to convince the people, they understood that. Lying to congress, obstruction of Justice, not so easy. Heck, congress lies to us everyday.

All one had to do was look at the numbers at the start to know impeachment didn't stand a snowball's chance in Hades of succeeding. I said so on another site and was pillared by Democrats for stating so. All I was doing was going by the numbers and stating what the numbers said. But that wasn't what they wanted to hear. I called it all a waste of time, energy and money. I still stand by that. Just like Bill Clinton's impeachment and trial was a waste of time, energy and money. Neither had a chance of success.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 04:50 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Fatboy is doing it again - now Kamala is ineligible to be POTUS because both of her parents were foreign born. mad

What does Fatboy hate black Americans so much?
I knew that was going to happen. he can't keep his racism and xenophobia in check.
Quote
The problem with the Democrats last try was towards the end it began to look more like a political vendetta, revenge for losing an election.

A major GOP and Fox News talking point. No Democrats actually felt that way. It was a lot more about Mueller's several instances of Obstruction of Justice, that he (a Republican, no less) said Congress could hold Trump accountable for. But Pelosi did not want to charge him with something he can be criminally indicted for next year.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 05:15 AM
I will never agree that the impeachment was a waste of time, energy and money. As a prosecutor, I only looked at whether the evidence established the charge, not whether it could be won. Sometimes one has to take a dog of a case to trial, even when you know you will likely lose. I think the failed impeachment demonstrated the absolute obeisance of the Senate to Trump, as everyone was perfectly aware he was guilty. He was, and is, guilty of so much more. And, I believe that the impeachment may be largely responsible for his standing now. Yes, the COVID crisis has emphasized his incompetence and corruption, but the hearings, charges and joke of a Senate mistrial, I think, has forever tarnished the Republican Senators - with the exception of Romney. I think the peril Republicans have in the Senate is a direct result of the failed impeachment.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 01:21 PM
Politics to include impeachment is all about perceptions of the people that they have for the candidates, the political parties and the president. Impeachment is a political process, not necessarily a legal one in the sense we see with a judge and jury trial. There's no doubt that every Democrat and every Republican had their minds made up prior to any vote from the initial House opening investigation to the trials end. The results were never in doubt.

Tarnished Republican Senators, no. Impeachment is ancient history. It will go down in the history books as a footnote, an asterisk next to Trump's name just like Bill Clinton's. Impeachment has nothing to do with Trump's standing for this election, it isn't even an issue. It's long forgotten by the average American except for folks on sites like this one.

Right now it is the Pandemic and Trump's obnoxious personality and his childish antics, his very unpresidential behavior that are the driving force for the upcoming election. That could change, but I doubt it. In the end it will come down to how independents view Trump, their perception of him more so than their perception of Biden or anything else.

Right now averaging all the polls available on RCP, independents are relative divided between Biden and Trump. Biden 40%, Trump 38%, other 10% undecided, not sure 12%. That's close. But close is okay, the Democratic Party is still the larger of the two major parties and as long as they keep the independent vote close, they win. The Republicans must win the independent vote or lose the election. They probably need to win independents by around 5-6 points to even things out. Remember Trump won independents by 4 points in 2016 and still lost the popular vote by 2. Obama in 2012 lost the independent vote by 3 points and still won by 4. Having the larger party is a great advantage.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 04:25 PM
You misapprehend my point, my friend, for which I take responsibility. Impeachment was the incident that began the erosion. The pandemic is the flood, but the impeachment was the breach in the dikes that allowed the flood waters to stream through.

Impeachment was the moment people began to pay attention to the behavior of the President and, more importantly, their legislators. The pandemic arrived in time to keep the focus on their behavior. Republicans at all levels are being viewed with disfavor through the lens of Trumpism because they have kowtowed to Trump and his views, and they are being judged for how incompetent they all are.

Yes, there are still loyal sycophants like Noem and DeSantis and Kemp, but they are being viewed with a new perspective. After the Sturgis debacle takes root in other communities the wave will become a tsunami. I don't know how long it will last, but the damage to the GOP will be intense.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 04:52 PM
I think folks have paid attention to Trump's childish antics, his unpresidential behavior since he first took office. I really think a lot of folks thought Trump would change. His schoolyard bullying, name calling, feuds, etc during the campaign was just that, a campaign tactic.

The midterms in 2018 I think proved folks had recognized the true nature of Trump's personality. The midterms were a show of displeasure of Trump more than an appreciation of the congressional Democrats. This election is a continuation of that. More about getting rid of the man-child than electing Democrats. I doubt when the Democrats win they will recognize this.

The disapproval of both major parties is still very high. They dislike the GOP more than the Democratic Party at the moment, probably because of Trump. Tread carefully here, just because they dislike one party more than the other doesn't mean they like the other either.

Looking at the recent wave elections, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 none of them was because most Americans liked or wanted the out of power party, they were just very dissatisfied and even angry at the party in power. You have to go back to 1948 for the last wave election prior to 1994. So historically, wave elections don't take place very often. at least they used not to. To have 4 in 12 years and 5 in 24 is highly unusual. Then again, these wave election may reflect the increase in the number, percentage of independents and the shrinking of both major parties as people are becoming more and more annoyed with them. If annoyed is the right word.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 07:41 PM
Quote
Impeachment was the moment people began to pay attention

There's some truth to that. It takes a lot to get "people" to actually pay attention to politics at all, except for the punch lines on late night tv.

I'm obsessed with politics. It's a dark game played with real lives. It's real children that are starving while the aristocrats enjoy luxuries beyond our imagination. Like dragons sitting on their hoard of wealth they think nothing of the scorched countryside and the bleached bones.

The Will of The People is broken. It's beyond their control, like the weather. Voting is a meaningless gesture when a candidate wins by Three Million votes but loses the election.

Millions upon millions will sit home November 3rd because they literally don't give a f*ck.

Impeachment was a spectacle. It turned heads, most didn't understand it because they didn't know the rules. But they knew there would be winners and losers so the game was on. He got impeached...but it meant nothing and changed nothing.

Trump won. Boring.

Election coming up...Biden vs Trump...again it's a competition so everybody kind of watches the race but doesn't really care who wins.

Like slaves before the whip, they have little time or attention to spare for their bosses fighting in luxurious offices over their rations of gruel. They no longer have hope they will thrive or prosper and struggle only to survive.

This is where we find ourselves.

And the obeisance of the Republican Party to the fat lazy fraud is astounding. That there is even a debatable chance he might win this upcoming election is more than I can fathom.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/14/20 08:49 PM
Just received this from Gallup.

"25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President"

https://news.gallup.com/poll/317474...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

The problem is Gallup didn't include independents like they did in 2016. Here's the 2016 one if you want to compare.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

They're a bit different. 2016 was about likes and dislikes, 2020 is about being a good president or not. Interesting nonetheless.

Beware, I have found this site full of democrats and one lone wolf, non-partisan swing voter. Don't assume the opinions of just Democrats are the opinions of all Americans. Their perceptions of events and candidates can be completely the opposite of those who belong and adhere to the philosophies of each major party.

Actually it fascinates me, it's very interesting to get your view points in a very friendly manner. I've learned some and hope some of what I passed on might give you an insight that politics is all about impressions and perspectives. Especially among the less to non-partisans who we call independents who now make up 40% of the electorate.

This place is addictive.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 02:02 AM
Quote
"25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President"
And they would be right. We have sufficient proof that Trump is a terrible president. Biden might be the best guy for the job right now because he's just a placeholder with no chance of a second term. I don't think Biden will be a bad president...I just don't think he will be a good one.

Quote
This place is addictive.

It's a shame more haven't stuck around. We don't have an admin anymore so we can't accept any new members and I'm not going to do it. Three in a row died and the last one went crazy.
Quote
Tarnished Republican Senators, no.

Well, we'll see in about 81 days if Republican Senators are tarnished or not. Considering their behavior supporting Trump at his worst and the current polls about Senate races, I think they are more than tarnished. I think I can smell the corruption from the West coast.

Mitch seems to think they are above the law, just like Trump. I doubt many are going to vote for Biden but vote to keep their craven Republican senator. Even Susan Collins is in trouble, and she poses as a fair-minded and reasonable independent agent.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 12:36 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
"25% in U.S. Say Neither Candidate Would Be a Good President"
And they would be right. We have sufficient proof that Trump is a terrible president. Biden might be the best guy for the job right now because he's just a placeholder with no chance of a second term. I don't think Biden will be a bad president...I just don't think he will be a good one.

Quote
This place is addictive.

It's a shame more haven't stuck around. We don't have an admin anymore so we can't accept any new members and I'm not going to do it. Three in a row died and the last one went crazy.
I think after Trump, a caretaker or a place holder is exactly what most Americans want. Someone to bring sanity and normalcy back to the country and having a president who will actually act like a president instead of a WWE wrestler in a pre-fight interview to the white house.

I don't think at least for the first couple of years most Americans want a ton of new programs. They just want a chance to get back into their comfort zone which Trump took them out of. Not by his programs or policies, but by his unruly and very distasteful behavior. By his childish antics of throwing temper tantrums, calling other names, being the third grade schoolyard bully.

Pushing a bunch of new programs through in the first two years would be a bad political mistake in my opinion. The country as a whole isn't ready for that. This election so far has been all about getting rid of Trump, not electing Biden or Democrats. But I fear the Democrats, especially in congress won't see it that way, they'll take it as a mandate for a host of new Democratic programs and not as an election to get rid of Trump and company. If the Dems don't pay heed, another 2010 will be the most likely outcome for 2022.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 12:50 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
Tarnished Republican Senators, no.

Well, we'll see in about 81 days if Republican Senators are tarnished or not. Considering their behavior supporting Trump at his worst and the current polls about Senate races, I think they are more than tarnished. I think I can smell the corruption from the West coast.

Mitch seems to think they are above the law, just like Trump. I doubt many are going to vote for Biden but vote to keep their craven Republican senator. Even Susan Collins is in trouble, and she poses as a fair-minded and reasonable independent agent.

as of today, I see Alabama returning to the Republicans. Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa going to the democrats. Keep an eye on both Georgia's senate races, a good possibility for those to switch also. Montana which looked like a Democratic pickup 3 weeks ago doesn't anymore. Montana will stay red.

It's not that their impeachment vote tarnished these senators, except in Colorado and possibly Maine. They voted their constituents or the majority of the people in their states wishes which was not guilty. It's basically that they want to be rid of Trump and anyone associated with him.

Presidential election years are all about the president or the candidates at the top, midterms become about senators and congressmen. A good presidential candidate can have coat tails which brings in a bunch of new congress critters that normally would have lost. The reverse is also true, a presidential candidate that the people want to get rid of has reverse coat tails and takes down a bunch of congress critters of his own party that in a non-presidential election, they wouldn't have lost.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 04:24 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
...Montana will stay red...
As long as the Governor is Dem and the new Senator is Dem, I'm ok with Montana going for a loser like Trump.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 05:48 PM
Perhaps some bad news for you on Montana. In the governor's race Greg
Gianforte, the Republicans is up by an average of 6 points. Daines the Republican has moved from 4 points behind Bullock on 15 July to 5 points ahead today. Trump has a nine point lead there. Which is really small considering Montana usually goes Republican in presidential races by 15-20 points.

Even so, Montana has a habit of electing Democrats as governors and senators. Kind of weird, but that's Montana. Since 1964 Montana has gone Democratic in a presidential race just once. 1992 for Bill Clinton.
Quote
Pushing a bunch of new programs through in the first two years would be a bad political mistake in my opinion.

I doubt Democrats will have the time or energy to do much but fix all the stuff Trump has broken during their first two years. Maybe in the second half, but Democratic (especially mainstream Democratic) ideas are not all that radical. Maybe we get ACA fixed, Medicare expanded in more states, and a public option. But those only affect the people who need them. It wouldn't be like Medicare For All or giving everybody a minimum income.

I guess "free college" is the other big green idea: But I think that can happen very gradually, through existing programs. What we end up with is reduced tuition at state colleges and universities for students with good GPAs. Rather like what we had in the 1950 - 2000 era.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 07:51 PM
Quote
This election so far has been all about getting rid of Trump, not electing Biden or Democrats.

Most of the other candidates actually had plans for the country and boldly announced them. Even Harris ran on progressive platform.
Biden never promised anything except that he could beat Trump.

He stole his biggest line from Senator Elizabeth Warren...An economy that works for everyone. He's cherry picked the progressive agenda for talking points without substance.

Americans, including yourself, Pero, are scared of candidates with visions or plans. Scared of leaders who will lead us out of this mess. Scared of candidates who want to give the power back to the people as it was promised in the Constitution.

The only way a new government could impress you was if they did nothing for the first two years in power.

No liveable wage.

No healthcare for the poor.

No relief from oppressive "college loans".

No movement on immigration

No climate change mitigation

No police reformation

No Cuts to military spending

(and read my lips)
NO NEW TAXES

You gonna be a happy man with Biden and Harris! because your gonna get none of that and more!

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 08:14 PM
If I thought for one minute that America was going to use the next four years to lick it's wounds and heal from the Trump years I'd be all in.

But the war between the parties will not even slow down.

Two years of inactivity followed by two years of controversy followed by Ivanka VS Kamala....

Perhaps you have a different vision of a future based on maintaining an unsustainable status quo?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 08:39 PM
We'll see. If the Democrats go down your road, I would wager we have another 2010 in 2022. I don't think you realize how many Americans like living in their comfort zone. That they dislike the unknown. It takes time to educate and convince.

I would estimate that only around a third of America thinks like you. I will add this as an old military guy. You could cut 100 billion out of the military budget and not harm our security, our defense or ability to defend this country one bit. That is if congress stopped using the military as a civilian jobs creator and maintainer. There's been numerous times that the military and the JCS has stated they didn't need this weapon's program, this system, more of these planes, more equipment etc. only to have congress pass those projects anyway. Then they return home and tell the folks in their home district and state about all the civilian jobs they provided and kept.

Have you ever went to a DRMO auction? Stuff the military had sitting in warehouses, never used, brand new usually get auctioned off. Last year I bought 3 lap tops, still in their original box, unopened, but with Windows 7 on them for 46 dollars. 3 brand new, new never used laptops for 46 dollars. I wonder how much the military paid for them and then paid for storage? Heck, we have a company north of Atlanta still making C-130's.

Yeah, come to think of it, I like the status quo. I like knowing what awaits around the corner. I like knowing what to expect and what any new program passed will effect me, good, bad, indifferent. I like knowing. Knowing is my comfort zone. I don't like taking gigantic leaps off into the unknown, totally ignorant on how any of these new programs, legislation etc will affect me and my loved ones. I want time to digest them, not wham, bang, thank you Ma'am forced legislation and programs through for just a third of the nation can be happy.

Give Biden time to start the learning curve. To let America know what to expect. But both of us know that won't happened. yep, another 2010 in 2022 and that's the end of anything and everything else. Just remember, America as a whole, all Americans today dislike the Republican Party a bit more than they dislike the Democratic party. Come 2022, they'll be disliking the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party and will return them to control in the House. Time, education, taking the unknown out of it so most Americans will be comfortable with it. But that's not for you.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 10:07 PM
You like the status quo because you, just like me, are living the socialist dream. Government takes care of all our needs and we pretty much lack for nothing.

I enjoy it too! But pull your head out of the sand and take a look around! It's un-sustainable. We can no longer pretend that life is just going to be hunky dory and we never have to address any of the above issues. Climate change is real. Sea level rise is real. Plastic pollution is killing our seas and fisheries. Emissions are changing the atmosphere and warming the planet. There is nowhere in the United States where minimum wage will pay for room and board. Everybody is in debt up to their asses...and that was before the pandemic hit.

All those things can't be implemented at once, but maybe one of them could be...?

Nawp. Not even one of them...Biden's job is going to be filling all the jobs that Trump simply hasn't bothered to fill. He has let entire departments shrivel to nothing because he has no interest in them. He places a crony at the top and let's them decimate the whole thing. Our state department is in shambles and the post office headed that way quickly. The environmental protection agency has become the enemy of the environment...

So for Biden it's all gonna be a bunch of hiring and firing for a long time. Harris should be well equipped to handle most of that, she's a ruthless super-cop.

But that's all at the top executive level. What's going to be happening in the legislative sense after the election and assuming Democrats take over.

With a Democratic senate the house will be able to draft bills and see them through the senate rather than an ignominious death on the Leaders desk.

I suspect the cojones with which they drafted bills they knew would never see the light of day will shrivel and they will not be so bold.

I don't see much on the legislative front because Biden hasn't stood for anything or championed any cause except a partisan victory.

He's a labor unionist in a post union world.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/15/20 10:49 PM
Yeah, I pretty much lack for nothing, but most of that was because of the decisions I made in my life. A lot more right than wrong. Then again it wasn't my decision to get drafted. But once I did I found out being in the army wasn't bad, in fact it was easier than working on the farm during the day and in an old pig iron foundry at night. So I made it a career.

Once the people get out of the whirlpool onto dry land from the antics of Trump, I just don't think they want to be thrown right back into that whirlpool with a ton of new programs. They want a time to dry off first and get to know what it means to be back on solid ground.

Immigration reform would be nice and needed. Coming up with a plan to give those who don't have health insurance, insurance without upending the whole apple cart would be good.

I'm not against many of the things you mentioned. I'm saying be careful or you'll be back on the outside in a heartbeat. If you're going to take folks out of their comfort zone, they better understand why and they better be informed what comes next.

I've seen way too many presidents who's party controlled congress go off and pass things their party's base wanted without informing America as a whole to what lies ahead so all Americans would understand it. It's became a one and done when the first midterm came around.

This happened to Bill Clinton and to Obama. Both took their base priorities, got them passed and both lost congress. People need to be informed so they understand what's coming.



Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/20 01:22 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
If you're going to take folks out of their comfort zone...
Which is mostly older conservative Americans. Turmp had killed 168K of them to date. It'll be different America when Biden takes office thanks to Trump's incompetence. smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/20 02:34 AM
I'm old and, as socialists go, I'm pretty conservative. If me and a million like me fall over dead it will be no particular loss to the world. Probably a net gain as far as my political agenda is concerned too.

Gen Z will be voting for the first time this year, the oldest of them are about 22...my millenial daughter tells me they're worse than regular socialists....they're f*cking little commies. It warmed my heart to hear such praise of the new generation! And it gives me hope for the future.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/20 04:36 AM

Us Get X'ers are the lost generations. Nobody has ever given us a second look. gobsmacked
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/16/20 09:59 PM
What I hope the Democrats do, is to establish a job corps. They did it in the great depression and they could do it again. We are, right now, starting to creating millions of unemployed. A job corps would provide employment where there is none and not likely to have any for some time.

We really need to fix our infrastructure and that could be a start on that one. Remember Eisenhower, right after WWII started the trans-american highway. That was, and remains, the biggest expenditure in the history of the nation and that was started in the face of the debt from WWII and, I have been told, was responsible, at least in part, for fixing that debt.

Just saying............

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 12:50 AM
Quote
A job corps would provide employment where there is none and not likely to have any for some time.

And how are we supposed to pay for that? Would they be in direct competition with the prison workforce? Slave labor, by it's very nature is free. Paying these jobless poors to do the work that prisoners can do for less would be ridiculous. It would be like bringing jobs back from China!

Democrats will do no such thing. They didn't when Obama inherited the last jobs crisis and they won't this time. Perhaps America's biggest mistake is in thinking Democrats will do something about anything. Every time they get elected they do nothing then get beaten by Republicans for doing nothing.
Quote
doing nothing
ACA was the exact opposite of "doing nothing", and they lost congress because of it. So I doubt it works the way you claim.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 01:14 AM
Yeah, when jobs were first and foremost in people's minds, democrats delivered a health care bill that Republicans wrote, nobody liked, and it cost Democrats dearly. Perhaps you've noticed that people are still scrambling for healthcare? And that the ACA accomplished exactly nothing?
ACA and it's expanded Medicare program insured millions of people who could not afford it before, and essentially ended medical bankruptcies. People are still complaining about the high cost of medical care, but that not what ACA was about. Most of the people complaining can't explain how it could be improved, just like Trump. I've also discovered that most of those claiming they can't afford ACA coverage would be so subsidized, they would get it for free.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 04:14 AM
So all this stuff about Medicare for All is just hot air since ACA solved everything? And all those folks who just lost their insurance with their jobs just need to call ACA and they'll be covered?

It was a crappy bill that cost Democrats dearly. They should have been keeping people in their homes, providing safety nets during the great recession, and pushing a jobs bill rather than bailing out bankers and billionaires and forcing a crappy healthcare bill down everyone's throat. The backlash was severe and the end product flawed.

I think we could effectively blame the ACA for the circumstances that got us Donald Trump. It just wasn't worth it.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 04:18 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Us Get X'ers are the lost generations. Nobody has ever given us a second look. gobsmacked

XGen never deserved a second look. Boomer mini mes. Every karen everywhere is xGen.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 11:58 AM
Numbers comparison 2016 to 2020 on 17 August using RCP averages.
2016 Clinton 43.5%, Trump 37.3%, third party 11.4%, undecided 7.8%
2020 Biden 49.8%, Trump 42.3%, third party 4.0%, undecided 3.9%

Roughly, Biden is up by 6 over where Clinton stood back in 2016, Trump is up by 5 from where he stood in 2016. Third Party down by 7 and undecided’s down by 4. Unlike 2016, a lot more folks have made up their minds on who to vote for this year. There isn’t that big pool of voters in the third party/undecided column, 19.2% for Trump to pull from to overcome Biden’s 7.5-point lead, only 7.9% as of today in the third party/undecided column. In 2016 Trump had a pool of roughly 19% to pull from to overcome Clinton 6-point lead, this year that pool is 8% to overcome a 7.5-point Biden lead. That in my opinion is the huge difference between 2016 and 2020.

This has nothing to do with the horse race numbers, Clinton’s 6-point lead vs. Biden’s 7. It has everything to do with the pool, the number left to overcome those lead. For me, the most important numbers are 19.2 vs 7.9. In 2016 Trump didn’t need to switch one Hillary supporter to his side, he had that huge pool of 19.2 to draw from. In 2020, Trump needs to change some Biden supporters’ minds, he needs to convince them to jump from Biden to him as his pool of third party/undecided’s isn’t big enough without Trump swaying some Biden supporters away from him. This he didn’t need to do with Clinton supporters in 2016. Which made making up the deficit much easier and more doable. It will be much harder this year, maybe, just maybe depending on what happens between now and election day, maybe not doable at all. Time will tell.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 12:28 PM
Comparing the all important independent vote.

Independents
2016 Clinton 32%, Trump 37%, Johnson 8%, Stein 5%, (total third-party vote 13%) undecided 17%
2020 Biden 39%, Trump 38%, third party 10%, undecided 12%

Independents Biden 7 point better than Clinton, Trump a plus one point from 2016, third party, down 3 points, undecided down 5 points.
Quote
all those folks who just lost their insurance with their jobs just need to call ACA and they'll be covered?

As a matter of fact, yes! Losing a job that supplies health insurance means you can sign up for ACA immediately, and they will put you in the Medicaid system if that was your only income. If you had a two income family, you will probably end up on subsidized ACA. Since I've been retired (and on Medicare) my wife's ACA has been free the first year, and about $80 a month the second. Now that she's on Medicare she has to pay more and get less!

Medicare For All would just be a bit simpler and save about 15% for people with high income who have to pay. It would NOT give everybody free medical coverage. Even Medicare as we have now costs money for people who can afford to pay it, and even more for people with a lot of income.

People say ACA was a crappy bill, but they are evenly divided between Republicans who don't want poor people to get any benefits and Socialists who want free medical care for everybody. Then there are a lot of complaints about the high cost of health care, which is a different problem all together. ACA is a medical insurance access law. Costs are determined between your provider and your insurer.
There is one problem with ACA: It starts at 138% of the poverty line and the bill writers included a generous Medicaid expansion provision that would have the federal government pay most the cost. In some states, the governor has chosen NOT to accept that gift just to screw poor people who work, and to try to sabotage ACA. So Medicaid is free, then there is a gap with no coverage, then ACA is free if you earn enough to qualify.

But that's on your governor and the fools who vote for them. Feel free to recall him or vote for a governor who isn't so petty and vindictive. Many Republican governors have accepted Medicaid expansion.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 07:06 PM
I would suggest you take a look at the job corps that they had in the great depression. They did EVERYTHING, built roads, painted pictures in post offices, etc. They were paid a living wage.

The alternative is to have millions of unemployed on the streets ripping everything to pieces. We are getting very close to that right now. its going to take a long time for all the jobs to come back. Google "great depression ccc"
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/17/20 07:10 PM
the Republicans wrote half of ACA not the whole thing. It was unpopular because, back then, just as now, people were determined to believe the worst due to also believing all the crap that the Republicans threw at it. Basically, just like now. When the Republican started dismantling it THEN they realized that they had been had and wanted it.

Sometimes our problems are self made and, unlike Trump, we get to pay the price for that.
2016 - 2018, Republicans had the chance to improve ACA. They couldn't! All the defects they tried to convince everyone about turned out to not be real. Trump finally just gave up and said: "Who knew it could be so complex?"

All the experts, that's who.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/18/20 01:39 AM
Shame the Democrats didn't listen to the experts when they wrote it.

Although they didn't actually write it at all...it was formerly known as Romneycare but then they let the Republicans tinker with it until it would no longer work, giving them everything they wanted and more in the hopes that some might vote for it...none did. It was all a trick.

Democrats shoved it up our asses and then lost control of congress because of it. Republicans are still laughing their asses off about how gullible Democrats were. Obama was neutered inside of two years.

Shame Democrats don't have the political skills to neuter Turmp.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/18/20 08:24 PM
I am hoping, should Trump go down, that the Dems have the common sense to realize that Covid-19, if nothing else, has proven that we have a healthcare system which is an failure, an embarrassment, has poor result against other systems and needs to be replaced.

My other hope is that they do not even so much as talk about it until they have the reins as that would only serve to give the righteous right ammunition to scare everybody with. They have, incidentally and so far, been able to tone down the rhetoric of the self proclaimed socialists, self proclaimed progressives, etc. Bernie, for instance, lost the Democratic nod because he insisted on being a socialist and there is simply no way he could have won the presidency for the same reason. The dedicated lefties just don't get it. They think they should be anointed and screw the election stuff and that's just not gonna happen. The trick is simple keep your powder dry, win the election and THEN have at it! If they can manage to keep their mouths shut the Left/Dems just might win!

Their error, I think, is that they believe everybody thinks like them because they rarely speak with anybody else. I have always believed that is the very worst thing that a politician can do because they get a screwed view of the world. This is doesn't just apply to an individual but groups of the like minded. If a politician, or group, is willing to listen to everybody that gives them a better picture of the reality they have to function in. Trumpies, for instance, only watch Trump news and only really speak to one another. I fear the socialist/progressive wing of the Dems are the same. The only real difference, between the two, is that the Trumpies were able to get rid of almost all Republicans that didn't agree with them. The Socialist/progessives of the Democratic party have, I think, made runs at that but have failed which is a good thing - otherwise we would be having a civil war right now!

Sorry - couldn't resist.....
It's not so much a healthcare system failure, as a lack of respect for science and public health instructions in the general population. In other countries where the people follow public health instructions, they have had MUCH better results. Here there are a lot of people, including the President, who see ignoring those instructions as a political right that must be exercised.

In some of those other countries, violating quarantine means prison, hefty fines, or corporal punishment. Here it gets you a snappy red cap and club membership.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/19/20 05:18 PM
I agree with what you are saying and I may have stated it wrong. What has happened is that our healthcare system has been put into stress and the chinks are showing and people are simply not getting the care they deserve (as breathing citizens). In Florida, right now, their hospitals are all plugged up and they haven't been exactly offering hospital procedures not related to Covid-19.

I also believe that there will be more pandemics and, hopefully, we will have learned our lesson by then. I know, Obama believed that and set up facilities to deal but Trump changed that one. Hopefully we have learned the results of voting in a n'er do well financial failure who starred in a show that portrayed pure baloney which everybody, apparently, thought was quite wonderful. We will see, in the fullness of time? (apologies - couldn't resist, love that phrase!)
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/19/20 06:26 PM
So, what if we lose a few million Americans to the virus? Will the other hundreds of millions suffer much for it? Or will commerce continue unabated as Americans must eat, pay their bills and work?
The stock market is doing remarkably well and so the President will be able to claim recovery is underway just before the election.

National polls show Biden with a shrinking lead and Republicans are excited about their candidate retaining his office for another 4 years!

The Democratic Convention had as many Republicans speaking as Democrats so their isn't an ideological difference between the parties any more to speak of.

Progressive Democrats were not even invited.
AOC is not a Progressive?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/19/20 08:52 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
AOC is not a Progressive?

97 seconds. Colin Powell got more time. John Kasich got more time.
Bill Clinton got more time.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 12:39 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
AOC is not a Progressive?
Okay, I'll bite, what is she?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 01:07 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
AOC is not a Progressive?

97 seconds. Colin Powell got more time. John Kasich got more time.
Bill Clinton got more time.
And I like all three of them. I rate Bill Clinton as the 3rd or 4th best president in my lifetime. Right behind IKE and JFK. Colin Powell, he was my CG at FORSCOM. I'd go to the moon and back for him. Kasich, in 2016 I started out supporting Jim Webb, when he didn't campaign, probably because the fix was in, I switch to Kasich. I would have voted for him. He has a head on his shoulder. I think he provides more of an American agenda than an agenda for either party. I ended up voting against both Trump and Hillary.

AOC,I'm very leery of her. I'd probably never vote for her. Not even against Trump. I have no qualms voting third party when I dislike both major party candidates. I have done so 5 times since 1968 when one had to be 21 to vote.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 04:04 AM
Democrats are aiming at your demographic, Pero, reckon you can swing the election for them without the left or the youth vote?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 12:33 PM
Let me put it this way, I've been left scratching my head in many elections due to the fact both parties always seem to ignore the independent voter, I call them swing voters. Independents put Trump into the White House while Hillary was busy trying to placate Sanders supporters. Not that Trump went after independents, he didn't. Independents basically voted for the candidate they least wanted to lose, not win, but least wanted to lose. What I don't understand is why both parties always seem to ignore a group of voters who according to Gallup make up 40% of the electorate today while concentrating on their base. Then again I'm not a member of either major party, so I have no idea of their inside thinking.

Independents gave the Democrats the House in 2018 by voting for the democratic congressional candidates 54-42. Independents gave the GOP the House back in 2010 by voting for Republican congressional candidates 56-37. Four year earlier they gave the house to the Democrats in 2016 voting for them by a 57-39 margin.

Obama won the presidency in 2008 because he won the independent vote 52-44 over McCain. Bush won in both 2000 and 2004 because he carried the independent vote 49-45 over Gore and 50-48 over Kerry.

All demographics make up the independent group, their ideology is a pure mixture of everything, so they're not monolithic. Perhaps it's hard to target them as a group because of that. Perhaps that is why they always get ignored.

So who is the left going to vote for if not Biden? Perhaps you're implying they'll stay home. I highly doubt that, they're too angry at Trump and anger is the prime get out to vote motivation force. I'm not worried about democrats turning out. What I'm worried is further shifts to the left turning off independents, the largest voting block at 40% of the electorate vs. 31% for Democrats and 26% for Republicans.

As I stated before, history shows that on average 90% of Republicans and Democrats will vote for their candidates regardless of who that is. Independents are in flux. But we have three types of independents, independents lean Democratic, independents lean Republican and independents with no leans, what I call pure or true independents. Those independents that lean toward one party or the other on average vote for the party's candidate they lean toward roughly 70% of the time. The true or pure independents, no one knows, they're all over the place and impossible to forecast.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 12:37 PM
AOC? She is a young turk; full of passion, ideas, principles as are all young people. She just needs some time to season, to baste in the world as it is, to grow under the tutelage of great political leadership such as Nancy Pelosi. I think we are seeing the growth of a future Speaker of the House, AOC just needs seasoning.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 02:24 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
...All demographics make up the independent group, their ideology is a pure mixture of everything, so they're not monolithic. Perhaps it's hard to target them as a group because of that. Perhaps that is why they always get ignored.

...The true or pure independents, no one knows, they're all over the place and impossible to forecast.
That makes it kinda difficult to appeal to them, I would think.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 06:21 PM
Originally Posted by Ujest Shurly
AOC? She is a young turk; full of passion, ideas, principles as are all young people. She just needs some time to season, to baste in the world as it is, to grow under the tutelage of great political leadership such as Nancy Pelosi. I think we are seeing the growth of a future Speaker of the House, AOC just needs seasoning.
Quite right! She's also growing under the tutelage of terrible leadership, Trump, McConnell, obstructive Democrats and centrists.

Quote
Democratic Party is torn between the corporate world, a college-educated white middle class and a multiracial working-class base, and is attempting to reconcile them with centrist reforms. In doing so, the Democratic Party is missing a chance for systemic change that can rescue the masses of people sliding into economic depression. Democrats may win the election, but they risk losing the future.
Link
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 06:30 PM
So far the Dems have been doing pretty good. They have encouraged Trump to keep on running his mouth and turning off supporters and they have also pretty much shut down the more mouthy of the so-called progressives so as not to offend the middle too much. Trump is tough! He has at least 30% of the voting public as a VERY SOLID base. I sincerely hope the Dems win and win big! All they really have to do is watch their mouths which it seems they are doing. If the Dems win they will certainly have their work cut out as there is a LOT to fix!

My wife has been glued to the so-called Democratic convention every night. I run and hide. I know how I am going to vote so I don't need any inspiration. She also knows but wants the inspiration (worked for the DNC when she was in college - political science and hooked on politics). I guess my only quibble with it all is that they are not really hitting as hard as he deserves to be hit. Obama, I am told, did a fair job of it but, for the most part, Trump is being almost ignored. Nobody, for instance, even bothers to mention that Americans are no longer welcomed in most of the world, including Canada and, now, even Mexico! We are also the laughing stock of the world. There are a bunch of details but those two thing kinda define it all. We have a president who publicly, and with some vigor, pointed out he is responsible for NOTHING! He REALLY needs to go and, hopefully, it can be done without a civil war which, I also believe, he is actually capable if he thinks he can pull it off.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 07:05 PM
Quote
But we have three types of independents, independents lean Democratic, independents lean Republican and independents with no leans, what I call pure or true independents.

I think you completely fail to grasp the scope of independents in the US. Fully 42% of eligible voters in the US DO NOT VOTE.
These are the "pure or true independents".
Some lean right, some lean left, none care about the dysfunctional failure of US governance enough to weigh in on election day.

A vote for any candidate is a vote for their party because no candidate stands truly independent.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 08:17 PM
I agree no major party candidate stands alone. It may very well be a vote for the party also, but a lot of independents don't look at it that way. I should call them swing voters instead of independents. We do have approximately 80% swing voters who lean toward one party or the other and they'll vote for that party's candidate around 70% of the time.

Then we have the last 20% who can flock to one candidate, party one election and then flock to the other candidate, party the next election. We've seen independents go Democratic 57-39 and four years later go Republican 56-37.

So perhaps we're not seeing these swing voters voting for a party as voting against a party.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 09:03 PM
Or voting for a charismatic candidate...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/20/20 09:05 PM
Charisma can pull the non-voters off the couch.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 01:42 AM
Charisma wins elections. The most charismatic in my life time was JFK, Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama. All won twice except JFK and I sure if he hadn't been assassinated, he easily would have won again in 1964.

There was no exit polling or a breakdown for the 1960 presidential election, so I can't include how swing voters/independents voted for JFK or not.

1980 Reagan won independents/swing voters 56-31 with Anderson getting 13%.
1984 Reagan won independents/swing voters 64-36.
1992 Bill Clinton won independents/swing voters 43-28 with Perot getting 30%.
1996 Bill Clinton won independents/swing voters 50-30 with Perot getting 17%
2008 Obama won independents/swing voters 52-44

Quote
he easily would have won again in 1964.

I bet they would have repealed the 22nd Amendment, if JFK was willing to serve a third or even fourth term. I remember it well. Camelot...
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 02:36 AM
Trump has charisma. His people are loyal and believe in him.

Joe Biden might once have cut a dashing figure, but his day is long past. Reminds me a bit of Prince Philip.

Maybe if Biden guarantees college loan forgiveness around mid October and a $15 minimum wage....he's already announced a plan to drop Medicare to 60 years, which might buy him some XGen votes.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 03:27 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
...he's already announced a plan to drop Medicare to 60 years, which might buy him some XGen votes.
I'm mid-range Gen-X, that wouldn't persuade me. My company's healthcare is pretty gold standard. I don't plan on retiring until I'm 70.

smile
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 12:37 PM
Trump? Charisma!? Nope. What President Donald (...) Trump* has is braggadocio and slime. JFK had charisma, Obama has charisma. President Donald (...) Trump's* base supporters are deluded and equate lots of money as the measure of success.

* Impeached
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 12:38 PM
I've always been in favor of repealing the 22nd amendment. As soon as any president is elected to a second term, he's a lame duck. But I do think the people should decide whether or not they want a president for a third time around. Those who might have ran for a third term and been successful include Eisenhower, but his health problems, heart attacks would have prevented him from doing so. Reagan also had his health problems, Alzheimer. Neither IKE nor Ronnie would have sought a third term.

Bill Clinton, he was healthy, fit, but I think too many scandals and womanizing would have brought him defeat. Obama if he wanted it, a third term was his. So just 4 presidents since the 22nd was passed would have qualified to run for a third term, 2 wouldn't have for health reasons, although both IKE and Reagan would have been granted a third term by the people if they ran. I don't know or have any idea of Bill Clinton or Obama would have sought a third term. Nonetheless, I'm still in favor of repealing it.
Few would have voted for Reagan if they actually knew just how debilitated he was after being shot. Nancy and Cheney were running things for a few years there, and Nancy preferred psychics as advisors. Maybe we need objective physical and mental health exams with published results before primaries for all elected offices. That situation is not all that rare. Amendment 25 was supposed to fix that, but cabinet officers and congress are loath to remove their figurehead, even if he is disabled.

As for Clinton's one transgression, Trump would brag about it if he could find anybody who would have sex with him.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 09:30 PM
Quote
I don't plan on retiring until I'm 70.
I had no plans to retire either. Yet here I sit in this wheelchair...
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 09:35 PM
I think one of the main reasons Gore lost to Bush was the Clinton scandals. Not just Monica, but a bunch more. At least for those who were non-affiliated with either party. They were tired of them.

that's my opinion as no exit polling asked the question that I can find about the effects of the Clinton scandals on how they voted. So I have no numbers to back up my opinion.

We might compare favorable/unfavorable ratings, on election day 2000 Bush had a 58% favorable, 38% unfavorable, Gore 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable. I can't find Bill Clinton's favorable/unfavorable's for election day 2000, but I do have his job approval numbers for that date, 57% approve, 38% disapprove.

So these numbers say it would have been a tossup between Bush vs. Bill Clinton for a third term had he been able to run.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 10:39 PM
Quote
Trump? Charisma!? Nope.

Sorry, just because you and I don't fall for it doesn't mean that millions upon millions aren't befuddled by his charisma. They loved him on the Celebrity Apprentice, they admire his wealth and his brash demeanor.

Charisma won him the election in 2016 because even though she was America's most admired woman for 17 years straight Hillary has no charisma.

It wasn't her emails...it was her failure to connect with enough voters on the visceral level that makes them WANT to follow you wherever you go.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/21/20 11:52 PM
I think we have to disagree about Trump having charisma. The definition of Charisma is exercising a compelling charm which inspires devotion in others.

Trump was in no way charming. Obnoxious, uncouth, egotistic among other adjectives come to mind.

Then I found this: a special power that some people have naturally that makes them able to influence other people and attract their attention and admiration:

Perhaps with so many devoted to him, number two may apply. There were other definitions with magnetic personality, etc. I suppose charisma like so many other things is seen in the eye of the beholder. Now JFK, Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama I would classify as charismatic, they meet my definition of being charismatic, but not Trump.

As for Hillary, you may have hit it on the head. She had no charisma, no personality trait that made people want to follow her to the moon and back. Trump's supporters were willing to go to the four corners of the earth for him. The three words I heard most often in how Hillary came across during her campaign were aloof, elitist and fake.

Now there could have been something else also, perhaps people like her in a subordinate roll. As first lady, as senator from New York, as secretary of state. But not as the head honcho, the boss. Bill put her in charge of health care, then viola, 1994 happened and Democrats lost control of the house for the first time in 40 years. As secretary of state, she was doing President Obama's foreign policy directives and wants. I'm not going to say anything about her being a senator, she's from New York, me, from Georgia. New Yorkers seemed to like her.

By this I mean as a military man for example, I knew many Lieutenants that were very good getting instructions/orders from the CO and following through with those orders/instructions. The old I want this done and the LT's would make sure it was done. But I sure wouldn't want them to be in charge of the company where they were deciding what needed to be done and what not was to be done. Having them being the ones who decided what orders to issue and what ones not to, what tactics to use and what tactics not to use, ditto for strategy.

They were great number two's, but I'd never want them in the number one position.



Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/22/20 06:47 PM
Trump is a professional con man. He has been doing it for years and screwing virtually everybody he comes into contact with. He also gathered others, of his ilk, to help him and then dumped them. He did give some a free pass if they had dirt on him. Con men tend to be VERY good with people when they want to be and I suspect Trump of being the same. His problem now is that he is supposed to be running a country and not a person to person con. That is, I think, why he keeps screwing it up. He is, basically, out of his depth but, still, he is getting away with it.

I don't expect the truth of the Trump presidency until he is no longer president/dictator and that is going to be something like three months from now, or not. If he goes THEN we will get the truth. The interesting thing will be to watch the supporters, especially those with something to lose (money, stature, job). Well, not only intersting but pretty entertaining as well.

I just wish the Dems would display a little more vigor in Trump attacks. When, for instance, have we heard how many house legislative efforts have been stopped by Trump and Do-nothing Mitch? There isn't a single Trumpy Senator up for election that should win! Not a single one! They are wide open to ongoing, unending abuse. Hopefully that is happening although the Dems have always felt themselves to actually be above the fray and have always demonstrated their ability to screw it up. This time, however, they have fallen away Republicans, like the Lincoln project to help them.
A lot of the criticisms I hear about Hillary are traits that would be admired in a man. So I think most anti-Hillary animus comes down to ideas about traditional roles for women. And a lot of the people suffering from that tunnel vision are women themselves. I was a bit disappointed that so many women would vote for a self-admitted sex offender instead of a woman who has taught Sunday school. I thought women were a bit more woke.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/22/20 11:34 PM
The breakdown between men and women followed the party ID real close.
All Republicans 88% Trump 8% Hillary
All Democrats 89% Hillary 8% Trump
Republican Men 89% Trump 7% Hillary
Republican Women 88% Trump 9% Hillary
Democratic Men 87% Hillary, 9% Trump
Democratic Women 91% Hillary, 7% Trump

So rather men or women, they followed their party within a single point one way or the other with the exception of Democratic Women which voted 2 points above all Democrats.

For fun, let me throw in independents.
All Independents Trump 46%, Hillary 42% Third Party 12%
Independent men Trump 50%, Hillary 38%, Third Party 12%
Independent Women Trump 42%, Hillary 47%, Third Party 11%

Trump won independent men by 12, lost independent women by 5. But what we see is the dislike both major party candidates by independent men who voted third party 12% and independent women voting third party 11% are almost the same percentage.

Men and women followed their party line or ID, party loyalty more important than the sex of the candidates. This also shows the dislike of both major party candidate was even among independent men and women.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

Trump lucked out winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by a few thousand votes each. I don't think him winning those three states can be credited to the gender issue as party loyalty applied in each state.

What probably did let Trump win those three states was the union household vote. Hillary did 7-10 points worse than Obama did with union households in those three states. Pennsylvania, Obama received 60% of the union household vote, Hillary 50%, in Michigan, Obama received 61% of the union household vote, Hillary 53%, in Wisconsin Obama 60% to Hillary's 53%. Nationally, it was Obama 58%, Hillary 51%. The Democrats were losing support of the working man.

For the record, union households made up 21% of the vote in Wisconsin, 28% in Michigan and 26% in Pennsylvania.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 04:03 AM
I think political ideology and party loyalty triumphs gender. I don't think most democrats would vote for a conservative woman if the GOP nominated one or vice versa. History shows most party members vote for candidates of their party regardless of gender and I will add race to that.

I'd like to give you the breakdown of independents men vs women on the favorable/unfavorable view of both candidates, but the polls never broke them down by party and gender. The polls showed nationally, male and female with out party affiliation. But under party affiliation, it wasn't broken down into male and female, they were all lumped together.

Nationally is the best I can do.
males Hillary Clinton 38% favorable/61% unfavorable
Trump 41% favorable/57% unfavorable
Females Hillary Clinton 47% favorable/52% unfavorable
Trump 36% favorable/64% unfavorable

Final election results
males Trump 52-41 over Clinton
females Clinton 54-41 over Trump

With the numbers in the post above, party affiliation was decisive. Democratic men and women voted for Hillary. Republican men and women voted for Trump. Regardless of gender, party affiliation and I'll add ideology wins out.

Averaging out the elections from 2000-16 men averaged 52% republican/42% Democratic. Females averaged 54% Democratic/45% Republican. So the male vote in 2016 matched the 5 election average almost to a tee. The female average voting for Hillary was exact, but the female vote for Trump was 4 points below the 5 election average. They probably voted third party.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 12:58 PM
Charisma. I have always associated that word with a positive meaning of attractiveness, though in thinking a bit more deeply about charismatic people I don’t necessarily equate it universally with doing good things.

Originally Posted by perotista
Then I found this: a special power that some people have naturally that makes them able to influence other people and attract their attention and admiration.
Clearly, Trump has this power over a fairly sizable number of people, but for the life of me I can’t understand why. To me he is such an obvious shallow con man, ugly, unprincipled, lying, and evil, that I was repulsed the first time I saw him appear back in the 1980s. To say that Trump is charismatic seems like a perversion of the meaning of the word, but how else to explain the power he has over so many people?

I have a theory that understanding comes from an alchemical reaction between knowledge and experience - we can learn things by reading or being told about them (knowledge), but it takes the addition of experiencing those things to create and understanding of them. I do not understand Trump followers because I can’t find even a whiff of inclination in myself to believe his lying and gaslighting. That leaves me with trying to explain his power intellectually, which is not very satisfying or useful in arguing with his followers.

It might be that focusing on Trump is looking through the lens backwards. The more substantive issue might be the mental disorder that the folks who worship him are suffering from.

The obstacle remains that I don’t have any relevant experience to draw upon to understand that problem, either.

My old signature line was, “You can’t solve a problem until you understand what the problem is.” Frankly, I don’t understand Trump followers. I am pretty sure that the problem isn’t with me, though (but how do we ever know for sure?)
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 01:29 PM
I like you, always associated charisma with good. But there were a lot of bad folks who were charismatic, Hitler and Mussolini come to mind. Then there was Jim Jones who's charisma lead over 900 people to take their own lives including the lives of their children. But I think these people are looking for something in these folks that the rest of us aren't.

What I noticed about Trump and the GOP before the primaries began, a lot of Republicans were attracted to him because he was a fighter. A lot of Republicans were mad at their own members of congress. Especially those in the House. Some for unknown reason which makes no sense to me, after the GOP retook the house in 2010 they expected the House to govern this nation and to stop Obama cold. When the House couldn't accomplish what they wanted, a lot of Republicans turned on them. Trump became very attractive to them, perhaps only because he came across as a fighter, someone who would take no bull, a feud creator who went after anyone and everyone who ever spoke bad about him.

One has to remember that until Trump clinched the nomination, he was winning primary after primary with but 30-35% of the Republican vote. He was winning because of the extra large field of candidates and when it became clear Trump might win the nomination, the narrowed field couldn't decide on one of them to oppose Trump.

Being a fighter was enough, Trump doesn't have a political ideology and he isn't a loyal party man. He expects loyalty from others but gives none in return. Trump is for Trump and nothing else.

To be honest, when it became clear that Trump was going to be the Republican nominee. This became clear to me right after the New Hampshire primary when Christie destroyed Rubio and none of the debaters when after the then leader, Trump. I thought, "Oh boy, the Democrats will waltz into the White House."

Then the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, someone as disliked by American's as a whole, all America as Trump was. I remember thinking, that was a huge mistake, although I always thought she'd win. I resigned myself to four years of Hillary only because the Republicans had nominated Trump. The warning signs were there, a big one in February of 2016 when a poll revealed 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone other than Hillary. The dissatisfaction of a majority of Americans with Hillary was apparent and front and centered. Yet, totally ignored by the Democrats.

But the rest is history, a party loyalist or an avid supporter of any candidate can't ever understand how one could support someone else or the other party. That's the nature of the game.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 02:27 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Trump became very attractive to them, perhaps only because he came across as a fighter, someone who would take no bull, a feud creator who went after anyone and everyone who ever spoke bad about him.
I don't think it was because he is a 'fighter', I think it is because he is an unapologetic bigot and is unafraid to cheat to win. Trump followers desperately want to feel like they are "winning".

Originally Posted by perotista
...a party loyalist or an avid supporter of any candidate can't ever understand how one could support someone else or the other party. That's the nature of the game.
I don't think this is a matter of partisanship for the earnest Trump followers - it does seem to be a matter of strategy for many right-wing politicians, though, who are trying to do the math to stay in office.

It's not a partisan matter for me, as I have always found the man to be disgusting, even when he played at being a Democrat. This is the crux of it: I don't understand the folks who don't find him to be disgusting. I have an acquaintance (bordering on a friend) who said to me out of the blue, "Trump just makes me so goddamned proud!" (I didn't press the issue... experience has shown that it would go nowhere good)
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 03:17 PM
Quote
...he is an unapologetic bigot and is unafraid to cheat to win. Trump followers desperately want to feel like they are "winning".
Losers in life are like that. coffee
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 03:30 PM
You can call it what you want, but there was a lot of anger at the Republican house members. They gave the impression of rolling over dead when it came to Obama. Hence the anger lead to the need for a fighter.

I don't buy the bigot and racist thing either. Whites have voted Republican 54% in 2000, 58% in 2004, 55% in 2008, 59% in 2012 and 57% in 2016. Trump's 57% was right on average with the last 5 elections. It seems more a case of party ID and ideology. It's no secret that the Democrats have a problem attracting white voters while the Republicans have a problem with minorities.

I suppose you can call those who don't vote for your candidates racists and bigots. That may have something to do with it. But Whites had no problem voting for Tim Scott in South Carolina, also remember Herman Cain lead the GOP field back in 2012 for a couple of weeks. The Republicans are running John James, another black man in the Michigan senate race. I do think it's more a case of party loyalty and ideology than racist or bigotry. But it has almost always been that way. Republicans haven't won the black vote since 1928 when only blacks in the north and west voted. Democrats haven't won the white vote since 1964. Carter in 1976 came the closes of any democrat of winning the white vote since 1964 when he lost the white vote for Ford 48-52.

Look at this way, Gore, a white man received 42% of the white vote, Kerry, another white man received 41% of the white vote. Obama a black man in 2008 received 43% of the white vote. More than either of the first two white, male Democratic candidates. Obama's 43% was the highest percentage of the white vote since Bill Clinton's 44% back in 1996. Although Obama fell to 39% in 2012 among white voters. Clinton received 37% of the white vote. But in 2016 6% of whites voted third party.

Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 03:36 PM
Bigot: a person who is obstinately or intolerantly devoted to his or her own opinions and prejudices

Bigotry is not confined to racism. I see it as a term representing the inability to consider things while suspending pre-judgments, and a refusal to acknowledge facts. Not all opinions are based on facts. Obstinate refusal to consider facts is bigotry.

As in everything, there are degrees...
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 03:59 PM
I have noticed that gullibility is a major factor with Trump followers, which plays into their bigotry in a big way.

As an example of how Trump (and his nefarious cabal of con men and crooks) use the gullibility of his followers is in the parable of Bannon, Kolfage, and the Great Wall Con.

Believing the constant stream of Trump lies and gaslighting is another yooge example.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 04:31 PM
If that's the case, we're all bigots in a way. I know I have a few opinions I'm not going to change, period.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 04:43 PM
Here is one of the better videos dealing with Trump true believers. Its funny but, if you think about it, I am not sure just how funny it really is. This is, I think, descriptive of approximately 30% of the American voting public!

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 06:38 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Whites have voted Republican 54% in 2000, 58% in 2004, 55% in 2008, 59% in 2012 and 57% in 2016. Trump's 57% was right on average with the last 5 elections.
That would be consistent with the percentage of bigoted and racist white nationalists in America. smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 06:47 PM
And that, JG. is a perfect example of the bigotry embedded in the Republican party.

I'm a racist. I was born in the apartheid south and my deeply ingrained racism is impossible to dislodge from my brain completely.

In the world where I grew up the only thing lower than a black man was a New York Yankee.

Enter: Donald Trump.



Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 06:57 PM
Quote
This is the crux of it: I don't understand the folks who don't find him to be disgusting.

Word.

This morning I keep thinking of the movie The Music Man, as an example of populism's mass delusion. Very much like Trump's base. But I guess religious leaders have always done this:

"Believe in this fantasy divine message that I tell you, and all of your problems will be solved. Don't believe anybody else, because they are all liars."

And even: "They are all in a massive conspiracy to do unspeakable evil and all worship Satan. They should all be killed."

Sound familiar?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 08:32 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
Whites have voted Republican 54% in 2000, 58% in 2004, 55% in 2008, 59% in 2012 and 57% in 2016. Trump's 57% was right on average with the last 5 elections.
That would be consistent with the percentage of bigoted and racist white nationalists in America. smile

So around 57% of all white people are bigoted and racist nationalist if I got your meaning right. Perhaps those who are conservatives are also bigoted, racist, nationalist because they aren't liberal or have a differing political philosophy.

Then what about the average of 9% of blacks, of the 33% of Hispanics and the 40% of Asians who also voted Republican on average over the last 5 election cycles? Are they also bigoted, racist, nationalists?

Or could it be that people have differing views on politics, different ideologies and philosophies? What about self interest voting, voting for folks who you think will help you in the issues that are most important to you?

I'm more or less a swing voter, voting for candidates from both parties and I'm white. Since I have voted for 3 Republican presidents out of the last 5, does that make me a bigoted, racist nationalist?

Perhaps I must be, I voted for Republicans, I'm white and I'm from Georgia. No doubt about it.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 09:48 PM
There are a lot of reasons to vote Republican.

White supremacy is one of them. Christian evangelism is another.

Trump admitted early on that he was a nationalist, and has proven many times over that he is a racist and a bigot.

His many followers and voters are authoritarians by nature, touting their freedoms while taking them from others. Racists, nationalists, hyper Christians, neo Nazis, and the republican roach herders who keep them in line and get them out of the woodwork on election day.

Also if you're rich they'll keep your taxes lower by exploiting workers.

And if your primary concern is the military, they will never cut a cent from its bloated and ridiculous budget.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/23/20 09:50 PM
Quote
The Music Man
We've got trouble, folks, right here in River City!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 12:14 AM
Why wouldn't it be? I've been military almost all my life. 21 years active duty, another 26 as a department of the army civilian. It's not the military that's responsible for its bloated budget as you put it. Try congress. They use the military as a civilian jobs creator and maintainer. You could easily cut 100 billion from the military budget if congress stopped that. It wouldn't hurt national defense or security one bit. But congress has always made the military buy stuff that it didn't need nor want, even when the JCS told congress so.

But those congress critters are more worried about maintaining and creating civilian jobs back home in their district and state than about military preparedness or even national security in general. This way those congress critters can go back home to their district and state and tell their constituents they provided so many jobs and kept so many jobs. Please vote for me.

I seen all of this first hand. Stuff sitting in warehouses for 10 or more years, all brand new before being auctioned off by DRMO at a fraction of the original cost. I suppose the bottom line is if congress didn't make the military buy all this stuff that it didn't need nor want, civilian jobs would be lost back in those congress critters districts and states. Better to bring home the pork than cut the military budgets by not making the defense department buy things that aren't going to be used and lose civilian jobs back home. Then the congress critters would be blamed and perhaps not reelected. This goes for both parties.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 12:17 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
If that's the case, we're all bigots in a way.
I agree... but there is the matter of de-gree. And willingness/ability to consider and discuss things that are uncomfortable. Like we are doing.

Scale and relativity are all important in a world where nothing is black and white.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 03:35 AM
Quote
Why wouldn't it be? I've been military almost all my life.
I was in the construction industry all my life. I don't give a fig about the industry now that I'm retired.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 04:08 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
...Perhaps those who are conservatives are also bigoted, racist, nationalist because they aren't liberal or have a differing political philosophy.
Well...duh. Those slave-owning, Jim Crow-loving Southern racist and bigoted Dixiecrats were certainly no progressives. Hmm

Yes, it's certainly differing political philosophies.

Quote
Liberals: Humans should not be owned. smile
Quote
Conservatives: One of my slaves just ran-away. When I find him, I'm gonna lynch him. mad

Hmm
Quote
lynch him

You are totally wrong about that. Lynching is what bigots did after slavery ended, when they no longer could own slaves. What they used to do was to hunt down their "missing property", punish it in some non-crippling way, and put it back to work. It was pretty much about money, and slaves were worth a LOT of money. It would be insane to kill one. When you own their life-long labor and their offspring, it would be a huge waste of money.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 09:51 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Why wouldn't it be? I've been military almost all my life.
I was in the construction industry all my life. I don't give a fig about the industry now that I'm retired.

Doing twenty or thirty years is not based on choice. To do the time it is from love. A love of what you do, for the way of life, for the country. Even now, I retired 30 years ago, when ever I enter a base, I feel more relaxed, calmer, like I am home.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 11:54 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
lynch him

You are totally wrong about that. Lynching is what bigots did after slavery ended, when they no longer could own slaves. What they used to do was to hunt down their "missing property", punish it in some non-crippling way, and put it back to work. It was pretty much about money, and slaves were worth a LOT of money. It would be insane to kill one. When you own their life-long labor and their offspring, it would be a huge waste of money.
Makes sense. Why damage your own property? Thanks for the education on that PIA. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 12:03 PM
There's still that comradeship. I suppose one could say the military, active, retired whatever, it's still like one big huge family. We do care about family. I'll admit, even today most of my friends are retired military or have worked for the military as a civilian.

Even where I live is mostly military related. Me, retired Army, my neighbor to the right, retired air force. My daughter lives across the road, dependent of the military. Another retired army lives next to her and next to them a civilian who retired from working for the army after 40 years. The only civilians in my area are a Cambodian couple who live to the right of me.

We tend to congregate together, like I say, as family.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 01:14 PM
Judging from my experience with event planning (not extensive, by any stretch), it appears Trump's "convention" is going to be a real train wreck. Could be a big reason Propaganda Barbie is choosing this time to skedaddle.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/24/20 03:51 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Judging from my experience with event planning (not extensive, by any stretch), it appears Trump's "convention" is going to be a real train wreck. Could be a big reason Propaganda Barbie is choosing this time to skedaddle.
Kellyanne is rightwing - it's all about self-preservation. Those people have a knack for putting themselves first. Hmm

Prior to becoming Ted Cruz's failed campaign manager in 2015, and then going over to Donald Trump's campaign, Kellyanne was a pollster. Kellyanne can see what time it is. She sees Trump has no path to re-election and she's trying to save her marketability before Trump sinks the SS Trumptanic.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/20 02:35 AM
kellyanne's daughter is suing her parents for emancipation.

Sh*t's gotten real at the Conway household.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/20 02:47 AM
Quote
Doing twenty or thirty years is not based on choice. To do the time it is from love. A love of what you do, for the way of life, for the country. Even now, I retired 30 years ago, when ever I enter a base, I feel more relaxed, calmer, like I am home.
Yeah, I loved my job too. But I still don't give a fig about the industry. I guess killing people is far more awesome than building things, to leave you with such amazing feels for an industry designed to deliver the most death in the least amount of time. The excitement, the camaraderie, the machines of death all around you! What's not to love!
I admire the military service's "big family" sense of purpose, unity, comradery, and such. More than any other institution they really do support one another. It's socialism as it should be. You dedicate your working life to them, and they supply everything you need from birth (for dependents) to death including cremation or burial.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/20 02:24 PM
Upon awakening this morning I had the sudden realization of the stunning truths offered by the speakers at the RNC's first day of convention.

I am a very bad person.

I am evil and seek to destroy America.

I am a violent and elitist stripper of basic God given rights from the ordinary and beautiful people of this country.

I am the scourge of the ages!

To atone, the least I can do is to vote for Donald Trump, our Savior. After that, I shall vote for Donald Trump Jr., at least until he does away with the foolish practice of voting.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/20 04:16 PM
I hope the bombing of Democrat controlled areas can begin soon!

Only that can MAGA!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/20 06:02 PM
Quote
even today most of my friends are retired military or have worked for the military as a civilian.
Even today most of my friends are former construction workers or have worked indirectly in support of it.

Many people live in the houses we built for them.

Maybe you live in a house that construction workers built? Or drive on roads that construction workers built. Or get free medical care in VA hospitals that construction workers with no insurance built.

The military rejected me. I wasn't allowed in their club. Not welcome in that family.

But we built houses for you anyway. No need to thank me for my service. All the special benefits I get for doing it more than make up for the 40 years of my life I put into it.

Nope, I don't care much about your industry or mine. It's all exploitation of labor to make the already rich richer.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/25/20 06:06 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
[quote]I guess killing people is far more awesome than building things, to leave you with such amazing feels for an industry designed to deliver the most death in the least amount of time. The excitement, the camaraderie, the machines of death all around you! What's not to love!

Somebody has to do it. To protect the good citizens of this country and their opinions, regardless of how offensive or misbegotten those opinions maybe. Besides, more people have died in the cause of religion and politics than have died in all the wars that have ever been. Seems like civilians are some blood thirsty folks.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/26/20 12:36 AM
No argument there.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/26/20 03:27 AM
I really wouldn't define us military types as blood thirsty. But I had a good career. I'd say most of us don't want war, hate it. But if it comes or we're sent, we're prepared, ready, trained and will do what is necessary.

I do agree, this, "Thank You for your service," has been way over used to where it has gotten irksome. I really don't know anyone who was in the military that looked at it as being patriotic or as defending god, mother, apple pie and Chevrolet. It was more of protecting and defending your buddies.

That may be different with the all volunteer army of today. I do know patriotism drove a lot into the military after 9-11 or was it the urge for payback.

Anyway, I'm happy, proud of what I accomplished on both active duty and as a Department of the Army Civilian. I wouldn't change a thing in what I did or accomplished.

I think if one can say that regardless of what they do in life, they had a very good life.

But on the other side of the coin, there were times that I wondered if we all weren't just pawns on the global chess board being moved around for whatever reason. But I never worried about things I had no control over or couldn't do anything about.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/26/20 07:05 PM
I have always thought that stopping the draft is responsible for killing a lot of folks, volunteer or not. I continue to believe that they should bring it back. I remember when they did it. The military got a pay raise and the gov has been able to keep the war in Afghanistan going for almost 20 years so that them living off war can get a bit richer. With the draft that would have stopped a LONG time ago. Oh, I have, exactly, the same thought on "thank you for your service". I also get a bit upset when somebody says something along the lines of "well, nobody forced them to go into the military", especially when talking about folks dying. I have a grandson who left two kids and a wife and they treated him like sh*t. He got blowed up in Iraq and had a hole in his hand. They had him back on the line in 2 days!

I know - sh*t happens............
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/26/20 07:43 PM
I'd say being drafted back in 1966 was the best thing that happened to me. I'm the only one I know of in my immediate family that made the military a career. Although my Grandpa served in France during WWI and my dad in the Pacific during WWII. Both got out at the end of those wars. Dad lost two brothers in WWII and my Grandpa one during WWI.

I served in both Laos and Vietnam, my only son skipped the military. But one of my grandsons was with the 1st ID in Afghanistan. He has since got out of the military. He caught some shrapnel in the cheek while over there and now is taking medicine for PTSD. They didn't know what that was when I was in. But he's coming along fine. Medically discharged.

As for the draft, I don't know. Especially considering our active duty military now make up less than 1% of our population. I don't know where you'd put them all. The army has 472,000, the navy 325,000 and the Air Force 322,000. That's it. About 1.2 million men and women protecting a country of 320 million.

Certainly there's no need for a draft. Oh, I forgot the Marine Corps, another 186,000. So the total is 1.3 million. still that is less than a half of one percent of our total population.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/26/20 07:57 PM
The military didn't create itself, ya know?

Just like construction work, it's a job. But with great benefits.

I think there are two choices when you graduate from high school, go to college or join the service. Either of those things will tell future employers that you have to gumption to take on assignments and complete them, to stick with something, to work well with others. Essentially, that you can be trusted to some extent.

My draft card said 4F so that was never an option. Vietnam was raging and I already had some friends come home in boxes so it wasn't all that attractive anyway.

I was way too cool to go to school so I willingly gave up the other one. Probably the biggest mistake of my life but I learned a trade, started a business, and had a wonderful life. Up until 2008 when the housing market crashed.
Quote
Probably the biggest mistake of my life
I wouldn't say that, although I'm very supportive of higher education. But I think the biggest mistake of a lot of lives these days is to go into massive debt to go to an expensive college and then end up in a job that you could have got right out of high school. Or got a jump-start on by going through a trade school or apprenticeship program.

You don't need an English Degree to be an electrician.
I wonder if Trump's mendacity is going to hurt him with previous Trump voters this time. A lot of the more rational say they don't care if he lies, because it's just his style. But now they know all the crap he's saying about the Democrats are lies as well. Is The Boy Who Cried Wolf going to pay for his lies?

Hurricane Laura now at 150 MPH Category 4. Now we get to see Trump's FEMA response. Time to go throw more paper towel rolls?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/27/20 12:41 AM
Quote
You don't need an English Degree to be an electrician.

No, but if you want to supervise 120 electricians, and earn 6 figures that English degree is all you need to qualify for a job in management.

Tradesmen need technical training and for those who would start their own businesses an AA in business administration would go a long way towards their success.
I agree completely. Management usually requires different training than actually doing the job of the managed workers. That's why my niece with the expensive edumacation went right from college into a management trainee program.

I got a BS in biology and ended up writing software. Did I need the Biology degree? Not really, but then I always declined offers to join management. And there was a lot of synergy between the college work and what I was doing in medical research at the time.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/27/20 05:21 AM
I was headed for an art degree but I was really only interested in drugs, booze, and sex. There was construction or the citrus industry. Construction paid better. Beaches bitches and booze. A lot of LSD a lot of Boone's Farm Apple Wine and cheap Canadian whiskey. I chased women until I was tired of running from them and married a little cutie who is my best friend to this day, though we haven't been married for many many years.

I can't imagine anyone having more fun in their lifetime than I did.

Every day at work was an adventure and every night was a party. Weekends were on the lakes, out in the gulf, or over on the east coast

I took an early disability and retired at 55. I'm now 67.

Life is wonderful and I'm living the socialist dream. I get a monthly stipend that pays(most of) my bills, a roof over my head, and cheap healthcare. If I die tonight in my sleep it will be as a happy man with no regrets.

But I want to live a long time so I can see how this bizarre political situation works out over the next decade or two.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/27/20 06:39 PM
Wow, I am not sure about what to say! My main degree was in Philosophy. You know, something really useful! I did think about English but got in to a hassle with the professor and made a deal - I would pass if I would stop going to class. That one got so silly I just had to run my mouth. History was good, and also interesting but not precisely what I would call a money maker. I was able to do it all with the GI bill and summer savings.

My best shot was to go home and be friends with dad. That one worked out better than I had thought possible.
Making friends with Dad was not an option for me, him being imprisoned and all. I had to do it all on my own. Still, it was fun! Had some great encounters with the opposite sex, some nice drug experiences, and a decent career doing the STEM stuff I loved. Learned to snow ski despite living where it never snows. Hiked the Sierras. Took girls out to screw under the stars in the desert. Learned to scuba dive almost for free (college PE class). Sailed little boats for fun. Went to the Aleutian Islands on a Scripps research trip. Wrote a book that got published.

Now I'm just raising puppies and vegetables.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/28/20 07:14 PM
You seem to have been a REALLY romantic devil! <G>
Pretty much always had some sort of interactions with the fair sex. Not much time unattached at all. Back when I was driving up to Mammoth for the snow skiing, I would usually go there without a reservation and hook up with somebody just by yelling "SINGLE" at the first few ski lifts. You do kind of put yourself out there as available. If any lady was interested, she would yell "SINGLE" back and you pretty much had somebody to ski with all day and a place to sleep that night.

Of course, that was back when AIDS was unknown. I've been with my wife since about 1980!
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 08/29/20 05:16 PM
Newlyweds! (We have been together since 1960 <G>)

I kept thinking about my claim. I think it was closer to 1962 or 1963. Our oldest will be 60 next year. Apologies..........
Quote
The second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives triggered outrage Sunday after tweeting a doctored video that manipulated the words of progressive activist Ady Barkan.

Steve Scalise Releases Doctored Video

House leadership is calling for his censure and resignation after he released a video that cut and pasted some audio to make it look like Joe Biden supported defunding police. What made it much worse, is the audio pasted in was from an interviewer with ALS that has to use a computerized speech generator. So you can't see his lips moving.

I think Scalise has just killed his own career in politics
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/01/20 06:19 PM
I doubt a Trump-supporting Republican in a safe district could do anything, up to and including cannibalism, to ruin their career.
"Safe districts" are only safe because of low turnout. A lot of folks who never cared before have lost their jobs and been locked down. They just might want to vote this time. Especially if they get a ballot in the mail.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 12:59 AM
Quote
A lot of folks who never cared before have lost their jobs and been locked down. They just might want to vote this time. Especially if they get a ballot in the mail.
And at least 50% of those people will vote for Trump. He promises to protect them from the nightmare coming under a socialist Democratic dictatorship.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 01:35 AM
I said awhile back that if these protests continue, there could be a backlash. I sat on that as until now, I didn't see any. But that backlash may be just beginning.

"New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Will Kenosha backlash swing suburbanites to Trump? What the data says (so far)"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yaho...what-the-data-says-so-far-154424284.html

Keep in mind, the article states, "So Far." That is exactly correct in my book. Is this a trend that will continue or just a one time blip on the radar screen? It bares watching.

Biden has seen a 7 point lead on 14 Aug in Wisconsin drop to 4 points as of 1 Sep. Biden's 6 point lead in Michigan dropped from 6 down to 2 over the same time period. In Minnesota, Biden's 13 point lead is down to 5. These are the states where the protests have taken place and Michigan, next door.

Oregon hasn't been polled recently, so it's hard to tell what is happening there. Biden had a 20 point lead in July. One should expects ups and downs, all elections have them. Give this two weeks and we'll take a look at it again. By that time we should be able to tell if this is a new trend or if it is just the normal ups and downs of any election.

As near as I can tell going through all the state polls, just Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota seems to be effected by the protests. Now the suburb vote, that's but one poll. If it was nationally, one would expect a tightening of the race in the national numbers. So far that hasn't happened. The tightening seem to be in just 3 states. Biden had a 7.7 point lead nationally on 14 Aug and a 7.2 lead on 1 Sep. Considering the margin of error, that basically is no change.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
Quote
He promises to protect them from the nightmare coming under a socialist Democratic dictatorship.

But of course, all the violent scenes he's showing in ads are happening now under his administration. This is all his doing. Remember, according to Trump, Biden is just hiding in his basement.

Is Biden an evil mastermind, or is he paralyzed by dementia?

Running on "restoring law and order" only works for challengers, not for incumbants.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 11:59 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
He promises to protect them from the nightmare coming under a socialist Democratic dictatorship.

But of course, all the violent scenes he's showing in ads are happening now under his administration. This is all his doing. Remember, according to Trump, Biden is just hiding in his basement.

Is Biden an evil mastermind, or is he paralyzed by dementia?

Running on "restoring law and order" only works for challengers, not for incumbants.
All of those mini-strokes that Trump has suffered recently has caused him to forget that HE is the current POTUS - not ol' Joe.

coffee
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 12:02 PM
If the virus that is Trump kills America, will people argue that he shouldn’t be blamed for its death because there is a co-morbidity of the stupidity, bigotry, and gullibility of his supporters?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 12:29 PM
I think you're forgetting that these protests and the violence have occurred in Democratic run cities and states. That the problem within these cities are basically a local problem that can't be solved by the federal government.

The federal government doesn't run the Kenosha, the Minneapolis, the Portland police departments. The federal government doesn't hire people to become police in those cities and they don't tell the different police department how to function or fund them. The city and state do that.

Only the local government in these cities can solve their own unique problems with the police. Stopping the violence is first the Mayor's and the cities problem. If they can't then the Mayor can request assistance from the governor which has the tools to stop the violence. Then the city, the Mayors, city government can address reforms in their own police departments.

If the governor can't handle it, then he can request federal assistance. Which so far as I know hasn't happened.

I know, being an election year blaming Trump and or Biden is what politicians running for office do. It's what political parties do, they blame the other party. But in short, yes, I think being a law and order candidate as an incumbent in this unique case can work. At least in the states where the violence is occurring. The narrowing of Biden's lead shows this. Nationwide, that's another matter.

I don't think Trump has the finesse to play the law and order card effectively or properly. So it could backfire on him. He just isn't political savvy enough. He's like a bull in a China Shop.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 07:23 PM
I suspect that Oregon was probably going to reduce their Biden numbers and then came that 1000+ interstate car caravan of White Nationalists. That, I suspect, may have sent a different message that woke up some?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/03/20 09:30 PM
Until Oregon gets polled, there is not telling. But as Democratic as Oregon is, Biden has no worries there unless the Cascadia Fault moves and a mega Tsunami swamps Oregon and Washington.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 01:01 AM
Florida, on the other hand, is a swing state. I just saw an article which postulated that whomever wins the Hispanics in Florida will win the presidency. Cubans are Republicans and they make up a huge number of South Florida voters.

Puerto Ricans on the other hand...don't love Trump so much.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 01:31 AM
I totally agree on Florida. Here the latest there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Yep, Cuban-Americans have a very long history of voting Republicans vs. the Puerto Ricans which have been always Democratic. Strange how that works.

I wonder if the Cuban-Americans have a long memory still not forgiving JFK for not sending in the bombers as promised during the bay of pigs?

Asians also had a long history of voting Republican until 2000 when they became very Democratic.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 06:53 PM
Interesting that you should mention the Cascadia fault. I am sitting right on top of it and its already started little moves here and there. Its about 200 years late and the melting ice of the arctic had been stabilizing it but...........

its generally agreed that if it does go off we are talking about 9+ earthquakes. We are being told, right now, to make sure to have a 30 day supply of water and food because the entire area is going to be in trouble for at least that long. Now add in that Yellowstone too is starting to act up so add in a super volcano just to make things even more interesting.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 07:18 PM
Yes, if Yellowstone goes, that's the end of civilization as we know it. If Cascadia goes, at least you'll have the majority of America to lend assistance.

There's been many good documentaries on both. Then there's that Island in the Atlantic, the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma, which a landslide which seems inevitable could cause a 150 foot mega Tsunami hitting the east coast.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 07:25 PM
Kinda puts things into perspective. Of the whole bunch the melting of the Arctic may be the most interesting as its the only one which will happen because we have been abusing world for so long. They have had, this year, 100 degree weather this year a couple of times. With the melting of the Arctic ice Cascadia is just the tip of the iceberg, as they say.

I know of one town up there that has been carving holes in the ice, for years, to put their garbage in. Its gonna get REAL interesting!

Times, they are a-changing?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 07:45 PM
Is this yet another alarmist hoax from Democrats?

These are all signs of the latter days as predicted by the Bible.

It's gotta be one or the other because science is always changing.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 07:53 PM
Science really doesn't change all that much - its them damned results. How does it go - the more we know the less we really know?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 08:47 PM
We know an awful lot. Climate deniers will become fewer and fewer as cities are abandoned to the tides.

I don't think any of them actually deny that it exists anymore. Their last argument is "It's the hand of GOD..." If we build bigger churches and put god back into schools it will all be okay...can I get a AMEN brothers?

And we gotta kill those socialists!
Speaking of disasters, let's not forget about the end of the gulf stream because of ice melt. Then all of the North Atlantic gets much colder.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/04/20 08:58 PM
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/05/20 12:55 AM
Ah, the ocean's highways. Now that would be a bummer.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/05/20 05:03 PM
Perhaps all these protest is now having the opposite effect of what was originally intended.

"How US recovery, chaos in Kenosha and Portland is helping Trump to blunt Biden 'steamroller'"

from the article with the link below.

“What we were afraid of is moderates saying, ‘I hate Donald Trump, but I need to be safe. I have to hold my nose and vote for him,’” Rendell told the publication."

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...-yawning-lead-falls-apart-153149210.html

Ed Rendell uses the word monderates, but I know them by other words, independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated and yes, those who's political ideology is somewhere in-between the right, Republicans and the left, Democrats. More or less, folks like myself.

I think we need to remember the two major parties no longer have approximately 80% of the electorate identifying with them as they did back in the 40's and 50's with independents at 20% or below. Today both major parties make up 57% of the electorate, 31% Democrat, 26% Republican if Gallup and Pew Research are to be believed. Independents have grown to 41%.

For the life of me, I have never been able to figure out why both major parties are always concentrating on their base, ignoring independents. I.E. Moderates. Hopefully, Ed Rendell who is one of Biden's advisors, is telling old Joe, don't ignore moderates, independents. If he does, Trump might actually get back into this race. The old political adage for a Democrat should be strictly adhered to, "Campaign left during the primaries, move toward the center for the general election." My two cents anyway. And please Joe, don't ignore those in-betweener's."

And for those democrats among us who don't like Biden moving more toward the center. Remember, first one must win the election before he can govern. Don't let this be lost on you.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/05/20 05:49 PM
Actually Biden has been working hard for the independent votes and he has been having some problems from some because he is not far left enough. Luckily, however, the Dems seems to have toned them down some.

Between this, and Trump's mouth, I am starting to feel better about the Democratic chances. Its REALLY important to get rid of the Jackass! Then all we have to do is worry about the infighting of the Democrats. Hopefully they can control that too.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/05/20 06:45 PM
I hope toning down works. At least until after the election. Then let the in-fighting begin. Even when the Democratic Party was the big tent party, there were quite a lot of in-fighting. But they always were able to come together at election time.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/20 06:36 PM
I still remember the battles fought when Obama was trying to get the ACA through the Democratic House and Senate. They fought tooth and nail. I followed it but, for the life of me, I couldn't figure out, for the most part, what it was even all about!

Strangely enough the Republicans didn't really fight all that much and actually wrote about half the bill.

If the Dems have a blowout, this time, it will be interesting. I fully expect them to fight each other with a will.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/20 07:00 PM
Quote
he has been having some problems from some because he is not far left enough. Luckily, however, the Dems seems to have toned them down some.
No...the "Dems" have toned no one down. The truth is that Joe has indicated he's willing to go pretty far left if that's what people want. Even an avowed socialist, such as I can see that getting rid of Trump is more important at the moment than some sort of battle for the soul of the Democratic Party.

The nation is literally at the brink of a civil war. Joe won't spin the wheel to the left towards a distant ideological shore but he'll stop the rightward shift to some extent and perhaps quell the flames of fascism before they roar out of control.

We leftists must play the long game...Joe is a net gain over Trump. He's a single term placeholder and represents four years of calm reasoned leadership during which we will be able to plead our case again among voters. Harris will be his obvious successor but rest assured that we will field a leftist opponent against her.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/20 07:25 PM
I hope you're right my friend. All I'm looking forward to seeing is Biden providing sane leadership, a return to normalcy. I'm fine with little steps left, but no lurch. Harris is basically an unknown quantity to me.

The one I'll be pushing for 2024 is Tammy Duckworth. But perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves here. I like little steps at a time, doing nothing to take the people out of their comfort zone and them getting angry at Biden and company whereas 2022 turns out to be another 2010. That would bring an abrupt halt to any movement left except via EO's which in theory can be overturned, repealed, canceled, ended by the next president.

Patience is a virtue or so I'm told. I think the difference between you and me, our perception is that outside of the ACA I really didn't see any leftward movement from Obama and I haven't seen any rightward movement from Trump. Then again, there's a lot of issues that I'm plain not interested in that others hold a very high priority in.

But it sure will be nice for a return of sanity to our government. Right now, I'll settle for that and only that.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/06/20 09:43 PM
Quote
I haven't seen any rightward movement from Trump.

You haven't noticed the jackbooted thugs and the authoritarian fascism that's rising under his rule? The armed insurrectionists growing bolder by the day? The only good democrat is a dead democrat rhetoric?

I think he can be likened more to Mussolini than any previous president.

And no, there was no leftward movement under Obama. Oddly, Hillary would have nudged the ship of state farther that way than Obama ever did.
I think Obama was consumed by being too polite and statesman-like. As a Black man, he was certainly aware of all the animosity simply because of his skin color. So he tried to be inoffensive and above it all. Still had Republicans pull all sorts of terrible stuff. Should have just gone ahead and said "time is up" and sent Garland to the Supreme Court.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/07/20 02:54 AM
Obama might have been consumed with many things but moving the nation leftward from the Bush years was not among them.
He did write a lot of fairly progressive Executive Orders, which was all he could do after two years in. He should have been able to appoint Garland to the Supreme Court, which would have made it 5-4 Liberal right to today, but Mitch opposed that.

The last 10 years has been the Great Project by Republicans to pack the courts with Conservatives, but they only have 5-4 so far. If Ruth Bader Ginsberg can hold out until February, and Biden wins, their Great Project will be in tatters. They pissed off a large swath of voters for nothing. Lets see if Thomas can wait until February to die from Covid-19.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/07/20 05:23 PM
I never understood why McConnell didn't allow a vote on Garland. McConnell had a 54-46 majority and could have easily defeated Garland's nomination. That was PPP in my book. (Piss Poor Politics). Vote or not, Garland wasn't about to be confirmed.

Perhaps it was sort of payback for Schumer stating he wouldn't allow Bush to appoint another SCOTUS justice in his last year. Paybacks happened.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/schumer-in-2007-dont-confirm-any-bush-supreme-court-nominee

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/07/20 07:19 PM
It always kinda amazes me when folks go after Obama for not doing this or that. They forget. When he was elected Moscow Mitch announced, publicly and on TV, that they would fight ANY legislation that had his name on it - ANY! That is, exactly what they did. Obama only had 2 years before the Republicans took over congress and then he was forced to do everything by decree.

I think the main problem, with the Democratic party, is that they don't stick with it. The Republicans, on the other hand, never forget that Democrats must be stopped because they are evil. The simple fact is that Democrats have never been able to take power from the Republicans unless they have a financial disaster. The other simple fact is that once the Dems take over they never ever mention how and why they took over. Apparently to just don't want to offend anybody. In Obama's case that is one of the reasons the Republicans were able to take back control of congress after only 2 years. Obama spent the first two years trying, very hard, to get along with the Republicans. On the Republican side they trashed him every little chance they had. If the Dems take over this time I sincerely hope they have the good sense to remind the voting public, every chance they get, about Republicans under their dear leader the Jackass Trump.
Somebody finally noticed attacking mail-in voting could hurt Republicans bigtime:
We're Screwed

Quote
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he has warned President Donald Trump that his repeated attacks on voting by mail could backfire and hurt both his reelection efforts and Republicans in other races.

“I tried to show [Trump} ... You know who is most afraid of COVID? Seniors,” he said. “And if they’re not going to go vote, period, we’re screwed.”

According to a Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape poll last month, 48% of Biden supporters plan to vote by mail, versus 23% of Trump voters. If those Trump voters end up staying home, or walking away instead of waiting in long lines, all Republicans suffer.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/08/20 08:51 PM
Quote
It always kinda amazes me when folks go after Obama for not doing this or that.

Obama did nothing.

And Democrats paid the price. You blame Republicans for Obama's failure...I blame Obama. Republican's are supposed to oppose whatever he proposes. It's his job to fight for what he wants.

Nobody ever called Obama a scrapper.
I think you are blaming him for not acting like Trump, and just tearing up the system of checks and balances by ignoring congress. Obama did what Presidents are supposed to do when the voters decide they want to cripple him by electing opposing congressional majorities.

And ACA, CHIP, and Medicaid Expansion are certainly not "nothing". Presidents have been trying to do that since Eisenhower, but Obama got it done.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/08/20 10:03 PM
I know yall love him, but the losses democrats suffered under him speak for themselves.

Without Obama, there could never have been Trump.

But here we are...hoping to elect a 77 year old, washed-up moderate Democrat to a single term. And hoping somehow that's gonna fix things.

Thanks Obama.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/08/20 10:36 PM
Perhaps the hope is to fix things like a Sanders or a Warren would want. Perhaps it is just to get American back to normalcy, to sanity. I personally would have preferred a fresh young face instead of a 77 year old who's been around since Christ was a Corporal.

That wasn't to be. I'm perfectly happy voting for a washed-up moderate Democrat. There were some in that field I wouldn't have voted for. I'd have taken the third party option one more time.

But you can't please everyone. As for Obama, I don't blame him for Trump. I'd place the blame Hillary herself for being so lazy on the campaign scene, ceding the campaign trail to Trump big time and letting him out work her. She had the most inept campaign strategy this side of G.H.W. Bush's 1982 campaign when he gave the impression he didn't care if he won or lost.

One could blame the Democrats in nominating Hillary in the first place, but that was their decision and they have to live with it.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/08/20 11:23 PM
I blame the election of Trump mostly on the morons who voted for him.

Here is an example: Driving home I heard a piece on the radio interviewing El Paso residents on the upcoming election. One guy said he was voting for Trump.

"I wish he would keep his mouth shut a lot more, because of the stupid things he says. But at least you know what the man is thinking."

I was thinking, "So you don't like what he is saying, but at least you know what he is thinking, and that adds up to voting for him? Doesn't that mean you don't like what he is thinking?"

I didn't use the word "moron" frivolously...
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 12:39 AM
Originally Posted by logtroll
I didn't use the word "moron" frivolously...


Indeed not. It's hard to underestimate the stupidity of the left side of the bell curve. But it's unseemly to point that out.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 12:52 AM
You have to consider we had the two most disliked and most unwanted candidates for the presidency in our history. At least from the point Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of these things since 1952. Both probably would have lost and probably big to any other major party presidential candidate since 1952. Both were disliked that much.

Trump was one lucky SOB to have Hillary as his opponent. If she had given it even a half hearted college try, she would have won fairly easily. But she didn't. I realize it is very difficult if not impossible if you were a Hillary supporter to acknowledge all of this. But the fact is only 38% of all Americans had a positive view of her, favorable is the word used in the polls.

It is all Americans who decide presidential elections, not just Democrats. All that vote that is. I suppose the bottom line was 2016 was between two candidates that a minority of Americans actually wanted one or the other to win.

Perhaps this has something to do with the polarization and ultra high partisanship we have these days. Maybe we'll never see another election when a majority of Americans view both major party candidates in a favorable or positive light. But in 2012, both Obama and Romney were seen in a positive light by a majority of Americans. The only election prior to 2016 where one of the major party candidates wasn't seen in a positive light was in 1964 with Barry Goldwater who had a 43% favorable. But LBJ trounced him 61-39. Still, Goldwater had a higher percentage of Americans who viewed him favorably than Clinton, 38% and Trump at 36%.

Perhaps it's time we put None of the Above on the ballot. If none of the above wins, we have a new election between two new candidates. Make the two major parties come up with a candidate that the majority of Americans want as their president even when they try not to.



Quote
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state, announced at a news conference on Tuesday that investigations were underway in 100 of the state’s 159 counties after the discovery of 1,000 instances of double voting in the state’s June primary and August runoff elections.

“We will prosecute,” said Mr. Raffensperger, a Republican, noting that double voting in Georgia, considered a serious felony, carries a penalty of one to 10 years in prison and a fine of up to $100,000.

Double Voting in Georgia

The most interesting thing in this, is that inducing someone to double vote in Georgia is a violation of the same law. Trump has told his followers to do this several times, and 1000 violations of the law have occured. So Trump's potential penalty will be 10,000 years in prison and a $100,000,000 fine! And that's not a cushy federal prison, either, It's a Georgia state prison.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 03:51 AM
You really want him in jail don'cha...I'd like to see it too, but I think it's never gonna happen.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 02:02 PM
Here's something Greger won't like.

"Biden loses his Florida lead as Latino voters shift to Trump"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-loses-florida-lead-latino-191536760.html

Now here are all the latest Florida polls, according to RCP averages, Biden has a narrow 0.8 point lead. Interesting is we have the tie, Trump ahead in one poll by 3 and Biden ahead in the two other polls by 3 points each.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Taking the margin of error into consideration, all of this means is Biden is head by 3 or trailing by 2. Somewhere in-between those two figures. Anywhere between up by 3 and down by 2.

But Florida is always close and swings both ways. So this shouldn't surprise anyone.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 07:18 PM
I've always figured Trump will take Florida. They love him here, practically worship him as the second coming of Christ.

A Trump win in November, here and in other swing states and battleground states is almost inevitable.

Seen any Biden boat parades? Seen any Biden anything? Seen any Biden signs on lawns? Two months from the election have you seen a single Biden bumper sticker?

All we've seen is some polls that Biden is barely ahead in...mostly within the margin of error or a couple points above it.

Florida's Latinx vote is split between Cubans and everyone else. Mexicans don't care much for Trump as you can imagine. Nor do Puerto Ricans. Central and South Americans are split but it's hard to get a handle on that group.

There's a big economic divide...rich Hispanics of all nationalities trend Republican because of taxes.

Basically our Hispanic population is about as divided as the rest of the nation. Roughly 50/50.

It's going to be a matter of turnout and there's no excitement on the Democratic side. Biden might still win because there is, if nothing else, a burning resolve among liberals that Trump must go.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 07:39 PM


Trump campaigns in Florida and extends oil drilling ban off Gulf coast in gesture to voters as sunshine state polls shows him and Biden in 48-48 dead heat
Link

..and then there is the above. Hmm
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/09/20 11:22 PM
You know, I hadn't thought of that. Yard signs, I seen a couple on my way down to Griffin for Trump. None for Biden. So I guess you could say it's Trump 2, Biden 0 in Georgia. Bumper stickers, none period. Now you'll still see a car or two with their Obama bumper sticker still on it.

Now thinking back to 2016, I did see one Trump yard sign, none for Hillary. But no bumper stickers for either one. You'll still see a Ron Paul bumper sticker from 2012.

Now there's plenty of yard signs for local races, like sheriff, county commission, state representative etc. But hardly none nationally. Strange, I guess I noticed it, but didn't think anything of it.

Then there's that yard sign down by Dollar General which simply says, "ADULT 2020." I love that one. Of course, living in the country, I suppose you wouldn't see many yard signs or bumper stickers. Hmm, even when I go into town, I don't think I seen any either.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/10/20 12:46 AM
We had a Trump boat parade a month or more ago...hundreds of boats, none sunk. Even out here in the swamp there are Trump flags and banners. In town there are signs everywhere.

Democrats are pretty much scared to put a Biden sign out because they'll be attacked. Trump is basically worshiped as the bringer of truth and light. He alone can save your immortal soul from eternal damnation. He alone speaks truth while all others lie. He alone can Make America Great Again.

Democrats are Communists and the only good one is a dead one.
Posted By: Irked Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/10/20 12:51 AM
2020 Election Sign Survey scientifically based on one unreliable data collector:

Here in Loonyville (as they like to think us), lots of LARGE (and not so large) Trump signs in the exurbs. Maybe a slight edge to Biden in the suburbs. And Biden hands down in the urban cores.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/10/20 03:15 AM
That' pretty much what one would expect. Urban, Democratic, Rural, Republican, suburbs, a bit of both.

There really hasn't been many yard signs or bumper stickers for years around where I live.

Braves 29, Miami Marlins 9
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/10/20 04:21 AM


What have we learned about Fatass Trump in the past week? Hmm
  • We learned that Fatass had a series of mini-strokes.
  • We learned that Fatass is a broke ass.
  • We learned that Fatass thinks our military is dumb and stupid.
  • We learned that Fatass is a psychotic lying serial killer.


...and conservatives thought it was a good idea to have the guy run our country. Oh Trump ran our country alright...right into the ground. coffee

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/10/20 03:17 PM
After saying a bunch of dumb things and more childish actions than one can shake a stick at over the last several weeks, we now have this. I must wonder if Trump isn't trying to lose this election by doing and say very dumb things.

A Striking Reversal: Trump's Attacks on the Military and Defense Contractors

https://www.yahoo.com/news/striking-reversal-trumps-attacks-military-122037450.html

It's also interesting to note, Biden has climbed above the 50% mark in the latest polls. By comparison, Hillary never reached 46% in the polls although she finished at 48% as voters deserted Johnson and Stein on election day. On 10 Sep, Hillary was at 41.2% with Biden at 50.5% today.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

The most striking numbers for me was on 10 Sep 2016 we had 20% of the electorate either undecided or stating they'd vote third party. Today that is down to 7%. I think this is a very important number.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/10/20 08:24 PM
Quote
I must wonder if Trump isn't trying to lose this election by doing and say very dumb things.
While all these things might seem very dumb to us, his millions of devout believers think they are the wisest words and actions imaginable. They are genuinely amused by the fires out west as those are Democratically controlled areas and essentially the enemy. California, Oregon, and Washington are getting what they deserve.

The disgraced generals and military leaders are getting what they deserved as they have proven disloyal and seek only war. Trump is the only one who speaks truth and all others are lying about everything.

In a sane world Biden would be up in every poll by 10 or more. As it stands he will probably win but the election results will be called into question by His Majesty and the new Democratically controlled government will be seen by them as illegitimate. They will go once again into "taking their country back" from the coloreds and communists.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/11/20 07:59 PM
I fully expect Trump to explain all the fires on TV. His main point is that Neither California, Oregon or Washington sent battalions of prisoners into the woods, with push brooms and buckets, to clean the forest floors. I case you folks didn't know Mr. Trump is a genuine expert in how to deal with forest fires and rarely missing a chance to mention the importance of sweeping the forest floors.

As an aside I thought I would share this article:
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-co...3/the-netherlands-is-closing-its-prisons

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/12/20 11:03 PM


  • Trump has never expanded his base.
  • There is no Julian Assange and Wikileaks to do Putin's bidding this time.
  • There is no Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Evan McMillan this time to siphon off votes.
Trump is toast, he's one and done.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/20 02:02 PM
I would add that normally Johnson and McMillan took votes from Trump while Stein from Clinton. Johnson received 3.28%, Stein 1.07% and McMillan 0.54%. If normalcy and ideology is applied 3.83% from Trump, 1.07% from Clinton. Libertarians and Conservatives tend to vote Republican, Green Party, Democratic. Which would have wiped out Hillary's 2 point victory margin in the popular vote if they hadn't been on the ballot.

Then too CNN exit polls ask the question if there were no third party candidates, the election just between Trump and Clinton who would you have voted for, 19% answered Trump, 16% Clinton, 65% said they would not have voted. Just think about that. 65% of 9 million who voted third party is 5.85 million. This means those 5.85 million people went to the polls to specifically vote against both major party candidates by casting a vote for a third party candidate. That means almost 6 million people wouldn't have voted if there were only two names on the ballot. Trump and Clinton.

Which also makes my first paragraph irrelevant. which simply means Trump would have received 1.7 more votes, Clinton 1.4 a total difference of only 300,000 for Trump as the rest of the third party vote wouldn't have voted.

But third party candidates helped Hillary more than Trump in 2016.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/20 02:30 PM
Quote
At the moment, there are two different perspectives on the state of the presidential election. Some journalists regard the races as “stable,” pointing to polls as evidence, and some of the latest analysis also says a “stable race continues.”

Others say the race is "steady" and call former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump the “steadiest” on record.

This debate is of course semantics — both terms reflect the same reality. Biden currently has a lead in both the national polls and in key swing state polls. In fact, he’s had that lead all year, with his poll numbers spiking most recently in June, and he has maintained the lead since then.

...

The lack of movement in the polls is bad news for Trump and his chances of winning in November. Trump is behind in the polls, and if things stay the same, Trump will lose. The longer that the presidential race goes with polling numbers holding steady, the less time Trump has to erase his deficit.

- Slate.com
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/20 02:43 PM
Quote
Former New York mayor Mike Bloomberg plans to spend at least $100 million in Florida to help elect Democrat Joe Biden, a massive late-stage infusion of cash that could reshape the presidential contest in a costly toss-up state central to President Trump’s reelection hopes.

Bloomberg made the decision to focus his final election spending on Florida last week, after news reports that Trump had considered spending as much as $100 million of his own money in the final weeks of the campaign, Bloomberg’s advisers said. Presented with several options on how to make good on an earlier promise to help elect Biden, Bloomberg decided that a narrow focus on Florida was the best use of his money.

...

In response to the Florida commitment, Trump attacked Bloomberg on Sunday morning, mocking his performance in the Democratic primary debates earlier this year. “I thought Mini Mike was through with Democrat politics,” Trump wrote on Twitter.

In recent weeks, polls in Florida have narrowed, with the Cook Political Report recently shifting the state from “lean Democrat” to “toss up.”

- WaPo.com
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/20 07:29 PM

Steve Cortes said to Chris Wallace on today's Sunday Fox show that Fatass Trump was in a "fog of war." LOL

The only thing foggy is Fatass' mental acuity. Fox New viewers agree: The survey of likely 1,191 likely voters found that 51% believe that Biden “has the mental soundness to serve as president.” Only 47% of likely voters told Fox News that President Trump has the “mental soundness” to be commander-in-chief.

Fox News Poll 09/13/20


Fatass is one and done. smile
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/20 08:25 PM
Uh...those numbers are pretty much within the margin of error.

Not much of anybody believes that either man is mentally up to the job.

Still, that's pretty sad when Trump can't win a Fox News poll!
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/13/20 11:59 PM
He doesn't have to win the election to remain president...

And considering everything that has happened he shouldn't even be close an anybody's poll.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 01:00 AM
Normally, a 7 to 8 point lead isn't that big a lead this far out. But it can become so when there are very few undecided's. In mid October 2016 Hillary was up by 7 points, but there was still 15% undecided. Biden is up by 7.5 points as of today with only 7% undecided.

Hillary was at 46% and ended up at 48%. Trump at 39% ending up at 46%. So 7 out of that 15 went for Trump, Hillary got only 2 while the rest voted third party. The late deciders went to Trump.

Biden is at 50% today, Trump at 43% rounding off. In other words 2020 is a whole different ballgame than 2016, especially in the amount of undecided's. The lesser amount of undecided I think is huge this go around.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 02:50 AM
Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

1. Durham report which will be massaged by AG Barr to say Pres Obama killed Pres Kennedy .... and not only will Trump supporters believe it but all of the stupid and ignorant will.

2. Johnson/Grassley/Graham political opposition research funded by American taxpayers will conclude VP Biden not only stole money from Ukraine but personally planted the bugs which were used to spy on candidate Trump .... and again etc etc

Despite any polling analysis from Perotista, it is still too early to be counting either chickens or eggs.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 04:06 AM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Don't underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate.

1. Durham report which will be massaged by AG Barr to say Pres Obama killed Pres Kennedy .... and not only will Trump supporters believe it but all of the stupid and ignorant will.

2. Johnson/Grassley/Graham political opposition research funded by American taxpayers will conclude VP Biden not only stole money from Ukraine but personally planted the bugs which were used to spy on candidate Trump .... and again etc etc

Despite any polling analysis from Perotista, it is still too early to be counting either chickens or eggs.
You're absolutely correct. From the numbers today, the polls, they let you know how things stand today. Not 7 weeks from today. The numbers look very good today for Biden. In fact they've looked good for the past three months. Biden steadily between 48-51 in the polls over that 3 month span. Never high, never lower. Trump between 40-43, again never higher and never lower. I've never seen an election or campaign where the numbers have remained as steady with so little movement than this one. Perhaps it is all CoronaVirus related with little to no rallies or campaign visits to speak of.

Biden's lead over the last three months has been steady also, no lower than 7 points and no higher than 9 points. In 2016 Hillary's lead fluctuated from 6 points in June down to Trump taking a 1 point lead at the end of July, back to 7 points in mid October, down to 1 before finishing with 3 point poll lead for Hillary which won the popular vote by 2. Lot's of movement 4 years ago. Hardly none this year in comparison. I think having 20% undecided and in flux caused that movement 4 years ago whereas 7% this year, everything been pretty steady.

But there are still 7 weeks to go, anything can happen.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 05:16 AM

The Dems know this Durham Report is coming and it looks so shady that even a top deputy for Durham quit last week because of it. The Dems need to have their refute story together and be able to circulate the story quickly in the press.

As I wrote earlier, the GOP "October surprise" is yet another boring reading of "Joe Biden, Eastern European Money Launderer," a one-act play by V. Putin.

When Joe becomes prezzie, Joe needs to read Trump and Barr for filth and the Library needs to be open. smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 12:25 PM
Here's something I've been talking about, FYI

Biden’s Vulnerability

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/briefing/nfl-yoshihide-suga-oracle-your-monday-briefing.html
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 05:15 PM
I predict Mr Trump will not concede if he loses. I predict he will not implement transition teams. I predict he will not attend the inauguration if he loses nor will he leave the WH. I predict he will have claimed not only a contested election but major irregularities which obviate him leaving the WH. He will have AG Barr file petition claiming election was compromised by China and Iran and therefore should be abrogated.

Now for all the optimism of a Democrat electoral win, I say it may be irrelevant to the greater issues of an existential threat to our democracy.

Congress can't force him out of WH. SC can't force him out of WH. You can't force him out of WH. He controls the military (and if he claims an electoral process which is invalid and he will), the military would have no choice but to follow his orders as long as they were no illegal. In this case they would be legal as he would still be the occupant of the WH.

Sometimes a win is not a win until the loser concedes. As a narcissist he is not a loser, and so would never concede.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 05:28 PM
Quote
As I wrote earlier, the GOP "October surprise" is yet another boring reading of "Joe Biden, Eastern European Money Launderer," a one-act play by V. Putin.
But you see...that would be no surprise at all!

There's a reason they call it an "October Surprise", a revamp of an old scandal is no surprise.

There will be new developing surprises on the horizon soon...but not until September has passed.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 05:43 PM
Quote
I predict Mr Trump will not concede if he loses. I predict he will not implement transition teams. I predict he will not attend the inauguration if he loses nor will he leave the WH. I predict he will have claimed not only a contested election but major irregularities which obviate him leaving the WH. He will have AG Barr file petition claiming election was compromised by China and Iran and therefore should be abrogated.
Fairly safe predictions for the glass half empty crowd.

But Trump never has to concede and can claim anything he wants. A certain amount of proof will be required...his word as "president" is not enough to keep him in office once the voters and(hopefully) the Electoral College have spoken.

I expect he will fly to Mare-A-Lago prior to the inauguration where private jets and fast yachts will be able to whisk him safely away at a moments notice should things get gnarly in the courts.

The Trump Reality Show is about to be canceled.
Quote
occupant of the WH

Occupying the White House does not make you President. The Constitution clearly states that he's done on January 20th. Even if Biden was sworn in at some secret location, the video would be released immediately. Then all of Trump's orders would be meaningless, and any military person who obeyed them would be in great danger of serving a long time in the stockade. Biden would be commander in chief, and all the military would be his to command.

Trump would not be an occupant of the White House. He would be a trespasser. The location has no magical properties.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 06:59 PM
This is, I think, the Trump October Surprise. There are, however, problems. Right now nobody believes ANYTHING that comes out of the Trump camp and that also includes the United States Attorney General Barr. Same holds with the other side, nobody there believes anything unless it comes from either Trump or Fox and, if it does come from Trump, and is not in Trump's interest, they will ignore that too.

Seems to me that both sides are determined to think what they damned well please and devil takes the hindmost.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 08:58 PM
well sorta

These guys are too dumb to be elected officials or maybe that is the way it is supposed to be. Sen's Johnson, Grassley, and Graham appear to be believe until it is in a report, it is a well hidden secret. Maybe you should sell these clowns a clue .... everyone already knows what the reports will say (including the Durham report), so that doesn;t make them a surprise ... unless of course you are a Republican, then like the proverbial goose, they wake up in a new world every morning.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 09:13 PM
the half full glass would be appropriate if Mr Trump were a rational person .... and that is where the rest of your post becomes irrelevant. You have assumed he would do the right thing ... well ... because that is what every previous president did. Seems like you are in denial regarding Mr Trump's personality disorder. He is a narcissist. All bets are off.

To really analyze what speculatively may happen .... put yourself in a narcissists shoes ... if you can't do that (I know it's hard) then read Mary Trump's book .... read the many articles written by psychiatrists about Mr Trump's personality. It is way beyond debate ... he is a narcissist. This is not the same as "he has a big ego", he has a mental disorder. He is compelled to lie to maintain his delusion he is the greatest person who ever lived. He knows more than generals, doctors, scientists, etc.

Ask yourself how a person who believes he is the greatest president to ever live .... a person who believes he may be a gift from God ... a person who only thinks of himself could ever admit defeat ... to admit he is second best .... substandard .... worthless .... etc. If his advisors told him he had to go, he may have them all shot as part of a deep state coup.

It appears in a report the military have considered the possibility he loses and then issues illegal orders.

If you are not prepared, you will forced to play "The World Turned Upside Down" and perhaps be forced to suffer 4 more years.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 09:29 PM
and you believe that 4 years of preparation by Mr Trump was for show?????

Suppose on Nov 3 (or in the following days) we learn VP Biden won. You know Mr Trump is out ... I know it .... but does Mr Trump know it? Mr Trump may ( and I can only speculate based on his personality disorder) not accept that reality as his own. He has told his supporters the only way the Democrats could win is if they cheat. If I were a narcissist I would start the machinery already in place to maintain the delusion. He would send AG Barr into action .... he would call on Republican states to disqualify the votes as fraudulent ... he would call on the courts to support him. So by Jan 6 there may not even be an electoral college vote. VP Biden can't inaugurate himself (unless he thinks he's Napoleon) and we would still have the current occupant remaining in the WH. My use of the words is a metaphor for the fountain of power from whence Mr Trump will claim the office.

I am perplexed when people do not see this as a real possibility. Check the video of Mr Trump pushing aside Montenegro PM. Why would anyone think he would go willingly or quietly????
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 09:34 PM
LOL

Have you ever been to the circus? Mr Trump is the consummate ringmaster. He could make the dumb ignorant citizenry (and this is not limited to Trump supporters) believe the elephant dung they are eating is wagyu steak.

On Nov 1, Mr Trump will you believing he invented November the 1st.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 09:48 PM
Quote
This is, I think, the Trump October Surprise.
It's not October! Is there something y'all are missing about October surprises? They happen in October and they cannot be easily predicted.

Thus they have earned their name.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/14/20 11:12 PM
I expect all sorts of fireworks come November. I expect Trump will deny that he lost, that he will try to discredit the election. I expect he will not attend the inauguration and will claim his crowd was bigger.

But I also expect that, despite all that, he will be defeated and he will vacate the White House.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 12:37 AM
Sounds about right.

Trump knows he's losing and is getting ever more desperate. I don't think he has the balls or the backing to push the election results too far.

But he is facing a lot of litigation as private citizen Trump.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 03:04 AM
It is unknown when Sen Johnson will publish his Senate report but should be soon ... maybe first week of October. In it he will claim VP Biden is unfit to be president because of Ukrainian corruption .... or at least that is what he is already saying.

So that will be first up of the Senate reports.

When Sen Johnson was asked if he relied on any Russian propaganda, especially from Derkach, he responded by saying no. He relied only on FBI materials. The interviewer failed to ask if any of that material included files from Derkach. Derkach claimed he had been in contact with Republican senators.
I suspect when everybody knows he's lost, he will have a psychotic break and be drugged into docility. He'll probably be shipped off to some very private sanitarium "to recover from a health problem". I just can't see him taking part in a transition of power. Maybe Pence even gets put in command. There are just too many people in the Secret Service who want the US to remain a Constitutional Republic instead of a South American Dictatorship. Trump may have his fans there, but mostly these are educated professionals sworn to uphold the Constitution. No Governor will claim his state's voting was rigged, mainly because the Republican Governors are from Red states where Trump is likely to win! They might claim some other state's voting was rigged, but they have no power to affect the process in other states.

Voting in America is actually very transparent: You can count the precinct tallies and see that they add up to the state totals. States have their own rules about winner-take-all or proportionate electoral votes, and those would have to have been changed by the state assembly long ago.

If you want to rig elections it's way easier to manipulate voters' opinions, and suppress voting.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 06:50 PM
The October surprise is being set up, right now. In October you can be sure that they will en announce the results of an investigation that has been going on for quite some time. One person, in the investigator's office has now quit because of the impending investigation results are scheduled to be close to election time.

I don't think its gonna work due to all the early voting that will have already taken place. All the talking heads are pretty much in agreement. There are not very many voters who have not already made up their minds and will probably vote as early as they can.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 08:10 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
The October surprise is being set up, right now. In October you can be sure that they will en announce the results of an investigation that has been going on for quite some time. One person, in the investigator's office has now quit because of the impending investigation results are scheduled to be close to election time.

I don't think its gonna work due to all the early voting that will have already taken place. All the talking heads are pretty much in agreement. There are not very many voters who have not already made up their minds and will probably vote as early as they can.
Here's how we know that the GOP's "October Surprise" will be the Durham Report:
  • The GOP saw how effective Comey's late-October 2016 announcment regarding HRC was.
  • Bill Barr said under questioning by the Senate this past summer that he would not commit to not releasing the report just before the election.
  • The GOP are walking, talking, rectums aka aholes.
smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 10:08 PM


Monmouth poll: Biden up 5 points on Trump in Florida

09/15/20

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 11:42 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick

Here's all the latest Florida polling.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Your Monmouth poll has a MOE, margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points. Almost 5 points which means Biden lead could be anywhere between 0.3 points to 9.7 points. Interesting, Florida Atlantic poll just the day prior to Monmouth had Florida in a tie.

The way I look at these things is going by RCP average which puts Biden up by 1.6 points, plus or minus a 3 point MOE. In other words, in my mind, Florida is a dead heat. Or utilizing the MOE, Trump could be leading by 1.4 points or trailing by 4.6 points. The truth is somewhere in-between those last two figures.

Until whose ever lead goes above the MOE, outside of the MOE, I consider it a tossup or a dead even race. That's me, how I look at these things. I also never trust just one poll when there are others which can be averaged out.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/15/20 11:51 PM


But, here's the thing...Flor-i-duh shouldn't even be a toss-up for Trump, nor should North Carolina. Both states should be firmly in the Trump camp...but they're not. THAT's the point. smile

The FACT that Mike Bloomberg choose to spend $100 million in Florida is not a coincidence. The move is totally to troll Trump.

(1) $100 million is exactly that Trump said he'll pull out of his own money to spend on the campaign. (As if! Trump spend money? He's so cheap that he squeezes pennies so hard that Lincoln squeals.)

(2) Florida is Trump's new "home" and it looks like he can't even win that.

LOL
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 01:33 AM
Florida for the last 5 election has been decided by less than three points. It's went Democratic twice and Republican three times. Florida is the epitome of a tossup or swing state.

Now states like North Carolina, Arizona, Biden leads in both, along with Georgia and Texas which Biden trails narrowly, should be easy Trump wins. They're not.

If Biden flips just two states that Trump won in 2016, Arizona and Florida that would give Old Joe a 272-264 win. Now if Biden can keep a hold of Arizona, take Pennsylvania and Michigan, he can lose Florida and still come out on top 280-258. You can add Wisconsin to Biden's total as I don't see Trump winning the three deciding states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin a second time. 290-248 and the romp is taking place. Add North Carolina, another pure tossup along with Ohio it's 323-215. But I'm getting way ahead of the game.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 01:49 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Florida for the last 5 election has been decided by less than three points. It's went Democratic twice and Republican three times. Florida is the epitome of a tossup or swing state.
So Flor-i-duh goes to the ReTHUGlicons 60% of the time. smile As I wrote, Flor-i-duh should be in Trump's corner, but it's not.

smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 01:50 AM


There are five ways Joe Biden can win:

1. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona: Biden wins all three states — his best option, given the political environment.
2. Michigan and Pennsylvania + two congressional districts — Nebraska-02 and Maine-02.
3. The Rust Belt: Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
4. Michigan and the Sunbelt: Biden carries Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
5. Florida +1: Biden carries Florida, getting him to 261 electoral votes. A win in any of the other battleground states would put him well past 270.

More than the options that you're presenting. smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 03:07 AM
If you have to devise Goldbergian scenarios on how someone can win .... it means the race is too close to call.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 03:57 AM
I don't know that "being to close to call" has ever stopped anybody from calling a race.

I called it for the Democrats before the primaries. It was "too soon to call it" then.

But at this point...it's way closer than it oughta be. That's probably a good thing because a close race is gonna pull more voters off the couches, prompt more voters to fill in those ballots and get them in the mail.

All the indicators are pointing towards a Democratic sweep and I'm pretty confident that's what we're gonna see.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 01:02 PM
If you look back on 2016, you had days when Trump lead by 1 and Hillary as many as 7. Now Hillary lead from 1 Sep through election day from 1-7 points. Ending with a 3 point lead in RCP averages on election day, she won the popular vote by 2 points. That a gap or swing of 8 points that were in flux, Trump by 1 to Hillary's 7 point lead.

So far this year, Biden's lead has been between 6-9 points A 3 point gap or 3 points in flux. This is probably due to the number of undecided's and those stating they'll vote third party. 20% in 2016 until around 1 Oct vs 8% today.

There's no doubt Trump has closed a national 9 point lead down to 6 today over the last couple of weeks. Could that be because of the protests turning violent which some folks, especially in the suburbs wanting to feel safe are switching to Trump? That is unknown as it could be many factors which this is probably one.

Three weeks ago Biden led Trump by 9 points among suburb voters, today he leads by 6, 47-41. Nationally, regionally, Biden leads big time in the Northeast by 15 points and in the west by 19. But Trump has a slight 2 point advantage in the Midwest and the south. California explains Biden huge lead in the west, he leads Trump by 21 points in California, 25 in Washington state and 22 in Oregon. The east is explain by Biden's 28 point lead in New York, 34 points in Massachusetts and 21 in New Jersey.

Those states provide Biden his lead nationally. So this race may be much closer than anyone thought to include me. Regardless of Florida, I still don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for a second time.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 03:44 PM
LOL

Quote
So this race may be much closer than anyone thought to include me.
Gee ... I guess all my typing was for naught.

Quote
I still don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for a second time.
I wonder if you can buy a cup of covfefe with that line?

and this is for the numbers folks ... maybe Dr (Democrat) Feelgood designed the model
2020 presidential Election Forecast

Brush up on regression analysis to see where and how it is used in many areas of life. The prediction still does not make me feel any better nor does it change the uneasy feeling I have for the future.

Enjoy
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 04:10 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
LOL

Quote
So this race may be much closer than anyone thought to include me.
Gee ... I guess all my typing was for naught.

Quote
I still don't think Trump can win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania for a second time.
I wonder if you can buy a cup of covfefe with that line?

and this is for the numbers folks ... maybe Dr (Democrat) Feelgood designed the model
2020 presidential Election Forecast

Brush up on regression analysis to see where and how it is used in many areas of life. The prediction still does not make me feel any better nor does it change the uneasy feeling I have for the future.

Enjoy
I paid attention R, that's why I went back looking at the numbers. Nonetheless, I still don't think Trump is capable of winning a second time Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. All were such narrow victories with Trump winning the independents vote in those states from a 17 point margin in Michigan, by 10 in Wisconsin and 8 in Pennsylvania. Trump in my opinion will be unable to win independents in those states by those margins. Keep in mind, Democrats totally outnumber Republicans in all three.

Another factor was in 2012 Obama won the union household vote by an average of 20 points in those three states. Hillary won them by only a 9 point average. Time will tell if I'm reading these 3 states right.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 06:33 PM
Because the race is as "close" as it is it's entirely possible for Trump to win.

It's tons of fun to build Golbergian models around that possibility too.

So what if he does win...is it the end of the world? No matter who wins, we're looking at that possibility anyway.

I intend to watch with fascination as civilization collapses around us.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 07:10 PM
So for the folks who believe it is hard for Republicans to game the election process, resulting in a contested election, maybe ending up in the House where Mr Trump will win a second term, Hans von Spakovsky of Heritage Foundation and a renown voter fraud conspiracy theorist has been consulting in private with Republican Sec of State in several import states. This guy is looking for ways Republicans can cheat ... by disenfranchising voters through voter rolls deletions and ending mail-in voting. Now he has been known for promoting the idea of rampant voter fraud and yet the very organization he works for has only found 1300 cases of voter fraud since 1982. His only purpose is to steal an election.

If you think it can't happen in America, then it is too late.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/16/20 07:13 PM
I do think we as a nation are destroying ourselves from within. It's the polarization, the divided nation along with mega, ultra high partisanship where the old ways of playing the give and take game, compromise has been lost.

Today, it seems each party believes the other is out to destroy this nation and only one's party can save it. The other party has become this nation's number enemy. Not more than 20-25 years ago, both major parties recognized the goal of each party was the same, a prosperous, secure and free America. Only their path's to achieve that goal were somewhat different.

It's only going to get worse, regardless of who wins in November.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 12:26 PM
Here's a good article on favorable ratings of Biden/Trump and several past candidates for the president. Feel free to compare and come to your own conclusions.

Trump, Biden Favorable Ratings Both Below 50%

https://news.gallup.com/poll/320411...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I find articles like this very useful for my forecasts on another site.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 02:28 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I do think we as a nation are destroying ourselves from within. It's the polarization, the divided nation along with mega, ultra high partisanship where the old ways of playing the give and take game, compromise has been lost.
Welp, if you Righties didn't insist on dragging the rest of us with you on your racist and bigoted, economically stingy, socially injustice joyride through life, we might get along better.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 04:09 PM
Hmm, righty huh? Yeah, on some issues, right. On others left. Most others I don't care about or are irrelevant to me.

But I think your reply shows how the mega, ultra high partisanship has taken over our politics. Just give me everything I want and we'll get along fine. Stop having a different political point of view or a different political ideology and we'll get along fine. Just agree with me on everything and we will get along great.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 06:03 PM
Quote
Just agree with me on everything and we will get along great.
I'll start with Newt Gingrich. He was followed by a whole slew of Tea People. etc I have never seen nor heard any of them say they were willing to compromise on anything ... Rep Gaetz? ... Jordan? .... Meadows? .... etc

Now it is quite true there are rank and file hyper-partisans on both sides but I am having a hard time of finding any liberal elected official in Congress who has said ... my way or the hiway.

You appear to know of such people. I would like a short list so I can send critical email to them. I am a terrible negotiator. I would have sold America for 3 nickels, a dime, and an old postage stamp, all because I would have felt sorry for the other party.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 06:42 PM
LOL...You're more conservative than me, Pero, but I don't think I'd call you a "righty".

Near as I can tell Rick isn't even a "lefty". He's a liberal who trends progressive. You, Pero, I'd judge to be a moderate who trends liberal.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 07:06 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
LOL...You're more conservative than me, Pero, but I don't think I'd call you a "righty".

Near as I can tell Rick isn't even a "lefty". He's a liberal who trends progressive. You, Pero, I'd judge to be a moderate who trends liberal.

Yeah, that's why I got a big kick out of that. There's no doubt I'm left on most social issues. I used to call myself a fiscal conservative and a social liberal. But the GOP isn't fiscal conservative anymore, other than rhetoric which is meaningless. Their actions are the same as the Democrats, only the Democrats are honest about it. I suppose I would classify it as Republicans, low taxes and spend, spend, spend. Democrats raise taxes and spend, spend, spend.

So I'm slowly moving over toward the Democratic side on fiscal policy. I was one who adamantly opposed Trump's tax cuts. But for me, being fiscally responsible is not spending more than you take in. But since the Democrats comes the closest to that, I'll side with them on most fiscal issues also. I'm all for Biden's proposed tax increase.

I think one of the big differences between us is I like to go slow, trying to keep as many people in their comfort zone as possible. You seem to like gigantic leaps which throws a lot of folks out of their comfort zone and in the next election, you pay the price by losing it.

Since I'm also involved in election forecasts, I tend to look at things, issues, more as a political strategist than any normal person would. Slow and steady was pretty much the Democratic Party's mantra between 1955-1994 when they controlled the house for 40 straight years. Even in 1964, civil rights bill and the 1965 voting rights act, the Democrats had a 115 seat majority and could afford to lose 50 seats, which they did and still have a 65 seat majority.

Let's say a time for everything.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 08:40 PM
I dunno about giant leaps...I'm generally happy to see any progress at all. The only movement I've seen for many years has been backwards.

My ultimate goals are giant leaps from where we are today...but I'd settle for a few small steps forward.

Living wage.

Education.

Healthcare.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 09:36 PM
I have no problem with that. Using the ACA as an example, it took way too many people out of their comfort zone and hence a red wave occurred in 2010 to the tune of 63 seats lost. I think if Obama and the Democrats took more time to explain instead of just jumping in, it would have went smoother with lot less loses. Or did some this year, some next year, a little more the year after etc. without losing the house.

But that's the political strategist talking here. When you look at, on average a 55-40 opposition to it, perhaps it was the wrong time. Who knows what other issues could have been tackled successfully with a little at a time approach or putting the ACA on the back burner for a year or two. Immigration, infrastructure, your living wage, education, all could have been addressed with the democrats in firm control of the house and the senate.

The way things are these days, in the era of polarization and mega, ultra high partisanship, all it takes is the lost of the House or the senate to put a stop to any forward movement. With the ACA it was a one and done for Obama. That is outside of what he could do with his phone and a pen.

Of course I have an entirely different outlook on these things than most and perhaps everyone else. Was the ACA worth it with everything else put on hold and or not addressed at all. I think most Democrats would answer that in the affirmative, not me though. I look on it as a 2 year gain, then a 6 year loss of opportunity. A six year loss of high hopes because the Republican House was going to stop everything Obama tried to do.

Take folks out of their comfort zone, that makes them angry and they rebel. I just hope Biden and company learned this lesson from 2010. If not, we'll see a Republican House in 2022. Again, that the strategist inside me speaking. Give the people what they want in the amount they want I suppose is the bottom line.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/18/20 10:34 PM
Republicans never seem to take people out of their comfort zone....

No matter how many die, or how many go hungry, or how many are denied the basic dignities of life. If Democrats attempt to do anything at all for the good of the nation and the people it will be deemed to radical and will take too many people out of their comfort zone.

Honestly...The clown show that has been the Trump administration has not taken enough people out of their comfort zone to make this race close enough to call? But if you offer them affordable healthcare they freak out and elect Republicans who don't want you to have it.

That right there is sad.
Republicans did not respond to ACA by denying Obama everything, good for the country or not. They announced that total partisan opposition on Day 1. They used ACA to raise the stink and get the voters riled up about Obama. If he hadn't signed ACA, it just would have been something else. After all, ACA was almost identical to RomneyCare but with a smaller non-participation tax. I think the Democrats biggest mistake was not calling it RomneyCare right up front. Republicans invented the label "ObamaCare" in an attempt to make it a partisan issue, even though they wrote a lot of the bill.

Funny, Romney participated a lot more in the creation of RomneyCare, and there was very little backlash at all.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/19/20 03:03 AM
Quote
Republicans invented the label "ObamaCare" in an attempt to make it a partisan issue, even though they wrote a lot of the bill.
They could have called it "HusseinCare" to really PO the ignorant
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/19/20 11:36 AM
I think the main point or my main point is in order to accomplish something one first must win an election. To keep accomplishing things, one must then win reelection or control of the House and senate.

I think one of the Democrats fault was they pushed things that a majority of Americans weren't ready for yet. Either that went went too far, beyond what the people were ready to accept and support at the time and things like 1994 and 2010 happen.

Of course that is their decision. I am pretty sure the Democrats in congress never thought when they passed the ACA it would be a one and done for them even though they knew a good size majority of Americans were against it. That they would immediately lose control of the House and lose 8 senate seats immediately following its passage.

That stopped progress on every other issue in its tracks. sometimes it may be wise to listen to the American people. That is if you want to make progress on other issues and not only one.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/19/20 11:45 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Republicans did not respond to ACA by denying Obama everything, good for the country or not.

Funny, Romney participated a lot more in the creation of RomneyCare, and there was very little backlash at all.

Only political junkies knew anything at all about RomneyCare in Massachusetts since it didn't have any effect at all on the other 49 states. It was totally irrelevant to those living in all other states than Massachusetts. Obamacare effected all 50. Huge difference.

Your average American Joe knew nothing about Romneycare and if they did, they could care less because it had no effect on them. I would wager 90% of all Americans at the time didn't even know what it was outside of Massachusetts. Those that did were the highly political active and very heavily in politics and campaigns.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/19/20 01:13 PM
[Linked Image from imgs.xkcd.com]

'Wait, our state has mail voting. The forms are literally on the kitchen table.' 'Not now, I'm busy researching which channels have sharks in them.'

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/19/20 06:21 PM
Maybe it wasn't about Obamacare at all.

Maybe it was entirely a racist reaction.

The same racist reaction that might put Trump back in the WH for another term.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/20/20 02:20 PM

538's electoral college vote prediction model.

They run 40,000 scenarios each time. The graphic shows the top 100 results.

Last weekend it had Biden winning 70 scenarios, Trump 29, with one toss-up.

Today it's Biden 77 to Trump 22, and one toss-up.

538 election forecast
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/20/20 03:16 PM
statistical models ... yep

now which one of the 77 scenarios do you think is true and valid today? ever flip coins and get heads 8 times in a row? what happened to 50-50?

I have great faith my analysis and conclusion the American electorate are in large part stupid and ignorant remains true and valid today as it was yesterday ... still looks too close to call (with a MOE + or - 5 grin for the statisticians)
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/20/20 03:21 PM
For the last 3 months according to RCP averages Biden has been at 49/50 while Trump at 42/43. Which leaves only around 8% undecided at this time or over the last 3 months. That's quite different from 2016 when you had fluctuations for Trump between 35-44 and Hillary between 41-46 with the lead for Hillary ranging from minus 1 to plus 7. You also had a huge undecided column of between 15-20% depending on the day.

In 2016 Hillary never rose above 46% in the polls whereas Biden has been flirting with the 50% mark for the last 3 months. On 20 Sep 2016 Trump was at 41%, today he's at 43%. Hillary was at 42%, today Biden is at 49%. Although Trump is doing 2 points better this year than in 2016, Biden is 7 points better than Hillary was in 2016. The third party vote is down from 12% in 2016 to a meager 4% this year.

I think the difference is due to 12% of independents voting third party, against both Trump and Clinton because they dislike both and didn't want neither one to become their next president. This year, they dislike Biden a whole lot less than they did Clinton while their dislike of Trump remains steady. So Biden in my opinion is picking up at least half of that 12% who opted to vote third party in 2016. Hence the difference between 43 and 49%.
I wonder about this:

1 in 4 Americans Trust Trump About Vaccine

As we get closer to the election, Trump pushing the vaccine could actually hurt his chances for getting reelected. Only 50% of Republicans now say they would get a vaccine. (80% of Democrats) There are a lot of anti-vaxers in Trump's base.

So they don't trust him about the safety of a rushed vaccine, yet they are willing to let him run the country unchecked for the next four years virtually unchecked by anything? Cognitive dissonance much? I wonder if a number of them will carry that distrust into the voting booth.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 01:36 AM
Good interesting information.

The up-for-grabs vote
"Nearly 50 percent of all registered voters in the poll say there’s no chance at all they would support Trump in the election, while close to 40 percent of voters say the same of Biden.

That leaves, according to the NBC News/WSJ pollsters, 11 percent who appear to be up for grabs between the two candidates.

These up-for-grabs voters have mostly negative views of both Trump and Biden, and their 2020 preference is divided among Trump (27 percent), Biden (20 percent), neither (27 percent) and not sure (24 percent)."

https://news.yahoo.com/tumultuous-month-news-biden-maintains-130000063.html

More interesting info in the link above.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 04:08 AM
Quote
These up-for-grabs voters have mostly negative views of both Trump and Biden
Lots of folks have negative opinions of both parties and neither candidate is a particularly stellar choice.

I'm still banking on an anti-Trump surge. Pollsters and the media are downplaying the numbers to keep it looking like a horserace.

All Biden has to do to win is stay alive.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 11:20 AM

Poor ReTHUGliCONS, the mothership RNC keeps having to send money to Florida and Texas. The RNC should never have to send money to TexASS. LOL

...and then there is this: Record-breaking donations pour in from the left after Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death smile Decent Americans
can't stand you right-wing politicos and want you g-o-n-e. coffee
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 01:10 PM
Looking at the horse race numbers alone is a mistake I think. For me the most important numbers are by comparison the 20% of undecided, stating they'd vote third party in 2016 to just 8% today.

You're correct the number of folks who dislike both major parties are growing as both major parties shrink. I don't think there is or will be an anti Trump surge. What I think is nationwide we had 6%, some 9 million voters who voted third party in 2016 because they disliked both major party candidates intensely. Right now I would say none of those 9 million have changed their minds or dislike of Trump and at least half have sided with Biden to pretty much zero with Trump.

Trump's dislike factor is the same as in 2016, Biden's is much less than Hillary's and she still won the popular vote by 2 points. That is Biden's advantage, at least so far. He is disliked much less than Hillary was while Trump's dislike portion remains steady, the same as in 2016.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 03:49 PM
maybe a half glass full person you are

VP Biden will win the national regardless of any variables (Sen Johnson report coming soon or USAG Barr's pro-Trump biased synopsis of US Att Durham's report, or Trump's failure to stop Russian meddling). The electoral vote I still fear is a toss-up. regardless of statistical machinations.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 06:32 PM
Battleground states although this doesn't list all.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/

Not listed, Ohio

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_biden-6765.html

Georgia

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_biden-6974.html

Texas

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

With the above states being placed in the tossup column, Biden leads 233-132. Now Biden leads outside the margin of error in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. These states would be at least classified as lean Democratic with Wisconsin and Arizona probably likely democratic. If they stay the same, being outside the margin of error, I see no reason as of today why they shouldn't, that give Biden 290 electoral votes. States within the margin of error include Ohio, Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Those 5 states are your true tossup's at this point.

The key, keep the so called blue wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin plus add Arizona and the rest are irrelevant. Who would have thought placing Ohio, Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina into the irrelevancy category.

This is as of today, not in November.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/21/20 08:20 PM
I can see where we may have a different view of polling.

I believe polling numbers have a low viscosity where the mere mention of a report detailing a perception of impropriety could exert a huge gravitational influence on those numbers ... but it only applies to Biden's numbers. Mr Trump's numbers have been and will probably continue to hover where they are, much like a high viscosity tar, until the application of the multi-fecta .... Sen Johnson report, AG Barr's attack on Pres Obama based on US Att's Durham;s report, Sen Graham's report detailing a cabal bent on political coup, and of course the coup de grace ... a vaccine just days before the election .... ahhh .... victimized by Pres Obama but savior of America.

I can imagine VP Biden's cheeks turning ashen through exsanguination of his polling numbers, all in a matter of weeks.


Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 12:20 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
These up-for-grabs voters have mostly negative views of both Trump and Biden
Lots of folks have negative opinions of both parties and neither candidate is a particularly stellar choice.

I'm still banking on an anti-Trump surge. Pollsters and the media are downplaying the numbers to keep it looking like a horserace.

All Biden has to do to win is stay alive.

I think you are pretty much mostly spot on. The reason Trump and Co are trying to mock him into coming out of his basement is because running as Generic Democrat You Have Heard About Before But Who Never Spearheaded Anything That Ticked You Off Personally, while Trump continues to periodically self-immolate, is the best strategy.

Napoleon put it best: Never interrupt an enemy when they are making a mistake.

That being said, I think the bar is slightly higher than that for Biden to lose. If he publicly demonstrates serious mental incapacity (for example, if he falls asleep during a debate or begins to shout garbled nonsense like a dementia patient), that could cost him the election. He has to be both

Alive

and

Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 12:45 AM
Quote
Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.

Well then we're in luck! Biden has functioned at that level all his life...
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 12:59 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Quote
Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.

Well then we're in luck! Biden has functioned at that level all his life...
Trump, on the other hand...
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 03:00 AM
why the double standard???

Quote
Minimally capable of functioning as an adult human being.
Mr Trump fails miserably and yet his supporters believe it is value added ...
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 11:16 AM
I've said before, polls give you a snapshot of where things stand today. I like RCP as they average out all the recent polls minimizing the effect of a skewed poll. Yet, that snapshot doesn't mean November, it means today.

As for the future, you can look for trends which a long period of polls will provide. Perhaps looking at the last six months of polls, there hasn't been a trend. By that I mean Biden has been steady within the 48-50% range, Trump within the 41-43 point range. No jumps up and down.

I never seen a race as steady as this one has been. During the six month period in 2016, Trump fluctuated between 35-43 while Hillary was between 40-46. You had a trend where Trump trailed by six, took the lead by one, then Hillary short up to a 7 point lead before ending on election day with RCP averages stating she would win the popular vote by 3 points. She won it by 2 well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.

So we had a trend at the beginning of 2016 going Hillary's way, then Trump's, back to Hillary's and toward the end of October, first part of November, the trend went back toward Trump. No trends so far in 2020, No 6,7, 8 point fluctuations.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 12:21 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
... No trends so far in 2020, No 6,7, 8 point fluctuations.
Indeed, the polls have remained consistently in Joe's favor. That's why Trump and McConnell are scared and nervous. smile
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 03:05 PM
The Republican tax payer funded smear machine has not yet begun to smear VP Biden.

The American electorate does not possess the wherewithal to properly decipher political propaganda.

Johnson Report
Graham Report
Durham Report
Barr Report
vaccine for all

Look I am convinced .... VP Biden is the son of the son of Satan and Mr Trump is America's savior

I think the next four years are going to be very unpleasant for Republicans. With Biden actually trying to fix things Trump broke, the end of the Covid-19 fiasco, the stock market roaring back, and Democrats in the majority in both Houses of Congress, Republican congressmen might as well just go home. The Senate will nuke the filibuster, and that's it: Democrats will do what they want, and Article III gives them the power to make any law they pass judicial-proof.

Quote
the Supreme Court shall have appellate jurisdiction, both as to law and fact, with such exceptions, and under such regulations as the Congress shall make.

That's an enumerated power, and nothing short of constitutional amendment can remove it. So congress can make a law that says abortion is legal under any circumstances they want, and say explicitly that no court can challenge it. Or they can do whatever they want with health care or the ACA, and do the same. No need to pack the court, if you can just legislate around it anytime you want. Of course, they do have to not overstep, since they do have to get reelected. But supporting popular things like abortion access and the ACA don't lose elections.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/22/20 09:50 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
...you can just legislate around it anytime you want...
...and that's exactly what red states have done. In Louisiana for example, required a doctor who performed abortions to be registered at a hospital - things like that. Hmm
14th Amendment gives federal law supremacy over state laws. If Congress passed a judicial-proof Roe v Wade law, states would be powerless to do anything.

But my main point is that Republican's long project to pack the courts with conservative judges is useless if they lose control over Congress and the Presidency in the bargain. And that's just what they have done by supporting Trump. And sure, Republicans could always get back in power and make abortion illegal using the same tactic. But the backlash would be they lose that power at the next House election, and the Presidency at the next Presidential election, and the Senate eventually. Abortion is too popular for any Party to actually ban it.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/23/20 04:12 PM
Well the first "October" surprise is in, the Johnson Report.

I hope Republicans do a better job with the other reports and it appears the vaccine will not be authorized before Nov 3.

The Johnson Report, as one writer said, could have been written by Putin's disinformation/division sowers apparatus. I did not see any evidence of a crime, unless one considers Sec Kerry's lapse of memory (I will presume it was a lapse considering the insignificance of the incident) as a lie. Sen Johnson wrote a report full of innuendo ... there may have been a crime ... did business with shady characters ... did business with Chinese Communist Party. Unfortunately Sen Johnson could have written a report about Mr Trump with the same innuendo and included actual evidence to support some of the claims.

The goal senator was to actually make an impact on the electorate with some electrifying revelations of actual criminal activities which included VP Biden. If I were a teacher, the report gets a D but was redeemed from an F (failure to meet any of stated goals and there was no evidence) because it was written sans grammatical error.

Look you Republican clowns .... you're making me look bad. I was counting on some righteous smear campaign which would move the polling in Mr Trump's direction. I hope it does not turn out to be just as incompetent as the administration.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/23/20 08:28 PM
A opinion piece is out detailing the Trump campaign strategy to win the election and it sounds viable.

Declare the election invalid in Republican states which go with VP Biden and appeal to Republican legislatures to abrogate election returns and select only pro-Trump loyalists as electors and certify as only legitimate electors. This could end up in courts for weeks and if sent to SC the Trump campaign is booking their SC loyalists will vote with Trump.

Someone write this screenplay now!!!!! No one would believe it could really happen. Imagine a coup in broad day light to end democracy in America.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/23/20 11:51 PM
The Constitution does give the state legislature the power to determine how they award their electoral votes. Since 1868 all state legislatures has authorized the awarding of their electors via popular vote. South Carolina in 1860 was the last state where their state legislature awarded their electoral votes with no popular vote.

Since then the popular vote in any state has determine which slate of electors was chosen to cast that states electoral votes. Sure, there has been from time to time a couple of rouge or unfaithful electors who ignored the popular vote results. I highly doubt any state legislature can overturn or abrogate the election results. Unless there is a law in a state that gives the state legislature that power. I know of none, but my knowledge on that is very limited.

Now each state legislature could pass a law taking back the right to appoint or award electors to the state legislature without the people voting. That isn't about to happen. This would have to be done prior to the election.

So I think this is much ado about nothing. Especially since most states have each party on the ballot submit their own list of electors. Which list of electors that cast their votes is determine by the popular vote in their state.

I was a Perot elector in 1996 here in Georgia. Had he won, I would have cast one electoral vote him for president. But since Dole won Georgia, his slate of electors cast Georgia's electoral vote that year.
I see Trump has actually said he is going to get his pick on the Supreme Court to help him keep the office. But I doubt the Justices would do that blatantly, for fear of 1,000,000 people marching on Washington DC and burning their Court to the ground.

People are getting pretty upset, and 200,000+ have already died, no thanks to our glorious non-leader. I wouldn't be surprised if outrage becomes violent. The courts have to leave people with a sense that justice has been done, else they deliver their own justice.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/24/20 03:59 PM
Yikes!!!! Have you heard Mr Trump talk?????

Spaskovsky from the Heritage Foundation has been meeting with Republican state legislators from battleground states promoting the idea of claiming voter fraud, rejecting the popular vote and naming and certifying Trump loyal electors. If the SoS from these states does not certify the popularly elected candidate, I will conclude that group of electors has no standing at the convention of the electoral college.

So why would Spaskovsky be even talking about this plan if it were not possible legally???

Quote
I highly doubt any state legislature can overturn or abrogate the election results.
Have you listened to any of some of these Republican led states???? Check out the governors of some of these states. They are 100% Trump loyalists and cult members. Why is it so hard to believe it is possible they would try to steal an election? Mr Trump has already made it clear .... he will not lose the election.

You may say well that is just the way Mr Trump talks or something similar, but you continue to fail to recognize his narcissism and cult standing. He has the nascent foundation of a Trump militia roaming the streets. Remember the Green Revolution in Iran? Motorcycles gangsters loyal to Ayt Khamenei roaming the streets attacks protestors.

Mr Trump and his loyalists have effectively and brazenly subverted the law with Republican complicity. He was acquitted of abuse of power and you believe that did not embolden him to attempt anything with the blessing of AG Barr????

Yes, in years gone by, it would have been unimaginable, but not now.
Posted By: CPWILL Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/26/20 12:34 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I see Trump has actually said he is going to get his pick on the Supreme Court to help him keep the office. But I doubt the Justices would do that blatantly, for fear of 1,000,000 people marching on Washington DC and burning their Court to the ground.

People are getting pretty upset, and 200,000+ have already died, no thanks to our glorious non-leader. I wouldn't be surprised if outrage becomes violent. The courts have to leave people with a sense that justice has been done, else they deliver their own justice.

Insurrection?

Well, I guess they can try. Some of my relatives went that route, oh, bout a hundred and 60 years or so ago. Worked out poorly for them.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/26/20 01:49 AM
Here's something interesting from RCP. It includes the Libertarian and Green Party candidates.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e..._biden_vs_jorgensen_vs_hawkins-7225.html

What's so interesting, at least to me is we only have 4% undecided. But expect a few voters now for Jorgensen (L) to peel off and to mostly to Trump leaving Jorgensen with a bit less than 1% of the vote. The same for Hawkins (G), some to peel away and go to Biden leaving Hawkins with less than 0.5%. Third party voters are usually cut in half come election day.

If you like to compare as I do, on 25 Sep 2016 it was Clinton 42.0, Trump 39.8, Johnson 8.5, Stein 2.6, undecided 7.2%. They ended up Clinton 48.2, Trump 46.1, Johnson 3.3, Stein 1.1. You can see how the third party voters or those who state they'll vote third party drift away from voting for their third party candidate and end up voting for one or the other major party candidate. Expect the same this year with a whole lot less folks stating third party preferences.
Couldn't those final numbers just reflect Third Party voters not even bothering to vote? Seems like a lot of hassle just so your Third Party candidate can have a slightly higher losing percentage.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/26/20 01:51 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Couldn't those final numbers just reflect Third Party voters not even bothering to vote? Seems like a lot of hassle just so your Third Party candidate can have a slightly higher losing percentage.
Interesting thought. Certainly possible. The drop from 11% of the electorate planning on voting third party against both major party candidates down to the final 4.5%, certainly staying home and saying to Hades with it is very possible.

Especially since the exit polls of those who voted show the vast majority of third party voters weren't voting for their candidate, but against both Trump and Clinton. The Libertarian Party's candidate had never received more than 1% of the vote until 2016, 3.3%. That triple, more likely quadruple their normal 0.5 to 0.8%.

I hadn't thought of that, learn something new everyday. I suspect about half of those 11% planning on voting third party who didn't, decided to just to stay home and the other half decided to vote for the lesser of two evils.
I guess the only way to know would be to ask them. But I don't respond to polls now myself, because any poll I have responded to turned out to be a push poll trying to get me to vote for a certain proposition. And particularly for propositions with hidden little gotchas that benefit the authors greatly.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/27/20 01:25 PM
I never liked or paid any attention to push polls or even over night polls. Most of them are held with a certain result in mind. I stick with the nationally recognized and credited polling firms. Then it isn't just one, I go with averaging all the recent polls together, RCP is excellent site for this as is Nate Silvers 538. 270 to win, Larry Sabato will give you his polls and then the results of 5 or 6 other polls, prognosticators and how they view things.

Many, many more.
Interesting discussion of the "clean hands" doctrine that says you can't create a problem and then go into court and sue because you claim to be a victim of that problem.

Why Trump Will Lose When He Contests Election Results

His failure will be because he and AG Barr have blatantly done several things to try to rig the election for his benefit. This very experienced prosecutor explains that the courts will all dismiss any claims the election was rigged against him, because he has "dirty hands" from trying to rig the election himself.

He told people to vote for him twice, and Barr said "he didn't know if that was illegal". Trump has actually done this several times: Said something stupid and then sent his lawyers to court to argue something else, and all the judges have sent them packing because of his earlier statements. He's his own worst enemy!
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/29/20 06:53 PM
He is, obviously, counting on "his" judges to take care of him.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 01:29 AM
Tonight’s Presidential debate is almost worth Sanders losing in the primaries. Enjoying what a sh!t show this political generation is putting on tonight.
As glorious as hoped for.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 02:34 AM
#McResistance assemble!..

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 02:49 AM
I couldn't bring myself to watch it. Hoping for a highlight reel on youtube soon....
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 02:50 AM


So glad It wasn’t Sanders as the nominee. To old for the office... Nothing to do with his proposals mind you.

In all honesty, I’m glad we’re finally seeing the full venal hypocrisy with both right wing parties’ nominees tonight. Crazier and darker than I’d imagine it could be.

I’d put money on Trump by a nose. This ain’t killing off a left challenge in your rigged house like the primaries were. Biden’s got no ground game in the primaries or now in the general. Feels like a replay of 2016 but with pudding.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 04:09 AM
But...Chunks...you gota look at the polls! Biden is up by nearly 10. He's a shoo in.... grin
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 04:23 AM
Originally Posted by jgw
He is, obviously, counting on "his" judges to take care of him.
Yup....he's looking to be another SCOTUS (s)elected POTUS.

crazy
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 10:49 AM
Yeah, da numbers..
I see Trump signs vs. Biden signs at around 10-1 around me. Then again, I live in rural upstate NY that’s been moving Republican since the 80’s.

I’ve gotten no texts or phone calls from the Biden campaign. Not one. Ditto on canvassing.

No voter outreach at all, unless you count the liberal online heckling and shaming like it was in 2016. For all the screechiness of how dangerous this president is, libs sure don’t campaign like it.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 02:24 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Yeah, da numbers..
I see Trump signs vs. Biden signs at around 10-1 around me. Then again, I live in rural upstate NY that’s been moving Republican since the 80’s.

I’ve gotten no texts or phone calls from the Biden campaign. Not one. Ditto on canvassing.

No voter outreach at all, unless you count the liberal online heckling and shaming like it was in 2016. For all the screechiness of how dangerous this president is, libs sure don’t campaign like it.
Chunk, anecdotal observations do not a scientific survey make. smile
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 03:15 PM
Aw, c'mon Rick. Our whole society and political economy runs on anecdotal evidence. Heck, our politics are nothing more than warring Madison Ave. ad accounts subsidized by rich people to push the best mascot out for a minority of voters to chose.

Commodifying surveys and the attendant huckster Numerologists to explain them to us thru corporate media channels isn't exactly the same as isolating isotopes is it?

But I take your point. My location would be anecdotal, I suppose, but yard signs turned out to be a key indicator of voter enthusiasm in the key battleground states of 2016, no?

Hey, why not conduct a Rant survey?

Upstate NY- Liberal suburban enclaves are Biden by 70% if there's a colledge or large school in town. Wealthy west lake roads are mixed. East lake (less wealthy but still expensive) has more Trump v. Biden 65/35 maybe. Rural spaces between are solid Trump. Like 80%.

That's actually better than what I saw in 2016 for Hillary.

Whichew got?
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 09/30/20 04:36 PM
His problem, I think, is that he is counting on the judges he has appointed to be HIS judges. I don't think that will happen. If it does we are doomed.
Rural spaces in between cities contain very few voters in comparison. Why waste money courting those voters in NY or all places, that is sure to vote for Biden. He'd be an idiot to waste that money on a state he's going to win, when it can do some good in swing states.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/01/20 01:35 AM
I’m sure your right PIA.
As the Democratic parties realignment, as a now mostly professional class, suburban oriented, Republican allied party has proven over the last several election cycles, they seem to have only contempt for the outlying regions beyond the outer bands of metropols.

When you get the voter rolls for texting, you don’t necessarily know where the registered voter lives. There are also a helluva lot of large towns and small cities in upstate. No one I know from Buffalo to Schenectady has gotten any text or calls yet. Maybe, like Michigan, the Dems see these regions won already, as you say.

Perhaps Ranters from the battle ground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc.. could comment?


Micheal Moore has been sounding the alarm, again, on the lack of organizing and elbow rubbing in Michigan. Saying it’s looking like a repeat of 2016.

I have no dog in this fight. It’s hilarious watching the factions strategies play out. Dems burned a billion dollars, with no accountability where it went, in 2016 with an arguably more coherent candidate than Biden, who’s looking more and more as a place holder for the identitarian cop, Harris. It’s amazing, after over 200k dead and massive job loss, that Trump has been able to keep it this close.

But this is theater and everybody likes a close game. Win or lose, the rich continue to get richer while the the poor get poorer. Makes no difference what brands running the show, IMO.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/01/20 02:02 AM
Quote
It’s amazing, after over 200k dead and massive job loss, that Trump has been able to keep it this close.

Not that amazing...look at his opponent...

When Democrats realized that a warm bucket of spit would probably be able to defeat Trump...they chose Biden.

Now, if your guess is right, they're gonna try to shoehorn Harris into the presidency in 2024. She already failed miserably to attract the interest of Democratic voters and isn't liable to win that many hearts and minds as VP....

It's like fecking groundhog day y'know...?



Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/01/20 02:21 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Rural spaces in between cities contain very few voters in comparison. Why waste money courting those voters in NY or all places, that is sure to vote for Biden. He'd be an idiot to waste that money on a state he's going to win, when it can do some good in swing states.

He shouldn't have to spend money there! Grass roots voters should be buying signs flags and banners from the local Democratic Party Headquarters.

My ex just had 24 Biden/Harris signs printed to give away to her friends. I think there's one on the lawn at my town house...I haven't left the compound for weeks...my ballot has arrived, I'll vote a straight Democratic ticket same as always...not because I like Democrats...but because I hate Republicans worse.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/01/20 02:36 AM
I see little no difference between both right wing factions.
Who said it? Republican politicians are scared of their voters, Democrats hate theirs..

Democrat politicians need to be scared.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/01/20 02:46 PM

On Sunday, former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale who was demoted in July right after the disastrous Tulsa event, was taken by police to the hospital due to threats of self-harm. Today, Parscale announced that leaving the Trump campaign all-together because of stress.

Yeah...it's stressful carrying around the guilt of embezzling $140M from the Trump campaign, apparently. Because it's totally normal for campaign managers to be able to buy two luxury condos, and nice yacht and a Ferrari on their salary. coffee
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/01/20 06:35 PM
Quote
I see little no difference between both right wing factions.
I didn't say there was a big difference between the two parties, I just hate one more than the other one.

A deep visceral hatred that will not be denied.

Democrats, both the voters and the elected officials, occasionally endorse common sense answers to problems that have been nagging us for decades.

Republicans immediately strike them down, offer up nothing in return, and then find a way to make the problems worse.

All the while blaming Democrats for the problems and claiming success when the rich get richer.

It's a level of dishonesty and audacity that I, as a Southern Gentleman, simply cannot abide.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 12:07 AM
That’s one way to frame the two right wing factions dynamic.
I see Democrats, starting with the ‘new democrats’ as being the human resource department of the Republican Party. The department that does ‘feel your pain’ empathy performance while handing out pink slips and cutting pay for the rest.

The idea that they come up with common sense approaches to problems occasionally is more than offset by the violence they’ve committed on society by, well, becoming republicans and carrying their water.

What makes them intolerable is their constant belief that they’re the good people.

At least republicans are honest in their hatred towards you. Dems just convince themselves they’re not the bad guys.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 03:10 AM
I see a pity me campaign meme .... someone got the Covid so I had to stay off campaign trail .... vote for me because I had to quarantine
HOLY CRAP! Anybody see Sully's Lincoln Project ad yet?

Sully's Ad

Trump is done. I think he should be figuring out which non-extradition country to flee to about now.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 04:30 PM
Quote
non-extradition country
that would be Republican controlled Florida
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 05:59 PM
Interesting article, things could get very interesting.

"Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis throws presidential campaign into uncertainty"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-c...campaign-into-uncertainty-144958470.html
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 06:21 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
Interesting article, things could get very interesting.

"Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis throws presidential campaign into uncertainty"

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-c...campaign-into-uncertainty-144958470.html
...from your link:

Quote
Among the many questions that immediately arose, the most serious revolved around what happens to the nation’s government if a nominee for president is incapacitated or dies so close to an election. That has never happened before in American history.
Fatass Trump always has to be the first at everything... coffee
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 06:24 PM

Don't worry perotista, ol' Joe continues to test negative, plus Joe social distanced from that super spreader Trump.

smile
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 06:41 PM
HVAC mechanics can change social distance rules though..
Much study here, wonder who checks on that?
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/02/20 07:43 PM
Trump will probably be fine. I bet he breaks quarantine in five days after showing no symptoms.

He will then be able to claim that he is immune and you will be too if you catch it.



Not if his doctors all go conservative and follow FDA recommendations. He's going to have to do everything via Zoom for 14 days. What I want to know, is how many White House staff , cabinet members, Republican congressmen, and governors has this cluster infected. The Senate could end up without enough votes to confirm Trump's SC nominee. They only have one or two votes to spare.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 03:33 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
HVAC mechanics can change social distance rules though..
Much study here, wonder who checks on that?
Chunk, what does your post mean? Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 03:35 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Not if his doctors all go conservative and follow FDA recommendations. He's going to have to do everything via Zoom for 14 days. What I want to know, is how many White House staff , cabinet members, Republican congressmen, and governors has this cluster infected. The Senate could end up without enough votes to confirm Trump's SC nominee. They only have one or two votes to spare.
So far, two Rs on the Judicial Committee have tested positive. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 12:21 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Trump will probably be fine. I bet he breaks quarantine in five days after showing no symptoms.

He will then be able to claim that he is immune and you will be too if you catch it.
Per Washington Post:

Quote
As Trump’s condition deteriorated during the day Friday, the president and his team ultimately made the decision to send him to Walter Reed...

Remember, the Trump Administration doesn't 'like to cause a panic'... coffee
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 06:22 PM
Mild symptoms only. Five days. He'll come out of this stronger than before.

Yall just like to let your imaginations run wild when it comes to Trump.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 07:05 PM
Apparently the Republican Senate is no longer sure they have the votes to approve the new judge. Republican senators are now starting to report infections and have been duly appearing at face mask free meetings, parties, etc. and some are now going into quarantine. I have full confidence that others re 'toughing' it out and hoping its just gonna go away just like their dear leader said.

By the time this is all over they will have proven that just about everything that Trump has said about Covid-19 was, just as the Dems have said, just more damned Trump lies. The first thing that comes to mind that, perhaps, some true believers might change their view but, on reflection, not likely!
You know who is going to change their minds? The 40% in polls who said Trump is better able to handle the pandemic. They might like him for other reasons, but I doubt all but the batshiz-crazy can still give him this point. There are a lot of old folks in that 40% who are scared shirtless about this virus coming for them, and their guy just proved all his pandemic ideas are poop.

That's the problem with living in a fantasy world: Sometimes reality comes along and knocks the crap out of it.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 09:55 PM
Quote
some true believers might change their view
i'll take that bet.

If it did anything it hardened their support and belief Democrats poisoned him.

Greatest con man to have ever lived .... convinced some 60M people in real time in a few short years he is [you can fill in the blank with almost anything you can imagine]
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/03/20 11:44 PM
Quote
Greatest con man to have ever lived

Jeez, you're right...by the sheer numbers he has officially bamboozled more people than anyone besides Jesus Christ himself.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/04/20 04:40 PM
[Linked Image from i.redd.it]
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/04/20 05:04 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
[Linked Image from i.redd.it]
Nice!!! smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 11:38 AM
Just received this this AM, interesting in that I thought the Response to COVID-19 would be the number one issue this election. It isn't, it's number 3. Below the economy and Terrorism/National Defense.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321617...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 11:50 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Just received this this AM, interesting in that I thought the Response to COVID-19 would be the number one issue this election. It isn't, it's number 3. Below the economy and Terrorism/National Defense.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321617...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication
Looks like Dems beat the Repubs on nearly every measure. Meanwhile idiot Trump is Tweeting out to remember about Space Force and vote.

The fog of Covid is affecting his mind bigly.

Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 12:15 PM


The economy one is odd. Trump inherited Obama's economy due to the actions taken by Obama - and the Federal Reserve - in 2009 were pivotal to saving the U.S. economy and laying the groundwork for a great post recession economy - until Trump messed that up too.

If the economy were truly Trump's, it would be better than it is doing today because if he made the economy good before, he would have done it again. He hasn't done that in 9 months of Covid, because he didn't do it the first time.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 12:48 PM
The problem I have with some of these polls is that they don't break it down into those who rate the economy as number one because it's going good or those who rate the economy numbers as it is bad.

It's like gun control, they make gun control a high priority issue, but among those who rate it high are those who are for more control and those who rate it high because they are for much less control. Same for the economy, you don't know the amount of folks who think it's good and want to keep it that way or those who think it is bad and want a change.

We just know people care a lot about these issues.
They did the same thing with ACA: Lumped the folks who wanted single-payer in with the folks who wanted ACA gone, as "people opposed to ACA". I guess it's pretty easy to do the math and get a poll to favor anything you want.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 07:07 PM
Quote
We just know people care a lot about these issues.

If nobody cared about them they wouldn't be "issues".

If people agreed about them they wouldn't be problems.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 08:09 PM
Those that give him credit for the economy are slightly confused, based on Trump's history. He is, as I have said for years and have now been backed up by many talking heads, the worst businessman in the history of the nation and some even say the world! He has, basically, failed at virtually any and all things he has tried to do, for years. The economy, he did inherit from Obama, and that just kept on going in spite of his disasters like taxing imports and then claiming that the export nations were paying that tax which was yet another damned lie. He created a billion dollar bailout for farmers and they continue to go broke in spite of that.

Those that think he has been good for the economy would buy the Brooklyn Bridge if Trump offered it for sale. There is a phrase, "Ignorance is bliss" and, apparently there are many who base their lives on that one. The rest of the world continues to ban us from their nations, and look on in stunned amazement at our continuous decline whilst we think that the lying loser we have as leader is a shining example of American wonder and magnificence. We have a healthcare system which we pay more than two times the cost that other nations spend and get less than they do insofar as results are concerned. At least half the nation continues talking about "the best healthcare in the world". Talk about self delusion! We, basically, qualify as a nation embracing very close to complete mental breakdown (and, apparently, proud of it!)

China, on the other hand, is making a bid as the world's leader and just might pull it off if it offers their Covid-19 shots to the world after they inject their millions safely whilst Americans refuse shots from their own government due to distrust in THEIR own government!)
.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/05/20 08:15 PM
Quote
Trump inherited Obama's economy due to the actions taken by Obama - and the Federal Reserve - in 2009 were pivotal to saving the U.S. economy and laying the groundwork for a great post recession economy - until Trump messed that up too.

Obama's corporate bailout and abandonment of workers created an economy that worked for the top 10% while everyone else struggled. It was a façade, Trump helped prop it up but the 'rona came along and kicked all the props out and it all came crashing down.

It was the "working class" who elected Trump...and who worship him still. All the millions of people who lost their jobs and homes while Obama bailed out banks and automakers. Obama might have saved the economy but he did nothing for most workers.

When the ACA became the law of the land, full time jobs ceased to exist. Workers had to have two, or even three jobs to make ends meet and none of them provided healthcare. Jobs were scarce right up until the end of the Obama years and wages stayed flat while corporate profits soared.

Once again we witnessed a predictable economic crash when a predictable pandemic struck...and a predictable bailout of corporations and soaring profits for the corporate class as workers struggle to survive.

Joe Biden panders to unions and workers but has deep ties to the Corporate Overlords...his administration is also pretty predictable.

...just as is the gold plating of the Harris turd as the chosen heir to the throne.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/06/20 02:17 AM
Don’t know if anyone follows Michael Moore’s ‘Rumble’ podcast but ep.116 was a white hot one straight outta Flynt. Really goes to the heart of the problem with Democrats and their party. Poor Mike. I’ve been an admirer of his work and felt ‘Roger and Me’ was his great American novel.
Listening to his guest and him vent their anger and frustration at the Biden campaign over its crapping on Detroit and Flynt by parading the endorsement of former Governor Schneider made me realize something. Mike hasn’t fully come to terms with the Democratic party’s decades long realignment. He Doesn’t want to understand that the party of his Union member father and uncles is now the party of Rockefeller.
That’s fine for most Liberals that have no real problems. For those in Flynt and the rest of the sacrifice zones thru out the country, it’s been a slow motion train wreck.
If Biden does blow it in Michigan, at least after listening to this episode, we’ll have some clues why.

Or we can always talk about Russia instead. Liberals will always have Putin.

Ep.116 F**k You Flynt!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/06/20 11:49 AM
All the recent polls on Michigan, RCP averages.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

Realignment, it's funny as I was talking the other day about the old Rockefeller Liberal Republicans of the Northeast when the Northeast was Republican territory. The south solid Democrat. Now the Northeast and the south are reversed. The west coast used to be Republican, now are democratic. This was back in the time when conservative Republicans would say they believed in everything the Democrats were doing, only they wanted a little bit less.

Hillary Clinton's 51% of the union household vote was the lowest percentage ever received of union households going back to 1980 when union household was first added to the exit polls. Obama received 61% in 2008 and 60% in 2012. The highest percent for a Republican was Reagan receiving 45% of the union household vote in 1980 and 44% in 1984. G.H.W. Bush in 1992 received only 25%, Dole in 1996 31%. Perot and Bill Clinton divided the rest of the union household vote in 1992 and 1996. Gore in 2000 received 65% and Kerry in 2004 62%.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/06/20 07:33 PM
Seems being the third grade schoolyard bully didn't work in the first debate.

Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Trump loses support among 3 key demographics after debate, COVID-19 diagnosis

https://www.yahoo.com/news/yahoo-ne...te-and-covid-19-diagnosis-153500657.html
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/06/20 08:59 PM
Perotista .... none of the polling may matter nor may the actual voting results in all Republican held state legislatures, especially the battleground states. It has been confirmed the Trump campaign has contacted key Republicans in those states and advanced the legal theory state legislatures may name their own electors based on Bush v Gore, irrespective of actual voting results. All that is necessary is Republican held legislatures name Trump loyal electors and the SoS certify them as the official representatives from those states. What can be done? I don't think much. Go to court and face a conservative SC?

Folks we are witnesses to an attempt to take over America from the inside ... from the Russian candidate ... it's real .... there are no limits to what they will do

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 01:18 AM
It's not that easy. In the past each state has passed laws declaring whoever wins the popular vote is awarded that state's electoral votes. Some states do it differently, but here in Georgia for example, each candidate on the ballot must submit their list or slate of electors to the secretary of state prior to the election being held. By Georgia law, whoever wins the most popular votes, that candidates slate of electors will cast Georgia's electoral votes. Some other states have different laws, but basically the same principle.

I was a Perot elector in 1996 and had he won Georgia I would have cast one of Georgia's electoral votes. To accomplish what you stated above, those Republican states legislatures would first have to pass a new law on how they award their electoral votes or who awards them. I've heard of none doing so.

Yes, the state legislature could take back awarding of the electoral votes instead of allowing a popular vote. But in order to do, they would first would have to repeal the their current awarding law per the popular vote. By 1868 all states had passed laws regarding the awarding of electoral votes via the popular vote results. South Carolina in 1860 was the last state in which state legislatures awarded the electoral votes without a popular vote.




Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 03:12 AM
yes of course it would be unimaginable in ordinary times .... but alas as difficult as it may be for some folks to comprehend .... these are not ordinary times.

So here is how they will present it.
Quote
The Atlantic reported that a Trump campaign legal adviser said this effort would be framed as protecting the will of the people.

"The state legislatures will say, 'All right, we've been given this constitutional power. We don't think the results of our own state are accurate, so here's our slate of electors that we think properly reflect the results of our state,'&#8202;" the legal adviser told the outlet.

and the basis for their argument is Bush v Gore

Quote
The individual citizen has no federal constitutional right to vote for electors for the President of the United States unless and until the state legislature chooses a statewide election as the means to implement its power to appoint members of the Electoral College. U. S. Const., Art. II, §1. This is the source for the statement in McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U. S. 1, 35 (1892), that the State legislature’s power to select the manner for appointing electors is plenary; it may, if it so chooses, select the electors itself, which indeed was the manner used by State legislatures in several States for many years after the Framing of our Constitution. Id., at 28–33. History has now favored the voter, and in each of the several States the citizens themselves vote for Presidential electors. When the state legislature vests the right to vote for President in its people, the right to vote as the legislature has prescribed is fundamental; and one source of its fundamental nature lies in the equal weight accorded to each vote and the equal dignity owed to each voter. The State, of course, after granting the franchise in the special context of Article II, can take back the power to appoint electors. See id., at 35 (“[T]here is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated”) (quoting S. Rep. No. 395, 43d Cong., 1st Sess.).

So presumably how this works is, they would have a Trump loyalist list in waiting, the state legislature would complain about results as not reflecting will nor intention of the people and reclaim their power to appoint electors. The SoS of these states would certify the slate chosen and present to Congress. Without a certificate no other list of electors would be allowed.

But you say, the courts, the courts. And I say yes what about Trump appointed ultra conservative courts. What do you think will happen? Trump loyalists court appointees would do the right thing? Really???

While I find it unpalatable to believe anyone from the judiciary would abrogate their Constitutional duties and become partisan, this administration has me convinced. Take a look at any of the administrative departments of the federal government .... completely politicized. Take a look at Republican held Senate ... complicit in his criminal behavior.

This may be unimaginable to you but to me the possibility is getting closer to 0.5.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 03:48 AM
Quote
This may be unimaginable to you but to me the possibility is getting closer to 0.5.

Those would be shenanigans of the first order. They're in the recipe but I don't see them bubbling to the top.

Occam's razor is my favorite paring knife.
If any state legislature actually did that, they would be in grave danger of mass assassination. The majority would not take kindly to having their votes ignored. Some tiny fraction of those would still be hundreds of people with "Live Free or Die" sentiments. Remember Oklahoma City? Now imagine 200 Timothy McVeighs.

Yes, there are things people in power can do to stay in power. But they risk straining the system to the breaking point if they try some of those.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 12:04 PM
I agree with Greger and Pndering. Granted each state has its own law/s regarding the awarding of electors via the popular vote. There will be minor differences in them state to state. But overall, they say the basic thing.

Outside of that, you do have 26 states with laws binding their electors to the final outcome of the popular vote. Which states they are, I suppose you can look that up. Georgia isn't one of them.

I'm not worried one bit. Especially about a far out conspiracy theory. On another site back in 2016 many Republicans were coming up with a bunch of same type of conspiracy theories about how Obama would stay in office for a third term. I usually just shrug these off.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 12:05 PM
Another interesting article in my inbox this AM.

Extreme Partisan Gaps in Early Voting Emerge This Year

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321602...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 04:00 PM
Quote
I don't see them bubbling to the top.
I guess you would be one of the people who believed it would pivot and act presidential. I was one who said it is not in his DNA.

Quote
Occam's razor
William of Occam saw only a number of possibilities. He was not talking about a campaign which has admitted they have contacted states with the proposition. This is in the realm of reality and therefore not subject to The Razor.

Have you seen the nutty right wing? Rep Jordan, Gaetz, Meadows, Nunes, Gohmert, etc. What makes you believe they would not do ANYTHING to get Mr Trump elected??? Why we have senators Johnson, Grassley, and Graham using taxpayer money for opposition research with a federal government imprimateur. We have an AG who has politicized the DoJ to do opposition research. We have an occupant of the WH who has implicitly directed the FDA to authorize use of a vaccine before it is ready ... and you believe the Trump campaign is not above trying to steal an election.

ReallY?????
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 04:17 PM
Quote
a far out conspiracy theory
It is not a far out conspiracy theory when the campaign admitted they have contacted states with the idea.

The question is, whether these republican states have legislatures and a SoS willing to test the limits of their own state laws but the Constitution. I am betting these folks are so nutty the idea appeals to them.

You won't even consider the possibility but from a big picture perspective of who Trumpites are and how willing they are to do anything for Mr Trump, I will consider it.

Gov De Santis is so Trump-goofy I would bet he is more than willing to comply, along with his Republican legislature and SoS. Republicans have complained long and often about The Count. The RNC took it to the SC and won. Why would one think they would not simply shunt the process and simply send Trump electors?

Quote
On another site back in 2016 many Republicans were coming up with a bunch of same type of conspiracy theories about how Obama would stay in office for a third term.
Yes I remember. The difference is there was no basis for that conspiracy theory but there is one for this speculation.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 05:23 PM
Prof Tribe has weighed in on the question and said
Originally Posted by Lawrence Tribe
at least one possible reading [ed. Bush v Gore]requiring that disputes over the process of choosing electors be resolved strictly in terms of the directives laid down by the State Legislature, without resort to the State Constitution to change outcomes.
This is precisely the argument some Republicans and one in particular from the Federalist Society (are those guys conspiracy minded???) are promoting to battleground states with Republican controlled legislatures.

Much like the military, which trains soldiers BEFORE they go into battle, I was a Boy Scout and it's motto was .... be prepared.

Many folks have pooh poohed the idea Mr Trump may not leave the WH regardless of the outcome of the election. It is a question worth considering since there are no protocols which address the notion. If he decides not to leave, he may direct the military (Trump loyalists) to protect him and there is nothing anyone can do about it. What will the JC do? Bomb the WH? Breach the compound? Would that not be the very definition of a coup? etc. The result was the JC (and I hope you think these guys are serious people, not prone to conspiracy theories) actually considered the idea. Legal scholars considered the idea. Again serious people with some concerns.

Likewise I believe it is incumbent on people to consider the unimaginable in preparation of the possibility. I am not talking about the obvious court battles which will be used as a tactic, but the actual attempt of a theft of a general election.

Stranger than fiction .... steal an election in plain sight and people saying that can't happen and it does. I better write the screenplay before someone else does.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 05:27 PM
I sent my request for ballot 2 weeks ago and have not received it.

In Texas we may be faced with disenfranchisement from both the post office and Gov Abbott. They are trying to force me to mingle with all those maskless Trump supporters to vote. But how many will not vote????
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 09:00 PM
I received mine last week and mailed it off last week. Here's another item which I would be more worried about than any state legislature negating a states popular vote.

The country’s lost its mind': Polls warning of civil war, violence shows deep partisan chasm over election

https://www.yahoo.com/news/country-lost-mind-polls-warning-090029570.html

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 11:11 PM
Originally Posted by Greger
Occam's razor is my favorite paring knife.
I don't "get" Occam's razor. Is there a "Occam's Razor" for Dummies explanation?

Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 11:14 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
...the nutty right wing? Rep Jordan, Gaetz, Meadows, Nunes, Gohmert...
...and the thing is, the Republican Party isn't even embarrassed by these clowns. Hmm
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/07/20 11:15 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
a far out conspiracy theory
It is not a far out conspiracy theory when the campaign admitted they have contacted states with the idea.
The SCOTUS ruled on this last summer. The electors have to go with state law...state law generally goes with the popular vote.

Hmm
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 01:16 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
a far out conspiracy theory
It is not a far out conspiracy theory when the campaign admitted they have contacted states with the idea.
The SCOTUS ruled on this last summer. The electors have to go with state law...state law generally goes with the popular vote.

Hmm

26 states and D.C. have binding elector laws.

https://history.house.gov/Institution/Electoral-College/Electoral-College/#:~:text=The%20District%20of%20Columbia%20and,than%20for%20whom%20they%20pledged.

Also, so far no state has changed their law in awarding their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote. Although Maine and Nebraska utilize the congressional district method, their electoral votes are still awarded to the winner of the popular vote in their districts.

This is not to say you may not have several states where the election results are contested. Each side has a thousand lawyers ready to do the contesting if the state results is close enough or some shenanigans can be proved. Can you imagine six, seven 2000 Florida recounts going on at the same time?

Then you'll probably have 20 or more lawsuits over the ballots declared invalid for various reasons. It'll be interesting. If the recent YouGov poll is to be believed, half of all Americans will think whoever won was an illegitimate winner.

https://braverangels.org/yougov-poll/

It boils down to if your candidate wins, he legit as was the election. If your candidate loses, the winner is illegitimate as was the election.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 03:24 AM
Chiafalo v. Washington does not apply. That case was regarding "faithless" electors.

What the Trump campaign is proposing is for a state to declare a non-compliant election, which as they believe would allow a state to regain their authority to name electors to represent the "true" intention and will of the people.

Lawrence Tribe sees the possibility embedded in Bush v Gore.

This is entirely the reason Mr Trump wants Barrett confirmed to SC because the expectation is once a state has sent a certified list of Trump loyalist electors (not representing the vote but of the will of the state) to Congress there would be of necessary be many lawsuits filed. Republican thinking would be that confirmation of politically partisan Trump loyalists to the SC would ensure any lawsuit would be abrogated and thus Mr Trump would have stolen an election.

Obviously there are a lot of moving parts to this coup, but some of the pieces have been played and others are now being played, and there remains some for future implementation.

While this may not cause a blip on some radar, it has registered on some legal thinkers radar.

So the question is, would you bet your life if some state or states attempts this ploy and it ends up in the SC, that the SC would sustain a challenge? I would have bet the ranch in 2000 the SC would not intervene in a vote count. I will not make that mistake again.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 03:29 AM
I see you are still playing within the lines .... sorry but the Trump campaign is playing outside the box.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 12:33 PM
If you want to believe in all these way out conspiracy theories, be my guest. I seen the same type of conspiracy theories from Republicans on Obama not leaving office back in 2016 on another site. Perhaps this is the in thing these days.

I'd be more worried about a thousand lawyers contesting the state results than state legislature all of a sudden yanking the popular vote and reverting to the pre 1864 ways of having state legislatures award their electoral votes.

But each state have laws on the election that can be contested or the reasons one can contest election which each state laws vary. In most states in order for an election to be contested the results have to be within 0.5 to 1.0.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 12:36 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by Greger
Occam's razor is my favorite paring knife.
I don't "get" Occam's razor. Is there a "Occam's Razor" for Dummies explanation?

Hmm

Here ya go - https://www.britannica.com/topic/Occams-razor
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 12:40 PM
Perotista, good link there to the House explanation of the Electoral College, nice read.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 02:54 PM
I'm not worried about the electoral college, although I'll admit I'm a crusty olf retired Master Sergeant pretty much set in his way. To keep on my good side, don't ever interrupt my routine.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 02:55 PM
Here's another interesting read I just received from Gallup.

Confidence in Accuracy of U.S. Election Matches Record Low

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321665...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 05:55 PM
Politics like battle is a highly fluid situation

Trump .... box .... "Liberate Michigan" .... Michigan militia attempts overthrow of state government

"Please take your seat and fasten your seat belt. And also make sure your seat back and folding trays are in their full upright position." We are in for the ride of our lifetime. Will the institutions strengthened as a result of a civil war be dashed asunder by a rogue narcissist and his complicit political party or will we reach safe harbor. I say, put on your dancing shoes ... we may have to make some deft moves to weather this storm.

so .... How is your routine????
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 05:58 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Politics like battle is a highly fluid situation

Trump .... box .... "Liberate Michigan" .... Michigan militia attempts overthrow of state government

"Please take your seat and fasten your seat belt. And also make sure your seat back and folding trays are in their full upright position." We are in for the ride of our lifetime. Will the institutions strengthened as a result of a civil war be dashed asunder by a rogue narcissist and his complicit political party or will we reach safe harbor. I say, put on your dancing shoes ... we may have to make some deft moves to weather this storm.

so .... How is your routine????

As the man who jumped off the a 20 story building was heard to say around the 10th floor, "So far, so good."
I see Trump's "roid rage" is now claiming: "I could have done it without drugs!"

The man is clearly delusional.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/08/20 08:12 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by Greger
Occam's razor is my favorite paring knife.
I don't "get" Occam's razor. Is there a "Occam's Razor" for Dummies explanation?

Hmm

Occam's Razor states that the simplest answer is usually the right one.

Thus...Trump will probably be soundly defeated, he won't be able to change the results of the election, he won't be awarded a third term. The transfer of power will be peaceful if not amiable. Trump will NOT attend the inauguration, nor will he go to jail.

I enjoy speculation and hyperbole as much as anybody else, but this has been a really sh*tty year and come November one side of the political spectrum is going to be happy and the other is going to be sad.

There's a better than 50% chance it's gonna break our way. I'm going to cling to that for my very sanity.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/09/20 03:44 AM
interesting

The result of a man falling 20 stories is .... splat!!!!

The result of a well prepared man with dancing shoes on (and having a sky-chute open) falling 20 stories is ... a soft landing.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/09/20 09:23 PM
Violence anyone?

"Americans Increasingly Believe Violence is Justified if the Other Side Wins"

To the question of: How much do you feel it is justified for [your party] to use violence in advancing political goals? (Options: “Never” justified, “a little”, “a moderate amount”, “a lot” and “a great deal.”)

33% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans answered, yes, violence is justified.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/01/political-violence-424157

Interesting times we live in.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 02:28 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Violence anyone?

"Americans Increasingly Believe Violence is Justified if the Other Side Wins"
Sounds like something the side with all of the guns says. coffee

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 03:55 AM
Believers in real democracy and real believers in anarchy

perhaps
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 08:07 AM
I don't know. All I do know is the old political era of when both major parties knew that both wanted a secure, free and prosperous America, only the paths of getting there were different is long gone. This modern era of divisiveness, polarization, mega, ultra, high partisanship has replaced it. Now each party truly believes the other party is out to destroy America.

Perhaps it's all this negative personal attacks that has been taking place since at least the 1990's. Making the other side look like the devil reincarnated. Now the partisans of both sides really believe the other side is pure evil and it seems will do anything and everything to prevent the other side from winning or gaining power to include the use of violence. It's the times we live in I suppose.

Our elections aren't about substance anyone, not about ideas, possible solutions to our problems, about a vision of the future. It's 100% negative personal attacks. Then the party folks come to believe every single negative personal attack against the other guy, against the other party and hate begins to build. It's only reasonable violence will follow.

How much, I suppose we'll find out after the election.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 12:54 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
...Perhaps it's all this negative personal attacks that has been taking place since at least the 1990's...
What happened in the 1990s that could have contributed to all of this? Oh yeah...Newt Gingrich. Then you had Karl Rove in the 2000s. Now Mitch McConnell in the 2010s-2020s mad
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 03:53 PM
If you think only Republicans resort to the personal negative attacks, you're completely wrong.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 04:28 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
If you think only Republicans resort to the personal negative attacks, you're completely wrong.

I answered your question:

Originally Posted by perotista
...Perhaps it's all this negative personal attacks that has been taking place since at least the 1990's...

Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
...Perhaps it's all this negative personal attacks that has been taking place since at least the 1990's...
What happened in the 1990s that could have contributed to all of this? Oh yeah...Newt Gingrich...

You're welcome. smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 04:38 PM


The NPR Electoral College Map for 2020 seems to be tracking Real Clear Politics recent polling. Even without the yellow "toss-ups," Joe is at 290. Only 270 needed to win the EC. Any yellow additions will only add to Trump's humiliating defeat.


smile



[Linked Image from uploads.disquscdn.com]
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 05:02 PM
I have newfound respect for Twitter!

Steve Schmidt burns Trump at the stake...
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 05:06 PM
So as I wrote a list to contrast what VP Biden says about Mr Trump versus what Mr Trump says about VP Biden I see a completely different story.

So maybe I don't know what you mean by "personal negative attack"

Mr Trump routinely uses personal attacks against everyone who doesn't bow down to him. Now I know VP Biden said Mr Trump was a "clown". Yeah well I disagree with that. He should have said he was a buffoon ... o because he is actually a buffoon, so it is not a personal attack.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/10/20 10:18 PM
I really wasn't referring to individual attacking each other personally. During my Braves games, I got a ton of senate political ads for both races by all the candidates. Those ads were straight out of the septic tank. Raunchy, nasty, dirty, foul smelling, shitty and more. It made me not want to vote for any of the major party candidates, since all running are basically the scum of the earth, no the scum of the universe. Third party is always a choice.

I also seen some pretty nasty TV ads from both Trump and Biden, at least their campaigns. Georgia is in play this year, so we're getting a ton of these negative personal attack ads from all over the scope.

If one believed but a tenth of what is being said about all the candidates, one would never vote for a major party candidate, ever.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/11/20 12:47 AM
Of course you watch different tv than I do, so I have not seen these ads of which you speak. I see the Lincoln Project ads and Trump campaign ads. Of these the Trump campaign ads misrepresent the truth or the facts while the Lincoln ads are the words from the mouth of the babe.

For the local Texas crowd, all the ads I have seen (D and R) are issue oriented.

It appears Mr Trump likes calling Democrats Marxists or some such nonsense. I spent about 2 hours with a Trump supporter this afternoon who made some of the most outrageous claims about Democrats .... commies, socialists, anti-religion, baby killing, Clinton's spawn of satan etc. He was so full of disinformation, all of which would have been easy to rebut, especially the logical contradictions .... I mean can you imagine believing something is both true and false at same time?

Anyway the only thing I see is the constant barrage of lies coming from Mr Trump versus the occasional vagrant lie coming from VP Biden.

O yeah she is nasty nasty commie .... i wonder if that is code for being black????
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/11/20 12:39 PM
I've seen darn few political ads on Trump and Biden. Almost all are on the senate races, both the regular and the special. Nasty doesn't describe the ads. The Trump and Biden ads, the very few I seen, have been tame and for the most part I'd say within bounds.

If I hadn't sent in my mail in ballot about a week and a half ago, I'd be voting third party in both senate races. None of they qualify according to the TV ads.

It's like both major parties are giving you a choice between Attila the Hun and Genghis Khan. Even those two come off looking like Mother Teresa vs what is being said about all the senate candidates.

Perhaps the difference is on the presidential ads, either Biden or Trump have to say at the end that they approved of this message. That isn't the case with our two senate races.
Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/11/20 12:46 PM
perotista, like the rest of us, you know that ads are propaganda. Why base any decision on anything an ad presents, do your research and decide off of that information. I have yet to see any US third party candidate that had any viability and I voted for Ross Perot back in the day.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/11/20 02:20 PM
As a note regarding thoughts on Mr Trump refusing to leave WH, we have the case of the Dir of Bureau of Land Management, Pendley, refusing to leave job as directed by the courts, saying Mr Trump supports him in his job.

If this is not eye opening for the possibilities of a Republican assault on our democracy, I don't know what is .... other than complete regime change.

I suspect there is a whole bevy of these ultra conservative Republicans (Rep Jordan, Gaetz, Meadows, Gohmert in fact most Texas rep's, Sen Johnson, Lee etc) who would welcome the destruction of our form of government and a replacement with a fascist one.

These guys believe they are above the law .... so saith the Congressional and Judicial Records.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/11/20 06:09 PM
I think you'd see at least a couple of positive ads from the candidates themselves. Like this is where I want to lead Georgia, this is my idea to solve these problems, this is what I want to do if elected. That's not the case. It's my opponent is the worst scumbag on the face of the earth. You vote for him, everyone in Georgia will face the firing squad or be placed in concentration camps. If any had said that, that would be tame for what they're saying about each other.

If political ads had to be given a rating, XXX would do nicely. You know all of it is down right lies, propaganda lies that would make Joseph Goebbels proud. In fact Goebbels wouldn't go that far with his NAZI propaganda lies. Goebbels would have more scruples. None of them deserve to be elected in my opinion.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/11/20 08:36 PM
Quote
These guys believe they are above the law
And for a while, they'll get away with it.

And then they won't.

There's going to be a reckoning...of some sort...far be it from me to predict what it's liable to be.

The people will speak soon.

If there be gods...so will they too.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/12/20 12:40 AM
you must be writing about Mr Trump's ads. Apparently if VP Biden wins we will enter the {{{{{END TIMES}}}}}. Of course all those evangelical Christians should love that .... wait a sec ... how come they are not for VP Biden ... they have been pushing getting Israel ready ... are they just a bunch of hypocrites ... so why are they supporting Mr Trump????
I think it's like Saint Augustine's famous prayer: "Lord, make me chaste—but not yet." They will be ready to give up their worldly treasures and vices on their deathbeds. Remember: "The meek shall inherit the Earth, once it's not worth having."
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/12/20 02:26 PM
270ToWin currently has Biden's base support at 290 electoral votes, with a likely ceiling of 335. The problem is that the States he is most likely to carry are not States that are likely to report results on election night. That gives Trump the opportunity to sow doubt in the days between election night and December, when the votes are officially tallied. They already have lawsuits going in most of the swing States, and many others, and have 3000 lawyers in their pocket ready to gum up the works.

How Trump Court Spark A Full-Blown Election Crisis (538, Video)

The real savior of the country could be Florida, if Biden wins it. Florida, as a result of 2000, has mechanism in place to count votes quickly. Biden is actually leading among seniors there, so it is possible that he pulls it out. That would make his victory nearly impossible to deny.

The fly in the ointment on election night is "exit polling". In a typical election year news agencies rely heavily on exit polling to "call" races. Unfortunately, with heavy early/absentee voting - where Biden leads by 2-1 margin - and Trump's same-day voter polling advantage - where Republicans are more likely to vote by a 2-1 margin - there is likely to be a genuine disconnect between exit polls and actual votes. That means a lot of States will not be "called" on election night. If that transpires, we are likely in a world of hurt.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/12/20 03:14 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
As a note regarding thoughts on Mr Trump refusing to leave WH, we have the case of the Dir of Bureau of Land Management, Pendley, refusing to leave job as directed by the courts, saying Mr Trump supports him in his job.

If this is not eye opening for the possibilities of a Republican assault on our democracy, I don't know what is .... other than complete regime change.

I suspect there is a whole bevy of these ultra conservative Republicans (Rep Jordan, Gaetz, Meadows, Gohmert in fact most Texas rep's, Sen Johnson, Lee etc) who would welcome the destruction of our form of government and a replacement with a fascist one.

These guys believe they are above the law .... so saith the Congressional and Judicial Records.
I've been watching the BLM situation too - it is a microcosm of the entire Trump administration's abuse of processes, and ignoring of law and the Constitution. God, I am so looking forward to the end of this nightmare.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/12/20 07:18 PM
Quote
That would make his victory nearly impossible to deny.
Sorry but it would be delusional, thinking Mr Trump would act rationally. One doesn't have 3000 attorneys on standby for just some unknown reason. The foundation of his probable denial of election results if he loses has been laid down. If he loses FL by a landslide .... well that is simply an example of Democrat cheating .... rigging an election .... etc, and should be invalidated by a bevy of attorneys who have been hired just for that reason.

Mr Trump believes he should win all the states he previously won, so if he loses any of those states he will send an army of attorneys to file injunctions to invalidate the results. I would bet on this.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/12/20 07:21 PM
O and it gets worse.

It would appear some factions of the CA GOP have been putting illegal voting drop boxes in some counties and then claimed they are doing it to help people.

For those who refuse to think or believe Republicans would not stop at anything to win an election. Imagine .... that is a lowly group in CA .... what about the big boys in the Trump campaign .... what would they be willing to do for their dear leader
In the case of Pendley running the Bureau of Land Management, the court also said that every decision he has taken part in has to be set aside. So he can sit in his office for a few more months if he wants. He just can't actually be involved in running the BLM and his legacy there is demolished.

Another case where Trump's "cutting the red tape" actually violates the law and is nullified.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/12/20 10:29 PM
and what makes you think he or Mr Trump cares what the court says. He is using the office ... he ain't leaving ...and guess what .... no one can make him leave.

Should I mention Mr Trump at this point? Trump - Pendley .... anyone???
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/13/20 04:08 AM

Former political consultant and lobbyist Rick Gates who pleaded guilty to conspiracy against the United States and making false statements in the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections, and longtime business associate of Paul Manafort, served as deputy to Manafort when the latter was campaign manager Trump's presidential campaign in 2016, stated on PBS News Hour MO 10/12/20 that Trump will win the election because of the Trump Effect - a phenomena that some Trump voters who intend to vote for for Trump would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for Joe Biden

This effect is actually named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley called the Bradley Effect. Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections. As with all things Trump, Trump is known to steal other people's things and make them his own. But I digress.




Some good economic predictions for the coming years:
Stock Market Does Better Under Democratic Administrations

Quote
Analysis by CFRA Research found that since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 11.2% when Democrats controlled the White House, versus an average 6.9% gain under Republicans.

A study by Liberum, a U.K.-based investment bank, found similar results. The firm examined stock market and gross domestic product data going back to 1947, when official GDP calculations were introduced. It found that since 1947, the S&P 500 experienced an annual return of 10.8% under Democratic presidents, versus 5.6% under Republican presidents. The average annual U.S. GDP growth rate was 3.6% under Democrats and 2.6% under Republicans.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/13/20 11:13 PM
no one believes it
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/15/20 03:09 AM
It appears on video some evangelical Christians will be ballot harvesting in WHITE churches and Hispanic and Asian churches.

hmmm ... Christians? .... o yeah now I remember .... Jesus in the sermon on the Mount said to lie, cheat, and steal from your enemies. Good to know what Christians are up to .... hmmm ... wait a sec .... isn't that Judge Amy Barrett in some fringe Christian org??? gee I wonder what her agenda is? .... lie cheat and steal????
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/15/20 03:27 PM
So I am only aware of Republican plans to cheat/steal election but Tom Fitton has been recorded at a conservative confab saying Democrats have been gaming a plan to stop the vote count until inauguration day and force Spk Pelosi to become president.

So I am asking all you Democrats out there to let me in on this plot.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/15/20 05:06 PM
Since I'm an independent I'm not privy to inside Democratic plans to steal the election....
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/15/20 05:50 PM
o come on Dems .... if Tom Fitton knows of your plans, I think everyone should know about them

Now, how are ya going to put Rep Pelosi in the WH???
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/15/20 07:54 PM
Quote
how are ya going to put Rep Pelosi in the WH???
Trump can steal the Presidential election but he can't affect house and senate races. So the Senate flips, they impeach Trump and Pence, then seat Pelosi as Prez...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/16/20 03:01 AM
All the hystrionics and grandstanding from the blue check crowd. It’s as though the Iowa caucus never happened. Limiting voting booths in poor neighborhoods or reducing the numbers on college campuses, etc.

Now comes the righteous anger and angst about the general. What’s the saying?
Democrats steal primaries while Republicans steal the general? Gawd, this play gets old with this corrupt two faction Weimar gerontocracy we pretend is a democracy

Democrats would have to win almost every single Senate seat now held by a Republican to have enough Senate votes to remove impeached President Trump and his VP. That voting requirement is not a Senate rule, it's in the Constitution. The odds of that happening are infinitesimal.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/16/20 12:56 PM
If you look at the logic of Mr. Market, wouldn’t Trump not be so bad in terms of the fund raising grift of Democrats?
Similar to the “It may not be good for America but It’s damn good for CBS (Democrats)” kind of logic? The fund raised capital and blue check conspiracy broadcast ratings would give evidence that Trump has been very good to the Democratic Party.
Trump also governs like a traditional republican from an economic sense so theirs not much to be opposed to by Democrats from a legislative sense.
With the exception of cultural differences to be annoyed about, I see the Trump administration as a windfall for the liberals. The fact that they’re running an empty campaign except for a restoration of ‘norms and values’ makes me think they’re not so ideologically split with trump on more important economic issues as they would have voters believe.
Culture wars are cheap, offering resources and provisioning to people is hard. Unless your a bank or military industry etc.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/17/20 02:54 PM
I don't know much about markets. But I do know a lot of the regular big, mega Republican donors haven't given Trump a red cent. They don't like him. Whether this is due to his obnoxious personality and childish antics or how he handles the market issues, I think of the trade war with China, I don't know.

I think it may be a combination of factors. His foreign policy isn't what the moneyed folks were looking for. The money raised so far, Trump 680 million to Biden's 730 million. Although I haven't the faintest idea how each has handled and spent their moneyed assets.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race

One thing for sure, the money race is much more even this year than in 2016 where Hillary almost doubled Trump, 1.191 billion to 646.8 million.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

If I've been reading the polls correctly, it seems 90% of the electorate have had their minds made up who'll they vote for way back in May and haven't deviated much from that. So money may be irrelevant at this point with a bit over two weeks to go. We'll see.



Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/17/20 09:13 PM
Quote
mega Republican donors haven't given Trump a red cent
Sheldon Adelson just gave some Trump PAC $75M. I guess Trump reminded him how Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and got some arab states to normalize relations with Israel. Add the inherent fact Palestine was frakked in the deal and That is how much $75M is worth.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/18/20 05:25 PM
So Between the two candidates, there's less than 10% that separates them?
Looks fairly evenly split to me on this surface pass. I suppose there might be more to say drilling deeper into individual donations and average size but I can't be bothered to read the entrails as there doesn't seem to be much difference between these two men except their style of corruption, hubris and greed.

This run up to the election has the same atmosphere as the run up to the Iraq invasion. It has the same surreal hypernormalization of reality that those earlier naked imperial days had. Fantastic myths talked about in place of any reality that could pass the sniff test but everyone resigned to the outcome.

So one side thinks Trump is a genius businessman that's been kicking butt and taking names as well as fighting sexual preverts in underground tunnels where the adolescent sex slaves are held.

Meanwhile Libs are self-flagellating in front of the altar of the security state for protection from the preternatural social media manipulations of the red Ivans lest the country be turned into Putin Manchurian candidates.

There has been some attempts to talk about what happened in 2016 in a more detailed reality driven way. Bob Urie published a good piece in Counterpunch recently that distilled down much of whats been discussed in more critical venues than infotainment media:

"The question of elections is typically answered through demographic analyses of the people who voted. This view assumes that not voting by people who are eligible is either immaterial, or that the implied politics is irrelevant or indeterminate. Additionally, given the income and wealth skew amongst those who vote, the contention that the rich elected this candidate or that implies inclusive representation of the polity that simply isn’t the case. These are more than abstractions. As is illustrated below, voters who didn’t vote in 2016, or who switched from one party to another in ways that are inexplicable within the official view, had a large impact on the outcome."

Who elected Donald Trump

A good perspective bringing receipts, IMO.

Most of that 100 million strong voting bloc gets dismissed in various ways in Liberal oriented media. Derisive dismissal or misdirection seems most common to me.

The Sanders campaigns "theory of change' strategy failed to tap that enormous pool of voters. It's a shame really as that lane will be left for the far right to make inroads into. The Liberal class seems unwilling to try for it as FDR could and did. That would inconvenience their world view on the way to brunch I guess.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/18/20 08:34 PM

I don't dwell much into demographics when they're included in the three major groups. Republicans, democrats and independents. All demographics are covered there, they're included in just those three groups of voters without have to do a ton of delving into it.

I have a simple formula to figure out the popular vote, 90% of republicans will vote for Trump, 90% of democrats for Biden. That's the historical average of how those who affiliate or identify themselves with the two major parties.

Independents is a bit tougher, I take 75% of independents lean Republican as voting for Trump, 75% of independents that lean Democratic as voting for Biden. That leaves just the pure or true independents with no leans which is anyone guess. As of 28 sep, Gallup had the numbers of 42% of independents lean Republican, 48% lean Democratic with but 10% with no leans. With the above figures one can come up with a good approximation of the vote totals. But Gallup party affiliation figures are old. But they do give me a good indication that Biden will win the independent vote this go around. Hillary lost independents in 2016.

Being the Democratic party is still the larger party, winning the independents also, Biden should win fairly easily, by 7-8 points, perhaps 10.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/18/20 11:41 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
...I take 75% of independents lean Republican as voting for Trump, 75% of independents that lean Democratic as voting for Biden. That leaves just the pure or true independents with no leans which is anyone guess....
I wasn't homeschooled as most of you Righties are, but 75 + 75 = 150. That's over 100 according to my public education. Hmm
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 03:36 AM
You're reading it wrong.

There are 3 groups of independents, Republican leaning, Democrat leaning, and unaffiliated. Of the Republican leaning group 75% will vote for Mr Trump. Of the Democrat leaning 75% of those will vote for VP Biden.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 04:51 AM

That's a nice hypothetic, but doesn't mean much unless you know what 100% of independent-Republican/Democrat numbers are. Hmm
Not really: Perotista's premise is that Independents could go 50% for Biden and 50% for Trump, and Biden would win because there are more Democrats than Republicans. Trump has to win more than half the Independents to win the election.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 08:45 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
I don't dwell much into demographics when they're included in the three major groups. Republicans, democrats and independents. All demographics are covered there, they're included in just those three groups of voters without have to do a ton of delving into it.

I have a simple formula to figure out the popular vote, 90% of republicans will vote for Trump, 90% of democrats for Biden. That's the historical average of how those who affiliate or identify themselves with the two major parties.

The largest group are those that don’t vote. Be they Dem, Repub or Indie. One wonders how much less participation will happen before it’s clear to everyone that this is ritual farce dressed up as democracy. At some point we resemble late stage imperial Rome with a couple dozen patrician families taking turns at controlling the state. You could make the case that we are already there.
I’d argue your simple formula has no context either. How would it explain Iowa in the primaries? Nor does it illustrate the suppressive effects of denying a winner coming out of that contest in terms of a bump in polling and media attention. Likewise, simple polling doesn’t give you a clue to what effect the widespread voter suppression efforts, that both political factions are employing, will have in the outcome of the vote totals.

I guess it has the benefit of being a simple way to predict which runt majority may win. Doesn’t say much about how.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 09:40 AM
Side note from the outside world.
Looks like MAS took the Bolivian election with large majorities over the U.S. backed coup government.
Pity the people ofBolivia for not choosing the right party. Having rich mineral deposits under their feet is just waving a red flag at a fascist bull. U.S. military intelligence will be cranking up on them soon if history is a guide.
Who knows though. The U.S. Deep state has not been putting up the numbers like they used to and the Bolivian election may stick. More so under a possible future Trump administration than a Biden, IMO.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 12:39 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
...I take 75% of independents lean Republican as voting for Trump, 75% of independents that lean Democratic as voting for Biden. That leaves just the pure or true independents with no leans which is anyone guess....
I wasn't homeschooled as most of you Righties are, but 75 + 75 = 150. That's over 100 according to my public education. Hmm

Okay, didn't follow me huh? What I said and if not meant which confused you which at times saying and meaning are two different things is 75% of independents who lean Democratic will vote for Biden, 75% of independents who lean republican will vote for Trump, pure and true independents are very hard to figure or predict.

Using Gallup's latest figures, Independents who lean Democrat make up 47% of independents as of 28 Sep which approximately 75% will vote for Biden based on historical norms. Independents who lean Republican make up 40% of independents which around 75% will vote for Trump, again based on an historical average. That leaves 13% of independents I classify as true or pure independents with no leans. There is no historical standard to go by with these purist or no lean independents. They vary and swing radically for no apparent reason.

FYI, according to the 28 Sep Gallup figures, independents now make up 42% of the electorate as both major parties affiliation has fallen below 30% That means Republicans are below 30% at 27% of the electorate and democrats are below 40% at 29%.

That's quite a fall for the Democrats. The Republicans have averaged 27% of the electorate since IKE. Being as low as 21% and as high as 31%. The Democrats dropped from an average of 45% of the electorate, Truman until Reagan, then 35% from Reagan until Obama and now for the first time have dropped below 30%. The Democrats high was 51% in both 1961 and 1965. They low 29%, today.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 12:44 PM
Another reason why I think Biden will be a easy winner. I was one who rejected both Trump and Clinton and have already voted for Biden.

"Why These Voters Rejected Hillary Clinton but Are Backing Joe Biden"

https://news.yahoo.com/why-voters-rejected-hillary-clinton-172223473.html
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 01:09 PM
"Interviews with dozens of voters, union members and Democratic strategists reveal a party embracing Biden — a 77-year-old white man — as a familiar political pitch, though some bristled at what they saw as the gender bias in that assessment."

What a hard nosed, clear eyed burrowing into the "numbers"...

Insiders talking to one another while avoiding reality. Then this gem-

"Internal polling conducted for the Bernie Sanders campaign found that Biden had a reservoir of goodwill that Clinton did not possess.

“He was a hard guy to hit,” said Ben Tulchin, Sanders’ pollster. “There’s not a lot of passion for him, but they like him.”

Anyone associated with Our Revolution was screaming at Sanders to attack Biden on his literal record. Sanders demurred and the rank and file had to brace for impact.

A good deal wanted the neoliberal Faiz Shakir gone and get into the brawl with Biden that never came. What can you say. Sanders didn't have it in him. But 'Hard to Hit'..

That's pure propaganda.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 01:24 PM
Racist crime bill resulting in mass incarceration of minorities and exploding the prison population beyond any other country in %'s.

Bankruptcy laws denying citizenry the ability to go bankrupt and dismiss debt.

Backing reactionary conservative judges.

Backing republican congressional candidates over Democrats as recent as 2018.

Corruption and bribery as it pertains to his families dealings with foreign governments. (that one's bobbed to the surface again)

Voting to invade Iraq.

His VP's picks only debate highlight was when she went after him with her 'little girl' moment of Identity Politics.

Can't hit Biden?
The reality distortion field is strong whereas the will to go after him was weak. 'Why?' would be interesting to figure out.

What could possibly be backing him from the drive thru state of Delaware?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 04:10 PM
I consider myself a political realist. Although that can be debated. The fact is first one must win an election. All the idealistic ideology, wants, policy means nothing if you don't win. Nothing will can accomplished by a loser of an election.

I agree that Biden has a lot of goodwill, from both Democrats, quite a lot of independents and a few Republicans that Hillary didn't. Biden is just plain disliked a whole lot less than Hillary was. Especially by independents. Biden was a safe choice to defeat Trump. He'll most likely win by somewhere between 6-10 points in the popular vote. Between 340-360 in the electoral college.

Perhaps more important if Biden approaches the 10 point margin of victory, he could or his coat tails could bring along a decent margin in the senate. My recent takes on the senate.

Fairly safe bets switching parties
Alabama to the Republicans
Arizona to the democrats
Colorado to the democrats

Likely to switch parties
Iowa to the democrats
Maine to the democrats
North Carolina to the democrats

Tossups
Georgia 1
Georgia 2
Kansas
Montana
South Carolina

All are held by Republicans with the exception of Alabama. As of today I see a net gain for the Democrats between 4 to as many 9. A lot depends on how long Biden's coat tails are. But take a good look at the tossups, all 5 should be safe Republicans. I think the above reflects more on Trump than on the GOP incumbents or candidates for the senate. So far Trump's poor showing in the presidential race has had a filter down effect. This election is all about Trump which includes the senate.

As a political realist and sometimes strategist, I say ideology be darned, just win first and the rest will begin to fall into place.



Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 05:29 PM
Doesn't matter. Trump supporters believe Democrats were born from the loins of Satan and are baby eating pedophiles, intent on destroying Christianity and turning America into a Socialist haven.

Try working with people who are delusional ...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 05:31 PM
I guess we would have to understand what 'winning' means. It would not be a win to have Biden as president for me but may be for others.

If all that concerns some is to get the bad man to go away and have no real problems that only a state can solve then, yeah, Biden's that persons guy.

If you do have real problems that only a state can solve, such a getting healthcare, then no, Biden's not your guy.

The latter has no real way of winning and no interest in the outcome. Winning is a moot point and the focus, if any, has to shift elsewhere.

That brings you back to the very real question of how to win and going forward. Looking at polls is like looking at the stock market as Buffet describes it. In the short term, it's a popularity contest. In the long run its a weighing machine. I won't vote for either of these parties as there is to much on offer and plenty against.

For some, several decades of economic and civil regression under the two political right wing factions precludes any winning. It's all improvisation while descending the retrograde political economy for now.



Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 07:43 PM
Would it be a win for you to continue on with 4 more years of Trump? Here in America to win an election you have to do better than your opponent. If you don't win an election you have no way to influence the future.

But what is a win for you? To be able to make every single citizen 100% reliant on government? Or is it to lose if you can't take gigantic leaps in the direction you want government to go whether than a few little steps at a time. What happens if you do take a gigantic leap, I think you just need to look back at the house election of 2010. Fact is one needs to be able to take the people as far as they're willing to go and no further until they're willing to go further.

I think sometimes keeping the status quo is a win, if a loss means taking steps backwards that has to be gain back again. It's like 1st and 10 in a football game, you get stopped at the line of scrimmage for no gain. That's better than having your quarterback sacked for a 15 yard loss. You begin the next play or perhaps the next election at 2nd and 10 instead of 2nd and 25. You were much better off with the status quo, no gain, no loss than with the 25 yard sack. Barring a fumble or an interception, you can't score on defense or losing an election.

This is the political realist talking, the turtle in a long distant run instead of the hare in a sprint who tires out and sits besides the road. Biden better than Trump, a win. Trump is gone, a win. What Biden and company will do after he wins, that's an open question. But I'd much rather have Biden fulfilling those open questions than Trump. So the election of Biden is a win in my book.

Of course there is always a third option here. Vote third party.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 08:45 PM
Winning would be not what we have had for a political economy for decades now.

Spare me the 100% reliant on government stuff. If you want to discuss how resources get divided between both political parties and how they could be different then I'm down with that conversation. Capitalism is 100% supported by government. No one in either party cares to address that reality or insinuates a morality to it.

Keeping people bare arse broke over medical debt while racially targeting other areas of the world with weapons systems for no reasonable purpose except making money would be where I would start that conversation. Propping up the MIC by maintaining forever wars for stock market returns seems to be a path towards fascism we are heading down. Trump has paused that progression. I see that progress restarted under Biden. Where would the win be with either of those two candidates with this state funded violence?

Remember when the liberals rolled their eyes and belittled the 2 trillion price tag over 10 years to do health care in the country, during the primary? AKA Medicare for all? What Joe Biden had pledged to Veto if it should get near his desk as president?

Not so much as a whimper throwing out 5 trillion dollars from a helicopter over the Hamptons to make several thousand families whole during a predictable pandemic. Sound like a rational distribution of resources? Backstopping Exchange Traded Fantasy Football Funds and Taking all the bad loans off the mega banks books? Again?

But yeah, making people reliant on gubmint? Heavens!

No, there's no upside to a restoration of murderous neoliberalism or neoconservative. You could even make the argument that, much like you need a democrat to deregulate finance and media or criminalize poverty, your going to need a republican to pass some kind of humane, rational health care system or end the ethnic murder abroad bythe MIC. I would not rule out the possibility of Trump doing that. That's what helped get him elected IIRC.

Come back in about 30 years, and maybe there might be a chance for a majority of the American people to get to your point of view. They are nowhere near it now.

We have had almost four years of lawless autocratic rule, and most people want to go back to being a nation of laws. You may not like some of those laws, but at least there is a procedure for changing them and people in charge who follow them.

If you want change, I think a Democratic government permits that. We know from recent experience that a Republican government resists that every way possible, including murdering opponents.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/19/20 10:17 PM
Would you please share with us any example of you, PIA, suffering under autocratic rule? I would be curious to know what you think autocratic rule is.

If there has been lawlessness what was it that is distinct from previous Dem administrations?

There was lawlessness within the DNC during both primaries but I never heard a peep from Liberals. Wassup with that?

Obama killed U.S. citizens without trial... Crickets.

Your boy Biden passed him some laws. What a money maker those laws have been for some...

Liberals sense of indignation over legal transgressions are variable at best.

The popular will of citizens have had almost no effect over what laws get passed in this country for some time. For your future reference, it's the donors who craft laws, not voters.

Ballot initiatives may make it thru but that, too, is no guaranty the will of voters will be carried out in good faith by legislatures. Florida's felon voter right recently undermined is a handy example.

Sorry, not buying your imagined change within the two party structure. Change will only come from outside,IMO.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 12:00 AM
I agree with PIA estimated 30 years. Fact is most folks don't like to be taken out of their comfort zone with rapid change. They're fine with slow steady change, but not gigantic leaps. Slow steady change gives them time to adjust.

2010 proved that up seating the apple cart with rapid change to the health care system. The majority of people weren't ready for it. It taken 10 years for some to adjust and now, barely, just a bit over 50% now approve instead of oppose it. But now after 10 years they had a chance to adjust to it. Now it's here to stay unless we get another rapid change which once again upsets the apple cart by taking folks once again out of their comfort zone.

Biden will win because he's seen as a candidate who will not force folks out of their comfort zone. No rapid or instant change in other words. Change, slow and steady will always win the day or at least give those who want the change more time to accomplish it.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 02:21 AM
Medicare has popular support. More since Covid hit. Your slow and steady rational is a bit of projecting, I’m guessing. It may feel comfortable to your sensibilities but I would point out that Trumps insurgency campaign was neither slow nor steady yet won anyhow. He understood some truths that the complacent class was and still is unwilling to recognize.

History is littered with sudden fits and upheavals. I like your relaxed confidence Perisota. It would be more convincing to me if I was not paying attention to the world around me and accepting where it is.

Democrats scuttled a way out in the primaries. The addled Biden, having authored so much of our current situation, will not solve the current and enormous problems. I guess we’ll see how it goes, a boomer interregnum period where their golden years go undisturbed? Possible, but there’s a lot of tinder out there with 40 years of neoliberal asset stripping and austerity. I don’t see the current operating system going another thirty without crashing first.

Massive overleveraging in the financial sector. High levels of personal debt. Widening income inequality, growing poverty and deaths of despair. The needles have been going into the red.








Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 04:33 AM
Quote
Massive overleveraging in the financial sector. High levels of personal debt. Widening income inequality, growing poverty and deaths of despair. The needles have been going into the red.

And that right there is why I'm selling out and downsizing right now.

Check your facebook Chunks, I need to pick your brain about my kitchen.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 01:45 PM
Quote
The addled Biden ... will not solve the current and enormous problems.

The addled Biden does not have to develop a solution for our problems all by himself. He has to find excellent advisors who CAN create and design possible solutions which would solve our problems. All the addled Biden has to do is make the decision to implement what he believes or his advisors believe is the best solution.

While an occupant of the WH has a set of personal beliefs which guide him, his primary function in our government is to make those hard decisions at 9AM or 2PM or 3AM.

Mr Trump has been feckless depending on FOX news commentators for his information. Let;s hops if VP Biden is elected he would select a better, higher quality coterie of people more interested in America than themselves.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 01:48 PM
Quote
Biden will win because he's seen as a candidate who will not force folks out of their comfort zone.
Could be the converse argument for why Mr Trump won .... he allowed his supporters to be emboldened in their lost, mostly aggrieved comfort zone.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 02:07 PM
Just read 538;s prediction/polling.

I see a stone carver has entered the room with tools in hand. I see no affect on his face.

I may have to wait for Brünnhilde to announce the winner!!!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 02:41 PM
What, in this garbage barge of a human's political record, makes you think Biden would implement any of the imbalances he personally helped create. He's a product of the finance industry. That's only going one way, IMO.

I assume your down with who he's stocking his pond with should he win? Who in that roster are you feeling good about? The rhetoric doesn't match the observable reality with Biden so the reality distortion field gets cranked up to 10. The rationalizations of the failure of the liberal class to halt the slow decline of our political economy can never be observed by them.

Unless he goes thru radical transformation, I view him as a place holder for something more radical. Harris maybe or a Tom Cotton type.

It was interesting watching Trump run a campaign in 2016 to the left of the Democrats in many ways. If he had repeated that against Biden I believe he would be in a much more secure position than today. Liberal media and the security state got in his head as well as his own dumb loud racist rich guy antics.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 03:01 PM
The majority of the people have to be ready to accept the solution to a problem proposed. Truman was the first to to propose Medicare on 5 Jan 1949. The people nor congress was ready for it then. JFK tried to get Medicare passed in 1962 and again in 1963, failed. It wasn't until 1965 that the public and congress was ready for it.

That is a span of 15 years. But it was accomplished.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 03:25 PM
You cant throw out dates, like poll numbers, to describe the circumstances without having the context that surrounds theose dates no?

Yeah, bill got passed on this date so subtracting that number from this one tells me how long it takes to pass a bill and we can draw a conclusion from that about the possibilities of today?

How much was the cost of healthcare then vs. now? How much personal debt was being handled? How was the wealth generated from the economy being shared?

Today's circumstances are today's and can't see how you can parallel an arbitrary time line of a bill's passage from the past to ascribe a future potential bills passage. If you want to limit the notion of what's possible or what's occurring to people presently then it may be used as a feint, I suppose. I'm not saying your doing that, Perosita, only that I've seen both political factions use this 'comparative' reasoning.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 03:33 PM
Also... Thery got the largest transfer of wealth passed this year where most of the benefits accrued to the top filers in lickity split time. I guess a white collar robbery ought to be done quickly with a get in get out mentality whereas provisioning citizens with healthcare at least during a global pandemic, if only temporarily as most every other country has done, should be slow walked for a few more decades for the benefit of....?

Same people we just showered 5 trillion dollars on would be my guess.

Quote
Would you please share with us any example of you, PIA, suffering under autocratic rule?

My mother is dead from Covid-19: I blame Trump's criminal use of a public health crisis as a tool for reelection, rather than as something the President of the United States needs to deal with responsibly. The Obama administration stopped NIH funding of the "gain of function" research at the Wuhan Virology lab, because they thought it was too dangerous. Trump turned the NIH grant back on because anything Obama did must be wrong.
Quote
If there has been lawlessness what was it that is distinct from previous Dem administrations?

Almost everything Trump has done. Lawsuits against his arbitrary actions keep being upheld by the courts. This has been very rare in previous administrations.

Quote
There was lawlessness within the DNC during both primaries but I never heard a peep from Liberals. Wassup with that?

Debatable: You are calling actions "crimes" just because you didn't like them. Nobody was ever charged with any crime, because there weren't any.

Quote
Obama killed U.S. citizens without trial
Yes, Americans engaged in treason who had taken up arms against America. When you are a member of an army fighting the US, you are an enemy combatant. It is perfectly reasonable for US forces to kill you.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 10:43 PM
My condolences to your family for the loss of your mother PIA. While I work to keep my mom safe, keeping her out of the grocery stores and running her errands, I fear I could bring it to her doorstep myself or have it slip in some other way.

But here's the rub. What's the difference between losing a loved one due to country club incompetence or the inability to afford the worlds highest healthcare costs due to political venality and free market fleecing?

While you hate Trumps inability to grapple in any effective way with a public health crises, being to distracted with his own narcissism and a white house staffed with multi level marketing grifters hoping to steal anything that's not nailed down, what do you think people who've lost loved ones due to medical treatment costs must feel to the liberals worship of free market ideology distributing healthcare?



According to latest studies, apx. 45K deaths/ year are due to unaffordability. It's no mystery who benefits from this arrangement with campaign donations. Your boy Biden's done well here. He's taken money from AHIP which fights against any meaningful public healthcare. So while you've taken a devastating personal hit I wonder at your support of an existing market system that kills 45K annually and a candidate who's is committed to that system.







Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/20/20 11:24 PM
Some background of the law suit brought against the Obama administration by Hedges against the very authoritarian DAA.

The same DAA that Liberals renewed for our so-called authoritarian president by the way. Odd that...



Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/21/20 10:16 AM


Condolences to the PIA family. frown
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/21/20 07:10 PM
My Takeaway from reading latest 538 predictions is, if you haven't voted ... vote now .... and if you have voted .... vote again

MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD!!!!!!
No, no, no: Please don't try to vote twice. I want to make sure the only people indicted for vote fraud are Trumpkins. Directing people to commit that felony is yet another charge for Trump's post inauguration day party.

Thank you all, for the condolences. The worst part was actually not being able to get in to say goodbye, because of the facility lockdown. My mom was actually on Kaiser Medicare Advantage with TriCare covering all copays being a widow of a guy who retired from the military.

My wife was on ACA with a 100% subsidy for the year before she went on Medicare. If not for some stupid Republican Governors, nobody in the US would suffer from health care they can't afford. Medicaid is free and available up to a certain income. ACA at 100% subsidy is supposed to start at just above that. It has sliding subsidies, so nobody should be unable to afford it. It does get expensive if you don't qualify for a subsidy, but those people make enough to pay for it.

People do decide they would rather have a new car than pay for it, but that's their choice and they are idiots. People in certain states do fall in the gap their governors left by not accepting Medicaid expansion, but that's their Governor's fault, not Joe Biden's.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/22/20 03:04 AM
All of my facetious "vote as many times as possible" comments are directed toward and inspired by the most stable genius I know ... and adore ... and sing paeans extolling his greatest ... and
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/22/20 01:04 PM
“The USA stands alone as the only high-income country not to provide health care as a human right, leaving almost 80 million of its citizens without adequate insurance.1, 2, 3 In a 2020 study, we found that securing quality health care for the entire country would save 68&#8200;000 lives and 1·73 million life-years annually.4“

Lanet

Medicare expansion is available only with means testing. You need to be at or below poverty level. Currently around 20k. Above that and you are exposed to high deductibles and co-pays making it horrendously expensive for average wages.
The flaw with liberalism is its market fealty and means testing that has produced the worlds most expensive healthcare industry with poor results.
Liberalism ideologically opposes ‘universal’ concepts. A belief in equal ‘opportunity’ with limited government assistance while opposed to equal outcomes is a core historical belief. Let’s be honest here. If you break down liberalism’s demographics, it has more to do with maintaining class distinctions than it does efficacy or rational resource distribution. Ie: liberal requirement for means testing to patrol and secure class boundaries. If 65k have to die to police those class divisions, liberals will shrug and point out the moral failings if it’s victims while ignoring the structural flaws of a system that kills thousands.




Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/22/20 06:46 PM
Liberalism - really?

I have been pounding the hell out of this one for years. If Biden does a clean sweep there is actually a chance. The question is, really, whether he has the backbone. Corona has, pretty much, proven that our healthcare is too expense and not up to doing the job. The problem is that there are so many people working on the edges of healthcare; insurance and private providers, the TV Industry to name a few and a LOT more than that). I remember when our system of healthcare created the auto industry in Canada - we just couldn't compete. Basically, there are a LOT of reasons we should change and there are a LOT of folks fighting like hell to leave it alone.

Its really quite interesting when you get to watch people literally sacrifice their well being and even their own lives to maintain a failed system. Obama, for instance, said, right out loud that he wanted to also have the 'option' and he couldn't even get that done when he owned the congress - EVERYBODY was against it! Remember our system of healthcare is something like 18% of our entire economy!

I know, everybody is concerned about healthcare. That, however, is exactly just how far it goes. Soon as words like "single payer", "tax supported", etc. arise the screams begin. Some how we need a national visit to our healthcare system and that hasn't happened yet!

Its really easy to blame this, or that, group but, in the case of our healthcare that isn't really going to fly. There has to be some kind of national effort to just explain it all! I find it very strange, for instance, when any of that is mentioned one of the first things mentioned is that auto workers could never give up their hard won healthcare!

The United States of America seem to be completely dedicated to screwing themselves over because nobody ever, apparently, told them there is a better way demonstrated by, basically, the entire rest of the industrialized freaking world! We also take great pride in our "common sense" - Really?

I suspect our problems are a LOT bigger than anybody thinks - A LOT BIGGER!
Unfortunately, American exceptionalism is deeply embedded in a lot of the population, all across the political spectrum. Fix that, and we could actually look at other countries approaches to health care and adopt useful alternatives. And it's not the case that all other countries, or even all other developed countries, have the same solution.

When ACA was being considered in Congress, partisan politics was a major roadblock. Democrats bent over backwards getting bipartisan input. Republicans wrote a lot of it, and then unanimously voted against the bill that was essentially RomneyCare. Blue dog Democrats and the Senator from the insurance industry blocked a public option. If there had one more Liberal Democrat in the Senate, we could have had one, and ACA would have evolved into single-payer by now.

Maybe in February we will have the Congress that can patch the loopholes and add a public option, and also designate it as out of the jurisdiction of the courts.
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Medicare expansion is available only with means testing. You need to be at or below poverty level. Currently around 20k. Above that and you are exposed to high deductibles and co-pays making it horrendously expensive for average wages.
I'm pretty sure you meant Medicaid, not Medicare.

In states with reasonable Governors (all Democrats and some Republicans), the top income level for Medicaid meets the bottom income for ACA. Medicaid is all free. Bottom income ACA is 100% subsidized, with a lot of preventive care included and programs for copay assistance. The subsidies are very generous have a sliding scale, so are you complaining that well-paid people are not getting free ACA? That doesn't sound very progressive to me!

The coverage gap in some states is obviously the fault of those Republican ideolog Governors who rejected Medicaid expansion. It's quite a stretch to blame that on Liberals.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/23/20 03:00 AM
Yes, I do want people of all income levels to have a ‘medicare for all’ plan.
It comes hard to liberals to think of universal programs. It takes away their right to police who gets provisioned and allows them, as well as their conservative cousins, to exploit the subsequent tensions that come from the creation of classes having different levels deserving.
Are you supporting health insurance companies over universal healthcare, as Biden has declared in tonight’s debates? If so, why?
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/23/20 05:17 PM
I remember it well. Watched the Republicans mark it up and add a bunch of stuff.

It won't be too much longer to find out. First they have to lose, then Trump needs to be dealt with, and THEN we will find out.

The thing that gives me some hope is that straight forward paper ballots are available if anybody challenges and they don't get mistakenly destroyed (I put nothing past the Republicans this time around as Trump has infected them all!)
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Are you supporting health insurance companies over universal healthcare, as Biden has declared in tonight’s debates? If so, why?

I'm actually in favor of British-style National Health. Not MediCare For All, because my Medicare drug coverage copays actually costs me about $6000 per year, while my Blue Cross had a much lower copay cost. The problem is that Medicare drug costs have a weird donut hole and then Catastrophic Care level coverage has the patient paying 5% of the drug retail price. Combine that with drug companies charging any price they like with a monopoly on a new drug for many years, and voila: Drugs seniors can't afford.

BUT, (and this is a very important BUT), Democrats barely got ACA made into law over 10 years ago, and Republicans have been doing everything they can think up to kill it ever since. So I believe that in the real world, ACA was the best we could do then. Even including a public option stopped passage until it was removed. That's just how real politics works. You can't take your opponents in Congress out back and shoot them. People in their states or districts vote them in and they get to vote on bills. Want to change things to be better? Change voter's hearts.

Democrats might vote for National Health, if they get enough voter support. Republicans never will.
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/23/20 10:09 PM
In 2016, Trump gained a quarter of his electoral votes from just 191,000 votes in the closest four states. Trump won Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by less than 1.3%. 538 has Biden winning all four, three of them handily.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/23/20 11:08 PM
Real clear politics has Biden at the same spot as Clinton in the top battleground states. 3.8%

Top Battlegrounds 2020 vs. 2016
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/23/20 11:12 PM
I find it darkly hilarious that it's this close and polling had Sanders performing better than the DNC anointed candidates of both 2016 and 2020 against Trump.

Awww waddya gunna do. Better than the threat of a New Dealist realignment I suppose.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/23/20 11:31 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Quote
Are you supporting health insurance companies over universal healthcare, as Biden has declared in tonight’s debates? If so, why?

I'm actually in favor of British-style National Health. Not MediCare For All, because my Medicare drug coverage copays actually costs me about $6000 per year, while my Blue Cross had a much lower copay cost. The problem is that Medicare drug costs have a weird donut hole and then Catastrophic Care level coverage has the patient paying 5% of the drug retail price. Combine that with drug companies charging any price they like with a monopoly on a new drug for many years, and voila: Drugs seniors can't afford.

BUT, (and this is a very important BUT), Democrats barely got ACA made into law over 10 years ago, and Republicans have been doing everything they can think up to kill it ever since. So I believe that in the real world, ACA was the best we could do then. Even including a public option stopped passage until it was removed. That's just how real politics works. You can't take your opponents in Congress out back and shoot them. People in their states or districts vote them in and they get to vote on bills. Want to change things to be better? Change voter's hearts.

Democrats might vote for National Health, if they get enough voter support. Republicans never will.

Your still not clued up to the Sanders 'Medicare for all' plan he had put out during the campaign? Hadn't read the proposal?

I thought we had this discussion 50 pages back? I even provided a link to it at the time for anyone to read it so's you'd understand it's not the same thing as what you have.

I think you made the same incorrect comparison then as now..

Anyway. Who cares, right? Ain't happening now either way this elections going. Missed the shot and there's only been a few since Roosevelt. We'll continue to talk. People will go broke, die or both under our current Dunkin Donuts managed system.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 03:31 AM
I hear Brunhilde clearing her throat with a "do re mi" .... but I haven't heard the "Hojotoho"!
Posted By: NW Ponderer Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 04:27 AM
RCP is crap. I keep pointing this out. They have no quality control.
I actually voted for Sanders in the California Primary, but he lost. Doesn't matter what Sanders proposed, because he did not get enough primary votes to win. You have to win the primary and then the election to actually make changes.

Your ideas might be so brilliant that the winners adopt them, but they get the credit then. Ideas are a dime a dozen.

I am happy getting what's possible. I might want the impossible, but by definition that's not going to happen.

As I said before, you have to change voter's hearts. Make them into better people who care about others, the future, and The Republic. Essentially civic virtue.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 12:53 PM
Ok. Sounds like you didn’t actually read the proposal and still conflate Medicare for all’ with current Medicare.

You don’t have to ‘change hearts and minds’ the public is already there. Acting like it’s not is so much reducing expectations that liberals politicians do. I’ve stated before, popular will of voters has had nearly no effect on legislation at the federal level. There’s has been good research on this fact so arguing outside of this reality with someone is like arguing with a Qanon conspiracist.

Oddly, Qanon does get the gist right from time to time. They were much more ahead on the wealthy pedophilia going on. Details were pretty incorrect but they called the crime ring right. But that’s a different thread.

No, there’s nothing unique to America and adoption of progressive policies on healthcare. Both factions have been skilled at lowering people’s expectations while enriching the only class of voters they care about. Donor class obviously.

How bout that final debate. Epic, watching thoroughly corrupt liars going at each other’s corruption. You gotta love the lack of any quality material to be had in either factions candidate.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 01:07 PM
In today's modern political era of polarization, mega, ultra high partisanship you're not going to change many hearts. It is said that politics is the art of the possible. Getting what is possible and putting what isn't on the back burner is wise politics. You may be able to take only a few steps forward, toward you achieving your goal by going slow, but you're moving closer all the time.

It's when you over reach, try to do the impossible that the people get angry and throw you out to where achieving only a few steps forward toward you goal becomes impossible.

You're correct, first one must win elections. As a loser, whether in the primary or general, making changes becomes impossible. Unless there is an outside force, outside of the two major parties pushing for it.

The ideal situation would be to return to an era of more cooperation between parties. But that isn't about to happen in the near future. So what a party needs to do is recognize that huge group that's in-between the two major parties. To read them as to what they'll accept and what they won't. This is a big and growing group as more and more people become dissatisfied with both major parties. Push your agenda to the limits of what they'll accept, don't go over or they'll throw you out. Gain your few steps, stop. Then come back next year for a few more steps, stop. Then come back the year after and so on.

People laugh when I talk about comfort zones. But elections are lost when you take these in-betweeners out of their comfort zone. They rebel. It's hard to know when to stop and when to push more. The trick is not to get these people angry at you.

Get them angry, you get wave elections where you get thrown out. 1994,2006, 2010 and 2018 are examples. That's four wave election recently. The last wave election prior to these was in 1948. Slow and steady will eventually get you what you want, lurches gets you thrown out.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 05:44 PM
That sounds like restrained wisdom. I see no evidence of what your talking about in the historical record. No progress has been made by a 'don't ask for too much' approach. Rather, it's a way to lower expectations of those being under served by those that benefit from the system as it is.

Again, you just witnessed the largest wealth transfer in human history under the CARES act and there was crickets about it being too radical or not slow and steady enough. Hmmm...

You also have to ignore the fact that voter preferences have no effect on legislation. Zero. Almost all legislation is being written by lobbyist. Medicare for all has broad popular support yet the current political leadership is against it in favor of a system costing twice as much while delivering terrible results compared to our peer countries.

No, reducing peoples expectations is just a way of those benefiting from the system to gas light those that aren't from wondering 'where's our help?'

Trillions dropped over of the Hamptons... crickets...
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 06:23 PM
We need universal healthcare provided by society - just like the police and fire departments. Everybody is involved and everybody pays for it. There are a lot of different ways to do that and should study on it before doing it.

The real problem is the word 'social', in all its permutations. Bernie, for instance, lost because he insisted on attaching the word "socialist" to his name. Socialism, regardless of how used is anathema in America. Its just the way it is. We really need to get it done but its not gonna happen if them trying to get it done even mentions it, let alone putting it in print. They MUST dance around that word, and all permutations. as its deadly and certainly proven in the last few years.

I know, its stupid, makes no sense, and WTF all apply - don't make no different as its a fact. The really unfortunate part is there seems to be a Democratic segment who are determined to use the word every chance they get even though the results are always bad.

Oh, words make a difference!
Some people are so in love with Socialism, they can't see what that label evokes in 95% of American voters. Generations of voters will have to die out before the specter of Soviet Socialism is forgotten.

As I said before, I'm in favor of British-style National Health: See? No "socialism" in the name at all, but entirely accessible to all and financed by taxes. My aim is get everybody healthcare, not to force everybody to love socialism.

As for "Medicare For All", that phrase can mean lots of things to different people. I know very well that any Medicare For All plan we would actually end up with would be much more like the current Medicare, but with younger people paying to buy into it, than Bernie's plan.

That's why I favor a "boiled frog" approach of adding a Public Option to ACA and fixing the holes in it, in 2021. Let that cook for a while, and since the public option would be 15% cheaper than any other for the same medical group memberships, most ACA enrollees would soon be selecting it. Then employers would switch their employees to the ACA public option to save money. After 5 or 10 years, everybody would be using the public option. And of course, subsidies would be increased over time. Voila: Boiled frog.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 09:00 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
That sounds like restrained wisdom. I see no evidence of what your talking about in the historical record. No progress has been made by a 'don't ask for too much' approach. Rather, it's a way to lower expectations of those being under served by those that benefit from the system as it is.

Again, you just witnessed the largest wealth transfer in human history under the CARES act and there was crickets about it being too radical or not slow and steady enough. Hmmm...

You also have to ignore the fact that voter preferences have no effect on legislation. Zero. Almost all legislation is being written by lobbyist. Medicare for all has broad popular support yet the current political leadership is against it in favor of a system costing twice as much while delivering terrible results compared to our peer countries.

No, reducing peoples expectations is just a way of those benefiting from the system to gas light those that aren't from wondering 'where's our help?'

Trillions dropped over of the Hamptons... crickets...
Hmm, voter preferences. In 2008 the voters elected Obama to fix the economy, he provided the stimulus. They he went a bit too far as the voters were concerned to the tune of a 63 house seat loss along with 8 more in the senate. The voter preference back in 2010 was no ACA. Obama finished his last six years in office as a caretaker president constantly defending the ACA when so much else could have, might have been accomplished if he listened to the voter preferences at the time.

That wasn't what the people elected Obama to do, one could say because of that, it lead to Trump.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 09:03 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
Some people are so in love with Socialism, they can't see what that label evokes in 95% of American voters. Generations of voters will have to die out before the specter of Soviet Socialism is forgotten.

As I said before, I'm in favor of British-style National Health: See? No "socialism" in the name at all, but entirely accessible to all and financed by taxes. My aim is get everybody healthcare, not to force everybody to love socialism.

As for "Medicare For All", that phrase can mean lots of things to different people. I know very well that any Medicare For All plan we would actually end up with would be much more like the current Medicare, but with younger people paying to buy into it, than Bernie's plan.

That's why I favor a "boiled frog" approach of adding a Public Option to ACA and fixing the holes in it, in 2021. Let that cook for a while, and since the public option would be 15% cheaper than any other for the same medical group memberships, most ACA enrollees would soon be selecting it. Then employers would switch their employees to the ACA public option to save money. After 5 or 10 years, everybody would be using the public option. And of course, subsidies would be increased over time. Voila: Boiled frog.
Makes sense to me. It also wouldn't in my opinion take many folks out of their comfort zone. No 2010 in 2022.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 09:14 PM
Quote
Obama finished his last six years in office as a caretaker president ... when so much else could have, might have been accomplished if he listened to the voter preferences at the time.
Or if he had been a Republican, so Sen McConnell would not have buried all Democrat bills.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/24/20 11:57 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
Obama finished his last six years in office as a caretaker president ... when so much else could have, might have been accomplished if he listened to the voter preferences at the time.
Or if he had been a Republican, so Sen McConnell would not have buried all Democrat bills.

Reid did the same to the Republican House Bills sent over between 2011-2014. Reid tabled some 300 plus bills.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 01:45 PM
“ Some people are so in love with Socialism, they can't see what that label evokes in 95% of American voters. Generations of voters will have to die out before the specter of Soviet Socialism is forgotten”

Hmmm, I suppose you’re referring to me. I’m an any means necessary guy and if we get a better, sane and equitable redistribution of resources, I don’t care who’s brand it comes from. Fun fact about the Soviet Union. Most of the older, less critical generations of Americans are thoroughly indoctrinated by Cold War propaganda when it comes to the Soviets. Now that there’s been some time and distance we’re learning more of the facts from the fiction. One being they lifted more people out of poverty faster than anywhere else on earth. Conversely, with Perestroika came an awareness by its Liberal classes that they were embarrassingly unequal compared to liberals in the west. It was that class that dissolved the Soviet Union which, at the time, had broad popular support for maintaining.
What followed was a neoliberal assault on their society much like we conduct in other parts of the world. Fraudulent loans to use debt to asset strip their public goods and services. I believe it was our own US ambassador who was quoted as saying he witnessed the largest pillaging of a society in human history during the Clinton years. A pillaging that led to many premature deaths that some put in the millions.
I may not love socialism but I’ve learned to loath liberals and conservatives alike. They’re simply kissing cousins to one another but broadly agree. State violence, taxation, etc..
I think it will take the passing of boomers, the most indoctrinated generation, IMO, to fade before we can see any movement towards true economic, racial justice. There will be the court system to act as a bulwark to maintain the current political economy. Here, too, liberals have been complicit.

“ As for "Medicare For All", that phrase can mean lots of things to different people. I know very well that any Medicare For All plan we would actually end up with would be much more like the current Medicare, but with younger people paying to buy into it, than Bernie's plan.”.

- It will always mean a lot to many people if you don’t take the trouble to read and understand it. Hard to have a debate with anyone who ‘knows’ what the future events will be and is arguing from that place and not the present.

65k/year die. Cost more than anywhere else on earth. Delivers poor results. That’s some boiling!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 02:39 PM
Originally Posted by jgw
We need universal healthcare provided by society - just like the police and fire departments. Everybody is involved and everybody pays for it. There are a lot of different ways to do that and should study on it before doing it.

The real problem is the word 'social', in all its permutations. Bernie, for instance, lost because he insisted on attaching the word "socialist" to his name. Socialism, regardless of how used is anathema in America. Its just the way it is. We really need to get it done but its not gonna happen if them trying to get it done even mentions it, let alone putting it in print. They MUST dance around that word, and all permutations. as its deadly and certainly proven in the last few years.

I know, its stupid, makes no sense, and WTF all apply - don't make no different as its a fact. The really unfortunate part is there seems to be a Democratic segment who are determined to use the word every chance they get even though the results are always bad.

Oh, words make a difference!

Sanders lost with vote thru DNC vote rigging and the coordination of campaigns to collapse into one candidate on super Tuesday.

The DNC took over the vote counts in Iowa when it appeared that Sanders was going to win there. We still don't know the final vote tallies from this action except Sanders won but his bounce was suppressed coming out of that win. Had nothing to do with cold war 'Socialism'.

Two of the top candidates, below the front runner Sanders, dropped out of the race and threw their support behind the DNC establishment chosen candidate Biden, who had the lowest electoral count going into super Tuesday. Again, the word 'Socialism' had nothing to do with that activity.

This makes a mockery of democratic voting, by the way, and makes any attempt with liberals fretting over concerns of Republican's stealing in the general so much of the pot calling the kettle black. Refusal to defend the primary election has made that class completely phony. Russian conspiracies to explain the loss of the last general election makes them no better than Qanon, IMO. A similar refusal to face reality but it's baked in the cake now. I'm digressing..

The Sanders campaign had the most consistent level of stickiness and consistent rise in the polling over time. His campaign was the most diverse, in terms of ethnicity, gender and age, than any other candidates. His campaign and supporters were, much like 2016, reviled as homophobic, misogynistic, and racist by the liberal leaning media. That message was picked up and echoed, as efficiently as any propaganda piece could have been, by witting viewer participants. Some here were guilty of that IIRC.

Socialism scare tactics came from liberal/conservative media alike when the threat of his candidacy was taking off. Their use of the word looks to have been shrugged off from the polling record across the entire timeline of the primary. He simply ran out of runway before the DNC acted to close the airport. He should have gone after Biden harder, reducing his favorability before they closed the airport. Would have made it harder for Obama and co. to do so. Oh well, hindsight...

I think 'Socialism!' had little effect, much like Trumps rudeness and boorishness, as the political center has become more illegitimate with more voters now. Being different was a bonus, actually, and the Sanders campaign crashed against the wall of back room coordination by Obama and the DNC more than a cold war relic that still stirs in the Boomer subconscious.

No, it was illiberal co-ordination of Obama, DNC party (Perez, Mook, etc..) and media than a word that has only grown in popularity over the decades of neoliberalism.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 06:01 PM
Yep, he had the full support of socialists, purists, etc. Not, however, the middle or independents. Sorry, its just the way it is. The Republicans REALLY know that and use it at any opportunity and it works for them.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 06:50 PM
Bring receipts of what your talking about, JGW.
Otherwise, your doing your usual ‘that’s just the way it is’ punting.

Whatever you do, worry about Republican reaction first and foremost. That’s just how politics works.

For some.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 08:04 PM
I think what won it for Biden was he was viewed more electable and more likely to beat Trump. Back on 3 March 2020, just prior to Super Tuesday, 66% of Democrats thought Biden would beat Trump, 19% thought he'd lose. Among independents, 23% thought Biden would win, 43% that he'd lose to Trump.

Sanders, 52% of Democrats thought he'd beat Trump, 29% thought he'd lose to Trump. So among Democrats prior to super Tuesday, Biden was thought to have the better chance of winning. Independents 24% thought Sanders would win, 45% thought he'd lose. That's a wash. Questions 42A and 42E.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3rdraw493c/econTabReport.pdf

Since Democrats outnumber independents in voting in the Democratic Primaries by at least 4-1, it isn't surprising Biden ended up the nominee as more Democrats thought he had the best chance of beating Trump. Beating Trump was first and foremost their reason for voting for him. At least that's my perspective.

You could take this further by the poll showing Biden was the Democrats first choice 34% to 22% over Sanders while independents who voted in the Democratic primaries gave their vote to Sanders 33-14 over Biden. But they were overwhelmed by the party faithful. Question 40.

Now this means independents who lean democratic and who voted in the Democratic Primaries, not independents as a whole. Far from it. I would say, Biden looked like the safe bet to beat Trump and that's why he won the nomination.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 08:53 PM
I wouldn't disagree that at some points Biden was more popular than Sanders during the campaign. Not going to read the chart but thanks for the offer. I'm worried it'll lead to a pie chart fight anyhow.

That's not so say that I wasn't paying attention, as I'm sure you were Perisota.

Biden had BIG amplitude during the campaign. Meaning he had the widest spread in being up then being down. He was getting shopped thru out the campaign. Other candidates were being spun at various times and received the media bump or wilted in the glare.

Kamala, Warren Beto and the office rat all had their turn and flamed out.

Only Sanders had the grind going on. His chart, over time, had consistent gain. He needed to hammer it before he ran out of runway.

Spot on about the tilt in the primaries toward party brand. I posted about this annoyingly often and the various gate keeping going on. Even now they're trying to get the Green Party thrown off the ballot in Pennsylvania.

Limit consumer choice I suppose...


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/25/20 09:08 PM
You don't have that many open primaries where independents can vote in the primaries. You either have to be a registered Democrat or a registered Republican. I'm lucky as here in Georgia, one just registers to vote and can vote in either primary. I think at last count 28 states were closed primaries, the remaining 22 open where independents can vote in the primaries.

The two major parties will go to any length to keep third parties off the ballot. Yes, it all about maintaining their monopoly and limiting choices.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/26/20 03:28 AM
We've got an amendment on the ballot to make Florida primaries open...but only state offices.

I voted for it today.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/26/20 04:58 AM
Quote
I think what won it for Biden was he was viewed more electable and more likely to beat Trump.
That's the deal right there. We all new from the start that anybody else was a longshot.

I was rooting for Beto at first, he woulda been fun.

Then I went for Warren, she woulda been awesome. She's kind of a technocrat and I like that.

When Bernie took that jump near the end I got really excited!

Then Biden won just as we knew he would. It was an exciting primary and the Democratic Party platform moved slightly left thanks to Bernie's participation.

I'm okay with how it turned out.

He probably is too...and he is actively campaigning for progressive candidates all over the country! He's kind of like Benjamin Franklin, y'know? Was never a president but got his face on the century note!

There's a lot of interesting things coming up politically, mostly positive I think. Joe will be able to get some things done that need to be done, and the crazies will fade back into the woodwork.


Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/26/20 11:44 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
...Biden looked like the safe bet to beat Trump and that's why he won the nomination.
That's exactly why Biden was nominated.


Biden has many flaws, cruelty to others is not one of them, dehumanization of others is not one of them. Cruelty towards others and dehumanization and incompetence is not one of them. Incompetence and cruelty are Trump's modus operandi.

Biden was selected to return Washington back to normal, to work with Congress to get things done for the American people. People are sick of Presidents who only work for their base.

smile
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/26/20 11:47 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
I'm okay with how it turned out.

He probably is too...and he is actively campaigning for progressive candidates all over the country! He's kind of like Benjamin Franklin, y'know? Was never a president but got his face on the century note!

There's a lot of interesting things coming up politically, mostly positive I think. Joe will be able to get some things done that need to be done, and the crazies will fade back into the woodwork.
What do you think about Sanders being Labor Secretary?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/26/20 12:27 PM
I agree with all of you from my last post. As for open primaries, why wouldn't you want to give a voice to independents participating in both major parties primaries? After all, it's independents that decide elections, at least for the presidency, not party members as both are too small at this point to do that on their own. Each major party makes up approximately 30% of the electorate these days, independents 40%. Give them a stake in your party.

The old argument that only Republicans and only Democrats should choose their party's nominee is sort of old hat with the shrinkage of both major parties. I understand that, but with the growth in independents, it's time for a change.

2016 was a prime example of independents deciding the presidential election, not the party faithful. It's also an example where independents didn't want the candidates nominated by each party to become their next president. If you go down the list of closed and open primaries, you'll find Trump and Clinton winning most of the closed primary states.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/26/20 02:27 PM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Originally Posted by perotista
...Biden looked like the safe bet to beat Trump and that's why he won the nomination.
That's exactly why Biden was nominated.


Biden has many flaws, cruelty to others is not one of them, dehumanization of others is not one of them. Cruelty towards others and dehumanization is Donald Incompetence is not one of them. Incompetence and cruelty are Trump's modus operandi.

Biden was selected to return Washington back to normal, to work with Congress to get things done for the American people. People are sick of Presidents who only work for their base.

smile

Reality distortion turned to 10.

It’s like the “they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work” sorta denialism you got going there Rick.

If you put both men’s degeneracy on the scales, I think they’d be pretty even. Some like their bigotry, cruelty and criminality more overt, I’d prefer it out in the open. Makes more tactical sense to me. Keeps everyone on their toes.
The problem with open primaries is that one party can tell their supporters to vote in the primary for their preferred candidate in the other primary. Probably not a good thing.

Even in states with closed primaries, we have seen this "opponent selection" already: Republicans have never much attacked Sanders because they felt it would be a slam-dunk to defeat him.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/27/20 01:19 AM
Mr Trump sent out the memo to SC justices .... votes will only be counted if received on Nov 3 ... all others will be discarded.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/27/20 01:33 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
The problem with open primaries is that one party can tell their supporters to vote in the primary for their preferred candidate in the other primary. Probably not a good thing.

Even in states with closed primaries, we have seen this "opponent selection" already: Republicans have never much attacked Sanders because they felt it would be a slam-dunk to defeat him.
They're may be right.

"Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities"

https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563/socialism-atheism-political-liabilities.aspx

I'm sure you would have seen a ton of TV ads where Sanders himself was describing himself as a Democratic Socialist. Perhaps even a split screen of Sanders and Stalin or something akin to that.

Would it have worked, most likely. Especially among independents who quite a lot still equate socialism with communism. At least the older ones and it's the older ones who vote.

The Democrats would accept him, vote for him. Republican wouldn't. But that's true of any candidate they put up. The problem comes from independents who usually decide national elections. Only 45% of them would even consider voting for a socialist. Which means 55% would be voting against him at a minimum.

One thing for sure, if Sanders had won the nomination, the general election campaign would be a very nasty one. Even nastier than any we have ever seen.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/27/20 01:47 AM
Quote
"Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities"

But not for much longer! Younger voters are becoming less religious and more socialist all the time.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/27/20 02:41 AM
Quote
Perhaps even a split screen of Sanders and Stalin or something akin to that.
It is well understood by all the Trump supporters I know (and I live in a virtual ocean of them), Democrats ARE socialist, communist pigs. So you do not have to imagine a campaign. It is alive and well just outside Houston TX.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/27/20 01:10 PM
I wouldn’t disagree that older, more affluent generations are still reactionary to ‘socialism’, a concept only understood thru state propaganda. Irony somewhere there. Seems to be disappearing with younger audiences, as Gregor pointed out.
I think Americans are some of the most dominated, indoctrinated people on earth when it comes to our ‘kingdom of fear’ form of government.
Gore Vidal made a good case against Truman for being the architect of the fear kingdom immediately after WW2 by scaring the hell out of everybody to keep the army well fed and nourished with large military spending and a constant state of readiness. Breaking with the tradition of de-mobilization and scaling back to a peacetime core organization. A jobs program at best, nascent militarism at worst. Dunno, some argue it started with the civil war during the rise of industrial capitalism itself and worrying Lincoln with the consequences of a rise of the industrial military. Either way, here we are today, replacing one apparition with another two support the military contractor industry. No beating swords into plow shares for us. Not unless we make the world exactly as us. Only then can we be safe goes the pitch.
Wallace and The Roosevelt clan fought Truman but in the end, the profit motive won out.
Since then we have, as a country, only internalized more and more of the fascist ideology as the american way. Killing millions of brown complected people and doing political purges against any left leaning politics, both home and abroad, by both american right wing factions.
As far as I know, the security apparatus kills only leftists while actively recruiting fascists. Only purges leftist from academics, etc..
Hearing older generations fears of ‘what the fascists will think’ about having any left leaning politics, that exists thru out the rest of the worlds political parties quit peaceably, is a triumph of the military and security state and our two right wing political parties.


Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/28/20 07:37 PM
I overheard a Trump supporter say VP Biden if he won would end the oil industry and thus effective wipe Texas off the map. Then he said Biden would raise his taxes. I had to wonder if someone who worked in a meat locker made over 400K per year ... may have to start looking for a job.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/28/20 10:43 PM
Ooooof!

Record cases of covid 19, market tanking. Forest fires and country club incompetence not even trying to look capable. The newly minted Republicratic party couldn't ask for a better scenario going into the home stretch. I'm gunna lose some money on this horse race. Gunna take a miracle.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/29/20 02:53 AM
I don't think I have seen anyone consider this .... what damage could Mr Trump do to the country if he loses between election lose and inauguration???? of course that does not include him not leaving the WH.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/29/20 01:24 PM
I must be slow on the uptake. There have been several real serious folks cogitating over this very question. Yes it should be readily apparent he will expose his corruption (which his supporters would be thrilled as it is in your face) but there could be more noxious repercussions.

This guy is a pox on humanity.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/29/20 02:25 PM
A good question rporter.
My guess would be to steal anything else that hasn’t been already and is not nailed down.
Unfortunately, american politics and political discussion has resolved solely around ‘gotta get rid of Trump!’ As the be all end all topic worth considering.

Should we also be asking what will be the damage should Biden prevail and his administration gets confirmed? The fact that it will be a republicrat west wing brained cabinet tells me it will be an ongoing ‘bipartisan’ fetishizing administration with the worst tendencies of both political factions being applied. Names being floated for his cabinet does not inspire confidence in the future.

Just a thought.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/29/20 03:40 PM
We're all listening to tea leaf readers now but Blyth called it right in 2016. A good conversation but the election comes in around 13 minutes.

Not saying he's right again but I do pay attention to the people who have a track record vs. ones who draw a paycheck being a partisan hack.

Place your bets accordingly...

Economics and the Election with Mark Blyth
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/29/20 07:48 PM
If the election were held today, I'd go Biden 52%, Trump 45%, Jorgensen 2%, Hawkins 1% in the nationwide popular vote. I'd also give the senate to the Dems by at least a 51-49 margin with possibility if Biden has long coat tails of a possible 54-46. I'd also give the Dems a net gain of 5-10 seats in the House.

The senate, Alabama to the GOP, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Iowa to the Demos with the possibility of picking up Montana, the two Georgia seats with Mississippi, Texas and South Carolina being long shots if Biden wins by 10 or more points which I don't think he will. Montana and the two Georgia seats are close to 50-50 with the GOP having a very slight edge. I expect both Georgia seats to go to a January runoff.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins Georgia, right now Trump is a very slight favorite by a point or two.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/30/20 01:18 AM
I think Dems have found a secret weapon in Nevada

Thinking outside the box
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/30/20 04:18 AM


TU 10/27 on Fresh Air episode with Terry Gross, Terry interviewed Evan Osnos, Joe Biden biographer.

You know how social justice warriors are tying to make all criminal drug charges not be criminal and just have rehabilitated "drug courts?" It turns out all of that was a part of the 1994 Crime Bill that Biden is getting beat-up for.

It also turns out that Newt Gingrich and the Republican controlled Congress striped-out all of the "good stuff" like "drug courts" and just kept the harsher parts.

Now...that makes sense to me why Joe Biden would sponsor such a Bill in the first place. Hmm

Republicans can't help but show the awful side of their humanity. crazy
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/30/20 01:38 PM
This your guy Rick?



Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/30/20 05:02 PM
Nearly 30 years ago...What he said made sense then. But there has been a sea change over the last decade or two and Biden's thinking has evolved along with it.

neoliberalism hasn't breathed it's last yet, but it's breath is getting short.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/30/20 09:33 PM
I find this very interesting and it may be what I've been looking for ever since Ross Perot broke on the scene.

Some ‘Biden Republicans’ just keep talking about a new political party

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...n-supporters-donald-trump-170245426.html

I've been unaffiliated for my entire life except for a few years as a member of the Reform Party. What that means is I supported the republicans on some issues and some candidates and the democrats on other issues and other candidates.

A political party somewhere in-between the far left Democrats and far right GOP would be ideal for me. I wonder how many more would find that appealing. It may all boil down to what Biden and the Democrats do once they're in full power.

Will it come about? Probably not. Both major parties have a monopoly on our electoral system and they'll do anything to maintain which I found out with the Reform Party. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Democrats help the Republican Party to brush this idea aside. It's in both major parties interest to maintain their monopoly. So we'll see as time passes.
I don't think the mainstream Democratic Party is as "Far Left" as you seem to think. Sure, there are some progressive "stars" like the gang of five in the House. But almost half the House is pretty centrist. On the other hand, pretty much all of the House Republicans are Trump supporters. The moderates are most Lincoln Project supporters. Rare as hen's teeth.

So I think your ideal "Centrist Party" does already exist, and it's called The Democratic Party.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/31/20 03:19 AM
We're hoping to change that, and in the next decade or two turn the Democratic Party into the progressive body that Pero thinks it is now.
Republicans are going to have a hard time staying relevant moving forward. They appear to be on the wrong side of history on every single issue.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/31/20 01:18 PM
The Democratic Party is certainly on the opposite of some issues I hold dear, but so too are the Republicans. That makes me a swing voting non-partisan, non-affiliated individual. In other words, most would call me an independent.

As for the democratic party being a centrist party, that depends where you stand at looking at the democrats. If you're far left, a progressive, certainly the Democrats are a centrist party just like the GOP is a centrist party if you're far right. If you're someone like me, you always wonder why these two major parties can come together, make some compromises, govern more toward the middle where most or the average American is.

Regardless, we'll see how Biden governs. If he governs like the old Senator Joe Biden the Democratic Party may be able to reverse its shrinkage. It may be able to gain some of those who deserted them over their litmus tests back into the fold. If he doesn't, if Biden makes them angry, this huge group in-between the two parties will vote Republican in 2022 probably giving them control of the House back.

Americans Favor Compromise to Get Things Done in Washington

https://news.gallup.com/poll/220265/americans-favor-compromise-things-done-washington.aspx
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/31/20 04:39 PM
Democrats are not totally averse to compromise. They are willing to deal.

Republicans on the other hand...not so much.

The godless communists across the aisle are not worthy of anything other than banishment to whatever country their ancestors came from or simply death outright. They've made it clear with their guns and god rhetoric. Nothing that passes in the Democratic House will ever see the light of day in the Republican Senate.

Our president has stated clearly that anyone who opposes anything he wants is the enemy. Anyone who disagrees is the enemy, the free press is the enemy. They do not bargain with the enemy...they attempt to destroy them.

Pero, as I recall you are a one issue voter. It's all about the military and everything else is neither here nor there. Republicans are strong supporters of the Military Industrial Complex and the billionaires who profit from it. Indirectly, that benefits the military. My concern is not the billionaires. It's the troops...are they receiving adequate pay for the job they are doing? Are they receiving adequate healthcare? Are they receiving adequate pensions?
Or is an unhealthy amount of our military budget going directly into the pockets of billionaires?

I'm not sure why you cling to the Republican party nor why you are proud of occasionally voting for them. I am personally ashamed to vote for either party but will hold my nose and vote for democrats. The stench of death and decay around the Republican Party simply makes it impossible for me to consider any of their candidates.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/31/20 06:54 PM
The Republicans set on the course of never dealing with Newt Gringrich in the 1980's It actually served them well over time. The Democrats continued to deal but the Republicans didn't so, basically, the Republicans won no matter what. I think the Dems have finally got the message. I remember when Obama spent a LOT of time trying to deal with them and we all know how that went. If, this time around, the Dems actually take it all it might be interesting to change the seating in the congress which would force the congressional jerks, on both sides, to at least say things like; "Good morning", etc.

Trump has turned the Republican support for the military back on its head. He stopped, for instance, fixing housing, rebuilding facilities destroyed in hurricanes, etc. to "build" his wall as well as other wastes. Then, when you add in his obvious disdain for virtually all military I think he has pretty much wrecked that so called support.

The part I really don't like is the so called support, from congress, of the military/industrial complex wherein they actually have built billion dollar airplanes that don't fly when they knew they didn't fly but did provide jobs. One would think that if we had a congress that actually gave a damn they would have spent the money on infrastructure instead so everybody might bathe in their extravagance. I know, not gonna happen - but, some day it might!
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 10/31/20 10:54 PM
The F35?

I heard one DOD wag saying ‘there’s just no end to what it can’t do’

I remember a time when there was a public sentiment against ginormous military spending. After Vietnam.

The brass got to work thru film and media and no we can’t spend enough. I don’t know what’s worse. Having Hollywood full of pentagon ghouls or the CIA capture of need media,

It seems like a lifetime ago when there was wide public animus towards the spook house with the weapons of mass destruction hoax of Iraq.

Now, after massive death and destruction, it’s the Dems who love the ‘intelligence’ community and the Republicans who distrust them.

I agree with Gore Vidal. Truman was a jerk letting the army bloat up. We’ve been dealing with it ever since.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/01/20 01:10 AM
Originally Posted by Greger
Democrats are not totally averse to compromise. They are willing to deal.

Republicans on the other hand...not so much.

The godless communists across the aisle are not worthy of anything other than banishment to whatever country their ancestors came from or simply death outright. They've made it clear with their guns and god rhetoric. Nothing that passes in the Democratic House will ever see the light of day in the Republican Senate.

Our president has stated clearly that anyone who opposes anything he wants is the enemy. Anyone who disagrees is the enemy, the free press is the enemy. They do not bargain with the enemy...they attempt to destroy them.

Pero, as I recall you are a one issue voter. It's all about the military and everything else is neither here nor there. Republicans are strong supporters of the Military Industrial Complex and the billionaires who profit from it. Indirectly, that benefits the military. My concern is not the billionaires. It's the troops...are they receiving adequate pay for the job they are doing? Are they receiving adequate healthcare? Are they receiving adequate pensions?
Or is an unhealthy amount of our military budget going directly into the pockets of billionaires?

I'm not sure why you cling to the Republican party nor why you are proud of occasionally voting for them. I am personally ashamed to vote for either party but will hold my nose and vote for democrats. The stench of death and decay around the Republican Party simply makes it impossible for me to consider any of their candidates.
What I see when it comes to the military is those on both sides of the aisle using the military as a civilian jobs creator and maintainer. I've always said, even on this site that if congress only gave the military what it needed, what it asked for, you could easily cut 100 billion from DOD's budget without harming the national defense, the security of this country or anything else.

What more can JCS or the military in general do? They tell congress they have enough of this or that, that they can't use this and yet to keep jobs back in their districts or states, to create more, congress makes the military buy these things.

A lot of that stuff end up in warehouses where it sits, unused for 10-15 years and then is sold at a DRMO auction. I've seen this many times.

I don't know about the military industrial complex, perhaps it is they who are forcing these congress critters to make the military buy all this stuff. But I always had the feeling it was more to protect civilian jobs, bring back the bacon so to speak. Perhaps it a combination of both.

My Democratic congress man is great at keeping a C-130 plant going producing more and more C-130's. A prop job first made in the 1950's. I went to a DRMO auction a year or so ago and bought 3 brand new lap tops for 50 dollars. Unused, still in the original box, only they still had Windows 7 on them.

I'd say yes to pay, the retirement system has change some, I'm retired, no complaints. Heath care, excellent for active duty. The VA provides excellent care once one gets into the system. But getting into the system is very difficult. There's a huge backlog of those who apply. It can take 3-4 years before one can get in unless one is wounded in action or is injured while on active duty and given a medical discharge. Then it's automatic.

But the problem with VA goes back to when I was first drafted back in 1966. It spans all the different presidents and parties who controlled congress.

Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/01/20 06:56 PM
The VA is in terrible shape and that is not really the problem. The current problems started with Obama and something called 'Choice' which, now has been superceded by "VA' (I know, makes little sense). This has all been reported over a year ago. The problem is, basically, not unlike the play with the Post Office, that this administration, and the Republicans, and the Libertarians all want to privatize them both. The obvious plan is to make them both so screwed up there won't be a choice and they are doing a pretty good job at that one. I have heard several folks that work in either place trying to figure out just what the hell is going on and, if they don't know, why would they think somebody else does?

Anyway, back to the subject. I can remember back to Vietnam and then Iraq. I also remember when they got rid of the draft and, in spite of some saying we were turning our military into a group of Mercenaries instead of citizen soldiers, went ahead with it. All that being said the military continues to be underpaid but a great training place for genuine mercenaries which our government tends to hire more of every year. I have friends who have moved to the evil side for the money, incidentally.

The military probably deserves a topic all by itself if folks are going to start talking about it. I have always wondered, for instance, why we seem to have military bases is something in excess of 78 different nations! (and that's just for starters). Then there is the alive and well the industrial/military which is also worthy of examination.

I, incidentally, favor the draft for several reasons. One is that kids learn, in the military one lesson that they don't otherwise. There is ALWAYS somebody bigger, better, faster that can kick your ass. This was a lesson I got and one everybody else gets too and its a worthwhile one I think. I also don't think we would have any 20+ year wars with drafted military. It just wouldn't be allowed! It also provides employment. In many countries there are armies that exist more to get people off the dole than any military reason for instance.

I also had a grandson who died of cancer whilst serving. He was one of the loons who jump out of airplanes, sneak into and out of places, etc. He had 4.5 rows of ribbons on one side and more on the other. He also didn't have all that many stripes because he had mouth problems. AND they killed him and everybody who served with him. I learned that he belonged to a 'bad luck outfit' and everybody in that outfit died of cancer. This one is going on all-the-time and worthy of some time I think.

One can go on and on and on but the military, as a subject seems to me to be worthy of such.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/01/20 07:20 PM

Trump cancelled his "victory" party at his DC hotel - even Trump is knows he's gonna lose and is making these 6 campaign stops a day in the last days fo the election really his Covidpalooza Farewell Tour.

smile
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 12:20 AM
Originally Posted by jgw
The VA is in terrible shape and that is not really the problem. The current problems started with Obama and something called 'Choice' which, now has been superceded by "VA' (I know, makes little sense). This has all been reported over a year ago. The problem is, basically, not unlike the play with the Post Office, that this administration, and the Republicans, and the Libertarians all want to privatize them both. The obvious plan is to make them both so screwed up there won't be a choice and they are doing a pretty good job at that one. I have heard several folks that work in either place trying to figure out just what the hell is going on and, if they don't know, why would they think somebody else does?

Anyway, back to the subject. I can remember back to Vietnam and then Iraq. I also remember when they got rid of the draft and, in spite of some saying we were turning our military into a group of Mercenaries instead of citizen soldiers, went ahead with it. All that being said the military continues to be underpaid but a great training place for genuine mercenaries which our government tends to hire more of every year. I have friends who have moved to the evil side for the money, incidentally.

The military probably deserves a topic all by itself if folks are going to start talking about it. I have always wondered, for instance, why we seem to have military bases is something in excess of 78 different nations! (and that's just for starters). Then there is the alive and well the industrial/military which is also worthy of examination.

I, incidentally, favor the draft for several reasons. One is that kids learn, in the military one lesson that they don't otherwise. There is ALWAYS somebody bigger, better, faster that can kick your ass. This was a lesson I got and one everybody else gets too and its a worthwhile one I think. I also don't think we would have any 20+ year wars with drafted military. It just wouldn't be allowed! It also provides employment. In many countries there are armies that exist more to get people off the dole than any military reason for instance.

I also had a grandson who died of cancer whilst serving. He was one of the loons who jump out of airplanes, sneak into and out of places, etc. He had 4.5 rows of ribbons on one side and more on the other. He also didn't have all that many stripes because he had mouth problems. AND they killed him and everybody who served with him. I learned that he belonged to a 'bad luck outfit' and everybody in that outfit died of cancer. This one is going on all-the-time and worthy of some time I think.

One can go on and on and on but the military, as a subject seems to me to be worthy of such.
There's four or five retired military around me where I live, you might say my community is a retired military community. All are happy with the care they receive at the VA. I also have a grandson who served with the 1st ID in Afghanistan, wounded and the VA takes great care of him. The biggest problem or complaint is the length of time it takes to get into the system.

But your opinion is duly noted. A lot of folks have died while on the wait list, that is for sure. But this problem has been around ever since I can remember. It just doesn't get any media attention. Another problem is sometimes one has to travel a long way to be seen if there isn't a VA facility in your area.

All I can say is as far as I'm concerned, it's not the care received, it's all that darn paperwork and rigmarole one has to go through just to get into the system which can take years.

Everyone has an opinion, but I'm satisfied with the VA.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 12:23 AM
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Trump cancelled his "victory" party at his DC hotel - even Trump is knows he's gonna lose and is making these 6 campaign stops a day in the last days fo the election really his Covidpalooza Farewell Tour.

smile
LOl, with close to half the country already voted, seems kind of like a waste of time, energy and money. If the polls are close to accurate, there's only around 7% of the electorate either in the undecided or stating they'll vote third party column. Not much left to convince them to vote for you.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 12:34 AM
There is some evidence independents are not voting. So despite the polls which say the independents lean to Biden, doesn't matter where you "lean" if you don't vote.

<=== still not convinced
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 03:26 AM

Have a look inside the deeply disturbed mind of a MAGAt: crazy


https://jonmcnaughton.com/maga-ride...ee-canvas-print-signed-and-numbered-200/


https://jonmcnaughton.com/legacy-of-hope-10x15-litho/


https://jonmcnaughton.com/hold-the-blue-line-16x20-canvas-giclee-limited-edition-s-n-edition-200/
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 04:26 AM
Quote
Have a look inside the deeply disturbed mind of a MAGAt

Oh, no. That's a place I don't go. I don't understand it, I don't approve of it, and I want it to go away. Tuesday the entire house of cards is going to crumble. It's going to be snuffed out like a candle.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 12:43 PM
don't be so quick to dismiss the Trump phenomenon.


The rabid Trump supporters we all see in news pics and interviews were and remain the base of the Republican party. There is no reason to suspect or believe that all the qualities which make up that base will disappear overnight should the current occupant of the WH be removed by whatever means. These folks are here t stay for a long time.

Their power may be diminished but their presence will continue to be felt by Republican office holders for many years.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 01:44 PM
Independents certainly don't show up at the polls in the same percentages of Democrats and Republicans. It's like a horse race with the Democrats and Republicans owning the horses running, independents only come to bet on the horses if they feel like it. Their stake in the race is a lot less than the owners of the horses. My analogy of it anyway.

From 2016 Democrats made up 31% of the electorate, but made up 36% of those who actually voted. Republicans made up 27% of the electorate, but 33% of those who actually voted. Independents made up 40% of the electorate, but just 31% of those who voted. History shows Republicans and Democrats are over represented among those who get out and vote, independents way under represented. But it's independents own fault. Then again, since most of them had no say in who the nominees would be, their stake is less. They're being asked to bet or choose between two candidates they didn't have a voice in choosing, a Fait Accompli. Perhaps one could say their attachment to the two candidates is purely as a spectator, some a fan of the sport, some not. Very different than being the owner of the team or a player on the team.

The numbers from 2016 are pretty much average for previous elections, Republicans and Democrats made up 58% of the electorate, but 69% of those who actually voted. Independents 40%, but as I stated, just 31% of those who voted.

Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 03:25 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
...The rabid Trump supporters we all see in news pics and interviews were and remain the base of the Republican party. There is no reason to suspect or believe that all the qualities which make up that base will disappear overnight should the current occupant of the WH be removed by whatever means. These folks are here t stay for a long time.
Indeed. Those folks will never "recover" from mental illness, they'll just have to learn how to live and cope and manager their mental illness.

smile
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 06:03 PM
Uhmmm....

Hope Never Dies

Is there a difference?....
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/02/20 06:33 PM
Couple of things. I too am happy with the care at the
VA and was not implying that it was bad. I have really never had a problem with them and I have been going there for a very long time. What I was talking about is that it is getting really screwed up. I also have medicare and try to have all doctor charges to to that. If the VA gets involved its a total and complete mess for the VA and the local doctors. Same with medications. I have choices. I have a local skin doctor and I could drive to Seattle (about 4 hours). I goto the local doctor. He prescribes for me and then sends it to the VA. The starting gun is that the VA is not sure what to do with it. The trick is finding the right person, not always easy. If you talk to your friends they will probably tell you stories as well.

Getting into the system just takes time. I have another friend who never signed up with the VA, until recently. Because, I think, there was a time when you needed to have a disability but, now, if you served you can join up. Just figure it will take a minimum of about 6 months but its always been that way. Just hunker down and you will get there.

I am a little confused about a wait list. My grandson was serving when he died. They spent, literally, millions trying to keep him alive but couldn't. He didn't have to wait for anything and they sent him to the best doctors they could find. He did have interesting times. One time he came home after getting blowed up and he was carrying a bag of some of the stuff they pulled out of him. The TSA wouldn't let him keep that stuff because it wasn't right and took it away before he could board the plane. You know, little irritants just to prove they were A-holes. Another time he got blowed up and, amongst other offenses, he had a hole through his hand about 2 inches round. They put on a bandage, and back on the line in two days. (he always had interesting things to report)

Again, if you served and have no disability, you can still join up. It just takes time and patience but its really worth it as you get older and need prescriptions filled and are not rich. I never had a problem. I went to the VA one day, years ago, and asked them what I had to do. They took my information and asked me to wait. In about 20 minutes they came back and told me I was already signed up! I have never understood how that even happened and was just grateful.

Oh, once you are in its always been dandy. they put an office, with, I think, several nurses (not sure if there is a doctor there or not) but they are handy, always nice, and easy to talk to.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/03/20 02:26 AM
Thanks, I probably misunderstood or misread.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/03/20 04:43 AM
Welp, tomorrows the big game. One wonders if Trump will do in the general what the Dems did in Iowa. It would have a certain ironic continuity to the year, as it’s gone so far.

Good luck everybody!









Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/03/20 01:39 PM
I heard Brunhilde in the wings clearing her throat. She has entered the stage .... but it is not her time to sing.

I still feel it's a 50-50 despite the fact the first polling station to report has it Biden 5 ... Trump 0.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/03/20 03:31 PM
Totally agree.
Many aspects of 2020 remind me of 16’.
Posted By: jgw Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/03/20 06:08 PM
One other thought on the VA. This is a perception of mine and may be wrong but, so far, its been true. Every officer equal to, or over, colonel or commander (full bird) seem to automatically be gifted with the VA. I always thought that was interesting.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/03/20 07:44 PM
I never heard that about the VA. But I wouldn't doubt it.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/04/20 02:58 PM
I wonder if it is TOO LATE to be talking about 2024!!!!!!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/04/20 03:18 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
I wonder if it is TOO LATE to be talking about 2024!!!!!!
I'd say too early. Biden will win although it's closer than I thought. I didn't expect Pennsylvania to go fairly big for Trump once it is called.

The senate is still 50-50 on which party controls it. With 23 Republicans this year defending their seats vs. 12 for the Democrats, the Democrats should have picked up the senate this year.The House is safe Democratic.

2022 will provide another excellent opportunity for the Democrats to take control of the senate if they don't do so this year. There's 22 Republicans up for reelection in 2022 vs just 12 Democrats. Then 2024 reverses that. 23 Democrats vs. 10 Republicans.

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/04/20 03:50 PM
I don't follow the dynamics of political power but I heard a commentator say something to the effect Democrats were more than a little stunned by the large differential between polling and the results of voting. I would say they should be. It suggests to me the country may be trending more to some nationalistic ideal of white perceptions of disenfranchisement by changing demographics. I concluded these folks are incapable of adapting to a changing world. That should remind folks of the status of dinosaurs ... adapt or suffer the consequences.

So again I suspect Democrats and liberals in general have an uphill battle in the coming years, the changes they propose should be considered by those folks unwilling or incapable of changing.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/04/20 05:04 PM
I can be just as happy with Trump instead of Biden. Democrats will likely take the Senate in 2022 and the presidency in 2024. With Biden at the helm neither of those things would happen.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/04/20 09:57 PM
Biden has won Michigan and Wisconsin giving him 264 electoral votes. Remaining are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada. Trump has a slight lead in all of them except Nevada which won't resume counting until tomorrow. If Trump takes Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, very possible, he would end up with 268 electoral votes. Nevada would be the deciding state. In Nevada, Biden leads Trump by 8,000 votes with 25% left to be counted.

Senate wise, Collins surprised everyone by winning in Maine along with Ernst in Iowa. I figured those two states would go Democratic. So with the 2 Georgia races, North Carolina and Michigan still to be decided, the GOP has a 49-47 advantage. The Georgia Special will go to a runoff election on 5 Jan 2021, so we won't know who won that seat until then. Republican Purdue in Georgia has a 160,000 vote lead with 7% of the vote remaining to be counted. In North Carolina, Tillis leads by 93,000 votes with 6% left to be counted. Chances are the Republican incumbent wins both. Democrat Peters leads in Michigan by 15,000 votes with 4% remaining to be counted.

Purdue, Georgia, must achieve 50% plus one vote to avoid a runoff in January, so far he's at 50.4%. It also looks like the Democrats will lose 5-10 seats in the house, no big deal, they have plenty of seats that they can easily afford that. But that along with the senate makes this one weird election. Nothing normal about it.

Who would have thought Trump would make gains among minorities while Biden gained among whites.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/05/20 03:30 AM
Originally Posted by perotista
Who would have thought Trump would make gains among minorities while Biden gained among whites.

I saw those numbers being reported last night. I wonder if they are %’s of votes cast in person or have they been updated with the mail-in’s? Not that it’s unreasonable given the Democrats taking their votes for granted over the years. Just wondering if the numbers are being updated with the ballots being counted.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/05/20 02:03 PM
Something about the presidential politics has just not been adding up for me. The recurring root question is, “Why does anybody fall for the obvious con that is the substance of Trump?” All those lies, the divisive, self-serving rhetoric, the complete absence of ethics and honesty.

Apparently, the answer is charisma, which functions independently of facts and rational thinking. That’s why FARTs (facts and rational thinking) are like the proverbial farts in the wind when it comes to analyzing the enigma that is Trump.

There are many forms of charisma, and varying levels. Obama has a good measure of the good kind, I think. Reagan had quite a bit, good mixed with bad (in my opinion). The Bush boys were near zero, but their opponents were were charismatic black holes of policy wonkery. B. Clinton had it, H. Clinton did not. It has been said here that the masses vote for who they like emotionally, but most of us here are of the wonkish and intellectual breed (elitists, according to the charismatics?) and while we can acknowledge the power of charisma, we don’t really believe it.

Summing up this election, I’d say that the only reason Biden is narrowly on top is that he has a bit of fatherly and nice charisma, doing battle against Trump’s dark and fearful kind. I’ll go out on a limb here (but not far enough to engage in argument) and speculate that Bernie may have done better against Trump because he has more charisma and wields it with some power.

I’ll post a couple of links when I get on my real computer.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/05/20 02:12 PM
archetypal far right charismatic leader
Quote
His language, stoking anger before allowing his audience to discharge their emotions in a release of indignation, liberating them to break taboos for themselves, was potent. It reflected his now well-established affective bond over his supporters. For them, Trump is seen as no ordinary politician. Whereas others are corrupt or get bogged down in procedure and detail, he projects a bigger picture. While others prevaricate and make excuses, he battles established elites and, if you believe the hype, even gets things done.

In other words Trump is a populist, as he claims to be the voice of the long-ignored people. He is also a nativist, as he speaks only for certain sections of American society while assuming others are, somehow, not American. This is a far cry from Republican presidents such as Ronald Reagan, whose final speech in office powerfully articulated the idea that anyone could become American. Trump is also a charismatic leader. His appeal comes from the vision. It is mythic, not rational. While this does not make him a fascist, it certainly makes him a far-right leader.
Trump's charisma
Quote
Charisma, according to Weber, is a quality of the individual personality that sets them aside from ordinary men and women, so that they are ‘treated as endowed with ... exceptional powers or qualities’. Charisma supplements other forms of political power such as bureaucracy (Trump’s ‘deep state’), plutocracy and aristocracy (strong in Weber’s time and perpetuated in the US in the legacy practices of elite universities). Writing in Germany during the First World War, Weber did not believe that traditional democratic values, such as equality and inclusion, could explain the politics of what he called ‘mass-states’ or ‘leader-democracies’, such as Germany, Britain, France and the United States. Rather, such states generate charismatic leaders capable of strong and independent direction, both to allow mass democracy to flourish, and to fulfil their geopolitical role. According to Weber, the charismatic leader has three qualities, all of which Trump exemplifies, and all of which the Democrats misunderstand.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/05/20 02:30 PM
Ya gotta admit, our culture has been channeled and streamlined to respond to emotion and impulse when making decisions. It's what marketing is all about. And Trump is the quintessential image of the modern major marketing man - no substance, no ethics, no morals - all greed, emotion, and impulse. And people have been buying it in bulk. The top product he sells is fear of "The Other".

It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that emotion and impulse.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/05/20 07:20 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Originally Posted by perotista
Who would have thought Trump would make gains among minorities while Biden gained among whites.

I saw those numbers being reported last night. I wonder if they are %’s of votes cast in person or have they been updated with the mail-in’s? Not that it’s unreasonable given the Democrats taking their votes for granted over the years. Just wondering if the numbers are being updated with the ballots being counted.
I don't know, this is what the BBC was reporting. I'll wait until CNN conducts all its exit polling as they poll over 25,000 people.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/05/20 07:24 PM
Okay, here's a more in depth exit polling show the shifts from 2016 to 2020.

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/11/politics/election-analysis-exit-polls-2016-2020/

As you can see the shift in blacks and Latino's. This isn't the final, but it is interesting to compare the shifts from 2016 to 2020.
The charisma thing is exactly why I said the Democrats should have run George Cloony, back in 2016. He has way more raw charisma than Trump, and is actually a very successful businessman with no history of bankruptcies, ripping off people working with him, association with pedophiles, lawsuits or payoffs for sexual offences, etc.

He also has a lovely, very intelligent wife with no history of nude modelling.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 12:57 AM
No argument from me there!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 01:23 AM
I get laughed at a lot whenever I bring up the charisma thing on another site. But look at some history.
1976 Carter was the down home boy, that's good. Both Jimmy and Ford didn't really have much charisma. Carter won'
1980 Reagan had charisma up the ying yang, he won big over the down home boy who didn't have charisma.
1984 Again it was the charismatic Reagan over the non charismatic Mondale.
1988 Neither Bush nor Dukakis had any charisma. Dukakis might have won if he'd stayed out of that tank. He looked plain silly.
1992 Our boy Bill Clinton was very charismatic, he won easily over the non-charismatic Bush.
1996 Charismatic Bill all the way of a dour Dole.
2000 Once again a down home boy was pitted against a statue. The Statue lost.
2004 Statue number II lost to down home boy II. Bush over Kerry
2008 Obama once again brought charima to the fore front winning easily over a not very charismatic McCain.
2012 Charismatic Obama once again wins over a not charismatic Romney.
2016 I don't call Trump charismatic. Others do, I call him an obnoxious, egotistical opportunist. but he did win over an aloof, elitist Hillary. I suppose one could say Trump had a bit more charisma than Hillary being a TV reality show personality.
2020 Obnoxious vs. adult. The adult will soon be declared the winner. This election was all about Trump, I'm shocked he did so good. He made it close when I thought it would be an easy 5-8 point win.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 03:59 AM
Quote
I thought it would be an easy 5-8 point win.

So did I. But I never really felt certain of it. Because Joe Biden is such a schmuck.

And Harris has the charisma of a wet mop.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 04:28 AM
Quote
I don't call Trump charismatic. Others do, I call him an obnoxious, egotistical opportunist.
Of course narcissists (please type it as it is .... he is a narcissist, far more noxious than an egotistical opportunist) are obnoxious, but that doesn't mean they can not be charismatic. I mean have to seen his rallys??? He is the leader of a cult. Of course he is charismatic. If he told them to die for him, they would. Check out their covid response. Higher rates in counties which went Trump.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 10:20 AM
Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
I don't call Trump charismatic. Others do, I call him an obnoxious, egotistical opportunist.
He is the leader of a cult. Of course he is charismatic. If he told them to die for him, they would. Check out their covid response. Higher rates in counties which went Trump.
I wouldn’t, on my own, call Trump charismatic, I guess I have mentally reserved the meaning with a positive connotation. But in searching for an explanation for why such an obviously terrible person could have the effect he does on so many people, charisma is the only answer, as described in the linked articles. Trump is a disease, a psychological virus that about 50% of the voting public has contracted.

One place I read that his effect will quickly subside when the exposure is reduced. It will be interesting to see if that is the case. It was also said that the strength of his power over the minds of the gullible would fade during a second term, if he got one.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 12:15 PM
Quote
It was also said that the strength of his power over the minds of the gullible would fade during a second term
I don't know who is saying that, but I suspect they do not understand the impact of a cult leader on the followers. These folks are not just gullible, they are people in search of something to believe, something to be their voice in a world which is bypassing them, because they can not adapt to change. As long as Mr Trump continues to spew the message in which they believe, they will follow. His base is the same base which has supported Republicans for the last 50 years. Those Republicans leaders have always denied who the base is, but it was clear to everyone who and what they are. These are folks who have no ideology. They are really not Republicans. They are the dispossessed peoples who can not accept what is happening, and happening too rapidly for them to analyze.

There is an infamous story about a Haitian dictator who once, while a european diplomat was visiting the fort overlooking Port au Prince, ordered one of his soldiers standing on the parapets to jump to his death. These are the Trump supporters. They are willing to die for him if he so ordered ... masks
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 01:30 PM
I wouldn't classify Trump as being charismatic, at least in the normal sense of the meaning of being charismatic. But there's definitely an attraction there.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 02:26 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
\ As long as Mr Trump continues to spew the message in which they believe, they will follow.
I believe this is the point of the author, who is a cult expert. The mind control of the leader depends heavily upon consistent and continuous exposure. In the instance of Trump losing the bully pulpit, that control will diminish to a point below the threshold.

If he got a second term, the author predicts that the root messaging would go stale, especially when coupled with failure of the mythology to come to pass.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 03:26 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I wouldn't classify Trump as being charismatic, at least in the normal sense of the meaning of being charismatic. But there's definitely an attraction there.
Lots of assh*les are "charismatic".

Satan himself is charismatic...it's not a compliment, it's an uncanny ability to get people to admire you for no reason at all.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 04:23 PM
Definition - exercising a compelling charm which inspires devotion in others.

There's nothing charming about Trump, Now that the adjective definition. Used as a noun - quality of leadership derived from personality.

If the latter, a good many people must love an obnoxious, uncouth, raunchy personality.
Jim Jones was charismatic as Hell: When he asked all his followers to line up for cyanide KoolAid, very very few bugged out for the jungle. Like a handful. Trump is essentially the same guy. His followers are willing to die for him. (No masks and packed rallies.) They believe every tweet or statement, even if they contradict a previous one. They believe he is immune to error or the laws, like papal infallibility.

I think we have a lot of deprogramming to do over the next few years. Maybe we should just start forming group therapy sessions now. When one of them does something crazy, they get diverted into a group led by a real psychologist.

Or we can just implement the Republican solution and issue them all fake headsets, so when they wander down the street talking to the voices in their heads, people will think they are talking on their cell phones.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 08:11 PM
Will this be the takeaway?
Trump is the political pied piper that led voters astray from the approved path by playing his charisma flute?

Couldn't be anything else in the political economy?

Hooo boy!
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 11:49 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Will this be the takeaway?

Couldn't be anything else in the political economy?
I think it should be one takeaway. Do you think there is only one takeaway?
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/06/20 11:55 PM
I think 2016 and the election of Trump has to be placed into the context of 2016 when both parties nominated the least like candidates in our history. At least since Pew Research and Gallup started keeping track of these things. Here's the list

Highest to lowest favorable/unfavorable ratings of each major party presidential candidate.
Favorable/unfavorable
1956 Eisenhower 84/12%
1964 LBJ 81/13%
1976 Carter 81/16%
1960 JFK 80/14%
1960 Nixon 79/16%
1968 Nixon 79/22%
1976 Ford 79/20%
1972 Nixon 76/21%
1968 Humphrey 72/28%
1984 Reagan 70/30%
1980 Carter 68/32%
1984 Mondale 66/34%
1980 Reagan 64/31%
1992 Bill Clinton 64/33%
2008 Obama 62/35%
2012 Obama 62/37%
1956 Stevenson 61/31%
2004 G.W. Bush 61/39%
2008 McCain 60/35%
1992 G.H.W. Bush 59/40%
2000 G.W. Bush 58/38%
2004 Kerry 57/40%
1996 Bill Clinton 56/42%
1988 G.H.W. Bush 56/39%
2000 Gore 55/43%
2012 Romney 55/43%
1972 McGovern 55/41%
1996 Dole 54/45%
1988 Dukakis 50/45%
1964 Goldwater 43/47%
2016 Hillary Clinton 38/56%
2016 Donald Trump 36/60%


Hillary and Trump have the honor of being seen unfavorably by over half of all America. Even Barry Goldwater back in 1964 wasn't seen as negative as both Trump and Clinton were. They are also the only two major party candidates to be seen by less than 40% of all America favorably. Another honor bestowed on Trump and Hillary.

I'll add Biden and Trump 2020 to the list once I receive it.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 12:53 AM
Russia!
Russia!
Russia!

Wasn’t that the last explanation Libs seized on for the last 3 1/2 years? You think their not out shopping excuses as we type?

They’re already diminishing expectations becuz Republicans! They play to lose. They suppress ideas or options.

Yeah, it helps to have charisma to move product. You still need to have a product to sell. 2016- ‘America’s already great!’
2020- ‘nothing will fundamentally change’

At least Trump has something to sell. It helps. Democrats aren’t selling anyone anything by design.









Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 01:26 AM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
At least Trump has something to sell. It helps. Democrats aren’t selling anyone anything by design.
Are you saying that Trump and the Reeps’ total lack of a platform is more to sell than Biden and the Dems’ platform?

I think the selling is more of a distinguishing feature than the platforms.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 02:29 AM
What was the Biden platform cept a restoration of norms and values people are fed up with?

Nothing will change... C’mon man!

I agree that Trump was pretty sloppy as an incumbent during a pandemic killing thousands, displacing millions of jobs, Looming homelessness, etc., The fact that it was this close says volumes about the Democratic Party as largely ineffectual and out of touch and only wants to talk to one another.

Joe Biden’s a creep and corporate schill that was favored by party insiders. People are sick of party insiders. Especially the openly corrupt types like Biden. Democrats proved Trumps criticism of themselves and the system and allowed him to run as an outsider again to his base.

In short, Democrats and their embrace of neoliberalism has left it unable to mount a strong opposition to a populist right alternative to it. All they can do is limit available options so that they are the default alternative to the neofascism that’s growing as a reaction to their decades of neoliberal policies.

Thinking the problems of Democrats to mount an opposition to Trumps right populist messaging as a lack of charisma is, IMO, more blame shifting away from the deep structural flaws of their party and their own inability to recognize it.








Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 04:35 AM
Sorry, man. I really don't know what you are hoping to accomplish with your approach to talking about this stuff. I agree that the Dems need a lot of work. What do you suggest as a strategy?

It is true, I believe, even though I find it disgusting, that crass salesmanship (aka "charisma") plays a major role in winning elections. Hot political salesmen are rarely selling good policy, though. And most voters are not geniuses at making the best choices. Such is life.

I don't know how humans survive as a species. My bet is that we won't.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 04:47 AM
Yes I would believe that if it were true or valid, but that is not the reality of a Trump supporter. They believe the message has been implemented, everything you can display as evidence to the contrary, they would simply say ... liberal fake news.

You can't win talking to these folks.

O and the other thing about saturation .... that was one of the things I mentioned 4 years ago, whether Mr Trump would consume the whole of media reporting. I think it was his plan (if a narcissist has a plan) to get as many column inches as possible as a metric for quantifying how much people love him. I'll let you be the judge whether he was successful in getting the inches.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 12:10 PM
Originally Posted by rporter314
You can't win talking to these folks.

Beg to disagree

'I Mostly Listen': Offering Bluepri...ts Powerful GOP Incumbent in Rural Maine

More detail about the house race losses will keep coming in but one thing that was noticed was how the losers did not support Medicare for all. Not saying it’s a magic bullet for victory just one bit of information.


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 12:21 PM
Somewhere in these 200+ pages I’ve given suggestions repeatedly. I’m over that now as I believe it’s a fools errand.
You wanna believe it all comes down to charisma? Be my guest. I just wanted to pushback on the idea that all it will take to win is a crappy politics wrapped in a shiny wrapper like George Clooney.
Democrats got their win didn’t they? What were you hoping for? Wasn’t that the point of the last 4 years? To be rid of Trump? Isn’t that all that liberals went on about and the party spent its time trying to accomplish thru impeachment hearings and obsessing with his scandals?
I don’t understand what the problem for you is exactly.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 12:49 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Somewhere in these 200+ pages I’ve given suggestions repeatedly. I’m over that now as I believe it’s a fools errand.
You wanna believe it all comes down to charisma? Be my guest. I just wanted to pushback on the idea that all it will take to win is a crappy politics wrapped in a shiny wrapper like George Clooney.
Democrats got their win didn’t they? What were you hoping for? Wasn’t that the point of the last 4 years? To be rid of Trump? Isn’t that all that liberals went on about and the party spent its time trying to accomplish thru impeachment hearings and obsessing with his scandals?
I don’t understand what the problem for you is exactly.
I’d say the reason you don’t understand what the problem for me, exactly, is mostly that you think my problem is what you frame it to be. Trying to discuss anything outside of your frame is just like trying to have a conversation with a Trumper.

On the topic of what you think needs to be done about fixing the Dems, claiming that you already did that in the past as an excuse for avoiding doing it now is a particularly pointless dodge. Maybe you did a poor job of making your case before, or maybe things have changed in some way since then, or maybe my ability to grok your meaning has improved - the point being that communication is an ever evolving endeavor, no matter how much we wish that a thing could be said once and the whole world would understand. The fact is, we humans do a very poor job of communicating with each other, which may be the top problem now and forever.

Just saying...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 01:19 PM
Sorry, what did you say the problem for you was exactly?

That Charisma is a problem on the far right for having to much of it and a problem on the left for having to little?

If that’s incorrect would you state the problem again?
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 02:06 PM
I think I'm narrowing in on the "problem". The current hypothesis is that you aren't really interested in any sort of discussion or exchange of ideas. I will respect your wishes.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 02:12 PM
I know of no one who reads the platforms of the parties or bases their vote on what the two party's platform says. I would say 90% of Americans don't know what a political party platform is outside of political junkies.

I'm still trying to get my head around the idea Trump is charismatic. He isn't in my definition of the word, but may be with others. He's a rude, obnoxious, third grade schoolyard bully. If that is how being charismatic is described, so be it.

Yeah, Biden was a total, old, bland white guy with no charisma. That was enough. It's just a matter of time before it's official. Bland vs. Obnoxious, Bland won.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 02:49 PM
If you can find a better word than charisma, I'm in.

Looking around at a few articles on the web I do see that charisma is often used, even for negative personalities. Here is an interesting one, with a statement on the difference (found in a comment on the article): The Psychology of Cult Leaders
Quote
Thoughts on Cult Leaders. We know genuine charisma has elements of morality in it. Pseudo-charisma is the combination of personality traits that mimic true charisma and therefore can be very dangerous for a leader to possess (PSY, 533). Cult leaders have very typical traits: a grandiose idea of who they are and what they can achieve; demand blind unquestioned obedience; require excessive admiration; have a sense of entitlement; are exploitive of others and put others at risk frequently – financially, physically, and mentally; are arrogant and haughty in behavior and attitude; have exaggerated sense of power that frequently results in breaking laws; they take sexual advantage of cult members; they humiliate and devalue members to deliberately make them feel inferior, incapable and not worthy; they ignore the needs of others, including biological, physical, and emotional; and they treat people as though they are objects to be used, manipulated or exploited for personal gain (Navarro, 2012).
One observation about charm - many of Trump's followers don't see him as an a$$hole, they really do think he is charming.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:06 PM
Your acting smug and condescending that I don’t agree with your assessment of the problem. Fine. Have at it.

To me, it’s another tired conversation of finding solutions to a problem in the wrong area. To say that almost half the voters are captive to the siren call of ‘charisma’ is obtuse and feels a little like cranium racism.

Also, weren’t you trying to have it both ways? Was the discussion just proposing that Trump has the ‘wrong’ and ‘dangerous’ kind of cult charisma while the Dems need to get them some ‘good’ and ‘constructive’ charisma?

If that the argument your making, I would say your on shaky ground to prove this claim.


This argument was raised soon after Trump was elected, BTW, but was abandoned for the more sellable Russian narrative.

Did that response stay within your acceptable bounds of critique, Log? Was that response appropriate enough for you?
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:16 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Your acting smug and condescending that I don’t agree with your assessment of the problem. Fine. Have at it.
You ignored what I said in previous posts, smugly(?) narrowing my comments to saying that 'charisma' is the only problem.

Why so much hostility to people who mostly agree with you? Weird.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:20 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Something about the presidential politics has just not been adding up for me. The recurring root question is, “Why does anybody fall for the obvious con that is the substance of Trump?” All those lies, the divisive, self-serving rhetoric, the complete absence of ethics and honesty.

Apparently, the answer is charisma, which functions independently of facts and rational thinking. That’s why FARTs (facts and rational thinking) are like the proverbial farts in the wind when it comes to analyzing the enigma that is Trump.

There are many forms of charisma, and varying levels. Obama has a good measure of the good kind, I think. Reagan had quite a bit, good mixed with bad (in my opinion). The Bush boys were near zero, but their opponents were were charismatic black holes of policy wonkery. B. Clinton had it, H. Clinton did not. It has been said here that the masses vote for who they like emotionally, but most of us here are of the wonkish and intellectual breed (elitists, according to the charismatics?) and while we can acknowledge the power of charisma, we don’t really believe it.

Summing up this election, I’d say that the only reason Biden is narrowly on top is that he has a bit of fatherly and nice charisma, doing battle against Trump’s dark and fearful kind. I’ll go out on a limb here (but not far enough to engage in argument) and speculate that Bernie may have done better against Trump because he has more charisma and wields it with some power.

I’ll post a couple of links when I get on my real computer.

I am disagreeing with your statement here. Seems narrow to me...
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:35 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I know of no one who reads the platforms of the parties or bases their vote on what the two party's platform says. I would say 90% of Americans don't know what a political party platform is outside of political junkies.

I'm still trying to get my head around the idea Trump is charismatic. He isn't in my definition of the word, but may be with others. He's a rude, obnoxious, third grade schoolyard bully. If that is how being charismatic is described, so be it.

Yeah, Biden was a total, old, bland white guy with no charisma. That was enough. It's just a matter of time before it's official. Bland vs. Obnoxious, Bland won.

Yeah, Id agree that most people are not as nerdy on politics and only start paying attention a few weeks out from election day.

Think it's safe to say Trump was different. People are not happy with the status quo and are hunting for something else. Both parties were very satisfied with the status quo and while one candidate in 2016 was able to overcome it's parties resistance to change the other parties change candidate was effectively blocked by them. Ditto of course 2020.

What will be interesting is how much of a lasting effect Trump will have on the Republican party? Will it realign with working class voters in a real and sincere way? Or will it revert back to a business party built on a coalition of culture grievance and austerity economics. Something the other party has in common as well,IMO.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:38 PM
Originally Posted by logtroll
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Will this be the takeaway?

Couldn't be anything else in the political economy?
I think it should be one takeaway. Do you think there is only one takeaway?
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:44 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
[quote=logtroll]Something about the presidential politics has just not been adding up for me. The recurring root question is, “Why does anybody fall for the obvious con that is the substance of Trump?” All those lies, the divisive, self-serving rhetoric, the complete absence of ethics and honesty.
See, my original statement was not about why people fall for what Trump promised, but why they believe him when he lies. (He lies about nearly everything, you know.)

When a Dem makes promises, why don't more people believe them? I say charisma is a major factor. Do I want to see a charismatic liar leading the left? No.

Do I think a stellar candidate on the issues can win without charisma? No.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 03:54 PM
Originally Posted by chunkstyle
Originally Posted by perotista
I know of no one who reads the platforms of the parties or bases their vote on what the two party's platform says. I would say 90% of Americans don't know what a political party platform is outside of political junkies.

I'm still trying to get my head around the idea Trump is charismatic. He isn't in my definition of the word, but may be with others. He's a rude, obnoxious, third grade schoolyard bully. If that is how being charismatic is described, so be it.

Yeah, Biden was a total, old, bland white guy with no charisma. That was enough. It's just a matter of time before it's official. Bland vs. Obnoxious, Bland won.

Yeah, Id agree that most people are not as nerdy on politics and only start paying attention a few weeks out from election day.

Think it's safe to say Trump was different. People are not happy with the status quo and are hunting for something else. Both parties were very satisfied with the status quo and while one candidate in 2016 was able to overcome it's parties resistance to change the other parties change candidate was effectively blocked by them. Ditto of course 2020.

What will be interesting is how much of a lasting effect Trump will have on the Republican party? Will it realign with working class voters in a real and sincere way? Or will it revert back to a business party built on a coalition of culture grievance and austerity economics. Something the other party has in common as well,IMO.

Interesting, status quo. that is basically what we got this election with the exception of getting rid of Trump.

Presidency, Biden will be president, democratic gain
Senate democrat's net gain of 1 seat so far. Not much of a gain considering the Republicans had 22 seats up for reelection vs. 12 for the Democrats. Currently it 49-48 GOP with North Carolina and the two Georgia races to be decided. Tillis leads in North Carolina and will win it once the results become official. That leaves the senate 50-48 GOP.
House Democrats lost a net of 6 seats with 30 still to be determined, old house, 237 Democrats, 197 Republican, 1 independent. Current count, 209 Democrat, 196 Republican 30 still to be determined.
State legislature, democrats lost 2 with 2 still to be decided
governorship's democrats lost one.

The above is about as status quo as one can get.

The lasting effect of Trump? I don't know. Usually, once a president leaves office, they tend to fade away. Somehow I think Trump is different. How the Republican Party approaches this, that's up to them.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 04:28 PM
Yep. Not much of a rejection of Trump as Dems would have wanted. Not to mention the polls being way off (again) and some peoples expectations were being shaped by em.

Interesting exit polling on what was popular in the minds of voters and who got votes over it. I'd say that offers some ideas of what was in voters minds.

Just not so sure of some on the suggestions of how they might have got in there, I guess.

Interesting that Democrats that lost in congress wouldn't support MFA. Inconvenient for some that FOX news poll found a good majority supports MFA.....

Realignment?

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 05:03 PM
Haven't found anything on income distribution of voters between the two candidates yet.

College Degrees are still a more important criteria than income. Odd that. Especially as degrees are not as much a gurantee of income as it used to be.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 05:16 PM
Realignment, possible. But in which way? One or both parties? Have independents moved closer to the Democratic Party ideological wise or was their vote just against Trump? Could the Democrats regain some of the folks they lost to the independent column. We'll have to wait and see.

Down ballot, the Democrats didn't do very good or as well as most expected. Down ballot most folks decided to stick with who they had with a slight Republican gain.

I think Biden and the Democrats will do just fine if they go with what popular, what most Americans want and stay away from the rest of their agenda that is unpopular and a majority of Americans don't want. But will the House Democrats let Biden do that? If not, the GOP could regain control of the house in 2022.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 06:53 PM
The AP has called Pennsylvania and Nevada for Biden, 290-214 with Georgia, North Carolina and Alaska still outstanding. Congratulation to old Joe Biden.
The interesting thing with a Republican Senate, is that Biden will not be able to pass any progressive legislation. Just return the nation to normalcy, with the policies and executive orders of the Obama administration. This is actually the political balance of power (Democratic President and divided Congress) that has historically had maximum economic booms. We also have several vaccines coming soon, so the pandemic should be broken.

Pretty much the worst situation for progressives who want immediate change. But obviously what the voters wanted, or they would have given Biden the Senate. Best example is Maine, where Collins won but the state went for Biden hard. The upshot is that Biden won't be able to do anything that promotes a backlash: In a way, not very good for Republicans in 2022. If Biden did get a Democratic Senate in 2022, then maybe he could pass some progressive legislation but I doubt it could get through Congress with such slim majorities.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 09:55 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
The interesting thing with a Republican Senate, is that Biden will not be able to pass any progressive legislation. Just return the nation to normalcy, with the policies and executive orders of the Obama administration. This is actually the political balance of power (Democratic President and divided Congress) that has historically had maximum economic booms. We also have several vaccines coming soon, so the pandemic should be broken.

Pretty much the worst situation for progressives who want immediate change. But obviously what the voters wanted, or they would have given Biden the Senate. Best example is Maine, where Collins won but the state went for Biden hard. The upshot is that Biden won't be able to do anything that promotes a backlash: In a way, not very good for Republicans in 2022. If Biden did get a Democratic Senate in 2022, then maybe he could pass some progressive legislation but I doubt it could get through Congress with such slim majorities.
The senate is still up for grabs, although favored to end up in GOP hands. It's 49-48 GOP at the moment with North Carolina still out. NC has 2% of the votes to be counted with Tillis leading Cunningham by approximately 100,000 votes. I don't see Cunningham overcoming Tillis's lead. Trump leads by around 70,000 votes. What this tells me is you had 30,000 folks who voted for R Tillis in the senate, but for Biden for president.

The two Georgia seats will have a runoff on 5 Jan 2021. So there is still hope for the Democrats to have a 50-50 tie in which VP Harris would be the tie breaker. The Democrats counted on picking up Iowa, Maine and North Carolina which seems they failed in all of them.

The Democrats will still control the house, where they will lose 6-10 seats. Highly unusual for a party to lose house seats when their candidate won the presidency popular vote, it'll be Biden by 5 million votes, perhaps more. The last time a party's candidate won the presidency and lost house seats was in the election of 1884.

Georgia is another state where a lot of folks voted for Biden, but for R Purdue in the senate race. Biden is leading Trump by approximately 7,000 votes, Purdue beat Ossoff by 93,000 votes. But failed to attain the 50% plus one vote to avoid a runoff, he ended up with 49.8% to Ossoff's 47.8%.

Definitely a mixed bag results. The Republicans also picked up one Governorship along with two state legislatures. The GOP under Trump in 2016 also lost seats in the house, but Trump also lost the popular vote.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 10:05 PM
Lots of people voted to get Trump out but aren't very happy with the Democrats would be my guess. Biden was bad for the down ticket races. No enthusiasm for a moldy sock puppet but it's what the party insisted voters had to use against Trump.

Anyway, another pyrrhic victory for Centrist Dems when you consider the congressional districting about to go on. On the other hand, interfering in the primary by party leadership, they might be o.k. with this outcome as well. They can accommodate themselves to the donors without having to do anything for the voters.

If the Dem party was interested in what the voters wanted they wouldn't have rigged the last two of their primaries.

Posted By: Ujest Shurly Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/07/20 10:10 PM
Now onward to turn the Senate.
Actually, maybe Democrats can flip the Senate in the runoff election in January: Don't forget, Biden WON in Georgia. If they could get everybody who voted for Biden to turn in a mail ballot electing the two Democrats, that would do it. Republicans might be demoralized by then and have the low turnout associated with special elections. Especially if they have to go vote in person because of some left-over Trumpyness.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 01:30 AM
Yeah, but that doesn't give you the true scope of things. Republican Purdue beat Democrat Ossoff by 90,000 vote with the Libertarian candidate getting 115,000. Purdue received 49.8% of the vote, Ossoff 48.9 to the Libertarian 2.3%.

Biden won Georgia by 5,000 votes, so there was a lot of ticket splitting. Voting for Biden, then voting Republican for the senate. But come 5 Jan, turnout will be the key. Usually the Libertarian vote comes home to roost with the Republicans in runoff elections if history is any guide.

So which ever party gets their voters to the polls in Jan will decide these two races. I'll make no predictions. The Democrats may be celebrating Biden's victory and fail to show up or the Republicans may be peeved at Trump, way down in the dumps and fail to show up. These two races are pure tossups in my book.
Exactly: It's all about turn-out, and turn-out is a product of the ground game and money. It's just one state, so Democrats could possibly flood the place with door knockers who get people to fill in and mail their absentee ballots. And maybe spend a lot on internet, TV, radio, and billboard ads. They could also send in people to register a lot of folks in advance of that.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 01:47 PM
There was a ton of money from out of state trying to buy Georgia's two senators. I expect that will continue to the tune of 200 million or more.

Along with all the negative personal attacks ads, I really hate the outside the state trying to buy our two senators. I'd like to see an amendment that simply states that if one can't vote for a candidate, then they can't donate.

We'll see what happens, but what you described, the other side will be doing exactly the same thing. I just hate the idea of all the personal negative attack ads dominating the airwaves. Luckily, the Braves season is over. I don't watch much if any live TV.

No predictions from me, it's way too early to determine the mood of Georgians.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 02:39 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I'd like to see an amendment that simply states that if one can't vote for a candidate, then they can't donate.
I have thought the same thing for a long time. When I was a kid, Idaho was a solid blue state - blue collar workers in agriculture, logging, ranching, and mining. By my late teens, the energy industry (mostly Texas oil money, according to reports of the time) had been "buying" senators and representatives, not because they cared about Idaho issues, but because they wanted anti-environment votes in Congress. That money was largely spent on a successful campaign of fear that turned the unions and extractive industry grunts in the unions into Republican supporters. At about the same time there was a huge influx of wealthier Californians, selling out their comparably higher priced properties (4X$) and retiring to the environmentally attractive, less populated, and lower taxed Gem State. That pretty much completed the conversion of Idaho from deep blue to deep red.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 05:17 PM
I'd also like it if out of state candidates would stop begging incessantly for money. Most notably Jaime Harrison and Amy McGrath.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 06:13 PM
I agree with both of you. According to Open Secrets we had one candidate for the senate that made the runoff receiving 80% of his campaign funds from out of state.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 06:37 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
There was a ton of money from out of state trying to buy Georgia's two senators. I expect that will continue to the tune of 200 million or more. .
The problem is the RNC is broke thinks to Donald Trump and Brad Parscale. The DNC isn't. smile
My wife came up with a good strategy for the Democrats in Georgia:

"Want a pandemic stimulus check? An unemployment extension? Vote for both Democratic Senate candidates, because a Republican Senate is going to let you get evicted and starve."
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 07:01 PM
You...

Yes, YOU!

I'm asking you to help with your support to turn back the senate ...

Same in NY. The 'Ditch Mitch' con they ran was everywhere. A doomed senate race but a very successful money raise for the DSCC.

Posted a video of the reconciliation meetings after the 2016 campaign that featured Naomi Konst breathing fire at this grift...

To bad about Booker. They had a shot with him in Kentucky, IMO. Chuck had his medicine show going by then. Booker, too, ran out of runway but his rise in the polling was very good over the course of his primary campaign.

Would what the final haul? $95,000,000 or something like it?
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/08/20 09:52 PM
Originally Posted by perotista
I agree with both of you. According to Open Secrets we had one candidate for the senate that made the runoff receiving 80% of his campaign funds from out of state.
It may be the main reason rural states are red - they are still being mined for their congresscritters. We've has several here in NM recently who also got something like 80% of their campaign cash from out-of-state interests.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/09/20 02:13 PM
It’s occurred to me that the McGrath campaign may have been something other than an honest election bid.
If so, then what was it?
It’s curious that the liberals are now full on embracing the security state, going so far as to run former military and intelligence people for the senate and congress this election. More than the last cycle, I believe.
So if McGrath’s money flowed In from outside of Kentucky, what was hoped for by the people cutting the checks?
Her campaign never looked to be a real threat to McConnell.
There’s been much reporting on the intelligence communities shady dealings in drug and human trafficking in order to help fund off book operations. Ollie North was the rare case made public. Or they do some banana brained eff up, like flying a plane load of coke into a mountain, making news.
The money in the industrial election complex is huge. Would it be a way to launder money as it generates so much revenue? It’s just as nefarious a bizness as prostitution and drug dealing. I would argue more, in terms of death and destruction it generates.
Just spitballing, but if we’re accepting the intelligence community in our news rooms, film studios and now our elected political body, why wouldn’t they avail themselves of the money gorged bribery that takes place in our elections?

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/09/20 05:44 PM
Quote
It’s occurred to me that the McGrath campaign may have been something other than an honest election bid.
So...do I think McGrath is crooked or in the pockets of big corporate donors? Not really. She was just fortunate from a fundraising standpoint to be running against one of the most reviled Senators who has ever lived. There was probably some nefarious fundraising carried out on the back of her campaign though. McGrath will probably run again and has the war chest and face recognition to one day be a US senator.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/09/20 06:24 PM
Was Joe Biden the candidate to beat Trump, perhaps the only one who could?

Nationwide, Biden is faring about 2.4 percentage points better than the average Democratic nominee for House seats, according to an estimate by Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics.

In Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, the Democrats nominated a Bernie Sanders-style candidate — Kara Eastman, who backs “Medicare for all” and was endorsed by progressive groups like the Justice Democrats — for a House seat. She lost her race by almost five percentage points, while Biden won the district by almost seven points.

But there is also a large dose of bad news for Democrats. Despite Trump’s defeat, the Republican Party has retained its popularity in much of the country. A small but crucial segment of Americans chose to vote for both Mr. Biden and Republican congressional candidates.

and more here

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/briefing/alex-trebek-jeopardy-biden-europe.html

A fitting end, if the Democrats have problems, so too does the GOP.

Republicans have a different set of problems. They have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections. They now appear headed toward a messy struggle over who their new national leaders will be — or whether Trump himself will continue to dominate the party.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/09/20 06:32 PM
McGrath was picked by Schumer and the DSCC over Booker. There’s a weeding out process of leftists in the Dem primary. Raised it before here if you recall. She’s part of a cohort of spies and military officers that have been favored by the party organization dwarfing any numbers of insurgent progressives that manage to have won recently.
95 million seems like an insane amount of money to be spending on a hand picked ‘troop’ to run against McConnell. It wasn’t in any way a grass roots ground game like Bookers. Setting aside the Parties eagerness to be a spook and DOD political party, what was all that cash raise doing?
Anyhow, that type of money raise, where it came from, and why so much interest in beating McConnell in such a spectacular failure is interesting. As much as the Dems jumping in bed with the spooks.
One wonders who controls who in these power relationships within the right wing parties.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/09/20 11:37 PM
Being a numbers guy, using the current numbers, percentage of the vote in the house elections, still going on. There were 4,700,000 voters who voted for Biden for president and then voted Republican for their congressman.

That may not sound like much when we're talking close to 150 million votes cast, but it certain is a significant number of ticket splitters. It'll be interesting to see what the final numbers are.

Or one could look at this way, if those 4,700,000 ticket splitters who voted Republican for congress also voted for Trump instead of Biden, Trump would have won reelection. Once the final results are in, it'll be interesting to see exactly who these ticket splitters were. Republicans, independents? Probably most were independents who liked Biden but not the Democrats in congress. Either that or they liked the Republicans in congress and detested Trump. Who knows>



That is just a SWAG.
I think that effect may be mostly independents who have no problem splitting the ticket, with local congressmen who they feel good about, and Trump who they needed to gat rid of. They have no party loyalty, so they vote for candidates they like and against candidates they don't. And Trump did everything possible to piss off everyone not actively kissing his butt.

Is it that hard to appeal to a majority of the folks back home, when you are a congressman or senator? Just avoid getting in the national news, and make several personal appearances in your home district or state, saying all the feel good things they want to hear. Mostly just tell them they are smart and pretty. Try not to say anything that kills anybody's sacred cow, and deliver the bacon when you can.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/10/20 03:50 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I think that effect may be mostly independents who have no problem splitting the ticket, with local congressmen who they feel good about, and Trump who they needed to gat rid of. They have no party loyalty, so they vote for candidates they like and against candidates they don't. And Trump did everything possible to piss off everyone not actively kissing his butt.

Is it that hard to appeal to a majority of the folks back home, when you are a congressman or senator? Just avoid getting in the national news, and make several personal appearances in your home district or state, saying all the feel good things they want to hear. Mostly just tell them they are smart and pretty. Try not to say anything that kills anybody's sacred cow, and deliver the bacon when you can.
I think this pretty much sums it up. With 18 seats still to be determined, the GOP flipped 8 to 3 flips for the Democrats. That a net gain of 5 so far for the GOP. But this was a year when the democrats were expected to gain 5-10 seats in the house and take control of the senate with a net gain of 4-8. The Democrats were expected to pickup Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa at a minimum with the possibility of the two Georgia races.

All I know is Pelosi is peeved at the democrats not being able to pick up their projected 5-10 seats.

I agree, it's probably independents who did most of the ticket splitting. I find it interesting that Democrats made up 31% of the electorate, 37% of those who voted, Republicans 29% of the electorate, 36% of those who voted while independents, 40% of the electorate, only 26% of those who voted. CNN updated their data to reflect Biden won independents 54-41. With the two major parties basically even in the turnout, 37-36, independents accounted for Biden's 5 million or about victory. 95% of republicans voted for Trump, 95% of democrats for Biden.

I wonder if that other 74% of the Independents who failed to vote were progressives who felt Biden and Trump both were too beholding to the rich and corporate donors. Or true conservatives who were too ethical to vote for Trump. That's actually over 29% of the electorate! Enough to throw the race powerfully to either candidate.

Might be interesting for pollsters to ask them. Or maybe they just are morons who don't care or want to avoid jury duty. One of my sister-in-laws uses that excuse.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/10/20 12:34 PM
I noticed the Congress people who lost their seats were all against MFA.
I don’t trust polls and wouldn’t divine the will of people from them.
The credentialed class has, for the moment, relieved themselves of the shock of having been rejected by a Trump victory.
My guess is they’re in for future shocks with their status and ideology further eroded with public rejection of thier class rule. I expect them to become worse than Trump in the future. More authoritarian and crueler than they’ve been.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/10/20 01:17 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I wonder if that other 74% of the Independents who failed to vote were progressives who felt Biden and Trump both were too beholding to the rich and corporate donors. Or true conservatives who were too ethical to vote for Trump. That's actually over 29% of the electorate! Enough to throw the race powerfully to either candidate.

Might be interesting for pollsters to ask them. Or maybe they just are morons who don't care or want to avoid jury duty. One of my sister-in-laws uses that excuse.
That's something we'll probably never know. My son now 51 has also never voted. He just doesn't care, he cares more about whether the Pittsburgh Steelers win or lose than who is president. He told me it doesn't matter at all, that the government is going to do what the government wants to do whether the people want them to do it or not. He considers voting a sham, a way to legitimize government doing exactly what it wants. To make the people think they have a voice in government when in reality they don't. So he doesn't sanction it.

Going back through history one finds those who affiliate with both major parties always have 5-8 points more among those who actually turnout and vote than their share of the electorate. Independents usually around 10 points below their share.

2020, independents made up 40% of the electorate buy just 26% of those who voted. That 14 point difference is a record. in 2016 independents made up 40% while making up 31% of those who voted, more normal ratio.

If you think about it, it makes sense that independents don't turnout in the numbers they represent of the total electorate. Republicans and Democrats choose the candidates, independents don't. Republicans and Democrats have a greater stake in the game, race if you will because it's between their chosen horses, candidates.

Independents are asked to choose between two candidates that others have chosen. Those two candidates aren't their horses, they didn't choose them.
Posted By: logtroll Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/10/20 01:58 PM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
... maybe they just are morons who don't care or want to avoid jury duty.
I think that this describes the largest bloc of voters, regardless of party affiliation.

Thus the need for a candidate with "charisma", in one of its many forms, in order to win an election. This charisma must be good enough to counterbalance both the ugly truths about the candidate, as well as the lies circulated by the opposition. :doh:
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/10/20 05:32 PM
I'm still trying to make sense of this election. Being completely unsuccessful. How in the world can one party win the presidency by around 5 million votes, give or take. Then lose seats in the house, governorship and state legislatures? True the senate is up for grabs depending on what happens on 5 Jan. But it shouldn't be.

Is it possible that this election was a rejection of Trump, but not an acceptance of Democratic Party ideals, especially down at the local and state levels? How on earth could Trump receive more black votes, 12% than any Republican candidate going back to Gerald Ford who received 15% in 1976? Hispanics, 32% for Trump, that's more than any other Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan with the lone exception of G.W. Bush in 2004 who received 40%.

All I can say, this was one crazy election.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/10/20 06:55 PM
polling

The fundamental mathematical tenet on which all polling is based is the selection of a random sample. If a sample is random then the results should be relatively accurate within the MoE. One possibility why in the past two major polling efforts for the general election, has been a failure, is the possibility political polarization has skewed the sampling, and thus inherently introduced bias or or to say another way, inaccurate results.

When the mathematics fail ... I use my spidey sense
Quote
When the mathematics fail ... I use my spidey sense

That's a little too close to Trump using his gut instead of expert advice!

But I'm not really talking about asking a sample of those folks why they didn't vote, thus introducing selection errors. I meant asking all of them. You are not going to get some large consensus. You are going to get a bunch of reasons. The big problem would be people rationalizing some reason when the real reason is just sloth or apathy.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 12:41 AM
It seems the polls were pretty accurate with Biden's percentage. He's be around 49-51% since May. Perhaps a day or two over or a day or two under. It's Trump's numbers that were wrong. Since May he's basically been between 41-44% then boom, he receives 48%. I never seen that coming.

Now I have heard a lot of talk that Trump supporters weren't admitting to the pollsters they were supporting him. Maybe that comes into play.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 03:29 AM
FYI, the Democrats won their 218th seat in the house, clinching control. Current count is 218-201 with 16 still pending or to be called. Old House was 236 Democrats, 198 Republican, 1 Libertarian. Also North Carolina senate race went to the GOP Tillis making that count 50-48 GOP. Pending the two Georgia runoff seats. Old Senate count was 53-47 Republican.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 12:41 PM
Polls aren’t accurate.

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 12:59 PM
I didn’t vote out of personal conscience. I won’t be part of a charade.
I work my ass off outside the corporate sponsored facade of electoral politics.

I’m not alone. The reactionary olds continue to throw scorn at the demands of the young while becoming occupied with political revenge fantasies of their vanquished political foes.
Face book posts are a hot mess of this as it is here.

With so many things that ought to be getting addressed the food fight will not stop between these types. They’ll be throwing food at each other while the whole show goes over the cliff that’s in every direction.

During a global pandemic, the Geriatric factions showered their donors with gold, refuse healthcare for its citizenry, forced its labor capitol back to work in unsafe conditions, have done nothing to further provision citizens for fear of giving the other side in the cafeteria a political point.

One sides a bonafide overt death cult, the other side is simply its covert shadow.

Vote!

Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 02:11 PM
Yes, you could.

People are shopping. There may be a realignment happening, though it would be a populist one and that means one party having to give up it's donor class, somewhat.

It's interesting that the Dems who lost in swing states were against M4A, GND both. Those that hung on were for it.

If Republicans were smart, they have an opening to cement a future for themselves, IMO.
Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 02:13 PM
Seeing some speculation of AOC leaving the Dem party. If so, good for her. All will be forgiven, I'm guessing.


Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 04:31 PM
Being non-affiliated, I really don't care what either party does or how they go about adjusting or realignment. My advice since independents are growing and the major parties losing folks, at least per the percentages.

I'd see what I could do to regain those who once were a member of the party. This goes for both major parties. Most who left both parties tend to lean toward them in their voting habits unless they angry at the party they left.

Now I look at these things more from a political strategist eyes. How to win elections, how to achieve the possible political goals without over doing it to where you make these non-affiliated folks angry and toss you out of office come the next election. There are certain issues where most Americans are for, concentrate on those first and leave the divisive issues alone for a later day.

Or if not left alone, go slowly with small steps as not to make folks angry or take too many out of their comfort zone. What could Obama have accomplished if he left the divisive ACA alone, he had good majorities in both chambers. Immigration Reform, easily done, Making DACA permanent legislation, yes. Legislation on the environment, government reform, tax reform, race relation, education and more all could have been approached and probably have passed.

But Obama and the Democrats were stuck on the ACA during his first two years with basically no time to take on other issues. Then during Obama's last 6 years he and the Democrats were too busy defending the ACA to try to get anything else accomplished.

Old beans, I know. There was a reason for the Democrats control of the house for 40 straight years and 58 out of 62. They took their time in pushing thing that were divisive. Only when they were sure most Americans would accept it or that it was needed, did they dive in and get it passed.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 05:16 PM
Quote
There was a reason for the Democrats control of the house for 40 straight years and 58 out of 62. They took their time in pushing thing that were divisive.
More than a bit misleading.

Since 1981 the Democrats have had control of both houses for only 12 years, and of those years had a sympathetic president for only 4 years. So perhaps you can explain how any party can accomplish anything without compromise or complete control of government. Of course in the old days the parties would compromise, but not today. So the only example of almost equal quality would be the 4 years in the last 25.

I think people are delusional to think believe, rationalize, or in any other manner conclude Republicans would be willing to compromise on anything. You may say but so also the Democrats. And I would respond consider the issues. If the issues are BS, I would agree but I rather suspect when you analyze the issues they are pressing and more than important both for the American people and for national security. Republicans ignoring the issues is not a solution.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 05:20 PM
Quote
I'd see what I could do to regain those who once were a member of the party.
That would require necromancy which we, as ethical humans, are sworn not to employ. Those people are dead. As new voters register they simply do not choose a party. Because neither party appeals to them.
And thus the number of independents grows.

People seldom actually change parties or re-register as non partisan.

That's my theory anyway, that partisan politics is going to die a slow painful death.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 06:04 PM
Point well taken. But I was pointing to the fact the Democrats were able to control the house, the peoples house for 58 out of 62 years. As for the senate it was 52 out of 62 which ended in 1994. That was probably the end of the old political era. Our modern era of polarization, mega, ultra, high partisanship I believe started with the Hastert rule in the House and spread from there.

So 1999 for me is the dividing line. 1999 the senate leaders were Daschle and Lott who worked together as did Mitchell and Dole prior. Then Reid and McConnell entered the senate as leaders and it was all partisanship from that point on in the senate.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 06:16 PM
I was reading an article from Rasmussen Reports that stated most people made up their minds who they would be voting for last year. I really don't trust Rasmussen much, so I check CNN's exit polling. They didn't go into last year but had the following.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...urce=criticalimapct&utm_medium=email

Before September 73%
In September 11%
In October 8%
In the last week 2%
In the last couple of days 3%.

So perhaps Rasmussen was correct that a majority of Americans knew who they would be voting for last year. Either for or against Trump anyway.

Rasmussen also stated 28% of all Americans weren't confident that their vote would be counted accurately. CNN exit poll differs on this 86% confident, 12% not confident. So take your choice. I prefer CNN as I previously stated I don't trust Rasmussen that much.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results
I suspect Rasmussen's polling oversamples Republicans, so finding more of their sample lacking confidence in their vote being counted just is a product of who they are. All of Trump's devotees would believe that, so all they are measuring is the percentage of Trump devotees in their sample. I'm kind of surprised their number is that low!
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/11/20 08:20 PM
Rasmussen leans Republican for sure. Nate Silver 538 has ratings of pollsters, They have Rasmussen leaning Republican by 1.5 points. SSRS does CNN's polling, they have a lean of 1.2 Democratic.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/


Posted By: chunkstyle Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/12/20 01:15 PM
I still believe a lawn sign survey would have been more accurate than the polls have proven themselves not to be.

Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/20 06:07 PM
I haven't really trusted polls for a long time. Telephone polling worked okay when everyone had a landline and everyone was trained to run to the phone every time it rang because it could be important...

It's not like that anymore. Unknown numbers are immediately blocked, spam callers and cell phones have killed the telephone survey.

Polls showed that Biden would win. Biden won. But the "snapshots" they showed us had no connection to reality. Polls grossly underestimated Trump's support and the support for the Republican Party as a whole.

Or perhaps what they failed to show was America's lack of support for the Democratic Party.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/14/20 08:40 PM
Latest House election results:

The Republicans have a net gain of 8 seats so far with 10 still to be determined. Republicans flipped 10 Democratic seats; 1 Libertarian seat, MI-3, Amash who once was a Republican, but switched to the Libertarian Party. The Democrats flipped 3 Republican seats. Last election. 235 Democrats, 199 Republican, 1 Libertarian. Current count, 219 Democrat, 206 Republican 10 still to be determined.

Perhaps New Hampshire sums up this election in a nut shell. NH went to Biden by 70,000 vote, yet elected a Republican Governor and both NH State House and Senate switched from Democratic to Republican control.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/17/20 01:47 AM
New Hampshire is a perfect example of our current electorate. Sad, angry, confused, misinformed and unpredictable.

America is NOT ready for a hard left turn.

But they're not yet ready to submit to a dictator either.

I consider that a positive. And movement in the right direction.

However slight it might be.

I have a feeling, down deep inside, that America has always been

Exactly. Like. This.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/17/20 03:47 AM
I think when you get down to state level, usually, governors and state legislatures have a bit more common sense than at the national level. It may seem that way only because at the state level it's easier to exchange governors and state legislature control than at the national level if they don't listen to the people.

Nationally, the elected officials listen to the party leaders more than the folks back home.


NH was another weird election just like the national. It was get rid of Trump, but let's not give the idea to the Democrats they have a mandate or we favor or endorse their agenda.

Perhaps folks have come to the conclusion to rein in both parties agendas we must have divided government, either intentionally or subconsciously. It's no secret a majority of Americans don't trust either party and view both unfavorably. You have 54% of all Americans who view the Democratic Party unfavorably, 58% who view the Republican Party unfavorably. That is down from last month when the Democrats were view unfavorably by 56% and the GOP by 60%. But that could be just the margin of error talking.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/17/20 05:29 PM
Another interesting stat from your numbers guy.

Of those who voted for either major party candidate because they wanted that candidate to become the next president. In other words their vote was for the candidate, not against the other candidate. This made up 71% of all those who voted.

Voting for Trump because they wanted him to continue to be president, rounding off, 58 million
Voting for Biden because they wanted him to become the next president, voting for Biden 50 million

Voting against a candidate, not for the other candidate, but strictly against a candidate only because they didn't want that candidate to continue as president or the challenger to become president. This vote was against a candidate and not for anyone. This group made up 24% of all those who voted.

Voting Biden only because they were against Trump, not for Biden, 25 million.
Voting Trump only because they were against Biden, not for Trump 11 million

This later group was decisive. The rest either refused to answer or were third party voters. This group made up 5% giving us 100%.

Biden won because of this later group who were strictly against Trump. I realize they all count the same as to the outcome of the election. It makes no difference if their vote was for or against a candidate.

But this later group of 25 million may not be for Biden's policies when he becomes president. They may make it tougher for him to govern only because they weren't really for him, but against Trump. this group also explains why the Republicans did so well down ballot vs. the presidency. Time will tell, but I found this quite interesting. I think this also backs up my belief that this election was all about getting rid of Trump, not putting the Democrats back in power as the down ballot voting also points to.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/17/20 05:32 PM
I think you need to do an analysis of oyther elections where there were major issues involved, and compare to this one. I think it is the only way to make your stats meaningful.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/17/20 07:32 PM
You're probably right. I know the anti vote was huge in 2016, Not so much in 2008 and 2012. I have 2016, percentages only. 25% of those who voted fell into the against a candidate and not being for the other candidate. Of those 25%, 39% voted for Clinton because they were against Trump and Clinton just happened to be the other candidate. 50% of that 25% voted for Trump because they were against Clinton and not really for Trump. 11% voted third party. this is real close to the 24% of the anti voters this year which broke down Biden getting 68% of the anti voters vs. 30% going to Trump. 2% voting third party. The big change is Trump won the anti vote in 2016, lost it big time in 2020, This according to CNN exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

In 2012 the anti vote made up 11% of those who voted according to Gallup which didn't break it down.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

The exit polls from 1972 through 2008 that I have didn't ask that question. So is 11% the norm for the anti vote or is 24 and 25% the norm.

I tend to think the 11% is the norm. We've had only 5 presidential candidates in history have a favorable rating of below 50% of all Americans. 4 of those 5 were in the last two elections.

Year Name Favorable/unfavorable
2020 Biden 49/50%
2020 Trump 45/54%
1964 Goldwater 43/47%
2016 Hillary Clinton 38/56%
2016 Donald Trump 36/60%

The whole list since 1956 when Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of these things.

Highest to lowest favorable/unfavorable ratings of each major party presidential candidate.
Favorable/unfavorable
1956 Eisenhower 84/12%
1964 LBJ 81/13%
1976 Carter 81/16%
1960 JFK 80/14%
1960 Nixon 79/16%
1968 Nixon 79/22%
1976 Ford 79/20%
1972 Nixon 76/21%
1968 Humphrey 72/28%
1984 Reagan 70/30%
1980 Carter 68/32%
1984 Mondale 66/34%
1980 Reagan 64/31%
1992 Bill Clinton 64/33%
2008 Obama 62/35%
2012 Obama 62/37%
1956 Stevenson 61/31%
2004 G.W. Bush 61/39%
2008 McCain 60/35%
1992 G.H.W. Bush 59/40%
2000 G.W. Bush 58/38%
2004 Kerry 57/40%
1996 Bill Clinton 56/42%
1988 G.H.W. Bush 56/39%
2000 Gore 55/43%
2012 Romney 55/43%
1972 McGovern 55/41%
1996 Dole 54/45%
1988 Dukakis 53/42%
2020 Biden 49/50%
2020 Trump 45/54%
1964 Goldwater 43/47%
2016 Hillary Clinton 38/56%
2016 Donald Trump 36/60%

Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/17/20 10:47 PM
yeah this anti-vote thing has been a talking point for some time it seems ... but I also think that is a talking head thing ... trying to make something of every little nothing. However, sticking in my mind is the 1964, 2016 and 2020 elections as iconic in the sense there was a perceptible polarization between personalities/ideas. Whether you can ascribe or conclude it is as simple as favorability or issues. I couldn't say. A little more information is necessary to make those conclusions.

Another question, which may be an equivalent question, is whether the anti-vote was driven by personality or issues? All I can say is as a human person, Mr Trump was one of, if not the most, obnoxious person I have ever seen on the national stage. That said I would not have voted him out solely for that reason. And that being said I think I disagreed with every policy decision he made. I don't think I could have said that about any Republican in the last 50 years.

keep digging P
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/20 12:22 AM
I wasn't really digging, I found it interesting. Perhaps I actually was because it interested me. I think lost in the numbers was these anti voters are the ones that may, might come to the fore to oppose some policies Biden presents to the public. They didn't vote for Biden or his policies, they voted against Trump and his as you put it and I agree, his obnoxious and very uncouth personality.

It's probably a lot of these anti voters who voted for Biden also turned around and voted Republican down ballot. As far as the election of the presidency, it probably means nothing. Now it could mean something down ballot or approving and being in favor of Biden's policies in the future. We don't know that, but possible.

Time will tell. Trump through his legislative agenda, he really only had two. The repeal of Obamacare which failed miserably and his tax cuts which barely passed. So there isn't any example of anti voters coming forth to give us a clear cut idea of things to come through a historical perspective.

Like Obama over his last six years doing things with his pen and his phone, EO's, Trump did mostly the same thing. Which in a way is good, as Biden can revoke most of them.

So we'll see. I'm already working on 2022. What better way to end this with the latest House update.

The Republicans have a net gain of 8 seats so far with 8 still to be decided. Republicans flipped 11 Democratic seats. The Democrats flipped 3 Republican seats. Last election. 236 Democrats, 199 Republican. Current count, 220 Democrat, 207 Republican 8 still to be determined.

Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/20 12:35 AM
Speaking of 2022 with redistricting coming up, there is a term trifecta's which simply means one party controls the governor, state senate and legislature.

An update on that also.

Republicans were projected to gain trifecta control in Montana and New Hampshire. The trifecta status of Alaska (a divided government Republican pick-up possibility) was not yet determined. If control of Alaska does not change, Republicans will have 23[1] trifectas (a net gain of two), Democrats will have 15 trifectas, and 12[1] states will have divided governments (a net loss of two). If Republicans gain a trifecta in Alaska, they will have 24 trifectas to Democrats' 15 with 11 divided governments.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas

Although Biden won by around 5 million votes give or take, he had no coat tails. The democrats did lousy down ballot which may come back to haunt them. Perhaps the anti vote means nothing, but then again if they ticket split as I think quite a lot of them did, come redistricting in trifecta states, the anti voters may mean a lot.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/20 01:35 AM
Democrats have gained the bully pulpit. But with no mandate to speak of. President Elect Biden will hold only ceremonial power and the only thing the American people require of him is to NOT BE Trump.

We're heading into a two year moratorium on governance.

Is it too soon to be talking about 2022?

Biden may not be able to do anything permanent in terms of legislation, but there is tons of stuff he can do. He can undo all of Trump's EOs, and put his own in place. His people will actually know the proper procedure (unlike Trump) so the Supreme Court will not be able to overturn them.

He can also get competent cabinet members and agency heads, unlike Trump's political cronies and saboteurs. Doesn't need senate confirmation, if he just rotates them every two years.

Republicans will be able to do nothing at all that Democrats don't support, so if they want to actually pass anything, they need to get rid of the Hasturd Rule. So I think compromise is coming. Either that or they might as well just stay home.

If he does a good enough job, Covid goes away with the vaccines, and the economy comes back, then maybe the voters will decide they like his stuff and vote in more Democratic Senators in 2022.
BTW, gerrymandering is predicated on packing your voters in as many 5% advantage districts as possible, and putting all the opposing party's voters in as few districts as possible. But it fails spectacularly, when you are down by 6%. Then you lose BIG because you have no safe districts.
Posted By: pdx rick Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/20 10:56 AM
Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
BTW, gerrymandering is predicated on packing your voters in as many 5% advantage districts as possible, and putting all the opposing party's voters in as few districts as possible. But it fails spectacularly, when you are down by 6%. Then you lose BIG because you have no safe districts.
Rightwingers look at the short-term immediate gratification and do not plan for the long-haul.

Hmm
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/18/20 02:53 PM
We have court ordered gerrymandering in Georgia. Majority Minority Districts. Georgia is approximately 35% black. Around Atlanta, around 50% or more in some counties. Around Augusta and Columbus is also heavily populated by blacks. So most blacks go into 5 districts where the black congressman wins with 60-80% of the vote if the Republicans run someone, a lot of times they don't bother. So we almost always end up with 9 GOP congressmen and 5 Democratic.

Democrats win their districts 75-25 or higher, Republicans their districts 55-45. After 2010 census, the courts ordered the original redistricting map redrawn because not enough minorities were included in the majority minority districts. I live in a county south of Atlanta divided into 4 congressional districts. We have a population of probably around 50-60,000. The northern 2/3rds of the country were divided into 3 different majority minority districts. Although where I live is probably mixed 40-40 black and white with 20% Asian. The bottom third, mostly white was placed in a Republican district. All done by the courts which made our state legislature redraw them 4 or 5 times until enough minorities were squeezed into their 5 majority minority districts.

Georgia has the third highest black population of any state at around 35%. Which by the way, comes out to the exact percentage of black congressmen we have, 5. That's exactly what the courts wanted. Which makes Republicans happy as that leaves the remaining 9 pretty much a sure thing for the Republicans. Georgia is just one of several southern states that the courts have to approve the drawing of their districts. So party gerrymandering is pretty much out of the question.

There is around 35 of these types of districts where blacks are in the majority. They guarantee each of those districts will go Democratic. Basically leaving 400 for the Republicans to contest. But in those remaining 400, the Republicans have a slight advantage since black democratic voters are packed into those 35 majority minority districts. Black democrats hold everyone of those 35 districts.

Now Hispanics have 30 majority minority districts nationwide, 23 held by democrats, 7 by republicans. This is as of the 2018 election, I haven't delved into this for the 2020 house election yet as their still counting in 8 districts.

To round this out, Asians have two majority minority districts where they make up over 50% of the voters, Hawaii and California. Hawaii 1st district is 59% Asian, Hawaii's 2nd district is 37%. So only Hawaii 1st qualifies as majority minority. California's 17th district is the majority minority Asian districts with just 50%.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/20 12:30 AM
Latest update on the house elections and state legislatures.

The Republicans have a net gain of 9 seats so far with 5 still to be decided. Republicans flipped 12 Democratic seats. The Democrats flipped 3 Republican seats. Last election. 236 Democrats, 199 Republican. Current count, 222 Democrat, 208 Republican 5 still to be determined.

State legislature, democrats lost 2. Republicans now control 29 state legislatures to 18 for the Democrats. Alaska’s senate is still to be determined. Minnesota is divided while Nebraska has a unicameral legislature. States with trifectas, one party having the governorship and control of both state legislature and state senate, 21 Republican, 16 Democratic.
Posted By: rporter314 Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/20 04:03 AM
Quote
Rightwingers look at the short-term immediate gratification and do not plan for the long-haul.
It's a yes and no.

Someone or some group hiding in the shadows is working hard to ensure for the long term, the judiciary will remain or try to convert to hard right ideologies, thus effectively blocking any effort to actually help people or provide services. Every time the Democrats pass a bill to help people. the right wing will file a suit and present before a hard right court which will overturn the law, ensuring people will know their place.


Listen to Sen Romney talk about working with Democrats except on all major political initiatives. Based on that and Sen McConnell's obstructionist strategy, I predict PE Biden will not pass any substantive legislation.

Probably not, but that's how the voters voted. We are a nominally democratic republic, so if the voters do not want a party to pass substantive legislation, you get divided government. We had undivided government from 2016 to 2018, and that sucked from the minority's perspective.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/20 08:31 PM
What was accomplished legislative during the united government? The tax cuts, I can't think of anything else. Obama had united government from 2009-10, he did the ACA and that was about it.

This election looking over it from top to bottom was to get rid of Trump, but not an endorsement of Democratic policies or a rejection of Republican ideals. If this election was more than getting rid of Trump and endorsing the Democratic Party, giving them a mandate for substantial change, the Democrats would have picked up 10 or more seats in the house as expected. They would have easily won the senate, projected for a 4-8 seat pickup, won a few state legislatures instead of losing two, gain a couple of governorship's instead of losing one.

I think the results prove what I've been saying all along. They wanted a return to sanity, a return to normalcy at the presidential level. Substantial change can wait for another day or another election once things return to normalcy.
Posted By: Greger Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/20 09:51 PM
Quote
They wanted a return to sanity, a return to normalcy at the presidential level. Substantial change can wait for another day or another election once things return to normalcy.

Once you venture into Bizzaro World it takes more than one(fiercely contested) election and clicking your heels together to get you back home. Joe Biden and his crew of corporate crooks are only normal in the neoliberalism is normalcy school of thought.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/21/20 11:02 PM
To a lot of swing voters, apparently ticket splitters also. Biden looked and gives the impression of being the adult in the room or in this election vs. the man-child with his name calling and temper tantrums.

I think when it comes down to elections, sometimes known as beauty contest to these swing voters or as some call them independents. It's their perspectives of the candidate that counts. Not so much policy or stances on certain issues. Swing voters usually aren't political junkies. They don't pay much attention if any to the daily grind of politics in Washington D.C. Most of the hot issues, they don't care much about unless those issue affect them personally.

Many don't give politics one thought until a few weeks ahead of the election. That is unless what is happening effects them. Many are more interested in who won that Sunday's football games or who's left on survivor than who is president.

I really don't think many actually vote on the issues. Most Republicans vote for the R, most Democrats for the D, what their candidates stand for or stances on the issues is irrelevant as long as the R or D is behind their name. This time with swing voters, I think it was more of Biden behaving as an adult or grownup that persuaded them to vote for him of the childish antics of Trump.

Their perspective, Biden adult, Trump man-child, schoolyard bully. Result, Biden wins swing voters, independents 54-41 with 5% voting third party.
Posted By: perotista Re: Is it too soon to be talking 2020? - 11/28/20 11:01 PM
I don't agree with all of this. But it spells out the disappointment of the down ballot offices rather nicely.

How Democrats Suffered Crushing Down-Ballot Losses Across America

https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-suffered-crushing-down-ballot-151200736.html
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