The first New York Times/Siena College poll out this cycle shows that among registered voters, 41 percent prefer Democrats to maintain control of Congress, while 40 percent want Republicans to gain the majority. A whopping 19 percent of those surveyed want “other” to control the legislative branch - clearly disillusioned with both parties.
For the house of representatives, here is the most important numbers - Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House.
There are 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 13 July 2022, 182 Democratic, 199 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 231-204 to 233-202.
The senate – competitive at-risk seats for the Democrats, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire. Competitive at-risk seats for the Republicans, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin. Looking at the at risk, competitive, switchable seats for the Democrats, New Hampshire and Georgia lean their way, Arizona and Nevada are pure tossups. For the Republicans, North Carolina leans the GOP way, Wisconsin is a pure tossup. Which leaves the Republican held seat of Pennsylvania which currently leans Democratic. Most likely outcome with this scenario is a net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats.
Historical wise, the average loss for the party in power where their president has an overall job approval of around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost and a loss of 6 senate seats. This isn’t going to happen. At least by today’s numbers. Regardless, the democrats are going to lose the house. You want a complete overview of the generic congressional ballot and not just from a single poll. Here you are.
...not if 12 GOP Representative are indicted for sedition - as they should be.
Originally Posted by perotista
For the house of representatives, here is the most important numbers - Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House.
...not if 12 GOP Representative are indicted for sedition - as they should be.
Those 12 are from safe Republican districts. Besides, 2 of the 12 have lost in the GOP primaries. There are districts and states out there that are solid red or blue. It wouldn’t matter if either party ran Atilla the Hun as their solid red or solid blue candidate, Atilla would win. One needs to remember there’s 54 competitive districts as of today, subject to change of course. That means 381 districts are safe or one could say the winner is already determined prior to the first vote being cast.
Republicans have 199 safe districts, to retake the house they need to win 19 out of the 54. The Democrats on the other hand have 182 safe districts, need to win 36 out of the 54 competitive districts to retain control of the House. Even if you split the competitive districts down the middle, 14 GOP districts, give each party 7 each. Split the 40 democratic competitive districts at 20 each, you have the Republicans at 27 seats which would give them 226 with 218 needed to control the house. But with inflation and having a president at 38% approval, splitting evenly isn’t going to happen.
Thanks to Trump and his endorsements, the Republicans have fielded at least 3 very poor general election candidates in the senate races. PA, OH, GA. Trump is more interested in punishing his fellow Republicans than winning in the upcoming midterms. The Democrats would be better off keeping Trump very visible and continuing his endorsements. You and other democrats don’t realize how valuable Trump is to limiting the Democratic loses this year. Take him away, you just might experience that red wave.
I’ve been talking trends for quite awhile here. How it seems blacks and Hispanics, demographics of past reliable Democratic voters are slowly trending toward the GOP. The below article reinforces what I been saying and does so with polls. Much more good information is in this short article which is exactly what I have been pointing out previously. From the article and polls.
“The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.”
The bottom line from the article: “The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.”
This "great realignment" is what's going to cause the softening of Republican policy. It's occurring right along with the generational changing of the guards.
It's going to require Democrats to soften their own policies a bit as well and seek compromise when the iron is hot. Immigration reform, tax reform, healthcare reform, labor reform...
All things will become possible(within centrist parameters)
Perhaps with a generational change of both party’s leadership, then compromise becomes possible. Compromise was always possible under the senate leadership of Lott and Daschle and before them Mitchell and Dole. When Reid and McConnell took over, compromise went out the window. The biggest compromise during Lott’s and Daschle’s reign was the 50-50 senate tie which each agreed to a power sharing agreement. Something totally impossible today under each party’s leadership.
...not if 12 GOP Representative are indicted for sedition - as they should be.
Still toast. And still no red wave.
I'm gonna invoke the law of averages here...12 are suspected, 3 probably guilty, 1 probably not. The others have alibis or plausible deniability.
No one will be convicted. One might be indicted.
All are safe Republican seats and whatever the fate of the 12 random suspects, those seats will remain Republican. No one is going to change their party affiliation over a crooked pol or two.
Pero says 15-20 seats lost for the Dems if the election were held today. Probably accurate.
I say 15 tops on election day. **with no knowledge of any races, just playing averages again because...
Several issues are liable to get liberal leaners off the couch come November and I expect gas prices to be back near normal by then, certainly under $4 but not much probably ever again.
He's waffling on the Dem pick-up in the Senate and I say it's a sure thing thanks to Trump's clumsy kingmaking attempts. 51-49 Dems and I say you can take that one to the bank.
Losing the house by a small margin isn't a big deal.
“The former president is motivated to announce early — even before Election Day 2022 — in the hopes of clearing the field of primary rivals. But GOP leaders, including some of Trump’s closest advisors, don’t want him to declare his intentions until after the midterm elections. The GOP wants to keep voters focused on President Joe Biden, rather than transforming the contest into a referendum on Trump.”
My thoughts, the leaked SCOTUS draft didn’t move the needle for the upcoming midterms, the mass shootings in Buffalo and Texas didn’t either, the SCOTUS overturning ROE hasn’t. The needle is within a point of exactly where it was prior to the above happening. Now if Trump announced early, before the midterms, as feared by Republican leaders, instead of this election being about inflation and Biden, it could, I repeat, could turn into one about Trump. If that were to happen, the chances of retaining the House would improve and picking up 3 or so seats in the senate seems likely. Independents still don’t like Trump and their hesitancy to vote for Trump back candidates, Republicans in general is limiting the damage to the Democrats of having a president with a very low 38% approval rating.
I think a Trump announcement that he’s running for president again prior to the midterms could do something that the leaked draft, the mass shootings, the overturning of ROE couldn’t. I stated abortion was baked into the equation. Maybe Trump is too when it comes to independents. Announcing his candidacy prior to the midterms would be a way of placing Trump on the ballot. Independents don’t like him and would move some to vote Democratic instead of Republican. Would Trump’s announcement be enough to give the Democratic House candidates that 3-5 extra points needed to win in those competitive, at risk, swing and switchable districts? It just might. At a minimum cut an expected 18-20 seat loss down to 10 or perhaps under. It would be most interesting.
I think a Trump announcement that he’s running for president again prior to the midterms could do something that the leaked draft, the mass shootings, the overturning of ROE couldn’t. I stated abortion was baked into the equation. Maybe Trump is too when it comes to independents.
Holy crap! Trump could do us one last favor before he goes! See, Pero, you aren't just a numbers guy, this is some pretty devious political strategy and snaps into my models perfectly.
And I'll bet he can't resist doing it. He's feeling pressure from the committee, from Ron DeSantis and from events he can't control. Fewer checks are rolling in as his star fades...
He'll do what he always does and shoot off his mouth, maybe at his next rally.
The thing is this hasn’t happened yet, although Trump has been talking about announcing for months. Announcing his candidacy means nothing as to New York, Georgia or the DOJ. Trump probably knows his hold is slipping among Republicans. Many now want him to go away. They don’t want to fight 2020 election this midterm. They want to keep this election about Biden and inflation, high gas and food prices. A Trump announcement would change that, making Trump the spotlight, making this election about Trump and not Biden. Here’s some scenarios.
1. Trump is indicted prior to the midterms, by who doesn’t matter which peeves off Republicans who show up in huge numbers in November. An indictment might also relieve some of the hesitancy independents now have for voting Trump backed candidates and the Republicans in general. This could happen if Trump ceases to be a threat to regain the presidency which an indictment and a trial would do.
2. Nothing happens, Trump doesn’t announce, and he isn’t indicted which would maintain the status quo of the Republicans picking up about half the seats in the house that they should due to independents hesitancy and shall I say the fear of a Trump return. One should remember with a president whose approval is 39% or there about, a red wave of 40 or more seats should be in the works.
3. Trump announces, he becomes the main attraction, not Biden and perhaps not inflation. This enforces the hesitancy for independents, some switch from voting GOP to voting Democratic. The fact is a majority of independents don’t like Trump and don’t want him to return to office.
Election wise, 1 would help the Republicans in the midterms. Turn the anticipated 18-20 seat gain into maybe 30 and perhaps a gain of 1 or 2 seats in the senate. If nothing happens, 2, we basically stay where we’re at now. A 18-20 seat loss in the house for the Dems, a gain of 1 seat in the senate. 3 would be a big help to the Democrats. Probably giving the Dems a 1-2 seat pick up in the senate, perhaps 3 and cut their losses in the house to 10 and maybe even under. This is how I see it, my best SWAG.
Privately, many Republicans are hoping Trump does get indicted, charge and sent to trial. They know he is hurting their election chances this November in more ways than one. But they won’t say so out of fear of losing the support of Trump’s followers. They’re cowed.
Privately, many Republicans are hoping Trump does get indicted, charge and sent to trial. They know he is hurting their election chances this November in more ways than one. But they won’t say so out of fear of losing the support of Trump’s followers. They’re cowed.
And yet they want everyone to believe they're all badass patriots. Patriotism consists of standing by your country, not sucking up to a politician.
Election wise, 1 would help the Republicans in the midterms.
And 1 is the outcome Democrats are pushing for.
Trump is going to be indicted. Probably before the midterms.
Trump is going to announce. Probably before the midterms
They cancel each other out. No change in the forecast.
Jeffery, everybody is a patriot. You don't have to be a Democrat to be a patriot.
Quote
They’re cowed.
They need every one of those stupid Trumpy votes to stay in office. They don't like it either but there's no way around it. DeSantis has won those voters over on his own terms and bucked Trump at the same time. If Trump actually runs DeSantis will primary him and win.
Greger, having both happen is something I didn’t think of. I doubt the indictment here in Georgia will come anytime soon. There’re still the special grand jury waiting to hear witnesses. Once they finish, if the evidence shows charges should be brought, then a regular grand jury will have to be impaneled. We’re probably post Midterms here. New York, I don’t know anything about. Then there’s Garland, the DOJ. I would wager he’s weighing all sorts of political ramifications of an indictment along with its timing. You can be certain there would be very loud and numerous howls if Garland indicts Trump prior to the election of the Democratic AG trying to influence the outcome of the midterms.
After the midterms would be the safer bet, howls of partisan politics would rise for sure, but not trying to influence the election. That’s up to Garland to weigh and decide.
Self-preservation is always rule number one for our elected officials regardless of party. Yes, this is precisely why most elected Republicans or those who want to run for office are keeping quiet about Trump. Most of them will need all the Trump supporters they can get along with independents depending on the state and district.
One thing is for sure, this isn’t your normal midterm election. It’s unique, the likes which has never happened before. Not with a president with as low job approval as Biden which is still below 40%. Here’s some history. Trump was at 41% approval in July 2018, he lost 44 house seats in November Obama was at 45% approval in July 2010, he lost 63 house seats in November Bush was at 39% approval in July 2006, He lost 33 house seats in November. Bill Clinton was at 42% approval in July 1994, he lost 54 house seats in November
And here’s Biden with his 39% approval projected to lose 18-20 seats. But there a half dozen factors present this year that weren’t in the 4 presidents listed above. Very interesting indeed.
I'm counting on Garland to strike while the iron is hot.
Every registered Democrat in America is screaming for it. Trump certainly deserves it, and DOJ probably already knows everything it needs to know to indict.
J6 Committee revelations are softening up the public for the eventual indictment and lot of rank and file centrist Reeps are turning away from him.
This is Trump's last chance to boost fundraising and to rouse the rabble in his favor before his leaky ship sinks.
You think he's gonna miss it for the good of his Party? I don't.
Garland will do whatever Garland is going to do. He’ll probably make Democrats happy. If Garland does indict Trump, there may be a sigh of relief among independents thinking they’ve heard the last of Trump. But wait, here comes the trial, independents get saturated with more and more Trump as the trial continues, exactly what they didn’t want. The two words independents, in fact most Americans didn’t want to hear in 2022, COVID and Trump. How this plays out among independents is anyone’s guess.
Will independents be happy that soon Trump will be a word they may never hear again after the trial? Or will they be mad as all get out for the indictment and trial putting Trump’s face and name in front of them 24/7? If this happens prior to the midterms, one or the other, happy or mad may have a significant bearing on how independents vote.
The fact is most independents don’t understand the fixation Democrats have with Trump. He’s gone, no longer in charge, no longer president, forget about him. Try to solve the inflation problem which is hurting them much more than anything else, more than any other issue, focus on solving inflation and to Hades with Trump and any other issue. Make it possible to put food on the table today, gas in the car to go to work, put a roof over their heads, etc.
If it weren’t for Trump, the GOP would be on their way to a huge red wave. Democrats ought to be thanking Trump every night as he is the main cause for the Democrats having limited losses this midterm. Let me sum this up, Trump is the past, the midterm results are the future and they have repercussions beyond November. What happens to Trump won’t. For me, the midterms are the priority, the future. Trump is way down on my list even if he makes my list, he’s the past. I acknowledge he happened, but my focus is on the future.
Interesting development for independents over the last month or two. Question 131 - Generic Congressional Vote - If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?
On 1 June in the generic congressional ballot, independents were stating they’d vote for the Republican congressional candidates by a 45-38 margin. Leaving 18% undecided.
Today, independents still favor the Republicans by a 35-27 margin. That still an 8-point lead for the Republican congressional candidates. But instead of 18% being unsure or undecided, voting other etc. we now have 38%. That is a huge jump in the undecideds. That is a 10-point drop for the Republicans and an 11-point drop for the Democrats since 1 June in those who plan on voting for their candidates. As to why the huge drop, that would be pure speculation. But speculate I will. Perhaps independents are now sick and tired of all the partisan’s rants and negative personal politics from both sides, they are saying to Hades with voting. They certainly don’t like either major party, only 27% of independents view the Democratic Party favorably, 29% view the GOP favorably. Why vote when the choice is between two candidates or between two parties you don’t want neither one to win? You want both to lose which is impossible in our two-party system. So why help one or the other when you want both as far away from the seat of power of government as possible.
Another tidbit here, 28% of independents are paying a lot of attention to the midterms, 38% just a little and 38% none at all.
How to explain independents lack of interest in the midterm election. One way to put it is that it is the Democrats and Republicans own the horses (candidates) in the races. They have a huge stake in the results as the owners. Independents don’t own a thing, they’re casual observers if that. But they do usually decide who wins and who loses, not either party’s base. Independents will only become interested if they get angry at something the party in power has done or didn’t do. Then they’re energized to vote them out of power. Wave elections like in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018 happen. If independents aren’t angry, fewer show up to vote and they usually vote to retain the party in power. Simple explanation, but at times, simple is best. Happy equals keeping the party in power, angry means getting rid of the party in power.
Today, I’d say independents are disappointed, dissatisfied with Biden and the democratic controlled congress. But they’re not angry. Not yet. Independents also don’t trust the Republicans which is their only alternative to replace those they’re disappointed, dissatisfied, unhappy with. A catch 22 situation. It seems independents don’t want the Democrats in charge of congress, but they don’t want the Republicans in charge either. This may be a case of split the difference. Give the Republicans the house but keep the senate in democratic hands which today looks like the likeliest outcome. Although this could change tomorrow.
I’d say come November, you’ll see a high turnout among Republicans and Democrats, but a vey low independent turnout as they don’t like their choices. Usually, although independents according to Gallup make up 43% of the electorate, they average only 30% of those who turnout to vote. I doubt if independents make up 25% of those who vote in November. It could be lower. That would be way below average for independents. Republicans and Democrats, each party makes up 27% each of the electorate. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that each, Republicans 38%, Democrats 38% of those who turnout to vote this November. But it makes sense, since the two major parties own the horses while independents don’t like their choices.
No time to type this morning but I've got a question Pero...
What percentage of registered partisans turn out to vote?
It varies election to election, but I can give you some numbers from past presidential elections. 2020 Republicans made up 30% of the Electorate, 36% of those who voted Democrats made up 31% of the Electorate, 37% of those who voted Independents made up 38% of the electorate, 26% of those who voted
2016 Republicans made up 27% of the electorate, 33% of those who voted Democrats made up 31% of the electorate, 37% of those who voted Independents made up 40% of the electorate, 30% of those who voted
2012 Republicans made up 28% of the electorate, 32% of those who voted Democrats made up 33% of the electorate, 38% of those who voted Independents made up 38% of the electorate, 29% of those who voted
There’s probably a way to work out an answer to your question using the above numbers. I haven’t figured it out yet. Those who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats are way overrepresented in those who vote as to their percentage of the electorate. An average of 6 points above their percentage of the electorate. Independents are underrepresented by 9 points. You could take this back 100 years, you’d still find those who identify with either major party way overrepresented when it comes to actual voting while independent are very underrepresented. That’s normal.
This as I stated before, I chalk this up as Republicans and Democrats owning the racehorses, candidates, while independents own nothing. They’re casual observers or fans if you like. Republicans and Democrats since they’re the owners have a huge stake in the results, independent, little to no stake as they can vote for one party 60-40 one election, then turn around and vote 60-40 for the other party in the next election. While on average, those members or those who belong, identify with the two major party’s votes for their party’s candidates 94% of the time on average.
Where you have 75% of democrats enthusiastic about voting this midterm, 80% of Republicans, when it comes to independents you had 24% say no enthusiasm with another 21% basically answering, what midterms? 55% of independents said they’re enthusiastic for comparison.
Now why would independents be eager to vote? They are very unhappy, dissatisfied with Biden and the Democrats in congress, they have all the wrong priorities according to many polls. Then their alternative is the Trump led Republicans which they dislike and don’t trust Trump. Nothing there to choose from or more accurately to vote for or against if I understand the numbers correct.
I think both major parties have alienated a very large segment of independents where stay home seems the best answer when asked to choose between them.
I was just trying to get a feel for how many registered Reeps and Dems sit home on average. I figure a lot of folks register, choose a team, and then never come to the games.
Independents represent a small third of all voters but they're always voting a split ticket, so something like 15% of each party's votes are made up of independent votes.
Yes. You can break down independents into three groups, independents lean democratic, independents lean republican and pure or true independents with no leans. While the base of both parties as of 20 June is 27% each with independents making up 43% of the electorate. It’s really isn’t that simple. If you add leaners to the base total, that brings you up to 46% Republican base plus independent leaners, 45% Democratic base plus leaners. That leaves 9% as pure or true independents with no leans. Pure or True independents make up 21% of all independents. Also party affiliation numbers, percentages constantly changes, they’re dynamic. This year, 2022, the Republican base has been as low as 24% and as high as 29%. Democratic base has ranged from 27-31% while independents ranged between 39-46%. The independents numbers include pure/true independents along with independents leans Republican and Leans democratic.
The voting habits are different though. Whereas the base of a party will vote for their party’s candidates 94% of the time, independents who leans toward a party does so 74% of the time. You’d have the democratic base voting 94-6 over the Republican while independents who lean Democratic voting 74-26 over Republicans. Again, not that simple as that doesn’t include third party or independent candidates votes. Pure or true independents with no leans are impossible to figure out how they will vote, I gave up on them.
One other thing. The vast majority of polls divide party affiliation as Republican base, Democratic base and all of independents regardless of lean. Only a very few will include the leaners in their poll as being Republican and or Democrats. They’ll state so, Republican plus leaners or Democratic plus leaners. Those who do poll issues and not elections.
The polls I have cited since I’ve been here don’t include leaners among either party’s base.
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – GA D Warnock from +2 to +3, NV D Cortez Masto +2 down to +1, NC R Budd from +1 to +2, OH R Vance from +3 down to +2, WI R Johnson from +1 to +2
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50 Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman +3 Democratic gain R 49 D 51 Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson +2 Republican hold R 49 D 51
Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. Pennsylvania looks like the only seat to change hands, giving the Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the senate.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 221 Democrats, 214 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the House. There are 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 24 July 2022, 181 Democratic, 200 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.
I don't think the Senate picture presented is accurate, frankly. I think Johnson and Oz are both going to lose, giving Ds 2 more pickups. Masto is a wild card. My bet is 54-46 D Senate, barring any wild fluctuations. I expect to see the effects of the January 6 hearings slowly shifting views in purple Districts, few as there are. The effect of Dobbs is only now beginning to be felt. Count on women to repeat 2018 results. They're fired up.
The House is still likely to swing, but it's less of a sure thing than 2 months ago. History, geography and vote suppression favor the GOP.
Two months ago, the house had the basically the same numbers as of today. The GOP led by 2.2 points on 25 May, they lead today in the generic congressional ballot by 2.5 points baring any new polls today.
Since redistricting was completed, the 18-20 house seat pickup also has been steady.
The senate, close races with some candidates to still be decided in Arizona and Wisconsin. But there’s only 6 competitive states, 3 from each side. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada from the democrats, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the GOP side. Incumbents have a slight advantage in 5 of the 6 today with Pennsylvania be the exception. There D Fetterman has the slight advantage. Incumbency is a huge advantage, which is why I expect Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin to remain where they are today. North Carolina is an open seat, but Budd is up in the polls and it seems he’s increasing his lead.
As for the 1-6 hearings, basically only democrats are paying attention to them along with some other avid anti-Trumpers. 32% of independents approve of the 1-6 committee, 39% disapprove and 29% answer, what committee? Those hearings have failed to move the needle at all. Neither has the leaked draft, the mass school shootings. The official overturning of Roe by the SCOTUS has moved the needle a point in the generic congressional ballot, but not in the at risk, switchable, competitive house districts nor in any of the senate races. Not yet anyway.
Independents will decide the midterms as Republicans and Democrats cancel each other out. We still have a long way to go, so nothing is written in stone.
I don't think the Senate picture presented is accurate, frankly.
Agreed. There is no way Vance is winning OH and Oz winning PA. Mentally ill Walker won't win GA either.
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
The House is still likely to swing, but it's less of a sure thing than 2 months ago. History, geography and vote suppression favor the GOP.
Agree with this too. If anything Trump has taught us is that it is NOT business as usual* as long as he's still around. Trump should do the Dems a solid and announce his 2024 intentions to run.
Midterms always flip parties, no, usually not unless independents get angry. History of the House.
1955-1994 Democrats controlled the House for 40 straight years, winning all those midterms. 1994 flipped from Democrat to Republican 1998, 2002 these midterms, the Republicans remained in control, no flip. 2006 Democrats flipped the House 2010 Republicans flipped the House 2014 Republican remained in control, no flipping 2018 Democrats flipped the House.
Forgetting the 40 straight years of Democratic control of the house, beginning in 1994 the House flipped 4 times, stayed the same 3 times. So why were the Democrats able to maintain control of the House for 40 years? The answer is simple, From FDR until Reagan, those who identified themselves or affiliated with the Democratic Party averaged 45% of the electorate. That dropped to 35% from Reagan to Obama and now stands at 27%. With the Republicans also at 27% today, flipping is much easier depending on independents who now make up 43% of the electorate. The Republicans average around 27% of the electorate from Eisenhower until today.
I must disagree. It’s not about supporting either party today. It’s a question of which major party you want to lose the least. Not win but lose the least. That doesn’t translate into support for either one. I’m talking independents here. They mighty dissatisfied, unhappy, disappointed in Biden, all you must do is look at his approval rating along with the Democrats in congress.
But independents don’t trust the alternative party either, the Republicans. Only 27% of independents have a favorable view of the Democrats, 54% unfavorable while 29% view the GOP favorably, 50% unfavorably with the rest in the undecided, not sure or plain don’t care column. There’s no love there or support for either party. The support is for a viable third party so independents don’t have to make a choice between Republicans and Democrats.
Who do independents plan on voting for this midterm? It’s 35-27 for the Republicans with the rest in the undecided, not sure, other or will not vote column. The good news for democrats is independents aren’t angry at them yet. Just disappointed, dissatisfied, plain unhappy. Throw in the distrust of a Trump led party, that means minimal loses. It is my opinion that Trump right now is the difference between minimal loses and a red wave. Without Trump, there would be no hesitancy about independents voting for the alternative party to the Democrats, the Republicans.
Ah, hope springs eternal, yes, indeed we’ll see. November is still a long way off, plenty of time for these numbers to change. I think the difference is I’m going by today’s hard cold numbers whereas you’re going by the heart. When doing my forecasts, I leave out my feelings, emotions, the heart. Most of the time, I’m successful in doing that. But every once in a while, they slip in.
...except in 2022, it's not about race, it's about supporting the Dems.
Supporting them? Why? What have Democrats done to improve the lives of independent working Americans in 2022? And why would independents lie to the pollsters about who they will vote for?
Partisanship is the new racism, but independents aren't racists. They don't care what party you belong to...they want results. Democrats have not delivered.
Democrats are not trying to take away their rights or actually kill them, like so many Republicans seem bent on. That should count for something. If Biden can't come through with the things he said he wanted, it's because he didn't win enough of congress to make those things happen. So we need more Republicans in congress, so even fewer of those things happen? I think the basic problem is that few voters understand how the government works: If you like the things that a party proposes, you need to vote for that party to make those things happen.
Instead they get distracted by buzzwords and made-up issues. IE: Critical Race Theory, ANTIFA's insurrection at the Capital, The Great Replacement Theory, Stolen Election, to name a few.
I think you need to look at the entire 2020 ballot and not just the presidency. 2020 wasn’t even close to an endorsement for the Democratic Party agenda if one takes the entire ballot into consideration. Outside of the presidency, it might even be considered a rejection. 2020 was simply an election to get rid of Trump, no more, no less. Remember the Republicans while losing the presidency by 7 plus million votes gained 13 house seats, a governorship and two state legislatures. Biden became the first president since 1884 to win the popular and lose house seats. Biden won by 7 plus million, lost 13 house seats. Grover Cleveland back in 1884 won by a mere 58,000 and lost 8 house seats. Below the popular vote percentages.
Biden won the presidency 51.3 to 46.9% House Republicans received 49.1 to 48.3 over the Democrats Senate Republicans received 49.3 to 47.0% over the Democrats Governors Republicans received 52.4 to 44.1% over the Democrats
I don’t have the popular vote percentages for the state legislatures, but the GOP increased their number of state legislatures in 2020 over 2018. But take note the Republicans won the nationwide popular vote for the House, senate and governor’s races. Only at the presidential level did the Democrats win the nationwide popular vote. You had approximately 7 million ticket splitters who voted for Biden, more to the truth, against Trump than for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot. That’s voting Democratic for president, then voting Republican for the House, senate, Governors and state legislatures.
The only conclusion one can arrive at is 2020 was a rejection of Trump, but not an endorsement for the Democratic agenda. If it was an endorsement of the Democratic Party agenda, the people would have given Biden the numbers he needed in congress. They didn’t, in fact they took away Democratic numbers and gave them to the GOP.
I don't think independents get distracted by partisan buzzwords like critical race theory or replacement theory, or even Antifa forces storming the capital...they don't care enough to get distracted by Republican chimeras any more than they believe Democrats will raise the minimum wage or provide "free" healthcare.
Pretty tough when Congress is divided when one party controls the House and one controls the Senate, or certain Members of a Caucus act as if they support the cheap and chintzy platform of the other side.
I assume you’re talking about Manchin. You should be thanking your lucky stars the Democrats have him. Without Manchin, Mitch McConnell would be majority leader with the GOP controlling the senate. Except for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, nothing on your list would have been accomplished.
As for independents, “it’s the economy stupid,” to use a phrase coined by James Carville. Bill Clinton political adviser. 37% of independents list inflation as their most important issue. Climate change is third at 9%. Abortion is way down the list at 4%. I see nothing on your list outside of climate change independents care about and that’s 28 points behind the economy. I agree with Greger, most independents don’t care who controls congress. The rule of thumb when it comes to how independents vote, generally anyway, is if their wallet is getting fatter, they vote for the party in power. If their wallet is thinning or flat, they’ll vote for the party out of power. It’s worked that way for a long time. For the most part, independents aren’t political junkies, if something don’t affect them, they don’t care. Everything on your list doesn’t affect independents as much as inflation and rising prices do. It’s quite simple really.
“It’s the economy stupid” worked in the ‘90s. Today, voters are more sophisticated and understand nuance and that our country will cease to exist if the lying, election-stealing, rights taking, pro 1%-wealthy, democratic republic hating, Fascist Rightwing white Christian Nationalists gain control of our government again. Decent America-loving Americans understand this and will vote accordingly.
There is a 50/50 split not because of Manchin, but because the GOP lost two seats in a Georgia special election in 2021.
On Tuesday, court filings showed that prosecutors have notified 16 Republicans who participated in a plot to certify fake electoral college votes for Trump in Georgia that they’re now “targets” of the criminal probe. - WaPo
Past voting performance does not predict future outcomes - especially if Donald Trump is involved. It's a whole new world.
In what is being called "a gift to prosecutors," The New York Times reported yesterday that previously unknown communications between staff on Donald Trump's campaign revealed the work outside advisers were doing to try and overturn the election.
In one email, an internal adviser, Jack Wilenchik, a Phoenix-based lawyer who helped organize the pro-Trump electors in Arizona, wrote in a Dec. 8, 2020, email to Boris Epshteyn, a strategic adviser for the Trump campaign. admitted that the "alternate slate of electors" were actually "fake electors."
***Boom***
There are over 50 current GOP Congresspeople in on the plot to steal the 2020 election from the American people.
It's less than four months until the November election. Investigations take time and no indictments have arisen from the J6 Committee yet.
I'm sure they will, and I expect Trump to be charged with dereliction of duty among other things. But time is not on the Democrats' side and any number of indictments is not liable to sway the way anybody votes.
In January investigations will commence against Hunter Biden's foreign ties to the petroleum industry, Joe Biden's retreat from Afghanistan, the baby formula fiasco, among others.
Indictments may arise out of those investigations too.
They will also not affect the way people vote.
The economy though... will affect the way people vote.
[quote] That's the trouble with democracy. You have to let the idiots vote too.
Only the curated idiots approved by red state governments. Other idiots that won't vote for Trump or any Republican find themselves facing significant hurdles to vote.
My former neighbor across the street in Mansfield Texas told Karen and I that the polling place for our old neighborhood is now twenty four miles South in Cleburne, the Johnson County seat. Meanwhile the rest of Mansfield that sits on the other side of TX 917 (near where 157 and US287 cross) still votes at Mansfield High School which is right in town.
Our former neighborhood is about 35% black and 30% hispanic, the rest of Mansfield is lily white and reliably Republican, and is situated firmly in Tarrant County while our little berg sits astride Tarrant and Johnson Counties.
We all used to vote at the high school the entire ten years we lived there. Red State "democracy" is picking and choosing which idiots get to vote and how to make it harder for the less desirable idiots.
... no indictments have arisen from the J6 Committee yet...
The Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and 3-percenter leadership has been indicted. Steven Bannon has been indicted. Peter Navarro has been indicted.
Two hundred protesters have been tried and sentenced.
As a result of the J6 Committee investigations? I was under the impression that most of those occurred before the Committee actually began investigating anything.
Navarro and Bannon weren't arrested over any charges relating to the riot, they were both arrested for refusing to testify.
Chances of success are probably close to zero. But I’m for anything and any party that attempts to bridge the gap in ideology along with possibly getting us out of today’s modern political era of Polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship where each major party views the other major party as this nation’s number one, worst enemy.
Chances of success are probably close to zero. But I’m for anything and any party that attempts to bridge the gap in ideology along with possibly getting us out of today’s modern political era of Polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship where each major party views the other major party as this nation’s number one, worst enemy.
There are times Jeffrey when third party or the available of third-party candidates brings voters to the polls whereas they wouldn’t have. Classic example is 2016, 6% voted third party that year which included 12% of independents. Which is not surprising when 25% of all Americans disliked both major party candidates and didn’t want neither one to become the next president which included 54% of independents.
Both Trump and Clinton set the record for the lowest favorable ratings in our history or since Gallup and Pew Research began keeping track of these things. Trump 36% favorable, Clinton 38% favorable. Unfavorable was Clinton at 56% and Trump at 60% Trump and Clinton are the only two presidential candidates to have a favorable rating of below 40% and an unfavorable rating of above 50%. Barry Goldwater in 1964 held the record for the lowest favorable at 43% and the highest unfavorable at 47% prior to 2016. Now Barry can rest in peace knowing there were two candidates much more disliked by all Americans than him.
CNN asked those who voted third party who they’d would have voted for if only Trump and Clinton were on the ballot, no other candidates. 19% answered Trump, 16% Clinton and a whopping 65% said they’d wouldn’t have voted. Having third party choices did increase voter turnout if only to vote against both major party candidates.
You can see the third-party vote actually helped Clinton in 2016. It’s an old wife’s tale about third party vote always helping the GOP. Usually the Libertarian candidate is the highest vote getter outside of the two major parties and they draw conservatives’ voters away from Republican candidates. Another more recent example, without the Libertarian candidate, Hazel drawing 2,3% of the vote in Nov 2020, Perdue would have achieved his 50% plus one vote. He received 49.7% to Ossoff’s 47.9%. Thanks to third party candidates the Democrats control the senate today.
Bottom line is history shows third party in most instances takes votes away from the GOP and that the high voter turnout always benefiting the Democrats is also a myth, another old wives’ tale most have bought into without doing any research.
Speaking of Independents, I won't be surprised if Liz Cheney loses her primary, but then wins as an Independent candidate in November. MAGA Republicans dominate the Republican Party in Wyoming, but I suspect they may not have a majority of all the votes. Particularly after The Big MAGA gets indicted.
There are barely half a million people in Wyoming. There's not a lot of wiggle room, but Cheney has begun mailing Democrats with instructions on how to change parties to vote for her in the primaries...
Her opponent had this to say about the effort...
Quote
“What Cheney doesn’t understand is that Democrats will drop her like a bad habit after she’s no longer useful to them on the Jan. 6 committee.”
She's right about that. Other than the Trump thing, Cheney stands opposed to everything Democrats believe.
There are barely half a million people in Wyoming. There's not a lot of wiggle room, but Cheney has begun mailing Democrats with instructions on how to change parties to vote for her in the primaries...
Her opponent had this to say about the effort...
Quote
“What Cheney doesn’t understand is that Democrats will drop her like a bad habit after she’s no longer useful to them on the Jan. 6 committee.”
She's right about that. Other than the Trump thing, Cheney stands opposed to everything Democrats believe.
I actually thought that Cheney had a good idea, until she came out against Roe and then I thought..."welp, she is still a conservative at the end of the day."
Republicans voting for party over country and voting against the economy and veterans?!? Say it's not so!
Guess McTurtle is feeling bitter after new polling shows insurrectionist fomenting Donald Trump endorsed candidates Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia are both losing badly to their respective Democratic opponents and Ohio's J.D. Vance is struggling.
While the Dems have their flaws, they are at the moment, the only thing standing between America and a monstrous gang of radical seditionist Republicans who are actively trying to dismantle democracy and impose an authoritarian theocracy where women don't have rights over their own bodies, same-sex marriages are banned, guns are everywhere, and the only books kids are allowed to read in school are illustrated copies of Art of the Deal illustrated by Trump himself and all drawn in Sharpie.
There are barely half a million people in Wyoming. There's not a lot of wiggle room, but Cheney has begun mailing Democrats with instructions on how to change parties to vote for her in the primaries...
Her opponent had this to say about the effort...
Quote
“What Cheney doesn’t understand is that Democrats will drop her like a bad habit after she’s no longer useful to them on the Jan. 6 committee.”
She's right about that. Other than the Trump thing, Cheney stands opposed to everything Democrats believe.
You got that exactly right Greger. Once the Democrats have got their use of Cheney on the 1-6 committee, they’ll completely wash their hands of her. They’ll drop her like a ton of bricks.
Once the Democrats have got their use of Cheney on the 1-6 committee, they’ll completely wash their hands of her. They’ll drop her like a ton of bricks.
Mebbe it's that anti-Roe anti-woman control over her own body thing that Cheney seems to favor. How misogynistic can another woman be to another woman?
Ohio is interesting in that Vance is a Trump endorsed candidate who won the Republican Primary over a candidate better suited to win the general election. Trump also did this in Pennsylvania with Oz and in Georgia with Walker. The poorest candidate for the general election won their primaries only because Trump backed them and Trumpers flooded to vote for them.
Arizona may join the list of having a Trump backed candidate which has a very poor shot at winning the general election come Tuesday when Arizona holds their primary. As for the Democrats chances of keeping control of the senate, they keep improving as Trump keeps endorsing far right Trumpers for revenge purposes who stand a poor chance of winning in the general. Once again, Democrats should be thanking Trump profusely for all he has done to help them keep the senate. Senate election wise, Trump has been one of the biggest friends of the democrats so far this election cycle.
Rick, you need to send Trump a thank you note for helping the Democrats most likely keeping control of the senate. Without Trump, The GOP most certainly would have gained control with Biden at 38% approval and inflation still rising.
Ohio Ryan plus 2.1 – I don’t expect this to last. But it worth keeping an eye on. Miracles do happen now and then and this could be a big miracle that propels Ryan into presidential prospect for 2024.
Pennsylvania Fetterman plus 8.3 - This is a big one was it would be a democratic gain. I expect Fetterman to win with the Democrats ultimately in a 51-49 control come next year.
Arizona, the Republicans will choose their candidate next Tuesday. Probably another Trumper which will lose to Kelly, the democratic incumbent. There’s still Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina that are all close to 50-50, but the incumbents in those three has a slight advantage and should remain with the party that currently controls them.
The bottom line, I'd give the Democrats a 60-40 shot at retaining control of the senate, but only around 10% at keeping control of the house. My 18-20 Republican seat gain in the house still applies. From tjhe current 214 for the GOP to around 234 give or take a seat or two.
Rick, you need to send Trump a thank you note for helping the Democrats most likely keeping control of the senate. Without Trump.
Why would I do that? People with common sense have known the Dems will keep the Senate for months, because we know that anything Trump touches turns to crap.
LOL, fact is until the very recent primaries the pundits, prognosticators, forecasters were predicting the Republicans would regain both the house and the senate. In fact, I was the only one and still may be the only one having the Democrats gain a seat in the senate.
Inside editions forecast - Democrats have control of a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote. Current 2022 projection: GOP net gain of 1-3 seats. Republicans need a net gain of 1 seat for control.
The consensus forecast which includes Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, 538, fox, split ticket, elections daily, politico, CNanalyst has the Republicans at 49 seats, the Democrats at 47 seats with 4 pure tossup seats. Democratic held Georgia, Arizona and Nevada with Republican held Pennsylvania.
the difference is I give Pennsylvania to the Democrats along with the Democrats holding on to Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Had the Republicans nominated Black in Georgia, he’d probably have beaten Warnock, the same in PA with McCormick instead of OZ, the GOP probably would have retained that seat. Then you have Ohio which shouldn’t even be close except for Trump’s meddling. Arizona hasn't happened yet. But if not for Trump, the predicted GOP pickup of 1-3 seat most likely would have come true. So send Trump your thank you note.
Now I do take your post as a compliment as it seems I’m still the lone wolf in having the Democrats maintaining control of the senate.
When a politician was accused of having no common sense, that politician pulled out his coin purse to show one and all the amount of cents he had.
LOL, fact is until the very recent primaries the pundits, prognosticators, forecasters were predicting the Republicans would regain both the house and the senate.politician was accused of having no common sense, that politician pulled out his coin purse to show one and all the amount of cents he had.
Only poll readers like you were/are saying that.
The rest of us saw that the seditious, democracy-hating, rights-taking Republicans were going to lose support months ago. Why? Common sense. I've said common sense along. My posts are an open book and this can be verified.
You don't need to read a poll - common sense will tell you everything that you need to know.
There are barely half a million people in Wyoming. There's not a lot of wiggle room, but Cheney has begun mailing Democrats with instructions on how to change parties to vote for her in the primaries...
Her opponent had this to say about the effort...
Quote
“What Cheney doesn’t understand is that Democrats will drop her like a bad habit after she’s no longer useful to them on the Jan. 6 committee.”
She's right about that. Other than the Trump thing, Cheney stands opposed to everything Democrats believe.
You got that exactly right Greger. Once the Democrats have got their use of Cheney on the 1-6 committee, they’ll completely wash their hands of her. They’ll drop her like a ton of bricks.
I don't know what anyone expects Dems to do beyond that. Plenty of independents and Republicans cast votes for Joe Biden and frankly he wouldn't have won if not for that support, but once they'd gotten the use out of Joe, namely throwing Trump out to pasture, they threw Biden out like yesterday's garbage too.
Liz voted WITH Trump 90 percent of the time. Reread that...she didn't necessarily vote with other Republicans 90% of the time, she voted with TRUMP 90% of the time. Am I to surmise that people are miffed that Democrats aren't suddenly saying "You know, Liz Cheney's views are just what we Democrats need!" ??????
Is there something wrong with acknowledging and respecting Liz Cheney's devotion to the rule of law and the Constitution while simultaneously remaining in opposition to the rest of her political views? If there is, we can just hang it all up and welcome fascism and permanent autocratic rule, forget all of it and just welcome Trump back. Don't even hold an election, just crown the guy...we were wrong for opposing Liz.
You can see the third-party vote actually helped Clinton in 2016. It’s an old wife’s tale about third party vote always helping the GOP.
One instance in...how many? Nope sorry, doesn't change the fact that well over ninety percent of the time third party candidates siphon off votes to the benefit of Republicans. One outlier does not a liar make.
You'd have to reach all the way back to the Bull Moose Party to find another. But...tell ya what...if Trump runs as a third party candidate I may be proven wrong again.
You can see the third-party vote actually helped Clinton in 2016. It’s an old wife’s tale about third party vote always helping the GOP.
One instance in...how many? Nope sorry, doesn't change the fact that well over ninety percent of the time third party candidates siphon off votes to the benefit of Republicans. One outlier does not a liar make.
You'd have to reach all the way back to the Bull Moose Party to find another. But...tell ya what...if Trump runs as a third party candidate I may be proven wrong again.
Actually, I gave you two recent examples, Clinton benefiting from third party voting in 2016 and Warnock benefitting from third party voting in 2020. With out the Libertarian candidate drawing 2.6% of the vote, Perdue would have won as I showed you. Now if you’re only talking Presidential, there’s been others. But the third-party vote didn’t change the outcome. Like in 2016, Clinton benefited, but still lost.
Johnson Libertarian took some 1.3 million votes from Romney while Stein took 470,000 from Obama in 2012. Once again, the Democrat benefited more. Perot drew 25% of his vote total from Republicans along with 20% from Democrats, he helped Bill Clinton win. Anderson in 1980 took votes from Reagan, but Reagan won anyway. But if you want to believe that third party voters always help elect Republicans, feel free to do so. But you’d be wrong.
Whether Joe has low approval ratings or not, i like NOT having an internet troll for a POTUS.
I find it very refreshing not to have to hear on the news all of Trump’s twitter barrage. He ran government by twitter it seems. I may be a swing voter, but I’m not disappointed in Biden, I never expected him to do much if anything. He had one purpose in life, to beat Trump. Mission accomplished as far as I’m concerned. Biden was, is a transition president between Trump and whoever comes next.
I also don't think independents, as in mass has deserted him. If they had you'd be looking at a red wave this midterm. Most independents wanted Trump defeated, so they voted against Trump, but not necessarilly for Biden. I think this get lost on the Democrats. But I've harped on it quite a lot. The Democrats won the presidential in 2020, but lost the down ballot offices. That is a political reality.
I believe if one looks at independents, they still like Biden as a person, they still dislike Trump as a person and that is what preventing a red wave. Most folks laugh at me when I talke likes and dislikes, favorable and unfavorable opinions of the candidates. Gallup and Pew research began keeping track of this beginning with Truman. In every presidential election held since 1948, the candidate with the highest favorable rating, the candidate liked the most won the presidency with the lone exception of 2016. Trump had a 36% favorable to Clinton's 38% favorable, Trump won. But a caveat should be given as Clinton won the popular vote.
While the Republican poll numbers haven't moved much in response to the January 6th hearings, opinion among Independents has shifted. And there can be little doubt that the ceaseless drumbeat of criticism from [Trump's] own former staff and appointees as shown in the hearings has contributed to the Trump fatigue. Having to defend his actions against these accusations from fellow Republicans — members of his own White House — causes uncomfortable emotional dissonance and even his stalwart supporters are feeling the weight of it.
“Nationally, Democrats have fallen into this trap with their endless hearings on Jan. 6. Finding out the facts about that ugly day is a net benefit, but it won’t change the midterms one bit. Voters will base their choice on their lives in November 2022, not something that happened two years ago on the other side of the country.
In the same way, Arizonans are concerned with today’s problems and future solutions, not Donald Trump’s narrow loss of the state in 2020.”
You could take Arizonans and replace them with Georgians, Pennsylvanians, Ohioans, Nevadans or any other close state for the races for senators and governors.
“Nationally, Democrats have fallen into this trap with their endless hearings on Jan. 6. Finding out the facts about that ugly day is a net benefit, but it won’t change the midterms one bit. Voters will base their choice on their lives in November 2022, not something that happened two years ago on the other side of the country."
No, the hearings won't be over until every last Trump coup planner is jailed or imprisoned. We now find out that the two DHS officials deletedtheir J5 and J6 texts as well.
The J6 committee is now moving into the coverup phase of Trump's attempted coup.
If some Americans are tired of the hearings, eff them - no one is forcing them to learn, read, or hear about Trump's attempted coup. These people are just as guilty of aiding Trump's coup by turning a blind eye.
If the Democrats don’t retain control of the house, the hearings will end on 3 Jan 2023 at the latest if not before. I also think inflation, the economy, things that affect people’s daily lives today will have more of an effect on how they vote than something that happened over a year and a half ago. Of course, that’s just my opinion. I also think that both parties living in the past makes this year’s midterms very unique. Living in the past has thrown out historical norms and standards, tradition and wisdom. Neither party is talking about the future which I think is what voters, especially independents want to hear. Republicans and Democrats, no, they’re going to vote for their candidates whether they’re living in the past or have an eye on the future.
All of this has made this midterm a fascinating one. I’m loving every minute of it.
We're being told that we should not be living in the past worrying about stuff that happened on the other side of the country a year ago but it seems a lot of Republicans can't let go of Benghazi, emails, Hunter Biden's laptop and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
We're also hearing a lot of screeching about gas prices which are beyond control of any president but we're told voters don't care about that fact, so it matters anyway, and that's how it should be preserved because feelings trump facts. We're also being told that an attempt to overthrow a government isn't important...fascism isn't so bad.
Republicans who deny the 2020 election results have now moved closer to overseeing the voting process in five different states. Arizona could become No. 6 on Tuesday, when GOP voters there will decide in that state's primary whether they want to nominate one of the two election deniers running for secretary of state. But that doesn't matter either, so we're told.
If all this is really true, we're well and truly f****.
The withdrawal is what Pompeo negotiated and Trump signed. Those negations included the release of 5,000 Taliban bad guys. Gee, I wonder why Afghanistan fell so quickly?!? It couldn't be that 5,000 Taliban bad guys were released, could it?
Jeffrey, if you paid attention the article hit both parties about living in the past. I agree with the notion that it is issues and stuff that affect us today that has priority over either 1-6 or the 2020 election. Apparently most here on this site disagree with me on that. Most think 1-6 is the most important issue that will decide how folks vote this November. I think it’s the economy, inflation. You’re not being told anything, just being informed about how folks think about the 2020 election and 1-6 according to the numbers. People are tired of hearing about the stolen election and about Trump. Both parties are living in the past. I also stated that.
I’m also the type that doesn’t worry about things I have no control over or can’t help. Arizona is going to do what Arizona is going to do whether I wring my hands and fret like Hades over it, get a few ulcers or just wait and see what happens. I live in Georgia; I can’t vote in Arizona or any of these other states. If the Republicans want to nominate some odd ball nuts in Arizona, so be it. Chances are they’ll be defeated in the general. Mark Kelly is as of today approximately a 2-1 favorite to win Arizona’s senate seat. Katie Hobbs is at 3-2 for the governorship. Lake and Masters, if they win the GOP primary, it looks like they will, they are the poorest or worst candidates the republicans could choose for the general election. If I were a democrat living in Arizona, I’d want those two to be the GOP nominees, that would give the democrats a better chance of winning in November than some sane candidate.
But if you and others want to fret and worry, be my guest.
Slogans are nice, but rarely win elections. Political reality among the masses shows as of yesterday, the economy, inflation is the most important issue facing this nation today at 33%. 37% of independents, the non-affiliated, less to non-partisans place inflation, rising prices as number one. 1-6 doesn’t even make the list. Inflation may be temporary, but inflation is on most Americans minds today, not the 1-6 hearings.
Most folks just want Trump to go away, they’re tired of hearing about him. If going away means throwing him in jail, fine. If going away means Trump moves to Timbuktu to live out the rest of his life, they’re fine with that also. Just no more Trump. There’s plenty of other things in their lives, that affect their lives today that they deem way more important than getting revenge on Trump.
I believe that morality and the preservation of democracy will win over the ignorants voting with their pocket book - especially given that the GOP has made it harder for poor people to vote since 2020.
There’s plenty of other things in their lives, that affect their lives today that they deem way more important than getting revenge on Trump.
Let’s discuss inflation. Inflation is forcing a woman to give birth when she is not financially, emotionally, or psychologically ready for it. Or forcing a young couple into the same situation, Republican politicians have backed themselves into a corner and it’s their own fault and they need to be punished at the polls in November for doing so.
Given that 50% of Americans are women, the Republicans will take a schlacking in November. There are a lot if red state women who will tell their regressive husbands they’re voting Republican, then cast a different vote in the booth.
If you think so Rick. November will answer whether all those GOP women will vote Democratic. We'll just have to wait and see. I’d say Republican women are republican women because they agree with Republican party ideology and philosophy. I doubt you’ll see many republican women voting democratic this November. You’ll see Democratic women voting democratic. But they didn’t need the abortion issue to vote democratic, they were going so anyway. I still believe the abortion issue as being baked into the equation for the most part. Other events, happenings along with independents dislike of Trump is helping the Democrats out. Not abortion.
Independents, only 4% of independents list abortion as the top issue in deciding how they’ll vote. However, 36% list the economy/inflation as their most important issue in deciding how they’ll vote. What interesting is 89% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Democratic congressional candidates, 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for their congressional candidates. Those are down from historical averages of 94%.
But we’ll see, the Democrats in the generic congressional ballot has closed the gap from 2.5 GOP lead a month ago, 30 June to a 0.9 GOP lead today, 31 July. What hasn’t changed is the number of competitive, at risk of switching house seats, 54 total with 40 currently being democratic held seats to 14 for the Republicans. No change in the senate either with the Democrats gaining PA with the remaining senate seats staying the same.
Another interesting part of the figures, numbers, they’re showing Democrats gaining among white voters, but Republican gaining among blacks, Hispanics and Asian comparing the numbers to 2020 and how these groups are stating who they’ll vote for, although they’re way too many undecides to state his for a fact.But this seems to be the trend.
There are a lot of red state women who will tell their regressive husbands they’re voting Republican, then cast a different vote in the booth.
No. There aren't. You're grasping at straws. Conservatives will accept conservative rulings and move on. And whatever makes you think a majority of Republican women are pro-life? Or that abortion is an important issue to them?
That grocery bill though...? That's a pretty big issue every week.
Democrats have failed to instill confidence in their ability to govern. It will cost them a few seats in the House. Not a lot, and not unexpected, but enough to lose the majority.
There are a lot of reasons this could be strategically good for the Democrats. It might be the one single thing that could prevent a DeSantis presidency. Power ebbs and flows and, like water, it always takes a predictable course.
Both parties want all the power, all the time. It's not gonna happen. The American system is a pretty beautiful thing.
You can see the third-party vote actually helped Clinton in 2016. It’s an old wife’s tale about third party vote always helping the GOP.
One instance in...how many? Nope sorry, doesn't change the fact that well over ninety percent of the time third party candidates siphon off votes to the benefit of Republicans. One outlier does not a liar make.
You'd have to reach all the way back to the Bull Moose Party to find another. But...tell ya what...if Trump runs as a third party candidate I may be proven wrong again.
Actually, I gave you two recent examples, Clinton benefiting from third party voting in 2016 and Warnock benefitting from third party voting in 2020. With out the Libertarian candidate drawing 2.6% of the vote, Perdue would have won as I showed you. Now if you’re only talking Presidential, there’s been others. But the third-party vote didn’t change the outcome. Like in 2016, Clinton benefited, but still lost.
Johnson Libertarian took some 1.3 million votes from Romney while Stein took 470,000 from Obama in 2012. Once again, the Democrat benefited more. Perot drew 25% of his vote total from Republicans along with 20% from Democrats, he helped Bill Clinton win. Anderson in 1980 took votes from Reagan, but Reagan won anyway. But if you want to believe that third party voters always help elect Republicans, feel free to do so. But you’d be wrong.
James Carville said it clearly:"Ralph Nader basically elected GWB in 2000. Jill Stein basically elected Trump in 2016." In PA,WI &MI Hillary lost by a mere 77k votes;there were 800k 3rd party votes in PA,WI & MI.
You can see the third-party vote actually helped Clinton in 2016. It’s an old wife’s tale about third party vote always helping the GOP.
One instance in...how many? Nope sorry, doesn't change the fact that well over ninety percent of the time third party candidates siphon off votes to the benefit of Republicans. One outlier does not a liar make.
You'd have to reach all the way back to the Bull Moose Party to find another. But...tell ya what...if Trump runs as a third party candidate I may be proven wrong again.
Actually, I gave you two recent examples, Clinton benefiting from third party voting in 2016 and Warnock benefitting from third party voting in 2020. With out the Libertarian candidate drawing 2.6% of the vote, Perdue would have won as I showed you. Now if you’re only talking Presidential, there’s been others. But the third-party vote didn’t change the outcome. Like in 2016, Clinton benefited, but still lost.
Johnson Libertarian took some 1.3 million votes from Romney while Stein took 470,000 from Obama in 2012. Once again, the Democrat benefited more. Perot drew 25% of his vote total from Republicans along with 20% from Democrats, he helped Bill Clinton win. Anderson in 1980 took votes from Reagan, but Reagan won anyway. But if you want to believe that third party voters always help elect Republicans, feel free to do so. But you’d be wrong.
James Carville said it clearly:"Ralph Nader basically elected GWB in 2000. Jill Stein basically elected Trump in 2016." In PA,WI &MI Hillary lost by a mere 77k votes;there were 800k 3rd party votes in PA,WI & MI.
2016 Johnson, Libertarian received more votes and took more votes from Trump in those 3 deciding states than Stein took from Clinton.
Michigan Johnson 172,136 votes 3.6% to Stein’s 57,463 1.1% Pennsylvania Johnson 146,715 2.4% to Stein’s 49,941 0.8% Wisconsin Johnson 106,674 3.6% to Stein’s 31,072 1.0%
As to you can from above, Libertarian, third party candidate Johnson cost Trump many more votes than Stein cost Clinton. I didn’t include the conservative candidate Evan McMullen which also cost Trump some votes. You can check out the figures here:
Stein may have taken 138,476 from Clinton in those three deciding states, but Johnson took quite a lot more from Trump, 425,525 votes to be exact. Once again, third party candidates hurt the GOP or in this case, Trump much more than the Democrats, Hillary Clinton. In fact, without third party votes, Trump would have edged Clinton in the popular vote 49.4 to 49.3, again not counting conservative Evan McMullen who received 0.54% of the nationwide vote which would have put Trump at 49.95%. You do have other third parties which received 0.84%, I don’t have the foggiest how they would have voted between Trump and Clinton.
There are a lot of red state women who will tell their regressive husbands they’re voting Republican, then cast a different vote in the booth.
No. There aren't. You're grasping at straws. Conservatives will accept conservative rulings and move on.
Many "conservative" women are not really conservative. They're "conservative" because they're husbands will beat them if they aren't. Don't fool yourself.
Of course there are conservative women: Laura Ingraham, Liz Cheney...but there are also many women in red states who are closeted Liberals for fear of being punched in the face by their husbands.
There are a lot of red state women who will tell their regressive husbands they’re voting Republican, then cast a different vote in the booth.
No. There aren't. You're grasping at straws. Conservatives will accept conservative rulings and move on. And whatever makes you think a majority of Republican women are pro-life? Or that abortion is an important issue to them?
That grocery bill though...? That's a pretty big issue every week.
Democrats have failed to instill confidence in their ability to govern. It will cost them a few seats in the House. Not a lot, and not unexpected, but enough to lose the majority.
There are a lot of reasons this could be strategically good for the Democrats. It might be the one single thing that could prevent a DeSantis presidency. Power ebbs and flows and, like water, it always takes a predictable course.
Both parties want all the power, all the time. It's not gonna happen. The American system is a pretty beautiful thing.
I’ve found out Greger is people will believe what they want to believe regardless of the facts, whether they’re right, wrong or indifferent. A lot of these I call old wife’s tales. Some examples, high voter turnout always benefits the Democrats. Wrong, stats show roughly a 50-50 split whether it’s high, low or average voter turnout. Another with Jeffrey, third party voters cost the Democrats votes, wrong, most of the time, they cost the GOP candidates votes. Mainly because the Libertarian Party is the strongest or largest of the third parties and they’re usually on all 50 state ballots. Most other third parties are on a fraction of that. But there are exceptions as in 2000 where Nader cost Gore the election. Or did he since the Democrats had a 7-point advantage in party affiliation in Nov 2000 but only a 4-point advantage among those who turned out to vote, a 39-35 democratic advantage. Bush also won independents evening things out. Same for 2016 when the democrats had a 6-point advantage in party affiliation, but just a 4-point advantage among those who turned out to vote 37-33. Trump also won the independent vote and thus the white house in a fluke election.
Regardless, from what I’ve been able to determine, the Trump factor has much more to do with the limited damage the Democrats will receive this midterm than abortion, mass shootings or anything else. I also attribute the small gain in the generic congressional ballot by the democrats to the drop in gas prices along with more shelves in the store being full than abortion or any other issue. This is me though.
I simply can’t see how the GOP platform of turning their back in women’s rights, turning their back on gun victims, turning their back on our vets is a winning strategy. Common sense tells me the there will be a GOP shellacking in the November 2022 mid-terms.
As far as the economy, we have 3.6% unemployment, there are 11m job openings, wages are up. Sounds like someone is pissing on my leg and trying very hard to convince me that it’s raining.
…and all of the above in the backdrop of the outing of the GOP as the party of insurrectionists, where insurrectionists are still in government and still actively trying to dismantle democracy.
Sounds like there is an effort around here to shovel a pile of horse droppings and convince the rest of us that what we smell is actually rose petals.
Rick, all I’m doing is passing on the numbers. I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything. Just letting one and all know how America as a whole, not just Democrats nor just Republicans, everyone. How they are viewing the upcoming election today. You can either like the cold hard numbers, disliked them, toss them out the window or do whatever floats your boat with them. If the election were held today, you’d see the Republican retake control of the house probably by around a 230-205 margin. While the Democrats a net gain of one senate seat. We still have a bit over 3 months to go, a lot can happen between now and then. I’d remember one thing, because you have a certain ideology, beliefs, how you look at the political world doesn’t mean everyone else does the same or has the same views. Each of us are different and we view happenings and events different. There’s a big difference between the two of us, you’re a very partisan, loyal democrat, I’m a swing voter, no loyalty to either major party. Abortion for me isn’t a hot issue, I’m interested in abortion only to the extent on how it effects and plays out in the upcoming midterms. I’m one of those who would rather abortion be legal, but it isn’t an issue I base my vote on. I think there are many, many more like me out there than you’d expect or think.
Good luck my friend. I think yours is more of the heart speaking. Nothing wrong in that, hope springs eternal. Mine, going by hard number today is the GOP retakes the house, but the Democrats keep the senate. Those numbers are dynamic, they change. Yes indeed, November will answer all.
Nonetheless...Republican women aren't going to vote for Democrats. You're pissing on your own leg if you believe that.
Welp, they voted for Clinton in '92 and Obama in 08.
The problem is exit polls don’t break down the gender vote into Republican women, Democratic women, just men and women. No way to know how just Republican women voted in either 1992 or 2008. Women did indeed vote for Clinton and Obama, that's all women, no break down as in Republican, democratic, independent. Here
Even men, by one and two points voted for Obama and Bill Clinton in 2008 and 1992. Now if you scroll down a bit, you’ll find white women voted 41-41 for Clinton and Bush in 1992 while in 2008 white women voted 53-46 for McCain over Obama. Knowing this, I would wager, assume if you like since there’s no hard numbers on this that GOP women did vote for Bush slightly over Bill Clinton and for McCain over Obama. Remember not all white women are Republicans, they’re also Democrats and independents.
...You can either like the cold hard numbers, disliked them, toss them out the window or do whatever floats your boat with them...
One of us is going to be correct in a few months. From what I am reading, it will most likely be me.
So what are you reading that forecasts Democrats holding the house? If what you are reading and what you are writing are similar then I suggest you review your sources.
Republican men don't typically beat their liberal wives and force them to vote against their will...in numbers great enough to affect an election. I'm not saying Republican men don't all beat their wives, I'm just saying they don't marry liberals.
Perhaps you could link me to whatever you're reading that supports such claptrap?
I think we already have ten bucks on this but I will happily make it a C-note.
House will fall, Senate will stand. Loser pushes the Donate button to pay up.
A sixteen-seat loss is the best they could hope for if the election was held today.
We haven’t looked at governorship races. Republicans hold a 27-23 advantage today. Republican held Massachusetts and Maryland are guaranteed to be Democratic pickups. Republican Arizona is likely to go to Democratic for Hobbs depending on whether Lake is the GOP nominee or not. GOP held Georgia leans Republican, Kemp over Abrams. That’s should be 3 governorships the Democrat pickup this November with Georgia being a possible 4th.
But on the Democratic side, Democratic held Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin lean Democratic, Pennsylvania is likely Democratic as Shapiro has an 8-point lead which borders on solid. Chances are we’re looking at the Democrats picking up 3-4 governorships this November if these numbers hold. That would give the Democrats a 26-24 advantage, perhaps a 27-23 edge depending on Georgia. But keep an eye on Kansas, Nevada and Wisconsin, all democratic held governors, all lean democratic which means these 3 races are competitive with the democrat having a slight advantage. Trump has been a big help for the democrats in the governor’s races, his endorsed candidates make very poor general election candidates. Makes me wonder who’s side Trump is on?
No change in the house or senate, 18-20 GOP gain in the house, a 1 seat gain in the senate for the democrats.
At any rate, everything is speculation until it happens.
That story about liberal women marrying conservative men isn't speculation, Rick, it's pure fiction.
Do you even know any women? They aren't well known for keeping their opinions to themselves.
Pero! That's excellent news about the governorships! I had no idea...
I usually don’t do governorships. But I read an article that piqued my interest. So, I took a gander. I firmly believe that with Trump endorsing and the Republicans going along with his lousy general election candidates, the senate and governor races would be different if the GOP hadn't gone along with their grand poobah choices. It pays to have the head of a party with a ton of pull bent on revenge instead of winning elections. Winning the general election that is. The Democrats can rack in the dividends of Trump’s revenge choices.
538 now has the Dems taking the Senate. Those of us with common sense knew that would happen back February when we saw the quality of candidates the Rs were running.
Tonight, hopefully a lot of Trump Rs will win their primaries - so they can be defeated in the general in November.
Trump announced his thoughts on the Missouri Senate contest Monday night, he called for the election of “a MAGA Champion and True Warrior to the U.S. Senate.” Wife and child beater (allegedly!) Trump endorsed Eric Greitens lost his primary bid to represent Missouri in the Senate.
Which is probably good news for the Democrats which a month ago, 3 July the Republicans had a 2.0-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. Just remember the generic congressional ballot is a nationwide ballot for congress, it isn’t district by district.
Here is a site that list 7 different pundit forecasts for the House. I like to go through them and average them out as all are different. This averaging of mine is where I come up with my 18-20 seat gain which is going district by district and not relying on the nationwide generic congressional ballot.
They average out to 183 safe Republican seats to 152 safe seats for the Democrats, 21 likely Republican seats to 23 for the democrats along with 13 races that lean Republican to 18 that lean democratic with 25 seats/races in the pure tossup column. If one adds up the safe, likely and lean for each party, it comes out to 217 for the Republicans and 193 for the Democrats with 25 seats/races remaining in the pure tossup column. Meaning to take control the Republicans would need to win 1 out of 25 whereas the Democrats would have to win all 25 and not lose a single tossup race.
I don’t agree with all those forecasters and pundits are putting out. I rate 200 safe seats for the GOP, 181 for the Democrats with 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts as of 3 Aug 2022. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. I place the probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.
Apparently seven of Trump's endorsed MAGAts won their primaries in MI. It will be interesting to watch how these candidates will fare in general election polling.
...and the AZ results are not even final, but it looks like many of Trump's endorsed MAGAts will win their primaries too.
In other words, lots of opportunities for the Dems to pick up seats in November.
Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) lost his primary to a nutty, lying, conspiratorial Trump MAGAt. Now convince me the sane and rational Michiganians will vote THAT.
What I found interesting in the article, poll, these are what interested me.
1. In a striking expression of the profound pessimism and polarization currently afflicting U.S. politics — as well as a growing aversion to both parties’ presidential front-runners — a plurality of registered voters now say it would be “the worst thing that could happen” if either President Biden (39%) or former President Donald Trump (41%) were to win the White House again in 2024, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
Only about half as many voters say a second Trump term would be "the best thing that could happen" (22%). A mere 8% say the same about a second Biden term.
2. Just 16% of Americans agree that they’re “well represented by the Democratic and Republican parties," while 40% choose the alternative statement: "America needs a new political party that's positioned in the political center between the Democrats and Republicans."
Similarly, 40% "want the option to vote for a third-party candidate for president in 2024 who is positioned in the political center between the Democrats and Republicans” — including 55% of independents, 53% of political moderates, 40% of Biden voters and 40% of Trump voters. Asked to describe the priorities of elected officials, 37% of Americans say Democratic priorities are “too extreme”; 40% say the same about Republican priorities.
Joe Biden was not elected POTUS for his platform. Joe was elected for one reason only: To block Trump from being re-elected. If Manchin comes thru and gives Joe a win in the next week or so, Joe would have accomplished a lot for one term POTUS.
I'm ok with Joe bowing out for 2024 and getting someone like Newsom in.
I think you got this one right. Biden was elected to get rid of Trump. To be a transition president between Trump and whoever comes next. Nothing more, nothing less.
Joe Biden was not elected POTUS for his platform. Joe was elected for one reason only: To block Trump from being re-elected. If Manchin comes thru and gives Joe a win in the next week or so, Joe would have accomplished a lot for one term POTUS.
I'm ok with Joe bowing out for 2024 and getting someone like Newsom in.
Newsom? Eh...okay I'll vote for him if he's the candidate but my preference is this guy.
I like Fetterman, he’s unique. But he will have been a senator for just 2 years. He in my opinion would be a great VP selection. I’m rooting for a Duckworth/Fetterman ticket in 2024.
I I’m rooting for a Duckworth/Fetterman ticket in 2024.
Why? So the independents will have a ticket to vote against?
How do you figure? In both Duckworth and Fetterman, there’s a lot there for independents to like. Both have the ability to connect with independents whereas a lot of other do not. Obama, Bill Clinton, Reagan recently had that ability and all won the independent vote.
I’m probably getting way ahead of myself, I believe the midterms will have a direct affect on the 2024 presidential and who gets vaulted or demoted as far as both party’s candidates who will quest the nomination.
I decided to post this today as the changes in the senate over the last 2 weeks has all been in the Democrats favor. But in the house, despite the Republican generic congressional ballot lead has dropped from 2.2 a month ago and from 1.8 2 weeks ago to 0.3 today according to RCP, the number of at risk, switchable seats for the democrats rose by 1 from 40 to 41 over the same time frame.
Senate and House update 4 Aug 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – AZ D Kelly from +2 to +3, NH D Hassan from +3 to +4, NC R Budd from +2 to +1, PA D Fetterman from +3 to +4
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50 Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 49 D 51 Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson +2 Republican hold R 49 D 51
Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. Pennsylvania looks like the only seat to change hands, giving the Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the senate.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 221 Democrats, 214 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the House. There are 55 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 41 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 4 Aug 2022, 180 Democratic, 200 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.
It's way too early for me to pick a favorite. I saw it floated in an opinion piece someplace that AOC should throw her hat in the ring. I didn't even click on it. Although we are somewhat ideologically aligned, I just don't think she's got the chops for the job.
But then, maybe nobody is really prepared for the level of headaches that come with the job.
Dang! A FANTASTIC jobs report, unemployment at 3.5%, gas prices are down, and another new all-Dem Bill passing tomorrow called the "Inflation-Fighting Act."
With this "Inflation Reduction Bill" win later today, after Labor Day, all Dems have to do is sync their messaging and hammer into the American body electorate, that the GOP has opposed every good thing that Dems have done.
Ol' Joe is already starting to do this by critiquing Trump's presidency. This needs to continue.
Harris won't be voted in as POTUS, she can forget that dream. America is not ready for a female POTUS.
I agree, and my favorite possible candidate is Buttigieg because I think America is ready for a gay president.
But the Democratic Party and its voters might decide she is the anointed one, the only arrow in the quiver that will kill the evil DeSantis. Any "woke" candidate is gonna take a beating from the Reeps. Nobody in their right mind would call her "woke".
Was it the abortion issue or was it the drop in gas prices that allowed the Democrats to close the gap in the generic congressional ballot? Going by hard numbers from 24 June-24 July which showed little to no change in either the generic congressional ballot and or the number of competitive/at risk/switchable seats in the house during that time frame. If the overturning of Roe was to cause a change in voting preference, it should have shown by the end of July. However, once gas prices started to drop, at the end of July we had that change in the generic congressional ballot of where 2.5-point lead for the GOP dropped to an 0.1 lead. Gas dropped from around 5 dollars a gallon down to around 4 dollars over the last two weeks. The abortion issue has been with us since 24 June which led to no change in either the generic or the number of competitive/at risk seats until gas prices began to drop.
However, since 24 June to 24 July while gas prices remained at around 5 dollars the at-risk seats failed to change, the same as no change in the generic congressional ballot. Even with the drop in gas prices since 24 July to today the number of competitive/at risk/switchable seats for the Democrats went up 2 from 40 to 42, the GOP at risk seats rose from 13 to 14 while the generic congressional ballot has become a tie. The question then becomes, was it the abortion issue or the drop in gas prices or perhaps neither or both that caused the drop in the generic ballot while at risk seats remained basically the same. Could the drop in the generic congressional ballot come from pro-abortion folks deciding on voting Democratic in the northeast? That wouldn’t change the district by district numbers as there’re few Republicans up there, example Massachusetts 8 dem, 0 Rep, or on the west coast, which also has few Republican members of congress. Democratic strong holds. The change would have to take place in the south, the Midwest and the plain states to affect the district by district numbers where the Democrats are outnumbered except in states like Illinois. It does the Democrats no good if instead of winning their districts 60-40 in the Northeast and west coast, they now win them 70-30 or 75-25. Which would account for the generic ballot to become even while district by district remains the same.
Remember, the generic congressional ballot is nationwide, not district by district. The old real estate motto or slogan, location, location, location applies to the house elections and could explain the tie in the generic congressional ballot vs. the district by district counting.
Speaking of location, location, location, I decided to compare how the different regions of the country plan on voting this November along with how the abortion issue is felt region by region. First the generic congressional ballot by region. This ties into my previous post about the Northeast west coast having few Republicans while the Midwest except for Illinois and the south has few democrats.
Second the abortion issue – To make this simpler, I narrowed this down to two categories, 1. Abortion legal in all cases and or legal in most cases except late term abortion. Category 2 All abortion illegal or legal only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape. No other reason or circumstance allowed.
Northeast 66% all or most cases, 34% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape. Midwest 55% all or most cases, 45% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape. South 53% all or most cases, 45% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape. West 62% all or most cases, 37% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape. Nationwide 61% all or most cases, 39% illegal or only in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest or rape.
I will probably get a lot of feed back that having abortion legal in the case of the mother’s life in danger, incest and rape still makes those people pro-legal abortion or pro-choice. But how many of the pro-legal abortion crowd would accept abortion being legal only in the case of the mother’s life, incest and rape with no other exceptions or circumstances? I would say hardly any, which allows me to place the mother’s life, incest and rape along side of abortion being illegal in all case.
Was it the abortion issue or was it the drop in gas prices that allowed the Democrats to close the gap in the generic congressional ballot?
Better yet: Was it the lame-ass conspiratorial, insurrection-loving Republicans running for office andinoffice to influence sane, decent voters to say: I'm not voting for those creeps!
After 16 hours of voting, the U.S. Senate passed the Inflation Reduction Act, positioning Democrats on the verge of a legislative victory for several key party agenda items, with Kamala Harris as the tie breaker.
All the GOP has to run on in 2022 is that we're the party of white nationalist fascism and we WILL take your Rights away.
When you’re the party out of power, you are running as the alternative to the party in power. The party out of power doesn’t have to stand for a thing or run on anything. It is what the party in power has done or hasn’t done to either to make folks happy with them with the voters wanting to maintain the status quo, keeping them in power or mad at them wanting to give the alternative party a chance. It’s quite simple.
Moral of the story don’t make independents mad or angry at you or take them out of their comfort zone if you’re the party in power. Clinton did in 1994, Bush in 2006, Obama in 2010 and Trump in 2018. The result, a wave election against the party in power.
1994 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 56-42 margin. Republicans gained 54 house seats. 2006 independents voted Democratic congressional candidates by a 57-39 over Republicans. Democrats gained 33 house seats. 2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates. Republicans gained 63 house seats. 2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin. Democrats gained 44 house seats.
The difference between 2022 and the above is independents aren’t angry, they dissatisfied, unhappy, but not angry. Hence, no red wave. Independents also don’t trust a Trump led alternative to the party in power they’re very dissatisfied with. Much like the 2020 election, we’ll get a split decision. 2020, the democrats won the presidency, lost down ballot. 2022, the Republicans take back the house, the democrats retain the senate.
Every, single Republican in the House and Senate voted NOT to cap insulin at $35.00. THAT's a problem for the GOP in November.
In fact, Chuck Grassley is already lying about it and saying he DID vote for the cap and that the Dems blocked it. (Reality is it's the other way around). THAT in and of itself tells you that there is a problem with how the GOP just voted. I suppose the 88 year old coot can always claim dementia.
Lying by elected officials is not freedom of speech - it's an abuse of power. Your mileage may vary.
2022 in NOT a normal cycle thanks to Donald Trump. Past election performance is not indicative of future results. I can't make this fact more clear.
Past election performance would guarantee even bigger losses for Democrats in November.
Thanks to Trump, no red wave has appeared and the midterm losses will be minimal.
And as far as "normal" election cycles go...we can be assured that Democrats will come out in fair numbers to vote for Democrats. We can also surmise, given the evidence before us, that Republicans will come out in fair numbers to vote for Republicans.
Independents will vote in moderate numbers for both parties. That's pretty normal stuff.
It's up to the local and state candidates to make their case before the court of public opinion.
How does Donald Trump change anything? Besides getting Dems a little bump from independents who still hate him.
What I have found Greger is that past election results mean little since the arrival of Trump. By historical standards, Trump should have lost in 2016. Only states like Michigan, Pennsylvania which had voted 6 straight presidential elections for Democrats along with Wisconsin which voted 8 straight times for the Democratic candidate went to Trump in 2016. What were the odds all three would buck their historical trend which had been in place for so long? I got all three of those states wrong. For Trump to win in 2016 the earth, moon, sun, all the planets along with all the galaxies had to align perfectly which they did.
2022, so far at lest is another election where historical standards don’t apply. With Biden at 39% overall approval, history says the Democrats should lose 40 plus seats in the house, 6 senate seats along with 5 governors. A red wave in other words. Ain’t gonna happen. A loss of 18-20 house seats, way below a wave election standard, a gain of a senate seat, maybe two. A gain of 3 or possibly 4 governors, what the heck is going on? Of course, my answer is Trump. Because of him the GOP has four lousy senate candidates in states the Republicans should win along with a couple of governor candidates. Then there’s independents who really dislike Trump. Historical standards are being turned upside down.
2020 was another election where historical standards failed big time. Winning the presidency by 7 plus million votes one would expect coat tails, a pickup of 30-40 house seats instead of losing 13 which the democrats did. Not only that, the democrats lost a governor and 2 state legislatures. 2020 was the first time since 1884 where a candidate wins the popular vote via the presidency and loses house seats. The big difference is Biden won by 7 plus million and lost 13 house sets. Grover Cleveland won by a mere 58,000 and lost 8 house seats. No comparison. Crazy times we live in.
Historical standards are being turned upside down.
Mostly in favor of democrats at this point.
Trump was a fluke and guaranteed to go down in flames from the very first time he descended that escalator making unfounded racist claims.
He was the revenge of a racist nation against the former Black president and everything he stood for.
If not for the Pandemic he would still be the president today. But he fumbled that ball so badly that he lost all but the most hardcore partisans. America was sick of his antics.
The coming elections are not a referendum on Trump and he's not a candidate. Everybody knows what he did and everybody knows he's guilty, whether they admit it or not.
Everybody also knows we're in the throes of a worldwide shortage of random things, unreasonable price fluctuations, and rising interest rates, which are mostly the result of pandemic-related changes in demand and supply, none of which have anything to do with Trump. Or even Biden really, unless you need a political scapegoat,
The coming elections are not about Donald Trump. They are about current conditions and events in the US and how much confidence America has in the current party vs their faith in the other party doing a better job...
Democrats are going to perform very well in November. They aren't going to keep the House but they're gonna do better than history says they should.
Oh, and the cool thing is that partisan Republicans believe a red wave is inevitable and they are going to take both houses by wide margins!
They'll be screaming about rigged elections again, but that horse has left the barn.
Nothing makes me happier than imagining the tears of disappointment in the eyes of my enemies.
It will do the Democrats no harm to lose the House by a narrow margin and may be a plus as far as 2024 goes. Biden can more or less rest on his laurels and rule by decree for the second half of his term, and if House Republicans act foolishly Trumpish enough over the next two years, independents will remember their hate for Trump and pin it onto DeSantis.
Numbers wise today, I say you’re correct Greger. But I still think Trump is the invisible elephant in the room. With Trump’s endorsements along with his followers going along with his endorsements, mainly for revenge. The Republicans have 4 which should be easily beaten candidates running for senate seats. Would the Republicans nominate them without Trump’s backing? I don’t know since he did back them and usually Republicans go along with anything Trump.
Pre-Trump, when a president had an approval rating of around 40%, independents swamped the out of power party with their votes into the in-power party. They went and voted big for the party out of power. 1994 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 56-42 margin. 2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans. 2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates. 2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin.
Why not in 2022? Have independents all of a sudden become much more politically and worldly smart which they weren’t in the four above listed examples? I doubt that, they’re not political junkies and rarely follow the day to day grind of politics and goings on Washington D.C. It’s true, Trump isn’t on the ballot, but his specter hangs over this election big time to include backing and getting nominated lousy candidates for the general election.
Independents think both major parties suck. Perhaps, although independents think Biden and company has done a very lousy job, they don’t want a return to anything Trump or his backed candidates, party. Maybe? It seems I’ve been trying to make sense of this upcoming election, what is happening with it as it shouldn’t be happening, the only explanation is Trump. Not that independents all of a sudden struck gold in the political brain matter game. 45% of independents still blame Biden a lot for inflation, rising prices, 33% blame Biden some. Just looking at that, it doesn’t seem to me independents just got smarter with a snap of the fingers.
Latest on the governor races, below the competitive races along with the changes in party. Currently the Republicans have 27 governors to 23 for the Democrats. Once this is over, the Democrats gain at least 3 giving them a 26-24 lead with a very close race going on in Georgia which at the moment favors the Republican Kemp, but could go to the Democrats giving them a net gain of 4 governors.
Arizona Open D Hobbs over R Lake Democratic gain Kansas Incumbent D Kelly slight lead over R Schmidt Democratic hold Georgia Incumbent R Kemp slight lead over D Abrams Republican hold Maryland Open D Moore over R Cox Democratic gain Massachusetts Open D Healey over R Diehl Democratic gain Michigan Incumbent D Whitmer over R Dixon Democratic hold Nevada incumbent D Sisolak over R Lombardo Democratic hold Pennsylvania Open D Shapiro over R Mastriano Democratic hold Wisconsin incumbent D Evers over R Michels Democratic hold
Once Labor Day passes and when polls really start being taken seriously, the Democrats have a lot to crow about against do-nothing, obstructionist Republicans.
Dems need effective TV ads touting what they have done in two years vs what Republicans did in four under Trump.
Is America better off than two years ago?
Refrigerated trucks are no being used as mobile morgues
Millions upon millions of people are no longer out of work
Schools are no long shutting down because the president of the United States put his feckless son-in-law in charge of getting personal protective equipment to the states - and kept the money for himself
Pudgy whey-faced creeps are no longer stone cold killing people at protests against police brutality
Two years later, kids are back in school, only regular morgues are necessary now, the unemployment rate is the lowest it's been in 50 years, wages have risen, inflation has slowed, and Jared Kushner is $2 billion richer thanks to an investment in his "hedge fund" from the Saudi government.
The posts are simply to reinforce the fact that Republicans are do-nothing, obstructionists that have become fascist anti-Americans, who support espionage by a former POTUS and why vote for them?
You’re not anti-America Jeff. Agree about the vertical display.
The simplest thing in the world: Shooting stills? Hold the camera any way you wish. Shooting VIDEO? Hold the camera in horizontal (landscape) mode because TV sets and computer screens are horizontal. The ONLY time vertical video makes sense is when it is PHONE to PHONE video, like FaceTime, or Skype or just any phone call with video.
Manufacturers could easily program phones to shoot video in landscape mode by DEFAULT if they wanted. For vertical, they can just add a button or program the phone to shoot vertical in video calls only. There is NO such thing as default vertical TELEVISION displays.
In fact, manufacturers can and DO make full frame image sensors and have done so for a very long time, so if they wanted, they could design the phones so they shoot video in landscape mode even when the phone is held vertically, the sensor just "windows" itself to fit the aspect ratio needed, which in the case of TV, is 16:9 or MAYBE 4:3....but 9:16/3:4 never needs to be an option because in film and TV land it simply does not exist and never has.
The Trump factor, according to Rosenberg, is key. For the past several election cycles, nothing has united Democratic voters more than the chance to vote against him. And all summer Trump has been back in the news, thanks to revelations from testimony in the House’s January 6th hearings; the F.B.I. search of Mar-a-Lago, for classified documents improperly taken from the White House; and endless speculation about whether Trump will be indicted or run again for President—or both.
I agree the Trump factor has prevented a red wave. The Trump factor is the key to the Democrats retaining control of the senate and gaining 3-4 governors. The Trump factor is what is holding the losses in the house to under the red wave criteria of 30 plus seats. But the Trump factor as of today isn’t going to stop the loss of the House. The Republicans need a net gain of just 4 seats. The important numbers are the competitive, switchable, at risk districts, 56 of them held by 42 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 19 Aug 2022, 179 Democratic, 200 Republican. Which translates into a probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.
One big reason is retirements and those Democrats running for high office. 22 Democrats have retired vs. 10 for the Republicans. 9 current house Democrats are running for higher office vs. 8 for the Republicans. Open seats which are much easier to switch than beating an incumbent stand at 31 Democrats, 18 Republicans.
Another number, the Democrats have 179 safe seats which aren’t going change, which means the Democrats in order to retain the senate must win 39 of the 56 contested seats which the Republicans need to win 18 out of 56. Also keep in mind the Democrats won the gerrymandering wars during redistricting, a plus 10 seats. Without those 10 additional gerrymandered safe seats for the Democrats, there would be no question or hope for the Democrats retaining the house.If my some miricle the democrats retain control of the house, it will be because of gerrymandering regardless of the Trump factor.
The senate is a whole different ball game. Thanks to Trump the GOP fielded a bunch of very poor general election candidates. Hats off to Trump for helping the Democrats there.
...there would be no question or hope for the Democrats retaining the house.If my some miricle the democrats retain control of the house, it will be because of gerrymandering regardless of the Trump factor.
Unless decent folks who normally vote one way decide to "throw the bums out" and vote for decent human beings to make good choices for them.
No, Rick, I'd be delighted if the Dems held the house! I'd be delighted if Trump was locked up for the rest of his life, too!
I just don't think either is going to happen so I don't fantasize about them.
Pero has pointed out many times what the axioms to the 2022 election equation are and his prediction for the outcome.
I think Dems might beat the odds and perform better than Pero suggests, but still not well enough to keep the House. I base this solely on events that have not happened but might.
If Biden's numbers go up House-seat losses will come down. But right now, if the election were held today...Pero's prediction is probably dead on.
It's not what any of us wants but it's the most realistic election forecast your gonna find anywhere.
I understand what you’re saying, but it doesn’t work that way. I go by cold hard numbers, not the heart. History shows that those who affiliate or call themselves Republicans and or democrats will vote 94% of the time on average for candidates of their party. It doesn’t matter if the other party is promising things good for you or doing things that are good for you or not. Party loyalty remains supreme. 94% of Republicans voted for Trump in 2020, 94% of democrats voted for Biden. 2018 midterms, 94% of Republicans again voted for GOP candidates, 95% of Democrats voted for their candidates. 2016 was a bit of an anomaly where 89% of Democrats voted for Clinton, 88% of Republicans for Trump and so on back to Reagan. All told, on average, 94% each party’s base will vote for their candidates.
Independents are all over the place. 2000 independents voted for G.W. Bush 47-46 over Gore, independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 49-47 over Democratic congressional candidates. 2002 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates 51-45 over Democratic congressional candidates. 2004 independents voted for Bush by a 49-48 margin over Kerry. Independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 50-46 margin over Democratic congressional candidates. 2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republicans. 2008 independents voted for Obama by a 52-44 margin over McCain. Independents voted 52-45 for Democratic congressional candidates. 2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democratic congressional candidates 2012 independents voted for Romney by a 51-48 margin, Independents voted 50-49 for Republican congressional candidates. 2014 independents voted 54-42 for Republican congressional candidates 2016 Independents voted for Trump 46-42 with 12% voting third party. In congressional election independents voted Republican 51-47. 2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin. 2020 Independents voted for Biden 54-41 with 5% voting third party. In Congressional elections independents voted Democratic 49-48.
Those who identify with either major party, their votes are set in stone. Independents are finicky and as you can see above, are all over the place. Today, 40% of independents say they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidates vs. 36% who say they’ll vote for the Democratic congressional candidates with a whopping 24% undecided, not sure. It’s different in the senate, 42% of independents state they’ll vote Democratic in the senate vs. 32% for Republican senate candidates with the rest undecided, not sure. The big difference is only 34 states have senate elections this year vs. all 50 for the house. Which state have senate elections is why there are a big difference in how independents plan on voting for the house and the senate. 16 states don’t have a senate election this year.
I clicked on the link, they want my e-mail address before I can proceed. I didn’t proceed. But yes, to a certain extent you’re correct. There’s always a few that vote differently, some like lying to pollsters. This is one reason for the margin of error in the polls. Most of the polls I cite have a margin of error of plus or minus 3% which is average for most election polls. Earlier I stated independents plan on voting for Republican congressional candidate by a 40-36 margin. A 4-point lead for the GOP. Factor in the MOE, the lead may be as high as 7 points or as low as 1 point.
If you take the 2020 presidential election, RCP which averages out all polls had Biden winning by 7.2 points. He won by 4.5. So what RCP was telling us with a MOE of plus or minus 3 points, was Biden was ahead somewhere in-between 4.2 points and 10.2 points. Since the final election result was within the margin of error, RCP polling average was deemed accurate. No poll is going to hit the final results on the button. If they do, that poll was extremely lucky, winning the lottery lucky.
The problem is most people have never heard of the margin of error and thus don’t factor it into the equation. All polls have a MOE. It depends on the sample size.
Looking at this using the MOE, the Republicans may be ahead by 3 or down by 3. Another thing to look for is who was polled. The poll with give you an A for all Adults, a RV for registered voters and an LV for likely voters. When it comes to elections, always give priority or more trust to the polls who poll LV or likely voters. Registered voters are more accurate than polls that poll all adults. Of the 8 polls RCP shows, 4 were of likely voters and 4 of registered voters. More registered voters will stay home and not vote than likely voters.
A word of advice, for elections pay much more attention to polls that poll likely voters. For opinions on the issues such as abortion for example, then all adults will be more accurate. Although all adults won’t go vote. But all adults lets you know how people feel about an issue although only about half will go vote.
Yep Rick, very poor general election candidates indeed. All thanks to Trump. PA, WI now look like they’re going Democratic. That’s a 2-seat pickup in the senate. NC could make it a three-seat gain for a 53-47 Democratic advantage. Although Budd in NC has a very slight advantage today. Although going by district by district and not the nationwide generic congressional ballot, the Republicans still look like solid favorites to retake the house with a gain of 18-20 seats. If you go back to my forecasts, I always had the Democrats retaining the senate. Keep an eye on Ohio, Tim Ryan is even with Vance in the polls in that very Republican leaning state. I don’t think that’ll last, but it keeps the race interesting.
Hollering about defunding the FBI isn’t about to gain any votes from independents either. You’re correct about that. Independents don’t like Trump to begin with, they also support the raid. Most would like to be rid of Trump. But a word of caution here, whereas Trump is an in your face obnoxious, rude, uncouth, a very distasteful and unlikeable individual, once he’s out of the picture, that leaves an opening for someone exactly like Trump, but with a more pleasant personality. A more tactful, political savvy figure, a more likeable individual who behaves and acts like an adult and presidential Someone without Trump’s baggage to emerge. Someone who has the ability to put the Democrats behind the political eight ball and attract independents which Trump can’t and won’t. Without Trump you’d have more viable Republican general election candidates in states like PA, OH, NC, GA, AZ with the GOP favored in those states instead of being the underdog.
But a word of caution here, whereas Trump is an in your face obnoxious, rude, uncouth, a very distasteful and unlikeable individual, once he’s out of the picture, that leaves an opening for someone exactly like Trump, but with a more pleasant personality. A more tactful, political savvy figure, a more likeable individual who behaves and acts like an adult and presidential
DeSantis is a dream candidate for the deplorable crowd. If he was a Democrat we'd have this thing locked up!
He's out stumping for those Republican candidates in tough races you mentioned. It won't help them much, but it increases his own chances of winning their votes down the line in the primaries. He leads his own opponents by 7-8 points so there's little question about his reelection.
Nixon used that route to gain the 1968 GOP nomination. After Goldwater’s debacle in 1964 in which the GOP lost 36 house seats giving the Democrats a 295-140 edge in the house and a 68-32 margin in the senate, Nixon hit the campaign trail hard in 1966 campaigning for Republicans across the country. A lot of Republicans owed Nixon for their seats. The GOP won 47 house seats in 1966 narrowing the democratic advantage to 248-187 and won 4 senate seats leaving the democrats in charge of the senate 64-36.
DeSantis usually is a smart political cookie. I think we all know that Trump is about to meet his Waterloo either through all these investigations and maybe indictments or a very poor showing for the Republicans this midterm which Trump is responsible. One way or another, the door seems wide open for DeSantis. All he must do is win reelection this fall. Election wise, Trump has become the Democrats biggest and best asset. Without Trump and his revenge tour you were probably looking at around 40 house seats and 5 senate seats lost. With Trump succeeding in his revenge tour throughout the GOP primaries along with his ever present baggage, the Democrats are poised to keep the senate and expand their majority, gain another 3-4 governors and limit the losses in the house to 18-20 seats going by todays numbers. Perhaps less. All thanks to Trump, the gift that keeps right on giving to the democrats.
Almost wants one to think Trump is a democrat plant within the GOP.
Trump voters want revenge for the FBI “raid” on Trump’s bed bug infested compound - and selecting DeSantis over Trump should Trump enter the race - even from jail, will not satisfy their blood lust for revenge.
Even if it is struck down in court it won him followers and votes. He's a Harvard Law grad, a constitutional scholar, so to speak...He knows it won't stand, it was purely a political maneuver to win votes away from Donald Trump.
Votes are what this game is all about and he's got folks tripping all over themselves to vote for him!
It was abhorrent, but it was a smart political move.
I agree Greger. It all boils down to winning elections. Florida independents are saying they’ll vote for DeSantis over Crist 51-39 and for DeSantis over Fried 51-35.
Florida has a PVI of R+3, Republicans slightly out number Democrats down there. Still, Florida is a very close state in terms of numbers for each major party. One can say the two major parties cancel each other out depending on turnout, independents determine who wins.
Florida independents are saying they’ll vote for DeSantis over Crist 51-39 and for DeSantis over Fried 51-35.
That's bad news but not unexpected. He's not a bad governor. I suspect he's actually a decent human being too. Some of the anti-woke sentiments resonate with a certain number of independents who might otherwise lean democrat. Male swimmers competing as females and then being nominated for "woman of the Year" comes to mind as an example.
When U.S. District Judge Mark Walker issued a preliminary injunction on DeSantis' “white discomfort law," he wrote:
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“Florida’s legislators may well find the plaintiff’s speech repugnant. But Under our constitutional scheme, the remedy for repugnant speech is more speech, not enforced silence. If Florida truly believes we live in a post-racial society, then let it make its case. But it cannot win the argument by muzzling its opponents.”
DeSantis is no more than a petty tyrant, and it is terrific to see Florida fighting back against his tyranny. DeSantis is peaking too soon as well, just as Scott Walker did in 2015.
DeSantis is peaking too soon as well, just as Scott Walker did in 2015.
It could happen. But his star could just continue to rise. He is the assumed candidate if Trump doesn't run. Pence seems to be shaping up as the most likely to oppose him and Trump, if he runs, in the Republican primaries.
The betting window hasn't opened on that one yet, but of the three, Trump is more likely to flame out than the others.
I would register Republican just to vote against him and many other independents would too. I'd vote for Pence.
DeSantis will win. That's my official prediction for the Reep nomination. I think it's gonna be a small primary because few dare to run against Trump. I see a dark horse, maybe two but not the twenty-some we've seen lately.
Democrats are keeping their cards hidden. Andrew Yang is making a stab at a third "moderate" party that seems destined not even to steal votes from the Dems. Everybody knows/hopes Biden won't run but they've got to steer the boat right now and let their handling of it be their best campaign asset.
Buttigieg is my fave, Jeff likes Fetterman, Pero likes Duckworth, and you mentioned Newsom.
So there are hopeful attractive candidates available who could all beat DeSantis.
In a survey published Sunday by NBC News, voters were asked: “What do you think is the most important issue facing the country?”
Their answer? Threats to Democracy. In all, 21 percent of the electorate believes that to be the single most important issue ahead of this fall’s vote. Cost of living came next at 16 percent. That was followed by jobs and the economy at 14 percent, immigration at 13 percent, and climate change at 9 percent.
I knew the American voter would come through! HIzzah!
Let's see...which party is defending American democracy - and which one isn't?
In a survey published Sunday by NBC News, voters were asked: “What do you think is the most important issue facing the country?”
Their answer? Threats to Democracy. In all, 21 percent of the electorate believes that to be the single most important issue ahead of this fall’s vote. Cost of living came next at 16 percent. That was followed by jobs and the economy at 14 percent, immigration at 13 percent, and climate change at 9 percent.
I knew the American voter would come through! HIzzah!
Let's see...which party is defending American democracy - and which one isn't?
Dang, you beat me to it. Also, Sleepy Joe Biden's approval ratings seem to be ticking back up.
That poll really warms the cockles of my heart. Seriously. I've posted over and over and over that decent Americans will vote for democracy over their wallets. You know how well THAT went over with some.
Yes inflation is bad, but Fascism is worse. I liken choosing democracy over Fascism to the time BAMZ! won the election in 2008
For the Democrats to retain control of the house they need to up their safe seats and cut down on their at risk, competitive, switchable seats which now stands at 179 Democratic safe seats with 42 currently held Democratic house seats in the at risk, switchable category vs.200 safe seats for the GOP with 14 seats in the at risk, switchable column.
Don’t confuse district by district vs. the nationwide generic congressional ballot numbers. The generic congressional ballot numbers are nationwide and have nothing to do with district by district. Until I see the number of safe democratic house seats rise and their number of at risk, switchable seats decline, I’m not going to get excited about the chances of the Democrats retaining control of the house. These are pure hard cold numbers I’m talking about.
Yes, yes, we've read all of that before...ad nauseum. And, has been stated ad nauseum, we're not in a normal election cycle.
...and has been pointed out, there are some voters that vote differently than what they state publicly. Hopefully, there are a lot more than "some" and enough to make a difference.
That poll really warms the cockles of my heart. Seriously. I've posted over and over and over that decent Americans will vote for democracy over their wallets. You know how well THAT went over with some.
Yes inflation is bad, but Fascism is worse. I liken choosing democracy over Fascism to the time BAMZ! won the election in 2008
Inflation goes away after a few months or a year. Fascism usually doesn't go away without a war. Absent that it may remain for a generation or two, and history doesn't show much hope for countries that emerge from seventy years of fascism, the damage it does may be permanent.
Also, Sleepy Joe Biden's approval ratings seem to be ticking back up.
Joe's numbers will creep up as the economy improves. And the economy always improves.
But it won't improve enough by November 8th to save the house.
After that though, it should continue to improve(by fits and starts) for the next two years which will put Dems in a good position to keep the Whitehouse and regain the House in 2024 against the fascist upstart from Floridaa.
All Democrats lack is a candidate to rally behind. Biden is a fine president who is at least trying to do the right thing for the American people, but he's not liable to be our next president. Nor is his VP.
I see exciting times ahead for Democrats amid all this talk of doom and gloom. Some new faces, and new adventures ahead.
Granted, not a normal election cycle. If we were in a normal election cycle with a president at around 40% approval, the Republicans would be gaining 40 plus seats in the house, 6 senate seats along with 5 or so Governors. Here’s what happened in a normal election cycle where a president was around 40% overall approval.
Biden 2022 40% ?????? projected loss of 18-20 house seats, gain of 2 senate seats, 3 governors as of 22 August Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats, 6 governors Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats, 4 governors G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats, 6 governors Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats, 1 governor
Needless to say, this cycle isn’t normal because of Trump. Trump is doing all he can to help the Democrats win this midterm. If I didn’t know better, I’d say Trump was a Democratic plant in the Republican Party. Without Trump, the above would be happening. Trump is the Democrats greatest asset election wise. Why are the Democrats trying to eliminate their greatest asset? From an election standpoint, it doesn’t make sense. Unless one takes in the revenge factor. Trump seeking revenge again lifelong, loyal Republicans who weren’t loyal enough to him. Thus, causing the Republicans to nominate a bunch of very poor, unqualified, bum candidates, easy to beat in the general election strictly for revenge. Not for winning elections. Then the Democrats out for revenge against Trump. But the Democrats have come up with quality, very good toward outstanding candidates for the general election. Their revenge consists of doing away with the Democrats greatest election asset and throwing him in jail. Election wise, this makes no sense. But I always view politics through the eyes of an election. Does this event, this person, this happening help or hurt my party’s chances in the upcoming election.
I leave the partisan revenge politics to those who love doing it. This is one of the main reasons I’m a swing voter, never having belonged to either major party. I detest partisan political party politics.
As for Florida, Rubio has an average 8 point lead over Demmings while DeSantis is 9 points ahead. The given odds are around 90% for each one to win. Of course all of this is dynamic and changes constantly. But as of today, both Rubio and DeSantis look safe. Either one goes by cold hard numbers, figures and facts or one goes by the heart.
Cold hard numbers as of today still show going district by district the GOP retaking control of the senate. AZ 2, FL 7, FL 13, MI 10 look like they are almost certain to flip from Democratic to Republican which would with no other changes give the GOP a 218-217 lead. 6 Democratic districts are leaning toward becoming Republican, AZ 6, IA 3, NJ 7, PA 7, TX 15 and WI 3. There are no Republican held district in the certain to change, flip column while the GOP has 3 Republicans districts that are leaning Democratic, IL 13, MI 3 and TX 34. There are as of today, 26 currently democratic held districts and 8 Republican held districts in the pure tossup column. Feel free to do the math.
McConnell said the samething in a few news articles about losing the senate due to poor quality candidates. I even posted one here. I imagine Trump or someone from the RNC got hold of old Mitch telling him to put on a more positive face. But reality is reality. It doesn't take a political rocket scientist to view the present numbers and come to the conclusion the GOP isn't about to regain the senate unless something happens between now and election day.
The house numbers, I doubt will change much basically because of the difference in retirements and house incumbents running for higher office. As of August 2022, 50 representatives, 31 Democrats and 19 Republicans have decided to retire, 18 of whom (ten Democrats and eight Republicans) are seeking another office. Which means the democrats must defend 31 open seats with no incumbents vs. 19 for the Republicans. Open seats are much easier to switch or flip.
While the Democrats have closed a 2.5-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in July to take a 0.2-point lead on 17 Aug, the GOP has now regained the lead. Although it’s is a very slight 0.2 points. What hasn’t changed is the number of safe and at risk, switchable seats even though the generic congressional ballot has fluctuated. They remain the same as in July, 42 Democratic competitive, at risk, switchable seats to the Republicans 14. Safe seats are 179 Democratic, 200 Republican. Leaving the probable net gain for the Republicans at 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.
It could have been much worse if the democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering wars. The drop in the price of a gallon of gas probably was the main reason for the Democrats being able to take the lead in the generic. But the generic is a nationwide figure, not district by district. It means little to nothing if in places like New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California etc. the democrats upped from winning percentages in districts from 60-40 to 65-35 in those heavily democratic states. The national numbers would reflect a trend toward the democrats, which district by district wouldn’t, they remain the same.
I think the senate is the most important chamber to retain. Biden then can still have all his nominations confirmed even though no legislation will get done. Add the governorships, all in all, it is a very good midterm if these numbers hold up for the Democrats. I’d classify that as a major Democratic victory.
Nah, they were batshite crazy even before Trump or he would never have been elected.
There's a good reason I vote for Democrats. And a good reason I don't want to be one of them. Actually several but I'd have to edit the last sentence so f*ck it.
Maybe it was Will Rogers who said "I'd never be a member of an organized political party, that's why I'm a Democrat."
Imagine we're talking about Dred Scott right now INSTEAD of Roe and people are on the news telling each other that black people and their friends in the other racial communities that America will normalize Dred seven months from now. Do you really think people would forget? That's what Republican "strategists" are saying right now, the American people will "forget all about the attack on Roe" by November and that Republicans will sail on to easy victory in the House and Senate.
These same “strategists” thought a failed, corrupt, immoral businessman as POTUS with an incompetent “ready, fire, aim” approach was a good idea as well. Look at how THAT turned out!
Not quite sure what you’re getting at Rick. All the political strategists, prognosticators, forecasters, whatever thought and had Hillary Clinton winning to include me. I’d say 4 reasons why Trump won.
1. Voter turnout, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 5 points in Nov 2016, but only by 3 points among those who turned out to vote. The Republicans had the higher voter turnout percentage. Lack of the Democratic base to turn out and vote in the same percentage as Republicans cost Clinton the election. Trump was able to inspire his base more than Hillary did to get out and vote. Trump was definitely the more energetic candidate and his voters more enthusiastic about voting for him than Hillary’s.
2. Independents, the non-affiliated, less to non-partisan group of voters who made up 25% of those who voted. They voted for Trump 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates. Independents disliked Hillary more than they disliked Trump enabling Trump to win the deciding states by narrow margins and thus the presidency. This indicated the importance of being able to attract the independent voter. Both major parties basically ignored independents in 2016 concentrating only on their base.
3. Trump won the anti-vote. Those who vote against a candidate, never for one which made up 26% of those who voted. Trump won the anti-voters 55-42 over Clinton. These are the people who vote for the candidate they least want to lose, not win, but least want to lose. These voters don’t want either major party candidate to win, they want both to lose. But in 2016, this group of voters wanted Hillary to lose more than they wanted Trump to lose.
4. Clinton laziness, she let Trump both outcampaign her and out work her. She had a very inept campaign strategy, she thought money alone was enough to win it for her. Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million. The first time since 1964 that the presidential candidate who raised and spent the most money lost the election. Amazing that Clinton had twice as much money and still lost.
This underscores the importance of money in all of our elections. Usually the candidate with or the party with the most money wins the elections. Not only presidential, but for congress as well as in state level elections like governors, senators, secretary of state, etc.
To drive their respective voters to the polls, Molinaro zeroed in on the economy, while Ryan looked to seize on anger surrounding the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Hizzah! Dem seizing on Roe V Wade versus Repub seizing on economy wins out over Repub.
I voted third party in 2016, my disdain for both Clinton and Trump was so high I had to officially register my disgust of the choices given us. I’d do it again today.
It’s a what if article, what if Cheney ran as an independent in 2024 and it was Trump vs. Biden. It’s an article that catches one attention only to have scan it and forgets about it.
New poll indicates a Liz Cheney presidential run would hurt Biden more than Trump
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – AZ D Kelly from +3 to +5, NH D Hassan from +4 to +5, WI D Barnes from -2 to +1
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50 Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 49 D 51 Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson vs D Barnes Democratic gain R 48 D 52
Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. Pennsylvania looks like the only seat to change hands, giving the Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the senate.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 221 Democrats, 214 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the House. There are 57 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 42 Democrats and 15 Republicans. Safe seats as of 24 Aug 2022, 179 Democratic, 199 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.
Florida Democrats have chosen Charlie Crist, the former Republican governor, to run as a Democrat against Republican governor DeSantis.
He's tried before against Scott and lost. He'll lose this time too. I'd rather have seen Nikki Fried make the attempt. At least she's a real Democrat and a rising star in the state party.
Maybe it's best to let Crist take the fall this time, it won't cost him any political capital to lose this race.
The latest poll I have on the Florida Governors race has DeSantis up by 8 points. Which is way outside of the MOE of the poll. More important is DeSantis is leading Crist among independents 51-39.
As I have been stating all year, this November 2022 election will be about democracy or Fascism. Guess ol' Joe has been lurking at Reader Rant:
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The early morning crew at Fox News lashed out at President Joe Biden Friday morning, just hours after he held a fiery rally in Maryland Thursday night and made the stakes for the November midterms clear: It’s democracy or fascism. -Alternet.org
Turns out that Congress has not always changed after the following midterm elections. In last hundred years, 1902, 1906, 1914, 1922, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1942, 1950, 1958, 1962, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1978, 1982, 1990 and 1998 there were no changes - that's 19 mid-terms.
Only six mid-terms changed Congress in the past 100 years. This "wisdom" the Congress flips has only been in the last 30 years. When the Washington press and pundits corps talk about history working against the Democrats, they mean history going back about 30 years. This period too will end at some point, just as similar periods ended.
From 1933 until 1994 the Democrats controlled congress in 58 out of 62 years which included 40 straight years 1955-1994. But that was when the Democrats were the big tent party with both their conservative and liberal wings. The solid conservative Democratic south. Back when the Democrats made up on average 45% of the electorate from FDR until Reagan with two years making up 51% in 1961 and 1964.
Since Reagan the Democratic share of the electorate has dropped from 45% average down to 29% today, which explains why flipping congress has become more normal than in the past. 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018 are the years they flipped, or wave elections happened. Independents has also risen from 20% during JFK up to 42% today while Republicans have stayed around 27% average going up and down a few points during this time.
I'm old enough to remember the old conservative yeller dog democrats of the south who would vote for an old yeller dog before they would ever vote for a Republican. When the Democratic Party stopped being the big tent party was when flipping congress became the fad.
From 1933 until 1994 the Democrats controlled congress in 58 out of 62 years which included 40 straight years 1955-1994. But that was when the Democrats were the big tent party with both their conservative and liberal wings. The solid conservative Democratic south. Back when the Democrats made up on average 45% of the electorate from FDR until Reagan with two years making up 51% in 1961 and 1964.
Since Reagan the Democratic share of the electorate has dropped from 45% average down to 29% today, which explains why flipping congress has become more normal than in the past. 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018 are the years they flipped, or wave elections happened. Independents has also risen from 20% during JFK up to 42% today while Republicans have stayed around 27% average going up and down a few points during this time.
I'm old enough to remember the old conservative yeller dog democrats of the south who would vote for an old yeller dog before they would ever vote for a Republican. When the Democratic Party stopped being the big tent party was when flipping congress became the fad.
"Nice" that you left out the Nixon Southern Strategy. A lot of those old "conservative yeller dog" Democrats of the South became today's Southern Republicans who are now the insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol.
Whether conservative Democrats or conservative Republicans - conservatism is the common thread to racism and bigotry throughout the history of the United States.
Most southern democrats remained loyal to the democratic party, at least in state and local elections. Take Georgia, we stayed under democratic control, governor and state legislature from the civil war until 2002 when we elected our first Republican governor and state legislature in our entire history. While the south as going republican after 1980, many states retained their Democratic governors and state legislatures along with senators and congressmen. It wasn’t until 1994 when the south finally had more Republican congressmen than Democratic. For the longest time Gingrich was the only Republican congressman in the state of Georgia and both our senators were democrats That is until 2002 when R Chambliss defeated D Cleland and in 2004 when R Isakson defeated D Zell Miller. .
No, the old guard remained loyal to the Democratic Party. Very few switched. The Switching they did was at the presidential level which they and the south tended to vote as America as a whole voted in 1980,all but 7 states went to Reagan 1984, all but one went to Reagan 1988 all but 11 went to Bush and even in 1992 the south was split between Republican and democratic candidates, Clinton carrying Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri. Clinton carried Tennessee, Kentucky Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri and Florida in 1996. Since 2000 the south has become fairly solid Republican in presidential elections.
It was the young that grew up Republican, not the old guard.
Exactly Rick, the Republicans have the same motto except theirs is “Vote Red no matter who.” As a swing voter it seems to me hard core partisans don’t care about the quality of the candidates or whether they’d be good at what ever elected office they are running for. They care only about the letter behind the name.
While both parties have basically expunged their moderates leaving only hard-core partisans as can be seen in the rise in independents from 30% in 2006 up to 42% today. Those of each party willing to cross over and vote for the other party’s candidate has shrunk into the single digits. As an example, 27% of Democrats voted for Reagan in 1980, 11% of Republicans voted for Carter, 26% of Democrats voted for Reagan in 1984. 17% of Democrats voted for Bush in 1988, In 1992 16% of Republicans voted for Clinton and 21% voted for Perot while 9% of Democrats voted for Bush with 17% voting for Perot. With both major parties shrinking, becoming more highly partisans come 2008 we’re down to single digits of a major party voting for the candidate of the other party. 9% of each major party voted for the candidate of the other party in 2008, two years after independents begin their rise to becoming the largest group in the electorate overtaking either major party’s base. 2012 it was down to 7% of democrats voting for Romney and 6% of republicans voting for Obama. 2016 7% of each party voted for the other party’s nominee and finally in 2020, we’re down to 6% of republicans voting for Biden vs. 5% of Democrats voting for Trump
Both major parties have become much more ideological and partisan which has led to today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. This began much earlier during Reagan when both major parties expunged their unwanted conservative and liberal wings. Followed by both major parties getting rid of their moderates beginning in the 2000’s. I think this expunging has pretty much been completed. Now independents are the sole decider of elections, not neither major party’s base.
You've been told that abortion isn't going to change the loss of the House.
That Remains true.
Republicans running on the supposed "bad economy" are somewhat stymied by the fact that everyone has a job and plenty of money.
The biggest problem is that they are emptying the shelves faster than they can be refilled. Which causes prices to go up. Supply and demand as defined in every textbook.
Abortion, on the other hand, is a hot-button item and some Democrat somewhere just defeated his opponent in a bellwether race which bodes well for other Democrats elsewhere.
Republicans are now addressing the issue so they are better prepared to defend against it next time.
Pretty simple strategy.
We'd have to ask Pero, but I think about 4% of independent voters feel very strongly about abortion. That's a huge number. Seriously, seriously huge.
What spells success in today's political world is the ability to get independent voters off their couches to participate in the election rather than sitting home and watching the results on their phones.
Don't ever stop being hopeful, Rick. Some unforeseen event or series of events may occur before November to sway the election our way (plenty already have, including abortion).
I stand before you, not as an opponent, but as the cold hard truth. Political reality. The very best you can hope for is a loss of 15 seats. And that will be a historic victory.
**edit** I swear to god I typed those same words months ago and nothing has really changed.
You've been told that abortion isn't going to change the loss of the House.
That Remains true.
Au contraire. NY17 special election last week showed that wasn't true. AZ Senate candidate Blake Masters scrubbed from his campaign website his stance on abortions. The article linked above is showing the Republicans are changing their views on abortion.
Why are Republicans running from abolition if it's not a factor in the mid-terms?
Why are Republicans running from abolition if it's not a factor in the mid-terms?
I think I just explained that pretty clearly, Dems caught 'em off guard, now they need to adjust. You never played sports did you?
I think our stance all along has been that financial security trumps abortion security and the abortion factor was already baked into the equation...
Everybody needs food and housing, but not many need abortions. That's the gist of it.
This election is not "about" abortion. But it's something that Dems can rub the Reep's noses in and win a few elections here and there. That's what political footballs are for and why they never get codified because that kicks them out of play.
States with draconian abortion laws will all soon be facing multiple lawsuits where harm is apparent. These will be climbing the judicial ladder to the Supreme Court in due time and we'll see a certain amount of this nonsense dealt with.
I was never convinced that Abortion would be something that would cause the Dems to win. Then the Republicans went a bit crazy over Abortion and now I am not so sure. When one considers Abortion, as well as the extremes the Republicans are embracing, I suspect that if the Dems actually fight they can win. The Dems, in the past, hasn't done a real good job at going after the Republicans. Hopefully, this time around, given the amount of ammunition the Republicans have offered that the Dems will actually make a real run at them.
I know, its not likely, but if somebody actually drags Trump into court before November I can only wonder .............
Greger, 5% of independents now state abortion is their most important issue. That’s up from 4% a month ago. 21% of independents list inflation/prices as their most important issue along with 12% who say jobs and the economy is their most important issue. I’d think those two should be united into one, but apparently the pollsters don’t think so. Question 72.
Although I think abortion was baked in, I do think that issue has motivated democrats to get out and vote in higher numbers than usual. The Democrats have evened up the enthusiasm gap. Question 64 as 39% of Democrats now say they’re more enthusiastic vs. 40% for the Republicans.
I think keeping Trump front and center on TV with all his baggage is a greater help to the Democrats than abortion. Independents don’t like Trump much and have been very hesitant to vote for his chosen candidates or in general, a party’s candidates led by Trump. When Trump wasn’t making headlines, being on camera all the time, the GOP looked likely to retake both the house and senate. Today, just the house. I’d give odds at 80% that the Democrats keep control of the senate and the same 80% that the Democrats lose control of the house. My 18-20 seat house loss still goes. Mainly because so many house democrats retired or decide to run for high office leaving 31 open seats. Open seats are much easier to switch or flip than beating an incumbent.
JGW, the democrats have narrowed independents who state they plan on voting for republican congressional candidates down to 42-39 from a month ago when the Republicans had a 10 point lead over Democratic congressional candidates. I don’t think its abortion that has caused the shrinkage, although it has played a role. It’s more likely it is having Trump on TV, all the news about Trump that is the major reason. Independents don’t like Trump, only 33% of independents view Trump favorably vs. 57% unfavorably.
While most independents think abortion should be legal, it more of a, "I'd rather abortion be legal but it's not important enough to change who I had planned on voting for." In other words, abortion is way down on the list of issues that independents use to decide who they'll vote for.
the special election in New York showed an extra high democratic turnout vs. a more normal turnout among Republicans. I;m not sure what to read into that. Maybe a wake up call for the Republicans who many of have taken the midterms for granted. We'll see.
...the special election in New York showed an extra high democratic turnout vs. a more normal turnout among Republicans. I;m not sure what to read into that....
That Republican Fascism of taking a woman's right away to control her own body is causing decent folks to vote against Republicans. Just a thought.
Abortion isn’t about to replace inflation, rising prices as the most important issue in deciding who one votes for or the Trump effect on independents. Most independents don’t give an owl’s hoot about abortion unless that affects them personally. It’s their wallets and purses that are feeling mighty thin that is the important issue. On this front the Democrats have gotten good news with falling gas prices, but not in rising food and housing prices. Also, Trump which is disliked by most independents continues to be hot news, not abortion. Throw in the fact Trump got nominated a few very poor-quality candidates along with being out of the mainstream candidates, extreme comes to mind for the senate, this will enable in my opinion for the Democrats retaining control in the senate. But not the house.
If you were following the Generic congressional ballot, all this news on Trump over the last month, not abortion allowed the democrats to shrink a 2.5-point GOP lead to actually taking the lead of 0.2 points for 3 days in August, 16, 17, 18 August. But have since fallen behind by 0.8 points as of this AM.
One other thing, as of this AM you have 91% of Republicans stating they’ll vote for their candidates, only 3% for the Democratic candidates. It’s almost identical among Democrats with 91% stating they’ll vote Democratic, 2% Republicans. The rest undecided, not sure. The historical average is 94% of those who identify themselves with either major party. I’m sure once the undecided’s decide, 94% of each party’s loyalist will vote for their party’s candidates.
It's independents that are flocking to candidates like Fetterman in PA, Barnes in OH, Kelly in AZ, Warnock in GA etc. Not either party’s base vote. In each case Trump chose and the Republicans went along with him to nominate very poor general election candidates.
...the special election in New York showed an extra high democratic turnout vs. a more normal turnout among Republicans. I;m not sure what to read into that....
That Republican Fascism of taking a woman's right away to control her own body is causing decent folks to vote against Republicans. Just a thought.
Democratic baby-killing socialists are taking away the right of LIFE for unborn babies and causing decent Americans to vote Republican...
It's all about winning and losing, folks. As I've said before it all starts with a competitive sports fixation. Eric Cartman loving the taste of his rival's tears.
If abortions' is not such a voter issue, why not stick to the Republican platform of no exceptions ever as many had on their websites, but have now changed.
LOL, don’t you ever get tired talking about abortion. I get tired of hearing about it. As to why the GOP is changing their messaging on abortion is simple. They can’t bring themselves to blame Trump and all the very poor-quality candidates Trump has produced. The Republicans can’t admit, won’t admit that Trump is causing them to lose independent voter support.
You had the leaked draft on the 8 the June. Then the SCOTUS overturning Roe on the 24th of June. Look at RCP’s generic congressional ballot for a month after the overturning. The Republicans had a 2.6-point lead on 25 June the day after the overturning. All polls prior to that date are irrelevant if you think abortion is the cause. On 25 July the GOP still had that same 2.6-point lead in the generic congressional poll.
You would think if abortion is such a hot issue or isn’t baked in, there would have been movement away from the Republicans when new polling data became available a week after the overturning, certainly two weeks after, for sure 3 weeks after or a month after the overturning. But nary any movement except for the normal ups and downs. For a month after the SCOTUS overturned ROE, it’s like no one cared except those who are planning on voting democratic. Cold hard numbers show that.
Since the 26th of July, Trump has been the hot topic, all over the news, abortion has taken a back seat to Trump. As I stated, independents don’t like him much. Most independents don’t care about abortion, democrats do. 2 weeks after the overturning the percentage of democrats who state abortion is their issue deciding their vote rose from 9% up to 16% and has since dropped back to 9%. Independents started off at 4%, abortion has risen one point, up to 5% today. The percentage of independents who had an unfavorable view of Trump was at 51% on 25 June and again another 51% on 25 July but has risen to 57% today. Those are cold hard numbers.
The percentage of independents who stated they’d vote Republican in the generic congressional ballot on 25 June was 44-34 and on 25 July 45-35 over the Democratic congressional candidates. No change in the month following the overturning of Roe. But today, independents now state they’ll vote Republican 42-39. The abortion issue remained constant from 24 June through today, but the dislike of Trump who’s been on the news all the time has risen from 51% to 57%.
No, the GOP will never admit Trump is their problem. They’ll blame it on abortion or something else. Trump is the GOP’s god king, so it can’t be Trump that is causing the Democratic surge. It must be something else. It’s simple if one follows the numbers and leaves their heart out of it or leaves pre-conceived ideas out of the equation. It’s Trump, at least when it comes to independents, swing voters, the non-affiliated.
I’m one of those millions who think abortion should be legal, that the woman should decide. But abortion doesn’t make my list of issues that decides my vote. I think you’ll find this true for most swing voters. The price of bread and milk, hot dogs and hamburger, affects us much more than abortion. Everyone, rich, poor, male, female has to buy and pay for food.
If I think a candidate will do an excellent job at whatever office that candidate is running for, that candidate will get my vote. Whether than candidate is pro-choice or pro-life doesn’t enter into it. I go with the candidate I deem best suited for the job. Not the second or lower quality candidate who may get the job only because of that candidates position on abortion. Perhaps the difference is you’re a hardcore partisan, I’m not.
You can go right on thinking abortion will elect a ton of Democrats, but I prefer to go by the numbers. If abortion was going to be the deciding factor, I’m sure you would have seen changes in the generic congressional ballot between 25 June when Roe was overturned and 25 July which showed no change. That fact should tell you something. Not all people think alike. Everyone has different priorities and different reasons for voting the way they do.
Fact is government has a long history of telling women what they can and can’t do with their bodies. I do believe what a woman does with her body is up to her, be that having an abortion or being a prostitute. It’s her body and as far as I’m concerned, her choice.
I have a friend who said that it would have preferred if the gov just got rid of the interest and applied all paid interest onto the debt. I remember when Obama did this one and was not exactly happy with it then and the interest thing was just offensive.
I had a heart specialist who saved up 100,000.00 to pay on her debt, It only covered her interest. Her husband is a canadian and when he finished his schooling he worked for the Canadian government for something like 5 years (not sure) but it paid off his entire debt. They both moved to Canada - screw the 'loan'.
I think that its really about the extreme stuff the Republicans are doing, especially in the Red states. Its just plain offensive. As I watch them try and blow past most of it, if they are running, its becoming clear that their extremes are beginning to offend a lot of people and they know it. Some of the stuff they are doing just makes no sense and a lot of it seems to be coming from religious extremists.
I think the terms are "White Christians" and "Christian nationalists". I think the first might be racist the the second are saving the united states. Praise the Lord?
In Alaska, no less! And Palin is certainly a MAGA favorite. But she just lost the special election for Alaska's partial term House seat to a Democrat. I suspect things are NOT going to go well for Republicans in November. I think voter registration is 140,000 Republicans to 77,000 Democrats, 23,000 other parties.
Ranked choice voting had a lot to do with it. Palin always reminded me of a dizzy blond without the blond hair or Lucile Ball of I love Lucy without the red hair. What happened, 2 Republicans 1 Democrat, Begich the other Republican finished third with a majority of his voters making D Peltola their 2nd choice over Palin or instead of Palin. Palin and Begich went negative in their personal attacks leaving Peltola alone. What all that negativity caused Begich voters to list Peltola as their 2nd choice over Palin. One of these because of what you wish for or how you campaign,
Round 1 Begich, Nick 53,756 28.52% Palin, Sarah 58,945 31.28% Peltola, Mary S. 75,761 40.20%
Round 2
Palin, Sarah 85,987 48.53% Peltola, Mary S. 91,206 51.47%
Ranked choice or not, the Democrat still won both rounds! That never could have happened unless a lot of Republicans voted for the Democrat, or maybe Republicans stayed home en masse, and Democrats plus the other party registrants went and voted almost all for the Democrat. That would have taken like 91% turnout for the Democrats and other party voters who all voted for the Democrat, and only 61% turnout for the Republicans who voted for Sarah.
Given the voter Party affiliation in Alaska, that was a rout.
Ranked choice or not, the Democrat still won both rounds! That never could have happened unless a lot of Republicans voted for the Democrat, or maybe Republicans stayed home en masse....
The bottom line is, who's nailin' Palin is not going to Congress. Thank the Goddesses! I'm sure Todd and his new gal were eating ice cream in bed, when that news came on and they both had a good laugh. In fact, Todd's family held a fundraiser for the R-guy who campaigned against Sarah.
When a candidate resorts to negative personal attacks with nothing else, that candidate ought to lose which is what happened. In my mind both Begich and Palin should have lost since they went so negative which is exactly what happened which makes me one satisfied happy camper. Party means little to nothing to me.
Your seeing a slow transfer of anti-Trump or anti-mega Republicans now voting or moving toward the Democratic Party nationwide. Recently you had 6 high profile Pennsylvania state republicans endorse Shapiro and Fetterman although it goes against every grain in their body to do so.
Without Trump and his MAGA Republicans, the GOP would have rolled the democrats this year in the midterms. Trump is being very successful in getting Democrats reelected, he deserves a million thankyou notes from every democrat.
Really, I just left Cook which had the 1 Sep update. I only count lean and tossups, unless a party has a race in the other party’s likely column. On 25 Aug Cook had 47 Democrats, 16 Republicans in those categories. On 1 Sep he has 46 Democrats, 16 Republicans. By adding together 6 other sites and then averaging I come up with my competitive, switchable, at risk seats. Which currently stands at 43 Democrats vs. 16 Republicans.
More important is Cook has 4 currently held democratic seats in the likely Republican column and 6 currently held democratic seats in the lean Republican column. Cook has 3 currently held Republican seats in the lean democratic column and none in the likely Democratic column.
Cook also lists 162 safe democratic seats vs. 188 safe Republican seats with each party having 26 seats in the tossup column. I disagree with the safe seats, I list 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. The difference is supposed is I count likely seats as safe seats since they’re not competitive yet. Although Cook lists them as likely as they stand a chance of becoming competitive. I don’t.
Rick, did you look below that bar. The portion that list the districts via likely, lean and tossup? Even going by your bar or should I say, Cook’s.
You have 162 solid Democratic, 188 solid Republican Add the likely 13 more bringing the Democrats to 175 and the likely GOP of 14 bring them to 202 Then the leans,15 for the democrats, up theirs to 190, then add 11 to the Republicans, lean you’re at 213 GOP
Cook has 32 pure tossups which consist of 24 currently held Democratic seats vs. 8 currently held Republican seats. If these two parties win all their solid, likely and lean seats, the Republicans need just 5 of the 32 pure tossup seats to regain control while the democrats need to win 27.
Simple math. Myself, I like taking not only Cook, but 6 other sites like Sabato, Inside Edition, 538, Fox, split ticket, Election Daily, add up all the different columns, categories and then divide and average them all out. I don’t rely on just one forecaster or prognosticator.
Sarah Palin's loss to a Democrat in Alaska's special election was encouraging!
That only lasts until November but I expect the same results then. A native American! Good job Alaska!
I dunno much about Alaska or why the f*ck anybody lives there but seeing Palin humiliated sort of tugs at my heartstrings and gives me a warm fuzzy feeling.
Rick, just keep in mind all of this is dynamic, changes occur. The numbers are also as of today, if the election were held today, this is the likely outcome. Some changes occur fast in a short time; others take a very long time. Back in June it looked like it would be the Republicans gaining a seat or two in the senate. Today the odd is the Democrats will be the gaining party, of 1-2 seats, most likely 2.
In the house, the gain of 18-20 seats by the Republicans going district by district has been steady since redistricting was completed. This doesn’t mean there won’t be changes or they may occur fairly rapidly or perhaps no change at all.
Governors have always looked like a 3-4 seat pickup for the Democrats since January. No change there. The key is where, which states when it comes to governorships and the senate. Remember in the senate it’s the Republicans who are defending 21 seats to the Democrats 14. The same for governors, 28 governors are Republican, 22 Democrat. The house is different, the Democrats are defending more seats, 222-213.
Pero, I'd seriously like to whittle your 18-20 seats down to 15 or less.
If abortion is pulling some voters off the couch I'm certainly not going to fight it. And neither should Democratic candidates.
Rub their noses in it. Rub their noses in Trump's BS too!
Republicans are divided on both issues. Democratic strategists seem to be hitting on all cylinders.
It's almost like the clouds are parting and giving us a glimpse of the sun...
Rick has every right as a partisan Democrat to hope that the Blue Team scores a grand slam on November 8th. That good will triumph over evil, that the moral turpitude of the Republican party will be revealed and that Americans can march into a Brave New World....
Until DeSantis wins in 2024 and it all turns into another Trail Of Tears...
Like Trump with brass knuckles instead of tiny baby fists.
But that's the next "most important election of our lives" It's gonna be interesting if he wins in 24 and not in a good way.
I always use or usually use the caveat, “If the election were held today or by today’s numbers.” I have today’s numbers, but not the numbers for November since I’m not a fortune teller or a seer and my last name isn’t Nostradamus
The trend has been slowly shifting since July toward the democrats. One of the problems is the Democrats have 31 house incumbents retiring or running for higher office. Which simply means those seats are open, no incumbent. Open seats are always easier to switch, flip. 3 of the 4 currently held democratic seats in the likely Republican column are open seats. 3 of the 5 currently held democratic seats in the lean Republican column are also open seats, no incumbent. 7 of the 24 pure tossup seats are also open in the Democratic tossup column. Retirements and house incumbent democrats deciding to run for higher office has left the Democrats much more vulnerable than normal.
If you go back to 2018, 20 of the 44 house seats the Democrats flipped were open seats where the Democrats didn’t have to face an incumbent. All this factors into the equations. The GOP gained 13 house seats in 2020, 8 of them open seats.
If I made a guess for November, 15 sounds about right with the trend in the democrats favor. Independents today are stating they’ll vote Republican 42-39, down from 45-35 on the 1st of August. But where, in what district are those independent voters located in? If they’re in safe Democratic or safe Republicans districts, they make no difference. Only in swing or at risk district could they become a deciding factor. It makes no difference if the Democrats wins his district 60-40 or 65-35 or even 70-30 with the addition of those independents who switch their planned voted. It also makes no difference if the Republican wins its district 65-35 or 55-45. The big question is where are the votes changing? Apparently if the competitive, at risk districts remain basically the same, those switching to the Democrats aren’t living in those competitive districts. That’s another thing to take into consideration.
Rick has every right as a partisan Democrat to hope that the Blue Team scores a grand slam on November 8th. That good will triumph over evil, that the moral turpitude of the Republican party will be revealed and that Americans can march into a Brave New World....
Certainly, he does. I would expect nothing less. But hardcore partisans make very poor political strategist or forecasters, prognosticators or even political realist. Rick in the end may be right, but not today. We have 68 days to go before the election, quite a lot can happen between now and then. Trump can continue to shoot the Republican Party and its candidates in the foot, making them limp into the general election. A very good possibility.
Then again something could happen to energize the GOP to where once again they might regain both chambers. I doubt it, but possible. If I were a democratic political realist, I’d be very happy with gaining 3-4 governors, 2-3 in the senate giving the Democrats more control while losing the house by a few seats. That would be in my opinion an outstanding victory for the Democrats.
My Braves struggled to a 52-53 record at the end of July before they caught fire and went on to win the World series last year. Who would have thought that possible at the end of July. No one. The realist in me told me the Braves were going nowhere, but hope springs eternal. With 88 wins, my braves had the worst record of any playoff team. Yet they won it all. Are the democrats last years Atlanta Braves only in the political arena instead of the baseball field? Possible, but the odds are stacked against them, but then again, so too were the odds on my braves last year. The odds are against my braves again this year, maybe we’ll both be happy once all is said and done. I doubt it, but there’s always hope.
The difference here is as a swing voter, a non-partisan, my goal, number one priority is to get my forecasts right regardless of who wins and losses. Winners and losers are irrelevant to me as long as my forecast is correct. Most partisans are very poor forecasters or prognosticators as their side will always win 100% of the time. Why not, they own the horses in this race, candidates in the election. As owners, their stakes are high, as a casual observer, fan, handicapper if you will, my stake in this race, game, election is close to nil. I own nothing, have no horse in this race. Just getting the forecast right is what is important to me.
Regardless, I’m left wondering if Trump hasn’t become the most important issue, factor in this election overtaking inflation, the economy, rising prices. A couple of months ago, I would have said this was impossible. But what has happened over the last month or two, the trend going the democrats way, it’s very possible.
Correcting the record regarding inflation. Inflation actually began under Trump. See details here.
When it comes to elections, it's who gets the blame for inflation that counts. Very few of the electorate are financial gurus or pay attention to when it started. When inflation goes away, Biden will get the credit for it whether or not he had anything to do with it.
The economy is like the weather, it does what it wants to do. No president nor government controls it. If they did, we’d have all ups, all good times, no bad times and no downs. The person in charge always gets the blame or the credit, that comes with the job. The good news for the Democrats is gas prices are falling although food and housing continues to rise. Along with Trump helping the Democrats this election cycle, the falling gas prices is a benefit the Democrats.
If Trump had faded away after the November 2020 election like all other past presidents have, a red wave election would have been a certainty. I think Trump wishes he had, but his ego wouldn’t let him. He’s one egotistical SOB. So too do some Republicans who can see the damage Trump has done to the GOP. You guys sure you don’t want to keep Trump around with all the help he’s given the democrats this for this year’s election for 2024 election cycle? If I were a democratic election strategist, I sure would.
Correcting the record regarding inflation. Inflation actually began under Trump. See details here.
Of course it did. Trump did everything in his power to overheat the economy and guarantee future failure in favor of short-term gains. American voters recognized his poor management skills and poor judgment and soundly defeated him when his term was up.
That doesn't make the Biden administration blameless for anything and this administration will be judged on its own merits, not the demerits of the former administration.
Correcting the record regarding inflation. Inflation actually began under Trump. See details here.
Of course it did. Trump did everything in his power to overheat the economy and guarantee future failure in favor of short-term gains. American voters recognized his poor management skills and poor judgment and soundly defeated him when his term was up.
That doesn't make the Biden administration blameless for anything and this administration will be judged on its own merits, not the demerits of the former administration.
100% agree.
It's interesting times we live in with respect to history. I wonder what generations from now will think of this period in American history. I hope that the recent special elections are indicative of current American voters seeing through the smoke, lies, and mirrors of those wanting to take America into the directions of strongmen directors and fascism, or continue on its path of democracy which began 246 years ago.
I’ve said many times that the 2020 election was a personality election especially where independents were concerned. Obnoxious, rude, uncouth vs. the only adult in the room. It was all about getting rid of Trump for most independents, not issues. 2022 midterms from what I’m seeing is becoming more and more about Trump than issues like abortion, inflation, etc. At least over the last month. The last two election that were basically about Trump, 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential, the Democrats won. I didn’t watch Biden’s speech against MAGA Republicans, my Braves were on, priorities. But it seems to me that the Democrats including Biden are forgetting issues in favor of campaigning against Trump. That just might work. Abortion can fire up some Democrats to get out and vote but does little for independents. Now independents dislike Trump, having or making this midterm election all about Trump and Trumpers, now that can attract the independent voter much more than the issue of abortion.5 times as many independents say inflation, rising prices over abortion is their top issue in deciding who to vote for this midterm. But make Trump the issue, their dislike of him may override inflation, rising prices as to who they decide to vote for. That seems to be the case over the last month. It certainly is an interesting strategy. But hey, it worked in 2018 and in 2020, why not try it again in 2022. Time will tell.
5% of independent voters rank abortion as a top concern. That's 5% of independent voters who are more likely to get off the couch and vote for Democrats.
Independent voters are trending away from Reeps lately. and I'm going to assume that Trumpism, in general, has been rejected by independents, not just Trump himself.
The economy has improved(by some metrics) and Biden's numbers are rising.
I expect a few weird-ass surprises in every election.
15 seats seems doable. 16 more likely. A gain of 3 in the senate is doable too. 2 is most likely.
Rick Scott pissed away all the Senate re-election funds, so Reeps are running at a deficit there.
I wondered about that senate reelection funds. How much of that money went to Trump and his lawyers? This was the first thing I thought of when I learned of the GOP pulling funds out of PA, AZ, OH. Maybe another state or two. We know the RNC has been paying Trump’s legal bills. Money that could have been used by the GOP for the 2022 midterm campaign. I have nothing to go on with this, just a feeling.
Over the last month I’ve seen the democrats narrow the Republican advantage among independents from 10 point to 3 points in the generic congressional ballot. But I haven’t seen any changes going district by district. District by district has been static while the generic congressional ballot has been moving. Remember the generic is nationwide, a total of all the congressional vote. I think perhaps this movement in the generic by independents is independents lean democratic which abortion means more to them than pure, true independents with no leans or independents that lean republican. It also where this movement is taking place. In the northeast or west coast, it probably isn’t going to make any difference as a huge majority of those districts are safe Democratic anyway. It’s the swing, competitive, at risk districts that so far aren’t showing any change. Safe seats also have remained the same while the generic is moving toward the Democrats. Give it time, perhaps district by district hasn’t caught up yet with the generic. So much depends on how the districts were drawn and where the districts are. Time will tell.
List of Democratic house tossup districts District Representative PVI AK-00 Mary Peltola R+8 CA-13 Open D+4 IL-17 Open D+2 IN-01 Frank J. Mrvan D+3 KS-03 Sharice Davids R+1 ME-02 Jared Golden R+6 MI-07 Elissa Slotkin R+2 MI-08 Dan Kildee R+1 MN-02 Angie Craig D+1 NH-01 Chris Pappas EVEN NH-02 Annie Kuster D+2 NV-01 Dina Titus D+3 NV-03 Susie Lee D+1 NV-04 Steven Horsford D+3 NY-19 Open EVEN OH-09 Marcy Kaptur R+3 OH-13 Open R+1 OR-05 Open D+2 PA-08 Matt Cartwright R+4 PA-17 Open EVEN RI-02 Open D+4 TX-28 Henry Cuellar D+3 VA-02 Elaine Luria R+2 WA-08 Kim Schrier D+1
List of Republican tossup districts. CA-22 David Valadao D+5 CA-27 Mike Garcia D+4 CO-08 New Seat EVEN NC-13 Open R+2 NE-02 Don Bacon EVEN NM-02 Yvette Herrell D+1 NY-22 Open D+1 OH-01 Steve Chabot D+2
I’m not going to list the lean by districts, but in districts that lean democratic you have 12 currently held by Democrats and 3 held by Republicans. In districts that lean republican you have 6 currently held democratic seats and 5 currently held republican seats. In seats that look like they are definitely going to change, switch or flip to the other party, there are 4 currently held democratic seats going Republican with no Republican seats definitly going Democratic.
Not one, but two early elections swung Democrat. Both were bellwether races pointing to the overall mood of the nation.
In the various district by district matchups, some can be determined by a relative handful of votes. Ron DeSantis won his seat by 32,000 votes....not exactly a mandate to rewrite the American Constitution...so a ragtag band of lesbian abortionists and their girlfriends could flip a handful of random house seats...ya never know...! If we knew who the winners and losers were gonna be we wouldn't have to vote!
Local politics has a lot of sway with House seats too. Your local Representative is your direct link to DC. He shows up to chamber breakfasts, and county fairs, and is well known to many of his constituents. Local stars rise and local stars set. Things we know nothing about may affect any of those races.
Just like the poll numbers can change, so too the mood of the nation.
I'm just sayin' if the stars all align and if nuthin' don't happen...best they could hope for is 15 seats so I'm gonna hedge and say 16 for now.
I don't really see any way it could improve beyond that.
The only way I can see at this point in time the Democrats keeping control of the house is if Trump announces his run for the presidency prior to the midterm. That would benefit the Democrats from an independent voter’s point of view. But even with that, I doubt it would be enough to retain the house in Democratic hands. The numbers just aren’t with the Dems in the house, not like they are in the senate and governors. Also remember the Democrats are at a disadvantage of having about twice as many retirements and house dems running for higher office than the GOP.
There were approximately 10,000 voters who didn’t make a second choice. Interesting in that in round 1 112,701 voted Republican, but only 85, 987 did so in round 2. Which simply means that many Begich voters just didn’t want Palin neither. Alaska’s two Republicans senators called and congratulated Peltola on her win. It seems neither of them wanted Palin either.
Round 1 Begich, Nick 53,756 28.52% Palin, Sarah 58,945 31.28% Peltola, Mary S. 75,761 40.20%
Round 2
Palin, Sarah 85,987 48.53% Peltola, Mary S. 91,206 51.47%
The only way I can see at this point in time the Democrats keeping control of the house is if Trump announces his run for the presidency prior to the midterm.
Didn't he just announce his intention to run at the Pennsylvania rally where he promised pardons and apologies for the J6 rioters and accused John Fetterman of using hard drugs?
Donald Trump intends to run for the presidency. He is dead set on revenge against all Americans who have wronged him regardless of party affiliation. He is dead set on proving he is not a loser. And he is dead set on being president for the rest of his life.
Democrats can take that to the bank.
I didn't think he'd run, and he may not. But he plans to unless something stops him and he announced those plans in Pennsylvania.
Trump was vague last night in Pennsylvania ( "I may have to run a third time" ). Trump's "pardons" are to get his militarized base excited about the prospect of another Trump term - and do his bidding without Trump actually doing the directing. Trump is very passive-aggressive that way and he can then claim innocence ( "I didn't tell them to do that" ). It's what sociopaths do.
Trump is always vague. Culpable deniability is a game he plays well, He's already campaigning and will use these midterm rallies as a springboard to his own candidacy moving forward.
All of this outrage has done nothing but provide him with endless press coverage, make him more of a hero, a martyr, a fixture on every front page and every teevee screen(and every cell phone)
Probably the most talked about celebrity in America today.
I think we should also remember how Trump came to be. Trump had a TV show for a couple of years. It made him look like the greatest business man ever seen in modern times and WE got to watch him in action! Then he lost his show but many loved to hear about him, what he was doing, saying etc. Trump, as one Tv exec said; "Was a regular moneymaker for us (TV)". As a result he was given, for free, massive exposure on TV. I think I read that he was given over 5 BILLION dollars in free exposure. This continues into this day! Trump, basically, is a creature created by TV to make money! I'm not saying there is anything wrong in an America run by greed but, somehow, there's something wrong with this!
Trump knows all of this. Its what he does! He has serious mental problems and TV just keeps him in the limlight which tends, I suspect, to encourage him to behave as he does (lies, cheats, and steals with abandon and everybody just loves him). Actually not everybody, only between 25% and 30% of the population. But they all vote as told and can be counted on. The same can't be said for either party. It also makes those that follow Trump the power behind the throne. These are people who have been consistently lied to and taken advantage of. They happily send millions of dollars to Trump to support lies! My own thought is that one would think somebody might figure out why this is and how to do something about it. I have no answers but we have an entire government which seems to be having a real problem taking care of itself and that also makes people a bit nervous.
Here’s something wild to think about, perhaps. Maybe an younger Trump always had intentions or wants to run for the presidency. Trump has switched parties 7 times and each time he switched; he became a member of the party which didn’t hold the presidency. A member of the minority party. During Reagan, Trump was a Democrat, during Bill Clinton Trump became a Republican. Then in 2000, Trump joined my tiny Reform Party and ran for its presidential nomination. Following G.W. Bush’s election to the presidency, Trump went back to being a Democrat. Along come Obama, Trump once again becomes a Republican and then runs for the presidency as a Republican in 2016.
There’s no business advantage to always being a member of whichever party is in the minority nor does one increase influence, legislative wise by being a member of the minority party. Maybe Trump was just waiting for the opportunity to run for the presidency which he figured the party which didn’t hold the presidency gave him his best opportunity.
This is a very wild, out there theory. But why would someone always want to be a member of the minority party which doesn’t hold the presidency without some ulterior motive?
This is a very wild, out there theory. But why would someone always want to be a member of the minority party which doesn’t hold the presidency without some ulterior motive?
Trump is a failure in life and has always picked the wrong horse. He just got lucky in 2016 with Russian assistance. Even the 2020 GOP Senate Intelligence Reportstates Russia helped Trump in 2016.
Trump's role on The Apprentice was as made-up Hollywood as any TV show. We have Mark Burnett, Rwing Evangelical Hollywood producer to think for Trump's 14 years of made-for-TV "successful businessman" to thank - and not in a good way. it was actually Mark who got Evangelicals on the Trump Train in 2015-16.
As I’ve been saying, only Democrats and avid anti-Trumpers were interested in the 1-6 hearings. But the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago has riveted attention from all political stripes. Since then the midterms have been trending the democrat’s way. Trump has been front and centered, all cameras focused. The 1-6 hearings, the overturning of Roe by the SCOTUS, mass shootings, didn’t move the needle in how folks planned on voting this midterm. But the raid and Trump’s continued presents on the news 24/7 certainly is moving that needle. I think all we need to do is look at independents as democrats and republicans haven’t changed how they’ll vote or their views. Here the latest poll on indicting Trump.
Half of Americans in Poll Favor Trump Prosecution Over Documents
From the article: As details are released about the FBI’s recovery of material from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, the poll found 50% of those surveyed say Trump should face criminal charges, while 41% do not.
Among Republicans, fewer than 10% say Trump should be charged. But 85% of Democrats and 52% of independent voters say he should, according to the survey of 1,584 US adults conducted between Aug. 25 and Aug. 29. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus-2.5 percentage points.
Independents were always the key to the upcoming midterms. But since the raid, independents had planned or stated they’d be voting for the Republican congressional candidates 45-35 over the Democrats. After the raid, Trump being on the news constantly, today, independents now favor Republican congressional candidates 42-39 over Democrats. That’s a big switch which accounts for the GOP lead in the generic congressional ballot dropping from 2.5 points prior to the raid to having the Democrats lead by 0.1 point today. Not 1-6 hearings, not abortion, not anything else. At least among independents. Trump may have even overtaken inflation, rising prices among independents as to the reason they’ll decide on who they’ll be voting for.
Depends on your definition of tied. I look at it as the democrats having the advantage or lead in the governor’s races and in the senate. But that the GOP leads in the house. I don’t see a tie in any of those three types of elections. I see one or the other party having a lead at the end of the first quarter of play. The Democrats up by a field goal in the Senate game and in the governors’ game, the GOP up by a touchdown in the house game. But with 3 quarters left to play.
How you figger? It's two months until the elections. We're in the final quarter mile of this horse race.
And the horses are definitely not running side by side across the track toward the finish.
It's not even close to a tie. There will be no photo finishes...House Reeps are leading by 15 lengths...Senate Dems are leading by three.
Governorships and statehouse races are a different league...but the rules are the same and a win is a win. There will be thousands of elections nationwide on November 8th.
Would it be a tie if half of them were won by Democrats? Would it be a tie if half the voters voted for Reeps?
If it's a tie, will the competitors turn to each other, shake hands, and congratulate each other on a good race? Some will, some will act churlish...
And we, the voters, will accept the results and get on with our lives...
September is the official start of the campaign season. Everything prior has been pre-season speculation, forecasting and bantering. We still have some states who haven’t had their primaries yet. New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Rhode Island. The rosters aren’t completed yet. Until they are, I suppose you could call this pre-season games. We didn’t know who most of the candidates would be until August, the end of August. We all had ideas, but nothing official.
I usually look at the end of September as halftime, then the middle of October as the three quarter mark as each party makes its two week push to the finish line.
I live in Washington state. I keep seeing ads put up by a sitting house member and she is a Democrat. She is putting up a lot of ads. Not once has she even mentioned her Republican opponent. Typical for a Democrat. They just don't seem to be able to go after the opposition. The opposition, incidentally, is raking her over the coals of liberalism, etc.
She will probably win just to make my own thoughts wrong. I think she should be going after somebody who believes the big lie, ranks on her regularly, supports the Republican plan to destroy Medicare and Social Security, etc. I guess its just not the Democratic way.
The senate race in Washington is a given, Murray easily. Only 2 of Washington’s congressional races has attracted prognosticators attention. WA 8 and WA 3. WA 8 is rated as a pure tossup while WA 3 leans Republican. Meaning no change in whoever holds the other 8 seats. They’re forecasted to remain with the party that now holds them.
I'm gong to go with Pero on this one....with Donald Trump keeping his shenanigans front and center, it will cause voters to not necessarily vote for Democrats - but to vote against Donald Trump and his GOP-kiss ass hangers-on as these voters did in 2020.
That's a pretty good idea. But remember that in 2020 they rejected Trump and handed a loss to the House while Trump personally gave them the two Georgia Senate seats.
You can expect a few upsets on both sides in November, possibly canceling each other out.
Pero's projection for the House is the one we want to beat. I'm hopeful that Dems will perform slightly better than today's polls indicate. There are 435 elections so there's plenty of wiggle room in the closer races.
A 15 seat loss in the House, and a pickup of 2 Senate seats is my projection.
Exactly Rick, the anti-vote can be huge. I call them anti-voters as they vote against a candidate, but not for any candidate. They don’t care who the candidate’s name is or what party of the person they’re voting for, anyone would do, Atilla the Hun or Genghis Khan would do as long as it wasn’t the candidate they’re voting against.
Biden won the anti-vote in 2020 68-30 over Trump. The anti-voter made up 24% of those who voted. Trump actually won those who voted for a candidate, not against 53-46 over Biden. 2016 was the same, the anti-vote carried Trump over Clinton with Clinton winning those who were voting for a candidate because they wanted that candidate to win. The anti-voter just votes for a candidate to lose, who wins is irrelevant to them.
What we’re seeing today in the ranks of independent voters with Trump front and centered is they have been reminded why they disliked him so. That disliked has moved some away from voting for a Trump led party and its candidates to switch to voting democratic. It’s not that they like the Democrats and want the Democrats to win, they don’t. Those independents who are switching just want the Trump led Republicans to lose more than the Democrat. They’re anti-Trump, not necessarily anti-Republican Party as shown in the 2020 election where 7 million of these anti-Trump voters voted for Biden, but then voted Republican down ballot enabling the Republicans to gain 13 house seats, a governorship and 2 state legislatures.
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 59 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 43 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Safe seats as of 6 Sep, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 15-17 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 228-207 to 230-205.
The reason for the project Republican net gain drop from 18-20 down to 15-17 is 3 Democratic tossup seats moved into the lean Democrat column. Although these 3 seats are still considered competitive, switchable and at risk of flipping to the GOP. It means the democrats have a slight advantage in these 3 seats/districts whereas prior they didn’t.
That they are Greger. What we’re seeing is a movement of independents in some tossup districts changing from Republican to Democrat. We still must remember that the GOP has a big safe seat/district advantage of 198-178 over the Democrats. Also, the Democrats have 24 seats in the tossup column vs. just 8 for the Republicans. Which if split down the middle would translate into 16 seats each which would be a gain of 8 for the GOP. But the Democrats also have 4 currently held seats that looks close to certain to switch to Republican which would put the GOP gain at 12. Looking at the leans, 6 currently democratic held seats lean Republican, 3 currently republican held seats lean Democratic, now we’re at a net gain of 15 for the Republicans. There’s 2 currently held Democratic seats that have been going between tossup and lean Republican over the last couple of months. Hence, my 15-17 Republican net gain.
Keep in mind, I can cover about everything possible except voter turnout. There’re numbers available for almost everything, except voter turnout which might turn the above upside down. There’s no doubt the raid on Mar-a-Lago has been huge for the Democrats. Since the raid the Democrats who were trailing in the generic congressional ballot by 2.5 points now have a 0.2-point lead. Plus, the shift in independent voters from 45-35 Republican to 42-39 Republican. Will this trend continue, time will tell?
What I’m looking for before I give the Democrats a chance at retaining the House is a change in safe seats. The Democrats need to add some seats to their 178 while the GOP needs to drop some of their safe seats from 198. A 20 safe seat advantage is huge.
I've had 15 seats in the "best you can hope for" column for a while and it might be the best you can reasonably hope for in this election.
Unless charges are filed between now and November we've run out of Trump bombshells. Republicans are aware of their problems and are doing everything they can to staunch the bleeding. Like backtracking on abortion and keeping Trump's name out of their mouths.
They planned to run on the economy but prices are coming down and so is Trump's house of cards.
They've essentially got nothing but "Let's Go, Brandon!"
I like going into a race like this! If the House must be on the sacrificial block I want to lose it by as few seats as possible.
Seven would be a nice number. Or eleven...it's kind of a crapshoot anyway.
Welp, Li’l Marco has doubled down on no abortion ever for any reason and has said Trump’s taking of classified docs is a “storage issue.” Now comes information that among the docs Trump was in possession of are nuke docs for a foreign country.
Falling gas prices has helped the democrats as has Trump and all his shenanigans. This last month of all the attention on Trump and not on inflation has been a god sent for the democrats. But food prices, shelter, other items continue to rise and according to Gallup, more folks are feeling the hardships of inflation.
I think if the Republicans can turn this election away from Trump and back on inflation, they may be able to reverse the trend now in the Democrats favor. I’m sure PA senate will go to D Fetterman. WI may also go to D Barnes, so even getting the attention off Trump, back on inflation won’t stop the democrats from retaining control of the senate or gaining at least 3 governorships. The House is trickier, way too many races are in the question mark area. With 43 currently held Democratic seats vs. only 16 Republican held seats in the at risk, switchable column, there’s no doubt the Democrats are in trouble. That they’ll lose control of the house. To have a chance of retaining control of the house, I’d say the democrats must bring down their 43 at risk seat to at least 30 while the GOP rise to at least to 20. After all, the democrats are defending more seats. Time will tell. But today, the trend is going the democrat’s way, mainly because of Donald Trump.
I think if the Republicans can turn this election away from Trump and back on inflation, they may be able to reverse the trend
Unfortunately for them, Trump is his own worst enemy. If his rally in PA is any indication he'll be making headlines right up to election day.
We appear to be witnessing a bit of a lull in the economic collapse, artificial indicators like gasoline prices tend to mask real and bigger issues.
So we're waiting for the next big event or headline to twist the narrative away from its current trajectory...
Rubio taking a hard line on abortion might not play as well as he imagines. So I'm gonna up Deming's chances by a tick or two. Doesn't matter much because the Senate is safe in any case.
I also noticed Demings closing the gap on Rubio. I’ve added Florida to my list. Here is the list as of today. Yes, Trump continues to do all he can do to ensure the democrats retain control of the senate. He's also beginning to effect a few house races. Doug has it right when he said, "Midterms: A battle for control by both parties. Some Republicans fear the election in November will be another referendum on Donald Trump. He lost the last one." This is what this midterm is turning into.
Senate and House update 7 Sep 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – GA D Warnock down from +3 to +2, NH D Hassan up from +5 to +6, Florida added
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +2 Democratic hold R 50, D 50 Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +4 Republican hold R 50 D 50 Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +1 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 49 D 51 Wisconsin Johnson R – D Barnes +1 Democratic gain R 48 D 52
The Democrats gain 2 seats, giving them a 52-48 advantage. Harris can now take some days off.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 59 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 43 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 15-17 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 228-207 to 230-205.
If there’s a saying that captures why midterms go so poorly for the president’s party, it’s the idea that “midterms are a referendum, not a choice.” If it’s a referendum, the Democrats are in trouble. After all, President Joe Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s.
But this year, there’s a pretty good reason to think this won’t just be a referendum: Donald Trump.”
In other words, the focus of the voters are turning away from Biden and the Democratic controlled congress to focus on Donald Trump. Instead of a referendum on Biden and company, this midterm is becoming a referendum on Donald Trump. Which is a good thing for the Democrats especially when it comes to the independent vote which makes up 41% of the electorate. Independents don’t like Trump much nor his endorsed or chosen candidates.
I’d add one more thing, the Republicans have been too busy fighting the 2020 election than paying much attention to this one, the 2022 midterms. The Democrats have been paying attention to 2022, with better candidates and a political strategy that is now placing Trump front and centered. It’s working.
GOP’s Graham to Again Propose National Abortion Restrictions
South Carolina senator to introduce legislation Tuesday Graham’s action raises profile of abortion rights as issue
There's a paywall, but the headlines says "restrictions" rather than your inflammatory and intentional misquote.
Most Americans favor some restrictions on abortion. This puts the conversation on the table for codifying abortion rights.
If you were actually interested in rights and not political talking points you'd see this as a terrific place to begin bi-partisan talks on abortion rights.
If you were actually interested in rights and not political talking points you'd see this as a terrific place to begin bi-partisan talks on abortion rights.
There is no discussion of what people can do with their own body. It's nobody's business. Nosy people need to butt-out and mind their own business.
Actually, Graham bill is where most Americans stand on restrictions to abortion. 69% of all Americans favor legal abortions. 60% favor legal abortions during the first trimester, but only 28% favor abortion being legal through the second trimester which leaves the remaining 9% that abortion should be legal with no restrictions.
Actually, Graham bill is where most Americans stand on restrictions to abortion. 69% of all Americans favor legal abortions. 60% favor legal abortions during the first trimester, but only 28% favor abortion being legal through the second trimester which leaves the remaining 9% that abortion should be legal with no restrictions.
Why condemn something that 60% of all Americans favor?
Fifteen is a little extreme but I think most would accept a ban after 18-20 weeks, because after Week 20 you're beginning to see possible fetal viability. Be sure to add that almost everyone would make late term exceptions in cases of fetal incompatibility with life or medical emergency to the mother.
I am just going to say this: Speaking as a gay male myself, it's none of some closet fa**ot's business what a woman does wither her body. Fck off Lindsey Graham.
Actually Rick, I agree. Far as I’m concerned the choice of an abortion or prostitution or whatever should be left to the woman. After all, it’s her body. But neither is an issue that will decide who I vote for. I’ve voted for both pro-life and pro-choice candidates. For me, this argument of it’s her body, she should be able to do with it as she chooses works for both above. It can’t work for one without working for the other.
Although I think personally think abortion should be legal with no restrictions. I view the first trimester limitation on abortion with exceptions for things like the life of the mother and the viability of the fetus is a commonsense approach to solving the issue. That is if both major parties want to solve it. But I’m sure it will never be solved as abortion is too hot and valuable as a campaign issue used to fire up the base than to solve it.
Since the SCOTUS ruled that the federal government, correct me if I’m wrong about this, since abortion isn’t addressed in the constitution as a power for congress, it’s left to the states. Congress can neither make abortion legal with restrictions or no restrictions and neither can congress ban abortion or make abortion illegal nationwide. Not if that power resides in the states. So it seems, at least to me, Graham’s proposal if passed would be ruled unconstitutional as it stands now, the states only have the power to control or regulate or make abortion legal or illegal.
One of the problems with the GOP's abortion stance, is that the GOP takes a Christian point of view to the topic and ignores other religion's philosophy of abortion. For example, in Judaism, life starts when the born infant takes breath after the umbilical cord is cut.
In the conservative Christian POV, life starts when the ovum and sperm unite - which is a pretty radical idea of when life beings as fertilized egg is not viable on its own.
With the NH primary results in, the primary season is not officially over, closed. I decided to review some of the primaries. The GOP primary in NH comes close to guaranteeing incumbent D Hassan will win and keep her senate seat. OH, AZ, GA, NC, PA are other states where the GOP has gone for a weak general election candidate over a candidate that stood a better chance at winning over independents and winning in the general election. The same goes for some governor races. It seems the Republicans this year have nominated a bunch of poor general election candidates. One can conclude that the Republicans this year, weren’t all that interested in coming up with good candidates that had a good chance of winning. They were more interested in nominating Trump endorsed or chosen candidates even if those candidates were poor choices for the winning the general election. Reducing the chances, the odds of winning in the general election in order to make a primary statement. Which is very good news for the Democrats.
Perhaps the Republicans don’t care if the Democrats retain power along with their control of congress. Republicans were more interested in helping Trump get his revenge against candidates that aren't 100% loyal to him than winning in November. Their poor choices of candidates sure seem to show that.
Major events can and do change how elections playout. Today, the Democrats whether on purpose or just the way things worked out, the focus for this midterm has switched from inflation to Trump. At least among independents. But the one event if it happens that could easily bring the attention back to inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores is the looming railroad strike.
Looming railroad strike could cripple US economy, transportation
Now I said if this happens and how long it lasts. The possibility is there. If food, other items prices continue rise, empty shelves begin to reappear in stores, the democrats could feel the full blame. Right, wrong or indifferent, Independents are quick to blame those in charge when their wallets begin to thin and go flat.
If food, other items prices continue rise, empty shelves begin to reappear in stores, the democrats could feel the full blame. Right, wrong or indifferent, Independents are quick to blame those in charge when their wallets begin to thin and go flat.
This just in... "Democrats control the nation's railroads"
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden said Thursday that a tentative railway labor agreement has been reached, averting a strike that could have been devastating to the economy before the pivotal midterm elections.
I don't think many understand the independent's mindset of always blaming the party in power for things that go wrong. It doesn't matter which party, just blame the one in charge. They've always been this way and I suppose will always be.
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden said Thursday that a tentative railway labor agreement has been reached, averting a strike that could have been devastating to the economy before the pivotal midterm elections.
I don't think many understand the independent's mindset of always blaming the party in power for things that go wrong. It doesn't matter which party, just blame the one in charge. They've always been this way and I suppose will always be.
Poor MAGA world, they were hoping that the railroad strike could be their October Surprise.
If unions bring the nation and the economy to its knees then yes, folks are going to vote against unions.
Which party is pro-union? Democrats.
But I expect the rail strike to be short-lived and some highly paid RR workers will become even more highly paid and coddled.
Pero, My understanding is that Dobbs struck down Roe because Roe said abortion was an unenumerated right. Dobbs says it's not a constitutional right. The argument is probably legally and constitutionally sound.
The ball is in the liberal's court now and it's up to them to provide an argument to the contrary. there are many many unenumerated rights that fall under this or that clause.
I'm okay with states having a choice. Some will make the wrong choice for now but I expect that slowly most states will lose enough legal battles and elections that they will come around to a more equitable arrangement.
Men and governments tend to meddle in a lot of places they shouldn't.
Can the federal government legislate access to abortion?
I don't know...seems to me they could, just as they could enact a national ban or national restrictions... The door swings both ways.
I think avoiding the strike may be a bigger boon than many people think. It shows Biden being successful. Hopefully the upswing will be soon enough and strong enough to affect the midterms.
I mentioned elsewhere that the strike would be short-lived...all credit goes to Biden for using his union clout to help settle the labor dispute.
The price of gasoline has fallen but natural gas is on the rise...the cheap plentiful fuel that we bet our future on is a hostage of Russia along with the world economy.
But I don't think that nut will fall off the tree until after midterms when the cold winds blow and so do the power bills.
Might actually be a boon to renewable energy sources.
I agree Greger. Slowly legal abortion will work it way back in the vast majority of states.
Unions or union households went to Biden 56-40 making up 20% of those who voted. Non-union household barely went to Biden in 2020 50-49. The union vote was big.
Those 36 house seats with no opposition are part of safe seats for both parties. A total of 376 out of the 435 house seats are basically guaranteed for the party that now holds them to keep them. Safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican. You might as well not hold any election in those 376 districts as the outcome is well known in advance. We do have now 59 competitive seats to be determine by vote. This 59 is above the normal average for competitive seats. The historical average is 51, but if you deleted the 4 wave elections of 1994, 2010, 2006 and 2018, the normal average for any house election for competitive seats is 41. Think about that, in an average house election there are only 41 districts where your vote counts in determining who wins that district. The other 394 are just going through the motion of voting in a pre-determined outcome.
The other 394 are just going through the motion of voting in a pre-determined outcome.
Kind of represents an overall satisfaction(with some reservations) in the way things are going.
I picked up that "best Dems can hope for" phrase At the Times or maybe the Atlantic weeks ago...
Someone had crunched the numbers and that was literally the best Dems could hope for.
Dems should be dancing in the streets if the numbers come in as I say...Reeps will have a 10-seat advantage in the House. a majority as thin as Occam's razor!
The model I've got running shows them being noisy and obstreperous but ineffective. An unwelcome distraction and a reminder of why we all hated Trump and his thuggish supporters. All of whom are about to find themselves to be roadkill on the highway of history.
Like supporters of other "Lost Causes", they'll more and more be finding themselves on the wrong side of history.
Have you talked to any climate change deniers lately? They're coming down as fast as confederate statues. Where did the TEA Party go...?
And as I mentioned above, abortion deniers will also begin to fall as medical science and jurisprudence clash with religious indoctrination.
From my viewpoint, Democrats appear to be ticking along nicely and playing the opposition like a fiddle.
But there's only so much you can reasonably hope for in an election.
If the GOP retakes the house, they will make a lot of noise, but nothing accomplished. Two reasons for that, Schumer will probably table most republican house passed bills as Reid did during the 2011-2014 period when the GOP controlled the House, but not the senate. Then you always have the presidential veto. Also, the filibuster on the slight chance the Republicans can capture the senate which I don’t see how today.
I do however see a lot of revenge tactics coming from a Republican controlled house. I wouldn’t be surprised, I half expect the GOP house will impeach Biden. Only because the democrats impeached Trump twice. They’ll come up with some high-sounding reason, but it’ll boil down to revenge for impeaching Trump. I also expect McCarthy to take some revenge on Pelosi for her not allowing the minority party to choose their own members of the 1-6 committee. McCarthy if he becomes speaker is sure to deny certain democrats any committee appointments. Revenge big style. I may be wrong about this; I doubt it though. Democrats like Adam Schiff will probably find themselves without a committee assignment with McCarthy citing Pelosi precedence setting denial. Denying the minority their chose on committees had never been done before.
Regardless, if the democrats retain control of the senate, I’d be happy about that along with every other democrat who should be. Even with the loss of the house. It would be an historic victory for a party whose president is hovering around 40% overall job approval with a majority of Americans disliking the job Biden is doing.
Thank God for Donald Trump, without him you’d be looking at 2010 losses in the house, 63 seats along with 2014 losses in the senate, 10 seats. This midterm if the election goes the way the numbers say it will today, will be historic. An all-time historic win for the Democrats even with the loss of the house. This has never happened before. An historic win courtesy of Donald Trump, his meddling in the GOP primaries providing very poor quality far right, possibly unelectable candidates for the general election, his election deniers along with the GOP massive overreach going against popular opinion, wants and wishes.
The key to the Democrats success or projected success this midterm is independents whose focus has been taken off Biden and company, off inflation and these other issues and has gone directly to focusing on Trump. If the Democrats keep that focus on Trump they’ll do just fine, great by historical standards. In reality, this shouldn’t be happening, but it is.
Thank God for Donald Trump, without him you’d be looking at 2010 losses in the house,
And with him, and with a Republican controlled House, he will get the time he needs to return as a semi-martyred superhero of the stupid. His social media narrative is the online version of Mein Kampf, and in the ensuing two years till 2024 he will marshal insurrectionist House members into a new NSDAP.
So no, I don't think I will be thanking anyone for Trump, certainly not God. You seem to be focused on numbers so much that you're ignoring game plans for the future.
It's difficult to focus on this as a "horse race" when one team of horses has the dismantling of Western democracy as its singular goal.
Jeffrey, my hope is once the Republicans suffer these historic losses, they’ll realize how big an albatross Trump is around their necks. As for the future. Let Trump run in 2024, that would be a god sent to the democrats. Independents aren’t going to vote for him. The Democrats would win in a landslide. 60% of the total vote is a possibility. Trump’s a has been, but Trump himself, his followers and it seems most democrats don’t realize that. I can’t understand what terrifies the Democrats so much about Trump. Trump is an overt buffoon, an obnoxious one, uncouth, rude, a personality that even his mother would abhor.
Keep in mind, the republicans are still the smaller of the two major parties, they must win the independent vote or lose the election. With Trump running in 2024, losing is guaranteed. Only 35% of independents have a favorable view of Trump 58% see him negatively or unfavorable. History has shown folks usually don't vote for someone they dislike, and independents really dislike Trump.
You seen this year with the midterms coming up. How they went from a red wave to the Democrats gaining governors and senators with approximately a 20% chance at keeping the house. Go back to February, March timeframe when the focus was on inflation, not Trump. It looked like the GOP would gain the senate and the house by substantial numbers. But not since Trump became the focus beginning in August. Trump is poison to independents. All thanks to Trump and some very smart campaign strategy by the democrats, they’ll have an excellent midterm when they should have been demolished. Without Trump, I’m certain the democrats would have been.
I’m not worried about Trump. He’s too disliked. I’d worry about someone who replaces him with basically the same beliefs. Someone who acts like an adult, behaves like a candidate should, maybe a smooth talker, someone with political experience. Someone with the ability to attract independents which Trump can’t. That someone is who you should be worried about, not Trump.
That someone is in the future, but the democrats are too fixated on Trump to worry about the future which I think will come sooner than later. Perhaps as early as 2024.
It's difficult to focus on this as a "horse race" when one team of horses has the dismantling of Western democracy as its singular goal.
I reckon once you've convinced yourself that half of America is your sworn enemy out to destroy your way of life, it's hard to focus on much of anything.
The other party has that kind of tunnel vision too.
Still and yet...this upcoming election is an election...it's one of the things that sets democracies apart from non-democracies...we vote on things.
I imagine the election will pretty much go off without a hitch and the rightful winners will be announced.
And I imagine that the rightful winners, regardless of party, will NOT set about dismantling Western democracy.
And that two years hence...another election will be held! Which will go off pretty much without a hitch and the rightful winners will be announced.
And I imagine that the rightful winners, regardless of party, will NOT set about dismantling Western democracy.
I expect to see this pattern continue. And no amount of histrionics is liable to convince me otherwise. We will see legislation we disagree with, and policies we abhor. People elected who shouldn't be elected...and a myriad of awful things.
But we will continue to see fair elections every two years that somewhat reflect the will of the nation. Whether we agree with the will of the nation or not...That too is a part of democracy.
This is just another horse race in a long history of horse races. It's not the restaurant at the end of the universe and this isn't our final meal.
And I think we know exactly how it's going to turn out, so it's not just another horserace, it's a kind of a boring one...but we have to get it behind us before we can begin to focus on 2024.
By the numbers Greger, 24% of Likely U.S. Voters, this is all voters, not broke down by party think Biden voters are America’s biggest enemy. The same number (24%) see China as enemy number one. Nearly as many (22%) regard Trump voters as the biggest enemy, while 10% view Russia and seven percent (7%) North Korea as the largest threat to the United States. Eleven percent (11%) are more wary of something else
By party, 37% of Republicans feel Biden voters are the biggest enemy, just edging the 34% who feel that way about China. Thirty-five percent (35%) of Democrats think Trump voters are the biggest threat, far and above the danger posed by all the others.
This was an old poll, but I think those numbers may has risen some as to Democrats and Republicans thinking the other is this nation’s biggest enemy. The numbers reflect today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship.
As for our democracy being threaten, you have this.
WASHINGTON — The good news is that deeply divided Americans agree on at least one thing. The bad news is they share the view that their nearly two-and-a-half-century-old democracy is in danger — and disagree drastically about who is threatening it.
In a remarkable consensus, a new Quinnipiac University poll found that 69 percent of Democrats and 69 percent of Republicans say that democracy is “in danger of collapse.” But one side blames former President Donald J. Trump and his “MAGA Republicans” while the other fingers President Biden and the “socialist Democrats.”
There you have it. Each side views the other as being the threat to democracy, each party views the other as the party that is bringing this country to being close to the collapse of its democracy. Knowing these numbers, for folks who are gleeful in citing the rising percentage of those who are placing the threat to democracy as a top issue, be careful. You probably have a fairly equal number of Republicans and democrats in thinking our democracy is threaten. Half thinking the threat comes from Republicans, the other half thinking the threat comes from democrats.
I generally agree with the Democrats. They've got a ways to go but they're on the right track.
I know a lot of Republicans, they aren't monsters. They aren't America's worst enemies.
I know a lot of Democrats too. They aren't the monsters that the Republicans think they are either.
It's just political marketing strategy. It keeps the donations rolling in and keeps interest up in the otherwise mundane business of governing. If not for the ultra-partisan divide there wouldn't be enough interest in government to keep it alive.
I’m old enough, I suppose you too Greger that can remember when both parties agreed on most issues, not all. There were some highly divisive issues even back then. That the partisan divide on political ideology was more like a small stream than the Grand Canyon or the Pacific Ocean. Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ, even Nixon didn’t have this highly partisan effect. You can look at the votes on the Civil Rights legislation and Medicare, the difference wasn’t parties.
Civil Rights Bill votes in congress House Democrats 153 AYE 91 NAY – Republicans 136 AYE 35 NAY Senate Democrats 46 AYE 21 NAY – Republicans 27 AYE 6 NAY
The problem I think is both parties have become much more ideological. Back than both major parties had their conservatives and liberal wings. The Democrats had their solid conservative southern base while the Republicans held their Rockefeller liberal Northeastern base. It’s hard to imagine today when the Northeast was Republican territory and the south Democratic. Since then both major parties discarded their unwanted wings and are now hard at work discarding their moderates. Which has increased the number of independents which most fall somewhere in-between the two major parties. Of course, you have those independents to the far right or far left of both parties. This in-between ideological wise may not be that accurate either. I found a lot of independents are for somethings the Democrats stand for, against others being the same for the Republicans, for some, against some. I like to use myself as an example, pro-choice and pro-2nd amendment at the same time. One who backs the democrats on some issues and the republicans on others. But have no political party to call home. I never belonged to a political party except Ross Perot’s Reform Party and that ceased when Pat Buchanan and his cronies took it over.
This isn’t saying that from IKE on that the Republican Party wasn’t known as the conservative party or the Democratic Party as the liberal party. But I remember several Republicans stating during the 40-year reign of Democratic control of the house of representatives 1955-1994, that the Republican Party believed in the same things the Democratic Party did, but only a little bit less.
Today, the hard-core liberals are all democrats, the hard-core conservatives are all republicans and the non-hard core of either political ideologies are independents or swing voters. I’ve always preferred swing voter to independents. Hence the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship base on hard- core political ideology between the two major parties.
I was glancing through the governor races, are the Republicans so stupid that they believe a far right Trumper can win the governorships of Maryland and Massachusetts. The Democrat leads by 22 and 26 points. Like some of the GOP senate nominee, GA, AZ, PA, NH, NC, they make no sense if the goal is winning in November. Oh well, if the Republicans are interested in only making a statement, that’s their problem.
Primary voters don't really think beyond the primaries.
That's how we got De Santis. 2018 was a blue wave year. Florida Dems chose a progressive Black mayor over the more centrist daughter of a former governor...
To me, that implies Florida Democrats just wanted to make a statement, not win an election. Of course, I’m a swing voter who thinks it’s stupid not to nominate someone who has a decent chance of winning in the general. I’m used to the Republicans doing this, making a statement, not so much with the Democrats. That may be changing a progressive become a larger segment of the Democratic party ousting more of the moderates. I don’t think the blue dog democrats still exist. If so, there may be a handful.
Perhaps we need a new way of choosing candidates. Maybe Alaska has something going for them that the rest of the states should look at. I always been a fan of the jungle primary, we use that in Georgia for special elections, then a runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives 50% plus one vote.
I remember 2018, that was a blue wave election where the Democrats gained 44 house seats. A huge anti-Trump vote that year. Democratic candidates received 53.4% of the vote vs. 44.8% for the Republicans.
That’s what great about Georgia. We only register to vote. No party registration. So we can choose which primaries to vote in. The only stipulation is if there’s a runoff, we must vote in the runoff of the party we originally voted in their primary. No crossing over to vote in the other party’s primary runoff.
I’ve flipped back and forth between Democratic and Republican primaries so many times over the years, that neither party knows what to think of me. I get campaign propaganda mail from both parties. A whole lot of it. I just rip them up and throw them in the trash. Both parties are wasting a lot of mail expense on me. Outside of the Braves games, I don’t watch live TV either. So, all the money the two major parties spend on negative TV propaganda political ads is also wasted on me. I stream the shows and channels I watch. I get the History Vault, Discovery plus, Amazon Prime and the like. No commercials, no propaganda. YouTube is also nice for movies and shows with no commercials. I watch my TV, shows on my laptop with an extra big monitor. I can’t remember when I last turned on our TV.
I remember 2018, that was a blue wave election where the Democrats gained 44 house seats. A huge anti-Trump vote that year. Democratic candidates received 53.4% of the vote vs. 44.8% for the Republicans.
If Democratic primary voters had given it much thought they woulda passed over the black dude.
We coulda been a blue state, Instead, we got De Santis. And we owe this to overzealous primary voters who would rather make a statement than win an elecction.
You seen some of that in 2020 also. There were 3 House incumbent pro-life Democrats that were defeated in their democratic primaries by pro-choice democrats in swing or slightly red districts. All 3 pro-choice Democratic candidates lost in the general. I’m positive had the Democrats stuck with those 3 pro-life incumbent democrats, they would have won. Those 3 lost seats were part of the 13 seats the Republican Party gained in 2020.
If the goal is winning elections, general elections that is. The democrats shot themselves in the foot in order to make a statement. Instead of having a 225-210 majority, the democrats have a 222-213 majority. Instead of the Republicans needing a net gain of 5 seats to retake control of the house, the GOP would have needed 8. Those three lost seats in order to make a statement may cost the Democrats control of the house.
Being a non-partisan, I never saw the need to make a statement. I focused on having the candidates with the best chances of winning in November. Even if those candidates are Manchin’s and Sinema’s. Every democrat elected counts as to who controls what. Without Manchin and Sinema, the senate would be controlled by Republicans.
The election reform bill which overhauls the arcane 1800s-era statute known as the Electoral Count Act that governs, along with the U.S. Constitution, how states and Congress certify electors and declare presidential election winners has passed the house. You also have at least 10 Republicans senators in favor of the senate version.
From the article: While the House bill is more expansive than the Senate version, the two bills cover similar ground and members in both chambers are optimistic that they can work out the differences. And despite the mostly party-line vote in the House, supporters are encouraged by the bipartisan effort in the Senate.
I think polls are very useful if one averages them out and then takes into consideration the margin of error. There are some polls I put a lot of stock in and others I don’t. The generic congressional poll is one I don’t. It a nationwide poll which gives us the nationwide numbers. That one doesn’t go district by district, just amasses what the total vote projection will be nationally. There can be quite a lot of differences between the total congressional vote vs. districts won and lost.
There are 435 elections for the House, not one big election as the Generic congressional ballot shows. It’s like the presidential, we have 50 different elections, not one mass election which the popular vote totals show. In the presidential, you need to go state by state, not any nationwide total of the vote. Same with the House of Representatives, take it district by district, not as one election, but as 435 different elections. Also, as far as the nationwide vote totals go for the House, one needs to remember there are 36 districts that have only one name on the ballot, no opposition. All votes will go to the candidate in these uncontested elections which skews the total congressional vote total.
I have no problem with CBS’s projection, but that is but one of many. It isn’t that far off from 14-16 Republican seat gain I have as of today. There’s one site that provides several projections, 270 to win. The difference between them, CBS and 270 to win is 270 to win includes tossup districts where CBS don’t.
These are some of the sites where I get my information, then average everything out. Sometimes averaging works, sometimes it doesn’t. Usually I come within a handful of districts. But I don’t use just one site. I do it differently than these prognosticators. I count lean and tossup seats as being competitive along with being at risk, switchable. Leans seats are still within the margin of error although one party or candidate has an advantage. I also like to let folks know who holds, which party holds these competitive, at risk of switching seats. The folks above average out to 24 tossup seats. Those tossup seats don’t include the lean seats which are also competitive and at risk. The average projection for those 9 sites is Republican 215, Democrat 196, tossups 24. Of those 24 tossups, 16 are currently held by Democrats, 8 currently held by Republicans. Using the average of 215 being projected, the Republicans would need but to win 3 of the 24 tossup seats to gain the majority while the Democrats would have to win 22 of 24.
If those 24 tossup seats were to split down the middle, 12 each, the GOP would have 227-208. Which basically matches CBS’s total of 223-212.
Another thing Rick, on 16 Sep the Democrats had a 45.0-43.7 lead in the generic congressional ballot. Today, the Democrats lead has shrunk to 0.3 points, 45.3-45.0.
A shift in momentum? Too early to tell. The Republicans had a 2.5-3.0 lead until the beginning of August, then the Democrats took the lead, up to 1,3 points middle of September. But since then the GOP has narrowed that lead. Maybe rising prices, inflation is returning to the fore instead of Trump. We’ll see.
"If you are in your 60s or 70s or early 80s now, some of your youth was spent in the epic maelstrom that was the 1960s, a time of immense cultural change. The people who didn’t trust anyone over 30 are now at least twice that age themselves, and their formative years include supporting precisely the things that today’s GOP is targeting.
Consider: Many of the laws that the Supreme Court is weakening, blocking or overturning were the product of our cohort: the Voting Rights Act of 1965 (which followed the epic registration drives led by young activists in the South), the Gun Control Act of 1968 (which followed the generation-shaking assassinations of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy and the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.), the Clean Air Act of 1971 (after young people organized the first Earth Day) and Roe vs. Wade in 1973.
Those of us past 60 spent a good part of our lives with guardrails in place so most Americans could vote, with some kinds of restrictions on assault weapons, with a federal government trying to clean up pollution and with women exercising control over their bodies. If we were going to be conservative, this is what we’d be conserving!"
Want to know something comical? In the Georgia senate race D Warnock has come out that the Atlanta Braves should change their name, R Walker says no. This is now the talk of the town so to speak. Changing the name of the Atlanta Braves Baseball team has overtaken the issues of abortion, inflation, rising prices, etc. At least for the time being.
I’ll keep an eye on this race as Warnock has a slim 0.3-point lead according to RCP averages. Well within the margin of error which simply means Warnock may be ahead as much as 3.3 points or trailing as much as 2.7 points.
Could the Georgia Senate race be determined on the issue of changing the name of the Atlanta Braves? Very possible. Most Georgians and in particularly, Atlanta Braves baseball fans don’t want the name changed. I’m sure this name changing issue won’t affect who Republicans and Democrats will vote for. Independents are another matter, they’re finicky and it doesn’t take much to change who’ll they vote for. Today independents say they’ll vote for Warnock by a 48-44 margin. This name changing issue which has moved to the top of the issues list here in Georgia, could change that.
Will the hot political issue of changing the Atlanta Braves name become the issue that decides the Georgia Senate Race? Time will tell. I do think it could sway some independents away from Warnock if their Braves fans.
I think so too. Warnock brought it up speaking at a rally of Korean seniors northeast of Atlanta. There was no rhyme or reason to bring up the changing of the name of the Atlanta Braves. Asinine may be too soft of a word. Most Asians are firmly behind Warnock. I doubt changing the name of the Braves even crossed those Korean Seniors mind. I also doubt there were many baseball fans among them although I could be wrong about that. Many Koreans are avid baseball fans. We’ll see, as I said I’m keeping an eye on this.
Maybe this was a trial balloon to see how it would play. It’s the hurricane that is getting most of the play today on the news.
I wonder how much election infrastructure damage/issues will prevent voters in the Port Charlotte metro area to not be able to vote. This is a heavily red area and Rubio and Demmings are extremely close in their race.
Keep in mind the MOE, margin of error on these polls are plus or minus 4.4 points. Which means Rubio could be ahead by as much as 7.2 points or behind by 1.6 points. But since all 4 polls listed has Rubio ahead, I think it’s a safe assumption to conclude Rubio is ahead. By how much? The 2.8 points looks about right to me.
Yes, the senate race is a very close. In Florida's governors race, DeSantis lead is outside the MOE, he looks like he is comfortably in the lead.
I would rate the governor’s race as likely Republican, DeSantis, the senate race as lean Republican, Rubio. I say two reasons for the difference. One is independents going for DeSantis by 3 points but going for Demmings by 1. Two is the senate races are more national in nature while usually the governor races are more local, base more on local issues than national. Liberal states like Massachusetts and Maryland have Republican governors along with Kansas having a Democratic governor. But neither Massachusetts nor Maryland would ever elect a Republicans as senator while Kansas won’t elect a Democrat as senator. Unless exceptional circumstance prevails.
This hurricane might not be good for DeSantis. There were some legislatorial shenanigans in regards to property insurance which has forced many Florida home insurers into insolvency and forced them to pull out of Florida.
There may be thousands of homeowners who find themselves without insurance after the storm.
Very true. An unforeseen major event can turn the old apple cart upside down. The FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago was unforeseen event, at least by me. That led to Trump being a headline news star which completely switched the momentum of this year’s midterms away from the Republicans onto the Democrats. But it seems with Trump not the old headline news star for the last week or so, that momentum has slowed and possibly has reversed. Time will tell.
I always thought Rubio being fairly safe, but that’s not what the recent polls are showing. I hadn’t followed the governor races closely, just a glance now and then. I have read where Trump has told Republican donors not to donate anymore to DeSantis as he might challenge Trump for the 2024 presidential election. Another case of Trump being willing to throw another Republican under the bus for his own personal ends. He did that here in Georgia with the January 2021 senate runoffs.
Trump has made Kemp his enemy and seems to be helping Abrams, now Florida with DeSantis. Trump was the big reason the Republicans lost their two Georgia senate seats back in 2021. Trump choose the worst possible candidates for the general election in PA, OH, NC, AZ and perhaps a couple of more. A lot of his choices for governors played right into the Democrats hand. This guy is one huge asset for the Democrats. If I were a democrat, I’d want to keep this guy around forever and in front of the cameras as long as I could.
Mail ballot delays possible in parts of Florida amid Hurricane Ian, election official says
Quote
"Attempts to reach elections officials in Lee and Charlotte County — where Ian roared ashore Wednesday — were unsuccessful," the newspaper reported. "Nearly 200,000 people voted by mail in those two counties during the most recent midterm election, in 2018."
There has been slight movement in the senate races toward the GOP. Wisconsin, Rep Johnson has retaken the lead over Dem Barnes. I’ve moved WI from a democratic gain to a Republican hold in my last house/senate forecast I posted here. Current numbers indicate a Democratic controlled senate 51-49 instead of 52-48. A net gain of 1 instead of 2 for the democrats.
Georgia remains in the lean Democratic column. Warnock with a slight 0.7-point lead. Basically, a tossup, but Warnock as the incumbent has the slight advantage. Democratic hold for the time being.
Laxalt in NV has taken the lead over Dem Cortez Masto. I’ve keep this state in the Democratic hold category. As I believe NV’s Hispanics will come back into the fold to support Cortez Masto. Hispanic’s in NV has been moving toward the Republicans. As is the case in the border states of Texas, New Mexico and Arizona.
If NV flips, your back to a 50-50 senate. NV is one state I am keeping a very close eye on.
In NC, Rep Budd was floundering until a couple of weeks ago. He’s now ahead and gaining steam. Another GOP hold.
Rep Vance in OH is still having problems opening up a lead which all the pundits expect he will or should have already. But Dem Ryan is giving him all he wants. OH might be the shocker state this midterm in the senate races. OH was rated safe Republican until Trump endorsed Vance won the GOP primary there. Now OH is a lean Republican race.
Yes, over the last two weeks, the senate has swung slightly towards the Republicans. But not enough for the GOP to retake control Enough however to limit their loses from 2 down to 1 with perhaps another 50-50 tie. Depending on GA and NV.
Keep in mind with Biden at 42% overall job approval, the historical average is a lost of 6 senate seats for the party who president is hovering around 40% approval. Gaining a senate seat or two when a president is hovering around 40% approval is unheard of in this country’s long history of midterm elections or since presidential approval stats began with FDR by Gallup and Pew Research.
I’d place the odds of the Republicans taking control of the senate at 35% today. I’d say the worst the Democrats can do is another 50-50 tie, the best, 53-47 if the Democrats retain all their current seats and add WI, PA and NC. Today, however, a gain of one seat, PA with the remaining senate seats remaining with the party that currently holds them. Very close races in currently held Dem GA, NV, and GOP held OH, NC, WI which depending on voter turnout and how independents decide who they’ll vote for could go either way.
House update 30 Sep 2022. Over the last week there’s been 5 tossup democratic held seats go over to the lean Democratic column. This change hasn’t changed the number of at risk, flappable seats for the Democrats, they still have 43 at risk seats, this number of at risk democratic held seats hasn’t changed since 1 Sep. The Republicans had one of their lean Republican seats go into the Republican tossup column bring their tossups to 9. But here again, that change didn’t affect their total of 16 at risk, switchable seats. What these changes have done is drop the projected Republican gain in the house from 14-16 down to 12-14. The movement of 5 democratic held seats out of the tossup column into the lean democratic column plus the addition of one Republican held seat from lean Republican to tossup caused the drop of 2 seats in the projected GOP gain.
However, the number of safe seats, 178 Democratic, 198 Republican hasn’t changed. Simply put, the Democrats still need to win 40 out of the 59 to retain control of the house. This number hasn’t changed either. But with the movement of seats from tossup to lean democratic along with the one seat moving from lean Republican to tossup. This has enhanced the Democrats chances of winning those 40 seats. The Republican need to win but 20 out of the 59 to regain control of the house. A week ago, I’d have given only a 15% chance of the Democrats retain control of the House. Today, I’d up that to 20% chance. But until the number of safe seats begin to climb past the Democrats 178 number they have now, I wouldn’t get too excited. This movement could be just the normal ups and downs as seats change columns. Time will tell
Yeah Rick, this has been a very strange week. The Democrats increased their chances of retaining the house while the Republican increased their chances of regaining the senate. A split like that doesn’t happen very often. Let’s forget my odds, let’s go with Nate Silver’s 538.
The Democrats increased their chance of retaining the house from 28% on 21 Sep to 31% on 30 Sep. However, the Democrats chance of retaining the senate per Nate’s 538 decreased from 71% on 21 Sep to 68% on 30 Sep.
Why? The House I covered earlier. 5 Democratic tossup seats changed to 5 lean Democratic seats plus one lean Republican seat went into the tossup column. Easy enough to understand. Keep in mind, all those six seats that changed categories this last week are still very much in the at risk, flappable columns. It isn’t like any seats moved out of the at risk, switchable category, they’re all still in this category. The senate, the difference is Wisconsin which flipped from a Democratic gain to a Republican hold. A drop for the Democrats from a 52-48 advantage in the senate down to a 51-49 advantage.
Then if you look at RCP generic congressional ballot, the Democrats had a 1.3-point lead on 21 Sep, now on 30 Sep, they trail by 0.9 points.
If we look at Nate Silver’s generic congressional ballot, the Democrats had a 1.4-point lead on 21 Sep, upped their lead to 1.9 on 24 Sep before falling back to a 1.3 point lead today or 20 Sep.
Does all of this mean we have a disconnect with the odds for Republicans in the senate rising slightly while the odds in the house rising slightly for the Democrats? I think not. We have 435 different elections in the house. The national generic congressional ballot treats the 435 separate elections as one. Wisconsin switching to a Republican hold is but one state. Each state has its own dynamics as to senate and governor races. Also, the momentum that shifted from Republicans to Democrats the first week of August thanks to Trump, seems to be shifting back to the Republicans if this article is correct.
Most important, we all know how Republicans and Democrats will vote. The unknown fact is we still have 20% of independents still in the undecided column. No one know how this 20% will come down on election day.
Earlier tonight I read an article by a female journalist who spent the summer traveling rural America, interviewing folks about the state of America. I wish I could find the article now, but she talked about a lot folks she spoke to never voted before, but what Donald Trump has done since leaving office, plus the GOP-led Dobbs decision and the legislation that red states have enacted as a result of Dobbs (penalizing women criminally) has caused a lot of folks to register to vote. It’s 2:1 women to men. People are pissed that a right that was had for 50 years is now gone.
Re: Polls
My understanding is that most polls are conducted by phone line. If that is true, how accurate are polls. I cited taking a Pew Research poll recently, but they reached to me by mail, plus $2 to participate.
If you Google “GOP has failed America” you will find a lot of articles of former GOP’ers upset with the Republican Party, who by-the-way, has no platform other to impeach ol’ Joe and investigate Hunter’s laptop.
I’ve written this all year: This mid-term will not be like the others.
Most polling firms use a combination of landlines, cell phones and the internet. How accurate are they? Nate Silver has a polling firm rating based on accuracy of their election results. Here:
I check it out every now and then, not so much for the accuracy, but for the lean factor. Nate also list that. I live out in the country; you won’t find any election signs or bumper stickers out here. Politics just isn’t talked about. Here lately it’s been mostly Braves. Since football began, the NFL Falcons and UGA college football has also become a hot topic. Since no one talks politics, it’s hard to tell who votes and who doesn’t unless you see them at the polling place. Since I vote early down at the county register’s office, I won’t see anyone at the polling place come election day.
We’ve never talked about ROE nor about Trump. Gas prices, the cost of food we have. But it’s in a general context, no blame being assessed. Just constant bitching. One of the hot topics is the amount of subdivisions going in. The conversion of farmland into houses and the clear cutting of trees and forests and the conversion of farmland into subdivisions. If we had our way, we’d force all these folks moving out here back into the city of Atlanta or back up north where they came from. Let them go back to their asphalt and concrete, we want to keep our farmland and woods.
You don’t have any outward signs of one’s politics out here, no one wears their politics on their sleeves. Politics takes a backseat to normal everyday activities. Everyone is just living their life the best they can.
Even though C19 is no longer in the news, the US is still averaging 463 deaths a day from C19. 91M deaths in TX and 81M deaths in FL since 2020. That has got to impact voting given the narrow margins of winning now-a-days.
I think you got your numbers wrong. 91 million deaths in Texas and 81 million in Florida. If your numbers were right, there wouldn't be anyone left in Texas or Florida to vote. Just snakes and alligators. Texas has a total population of around 30 million. Everyone living in Texas would have to had died 3 times. I'm positive you didn't mean million, How about 91 thousand and 81 thousand for Florida. New York state has a population of 20 million with 71,000 deaths. New York state had a higher death rate than Texas per capita
Regardless of COVID deaths, those deaths doesn't seem to be harming either Abbot in Texas or DeSantis in Florida.Abbot is polling over 50% and DeSantis is close at 48.8%.
Yes, it's 91K in TX and 81K in FL. Thanks for pointing out my error.
The broader picture is that the US is still experiencing about 463 C19 deaths per day. That's 14K per month - that's a lot of voters across the board.
We have done as much as can reasonably be expected of a nation, but the trouble is, too many don't have enough faith in science and the benevolence of a national society to accept the help offered. ANTI-VAXXERS cannot be reasoned with.
And most of these daily deaths are indeed the unvaccinated.
About 72 to 75 percent of the US adult population are now fully vaccinated, having received at least TWO shots of either the Pfizer vaccine or "dat funky cold Moderna".
That means that almost 83 million people are walking around unvaccinated or at least UNDER-vaccinated. We have endured countless bouts of violence and chaos trying to get through to these people, but they're determined to be walking talking bioweapons labs. And while some of them are old holdovers from the super paranoid anti-establishment left leaning "wellness community" (think Jenny McCarthy) an even larger component consist of our newfound nemesis, the Cult of MAGA, which dwarfs the McCarthy adherents by several orders of magnitude, both in size and funding.
I have now gotten my third booster, this time the new one. I also got the flu shot. I'm heading to Florida (I think) in 3 weeks. We haven't been to WDW in 3 years. A lot has changed since then. I want it to be fun. My wife really needs it. My younger son is even going this time. Who knows when we'll get the chance to go again.
Jeffrey, I too think we as a nation has done everything possible regarding covid. The wife and I have received both the two initial shots and the two boosters. We both still wear masks going to the store. I’d rather err on the side of being safe even if it might be overdoing it. I think not.
And Rick, I think wishing death on voters in Texas and Florida is taking partisanship a bit too far. At least for my blood. Then again, I 've never been a partisan nor affiliated myself with or for either major party. So, I never learned to hate based on party politics, ideology and partisanship.
Jeffrey, I too think we as a nation has done everything possible regarding covid. The wife and I have received both the two initial shots and the two boosters. We both still wear masks going to the store. I’d rather err on the side of being safe even if it might be overdoing it. I think not.
And Rick, I think wishing death on voters in Texas and Florida is taking partisanship a bit too far. At least for my blood. Then again, I 've never been a partisan nor affiliated myself with or for either major party. So, I never learned to hate based on party politics, ideology and partisanship.
It's no longer "party politics, ideology and partisanship" and hasn't been for well over five years, and if I am generous, certainly not since January 6th, 2021. That IS a wound that shall not heal except by a massive stroke of justice that renders insurrectionists and their leadership permanently neutered.
I think it is highly disingenuous to paint a portrait of America in which two groups are merely expressing "political differences" when one group actively attempted to violently overthrow the government and is still attempting to do so as you read this. I would like to regard you as reasonable but the more you butter up the insurrectionists as innocent parties who are "just expressing themselves" the more it looks like you might as well endorse "The Big Lie" openly.
Sorry, I wish the same fate on any and all enemy combatants for one simple reason: The kind of people who would do such a thing at the Capitol are the kinds of people who wouldn't hesitate to shoot ordinary citizens on the street.
Jeffrey, I too think we as a nation has done everything possible regarding covid. The wife and I have received both the two initial shots and the two boosters. We both still wear masks going to the store. I’d rather err on the side of being safe even if it might be overdoing it. I think not.
And Rick, I think wishing death on voters in Texas and Florida is taking partisanship a bit too far. At least for my blood. Then again, I 've never been a partisan nor affiliated myself with or for either major party. So, I never learned to hate based on party politics, ideology and partisanship.
It's no longer "party politics, ideology and partisanship" and hasn't been for well over five years, and if I am generous, certainly not since January 6th, 2021. That IS a wound that shall not heal except by a massive stroke of justice that renders insurrectionists and their leadership permanently neutered.
I think it is highly disingenuous to paint a portrait of America in which two groups are merely expressing "political differences" when one group actively attempted to violently overthrow the government and is still attempting to do so as you read this. I would like to regard you as reasonable but the more you butter up the insurrectionists as innocent parties who are "just expressing themselves" the more it looks like you might as well endorse "The Big Lie" openly.
Sorry, I wish the same fate on any and all enemy combatants for one simple reason: The kind of people who would do such a thing at the Capitol are the kinds of people who wouldn't hesitate to shoot ordinary citizens on the street.
After all, their hero inspired them by saying HE could do it and not lose any votes. It all should have been brought to a screeching halt right then and there...if we were still a normal republic.
And Rick, I think wishing death on voters in Texas and Florida is taking partisanship a bit too far. At least for my blood. Then again, I 've never been a partisan nor affiliated myself with or for either major party. So, I never learned to hate based on party politics, ideology and partisanship.
????
Please show where I have done that. That is a very appalling accusation.
Time and time again Rick, you refer to deaths by COVID as decreasing the number of voters who’ll vote Republican. Done or written in a way that at the very least implies you’re happy with the deaths form COVID in certain states so there’ll be less Republican voters.
Maybe wish was too harsh of word, I didn’t give that word much thought when I did use it. You certainly seem to be happy with the thought these COVID deaths will help the Democrats win elections as there apt to be less GOP voters. This implication has come across in many of your postings for a very long time. Numbers wise, you may be correct or maybe not. You’re not one to use numbers to back up most of your postings. Mostly emotion which is fine.
After a while posting about COVID deaths in the context as diminishing the voting strength of the GOP, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that the way you’ve used this, it’s exactly like wanting your favorite football team trying to injure the opposing team’s quarterback knocking him out of the game so your team will have a better chance of winning. That’s finally how I came to view your posts about COVID deaths will result in less GOP voters there will be. Am I wrong?
Anyway, take this for what it’s worth, there are times when phrasing something can lead to big misunderstandings or imply something that certainly wasn’t the intent. That’s happened to me before. But going back through some of your posts on COVID deaths leaving less Republican voters, the implication is there that they are benefiting the democrats and since they may be benefiting the democrats, you’re fine with it.
Some folks even consider Republicans to be "enemy combatants" As though the war was already on and the shooting had begun..
A lot of Floridians won't be able to vote this year. Because they lost their homes, and their livelihoods, some died in the storm. Many will be homeless, their lives destroyed.
Democrats have every reason to be gleeful and to celebrate that Republican lives destroyed might slightly outweigh the lives of democrats destroyed.
And that Val Demings might receive a few hundred more votes. And still lose the election.
And as joyful as Democrats are that Covid is now taking more Republican lives than Democratic lives, they need to weigh carefully the number of Democratic lives lost earlier in the pandemic when death tolls were much higher and vaccinations didn't exist yet.
If you hope to win this election across the board you need to arm yourselves and take the fight to the streets, killing as many as possible and getting your friends to kill as many as possible. If you kill enough of them then Democracy shall reign forever and anyone who disagrees with you will be killed.
Time and time again Rick, you refer to deaths by COVID as decreasing the number of voters who’ll vote Republican. .
I don't make up those numbers. Those numbers are facts. My use of those numbers are simply to point out that there will be fewer voters in November 2022. THAT too is a fact.
Those fewer voters WILL impact election results is my argument.
I suppose those choosing not to arm themselves against a worldwide pandemic is the same thinking and rational that lead them to choose not to purchase flood insurance.
Clearly, their inability to take facts and reason with them and come to a sane, rational conclusion, is a problem. If they're making poor choices for themselves in their own lives, then they're making poor choices for their neighbors when they vote. You can't separate the two.
I suppose those choosing not to arm themselves against a worldwide pandemic is the same thinking and rational that lead them to choose not to purchase flood insurance.
I don't suppose you have any idea what flood insurance costs do you? Many of those same people are retirees living on fixed incomes...they can't afford it.
Many lived in rental properties whose landlords neither have nor are required to carry flood insurance. It's a luxury reserved mostly for those who can afford not to have flood insurance.
I lived in a flood zone for 44 years...I could never consider flood insurance simply because it was too expensive. The last 20 years there I didn't even have homeowners insurance for the same reason. Property insurance is expensive here because we have hurricanes. I couldn't even afford to remove the trees near my house so I could qualify for homeowners insurance.
If you don't have a mortgage you don't even need home insurance. And flood insurance is completely optional. If it hasn't flooded in your area for 500 years it makes little sense to do without food so you can pay for insurance you probably will never need.
Time and time again Rick, you refer to deaths by COVID as decreasing the number of voters who’ll vote Republican. .
I don't make up those numbers. Those numbers are facts. My use of those numbers are simply to point out that there will be fewer voters in November 2022. THAT too is a fact.
Those fewer voters WILL impact election results is my argument.
Okay, I’ll buy that. But stress the fewer voter, not just Republican voters. But I’m not sure there’ll be fewer voters. The number of voters this midterm will most likely be more than the 2018 midterm which were more than the 2014 midterm, etc. Now the percent of the total eligible voters who turnout to vote may be less than 2018 as the percentage for that election was very high. In 2018, the turnout percentage was 50% of eligible voters. Way higher than the 40% historical average for a midterm. In fact, the 50% turnout for the 2018 midterm was a record high historically. We’ve had presidential elections that had lower voter turnout than that. 49% turnout in 1996 for example. In 2014 the turnout was 38%.
As I pointed out in earlier posts, first time voter registration of people who normally sit-out is up and it’s woman 2:1. And, as I also keep pointing out, this year’s mid-terms will be unlike any other and I predict, based on what I am reading, will be record-setting just as 2020 records a were broken.
As everyone knows, when record-setting voting occurs - that favors the Democrats.
I suppose those choosing not to arm themselves against a worldwide pandemic is the same thinking and rational that lead them to choose not to purchase flood insurance.
I don't suppose you have any idea what flood insurance costs do you? Many of those same people are retirees living on fixed incomes...they can't afford it.
I do. Flood insurance is about $4300/year. That is a lot of money.
Then (1) don’t purchase property there, and/or (2) don’t keep voting for politicians who insinuate their political opposition with NAZI Germany simply because NAZIs used the term “socialist” in their name incorrectly ( NAZIs where fascists, not socialists) and then ask for some of that sweet government relief money - which is socialism. If you don't like socialism - don't like socialism all the way - not when its convenient for you at the voting booth.
The 62% who turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential was the highest since 1960 when 63% turned out. You must go all the way back to 1908 when 66% turned out to vote to beat 1960 63%. Going back through my records, the 50% is not an historical high for a midterm, in 1910 51% turned out for that year’s midterm. In the 1800’s an 80% turnout in presidential elections was common as was a 65% for the midterms. But many people weren’t eligible to vote back then.
Just keep in mind being registered to vote and actually voting is two different things. Which leads us back to voter turnout. Which for the most part is impossible to predict as to who turns out along with their voting habits. This year generic congressional ballot shows the Democrats with a 4 point lead among registered voters, but the Republicans are ahead in likely voters by a single point. Big difference in likely voters and registered voters. History shows 85% of those who say they're likely voters will go vote. Only 67% of registered voters do go vote.
Suburban voters who Republicans thought were anti-Trump, are just now coming to realize they’re anti-Republican…A lot of rural voters are religious conservatively and they were very mobilized by abortion and now they think they’ve won.
Rick, if the GOP retakes the House I’m sure there will be three things they’ll do right quick. One - They’ll impeach Biden only because the Democrats impeached Trump twice. Two - McCarthy will deny a few certain democrats any committee assignment in payback for Pelosi denying his committee choices on the 1-6 committee. Three – The house will use their investigative powers to open a 1-6 type investigation on Hunter Biden. In other words, a GOP controlled house will be more concerned with political payback than anything else.
The Republicans know that any legislation a Republican controlled house passes won’t see the light of day in a likely Democratic controlled senate or with a Democratic President. As for voter enthusiasm – it’s pretty even. To the question and question number 62. Enthusiasm about Voting in 2022 - Compared to voting in previous Congressional election years, are you more or less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s election? You have 36% of the Urban population more enthused, 37 Suburb, 39 rural. Then the party breakdown, 43% of democrats are more enthusiastic about voting in this year’s midterm, 47% of republicans with only 24% of independents stating they’re more enthusiastic. Basically, a wash. But a wash is good news for the Democrats. History has shown the party out of power is much more enthusiastic about voting in a midterm than the party in power.
Two - McCarthy will deny a few certain democrats any committee assignment in payback for Pelosi denying his committee choices on the 1-6 committee.
She did offer them spots, they refused because she rejected TWO of their choices, so they walked out en masse. Pelosi did not deny them spots on the committee, she specifically rejected TWO of their choices and for damn good reason.
This is good for the Laugh of the Day. But come to think of it, one doesn’t have to be a member of the House to be selected Speaker. Like one doesn’t have to be a lawyer to sit on the SCOTUS. That makes Speaker Trump highly improbable, but possible.
Rejected, denied, same meaning. I’ve been told that this was the first time a Speaker denied, rejected any of the minority leaders’ choices to be on a committee. I researched it, googled it, but couldn’t get an answer. No matter how I worded it, the rejection of Banks and Jordon is all that came up. The results were inclusive for this being the first time a Speaker, any Speaker rejected any minority leader’s choice for a committee assignment. Its possible Pelosi’s rejection was the first and precedence setting, or it may not be. I’ve come to rely on google too much.
This is good for the Laugh of the Day. But come to think of it, one doesn’t have to be a member of the House to be selected Speaker. Like one doesn’t have to be a lawyer to sit on the SCOTUS. That makes Speaker Trump highly improbable, but possible.
Rejected, denied, same meaning. I’ve been told that this was the first time a Speaker denied, rejected any of the minority leaders’ choices to be on a committee. I researched it, googled it, but couldn’t get an answer. No matter how I worded it, the rejection of Banks and Jordon is all that came up. The results were inclusive for this being the first time a Speaker, any Speaker rejected any minority leader’s choice for a committee assignment. Its possible Pelosi’s rejection was the first and precedence setting, or it may not be. I’ve come to rely on google too much.
?? Is this another way of saying "It can't happen here" ??
There’s an old saying Jeffrey, Never say Never. Trump becoming Speaker has about as much chance of me winning both the Mega Millions and the Big game twice within the same week. It’s possible, but the probability factor is close to nil.
There’s an old saying Jeffrey, Never say Never. Trump becoming Speaker has about as much chance of me winning both the Mega Millions and the Big game twice within the same week. It’s possible, but the probability factor is close to nil.
Republicans are so out of their minds these days that making Trump the SOH is not so far fetched as it seems. Trump would relish the attention, plus he'd be paid. Trump needs the money - he hasn't paid his lawyers - or haven't you heard?
Herschel Walker, the football legend now running for Senate in Georgia, says he wants to completely ban abortion, likening it to murder and claiming there should be “no exception” for rape, incest, or the life of the mother.
But the Republican candidate has supported at least one exception—for himself.
A woman who asked not to be identified out of privacy concerns told The Daily Beast that, after she and Walker conceived a child while they were dating in 2009, he urged her to get an abortion. The woman said she had the procedure and that Walker reimbursed her for it.
She supported these claims with a $575 receipt from the abortion clinic, a “get well” card from Walker, and a bank deposit receipt that included an image of a signed $700 personal check from Walker.
Here’s what I do with events that may affect elections. I write down the date, check how the election or that race stands today, then check how the candidates stand in a week, then two weeks and a month after to see if the event had an affect or not. Today, this how Georgia’s senate race stands.
I’ve always had Warnock winning. I always expected Warnock to increase his lead as election day gets closer. Walker was probably the worst candidate the Republicans could have nominated to go against Warnock. But Trump endorsed and chosen, he won his primary over more qualified and much better candidates suited to win a general election. Walker is a very poor general election candidate. He won’t win. Look at the Georgia governor’s race to tell the difference between a good quality candidate which is also better suited for the general election when all folks vote, not just Republicans.
The big reason is Warnock and Kemp are doing good among independent voters. Walker and Abrams aren’t. There’ll be a lot of split ticket voting among independents. Another reason is senate races are more about national issues whereas governor races are about local issues. National issues do not have the same ring or importance in governor races since governor races are all about things going on within the state and state issues. Hence you can have Republicans winning the governorship of Massachusetts and Maryland and a Democrat winning the governorship of Kansas, while no Republican running in Massachusetts and Maryland and a democrat in Kansas has a chance of winning a senate seat or the presidential election.
Research by Mehmet Oz between 1980 and 2010 at Colombia University killed and inflicted significant suffering on over 329 dogs. This makes Mitt Romney’s revelation that he strapped his dog’s kennel to the roof of his car for a family vacation makes Romney look like a PETA activist writes Jezebel, an online magazine.
These experiments which Oz took full responsibility for, violated the Animal Welfare Act.
Today dogs, rabbits, and pigs, tomorrow forcing 12-year olds into pregnancies by their cousins - as long as they’re “more than first cousins” states Oz.
5 Oct 2022 - Changes in the house over the last week. The number of competitive, at risk, switchable seats for the Democrats fell to 42, their safe seats rose from 178 to 180. Republican at risk seats rose from 16 to 18 while their safe seats dropped from 197 down to 195.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 60 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 42 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Safe seats, 180 Democratic, 195 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 11-13 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 224-211 to 226-209.
This is the district by district figures. Not the national generic congressional ballot which I’ll address later as the national numbers are going the opposite direction. District by district the trend is democratic, nationally, the trend has shifted back toward the Republicans.
Here’s something that has always interested me. The want of a viable third party to challenge the democratic and republican parties. I’ve always been in the forefront of this, at times working hard to establish a viable third party. Failed though. Although the percentage of all Americans has dropped some from 2021, you still have only 40% of all Americans who think the two major parties do a good job of representing American People, 56% say they don’t, that we need a viable third party. This includes 75% of independents. Which is not surprising as independents or those who identify themselves as independents has risen from 30% of the electorate in 2006 up to 43% today as the major parties have shrunk. I’ve concluded a viable third party isn’t going to happen in our two-party system regardless of how fed up people become with our two major parties. They have a monopoly on our electoral system, and they’ll keep it regardless of how small they become as a percentage of all Americans in members or those who identify or affiliate with them. The bottom line is no matter how much the two major parties come to hate each other, even try to destroy each other, they do agree on one major thing, no viable third party will ever rise. Since Republicans and Democrats write our election laws, they write them as a mutual protection act. There are many other reasons, financial, media coverage, many more. But here if anyone is interested.
Public Interest in Having a Third Major Party Dips to 56%
And some polls are outliers. Warnock is going to win. But it's not going to be by 12 points.
If I were going to take a guess about the final outcome I'd say maybe 2 percentage points tops. Might be tighter than that. Rs will vote for Rs no matter what...Independents will win the seat for Democrats.
Regarding viable third parties...we need two more. A progressive party for the lefties among us, and a conservative party for the extremists on that side,
Trouble is that most Americans are pretty moderate whether they lean liberal or conservative.
None want the higher taxes required for a leftist government and none want the heavy restrictions that come with a more authoritarian regime.
So even if we had two more viable parties, they wouldn't win many elections.
If we added a single "moderate" party it wouldn't get much interest because we've already got two moderate parties.
I’d say with 5 polls somewhere between a tie and a 4 point lead for Warnock, the 12 point lead poll is an outlier. Interesting to note that the two latest polls, 4 October, FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage and the WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA, one had Warnock up by 12 and the other by only 3. I always like averaging polls as I think averaging give us a truer accuracy.
For your information, Insider Advantage has a lean toward the Democrats while Survey USA has no leans.
I'm not so sure RCP can be trusted. If you click "Latest News" on their website, every single article is right-leaning and supports the Rwing agenda. Every cognizant individual knows that the Rwing agenda is a march to Fascism.
I'm not so sure RCP can be trusted. If you click "Latest News" on their website, every single article is right-leaning and supports the Rwing agenda. Every cognizant individual knows that the Rwing agenda is a march to Fascism.
I hope America is a better country than that.
"Can't be trusted" might be a bit much however after glancing at it this morning I do indeed see a total domination of Fox News Channel on RCP's banner headlines.
So RCP apparently favors the political Right "more than a little bit." They're kind of like the Rasmussen of Rasmussens.
No big thing Rick, Jeffrey. I realize polls are but an indicator of what likely will happen. Not what will. The voters in November have the final say. Besides, polls are dynamic, they go up and go down. But here a site that list 10 different pundits, forecasts, prognosticators in which 9 out of 10 list Georgia as tossup. In other words, neither Walker nor Warnock has an advantage.
Nate is giving Warnock a 50.2 to 48.2 over Walker with Warnock having a 59% chance of winning. RCP has Warnock over Walker 48.0 to 44.2. RCP doesn’t give a percent chance on winning or losing. Nate was the only pundit, forecaster I know of that gave Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016. No other forecaster gave Trump a chance at all.
Greger, Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver will probably help Warnock out along with independents which today are backing Warnock by a around 46-36 depending on the poll. Most of Oliver’s support are coming from Independents, 6% and Republicans 4% with Democrats adding a single point. If these numbers hold, I’d expect Warnock to win by 5 plus points and avoid a runoff. RCP averages gives Warnock a 3.8-point lead which I don’t think will shrink. I sure it will only grow.
Oliver’s support from Republican may grow beyond the current 4%. Oliver gives the anti-Trump, conservative Republicans someone to vote for without having to pull the lever for the liberal Warnock. Keep in mind, Georgia has a runoff system, if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff 3 weeks after the general election. A runoff is possible. It was in a runoff that both Democrats Ossoff and Warnock won their senate seats.
I didn’t know anything about Walkers past. But when Walker won the GOP primary over Charlie Black who would have been a good general election candidate, it was their choice of making a statement instead of winning in November. Of course, Georgia wasn’t the only state where the GOP went with making a statement instead of nominating a candidate with a good chance of winning the general election.
By the time this senate election is over, Walker may wish he never let Trump talk him into running. Walker just moved to Georgia in August I believe. Before that he lived in Texas. Walker is a very poor speaker, at times makes no sense besides all this stuff coming out about him. I think if the Republican Party wanted to win in November, they wouldn’t have gone with Walker, Oz or Masters. Kowtowing to Trump probably cost the Republicans all three of those senate races. I’m not going into the governor races, but there’s some there where making a statement overrode winning in November.
It boils down to what I’ve said many times, Trump is the biggest asset the Democrats having going for them this midterm.
When Republicans campaign for Democratic candidates it's no longer about "going Dem". It's about avoiding the catastrophe of putting the Trump Party back in power again. Never mind conservatives, most of the real ones either left the GOP already or were booted out via primary if they hold office. And by November 9th, there won't be a SINGLE traditional conservative Republican in Congress anymore.
It's just like Biden's election...Democrats OWE regular Republicans for the help they gave. The midterms will likely be another possibly FINAL repudiation of Trumpism.
Jeffrey, it wasn’t regular Republicans that gave the election in 2020 to Biden, it was independents. 94% of Republicans voted for Trump vs. 6% for Biden. Democrats were the same, 94-5 Biden over Trump. Independents who had voted for Trump in 2016 by a 46-42 margin with 12% voting third party against both major party candidates went heavily for Biden in 2020, 54-41 with 5% voting third party.
That’s a swing of 17 points, from a plus 4 to a minus 13 for Trump among independents. Plus, Biden winning the anti-voters. Those voters who only vote against a candidate, but not for any candidate. Any name on the ballot other then the candidate they’re voting against would do quite nicely. Trump won these anti-voters who only vote against a candidate 53-42 over Clinton in 2016. Biden won them 68-30 over Trump in 2020. Mind you this group of voters weren’t voting for Biden in 2020, just against Trump. Atilla the Hun would have worked just as well instead of Biden for this group. This group of voters made up 24% of all those who voted in 2020. Those who voted for a candidate because they wanted their candidate to win, not just against a candidate, Trump won those voting for voters 53-46. Just be thankful for the anti-voters. Independents and anti-voters gave Biden the presidency, not regular republican voters.
Today, 94% of Republicans say they’ll vote for Republican congressional candidates vs. 3% for Democratic congressional candidates. Among Democrats it’s 91-4 voting for Democratic congressional candidates over Republican congressional candidates.
My advice, if I were a Democratic political strategist, I’d ignore Republicans. You’re not going to get them to vote Democratic. I’d concentrate on winning independents, it’s independents who decide elections. It isn’t either major party’s base. Independents gave Biden the presidency, independents gave the democrat the house and senate in 2018, independents gave Trump the presidency in 2016, they gave the GOP the senate in 2014 and helped reelect Obama in 2012 and in 2010, by a huge 56-37 margin voting for Republican congressional candidates, independents gave the Republicans 63 house seat gain in 2010 and so on, on back.
The inflation rate in 1972 was 3.21%. Nixon won in a landslide more because of McGovern and his weird policies than what the inflation rate was. In 1980 when Reagan beat Carter the inflation rate was 7.59%, in 1984 Reagan had lowered it or it lowered itself depending on whether you want to place credit and blame on the president to 3.21%.
Jeffrey, it wasn’t regular Republicans that gave the election in 2020 to Biden, it was independents. 94% of Republicans voted for Trump vs. 6% for Biden.
I think you may be missing the point a little bit. Yes, you're right, ninety-four percent of Republicans IN 2020 voted for Trump, absolutely. And that is BECAUSE in the last few years, the Republican Party has become The Trump Party.
Those independents you keep talking about? In the last few years there's been an exit in the GOP because the party booted lawmakers out and a fairly good number of former Republicans BECAME independents. Those "former Republicans" ARE what USED to BE the regular conservative Republicans prior to the party becoming Trump's cult.
The Lincoln Project isn't a bunch of independents, anarchists and libertarians...they are former GOP LEADERS and the voters that helped put them in office. Steve Schmidt worked for Dubya and for Arnold Schwarzenegger. John Weaver was a McCain guy. Rick Wilson worked for George H. W. Bush. Stuart Stevens worked for Mitt Romney.
The Getty Family, Christy Walton of Walmart Corp, are these people leftist commies? No, they're FORMER Republicans. And that's my point when I say that Biden owes a fair number of regular conservative Republicans for his win, in ADDITION TO his regular Democratic voters. My point is, the Republican Party of today is so infected with cult behavior that ignores the future of the country that a tidal wave of voters, strategists and lawmakers EXITED today's GOP and they bumped membership IN the independent sector significantly.
But they are not "lifelong independents"...they became independents when their former party refused to recognize them anymore. It is the Republican Party that changed, not these people.
If one takes a good look for the last 2 years, the GOP has been around 26-28% while the Democrats 27-29 on average with a bunch of ups and down past those numbers. The thing is both major parties are close to each other in party affiliation. It isn’t like it was in the past with the Democrats having a huge edge.
I wouldn't bet much on former Republicans voting for Democrats. Those folks above will not vote for Donald Trump again and will spend their money supporting GOP candidates more to their liking.
But like the covid deaths, I imagine those numbers will be insignificant in the greater scheme of things.
A lot of Republicans might abstain if Donald Trump made it onto the ballot. But most voters just go to the polls and vote a straight ticket for whichever party they identify with.
Whichever party their dad voted for...or against that party in many cases. Without having to think too hard about it.
I kind of get the feeling that Republicans aren't very fired up about this election. Primary voters and the Trumpy crowd might be fired up over perceived wrongs to them in the post-presidential persecution of their former golden boy.
But, having said that... the potential for an increased number of Republican-leaning couch sitters certainly exists. The less interested voters who might get off the couch if an issue or a candidate inspired them...or might just sit it out over the embarrassment caused by Trump and his cronies...
Elections are all about turnout. And turnout cannot be predicted.
Because you never know who's gonna get up and vote and who's gonna sit on the couch.
All the regulars will be there of course but it's the irregulars that win and lose elections. Everything is looking pretty rosy for the Dems outside of the inflation thing.
Not rosy enough to retain control of the House though. `
I’d say you hit the nail right on the head, Greger. We think alike there. Turnout is always the key; I agree there’s no way to accurately predict that. Now for those Republicans dissatisfied with a Trump chosen candidate, there is another option than voting for the Democrat. It’s third party. I noticed going over some polls for Georgia the in the Kemp-Abrams race, only 2% of Republicans say they’ll vote third party. But in the Walker-Warnock race, 8% of Republicans are saying they’ll vote third party. It’s a way for Republicans of not voting for a Trump supported, endorsed candidate and yet not voting for the Democrat. Which is fine as they can vote for Kemp for governor and then for Libertarian Chase Oliver for Senator and not vote for any democrat at all.
The reason Laxalt has taken the lead is that he’s doing much better among Hispanics. Cortez-Masto won the Hispanic vote when she last ran in 2016 by 35 points, this time she’s winning them by 18.
Here’s Pennsylvania. Oz over the last couple of weeks has cut an 8-point lead by Fetterman down to a bit less than 4. Some prognosticators have moved Pennsylvania back from lean Democratic to tossup.
If one is watching trends or momentum, the trend was all Republican from January through July. Then around the first party of August the trend or momentum shifted to the Democrats which they took the lead in the generic congressional ballot for the fist time this year along with looking at gaining 1-2 senate seats. Then the momentum or trend shifted back to the Republican at the end of September where now the GOP has retaken the lead in the generic congressional ballot, Fetterman has lost half of his once 8-point lead and in Nevada, Laxalt has taken the lead over Cortez Masto. Although a small lead. But before one gets excited, remember there is the margin of error in all these polls. Usually plus or minus 3 points.
One other trend if I may, along the border states, the southwest which includes Nevada, Hispanics are slowly trending to voting more Republican than the national average. You seen this in Texas where Trump won 41% of the Hispanic vote along with a Republican winning a special election for congress along the border a couple of months ago. A district that is 80% Hispanic, this is why this one special election stands out. But this trend of Hispanics voting more and more Republican is confined to Texas and the southwest. So far. The shift in Hispanics is a reason in Arizona Trumper Lake is tied with Hobbs for the governorship.
Is Moore right that there will be a tsunami of voters determined to defeat the enemies of democracy? The only way to learn the answer is to stop trying to read the tea leaves and focus on making it happen.
Moore is trying to use his celebrity to influence turnout.
A tsunami is generally a wave of sorts, so he's predicting a blue wave where the facts on the ground indicate none. And telling us to ignore the facts on the ground and what we see with our own eyes in favor of his own vision of an unlikely future...gaslighting us in other words.
The only way to learn the answer is to wait until the results are in. Polls are showing a tightening for Republicans in most races rather than the opposite. Tea leaves are showing pretty much the same thing.
I'm gonna hafta call Moore's prediction an outlier and his optimism ridiculous. Did he ever get the water in Flint fixed? Or anywhere else? Don't get me wrong, I love the guy and I love his work...but all he can do is call attention to the problems.
Is Moore right that there will be a tsunami of voters determined to defeat the enemies of democracy? The only way to learn the answer is to stop trying to read the tea leaves and focus on making it happen.
Moore is trying to use his celebrity to influence turnout..
So Moore used his celebrity to influence turnout for Trump in 2016? Because Moore DID correctly predict Trump’s win.
Below is the list of most important issues for the midterms. Issues on which voters decide who to vote for. I still find it strange that inflation and the economy aren’t combined. Question 60 Inflation/prices 24% Jobs and the economy 11% Health care 10% Abortion 9% Climate change and the environment 8% National Security 6% Immigration 6% Civil rights 5% Taxes and government spending 5% Education 4% Guns 4% Crime 4% Civil liberties 2% Criminal justice reform 1% Foreign policy 1%
The fact is you won’t have any wave election or tsunami, regardless of color. We’re talking, at least as of today a very close election. The house, a probable net gain for the Republicans is 11-13 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 224-211 to 226-209. In the senate, today only two states seem likely to change hands, PA goes Democratic, NV may go Republican, if so, another 50-50 tie. GA, AZ stays Democratic, WI and NC stays Republican. Outside of those 6 states I listed, there is no other drama in the senate races. Of course, we still have a bit less than a month prior to the election, things can change. But now the momentum seems to have shift slightly toward the Republicans. If that continues, which no one knows it will. I’d look for the GOP to gain a couple of more seats than the 13 I have them at now. But the senate seems out of reach for the Republicans. Not with Walker in GA or Masters in AZ.
I'm holding steady at a loss of 15 House seats and a pickup of 2 in the Senate.
With the margin of error firmly set at two. I'd like to see a pickup in the Senate, I have no idea how it might become a reality. I'd like to see that 15 whittled down to 12 too.
Biden has finally given the signal he's ready to talk about marijuana reform. That will get some folks off the couch. It's a very motivating issue and one not often talked about.
Below is the list of most important issues for the midterms. Issues on which voters decide who to vote for. I still find it strange that inflation and the economy aren’t combined. Question 60
Inflation/prices 24% Jobs and the economy 11% Health care 10% Abortion 9% Climate change and the environment 8% National Security 6% Immigration 6% ... .
So what's the GOP's plan to curb inflation. Sitting around with their thumb up theirs asses, and forming a committee to investigate "Hunter's laptop" is not a good answer.
The GOP has very few actual plans or proposals, other than regaining power to block everything Democrats propose. Inflation is driven by companies raising prices, which is fine with Republicans. Unemployment is lower than it was under Trump, though Republicans feel free just to make up unsupported numbers at their rallies, (AKA lies). Democrats gave us all access to health care coverage, and then Republican governors refused to accept federal dollars to fix the Medicaid/ACA gap. Republicans definitely gave us a Supreme Court that has gone against the 70% of us who liked Roe. Biden is the first President who has done some things about climate change. In terms of National security, Trump was the first president to ally himself with Putin. Republican policy on immigration has been a disaster under Republicans: Child separation, kids in cages being molested by their guards, asylum seekers kidnapped by DeSantis, etc.
Seems like every issue "voters care about" is basically Republicans causing problems, and Democrats trying to fix them.
For the Democrats to gain 2 seats, I’d say they must pick up PA and WI while keeping all their senate seats.NC is another possible gain for the democrats. The problem is only PA is trending Democratic today. Then there is NV which is trending Republican. The likely outcome is a 50-50 split, but there still plenty of time for that to change. I think the Democrats probably will hold onto NV. Incumbency is a hard role to beat. Interesting, Nate Sliver gives the democrats a 66% chance of retaining the senate. Now that percentage includes a 50-50 tie. Now that’s down from 71% back on 19 Sep.
So Moore used his celebrity to influence turnout for Trump in 2016? Because Moore DID correctly predict Trump’s win.
He wasn't actively going on talk shows and asking you to gather your friends and vote for Trump was he? That's his schtick right now...using his celebrity to drum up votes that just arent there.
Could it be the results of this midterm election is directly tied to the price of a gallon of gas? I have said as much in earlier posts. The Republicans had a 2.6-point lead in the generic congressional ballot back in June with gas prices above 5 dollars. Then the price started to fall, and momentum shifted from Republican to the Democrats. In mid-September the price of a gallon of gas hit a low of 3.77 a gallon. The same time the Democrats had taken a 1.3 lead in the generic congressional ballot. Then the average price of a gallon of gas began to rise once more. It is now above 4 dollars at 4.03 a gallon. It also seems the momentum has shifted back to the republicans as they now have an 0.7-point lead in the generic congressional ballot.
Could it really be this simple? Or is it a coincidence? Republicans are going to vote for republicans, Democrats for Democrats, that’s a no brainier. It’s independents that decide these elections. They’re not political junkies and pay very little if any attention to politics until an election nears. Interesting to note that back in the June/July time frame independents were stating they’d vote Republican in the generic congressional ballot by a 45-35 margin. That narrowed in September to 42-39. Today independents are back up to a 43-35 margin for the Republicans.
Also, of interest in the senate, Fetterman’s lead in PA has shrunk from 9 points down to 4, while in NV, Laxalt has overtaken Cortez Masto. According to Nate Silver, 538, the odds or chances on the GOP gaining control of the senate has increased from 29% in September up to 35% today. Republicans taking control of the House has risen from 68% in September up t 71% today.
Is the price of a gallon of gas going to be the determining factor on how this year’s midterm elections turn out? An interesting correlation seems to have happened.
Could it be the results of this midterm election is directly tied to the price of a gallon of gas?
Could it be that corporations try to influence elections by manipulating prices?
Or is it that the great and diabolical TRUMP controls fuel prices worldwide and is using his superpowers to adjust prices and deliver a win for his chosen candidates?
Like in all things, conspiracy theories abound. Perhaps the followers of both major parties think they’re free agents, when they’re being moved around like pawns on the political chessboard. Corporations, lobbyist, special interests, mega, ultra-moneyed individual donors etc. donate tens of millions of dollars to both parties and their candidates. Most corporations, wall street firms donate to both political parties based on who has the best chance of winning. These moneyed elites want our elected official to owe them.
The 2020 election cost 14 billion dollars, Democratic candidates and groups have spent $6.9 billion, compared to $3.8 billion for Republicans.
So where are both parties coming up with billions? It sure isn’t small campaign donors. No, we’re just a necessary evil to be moved around by the moneyed elites as they buy our elected officials.
That's only Republicans, Pero. Democrats get by just spending pennies and they never take corporate donations. John Fetterman says his average donation is only $5.28 and if I'd rush that amount to his campaign he'd be able to defeat the wealthy TRUMP backed Turkish Allah-loving fraud.
That's only Republicans, Pero. Democrats get by just spending pennies and they never take corporate donations. John Fetterman says his average donation is only $5.28 and if I'd rush that amount to his campaign he'd be able to defeat the wealthy TRUMP backed Turkish Allah-loving fraud.
Any evidence to the contrary is fake news.
Sarcasm noted.
Senator Owen Brewster: Now, is it possible that these could be considered bribes?
Howard Hughes: I suppose you could call them that, yes.
Senator Owen Brewster: Would you repeat that?
Howard Hughes: I said, I suppose you could consider them bribes, yes.
Senator Owen Brewster: Well, would you like to explain that, Mr. Hughes?
Howard Hughes: I'm afraid you don't know how the aviation business works, senator. See, wining and dining Air Force dignitaries is common in our business. It's because we all want the big contracts. All the major aircraft companies do it. I don't know whether it's a good system, I just know it's not illegal. You, senator, you are the lawmaker. If you pass a law that states no one can entertain Air Force officers, well, hell l'd be happy to abide by it.
YOU CAN SKIP TO 4:18 in the clip for the good part if you like.
Brewster accused Utterback and the Democratic Party of throwing the vote in certain predominantly Franco-American (i.e. Catholic-majority) towns in Aroostook County, and took that accusation first to state authorities and then to the U.S. Congress itself, where he tried to prevent Utterback from being seated.
WHAT A SURPRISE!!! A Republican doing in 1932 what ALL Republicans in Congress are now doing en masse today!
LOL, yeah Greger. I got you. There ought to be a way to fix this. But since the SCOTUS ruled money is speech, there isn’t. Here’s the most expensive senate races. You can click on the state to see the break down.
Using my home state, Georgia, Warnock has raised 60 million to Walkers 20 million. Then you have to add spending by outside groups not affiliate with either party or candidate, ha, ha, yeah. That’s another 46 million benefitting Warnock and 42 million benefitting Walker. That’s 170 million for one senate seat. But compared to the senate runoff elections in January 2021, 170 million is peanuts.
I’ve been supporting a law that would basically say if you can’t vote for a candidate, you can’t donate to that candidate or his campaign. Talk about hitting a brick wall. This has been a hot issue for me ever since the Georgia runoff elections in 2021 when 90% of all money spent on those two runoffs came from out of state. The moneyed folks from out of state own Georgia’s two senators as far as I’m concerned.
Like in all things, conspiracy theories abound. Perhaps the followers of both major parties think they’re free agents, when they’re being moved around like pawns on the political chessboard. Corporations, lobbyist, special interests, mega, ultra-moneyed individual donors etc. donate tens of millions of dollars to both parties and their candidates. Most corporations, wall street firms donate to both political parties based on who has the best chance of winning. These moneyed elites want our elected official to owe them.
...
So where are both parties coming up with billions? It sure isn’t small campaign donors. No, we’re just a necessary evil to be moved around by the moneyed elites as they buy our elected officials.
The 2010 John Roberts SCOTUS pro-dark money decision Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, THE controversial decision that reversed a century-old campaign finance restriction and enabled corporations and other outside groups to spend unlimited funds on elections...because money is "free speech."
Which means some people have a bigger megaphone than others because they have more "free speech" to spend on their message.
I’ve been supporting a law that would basically say if you can’t vote for a candidate, you can’t donate to that candidate or his campaign.
In essence, I agree. but there are a lot more masses to reach these days and reaching them has become more and more expensive.
When, for one reason or another, you want to donate to a candidate, like your brother-in-law in Podunk. I see no reason it should be written into law that you can't.
When a campaign becomes "of national interest" and I want to send some money to your brother-in-law in Podunk, I still don't see any reason to legislate otherwise.
The real dark money has always been there. Envelopes filled with cash...briefcases...SCOTUS just admitted it existed, and at least made it trackable to some extent.
Speaking of money, if you look at the graph, scroll down a bit, 1960-2016 you’ll see in very presidential election except two, the candidate with the most money to spend won. The exceptions were 1964 and 2016.
I understand your point of view Greger. It was just the 2021 Georgia senate runoffs that 90% of all money raised came from out of state. It’s like I said, Georgia’s two senators don’t belong to Georgian’s, they belong to all those out of state non-Georgians who sent them close to a billion dollars. They don’t represent Georgians, they represent those out of staters.
As for money, if you research it, the party with the most incumbents, the party in power usually ends up with the most money. If the Democrats are the party in power and have the most incumbents, they’ll get the most money and vice versa with Republicans. The exception is wave elections where people are angry at the party in power, that situation, money alone can’t save the party in power. Donors know this, so they’ll donate their billions to the party out of power knowing the party out of power is going to win. Still, most huge donors will donate to both parties, that way regardless of who wins, the winner is going to owe them.
Examples Energy in 2020 63% of their donations went to Trump, 37% to Biden, Wall street, finance 73% to Biden, 27% to trump, Lawyers and Lobbyists, 91% to Biden, 9% to Trump. You can see the sector totals here.
WHAT A SURPRISE!!! A Republican doing in 1932 what ALL Republicans in Congress are now doing en masse today!
Now, who's comparing the 2020s to the 1930s?
Did he succeed? And are ALL Republicans in Congress succeeding in what he was trying to do?
Show me some examples...
You think NONE of the crap we're experiencing has anything to do with Citizens United or the time honored Republican gambit of refusing to concede? Did he succeed?? How do you define failure?
Did TRUMP succeed in scuttling Biden's transition? Technically "NO" but is it normal to hamstring a transition team to the point where even the GSA head is subjecting the country to added risk by refusing to release monies, resources and computer systems, funds for salaries and administrative support for the monster undertaking of setting up a new government?
Transition officials weren't even allowed to get govt email addresses or office space for well over two months. That eclipses even Hoover who tried pulling the same stunt on Roosevelt.
Hucking filarious to see you attempting to normalize this crap.
History shows that it's all pretty normal stuff, politics as usual, so to speak. What's odd is that you seem to feel it's all freakishly abnormal and spells the end of civilization as we know it.
Quote
Did TRUMP succeed in scuttling Biden's transition? Technically "NO"
Did Trump succeed at staying in office? Also technically "no". Perhaps you'd like to list a few things Trump succeeded at? Or explain to me how his many many failures translate into successes in your alternate world?
History shows that it's all pretty normal stuff, politics as usual, so to speak. What's odd is that you seem to feel it's all freakishly abnormal and spells the end of civilization as we know it.
Quote
Did TRUMP succeed in scuttling Biden's transition? Technically "NO"
Did Trump succeed at staying in office? Also technically "no". Perhaps you'd like to list a few things Trump succeeded at? Or explain to me how his many many failures translate into successes in your alternate world?
Silly me, I guess I am in the minority when I daresay that partisan politics has no place in the Secret Service, FBI, DoD or SCOTUS. What the MAGAts have succeeded at is staying out of prison. No no no not the ordinary peasant MAGAts, the elites. And that's what Trump HAS succeeded at and will succeed at.
If this was the 1930's I guess you'd be one of the folks calling "The Business Plot" just normal politics. Perhaps if the folks behind that had been hung we wouldn't have had to endure January 6th. Folks back then would have learned not to mount insurrections aimed at overthrowing the government.
Did I use the word civilization? Nope, but I will use the word democracy, even though that apparently doesn't hold much value in your world. Trump has succeeded at turning us into an increasingly violent and self-destructive quasi-fascist theocracy with better strip malls.
You must like this guy. With Fetterman it isn’t a case of stances on issues that causes me to like him. It is Fetterman himself, the individual, the person, the man. There’s a certain few politicians or candidates because of the person they are overrides their politics, where they stand on the issues. Politics and stances become totally irrelevant. I like this guy, if I were living in PA, he’d get my vote. This is just another reason why I like him.
You believe that roughly half of all Americans are guilty of treason and should be hung.
Like the goddam Rosenbergs...every last one of them. Starting with Trump.
That every other eye you meet is a dangerous enemy who wants you dead just like you want them dead.
That any political thought unlike your own is a reason to lock up or exterminate the ...infidels?
You seem also to feel that corrupt politicians are a new thing and that this has never happened before...and that extermination or incarceration is the only answer because it's simply unthinkable that they should ever defeat you at the ballot box.
I get the idea that you yourself are only inches from decrying elections frauds if YOU don't like the outcomes, because the treasonous Republicans shouldn't even have a RIGHT to vote.
That no election run by Republicans can be considered fair and that any election won by a Republican was probably rigged...
That's the territory you're staking out here.
Sounds like the old tea party guys used to sound back in the day, and they sounded like crackpots.
You believe that roughly half of all Americans are guilty of treason and should be hung.
Like the goddam Rosenbergs...every last one of them. Starting with Trump.
That every other eye you meet is a dangerous enemy who wants you dead just like you want them dead.
That any political thought unlike your own is a reason to lock up or exterminate the ...infidels?
You seem also to feel that corrupt politicians are a new thing and that this has never happened before...and that extermination or incarceration is the only answer because it's simply unthinkable that they should ever defeat you at the ballot box.
I get the idea that you yourself are only inches from decrying elections frauds if YOU don't like the outcomes, because the treasonous Republicans shouldn't even have a RIGHT to vote.
That no election run by Republicans can be considered fair and that any election won by a Republican was probably rigged...
That's the territory you're staking out here.
Sounds like the old tea party guys used to sound back in the day, and they sounded like crackpots.
Proof once again that you skim instead of read. Perhaps going back and re-reading what I posted might help. Or not...
Was there something in the fine print that negated the billboard?
There wasn't any fine print, Greger.
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
"What the MAGAts have succeeded at is staying out of prison. No no no not the ordinary peasant MAGAts, the elites."
I never advocated mass arrests as you're implying. I realize that you're desperate to paint me as some handwringing hysteric and you'd like to make your accusation that I've turned into the very monster I'm pointing at stick somehow, but your assertion is the product of lazy thinking and broad sweeping generalizations.
The crowd turned cultlike because effective cult leaders know the magic. I want justice delivered to the ringmasters, and I want to see the scales fall off the eyes of the cult members so that they finally see that what they've been worshipping is a false idol.
Beats the hell out of having to take up arms against them if they finally decide to follow Roger Stone's prescription:
"I said f*** the voting, let's get right to the violence."
I think our argument is over whether Democracy is in danger. I say no.
Elections will continue. I have no idea why you believe Republicans would ever give their votes up. I've never heard any Republican say they wanted to end democracy.
I've just heard you telling me that's what they want. Over and over.
To the best of my knowledge all future elections are scheduled to take place and the results will be tallied and reported legally and correctly just as they always have.
You seem to believe that future elections will be "fake" and that their results won't be accurate or reflect the true winners.
Or that elections will cease altogether. How else would you define this "end of democracy" scenario you're so fond of.
It's not Trump I’d be worried about. He’s an uncouth oaf that is incapable of winning any future election. Way too many people dislike him and don’t want him. Except his avid followers which make up maybe 30% of the electorate. 30% isn’t about to win any election, perhaps in the primaries, not the general. The problem with just going after Trump or any leader, like UBL, is there’s always someone to replace him. That someone may not be an obnoxious, rude, uncouth, unlikeable, spoiled brat of an oaf. He may be a smooth talker, likeable, charming with the same ideas and ideals. Much harder to get and much harder to detect by the masses. Whereas Trump can’t attract independents, where independents are much more prone to vote against candidates of a Trump led party, his replacement may be able to attract independents by the bucket loader full where Trump can’t. Trump is overt but beware of the covert. Just a word of advice, take it or leave it.
Just hope that whoever replaces Trump, someone will. That that someone isn’t a charismatic candidate like a Reagan or a Bill Clinton or an Obama with a very smooth outside, but is basically Trump 2.0 with no warts or seen baggage.
Greger you’re simply not paying attention if you think that true democracy did not come close ending during the Trump Admin. Of course “democracy” will continue in a fascist Republican-controlled America. Republicans will “win” every election even though they’re the minority. THAT is how fascism works. That’s how it works in Russia.
Some Americans are already living in a world of Republican "democracy" in their red state - Republicans are taking women's rights-away of her own body away!
Some Americans are already living in a world of Republican "democracy" in their red state - Republicans are taking women's rights-away of her own body away!
Viktor Orban coined the term "ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACY". The sound of that makes my skin crawl. Reading it in print makes my hands twitch.
In the past others have labeled it "managed democracy" . A managed democracy is technically a democratic government that functions in reality as a de facto authoritarian government or in some cases, as an autocratic government.
Such governments attempt to put on an air of legitimacy by holding elections that they pretend are free and fair, but which do not and cannot change the state's policies, motives, and goals because opposition candidates are prohibited from running unless they are granted license to by the autocracy. The managed legislature acts basically as a rubber stamp to grant continuing authority to whatever the autocracy demands irregardless of the will of the people.
Let us not forget that currently in some red states, Republicans are not only willing to take rights-away, they’re instituting incarceration as well. Doing so is reminiscent of 1930s Germany.
To say it’s “politics as usual” is like saying Anne Heche suffered a minor car accident - it was more than that.
Anne Heche wasn’t a “traffic death,” it was a self-inflected, horrific grotesque disfiguring event - not unlike how some are knowingly and willingly self-inflecting their own horrific grotesque disfigurement event by discounting the Republican’s march to Fascism.
Viktor Orban coined the term "ILLIBERAL DEMOCRACY".
Typing in all caps makes my skin crawl.
Viktor Orban has a shelf life too and will be gone in a decade or less. Chances are good that the "lliberal democracy" he embraced will be replaced with a more liberal one.
So you think I should shake off the yoke of this illiberal democracy Republicans have turned America into...?
Maybe I should join a militia and become a sovereign citizen. Buy some guns to protect myself. Refuse my government check and government sponsored healthcare.
No thanks. I will voice my opinion at the ballot box and accept the results with grace if I am outvoted.
Because the election isn't rigged. And I don't think Americans will ever allow them to be rigged. Even though a corrupt politician occasionally comes along and tries to rig them.
If Americans were the weaklings you imagine them to be then they would deserve to go down that path. Because every time a society does it the results are the same. (see history)
But I don't think they are. No matter which party they vote for.
I'm not saying it can't happen here. I'm saying it most likely won't. And even if it did we would overcome it. Because we are f*cking Americans and it's what we do.
Anne Heche wasn’t a “traffic death,” it was a self-inflected, horrific grotesque disfiguring event - not unlike how some are knowingly and willingly self-inflecting their own horrific grotesque disfigurement event by discounting the Republican’s march to Fascism.
Call it what you want, Rick, it was just another drunk driving incident to me.
Anne Heche wasn’t a “traffic death,” it was a self-inflected, horrific grotesque disfiguring event - not unlike how some are knowingly and willingly self-inflecting their own horrific grotesque disfigurement event by discounting the Republican’s march to Fascism.
Call it what you want, Rick, it was just another drunk driving incident to me.
It happened on a residential street - not a thoroughfare.
I wonder if anybody else has noticed the difference between Republican and Democratic candidates for office. The Republicans have about 4 things to talk about; Crime, Inflation and the Economy and Taxes. Right or wrong they just continue to hammer each of these, TV, News, etc. all day long. They have a belief that if you say something, loud enough and long enough, it becomes fact. Their belief works! Nobody denies that. Now we come to the Democrats. Nobody really knows what they want to do because there are not single messages but everybody has their own to sell. One other thing I have noticed is that many are not attacking their opponents (the nice, Democratic way). The newsies seem to think this is the 'honest' way. My own thought is that its not, exactly, a winning strategy. The Republicans have worked, very hard, to give the Dems a chance to attack and win but, unfortunately, they would, I guess rather lose.
I know, I am probably being too negative, have no idea what I am talking about, and should just shut up. Sorry and apologies but I just wish the Dems would get together, try to speak with one voice, and go after any Republican candidate with whatever they have (instead of the 'kindly' route). I should add that not all are doing poorly and are trying to win - but the others deserve to be recognized.
It happened on a residential street - not a thoroughfare.
And drunk driving incidents don't ever happen on residential streets? I don't know your point about this drunk lady crashing and burning while under the influence. Happens every day.
Crooked politicians occasionally crash and burn too...like Trump, and like you I would hate to see him suffer any undue stress in regards to any errors he may have made during his brief stint at POTUS.
He certainly deserves your patience and understanding during this very difficult time.
The Republicans have about 4 things to talk about; Crime, Inflation and the Economy and Taxes.
So what’s the Republican plan to deal with each of those items? Try to repeal Obama Care for the 82nd time?
In the two years the Dems have been in office, they have passed legislation that:
Lowered med prices for Medicare
Allocated funds for infrastructure improvement - which Repubs voted against
Allocated funds to make the US a microchip manufacturing leader
Passed legislation in helping America move from fossil fuel and allocated money for training and schooling in new energy jobs
Provided critical funding for families during COVID
Reduced the deficit
What have Republicans done for the past two years but sit around with their thumb up their asses, whining and complaining about a so-called stolen election - which is a lie, by-the-way, and planning their fascism for America in the long-term if they get back into office.
As as crime is concerned, eight of the top ten cities for crime are located in red states. Indeed, Republicans need to deal with THEIR crime-filled cities. For the record, Chicago is 11 on the list, but Republicans make you think it’s number one - because conniving pathological lying gaslighters are like that.
As far as taxes go, the 2017 Republican tax cut for the middle-class expire in 2024, yet the Republicans didn’t put an expiration date for the rich tax reform to expire. Imagine that!
So if folks think that the Dems don’t have it together enough and think having a Republican controlled government is so great - have at it. I’m sick and tired of the unappreciative so-called left-leaning whiny-assed voter. You get the America that you deserve if the Republicans take over!
In 1994, there an angry electorate which kicked out the party in power, the Democrats. 1998,2002, the party in power kept the voters happy with them. Then the voters got angry with the GOP, the party in power, the recession, wars, etc. They kicked them out in 06. the voters were angry once again in 10, give the Republicans the House. 14, not so good as the Democrats lost the senate. In 18 the party in power made them mad again.
It simple, in our two-party system, the party in power either keeps the voters happy with them, result the party in power stays in power. Or the party in power somehow makes the voters angry and wanting a change. Then the party out of power becomes the party in power.
It's simple. The party out of power is the only viable alternative to the party in power. Midterms are always a referendum on the party in power.
Last time I checked, it’s 2022. This mid-term will be different. Yes, there is an electorate anger - conservatives took a woman’s right over her body away. Woman are 50% of the voters. Past election results don’t necessarily predict future results.
Have you taken a look at the most important issues that folks will decide on who they’ll vote for? All adults 1 Inflation 20%, 2 healthcare 11% 3 economy and jobs 4 climate change 10%. Abortion is on the list at 6%. Independent’s most important issue 1 inflation 22%, 2 healthcare 11%, 3 jobs and the economy 11%, Climate change 10%. Abortion among independents is at 4%. Question 64.
I still can’t understand why inflation, the economy and jobs are listed separate. Inflation is the economy. So be it, it is what it is. To the question of How important are the following issues to you?
Inflation/rising prices 69% say very important Jobs and the economy 65% say very important Healthcare 61% say very important National security 59% say very important Crime 59% say very important
Abortion is way down on the list with 43% stating it is very important.
This election is mostly a nuts and bolts affair with more seats changing due to retirements than any real policy issues or hot-button items.
It's not a moratorium on anything. Just the regular biennial changing(or retaining) of the guard.
We've pretty much known what the results would be for a year. And we've known why the results would be what they are going to be...
And yet the true believers think that some electoral miracle is just over the horizon! That women are going to come out en masse to kiss their booboos and make it all better. And maybe find that lost sock while they're here...and sew on this button.
The Supreme Court is not on the ballot. Donald Trump is not on the ballot. Mostly just a bunch of local yayhoos who will never be more than a yay or nay vote on future legislation. They may or may not be Trumpy dimwits. Their votes will be fairly predictable, and their tenure short....anybody wanna make book on how long Marge Greene's career lasts...?(I've got Marcus Flowers taking her down in two to four years)
So yeah...collectively a bunch of nobodies are up for election or re-election for no particular reason. None of them had anything to do with the abortion decision and few have ever spoken to Trump.
And it continues to be about the stupid economy instead of important partisan considerations and gender issues.
Who cares, Walker isn’t going to win in Georgia. I’ve placed Georgia in my rear-view mirror. Unless something unforeseen happens between now and November, Warnock will keep his seat. He’ll probably win by 5 points or around there. I’m focused on PA and NV in the senate, some on NC.
36 house democrats are either retiring or running for higher office vs. 18 Republicans. Open seats are much easier to flip than beating an incumbent. Greger has this right.
Then for Rick, there’s this.
Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds
Regardless of all the above, I still see the Republicans gain 11-13 house seats and control. While the senate stays at 50-50 or the Democrats gain a seat, PA for a 51-49 advantage if they don't lose NV. NV is interesting as Hispanics are voting more and more Republican. Which is a huge win for the Democrats as the historical average with a president whose approval is hovering around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governorships. The Democrats are posed to gain at 3 governorships. 3 weeks to go, things can and will change.
Its a mystery, the Republicans never tell anybody what they are going to do, only what they don't like. They also don't do much as well. Except they seem to win a lot.
Its a mystery, the Republicans never tell anybody what they are going to do, only what they don't like. They also don't do much as well. Except they seem to win a lot.
Social media was filled with what the Republicans were going to do on J6.
Who cares, Walker isn’t going to win in Georgia. I’ve placed Georgia in my rear-view mirror. Unless something unforeseen happens between now and November, Warnock will keep his seat. He’ll probably win by 5 points or around there. I’m focused on PA and NV in the senate, some on NC.
36 house democrats are either retiring or running for higher office vs. 18 Republicans. Open seats are much easier to flip than beating an incumbent. Greger has this right.
FiveThirtyEight has the house spread at between 6 and 11, which I think is about right. There are definitely going to be surprises. The polls are not picking up a lot of activity, in my view. We're getting close to crunch time, and the question is really who shows up - committed activists, or died-in-the wool base voters. Early voting has started.
Originally Posted by perotista
Regardless of all the above, I still see the Republicans gain 11-13 house seats and control. While the senate stays at 50-50 or the Democrats gain a seat, PA for a 51-49 advantage if they don't lose NV. NV is interesting as Hispanics are voting more and more Republican. Which is a huge win for the Democrats as the historical average with a president whose approval is hovering around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governorships. The Democrats are posed to gain at 3 governorships. 3 weeks to go, things can and will change.
I think after the dust settles, it will be 50 Dem, 48 Rep, and 2 Independents in the Senate. I am hoping for a couple a startling upsets - Johnson in WI, and Rubio in Florida (one can dream). If McMullen could pull off Utah, I would be ecstatic!
On the House side I am much more pessimistic. I wish the video of Pelosi on January 6 got more circulation. She was nails.
As for specifics, I think Fetterman takes PA (+1D), Warnock Holds GA, Ryan eeks out Ohio (+2D), Johnson stays in the Senate (what a waste of human DNA), Kelly keeps his seat in AZ, but the two true tossups I see are Masto in NV, and Beasley in NC. If both of those go Dem, things could get interesting. But I don't know who might eke it out, there. Sadly, Rubio will still be in the Senate, too. Deming is just too qualified to represent Florida.
Its a mystery, the Republicans never tell anybody what they are going to do, only what they don't like. They also don't do much as well. Except they seem to win a lot.
In our two-party electoral system, the party out of power doesn’t have to. Elections are usually a referendum on the party in power. If a voter likes what is happening and what the party in power is doing, they'll vote to keep them in power. Don’t like what the party in power is doing or what is happening, your situation, you vote for the party out of power. There’s only one viable choice or alternative to the party in power, the party out of power. This has been our system since Andrew Jackson established the modern Democratic Party which opposition to him and his party formed the Whigs, later the Republican Party replaced the Whigs. Since Old Hickory, this has been our only real choices.
As I said many times, the party out of power doesn’t have to stand for anything, do anything, say anything, they just have to be there as an alternative to the party in power. At least for swing voters or independents. Those who call themselves Republicans and Democrats are going to vote for their party’s candidates. Independents tend to vote for the party in power when their happy, vote for the party out of power when they’re not or dissatisfied with or angry at the party in power. It’s really quite simple.
Who cares, Walker isn’t going to win in Georgia. I’ve placed Georgia in my rear-view mirror. Unless something unforeseen happens between now and November, Warnock will keep his seat. He’ll probably win by 5 points or around there. I’m focused on PA and NV in the senate, some on NC.
36 house democrats are either retiring or running for higher office vs. 18 Republicans. Open seats are much easier to flip than beating an incumbent. Greger has this right.
FiveThirtyEight has the house spread at between 6 and 11, which I think is about right. There are definitely going to be surprises. The polls are not picking up a lot of activity, in my view. We're getting close to crunch time, and the question is really who shows up - committed activists, or died-in-the wool base voters. Early voting has started.
Originally Posted by perotista
Regardless of all the above, I still see the Republicans gain 11-13 house seats and control. While the senate stays at 50-50 or the Democrats gain a seat, PA for a 51-49 advantage if they don't lose NV. NV is interesting as Hispanics are voting more and more Republican. Which is a huge win for the Democrats as the historical average with a president whose approval is hovering around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost along with 4.25 governorships. The Democrats are posed to gain at 3 governorships. 3 weeks to go, things can and will change.
I think after the dust settles, it will be 50 Dem, 48 Rep, and 2 Independents in the Senate. I am hoping for a couple a startling upsets - Johnson in WI, and Rubio in Florida (one can dream). If McMullen could pull off Utah, I would be ecstatic!
On the House side I am much more pessimistic. I wish the video of Pelosi on January 6 got more circulation. She was nails.
I too at the beginning of my forecasts thought the Democrats would gain PA, WI and perhaps NC. Today it looks like only PA, although WI could surprise. Keep an eye on IA. I also thought NV was safe for the Dem, but it isn’t today. 50-50 chance on it going Republican. But I still think incumbency will carry Cortez Masto to a win. NV brings up another subject, Hispanics. The Republicans are making good inroads with Hispanics in Texas, NM, Arizona and Nevada. But not in the rest of the country. Which explains why the AZ governors’ race is basically a tie.
The momentum has shifted back to the GOP. It was with GOP until the first week of August, then went to the Democrats, now has shifted back to the GOP. unlike in some past elections, the momentum either for or against either party hasn’t been huge. You can see this in the graph below.
Back in July, a gain of 18-20 seats for the GOP in the house looked likely, then the momentum swing in August which cut that probable gain down to 11-13 where I have it today. I do however expect the house gains to rise for the Republicans over the next 3 weeks because of the momentum swing. Maybe back to that 18-20, maybe not. The senate probably will remain 50-50 or 51-49 democratic depending on NV. There’s been changes in the governor’s races also, no longer a 3-4 Democratic pickup, perhaps closer to a draw or a gain of 1 or 2. Still, 3 weeks can be a lifetime when it comes to elections. A lot of changes can and at times do occur in the final 3 weeks.
Which simply means NC leans Republican with Budd having around a 70% chance of winning considering NC history and voting habits among other things. NC has a PVI of R+3.
The corporations have to make the money back they lost when Covid hit and they were forced to pay higher wages for trivial jobs, like working at Sheets or your local convivence store for $14.00/hr. Corporations had to have taken a hit during that time frame.
I don't understand why we are still having supply chain issues. I mean, unemployment is at the lowest point ever (maybe not ever, but for a long time), but we still have problems getting many items in stores.
I think the issue is not as much of a supply chain issue as it is a supply issue. Keep the supplies low and the prices stay high - basic law of demand/price.
Perotista’s Senate and House forecast, updated 19 Oct 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – AZ D Kelly up from +4 to +5, GA D Warnock up from +1 to +3, NV R Laxalt from -1 to +1, NC R Budd up from +1 to +2, PA D Fetterman down from +6 to +4, WI R Johnson up from +1 to +2
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +5 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50 Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +5 Republican hold R 50 D 50 Nevada Cortez Masto D – R Laxalt +1 Republican gain R 51 - D 49 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +6 Democratic hold R 51 D 49 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 49 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 49 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +4 Democratic gain R 50 D 50 Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
The 50-50 tie remains with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and giving the Democrats control of the senate. Democrats pickup PA, Republicans gain NV.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 61 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 44 Democrats and 17 Republicans. Safe seats, 178 Democratic, 196 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 11-13 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 224-212 to 226-209.
If Rick, what you state becomes true, you bet the Republicans will launch a ton of investigations along with bringing any legislation to a screeching halt. But keeping the senate will let Biden’s nominees get confirmed. Then Biden, like Obama did for his last six years will govern via executive order. Which the SCOTUS will overturn a bunch like Obama had several ruled unconstitutional.
If the GOP retakes control of house, look for an investigation into Hunter Biden. Look for McCarthy to deny certain democrats any committee appointments, then look for impeachment of Biden. Republicans will be in the political payback mode. But you will have gridlock, stalemate, no legislation period. All setting the scene for 2024. How all that plays out, I don’t know. It depends on who each party nominates. Only 17% of independents want Biden to run again in 2024, 53% do not with the rest undecided. Question 61. 24% of independents want Trump to run again, 48% do not. Question 62.
Like this year’s midterms, independents will be the deciding factor. Independents have shifted back to voting for Republican congressional candidates this year by a 43-35 margin. If you’re interested in how a Biden vs. Trump rematch would play out today, you have this.
Never underestimate the power of independents in deciding elections. Which both parties do all the time. According to Gallup, independents make up a bit more than 40% of the total electorate. But only around 25% of those who vote in any one election.
If the Rs control the House and the Ds control the Senate, the only thing the Rs can do have their asinine "investigations."
SEE: Benghazi SEE: Durham
...and Nancy becomes the Ambassador to Italy.
And this, Rick, is the magic that always happens whenever Republicans "seize" control...
They make utter fools of themselves. A Biden impeachment is coming up too. In which Republicans will make utter fools of themselves. And the senate will (predictably) fail to convict.
Further diminishing them in the eyes of all Americans, but most importantlyfuture voters.
If the Rs control the House and the Ds control the Senate, the only thing the Rs can do have their asinine "investigations."
SEE: Benghazi SEE: Durham
...and Nancy becomes the Ambassador to Italy.
And this, Rick, is the magic that always happens whenever Republicans "seize" control...
They make utter fools of themselves. A Biden impeachment is coming up too. In which Republicans will make utter fools of themselves. And the senate will (predictably) fail to convict.
Further diminishing them in the eyes of all Americans, but most importantlyfuture voters.
But they will also destroy the economy by trying to hold all legislation hostage to unrealistic cuts. They will use the debt ceiling as a cudgel, just like they did the last time they had power.
OH, we know what they are going to do and the Republican party is not bashful about that. But, their candidates rarely actually talk about what they are going to do. I suspect that those that do are going to lose, unless they have more Republican voters than the rest. Most, however, stick to their talking points and message and that's often enough.
My prediction for the upcoming midterms is that they will turn out differently than we expect, and for reasons we didn't anticipate. Isn't that the way it always goes? There will be winners, losers, and whiners. That you can count on.
My prediction for the upcoming midterms is that they will turn out differently than we expect, and for reasons we didn't anticipate. Isn't that the way it always goes? There will be winners, losers, and whiners. That you can count on.
Golly...could you be any more vague and STILL cover all of your bases?!?
My prediction for the upcoming midterms is that they will turn out differently than we expect, and for reasons we didn't anticipate. Isn't that the way it always goes? There will be winners, losers, and whiners. That you can count on.
Golly...could you be any more vague and STILL cover all of your bases?!?
I predict the Dems will barely hang-on to both houses and it will send a shock wave through the GOP with the MAGAts and anti-Trumpers in a very bloody circular firing squad battle.
I predict the Dems will barely hang-on to both houses and it will send a shock wave through the GOP with the MAGAts and anti-Trumpers in a very bloody circular firing squad battle.
You’ve got mine which I update every few days. I go by the most recent numbers, not the heart. I suppose come 9 Nov 2022 we’ll see if the numbers or the heart was right. Good luck.
For the better part of two years, I've been predicting that neither party would be happy with the midterm results. That hasn't changed a bit. I don't use the numbers or the heart.
But it turns out the numbers reflect the national mood about the same as I do. Pero and I have been in agreement from the start about who's going to win. and by how much. And why.
Once in a while, I get ahead of the polls, once in a while Pero spots a trend that I missed.
Maybe Rick is right and we've missed something big. Maybe Jeffery is right and it's the end of the fecking world as we know it.
Dems will lose the house by fifteen seats and retain the senate with the same tie they have now.
My heart really wanted a pickup in the senate but right now they'll be lucky to hang on to even that. That's what my head says.
Maybe Jeffery is right and it's the end of the fecking world as we know it.
Well now, you're just being "cute" again. My position is that we will wind up with elections that will never be won by a majority of the people ever again.
People will vote in droves the first few times, but after a while it will dawn on them that no matter how large the majority win happens to be, fifteen or more state houses will just summarily overturn election results in their states and the election will go to their predetermined winners, and even if they fail to manipulate successfully, they'll simply refuse to certify the election and claim "VOTER FRAUDZ!" and SCOTUS will scuttle the tally and the winner will be selected by "Ginni Thomas".
And after a while a majority of people will realize that their vote doesn't really count after all and eventually this whole "election" business will resemble a ShamWow commercial, and the idea of voting will be an embarrassing joke at their expense. And slowly but surely the way we live will be gradually controlled by a tiny but well funded and powerful group of White Christian Nationalists. Most people won't notice it at first, but gradually we will begin to see a larger and larger bunch of people who are marginalized and muted.
Not a bang, not an explosion, or implosion, the world won't end as Greger insists I'm claiming. Just the whimper of what once was a long time ago, fading into the fog of memory.
And if all doesn't satisfy the Christian Nationalists, or if the marginalized majority makes too much trouble, they'll just cease to matter anymore, like the folks in Florida who were told they could vote after their criminal convictions were expunged, only to get arrested for doing so.
Well now, you're just being "cute" again. My position is that we will wind up with elections that will never be won by a majority of the people ever again.
I would consider that the end of the world as we know it...just a day at the office for you?
Politics as usual?
Maybe you're right, like I said above. But as near as I can tell there's nothing to be done about it. Republicans are just too smart and powerful for Americans to withstand.
Democrats are too few to win elections, and independents far too stupid to recognize the danger ahead.
Should I just drop that 20 in the Donation box and admit right now that it's over for American Democracy?
For the better part of two years, I've been predicting that neither party would be happy with the midterm results. That hasn't changed a bit. I don't use the numbers or the heart.
But it turns out the numbers reflect the national mood about the same as I do. Pero and I have been in agreement from the start about who's going to win. and by how much. And why.
Once in a while, I get ahead of the polls, once in a while Pero spots a trend that I missed.
Maybe Rick is right and we've missed something big. Maybe Jeffery is right and it's the end of the fecking world as we know it.
Dems will lose the house by fifteen seats and retain the senate with the same tie they have now.
My heart really wanted a pickup in the senate but right now they'll be lucky to hang on to even that. That's what my head says.
Professional odds of each of the follow occurring. Republicans win both the House and the senate - 40% Republicans win the senate and the Democrats the house – less than 1% Democrats win the senate, Republicans the House – 38% Democrats win both the senate and the house - 21%
These odds are dynamic and change constantly. It’s also interesting to note that that the chances of the Republicans winning the senate is up from 28% 2 weeks ago to 40% today. The chances of the Republicans winning the house has risen from 67% 2 weeks ago to 78% today. This shows the change in momentum. The GOP had the momentum until the fist week of August which switched to the Democrats which gave it up the momentum the last week of September back to the Republicans.
Sure, the boat has rocked from side to side a bit, but its general heading has been the same.
When was the last time you predicted a win for Democrats in the House this midterm?
Because historic norms are what they are, I'd venture never. These races aren't that dynamic.
Once the parameters of this election were set, the outcome became fairly obvious.
The Senate could have gone either way this time...but it didn't. It just stubbornly remained out of the hands of either party and as such will be a win for the Dems.
With a weak performance in 2020, Dems barely clung to the House with a 5 seat majority. If the economy had performed well they could have hung on. It didn't. They won't.
2020 was a very weird election, no historical standard to compare it to. It was a 100% pure anti-Trump election, no more, no less. 2020 had a ton of ticket splitters who voted against Trump, for Biden and then voted Republican down ballot. It came within a hair of Biden Trouncing Trump with the Republicans remaining in control of congress, both the house and the senate. If it weren’t for the 2 Georgia senate runoffs in Jan 2021, it would have been divided government. Republicans Perdue and Loffler won a plurality of the vote in Nov, but failed to reach the mandatory 50% plus one vote.
I think most folks didn’t know who they wanted in charge of congress in 2020, but they did know they wanted Trump gone. If it weren’t for the Democrats gaining 10 safe seats during redistricting, the gerrymandering wars, everyone and their brother, including Rick would realize the house is a goner. The senate has revolved around the same 5 or 6 states, AZ, GA, PA, NV, WI and at times NC. 35 senate races this year, only 6 competitive and only 2 that look like they may switch.
Wildcard, Alaska. With Alaska’s ranked voting, perhaps the Democrat could win there. I have looked at or followed Alaska. But with the special election for Alaska House seat being won by the democrat via ranked voting, anything is possible way up there.
Wildcard, Alaska. With Alaska’s ranked voting, perhaps the Democrat could win there. I have looked at or followed Alaska. But with the special election for Alaska House seat being won by the democrat via ranked voting, anything is possible way up there.
It was confusion over the new rules that sent the Democrat to Washington. It won't happen again.
There’s hardly any love for the two major parties. All adults, the democratic party has a 17% very favorable, 23% somewhat favorable, total 40%. While 37% of all Americans view the Democrats very unfavorable, another 13% somewhat unfavorable, total 50%.
Republican Party, 14% very favorable, 27% somewhat favorable, total favorable 41%. 35% of all Americans view the Republican Party very unfavorably, another 14% somewhat unfavorably. Total unfavorable 49%.
Looking at the very favorable, there isn’t much love out there for either major party, today or in 2020. More people vote against a party or candidates than vote for a party or their candidates. It’s comical that after an election, the winning party always says they have a mandate from the voters. That’s wrong, the winning party was just disliked a bit less than the losing party for that election.
More money has been spent for this 2022 midterm TV adverting, than in 2020 the presidential election cycle. In addition to what I stated above, also predict record turnout. Record turnouts favor the Dems.
More money has been spent for this 2022 midterm TV adverting, than in 2020 the presidential election cycle. In addition to what I stated above, also predict record turnout. Record turnouts favor the Dems.
High turnout always benefiting the Democrats is an old wife’s tale which I have proved here before. Here you go again. I limit this to just the midterms since that is what we have this year.
When the house changed hands, control 1994, 2010 and 2018, turnout was high. 2 for the Republicans, 1 for the Democrats. But in 2006 when the democrats took control of the house with a net gain of 33 seats, turnout was low. Finally, looked back at gains of one party or the other of 30 or more seats to compare that to voter turnout in the midterms.
In 3 of the 4 high voter turnout midterm elections, it was the republicans who gained 30 or more seats vs. 1 for the Democrats. The two elections that had low voter turnout, the democrats picked up 30 plus seats in both of those.
More money has been spent for this 2022 midterm TV adverting, than in 2020 the presidential election cycle. In addition to what I stated above, also predict record turnout. Record turnouts favor the Dems.
Here you go Rick.
2022 federal midterm election spending on track to top $9.3 billion
But every new election sets records for money spent and raised.
Pretty much. It's getting people off the couches though, which I count as a plus.
The more people you get involved the better democracy works.
It is both the dark cloud and the silver lining of the Citizens United decision.
Unfortunately, Our Corporate Overloards™ have more money than we do...but fortunately some Corporate Overlords™ side with us on some things...
Quite a lot of them in fact...abortions are WAY cheaper than pregnancies. And religious people think they should get Sunday off.
Does Corporate America want a fascist, single-party, repressive austere Handmaid's Tale society?
If they do they'll get it. Because they wield the Golden Sword that cuts all things before it.
But I don't think they do. I think they like this active spend-thrifty 24/7 business model they've got running right now. It has made them insanely rich.
I think Nate Silver of 538 fame is seeing something I’m not or I’m just slow to climb aboard. He had the GOP at a 29% chance of winning control of the senate in September, today he has upped the Republican chances to 43%
I see it as a no worse than a 50-50 tie or the Dems gain a Senate seat. On the House, Republicans regaining control was at 68% on 4 October, that’s up to 80% today. I’ve always had the GOP retaking the House, so Nate is just confirming it.
It seems Nate thinks the momentum shift which occurred at the beginning of the month is stronger than I think or thought. Still, we both agree that the only states that will flip is PA and NV causing the senate to remain 50-50. That result would still leave the senate in Democratic control. Good for any Biden’s nominees to be confirmed.
It won't be over even after the fat lady sings. It's only the beginning of a new congressional term.
Then we can turn our eyes and forecasts to the next election. Which, will also be the most important election of our lives just like every election before it.
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I think Nate Silver of 538 fame is seeing something I’m not or I’m just slow to climb aboard. He had the GOP at a 29% chance of winning control of the senate in September, today he has upped the Republican chances to 43%
It's a hedge...Reeps likely won't take control of the Senate, thus it's still well under 50%, but the recent surge in Reep's favorability has forced his models into a tailspin so he needed to adjust his numbers. It's a close race that will most likely end in a tie...it's not 50/50 but it's close...and there's not much wiggle room...only 30 Senators up for reelection, all 435ish house seats are up for grabs... a lot more room for surprises there, In both directions.
I think what Nate’s numbers show that the momentum was with the Republicans from January until the second week of August. In the second week of August the momentum switched toward the Democrats. Then at the end of September, momentum shifted back to the Republicans. Which with Oz narrowing the Fetterman gap in PA and Laxalt taking a slim lead over Cortez Masto in NV shows over the change in momentum over the last 3 weeks. I’d say looking at the numbers today, those 2 states NV and PA are the only ones who might switch parties from the party that now holds them. Although there’s plenty of time for that to change and throw egg all over my face.
I’ve also noticed that despite the numbers in the generic congressional ballot going from a Democratic lead of 1.3 points on 19 Sep to a Republican lead today of 3.0 points. The number of seats forecasted for a GOP pickup has remained in the 11-13 range depending on the prognosticator, safe seats relatively unchanged either. But if Nate has the momentum factor correct, the polls will follow and those number will change. I’ve said all along the retirements and Democratic house member seeking high office, 36 of them, left several golden opportunities for the Republicans. The GOP had just 16 house members who decided not to seek reelection. Open seats are much easier to flip, switch than is beating an incumbent. I do expect that 11-13 seats gain for the GOP today will rise some between now and election day. Not by much, maybe 5-7 seats.
It seems so. A month ago, It looked like an easy win for Fetterman in PA, Barnes winning in WI, NC was in doubt, Warnock had a decent lead in GA along with Kelly in AZ, Cortez Masto in NV. Not today. Even with all this new stuff coming out daily on Walker here in GA, according to the latest Landmark Communication poll, Walker is tied with Warnock. I hate it when I can’t see the poll itself along with the party/independent breakdown.
I expect Warnock to win, he still has the lead in the RCP averages. Landmark is just one poll. Interesting RCP is predicting a Runoff as Libertarian Chase Oliver takes enough votes away from both preventing either one reaching the mandatory 50% plus 1 vote.
History here in Georgia has showed the voters for the Libertarian usually go to the Republican in a runoff election. That didn’t happen in the Jan 2021 runoff where Ossoff and Warnock won. Apparently many Libertarians and some Republicans stayed home. Thanks to Trump’s “Your vote won’t count,” campaign after he lost Georgia in Nov 2020. I don’t think that’ll happen this year. Although one can never be sure. The GOP is up to shenanigans with keep your mail in ballot until election day and drop it off at the polling place then. Susposedly to prevent fraud.
GOP voters told to hold onto mail ballots until Election Day
As I stated, I didn’t agree with everything Politico spouted. I think, at least today, that Kelly and Warnock will hang onto their seats in AZ and GA. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cortez Masto does the same in NV, although that one is a pure tossup. I think OH and NC are out of reach for a Dem pickup, but I still have confidence in Fetterman to win PA. A race under the radar that may play out for the Dems is IA. Keep an eye on that one, Grassley vs. Franken.
Although I think Grassley will win going away especially since the momentum has switched to the GOP. One never knows when a race is this close with 17 days to go. No one knows what other senate races may surprise us. I’d say independents are finicky, but right now it’s their wallet they’re paying attention to. Usually in any election for independents it usually boils down to economic issues. That is unless they get really angry at the party in power for something they did that independents didn’t want. Perhaps both parties need to realize that just because one’s base wants something, that doesn’t mean everyone else wants it too.
Rs are running on inflation. Educated voters know that inflation currently is 100% due to greedy corporate profits. The evidence was presented in a House hearing this week. The R inflation outrage is a red herring.
Rs are running on immigration. That too is a red herring. Why? Because in 2013, the Republicans had a chance to reform immigration - but they chose not to.
A bi-partisan bill was passed by the Senate
The House GOP majority refused to let the bill be debated.
Obama said fine GOP House, propose your own bill.
The GOP House refused.
The House GOP then went on a media tour demanding that Obama do something about immigration.
Obama used his Executive authority to reform immigration.
The House GOP called Obama a tryrant for doing exactly what they asked him to do.
The bottom line: Republicans are conniving pathological sociopaths - there is no other explanation to their behavior.
History show every past president has taken credit for a good economy and every past president has been blamed for a bad economy. That isn’t about to change no matter how much you want it too. In fact democrats blamed Bush for the recession, it’s what out of power parties do. There aren’t many financial guru’s out there.
Yeah, perhaps the Republicans are running on what you state. But that is irrelevant to the grand scheme of things. When people are dissatisfied with their and the country’s current situation, they vote for the party out of power. If they’re happy with the current situation, they vote for the party in power. Which party that is is totally irrelevant.
I was talking elections, in 2008 presidential campaign, Obama and the democrats blamed Bush for the bad economy. Just like the Republicans are blaming Biden today. Either a president, government is responsible for a good or a bad economy or they’re not. You can’t pick and choose and be honest with yourself. I believe the economy runs in cycles, it’s cyclical. All a president or government can do is play around the edges. The economy is going to do what the economy wants to do. Think about it, if a president or government could control the economy, we’d have all ups, no down. All good time booming economy, not bad time recessions. None can.
We do however have a history of giving credit to presidents when the economy is going great guns and blame when it turns sour. That’s politics 101 with the vast majority of the American people.
Rick, you part of the 80% of democrats that think the Republicans are out to destroy democracy. Of course the same percentage of Republicans think the Democrats are out to destroy America. Hence, polarization and hatred for the other party.
8 in 10 Democrats, Republicans say opposition would destroy America if not stopped: survey
Darn shame only Republicans and democrats were asked this question. I’d be more interested in see what independents think on which party is out to destroy America. Perhaps they think both or neither or just don’t give no never mind. Chalk all this talk as normal political propaganda from both major parties.
I was talking elections, in 2008 presidential campaign, Obama and the democrats blamed Bush for the bad economy. Just like the Republicans are blaming Biden today. Either a president, government is responsible for a good or a bad economy or they’re not. You can’t pick and choose and be honest with yourself. I believe the economy runs in cycles, it’s cyclical. All a president or government can do is play around the edges. The economy is going to do what the economy wants to do. Think about it, if a president or government could control the economy, we’d have all ups, no down. All good time booming economy, not bad time recessions. None can.
We do however have a history of giving credit to presidents when the economy is going great guns and blame when it turns sour. That’s politics 101 with the vast majority of the American people.
According to Politifact, Republican presidents since Ronald Reagan have exploded deficits, while Democrats have brought deficits down. Reagan sent the deficit from $70 billion to $175 billion. George H.W. Bush took it to $300 billion. Bill Clinton—with help from Bush’s willingness to raise taxes—got the deficit to zero. George W. Bush took it back up to $1.2 trillion with unfunded wars. Barack Obama cut that back to $600 billion. And Trump’s tax cuts sent it skyrocketing again, even before pandemic spending sent it higher still.
Biden emphasized that Republicans have told us what they will do if put back into power. They will pass massive tax cuts for the wealthy, after which they plan to repeal the administration’s actions—like the ability of Medicare to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies, made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act—that are bringing down the deficit. After their plan explodes the deficit again, they have said they would cut Medicare and Social Security.
But sure Pero, let's hear some more about how both parties are equally bad for the economy. Let's hear more about how both parties only play to their base. Let's hear some more about how "the independents" would never vote against their own best interests. Let's hear some more about how the economy runs in cycles. Sure it does, but when one party is literally doing its best to run the economy into the ground, it's hard to swallow all the "bothsiderisms" being crammed down our throats.
Chalk all this talk as normal political propaganda from both major parties.
Pretty much, I reckon all that voters need to do to find out which party is going to destroy democracy in America is to allow each a chance to govern in turn and find out whether democracy is destroyed in the end.
Trump's party had a chance and was soundly rejected even though the economy was good up until the pandemic. His midterms were devastating despite a "good" economy. He lost the House in the midterms and the Senate in his reelection bid.
Biden's party got a chance and did pretty well up until inflation, His midterms aren't looking nearly as devastating...Biden has two years remaining for the economy to cycle back to something that more closely resembles normal. Democrats will then be judged the better in their handling of the economy and will take back the House in 2024.
But only if Biden doesn't run.
Even on his best days, he comes across as a doddering old fool. If Biden runs and loses in 2024 it will have nothing to do with Reeps destroying democracy and everything to do with Dems fielding a candidate who is too old to even campaign effectively, much less run the country another 4 years.
That doddering old fool has racked up an impressive legislative achievement record in 18-months. Even a truly mush-brained POTUS like Reagan didn’t do that!
Giving the party out of power a chance when one becomes dissatisfied with the party in power is a time-honored tradition. Presidents since Truman have alternated political parties. A D, then a R, then a D, then another R and so on with the lone exception of Reagan to Bush the elder. The people have given one political party a limit of 8-year reign. Now the house was different, different when the Democratic Party was the big tent party. As I stated the democrats controlled the House in 58 out of 62 years with a string of 40 straight. But then again, that was when the Democratic Party was the big tent party. It’s not any more as the democratic party seeks ideological purity just like the GOP. Since both parties began their search for ideological purity, we had the house change control in 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 and probably in 2022.
Which proves what? Perhaps people are dissatisfied with the way the party in power is governing regardless of which party that is? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps it’s the way both parties govern? Governing the way the Republicans do, making their base happy doesn’t make the other 70% of Americans happy. Governing the way the Democratic Party does, making their base happy, doesn’t make the other 70% of Americans happy. Counting independent leaners, you could say 40% instead of 30% which is right around each major party’s base. Even so, you’re still leaving 60% of America unhappy.
Giving the party out of power a chance when one becomes dissatisfied with the party in power is a time-honored tradition.
You keep repeating these old pablums but you even admitted to exceptions, almost enough to negate the rule. You keep talking as if this is just an adjustment, ignoring the fact that Republicans intend to fundamentally alter the workings of the system so that there will never be a peaceful transfer of power ever again.
You ignore the fact that they're openly admitting that they're sick of democracy itself. This is just a horse race to you and you seem to believe most everyone else isn't okay with the horse race. It's not a horse race this time.
If they seize power this time around, we're going to resemble Hungary, not America. If we're lucky we might just resemble Mexico under the seventy-eight year lock of the old PRI. If we're not lucky we might resemble Iran.
Neither Hungary, PRI controlled Mexico or Iran allows ANY transfer of power ever. It's like a kiddie steering wheel, you can saw back and forth as much as you like but the car doesn't deviate one inch unless the "parent" turns the real wheel.
You're going to find fascist America very boring for your prognostication musheen.
And your signature will be a sad joke. Party over country? Yeah, right. Sure Pero...you're in for a very rude awakening. Your "time honored tradition" is about to take a final bow for the swan song of democracy and it will not return in our lifetime.
Your "time honored tradition" is about to take a final bow for the swan song of democracy and it will not return in our lifetime.
Do you mind if I wait until it happens or should I just kill myself now...? What if it's not as bad as you say...should I kill myself anyway?
Neither party seems to have a lot of respect for democracy anymore. Anyone who votes against you has already been labeled a traitor to this country. Any vote you disapprove of an act of treason.
That isn't democracy, it's a partisan sham to maintain power through fear mongering and fabrications.
Greger, I’m use to partisan rants. I tend to ignore them. As a swing voter, a non-affiliated, certainly non-partisan which leans toward one party and then other I look at both major parties doing all they can, saying whatever, fear mongering as you said to retain power or to regain power. I’m also use to both parties governing for just their base, not America as a whole. That is what it is as one should expect no less in our two-party electoral system. There’s no viable third choice for those who are or are getting disgusted with the shenanigans of both major parties. Outside of voting in one party one election and voting them out the next. This too as presidents go is a time-honored tradition and is becoming one for congress lately. When I look at the preferred outcome of this year’s midterms, I look at independents and discard Republicans and Democrats.
Question 58. Preferred 2022 Senate Outcome - What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s elections for the U.S. Senate? Independents, swing voters answered 30% republican controlled, 23% democratic controlled, 15% evenly divided with a huge 32% no preference.
Question 60. Preferred 2022 House Outcome - What is your preference for the outcome of this year’s elections for the U.S. House of Representatives? Independents, swing voters answered 32% Republican controlled, 25% Democratic controlled, 12% evenly divided, with 31% answering no preference.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/3vmufv6ya9/econTabReport.pdf Roughly a third of independents answering no preference is interesting. I suspect they see little to no difference between the parties or given up caring realizing their wishes and wants are totally ignored by both major parties. This also shows in who independents plan on voting for this midterm. 41% for Republicans, 33% for Democrats.
Question 86. Generic Congressional Vote - If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?
Here’s how independents voted over the last 20 years. Not quite the vote one party in one election and kick them out them out the next, but close. This shows you how quickly independents can become dissatisfied with the people, party they just voted for.
2004 vote Republican, reelect Bush 2006 vote Democratic give control of congress to the democrats 2008 vote democratic, elect Obama 2010 vote Republican give the GOP control of the house 2012 vote Democratic, reelect Obama 2014 vote Republican, give the Republicans control of the senate 2016 vote Republican, elect Trump 2018 vote Democratic, give the Democrats control of the House 2020 vote Democratic for president, elect Biden, vote republican for congress, letting the GOP gain 13 house seats. 2022 ????? If the polls are correct, independents will vote Republican giving the GOP control of the house
There’s a larger, deeper story here, but this isn’t the time to get into it. I’m not so sure the democrats will remain on the outs for the next 10 years, Greger. It depends on who both parties nominate in 2024. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the party in power loses the house in 2026 and perhaps the senate. Then again depending on who is nominate to challenge the current president, a loss there in 2028 wouldn’t surprise me either. The party that nominates a candidate most attractive to independents will win. Not necessarily their base, but one who can attract and receive the vote of independents. Who by the way if Gallup is to be believed, make up 43% of the electorate. Democrats 28%, Republicans 27%.
If I were a democrat, I'd nominate Tammy Duckworth in 2024 to go against DeSantis. I'd stay away from old has beens like Sanders, Warren, anyone over 60 and anyone who previously ran for the democratic nomination.
It's up to the Democrats to pick a dynamic and exciting candidate in 2024. If they fail then DeSantis will likely sit in the oval office for eight years.
Biden and Harris would be doing their party a big favor if they bowed out early and let the jostling begin for who's going to be our next Democratic President.
Biden in my opinion accomplished his mission, that was to defeat Trump in 2020. 2024, time for fresh, younger faces to take over the mantle of leadership and gain the presidential and VP nomination.
It's up to the Democrats to pick a dynamic and exciting candidate in 2024.
I think they'll pick Biden again, if he's still feasible by then (I didn't think he was feasible in 2020). Mr. Biden was the last person I wanted to see nominated in 2020, but it didn't matter what I thought. It was already decided till we got to our PA primaries. Funny how all of Mr. Bidens opponents dropped out all about the same time. I think that's pretty much what the DNC did in 2020. Told them all it was Joe's turn and to step down or lose all funding. Grrrrr. So, I had to vote for Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, or not at all. I don't like to not vote, so I had to pick Mr. Biden. I didn't really know any write ins, and to write in, would be the same as not voting anyway.
The thing was about Biden in 2020 was he was the ONLY Dem candidate that could be Trump - even Trump knew that in 2019 - ergo the Ukrainian quid pro quo.
Recent polls show that Biden would beat Trump in a 2024 matchup as well.
It's up to the Democrats to pick a dynamic and exciting candidate in 2024.
I think they'll pick Biden again, if he's still feasible by then (I didn't think he was feasible in 2020). Mr. Biden was the last person I wanted to see nominated in 2020, but it didn't matter what I thought. It was already decided till we got to our PA primaries. Funny how all of Mr. Bidens opponents dropped out all about the same time. I think that's pretty much what the DNC did in 2020. Told them all it was Joe's turn and to step down or lose all funding. Grrrrr. So, I had to vote for Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, or not at all. I don't like to not vote, so I had to pick Mr. Biden. I didn't really know any write ins, and to write in, would be the same as not voting anyway.
Biden was a safe candidate to beat Trump which was the number one priority of the Democrats. None of the other candidates were. To beat Trump, the democrats had to attract the independent, swing voters which Hillary Clinton in 2016 failed to do. Biden did exactly that winning independents 54-41. That’s a huge margin that normally doesn’t happen. Biden accomplished exactly what he was chosen to accomplish. Anything else was icing on the cake. To swing voters, independents, Biden was to be nothing more than a transition president, a president between Trump and whoever comes next.
This election has been a tale of momentum and trends. The first one Republican from January up to the first week of August. Then the momentum and trend switched to the Democrats. But the end of September the momentum switched back to the GOP as the above shows. The same momentum, trend is shown in the House, the generic congressional ballot where the Republicans had the lead from January until August when the democrats took the lead and promptly lost the lead and momentum at the end of September.
According to Nate Silver of 538 fame, he gives the Republicans a 46 in 100 chance of winning control of both the house and the senate. A 35 in 100 chance of the Republicans winning the house and the democrats retaining the senate with an 18 in 100 of the Democrats retaining both the house and the senate.
Personally, I still favor the Republicans gaining 11-13 seats in the house with a 50-50 senate tie which means the Democrats with VP Harris casting the tie breaking vote retains control. Although this present trend, momentum needs keeping an eye on.
I know what they said about Mr. Biden being the only one that could have beaten Mr. Trump in 2020. I don't believe it! People were tired of Trump. I think if they voted for Biden, they would have voted for any democrat, just to get away from Trump.
I still believe that. In 2024, if Trump runs again, I still think any democrat has as good of a chance of winning as Biden does. I actually also think, that if Trump runs in 2024, that Biden could very well be the weakest democratic opponent. A lot of people do not want Biden to run again in 2024 - including me.
I know what they said about Mr. Biden being the only one that could have beaten Mr. Trump in 2020. I don't believe it! People were tired of Trump. I think if they voted for Biden, they would have voted for any democrat, just to get away from Trump.
I still believe that. In 2024, if Trump runs again, I still think any democrat has as good of a chance of winning as Biden does. I actually also think, that if Trump runs in 2024, that Biden could very well be the weakest democratic opponent. A lot of people do not want Biden to run again in 2024 - including me.
A lot of people don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run in 2024. Question 30. Do you want Joe Biden to run for president again in 2024? 22% yes, 54% no. Question 31 Do you want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024? 25% yes, 59% no.
Now I study independents in depth, I know who Republicans and Democrats will vote for, they’re boring. Independents are finicky and all over the place, they swing wildly from election to election. Only 13% of independents want Biden to run again, 18% want Trump to run again. Both are losers in 2024 in my opinion unless they run against each other. Then one must win.
As for 2020, Biden was the only Democratic candidate that was attractive to the independent voters. Most other Democratic potential nominees had unfavorable above 50% and a couple above 60% among independents. Biden was the only candidate with a higher favorable than unfavorable. Biden could attract independents in a way no other 2020 potential Democratic candidate could. Simply put, Biden was popular among the independent voter whereas the others weren’t. For a swing voter like myself, the choice of Biden was a no brainier if the democrats wanted to ensure victory. I’m not saying other couldn’t win, but they’d have a hard time getting some independents to vote for them. Biden won the independent vote 54-41 over Trump. Biden did good in my book. When it comes to choosing nominees, I’m always amazed neither party takes independents into consideration. Of course, we all know independents must choose from whoever the two major parties nominate. Even if independents dislike both major party candidates and want both to lose. Then it becomes a vote for the candidate, party independents want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. A third-party vote is also a possibility for independents, 12% voted third party in 2016 when Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Clinton and 5% in 2020. You can be sure it was Biden who picked up that 7-point difference among those independents who voted third party. Could any other democratic candidate other than Biden do that, I doubt it.
Thank for all of the statistics - enlightening. We'll never know if another candidate could have done so well. But, really, it seems they would have only needed about 42% of the vote to win. How many on the D side could have hit that golden 42% mark other than Biden?
You’re correct, Kaine. Since it didn’t happen, we’ll never know. I go by favorable/unfavorable ratings in hypothetical races like that as history as shown folks usually won’t vote for someone they dislike. It’s not perfect nor ideal, but it’s the best way I know.
Yes Jeffrey, it worked. I think the Democrats learned from 2016 whereas the Republicans didn’t. It wasn’t a secret independents were going for Biden over Trump big. When your candidate, Trump has a 60% unfavorable rating from independents, that means you’re not going to win the independent vote. A must for Republicans nationally since they’re still the smaller of the two major parties. They always have been since FDR. Not much difference these days, not like in the past when the Democratic Party was the big tent party, but the democrats still hold a slight edge. Roughly 2 points give or take a point or two..
From FDR until Reagan those who affiliated themselves with the democratic party averaged 45-28 over the Republican Party. That was the big tent era where the democrats controlled the house for 58 out of 62 years. From Reagan until Obama that average dropped to 35-30 and from Obama it’s 30-27 as of September 2022.
I know what they said about Mr. Biden being the only one that could have beaten Mr. Trump in 2020. I don't believe it! People were tired of Trump. I think if they voted for Biden, they would have voted for any democrat, just to get away from Trump.
I still believe that. In 2024, if Trump runs again, I still think any democrat has as good of a chance of winning as Biden does. I actually also think, that if Trump runs in 2024, that Biden could very well be the weakest democratic opponent. A lot of people do not want Biden to run again in 2024 - including me.
Democratic Party Shenanigans forced Joe Biden on us. Now we have a weak, senile old man in the Whitehouse and a tanking economy.
I know what they said about Mr. Biden being the only one that could have beaten Mr. Trump in 2020. I don't believe it! People were tired of Trump. I think if they voted for Biden, they would have voted for any democrat, just to get away from Trump.
I still believe that. In 2024, if Trump runs again, I still think any democrat has as good of a chance of winning as Biden does. I actually also think, that if Trump runs in 2024, that Biden could very well be the weakest democratic opponent. A lot of people do not want Biden to run again in 2024 - including me.
Democratic Party Shenanigans forced Joe Biden on us. Now we have a weak, senile old man in the Whitehouse and a tanking economy.
We coulda had Bernie, Beto, or Liz in charge.....
A lot of us A LOT, voted for Bernie, or even Liz. Liz did not garner enough votes, no shenanigans, she just didn't have the secret sauce. And Bernie was not a Democrat...I realize he voted WITH Democrats but he repeatedly made the point that he WASN'T. So should GM start helping FORD make cars because both brands have steering wheels? Should the Redskins be shepherding Tom Brady into pinch hitting as temp QB but only when they play the Cowboys?
I was devastated when Bernie lost the primaries both times. But I don't blame the DNC. Bernie counted on the youth vote which, by the way, failed to SHOW UP!
When gauging independents, Biden was a safe bet to beat Trump. I was going by favorable/unfavorable ratings of the candidates as history has shown folks usually won’t vote for a candidate they view unfavorably or dislike along with several other factors.
It was a no brainier that Biden would win the independent vote and he did by a huge margin of 13 points. Also remember the Republican Party was and is still the smaller of the two major parties, they must win the independent vote or lose the election. Nationally that is. Also remember, the number one priority of democrats at the time was to defeat Trump. Everything else was secondary if not downright irrelevant. I also said since the Democrats didn’t run another candidate, we’ll never know if they could have beaten Trump or not since it didn’t happen. Going by favorable/unfavorable ratings and past voting habits along with different categories of who people would consider voting for and who wouldn’t even consider. All other candidates except Biden were very iffy as to their chances of beating Trump.
When gauging independents, Biden was a safe bet to beat Trump. I was going by favorable/unfavorable ratings of the candidates as history has shown folks usually won’t vote for a candidate they view unfavorably or dislike along with several other factors.
On this there is no way I could argue otherwise, it was the fear that "the one THING" would crop up which might sink the Dem candidate's chances. Didn't matter what "the one THING" was either, just that the Dem candidate could not afford to HAVE one "thing" and Joe was plain and boring enough that he didn't HAVE any "thing" to pounce on.
Sad that this is the state of affairs but it is what it is. I'm not quite sure it's that stultified this time around but it sure was in 2016/2020.
Exactly. 2020 boiled down for independents to rude, uncouth, obnoxious, very dislikable spoiled brat with his name calling and throwing of temper tantrums, very unpresidential behavior against a likable, but old, dour, uninspiring, unenthusiastic but very much an adult withpresidential behavior. There really wasn’t much there in Biden for the Republicans to latch onto and throw out there to make independents dislike him. Sure, Biden was gaffe prone, but that was part of his charm. Biden in my opinion was the ideal candidate to take on Trump and win the independent vote soundly which is what happened.
There were 7 million ticket splitters in 2020, 7 million who voted for Biden for the presidency and then voted Republican down ballot. I don’t know of any other candidate running in 2020 for the democratic nomination who could have received those 7 million down ballot Republican votes at the top of the ticket. Biden was not only likeable, very important in an election, his persona and past reflected a coolness and calm which independent voters yearned for after Trump. A return to normalcy, bringing back some sanity to the office of the president. That is why in my opinion Biden was able to gain a huge 13-point advantage among independents. In 2020, Biden was the ideal candidate to beat Trump.
After all, you can either nominate the candidate with the best chance of winning an election or make a statement with a candidate with a much lesser chance of winning. I'm all about winning elections. Let other make their statements.
Preview - The results indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest: More people across three of the states surveyed said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate, but they preferred the individual Democratic candidates in their states — a sign that Republicans may be hampered by the shortcomings of their nominees.
Senate Control Hinges on Neck-and-Neck Races, Times/Siena Poll Finds
All Thanks to Trump choosing the GOP nominees in his tirst for revenge. Revenge against Republicans, not Democrats. As I said, Trump has been the Democrats greatest asset going into this year's midterms.
Rick, going by today’s numbers, a 50-50 senate split is still the likeliest outcome. But with a week to go with the momentum apparently on the GOP’s side, who knows? Today’s numbers suggest D Fetterman wins in PA, R Laxalt wins in NV, those two states change parties. AZ stays with the Democrats while I expect GA to go to a runoff election to occur on 6 Dec if neither Warnock nor Walker receive 50% plus one vote on 8 Nov. Libertarian Chase Oliver is polling around 3-4%, which in my opinion makes the runoff inevitable if his numbers hold. If today’s numbers hold through election day, whoever wins GA in the runoff will control the senate. Lots of if’s. But the party that now holds the other senate seats seems they’ll keep them.
In which case if I hit the senate right and we do have a runoff in GA, I expect another billion dollars to be spent on it like both parties did in Jan 2021 runoff. Luckily, I stream all my shows and movies now, I don’t turn on live TV, so that’s a billion dollars wasted on me.
The house, most forecasters, pundits, prognosticators are now saying they envision a GOP gain of 20-25 seats. Mine is still 11-13, but I’m waiting on new data and information as most of what I have on the house races is a week old. It doesn’t matter who’s correct on this, the Republicans are going to regain control of the house.
Perotista’s Senate and House forecast, updated 1 Nov 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – AZ D Kelly down from +5 to +4, GA D Warnock down from +3 to *0, FL R Rubio up from +5 to +6, NH D Hassan down from +6 to +5, NC R Budd up from +2 to +3, OH R Vance down from +3 to +2, PA D Fetterman down from +4 to +2, WI R Johnson up from +2 to +3
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +4 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 *Georgia Warnock D – Warnock vs. Walker 0 election to runoff R 50, D 49 Florida Rubio R – R Rubio +6 Republican hold R 50 D 49 Nevada Cortez Masto D – R Laxalt +1 Republican gain R 51 - D 48 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +5 Democratic hold R 51 D 48 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 48 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 51 D 48 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +2 Democratic gain R 50 D 49 Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +3 Republican hold. R 50 D 49
*Georgia R Walker vs. D Warnock will go to a runoff scheduled for 6 Dec as neither candidate will receive the mandatory 50% plus one vote needed to avoid a runoff. Leaving the Republicans with a 50-49 advantage until 7 Dec when the runoff votes are counted in Georgia. If Warnock wins the runoff, we’re back to the 50-50 tie with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and giving the Democrats control of the senate. If Walker wins the runoff, the GOP will control the senate 51-49. Democrats pickup PA, Republicans gain NV, GA will be decided in a runoff election.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 65 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 47 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Safe seats, 175 Democratic, 195 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 12-14 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 225-211 to 227-208.
It seems as of today, control of the senate boils down to three states. The rest are solidifying to whichever party that holds them now. Those three states are Pennsylvania where D Fetterman’s lead has been cut from 9 points down to 2. Nevada where R Laxalt has taken over the lead from D Cortez Masto who led until the end of September. Laxalt is up by 2 points today. If these holds, PA will be a Democratic gain, NV will be a Republican gain, net result is no change, zero gain for either party.
Which brings me to Georgia with its unique runoff election law which states that if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, a runoff between the top two candidates will take place on 6 Dec. Today R Walker leads D Warnock 47-45 with Libertarian Chase Oliver at 4%. If these numbers hold, there will be another runoff election in Georgia as in January of 2021. Chances are we won’t know who controls the senate until 7 Dec when the runoff votes are counted in Georgia.
All three states are pure tossups, PA, NV and GA. These 3 could go either way. Fetterman’s and Laxalt’s 1- and 2-point leads are well within the margin of error of the polls. That makes them all a tie, a 100% pure tossup.
You type and report polling .... I am worried we are losing our Democracy, if it hasn't already been lost and I just don't realize it yet.
Yesterday a Republican said it out loud .... Republicans will never lose another election. You think there should be a poll for that???
Republicans for weeks will not answer the question whether they will concede elections if they lose. Apparently they believe election boards will ensure they win. Maybe there should be a poll about that???
On and on Republicans are undermining Democratic institutions and there is no polling about it .... o wait a sec .... there is polling but some find it nothing more than partisan whining, so nothing to see.
Here is an example of how polling is irrelevant to reality .... 80% of Republicans view the Capitol insurrectionists as patriots, while 90% of Democrats view them as loathsome criminals ... interpretation of that polling suggests it is nothing more than partisan whining ....
What I report on is the mood of all America, not just one single political party and its members. In fact, usually I ignore both major parties and concentrate on how independents which make up 40% of the electorate are viewing the happenings today, the goings on, how they feel and think about both major parties and the issues at large. Not just from a blue point of view or just from a red point of view. Of course, I realize one or the other party isn’t going to like what I report on or say. That’s life. But I try to be honest with how America as a whole, especially independents are feeling, thinking, their situation and probably will vote.
It's called being informed. Independents for the most have given this threat to democracy a shrug. They’re hurting by rising prices, of gas, of food, of shelter, being able to heat their home this winter, making ends meet today, taking care of their family’s needs. Is that short sighted? Instead of worry about family and putting food on the table, should they be more worried about the threat to democracy which may or may not be true and if true, that is in the future? They have today to worry about and making it through today, keeping their family in food, clothes, taking care of heating, bills, other necessities before they begin to worry about tomorrow. Is that dumb? Apparently not to them, though it may be to you.
Maybe the democrats have been concentrating on things that are only important to their base, that makes their base happy and satisfied, around 30% of the electorate. That has been their message to all voters. But they have ignored what independents deem this nation’s number one, it’s most important problem and by doing so, ignored independents. Do the republican have any solutions or even ideas to combat inflation. Heck no. They’re just the alternative to what is now, today. It’s simple, if one’s life, one’s situation today is worst then one’s life, situation was 2 years ago, you vote for the party out of power in hopes that will change things and make one’s life better. Call it politics 101.
Republicans for weeks will not answer the question whether they will concede elections if they lose. Apparently they believe election boards will ensure they win...
That's exactly Mark Finchem's plan. He's running as (R) SecState of AZ. There are other MAGAts running for office in election offices across the country.
Trump's next coup attempt won't be with tanks, the coup will happen if people like Mark Finchem gets into office that affect elections.
I can understand how you view MAGA. I have no use for them either. But to lump independents with them is asinine. I think your quest for ideological purity to have everyone abide by and accept yours without question is showing. Which is worst or is there a worst? MAGA trying to force their ideology on the rest of us or you and yours trying to force your ideology on the rest of us. Purely rhetorical. You know you just classified 70% of all Americans as being MAGA which isn’t even close to being true. Not every Republican is MAGA either. But don’t let facts get in your way in your quest for ideological purity for all of America.
I have no desire to force an ideology onto anyone. I'm comfortable with the fact that my values align with most decent Americans to do the right thing. I don't ever expect a MAGAt to come around from their fascism.
If others don't want to come along for the ride...that's their choice. It matters not to me. It won't stop me from discussing their poor choice, however.
Interesting that you frame standing up for America and democracy for EVERYONE as ideology purity.
This is the latest based on the numbers, polls available today. One thing to keep in mind is the polls underestimated the Republican vote in 2014,2016, 2018 and in 2020. The question that remains, have the pollsters corrected their problem, possibly now overestimating the Republican vote and underestimating the Democratic. That we won’t know until 9 Nov 2022. The polls are never right on, which is understandable since every poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Perotista’s Senate and House forecast, updated 4 Nov 2022
Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.
Senate changes – AZ D Kelly down from +4 to +3, FL R Rubio from +6 to safe, taken off watch list, NH D Hassan down from +5 to +4, NC R Budd up from +3 to +4, OH R Vance up from +2 to +3, PA D Fetterman down from +2 to +1, WI R Johnson up from +3 to +4
Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50 *Georgia Warnock D – Warnock vs. Walker 0 election to runoff R 50, D 49 Nevada Cortez Masto D – R Laxalt +1 Republican gain R 51 - D 48 New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +4 Democratic hold R 51 D 48 North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +4 Republican hold. R 51 D 48 Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +3 Republican hold. R 51 D 48 Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman, Fetterman +1 Democratic gain R 50 D 49 Wisconsin Johnson R – R Johnson +4 Republican hold. R 50 D 49
*Georgia R Walker vs. D Warnock will go to a runoff scheduled for 6 Dec as neither candidate will receive the 50% plus one vote needed to avoid a runoff. Leaving the Republicans with a 50-49 advantage until 7 Dec when the runoff votes are counted in Georgia. If Warnock wins the runoff, we’re back to the 50-50 tie with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and giving the Democrats control of the senate. If Walker win the runoff, the GOP will control the senate 51-49. Democrats pickup PA, Republicans gain NV, GA will be decided in the runoff election.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House. There are 65 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 47 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Safe seats, 175 Democratic, 195 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 13-15 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 226-210 to 228-207.
HAH! I doubt we will know all of the results by then. It will take a couple of days to open the mail-ins. Then until the deniers get through their legal courses, it could be weeks I'd imagine.
Well...Republicans usually want all vote counting to stop while they're ahead - whether or not all of the votes are counted. So it could be November 9th.
Oprah endorsed Fetterman. Mehmet is too extreme for Oprah.
That is probably as close to any mea culpa as we will ever get from her but it does still speak volumes. I think Oprah is a good and kind soul but I also think she is easily bamboozled.
Or perhaps that's all in the past, and her actions now speak a different path of growth and personal development. Maybe the easily charmed Oprah of the Eighties and Nineties has given way to a more skeptical one blessed now with critical thinking.
An analysis done by Simon Rosenberg shows there appears to be a "ferocious" GOP effort to "flood the zone with their polls, game the averages, declare the election is tipping to them." He says that while it's entirely possible for Republicans to win in many of the elections next week, the polling and early turnout numbers so far suggest there's not really any sudden shift to the GOP - especially not if there's strong turnout by young voters upset by the GOP lawsuits blocking student aid forgiveness and taking abortion rights away.
Rosenberg warned that media organizations are being "played" if they uncritically report polling averages like those from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, given the number of GOP-aligned polls being added in recent weeks in key states. Just look, he says, at the percentages of polls the GOP-friendly groups have been doing in states Republicans consider competitive, compared to polling in states where Republicans don't think there'll be much movement.
It's not just Rosenberg, either; Tom Bonier, CEO of Progressive data firm TargetSmart, pointed out Friday that an "avalanche" of GOP polling - some relying on an "older, whiter, more male" sample of voters than in the actual electorate - was making it look like Republicans were moving ahead.
Digging further into that particular one-day poll is eye opening; it shows Republican Gov. Brian Kemp with almost 20 percent of the Black vote, which is...nah, not likely. A recent survey of Black voters in Georgia showed only 15 percent had a "favorable" view of Kemp, and that's not even the same as saying they'd vote for him.
The influx of GOP polling showing Herschel Walker suddenly up three points - which has brought him within a point of Sen. Raphael Warnock in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate - all appeared well after news stories about Walker's having paid for an abortion. As Kerrey Eleveld explains at Daily Kos, until around October 21, Warnock had a fairly steady three or four-point lead.
Roughly half of the polls included in recent swing-state averages have come from Republican-aligned firms.
Media loves a good bait-click story and they're certainly setting themselves up for good stories about "stolen elections" if the Dems sweep the House and Senate as Michael Moore predicts will happen. These right-leaning polls are not only misleading, they are dangerous.
Republicans all ready amped up from Trump's 2020 election lies will claim "we were ahead in the polls - now look at what happened! There were stolen elections! Election fraud! The polls are the 'proof' " - which will give them the excuse for more J6s.
Media loves a good bait-click story and they're certainly setting themselves up for good stories about "stolen elections" if the Dems sweep the House and Senate as Michael Moore predicts will happen. These right-leaning polls are not only misleading, they are dangerous.
"The rise of right-wing media successfully conflated news and opinion, driving down the public's trust in the news media and journalists." (ROBERT IGER, FORMER PRESIDENT - ABC NEWS)
---It's not supposed to BE that way. It never WAS supposed to BE that way. You cannot "conflate news and opinion" and make them equal because news is supposed to be based on FACTS, while opinion is best defined by "The Dude"... "Well YOU KNOW, that's just like...your OPINION, man."
These right-leaning polls are not only misleading, they are dangerous.
For me, when I see polls leaning to the opposing team, that just gives me more incentive to get to the voting station. I don't throw in the rag and sit out.
TargetEarly is a voting data dashboard for early data trends. TargetEarly has found that more than 80,000 18 to 29 year old voters have already voted in the state of Pennsylvania. Compare these results to the numbers in 2018 - and we get stunning results. The data shows in the year 2018, only 28,500 voters of this age bracket voted in PA.
This early trending is exactly what NPR predicted of younger voters motivated to vote due to student loan forgiveness being tied-up by GOP lawsuits and GOP legislation taking away abortion rights.
My forecast for tomorrow is a 50-49 GOP edge in the senate with GA going to a runoff to determine control. The Republicans gain 15-20 house seats giving them control of the house.
Now there are several states which are still within the margin of errorr, plus or minus 3 points. Here’s the states taking the MOE into consideration. It’s always very important to take the margin of error into consideration.
AZ D Kelly up by 1 – Kelly could be ahead by 4 or down by 2 NV R Laxalt up by 3 – Laxalt could be ahead by 6 or tied PA D Fetterman, R Oz tied – Either candidate could be up by 3 or down by 3 GA R Walker up by 1 – Walker could be up by 4 or down by 2 when the MOE is taken into consideration. NH D Hassan up by 1 – Hassan could be up by 4 or down by 2 WI R Johnson up by 3 – Johnson could be tied or up by 6 WA D Murray up by 3 – Murray could be tied or up by 6
Most prognosticators would rate all the above states as tossups. But I don’t do tossups. I give AZ, PA, NH, WA to the Democrats, NV WI to the Republicans with GA going to a runoff on 6 Dec 2022.
The house looks like a GOP gain of 15-20 seats as independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisan voters seem to be breaking toward the GOP.
One needs to realize in the last four elections, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 the polls underestimated the Republican vote. The question is, did the polling firms correct this problem. If not, the Republicans are facing a darn good midterm. If the Pollsters over corrected, underestimating the Democratic vote, then there a good chance the Democrats will do well, keeping control of the senate and limiting Republican gains in the house to around 10. I highly doubt the polling firms have got this right on. They'ore never right on.
An analysis done by Simon Rosenberg shows there appears to be a "ferocious" GOP effort to "flood the zone with their polls, game the averages, declare the election is tipping to them."
...
Rosenberg warned that media organizations are being "played" if they uncritically report polling averages like those from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, given the number of GOP-aligned polls being added in recent weeks in key states.
For those who want to go to bed early election night. Here’s what to watch for. 1 NH, if the Republicans win NH, they’re probably on their way to a 4-seat gain in the senate. 2 PA, OH and GA, if the democrats win in all three without a runoff in GA, they’re going to retain the senate and gain a couple of seats. A split, the Dems win PA, the Reps win OH and GA goes to a runoff, chances are you’ll have to wait until 7 Dec, after the GA runoff to know who will control the senate.
The same applies to the house, if NH goes GOP, both the senate and NH-01 you’re looking at a 25 plus seat gain for the Republicans. If the Democrat Hassan wins her senate race and Pappas wins in NH-01 district there, the loss in the house will be limited to 15 or less seats, although the GOP will still gain enough seats to regain control.
Then you could have mixed signals from above, which would mean it will be a very long night.
Being on the west coast, we'll see a lot of the 11:00 pm east coast numbers. Things will probably change overnight if close, but those numbers will be good to know before going to bed.
I’m interested in one race here in GA. I’d like to know the results of that race. Then I’ll go to bed. No need to stay up late and fret about the results of all the other races. Those results are going to be what they are whether I stay up or not. I can find out what they were in the morning. Then begin my diagnostics as to why those results were what they were. I have a long history of not worrying about things I can’t help, control or have a say in.
In the last four midterm elections, the ‘out’ party has won independent voters by double digits. Exit polls show Democrats winning indies by 1 pt. 49/48. This is why things are so close.
Good morning after a long good night’s sleep. We have currently, as of 0800hrs this AM a 48-48 tie in the senate with NV, AZ, WI and GA not called yet. If Kelly, Laxalt and Johnson hang on and win, they’re ahead now and I don’t think none of the 3 will give up their lead, this will give the GOP a 50-49 advantage with GA going to a runoff for control of the senate. The House as of this AM stands at 199-172 Republican with the rest still to be decided. It’ll take a few days to come up with the final numbers.
But thanks to Trump with his dumb chosen candidates like Oz in PA, Walker in GA, Masters in AZ, Bolduc in NH and more, the Democrats still stand a 50-50 chance of retaining the senate depending on the 6 Dec GA runoff. There’s still 64 house races undecided. If they split right down the middle, the GOP would end up with a 231-204 advantage.
It seems the polls were right on, correct in most cases. As was my forecast. That’s called blowing one’s horn. Once I get the exit polls, I’ll dissect the reason why. I call this election a split decision when it shouldn’t have been according to Historical Norms, standards. The Republicans should have had their wave election. But that is what it is or wasn’t. I’ll add this as an early observation, independents seemed to go against Trump’s chosen candidates, but for republicans over democrats who weren’t a high profile Trump choice. But thanks to Trump, the democrats were able to keep their losses to a bare minimum. More to come on this at a later date once the exit polls are digested.
Interesting Georgia results, Republicans from Kemp on down swept all statewide elections by an average of 8 points. But Walker, Trump chosen is basically tied with Warnock. Probably pending a 6 Dec runoff. NH, R Sununu won the governorship by 16 points, Trump chosen R Bolduc lost the senate race by 8 Points. OH R DeWine won the governorship by 15 points, Trump chosen R Vance won, but only by 6 points. Both Trump chosen candidates lost in PA. It looks like both of Trump’s chosen candidates for governor and senator will lose in AZ.
All indicating Trump has been a factor, a big negative factor for the Republicans. I have no doubt that better quality candidates could have won in those states if not for Trump. If the Democrats can hold on to the senate, they have Trump to thank for that.
The official count now for the senate is Republicans 49, WI has been called for R Johnson, Democrats 48 with AZ, NV and GA still outstanding. The house is now at 203 Republican, 176 Democratic with 56 seats still in play. The Republicans have flipped 11 seats, the Democrats 4.
This leaves just AZ and NV with the GOP in the lead at the moment 49-48 with GA in a runoff. If AZ goes to D Kelly and NV to R Laxalt as I suspect they will, this means all the marbles are once more in GA’s court. Independents went for Warnock 53-42. But is past history on runoffs is an example to be used, half of those independents won’t both to vote in the runoff. So the party’s base turnout becomes very important.
Hitler said that if you tell a lie often enough, and loud enough it will become fact. That is, exactly, what the Republicans did and they not only got away with it but they have several instances wherein they prove the point
My fond hope is that the Dems get the message. They don't even have to do the lie part, just the repetitious part. That's how they have been losing and its time for them to understand that and deal with it.
There's still 33% of the vote to count in Arizona. The numbers you have are for 67% that has been counted. Still a third of the ballots are left to count.
Although CNN shows the GOP leading so far in the house races 206-187. The more important numbers are the Republicans have flipped 14 Democratic seats to the Democrats flipping only 4 Republican seats. That’s a net gain as of 1900hrs of 10 for the Republicans whereas the GOP needed net gain of 5 to retake control of the house.
While we still don’t know which party will win majority control of the House and Senate, we do know that it’ll be close either way. At this rate the Democrats have perhaps a 50-50 chance of winning the House majority. And the Democrats merely need to win two out of the four remaining Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin in order to retain de facto majority control of the Senate.
The fact that the race results are so close means that the expert predictions were all off.
The Dobbs decision clearly motivated a large number of people to vote who wouldn’t normally vote. Pollsters have a notoriously difficult time trying to figure out how to accurately sample demographics of voters who don’t usually vote but have suddenly been motivated to vote.
Democrat’ House and Senate poll numbers rose across the board from May through September. Then, a few weeks ago the Republicans started commissioning polls that showed the GOP having supposedly locked up the midterms. Even though the media and polling analysts were split on whether to embrace or reject these commissioned polls, the mere existence of these "polls" seemed to goad the legitimate pollsters into shifting their methodologies, because the legitimate polls also started shifting toward the Republicans without any real world basis for having done so. This in turn goaded the entire media and expert class into predicting a blowout loss for the Democrats.
Legitimate pollsters will need to seriously reevaluate their methodologies if they want to remain relevant. Polling analysts will need to rethink their entire approach. And the mainstream media – which eagerly got on board with the baseless narrative these final weeks that this was going to be a red wave – obviously needs to take a long look at their role in this.
Are you telling me the AZ Secretary of State knows the results already although there are still 400,000 ballots that remain to be counted in Arizona's Maricopa County. Along with Arizona's Pima County has about 159,000 ballots to count Arizona election official say. That around 560,000 ballots still to be counted from just 2 of Arizona’s counties. Around another 100,000 from the rest of Arizona’s counties.
Kelly leads by 95,000 or so votes, chances are he’ll win. But with a third of the votes yet to be counted, the winner in Arizona’s senate race hasn’t been officially determined yet. I’m willing to say Kelly will win Arizona tying the senate at 49-49 with NV and the GA runoff yet to be determined. In NV Laxalt leads by 18,000 with 80% of the votes counted. Around 210,000 remain to be counted. NV is still rated a tossup. If Cortez Masto can pull it out, that’ll give the democrats 50 and guarantee them control of the senate regardless of who wins the GA runoff. If Laxalt wins, that will give the GOP 50-49 advantage depending on GA for control of the senate. This is counting AZ as a Democrat win, although far from official or determined yet.
The House according to CNN now stands at 208-188 GOP. The more important number is the Republicans have now flipped 16 Democratic seats to the Democrats having flipped 4 formerly held Republican seats. A net gain of 12 seats for the Republicans. That means if both parties hang on to their remaining seats, the GOP will have 225-210 advantage next year. But there are still 39 races to be called.
The Dems completely flipped the Michigan state government, Arizona state government, and Minnesota state government. THAT is a wave. Not bad for midterm voting is it?
You really need to keep in mind that a lot of late-counted votes in some states are mail-in votes, and Republicans tend to vote in person as instructed by Trump. That was (and still is) part of his scheme to insist that vote counting stop while Republicans are ahead. So if a race is still undecided on election night, that's a good sign the democrat will end up winning.
Pero, apologies. I just read an article stating that indeed the AZ count is not over and I have noticed a change in the numbers for AZ this morning from yesterday.
I don’t watch TV - literally. I have never hooked my TV up since I moved in September 2021.
You really need to keep in mind that a lot of late-counted votes in some states are mail-in votes, and Republicans tend to vote in person as instructed by Trump. That was (and still is) part of his scheme to insist that vote counting stop while Republicans are ahead. So if a race is still undecided on election night, that's a good sign the democrat will end up winning.
Who predicted a red wave Rick? I know of nobody outside of some dumb Republicans. I certainly didn’t and said so here. You have my forecasts, a good number of them. Most of the pundits, prognosticators, most pollsters were showing the senate as 50-50 chance for control with 6 states in the tossup column, PA, GA, AZ, NV, WI, NC. As for the house these same folks placed 25 seats in the tossup column with another 30 or so in either the lean Democratic or lean Republican columns. All at risk and all switchable, all that could go either way. There was no red wave forecasted. But that doesn’t make good headlines when the Democrats did very good, in my opinion excellent this midterm. The Democrats beat history, the historical standards, not only beat but trounced history and let history standing by the road side regardless of the final margin in the house of who controls the senate.
Historical average for the party in power with a president hovering around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats lost and 4.25 governors. The Democrats will probably lose around 15 house seats, which is exactly what me and Greger had been saying all along. The senate, most of the year I had the Democrats gaining one, then settled on a 50-50 split with the Dems gaining PA and the Reps NV. NV is still up for grabs as is Georgia. Arizona hasn’t been called or determined officially yet.
You heard red wave from Republicans quite a lot. Those same republicans which spouted that the polls were wrong in 2016 when in fact they were right. Republicans who didn’t know their butt from a hole in the ground when it came to assessing or predicting an election. And for your own information Rick, the polls were correct once again for 2022.
I actually caught sight of a reasonable and rational Republican, although I still think he only fooling himself if he thinks he's going to nudge the current direction of the larger party in Congress.
Sean Patrick Maloney was defeated by Republican Mike Lawler yesterday and this morning he spent a good five or six minutes on CNN (GASP!!) talking about his goals and the direction he'd like to see the party go in. And he actually sounded reasonable. His wife is from Moldova, by the way, so he made it clear his support for Ukraine is 100 percent.
He's serving in the seat held at one time by Hillary...you know, that lady known for her buttery mails.
You’re totally wrong about 538. They rated the senate as a dead heat which it was and still is. They stated the Republicans likely would retake the house which they will. But no red wave. RCP, senate wise, they had 8 states in the tossup column, could go either way.
RCP did have the Republicans at 227 seats in the house to 174 Democratic with the rest as tossups. Still the definition of a wave election is the party out of power gaining 30 or more seats plus retaking control of the house. At 227 that a gain of 14 seats, below the wave election forecast. RCP was definitely bias toward the GOP this time around.
True, but if you checked at the top of that 55%, it said the senate is a dead heat. His graphics listed 51-60% as a tossup, 61-75% as lean, 76-95% as likely and 96-100% as solid or safe. But wait, that 55% may not be wrong, yet anyway. All the GOP has to do is win NV and then win in the GA runoff, that gives them control of senate 51-49. The senate is still undecided. Laxalt still has approximately a 16,000 vote lead over Cortez Masto with 83% of NV votes counted. Time will tell if that 55% was right or wrong as we don’t know the final results yet.
But a reminder, that 55% still put the senate in a tossup category.
Republicans were predicting a "Red Wave" ( They should have gone with Crimson Tide ) in this election. Part of this was just strategy - if you act overconfident and talk about how much everyone loves you and wants what you are selling, people will usually just go along with you out of sheer laziness - but many of them also seem to have really believed it and were quite shocked when it, sadly, did not come to pass.
Many Republicans were heartbroken to discover that while they thought people would be voting on "the economy, inflation, crime" - none of which are problems that electing Republicans would solve - many voters actually were voting on abortion.
Proof? Four anti-abortion ballots went down in defeat - one of which was really red state Kentucky.
Rick, I don’t run in either the Republican nor the Democratic circles and I don’t pay any attention to either party’s talking heads. I don’t give a cat’s meow or a cow’s moo about what either side says, I ignore them. Republicans predicting a red wave, sure. Hearts not number, polls, hard data nor stats talking. The same with the Democrats talking heads. I go with 538, RCP, Cook, Rothenberg, Inside edition, Sabato, more. The unbiased professionals.
I do think a red wave was possible from January until the first week of August. Being possible doesn’t mean and didn’t mean it would happen. Even then you were looking at a likely gain of around 20 seats for the GOP in the house. A wave election is described as the out of power party gaining 30 plus seats while taking control of the house. Senate wise, the largest gain possible was 3 seats, AZ, NV, GA, the rest were rated safe/likely.
That changed during the first week of August when the Democrats took the momentum away from the Republicans. The house gains dropped to 10 for the GOP and the Democrats were looking at a possible 2 seat gain in the senate. At the end of September, the momentum switch again back to the Republicans where it became apparent around a 15-seat gain in the house was the most likely for them. The senate became a pure tossup. Neither party gaining more than one seat or the senate remaining 50-50 tie. This is history among the non-biased professionals.
No red wave was ever forecasted. I should say, it was forecasted only by very partisan, very biased Republican talking heads who refused to go by the numbers and unbiased data. They were idiots as far as I’m concerned who were only saying what their followers, supporters, audience, viewership wanted to hear. No truth or facts involved. I ignored them, pretty much as I ignored those who were saying the Democrats would retain control of the house.
You were pushing the "the economy, inflation, crime" will triumph and get people to the polls, I countered with abortion, and the defeat of the four anti-abortion measures is indicative that abortion DID get folks to the polls - as it should have because a right for 50 years was taken-away.
You see what you want to see. Explain to me why after the 24 June ruling overturning ROE, that the Republicans continued to lead in the generic congressional poll by the roughly the same margin for more than a month after the overturning. From a 2.6 point lead down to a 2.4 point lead until August when Trump became the focal point for a good month and a half enabling the Democrats to take the lead in the generic.
You’re talking Kentucky, Vermont, California and Michigan. The only surprise among those 4 might be Kentucky. The rest are Democratic states. Republicans won 5 of Kentucky’s 6 congressional districts. The abortion measure there to was to exclude abortion rights from the state constitution which by a 53-47 margin. Very close. Abortion didn’t change a single congressional district in Kentucky. Republicans also swept Montana’s congressional delegation although another abortion measure was defeated there.
Abortion didn’t change any outcome, not even in Kansas. It seems to me it was more a reluctance of independents to vote for Trump chosen candidates, a reluctance to support candidates of a party lead by Trump. Across the board, you can see Republican winning in different states, statewide elections, by an average of 8 points more than Trump chosen candidates or Trump election deniers, Trumpers in general. Democrats owe Trump a huge thankyou note. Trump was the biggest asset the Democratic had going for them, especially among independents as I said more times than I can count, don’t care for Trump.
You can make abortion the deciding factor if you wish, but the facts, numbers show differently.
Arizona now has 78% of the voted counted with Kelly up by 115,000 votes. I expect Arizona will be officially awarded to D Kelly soon. That leaves a 49-49 tie with NV and GA to go. In NV R Laxalt has a 9,000-vote lead with 90% of the vote counted. If Laxalt wins, no guarantee since there’s around 90,000 votes still to be counted.
The house now stands at 211-198 Republican with 26 seats yet to be decided. I’m beginning to wonder if CNN numbers are correct. That is their flipped seats. CNN has the GOP flipping 16 Democratic seats to the Democrats flipping 4 Republicans to their column. That’s a net gain of 12 seats for the GOP which should give them 225 when all is said and done. This may be just me, but the numbers aren’t adding up.
The Democrats has also gained 2 governorships this midterm.
I’m going to throw this in here. I see the GOP worries/fears coming true. This goes back to my, independents don’t like Trump much mantra.
Senate GOP fears another Trump disaster in Georgia runoff
It absolutely did. The ENTIRE Michigan state legislation flipped to Dems. The abortion measure on the ballot rolling abortion back to a 1800s abortion law absolutely brought the Dems out as evident by the legislature flip.
Two candidates who lost, a Democrat and a Republican, and they both conceded graciously. Because that's how America is supposed to work. And the pundits said this has been the case in the vast majority of races, nationwide. Hopeful news!
As far as I can tell a LOT of different groups were involved in the last election. Youth, for instance, seems to be important as was abortion and I can't leave out the extremities of the Republicans as well. The Dems worked very hard to get everybody to vote but the Republicans seem to work very hard to show just what loons they could produce to the rest of the world. The Republicans, in other words, worked as hard as the Dems did to make sure the Dems did as well as they did.
Many Republicans were, basically, seriously offensive and crazy thereby seriously turning off voters.
The Dems should be grateful to them, but keep that to themselves.
The Republicans, in other words, worked as hard as the Dems did to make sure the Dems did as well as they did.
Many Republicans were, basically, seriously offensive and crazy thereby seriously turning off voters.
The Dems should be grateful to them, but keep that to themselves.
...and MAGAt Donald Trump now known as Toxic Trump in many R-circles. But, here's the thing...the Rs would be very happy to still have Trump if the election turned out differently.
Election projections call for Dems to retain the Senate. Who knew that the Republican plan of banning abortion and taking social security away would be so unpopular with the American people - even with heavily rigged GOP gerrymandering?
Conserative SCOTUS judges overturned Roe V. Wade in June. Lindsey Graham promoted a national abortion ban after stating for years the it was a state issue. Rick Scott's plan was to end Social Security and Medicare and he went on and lied about his plan over and over and over in interviews, gaslighting that it was the Dems that wanted to end Social Security and Medicare.
197 Republicans voted to ban all forms of contraception and 157 Republicans voted to ban same-sex marriage.
Decent and good Americans just are not into the Republican agenda.
It will be interesting to see which serving Republicans end up indicted, along with Donald Trump. Garland has said many times that no one is above the law, and the DOJ will follow the evidence and the law. I assume he means the constitution as well, as the supreme law of the land.
I suspect we will see several office holders booted out as per Amendment 14. When everybody in government swore to uphold the constitution, they didn't say "except for the 14th Amendment". That has already started happening. And that lifetime disqualification can only be cancelled by a supermajority of both houses of congress. NOT by a presidential pardon. So it's the ultimate wooden stake through the heart for a politician.
Donald Trump is fund raising off the December 6th Walker-Warnack special election. The problem is that NONE of the money will go to Walker, Trump keeps all fundraising money for himself.
This midterm, the democrats owe a deep debt of gratitude to Trump for all their success. The house isn’t over, 20 seats yet to be decided along with the Georgia senate runoff. The GOP flipped 16 democratic seats; the democrats flipped 5 republican seats which if stands would be a net gain of 11 for the GOP. Historical average for 4 presidents excluding Biden since the house and senate results aren’t final yet.
Approval average, 39.25% house seats lost 48.5, senate seats lost 6, 4.25 governors lost. The historical average certainly will change after all the final results are in. Without Trump’s help, I doubt the democrats could have done this.
Biden 2022 42% lost 11 house seats, gained 1 senate seat, gained 1 governorship as of 13 Nov 2022 Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats, 6 governors Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats, 4 governors G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats, 6 governors Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats, 1 governor
The overturning of ROE as I said numerous times that it was already baked into the equation. The female vote this midterm according to the exit polls confirms that. The follow is how females votes
The 45% Republican congressional candidates received this midterm was the highest female vote they received since 2014 midterms. What swung the midterms toward the Democrats was the independent vote going to the Democrats by a 49-47 margin. Telling Trump chosen and backed candidate to stick it where the sun don’t shine. Not the female vote nor the overturning of ROE. Independents never liked Trump much, the results of the midterm prove that.
The overturning of ROE as I said numerous times that it was already baked into the equation…Telling Trump chosen and backed candidate to stick it where the sun don’t shine. Not the female vote nor the overturning of ROE. Independents never liked Trump much, the results of the midterm prove that.
The conservative Brookings Institute disagrees. See the quote above: It’s wasn’t the economy stupid - it was abortion.
If the Dems are able to get the last senator they are, I suspect, going to have a field day. I wonder, the senate has a LOT of stuff passed by the Democratic house and now its probably going to be a Republican house. I wonder, what happens to all that legislation that the Democratic house passed last year?
In any case they will no longer be dependent on the two troublesome Democratic senators.
The overturning of ROE as I said numerous times that it was already baked into the equation…Telling Trump chosen and backed candidate to stick it where the sun don’t shine. Not the female vote nor the overturning of ROE. Independents never liked Trump much, the results of the midterm prove that.
The conservative Brookings Institute disagrees. See the quote above: It’s wasn’t the economy stupid - it was abortion.
You're free to believe whatever you want to believe. The numbers say different. Abortion didn't change anyone's vote, pure and simple. Either go by the numbers, they're cold hard facts or don't. Up to you.
If the Dems are able to get the last senator they are, I suspect, going to have a field day. I wonder, the senate has a LOT of stuff passed by the Democratic house and now its probably going to be a Republican house. I wonder, what happens to all that legislation that the Democratic house passed last year?
In any case they will no longer be dependent on the two troublesome Democratic senators.
No, what was passed by the House ends at the end of this session if not passed by the senate prior to the new session begins. There's no carry over from one session to the next.
The overturning of ROE as I said numerous times that it was already baked into the equation…Telling Trump chosen and backed candidate to stick it where the sun don’t shine. Not the female vote nor the overturning of ROE. Independents never liked Trump much, the results of the midterm prove that.
The conservative Brookings Institute disagrees. See the quote above: It’s wasn’t the economy stupid - it was abortion.
You're free to believe whatever you want to believe. The numbers say different. Abortion didn't change anyone's vote, pure and simple. Either go by the numbers, they're cold hard facts or don't. Up to you.
I will take the analysis from rock-solid, tried and true conservative Brookings Institute over an armchair amateur that the Institute says abortion DID win the election for the Dems, thanks.
You’re welcome. Now explain to me why more women voted for Republican congressional candidates in 2022 than in 2020, 2018 or 2016 if abortion was so important. Perhaps abortion was more important to pro-lifers than pro-choicers in the female ranks? I don’t know. All I know is 45% of all women voted Republican in 2022 vs. 42% in 2020, 40% in 2018. In fact the 53% of women who voted democratic in 2022 was the lowest percentage of women who voted Democratic since 2014. Maybe you’re right, abortion caused the drop in the women’s vote. Could be. At least that may be what the numbers show.
Explain this to me, please. Pretty please. Pretty, pretty, please why less women voted Democratic since 2014 this year if abortion was that important. Please.
I’ll let the Pew Research explain it to you. Pew even let THE NUMBERS tell the story. My mansplaining of why women do what they do, won’t do women justice.
I get to some, the idea that is central to women lives is their healthcare which they think about constantly - while men don’t. It is often men who give short shrift to women's health as evident in recent legislation.
All I want to know is why 45% of all women voted Republican this time around, the highest percentage voting Republican since 2014. Abortion may have been mighty important to a lot of women, no doubt. But as I stated many times, those who abortion was mighty important were already democrats and voted that way. Only, if only is the right word, in 2016 41% of women voted for Trump, 40% of women voted for Republican congressional candidates in 2018 while 42% voted for Trump in 2020. All lower percentages of the woman’s vote going Republican than in 2022. Abortion didn’t seem to change any woman’s vote as to who they were planning on voting for.. If abortion was the game changer as you seem to imply, wouldn’t a higher percentage, more women vote Democratic this year than in previous years?
I don’t think abortion played a major part for 2 reasons. Why the overturning of ROE didn’t change any of these women’s minds as to who they had planned to vote for. 1. Is above, more women this year voted for Republicans than in the 3 previous elections and less women voted Democratic this year, also less than any of the three previous elections. 2. Overturning Roe didn’t move the generic congressional ballot one solitary inch until 5 weeks after the decision. By that time Trump had entered the fray as the news headliner star. Trump’s entry changed the momentum from Republican to democratic.
On a lighter note, here’s an interesting article.
The New York Times - Trump Angst Wracks Republicans (Again) as 2024 Announcement Looms
From the article: “As an American, the idea of another Trump campaign and all of his lies and divisiveness and his efforts to undermine American democracy is an absolute horror show,” said Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. “On the other hand, I got to say that as a politician who wants to see that no Republican is elected to the White House in 2024, from that perspective, his candidacy is probably a good thing.”
In the end Rick, it’s the results that matter. Abortion may or may not have much to do with that. What counts is the Democrats keep control in the senate. The House stands 212-204 Republican with 19 seats still to be decided. I’m still having problems with CNN’s math in regards to pickups, gains, flips. They report the Republicans have flipped 17 Democratic seats to the Democrats flipping or switching 5 Republican seats. A net gain of 12 seats for the Republicans. You had a 222-213 advantage prior to the election, if CNN is correct that the GOP should end up with a 225-210 majority. We’ll see.
I’m not saying the count of 212-204 is wrong, it’s just seats flipped if one follows the remaining 19 seats isn’t adding up. Of course, I suppose only a numbers guy would be attuned to that. The Democrats still have a chance, a slim one of retaining the house.
Trump running in 2024 might seem like a good thing for Democrats, but the problem with it is it encourages a lot of MAGAite candidates to run, and they can win their primaries. In deep red states and districts, they can then win elections. So it perpetuates trumpism, even if Trump loses.
I suspect that a lot of Trump's MAGA base will lose interest once Trump is out of the race. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump "burns the house down" by telling them it's all rigged and to stay home on election day.
But I also think Garland will not ignore the 14th Amendment, so Trump may be disqualified even if he gets probation instead of prison.
Rick, Independents splitting their ticket is not unusual. Look at 2020, Biden won the presidency with independents voting for him by a 54-41 margin. But independents voted for the Democrats in the congressional races 49-48. Lots of split ticketing there. For senators in 2020 it was independents voting Republican 51-47 and for governors 52-47. This is why I said 2020 was no more than an anti-Trump election with no endorsement of either party’s agenda. Independents just wanted Trump gone. So many voted for Biden, against Trump is more the truth than for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot. 2020 was a split decision. Much like 2022.
Georgia may do the same, split ticket. Kemp received 54% of the vote here, Walker 48%. A large portion of Independents vote candidates more than party. Then too, governor races are more local, decided on local issues while senate races are more national, with national issues holding priority.
Keep in mind, independents aren’t loyal to any political party. Most detest both parties. Only 25% of independents view the Democratic favorably, 26% the Republican Party. Why is the house so close this time? It looks like the Democrats winning the gerrymandering wars, a plus of 10 seats saved them from a rout. As of now the total popular vote for congress is Republicans 51.2 to the Democrats 46.9%. Not official yet as they’re still counting, but this is the current numbers.
I’m a swing voter who has split his ballot or ticket almost every election I can remember. Voting for some Republicans and voting for some democrats. It all depends on the candidates, who I like and or dislike. Many times, I vote third party if I dislike both major party candidates. I’m not a party loyalist either. I don’t march to either party’s drumbeat. But being anti-Trump these last 6 years has moved me closer to the Democrats than the GOP. Although I still voted for some non-Trump Republicans this time. I’m sure other swing voters, I like swing voter better than independent, that they did the same as I. Voted the candidate, not the party.
Pondering - I think the Republicans will now enter a civil war period. At least that’s how it looks now. Trump and his MAGA candidates took a whipping this time around. But they still want control of the Republican Party. There are other non-MAGA, non-Trump Republicans who want to move on. They know Trump and MAGA aren’t the type of candidate that win in the general election, sticking with them means more defeats in the future. McCarthy and McConnell may be out. The Democrats may rejoice at that, but those two could be considered moderate when compared to who replaces them. Time will tell.
Trump, MAGA republicans still want control of the GOP, sane Republicans, Republicans interested in winning general elections knows MAGA is a losing proposition as this election proved. The question is, are there enough non-MAGA Republicans to oust MAGA. I doubt it. But all of this helps the Democrats. Too many Republicans are only interested in making a statement, they're Trumpers, they’re not interested in winning elections. Watch and see what happens, this could be interesting.
Thank you, I wasn't sure about that one but now I know better! Kinda makes sense. I wonder why the Dems pass stuff they know will never see the light of day.
That didn’t matter, she was well like in her district which continued to return her to Washington and by fellow Democrats who kept her as Speaker. She did her job darn well. I think the Democrats will miss her leadership.
You wonder about the DOJ, here in Georgia I’m wondering about the Atlanta DA. With either one I’d expect a political firestorm. I think Trump announced so early so he can claim his indictment by either Atlanta, or the DOJ is nothing more than a Democratic administration, party, partisan witch hunt and trial due to both the Atlanta DA and the DOJ under Democrats. That Trump is be persecuted solely for political reasons as the democrats don't want him runnng for president. Which in all honesty, they don't.
I also predict that the 40% of Americans who are democrats or independents lean democratic will rejoice. That around 40% of Americans who are republicans or independents lean republican will defend Trump, be outraged and probably take to the streets in protest as they view the indictments if they come as nothing more than Democratic partisanship revenge. An unwarranted use of government power for purely political partisan reasons. The remain 20% won’t give an owl’s hoot about the whole thing one way or the other. They won’t care.
Were they? Generic congressional ballot wise RCP had the GOP winning the popular vote by 2.5 points. With 7 races to be determines, republicans received 50.9% to the Democrats 47.3% nationwide which is what the generic congressional ballot is. With the margin of error of plus of minus 3 points which these polls have, RCP generic was off by 1.1 points. 2.5 Republican advantage in the polls to a 3.6 Republican advantage when the votes were counted. Being off by 1.1 points is well within the 3 point plus or minus margin of error, so RCP was right on and correct as far as the generic is concerned. The Democrats winning the gerrymandering wars by 10 districts made this a close race as to the number of seats each party will have in the House.
Senate wise, the polls had Kelly winning in AZ which he did, Fetterman winning PA, GA going to a runoff which it is. Hassan winning NH, Budd winning in NC, Johnson in WI, Vance in OH, Rubio winning FL. The only one the polls got wrong was NV where Cortez Masto beat Laxalt in a very close race. The polls missed 1 out of 35 senate races. That’s pretty darn good. I also missed NV. I predicted Laxalt.
I can’t give the polling figures on the house races as I don’t have all the polls for all 435 races. What I have is the Republicans leading in 204 vs the Democrats leading in 186 with 45 no polls on. I can’t tell you how accurate the polling was for each district as I don’t have the information to give you that. Just nationally.
Right now, the Republicans have their 218, a 5-seat gain with 7 more races to be called. Which makes CNN’s number questionable. CNN reports the Republicans flipped 18 previously held democratic seats, the Democrats flipped 6 previously held Republicans seats which if CNN is correct, that a net gain of 12 for the Republicans. With the old House, the Democrats had a 222-213 advantage, a net gain of 12 should give the Republican 225. I’m still having problems with CNN’s math. But this is a numbers guy problem, not yours. I think flipped seats should match the final total for each party.
That doesn't mean the polls were wrong, it means house predictions were slightly off. Remember there were 45 house seats I took a SWAG on that I couldn't find any polls on. The house generic polls were right on with the total popular vote. It's the number of seats won and lost that were slightly off. I'm satisfied with the senate, 34 out of 35. 97% there. There are still 7 seats according to CNN that hasn’t been called. The GOP leads in 4, the Democrats in 3. If those leads hold up, that would give the GOP a gain of 9 seats from their original 213 to 222. Think about that, The Democrats entered the midterm with a 222-213 advantage, if the leads hold up in the final 7 outstanding not called seats, the Republicans will have an identical 222-213 advantage the Democrats just had. Amazing for a numbers guy.
9 isn’t 13-15, but considering we’re talking about 435 seats, that isn’t too bad. Remember I said 13-15 seat gain for the Republicans. Missing it by 4 if everything holds, I think that’s pretty good. It’s real close. One seat the democrats lead in is Alaska which has ranked choice voting. Alaska is still counting votes for the 1st round. With 90% of the vote counted for the 1st round D Peltola leads with 48%, R Palin is next with 26%, R Begich at 24% and Independent Bye 2%. Since Peltola didn’t receive the 50% plus one vote, they’ll have to go to round 2 where Bye is eliminate and his 2nd choice votes are given to whomever they chose, then probably a 3rd round where Begich’s 2nd choice votes are awarded to either Peltola or Palin.
Another interesting race I’ve been watching is the Alaska senate race, again with 90% of the votes counted in the first round of ranked choice voting. R Tshibaka leads with 43.3%, R Murkowski has 43.1% D Chesbro at 10% and R Kelly at 3%. This one will be headed for a 2nd round also and probably a 3rd round.
Oh, Greger said 11 seat gain for the GOP, so he came closer than I did. That would be 224 Republican seats to my 226-228. Beaten by a rookie, congratulation Greger.
Actually I think there is something like 8 investigations into Trump malfeasance. All but the first one filed, I suspect, will stir things up. If they all come to pass that's probably the only one to be a big deal and if they all do it then, by the time they are all over I also suspect that its gonna be old hat and nobody is going to care. I guess what I am saying is that if everybody actually files that there are gonna be a lot of admirers that may have changed their minds along the way. As far as I know the DOJ has 2 years to do something. I think that if one of these cases actually gets him into court then all the rest will work a little harder to join the herd.
My suspicion is that when the true believers understand that Trump doesn't pay his bills, has been stealing from Gov from the getgo and lies so much that his own attorneys are terrified and don't want him to testify because he can't help himself. I think I remember when one news paper kept a record of Trump lies and, as far as I know, they stopped at about 6000 lies. Now throw in the simple fact that he has been milking the true believers themselves for a very long time and ............ Once the dam breaks its gonna be interesting.
I also doubt, very much, that Trump could ever win back the presidency. There are simply too many who just want him gone, on all sides. If that happens then many of the elected true believers will be in for it as well. Its kinda like the old story of picking a bad horse.
The real problem is what happens if Trump weathers the storm, is never charged or wins on the cases then I have to wonder what happens to the lefties as well. There is a LOT of stuff that each side has invested in over nailing Trump and BOTH sides, depending on outcome, will lose much when they lose.
It’s now 219-212 Republican advantage with 4 seats left to be determined. Republicans lead in 3 of those with Alaska being the 4th to be determined by rank voting. Republican Boebert won in Colorado 3.
Here’s a thought as I dig further into exit polls and after-action reports that the midterms ceased being a referendum on Biden and the Democrats as is usually the case. Although this was a part of it. The midterms turned into referendum on Trump and to a smaller part, on the overturning of ROE and on rising prices, inflation. Biden and his poor overall job approval rating of around 40% wasn’t part of the equation as I and most other forecasters thought it would be. It’s interesting at the number of Trump chosen candidates who lost. I can think of at least 4 senate candidates who lost in states the Republicans should have won and a 5th who was a tossup, Bolduc. 2 Trump chosen governors and 15 Trump endorsed house candidates also lost.
Remember, from January through July, the Republicans seems poised for a possible red wave election when Trump was out of the picture. In the background, not on the news, basically forgotten about by independents. Then around the first week of August, Trump became a headline news star. On the news constantly, leading off on most news reports. That’s when the Democrats took the lead in the generic congressional ballot. Fetterman, Warnock, Cortez Masto, Kelly senate wise all moved to double digit leads or close to it in the case of Warnock and Cortez Masto. That held until the end of September when Trump moved more to the back page of the news reports. The Republicans took over the lead in the generic. Although by a point or two, nothing big. The senate candidates lead I mentioned fell to where Laxalt overtook Cortez Masto and Walker grabbed the lead over Warnock, Bolduc in NH closed within 3 points of Hassan, Masters in AZ closed to within 4 points, Oz in PA within 1.
We all know what happened on election day. Surprisingly, independents who all of us prognosticators thought would be voting for Republicans, abet by a smaller margin than normal with a president hovering around 40% approval, they voted Democratic 49-47. Why? My conclusion is Biden stayed in the background, basically unseen. Trump was out front. Gaining exposure all over the place. Hence instead of becoming a referendum on Biden and company as usual, in became more of another referendum on Trump. For the most part, non-Trump endorsed Republicans candidates won, many Trump endorsed or chosen candidates lost. This election was more a referendum on Trump than Biden and company, especially among the independent voters who don’t like Trump much.
Still the Republicans increased their vote among women, 45% the highest since 1988 when G.H.W. Bush received 50%, among blacks 13%, the highest since 1976 when Ford received 15%. 39% of the Hispanic vote, second only to G.W. Bush’s 44% in 2004 since 1972 when keep stats on Hispanics began. The 42% of the white vote fell below the 2018 midterms 44% and Obama’s 43% in 2008, then you must go back to 1976 when Carter received 47% to find when democrats other than in 2008 and 2018 received higher than the 42% the Democrats received this year. There’s a trend developing here, but that can be addressed another day.
Thanks to decent Americans, against everyone's predictions, except for Michael Moore, the election deniers lost, and the defiers won.
Independents showed they could actually be independents. Usually they're just closet Repoblicans. This year, they did what they never do in midterms, they came in droves for the party in power - and told the party that ran on a platform of "fck elections" to "go fck yourselves."
Sometimes America surprises you - this year was something special, our better angels haven't put up a win like this in a long time
ndependents showed they could actually be independents. Usually they're just closet Repoblicans. This year, they did what they never do in midterms, they came in droves for the party in power - and told the party that ran on a platform of "fck elections" to "go fck yourselves."
Given there was no red wave, independents thwarted Rwing fascism and they should be commended for doing the decent, right thing. The fact that independents supported the party in power this midterm says a lot.
It says they don’t like Trump as independents proved in 2018, 2020 and 2022. But they don’t like both major parties either. Only 28% of independents have a favorable view of the Democratic Party, 29% of the Republican Party.
What they don’t like is Trump himself which they proved by voting against Trump endorsed, chosen candidate like Walker, Bolduc, Oz, Laxalt, Masters, Cox, Diehl, Tshibaka, Palin etc. but voting for non-Trump Republicans like Sununu, Kemp, DeWine, Murkowski, Grassley, Phil Scott, etc.
If you equate fascism to Trump, then yes, you're correct. Independents voted against him and his candidates. But they also voted against the Democrats when there was a non-Trump Republican candidate available.
CNN now has it 219-212 Republican/Democrat in the house with 4 races remaining. AK -1, CA-3,13 and 22. The Republican holds the lead in all the CA races while Alaska will go to a second round in the rank voting system AK has now installed since no candidate received the 50% plus one vote.
The GOP may control the house, but they’re far from unified. All they can do is stop Biden’s legislative agenda. But Biden can govern by Executive Order as Obama did his last six years. Obama bypassed congress in quite a lot of his agenda. Although some were eventually ruled unconstitutional. Most weren’t.
But some of CNN numbers still bug me. CNN has the Democrats flipping 6 Republican seats while the Republicans flipped 18 democratic seats. Being the Democrats held a 222-213 advantage pre-midterm in the house. The Republicans have a 12-seat net gain if one goes by the flipped seats CNN is reporting which should give the Republicans a 225-210 advantage which if CNN numbers are correct is impossible with just 4 races left. Of course, this is a numbers guy problem.
I think what was meant by that comment is in races which were close the Dems came in droves to take some of those races.
Where I live even if Dems came in droves it wouldn't do any good, as Republicans have effectively gerrymandered the state so it wouldn't matter. My vote was a throwaway in the precinct where I voted as 99% of my neighbors are true MAGA supporters.
Despite all the hubbub regarding midterms the only real news was Trump is running again, just as every person who understands narcissists would have predicted.
On the bright side, none of the election deniers, who had all stated they would have overturned the election, were elected. Thus one avenue for Trump to win (in case he actually loses) has been shunted. Of course we still have to wait to see what Republican legislatures will do regarding new election laws. It could be they will try to retain all the power of the elections and award themselves power to overturn elections or not certify them. Gotta wait on that and the SC to see where they are going (they have ruled against Trump but may be waiting to rule FOR Republicans).
Despite all the focus groups and polling as one pundit who agreed with me said, when it comes right down to the nitty gritty the base will continue to follow Trump. He is their voice .... Gov De Santis is but a faint echo.
A couple of very Red counties in Arizona have election boards that say they won't certify the election because of MAGA fantasies. The funny thing is that Arizona election law says that any county that does not certify by December 5th, has all it's votes disqualified. There are a few very close races where this would flip the winner from the Republican to the Democratic candidate. They could even lose a House seat!
Since these are predominantly Republican votes, there is no race that could flip Republican. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Two things I’ve noticed RPorter, Trump still is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. But a closer look shows Trump has fallen below 50% for the first time, DeSantis has risen from the teens to the upper 20’s. This has been a long-term trend. I think this trend will continue, DeSantis rising, Trump falling as time goes by.
Second, yes. Those GOP candidates who campaigned on the past, the 2020 stolen election were for the most part losers. This isn’t what independents wanted to hear, although it was what the Republican base wanted to hear. Republicans who campaign on the future or on their record as was the case for Republican governors were the winners. People want good government, DeWine, Kemp and Sununu for example gave the people of their state good government. They were reelected in races that weren’t close, runaways. While Trump chosen senate candidate trailed them by around 15 points in the votes they received on average. Vance, Walker, Bolduc.
I’d say the Republican base is slowly changing also. Back in January 2021 65% of all Republicans had a very favorable view of Trump, 16% somewhat favorable. Total favorable 81%. Today 41% of all Republicans view Trump very favorable, down 24 points. 37% somewhat favorable, up 21 points, total favorable, 78%. How to define somewhat isn’t really definable. But somewhat isn’t wholehearted support. It's kind ow wishy washy, like Trump is better than any democrat kind of support.
DeSantis on the other hand is seen 55% very favorable by all Republicans, 19% somewhat favorable today. DeSantis very favorable’s are higher than Trump’s 41% I expect the trend toward DeSantis will continue, slowly, but will continue. The die hard Trumpers will never leave him, but what percentage do they make up of the Republican Party these days? Taking a SWAG, I’d estimate 35-40%. Basically, the same number he had back in 2016 when the GOP primaries began. The rest just jumped on his bandwagon.
Getting closer to the end, CNN now has the house 220-212 with 3 races yet to be determined. CA-2 and CA 13 which the Republican leads along with Alaska ranked voting at large district. The Democrat Peltoia will end up the winner once everything is done up there. Bringing the house to what looks like a final of 222-213. That 222-213 sound familiar? This is how the house stood prior to the election, except the Democrats had the majority. That would be a net gain of 9 seats for the GOP. Right close to Greger’s predicted 11.
However, CNN’s flipped, or pickup seats don’t match the probably final results. CNN has the Democrats flipping or gaining 6 republican formerly held seats while the GOP flipped or gained 18 formerly held Democratic seats. A net gain of 12 instead of 9. I’m still bugged by this. 213 Republicans seats prior to the election, a net gain of 12 should give them 225, not 222.
This leaves the house 220-213 with 2 California races yet to be determined. CA-13 and CO-3 which the republicans lead. Lisa Murkowski also retained her senate seat.
Likely result is a 222-213 Republican controlled house.
One seat left to be decided per CNN, CA-13 where the GOP candidate has a slight lead with 96% of the vote in. With Alaska at large seat going democratic and CA-3 going Republican yesterday, today’s count is a 221-213 Republican advantage.
This guarantees CNN’s numbers on seats gained, flipped or switched will be wrong. CNN has the Democrats flipping 6 Republican seats, the Republicans flipping 18 Democratic seats for what should be a net gain of 12 seats for the republicans. With the old house being at 222-213 Democratic, those flipped or switched from the other party should have given us a 225-210 house.213 plus 12 flipped seats equals 225. Republicans won the popular vote 50.7 to 47.7 popular vote so far .54,150,415-50,790,432 Republican congressional candidates.
Ticket splitters ruled the day in the midterms. A little over 5 million voters split their tickets in the top races. Especially in states like Georgia, Kansas, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and probably a few more. Sometimes it was voting for a republican governor then a democratic senator or the other way around as in Wisconsin and Kansas where ticket splitters when for a Democratic governor and a republican senator.
Doubts about candidates tipped the scales in tightest races
According to Tarrant County property and tax records, Walker claimed a homestead exemption on his four-bedroom home in Westlake in 2021 and is expected to do so again this year— even after he registered to vote in Georgia last year. Walker has since voted in two elections there...
Everyone knows Walker is a carpetbagger. The question I have come the runoff, will the independents who voted for Warnock by a 53-42 over Walker with 5% voting for Chase Oliver, will independents once again turnout for the runoff? The latest polls for the runoff show Warnock up 50-47 with 3% undecided. Neither is well liked with Warnock at a 46% favorable vs. Walker’s 42% among independents.
Ideology and the letter behind the name. Conservatives vote republican, liberals vote democratic regardless of who the candidates are. Preacher or not, Warnock is seen as forgetting Georgians while Walker is seen as an idiot among a good number of swing voters. I think independents put more stock in who a candidate is than members of either political party. The R and the D is all that matters to them. Hence independents went for Warnock the first time around, viewed as a better person. Partisanship prevails with those of either major party, not so much among independents although you have those indies who lean toward one party or the other.
Warnock problem among Georgians, a good many of them is he ceased listening to them. The term used most is out of touch or forgotten. Walkers problem is that he was Trump chosen. So, neither is well liked. My take on this anyway from what I seen in the polls and a personal point of view. To be well liked by your constituents, you should pay some attention to them. Not shove them off in the closet never to be seen or heard from until election time when you open the door to get their vote. Given a decent Republican candidate, a non-Trumper, he’d have sent Warnock packing. Much like Kemp did to Abrams. Ticket splitting saved Warnock, approximately 200,000 Georgians voted for Kemp, then Warnock.
Warnock problem among Georgians, a good many of them is he ceased listening to them. The term used most is out of touch or forgotten.
How did Warnock "forget" Georgians? Was it that infrastructure bill that Warnock voted for? Or, did Warnock forget Georgia by voting Improved health care for veterans? Perhaps it was the CHIPS and Science Act - to help lower the cost of everyday goods, strengthen American manufacturing and innovation to which Georgians would benefit form.
Curious how Warnock "forget" Georgians.
Originally Posted by perotista
...independents put more stock in who a candidate is than members of either political party. The R and the D is all that matters to them.
I've said that in in another post:
Originally Posted by pdx rick
Independents showed they could actually be independents. Usually they're just closet Repoblicans. This year, they did what they never do in midterms, they came in droves for the party in power...
Originally Posted by perotista
To be well liked by your constituents, you should pay some attention to them. Not shove them off in the closet never to be seen or heard from until election time when you open the door to get their vote..
Did Warnock not hold any town halls? Did Warnock not spend any time in GA?
Warnock spent little time in Georgia and when he did, his townhall meetings were for democrats only. I can’t give you specific incidents, all I can tell you is what Georgians felt. I didn’t save those polls as I felt they were irrelevant at the time.
There’s a big difference between David Scott, my democratic congressman who sends out e-mails and newsletters asking what you think about this issue, legislation proposal, etc and Warnock who the only time I heard from is a ton of junk mail asking for my vote within the last 3 months. Once the runoff is over and if Warnock wins, that’ll be the last I or any other Georgians will ever hear from him until the next election.
You have skin in this game because Warnock is a Democrat, I have none and don’t care who wins as I’m not loyal to any political party. Come to think of it, I do have a bone to pick with my congressman Scott, why the heck hasn’t the House passed the no change in time law the senate has already passed.
For one thing, the Republican Senate back in 2019 picked the wrong time - they picked daylight savings instead of standard time. It should be standard time we are on all year - not DST.
Rick, the house needs to pass the sunshine act in their lame duck session or come next session, it’ll have to be reintroduced and passed by both the house and the senate. All legislation not passed by both chambers before the new session begins on 4 Jan, become null and void, non-existent for the new session. Which one, daylight or standard, I don’t care as long as we stay on one or the other. This is what I e-mailed my congressman David Scott about last night.
Here is a good article on what may happen in the Republican primaries for president in 2024. Although Trump is losing popularity within the Republican Party, his supporters being in charge of many states that set up the rules for the Republican primary in those states, they may be able to amass plenty of delegates through rules changes for Trump. I found it very interesting, in reality it isn’t the popularity of a candidate during the republican candidates who may amass much more popular votes than Trump, it boils down to who makes the rules for the primaries.
Opinion | An Early Clue on Trump’s Republican Support
Here is a good article on what may happen in the Republican primaries for president in 2024. Although Trump is losing popularity within the Republican Party, his supporters being in charge of many states that set up the rules for the Republican primary in those states, they may be able to amass plenty of delegates through rules changes for Trump. I found it very interesting, in reality it isn’t the popularity of a candidate during the republican candidates who may amass much more popular votes than Trump, it boils down to who makes the rules for the primaries.
Opinion | An Early Clue on Trump’s Republican Support
The rules SHOULD be: One man, one vote. Funny how that rankles the losing Republicans so much that they feel compelled to create an entirely new system where, if they don't win, there must be fraud.
This is interesting as it talks about split ticking voters. My home state of Georgia will become the 6th state with huge ticket splitting between governor and senate races.
The way it looks down here, the Republicans are a bit demoralized by their very poor midterm showing. Most thought a red wave was going to happen. That turned out to be a red trickle. The Democrats are energized, independents ho hum and not paying much attention. The Libertarian Chase Oliver voters don’t like Walker, the same as they didn’t like Trump and will most just stay home and not vote. Most of Oliver's votes were protest votes against both major party candidates. So the runoff which is setting records with early voting will be decided which party can get their base out to vote.
We already know which base is voting - it's the Dems. Early voting coincided with the TDay holiday weekend when a lot of folks were off from work and college kids were home.
As I wrote in June, the 2021-22 redistricting cycle didn’t radically change the partisanship of the national House map, so I mostly agree with those who say redistricting didn’t cost Democrats the House. But at the same time, those who say Republicans won only because they gerrymandered are also technically correct. How can both things be true? Allow me to explain." .... Republicans flipped three seats in Florida alone thanks to the extremely GOP-friendly map pushed through by Gov. Ron DeSantis. They also used their control over the Georgia and Tennessee redistricting processes to convert the Democratic-held Georgia 6th and Tennessee 5th into safely red seats.
But Democrats also caught a few bad breaks in states with ostensibly nonpartisan redistricting processes. ... On the other hand, Democrats flipped a few seats thanks to redistricting. .... But we also need to consider seats that didn’t flip but would have if redistricting had not occurred.
I thought the analysis was very helpful and the data informative. As with most such analyses, however, the elephant in the room is ignored: REDMAP. The 2022 maps were analyzed based upon the changes to the 2012 Districts, but those Districts were already dreadfully skewed. Any real analysis should go back further.
In a way it is akin to, and influenced by, the "white privilege" phenomenon. Whites tend to look to the past and say "look where we've come", whereas minorities look at where we are and say "look how far we have to go."
White Republicans, in this case, may not have been as successful in skewing the Districts as in the past, but we are still dealing with the legacy of heavily gerrymandered existing Districts.
As I wrote on another thread, the GOP is going to tap right-wing extremists to lead a group tasked to expand GOP appeal.
Who are they? Kellyanne Conway, evangelical leader Tony Perkins and a pair of Senate candidates who ran this year - Blake Masters being one of them.
Having a liar ...erm, alternative facts teller, a religious zealot who is against a woman's autonomy over her own body, and, who is also very anti-LGBTQ+, plus an election 2020 denier like Blake Masters, it's doubtful this group is going to find ways to expand GOP appeal.
As the election demonstrated, the thread title is essentially correct. On this occasion, Republicans got more votes, but as in other elections, the distribution of voting power was uneven. Some maldistribution is inevitable - geography and demography guarantees that - but digging into the numbers on a granular basis demonstrates it is worse because of gerrymandering. I am prepared, unfortunately, for the inevitable abuse of position that is expected - and already projected - in the 118th Congress. Would that our representatives actually sought to govern rather than position their parties.
...I am prepared, unfortunately, for the inevitable abuse of position that is expected - and already projected - in the 118th Congress...
Rumorhazzit, the next Speaker won't be Kevin McCarthy, but a person who is not currently, nor will be a member of Congress, in January 2023.
The plan is for Republican moderates to take over the Speakership with this outside of Congress, individual, and deny Kevin the job, and therefore, deny the MAGAt crazies positions on various committees.
Interesting concept, which I like, but doesn't make sense.
How would Republicans even control their own caucus if the MAGA-nuts would be against everything a moderate would do? It sounds more like a Democrat would be running their caucus, since a moderate Republican would gather more Democrat votes in support of moderate bills. Conversely if the agenda would be more nutty than current MAGA-nuts indicate, no one would support that agenda.
I think Rep McCarthy, as dumb and dense as he may be, will prevail. He will become a doughy pretzel, easily manipulated and contorted into many unrecognizable shapes, in order to maintain the caucus AND more importantly not lose the MAGA-nuts Base. The BASE is the most important consideration. Without their support no Republican would ever get elected in many states.
You can say what you want about how Trump has lost support, but the bottom line is the BASE is out of the box. They are only controlled by Trump, and they will determine the future of the "Republican" Party.
The plan is for moderate Republicans and Dems to vote together and bypass the MAGAts all together.
The problem that I have with Boehner is that I don't remember him being bi-partisan. I'm pretty sure that he wasn't at the time, but Republican revisionist memory say that he was - so they're trotting him out again is the rumor.
If McCarthy takes over, I predict that the House will do a lot of crazy things that will affect nobody since their bills will not pass the Senate nor Biden's veto. The only bills that could get through to become law will be the essential things (IE. not crazy). They will investigate Hunter a dozen times (2023 version of Benghazi), subpoena a lot of people, impeach Biden a few times, and recommend prosecution by the DOJ of several Democrats which DOJ will ignore as nonsense. All this stuff will harm their chances in 2024 with Independents. Extortion over the debt limit can only hurt them even worse.
It will be interesting to see if a few of the more MAGA ones get booted out of office by the 14th Amendment. That might have the effect of making the House more moderate overall. Since reps are replaced by special elections, Democrats could actually win their seats if they are obnoxious enough.
According to CNN, the House elections are final. 222 Republicans vs 213 Democrats. The exact reversal of the previous house when it was 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans. That’s a net gain of 9 seats for the GOP. Again, making Greger the one who came the closest when he predicted 11 seat gain for the GOP.
The question is does CNN have their numbers right? CNN has the Republicans flipping or gaining 19 previously held Democratic seats while the Democrats gained or flipped, switched 6 previously held Republican seats. That’s a net gain of 13 for the Republicans. 213 previously held Republican seats plus 13 net gain, (19-6) equals 226 not 222. Something to contemplate when the numbers don’t add up.
The plan to install a non-member of Congress as Speaker continues to have legs. Politico is reporting that retiring Congressman Fred Upton (R-MI) is the current rumored name. The goal is to deny Kevin McCarthy Speakership and the MAGAts chairman positions on the House committees.
I've never heard of Fred Upton, so I did a little googling.
Turns out, Upton, first elected in 1986, is one of the longest-tenured Republicans in the House. He previously chaired the House Energy and Commerce Committee and garnered a reputation for working with members across the aisle.
Quote
"He treats everyone equally, doesn't matter if there's a 'D' or 'R' next to your name," - Rep. Tony Cárdenas, D-Calif.,
The only disappointing 2022 midterm election me is that Tim Ryan lost his race.
It says a lot that the GOP spent tens of millions trying to elect a carpetbagging CTE victim in Georgia - and the GOP has no shame in doing so. Because those are the values of today’s GOP.
The next task is for the moderate GOP and Dems to unite in electing a bipartisan Speaker.
The only disappointing 2022 midterm election me is that Tim Ryan lost his race.
It says a lot that the GOP spent tens of millions trying to elect a carpetbagging CTE victim in Georgia - and the GOP has no shame in doing so. Because those are the values of today’s GOP.
The next task is for the moderate GOP and Dems to unite in electing a bipartisan Speaker.
Heh, define "bipartisan", and I ask because I can't parse that term when looking at the field of today's Republicans in Congress, not because I doubt your internal definition of the term. I'm saying "rotsa ruck" because it's slim pickings.
Is Joe Manchin a "moderate" or is MTG?
Yes, I do realize that anyone can be made Speaker, literally ANYONE.
The plan to install a non-member of Congress as Speaker continues to have legs. Politico is reporting that retiring Congressman Fred Upton (R-MI) is the current rumored name. The goal is to deny Kevin McCarthy Speakership and the MAGAts chairman positions on the House committees.
I've never heard of Fred Upton, so I did a little googling.
Turns out, Upton, first elected in 1986, is one of the longest-tenured Republicans in the House. He previously chaired the House Energy and Commerce Committee and garnered a reputation for working with members across the aisle.
Quote
"He treats everyone equally, doesn't matter if there's a 'D' or 'R' next to your name," - Rep. Tony Cárdenas, D-Calif.,
The plan to install a non-member of Congress as Speaker continues to have legs. Politico is reporting that retiring Congressman Fred Upton (R-MI) is the current rumored name. The goal is to deny Kevin McCarthy Speakership and the MAGAts chairman positions on the House committees.
I've never heard of Fred Upton, so I did a little googling.
Turns out, Upton, first elected in 1986, is one of the longest-tenured Republicans in the House. He previously chaired the House Energy and Commerce Committee and garnered a reputation for working with members across the aisle.
Quote
"He treats everyone equally, doesn't matter if there's a 'D' or 'R' next to your name," - Rep. Tony Cárdenas, D-Calif.,
I like this and I could live with this.
I know, and yes, you DID define it. I'm sensing the continuing mood in the House GOP and how it affects a person like Upton's chances.
When other countries form a coalition government, you’re talking 3 or more viable parties which have seats in their parliament. Here, we have two parties with no other party to form a coalition with. In other countries, the party with the most members usually doesn’t have enough seats to make a majority, 50% plus 1, thus making it a must to form a coalition with other parties to get to a majority.
Having said that, you do have 213 democrats, all that would be needed is 5 moderate republicans so fed up with Trumpism that they’d unite with the democrats. But would those 5 moderate republicans be willing to give the speakership to a democrat? Maybe to a outside man? There’s no requirement the speaker must be a member of the House.
The Democrats accomplished a lot with but 222 members in the house. They were united. The Republicans are disunited. McCarthy will be challenged by a Trumper. It may be a long while before the house can achieve the 218 votes needed to pick the next speaker. Even if McCarthy finally makes it as speaker, he’ll be beholding to Trumpers like MTG.
You have 2 major parties, the Republican and Democratic Parties. Now you have different factions/wings within each party. Calling the MAGA faction and the moderate faction within the Republican Party two different political parties is the same as call the Progressives and moderate Democrats within the Democratic Party two different political parties. Thus in your way of thinking that’s 4 political parties.
The exit polls for the runoff hasn’t been published yet. But it seems many more Republicans voted than democrats, only a bunch of them voted for Warnock over Walker. The Article goes into much more detail.
Here in Georgia, Trump gets the blame for losing our two Republican senate seats back in 2021 runoff. Trump’s, your vote won’t count campaign. Then Trump comes up with a dunce to run for the senate in Walker. I do think here in Georgia there’s probably more anti-Trump Republicans than in any other state. It wasn’t turnout that that cost Walker to be defeated.
From the article which I agree with.
In state after state, the final turnout data shows that registered Republicans turned out at a higher rate — and in some places a much higher rate — than registered Democrats, including in many of the states where Republicans were dealt some of their most embarrassing losses.
Instead, high-profile Republicans like Herschel Walker in Georgia or Blake Masters in Arizona lost because Republican-leaning voters decided to cast ballots for Democrats, even as they voted for Republican candidates for U.S. House or other down-ballot races in their states.
Georgia is a fine example. While Walker may blame turnout for his poor showing in November and earlier this week, other Republican candidates seemed to have no problem at all. Gov. Brian Kemp won by nearly 8 points over Stacey Abrams; Republican candidates for House won the most votes on the same day.
Yet Sen. Raphael Warnock won in Georgia anyway because a large group of voters willing to back other Republicans weren’t willing to back Walker.
...just as abortion brought out the Dems this midterm and stemmed the red tide, Clarence Thomas ran his big, bigoted, mouth and got gay-marriage codified.
I love it when Rwingers shoot themselves in the foot.
You’re still on the abortion kick. Fact is more Republicans turned out to vote than Democrats. Only a lot of Republicans voted against Trump chosen candidates along with independents while voting for non-Trump chosen candidates. Quite a lot of ticket splitters. At least 5 million of them in November, voting against Trump chosen candidates and then voting for non-Trump chosen Republican candidates. No exit polls on the Georgia senate runoff yet between Walker and Warnock.
Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It's Just That Many of Them Didn't Vote for Republicans.
I agree that the Republicans do have the uncanny ability to lose winnable elections. PA, NV, GA, NH, AZ are senate races that come to mind right off the bat. In the past, candidates like Murdock, Aiken, Miller, extreme right lost very winnable elections. I believe that republicans are more interested in making a statement than winning in the general election. That’s their problem.
I’d say those 27% who thinks abortion was their most important issue were already democrats and Democratic voters. You noticed they didn’t list independents, which made up 31% of those who voted. Just Republicans and Democrats. So, this is how 69% of those who voted listed their most important issue. Not 100%. Which goes back to my statement that abortion was already baked in. But if you want to believe abortion was the defining issue, feel free to do so. I’ve provided all sorts of numbers to prove abortion was already baked in, no need to beat that dead horse.
What’s also interesting is 51% of all Americans think the Democratic Party is too extreme, 52% say the Republican is too extreme.
Personally, I think there is a shift on. It will probably take the rest of the decade to see the results, but I think Democrats are picking up adherents, and Republicans are losing them. Unfortunately, geography, demographics, and judicial politics will all still play an outsized role in the makeup of the Congress, and the Electoral College results. We're still poised on a knife's edge regarding the continued insurrection.
Then we have the continuing agitation of Trump, Musk and Fuentes, MT Greene, Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, and Paul Gosar, among many others. I've seen a lot of reich-wing activity online, and it is becoming extremely unsubtle. They don't even hide their animosities anymore. They have allies in Congress and the media, and have been stockpiling weapons.
"Right-wing armed groups won’t disappear after inauguration, even as they pose a bigger threat to U.S. democracy and rule of law than any organized crime group, and have killed more Americans in recent years than foreign terrorists. The threat of such groups and their political cooptation by Trump’s political supporters will persist long into the Biden administration. Countering this must be a high priority." How to counter right-wing armed groups in the United States (Brookings)
So, it really is coming down to democracy vs. autocracy, and we need to play to win.
"Right-wing armed groups won’t disappear after inauguration, even as they pose a bigger threat to U.S. democracy and rule of law than any organized crime group, and have killed more Americans in recent years than foreign terrorists. The threat of such groups and their political cooptation by Trump’s political supporters will persist long into the Biden administration. Countering this must be a high priority." How to counter right-wing armed groups in the United States (Brookings)
So, it really is coming down to democracy vs. autocracy, and we need to play to win.
Democrats, make peace with the 2A and if possible, arm yourselves.
Are we looking at the same exit polls? The 11th question down is Work full-time? Condition of the nation's economy is the 4th question down followed by Party ID. Most important issue to your vote is question 56 down. Right below Confident your state's elections are fair/accurate? And right above Democracy in the U.S. is:
Your link goes to the same CNN exit polls as mine. I’m at a lost.
I still think those who listed abortion as their top issue were already Democrats and Democratic leaning independents. In other words, abortion already backed into the equation. I think the number one reason for the democrats excellent showing was Trump and his choice of very poor quality candidates like Walker, Oz, Mastriano, Laxalt, Cox, Diehl, Bolduc, Tshibaka, Lake, Masters and more which a majority of independents disliked and thought them all as extremist. But this is okay, I blame the poor showing of Republicans this midterm on Trump, you can say it was abortion. Whatever the cause, the Republican Party has started their job of ditching Trump. I think that speaks volumes on who and what they blame for the midterm election results.
Anti-Trump Republicans Grow Louder: 'He's Less Relevant All the Time'
I also think it’s important that Republicans who view Trump very favorable, in other words the way I read this, avid Trumpers has dropped from 65% in January down to 41% today.
Surprising after 3 straight election losses. I think not. I just wonder what took them so long to figure out Trump is an albatross around the Republican Party’s neck.
Yes we’re looking at the same poll. I referenced the wrong question It's question 30. The poll also suggests that a lot of new voters came to the midterm to vote - mostly Democrats - which according to question 30, was because of abortion.
This is exactly what NPR had been saying all along leading up to the election.
...there is evidence that the demographic change spurred by Republicans’ and Democrats’ divergent responses to the pandemic likely cost Republicans a number of key seats in the 2022 midterms. And the fallout, fueled by cross-country migration and even the Covid death toll, could linger into 2024 and beyond.
...
Data from the U.S. Postal Service and Census Bureau shows how the pandemic drove urban professionals who were able to work remotely — disproportionately Democrats — out of coastal, progressive cities to seek more space or recreational amenities in the nation’s suburbs and Sun Belt. This moved liberals out of electoral districts where Democrats reliably won by large margins into many purple regions that had the potential to swing with just small changes to the map.
And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts. And pollsters were none the wiser.
The bottom line is there was not one singular event or action that caused the red wave to fizzle - it was many smaller events and actions which added up to a big rally against Republican candidates and their agenda.
I agree with that Rick. The fall in the price of a gallon of gas had a lot to do with it. Trump choosing non-electable candidates like Walker, Diehl, Cox, Oz, Masters, Lake, Laxult and more also had a lot to do with it. Abortion probably persuaded a few independents to vote democratic, only 4% of independents listed abortion as their top tissue. There’s more, but I think you’re right on.
How about instead of calling it a red trickle, we call it a blue trickle. After all the democrats gained a senate seat and 2 governors while limiting their losses in the house to 9 seats. Compare that to the historical averages, which will have to be reworked for a president hovering around 40% overall job approval of 48.5 house seats lost, 6 senate seats and 4.25 governorships. We should start calling this a blue trickle.
I said on this site that this was coming. I think the civil war within the GOP began after Nov midterm, but has begun to pick up steam after the Georgia runoff. It’s a battle between avid Trumpers only interested in Trump and getting him nominated again, what I call MAGA statement Republicans. A battle between these Trumpers and more moderate, intelligent Republicans interested in winning elections, not making statements. These latter Republicans know Trump can’t win and if 2022 is a prime example, his chosen candidates can’t either. Almost all went down to defeat.
Republicans fear Trump civil war could cost them in 2024
Exactly Rick. Trump’s MAGA Republicans are losing power within the GOP. They’re in the minority today at 39% of the GOP. But they’re still the largest faction of many factions within the GOP.
And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts.
Like I said quite a while back, gerrymandering districts so you have a 5% advantage fails spectacularly when demographics change the voting so you need 6% to win. A lot of those engineered 5% districts go to the other side. Gerrymandering assumes static demographics for 10 years. Not happening here in America now. And they got the triple-whammy of educated professionals working from home in Red states, conservative anti-vaxers and anti-maskers dying, and over a million elderly voters dying from Covid-19.
Here’s how all Americans view the two major parties and some history. Keep in mind the favorable/unfavorable ratings are dynamic and change constantly.
The bottom line, I’ve gone over hundreds of these, you find the bases of both major parties always view their party favorably usually in the mid to upper 90 percentile while the other party views the opposite party in single digits. At least since G.W. Bush’s second term. Independents usually view both major parties around 30% favorable which isn’t surprising. They for the most part don’t like partisan politics. Independents think both major parties should work together to get things done, compromise, play the old game of give and take and not stand on principle. It’s also independents, 75% of them want a viable third party. They’re sick of the two party monopoly as they view both major parties as governing only for their base and not for all of America.
And because partisan gerrymanderers carved up new districts before the extent of pandemic mobility data was understood, they could not neutralize the population shifts.
Like I said quite a while back, gerrymandering districts so you have a 5% advantage fails spectacularly when demographics change the voting so you need 6% to win. A lot of those engineered 5% districts go to the other side. Gerrymandering assumes static demographics for 10 years. Not happening here in America now. And they got the triple-whammy of educated professionals working from home in Red states, conservative anti-vaxers and anti-maskers dying, and over a million elderly voters dying from Covid-19.
Gerrymandering has obvious political effects, but it can also have economic consequences. One 2018 study found that partisan redistricting impacts people’s ability to borrow money. The less competitive a district was, the less access to credit a person living in that district would have.
Significantly skewed maps in states like Texas, Georgia, Florida and Ohio, which many people thought going in might be greater than the majority that Republicans would have in the House. And that seems to have been borne out. Florida, for example, probably gives Republicans four extra seats than they would have under a fairly drawn map. And so if, in fact, Republicans have a very thin majority in the House, it is likely to be due to gerrymandering.
I espcially like now it will take one fifth of the house and one fifth of the senate to challenge any states slate of electors instead of just one house member and one senate member. It also spells out the VP role is purely ceremonial. THe VP just presides over the counting of the electoral votes, that's all.
The Electoral Count Act also only allows a state’s governor or another designated official to submit electoral results.
Additionally, the law allows the General Services Administration to release transition funds to both candidates if neither has issued a concession five days after the election. It would, however, nix funds to the losing candidate once the result of the election was determined.
A provision of the law strikes a nearly 200-year-old law that state legislatures could use to nullify the popular vote by declaring a “failed election,” noting that the term has never been specifically defined.
Senators across the political spectrum said they want to slam the door on the notation that Pence had the authority to throw out a state’s slate of electors, which could open the door for future vice presidents to attempt to interfere with the Electoral College’s vote.
Trump argued on Truth Social, his social media platform, that the 1887 Electoral Count Act should be left the way it is “in case of Fraud.”
Quote
What I don’t like are the lies and ‘disinformation’ put out by the Democrats and RINOs. They said the vice president has ‘absolutely no choice,’ it was carved in ‘steel,’ but if he has no choice, why are they changing the law saying he has no choice?” - Donald Trump
The sooner that orange clown expires, the sooner America will be better off.
Rick, to me this is all very weird. By that I mean the Constitution in plain English states, “The President of the senate shall, in the presence of the senate and the house of representatives, open all certificates, and the votes shall be counted.”
That seems pretty cut and dried to me. No authority to change anything or even challenge anything if one goes by the plain English the Constitution is written in. All that can be done is to count the electoral votes from each state. I realize the 1872 electoral college act was to enhance or clarify what the constitution stated. But was clarification needed? The VP or president of the senate according to the Constitution has no authority to change anything, just count. Are challenges to the certificates sent to congress constitutional by members of congress? If all that can be done is the counting, I’d say no.
The question is, am I missing something here. It all seems cut and dried. That is if one goes by what is written in the Constitution in plain English. Now I don’t speak lawyerese, so what is written in plain English may not be what lawyerese says what is written and could be something completely different that what plain English states.
The question is, would ANY of this, the attempt to refuse to certify, to set aside, even the insurrection, be allowed by Republicans if the Democrats had done it.
Would it go unpunished? Would the SCOTUS rule in favor of the "Evil Version of Joe Biden" if he stood atop the podium and announced a march to the Capitol to "stop the steal"?
Rick, to me this is all very weird. By that I mean the Constitution in plain English states, “The President of the senate shall, in the presence of the senate and the house of representatives, open all certificates, and the votes shall be counted.”
That seems pretty cut and dried to me.
Clearly some Republicans, Donald Trump especially, can't process what they read and need another interpretation of what the first statement said.
Independents ended up voting for the Democrats by a 49-47 margin. Almost a wash. There was a huge difference in how independents voted for Trump chosen candidates and non-Trump chosen candidates. Some examples – New Hampshire non-Trump Sununu 57% Trump chosen Bolduc 44%. Georgia Non-Trump Kemp 54%, Trump chosen Walker 48%, Kansas non-trump Moran 60%, Trump chosen Schmidt 40%, Ohio Non-Trump chosen DeWine 63%, Trump chosen Vance 53%. Vance won, but received 10 points less votes than non-Trumper DeWine and so it goes in states where comparisons can be made. Non-Trump chosen candidates on average received 10 points, higher percentage of the vote than Trump chosen candidates which most lost.
The moral here is voters had no problem voting for non-Trumpers but drew the line in voting for Trump chosen candidates. I’ll add Alaska where Trump enemy Murkowski defeated Trump chosen Tshibaka as did Trump enemy Kemp win handily, but Trump chosen Walker lost. I would say for independents, who the candidates were mattered quite a lot.
I’ll give you credit Rick, just being an alternative to the Democrat wasn’t enough. What mattered more was whether or not the candidate was Trump chosen. Independents even if they disliked the Democrat still wouldn’t vote for a Trump chosen candidate. Georgia is a prime example of that, 56% of all Georgians disapproved of the job Warnock did, yet reelected him over Trump chosen Walker. Independents voted for Republican Kemp for governor, a Trump enemy, but voted for Warnock over Republican chosen Walker. Interesting election. Which I think proved two things, Trump is an albatross around the Republican’s neck when it comes to winning the independent vote. 2. Trump was the biggest asset this midterm that the democrats had going for them. Especially when it came to the independent vote.
What all of this explains is Non-Trump Republican candidates for the most part won the independent vote, Trump chosen Republican candidates lost the independent vote. Which makes the Republicans fools for listening to Trump and nominating his chosen candidates if they wanted to win elections. Republicans won't win elections as long as Trump is around. That's good news for the Democrats.
Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.
So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.
As the red and blue trend lines of the closely watched RealClearPolitics average for the contest drew closer together, news organizations reported that Ms. Murray was suddenly in a fight for her political survival. Warning lights flashed in Democratic war rooms. If Ms. Murray was in trouble, no Democrat was safe.
Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats
For much of 2022, i argued with pollists that common sense tells us that the polls were inaccurate. Basing opinions and predictions solely on polling, while disregarding intuition, common sense and observation, leads to credibility issues for the pollists, in my opinion.
Naturally Rwingers were behind these false polls. The modern Rwinger will lie, cheat, in order to steal an election. They then foment an insurrection when they lose. To say that political Rwingers are emotionalluy unwell is an understatement.
As stories began to surface after the 2022 mid-term, the only voter fraud committed was by Republicans - the party that accuses Dems of voter fraud.
In psychology, there is a phenomena called projection. Projection is when someone accuses others of doing the behavior that they accuser does him/herself. Donald Trump is the most famous projectionist.
Now that the 2022 mid-terms are in the rearview mirror, analysis of the election is trickling out. This is what we know to be true about the election:
Republicans and the media were focused on pundits and polls saying that history, inflation, gas prices and Biden's approval rating would sink the Democrats.
As things turned out, the Democrats did very well, historically speaking, for a party that holds the White House. They picked up a seat in the Senate and held all but one of their own governorships while flipping three (there are now 24 Democratic governors), and only giving up 10 House seats. Kevin McCarthy predicted a 60-seat pickup.
The notion that Joe Biden's popularity would be a key factor.
Nope, dead wrong. A president's approval rating has become a long-outmoded measure.
"GOP-inflected" polling pushed by right-wing media.
There were many problems of poll aggregation, especially when it relies on overtly partisan polls. Who even came close to calling this outcome? The staff at FiveThirtyEight? Real Clear Politics? Other pollsters? No. Michael Moore did.
As more or less a political strategist and forecaster, I found this very interesting. I’ll give you the bottom line, then if you like you can take a closer look at the poll/article for a lot more information.
Bottom Line Given that Americans’ political ideology is not prone to sudden shifts, the stability seen in 2022 is not surprising. But it masks the continuation of an important long-term trend, which is increased liberalism among Democrats that has been slowly pushing the percentage of liberals higher nationally. The four-point uptick in liberal identification among Democrats in 2022 was not enough to move the U.S. rate, in part because the percentage of Democrats in the population declined. However, it sets the stage for expanding liberalism nationally in future years.
At the same time, conservatism seems to have leveled off among Republicans while the ideological preferences of moderates have long been steady, suggesting future national shifts will continue to depend on changes among Democrats.
The poll/article
Democrats' Identification as Liberal Now 54%, a New High
As more or less a political strategist and forecaster, I found this very interesting. I’ll give you the bottom line, then if you like you can take a closer look at the poll/article for a lot more information. .... Democrats' Identification as Liberal Now 54%, a New High
If it were not for progressives, we would all still be sitting around a fire in some cave waiting for the next meal. People willing to adapt to evolutionary changes in technologies, philosophies, and society has brought us to this day whether good bad or ugly. If you want to go back in time ... be my guest ... just don't drag down in the hole you're in.
As I was going trough the article, my foremost thought was, "What do the respondents think the labels actually represent?"
It is my long held observation that, when asked to connect the various political labels to real policy, social, economic, environmental, etc. definitions, most people have no reality-based idea. It's more of a tribal or sports team affinity thing - perhaps more about dislike of others than reality. Within the labelled groups themselves there is a wide, and and often personally transient, range of ideas about what a Conservative or Liberal or Independent political ideology is. In simplest form, the Other is just bad, no matter what. (Jordan Klepper has shown us that in grand fashion)
This perverse understanding is especially true of the Progressive label - my own experience with it was in the late 90's when a group of local activists (me included) got together to define an alternative to "Liberal", which the right had corrupted (ConROT-wise) into meaning something that none of us were to any meaningful extent. We spent a good deal of time discussing the art of framing (can't remember the name of the guy at the time who had gotten well-known for formularizing framing techniques) - both from the position of avoiding our "new" party getting trashed through framing, and also how to get ahead of opposition framing by framing them first. After multiple meetings, we decided to call ourselves Progressives - as it happened, the same thing was happening all over the country, so our label (and its specific definition) was lost from its inception to the chaotic seas of fellow travelers. Not long after, the Conservatives successfully framed it as bad, and there was no resistance.
As it happens, righties seem to be much more adept at corrupting information than lefties are. So the Gallup poll, in my assessment, is meaningless in terms of real ideological thinking, but very accurate in terms of which tribe people have been convinced to side with - which happens to be largely an effect of dishonest sales campaigns (political framing).
I recognize Perot's knowledge and facility with assessing and predicting how elections are likely to go, based on the realities of people generally being dupes of framing and not based on clear thinking. This is the reality of the human condition.
What I am interested in is understanding and creating solutions for that unfortunate human condition of sleepwalking through life, that is eating up the Earth and shitting out chaos and destruction.
My fundamental definitions for the Cons and the Libs?
Conservatives - selfish and stupid, with little consideration of the Other.
Liberals - selfish and stupid, with a nagging conscience about the welfare of the Whole.
I agree that the progressive label is relatively new. Teddy Roosevelt used the progressive label and then it fell out of use until recently. My idea of a conservative goes back to Barry Goldwater and his brand of Traditional conservatism. Liberalism of a more classical type to JFK. Of course, I grew up during Eisenhower, at least he’s the first president I’ve had personally experienced although I was born during Truman right after WWII. Today, neither political party falls into my definition of conservatism or liberalism. The meanings have changed from the time I formed what each was, later 50’s and early 60’s.
When describing my politics, I usually say I’m a Goldwater conservative with some of Ross Perot thrown in. Which probably means nothing today. What I would say it means probably would be being social liberal while being fiscal responsible witch has nothing at all to do with being fiscal conservative which fiscal conservatives are fiscal at all. One of the tenets of being a traditional conservative is that government should stay out of a citizen’s private business and lives. What does that mean today, abortion, it means the woman decides, not government. Gay rights and marriage let love decide, not government. That every American regardless of race, religion, gender and anything else one might think of has the same rights and liberties, no discrimination. Basically, what people today would be classified as a social liberal.
There’s more, but I won’t bore you as you mentioned the tribal aspect. Meanings today don’t have the same meanings as they once had or as I view them. Each of us attaches a meaning they want to conservatism, liberalism, progressivism, libertarianism, socialism and all other ism’s.
You make it sound as if your beliefs on social issues and a liberals beliefs on social issues are separate and distinct i.e. non-intersecting Venn circles. The reality is they are the same. The only difference now is liberal/progressives still maintain those same beliefs while conservatives who once held those beliefs no longer do. Witness Gov De Santos. He once touted his small government creds, but now he promotes the full weight of government to interfere not only in citizens personal lives but in private business as well. And he is not alone. Where once Republicans believed states should regulate regarding social issues, now at the Federal level these same Republicans want to enact laws which abrogate those states rights and interfere in Citizens personal lives.
Glad I don't have to deal with the dissonance these characters create for their constituents.
Trends on the movement of States: Blue to Red or Red to Blue
There has been movement from 2000-2023 for the states from red to blue or blue to red. Below is the movement based on PVI, Partisan Voting Index along with their number of electoral votes for the 2024 presidential election.
Arizona from an R+6 down to an R+2. Moving blue. 11 electoral votes Florida from R+1 to a R+3 getting slightly redder. 30 electoral votes Georgia from a R+10 down to an R+3 Moving blue 16 electoral votes Michigan from a D+6 to a R+1 Moving Red 15 electoral votes Minnesota from a D+10 down to a D+1 moving Red 10 electoral votes Nevada from D+3 to R+1 Moving Red 6 electoral votes North Carolina from an R+13 down to a R+3 moving blue 16 electoral votes Ohio From an R+4 up to an R+6 Becoming more red 17 electoral votes Pennsylvania from D+4 to R+2 moving red 19 electoral votes Texas from an R+20 down to an R+5 moving blue 40 electoral votes Wisconsin from a D+10 to a R+2 moving red 10 electoral votes
Interesting to note some southern states trending blue, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas with Florida being the exception as it is trending redder. States from the Midwest, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin are turning red with Ohio getting redder. Out west Nevada is trending red while Arizona is trending blue.
I don’t know how many of you keep track of these things, but government/poor leadership has regained its spot as this nation’s number one problem with inflation falling to number two.
More Cite Gov't as Top U.S. Problem; Inflation Ranks Second
Both major parties rate government/poor leadership as this nation’s number one problem, 24% of Republicans, 18% of democrats. The graph for party division is further down in the article/poll.
Buttigieg leading the Dems with DeSantis leading the Reps. DeSantis I expected would be the leader, Buttigieg was a surprise. NH by no means comes close to representing America, but the Republicans are still keeping Iowa and NH as 1, 2 in their primaries for 2024 whereas the Dems will lead off with SC, then NV & NH followed by GA and MI.
Most polls for the last election were within the MOE, margin of error. You sound like the Trumpers after 2016 and going into 2020. The polls were wrong, the polls were wrong. It's just few know how to read them. The polls predicted the GOP would win the congressional popular vote by a 2.5 margin, they won it by 2.8. You can’t get any closer than that. There was a margin of error with the 2.5 predicted margin of +5.5 to a low of -0.5 when adding the MOE which all polls have of usually plus or minus 3 points. Being only off by 0.3 of a single point is outstanding.
Red Wave, the Republican never lead in the generic congressional ballot by the plus 8 or more that would have predicted that. The most the Republicans lead by was 4.8 points back on 28 April. Which would roughly equate to a 20-seat house gain plus one senate seat. That’s still at least 10 seats off from what would qualify as a wave election. A wave election is the party out of power, not in control regaining control with a net gain of 30 plus seats. As late as 25 September the Democrats had an 0.3-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. That would equate to a 50-50 chance of the Democrats retaining control of the House. Then the Republicans regained the lead and finished with a 2.5-point lead over the Democrats. Roughly forecasting a net gain for the GOP of 10-15 seats. They gained 9. Again, that is about as close as one is going to get.
If you don’t trust the polls, that fine. But the polls had it right in 2022. Commentators on Fox didn’t as Fox was just telling their viewership what their viewers wanted to hear. What Fox was basing their red wave predictions on, I haven’t a clue. It certainly wasn’t the polls.
“Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did … and the reality is that they did pretty well.
While some polling firms badly missed the mark, in the aggregate the polls had one of their most accurate cycles in recent history.”
I may be almost the only one saying this, but numbers speak for themselves. The polls were pretty accurate. It was the talking heads and their stupid red wave speculation that wasn’t. They had no numbers to back them up.
If you don’t believe cold hard numbers, there’s nothing I can do. Perception becomes reality, especially when one hears it over and over, one comes to believe their perception, true or not. it. I’ll leave it as that.
The polls didn’t as I showed you in cold hard numbers. For a wave election to happen the party out of power must have at least a plus 8 advantage in the generic. The largest GOP lead occurred in April of 2022 at 4.7 points. That’s 3.3 points below the minimum needed to forecast a wave election. The Democrats grabbed a 1-point lead in September which would forecast a wash type election. Either party gaining or losing somewhere between 1-5 seats. The Republicans regained the lead and finished with a 2.5-point lead. Which would indicate somewhere around 15 seats give or take a seat or two. Hence my own forecast of 13 seats, Greger’s 11 and your’s with the Democrats retaining control.
You can scroll down to the graph and further down you can see all the polls. None of us here came close to forecasting a red wave election. I have concluded the political talking heads are full of it. I think it was a case of these talking heads telling their viewers what they wanted to happen than what the polls were actually stating. Which doesn’t surprise me one bit. We’ve talked about this a lot during the final months leading up to the midterms, everyone agreed that there would be no red wave. Yet here you are jumping on the red wave bandwagon. Even yourself didn’t predict a red wave. Why now?
Which simply means I view DeSantis as a threat to whoever is the Democratic nominee for 2024. Trump isn’t a threat at all as he would in my opinion if he is the GOP nominee help the Democrats retain the senate and regain the house.
The only poll that I need to know: The majority of Americans are good decent people and don't vote Republican as evidenced by the number of votes each POTUS candidate has received in the past 25 years.
LOL, last year’s midterm more Americans voted Republican than Democratic. 54,506,136 to 51,477,313. Not presidential, but folks still vote Republican. In 2016 51.8% of Americans voted against Hillary Clinton, she did receive more votes than Trump, but that was forecasted in the polls.
Bush received 62,040,610 votes to Kerry’s 59,028,444, 50.7%, so most Americans voted for Bush. Bush received 500,000 less votes than Gore in 2000 true. Gore received 48.4% of the vote, so most Americans voted against him. Same for Bill Clinton in 1992, he also had most Americans voting against him.
I’d say it all depends on the candidates, especially today since independents, swing voters now make up 42% of the electorate. While the Republican Party has chugged along at an average of 27%, going up and down 3-4 points since Eisenhower, it’s been the Democratic Party that has shrunk. From 50% of the electorate in 1960, those who identified or affiliated themselves with the Democratic Party to 45% in 1980, down to 35% in 2000, to 30% today. Only 58% of all Americans now identify with both major party where it was 80% back in 1960 and as high as 70% in 2006. 2006 was the year in which independents began to skyrocket to the 42% Gallup states are independents today. Which simply means there’s a whole lot of people out there dissatisfied with both major parties. So much so, they have deserted them to become swing voters.
We’ve entered an era where independents, swing voters decide elections, not neither major party. Both major parties decide their nominees, a lot of times swing voters dislike both major party candidates which they end up voting for the candidate they least want to lose, not win, but least want to lose. I call these folks the anti-voters, those who vote against a candidate or party, but not for any candidate or party. Biden won these anti-voters 68-30 over Trump in 2020. These folks voted against Trump, not for Biden. Anyone not named Trump would have done. Trump won this group of anti-voters in 2016 which gave him his big wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. When one adds those, who voted third party to the anti-voters in 2016, you had 32% of the electorate voting against a candidate, be that Trump or Clinton, not voting for any candidate, just against. Such is today’s modern political era.
I was going over the favorable/unfavorable ratings of several politicians. I’ve always believed what these elected officials are thought of nationally is irrelevant. It’s what the people, voters think of them in their district or state that counts. Nationally, no one can vote these people out of office or reelect them except the folks who live in their district or state.
Nationally Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 32/43 favorable/unfavorable Kyrsten Sinema 21/33 favorable/unfavorable Marjorie Taylor Greene 28/40 favorable/unfavorable Mitt Romney 34/45 favorable/unfavorable George Santos 17/52 favorable/unfavorable Ron DeSantis 41/35 favorable/unfavorable Nikki Haley 34/28 favorable/unfavorable Joe Biden 44/51 favorable/unfavorable Kamala Harris 40/50 favorable/unfavorable Kevin McCarthy 33/41 favorable/unfavorable Mitch McConnell 25/56 favorable/unfavorable Chuck Schumer 33/43 favorable/unfavorable Hakeem Jeffries28/28 favorable/unfavorable Donald Trump 40/55 favorable/unfavorable
It seems a lot of these folks, elected officials are unknown by many nationally. Which may explain why DeSantis, Haley are viewed positively, Jeffries is a wash at 28-28, but everyone else is viewed negatively by all Americans. Some more than others.
But again, does it really matter what all of America thinks of these people? There’s nothing any of them can do about them unless they can vote for or against them. This doesn’t apply to Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis, Haley who either are or might be running for national office, the presidency. These few I think what all of America thinks of them is important. These rest, no.
I received a report from Gallup on Biden’s overall job approval, currently at 42%. That got me thinking, in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship, does a president’s overall job approval mean much if anything in today’s modern political era? Especially considering the results of the 2022 midterms. First, let’s look at previous presidents prior to what I term is today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. Comparting a president’s overall job approval to the job approval the opposing party or the party that is out of power.
Bill Clinton 55% overall average job approval, from Republicans 32% average job approval G.H.W. Bush 61% overall average job approval, from Democrats 45% average job approval Reagan 53% overall average job approval, from Democrats 40% average job approval Carter 46% overall average job approval, from Republicans 31% average job approval
Approximately a third of the opposite party approved of the job the president was doing. Now the ratings for today’s modern political era ratings beginning in 2004 which I think is the time today’s modern political begin.
2004-08 G.W. Bush Overall job approval average 37%, from Democrats 8%, from Republicans 85%, from independents 32% 2009-2016 Obama overall job approval average 47%, from Democrats 85%, from Republicans 9%, from independents 46% 2017-2020 Trump overall job approval average 41%, from Democrats 6%, from Republicans 90%, from independents 37% 2021-today Biden overall job approval average 44%, from Democrats 86%, from Republicans 5%, from independents 41%
What stands out here is the opposing party approval of any of the above presidents is in the single digits. That’s a far cry from the average third of the opposing party approving a president’s job performance pre-modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship.
You can make of this what you will. I think what this means in today’s modern political era is a president’s overall job approval will always be 5-10 points lower than what it was previously or prior to today’s modern political era. Biden is sitting at 44% overall job approval today, that job approval would be at 50% or so in the previous political era in my opinion. This modern political era means many other things besides a sitting president being shortchanged on his job approval numbers. Many other and more important things, but those can be addressed later if need be or wanted.
A while back I posted on this site a list of states, blue states trending red, red states trending blue. Several of the state’s blacks are moving out of are on my blue states trending red, some of the red states trending blue are the states the blacks are moving to. Make of this what you will.
Democrats: Why in the Hell Are Black People Moving to Red States?
Also interesting when it comes to the black vote is how the percentage of blacks voting republican has increased with each election since 2008. The percentage of blacks who voted Republican in 2008 4%, 2012 6%, 2016, 8%, 2020 12%, 2022 13%. This is a small trend taking its time, but a trend, nonetheless. Hispanics have also increased their percentage voting republican since 2012, from 27% to 39% in 2022.
Interestingly since Kemp is mentioned in the Article, he received 13% of the black vote, 43% of the Hispanic vote while running against Stacy Abrams, a black woman who he defeated by 8 points. DeSantis in Florida matched Kemp with 13% of the black vote, 13% was the national average for 2022. He did even better among Hispanics receiving 58% of their vote. Way above the national average of 39%. Compare those votes to New York where only 6% of blacks voted republican along with 22% or Hispanics. Texas was also interesting, 15% of blacks voted for Abbot, 43% of Hispanics did also. Above the national average.
Could be, but the migration seems to have boiled down to bread, butter and roofing issues. That was stated in the article. In other words, supporting black lives matter or defund the police means little if that doesn’t put a roof over your head and food on the table. This from the article.
In those cities, the cost of living on top of the grinding structural racism in housing, schools, jobs and entrepreneurship, chews at Black people more than red meat Southern politics. The Democrats can talk all the Black Lives Matter they want, but the nitty gritty of a roof over the head and bread on the table is more important than a ranting Ron DeSantis in Florida, a curmudgeonly Greg Abbott in Texas, or a combative Brian Kemp in Georgia.
I didn’t include New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California in my list of trending states from blue to red or red to blue. They’re safe Democratic states, not swing states. Now I’m going back to take a look at them as the article states those four states have lost the most blacks going to red states.
California 2000 D+12, 2022 D+13 Illinois 2000 D+12, 2022 D+7 New Jersey 2000 D+10, 2022 D +6 New York D+15, 2022 D+10
It does seem the loss of blacks has moved 3 of the 4 solid Democratic states to being a bit more republican. Republicans flipped or gained 4 New York previously held Democratic house seats, GOP flipped one in New Jersey, no change in Illinois, the Republican flipped or gained 2 previously held Democratic house seats in California. California, New Jersey and New York provided 7 of the 9 seats the Republicans gained last year to regain control of the house. Was it because of the loss of blacks moving south due to bread, butter, roofing issues, you decide?
States that blacks have fled to compare with those states above in which blacks have left.
Did you read the article? It explains why blacks are moving to the south, to places like Georgia, Florida, North Carolina and Texas. From the article on some of the reasons why.
What matters is that Black unemployment is higher in California, Illinois, and New York than in Florida, Georgia, or Texas. What matters is that of the 12 most segregated cities for Black people, as measured by Brookings, 11 of them are north of the Mason-Dixon Line.
And
Recent stories in the New York Times and Washington Post, feature the massive declines in New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco of blacks.
In those cities, the cost of living on top of the grinding structural racism in housing, schools, jobs and entrepreneurship, chews at Black people more than red meat Southern politics. The Democrats can talk all the Black Lives Matter they want, but the nitty gritty of a roof over the head and bread on the table is more important than a ranting Ron DeSantis in Florida, a curmudgeonly Greg Abbott in Texas, or a combative Brian Kemp in Georgia.
Read the article, your questions will be answered as to why before you rant and rave.
What’s happening is the political landscape of 1960 is returning slowly with migration playing a big part. In 1960 most of the northeast and Midwest along with California was red. The South a solid blue. Virginia has already become a blue state, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas in 10-20 years or so will follow. But states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota are slowly getting redder. Many states in the northeast are becoming likely democratic instead of solid democratic.
All Republicans dispute that statement and say there is no such thing.
Objective people and those affected by "the grinding structural racism" know the truth.
Republican denial of that racism is what has powered and empowered THE BASE, so now the party is dependent on what THE BASE wants. Right now it wants Trump and the politics of revenge against all people not loyal to Trump.
Consider Texas Republicans. If you are not loyal and pass the purity test you will be censured. If that sounds like it came out of some 3rd rate dictators playbook .... well it did. Fascism has come to the mainstream Republican Party. Gov DeSantis said it best. He won 50% of the vote but he'll use 100% of the power for his own agenda, which is use of big government to crush all opposition to his ideas and rule.
If you think this may be a problem for America ... honk
Regardless , blacks will continue to move out of New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California to the south. You can either buy what was said in the article or not. It makes no difference, blacks are leaving those big cities like Chicago, San Francisco, New York etc. for the south. That’s undeniable. California lost a congressional seat, so too New York and Illinois. Florida gained one, also North Carolina gained a seat and Texas two. This could be attributed to blacks leaving the for mentioned states going to the later mentioned states. Although New York, Illinois, California aren’t in danger of turning red say 10-15 years from now, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania are. Down south, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas all might be blue states in 10-15 or so years. All thanks to blacks moving out of the northern states to the southern ones. Out west we have Arizona going blue while Nevada and New Mexico are going red.
After the 1992 Rodney King riots in Los Angeles, black Americans moved to San Bernardino, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. Hispanics moved in and backfilled the vacancies.
The reasons why black Americans moved out of Los Angeles in 1992 was because they were not getting fair treatment by law enforcement.
Regardless , blacks will continue to move out of New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California to the south. You can either buy what was said in the article or not. It makes no difference, blacks are leaving those big cities like Chicago, San Francisco, New York etc. for the south. That’s undeniable. California lost a congressional seat, so too New York and Illinois. Florida gained one, also North Carolina gained a seat and Texas two. This could be attributed to blacks leaving the for mentioned states going to the later mentioned states. Although New York, Illinois, California aren’t in danger of turning red say 10-15 years from now, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania are. Down south, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas all might be blue states in 10-15 or so years. All thanks to blacks moving out of the northern states to the southern ones. Out west we have Arizona going blue while Nevada and New Mexico are going red.
Why any state would "turn red" is ridiculous. The way Republicans treat minorities is outrageous. That treatment is not gong to change any time soon - Republican treatment of minorities will only get worse.
After the 1992 Rodney King riots in Los Angeles, black Americans moved to San Bernardino, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. Hispanics moved in and backfilled the vacancies.
The reasons why black Americans moved out of Los Angeles in 1992 was because they were not getting fair treatment by law enforcement.
Sorry but I am not seeing a dearth of black Angelenos except for two specific varieties: Bloods and Crips. THEY were the ones doing the most moving out of L.A. and when that happened, the pitched street battles and drive-by shootings between the rival gangs gradually began to dissipate, at least in comparison to the Eighties, when I was making a part time living from shooting news footage of that very thing. Don't forget, yours truly was in the street with a camera during the 1992 riots. And you forgot Palmdale, which is where you can find a good many displaced Bloods and Crips today.
I don’t know Rick, I’m a numbers guy and a non-partisan. I see a trend over the last 15 or so years where the portion of the black vote who vote Republican has grown from 4% to 13%. The portion of the Hispanic vote from 26% to 39%. Where that growth is varies from state to state. Hispanic and black men are much more liable to vote Republican than Hispanic and black women. 17% of black men voted republican in 2022 vs 10% of black women. 45% of Hispanic men voted Republican vs. 33% of Hispanic women which follows the overall gender vote of 56% of men voting Republican, 45% of women voting republican.
Maybe it’s more man vs. women thing? The thing is the 13% of blacks voting republican in 2022 is the highest since 1972 when 15% of blacks voted Republican. The 39% of Hispanics voting Republican in 2022 was also the highest since 1972 with the lone exception of 2004 when G.W. Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote. The 40% of the white vote the Democrats received in 2022 was a bit below the historical average they normally receive of the white vote going back to 1976 when the Democrats received 48%. The Historical average since 1972 is 42% of the white vote. The last time the Democrats won the white vote was in 1964.
These are the numbers, as to the reasons why, I assume with each election they’re different. The reasons are dynamic and change as do the numbers, percentages.
Interesting tidbits on congress. There are 52 Hispanic or Latino Members in Congress. Of the Members of the House, 32 are Democrats and 13 are Republicans. Of the seven Hispanic Senators, three Republicans, four Democrats There are 59 African American Members, Fifty-six serve in the House. Fifty-four of the African American House Members, are Democrats and two are Republicans. Two of the Senators are Democrats and one is Republican.
I don’t know Rick, I’m a numbers guy and a non-partisan. I see a trend over the last 15 or so years where the portion of the black vote who vote Republican has grown from 4% to 13%. The portion of the Hispanic vote from 26% to 39%.
Yes of course, that's the black men who aren't or weren't incarcerated.* Ever wonder what it takes to get your rights restored in some of these red states if you're a black man?
*There's a lot of them, almost a quarter of all black males in fact.
For me Jeffrey, what’s this trend means is that for those solely relying on the change in demographics to make the Democratic Party a permanent majority party may be in for a rude surprise. I went back to 1972, women always voted more Democratic than men since then regardless of race. During this time 1972-2022, republicans have always won the men’s vote with the lone exception of 1992 when Democrats won the men’s vote 41-39, Bill Clinton over G.H.W. Bush, but Perot received 21% of the men’s vote that year. Without Perot, the GOP probably would have won the men’s vote that year also. Women voted Republican in 1980, 84, 88, but voted Democratic ever since. Sometimes by huge margins. I’d say the republican party has become the party of men, the democratic party the party of women regardless of race. This is speaking in generalities as sometime the winning gap has been as close as a point or two, sometimes as much as 10 points. Still, we expect women to vote democratic, men to vote republican.
One other thing, Hispanics. The improvement of the GOP among Hispanics for 2022 occurred mostly in the border states. Texas, 45% of Hispanics voted Republican, 42% in New Mexico, 41% in Arizona. Then in Florida 58% of Hispanics voting republican. The rest of the states were within a point or two of the national average, 39%. That 39% was the highest in congressional elections since 1972 when these stats began and the second highest since 1972 in presidential. G.W. Bush received 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.
Will this trend continue in 2024? Can the republicans get more than 13% of the black vote? Can they receive more than 39% of the Hispanic vote? Will black and Hispanic men continue their drift toward the GOP while black and Hispanic women remain loyal to the Democrats? That depends on the candidates and the country’s situation at the time in my opinion.
I’ve been going over the Republican primary polls. I’m not sure that DeSantis will announce that he will be seeking the Republican Presidential nomination contrary to everyone else. If he does, I think DeSantis will wait until late in the year to see if Trump is indicted in New York or Georgia or by the DOJ. If Trump is, that will be when DeSantis jumps in. If not, DeSantis may give the GOP presidential nomination a pass. This is just a gut feeling on my part. Here are how the polls show the Republican presidential nomination process between Trump and DeSantis. Haley is below 5% in all of these, so I left her out.
Nationally Trump 42% DeSantis 30 Pennsylvania Trump 49% DeSantis 31% Florida Trump 27% DeSantis 52% New Hampshire Trump 58% DeSantis 17% Virginia Trump 39% DeSantis 28% Arizona Trump 42% DeSantis 28% California Trump 28% DeSantis 37% Kansas Trump 30% DeSantis 17% South Carolina T 43% DeSantis 28%
These are the only states with recent polls on the Republican Presidential nomination process. DeSantis leads in only 2, Florida and California. My gut, nothing rational or in writing or even being talked about. I don’t think DeSantis will take the plunge unless Trump is indicted. Then DeSantis would look like the ideal alternative to Trump. DeSantis will continue to campaign like he’s running, but won’t announce unless Trump is indicted. There’s no way for DeSantis to win otherwise as the MAGA, Trump supporters within the GOP is the largest faction probably around 45%. Time will tell what happens. I’ll also add, if Trump is indicted, there will be plenty of other besides DeSantis take the plunge.
Should Trump win nomination and go on to win election, and if he had been indicted and/or convicted, he would take oath in prison, then immediately pardon himself .... and all is well.
Now should you believe this scenario is impossible ... all I need do is point out how an insurrection was impossible, because it can't happen in America.
I think you fear Trump way too much. It takes more than the 28% or so of the national electorate which makes up the Republican Party’s base to elect a president. Of that 28% only around 40-45% are MAGA, Trump supporters. You do have Republican leaning independents that may be added on, that would be another 15%, but would all the Republican leaning independents vote for Trump? They wouldn’t.
Would those Republicans and republican leaning independents who dislike Trump vote democratic? Some would, some would vote third party, some would still vote for Trump, some would stay home. Unless the democrats come up with a candidate more disliked than Trump, which I suppose is a possibility. They came up with Hillary Clinton in 2016. I see no path to victory for Trump. In fact, what I see if Trump is the GOP nominee and the democrats offer a decent candidate acceptable to independents is the Democrats having a banner 2024 in which they not only retain the presidency, but retain the senate and regain the house. A Trump candidacy would be the best thing ever to happen to the democrats in 2024. I dislike Trump, but I don’t fear him. I don’t fear the MAGA portion of the GOP either. Trump and MAGA may be powerful within the GOP ranks, but not nationwide. Just look at the results of the 2022 general election in which most Trump endorsed, chosen MAGA candidates lost. In a year in which the Republicans had everything going for them. Even within the GOP, there’s a lot of cracks and fissures centering around Trump. Many republicans want to win elections, general elections and not just make a statement in their primaries. Could those non-MAGA Republican coalesce around a candidate other than Trump, they could. But they’re too busy fighting among themselves, too disunited.
I think that was your argument for everything Trump did.
I believe you were one of the many people who concluded prior to 2016 Clinton would win, because the polls .... it also seems I was one of a few who warned Trump support may be more than the polls show, and especially after Comey skewed the election.
Yes I fear Trump because I know what he is capable of ... everything.
Your arguments for why Trump is bad for the party is simply whistling in the dark, but guess what, your argument is the same as the one supporters use .... his rallies were so big he had to win. He was bad for the party in 2016 and 2020, and now. Doesn't mean anything.
What matters is the current state of play. Trump is leading the polls ( throwing a bone to the polls). He still controls THE BASE. He (and by extension THE BASE) continues to extort moderate Republicans (read that as rational). The House Republican caucus now can carry weapons on the House floor. So during certification they will be armed. A significant number of states are now rejecting rational plans for voter security in favor of chaos, by rejecting ERIC, passing voter disenfranchisement bills, appointing election deniers to offices which control elections, etc. By 2024 many states will be able to control the outcome of the vote, either legally or illegally. Barring a rigged election by Trump supporting Republicans, should he lose in spite of the rigging, he will still have an avenue to overthrow the results by staging another coup, and now he will have inside help (armed House members).
I know ... it can't happen in America. Words written on a beach while a hurricane lands.
I know ... it can't happen in America. Words written on a beach while a hurricane lands.
I've said similar things to our friend Pero but he just comes back with more reams of statistics. That tells me he's not concerned about piddling things like would be dictators catching the lucky breaks they need to slap the iron yoke on the necks of 335 million Americans, probably because he is so convinced that it can't happen here.
I would shudder to think he just thinks that, "if that's what voters want, so be it." I hope that's not the case, I really do, but in any case, my own view is that democracy dies when I die, if I have any power or say in the matter and I know I am not alone either.
Trump IS the American version of Putin and so is Ron DeSantis. And more people had better wake up and stop whistling It Can't Happen Here.
Trump controls around 40-45% of the Republican Party. But that’s enough for him to win the nomination as those oppose to him are way too divided to stop him. ALA 2016 when Trump won the nomination with 35% of the GOP vote. Trump is currently at 43% in the GOP nomination polls against a whole lot of non-announced maybe candidates. Which he’ll probably stay close to that all the way to the convention. Haley isn’t about to defeat Trump. I don’t think DeSantis will either as DeSantis as many pointed out is Trump 2.0 without the baggage along with the childish antics and schoolyard bullying tactic. The probability of Trump being the GOP nominee is high today. But there’s a long way to go.
If Biden decide to run again, no one will challenge him as to do so is a death knell to a sitting president. The polls give Biden a slight lead today over Trump with a very long time to go before Nov 2024.
But Trump has stayed fairly hidden from public view, off TV. He hasn’t been in front of the tube very much to remind voters why they dislike him so much. Give it time, Trump will defeat Trump if he runs again in 2024. Just like Trump defeated Trump in 2020, not Biden. Like Trump’s chosen candidates in 2022 lost helping the Democrats turn what should have been a red wave into a red trickle or a blue trickle, take you pick. Biden also has a small lead against DeSantis
Biden has a 44% overall job approval today, he should be 5-10 points behind if it weren’t for Trump. Trump is keeping Biden afloat and slightly in the lead. Trump is chugging along with a 36% favorable among independents, 58% unfavorable. Not the type of favorable/unfavorable rating that would imply Trump has a chance of winning them. Unless his opponent is right around that 36/58% favorable/unfavorable. The one I’d be worried about is DeSantis, independents haven’t made up their mind about him yet. Today DeSantis is at 36/38 favorable/unfavorable with 26% undecided, not sure or asking who the heck is DeSantis. Me, I’ll just sit back and relax and watch. Worry, no. Fear, no. Trump isn’t about to win anymore general elections. The caveat, that is unless the Democrats screw up and nominate a candidate as disliked as much as Trump is by independents. Like in 2016.
And for the record, yes I thought Clinton would win in 2016. I knew the polls showed Trump tied with Clinton in Pennsylvania, Trump ahead by 1 in Michigan with Wisconsin having no recent polls, the last one was 20 Oct 2016 with Clinton having a 6-point lead. I went by history and gave all 3 tossup states to Hillary Clinton. I got them wrong. I should have paid closer attention to the polls. They were there for everyone to see, but like the professional pundits, I ignored them.
That’s correct Rick, at least as it stands today. But who knows how it will stand in 8 or 9 months from now when the primaries start heating up. The problem for anti-Trump Republicans, that anti-Trump is too strong as they would support Trump if he wins the nomination. Those Republicans who don’t want Trump to be their nominee out of fear of close to being a guaranteed general election loss are way too divided to settle on a single candidate to prevent Trump from gaining the nomination. Also, way too many of the more high-profile Republican, the bigger names are afraid to jump in know their chances as of today are close to nil. A no name challenger won’t due. Haley comes to mind. Going over the probable’s or possible’s, there’s no one there that can successfully challenge Trump. At least as of today, tomorrow, who knows?
It looks like Biden has clear sailing if he decides to run again. I’m sure the Democratic Party leadership knows the history of sitting presidents who were challenged with their own party. They all either withdrew and the one who challenged the sitting president lost as in the case of Kefauver vs. Truman 1952 or McCarthy vs. LBJ 1968, Eisenhower and Nixon won over Stevenson and Humphrey. Or the sitting president was able to pull out a win in the primaries only to lose in the general election, Ford 1976 vs. Reagan, Carter 1980 vs. Kennedy, G.H.W. Bush 1992 vs. Buchanan.
It's not that Trump scares me, he does not. I think he is a pathetic little orange man that should have been tried for treason . What does worry me is what he started. The Maga movement. To me, this is nothing more than a group that want to obtain authoritarianism. They are unable to understand, that, should what they want, were to happen here, they will be treated no different than the rest of us. They will be enslaved right along with the rest of us.
This Maga movement now includes Congress persons who are gung-ho about obtaining the Maga goal. And Maga state legislators, which could be even more dangerous than MAGA congress people. BTW, the MAGA rule is not to make America great again. It is to make America a dictatorship with their dictator in charge. Again, they are not able to comprehend that they will be minions too.
How much longer until Maga also infects the Senate? Then what? The Presidency again? If they again gain the Presidency, it's over.
I don't believe Trump started the movement. So let's take a look at the history behind it.
The MAGA group is primarily motivated by immigration issues (and the associated racist issues) i.e. whites versus colored folks. First words out of Trump's mouth were aliens crossing southern border. First issue of interest for MAGA's is immigration. So if the first thing these folks think about is how superior they are to colored folks, it is an implicit admission they are authoritarians. So the question is, did Trump start the movement?
I'll go back to the racist block of southern Democrats prior to the Civil Rights Act of 1965. This block of voters became disenchanted with the Democrat Party as the northern Democrats voted for the bill. The Republican Party despite the fact they voted for the bill decided to seduce this group of disaffected voters to the Republican Party with advertisements of their concerns solely for these voters vis a vis all voters in the South. Thus began the migration of Democrat voters to the Republican Party.
So if you look at the context of their political history it becomes clear this is the foundation for MAGA. Add the additional influences of the NRA in the late 70's and the rise of Gingrich in late 80's, and finally the formation of the propaganda arm of the Republican Party with Fox News in the 90's, we see a full complement for the theoretical basis of MAGA.
Trump has some media savvy, and he took advantage of the skepticism of big government, and and largely cynical bigotry of these formerly disaffected Democrat voters. These folks are simple minded and suffer from political paranoia. People not "them" are out to get them and they believe they are superior to the "others".
Republicans for the most part have ignored the MAGA group and simply provided a shill for them, tacitly condoning their bigotry by denying they are bigots. These establishment Republicans have long known who the MAGA were and are but couldn't allow non-Republicans to consider the Republican base were bigots. Trump was the first to recognize how much power these folks had in the party and simply tapped into it.
This is the reason I argue that unless and until one of Trump's opponents openly endorses MAGA for what they are, Trump will win nomination. And let me quote this ....
Originally Posted by Trump
you also had people that were very fine people, on both sides.
Trump should scare everyone. You know what he is and you know what he wants. The MAGA has laid the foundation for a giuoco piano coup. From the local levels of government to state offices to federal government and now we have allies of the failed coup buying residential areas 2 blocks from the Capitol. If you were planning another coup, the board pieces are in place, simply waiting for the right time to move.
It's up to the Democrats to pick a dynamic and exciting candidate in 2024. If they fail then DeSantis will likely sit in the oval office for eight years.
Biden and Harris would be doing their party a big favor if they bowed out early and let the jostling begin for who's going to be our next Democratic President.
DeSantis bid to be POTUS in 2025 ended today. He didn't even make it to New Hampshire - the 1st GOP primary state. Now Ron can go back to Florida where he'll keep losing court cases to Mickey Mouse.
Had Gov De Santis come clean and proclaimed his white nationalistic stripes, he may have been the winner in Iowa.
The missing piece for GOP candidates to win over the base is white nationalism i.e. just claiming the border is a problem is not enough!!! It's gotta be full tilt boogie ... non-whites are replacing whites, Democrat operatives are bringing them in intentionally, etc .... o and there are good people on both sides ;>)
I have held the opinion for some time, reinforced lately, and perhaps expressed earlier, that the crop of GOP candidates were singularly uninspiring. They are, collectively, the dregs of a formerly formidable party, headed by a Fascist - I use that term advisedly - and supported by fascist wannabes.
The GOP offers nothing for the benefit of the country - absolutely nothing - and I used to support their presence as a balance to the progressiveness of the Democrats. Unfortunately, that is definitively no longer the case. It astounds me that they have as much support as they maintain, given their rank incompetence, but then, old habits die hard. The GOP is to politics what smoking is to one's health.
I'm going to make a prediction here and now so y'all can hold me to it later. Joe Biden is going to be reelected by essentially the same margin as last time. Moreover, the House is going to swing to the Democrats. The Senate I am not as sure about, as that is a seriously uphill climb.*
The basis of my prediction is multifold, but essentially this: 1) the economy continues to improve, and that reality is beginning to trickle down to the masses; 2) democracy really does matter to the majority of the electorate, and the efforts at killing democracy by the GOP are pissing people off (e.g., gerrymandering, vote suppression, making voting harder); 3) the GOP has become a cult, and the cult leader has never won an election on merit; 4) Trump is becoming more unhinged and more nakedly fascist; 5) Dobbs shocked the country and its repercussions are really becoming alarming - a woman in Texas literally died because she was denied a timely abortion, and she is not likely to be the last.**
* "Democrats are defending seven of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. An eighth, Arizona, is held by a onetime Democrat, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who still caucuses with her former party and hasn’t said whether she’s running for reelection. Manchin’s decision has had the immediate effect of making the only two Democratic targets on this list – Texas and Florida – much more prominent in the party’s 2024 strategy.
Assuming West Virginia is off the map for Democrats, here’s what may need to happen for them to keep control of the Senate: They could defend all of their remaining seats and retain the presidency (because of the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate); they could hold all their remaining seats, lose the presidency, but flip either Florida or Texas; or they could lose another seat, win the presidency and flip both Florida and Texas. Flipping either of those states while losing the presidency would mean the Democratic Senate candidate would have to significantly overperform the top of the ticket.
I'm going to make a prediction here and now so y'all can hold me to it later. Joe Biden is going to be reelected by essentially the same margin as last time. Moreover, the House is going to swing to the Democrats. The Senate I am not as sure about, as that is a seriously uphill climb.*
The basis of my prediction is multifold, but essentially this: 1) the economy continues to improve, and that reality is beginning to trickle down to the masses; 2) democracy really does matter to the majority of the electorate, and the efforts at killing democracy by the GOP are pissing people off (e.g., gerrymandering, vote suppression, making voting harder); 3) the GOP has become a cult, and the cult leader has never won an election on merit; 4) Trump is becoming more unhinged and more nakedly fascist; 5) Dobbs shocked the country and its repercussions are really becoming alarming - a woman in Texas literally died because she was denied a timely abortion, and she is not likely to be the last.**
* "Democrats are defending seven of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. An eighth, Arizona, is held by a onetime Democrat, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who still caucuses with her former party and hasn’t said whether she’s running for reelection. Manchin’s decision has had the immediate effect of making the only two Democratic targets on this list – Texas and Florida – much more prominent in the party’s 2024 strategy.
Assuming West Virginia is off the map for Democrats, here’s what may need to happen for them to keep control of the Senate: They could defend all of their remaining seats and retain the presidency (because of the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate); they could hold all their remaining seats, lose the presidency, but flip either Florida or Texas; or they could lose another seat, win the presidency and flip both Florida and Texas. Flipping either of those states while losing the presidency would mean the Democratic Senate candidate would have to significantly overperform the top of the ticket.
I usually do monthly election forecasts. I go by the numbers available today and for each of the coming months. For January 2024, I agree Biden will be reelected. But won’t receive over 50%. 47-45 popular vote win, 287-251 in the EC. Low voter turnout and a high third party vote due to the dislike and unwantedness to become the next president of around 30% of the electorate for both major party candidates. An election more in line with 2016 than 2020.
The Democrats regain the house, probably a 6-10 seat gain while losing the senate. The democrats have already ensured themselves of a 2-seat gain with the redistricting done in Alabama and Louisiana which created two new majority black districts. Senate wise, West Virginia, Ohio and Montana go republican.
We had a lower percentage of all Americans who disliked both Trump and Clinton in 2016, 25% disliking and not wanting neither one. Voter turnout was 54% in 2016 compared to 62% in 2020. Third party voted was 6% in 2016 compared to 1.7% in 2020. We have a bit more percentage wise of the electorate today dissatisfied, disliking, not wanted a bit more with both major party choices than in 2016. Of course this all depends on how many state ballots RFK Jr. and the no labels party get on. That is unknown at this time. RFK Jr. has qualified to be on Utah and New Hampshire’s state ballots and is in the process of getting on 10 more state ballots, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas.
No Labels has ballot access in at least 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. Signature gatherers have another 14 states in their sights between now and November, though the major parties are throwing up their usual obstacles. Although they haven’t settled on a candidate. How viable will RFK Jr. and No Labels be, that all depends on how much money they have to spend. Since 1960 the candidate with the most money raised and spent has won the presidency with one lone exception, 2016 when Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million.
Rather than quoting your whole post, I'm going to identify items I agree and disagree with, in sequence, and explain why (this is why I love RR):
Originally Posted by perotista
For January 2024, I agree Biden will be reelected.
We agree, here. I believe his numbers will improve with the economy and Trump's will fall precipitously as the reality of what a second term portends becomes increasingly apparent. Shockingly, it is still too early for too many folks to pay attention.
Originally Posted by perotista
But won’t receive over 50%.
I disagree, but for precisely the reason that you think there will be a drain from a 3rd party candidate.
Originally Posted by perotista
47-45 popular vote win, 287-251 in the EC.
I already made my prediction - 306 EC votes for Biden. I think he will improve his margin in every swing State that was close.
Originally Posted by perotista
Low voter turnout and a high third party vote/ An election more in line with 2016 than 2020.
This is the crux of our disagreement. I believe there will be high voter turnout that surpasses 2020, at least for the Democrats, for a few profound reasons: First, abortion will be on the ballot in several States - we've already seen how that drives turnout; second, the economy is already booming, and it is becoming more obvious to everyone (even FOX, who is trying desperately to spin gold into straw). Finally, as Trump gets more exposure, the issues he has are going to eclipse concerns about Biden's frailty. Trump is showing huge mental acuity lapses, and the pressure of his multiple trials is driving him off the rails. He's also increasingly demonstrating anti-democratic intent which is impacting a lot of the voters. That will only increase as the reality becomes more acute. The FOX/Trump vote is locked in. He's not improving his position.
Originally Posted by perotista
The Democrats regain the house, probably a 6-10 seat gain while losing the senate. [quote=perotista]Here we mostly agree, and also the margin (although a bigger swing is well within the realm of possibility, depending on how the defenestration of the GOP House progresses). Unfortunately, some Dem seats have been vacated for a variety of reasons, which may suppress those gains. [quote=perotista]Senate wise, West Virginia, Ohio and Montana go republican.
Here we also disagree. Both Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester will be reelected, in large part because of the abortion issue. Montana will have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot, and the high-handed efforts to prevent it appearing on the ballot are rankling the population, who are quite independent. Sherrod Brown has just been too good for Ohio. Although Ohio is still quite red, the inherent conservatism actually helps Brown, as Ohioans are averse to change.
Originally Posted by perotista
We had a lower percentage of all Americans who disliked both Trump and Clinton in 2016,
While this is true, in 2016 we didn't really know where Trump would land. His term was an unmitigated disaster in virtually every aspect. Biden's unpopularity is skin deep, Trump's is bone.
Originally Posted by perotista
Voter turnout was 54% in 2016 compared to 62% in 2020.
I think you underestimate the motivation of Dobbs and overestimate antipathy to Biden.
Originally Posted by perotista
Third party vote was 6% in 2016 compared to 1.7% in 2020.
Here is a significant difference. I don't think there will be a major 3rd Party presence. They missed their window. No Labels is waning quickly and they have no viable candidates. RFK, likewise, will get even less attention as time progresses (and people learn just how truly whacko he is).
Now, there is a huge caveat to all of this: either candidate could have a major health scare and that could throw the whole process into a cocked hat.
I’ll just hit a couple of points, my reasoning for a low voter turnout is the high dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. 58% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, 53% don’t want Trump to run again either. Questions 14 and 15. As I said I’m relying on numbers, although I know they’ll change over time.
And if you look today, round off, Biden is viewed by just 39% of all Americans in a positive or favorable manner, 55% negative or unfavorable. Trump is close to identical at 42% favorable or positive vs. 54% negative/unfavorable.
Then we have 64% of all Americans who think this country needs another viable choice other than Biden and Trump, 36% think the choice between Biden and Trump is good enough.
As for abortion, I always viewed that issue as being baked in. Over the last 50 years of so, those avid pro-choicers, those who decide their vote on the abortion issue have become democrats as those avid-pro lifers became republicans. As for third party, we had Johnson, Stein, a few other who were just a third name on the ballot not named Trump nor Clinton that drew 6% of the vote. They were out spent in 2016 1.8 billion by the two major party candidates to a bit over 3 million. There was no way for any of the third party candidates to get their message out, no media attention, no name recognition, no nothing. Yet they drew 6% of the vote in 2016. No labels and RFK Jr. have roughly 7 more months to get on the ballot in most states. Once we know on how many states, we’ll have a better idea. No Labels say they’re well financed, time will tell. RFK Jr. has name recognition.
One last thing about age and mental acumen. 55% of all Americans that Biden’s age severely limit his ability to do the job. Question 21. But only 23% says the same about Trump. Question 24.
I do think Brown stands a better chance of winning than Tester does in Montana. It all determines who their opponent will be. But for the most part we’re on the same sheet of music. I’d be more worried about the 30% of the electorate searching for someone other than Biden or Trump. What will they do? Who knows at this time?
Here’s something from Gallup I just received in my inbox. It may help explain by around 30% of all Americans are searching, looking for, wanting someone other than Biden and Trump. I think this applies directly to this year’s presidential election.
Felonies, Old Age Heavily Count Against Candidates
Had Gov De Santis come clean and proclaimed his white nationalistic stripes, he may have been the winner in Iowa.
The missing piece for GOP candidates to win over the base is white nationalism i.e. just claiming the border is a problem is not enough!!! It's gotta be full tilt boogie ... non-whites are replacing whites, Democrat operatives are bringing them in intentionally, etc .... o and there are good people on both sides ;>)
There currently is a border bill in Congress that Donald Trump is encouraging the GOP to blow-up because if passed, ol' Joe would score a "win"
If the border is such a concern for GOP'ers why would they blow-up this deal? Because the GOP "concern" for the border is a lie just like everything else with the GOP.
The GOP is in such a disarray right now, I can't imagine them actually doing well in November. Current polls be damned.
Compromise is a four letter word which the nutty extremists will not use .... remember alligators? .... army on the border? .... Texas about to subvert the Constitution
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Current polls be damned
don't delude yourself into thinking MAGA is not viable. In Republican states they will be elected. Trump will win the Republican vote in Republican states. Is there enough MAGA infrastructure in place to arbitrarily throw out votes in order for Trump to win? Will the court uphold fake elector schemes? Should there be another assault on the Capitol, will gun toting MAGA congressmen (and women) help the insurrectionists?
We do not live in "normal" times. The MAGA assault on our institutions has all but placed the columns of Democracy on a precipice. Any hard movement will find rubble at the feet of Democracy. Only the weathermen knows which way the wind is blowing.
Many of the retiring congress critters has mentioned the dysfunctional state congress is in the reason they’re retiring. The Border deal is a prime example. And yes, compromise is a four-letter word. MAGA or Trump is still very viable. Trump leads Biden in a two-candidate head to head race today. But keep in mind, these pollsters gave the respondents only two choices, Trump or Biden. They didn’t give them any third party or will not vote option which changes the below equation quite a lot.
As long as Trump is around, there will be no normal times, if ever. The main reason a lot of swing voters voted for Biden in 2020 was to bring some sanity and normalcy back to the office of the presidency and government as a whole. Today, quite a lot of them have forgotten the reason they voted for Biden back then. It isn’t that these voters have gone over to Trump, they haven’t. They’ve went into the vote third party or will not vote, stay home columns if the rematch occurs. There’s dangerous water ahead, unsure sailing for Biden.
Isn’t it strange that the future of this country may lie in the hands of 9 black robed justices.
Polls still use landlines. What Millennial has a landline? Ol' Joe has a secret weapon: T.S.
Polls use different methods. Yes, landlines are still used to a small extent, so too are cell phones, voice interactive responses, the internet, e-mails to selected participants, old fashioned pollster to caller question and answers, talking to the person. Now history has shown most polls to be accurate within their MOE as stated in the polls. What one needs to watch is the poll of all Adults, of registered voters or of likely voters. Pollsters change their methods over time. They get paid for the accuracy of their polling. A polling firm that is always off, inaccurate won’t stay in business long as both major parties and candidates want accuracy along with the news organizations, pundits, forecasters, you name it.
A couple of examples, the 2022 generic congressional poll with an MOE of plus or minus 3 points show a result of Republicans 48.0 to the democrats 45.5% a 2.5-point margin for the GOP. The final result was 50.6% republican, 47.8 for a margin for the GOP of 2.8 points. The final margin was well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The 0.003% difference is about as close as any polling can get.
In 2016 polls had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points, she won it by 2.1 points. The 1.2-point difference was still well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.
Now the 2020 polling average had Biden winning the popular vote by 7.2 points, he won it by 4.5 points. Barely within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points, off by 2.7 points, but considered accurate as the average of polls were within the MOE.
If you look at the polling average today, Trump vs. Biden. Trump is leading in the polls by 3.9 points. But applying the MOE of plus or minus 3 points as most polls are, Trump’s lead may be as small as 0.9 of a point or as much as 6.9 points. I always consider the MOE when doing my forecasting. Anything within the MOE, I consider it a tie. One other thing is polls have a long history of over inflating the Democrats by a couple of points as you can see in both 2016 presidential and in the 2020 generic congressional along with the presidential. The 2020 generic congressional ballots had the democrats winning by 6.8 points, they won the generic by 3.1. Slightly outside the MOE. But the polls were still inflating the Democrats winning margin.
Isn’t it strange that the future of this country may lie in the hands of 9 black robed justices.
Strange is not the word I would have used.
If Democracy is contingent on the SC, we are definitely lost. Democracy is only viable if we the people say it is so.
Originally Posted by rporter314
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Isn’t it strange that the future of this country may lie in the hands of 9 black robed justices.
Strange is not the word I would have used.
If Democracy is contingent on the SC, we are definitely lost. Democracy is only viable if we the people say it is so.
If you look at Pew Research in the confidence level of how elections are administrated, 22% say very well, 48% somewhat well, 22% not very well with 9% not well at all.
Now confidence in election results per Gallup - accurately cast and counted in this year’s election -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident? 63% answered very or somewhat confident. Broken down 85% of democrats are very or somewhat confident, 67% of independents, but only 40% of republicans.
Which closely aligns with the percentage of voters who think Biden legitimately won in 2020, 64% say’s Biden did, 36% says Biden didn’t. Broken down – 95% of Democrats state Biden won legitimately, 68% of independents, 26% of Republicans. Question 29. Now go to question 30, Would you say that Donald Trump legitimately won the 2016 election, or not? 69% of all Americans says he did, 31% say he didn’t. Broken down 53% of democrats say Trump won legitimately, 47% says Trump didn’t. 65% of independents, 90% of republicans also said Trump’s win was legit.
Notice the lack of trust republicans showed in 2020 results to their full trust in the 2016 results. Same for the low percentages of democrats who thought Trump won legitimately in 2016 to their very high trust percentage in Biden’s win in 2020. Independents, 2/3rds trusted or thought whoever won regardless of party both years, their win was legit.
I think you have misinterpreted what I mean when I say "Democracy is only viable if we the people say it is so".
Democracy does not depend on whether people believe an election was stolen or what the polls say about what they believe, but rather maintain a belief in an orderly transfer of power. An example of how we have devolved and in particular why the SC is not the arbiter of Democracy, in the 2000 election the SC was an interloper in the Democratic process. They can not declare winners. Only the voters can make that decision. Allow the ballots be counted. Likewise any intervention by the SC now would only exacerbate an already degrading belief in Democracy.
What I have noticed in the last 20 years is a palpable erosion of rational thought by conservatives. The say they are patriots but hate the Constitution. Because I live n the South I suspect there is a legacy of anti-federalism sentiment still alive and well. Buried beneath the facade states rights, I believe there is a broad current of delusional thinking unhinged from a healthy cynicism of the federal government. This pervasive delusion has a stranglehold on the Republican(read as MAGA Party). Part and parcel is an increasing belief there is a legitimate argument for the violent overthrow of government.
A small number of people saw the possibility in 2020 of what this delusional thinking would encompass. We saw it with our own eyes on Jan 6. We heard it in the shadows, and now it is heard in public, and that is only people talking. Now we have seen and are now seeing states rebuffing court orders. The courts have no mechanism to enforce their orders, other than a belief in Democracy.
Polling does not reflect nor measure the groundswell of delusional thinking, which is only getting worse. Their delusions are exacerbated by media which feeds them half truths or no facts at all. These people feel disenfranchised because they believe the federal government is not only corrupt, but has abandoned their core belief system. Deep within the soul of these people is the selfish belief based in bigotry, the federal government is giving their hard earned money to people who do not deserve it, the non-whites, or because they are poor.
These folks were here before Trump and will remain long after Trump becomes a footnote in history. How many people doe it take to overthrow Democracy in our country? It won't be 9 black robed individuals. It could very well be a small number in the halls of Congress, in state legislatures, and election boards which topple the pillars of Democracy. Imagine replacing the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs with Gen Flynn, and similar replacements in other key positions. Democracy may end with a whimper, not a bang.
Okay, I understand that. According to both Pew Research and Gallup we do have between 60-65% of all Americans that still have confidence or trust in our electoral system. Confidence and trust that the results are correct and accurate. Nothing to do with stolen elections or the peaceful transfer of power or does it? Our democracy is based on the Trust and the belief of the accuracy of election results. If one doesn’t trust the system or have confidence in our electoral process, the way it is run and trust in those overseeing the results, that I think would lead to the thinking of stolen elections and the disruption of the peaceful transfer of power. Especially if one thinks the winner is bogus.
If the way, we elect our leaders is distrusted that I think leads to the distrust of our leaders and in our electoral system as a whole. Which leads to a lot of folks believing in stolen elections and to the disruption of the transfer of power from those who think the winners are bogus, that they didn’t actually win, but lost. How our democracy performs is based on trust in the electoral system, people voting and having a belief, confidence, trust that their vote was counted, and the overall results were correct and accurate. If one believes, trust, has confidence in this, our electoral system there will be no thought of a stolen elections or disruption of the peaceful transfer of power.
I think confidence and trust in our electoral system is what keeps our democracy viable, lasting far into the future. We’ve entered an era where more and more people are distrusting the way and results of how we elect our leaders, trust in our government to do what is right is fast eroding, trust in the media to report the news accurately, fully and fairly has gone into the dumps. All of this in my opinion is eroding and destroying democracy in this country. It’s not only the peaceful transfer of power, but confidence and trust in the whole system democracy provides, electoral, government, media, etc.
I think confidence and trust in our electoral system is what keeps our democracy viable, lasting far into the future.
I totally agree, but,
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We’ve entered an era where more and more people are distrusting the way and results of how we elect our leaders, trust in our government to do what is right is fast eroding, trust in the media to report the news accurately, fully and fairly has gone into the dumps. All of this in my opinion is eroding and destroying democracy in this country. It’s not only the peaceful transfer of power, but confidence and trust in the whole system democracy provides, electoral, government, media, etc.
I believe this has been in the works for decades. Maybe I'm just a conspiracy theorist, but this didn't happen overnight. Just like the murder of Roe was a multi-decade, multi-generational effort, I believe the end of our democracy has been too!!
I cannot stress that enough. It has been coming for decades!
Trump happens to be the lucky winner. He will be the one to finish democracy as we know it. The pieces will finish falling in to place and allow this to happen - because it has been, A. Long. Term. Plan.
Here’s public trust in government, it shows your decades theory correct. Watergate seems to be the catalyst in how Americans distrust their own government although they continue to elect their own government leaders. We don’t trust who we elect. Perhaps this is due to electing the lesser of two evils or those voting against a candidate/party, but never for a candidate or party. I’ve done the latter in each of the last two presidential election. Voting against both major party candidates in 2016 and voting against Trump in 2020, casting a vote for Biden, but it was mostly due to my want to have Trump gone. Not necessarily for Biden. Anyone who could have beat Trump would have done.
Trust in the media to report the news fairly, accurately and fully has also declined since Watergate.Only 32% of all Americans trust the media to do so.
Trust or confidence in our electoral system only goes back to 2004, but since then that trust or confidence has fallen from 75% down to 63%. I wouldn’t call Trump a winner, but he is the result of decades of growing distrust and lost confidence in all three categories, Government, media and our electoral system. I would add an overall distrust of our institutions of government. 41% have a great deal or a fair amount of trust in the presidency, executive branch, 32% in congress, legislative branch 49% in the judicial branch.
So let me quote selected words from the Preamble of the US Constitution " ... establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity". Implicit in those words are "peaceful transfer of power".
Ben Franklin said it, it's a republic (meaning Democracy) if you can keep it. So, how does any Democratic nation keep Democracy? It is only through a peaceful transfer of power. What are the predicates of that process? You mentioned them. Fundamental institutions inherent to any viable Democracy, A strong 4th estate to report the facts in order to enhance transparency in government. A strong judiciary, above the dirty business of politics. A government which implements their contractual agreement with it's citizenry. And the glue which binds them is the orderly peaceful transition of power.
The erosion in confidence in the fundamental institutions which form Democracy have been assaulted by conservatives since at least the 1990's. With the initiation of Fox News in 1996 conservatives had a a built in propaganda machine, blasting their listeners 24 hours a day with not just misinformation but disinformation and a psyops campaign to gaslight their audience so they wouldn't know what was factual and what was not.
Government is so corrupt you can only trust a Republican. Media is against conservatives, so they lie. The judiciary rules against conservatives ideals. Government is run by a Satanic cabal heading to Marxist communism. It was that cabal which implemented the CRA, an affront to white Christian's in the South. These people were looking for a savior. Trump being a savvy media guy recognized if he could hitch into that "aggrieved" group of people he could fulfill his narcissistic delusions. Is it any wonder why there is such a large group of people which has no confidence in anything remotely appearing to be government related or the media?
You type of the electoral system ... The conservative propaganda machine has been repeating for years every election has rampant fraud committed by Democrats. Since these folks will never see the facts, they have believed for some time now Democrats lie about elections, the media lies about elections, conservatives are persecuted by government, media, and the judiciary. Is it any wonder when Trump told them the election was rigged and Democrats conspired to defraud him, they believed it.
These people are delusional and now believe as a result of the aforementioned and their delusions, peaceful transitions of power are a thing of the past unless a Republican wins all elections. They have filled the courts with judges who rule based on political ideology rather than the law. They have attempted packing election boards with people who believe only a conservative should win an election, not could but should. There is no telling how many people in the military have become brainwashed with this disinformation and will answer the call for the next physical assault on Democracy, whether it be the Capitol, the Media, or the Courts.
We are in dangerous times and those who wish the demise of Democracy are well funded with many followers, both ideological and delusional willing dupes.
We are in dangerous times and those who wish the demise of Democracy are well funded with many followers, both ideological and delusional willing dupes.
Only Republicans are doing that. Decent Americans are not.
We are in dangerous times and those who wish the demise of Democracy are well funded with many followers, both ideological and delusional willing dupes.
Only Republicans are doing that. Decent Americans are not.
Too many decent Americans are still asleep. They're decent but they're snoring.
Two long-term GOP’ers announced retirement this week. This is now 14 GOP’ers. The RNC is seriously behind in fundraising. The DNC has collected three times more at this point in time. Funding 14 new candidates will take a lot of revenue. Fund-raising is a better barometer than polling is, it seems.
They're beyond any hope.
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