This is very interesting.

How Trump's trials will make a mess of the 2024 election

https://www.yahoo.com/news/how-trumps-trials-will-make-a-mess-of-the-2024-election-090024220.html

And if anyone is interested in the latest polls:

Republican primaries

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

Presidential Trump vs. Biden

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Generic congressional ballot

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

senate forecast – Note that the Republicans are heavily favored to gain West Virginia from the democrats which it seems most democrats will get their wish and be rid of Manchin. The remaining 3 states currently listed as tossups are all held by democrats or an independent caucusing with the democrats, Ohio, Brown, Montana, Tester, Arizona, Sinema. There are no republican senate seats at risk of switching, only currently held democratic seats.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/consensus-2024-senate-forecast

Election polls - Where things stand as of 11 Oct 2023

Republican primaries – Trump 58%, 45 point lead

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

Presidential Trump vs. Biden – Trump 1-point lead over Biden

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Generic congressional ballot – Republicans 1-point lead

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

senate forecast – Republicans are heavily favored to gain West Virginia from the democrats which it seems most democrats will get their wish and be rid of Manchin. The remaining 3 states currently listed as tossups are all held by democrats or an independent caucusing with the democrats, Ohio, Brown, Brown slightly favored, Montana, Tester, republican slightly favored, Arizona, Sinema, pure tossup. There are no republican senate seats at risk of switching, only currently held democratic seats.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/consensus-2024-senate-forecast

It seems to me, that for Trump to be leading Biden in the polls, is either because the polls are skewed, or there are democrats now voting for Trump.

Our country is doomed!

Or, a large segment of the voting population is currently ignoring the polls and not responding yet.

No, democrats aren’t voting for Trump. It’s Biden whom independents have soured on. Remember Biden won independents in 2020 by 13 points, 54-41 with 5% voting third party against both Biden and trump. The average among independents today is Trump 31%, Biden 27%, other 12%, not sure 6%, will not vote 23%. The last thing independents want is a rematch in 2024. A lot of independents who didn’t vote in 2016 because of their disliked and unwantedness of both Trump and Clinton, went to the polls in 2020 to vote against Trump, for Biden. Although their votes weren’t necessarily for Biden, just against Trump. In 2024 most of those independents voters who stayed home in 2016 but voted in 2020 are planning on staying home again in 2024. They refuse to choose between in their minds, two unwanted and disliked candidates. There’s no love out there, especially among independents for either Trump or Biden. Even among Democrats, there’s no excitement for Biden. But I imagine the hatred for Trump will get them to the polls.

You have this - Two-thirds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters surveyed by CNN and SSRS from 25 to 31 August said they would prefer someone other than Biden. Among those voters, 18% specified another candidate but the overwhelming majority – 82% – said they “just want to see someone besides” the current president.

The above taken from: Majority of likely Democratic voters say party should ditch Biden, poll shows

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/sep/07/joe-biden-poll-2024-election-democrats

The bottom line is Trump is just as disliked and unwanted as he was in 2020. But Biden has dropped down to Trump level in the dislike and unwanted to become the next president column. There’re way too many reasons for this for me to go into without writing a book. The major cause of the tie between Trump and Biden is independents, the election deciders. They want someone else other than either Trump or Biden. It’s that simple. But they’re not going to get it. The result, many will stay home and not vote, others who do vote will vote third party against both Biden and Trump, ALA 2016.

Thanks for explaining perotista. I didn't realize the independents were so dispersed.

2024 is going to be a nail biter while our democracy hangs in the balance. I know what my gut is telling me, but I hope it's wrong!

Most partisans of both major parties think independents as moderates or centrist. Which isn’t the case. You have independents way to the right of the Republican Party and way to the left of the Democratic Party. However, independents can be placed into basically 3 different categories, independents lean republican, independents lean democratic and true or pure independents with no leans. Then to throw a monkey wrench into what I said above, you find quite a lot of independents who support the republicans on some issues, oppose them on other issues. Same for supporting and opposing the democrats, they’ll support them on some issues and oppose them on others. Independents can truly be a wildcard where it's dangerous to forecast where they’ll come down or vote for. This idea that independents are somewhere in-between both major parties ideological wise isn’t true. They can be conservative on some issues, liberal on others. As an example, you’ll find a lot of independents pro-choice and pro-2nd amendment at the same time. You’ll find a lot of them very fiscal conservative, but socially liberal or vice versa.

Only 32% of independents approve of the overall job Biden is doing 59% disapprove, 30% of independents have a positive view of Trump, 59% a negative view. 62% of independents think Biden is too old to run for a second term, but 65% have grave concerns about Trump and his legal problems. To top all of this off, 69% of independents don’t want Biden to run again, 64% don’t want Trump to run again either.

So, where independents finally come down is anyone’s guess. All I can tell you is that today, they dislike and don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to become the next president. What they’re or I should say most independents are looking for is someone other than Biden or Trump. It could be RFK Jr. running as an independent or it could be whoever the candidate is for the no labels party. Or they may decide to vote for who they think is the lesser of two evils between Trump and Biden, the least worse candidate, the candidate they want to lose the least although they want both to lose. Who knows?

The only difference between RFK Jr and any generic NoLabels candidate is the amount of Qanon they believe in.
NoLabels is basically the Party of Harlan Crow and Clarence Thomas and RFK Junior is Timothy Mellon and that Overstock dot Com guy who contributed to the January 6th insurrection.

Think what one will about independents. They are the election deciders. Especially in national elections for the presidency. Although independents make up 45% of the electorate, about half aren’t interested in politics and never bother to vote. Independents make up only 30% or less of those who do vote. While the bases of the two major parties make up 55% of the total electorate, they make up 70% or a bit more of those who do vote. You can see the breakdown for the midterms via party in the link below.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

and for the 2020 presidential election.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

The two major parties are relatively even where their base is concerned. They tend to cancel each other out within a couple of points among those who do vote. As seen in the exit polls above. The fact that RFK Jr. is drawing 14% of the vote, mostly independents is something to take into consideration when viewing the up coming election from all Americans perspectives than just the loyal democratic partisan point of view. Which simply means Biden isn’t coming close to the 54% of the independents vote he garnered in 2020. He’s around 15 points below that. In fact, most polls show Trump with a point or two lead over Biden with other as the polls call third party voters and will not vote extremely high for the 2024 election. If one averages out for independents the other or third-party voters along with will not vote, the combined total is 34%. Compare that to 2020 when the combined total was 12% when Biden won independents 54-41 over Trump and to 2016 when the combined total was 26%. Trump won independents in 2016 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party.

Why is this important, the numbers point to a low voter turnout for 2024 along with a high third-party vote. Voter turnout in 2016 when both major party candidates were disliked and unwanted was 54% using VAP, total third-party vote 6%. In 2020 voter turnout was 62% with third party vote at 1.8%. Due to the disliked and unwantedness of both major parties candidates, I wouldn’t be surprised to see voter turnout below the 54% of 2016 and the third-party vote among those who do turnout higher than the 6% in 2016. At least that what the numbers are telling us today, although they could change tomorrow.

One last thing, 60% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 14. 56% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15. For most Americans, this rematch of an election is one made in hell. Hence the tie between Biden and Trump in all the recent polling. Not only recent but going back to January 2023, Trump and Biden has been within a point or two of each other. Drop below the first set of polls to see the graph below them on the second link below.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wyX9VrC.pdf

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Staying with elections, looking at the senate: Senate rankings: The 5 seats most likely to flip

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4255284-senate-rankings-the-five-seats-most-likely-to-flip/

Going with the numbers today, the democrats get their wish and will be rid of Manchin. Resulting in a 50-50 tie. Ohio and Montana probably will switch also. Although Arizona and Pennsylvania remain in Democratic hands. Results, a republican controlled senate 52-48.

I wouldn’t be one bit surprised to see the democrats regain the house while the GOP flips control of the senate. Although as of today, the democrats have 24 seats at risk of switch vs. the Republicans 22. The democrats have a slight advantage with less pure tossups 10-14 over the GOP, they also have 2 currently held republican seats as going solid democratic.

Anyone who can't see that the Republicans can't govern (they can't even pick a Speaker of the House) and have no platform is an idiot. The Rs fake investigations are just asinine.

There was a lot of handwringing in 2020 and 2022 about a R-takeover. Seems like a redux to get clicks.

These 34 R-Congress people who conspired to overthrow the 2020 Election exchanged 2,319 texts with Mark Meadows in their J6 scheme. What will Jack Smith do with them? Indictments of any or all will affect the 2024 election.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ)
Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA)
Rep. Billy Long (R-MO)
Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX)
Rep. Brian Babin (R-TX)
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND)
Rep. Mark Green (R-TN)
Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX)
Rep. Greg Murphy (R-NC)
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC)
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)
Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX)
Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA)
Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC)
Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN)
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH)
Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC)
Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA)
Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA)
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI)
Sen. David Perdue (R-GA)
Rep. Rick Allen (R-GA)
Rep. Bob Gibbs (R-OH)
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL)
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY)
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA)
Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL)
Rep. Fred Keller (R-PA)
Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC)
Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-GA)

I think what one needs to realize in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide, the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship is most Americans have a hard on for, I should say against both major political parties.

Neither Party Well-Liked, but GOP Holds Advantage on Issues

https://news.gallup.com/poll/511979...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

and you have this - How Do Americans Feel About Politics? ‘Disgust Isn’t a Strong Enough Word’

https://www.yahoo.com/news/americans-feel-politics-disgust-isn-143400959.html

Then you have this, folks are just fed up with politics and have stopped paying much attention to politics. Only 32% of all Americans follow politics close these days. 38% of Republicans, 37% of Democrats, but only 27% of independents which make up 45% of the electorate, the election deciders.

U.S. Attention to Political News Slips Back to Typical Levels

https://news.gallup.com/poll/513128...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Interest in politics is definitely waning among Americans as a whole.

For weeks in late 2020 and early 2021, Mike Johnson (R-LA) had been inventing reasons for other Republican Congressmen to defy their oath of Office.

In early December 2020, the Texas attorney general filed a long-shot appeal citing an array of unproven claims of fraud and other irregularities and asking the U.S. Supreme Court to invalidate the Pennsylvania results on similar constitutional grounds.

Johnson drafted a supporting brief that focused on the constitutional argument. As chairman of the Republican Study Committee, he pushed its members to sign the brief, and he also wrote an email to all Republican lawmakers warning in bold red letters that Mr. Trump would be tracking their response. “He said he will be anxiously awaiting the final list to review,” Johnson wrote.

Decent Americans will draw a line at those who attempt to destroy democracy.

The selection of Mike Johnson for Speaker of the House will not bode well for Republicans in 2024.

Personally Rick, I don’t think most Americans give an owl’s hoot who is speaker of the house. Heck, over 30% of all Americans didn’t know who McCarthy was, over 40% have no idea who Hakeem Jeffries is. We’re back to that 32% of all Americans who follow politics closely which means 68% don’t. That shouldn’t be a surprise. On average 55% vote in presidential elections, meaning 45% don’t care who’s president. Midterms are much lower averaging around 40% who turnout to vote.

I can tell you this, over the last 3 weeks the needle for the generic congressional ballot hasn’t moved. People are still planning on voting for the same congressional party, candidates they were planning on voting for prior to the ouster of McCarty and all the chaos that occurred since then.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

I've been spending a lot of time lately at Fox News.com in their comments section. The commenters at Fox News absolutely care. It's interesting to see a lot of anti-Trump posts there, and a lot of anti-MAGA posts. I would say it's 75/25 in the comments sections. 75% against Trump and MAGA.

This only started as the GA 19 defendants started pleading guilty. I've been pleasantly surprised.

Dems are picking up three house seats: Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina due to greedy, cartoonish GOP gerrymandering the Courts don't like.

An interesting scenario is rising considering that that most Americans don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run again. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 16. 58% of all Americans don’t want Trump to run again either, question 17.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_bpzPgoE.pdf

Add to the above the most recent Quinnipiac poll that shows Biden 36%, Trump 35%, RFK Jr. 19%, West 6%, someone else 1%. That’s 26% of all Americans stating they’d vote for someone other than Trump or Biden. Add the no labels party to this, especially if they come up with name recognized candidates with some good financial backing. You could have 30 or maybe 40% of all Americans voting for someone other than Biden or Trump.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881

The possibility exists where all the independent candidates, RJK Jr. West, no labels, Libertarian, Constitutional, etc. parties received more votes combined than either Trump or Biden received individually on their own or each received. But a combined third party/independents vote wins no states, it’s how they perform individually allowing either Trump or Biden winning the states in the electoral college with 30%, 33%, 35% of the vote.

I enjoy your analysis, my friend. I have a different take:
1) it's too early for meaningful polling, which doesn't mean that the uninformed don't influence the poll results.
2) once these fringe candidates get exposure, they will sink like a stone - like DeSantis.
3) the real election will be between Biden and Trump - a rerun of 2020. Notwithstanding considerable turbulence, the result is likely to be very similar.
4) Of course, in the next year major events which will influence the election will occur. Many are predictable - Trump trials, a Biden health crisis, a foreign affairs disaster, a climate disaster - but others may come out of left field. Trump would never have been elected without James Comey announcing an ineffectual and unnecessary "reopening" of a closed investigation. Who saw that coming?

I think 2024 will be more like 2016 than 2020. The reason is independents which you call uninformed voters. Which probably for the most part, you’re correct as they don’t pay much attention to politics until an election nears. In 2016 Trump won independents 46-42 over Clinton with 12% voting third party. 6% of the total vote went to unknown and unheard-of candidates like Johnson, Stein, Castle, McMullin etc. None of them had any money, no political ads, no way to get their message out. They were only a third name on the ballot that wasn’t Trump nor Clinton.

In 2024 you’ll have RFK Jr., a well-known last name who seems to be raising some good money along with whoever the no labels party runs which will probably be a prominent politician such as Manchin, Hogan or someone akin to them. The no labels party has been promised some good money from donors if they run a candidate. All of this very unlike 2016 when third parties were outspent 1.9 billion for the two major parties, Clinton 1.2 billion, Trump 700 million rounding off to 2 million dollars for all third parties. Compare that to 2020, Biden 1.6 billion, Trump 1.1 billion or a total of 2.7 billion to third parties total spending of 3 million plus change. The two major parties gets their funds, their tens and sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars from corporations, wall street firms, lobbyist, special interests, super, mega, rich individual donors, etc.

Yes, it’s very early and third-party candidates have a habit of slipping lower and lower in the polls the closer we get to an election. But who will these today third-party stating voters vote for? Unknown at this time. Although I do agree, Trump’s trials and possible convictions next year will probably be the turning point in Biden’s favor. Many will probably leave Trump, but won't go to Biden. They'll probably go to third party candidates or stay home since they detest Biden and are pro-Trump. either way, it votes taken from Trump which is a huge plus for Biden.

To all of you who don't want Biden for a litany of reasons, please take note of how one well known conservative pundit reacted to Trump's candidacy in 2016:

"I am endorsing Hillary, and all her lies and all her empty promises," O'Rourke continued. "It's the second-worst thing that can happen to this country, but she's way behind in second place. She's wrong about absolutely everything, but she's wrong within normal parameters."


Take a very long look at those last four words...wrong within normal parameters.
What he's saying is, Trump is nowhere near normal parameters, nowhere near rational, nowhere near sane. P.J. O'Rourke's brand of conservatism morphed into a brand of conservatism being remade by fear, with Trump as the ringleader in that effort. There's only one outcome for right wing politics remade by fear and that outcome is dictatorial fascism, the likes of which even O'Rourke could not predict if he was still alive.

Please, even if you despise Biden, even if you're a Republican, even if you're a hardcore socialist, please try to remember the need for the United States to stay within normal parameters.
Because if we don't, it may very well cost us the world.

Jeffery, I’m positive there’s not a single person on this site that wants Trump to win the next presidential election. It isn’t anyone on this site that you have to worry about. But when you look at all of America outside of this site that’s may be a different story. Going over a myriad of polls and articles especially those polls which gives the option of third party or other category, will not vote and undecided, what they show, making this simple, around a third of voters in Trump’s corner, a third or so in Biden’s corner and a third that don’t want neither one to become the next president stating they’ll vote third party or not vote at all. It’s this later third that will decide the election.

For them this isn’t a binary or a zero-sum election between Biden and Trump. They have other options such as voting third party which many will or just staying home and not voting because they dislike and don’t want neither major party’s candidate to be the next president. I think it’s high past time for everyone to start listening to what most Americans want or don’t want when it comes to next year’s election. Perhaps it way too late for that. Regardless, as I said before, I think Trump sitting in a courtroom as the defendant in a criminal trial or two will be the deciding factor.

Election update, Trump and Biden are still in a basic tie in only a two-candidate race and are still in a basic tie in a 4 candidate race giving the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Two candidate race, Trump 46.7%, Biden 45.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

4 candidate race, Biden 36%, Trump 35%, RFK Jr. 19%, West 8%, Other 1%. Question 5 below the narrative.

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3881

But Biden has a problem - Poll: A majority of Democrats want new candidate to challenge Biden in 2024 primary

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-a-m...nge-biden-in-2024-primary-100031348.html

The generic congressional ballot is also tied. Each party has 23 at risk of switching seats up for next year’s elections.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

With Manchin’s retirement, West Virginia is now rated as solid republican, a gain of at least one seat for the Republicans. Ohio, Montana, Arizona currently held Democratic seats are all rated pure tossups. There are no Republican held seats at risk for next year’s election in the senate.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-senate-election/consensus-2024-senate-forecast

This brings up an interesting scenario that I think if more probable than not.

Ex-Bush Strategist Predicts Exactly When Donald Trump Will Be Convicted

https://news.yahoo.com/ex-bush-stra...7.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=0_00

Interesting poll/article on young people voting in 2024. Although this poll just addresses the 18-29 age group, lack of enthusiasm to go vote in 2024 for all age groups is low compared to 2020. But what this shows is 49% of the age group 18-29 said they’d definitely vote compared to 65% who voted in 2020.

Younger voters appear less likely to vote in 2024, despite previous record: Survey

https://news.yahoo.com/younger-voters-appear-less-likely-150828544.html?.tsrc=1026

Yesterday, December 12, 2023, NY’s top court issued an order for redistricting by February was first filed on June 28, 2022. This decision could endanger the seats of five GOP Congressmen, as well as flipping the seat recently vacated by George Santos.

Can you say Speaker Hakeem Jeffries?

This would so frustrate the MAGAts attempt to impeach ol' Joe.

Today, looking at the House, both major parties have 23 seats at risk of switching. Where the districts are depending on voter turnout, even though the at-risk seats are even, the democrats in my opinion stand a better chance of retaining most of their at-risk seats than the republicans do. A gain of 5 seats would be a reasonable prediction at this point for the democrats. The republicans currently have a 220-213 advantage with 2 vacant seats. A gain of 5 seats in November of next year depending on the results of the two special elections this year would give the democrats between 218-220 seats and control. Of course, all of this will change as time moves on.

The senate is another matter. West Virginia is a lost cause; it will go republican. Ohio and Montana are two more states leaning in the GOP direction with no currently held republican seats at risk, they’re safe. If this were to hold, the republicans would regain control of the senate with the democrats in control of the house. They switch control of the chambers each now holds a majority.

Presidential wise, Trump leads in the popular vote in just a two-candidate race, 47.2% to 44.1% over Biden. Which means the pollster gave the respondent only two choices, Trump or Biden, no independent or third-party choice.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

Electoral college wise, Biden leads Trump 247-235 with 4 states in the tossup column, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus-2024-presidential-election-forecast

But in a poll that includes independent RFK Jr. Cornell West, you have Trump 41%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 16%, West 4%,

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24130797/cnn-poll-on-2024.pdf

Another has Trump 38%, Biden 35%, RFK Jr. 17%, West 3%, Stein 3%

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us11152023_regvoter_ufse25.pdf

Interesting that 20-25% of all Americans are as of today planning on voting third party or independent if the rematch of Biden vs. Trump occurs which seems inevitable. This speaks of the dislike and unwantedness of many Americans, especially independents who don’t want neither major party candidate to become their next president. Again, all of this will change over time. 61% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, question 14. 56% don’t want Trump to run again either, question 15.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_y2MuS3t.pdf

Hence, the high third party/independent vote when those polled are given the choice of more candidates than just Biden and Trump.

While there maybe 23 seats that may flip on November '24, I'm talking next month in January '24. Five GOP seats are going away in NY.

I’m not quite sure I follow you. If the districts in NY must be redrawn, those new districts wouldn’t take effect until after the Nov 2024 elections. It’s much like the Alabama case where the SCOTUS ruled their current map unconstitutional or in violation of the voting rights act. Alabama was made to redraw their map which they did. But the results of the 2022 midterms remain until the new election in Nov 2024.

New York as for republicans have these districts at risk of switching for NY for the Nov 2024 election. NY-03 Vacant, NY-04 Anthony D'Esposito, NY-17 Mike Lawler, NY-19 Marc Molinaro, NY-22 Brandon Williams.

Currently Democratic held seats I think stands a good chance of switching – AK 1, OH 9, ME 2, MI 7, MI 8, OH 13, PA 7, PA 8, WA 3. A total of 9 seats. Currently Republican held seats I think stands a good chance of switching – AL 2, CA 13, CA 22, CA 27, CA 45, NV 3, NY 3, NY 4, NY 17, NY 19, NY 22, OR 5. A total of 12 seats. Keep in mind all of this is dynamic and changes all the time. Having a good chance doesn’t mean they will. But the above districts have the best chance of switching. Which if I were to make a forecast based on the above, risky this far out, I’d say either party could gain or lose 5 seats. As the generic congressional ballot shows the same. A pure tossup as for control.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html

Michigan districts are to be redrawn as well...before any election.

...and now Wisconsin:

...or they can do it before like MI and WI.

Here's the list of the top 10 senate seats that may switch. The top 8 are all democratic held seats with 9 and 10 on the list being Texas and Florida. Good read.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/10-senate-seats-most-likely-100025381.html

This is most interesting. Pundits on the electoral college give Biden the edge in the electoral college forecast 260-235 with 4 tossup states, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Even with Trump leading in the popular vote 46.5 to 44.3 over Biden.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/sabatos-crystal-ball-2024-president

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

It seems very possible Biden could win the presidency via the electoral college while losing the popular vote. Much like Trump in 2016 and G.W. Bush in 2000 did. Of course, both the electoral college polling numbers along with the nationwide popular vote are dynamic and change constantly. This is also as of today, not 10 months from now. It does seem the democrats today have the electoral college advantage, not the Republicans.

What about the other candidate(s)? Those third party candidates like the No Labels group and whoever else is going to run? That is what is going to allow Trump to get in office again. They will suck away from the Biden voters. Nothing will suck anyone away from Trump.

Okay, there’re very few polls that list more than two candidates, Trump and or Biden. One that does is Quinnipiac which shows Biden 36, Trump 38, RFK Jr. 16, West 3, Stein 3.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us12202023_regvoter_uopw25.pdf

The thing is we don’t know on how many state ballots those third party or independent candidates will be on. This is the reason this far out there are a dearth of polls with more choices than just Trump and or Biden. RFK Jr. has qualified to be on the ballot in Utah with working proceeding to be on the ballot in ten more states. Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Texas.

https://apnews.com/article/robert-k...-ballot-863513ec2bf75d1efc9b202cb8ddcc4a

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-ballot-access/

In 2020 the Green Party was on 38 state ballots, the Libertarian on 49 with a bunch of other third parties on 1-4 state ballots. Far as I know, West hasn’t started to get on any state ballots yet.

The only folks I see advocating for RFK Jr are Libertarians who don't like Trump or ol' Joe.

I don’t think it’s so much advocating for RFK Jr. What we have is about a quarter of the electorate looking for someone other than Biden or Trump be that RFK Jr. Cornell West, Jill Stein, the Libertarian or whoever the no labels party settles on. Perhaps Manchin, Hogan, Romney or someone else. RFK Jr. just happens to be in the news more than the others. He also has the Kennedy name.

It's basically a lot of independents that are looking for someone else. They’re not going to get it. Although in 2016 12% of independents did vote third party with a lot more staying home and not voting due to their dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Clinton. We have the same dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Biden by independents going into 2024. Independents made up 40% of the electorate in both 2016 and in 2020, at least according to Gallup, so it’s easy to compare.

2016 independents made up 26% of those who voted, approximately 35.6 million which 12% voted third party or 4.3 million. In 2020 independents made up 29% of those who voted, approximately 46.4 million in which 5% voted third party, 2.3 million. Which 11 million more independents voted in 2020 than voted in 2016. The question is will those 11 million more independents vote in 2024 or stay home like they did in 2016? If they do vote, will they choose between Trump and Biden or pass on both by voting third party? Time will tell.

Would I welcome a significant primary challenger to Biden right now?
Only if it's obviously someone who has the juice, the electability, overwhelming popularity and a level of confidence and competence that is absolutely undeniable, even to Joe.

It would have to be someone who is so damn good that even Joe might consider volunteering to pass the torch.
But I have little to no worries that Joe can win the election.
I would entertain shuffles in the Veep slot but it's not as if I think Kamala is terrible, she's just been more of a behind the scenes Veep, which plenty of Veeps down through history HAVE been before her.

She is not a Dick Cheney. But gimme someone who is absolutely incredible like I talked about above and....sure okay, let's consider that option. They COULD BE a take charge Veep who reinforces Joe and is prepared in the event Joe DOES have to step aside. But that IS the historic role OF ALL Veeps.
LBJ got the job handed to him under worse circumstances, but let's remember, the government and the party were prepared for that possibility all along.

So it's not as if it's much different. Joe Biden doesn't have a wiped camshaft or a catastrophic connecting rod failure in the offing.

"Oh, Joe's a little old and a little tired, let's go ahead and give it to Trump!"
Are you ****ing kidding me? ????

I say unless RFK Jr., the no labels party or anyone else is well financed to the tune of at least a billion dollars, they won’t have a chance of winning. Since 1960 the candidate which raised and spent the most money won the presidential election with 2 exceptions. 1964 and 2016. 2016 saw Clinton spend 1.2 billion to Trump’s 647 million. In 2020 Biden raised and spent 1.6 billion to Trump’s 1.1 billion. Want to know who’ll win in 2024, follow the money. In third place was poor little Jo Jorgensen at less than 3 million dollars.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

https://www.opensecrets.org/2020-presidential-race

The feeling or thinking of this quarter of the electorate is not to give it to Trump. They don’t want Trump, but they don’t want Biden either. It’s to give it to someone other than Trump and other than Biden. They’re searching for that someone else. I’d say as time goes by, most of that quarter of the electorate will come to realize they’re stuck with the realistic choice of between Trump and Biden. That there isn’t any other viable candidate that they so earnestly searching for. It’s early, there’s still a Pacific Ocean worth of water to flow under the election bridge.

But I’d also say I think 2024 will be more akin to 2016 than 2020 with low voter turnout and a high third party vote due to the dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. Exactly like 2016 was. The difference, 2016 voter turnout 54%, third party vote 6%. 2020 voter turnout 62%, third party vote 1.7%. I think Biden will win, but with less than 50% of the vote, of those who do vote which will be a lot less than in 2020. .

Here's how most Americans feel about the rematch. - America Stares Down a Trump-Biden Repeat in Disbelief and Denial

https://www.yahoo.com/news/america-stares-down-trump-biden-173316524.html

Wow, those are some conspiracy theories. Michele Obama? Really?!?
I didn't see one peep though about the threat to our democracy.
I believe it will be a rematch. I don't deny it at all. My concern is, the outcome will be won by Trump this time! I know the numbers might not point that way, but I think it will be Trump and the end to our democracy!

Trump will #DieInPrison before he ever steps foot in the WH again.

I hope you're right Rick. I'm just not that confident. And even less confident that Trump will ever spend time in prison.

The numbers state Trump and Biden are basically tied today. What you have if one delves deep into the polls is rounding off, 40% of all Americans supporting Trump, 40% supporting Biden, with 20% looking, searching, wanting someone other than either Trump or Biden. Which puts the bottom line at 60% of all Americans not wanting Biden reelected, 60% not wanting Trump to regain the White House. This is where things stand today. What neither major party realizes is the anti-fever or perhaps disdain this latter 20% have for both major party candidates. Both major parties are acting like this latter 20% don’t exist. Both major parties think this latter 20% will in the end vote for their candidate. I don’t believe that is the case. I think most of that 20% will either vote third party, RFK Jr., No Labels, Green, Libertarian, vote for someone not named Biden or Trump or they’ll stay home and not vote at all. Refusing to choose between Trump and Biden. Their distaste for both is that high. Of course, you’ll have some that will choose. How many, that remains to be seen.

This is the harsh realities of where things stand today in the Biden vs. Trump rematch. This could change tomorrow or next week or next month or never. To put it mildly, most Americans aren’t happy with the choices given them by both major parties. I think everyone needs to be aware of this. What can be done to change this dynamic, I’d say nothing. It’s already written in stone.

It's sad. I've been voting for the last 45 years. I don't recall ever voting FOR someone. I always seem to have to vote for the lessor of two evils. No one has ever thrilled me enough to actually vote FOR them.

I’ve been voting since 1968 when one had to be 21. Most of the time I have voted for a candidate because I wanted that candidate to win. Although I have been known to vote third party when I want both major party candidates to lose. I don’t think I ever voted for a candidate just because I decided he was the lesser of two evils or the least worse major party candidate or the candidate I wanted to lose the least. 2016 was the most recent example, both Trump and Clinton disgusted me so much, I voted third party so my vote would be officially registered as being against both. No lesser of two evils for me.

There’s been a couple of times where I voted for the losing candidate, then voted for the winning candidate over my choice, the losing candidate when reelection time came as I thought he did a very good job. The most recent example of this was in 2008, I voted for McCain then in 2012 for Obama over Romney.

I’ll add this, only one election since Gallup started keeping track of favorable/unfavorable in 1952 were both major party candidates were under 50% favorable and over 50% unfavorable. 2016, Clinton 38% favorable/56% unfavorable vs. Trump 36% favorable/60% unfavorable. We had another election where only one candidate was under 50% favorable and over 50% unfavorable. Trump in 2020 at 43% favorable/56% unfavorable. FYI Biden was at 52% favorable/46% unfavorable. There was another election where one candidate was viewed under 50% favorable but wasn’t over 50% unfavorable. 1964, Goldwater was seen 43% favorable/47% unfavorable. All other presidential candidates since 1952 were seen above 50% favorable and under 50% unfavorable.

But it looks like 2024 will be the second election where both major party candidate are seen under 50% favorable/over 50% unfavorable by all Americans. Biden currently at 39% favorable/55% unfavorable vs. Trump 41% favorable/54% unfavorable.

Maybe I'm just too picky. LOL

Not me. I've been enthusiastic repeatedly, especially for Obama. I'm an enthusiastic Biden supporter. How one can look at the progress he's made and not want more of it just baffles me - economy, foreign policy, democratic norms, equality - all improved under Biden.

But, given the obvious evil on the other side, how is it a contest? It's not the lesser of, it's just evil versus "not evil".

IMO, this election is different than any other. I agree one side is evil and one side is not. But, most times, neither side is evil, just have different values.

I lean towards the left, so I would vote for Biden, but he is far from my ideal candidate. In some things, he is too far left on for me. Trump is totally out of the question so that will be a no vote there from me.

Unique certainly. A former president vs. a sitting president. Only once in our history has that happened. 1892 when Grover Cleveland defeated the sitting president Benjamin Harrison. 2024 is also unique in that it is the second time that both major party presidential candidates are view much more negatively than positively by most Americans. 2016 was the previous election, Clinton 38% favorable, 56% unfavorable. Trump 36% favorable, 60% unfavorable. In every other election except two were both candidates viewed favorably by a majority of Americans, over 50% except in 1964, Goldwater at 43% favorable/47% unfavorable and again with Trump in 2020 43% favorable/56% unfavorable. But LBJ and Biden were viewed favorable by a majority of Americans.

2024 will become the second election in our history with both major party candidates seen by less than 50% favorable and higher than 50% unfavorable. Currently Biden is seen positively/favorable by 39% of all Americans, unfavorable by 55%. Trump at 41% favorable, 54% unfavorable.

This is how all Americans view both major party candidates at this time. This is why we have a quarter to a third of all Americans wanting, searching for another viable candidate other than the two major party candidates. Why do I point this out and do so constantly? I think everyone needs to know what is going on nationally, how all Americans feel, think, want or in this case of the rematch, don’t want. 64% of all Americans want other candidates according to a Harvard CAPS poll. This isn’t a feel-good election. It’s a very scary election.

Myself, I never voted for Trump and never would. He’s a scumbag to put it mildly. I’d vote for Atilla the Hun before I’d even think about voting for Trump. I don’t think Biden is the right candidate to defeat Trump, Biden gives Trump at least as of today a bit more than a 50-50 chance of regaining the white house. But that doesn’t mean I’m not in Biden’s corner as far as voting is concerned. I am. It’s just I think folks ought to know how all of America are viewing this election and are viewing both major party candidates.

This from Gallup explains the current election situation much better than I could ever do. It goes into depth.

Felonies, Old Age Heavily Count Against Candidates

STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Few Americans willing to say they’d back a candidate charged with a felony
Nearly as many reluctant to vote for someone older than 80
Vast majority would back a woman, Hispanic adult, Catholic or Black adult

https://news.gallup.com/poll/609344...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Even if a third party would get in that I would want to vote for, this election I think I would not be able to vote for them. I already think Trump will win if there is a third party candidate, and if I voted for a third party, it would help Trump get elected.

It creates quite the quandary to have someone that you would want to vote for, knowing that it would most likely cause a dictator to take control of the country and take our democracy away from us the people!

If one is following this election based on the whole electorate one would find that most independents take this Trump would be a dictator or he’s out to destroy democrats as nothing more than campaign rhetoric, a vote for me negative attack ad. 59% of all Americans think the democrats are using this as a scare tactic. They’re not taking this seriously. We’re going to have an election in which most Americans do not want the sitting president reelected, where most Americans don’t want the former president to regain the white house. Where a majority of Americans are looking for someone other than Trump and or Biden. So far, it’s this simple.

To the question, If Donald Trump was the Republican nominee and Joe Biden the Democratic nominee, would you consider an independent moderate candidate running for the presidency in 2024 or not? 55% of all Americans answered yes which included 64% of independents, the election deciders. Keep in mind the question used the word consider which doesn’t mean they’d vote for this moderate independent. But it does show the total dissatisfaction with both major party choices.

With Biden it boils down to his age, the fear for his mental fitness, the perceived bad job he has done as president. With Trump it’s his legal problems, the fear he’s a threat to democracy, his mental stability, his overall obnoxious personality along with his vindictiveness. 61% of all Americans think this country needs a new president, but not Trump. I don’t think neither major party realizes how much their candidate is unwanted by most of America. Regardless of what the rest of America thinks, wants or don’t want, Biden will get my vote.

The country is in a sour mood when it comes to incumbents.

POLITICS - FEBRUARY 2, 2024 - U.S. Voters: Biden, Most in House Don't Deserve Another Term
38% say Biden, 24% say most members of Congress deserve reelection
55% say their own member of Congress is deserving of another term
Biden's reelect score worse than prior incumbents early in election year

https://news.gallup.com/poll/609602...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

It's going to be in an even more sour mood when they realize that after all those endless months of
"STOP THE STEAL!!!" it comes down to this.
This can't be repeated enough.

True the Vote fails to reveal evidence of Georgia voting fraud claims



Allegation of ballot collection scheme amplified by ‘2000 Mules’

Interesting week politically from an election standpoint. First Manchin stated he won’t run for the presidency leaving no labels without a presidential candidate as Romney earlier said he wouldn’t either. Although No Labels has ballot access in at least 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. With signature gatherers have another 14 states in their sights between now and November. They’re left with no candidate with name recognition or experience. Their 3 biggest hopes, Manchin, Romney has said no, Hogan has opted to run for the senate in Maryland.

Then there is RFK Jr. whose campaign seems to be following apart. He has fallen from 22% in the polls at the end of December to 7% as of 14 Feb 2024. Trump 40, Biden 38, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 1. Compare the 14 Feb numbers to that of 28 Dec 2023, Trump 35, Biden 33, Kennedy 22, West 2, Stein 2. Seems voters are beginning to leave their support for a 3rd party candidate for choosing between the two major party candidates. The lesser of two evils choice or for the major party candidate they want to lose the least. Then there is this about age and indictments.

“Voters were asked if President Biden’s age raises serious doubts about voting for him in 2024, and separately if former President Donald Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious concerns about voting for him. Voters are nearly equally concerned: 58% say Biden’s age raises serious doubts in their minds about voting for the president and 42% say it is not a serious consideration of theirs, while 57% say Trump’s criminal indictments raise serious doubts in the mind about voting for Trump and 43% say it is not a serious consideration of theirs.

Among independent voters, 54% say Biden’s age raises serious doubts for them, while 61% say Trump’s criminal indictment raises serious doubts.
Within the candidates’ own parties, 45% of Democrats say Biden’s age raises doubts, while 30% of Republicans say the same of Trump’s indictments.”

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/f...against-trump-among-prominent-democrats/

If we're honest with each other, and we ARE...

"No Labels" IS the "LABEL"...it's the House Wine of the Harlan Crow Estate and a couple of Facebook top execs.

So let's all, and by all I mean all of us in the United States, let's all stop kidding each other.
No Labels has labeled itself no matter how hard they try to put one over on the American people.

It's almost like Phoebe Buffay's twin sister Ursula on "Friends".

Are we really all just a bunch of Joey Tribianis?

Jeffrey - I don’t know how well no labels will do or even if they’ll field a candidate. I assume they will as they’ve worked hard to gain ballot access in 14 states and probably will succeed in another 15-20. As far as I know, read, no labels don’t have anyone else in mind. Although what they’re doing behind the scenes, out of the media’s eye, I haven’t a clue. I do know RFK Jr. is receding, his poll numbers are dropping. That he hasn’t been able to gain ballot access outside of two states. That makes me wonder if RFK Jr. has basically given up. His staff is in turmoil, many have quit.

Maybe we’ll back to the original third parties, Libertarian, they somehow manage to get on all 50 state ballots. The Green Party which gets on around 30 and West. But as far as I know, West hasn’t succeeded in gaining any ballot access on any state ballot. Then we’ll have 20 or so third parties on one, two or three state ballots. Usually drawing well less than one percent of the vote in any of the states they’re on.

But we’re still left with around a quarter of the electorate wanting and looking for someone other than Biden and Trump. If not No Labels or RFK Jr. then who? I imagine most of that quarter looking for someone else will in the end decide between Trump and Biden as the candidate they want to lose the least. Then a good portion will probably stay home and not vote since they couldn’t find a candidate they wanted. The only thing I know for certain is that there’s very little enthusiasm for this rematch.

But it’s early, only 40% of all Americans have been paying a lot of attention to this upcoming election. That will change as we get closer to November. As folks attention turns toward the election, the numbers will change. What we have today is approximately 35% solidly in Trump’s corner, 35% in Biden’s with 30% either in the vote third party mode or not vote at all or undecided column. This time in 2016 we had 24% in the vote third party, not vote at all or undecided column. But in 2020 we had but 9% in the vote third party, not vote at all or undecided column.

With the SCOTUS decision behind us, with Super Tuesday voting beginning this AM, the results well known before the first vote is cast. A look at where the presidential election stands today. The overall picture without delving into depth as to why.
Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Three candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy
Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
Biden’s overall job approval - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating
Biden’s job approval on the issues - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues
Biden’s favorable/unfavorable - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden
Trump’s favorable/unfavorable - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump

In 2020 Biden lead Trump by 5.5 points on 5 Mar 2020.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
In 2016 Clinton lead Trump by 3.4 points
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

Third-party group No Labels is expected to move forward with a 2024 campaign, AP sources say

https://www.yahoo.com/news/third-party-group-no-labels-011044070.html

Far as I know, No Labels has ballot access in 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. Only Arizona in this lot is considered a swing state.

No labels is a label, it's Harlan Crow, the guy who's been openly bribing Clarence Thomas all this time and both of them getting away with it..
and a bunch of Harlan's like minded buddies who also hate the Rule of Law and democracy and all that shee-it.

Never in all my years have I seen an electorate so beaten down by a...no wait, I have seen it...but it was in Russia.
So, is that it, No Labels and all the other think tank funded insurrectionist loving outfits?
We're all gonna become Russians?
That's the plan, and we're all okay with it?

Regardless of how you put it or others say about it. There’s no doubting the fact that most Americans don’t want Biden reelected nor do they want Trump to regain the white house. This is why you seen 25% of the electorate latch on to RFK Jr. a couple of months ago. But he was a fleeting fancy and has done nothing to enhance his status or to gain ballot access outside of two states, Utah and New Hampshire.

No Labels may or may not be another passing fancy. Regardless, that doesn’t stop a quarter of the electorate to stop searching for someone other than Biden and Trump. What will that quarter of the electorate do once they find their other candidate not available other than the usual old third parties like the Libertarians, Green Party, Constitutional etc.? Two months ago, it was Trump 37, Biden 34 with Kennedy 20, West 3 and Stein 3. Today, with RFK Jr. souring with this Group of voters Trump 41, Biden 40 with Kennedy 9, West 3 and Stein 1 making up the rest.

You see about half of RFK Jr. voters from 2 months ago decided to choose between Biden and Trump. But if the no labels party fields a candidate, will those previously RFK Jr. supporters’ defect from Biden and Trump to the no labels candidate? No way to tell until no labels fields a candidate if they do.

I have no idea where to put this one. It dawns on me. I remember when Hillary Clinton lost the election to Trump. One of the main reasons is because she believed many supporters needed no attention - it lost her the election. Now we have Biden, seemingly, doing the same thing. All ads are to red states, etc. Blue states seem to be ignored. I wonder if the same thing that Hillary did is being done bye the Dems. I am in the state of Washington and we have no ads, no nuthin. Because they think they already got the state - hopefully not!

We will see, I guess...........

Jgw, I can’t tell you what went on in other states, but there were plenty of Clinton ads here in Georgia in 2016. This year over the last month or two, there’s been plenty of anti-Trump ads also. I suspect they’re being run by a PAC or some other pro-Biden or anti-Trump group than being run by the Biden Campaign. I haven’t seen a pro-Trump ad yet. Probably all the money for pro-Trump ads have gone to paying his legal bills.

2016, Clinton developed a strategy that would help her win more electoral votes than Obama did. She spent heavily and spent a lot of time and energy on red states Romney carried in order to accomplish her goal. In the meantime, she ignored states she thought she had in her hip pocket like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Why would she worry about them, they hadn’t gone Republican since 1984? That’s seven straight presidential elections those states went for the democratic candidate. I don’t know about campaign ads, but I do about visits to those states. Hillary made no campaign visits, stops or rallies in Wisconsin to Trump’s 5, Michigan was the same 6 for Trump 1 for Hillary. Pennsylvania, 8 for Trump 5 for Hillary. Hillary’s 5 included election eve visit to Pittsburgh.

Looking at all the state polls available for 2024, there’re only 3 states which one or the other candidate doesn’t lead them by 5 points or more. Less than 5 classifies those states as swing or tossup states. They’re Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The other 47 states, one or the other candidate is ahead today by 5 points or more. Trump has a one-point lead in Wisconsin, a 3.6 point lead in Michigan while Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 0.8 of a point.

Here's something else - The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-trump-rerun-nation-craving-164710271.html

Time to move on to 2024, senate. West Virginia is a goner as far as the Democrats are concerned. They wanted to be rid of Manchin, they are getting their wish. Although a MAGA republican will replace the centrist, moderate Manchin. But that’s what the democrats wanted. Montana and Ohio, pure tossups which could go either way. Going by state polls, the senate looks like this today, 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats,2 pure tossup states.

The house is another tossup as to who gains control. The GOP has a slight 2-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. At risk of switching seats, 22 Democratic, 21 Republican.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

Today, I would put the popular vote percentage wise as roughly, give or take a few points that today we have approximately 35% wanting Trump, 35% wanting Biden with 30% wanting neither. That 30% falls into 3 categories, undecided, those who are stating they’ll vote third party or not vote at all if the rematch occurs. Popular vote – Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Three candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy
Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Electoral college going by available state polls, there are only 3 states where one candidate or the other has less than a 5-point lead. Less than a 5 point lead equates to a swing state or a tossup state. Only 3 swing or tossup states if one is going by state polls. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump has a 1.0 point lead in Wisconsin, a 3.6 point lead in Michigan, Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 0.8 of a single point. This is as of today.

https://www.270towin.com/

I live in Washington state. I have yet to see a single Democratic ad. Perhaps I just don't watch enough TV. I have friends in other places and they feel the same way as I do. I REALLY don't want Trump anyplace but in jail. I think its important that the Dems get themselves shown everyplace. They may think that they got this or that state nailed down and needs nothing but I also know that if people are ignored they tend to say; Oh you don't care about me so I don't give a damn about you either.

I can be absolutely wrong on this one but I also remain concerned. Then, again, I also believe that the United States has waaaay too many people that seriously support a man who has a record of rape, theft, chiseling, lying, throwing people under the bus, (and the list goes on and on). It simply makes no sense. One of the problems, I think, is that the Republicans seem to be getting a LOT more exposure than the Democrats. My belief is that this is not a good thing. I don't know if its because media simply tends to give more exposure to the Republicans, or that the Republicans are simply better at getting their lies out to the populace. Perhaps I am just worrying myself for no reason.

Given the simple fact that the Republicans tend to make little errors in fact whilst the Democrats are simply silent just tends to make me really scared to death. The woman who make the Republican reply to the Biden speech and threw in a pretty good lie has been heavily covered. That is a good thing. However, that being said, I also know that Trump gives a speech, every day, and every speech is full of lies and they are simply ignored. We are also told that the Dems have the big bucks. One would think that every time Trump runs his mouth the least the Dems could do is call him on his lies.

Oh, Trump is now trying to get a debate with Biden. I remember the last one several years ago (maybe it was Hillary, in any case. He actually bullied Biden, Hillary or both. and got away with it! I can only wonder if that can also happen again.

Just saying..........

jgw - Trump trying to get a debate or debates with Biden surprises me. The RNC pulled out of the presidential debate commission, I thought that left the presidential debates dead in the water.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/politics/rnc-withdraws-from-presidential-debates/index.html

Trump is like that old showman who believes that there is no such thing as bad publicity, no publicity is bad. Trump’s outrageousness worked for him in 2016, making him the headliner in all news reports relegating Clinton to later in the news, back page so to speak. Trump knows how to get exposure from the media, good or bad, he doesn’t care as long as his name is out there.

The general election campaign usually doesn’t start until September, but with the super Tuesday results with both Biden and Trump sewing up enough delegates to cinch the nomination, it probably began the day after. Clinton made the mistake of visiting, pouring in money for ads in too many red states she had little to no chance of winning ignoring her own backyard. Ignoring Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan cost her the election. You’re correct there.

The anti-Trump ads has ceased here in Georgia. Perhaps they were Haley’s doings for the Georgia GOP primary on the 12 March. Who knows? They certainly didn’t help her if it was her doings.

These two research articles from Gallup and Pew Research let’s everyone know why Biden and Trump are now in a basic tie in the polls today considering the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.

Two candidate race where the only choices given were Trump and Biden - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Five candidate race, multiple choices - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Article One – Pew Research - About 1 in 4 Americans have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...favorable-views-of-both-biden-and-trump/

Article Two – Gallup - 29% in U.S. Say Neither Biden nor Trump Would Be Good President

https://news.gallup.com/poll/642911...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I find it most interesting that approximately a third of all Americans view both Biden and Trump negatively. Most of that third are independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisans which gave Biden the presidency by voting for him in 2020 by a 54-41 margin. That margin accounted for most of the 7 plus million votes Biden won the popular vote by. 2024 election is more in line with the 2016 election than the 2020 election. In 2016 25% of all Americans viewed both Clinton and Trump negatively.

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/pol...ans-dislike-presidential-candidates.aspx

Many reasons for all of this, although I’ll let you draw your own conclusions. I have always feared that Biden, a safe bet to defeat Trump in 2020 wasn’t the right candidate to ensure another Trump defeat in 2024. It’s a 50-50 tossup election whereas Biden never trailed Trump all of 2020, Trump has led in the polls in 2024 since September of 2023. See graph below the first set of polls for 2020 election. .

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

Nimrata Haley's base will not vote for Trump, no way, no how. Why? Nimrata's base won't vote an adjudicated sexual assaulter and adjudicated business fraudster, with 91-grand jury indictments who calls our troops "suckers" and "losers." Calling our troops "suckers" and "losers" was a bridge too far for Nimrata's base.


Trump needs ALL of the GOP. Trump has #NoPathToVictory

Additionally, MAGAts want unity. The unity thing is a two-way street. MAGAts won't have unity when they refer to other Republicans as a RINO [Republican In Name Only]

Strange ...

I keep polling in my peripherals. Pundits keep proclaiming Trump supporters have been abandoning the train, while the polls, as you point out, say tossup.

Despite the quality of candidates, this is a clear cut choice between someone who wants to destroys Democracy, and someone who has been a somewhat competent administrator of Democracy. This has become, not a choice between disparate policies, but a choice between authoritarianism and Democracy. I understand quite well how and why MAGA believes Trump is the right choice, but when properly framed I don't understand how ANY American would consider Trump as THE choice to uphold Democracy. Too bad this election is not about competing policy issues, but has become a Darwinian death match for the existence of American Democracy.

If polling says it is a tossup, then Trump wins. He has the infrastructure to win even if he loses. He has it on local and state levels, so election boards can arbitrarily throw out votes if Trump loses outright i.e. alleged fraud. At the federal level he has a delusional speaker who can manipulate the process forcing the election into the House, and if that is not enough, he has gun carrying MAGA inside Congress ready in case Trump calls for another assault on the Capitol.

Perhaps Americans deserve to be enslaved by MAGA.

The media needs the narrative of a tight race to keep eyeballs glued to them and to keep readers/viewers coming back and to generate ad revenue. It's a pretty sick game that they play.

Rporter, there’s been so much negative personal attacks during election campaigns over the last several decades, folks have become numb to them or don’t pay them any attention. So, when it is said that Trump is out to destroy democracy or will become a dictator, few pay attention. In fact, 59% of all Americans viewed this talk as nothing more than scare tactics by the democrats, a vote for me type of negative personal attack against Trump, an attempt to scare people from voting for Trump.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/HHP_Jan24_KeyResults.pdf

Why consider Trump? The reason is many folks feel they were better off under Trump than they are today under Biden. The old are you better off today than you were 4 years ago question. 46% of all Americans looking back on the Trump presidency rate his presidency excellent or good vs 33% for Biden so far. 65% of all Americans state the economy was good under Trump, 38% rate the economy good under Biden. 55% say Biden’s policies are making prices go up, only 17% go down. 34% of all Americans think Trump’s policies made prices go up, 44% said his policies made prices go down. Here’s the kicker, 34% of all Americans say democracy will be safe only if Biden wins, 33% state democracy will be safe only if Trump wins. 13% say democracy will be safe if either one wins, but 20% say democracy won’t be safe regardless of who wins between Trump and Biden.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-leads-biden-economy/

Most Americans, especially independents have short memories. They also can change their minds in a heartbeat. 4 years ago, independents flocked to the polls to get rid of Trump. They voted for Biden 54-41. Today, Trump leads among independents 40-35 with the rest in the vote third party, will not vote or undecided columns. Which is why Trump is slightly ahead of Biden in the polls today. The top two issues today are inflation/rising prices and immigration. Every other issue is way down the line in single digits as to their importance in deciding who to vote for.

Here's how all Americans view Biden’s handling of these two top issues.

Inflation 35.8% approve, 61,7% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/inflation

Immigration 31.8% approve, 63.7% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/immigration

Trump and Biden need each other. The only way one or the other can win is if they have each other as their opponent. Personally, I think Biden will carry the day. Especially if Trump goes on trial for either 1-6 or the classified documents prior to the election. But that isn’t a guarantee.

Yet these same people can't state any Trump policy that caused this - because there were none. Trump benefitted from eight years of Obama policy. Trump put asinine tarrifs into place. Trump hurt farmers and had to financially compensate them. Consumers goods prices rose because of Trump's tariffs. Trump had a negative effect on the economy especially in 2020.

Rick, presidents have always taken credit for a good economy, they have always gotten the blame for a bad economy. Presidents holler from the top of the mountain when the economy is good that it was their policies that caused the good times. Then try to shrink away when the economy goes sour. My own personal view is that the economy is like the weather, no president, no government controls it. The economy like the weather is going to do what its going to do. If presidents, government had control over the economy, we’d have all good times, ups, no bad times, down. We don’t. Sure, presidential policy can play around the edges of the economy much like seeding clouds can play with the weather. But no one controls or have much say on what the economy will do. Usually good times are global as is bad times. Sure, presidential policy can hurt one sector of the economy, but not the whole economy. Like you pointed out with the farmers. But that’s playing around the edges in my book.

But all previous presidents who has taken credit for a good economy causing the blame for inflation, rising prices, the economy in general to fall on Biden’s shoulder. The president is in charge, when things don’t go well, it’s the job of the president to fix it. He’s the leader, the one in charge, thus he's going to get credit or get the blame. It comes with the job. We’re going to have ups and downs regardless of what a president or government does with the economy. It’s rather simple, at least in my book. Biden’s getting the blame for inflation, rising prices only because he’s president, the one in charge, the leader of this nation. Had Trump won in 2020, most Americans would now be blaming him. If Clinton had won in 2016, then Trump won in 2020, people would be wanted her policies back much like they want Trump’s policies back today. It’s all about perceptions, about the one in charge, the president at the time and mostly it’s about all previous president taking credit for a good economy that they had little to nothing to do with which causes presidents, Biden today to be getting the blame.

All in all perotista's arguments for "the wisdom of independents" doesn't sound like a good advertisement for being an independent. If I didn't know better it's almost like saying independents really just want "the image of a strongman telling them what to think and do" without him actually BEING "a strong man"...just the appearance of it.

That's almost like wanting to force people into agreeing that WWE Wrestling is real.

Does that really sound like a good argument for being an independent, or does it sound more like an argument for being a sucker for media polling that was pre-designed to produce an already agreed upon desired polling result?

I bet twenty bucks that I can create a poll that says 65% of Americans want to contract terminal cancer if I hire enough think tanks to sell the idea of the benefits of terminal cancer to enough Americans.

Jeffrey, I never said independents were smart and full of wisdom. Only they’re the election deciders. Most independents don’t pay any or very little attention to politics until an election nears. They’re about as far from being a political junkie as one can get. Yet they’re the election deciders in this era of shrinking major parties. Independents has risen from 30% of the electorate in 2006 up to 42% today. What do independents want? I’d say a sense of wellbeing, a sense of safety, the feeling they’re life is improving and more. Pretty much what everyone wants. But their life doesn’t revolve around politics, they’re more interested in the price of a loaf of bread, eggs, hot dogs, etc. More interested in rooting for their favorite sports team, watching their favorite TV shows, taking care of family. All have a higher priority to them than politics. They’re not about to delve deep into the issues and do any research either. It’s the feeling they have. They feel that under Trump their lives were better than under Biden. That milk, bread, eggs, gas, housing, clothes, the essentials of life were cheaper under Trump. Fact is they were. They don’t care about the reason or reasons behind this, just that it was. So, who’s do they blame? Who’s in charge? It isn’t Trump.

According to Gallup, only 32% of all Americans follow news about national politics closely. Which can be broken down to 37% of democrats following the news about national politics closely, 36% of republicans with only 27% of independents who follow the national political news closely. This leaves 68% of all Americans who aren’t political junkies. This also leaves well over half of those who identify themselves with both major parties who aren’t political junkies either or don’t follow politics closely. It isn’t just independents.

Let’s face it, there aren’t that many Americans who are very interested in politics. On average we have 45% of all Americans who never bother to vote in a presidential election. That percentage rises to 60% who don’t have the time or care about voting in the midterms. Local elections when not held in conjunction to the presidential or midterm election, those who don’t bother to vote in them rises to 75-80%. We had a school board election last July in my county, only 11% of eligible voters voted.

The problem with humans is we need government to avoid total chaos.

The problem with government is humans.

It doesn't appear that getting rid of either one is an option...

I have been told that there are actually Republicans of the old stripe and have a history of working with Democrats to pass stuff. I read something, the other day, about some of the Democrats who seem to be a crazy as the republicans in the congressional house when it came to anything, including working with Republicans.

I do know that they were able to create a bill on the southern border stuff that Trump stopped (given this seems to never to noted by the Democrats hopefully somebody will remember this). But, other than that, they can't seem to be able to do anything and I wonder how much of that problem is Democratic as well as Republican.

Just wondering.............

What has the current the R-House done for the American people? NOTHING!!

Oh sure, the R-House has held hearings on Hunter's laptop and Hunter's d*ck pics (MTG entered the pics into the Congressional record), and held hearings on impeaching ol' Joe based on Russian disinformation. Rs seem to think all of this is worth a $172K public-funded annual salary.

Rs expecting to hold the majority after the 2024 election are sadly mistaken.

How would you say Trump is unfit to be dogcatcher, much less president, than to repeat what he has already made public?

It;s not about policy. Trump is unfit to occupy the WH. How could you make that clear. You have to get personal. He has been overseer of numerous scams which have been exposed. He has been indicted so many times I lost count. Of those he has been convicted as a fraudster and as a sexual predator. Thes are the in your face qualities which do not rely on ... they're coming to get him ... they want to keep him from being president .... etc.

What is his agenda? Retribution for perceived criminal behavior by the institutions of law i.e FBI, CIA, the courts, DoJ, etc.Anyone not agreeing with him will be indicted by HIS PERSONAL DoJ. He said it.

You call it negative personal attacks ... I say when it is true it is not negative, but accurate, and honest. That the American electorate can not figure this out, says a lot about how ignorant and stupid they are, and your posts simply prove my point.

I agree that Trump isn’t fit to be dogcatcher. The problem is this election is in the eyes of many as much about Biden as it is about Trump. Many, 56% of all Americans, 61% of independents think Biden has done a very poor job as president. That’s their disapproval of the job he’s done in their eyes.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating

They think Biden is too old to be an effective president for another term, that he’s losing it mentally. 73% of all Americans believe this while 42% say the same about Trump.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/03/poll-biden-too-old

Then there’s the fact many Americans feel they were personally better off under Trump than today, under Biden. It isn’t that they want Trump back in the white house, they don’t. But they don’t want Biden reelected either. Roughly 30% of all Americans feel this way which includes 37% of independents.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/HHP_Mar2024_KeyResults.pdf

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...favorable-views-of-both-biden-and-trump/

Biden’s president today, not Trump. That is probably the biggest factor here. In 2020 most had nothing to compare Biden to, he wasn’t Trump, that would do nicely. Today, with this rematch, they’re comparing presidencies. Comparing their own situation under both. Hence Biden has fallen down to Trump levels, 57% of all Americans including 61% of independents have a negative view of Biden, unfavorable. Trump 56% of all Americans view him negatively, unfavorably including the same percentage, 61% of independents.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_mTlzQOB.pdf

Personally, why these numbers. I think, believe Biden was the wrong candidate for the democrats to run against Trump. That almost any other democrat would be trouncing Trump. 2020 was all about Trump and his 4 years as president. He lost big. 2024 is about Biden and his 4 years as president as it is about Trump. This year it’s about both, not only Trump. That I think is very hard for the democrats to understand. If not impossible. For them, it’s all about Trump, for the rest of America, it’s about both.

Just curious. Is there a poll that shows what percentage of each party pays attention to politics? It seems to me that all citizens pay little attention to politics.
I'm just wondering if there is polling showing one specific party that pays more attention than the others?
I know that I, as an independent (no offense taken), must be a minority because I pay very close attention to the politics and am pretty much opposite of everything else you say characterizes an independent.

You type problem ... I type stark contrasting alternatives.

Most of your posts simply corroborate my contention the American electorate is ignorant and stupid. This should not be a problem making a decision on the fate of Democracy in America. One candidate has made it clear Democracy is for weaklings and other scum like liberals, while the other offers Democratic choices. You can disagree on policies but you can't consider the Death of Democracy as a viable choice.

It is what it is. The difference is I look at the entire picture, the entire forest to gauge what is going on and how all Americans are looking at this upcoming not wanted rematch. How many Americans do you think are buying this death to democracy and by who? Look at question 49. Do you think U.S. democracy and rule of law will be safe –
Only if Joe Biden wins 34%
Only if Donald Trump wins 33%
It will be safe if either wins 13%
It will not be safe either way 20%

https://www.scribd.com/document/710089283/cbsnews-20240303-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1

The bottom line is that both side believes only their side can save democracy and the rule of law, that democracy and the rule of law is kaput if the other side wins. But more telling is the 20%, a fifth of all Americans who think democracy and the rule of law is dead regardless of who wins.

To run a winning campaign, one needs to understand and know what the entire electorate is thinking and feeling, not just a quarter of it. One needs to adjust and if need be to change tactics, rhetoric in accordance to existing realities among the entire spectrum of all voters out there. Flexibility is an asset, rigidness is not. End of advice.

Its true, the Republicans in the house have not done well. Still, there are, we are told, 5 or 6 Republicans of the old school still there. So, in theory, the Democrats can talk to those 5 and see if they want to vote with them. If so they just might be able to pass some legislation. On the other hand that may not work. I have no idea how many total must ok a bill. 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. Oh, BOTH sides have folks that have gone to the extreme in their zeal. My basic question is whether either side has the capacity to work with anybody in the other side even if they are willing. I have read that there are Dems that will not work with the Republicans no matter what, same as the Republicans.

I have no idea if this would work or not. I know there are several Republicans giving up and leaving the house. Now, if the Dems can get those seats...........

Here’s the list of those in congress not seeking reelection. 42 total house members, 23 democrats, 19 republicans. 8 U.S. senators not seeking reelection, 5 democrats, 2 republicans, 1 independents (Sinema).

https://ballotpedia.org/List_of_U.S._Congress_incumbents_who_are_not_running_for_re-election_in_2024

You typed that as if it each side made a true and valid claim. It's the equivalent to Trump saying there are fine people on both sides.

OMG ... No reasonably objective person would conclude Trump represents Democracy. How do I know? Just read what he has said at any rally of your choice. If you believe any of that represents saving Democracy ... well then ... perhaps you should reacquaint yourself with the Constitution and the Federalist papers. No where does anything Pres Biden has done leads to an end of Democracy ... unless you can point it out, which I would appreciate, as it would alleviate MY ignorance.

I make no case for the MAGA Base as it is more a cult than a political party, and thus they will do and believe whatever Trump says. The key phrase is reasonably objective. Since I already know the vast majority of the American electorate is ignorant and stupid, I am addressing the remaining few reasonably objective persons. Are there enough of these folks left in America to save it from Trump and his brownshirts of retribution, as Democracy swirls down the drain.

I don't know. Weathermen forecast ... bleak.

Do you think that there is a possibility that there are enough members, in the house, from both parties, that could sit down and do the job the entire house is supposed to be doing? One reads that there might be and then we have the members who are quitting because they think there is not.

I also realize that there are members of the house, on both sides, that will not even speak to anybody on the other side. Its a pity if there is not. It would be interesting if there were enough members, if they could work together they could actually do something. How about getting rid of every member that cannot even speak to the other side let alone work with them.

I really think that when a member cannot do anything with the other side they should go home. Both sides working has always been the way they got stuff done. Now, there are so many that are unable to do their jobs that there should be some way to move them away. The reason would be that "they were unable to do their job" and that seems fair to me. If you are working for somebody, and you cannot do your job, you will no longer have a job! This has nothing to do with one side or the other but with those that make up one side or the other.

I continue to wonder, however, if there are any Democrats who, given the above, cannot do their jobs?

Rporter, what these polls and articles are doing is letting us know how all Americans think, feel, want, etc. I used to do election forecasts, it was important in coming up with those forecasts to have all the information that is available whether one agrees with it or not. I’m still the same way. I want to know what all Americans of all stripes are thinking, wanting. The problem is most polls just gives you numbers, not the reasons behind those numbers. Then we get into opinions as to why.

Now you know why all this talk, rhetoric about Trump destroying democracy from the democrats isn’t taking hold, it’s not working, it’s not drawing any voters to Biden or away from Trump or some other candidate or even the undecided which there are but a few. It’s time to change tactics, to throw that destroy democracy rhetoric out the window even if one believes it and fears that it is true. The idea, the goal here is to win an election, to defeat Trump.

If I was advising Biden campaign team, I’d tell them to stop bashing Trump. To begin highlighting Biden accomplishments as president which he has a lot. To go positive for a while. Folks here on this site know what Biden has accomplished, but out there among the masses, most don’t. Remember, most Americans aren’t political junkies. Most aren’t even following the presidential race. Then I’d let Trump be Trump. Let Trump defeat Trump. I think most Americans have tired of all the negative personal attack ads, they’ve come to expect them, to ignore them. What I’m saying is give the people a reason to vote for Biden, not just against Trump. Let Trump provide the reasons for voting against him. Sounds crazy, probably is. But knowledge of what people are thinking, wanting, feeling can be used in a successful positive campaign. That would be something we haven’t seen since Reagan. Reagan used a positive campaign and won two landslide victories. Bush Sr. started with the negative campaign in 1988 which worked, every candidate since has used negative personal attacks against their opponents.

Jgw, my knee jerk reaction is to say no. But then again, there probably are enough. But they’ve been cowed by the extremist on both sides. More so on the GOP side. But also, on the Democratic side. Fear of retribution certainly exists if one works with the other side.

That's what I feared is happening. What this means is that we have a congressional house where EVERYBODY needs to be replaced! Reason is simple, they are stuck and cannot do their jobs. The people on both sides who are actually willing to talk to the other side should probably setup another group. They could call it something like; Politicians Trying to Do Their Jobs I know, its not gonna happen but it would be good if they would. I think the other problem is that each side, in either party, fears the loons and jerks. Its truly a shame. Its a shame for the voters who screwed up, its a shame for the members of the congress who could actually do their jobs if they actually tried and didn't fear the wrath of their crazys, etc.

It would also be nice if our media actually reported who might, or might not, actually work with folks of like mind in the other side. Maybe all they need is a little push?

As an aside the Republicans are going to now try and pass a bill to take care of the southern border even though they have one which was put together by both sides that Trump forbid to get done. One would think that they might take a run at going after their existing loons and crazies. The republicans are so crazy they are going to ignore the bill that would give them both laurels and, instead, prove that they are all jackasses.

It’s a congress that where the more moderates, those willing to work with the other side, compromise and play that old political game of give and take from both parties won’t. Mainly because they don’t want to feel the wrath of the extremist within their parties. This is in my opinion much more prevalent within the GOP than the Democratic Party.

You have Trump who isn’t the speaker or even a member of congress controlling what the Republican House members do. Then there are the Trump surrogates like MTG, Gaetz, Boebert, etc., some 20-25 members running roughshod over all the rest of the Republican House members. You have this from MTG today:Marjorie Taylor Greene delivers fresh threats of ousting Speaker Johnson in scathing letter

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...sting-speaker-johnson-in-scathing-letter



The Democrats have their squad. But they pale in comparison. Still they don’t want to let any other democrat work with republicans. Biden doesn’t interfere with the democrats in the house. I don’t know what to make of Jeffries, he hasn’t been in that job long enough. But being in the minority, squabbles within the Democratic House members rarely get the media attention the republicans in the majority does. Although all that media attention is well deserved.

One last thing, since this is the election thread, here’s the latest generic congressional ballot.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

As of today, going district by district, the democrats have 23 seats at risk vs. 21 republican seats at risk of switching. What this means either via the generic congressional ballot or district by district is either party could gain or lose 5-8 seats. The house like the presidential is a 50-50 shot as to who wins or who gains or loses control.

First it i not just the Democrats who are saying Trump is a danger to Democracy, it is a whole list of former Republican employees of Trump, former high level government officials, both partisan and not, including from the military, Constitutional attorneys, etc. Why is it not taking hold? How about the American electorate is simply ignorant and stupid. If you have seen any interviews of MAGA people, you would know how ignorant, stupid, and bigoted they are. These folks are in a political cult, so they will never change their mind. Only people not in the cult should be addressed. Are these folks too ignorant stupid not to realize what dangerous rhetoric Trump uses, or are they simply MAGA in disguise? What I do know is the Trump propaganda machine has baked in the misinformation and disinformation, so it will not make any difference touting Pres Biden's achievements.

We are on the precipice of the most precipitous election since the 1860 election. Democracy is on the line. Policy issues will not persuade the ignorant and stupid, however the threat of losing their freedom to a dictator may.

Rporter, I don’t know why 62% of all Americans think democrats stating Trump is a threat to democracy is nothing more than scare tactics to stop them from voting for Trump. I can, however, take an educated guess. Over the last 2-3 decades both major parties have basically run nothing but personal political negative attack ads during an election campaign season. Probably most Americans have become numb to them, taking them as nothing more than a vote for my candidate as the opposing candidate is the evilest scumbag on the face of the earth. It’s both parties trying to get the voter to hate their opponent more than they hate yours. Most just shrug at all of this talk, they don’t take it seriously. Just another normal negative personal attack during an election season.

After 20-30 years of this, running all these negative personal political attacks ads, who’s going to believe them? Most are just chalking Trump is a threat to democracy up to a scare tactic to get them to vote for Biden. What’s more interesting is you have roughly the same percentage of all Americans who believe Biden is as much a threat to democracy as Trump is.

To this question - CBS News Poll – February 28 - March 1, 2024 Adults in the U.S. Question 49. U.S. Democracy and Rule of Law Do you think U.S. democracy and rule of law will be safe...Broken down by all adults and via party.
Only if Biden wins All 34%, 70% of democrats, 27% of independents, 3% of Republicans
Only if Trump wins All 33%, 4% of democrats, 31% of independents, 67% of Republicans
It will be safe if either wins All 13%, 12% of democrats, 15% of independents, 13% of republicans
It will not be safe either way or regardless of who wins All 20%, 14% of democrats, 27% of independents, 13% of republicans.

https://www.scribd.com/document/710089283/cbsnews-20240303-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1

First, I know you have a very broad definition of what constitutes a negative ad. Thus, I believe you believe any criticism of an opponent is a negative ad. Based on that definition, I completely understand why the "electorate" views those kinds of adds "negatively". However, I believe if a so-called negative add is substantive, it would not be viewed the same, by reasonable people. Thus if I were to list an opponents voting record, we would know what an opponent believes and would support. Thus if such a candidate voted for bans on abortion, any ad including that would in my view be a legitimate use of information.

Using your broad definition a candidate who was a mass murdering, pedophile, fraudster would be exempt from any "negative" ads mentioning his proclivities. Does that seem like a good use of campaign ads?

The difference between whether Trump is a danger to Democracy and Pres Biden is a danger, is one of substance. I can list many substantive true and valid things which would make Trump a danger to Democracy, while I can not thing a substantive, true or valid thing which would make Pres Biden a threat to Democracy. Now, I can think of a number of policy issues for which people object and would hyperbolically believe would be a threat, but in each case Democracy is not in the balance.

MAGA would believe God is a threat to Democracy if God was Trump's opponent. So any polling which includes MAGA is skewed and clearly leads to inappropriate and inaccurate conclusions. While there is certainly a core group of Democrats who would view Trump as a threat, they would not view Liz Cheney as a threat. That is the difference. What explains the independents? Ignorance!

Let me explain. If you lay out a table and compare what Trump has said and done (as a threat to Democracy) and what Pres Biden has done and said (which someone could view as a threat), there would be no equivalency. It would be clear one list has policy issues, while the other has actual threats.

In the movie "An American President" there is a line which goes, the presidency is all about character. If that is true, and I believe it should be, then everything a candidate does and says should be considered. Thus, we have one candidate, who has been convicted of fraud, has led several fraudulent enterprises, sexually assaults women, defames people, and has been indicted on a number of charges for crimes against the country. All of this should be considered for the question, is this person fit to occupy the WH? The other candidate has none of those "problems". What he does have is some questionable decisions in the public arena, after which he has evolved and changed his positions, but he is not a fraud, he has not been indicted for criminal activities, and he doesn't assault women. He is old, but so is the other candidate. Fitness? How can there be any question, who is fit?

I believe current polling has been so skewed by the polarization of politics, it has become useless to understand and explain anything politically. See my arguments above. How could any reasonable person in normal times select a criminal as a viable candidate for the presidency? This can only happen today, and that is precisely why Trump is a threat to Democracy. He has an actual chance of winning outright (and certainly may invoke his sycophants in state governments and in the House to subvert the elections results and anoint trump as president). The courts don't have any power to set the ship aright. The military may intervene on behalf of the Constitution, but I am not holding my breathe. I watched an interview of John Bolton, who believes Trump is not a threat to Democracy but is unfit. All I can say is Bolton is delusional. Anyone who believes Trump will not do whatever it takes to become president has been drinking kooky juice.

I am the mad man from the mountains shouting for anyone to hear ... for I know I will become an enemy of the state should Trump win

I think that the polls are not always correct. After each election we get told that was the case, every time! So, basically, we will simply have to vote and see what happens. I get a lot of stuff from Trump (never figured out why). They are, basically, lying about just about everything I can see. All that being said they are doing a good job of doing it nice and easey as if its all the truth. I don't get anything from the Dems except asks for more money and little else. The TV tells me that Biden is going to have wonders to behold as the Dems are very rich. I can't say anything about their ads because I have never seen even one.

I do believe that the Democratic party, as far as I am concerned, is not doing a whole lot about ANYTHING! The people that are actually working to win is the Republicans! Then, we have a president, who doesn't seem to understand that to win he has to make certain groups happy. One of those are the Muslim Dems who remain upset and unwilling to vote for him and there are others as well. If he explained he is trying, real hard, to set them up with their own country things might change. The Dems have got to start an education effort to point out where the Republicans are lying big time but I have no faith any of that is going to happen, at least in the State of Washington. I have actually emailed the Democrat party and asked them question as to what they are doing. Their reply was pretty simple; "Give us money!"

I am going to vote for Biden as I don't have a choice. If Trump wins its gonna be another disaster and I don't think we have enough money to make him happy. I often wonder, if he gets elected how long it will take him to collapse our economy big time.

Should mention that the medium is doing a fair job noting that the Republicans are working, really hard, to promote Russian lies. They are giving names, etc. So, at least, somebody is fighting back.

All that being said I REALLY want Biden to win. Trump scares the hell out of me.

I think where people get the polls wrong is they don’t take the MOE into consideration. Some examples: The polls had the republicans winning the midterm congressional vote by 2.5 points. They won it by 2.8 points. Well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The polls had Biden winning by 7.2 points in 2020. He won by 4.5 points. Barely within the MOE, but within it. Sure, the polls missed it by 2.7 points, but one needs to factor in the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. Same for the 2018 midterms which had the democrats winning the national congressional vote by 7.3 points, they won it by 8.4 points. Still within the MOE. The polls had Clinton winning in 2016 by 3.2 points, she won the popular vote by 2.1 points. That pretty darn close and once again within the MOE. And so on, on back. I don’t think most folks who say the polls were wrong understand the MOE each poll has.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

The latest polling average has Trump ahead by 0.2 points in a two-candidate race. That is basically a tie. I would consider it a tie because of the MOE of plus or minus 3 points even if Trump was ahead by 3 points or behind Biden by 3 points. Mainly because that is the margin of error most polls have.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

I believe trends are far more important than the horserace numbers. Trump took the lead in September of last year averaging around a 2.5-point lead until the end of March this year. Since then Biden has narrowed that to 0.2 points. That’s a trend worth watching. Leaving the polls behind, I think Biden will win. Today, Biden trails Trump among independents, the election deciders. Which is why we have a basic tie instead of Biden being 5 or 6 points ahead. But the general election campaign hasn’t started yet, at least officially. I think once it begins, once independents who really disliked Trump back in 2020, but liked Biden enough to vote for him by a 54-41 vote margin will begin to return. Today most independents dislike both and don’t want neither one as their next president. But once the general election campaign begins, Trump will be Trump, his old obnoxious, uncouth, rude self. His name calling, throwing of temper tantrums along with his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics. He will remind independents why they disliked him so much back in 2020. They may still dislike Biden. Worry about Biden’s age and his mental fitness for another term. They still won’t like Biden’s job performances or his handling of most issues. But they’ll dislike Biden less than they do Trump and end up supporting Biden. I’d worry about turnout though and those independents voting third party against both.

You don’t have to convince me. It’s all of America that needs convincing. But most aren’t buying it. The reason why is 62% just look at all this talk about Trump being a threat to democracy as nothing more than Democratic scare tactics, a vote for my guy scare tactic. I was just letting you know that it isn’t working, letting you know what all of America is thinking, seeing, feeling, etc. I also don’t think the democrats realize how poor a choice Biden was, is to ensure Trump’s defeat. I personal believe almost any other Democratic candidate would be 10 points ahead of Trump instead of being in a basic tie. But that is just my opinion, everyone has them. In plain English, Biden went from a huge asset in 2020 to a liability in 2024.

Biden beating Trump in the majority of polls

"What a huge liability"

Not a problem Jeffrey, Rick. Here you go as of 2100 hrs 12 Apr 2024.

Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Trump 45.5, Biden 45.3.

Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
Trump 41.9, Biden 40.0, Kennedy 10.0, West 1.7, Stein 1.5.

It’s still a basic tie since both of rcp averages of the most recent polls are within the MOE. But on this day 12 April 2020 Biden 48.1, Trump 42.1. Biden had a 6-point lead instead of trailing by 0.2. I think anyone taking on Trump should be ahead by quite a lot. Not falling within the MOE.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden

In fact, in 2020 Biden never trailed Trump in every poll taken. At least those listed on RCP. This year, Trump has lead Biden since September of last year according to RCP averages. But am I wrong in thinking whoever is the democratic nominee should be leading Trump by a lot, perhaps 10 points? Not being in a basic tie. That the nominee shouldn’t be giving Trump a 50-50 shot at regaining the white house?

It’s only April, and Trump's first criminal trial starts in less than 72 hours. Next week, Trump is in another court answering questions about the the fake $175m bond he posted.

Trump may be the GOP frontrunner, but his outreach to voters is coming up short with a substantial number of Nimrata Haley voters professing they won't vote for him in November. Across the board in the primaries, 30 percent of Republican voters say they are never going to vote for Donald Trump and will sit-out the November ’24 election.

Convicted felon Donald Trump has a nice ring to it.

Rick, I hear that all the time. But if one looks at the party breakdown as to who those republicans and democrats plan on voting for. It’s equal. 87% of democrats plan on voting for Biden, 2% for Trump. 87% Republicans say they’ll vote for Trump, 3% for Biden. The rest are stating they’ll vote third party, undecided or will not vote. That is below the historical average of both major parties faithful voting for their party’s candidate 94% of the time.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_lMxEeEw.pdf

The last time the party faithful voted below the historical average for their candidate was in 2016 when 89% of democrats voted for Clinton, 8% for Trump, 88% of republicans voted for Trump, 8% for Clinton.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

Like you, I always thought once the trials start that will hurt Trump. But will it? The 91 federal indictments had no effect. The New York civil fraud trial and the E.J. Carrol trial, verdicts have had no effect. Trump maintain his average lead of 1 to 2 points over Biden in the polls all through those. We’ll just have to wait and see.

The bottom line so far is Biden has his poor job performance in the eyes of most Americans, he has the age and mental acuity issues with most Americans. Trump has his legal problems which most Americans find offensive, his obnoxious, rude, uncouth personality makes him easy to dislike. Both have a lot of liabilities this time around when in 2020 it was only Trump with the liabilities. I can’t understand or see why democrats can’t see or acknowledge this. But it is what it is.

I firmly believe a fresh, younger candidate, a candidate without Biden’s liabilities would be trouncing Trump by 10 or more points than being in a basic tie. But that is my belief. Apparently, it isn’t anyone else’s. One last thing, looking at how the people feel about the candidates running. All Americans, 13% enthusiastic about Biden, 42% upset that he’s the democratic nominee. Democrats only, 33% enthusiastic, 8% upset. Trump being the GOP nominee, 26% of all Americans are enthusiastic, 43% upset. Republicans only, 59% enthusiastic, 8% upset. That’s a lot of Americans upset that both Trump and Biden are the major party nominees. Questions 25A and 25B for the full breakdown.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_lMxEeEw.pdf

How are polls conducting phone surveys when most people don't have landlines?

Rick, Landlines, cell phones, internet and more. Here’s how Pew Research select those who they poll - How are people selected for your polls?
Most of our U.S. surveys are conducted on the American Trends Panel (ATP), the Center’s national survey panel of over 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults. ATP participants are recruited offline using random sampling from the U.S. Postal Service’s residential address file. Respondents complete the surveys online using smartphones, tablets or desktop devices. We provide tablets and data plans to adults without home internet.

And - The Quinnipiac University Poll uses what has long been considered the gold standard methodology in polling: random digit dialing using live interviewers, calling both landlines and cell phones. This methodology has been the key to our accuracy over our many years of polling.

That’s but two examples, if your interested in the changes made - How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/

What I like to use is RCP and their polling average of all the recent polls when possible. Averaging eliminates the strength of an outlier poll. RCP averages has been accurate within the MOE of the polls for about every election. Pundits and opinion pieces tend to pick and choose the polls that backs up whatever they’re trying to say. RCP by averaging also eliminates the pick and choose pundits and opinion pieces. Although at times there isn’t any choice but to rely on a single poll depending on what one is looking for. RCP doesn’t cover voter enthusiasm, but YouGov does. So, I have no choice but to rely on YouGov. As for polling firm’s accuracy and reputation. You have this from 538.

538’s Pollster Ratings - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

And this from RCP - RCP Pollster Scorecard

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

As I have stated before, cash flow to the candidates is a much better barometer indicator than any poll.

According to Open Secrets, Biden has raised 188.7 million so far, Trump 179.1 million. RFK Jr. is lagging behind having raised 71.6 million. That’s pretty good for an independent candidate.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race

The money race is probably a lot closer than you thought. That however doesn’t take anything away that from 1960 through 2020, the candidate who had raised the most money always won with one lone exception. 2016 when Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

The cash and the polls both reflect a basic tie.

Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Five way race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Along with a basic tie in the electoral college.

https://www.270towin.com/

Contrary to the assertion otherwise, If you use a cell phone only, you have never been polled and never will. One of the problems with cell phones is they are not tied to an actual location. The other is that cell phone only use is demographically skewed to younger voters.

Why do polls keep showing that Trump is ahead of Biden with youth voters for 2024? In short, they’re wrong. They’re wildly, laughably wrong. Worse, these pollsters intuitively know that their results are wrong, yet they’ve been refusing to fix their flawed sampling method.

Any given poll gets more media coverage and credibility if it’s laughably wrong, than if it’s reasonably correct. The media loves nothing more than to take a shocking poll that can’t possibly be accurate, and hype it as if it were 100% correct – even while ignoring all the polls that say the opposite.

It's important for media to promote a "tight race," because doing so promotes more page clicks resulting in more ad revenue.

Also contrary to other assertions, since Roe V Wade was overturned, Dems running on abortion have won EVERY special election. Contrary to other assertions, abortion IS the number one issue for women voters, the polling sampling is wrong. The special election results validate this.

Rick, what the polls are showing with the youth vote is 55-34 Biden over Trump with the rest undecided. In 2020 Biden won the youth vote 60-36 over Trump. The numbers are almost identical for this year vs. 2020. I haven’t seen any polls showing Trump ahead with the youth vote. That is BS propaganda.

Special elections especially for the House of Representatives all have their unique circumstances. Mostly local issues. I don’t follow special elections as they’re in my opinion due to the situation in each district which differs from district to district which are the important issues. Perhaps abortion was the most important issue among women in those special elections. I don’t know. Maybe not. Maybe there were solid blue districts and maybe not. But you got me curious, so I looked up the House special elections. So far there’ve been 4.

New York's 3rd Congressional District on February 13, 2024. Republican Santos district which went to the democrat Tom Suozzi. Biden won this district by 8.2 points in 2020. Likely Democratic District.
Utah’s 2nd Congressional District on November 21, 2023. Republican Stewart district won by republican Celeste Maloy, Trump won this district by 17.1 points in 2020, Solid Red District
Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District on November 7, 2023. Democrat David Cicilline District won by Democrat Gabe Amo. Biden won this district by 29.1 points in 2020, Solid Blue District
Virginia's 4th Congressional District on February 21, 2023. Democrat Donald McEachin District won by Democrat Jennifer McClellan. Biden won this district by 36.0 points in 2020. Solid Blue District

I’d say no surprises. One solid red district, Utah, one likely democratic district, New York, two solid Blue districts Rhode Island and Virginia. Special elections pending with dates:

New York's 26th Congressional District on April 30, 2024. Solid Blue
California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. Solid Red
Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. Solid Red
Colorado's 4th Congressional District on June 25, 2024. Solid Red
California Senate on November 5, 2024. Solid Blue
Nebraska Senate on November 5, 2024. Solid Red

https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_118th_United_States_Congress_(2023-2024)

This is interesting - New poll shows RFK Jr.'s campaign could sink Trump

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...ump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

This goes against conventual wisdom as the pundits have been saying RFK Jr. would hurt Biden more than Trump. I’m prone to think way too much attention is made of RFK Jr. Mainly to the fact he’s has succeeded to gain ballot access in only 3 states so far. Hawaii, Michigan and Utah. Cornell West has tied RFK Jr. in gaining ballot access in 3 states, South Carolina, Alaska and Oregon. The following third parties are ballot-qualified in at least five states:

Libertarian Party: 37 states
Green Party: 20 states
Constitution Party: 12 states
Independent Party: 5 states

It’s been 2 weeks since the hush money trial began. One week of jury selection, one week of the actual trial. In the two-candidate race on 15 Apr the polls showed Trump 45.2% Biden 44.9%, Trump by 0.3 points. Today, Trump 44.8%, Biden 44.5%, Trump up by the same 0.3 points he was 2 weeks ago.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

In the five-way race on 15 Apr, it was Trump 41.9%, Biden 40.0% Kennedy 10.0%, West 1.7%, Stein 1.5%, Trump up by 1.9 points. Today it’s Trump 41.0%, Biden 40.1%, Kennedy 9.5%, West 1.7%, Stein 1.2%. Trump up by 0.9 points. A drop of a full point.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

2 observations. Why did, do, we expect the hush money trial in progress would affect Trump’s standing in the polls against Biden if the 91 federal indictments, the 2 previous civil trials, the E.J. Carroll and the New York Fraud trials, the Georgia case, all of Trump’s legal problems to date hasn’t had any effect. 2. But then again, perhaps we or I should say I, haven’t given the polls enough time to fully adjust to the on goings, the happenings of the hush money trial. Most polls on the trial are what If polls, what if Trump is found guilty would you still vote for him. Which make it hard to impossible to ascertain exactly what effect the trial is having on the average American and the rematch between Biden and Trump with the exception of the horserace polls.

First, the start of jury selection 15 Apr, Trump 45.2, Biden 44.9, Trump by 0.3. Three weeks later or into the hush money trial -Trump 46.6, Biden 45.1, Trump by 1.5 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

The five-way race, 15 Apr, Trump 41.9, Biden 40.0, Kennedy 10.0, West 1.7, Stein 1.5. Trump up by 1.9 points. Today, Trump 42.1, Biden 38.9, Kennedy 10.0, West 2.0, Stein 1.5. Trump by 3.2 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

I had firmly believed once folks saw Trump sitting at the defendants table during a criminal trial his number would go down. Apparently, that hasn’t been the case. Maybe I should have known better. If being found guilty in the two civil New York trials, the 91 federal indictments, the Georgia case haven’t affected the dynamics of this rematch, why did I believe this hush money trial would? It’s seems nothing short of a guilty verdict is going to have an effect. Now, today, I’m not too sure about that. I went searching. To this question - Do you think the legal prosecutions of Donald Trump are fair and unrelated to politics or do you think the Democrats today are engaged in lawfare - a campaign using the government and the legal system in biased ways to take out a political opponents? 43% answered fair and legal, 57% answered using the legal system to take out a political opponent.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/HHP_Apr2024_KeyResults.pdf

Is that the answer? But wait, in the same poll, 55% of all Americans think Trump committed crimes, 45% don’t. 52% think Trump is a threat to democracy, 48% don’t. Definitely contradictorily numbers. Perhaps there is no sane answer. Maybe no reason to be found in the numbers either. The only thing the polls have been constant in and has been for months is that around 60% of all Americans don’t want Biden reelected, 60% don’t want Trump to regain the white house. With that, therein may lie the answer why none of these trials has affected Trump one bit. Only 38% of all Americans have been paying attention to this upcoming presidential election, 42% are enthusiastic about voting for the president, but 41% have no enthusiasm at all about voting for president. They don’t care about the rematch. Trying to make sense out of something that makes no sense seems to be an impossibility.

Here’s a good research paper, polling results from Pew Research which may give an answer to what were seeing so far in this rematch election year. 49% of all Americans say that, if they had the ability to decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot. This from Pew Research which includes a lot more information than just this fact showing the dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Biden to become the next president. It touches on ethics, physical fitness to do the job, breaks down the voter groups, evaluations of the presidencies, the criminal charges on Trump on page 1, page 2 which you can go to at the bottom is about the rematch, page 3 voters view of Trump and Biden, page 4 feelings about this rematch, page 5 Biden’s approval ratings.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...roadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/

Very insightful if one wants to get into the nitty gritty details that most just ignore concentrating only on the horserace numbers. The reasons why Trump and Biden are in a basic tie are in there if one is interested in why.

Trump wins and why polling doesn't matter.

Implicit in a polling regime to comprehend voter opinions, is all voting sites are equally fair and free from obvious voter impersonation fraud. But that is not the case. So let's examine my argument.

This election much as the previous general election will be putatively determined by just a few votes in a few so-called battleground states. One of the seminal Republican stratagems has been to disenfranchise predominantly Democrat voter blocks. This corrupt practice has become forefront in this stratagem by Red State laws which, with laser focus, single out Democrat blocks for "legal" disenfranchisement, under the guise of making the voting process more secure. Since the result of the election will be determined by just a few votes, it doesn't take many "legal" impediments to keep a sufficient umber of Democrats from voting to swing an election.

Further, Republicans have adopted one of the most repugnant plans, reminiscent of KKK tactics to not just disenfranchise voters but to intimidate them while trying to vote. Their plan is to target people of color. This is the same plan True the Vote uses to intimidate black people in Texas not to vote. True the Vote is also the racist organization which provided Dinesh with non existent evidence of fraud, which formed the basis of his movie, 2000 Mules. Republicans are willing to plumb the depths of depravity to win an election.

If that were not enough, Republicans have in place the infrastructure which can guarantee a Trump win regardless if he actually wins. At local and state levels they have election boards and partisan overseers to ensure they win by throwing out votes. One of the more egregious methods is to throw out mail-in ballots which do not have an exact signature match to voter registration card. The assumption is this will throw out Democrat votes (and Republican votes) but same day turn out by Republicans would make up the difference. Every loss of Democrat votes help ensure a Republican win, when the voting is close.

And finally we have an ultra- conservative Speaker of the House who has already been complicit in attempting to overthrow one election. Should certification come down to procedural issues of MAGA representatives objecting to certification, Rep Mike Johnson would simply intervene and guide the process into the House, where Republicans would anoint Trump the winner.

People say it can't happen in America, but we have already seen what Trump has done and he has already indicated he will not concede this election, especially now that he has his loyal soldiers in place.

Polls!!! .... who needs polls when you rig an election.

What polls do is to give you the mood of the country on whatever topic, issue, election, etc. they’re polling. As to the accuracy of the polls, most are fairly accurate as in the sense the final results falls within the MOE (Margin of Error) of the polls usually determined by the amount of people polled.

Forget the horserace numbers, they’ve been within the MOE since this rematch of an election began. A basic tie as I call it. But what the number show by delving deep within the polls, research papers, not just looking at the horserace number is this rematch is the last thing most Americans want. The numbers show very little enthusiasm for voting for the presidency. Around 55% with very little or no enthusiasm at all. That both major party candidates are disliked and unwanted to become the next president. For different reasons for sure. The disgust, disgust is probably the proper word to use for this rematch is evident all around for everyone to see. If they’d open their eyes.

Something is very wrong with the choices offered by both major parties, at least for most or a majority of Americans. What does 49% of all Americans who would replace both Trump and Biden with someone else as both major parties’ nominees if given a chance to do that. Not just one, both. What does 62% of all Americans saying this country needs another choice other than Trump and Biden?

What the research papers, delving deep within the polls show is around 35% of all Americans really want Trump to regain the white house. That around that same percentage, 35% want Biden reelected. That 30% don’t want neither one. This 30% think both Trump and Biden would not make a good president and be bad for the country if either one is elected. They’re mood today which is in my opinion much more important than the horserace numbers is one of who cares who wins or loses. For this 30% of all Americans, this rematch is a lose, lose rematch. Yet, this 30% are the election deciders, that is if they vote. If those who do vote, how many will choose between the two major party candidates, how many will vote against both by voting third party as 6% did in 2016? Which candidate will this 30% deem the lesser of two evils, the least worse candidate, the major party candidate they want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least?

All I can say is both major parties are totally blind to the mood of the entire electorate, most Americans about this rematch. The big question, what can be done to change this mood? I’d say nothing, it’s way past time for any possibility of changing. The rematch is set in stone.

P ... I am not arguing the accuracy nor the efficacy of polls. My argument is it doesn't matter a mote what the polls are saying. I am arguing the fix is in and Trump will be the future occupant of the WH, regardless of what the future vote totals say.

Yep you read it here .... yes I am that mad voice alerting the populace of the Death of Democracy. Get ready to take the loyalty oath.

Rapace

Have you or any democrat for that matter, anti-Trumper ever asked themselves why Trump at this point in time stands a 50-50 chance of regaining the white house? The answer is simple and so obvious that it gets totally overlooked.

"The answer is simple and so obvious that it gets totally overlooked" So I am a clueless rube. Let me explain.

I am not a bigot, but I understand how bigotry can drive a person;s political beliefs. So I completely understand why the Republican Base (for most of them) are attracted to Trump. He figured out what the driving force was of the Base and tapped into it. The result of their bigotry is now called White Rural Rage. Everything these folks hate about the federal government can be distilled to bigotry. So I get the 35%-40% who continue will will never stop supporting Trump. Did you see the video from one Miss university???

So the question becomes what motivates the 10-15% who support Trump, to make up the 50% support he gets in polling. Presumably these are independents. If they are irrational thinkers and it simply a beauty contest, I get it. They are my stupid electorate. I suppose some like the authoritarian nature of Trump i.e. he should be king. Again, my stupid electorate. Etc. No objectively rational person would consider Trump a good candidate, even if he were running against a dead ham sandwich. Trump is a narcissist whose only concern is garnering popular adulation at whatever expense it costs the country. Trump is incompetent. This is proven in his business dealings. Trump as a self promoting narcissist uses grifts as a means to elevate his ego at the expense of other people. Trump has an authoritarian streak in him (based on his narcissism)for which he will destroy Democratic institutions in order to idolize himself. etc.

Since I am clearly not very smart, the answer is no, I do not have a clue what is so obvious.

For the last two years, this is from a numbers guy, an avid polls watcher and research paper reader, Biden has had somewhere between 55-60% of all Americans who don’t want him reelected. The Pew Research paper delves into this along with job approval numbers, the age and mental fitness worries all play into where we’re at today with this rematch. I give the Trumpers a higher percentage of all Americans than you. Around 30%. No where near enough to win an election. What we also have is around the same percentage of Americans who don’t want Trump to regain the white house. Thus, the basic tied between Biden and Trump.

Even in 2020, people weren’t in love with Biden. He was that year, an acceptable alternative to Trump. People were anti-Trump, but not pro-Biden which translated into Biden’s 7 plus million vote victory. But at the same time, a lot of people who voted for Biden, against Trump, turned around and voted republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats. 2020 was only the second time in our history where a candidate won the popular vote on his way to the presidency and lost house seats. 1884, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote and the presidency by 50,000 votes, yet the democrats lost 8 house seats. 50,000 is a huge difference than winning by 7 plus million.

We had a sitting president in 2020 that the people didn’t want reelected, but an acceptable alternative to that sitting president in Biden. Today, we’re back to having a sitting president that isn’t wanted, ALA 2020, but the alternative isn’t wanted either. Hence the basic tie. And yes, it’s independents that has switched from going to Biden in 2020 54-41 to going to Trump so far this year, 37% Trump, 35% Biden, with the rest in the vote third party, will not vote or undecided columns. Which wipes away the 7 million vote margin Biden won the 2020 election by. You have 28% of independents still looking for an alternative to both Biden and Trump. They don’t want neither one. They’re falling into the vote third party, will not vote or still undecided columns.

People are just as much anti-Trump today as they were in 2020. The big difference is today they’re also anti-Biden whereas in 2020 they weren’t. Biden is president today, not Trump which is another huge difference.

The obvious part was Biden wasn’t going to win reelection. That is until Trump became the GOP nominee. Which turned an obvious landslide defeat into a 50-50 shot for both. Biden’s numbers are worse than Jimmy Carter’s in 1980, worse than G.H.W. Bush in 1992, worse than Trump’s in 2020. With the dislike and unwantedness of Trump still present, I firmly believe that almost any other democratic candidate than Biden would be trouncing Trump. Most people wanted someone other than Biden and Trump this year. Most wanted a fresh, younger face, not two old foggies which one belongs in a nursing home and the other in jail.

But unlike you, I believe Biden will pull this out. Never underestimate the power of incumbency. Then too, way too many people out there among the masses still can’t believe this election will be between Biden and Trump. That reality hasn’t sunk in yet.

Yes I understand your argument and the statistics. none of which entered into my argument for all the reasons you believe it should. My argument is based solely on objective rational thought. I don't care if the race was between Trump and a "dead ham sandwich", voters should recognize all the dangers of incompetency, corruption, and authoritarianism. It should not be framed as a race between one old guy ... o and another old guy, but as one person who supports Democracy and one who abhors it.

Just because we are forced into choices which are unpalatable, does not mean we should ignore the qualities essential for "good" governance. I made the same argument in 2016. Clinton was the competent journeyman, even though flawed, candidate, she was still by far the better choice.

I can't imagine how Democracy will be decided on by less than 100,000 voters. I guess in a modern world we deserve to be enslaved by a currently indicted person apparently willing to sell out his country for few bucks. What I know is there are not enough attorneys in America to keep Trump from weaponizing government. He has a whole cadre of loyalists willing to lie cheat steal and probably kill for him in order to be the once and future king of America, Savoir, anointed by God, and crowned by his own hand, despite what Bill Barr thinks. For me ... well, I will be known as rapace for as long as I should remain free from his jack booted thugs.

Prepare to join the resistance and save America.

But I recall what you typed .... it could never happen in America.

Just because Trump was unsuccessful the last time does not mean he will be unsuccessful this time. All the pieces are in place .... Republicans are actively as I type attempting to throw out votes, and that is just the obvious "legal" stuff.

Can't happen in America .... its already happening

I don’t remember ever typing that. I know I’ve said that Biden was the wrong candidate to ensure Trump’s defeat. That still holds true today. If the election were held today, Trump would probably win. Here’s the electoral college with the candidate which have a 5 or more-point lead assigned to the candidate with the lead. States with less than a 5-point lead are tossups. Trump with a 246-216 electoral college vote lead.

https://www.270towin.com/

The election isn’t today. Why my thinking on Biden finally pulling this out? You still have a quarter of the voters out there that still believe Trump and Biden won’t be their party’s nominees. That somehow, someway, both will be changed, be swapped out for someone else. The reality that this rematch happening is still lost on them. Once this sinks in, Trump vs. Biden, they’ll make a choice between them. They won’t be happy; they’ll probably be angry as all get out at being forced to choose between Trump and Biden. By not having someone else to vote for. But I think their memories will be jogged, even though they don’t want Biden, that they’ll begin to remember why they disliked Trump so much in 2020. That Biden will become the lesser of two evils to them, the candidate they least want to lose. That Trump’s childish, 4-year-old spoiled brat antics, his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics, his lies, his legal problems which I hope one of his legal problems results in a guilty verdict. That Biden is still the only adult in the room. A great grandfather type of an adult to them. Perhaps an adult who has done a very poor job in their eyes as president, an old man they worry about him being able to survive another term in office along with his mental fitness, but an adult, nonetheless.

In plain English, I’m counting on Trump defeating Trump, not Biden defeating Trump. With Biden’s numbers and all the fears and liabilities associated with him, Biden can’t defeat Trump. But Trump can defeat himself which in the end, I confident will happen. That Biden will become the fist sitting president with an overall job approval of well below 50%, currently at 40%, of being viewed unfavorably by 58% of all Americans to win reelection since Gallup and Pew Research started keeping track of these things back in 1948. All thanks to the Republicans nominating Trump.

It was a reference to what Trump would do if he lost the 2020. He led an insurrection, so yes, it can happen in America, and not only that but he is poised to repeat in 2024. You still seem to believe he is a normal candidate ... I don't know why ... all I can type is .... yes it CAN happen in America and it is happening as I type.

Trump is not the old time normal candidate of America's past. He represents the worst in American political thought, having it's seeds sown some 30 years ago by conservative Republican anarchists. Should Trump lose the vote, expect the most insidiously egregious attack on Democracy from Trump and his loyalists, at the local, state, and federal levels. And if you don't think it can happen in America ... well ...

Instead of just looking at this upcoming rematch from inside the anti-Trump cocoon, I step outside and take a good view of the entire electorate trying to figure out where things stand today and if possible, why. I’m as much anti-Trump as anyone else, but being anti-Trump isn’t going to change the reasons why we have an election coming which gives him a 50-50 shot at regaining the white house. That shouldn’t be but is. It’s reality. Why is this so? I get the feeling that few care. Perhaps they’re right, it seems there’s nothing at this point that could change the dynamics of this rematch or who the candidates are.

A lot has changed since 2020. Trump hasn’t become more popular; he’s still disliked and unwanted by around 55% of all Americans. But Biden has dropped to the level of Trump in the dislike and unwanted column. According to Gallup, independents, the non-affiliated, the less to non-partisan group of voters make up 41% of the electorate today. They’ve went from viewing Biden positively, viewing Trump negatively as their vote for Biden in 2020 proves 54-41. To viewing both Biden and Trump negatively today. Hence you have the basic tie between Biden and Trump. You have a third of independents refusing to choose between Biden and Trump, they dislike both, they don’t want neither one. They’re falling into the vote third party, will not vote, undecided columns. They made their choice in 2020 for Biden, this year they’re not making any choice.

It's not that I disagree with you. I don’t. It’s the study of these swing voters, the non-affiliates, the less to non-partisans that has always grabbed my interest. For these voters, Trump was alone in the doghouse in 2020, 2024, Biden has joined Trump in the doghouse. Which is impossible for most anti-Trumpers and democrats to understand or even acknowledge. Trump hasn’t gained any support from swing voters, he’s lost some, down from 41% to 37% today. But Biden has lost the support of almost 20 points worth, down from 54% to 35%. Which really put the emphasis on the dislike and unwantedness these swing voters have, feel for both major party candidates. I repeat, the democrats have chosen the wrong candidate to ensure Trump’s defeat. That almost any other democratic candidate than Biden in my opinion would be wiping the floor with Trump. But the DNC and Democratic Party leadership made sure, used all their powers to ensure Biden wouldn’t be challenged in the Democratic Primaries. You have this prior to the primaries - Poll: Two-thirds of Democrat-leaning voters don't want Biden as 2024 nominee

https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/poll-biden-2024-second-term-democrat-voters-cnn

I agree with you, but this won’t stop me studying swing voters. They’re the election deciders. Not neither major party’s base. Not the pro or anti-Trumpers either, but those who dislike and don’t want neither Biden nor Trump to become the next president, how they vote, if they do vote will decide this election.