Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Winning

You wrote, not too long ago:


So how is it that by passing infrastructure for a win and build on that legislative success but when it comes to the build better livestock bill having legislation lowering prescription drug prices or paid family leave its:

"
I think too many times a party tries to rely on legislation to win elections which rarely works. At least not in the next election or even the next few. A lot of people want instant gratification. The BBB doesn’t do that, the BBB doesn’t lower gas, fuel or natural, food prices or put stuff back on the shelves"

?!!

I would put the ability to afford medicine up with the ability to buy groceries. Wouldn't argue that one. The pork plan that passed will do neither of these things.

When did the average American want to see taxes lowered for the wealthiest? Trump always followed the money and simply stole Obama's game. Talk like a populist to get elected, govern like a right winger to get rich.

Numbers change and new numbers have come in. My forecast or deductions are based on numbers. Here's how Biden is viewed on the economy.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_biden_job_approval_economy-7321.html

and Biden's overall job performance.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

I noticed the passage of the infrastructure bill didn't move the needle upwards. The downward trend continues. So two plus two means legislation won't help until inflation gets under control. New numbers, new ideas, new reasons so to speak.

The direction of the country continues to be on the wrong track, 62% say this and that also continues to rise.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/direction_of_country-902.html

Bottom line, is the passage of the infrastructure bill didn't reverse the downward trend. It continues. Conclusion based on the numbers today and not from two weeks ago leads me to believe no legislation will help Biden and company.

Not until inflation is brought under control. Not until prices start to fall. A simple barometer would be to look at the price of a gallon of gas. That will probably tell you how many seats the Democrats will lose next year or if the price of gas is falling, perhaps they have a chance of retaining control. That's keeping things simple. The KISS principle. Inflation is the top, number one, the most important issue among independents. As long as rising prices and empty shelves remain their most important issue, nothing else matters election wise.

Well, to look at it honestly, we all know how accurate polls can be. Polls were saying Hilary Clinton was going to win, and look what we got.

Polls are just the beginning stages of HS

Another simple barometer would've been to read my posts for the last few weeks.

"You don't need a weather man to know which way the wind blows..." Bob Dylan said that.

"The economy, stupid..." James Carville said that.

The Federal Government just announced that the cost of Medicare Part B is about to go up dramatically

A huge tax increase on the poorest Americans. Can you see the Red Wave beginning to form up yet? A day may come when some of the "safest" seats become competitive.

Yeah but whose economy was Carville talking about? Whose interest was he and NAFTA Billy serving?

Whose interest is getting served with infrastructure?

I guess it’s weather you believe material conditions are a basis for politics and economics or culture and polls?

History tells me it’s the former.

Material conditions...yeah, "the economy, stupid." And you can clearly see which way the wind is blowing

After all the fighting over it, the infrastructure bill does exactly nothing in the near term. Is it a big job creator in a time when no one can find enough help? Will it just be more of a burden on an already overloaded logistics industry? But then...I have no idea what's in that bill.

Roads and bridges? Surely there are roads and bridges. Because they booted all the good sh*t out.

Anything that would take an ounce of pressure off the average American was nixed. Because it could cost the wealthy a few pennies. The sad part about this is that the average American is entirely okay with it.

I'm no economist, but I suspect that a lot of this inflation was caused by Trump's earlier overheating of the economy to keep his numbers good. The pandemic derailed Trump. Trump's economic blowback is gonna derail Biden(and the Democrats). It's kind of a rinse and repeat situation.

Yes, but again, whose economy? Member all that boat lifting jumbo jumbo back in the 90’s and early oughts? How’s that blue wall in the rust belt holding up…
Member all that pain trade off in the near term but all that long term optimism? A PR campaign of crushing labor, deskilling the workforce and financializing the economy. That’s still a burning memory around here.

Lots of failure points happening with the economy. Decades long commodification of life’s necessities, housing, medicine, education, etc.. Copper stripping public goods to Wall Street. Deregulation of the economy. Mass consolidation of ports and shipping lines following that activity that we see getting worse.

But my all time favorite is the Greenspan put that we just watched happen. Oddly enough, every time the economy goes in the toilet the guvmint bails out the portfolios of the ruling classes while the working class takes it in the short. Lots of money sloshing around up their looking for bargain prices on homes and businesses, Wash, rinse repeat. Good time to be in high clover. Fat city for investments while the real economy shrinks. No debate on that activity. That whistles thru like sh!t thru the proverbial goose.

S’funny how high public approval of legislative ideas never gets passed.

Whose economy? THE Economy. It serves the top 10%.

The rest of us serve them.

Here’s what the polls showed in 2016, Hillary winning the popular vote by 3.2 points, she won the popular vote by 2.1 points. Well with the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The polls weren’t wrong, the pundits were.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...eral_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

With 107 of the 435 new districts drawn, we have 5 currently held democratic seats and 1 republican seat in the competitive category. The rest look safe for the party that now holds them. All this means is that these six seats are switchable, it doesn’t mean they will switch. As of tonight, the senate still looks like a 2 seat pick up for the Democrats. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. NC and GA are pure tossups. One from each party.

I will add this, swing voters who are willing to vote for candidates from either major party don’t give a cat’s meow as to who is responsible for inflation. They only care that it is and that it is hitting their pocketbooks. Let the political pundits figure out who’s to blame and let the two major parties go around blaming each other. That means nothing to them, only the fact it is for real. It’s like Greger says, these folks, these swing voters who do vote aren’t worried about what benefits will arrive in the future from either the infrastructure bill or the BBB. They’re worried about today, now, the present. Not next month, next year, five years from now or ten. Today.

I’ll add this, Biden and company better figure out a way to get the price of a gallon of gas down to around $3.00 by Nov 2022 or I’ll guarantee the Republicans will take control of the house. Pundits will be trying to make elections very complicated, they’re not usually. 2022 will center around price rises and possible empty shelves. 2020 centered around swing voters dislike of Trump as did 2018. 2016 was swing voters disliked Hillary more than Trump. 2010 and 14 the ACA was still the albatross around the Democrats necks. 2008, G.W. Bush’s recession and swing voters tired of war and so on.

Now if Biden and company get inflation under control, a new issue might replace it. He’s got a year. Oh, swing voters don’t give a coyote’s howl about Trump anymore. He’s ancient history, no longer in charge, no longer president. McAuliffe found this out in Virginia two weeks ago when swing voters went for Youngkin 54-45. Only a year ago, they went to Biden 57-38 in Virginia.

And Greger, I stand corrected. Now James Carville, now there was an excellent political strategist who knew how to win elections. Old snake eyes.

I figure Biden has 6 months. Because after that everything will be about the election.

No need to panic yet. Since we've tied this to the price of gasoline and not rent, or healthcare, or education...

Fuel prices are volatile and can change quickly. So is public opinion. He's got access to the best economists on the planet and six months to turn it around. But I suspect he will let his own ineptitude get in his way.