Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

Georgia is 35% black, give or take a point or two one way or the other. Interesting that through court ordered majority minority districts, we've had 5 black congressmen for quite a long time. That comes out to 35% of our congressional delegation. I live in David Scott's majority black district. What the Republicans have done in 2010 was stack the majority of blacks into those 5 districts along with as many white democrats they could get. So the end results was a 70-30 or an 80-20 win for the Democrats in those 5 districts, if the GOP even ran a candidate with the Republicans winning the other 9 by an average of 55-45.

I only used 2010 because that was the only year when Republicans drew the districts. In 2000 we had a Democratic controlled legislature and a democratic governor. Because of the change in demographics with CD-6 we now have 6 Democrats and 8 republicans. The total congressional vote in Georgia was 2.5 million for Republicans, 2.4 million for Democrats rounded off. Interesting that Biden received 100,000 more votes than the Democratic congressional candidates. Ticket splitters voting for Biden, but voting Republican down ballot.

I think what will happen is as many Democrats of all stripes will be packed into 6 districts, probably all majority minority leaving the Republicans easy winners in the other 8.

As for Gonzalez, Ohio was going to lose a representative anyway. The GOP has a 12-4 advantage in Ohio as it stands today. It might as well be Gonzalez Ohio's loses. 11-4 GOP. Depending on redistricting that is. I don't see how Ohio even in control of redistricting can maintain that huge margin. But time will tell.

Actually its not. Decent folks can't stand Donald Trump's guts - no matter which party.

In Wisconsin, Republicans maintained a 60+% advantage, entirely by partisan gerrymandering, despite barely clearing 50% of the vote. They're trying to expand that discrepancy, but I think the voters are tiring of it. Incumbency, however, has advantages (even illicit ones).

The US electorate is turning bluer, but its representation does not reflect that. Much of that is because of Constitutional structures, but the remainder is manipulation. At best, removing the manipulation will change the bias by a couple of percentage points, but about 3% of it is immune because of Constitutional mismatches. It will take decades of demographic and attitudinal change to flip that, but once it does it will be profound and lasting. Unfortunately, the damage inflicted in the interim will also be lasting.

You talking about Wisconsin reminded me of Cook's PVI or partisan voting index. Which states due to demographics, migration, in and out of the state, folks dying off and new voters being added. We have some states, especially in the south moving blue and some in the midwest, going red. the first number is from 2000 and the second 2020. A 20 year trend.

Arizona from an R+7 down to an R+3. Moving blue.
Florida R+3 Same rating as in 2000.
Georgia From an R+10 down to an R+3 Moving blue
Michigan from a D+6 to a R+1 Moving Red
North Carolina from an R+13 down to a R+3 moving blue
Ohio From an R+4 up to an R+6 Becoming more red
Pennsylvania from D+4 to a R+2 moving red
Texas from an R+20 down to an R+5 moving blue
Wisconsin from an D+10 to a R+2 moving red

So which party gains and which loses if Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas turn blue with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin becoming red states. Ohio is already red and Florida remains the same, a swing state. The big beneficiary would be the democrats 83-44. Mainly because of Texas with its 40 electoral votes.

I don't see Texas changing to blue in 2024, although the rest could indeed switch colors leaving the switch a wash. But in 2028, chances are the dems will add Texas giving them a real electoral college advantage.

then we'll see the opposite of today's popular vote debate taking place with the Democrats wanting to keep the electoral college and the GOP wanting to do away with it. 2028, a year to watch.

Michigan is only Red because of gerrymandering, but with the new maps being drawn by an independent commission (4 Republican, 4 Democrat and 5 Unaffiliated/Independents) things look to be changing. Changing in which way, check back 1 Jan 2022...

Da Commission - https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/

Looking at the PVI, Michigan is going red. At one time 20 years ago, Democrats out numbered Republicans there by quite a lot. Today, it's relative even between Republican and Democratic voters. A classic swing state. One also has to remember the once Democratic bastion of Detroit has had a shrinking population. Detroit had a population of 951,000 in 2000 and today is down to 639,000. That's a lot of Democratic voters to lose.

Gerrymandering very well could be the cause in the house. That's not what I'm talking about. That's not what PVI is all about. What PVI does is takes into account the states voting in presidential, senate, governor and congressional. The overall vote in congressional, not who won each one.

Just because Michigan has an R plus 1 today doesn't mean they're automatically going to vote Republican in every election from now into the future. It doesn't work that way. What it means is Republicans have finally caught up with Democrats in the number of voters in that state. It doesn't grantee who'll they vote for. Any state with a PVI of less than 5 for either party is considered a swing state. Independents can easily overcome the PVI advantage of either party. That happened here in Georgia last year. Republicans outnumber Democrats here by a PVI of 3, but independents voted for Biden by 53-44 margin enabling Biden to win Georgia and overcome the PVI of 3 or the Republican numerical advantage.

If independents had voted more 50-50, Trump would have won Georgia.

'Our state literally shrunk': Alabama makes history as deaths outnumber births in 2020

I've been saying this for awhile now. COVID will change everything and turn past historical statistics on its head.

Vaxx it or casket Karens.

We all make choices in life.

How pissed are Rightwingers going to be when they finally realize that their choice of listening to asinine Rightwing rhetoric and lies, caused their numbers to decline so much that they'll not win future elections.

Elections are just a numbers game - and these days, margins are so narrow in so many races, that COVID deaths WILL affect outcomes. Oh well.

I predict an election shellacking for the GOP in 2022 and it will be the first time, or first time in a long time, that the sitting party does not lose House or Senate seats and the Ds will actually gain seats.

I won't join you in that prediction Rick. Since 1934 only once has the party of the president gained seats in the house. 2002 when Bush was president, they gained 8 seats. But 9-11 was the cause in my opinion which united the country behind Bush and the GOP.

Just going by hard numbers, leaving the heart and feelings totally out of this, early indications are a 10-15 seat loss for the Democrats in the House, a 1-3 seat gain in the senate. Realistically, these hard numbers mean nothing this far out, too much time left. Redistricting also hasn't happened yet, which could change the hard numbers from today drastically. Here's the history. The average loss is 22 seats for the party that holds the presidency. I'd say the democrats probably will lose about half that. Which in my book, they beat the odds and that would be a victory. Time will tell

Trump lost 42 seats from 241 down to 199 in 2018, lost control of the house.
Obama lost 63 seats from 256 down to 193 in 2010 lost control of the house
*Bush gained 8 seats from 221 up to 229 in 2002
Clinton lost 54 seats from 258 down to 204 in 1994 lost control of the house
Bush lost 8 seats from 175 down to 167 in 1990
Reagan lost 26 seats from 192 down to 166 in 1982
Carter lost 15 seats from 292 down to 277 in 1978
Nixon lost 12 seats from 192 down to 180 in 1970
LBJ lost 47 seats from 295 down to 248 in 1966
JFK lost 4 seats from 262 down to 258 in 1962
Eisenhower lost 18 seats from 221 down to 203 in 1954 lost control of the house.
Truman lost 29 seats from 263 down to 234 in 1950


*Bush lost 33 seats in the 2006 house elections and lost control of the house