Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Gerrymandering

Yes, it was. From the very get-go...

NY Times

Fast forward to the civil war, which we seem to be still fighting, To The cold war and McCarthyism which we seem to still be fighting...the only difference between those earlier times is that one party has gone totally off the deep end.

Oregon has had mail-in since the 90s. Washington since the 2000s. California has had both since the 80s. WA and OR are both strictly mail-in.

So you're denying there has been any conflict over mail-in voting? Or just bragging that there has been zero conflict in your neighborhood?

I've voted by mail since the last redistricting/gerrymandering occurred. It put my voting precinct 10 miles in the wrong direction. It seems like a total no-brainer to me and seems to work perfectly everywhere.

And like pretty much everything else it's a problem manufactured solely for political gain.

My state and many others have moved to curb mail-in voting as it allows too many poors to vote.

Yes, too much too fast. Anything at all is too much too fast.

PART I STATES COMPLETED REDISTRICTING

Minnesota is state number 41 to have complete their redistricting, 9 more remaining. The democrats maintain their gerrymandering advantage of 14 seats, 11 new Democratic districts, minus 3 Republican districts. We now have 335 newly drawn districts; 100 districts remain to be redrawn.

Out of the 335 newly drawn districts, there are 33 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 21 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 15 Feb 2022, 161 Democratic, 141 Republican.

The below listed states are in litigation over their new maps. Idaho’s supreme court upheld the state’s new map and dismissed the lawsuit. These states in litigation will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits. Listed also is which state legislature drew the maps being challenged by lawsuits.

Georgia – Republican legislature
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature

_____________________________________________________________________________________
PART II Safe Seat/Competitive seat watch

With 41 states redistricting in the books, it’s time to switch focus from gerrymandering to safe seats. As of 15 Feb, the Democrats have 161 safe seats to 141 safe Republican seats. A 20-seat Democratic advantage. There are 9 states remaining who haven’t completed their redistricting which will change the above.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats in the competitive column a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 57 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 77. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 9 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column. The 9 remaining states are New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Wisconsin.

In short to remain in control of the House, the Democrats need 57 seats above their safe seat number. The Republicans need 77 above their safe seat number to take control of the house. 33 seats are in the competitive/switchable column, 21 Democratic, 12 Republican along with the 100 more districts to be redrawn which to obtain those seats from. These numbers alone will lead to a reliable forecast for the midterms in November once redistricting is completed.

PART I STATES COMPLETED REDISTRICTING

Rhode Island became the 42nd state to complete their redistricting, 8 more remaining. The democrats maintain their gerrymandering advantage of 14 seats, 11 new Democratic districts, minus 3 Republican districts. We now have 337 newly drawn districts; 98 districts remain to be redrawn.

Out of the 337 newly drawn districts, there are 34 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 22 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 18 Feb 2022, 162 Democratic, 141 Republican.

The below listed states are in litigation over their new maps. New York has been added to the list while Idaho’s supreme court upheld the state’s new map and dismissed the lawsuit. These states in litigation will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits. Listed also is which state legislature drew the maps being challenged by lawsuits.

Georgia – Republican legislature
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
New York – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature

_____________________________________________________________________________________
PART II Safe Seat/Competitive seat watch

With 42 states having completed their redistricting. As of 18 Feb, the Democrats have 162 safe seats to 141 safe Republican seats. A 21-seat Democratic advantage. There are 8 states remaining who haven’t completed their redistricting which will change the above.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive column a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 56 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 77. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 9 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column. The 8 remaining states are New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Wisconsin.

In short to remain in control of the House, the Democrats need 56 seats above their safe seat number. The Republicans need 77 above their safe seat number to take control of the house. 34 seats are in the competitive/switchable column, 22 Democratic, 12 Republican along with 98 more districts to be redrawn in which to obtain those seats from. These numbers alone will lead to a reliable forecast for the midterms in November once redistricting is completed.

This will probably be my last update on redistricting. I wish I could continue this until election day to show the ups and downs of each party chances as time passes. What’s shocking is how much the Democrats have gained due to redistricting/gerrymandering. Ensuring no red wave will happen. If I had to make a prediction on just the 44 states that have completed their redistricting, I’d have to go with the Democrats gaining 3 or 4 seats. But red states Florida, Missouri, Louisiana are still out there which will nullify the 3-4 seat gain by the democrats going by just 44 states. It’s been fun guys.

PART I STATES COMPLETED REDISTRICTING

North Carolina and Pennsylvania became the 43rd and 44th states to complete their redistricting, 6 more remaining. Changes from the old map, Democratic seats +14, Republican seats -5. Redistricting/gerrymandering has given the Democrats a 19-seat advantage. We now have 368 newly drawn districts; 67 districts remain to be redrawn.

Out of the 368 newly drawn districts, there are 35 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 23 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Safe seats as of 23 Feb 2022, 175 Democratic, 158 Republican.

The below listed states are in litigation over their new maps. These states in litigation will probably change the above listed safe and competitive seats depending on the outcome of the lawsuits. Listed also is which state legislature drew the maps being challenged by lawsuits.

Georgia – Republican legislature
Maryland – Democratic legislature
Nevada – Democratic legislature
New Mexico – Democratic legislature
New York – Democratic legislature
Texas – Republican legislature

_____________________________________________________________________________________
PART II Safe Seat/Competitive seat watch

With 44 states having completed their redistricting. As of 23 Feb, the Democrats have 175 safe seats to 158 safe Republican seats. A 17-seat Democratic advantage. There are 6 states remaining who haven’t completed their redistricting which will change the above.

The importance of safe seats is that they let you know how many seats from the competitive column a party must win to gain control of the House. As of today, the democrats need 43 more seats to reach the magic number of 218. The Republicans need 60. It remains to be seen how many safe seats each of the 6 remaining states add to each party’s safe seat column. The 6 remaining states are New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri and Wisconsin.

In short to remain in control of the House, the Democrats need 43 seats above their safe seat number. The Republicans need 60 above their safe seat number to take control of the house. 35 seats are in the competitive/switchable column, 23 Democratic, 12 Republican along with 67 more districts to be redrawn in which to obtain those seats from.

Y'know, Pero, after all this I'd hate to lose track of your political insights. Where else do you post this information?

I’ve posted it on Debate Politics and at times on the political forum. Both politics debating sites. It was on DP that Jeffrey told me about RR and asked me if I would like to join it. The problem with those, DP and the PF, is that they basically did away with blogs. You can post a new thread on them, but it isn’t the same. I love doing this, then after the election I compare my own forecasts with the political pundit predictions like Charlie Cook, Rothenberg, Larry Sabato, RCP, 538 and more.

Politico use to offer me a forum, but they did away with it. So, I basically do this for myself as a labor of love. I get my info from around 10 different sites, analysis it, combine it and average it out. I also like RR am just fading away. I think a lot of these political debate sites are also as facebook and other social media are replacing them. I don’t do facebook or any of the others. It is what it is.

I think the big difference is I let the numbers talk, not the heart or wants or wishes.

So Pero hopefully this site is still alive while I post this query. Where do you get your numbers from? And how do you compile them?

Sheesh. I did not see your previous post. OK then.