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The thing was about Biden in 2020 was he was the ONLY Dem candidate that could be Trump - even Trump knew that in 2019 - ergo the Ukrainian quid pro quo.
Recent polls show that Biden would beat Trump in a 2024 matchup as well.
It's up to the Democrats to pick a dynamic and exciting candidate in 2024.
I think they'll pick Biden again, if he's still feasible by then (I didn't think he was feasible in 2020). Mr. Biden was the last person I wanted to see nominated in 2020, but it didn't matter what I thought. It was already decided till we got to our PA primaries. Funny how all of Mr. Bidens opponents dropped out all about the same time. I think that's pretty much what the DNC did in 2020. Told them all it was Joe's turn and to step down or lose all funding. Grrrrr. So, I had to vote for Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden, or not at all. I don't like to not vote, so I had to pick Mr. Biden. I didn't really know any write ins, and to write in, would be the same as not voting anyway.
Biden was a safe candidate to beat Trump which was the number one priority of the Democrats. None of the other candidates were. To beat Trump, the democrats had to attract the independent, swing voters which Hillary Clinton in 2016 failed to do. Biden did exactly that winning independents 54-41. That’s a huge margin that normally doesn’t happen. Biden accomplished exactly what he was chosen to accomplish. Anything else was icing on the cake. To swing voters, independents, Biden was to be nothing more than a transition president, a president between Trump and whoever comes next.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
This election has been a tale of momentum and trends. The first one Republican from January up to the first week of August. Then the momentum and trend switched to the Democrats. But the end of September the momentum switched back to the GOP as the above shows. The same momentum, trend is shown in the House, the generic congressional ballot where the Republicans had the lead from January until August when the democrats took the lead and promptly lost the lead and momentum at the end of September.
According to Nate Silver of 538 fame, he gives the Republicans a 46 in 100 chance of winning control of both the house and the senate. A 35 in 100 chance of the Republicans winning the house and the democrats retaining the senate with an 18 in 100 of the Democrats retaining both the house and the senate.
Personally, I still favor the Republicans gaining 11-13 seats in the house with a 50-50 senate tie which means the Democrats with VP Harris casting the tie breaking vote retains control. Although this present trend, momentum needs keeping an eye on.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
I know what they said about Mr. Biden being the only one that could have beaten Mr. Trump in 2020. I don't believe it! People were tired of Trump. I think if they voted for Biden, they would have voted for any democrat, just to get away from Trump.
I still believe that. In 2024, if Trump runs again, I still think any democrat has as good of a chance of winning as Biden does. I actually also think, that if Trump runs in 2024, that Biden could very well be the weakest democratic opponent. A lot of people do not want Biden to run again in 2024 - including me.
I know what they said about Mr. Biden being the only one that could have beaten Mr. Trump in 2020. I don't believe it! People were tired of Trump. I think if they voted for Biden, they would have voted for any democrat, just to get away from Trump.
I still believe that. In 2024, if Trump runs again, I still think any democrat has as good of a chance of winning as Biden does. I actually also think, that if Trump runs in 2024, that Biden could very well be the weakest democratic opponent. A lot of people do not want Biden to run again in 2024 - including me.
A lot of people don’t want neither Trump nor Biden to run in 2024. Question 30. Do you want Joe Biden to run for president again in 2024? 22% yes, 54% no. Question 31 Do you want Donald Trump to run for president again in 2024? 25% yes, 59% no.
Now I study independents in depth, I know who Republicans and Democrats will vote for, they’re boring. Independents are finicky and all over the place, they swing wildly from election to election. Only 13% of independents want Biden to run again, 18% want Trump to run again. Both are losers in 2024 in my opinion unless they run against each other. Then one must win.
As for 2020, Biden was the only Democratic candidate that was attractive to the independent voters. Most other Democratic potential nominees had unfavorable above 50% and a couple above 60% among independents. Biden was the only candidate with a higher favorable than unfavorable. Biden could attract independents in a way no other 2020 potential Democratic candidate could. Simply put, Biden was popular among the independent voter whereas the others weren’t. For a swing voter like myself, the choice of Biden was a no brainier if the democrats wanted to ensure victory. I’m not saying other couldn’t win, but they’d have a hard time getting some independents to vote for them. Biden won the independent vote 54-41 over Trump. Biden did good in my book. When it comes to choosing nominees, I’m always amazed neither party takes independents into consideration. Of course, we all know independents must choose from whoever the two major parties nominate. Even if independents dislike both major party candidates and want both to lose. Then it becomes a vote for the candidate, party independents want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. A third-party vote is also a possibility for independents, 12% voted third party in 2016 when Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Clinton and 5% in 2020. You can be sure it was Biden who picked up that 7-point difference among those independents who voted third party. Could any other democratic candidate other than Biden do that, I doubt it.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
Thank for all of the statistics - enlightening. We'll never know if another candidate could have done so well. But, really, it seems they would have only needed about 42% of the vote to win. How many on the D side could have hit that golden 42% mark other than Biden?
You’re correct, Kaine. Since it didn’t happen, we’ll never know. I go by favorable/unfavorable ratings in hypothetical races like that as history as shown folks usually won’t vote for someone they dislike. It’s not perfect nor ideal, but it’s the best way I know.
Yes Jeffrey, it worked. I think the Democrats learned from 2016 whereas the Republicans didn’t. It wasn’t a secret independents were going for Biden over Trump big. When your candidate, Trump has a 60% unfavorable rating from independents, that means you’re not going to win the independent vote. A must for Republicans nationally since they’re still the smaller of the two major parties. They always have been since FDR. Not much difference these days, not like in the past when the Democratic Party was the big tent party, but the democrats still hold a slight edge. Roughly 2 points give or take a point or two..
From FDR until Reagan those who affiliated themselves with the democratic party averaged 45-28 over the Republican Party. That was the big tent era where the democrats controlled the house for 58 out of 62 years. From Reagan until Obama that average dropped to 35-30 and from Obama it’s 30-27 as of September 2022.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
