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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Mar 2008
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stranger
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stranger
Joined: Mar 2008
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I don't know if anyone else has posted this, as I have only read bits and parts of this 27 page spead thread... but for a bit of comic relief I offer this tidbit.
A Big Ole Gay Member of the Last Great Oppressed American Minority since 1970...
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OP
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Recession fears weigh on marketsGlobal stock markets have seen mixed trading, with Wall Street showing volatility while European markets fell for a second day running and Tokyo suffered its worst loss in two decades.
Although US stocks climbed on a late rally, news that US industrial output has suffered its worst fall in more than three decades spelled gloom for the wider economy.
The Dow Jones index of leading US shares closed higher by 400 points, or 4.7 per cent, at 8,979 on Thursday. Guess what is going to happen tomorrow! ____________
Last edited by numan; 10/17/08 02:48 AM.
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_____________________ [b]Wall street Fear Index Hits All-...rted Territory; "Frantic Pace"(Reuters)—The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, Wall Street’s main barometer of investor fear, surged to new highs on Thursday, in a sign investors remain cautious and anticipate more market turmoil.
The widely-watched VIX vaulted to an unprecedented high of 81.17 before retracing to 78.62, up 13.68%.
“We are seeing the VIX enter new historic levels as investors and traders continue to seek out protection and hedges at an apparently more frantic pace,” said Scott Fullman, director of derivative investment strategy at broker-dealer WJB Capital in New York.
The index blew past last Friday’s record highs of 76.94 and is now in uncharted territory based on the modern VIX format which only goes back to 1990.
Last edited by numan; 10/17/08 09:35 PM.
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Joined: May 2006
Posts: 950
journeyman
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journeyman
Joined: May 2006
Posts: 950 |
Some interesting quotes from history...by the "experts" of that day:
"We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929
"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929
"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929
"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929
"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929
"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930
"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930
"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930
"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930
"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
"The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them."~Patrick Henry
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Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 6,428 Likes: 1
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 6,428 Likes: 1 |
Excellent! 
Life is Good!
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,853
veteran
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OP
veteran
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,853 |
Commercial Property Market to Hit Rock Bottom Next YearCommercial real estate will bottom out in 2009, flounder in 2010 and begin a slow recovery in 2011, according to a report on emerging real estate trends released today.
“Commercial real estate has only just begun to correct, it’s way behind everything else,” Jonathan Miller, a partner at real estate consultancy Miller Ryan, said during a conference call regarding the report, which was put out by the Urban Land Institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Mr. Miller noted that the housing, stock and bond markets have already entered into corrections, while commercial real estate has remained relatively unscathed. "Corrections," ha! Bloody lumps on the slaughter-house floor! -
Last edited by numan; 10/21/08 09:16 PM.
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,853
veteran
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OP
veteran
Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,853 |
History's biggest margin callMarkets were not only absolutely wrong, they were absolutely wrong on so many things on such an unprecedented global basis. Now things are blowing up. In the thick of it all, confidence in the securitization, "repo" and derivatives markets has been broken.
As a result, Wall Street simply no longer has the wherewithal to apportion ample finance for securities speculation. Without speculative demand for high-yielding loans and securities, bubble economies are starved of sufficient finance. And with asset markets bursting everywhere, this has quickly evolved into history's biggest margin call.
Scores of derivative structures used to speculate in the asset bubbles have collapsed - because of counterparty issues, illiquidity, or the structures just didn't make any sense to begin with.
Moreover, the whole notion that derivatives would provide an effective hedging mechanism is proving a fallacy. Again, counterparty issues and illiquidity are the culprits. Markets can't hedge themselves, as there is no one with the wherewithal to take the other side of the trade (especially during devastating bear markets). In particular, the credit default swap structure is proving an unmitigated disaster - for bond, equities and currency markets. Hopefully this period of liquidation and deleveraging will be over very soon. Hah! The obligatory (and false) bit of optimism at the end! It's going to be a long and bumpy ride down the hill. This article is five pages long. It is well worth-while to glance over some of the detailed reports contained in it. -
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,853
veteran
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OP
veteran
Joined: Aug 2008
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Greenspan admits 'flaw' in ideologyAlan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, has publicly admitted that the US free-market ideology that he and others have championed for decades is flawed.
Greenspan, who headed the US central bank for more than 18 years, said on Thursday that he had "found a flaw ... in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works".
[SNIP]
Greenspan said he was shocked at the banks' inability to self-regulate....
Greenspan also said that the current crisis had "turned out to be much broader than anything that I could have imagined"....
He admitted he had also been "partially" wrong in opposing the regulation of derivatives in recent years. I don't believe that lying S.O.B. for an instant. But if what he says were true, it would mean that all our lives, fortunes and sacred honor are in the hands of unutterable morons! "But he is an expert"Big deal! When are people going to wake up enough to know that they cannot trust the experts and the authorities?!! Herr Professor Doctor Greenspan deserves a big boot up his arse! He and his ilk should be wearing dunce caps and made to write at the blackboard, "I will not do it again," about ten trillion times! -
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Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,853
veteran
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- It is rather hard to ride a tsunamiHERE COMES THE BANKRUPTCY WAVE!Not only is the credit crisis forcing more companies into bankruptcy, it's making it harder for them to climb out of it.
Troubled businesses that in years past might have been able to restructure are increasingly being forced to liquidate, because skittish lenders are pushing for fire sales to recoup what they're owed as soon as possible.
Changes made to the bankruptcy laws three years ago have also accelerated the bankruptcy process, putting pressure on debtors to wind down if they don't immediately turn out a viable restructuring plan.
Meanwhile, the dreary credit markets are making it tougher for borrowers on the skids to line up what is called debtor-in-possession financing, or credit lines used to finance a business through the bankruptcy process.
Last edited by numan; 11/04/08 01:15 AM.
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veteran
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- An article by Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under Ronald Reagan: America's "Economic Egotism" : World Tires of Rule by Dollar....the burden on foreigners and on world savings of having to finance American consumption, the US government’s wars and military budget, and the US financial bailout is increasingly resented.
This resentment, combined with the harm done to America’s reputation by the financial crisis, has led to numerous calls for a new financial order in which the US plays a substantially lesser role. “Overcoming the financial crisis” are code words for the rest of the world’s intent to overthrow US financial hegemony.
[SNIP]
The Chinese are expressing other thoughts that would get the attention of a less deluded and arrogant American government. Zhou Jiangong, editor of the online publication, Chinastates.com, recently asked: “Why should China help the US to issue debt without end in the belief that the national credit of the US can expand without limit?”
Zhou Jiangong’s solution to American excesses is for China to take over Wall Street.
China has the money to do it, and the prudent Chinese would do a better job than the crowd of thieves who have destroyed America’s financial reputation while exploiting the world in pursuit of multi-million dollar bonuses.
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