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You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete. R. Buckminster Fuller
I think many forget we rode this train last cycle. Outsiders zoomed to the front early, flashed, then burnt out. People love a challenger until the campaign gets down to brass tacks, then they go all "establishmenty." That is why Clinton and Bush (and Romney and McCain in previous cycles) have the advantage. Obama was the exception that proved the rule, and mostly because of his exceptional organizing prowess. This year is different because of the money, so Cruz and Huckabee, Trump and Fiorina, maybe even Paul, can stick around longer, but they won't gain traction. They will peak around 20-25% - enough to disrupt the race, but not to win it.
I'm betting on a Jindal announcement soon.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
The next big Republican scandal is going to explode today. Kevin McCarthy, the heir apparent to Speaker of the House, admitted that the entire Benghazi scandal is nothing but a taxpayer funded hit job on Hillary.
I don't think it occurs to the man that if you essentially admit that your entire party just put up the Benghazi scandal as a taxpayer subsidized witch hunt, you've discredited your entire party.
Last edited by Jeffery J. Haas; 09/30/1505:37 PM.
"The Best of the Leon Russell Festivals" DVD deepfreezefilms.com
WASHINGTON — Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has strengthened his lead at the top of the USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll while two other outsider candidates, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina, have gained ground over rivals with electoral experience.
Jeb Bush, who two months ago was second to Trump in the USA TODAY survey, has tumbled to single digits and fifth place. The third-place finisher last time, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, suspended his campaign entirely this month.
milk and Girl Scout cookies ;-)
Save your breath-You may need it to blow up your date.
On another thread we have a great discussion going about the meaning of John Boehner's resignation, and I almost posted this there, but I think it is important for this broader discussion. Meet the Four Kinds of GOP Voters. The premise of the article, in trying to understand the polling strength of various candidates, is that the Republican electorate is not homogeneous, but made up of discernible types:
Quote
I see clearly four different types of GOP primary voters and caucus-goers. Not all of them, of course, are conservatives or even Republicans, since independents and even Democrats can vote in some of the early GOP primaries. Figuring out who these voters are and what they’re looking for is critical to each of the remaining candidates—because they’re not all equally up for grabs.
The GOP’s “True Believers” - what we used to call "died in the wool" - "aren’t for turning or wooing, at least not easily." They are the fervent acolytes for particular candidates, and won't change until their candidate is gone - if even then.
"The second category of GOP voters is the “Buckley Voters,” so called because they tend to follow the “Buckley Rule” and support the most conservative candidate they see as plausibly winning the presidency in the fall of next year." We see a lot of this in polls asking who is "most electable." "Buckley Voters are real deal small government, big defense, pro-life and pro-religious freedom conservatives, but they insist on being able to reach 270 electoral votes. They want, more than anything, another Reagan." [oh, GOD no!]
"That third category of voters are what I call 'center-right governing conservatives.'" These are the "old line" conservatives who are actually interested in passing legislation, and effective government. They, unfortunately, are the least "passionate" of Republican supporters, perhaps the "silent majority" - but not the influential majority.
Finally, there are the “Uniques.” "They are in this election to support a candidate for a unique reason or because of that candidate’s specific platform." Think of Graham (who also appeals to the "governing conservatives" bloc), and Rand Paul's libertarian-Republicans. They tend to be "single issue" voters, so it is hard for them to trust other candidates that don't focus on that issue.
In approaching this analysis, it is important to remember this is coming from a Republican advocate, not some left-wing critic. There are parallels on the left as well. I know that I am in the "governing Democrat" mold, even if not technically a Democrat. I am most interested in good policy.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
Jon Stewart is sometimes more respected as a serious journalist than people who do TV journalism for a living on American TV and cable news. Maybe it's time we started giving a little grudging respect to CRACKED for the print version?
#5. He Blames A Specific Group Of Immigrants For All Our Problems (And Promises To Eliminate Them From Our Society) #4. He'll Sell His Hate As Hope For The Poorest Citizens In This Country #3. Don't Think Concentration Camps, Just Think Prisons #2. Not Taking Him Seriously Makes Him More Dangerous #1. He Used To Keep A Copy Of Hitler's Sequel To Mein Kampf By His Bed
On Wednesday, Sept. 30, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson reflected on his youth. Remembering when he and his friends would be chased by police for mischief, he said, "That was back in the day before they would shoot you." There was laughter from the almost exclusively white crowd. Carson, perhaps sensing that he went too far, then immediately backed off of the statement and said, "I'm just kidding, you know they wouldn't do that."
Democrats pounce as Bush defends 'stuff happens' remarks
Quote
"We're in a difficult time in our country and I don't think more government is necessarily the answer to this. I think we need to reconnect ourselves with everybody else. It's very sad to see. I resist the notion," Bush said at a campaign stop in South Carolina. "I had this challenge as governor, 'cause we had, look, stuff happens, there's always a crisis. And the impulse is always to do something and it's not necessarily the right thing to do."
If Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has his way, this will be the last week for a while when he can say he's still running for president and see that statement reported as news. On Monday, he was fending off a quote from anonymous "GOP strategist" who said he might drop out soon; on Tuesday, it was Donald Trump, a preternaturally talented taunter, who said Paul might quit. Thursday's announcement of a wan $2.5 million fundraising haul started a new round of pundit speculation, asking when Paul might just hang it up and run for re-election to his Senate seat.
It doesn't say much for the vigor of a campaign when a candidate has to insist he hasn't quit.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
![[Linked Image from wordsmith.org]](http://wordsmith.org/words/images/guff_large.jpg)
