Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2016

Has Greger come down off of the bridge yet?

I hope so
Poor G-man...

I know right? Didn't we both tell him that the sun will keep on rising, there's going to be brighter days, and everything is going to be Alright?

Here's my estimate of the volatility of the polls based on the spread between Clinton and Trump. Note the spike at the most recent dates.

I've been told that convention bounces mean nothing.

You laugh....but I was right about Trump getting the nomination at an uncontested Convention.....

Exactly - they don't mean a whole lot FOR ANYONE!
Trump has no advantage - but a lot of disadvantages.
The nomination is not a general election.
What makes you think he can win the election??
If memory serves you were pretty sure Obama was going to lose for a while there.

Whether Obama won or lost was of little consequence to me, I deemed him more electable at the time because Republicans were prepared to defeat Clinton. I was rooting for him but not so much that I was willing to give up my Independent status and actually cast a vote between him and Clinton. Just like this time around. If Sanders had won I would have been slightly disappointed but certainly not butthurt enough to withhold a vote in the general election. There was nothing about Sanders' ideology that I disagreed with, my problem with Sanders is that he has been in Washington for 30 years and has failed to build any sort of working coalition with the Democrats he would depend on in Congress if he hoped to move his agenda forward. It is, and has been, my opinion that Clinton will actually be able to move the progressive agenda forward farther than Sanders would be able to. Sanders' crowning achievement in his long and illustrious career in Washington is that he has moved the Democratic Party farther to the left than they have ever been.
For this we owe him an immense debt of gratitude.

Regarding a Trump victory, I'm only half serious about that. This race is far closer than it should be, given the two candidates and their qualifications, it shouldn't be close at all and I suspect that it really isn't. Even Nate Silver lives and dies by clicks and ratings. Everyone involved in the media is determined to make this race look as close as possible, it's how they make a living after all. Like PIA, I question the methods used to gather information for polls. They represent only a small slice of the population who have landlines and are willing to answer them and agree to participate in the poll. It's a blurry snapshot at best and at worst a barely recognizable sketch by a not very talented artist.

You are partially right. The polls do have a bias (but they use cell phones as well and they try to randomize the samples), but the bias comes more from the survey questions.
If you look a little deeper you'll see that Nate (who does not do surveys himself, but rather analyzes and critiques them) adjusts his forecasts for the bias.
The reason that the race SEEMS so close is because the information is incomplete. And again, I agree, everyone in the media wants it seem closer than it probably is because that's how they get paid. But you would do well to remember that Clinton's unfavorable ratings are as high as Trump's, hence, she is battling on two fronts:
1) fixing her own image
2) showing Trump for the a$$hole he is

But you do have a promising career as a writer of dystopian stories.
As for Sanders, I disagree. Any time anyone raises the bar in political discourse is a good time. Took him 30 years. Ms. Clinton has yet to do that. We shall see.

My feeling is that she will fix her own image after she's elected. It's pretty much impossible right now with the attacks coming both from the right and the left. To her detractors and those who listen to them, nothing she says or does will convince them she is anything less than the Wicked Witch of the West. Just try to convince Rick that she's not center right, a shill for wall street, and Republican Light. It aint gonna happen and he's not nearly as anti-Clinton as many lefties.
She doesn't need to show Trump for the assh0le he is. He's done a remarkable job of doing that himself. Unfortunately it doesn't matter to Republican voters they are also assh0les who just love having their hot buttons pushed. Truth and facts mean nothing to them. Why do you think there is no equivalent of Rush Limbaugh on the left? Trump is nothing but Limbaugh with deeper pockets and bigger dreams.

That's because half of the American voters are being political nihilists.