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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
I'm looking the trend on FiveThirtyEight. The now -cast has her over 90%, with the other predictions over 80%. Utah is in play. The Upshot (NY Times) has it at 88% to 12%. All forecasts are more aligned and less volatile (as I mentioned earlier, more reliable).
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 17,985 Likes: 178
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 17,985 Likes: 178 |
The longer she maintains this lead, the higher the probability. 4 of five pundits say, "it's over." The greatest risk now is Democratic complacency.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
The LA Times is an outlier - they're polling the same people every day. The LA Times is doing an experiment with USC to determine how much the needle moves every day for the same set of voters given the day's news cycle. LA Times Polling Methodology
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
The LA Times is an outlier - they're polling the same people every day. The LA Times is doing an experiment with USC to determine how much the needle moves every day for the same set of voters given the day's news cycle. LA Times Polling Methodology So not really a poll. Doesn't sound like it will yield anything useful either.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
The LA Times is NOT a poll, but it does show how perceptions and inclinations change. It is useful information.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
The sample is contaminated. Information is useless.
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,245 Likes: 33
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,245 Likes: 33 |
The greatest risk now is Democratic complacency. If (some) voters are that lax about not using their ballot power and therefore allowing a very disturbed and totally unprepared man to take the reigns of US power, perhaps we all deserve what will then ensue. I think its safe to say this is the most disturbing and consequential election of our lifetimes. Perhaps ever in our history--Abe L. excluded. Gawd help us all.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,245 Likes: 33
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,245 Likes: 33 |
Ryan called it quits re: Trump. A very brave man. Statesman like doncha think Zeke?
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,991 Likes: 128
veteran
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veteran
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,991 Likes: 128 |
The greatest risk now is Democratic complacency. If (some) voters are that lax about not using their ballot power and therefore allowing a very disturbed and totally unprepared man to take the reigns of US power, perhaps we all deserve what will then ensue. Hey! I don't deserve it!!!!
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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![[Linked Image from s18.postimg.org]](https://s18.postimg.org/6rs5rtca1/Trump1.png)
