Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Campaign 2016

Rick astutely pointed this out:

Donald Trump calls Hillary Clinton a 'globalist.' He's the one that off-shores his branded items
Donald Trump goes after Bill Clinto for being a perv; yet it is Donald Trump who says he just goes up to women and kisses them and grabs their pu55y.
For two debates, Donald Trump is sniffling. 'Some say' it's cocaine. He wants to drug test Hillary.

10. What would keep me up late at night if I were Trump?

I’m not sure I can keep up the gag of pretending that Trump has some sort of rational inner monologue. So instead, I’ll think of this question as what would keep me up late at night if I were Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager. And the answer is that the Trump campaign was never really set up to have a strong finishing kick. Trump has considerably less cash on hand than Clinton; he also has a much inferior ground game and is burning bridges with Republicans who could help him. And in the primaries, Trump consistently struggled with late-deciding voters, perhaps because he was such a polarizing candidate. So even if Trump catches a couple of breaks over the final weeks, he might not be poised to take advantage of them.

09/29/15 Predictions:* the GOP field is not likely to be winnowed much further until February (excepting maybe Jindal and Gilmore). After the three earliest States there will be a large exodus. Santorum, Pataki, Carson, Fiorina, and maybe even Christie, will drop out. Huckabee and Paul will be clinging to life with a hope for a "southern strategy" and unique constituencies. Theirs are "issues" candidacies, not real contenders (as is Graham's).

On the Dem side, Murray and Chafee will bow out. Sanders will have done well enough in New Hampshire and Iowa to keep it a race and continue to push Clinton to the left. Clinton will find that to not be such an uncomfortable place to be, as she has been shoring up her bona fides on that side consistently already (Keystone, immigration, etc.).

By mid-March, Clinton will have cleared the field, begun to pivot to the General election, and be gearing up for the Convention and establishing the juggernaut of a campaign. The GOP field will still be in flux. Trump may bow out by April, or may take his marbles to an Independent run. Rubio and Bush will be slugging it out for the establishment mantle, with Kasich clinging to relevance. Huckabee may finally run out of money and give inb with a sanctimonious speech about the importance of "values". Cruz will be riding the "outsider" money train and continue being the obnoxious a-h he always is (all the way to the Convention) where he will be a disruptive, destructive force hampering his party's chances in November.

* Bookmark this so you can laugh at me come May.

07/12/16 I think that the Clinton campaign has reached its low point of support during this election and that she will see a steady increase in support of about 1% per month, winning the election by about 10% points in the popular and a landslide in the electoral college (between 312 and 342 - picked 323). Watch this space.

Or, you can play at home: interactive map by CNN.

Here's my thinking: The general polling is nearly worthless, but Clinton has maintained a lead throughout of about 5%. In battleground States, her lead has been generally larger. After the conventions, the ground game will begin to take hold, and Clinton's advantage is significant. Trump will get some more Republican support, but it will not help substantially. I think ALL of the battleground States favor Clinton, and Arizona and Utah are in play as well.