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Dec 6th, 2017
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
Trump 'winds down' fundraising. Translation: We know we're not going to win. Mediaite.com
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
Looks like the third party Mormon Businessman Evan McMullin is going to win Utah. Trump can't get to 270 Electoral Votes without Utah. CNBC.com
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
That actually increases his chances to win. If nobody gets 270 electoral votes it goes to the House. I think they get to pick from the top three electoral winners which would almost surely be Clinton, Trump, and McMullin.
I doubt they would pick McMullin.
Pretty unlikely though. 538 has Clinton at 332 votes without Utah. McMullin and Trump could actually split the Republican votes in Utah and let Clinton win. It all depends on those Mormon women who could be secret Clinton voters. (Apparently not all that uncommon for married women to tell pollsters they go along with their husbands choice but to vote their own in the voting booth. There's a good reason you go in the voting booth alone!)
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
I am curious: Why would you announce that you plan to block all of the next President's Supreme Court nominees BEFORE the election? Doesn't this seem like it could hurt your chances of maintaining a Senate majority?
Or have they given up on that already and are just trying to appeal to their bases in their own reelections? Who benefits from announcing these plans? Are the Senators who announced this idea so far into senility they can't see it would be better to NOT announce them?
Or is this some sort of alternate reality fantasy? Game theory assumes rational opponents. So what is really happening here?
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,991 Likes: 128
veteran
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veteran
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 11,991 Likes: 128 |
Or is this some sort of alternate reality fantasy? Game theory assumes rational opponents. So what is really happening here? Some of the opponents are irrational?
You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
To change something, build a new model that makes the old model obsolete.
R. Buckminster Fuller
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Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257
Pooh-Bah
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Pooh-Bah
Joined: Feb 2006
Posts: 12,129 Likes: 257 |
On the other hand, Alan Turing simplified the enigma code breaking vastly because the Germans ended every encrypted message with "Heil Hitler" and the first message of the day always started with "Weather Report". The brute force encryption was taking way too long until he changed it to only consider the keys that made those words decrypt to that.
Perfect example of non-rational behavior in your opponent, leading directly to winning the war.
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 17,985 Likes: 178
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 17,985 Likes: 178 |
Here's something that should be a major through-line in national reporting: Clinton Voters Aren’t Just Voting Against Trump. The latest ABC News survey reveals that, in fact, Clinton’s voters feel about as positively about their candidate as any candidate’s supporters have felt about their own preferred candidate since 1980. Trump voters are less enthusiastic about him: Since 1980, no group of supporters has been less affirmative in its support for its candidate.
Right now, 56 percent of Clinton voters say they are mainly for her compared with just 42 percent of the same voters who say they are voting against Trump. This 56 percent is the highest it’s been all year in the ABC News poll, and it’s been steadily climbing for Clinton since July. In the same survey, only 41 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting for him, while 54 percent say they are mostly voting against Clinton. Those numbers are about the same as they’ve been all year.
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 17,985 Likes: 178
Moderator Carpal Tunnel
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Moderator Carpal Tunnel
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 17,985 Likes: 178 |
A new ‘war on women’ breaks out. This time, it’s inside the Republican Party. - WaPo. What is particularly interesting is the impact of having a reprehensible misogynist candidate, supported by reprehensible misogynist surrogates, means for a party headlined by misogyny. The Republican platform has, for decades, been terrible for issue that actually impact women, and are of interest to women. What Trump's candidacy has done has brought to the fore all of the issues that women have had with the party, with no sugarcoating or cute phrasing. Trump really does represent the leadership of the party. “If the GOP has truly convinced itself that openly engaging in sexual assault fantasies is something normal that men do among one another, I have a suggestion. Relocate the Republican National Committee headquarters into a men’s-only locker room,” [Amanda] Carpenter[, a conservative commentator and former communications director for Sen. Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign] wrote. “Eliminate all pretenses of wanting to let women in.”
A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.
Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich
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Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
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Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
Looks like the third party Mormon Businessman Evan McMullin is going to win Utah. Trump can't get to 270 Electoral Votes without Utah. CNBC.com That actually increases his chances to win. If nobody gets 270 electoral votes it goes to the House. I think they get to pick from the top three electoral winners which would almost surely be Clinton, Trump, and McMullin.
I doubt they would pick McMullin.
Pretty unlikely though. 538 has Clinton at 332 votes without Utah. McMullin and Trump could actually split the Republican votes in Utah and let Clinton win. It all depends on those Mormon women who could be secret Clinton voters. (Apparently not all that uncommon for married women to tell pollsters they go along with their husbands choice but to vote their own in the voting booth. There's a good reason you go in the voting booth alone!) Looks like Evan McMullin keeping Trump from reaching 270 is the real, deal.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388
old hand
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old hand
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,388 |
Now who would have thunk it  ![[Linked Image from s11.postimg.org]](http://s11.postimg.org/ihjab50tv/Graph2.png)
"The liberals can understand everything but people who don't understand them."
Lenny Bruce
"The cleverest of all, in my opinion, is the man who calls himself a fool at least once a month."
Dostoevsky
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