Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

39% reporting in California and Sanders is winning, but with only about 31% of the votes. If you add up the centrists percentages, I think they will ask their delegates to vote for Biden, and then he will have over 55%.

Consider this in context: There are 20 Democrats running for President in California. You have to get 15% to get any delegates. At the moment, that's just Sanders, Bloomberg, and Biden. (Warren is at 12%.) Sanders has 31%, and between Bloomberg and Biden, they have 38.1%. So Sanders ends up with about 45% of the delegates in possibly the most progressive state in the country. Over the whole country, he has to do worse. It's not enough.

70% reporting in California and Sanders has 32.8% Bloomberg has 15% and Biden has 23.9%. Bloomberg + Biden is 38.9%. Centrist over the left by 54%.

Dow futures looking set for a rally today. Financial rags calling it a Biden rally. Seems like the Democracy Inc. is feeling good about last night.

It's over, total delegate awarded won't be known for a couple of days. I was wrong about Texas going to Sanders. Apparently the Hispanic vote there didn't save him. Biden also took Maine. It'll be interesting to crunch the exit polls numbers, at least for me. On 28 Feb Sanders held the lead in 10 of the 14 states. He ended up winning 4. The big one, California, Colorado, Vermont and Utah. Outside of Utah which will go Trump in November, the other three are guaranteed to go blue.

Biden did win the swing states of Minnesota and North Carolina. Some put Virginia in the swing state category which Biden won. I don't. For me the big surprises were Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Texas, Virginia where Biden was 5 to 16 points behind on 29 Feb.

The next big round is on 10 Mar. No info or polls on North Dakota, Mississippi and Idaho. As of this AM Sanders leads Biden in Michigan by 11 and in Washington State by 20. Biden leads in Missouri by 12.

I assume Biden will be strong in North Dakota, Mississippi and Idaho. But you know what they say about assumptions.

Vote count difference between Sanders and Biden, in Texas, was 71K. Rough analysis but closing 750 polling stations in hispanic/Black precints would be apx. 100 voters less per precints voting.

Sanders supporters are working class. The tradional strategy for conservatives is to make it hard for working class to vote by limiting access to the ballot.

I don't believe the Latinos failed to deliver in Texas. Democrats knee capped him there.

Still trying to figure out how a candidate can pull thousands out on a workday can lose to someone who had no organization to speak of and no polling just days before super Tuesday. This would have to be one of the largest political upsets in recent memory done by a candidate who had no presence, organization, outspent and clearly sundowning from the grind of the campaign.

Massachusetts is another amazing swing. Sanders brought out 12k at a rally there, during a work day, and was poised to take over Warren right before Tuesday. Mass does not take it's voting cues from South Carolina. No one saw Biden beating either Warren or Sanders but here you are. Biden ate sh!t in New Hampshire but apparently South Carolina endorsements from the party establishment put him over the top in a state he trailed badly with no organization, ground game to speak off prior to the vote.

Possible? Mebbe, but Biden?

Smells a bit. Waiting for the reports.

Here's the popular vote total so far.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Delegate count

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Because most people know who they're going to vote for before the election even starts. You did, for example.

Warrens suspending her campaign

It will be interesting who she endorses. Will be an interesting reveal and have much to say about her 'progressive' narrative that's been advertised.