Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

Personal feelings or are numbers in play. As a numbers guy, I'm more interested in independents than Republicans and Democrats. History has shown that on average Republicans and democrats vote for their party's candidate 90% of the time regardless of who that candidate is.

But let's look at swing states, Trump vs. Biden, Trump vs. Sanders. Too early to put much stock in these, but interesting and they might reflect why 66% of democrats think Biden can beat Trump vs 52% that sanders could. I don't have numbers on all swing states, but the one's I do.

Arizona, Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Florida, Biden tied with Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Iowa Trump leading both Biden and Sanders
Michigan Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Minnesota Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Nevada Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
New Hampshire Trump leading both Biden and Sanders
North Carolina Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Ohio Biden leading Trump, Trump leading Sanders
Pennsylvania Both Biden and Sanders leading Trump
Wisconsin Trump leading both Biden and Sanders

As of today, Biden does give the democrats a better chance of winning certain swing states, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio. But the general election campaign hasn't kicked in and there's been no personal attacks. Those could change these dynamics. But in almost every swing state, Biden is doing 2-4 points better against Trump than Sanders is.

The national averages it's Biden 50-44 over Trump, Sanders 48-46 over Trump. As of today, numbers say Biden has the best chance of defeating Trump. Come November, no one knows. Things can change in a hurry as proved pre and post South Carolina.

Things can change on a hurry between exit polling and official reporting.
The party has been engaged in a media narrative since day one and the polling numbers will be used when it’s convenient to do so.

But they are transitory especially when it comes to Trump vs. Biden.

Coupla things that will wreck those poll numbers:

Republicans will be hauling Biden into criminal investigations over Burisma. Subpoenas are getting readied. Joes got dirt under his nails here.

He continues to mentally deteriorate on the trail. Debates may prove difficult for him going forward between Sanders or Trump, if he makes it.

Front runner status means his consummate insider record will become an issue regarding trade, equal rights, support for reactionary Supreme Court justices, trying to cut social security, etc..,

All of this and much more makes for a lot of drag on his numbers going forward.
The left has been publicly ratf#cked by the party again. I don’t think they will come out this time nor should they. Without that support I doubt his numbers will stand up to Trumps going down the road.

Probably true. But I take it you're not worried about Trump and company branding Sanders a socialist? Having many tapes of Sanders himself describing himself as a Democratic Socialist. I'm positive Trump and company will be running those tapes night and day. Will it be successful or not, who knows? But according to Gallup only 45% of independents say they would vote for a socialist. That's throwing half of the independent vote away if Trump and company are successful in branding Sanders as such.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/285563...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

I'm not saying those independents who don't like Trump will end up voting for him because of his branding Sanders as a socialist. One must remember 12% of independents voted third party in 2016, against both Trump and Clinton. That number might rise to 20% or higher if the socialist tag sticks. Which it might being the ads displaying Sanders calling himself a democratic socialist.

Is Biden the best candidate to beat Trump of the two remaining, probably in my opinion. But not in the beginning field. I would put Hickenlooper first, then Klobuchar. Both far more attractive to the independent voter. But independents don't decide who will be the Democratic nominee, Democrats do.

It's like 2016, a poll showed in Feb of that year that 56% of all Americans wanted the Democrats to nominate someone other than Hillary Clinton. The Democrats ignored America as a whole which was their right to do so. No doubt about that. But ignoring America as a whole brought about who we have in the White House today.

I'm not a partisan or an ideologue or one who has a favorite candidate. Just a numbers guy who studies who might have the better chance. You might be correct, then again perhaps neither one, Biden nor Sanders is the right candidate to beat Trump. Time will tell. I can only go by the numbers and data in hand today, I have no idea what the numbers will say come November.

And Covid-19 could dramatically change the 2020 election: Any of the three candidates could die. We could wind up with President Pelosi before the election. The Senate could lose members, as could the House. Remember, it's especially lethal to the elderly.

I suspect things will look very different in a month.

Stock market is liable to go off another cliff tomorrow, too.

Donald Trump is at the helm as we witness the biggest stock market crash in history.

It could be a completely different world in a month.

With a few tweets, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez HAS CHANGED EVERYTHING.




Goddamn the Righties HATE her with a passion.
It is HILARIOUS.

Would we allow another 30 year assault on another female potential candidate?

Very true. Things could look very different on Wednesday,11 Mar if Sanders wins Michigan and Washington State tomorrow.

All it takes to change things 180 degrees is one huge mistake or some major unforeseen event or happening.

Here's the latest delegate count going into tomorrow. Updated by RCP as of this AM.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

And the popular vote totals.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Well, yeah. The dems lack the cojones to do anything about it.

I think it all depends on who the female candidate is. Would Republican women vote for AOC or Democratic women for Nikki Hailey? No they wouldn't. I don't think even independent women would vote for either of them if the other party had a more moderate candidate running.

The R and the D next to a candidates name, regardless of gender take precedence over who the candidate is among the party faithful. History shows that on average 90% of those who affiliate with either party will vote for their party's candidate regardless of who that candidate is.

So it's left to independents to decide. This time around I think independents would have gone for Klobuchar, Baldwin, Duckworth, a Rosen, but not a Warren or an AOC. The democrats themselves decided a big no on Klobuchar. Ideology plays an important fact in determing who the two major parties nominate. This year the democrats themselves chose two old 78 year old's, white, males.

The first female president will be one who can attract independent voters, either center, center left or center right who's opponent is either very far left or far right. Mark my word on it.