Capitol Hill Blue Forums Science and Technology Health, Medicine & the healing Sciences Coronavirus: The Plague of The 21st Century?

last year I was coming out of a store and a guy came in riding an electric chair. I asked him how much does he get on a recharge and he said about 3 hours. It was quick, didn't take up much room, folded up, etc. I think he also said it didn't cost much. I looked them up on ebay and they are really not all that expensive. What I really liked about it, however, is that it wasn't as big as a full blowed wheel chair or electric wheel chair. there is also the marketplace in facebook where I have noted them for sale and close to where I live. If you are next to a population center there will be a lot of them around you.

If you go that route, in ebay, make sure there are no shipping charges, if you don't you REALLY have to watch out for those as some will seriously overcharge on freight.

(such has been tempting me for quite a while now)

I'd check for used scooters from local vendors. They won't have business going on right now and a number have small ones that break down handily. Wife has had one for 6 years now. Batteries need replacement every 18 months or so, though. Hers goes 9 hours or more on a charge. Be wary online, though. My wife got scammed.

That's why I prefer ebay or facebook marketplace. Both are pretty good and you can see what you get. I like ebay because the sellers are all rated based on those who have done business with them. If somebody has several thousand transactions, and has a 99% good reviews I feel pretty safe. The facebook thing is good because they will list stuff close to you.

Anyway.............

And I think most will be. Certainly everybody who gets social security is supposed to be using direct deposit and they say the checks will use that SS data. Besides, the checks will probably come at about the peak of the Covid-19 infection. Going to the bank and standing in line should be avoided!

Lots of different death rates for different countries have been published, but most are crap: They compare deaths to confirmed cases, but the number of real cases is generally unknown. The very best info we have right now is from South Korea where they have tested a lot and are well past their peak. Their death rate is 1.5%.

If we could flatten the curve and keep medical resources available, we could have 1.5%. About 5% of patients need ventilators. If we run out, the overflow death rate jumps to 5%. 15% need ICU space. If we run out of ICU beds, that overflow rate jumps to 15%. Of course, just having ventilators is not enough. We need qualified respiratory therapists, ICU nurses, and anesthesiologists to supervise them. We need syringe pumps to keep feeding the patients drugs. We need those drugs! And we need medical workers who are not quarantined with the virus.

Getting another million ventilators from GM in June misses the huge peak in April.

The models are grim, but based on the best numbers available. Americans are not very good at taking orders, so I think the models are correct. Trump gets his wish: We get it over with quickly, but millions die. Trump will be known as the Holocaust President. ICU workers who survive are going to be in therapy for PTSD for years.

I think I mentioned that I have been doing my own calculations. I use a combination of Johns Hopkins and Worldometer for most of my data. I didn't bring my programmable calculator (if I can even remember the proper formulae) when I went into isolation, so I am putting it all on a spreadsheet. I then compare my calculations and projections against the forecasting model used by the University of Washington and their website.

The best model I have seen actually uses the death numbers to feed back into things like R0 and the real number of infected. We know the death numbers for many days, and we can make the assumption the death rate is fairly constant. The most important thing we get out of the models is that R0 (the number of people an average victim infects) is partly set by the transmissability of the virus but also by our behavior. We can knock that down to zero if we actually decide to all do that. But that is not usual human behavior and especially not American behavior. There are still people claiming this is a hoax, a Democratic plot against Trump, quarantines a violation of our constitutional rights, etc.

I was please to read that a prominent preacher in Virginia who claimed the virus was a hoax was one of the first people in the state to die from it. Very fitting. Sometimes your greatest purpose in life is to serve as a bad example for others.

I'd be careful with those scooters. Don't get addicted too quick. If you can still get around with a walker, do it just to keep the ability to stand. My mom had both broken hips replaced and she never made the effort to get back on her feet. Got a motorized wheelchair and never walked again. Now she can't stand up so the health workers have to pick her up to do chair transfers and such. She also slides right out of her motorized recliner now and then.

I don't really need a power chair, there's nothing wrong with me from the hips up. What I'm after is a custom fitted lightweight manual chair. This is the one I've got my eye on...

It weighs about 12 pounds, the frame is rigid and doesn't fold up but I'll be able to toss it in the back of my SUV and go anywhere. It's made of titanium and costs as much as my hearing aids. But as I understand it Medicare will pay 80%. I'll be moving into town soon, to the neighborhood where I grew up. It's wheelchair friendly because there's a school nearby so I'll be able to roam around historic downtown Clermont. Several restaurants and a brew pub nearby. I think it'll be fun.

I have done a number of lengthy posts on that other site (and fought a lot of idiots over them), and I may bring some of those posts here (if I can). My main takeaways are these:
1) The confirmed cases and fatalities are progressing at roughly the same rate, which indicates that there is a correlation (even though I think there is a substantial undiagnosed population) between them. I think that is because the confirmed cases are probably mostly symptomatic, if not hospitalized.
2) The progression rate seems to be consistent at about a 25% daily growth rate (*1.25), although daily counts can vary significantly. My projections line up with actual experience about every 3 days.
3) The fatality rate in the United States seems to be between 1.7 and 1.8% to date. That may change if hospital resources get overwhelmed, which seems likely.
4) In the absence of significant deviation from the current experience, we will probably exceed China's fatality experience by tomorrow, and Spain's by next weekend. My projections to date indicate we'll have between 160,000 to 250,000 fatalities. Very sobering.

Gives me faith that there may, indeed, be a god, and they have a sense of humor.