Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I'm not sure if I can say that you are definitely right, but, I don't think you're wrong when it comes to Kloubachar. If I had to lay money, it'd be on her as the wisest choice.

I do think that, in a country dealing with a crises (and likely still dealing with its effects come November) that Abrams may be a weaker candidate than you depict - people tend to lean towards experience in higher-risk scenarios.

I'm a numbers guy. Abrams is a good fit if Biden is trying to win Georgia. Deny Georgia to Trump. It could work, but the percentages is against it. Perhaps a 40% chance of success.

Klobuchar guarantees Minnesota stays blue, probably helps in Wisconsin and a bit in Michigan. She's a midwesterner with experience which you point out. She could also campaign a lot in Ohio as she would easier relate there than Biden, at least I think so. Her and Sherod Brown could hit the circuit.

Now numbers wise, Masto might be the best choice. Keep Nevada blue, bring out a huge Hispanic vote in Arizona, deliver Arizona and make a positive influence in Texas. Surprisingly, Biden trails Trump by just 2 points in Texas today. Masto could make the difference there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html

I'm more or less in agreement on Abrams as she can't guarantee Georgia. Klobuchar or Masto would be the better fits.

I found this quite interesting.

Vote for Biden? Sanders Supporters Say It's 'Up in the Air'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vote-biden-sanders-supporters-air-153759766.html

As a numbers guy, not really ideological, I'm fascinated about this group of progressives, Sanders supporters. It's hard to put a percentage on what percent of the democratic party these folks make up. Looking at the available numbers to include primary votes and other polls which do break down ideology, I'd say progressives make up somewhere from a quarter to a third of the Democratic Party. Yet they seem to think they who make up a quarter to a third should have the say in who the democrats nominate and exactly what the democratic party's ideology should be without regard to the other 2/3rds to 3/4ths.

I've never been an ideologue, so a lot of this leaves me scratching my head. This isn't to say I don't respect who Sanders supporters will vote for or if they choose not to vote at all. That's their decision and we all have our own reason why we vote the way we do or don't vote at all. Reasons that make perfect sense to them even though others may look on their reasons as being asinine.

I'll add this which may help to explain it. Looking at the exit polls from the primaries it's easy to see Sanders received the big majority of independents who voted in the Democratic primaries. Biden had the support of a huge majority of those who identified themselves as Democrats. Sanders labels himself a independent, not a democrat. So even if I was a left leaning independent, a independent that leans toward the Democratic Party, I wouldn't have the loyalty to the democratic party that those who affiliate or identify themselves as Democrats. Even thought I lean toward the democrats, my vote is still up for grabs. Although I will choose to vote democratic 3 out of 4 times. Historical average. I'm not a party faithful or loyalist which votes for the democratic party's candidates 90% plus of the time regardless of who that candidate is.

To lump all Sanders supporters as Democrats is wrong. I'd say at least half or perhaps a bit more are independents, not party loyalist. the polls, exit polls, favorable/unfavorable polls, even head to head matchup's show this.

The fact that Independents who supported Sanders would prefer Trump to Biden tells me they have no understanding of policies. All they care about is an Impressive Man on a Big White Horse. I guess Sanders or Trump could be that for some folks. Biden is not that, but he would pursue much more progressive policies than Trump. Much more like Sanders' policies.

So, what percentage of Independents care about policies, versus what percentage like "reality shows" and WWE Wrestling?

Independents who supported Sanders and want to "pick Trump in a fit of pique" are generally people who have fits of pique quite often about almost anything and everything.
Pique defines their approach to most things in life.
Fits of pique are a luxury that is most often associated with excess wealth and security, at least on a relative scale.

And if one leads that kind of life, one is indeed very lucky.
Until their luck runs out.

For a lot of independents, the presidential election is a beauty contest. Most independents don't pay any attention to the day to day political grind going on in Washington D.C. At least half of independents make up their minds within a month of the election who they will vote for. Most are too busy with their daily lives, making ends meet, rooting for their favorite sports team, watching their favorite show on TV, a million other things much more important to them than politics.

That's more or less a very short over view. Now Sanders supporters are different than your average independent or swing voter. They owe their loyalty to the man, the individual and not to any political party. You seen this in 2016, the democratic base voted for Hillary 88-8 over Trump with 3% voting third party. Sanders supporters voted 75-12 Hillary over Trump but with an amazing 13% voting third party. Who knows how many stayed home and didn't vote. Their politics centered around one man, not the nation, not a political party, they wanted one man and only one man, without him nothing else mattered.

My grand daughter who was going to Kennesaw State back in 2016 was an avid Sanders supporter. When he didn't get the nomination, she refused to vote. The way she put it, she couldn't support the racist Trump nor could she support Wall Street Hillary. She stayed home. For her and for many Sanders supporters it was Sanders or no one.

I imagine it's the same today, this election cycles from what I've been reading. That Biden probably will get around the same 75% of Sanders supporters who will vote, a bunch will stay home ala 2016. That Biden will get 90-91% of the democratic base vote, more than Hillary.

Now independents are pretty much split between Trump and Biden. At least according to the polls. It's still very early with what I would say only 40% or so of independents have their minds set on who they will vote for today. The rest are still up for grabs.This in contrast to the party faithful which 90% plus of each party know exactly who they'll vote for.

You don't have to imagine. Query your granddaughter and ask if she intends to do the same this time around. At least you will know if one person's principles have been shattered enough by the Horror of Trump to change her mind.

I say "principles" because Trump has shattered mine so thoroughly that I cannot even begin to imagine handing him a victory.

No, she's out of college, got a job, married, has a daughter and has lost all interest in politics. It was probably peer pressure at college that made her a Sanders supporter.That was the in thing or the fad back then.

It's easy to embrace socialism when you lead a socialist life. When you enter the capitalist society it gets beaten out of you. The struggle is just to survive as the machine spins around you, the only revolution you have time for is doing your job as a cog in the machine, spinning and spinning endlessly.

If only there was some way to reliably save a portion of your income over time and become financially independent

Good friend of mine is getting his financial life back on track right now - mostly thanks to some information, but with a nice boost from an inheritance from his grandfather. Old boy was a lawn mower repairman, came from the back swamps, died with a little over $3 million that he left to all the causes, kids, grand kids, etc. Nobody knew till he died because (shrug) why should they?

All the "It Can't Be Done" and "You're Just Trapped In The Rat Race" is baloney. Here in this country, generally, we are the ones who trap ourselves.


I'm a single-income millennial family, and I approved this message