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It's the Despair Quotient!
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Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
That's what I thought until I saw the video about the polybasic furin cleavage site PRRA somehow getting into the Sars-COV2 gene sequence. The facts that this kind of enhanced ability to jump into humans was exactly what they were seeking at the Wuhan lab, and that inserting that sequence for that reason has been reported in several journal papers over the last few years, is just to much of a coincidence.

Virologists are claiming we don't have the ability, when we clearly do, and claiming accidents never happen when they clearly do, makes me fairly suspicious.

Question:
Why WOULDN'T the world want to know the why and how when it comes to gain of function studies on zoonotic virii transmission to humans? Whether we do the research ourselves, or the Chinese do it, or they do it with our help, or without, research like that IS going to be done, somewhere, by someone anyway.


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Originally Posted by pondering_it_all
I agree that giving HCQ to a very sick patient is a very bad idea, because his heart is already going to be in bad shape. But the protocol that would be useful, would be to give it to him long before he had any such bad effects. If it does work, he would never get to that stage. The stage in which it might work, would be from first symptom to hospitalization. This is what some doctors are calling stage 2: When they would normally send patients home and tell them to come back if they have shortness of breath.

I've looked at an analysis of the VA study, and it appears to be completely useless: The HCQ arm of the study was only the sickest patients, while the no-HCQ arm was patients who did not get that sick. Of course it looked like HCQ did harm: When you just give an antiviral drug to the sickest patients it has no effect, but they were the high-fatality patients, drug or no drug! I doubt you can get valid patients-to-treat or patient-to-harm numbers from that mess.

It has not at all been proven that HCQ works even in mild/initial cases.

Again, while I didn't read the VA study, I read a report that the disadvantage of the treated arm remains, after you apply adjustments to the severity degree.

What I said about number-to-treat and number-to-harm came from other studies that I did read, not the VA study.

I need to read the VA study at some point to form an opinion, because what I'm saying is hearsay so you may be right.


Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.
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Originally Posted by rporter314
Quote
Do yo have a link to the 5.7 estimate?
Coronavirus outbreak likely to go on for two years, scientists predict a news article but relevant source
Originally Posted by from previous citation
Covid-19′s R0 has been estimated between 1.4 and 5.7 in various studies — but CIDRAP noted a rating was difficult to establish due to variations in identifying and testing infected people between regions.

here is something more to the point
What Is R0? Gauging Contagious Infections
Originally Posted by from above citation
The R0 for COVID-19 is a median of 5.7, according to a study published online in Emerging Infectious Diseases. That’s about double an earlier R0 estimate of 2.2 to 2.7

both articles contain links to other source materials.

Thanks. Today I saw an article (lay press, not a scientific paper) saying that the virus has already mutated and the new strain is the one with the high R0. Whether this is true or not I don't know because I didn't explore the source, and again, it was a lay press article and the lay press often misinterprets scientific papers.

Last edited by GreatNewsTonight; 05/06/20 04:48 AM.

Please take COVID-19 seriously; don't panic but don't deny it; practice social distancing (stay 6ft from people); wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, don't gather with too many people, so that you help us contain it.
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Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Finally, I am excited about the remdesivir results. It will probably only be a stop-gap until a better, more specific anti-viral is developed.

I am experiencing a mixture of hopefulness and despair, hopefulness because Remdesivir might be promising, and despair because it may turn out that CV19 is just the first in a large FAMILY of new virii, each of which want to take a whack at the human race.

Maybe Mother Earth has decided she's had enough of us and this is just the first hit, with a fusillade of hits to come.

The SARS family of coronavirii are not new, but it's possible that this is the shining moment where SARS decided it likes us too much to just let us go.
I, too, experience this cycle of hope and despair. And anger. I am mightily angry that the current circumstance has come to pass because of endemic short-sightedness. We've known the risk of a SARS-related pandemic for decades - DECADES - and steps were initially taken to mitigate the potential catastrophe we are experiencing.

After the H1N1 epidemic of 2009, which WAS so contained, our national leadership (read: Republicans) simply lost the thread. The budget was slashed, requiring Hobson's choices for the Obama Administration about what to restock in the National Stockpile - unfortunately making some of the wrong choices. But those understandable choices were exacerbated by the completely insane choices of the current administration. Disbanding the Pandemic Response Team, demoting experts that issued warnings about the potential catastrophe that was looming (sounds like China's response, actually), stubbornly refusing to take steps to mitigate the impact - with warnings, restocking, or planning, and pushing the response to the State and local level - for a NATIONAL epidemic. That is inexcusable. Until the leadership is reorganized (removed), I fear the worst.

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because of the novelty of this virus the research will be fast and furious and until we get a chance to catch our breathe, the results of research will be all over the place.


ignorance is the enemy
without equality there is no liberty
Save America - Lock Trump Up!!!!

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Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
What I am fed up with is the fact that alcohol, simple alcohol, is now unobtanium. I will not pay 20 bucks for a liter of isopropyl, I refuse on principle.
So I am about to embark on trying to make my own ethanol.
If your State allows it, find 190 proof Everclear. It has been more available than most other sources. Ethanol is actually more effective for viruses than isopropyl. At 190 proof, it can even be slightly diluted and still be effective.

We were pretty well-stocked before this event - except with Kleenex - because my wife has a longstanding condition that requires high levels of cleanliness and disinfection, but our supply of hand sanitizer and gloves is dwindling.

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Originally Posted by NW Ponderer
Originally Posted by Jeffery J. Haas
What I am fed up with is the fact that alcohol, simple alcohol, is now unobtanium. I will not pay 20 bucks for a liter of isopropyl, I refuse on principle.
So I am about to embark on trying to make my own ethanol.
If your State allows it, find 190 proof Everclear. It has been more available than most other sources. Ethanol is actually more effective for viruses than isopropyl. At 190 proof, it can even be slightly diluted and still be effective.

We were pretty well-stocked before this event - except with Kleenex - because my wife has a longstanding condition that requires high levels of cleanliness and disinfection, but our supply of hand sanitizer and gloves is dwindling.

Not just stock but PRICE!
We can get the Everclear and we may just go ahead and get it but I think the price is now at the point where it's a lot cheaper for me to just brew my own, seeing as I don't intend to drink it.

I think I'll try to see if local liquor stores have it cheaper, but I hate going out right now.


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"Today I saw an article (lay press, not a scientific paper) saying that the virus has already mutated and the new strain is the one with the high R0."

Yes, virus mutate quickly, COVID-19 splint into two strains the Asian and the European (my terms). The European strain is what hit the US east coast and the Asian hit the west coast. There is some concern the European strain may not be affected by the current drugs undergoing testing and it also may be unaffected by the vaccine.

More than you'll ever want to know about COVID - Coronavirus COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) report from Johns Hopkins.

Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact, BBC Health News.

So everything could change at the next outbreak, Oh JOY devil eek2 confused




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Six local liquor stores, and all of them have been sold out of Everclear since the pandemic hit.


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You can substitute those Rubber Maid kitchen gloves and they can take an Everclear bath, or wash them on your hands in HOT water and soap.

As always, my posts are my opinion.

Last edited by Ujest Shurly; 05/06/20 06:48 PM.

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