Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I think the filibuster is a goner also. That will let the Democrats who should control not only the presidency, but the House and Senate to pass whatever legislation they want. The key words, phrase is they want.

They'll over do it letting the GOP win back the House in 2022. We're in for a wild ride from now forward. Extreme lurches left, followed by extreme lurches right when most Americans are searching for a happy medium. The middle way.

Neither party offers that. This is why we seen the rise in independents from 30% of the electorate in 2006 to 40% in 2020. This is why both major parties are shrinking, The Democrats from 38% in 2006 down to 31% today while the GOP has shrunk from 31% down to 27%.

56% of all Americans have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party only to be outdone by 61% having an unfavorable view of the GOP. The average American don't like either one. But for 2020, the Democratic Party is the lesser of the disliked parties, thus they'll probably win big. In 2022 as the Democrats pass their agenda, not Americas, they'll become the most disliked party and thus my prediction, the GOP retakes the House.

So you think uber centrist Joe Biden is gonna suddenly become a socialist and seize the means of production? He doesn't even want M4A!
Maybe we should avoid all that swingy right left stuff and just let Trump be president for life?

Again, please describe what you are afraid Democrats will do, and what this extreme leftist swing is gonna look like?

Donald Trump is describing today's Democratic Party as the "far left" and it sounds like you agree with him.

Democrats are the middle ground that Americans are searching for.

I am part of the far left. And brother let me tell ya...I aint no democrat.

I don't know what they'll do. I like Biden and always have from him being a senator to VP. What attracts me to Joe is as a senator he was always willing to work across the aisle, to come up with compromises when possible. It wasn't always possible, but at least he tried. It was Biden working with McConnell that came up with the deal to end the government shutdown over the debt ceiling I believe it was.

My point is when one party controls all three, the presidency, the house, the senate especially with the filibuster about to be gone, they'll over reach. On what, I don't know. But you watch, they'll make this fast growing group of voters, independents angry at them. It almost, I said almost always happens. It has since 1994 wen we crossed a threshold of some type.

That was when the Democrats hold on the house, they're control of it was stopped at 40 straight years and 58 out of the last 62 going back to the 1932 election. By the 90's, both parties had shed their unwanted wings of southern conservatives and Rockefeller liberal Republicans of the northeast. Then each began the process of getting rid of their moderates. For the Democrats, it was the blue dogs. Biden is probably one of a very few moderates left.

I suppose for someone on the far left, the Democrats do look like a moderate party the same as for someone on the very far right thinks the GOP is a moderate party. But what about those in the middle? Not far left nor far right, for them it looks like both major parties have lost their senses as both continue to move further left and further right with just the hard core being left in each party.

That's a good point. I see politics through a Marxist lens. A game being played out exactly as Marx predicts. And as frustrating as Lenin learned. In that theater Stalin was their Trump. The Wiemar's had their Hitler. Some guy always comes along to f*ck things up.

But I'm also a realist...we got Joe Biden we gotta work with Joe Biden.

He literally might be the best guy for the job at this time in history.
Someone to tone down the rhetoric and put things back together.

He just might be. Right now I think we're, at least those of us somewhere in the middle, in-between where the two major parties are politically these days, we want a return to saner times, a return to normalcy. Just get this schoolyard bully with his childish antics and behavior out of the White House.

Joe Biden seems to be the only adult in the room. The best hope. At this time in 2016 we had 15% of the electorate choosing or saying they would vote third party in November. That number is down to 4% today. In other words a lot of those third party voters in 2016 have come in on the side of Biden raising his lead from 5 points up to 9 points over the last three weeks. Trump's perceived ineptness on handling the CoronaVirus along with his distasteful personality have moved those out of the third party column into Biden's. The only adult who seems better equipped to handle the situation.

It's not that Republicans are deserting Trump, at least not yet. 91% say they'll vote for Trump. 88% did so back in 2016. It's those who voted third party angry as all get out at the choices provided in 2016 by both major parties, they have decided to enter back into the fray and or choose a horse in the race this time. Not to vent their frustrations and anger at who the two major parties choose. We're talking some 9 million voters, no small group.

They're motto, ADULT 2020.

Three interesting comparisons, mid March to mid July on Trump.

Overall job approval, mid March 47.4% approve, mid July 41.4% approval

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Trump's approval of his handling of the CoronaVirus, March 50.6%, July 39.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ps_handling_of_the_coronavirus-7088.html

Head to head matchup, mid March Biden 50.7% Trump 44.3%, Mid July Biden 49.4%, Trump 40.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

Trump's numbers or approval over all has dropped 6 points, his handling of the Virus dropped 11 points while those planning on voting for him in November dropped 3 points along with Trump falling from 6 points behind Biden to a deficit of 9 points.

All positive numbers for Biden and the Democrats. But what goes unnoticed is those planning to vote for Biden in November has also dropped a point and a half. Which means around 5% of those who had decided to vote for either candidate back in March now have moved into the undecided column. Not unusual, as folks reconsider who they'll vote for all the time. But it is interesting that the undecided's have grown from 6% in March up to a bit over 10% in July.

Having 10% of the electorate or even a bit more in the undecided column prior to the start of the official campaign season on 1 Sep is normal. Having only 6% was unusually low for March. The undecided's will usually begin coming off the fence sometime in October. So what this tells me, 2020 will be more of a normal election than 2016. 2016 was very unique with no historical precedence.

For Biden and the democrats, normal is good. As normal as we can get with the CoronaVirus hanging over our heads.

Sorry. Too many, seemingly endless, still shots of that smug, arrogant, supercilious orange-tinted mug. I couldn’t make it all the way through. Music was pretty good though.

November will be the perfect storm for Trump. We will either have more lockdowns or WAY more dead. Probably a mix of both. And the most dead will be in states that are Republican strongholds, because they resist the public health measures that save lives, the most. No vaccines will be available yet, or will be highly restricted to select groups. That's going to cause a lot of friction.

So this will be anything but a "normal election". Trump announcing he might not cooperate with orderly succession is not going to help him, either. I don't know how many Independents favor lifetime dictatorship, but it can't be many.

We'll have to check-in with perotista on that one.