Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

Ah, classic Irked. I was getting worried about you there.

If all renters get evicted, and all those with mortgaged houses lose them, there are are going to be, for sure, blood on the streets. The other problem is that there are those, who are not exactly desirable, that will see this as a genuine opportunity to gather money and power. That's the one, I think, that REALLY scares the crap out of me.

It will, of course, also be a time of property opportunities, just as happened in 2008 - but much worse. Think on it. We can all tell stories about the existing homeless, now add, literally, millions. Around where I live most murders happen in the woods. We have lots of people living in the woods, isolated and happy - until invaded and murdered. There are a LOT of great big houses, in the hills, easily seen from below and they are also isolated. Not a real good place to be I fear, not with millions of the pissed off at them with the big bucks.

At the very least I would suggest that the National parks open their campgrounds to the homeless so, at least, they can find some place to plant their tents. If they were to do that it would reduce the pressure from the homeless. If they did that they would also have to provide some kind of security, especially from the homeless that are also predators (there seems to be a lot of those).

Right now the national parks are reserved for those with the money to get in and, then have the money to pay to camp in the campgrounds as well. Basically, right now, the national parks are NOT for them without (which I think is wrong). If you don't have a pass it will cost you 50 bucks to get in and if you want to camp that will be another 25 bucks. Not much, unless you don't have much.

On second that my idea about homeless camping in the park is a really bad idea. I am basing this having seen some of their existing encampments. From the looks of it one has the impression that they are determined to create and live in squalor making absolutely no effort to change it even when provided with a way to deal with their garbage.

I think the homeless camps you have been seeing are not the same people who would get evicted. They are the mentally ill, the drug addicts, the alcoholics. etc. In other words the people who should actually be institutionalized. To get an idea of the new homeless, I would look at most single-wide trailer parks. People who can function, but are just poor.

I wouldn't put too much stock in one poll when you have RCP averages.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html

The undecided is a lot closer to 10%, perhaps a bit above so far. What RCP averages and Emerson doesn't do is to provide third party voters.

Going inside and averaging everything out, Biden 49%, Trump 42%, other or third party voters 4%, undecided or not sure 5%. From January until today, Biden has been between 47-51%, Trump from 40-44%. Compare that to 2016 when Hillary was between 40-44%, Trump from 36-40%.

In 2016 the third party/undecided from January through July averaged between 18-22%, 2020 7-11%.

The bottom line is in 2020 Trump must convince some Biden supporters to jump his ship and board Trump's train. There isn't that huge pool of 20% or so undecided/third party voters to pull from. In 2016, Trump didn't need to convince one Hillary voter to come over to his side.

Trump can’t afford to lose even 3 percent or 4 percent of the Republican base or he’ll go down this fall - but Trump already has.

He’s asked Russia.
He’s asked Ukraine.
He’s asked China.

Trump can only win if he cheats.

Just watched President Obama's eulogy for Rep. John Lewis. Holy crap: That man can deliver a speech! The contrast with Trump is just stunning. Every sentence on target. Every phrase coherent. Every pause, perfectly timed. He gives his audience time between phrases for them to think about what he just said.

Then reading the comments on the YouTube version made me sad that some people can't recognize greatness when they see it. Some were criticizing Obama for "turning a eulogy into a campaign speech", completely ignoring that everything Obama spoke about was an integral part of John Lewis' life work. And the fact that Obama is not running for anything!

Donald Trump stands in the shadow of Barack Obama's greatness. THAT is why Donald Trump loathes Barack Obama.

Trump is getting the same percentage of Republican voters as he received back in 2016. 88% according to the polls with the trial heats between Biden and Trump. Hillary received 8% of the Republican vote in 2016, Biden is averaging 6% so far. So it's not Republicans that are or have deserted him. 90% is the historical average for a presidential candidate percentage of his party's votes in any one election.

Trump's loss so far is among independents, in 2016 Trump received 46% of their vote vs. 42% for Hillary. 12% voted against both major party candidates. Trump is averaging 40% as of today among independents. To round this out, Trump received 8% of the Democratic vote in 2016, he's getting 4% today.

This explains where thing stands today, but where they stand in November, who knows?