Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

I wasn't homeschooled as most of you Righties are, but 75 + 75 = 150. That's over 100 according to my public education.

You're reading it wrong.

There are 3 groups of independents, Republican leaning, Democrat leaning, and unaffiliated. Of the Republican leaning group 75% will vote for Mr Trump. Of the Democrat leaning 75% of those will vote for VP Biden.

That's a nice hypothetic, but doesn't mean much unless you know what 100% of independent-Republican/Democrat numbers are.

Not really: Perotista's premise is that Independents could go 50% for Biden and 50% for Trump, and Biden would win because there are more Democrats than Republicans. Trump has to win more than half the Independents to win the election.

The largest group are those that don’t vote. Be they Dem, Repub or Indie. One wonders how much less participation will happen before it’s clear to everyone that this is ritual farce dressed up as democracy. At some point we resemble late stage imperial Rome with a couple dozen patrician families taking turns at controlling the state. You could make the case that we are already there.
I’d argue your simple formula has no context either. How would it explain Iowa in the primaries? Nor does it illustrate the suppressive effects of denying a winner coming out of that contest in terms of a bump in polling and media attention. Likewise, simple polling doesn’t give you a clue to what effect the widespread voter suppression efforts, that both political factions are employing, will have in the outcome of the vote totals.

I guess it has the benefit of being a simple way to predict which runt majority may win. Doesn’t say much about how.

Side note from the outside world.
Looks like MAS took the Bolivian election with large majorities over the U.S. backed coup government.
Pity the people ofBolivia for not choosing the right party. Having rich mineral deposits under their feet is just waving a red flag at a fascist bull. U.S. military intelligence will be cranking up on them soon if history is a guide.
Who knows though. The U.S. Deep state has not been putting up the numbers like they used to and the Bolivian election may stick. More so under a possible future Trump administration than a Biden, IMO.

Okay, didn't follow me huh? What I said and if not meant which confused you which at times saying and meaning are two different things is 75% of independents who lean Democratic will vote for Biden, 75% of independents who lean republican will vote for Trump, pure and true independents are very hard to figure or predict.

Using Gallup's latest figures, Independents who lean Democrat make up 47% of independents as of 28 Sep which approximately 75% will vote for Biden based on historical norms. Independents who lean Republican make up 40% of independents which around 75% will vote for Trump, again based on an historical average. That leaves 13% of independents I classify as true or pure independents with no leans. There is no historical standard to go by with these purist or no lean independents. They vary and swing radically for no apparent reason.

FYI, according to the 28 Sep Gallup figures, independents now make up 42% of the electorate as both major parties affiliation has fallen below 30% That means Republicans are below 30% at 27% of the electorate and democrats are below 40% at 29%.

That's quite a fall for the Democrats. The Republicans have averaged 27% of the electorate since IKE. Being as low as 21% and as high as 31%. The Democrats dropped from an average of 45% of the electorate, Truman until Reagan, then 35% from Reagan until Obama and now for the first time have dropped below 30%. The Democrats high was 51% in both 1961 and 1965. They low 29%, today.

Another reason why I think Biden will be a easy winner. I was one who rejected both Trump and Clinton and have already voted for Biden.

"Why These Voters Rejected Hillary Clinton but Are Backing Joe Biden"

https://news.yahoo.com/why-voters-rejected-hillary-clinton-172223473.html

"Interviews with dozens of voters, union members and Democratic strategists reveal a party embracing Biden — a 77-year-old white man — as a familiar political pitch, though some bristled at what they saw as the gender bias in that assessment."

What a hard nosed, clear eyed burrowing into the "numbers"...

Insiders talking to one another while avoiding reality. Then this gem-

"Internal polling conducted for the Bernie Sanders campaign found that Biden had a reservoir of goodwill that Clinton did not possess.

“He was a hard guy to hit,” said Ben Tulchin, Sanders’ pollster. “There’s not a lot of passion for him, but they like him.”

Anyone associated with Our Revolution was screaming at Sanders to attack Biden on his literal record. Sanders demurred and the rank and file had to brace for impact.

A good deal wanted the neoliberal Faiz Shakir gone and get into the brawl with Biden that never came. What can you say. Sanders didn't have it in him. But 'Hard to Hit'..

That's pure propaganda.

Racist crime bill resulting in mass incarceration of minorities and exploding the prison population beyond any other country in %'s.

Bankruptcy laws denying citizenry the ability to go bankrupt and dismiss debt.

Backing reactionary conservative judges.

Backing republican congressional candidates over Democrats as recent as 2018.

Corruption and bribery as it pertains to his families dealings with foreign governments. (that one's bobbed to the surface again)

Voting to invade Iraq.

His VP's picks only debate highlight was when she went after him with her 'little girl' moment of Identity Politics.

Can't hit Biden?
The reality distortion field is strong whereas the will to go after him was weak. 'Why?' would be interesting to figure out.

What could possibly be backing him from the drive thru state of Delaware?