Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Is it too soon to be talking 2020?

We have court ordered gerrymandering in Georgia. Majority Minority Districts. Georgia is approximately 35% black. Around Atlanta, around 50% or more in some counties. Around Augusta and Columbus is also heavily populated by blacks. So most blacks go into 5 districts where the black congressman wins with 60-80% of the vote if the Republicans run someone, a lot of times they don't bother. So we almost always end up with 9 GOP congressmen and 5 Democratic.

Democrats win their districts 75-25 or higher, Republicans their districts 55-45. After 2010 census, the courts ordered the original redistricting map redrawn because not enough minorities were included in the majority minority districts. I live in a county south of Atlanta divided into 4 congressional districts. We have a population of probably around 50-60,000. The northern 2/3rds of the country were divided into 3 different majority minority districts. Although where I live is probably mixed 40-40 black and white with 20% Asian. The bottom third, mostly white was placed in a Republican district. All done by the courts which made our state legislature redraw them 4 or 5 times until enough minorities were squeezed into their 5 majority minority districts.

Georgia has the third highest black population of any state at around 35%. Which by the way, comes out to the exact percentage of black congressmen we have, 5. That's exactly what the courts wanted. Which makes Republicans happy as that leaves the remaining 9 pretty much a sure thing for the Republicans. Georgia is just one of several southern states that the courts have to approve the drawing of their districts. So party gerrymandering is pretty much out of the question.

There is around 35 of these types of districts where blacks are in the majority. They guarantee each of those districts will go Democratic. Basically leaving 400 for the Republicans to contest. But in those remaining 400, the Republicans have a slight advantage since black democratic voters are packed into those 35 majority minority districts. Black democrats hold everyone of those 35 districts.

Now Hispanics have 30 majority minority districts nationwide, 23 held by democrats, 7 by republicans. This is as of the 2018 election, I haven't delved into this for the 2020 house election yet as their still counting in 8 districts.

To round this out, Asians have two majority minority districts where they make up over 50% of the voters, Hawaii and California. Hawaii 1st district is 59% Asian, Hawaii's 2nd district is 37%. So only Hawaii 1st qualifies as majority minority. California's 17th district is the majority minority Asian districts with just 50%.

Latest update on the house elections and state legislatures.

The Republicans have a net gain of 9 seats so far with 5 still to be decided. Republicans flipped 12 Democratic seats. The Democrats flipped 3 Republican seats. Last election. 236 Democrats, 199 Republican. Current count, 222 Democrat, 208 Republican 5 still to be determined.

State legislature, democrats lost 2. Republicans now control 29 state legislatures to 18 for the Democrats. Alaska’s senate is still to be determined. Minnesota is divided while Nebraska has a unicameral legislature. States with trifectas, one party having the governorship and control of both state legislature and state senate, 21 Republican, 16 Democratic.

It's a yes and no.

Someone or some group hiding in the shadows is working hard to ensure for the long term, the judiciary will remain or try to convert to hard right ideologies, thus effectively blocking any effort to actually help people or provide services. Every time the Democrats pass a bill to help people. the right wing will file a suit and present before a hard right court which will overturn the law, ensuring people will know their place.


Listen to Sen Romney talk about working with Democrats except on all major political initiatives. Based on that and Sen McConnell's obstructionist strategy, I predict PE Biden will not pass any substantive legislation.

Probably not, but that's how the voters voted. We are a nominally democratic republic, so if the voters do not want a party to pass substantive legislation, you get divided government. We had undivided government from 2016 to 2018, and that sucked from the minority's perspective.

What was accomplished legislative during the united government? The tax cuts, I can't think of anything else. Obama had united government from 2009-10, he did the ACA and that was about it.

This election looking over it from top to bottom was to get rid of Trump, but not an endorsement of Democratic policies or a rejection of Republican ideals. If this election was more than getting rid of Trump and endorsing the Democratic Party, giving them a mandate for substantial change, the Democrats would have picked up 10 or more seats in the house as expected. They would have easily won the senate, projected for a 4-8 seat pickup, won a few state legislatures instead of losing two, gain a couple of governorship's instead of losing one.

I think the results prove what I've been saying all along. They wanted a return to sanity, a return to normalcy at the presidential level. Substantial change can wait for another day or another election once things return to normalcy.

Once you venture into Bizzaro World it takes more than one(fiercely contested) election and clicking your heels together to get you back home. Joe Biden and his crew of corporate crooks are only normal in the neoliberalism is normalcy school of thought.

To a lot of swing voters, apparently ticket splitters also. Biden looked and gives the impression of being the adult in the room or in this election vs. the man-child with his name calling and temper tantrums.

I think when it comes down to elections, sometimes known as beauty contest to these swing voters or as some call them independents. It's their perspectives of the candidate that counts. Not so much policy or stances on certain issues. Swing voters usually aren't political junkies. They don't pay much attention if any to the daily grind of politics in Washington D.C. Most of the hot issues, they don't care much about unless those issue affect them personally.

Many don't give politics one thought until a few weeks ahead of the election. That is unless what is happening effects them. Many are more interested in who won that Sunday's football games or who's left on survivor than who is president.

I really don't think many actually vote on the issues. Most Republicans vote for the R, most Democrats for the D, what their candidates stand for or stances on the issues is irrelevant as long as the R or D is behind their name. This time with swing voters, I think it was more of Biden behaving as an adult or grownup that persuaded them to vote for him of the childish antics of Trump.

Their perspective, Biden adult, Trump man-child, schoolyard bully. Result, Biden wins swing voters, independents 54-41 with 5% voting third party.

I don't agree with all of this. But it spells out the disappointment of the down ballot offices rather nicely.

How Democrats Suffered Crushing Down-Ballot Losses Across America

https://news.yahoo.com/democrats-suffered-crushing-down-ballot-151200736.html