Capitol Hill Blue Forums Life and Moral Issues Religion and Philosophy Abortion

Everyone imagines there is some religious reason you shouldn't kill babies.

And that the younger the baby is the more okay it is to kill it.

It's just a moral thing, like eating meat or wearing leather. Do you go completely vegan or can you have milk and eggs?

I'm a very religious sort of man and I don't believe there is such a thing as a "soul" and that consciousness exists in all animals. I think you can safely lose your notions of "heaven" too.

Dead is dead.

Convince Reeps that every unborn baby is a future Democrat and they'll be calling for genetic proof of conservatism prior to birth.

It’s been a week since the leaked draft on abortion. For all the hell being raised about it, there has been no significant changes to the generic congressional ballot.

2 May 2020 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican
9 May 2020 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.4-43.2 Republican, 538 averages 45.4-42.8 Republican

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

We haven’t seen any significant movement on President’s overall job performance since the leak either.

2 May 2020 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove
9 May 2020 Biden’s overall job performance, 42.3% approve, 52.9% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

It will take another week or two before we can gauge the full impact of the leaked draft on abortion. Early indications are the draft will have minimal effect on the upcoming midterms. But it’s still early, like the first quarter results in a football game with 3 quarters left. What I think will happen is after the second and third week you’ll see movement towards to the Democrats. After the fourth week, the numbers will begin returning to where they were prior to the leaked draft. That the way these things usually play out.

You may see the same results, first movement towards the democrats for the public 1-6 hearings and again once the SCOTUS hands down their official ruling in June. Then the numbers reverting to pre-1-6 public hearings and the official SCOTUS ruling. That’s what history has shown that happens on these so-called game changing events.

Wow! A whole week!!

For the record, the ruling isn't out yet - so why get worked up over something that is not certain?

Trust me, if Roe is overturned, your slide rule will be working overtime.

There are actually a few "game changers", even before a SC ruling is made. So far we have protestors demonstrating outside some conservative justices houses, demonstrating they know where they live. We have the Senate passing a bill to give Supreme Court justices and their families extra protection. And we have an anti-abortion organization's offices being burned down and spray paint on the outside wall proclaiming: "If women aren't safe, YOU aren't safe."

Overturn a civil right that's been around for 49 years, and some people are going to get upset. A few people are going to get really upset. I wonder how many Supreme Court nominations Biden is going to get in the next six years?

---Zero if the Republicans win the mid-terms. Where have you been?

Two things this bright, beautiful AM. I pour over numbers everyday rick. That’s what I do. I let the numbers talk to me, listen to what they say and usually get what they are talking about. Some I like, some I don’t, most I’m irrelevant to. I whole heartily agree, the ruling isn’t out yet, no need to get riled up, yet. But it’s fun watching folks who do.

Pondering, I’ve seen a whole lot of protests, in front of elected official’s homes, bothering them when they go take their families to eat, even some riots that occur. In the long run, those haven’t affected how people vote, they may have even provoked some sympathy for those being protested against, definitely against the rioters. The civil rights protests worked because they were peaceful, they were peaceful marches and rallies. Then there were the actions taken against them like Bull Conner’s, dogs, water cannons, bully clubs, against the helpless all on TV. It was clear to everyone who was in the wrong, who was breaking the peace, who was causing the violence. It wasn’t those who favored civil rights, it was those against civil rights and equality. Violence was caused by those against, not for. Rosa Parks bus boycott worked because it was peaceful. No riots or violence involved by the boycotters.

BLM and Defund the police failed because folks seen them as rioters, seen them as the cause of violence in Minneapolis, Portland, Seattle and other places. They didn’t change anyone’s vote for them but caused some to vote against them. You had a president win by 7 plus million votes, you also had many of those who voted for Biden to get rid of Trump voting against Democrats who embraced BLM and Defund the police to a tune of the Democrats losing 13 house seats, a governor and 2 state legislatures down ballot. Most people don’t like violence regardless of the cause, they don’t like what seems in your face protests at an elected official home or harassing them in during lunch or dinner. This kind of activity hurts the cause they’re trying to promote especially among those who aren’t hard core ideologues one way or the other. The ideologue vote is already baked in. It’s those who are quasi for that isn’t. It’s the group that believe abortion should be legal in only the case of incest, rape or the mother’s life is in danger. I don’t think they’re about to leap on the abortion bandwagon or change how they’ll vote regardless of how the SCOTUS rules on Roe. These folks count as being for abortion, but by how much? They want abortion illegal in all other cases. This group make up 29% of all Americans. That’s almost a third of America.

You look at the total percentage who say they’re in favor of keeping Roe, 65% in some polls, higher in others, as high as 80% in one. My advice is to go deeper. 54% believe abortion should be banned after the first trimester. 29% abortion allowed only in the case of case of incest, rape and mother’s life in danger, banned or illegal in all other cases. Be careful here, it will be very easy to overplay one’s hand.

I read this AM where Schumer is going to pass a law to keep abortion legal. So how do you keep everyone happy? From legal only in the case of incest, rape and the danger to a mother’s life to abortions right up to the day of birth and all those in-between. Where will be the cut off? Will those who favor a total ban on abortion after such and such a time frame, will they oppose it because to them Schumer’s law is taking abortion too far. Just something to think about.

Republicans are only forecast to win the House by a narrow margin and to hold the Senate with a possible pick up of one or two seats. All of President Biden's nominees will be confirmed, should there be any.

I don't count on numbers for my predictions, Like you, I look at all the available information, headlines, news blips, celebrity divorces, and popular trends, then I build models in my head of the most likely possible outcomes. I used to look at the world through blue-tinted glasses, I used to think there was some deep untapped well of left leaners among non-affiliated.

When I eliminated that from the models my predictions began to fall more in line with reality..

What I give you, based on available number is if the election were held today. So far as to the leaked draft, all rants and raves with no movement on the numbers. That could change or maybe it won’t. We still have 4 states that haven’t completed their redistricting. So, the numbers are based on 395 districts, races, elections, etc. instead of 435. That translate today into a net gain of 12-15 seats for the GOP. Out of those 395 districts, 42 are competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 31 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Safe seats as of 10 May 2022, 163 Democratic, 190 Republican. But New York 26, Missouri 8, Kansas 4 and New Hampshire 2, haven’t completed their redistricting yet.

I’m positive the abortion issue nor the 1-6 hearings and the official SCOTUS decision won’t affect the safe seats. They could have an affect on the competitive, at risk seats. With 20 more at risk seats than the Republicans, the democrats better hope that they do. Time will tell on that. The senate boils down to 5 pure tossup states, Democratic held Nevada, Arizona and Georgia along with 2 Republican held states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other states are very close, New Hampshire where the Democrats should hold onto and North Carolina where the GOP should hold on to it. Chances are good of Nevada and Arizona staying in Democratic hands, Georgia is very iffy. The Democrats have a good shot at both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The likely outcome as of today, The Dems lose Georgia, but pickup Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for a 51-49 adavantage. Those numbers could change tomorrow.

If Susan Collins decided to retire suddenly, the governor of Maine would appoint a Democratic senator. If the Senate remains in Democratic control, any dead or retiring conservative SC justice would be replaced by someone much less conservative. All kinds of things could happen. Some wacko could blow up the Supreme Court, and we would get 9 liberal justices! I doubt the midterms and 2024 are going to be business as usual, considering one Party favors overthrowing the government, and Putin is backed into a corner where nukes look like his only option.

If Trump had won it would have been the other party trying to overthrow the election...

For the good of the country of course.


But most of them probably won't.