Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Politics In General Political Footballs or Hot Potatoes

I shot a dove once when I was a teen. It's funny, I've killed a lot of animals when I worked in medical research, fished, taken abalone, killed rattlesnakes, but always for a good reason. Higher purpose, humane euthanasia, safety, or to eat them. But that dove was the only thing I ever killed just for sport. That was more than 50 years ago, and that's the one I regret to this day.

Gun Violence is a multi-layered problem, no doubt. It requires a holistic and whole-of-society approach, which are particularly difficult to achieve in our fractious present. I liked your post, Greger, as succinct:


Mental health is a major factor, but not a complete explanation or solution. Indeed, political rhetoric on the subject is making matters worse. Plus, it tends to take attention away from the victims. What we, as a society, tend to do is throw everything together as if it one problem, when in fact it is a series of problems that coalesce. You've identified several of them.

Crimes, like fires, have three elements: means, motive, opportunity. Take away any of the three, it affects the outcome. Firearms, too often, are the means. That has increased over time. Not only are there more people than when we were growing up, there are far more guns. That circumstance is not insurmountable, but it is big and complex. The solution will have to be multi-layered and complex as well.

Looking back, this thread may be attempting to bite off too much, but I'm still game. As I re-read my last post, I realized that all of the problems I listed - and many more besides - are as multi-faceted as the gun violence issue. Using that as a template, though, is helpful: each problem should be broken down into its constituent parts to be analyzed and addressed.

Gun/violence. There are, obviously, two components, although there are numerous potential sub-components - what kinds of guns, what kinds of violence - and how they are related. Further, for example, is a crime being accomplished through the use of a gun (e.g., armed robbery), or is the gun the crime itself (brandishing, purchasing without authority)?

Starting with the second half: America Is Having a Violence Wave, Not a Crime Wave (Atlantic): As violent crime rose in 2020, property crime continued a years-long decline. "A historic rise in homicides in 2020—and continued bloodshed in 2021—has incited fears that after years of plummeting crime rates, the U.S. could be headed back to the bad old days, when a crime wave gripped the country from the 1970s to the 1990s.

But the FBI’s “Uniform Crime Report” for 2020, released Monday, suggests something stranger: Perhaps America is in the midst of what is specifically a violence wave, not a broad crime wave. Even as violent crime rose, led by significant jumps in murders and aggravated assaults, property crime continued a years-long decline.

“There was no crime wave—there was a tsunami of lethal violence, and that’s it,” Philip Cook, a crime expert at Duke University, wrote to me in an email."

This suggests that the sudden and dramatic increase in 2020-21 may be a blip, not a trend. It could be related to the pandemic, and/or the toxic influence of Trumpism.

Similarly, with the first half, it appears that the fascination with AR-15s is influenced by current events, but that the sale of rifles, in general, is continuing to decline. Tallying America’s fascination with AR-15-style rifles (Phillip Bump, WaPo).

"About every nine seconds in 2020, a rifle was either manufactured in or imported to the United States. It was the equivalent of a new rifle for every 100 U.S. residents. And, remarkably, it was a slower year than normal.

The massacre of 21 people at an elementary school in Texas this week — 19 of them schoolchildren attending class — has again prompted discussion of the country’s fixation on firearms. That means talking about rifles, particularly the AR-15 variants that have so often been used in mass shooting events. The weapon used in Uvalde was an AR-15 variant; so was the one used in Buffalo less than two weeks before. More than 30 people were killed in those two incidents.

As it turns out, a national focus on AR-15-style weapons is perhaps unexpectedly a key driver of sales of the weapons." (Emphases mine)

The number of households with firearms continues to decline, but the number of overall weapons continues to increase. The share of such weapons which are AR-15s fluctuates wildly, largely based on current events.

The one point where parties on either side of the argument might agree is that the crazies should not have access to firearms.

I mentioned Florida's Red Flag Law elsewhere...any slip-up concerning firearms that lands you in front of a judge can and will cost you your gun rights. That nips a lot of shootings in the bud.

In Florida, if the Mexican kid's grandma had called the cops, they would have found him, Baker Acted him, taken away his guns, and probably his right to legally own guns. He'd be forced into psychiatric care and onto medications then held until he was deemed no longer a threat.

But she didn't and he shot her in the face before going to kill the children.

The holistic approach involves living wages, healthcare, and education.

We ate 'em. But I was a lousy shot, shotgun shells were expensive, and I hated killing anything. I regret every single time I have ever taken a life.

Re guns and who should have access to them, and what kind, I like to use an automotive analogy.

Nobody cares if you cruise down the street in your Toyota Camry or Ford F150.
No one is concerned if you own a 12000 HP NHRA type top fuel dragster.
No one gets upset if you race your top fuel dragster at the track every weekend.

The problems start when folks think they can drive their top fuel dragster on Main Street.
Of course you certainly can drive your Camry at the track too if you like.

But a 12000 HP top fuel dragster sure as Hell isn't a Camry.

My penchant for numbers. The Texas school shooting took place on 25 May. The 538 generic congressional ballot showed the Republicans in the lead that day 45.0 to 42.7 over Democratic congressional candidates. Today, 5 June the GOP has a 45.0 to 42.8 lead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

RCP, my other source for the generic congressional ballot information showed the Republicans ahead of the democrats 46.3 to 44.1, today, 5 June, the GOP still has the lead 45.8 to 43.7

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

As with the leaked draft on overturning ROE, the mass Texas school shooting hasn’t moved the needle as to who folks plan on voting for come November. I think issues that resonate greatly among the two major party’s faithful such as abortion, gun control, immigration, etc. doesn’t get as much of a shrug among most independents. To them, independents, it’s the economy, stupid!

The numbers might change quickly, depending on what's happening to Trump. If he gets pissed off, he could tell his supporters it's all rigged and to stay home. And some particularly bad stuff is about to happen to Trump. At least two different Grand Juries are investigating him, one of those is already indicting people, lots of people who were deeply involved are cooperating to save their butts, and a Federal Judge has made a ruling that Trump et al more than likely committed felonies that warrant prosecution. Subtract those Republicans who follow Trump down the rabbit hole and the midterms come out very different from the current poll numbers.

Sure, they can change quite a lot, or they may stay quite steady. The 2018 generic congressional ballot remain steady from Jan until Nov, the Dems maintaining a 5-7-point lead all the way to November. They gained 44 house seats. 2014, the Dems and Reps were basically tied in the Generic until Sep 2014, one party ahead by 1 or 2 points then the other took the lead. Then in Sep the Reps jumped to a 4-point lead and won the nationwide congressional vote by 5 points. In 2010 the generic congressional ballot went back and forth from Jan until July 2010, a month when the GOP shot up to a 7-point lead. The Reps held that lead all the way to Nov, an election where the Reps gained 63 seats.

A short history there, but anything can happen. This year the Reps have maintained a 1-3 point lead since January. Hardly any luxation at all. Much like 2018. One could say the same thing about 2014, until September that is and about 2010 as well until July of that year. In a way it’s like Biden’s approval rating, he was sailing along at 53-54 approval until August 2021, then wham, bang, thank you Ma-am. He dropped to 41-42% approval and has remained there since September of 2021.

I agree that with Trump around, one never knows. I tend to treat every election as a normal election, But since Trump arrived on the scene, our elections have been anything but normal.

I somewhat disagree, he was the perfect foil to the Clinton candidacy. He enraged Democrats, intrigued independents, and promised the moon and stars to Republicans.
He lost the popular vote and won by an electoral fluke. Fairly normal as elections go with a surprise twist at the end.

Midterms after that were as you would expect them to be, as was the presidential election, Trump was out, Biden in, Dems lost a few seats because Republicans everywhere were certain that Trump would win and a goodly handful rode his coattails into power only to find him packing to move to Florida just as they were moving to DC....the irony of it was not lost on me.

They are expecting a Red Wave of Biblical proportions. It ain't gonna happen and it's delicious. I don't give a rat's ass what does or doesn't happen to Trump. Though I'd certainly feel vindicated if he was issued an ankle bracelet and exiled to Maralago(except during June July and August, I wouldn't wish that on anyone!)

Beyond that, I think it's bad form to prosecute a former president and that his imprisonment would probably cause a political feedback loop and an electoral backlash and backfire of major proportions and It will likely cost Democrats a decade out of power. But I guess we'll just have to wait and see.