Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

The first New York Times/Siena College poll out this cycle shows that among registered voters, 41 percent prefer Democrats to maintain control of Congress, while 40 percent want Republicans to gain the majority. A whopping 19 percent of those surveyed want “other” to control the legislative branch - clearly disillusioned with both parties.

Poll

Golly...that "red wave" is a mere ripple these days.

We've been predicting that there would be NO red wave for months. But that doesn't save the House. It's toast.

I'm in the "clearly disillusioned with both parties" column.

...not if 12 GOP Representative are indicted for sedition - as they should be.

For the house of representatives, here is the most important numbers - Currently the House of Representative consists of 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 5 seats to take control of the House.

There are 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 13 July 2022, 182 Democratic, 199 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 231-204 to 233-202.

The senate – competitive at-risk seats for the Democrats, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire. Competitive at-risk seats for the Republicans, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin. Looking at the at risk, competitive, switchable seats for the Democrats, New Hampshire and Georgia lean their way, Arizona and Nevada are pure tossups. For the Republicans, North Carolina leans the GOP way, Wisconsin is a pure tossup. Which leaves the Republican held seat of Pennsylvania which currently leans Democratic. Most likely outcome with this scenario is a net gain of 1 seat for the Democrats.

Historical wise, the average loss for the party in power where their president has an overall job approval of around 40% is 48.5 house seats lost and a loss of 6 senate seats. This isn’t going to happen. At least by today’s numbers. Regardless, the democrats are going to lose the house. You want a complete overview of the generic congressional ballot and not just from a single poll. Here you are.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

Just keep in mind, the generic congressional ballot is national, not district by district which I outlined above.

...not if 12 GOP Representative are indicted for sedition - as they should be.

Those 12 are from safe Republican districts. Besides, 2 of the 12 have lost in the GOP primaries. There are districts and states out there that are solid red or blue. It wouldn’t matter if either party ran Atilla the Hun as their solid red or solid blue candidate, Atilla would win. One needs to remember there’s 54 competitive districts as of today, subject to change of course. That means 381 districts are safe or one could say the winner is already determined prior to the first vote being cast.

Republicans have 199 safe districts, to retake the house they need to win 19 out of the 54. The Democrats on the other hand have 182 safe districts, need to win 36 out of the 54 competitive districts to retain control of the House. Even if you split the competitive districts down the middle, 14 GOP districts, give each party 7 each. Split the 40 democratic competitive districts at 20 each, you have the Republicans at 27 seats which would give them 226 with 218 needed to control the house. But with inflation and having a president at 38% approval, splitting evenly isn’t going to happen.

Thanks to Trump and his endorsements, the Republicans have fielded at least 3 very poor general election candidates in the senate races. PA, OH, GA. Trump is more interested in punishing his fellow Republicans than winning in the upcoming midterms. The Democrats would be better off keeping Trump very visible and continuing his endorsements. You and other democrats don’t realize how valuable Trump is to limiting the Democratic loses this year. Take him away, you just might experience that red wave.

I’ve been talking trends for quite awhile here. How it seems blacks and Hispanics, demographics of past reliable Democratic voters are slowly trending toward the GOP. The below article reinforces what I been saying and does so with polls. Much more good information is in this short article which is exactly what I have been pointing out previously. From the article and polls.

“The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.”

The bottom line from the article: “The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.”

The great realignment

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/14/republicans-democrats-hispnanic-voters?stream=top

This "great realignment" is what's going to cause the softening of Republican policy. It's occurring right along with the generational changing of the guards.

It's going to require Democrats to soften their own policies a bit as well and seek compromise when the iron is hot. Immigration reform, tax reform, healthcare reform, labor reform...

All things will become possible(within centrist parameters)

Perhaps with a generational change of both party’s leadership, then compromise becomes possible. Compromise was always possible under the senate leadership of Lott and Daschle and before them Mitchell and Dole. When Reid and McConnell took over, compromise went out the window. The biggest compromise during Lott’s and Daschle’s reign was the 50-50 senate tie which each agreed to a power sharing agreement. Something totally impossible today under each party’s leadership.

https://www.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/stories/01/05/senate.powershare/index.html

The house went off the rails with the Hastert rule. Here’s something else that might be of interest.

Young Voters Are Fed Up With Their (Much) Older Leaders

https://www.yahoo.com/news/young-voters-fed-much-older-120714251.html

Still toast. And still no red wave.

I'm gonna invoke the law of averages here...12 are suspected, 3 probably guilty, 1 probably not. The others have alibis or plausible deniability.

No one will be convicted. One might be indicted.

All are safe Republican seats and whatever the fate of the 12 random suspects, those seats will remain Republican. No one is going to change their party affiliation over a crooked pol or two.

Pero says 15-20 seats lost for the Dems if the election were held today. Probably accurate.

I say 15 tops on election day. **with no knowledge of any races, just playing averages again because...

Several issues are liable to get liberal leaners off the couch come November and I expect gas prices to be back near normal by then, certainly under $4 but not much probably ever again.

He's waffling on the Dem pick-up in the Senate and I say it's a sure thing thanks to Trump's clumsy kingmaking attempts. 51-49 Dems and I say you can take that one to the bank.

Losing the house by a small margin isn't a big deal.