Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Make this part II of my post right above it.

How to explain independents lack of interest in the midterm election. One way to put it is that it is the Democrats and Republicans own the horses (candidates) in the races. They have a huge stake in the results as the owners. Independents don’t own a thing, they’re casual observers if that. But they do usually decide who wins and who loses, not either party’s base. Independents will only become interested if they get angry at something the party in power has done or didn’t do. Then they’re energized to vote them out of power. Wave elections like in 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018 happen. If independents aren’t angry, fewer show up to vote and they usually vote to retain the party in power. Simple explanation, but at times, simple is best. Happy equals keeping the party in power, angry means getting rid of the party in power.

Today, I’d say independents are disappointed, dissatisfied with Biden and the democratic controlled congress. But they’re not angry. Not yet. Independents also don’t trust the Republicans which is their only alternative to replace those they’re disappointed, dissatisfied, unhappy with. A catch 22 situation. It seems independents don’t want the Democrats in charge of congress, but they don’t want the Republicans in charge either. This may be a case of split the difference. Give the Republicans the house but keep the senate in democratic hands which today looks like the likeliest outcome. Although this could change tomorrow.

I’d say come November, you’ll see a high turnout among Republicans and Democrats, but a vey low independent turnout as they don’t like their choices. Usually, although independents according to Gallup make up 43% of the electorate, they average only 30% of those who turnout to vote. I doubt if independents make up 25% of those who vote in November. It could be lower. That would be way below average for independents. Republicans and Democrats, each party makes up 27% each of the electorate. I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that each, Republicans 38%, Democrats 38% of those who turnout to vote this November. But it makes sense, since the two major parties own the horses while independents don’t like their choices.

No time to type this morning but I've got a question Pero...

What percentage of registered partisans turn out to vote?

It varies election to election, but I can give you some numbers from past presidential elections.
2020
Republicans made up 30% of the Electorate, 36% of those who voted
Democrats made up 31% of the Electorate, 37% of those who voted
Independents made up 38% of the electorate, 26% of those who voted

2016
Republicans made up 27% of the electorate, 33% of those who voted
Democrats made up 31% of the electorate, 37% of those who voted
Independents made up 40% of the electorate, 30% of those who voted

2012
Republicans made up 28% of the electorate, 32% of those who voted
Democrats made up 33% of the electorate, 38% of those who voted
Independents made up 38% of the electorate, 29% of those who voted

There’s probably a way to work out an answer to your question using the above numbers. I haven’t figured it out yet. Those who identify themselves as Republicans and Democrats are way overrepresented in those who vote as to their percentage of the electorate. An average of 6 points above their percentage of the electorate. Independents are underrepresented by 9 points. You could take this back 100 years, you’d still find those who identify with either major party way overrepresented when it comes to actual voting while independent are very underrepresented. That’s normal.

This as I stated before, I chalk this up as Republicans and Democrats owning the racehorses, candidates, while independents own nothing. They’re casual observers or fans if you like. Republicans and Democrats since they’re the owners have a huge stake in the results, independent, little to no stake as they can vote for one party 60-40 one election, then turn around and vote 60-40 for the other party in the next election. While on average, those members or those who belong, identify with the two major party’s votes for their party’s candidates 94% of the time on average.

Where you have 75% of democrats enthusiastic about voting this midterm, 80% of Republicans, when it comes to independents you had 24% say no enthusiasm with another 21% basically answering, what midterms? 55% of independents said they’re enthusiastic for comparison.

Now why would independents be eager to vote? They are very unhappy, dissatisfied with Biden and the Democrats in congress, they have all the wrong priorities according to many polls. Then their alternative is the Trump led Republicans which they dislike and don’t trust Trump. Nothing there to choose from or more accurately to vote for or against if I understand the numbers correct.

I think both major parties have alienated a very large segment of independents where stay home seems the best answer when asked to choose between them.

I was just trying to get a feel for how many registered Reeps and Dems sit home on average.
I figure a lot of folks register, choose a team, and then never come to the games.

Independents represent a small third of all voters but they're always voting a split ticket, so something like 15% of each party's votes are made up of independent votes.

Just a random observation...

Yes. You can break down independents into three groups, independents lean democratic, independents lean republican and pure or true independents with no leans. While the base of both parties as of 20 June is 27% each with independents making up 43% of the electorate. It’s really isn’t that simple. If you add leaners to the base total, that brings you up to 46% Republican base plus independent leaners, 45% Democratic base plus leaners. That leaves 9% as pure or true independents with no leans. Pure or True independents make up 21% of all independents. Also party affiliation numbers, percentages constantly changes, they’re dynamic. This year, 2022, the Republican base has been as low as 24% and as high as 29%. Democratic base has ranged from 27-31% while independents ranged between 39-46%. The independents numbers include pure/true independents along with independents leans Republican and Leans democratic.

The voting habits are different though. Whereas the base of a party will vote for their party’s candidates 94% of the time, independents who leans toward a party does so 74% of the time. You’d have the democratic base voting 94-6 over the Republican while independents who lean Democratic voting 74-26 over Republicans. Again, not that simple as that doesn’t include third party or independent candidates votes. Pure or true independents with no leans are impossible to figure out how they will vote, I gave up on them.

One other thing. The vast majority of polls divide party affiliation as Republican base, Democratic base and all of independents regardless of lean. Only a very few will include the leaners in their poll as being Republican and or Democrats. They’ll state so, Republican plus leaners or Democratic plus leaners. Those who do poll issues and not elections.

The polls I have cited since I’ve been here don’t include leaners among either party’s base.

Senate and House update 24 July 2022

Senate +1-3 equals lean, but within the MOE. These states are very competitive with one party or candidate having a slight advantage. +4-6 outside the MOE, equals likely but still competitive. +7 and above, those states aren’t listed. They’re considered solid or safe for the party that currently holds them.

Senate changes – GA D Warnock from +2 to +3, NV D Cortez Masto +2 down to +1, NC R Budd from +1 to +2, OH R Vance from +3 down to +2, WI R Johnson from +1 to +2

Arizona Kelly D – Kelly +2 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Georgia Warnock D – Warnock +3 Democratic hold R 50, D 50
Nevada Cortez Masto D – Cortez Masto +1 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
New Hampshire Hassan D – Hassan +3 Democratic hold R 50 D 50
North Carolina Burr R – Burr is retiring, open seat. R Budd vs. D Beasley. Budd +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Ohio – Portman R – Portman is retiring, open seat. R Vance vs, D Ryan Vance +2 Republican hold. R 50 D 50
Pennsylvania Toomey R – Toomey is retiring, open seat. R Oz vs. D Fetterman +3 Democratic gain R 49 D 51
Wisconsin Johnson R – Johnson +2 Republican hold R 49 D 51

Missouri R Blunt, Oklahoma R Inhofe, Vermont, D Leahy are retiring, these open seats may make my watch list if they become competitive later. Pennsylvania looks like the only seat to change hands, giving the Democrats a 51-49 advantage in the senate.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 221 Democrats, 214 Republicans. The GOP needs a net gain of 4 seats to take control of the House. There are 54 competitive, switchable, at risk districts. Currently held by 40 Democrats and 14 Republicans. Safe seats as of 24 July 2022, 181 Democratic, 200 Republican. Probable net gain for the Republicans is 18-20 seats. Which would give the GOP control of the house with the majority over the Democrats somewhere between 232-203 to 234-201.

I don't think the Senate picture presented is accurate, frankly. I think Johnson and Oz are both going to lose, giving Ds 2 more pickups. Masto is a wild card. My bet is 54-46 D Senate, barring any wild fluctuations. I expect to see the effects of the January 6 hearings slowly shifting views in purple Districts, few as there are. The effect of Dobbs is only now beginning to be felt. Count on women to repeat 2018 results. They're fired up.

The House is still likely to swing, but it's less of a sure thing than 2 months ago. History, geography and vote suppression favor the GOP.

Two months ago, the house had the basically the same numbers as of today. The GOP led by 2.2 points on 25 May, they lead today in the generic congressional ballot by 2.5 points baring any new polls today.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

Since redistricting was completed, the 18-20 house seat pickup also has been steady.

The senate, close races with some candidates to still be decided in Arizona and Wisconsin. But there’s only 6 competitive states, 3 from each side. Arizona, Georgia, Nevada from the democrats, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the GOP side. Incumbents have a slight advantage in 5 of the 6 today with Pennsylvania be the exception. There D Fetterman has the slight advantage. Incumbency is a huge advantage, which is why I expect Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin to remain where they are today. North Carolina is an open seat, but Budd is up in the polls and it seems he’s increasing his lead.

As for the 1-6 hearings, basically only democrats are paying attention to them along with some other avid anti-Trumpers. 32% of independents approve of the 1-6 committee, 39% disapprove and 29% answer, what committee? Those hearings have failed to move the needle at all. Neither has the leaked draft, the mass school shootings. The official overturning of Roe by the SCOTUS has moved the needle a point in the generic congressional ballot, but not in the at risk, switchable, competitive house districts nor in any of the senate races. Not yet anyway.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k4maehoie4/econTabReport.pdf

Independents will decide the midterms as Republicans and Democrats cancel each other out. We still have a long way to go, so nothing is written in stone.

Agreed. There is no way Vance is winning OH and Oz winning PA. Mentally ill Walker won't win GA either.


Agree with this too. If anything Trump has taught us is that it is NOT business as usual* as long as he's still around. Trump should do the Dems a solid and announce his 2024 intentions to run.

*midterms ALWAYS flip parties

Midterms always flip parties, no, usually not unless independents get angry. History of the House.

1955-1994 Democrats controlled the House for 40 straight years, winning all those midterms.
1994 flipped from Democrat to Republican
1998, 2002 these midterms, the Republicans remained in control, no flip.
2006 Democrats flipped the House
2010 Republicans flipped the House
2014 Republican remained in control, no flipping
2018 Democrats flipped the House.

Forgetting the 40 straight years of Democratic control of the house, beginning in 1994 the House flipped 4 times, stayed the same 3 times. So why were the Democrats able to maintain control of the House for 40 years? The answer is simple, From FDR until Reagan, those who identified themselves or affiliated with the Democratic Party averaged 45% of the electorate. That dropped to 35% from Reagan to Obama and now stands at 27%. With the Republicans also at 27% today, flipping is much easier depending on independents who now make up 43% of the electorate. The Republicans average around 27% of the electorate from Eisenhower until today.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/party-id-trend/