Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

I have held the opinion for some time, reinforced lately, and perhaps expressed earlier, that the crop of GOP candidates were singularly uninspiring. They are, collectively, the dregs of a formerly formidable party, headed by a Fascist - I use that term advisedly - and supported by fascist wannabes.

The GOP offers nothing for the benefit of the country - absolutely nothing - and I used to support their presence as a balance to the progressiveness of the Democrats. Unfortunately, that is definitively no longer the case. It astounds me that they have as much support as they maintain, given their rank incompetence, but then, old habits die hard. The GOP is to politics what smoking is to one's health.

I'm going to make a prediction here and now so y'all can hold me to it later. Joe Biden is going to be reelected by essentially the same margin as last time. Moreover, the House is going to swing to the Democrats. The Senate I am not as sure about, as that is a seriously uphill climb.*

The basis of my prediction is multifold, but essentially this: 1) the economy continues to improve, and that reality is beginning to trickle down to the masses; 2) democracy really does matter to the majority of the electorate, and the efforts at killing democracy by the GOP are pissing people off (e.g., gerrymandering, vote suppression, making voting harder); 3) the GOP has become a cult, and the cult leader has never won an election on merit; 4) Trump is becoming more unhinged and more nakedly fascist; 5) Dobbs shocked the country and its repercussions are really becoming alarming - a woman in Texas literally died because she was denied a timely abortion, and she is not likely to be the last.**

* "Democrats are defending seven of the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. An eighth, Arizona, is held by a onetime Democrat, independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who still caucuses with her former party and hasn’t said whether she’s running for reelection. Manchin’s decision has had the immediate effect of making the only two Democratic targets on this list – Texas and Florida – much more prominent in the party’s 2024 strategy.

Assuming West Virginia is off the map for Democrats, here’s what may need to happen for them to keep control of the Senate: They could defend all of their remaining seats and retain the presidency (because of the vice president’s tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate); they could hold all their remaining seats, lose the presidency, but flip either Florida or Texas; or they could lose another seat, win the presidency and flip both Florida and Texas. Flipping either of those states while losing the presidency would mean the Democratic Senate candidate would have to significantly overperform the top of the ticket.

The math is daunting." The 10 Senate seats most likely to ... abortion could be on the ballot in 2024

I usually do monthly election forecasts. I go by the numbers available today and for each of the coming months. For January 2024, I agree Biden will be reelected. But won’t receive over 50%. 47-45 popular vote win, 287-251 in the EC. Low voter turnout and a high third party vote due to the dislike and unwantedness to become the next president of around 30% of the electorate for both major party candidates. An election more in line with 2016 than 2020.

The Democrats regain the house, probably a 6-10 seat gain while losing the senate. The democrats have already ensured themselves of a 2-seat gain with the redistricting done in Alabama and Louisiana which created two new majority black districts. Senate wise, West Virginia, Ohio and Montana go republican.

We had a lower percentage of all Americans who disliked both Trump and Clinton in 2016, 25% disliking and not wanting neither one. Voter turnout was 54% in 2016 compared to 62% in 2020. Third party voted was 6% in 2016 compared to 1.7% in 2020. We have a bit more percentage wise of the electorate today dissatisfied, disliking, not wanted a bit more with both major party choices than in 2016. Of course this all depends on how many state ballots RFK Jr. and the no labels party get on. That is unknown at this time. RFK Jr. has qualified to be on Utah and New Hampshire’s state ballots and is in the process of getting on 10 more state ballots, Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Texas.

No Labels has ballot access in at least 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. Signature gatherers have another 14 states in their sights between now and November, though the major parties are throwing up their usual obstacles. Although they haven’t settled on a candidate. How viable will RFK Jr. and No Labels be, that all depends on how much money they have to spend. Since 1960 the candidate with the most money raised and spent has won the presidency with one lone exception, 2016 when Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million.

Rather than quoting your whole post, I'm going to identify items I agree and disagree with, in sequence, and explain why (this is why I love RR):We agree, here. I believe his numbers will improve with the economy and Trump's will fall precipitously as the reality of what a second term portends becomes increasingly apparent. Shockingly, it is still too early for too many folks to pay attention. I disagree, but for precisely the reason that you think there will be a drain from a 3rd party candidate.I already made my prediction - 306 EC votes for Biden. I think he will improve his margin in every swing State that was close. This is the crux of our disagreement. I believe there will be high voter turnout that surpasses 2020, at least for the Democrats, for a few profound reasons: First, abortion will be on the ballot in several States - we've already seen how that drives turnout; second, the economy is already booming, and it is becoming more obvious to everyone (even FOX, who is trying desperately to spin gold into straw). Finally, as Trump gets more exposure, the issues he has are going to eclipse concerns about Biden's frailty. Trump is showing huge mental acuity lapses, and the pressure of his multiple trials is driving him off the rails. He's also increasingly demonstrating anti-democratic intent which is impacting a lot of the voters. That will only increase as the reality becomes more acute. The FOX/Trump vote is locked in. He's not improving his position.Here we also disagree. Both Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester will be reelected, in large part because of the abortion issue. Montana will have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot, and the high-handed efforts to prevent it appearing on the ballot are rankling the population, who are quite independent. Sherrod Brown has just been too good for Ohio. Although Ohio is still quite red, the inherent conservatism actually helps Brown, as Ohioans are averse to change.While this is true, in 2016 we didn't really know where Trump would land. His term was an unmitigated disaster in virtually every aspect. Biden's unpopularity is skin deep, Trump's is bone.
I think you underestimate the motivation of Dobbs and overestimate antipathy to Biden.Here is a significant difference. I don't think there will be a major 3rd Party presence. They missed their window. No Labels is waning quickly and they have no viable candidates. RFK, likewise, will get even less attention as time progresses (and people learn just how truly whacko he is).

Now, there is a huge caveat to all of this: either candidate could have a major health scare and that could throw the whole process into a cocked hat.

I’ll just hit a couple of points, my reasoning for a low voter turnout is the high dislike and unwantedness of both major party candidates. 58% of all Americans don’t want Biden to run again, 53% don’t want Trump to run again either. Questions 14 and 15. As I said I’m relying on numbers, although I know they’ll change over time.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_HvTrDQB.pdf

And if you look today, round off, Biden is viewed by just 39% of all Americans in a positive or favorable manner, 55% negative or unfavorable. Trump is close to identical at 42% favorable or positive vs. 54% negative/unfavorable.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

Then we have 64% of all Americans who think this country needs another viable choice other than Biden and Trump, 36% think the choice between Biden and Trump is good enough.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/HHP_Jan24_KeyResults.pdf

As for abortion, I always viewed that issue as being baked in. Over the last 50 years of so, those avid pro-choicers, those who decide their vote on the abortion issue have become democrats as those avid-pro lifers became republicans. As for third party, we had Johnson, Stein, a few other who were just a third name on the ballot not named Trump nor Clinton that drew 6% of the vote. They were out spent in 2016 1.8 billion by the two major party candidates to a bit over 3 million. There was no way for any of the third party candidates to get their message out, no media attention, no name recognition, no nothing. Yet they drew 6% of the vote in 2016. No labels and RFK Jr. have roughly 7 more months to get on the ballot in most states. Once we know on how many states, we’ll have a better idea. No Labels say they’re well financed, time will tell. RFK Jr. has name recognition.

One last thing about age and mental acumen. 55% of all Americans that Biden’s age severely limit his ability to do the job. Question 21. But only 23% says the same about Trump. Question 24.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_HvTrDQB.pdf

I do think Brown stands a better chance of winning than Tester does in Montana. It all determines who their opponent will be. But for the most part we’re on the same sheet of music. I’d be more worried about the 30% of the electorate searching for someone other than Biden or Trump. What will they do? Who knows at this time?

Here’s something from Gallup I just received in my inbox. It may help explain by around 30% of all Americans are searching, looking for, wanting someone other than Biden and Trump. I think this applies directly to this year’s presidential election.

Felonies, Old Age Heavily Count Against Candidates

https://news.gallup.com/poll/609344...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

There currently is a border bill in Congress that Donald Trump is encouraging the GOP to blow-up because if passed, ol' Joe would score a "win"

If the border is such a concern for GOP'ers why would they blow-up this deal? Because the GOP "concern" for the border is a lie just like everything else with the GOP.

The GOP is in such a disarray right now, I can't imagine them actually doing well in November. Current polls be damned.

Compromise is a four letter word which the nutty extremists will not use .... remember alligators? .... army on the border? .... Texas about to subvert the Constitution

don't delude yourself into thinking MAGA is not viable. In Republican states they will be elected. Trump will win the Republican vote in Republican states. Is there enough MAGA infrastructure in place to arbitrarily throw out votes in order for Trump to win? Will the court uphold fake elector schemes? Should there be another assault on the Capitol, will gun toting MAGA congressmen (and women) help the insurrectionists?

We do not live in "normal" times. The MAGA assault on our institutions has all but placed the columns of Democracy on a precipice. Any hard movement will find rubble at the feet of Democracy. Only the weathermen knows which way the wind is blowing.

Many of the retiring congress critters has mentioned the dysfunctional state congress is in the reason they’re retiring. The Border deal is a prime example. And yes, compromise is a four-letter word. MAGA or Trump is still very viable. Trump leads Biden in a two-candidate head to head race today. But keep in mind, these pollsters gave the respondents only two choices, Trump or Biden. They didn’t give them any third party or will not vote option which changes the below equation quite a lot.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Biden, although trailing in the popular vote, leads in the electoral college as far as pundits, forecasters are concerned.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/sabatos-crystal-ball-2024-president

As long as Trump is around, there will be no normal times, if ever. The main reason a lot of swing voters voted for Biden in 2020 was to bring some sanity and normalcy back to the office of the presidency and government as a whole. Today, quite a lot of them have forgotten the reason they voted for Biden back then. It isn’t that these voters have gone over to Trump, they haven’t. They’ve went into the vote third party or will not vote, stay home columns if the rematch occurs. There’s dangerous water ahead, unsure sailing for Biden.

Isn’t it strange that the future of this country may lie in the hands of 9 black robed justices.

Strange is not the word I would have used.

If Democracy is contingent on the SC, we are definitely lost. Democracy is only viable if we the people say it is so.