Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Polls still use landlines. What Millennial has a landline? Ol' Joe has a secret weapon: T.S.

Polls use different methods. Yes, landlines are still used to a small extent, so too are cell phones, voice interactive responses, the internet, e-mails to selected participants, old fashioned pollster to caller question and answers, talking to the person. Now history has shown most polls to be accurate within their MOE as stated in the polls. What one needs to watch is the poll of all Adults, of registered voters or of likely voters. Pollsters change their methods over time. They get paid for the accuracy of their polling. A polling firm that is always off, inaccurate won’t stay in business long as both major parties and candidates want accuracy along with the news organizations, pundits, forecasters, you name it.

A couple of examples, the 2022 generic congressional poll with an MOE of plus or minus 3 points show a result of Republicans 48.0 to the democrats 45.5% a 2.5-point margin for the GOP. The final result was 50.6% republican, 47.8 for a margin for the GOP of 2.8 points. The final margin was well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points. The 0.003% difference is about as close as any polling can get.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

In 2016 polls had Clinton winning the popular vote by 3.3 points, she won it by 2.1 points. The 1.2-point difference was still well within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

Now the 2020 polling average had Biden winning the popular vote by 7.2 points, he won it by 4.5 points. Barely within the MOE of plus or minus 3 points, off by 2.7 points, but considered accurate as the average of polls were within the MOE.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html

If you look at the polling average today, Trump vs. Biden. Trump is leading in the polls by 3.9 points. But applying the MOE of plus or minus 3 points as most polls are, Trump’s lead may be as small as 0.9 of a point or as much as 6.9 points. I always consider the MOE when doing my forecasting. Anything within the MOE, I consider it a tie. One other thing is polls have a long history of over inflating the Democrats by a couple of points as you can see in both 2016 presidential and in the 2020 generic congressional along with the presidential. The 2020 generic congressional ballots had the democrats winning by 6.8 points, they won the generic by 3.1. Slightly outside the MOE. But the polls were still inflating the Democrats winning margin.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

If you look at Pew Research in the confidence level of how elections are administrated, 22% say very well, 48% somewhat well, 22% not very well with 9% not well at all.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...istration-and-confidence-in-vote-counts/

Now confidence in election results per Gallup - accurately cast and counted in this year’s election -- very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not at all confident? 63% answered very or somewhat confident. Broken down 85% of democrats are very or somewhat confident, 67% of independents, but only 40% of republicans.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/404675/confidence-election-integrity-hides-deep-partisan-divide.aspx

Which closely aligns with the percentage of voters who think Biden legitimately won in 2020, 64% say’s Biden did, 36% says Biden didn’t. Broken down – 95% of Democrats state Biden won legitimately, 68% of independents, 26% of Republicans. Question 29. Now go to question 30, Would you say that Donald Trump legitimately won the 2016 election, or not? 69% of all Americans says he did, 31% say he didn’t. Broken down 53% of democrats say Trump won legitimately, 47% says Trump didn’t. 65% of independents, 90% of republicans also said Trump’s win was legit.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_i9N6Z0N.pdf

Notice the lack of trust republicans showed in 2020 results to their full trust in the 2016 results. Same for the low percentages of democrats who thought Trump won legitimately in 2016 to their very high trust percentage in Biden’s win in 2020. Independents, 2/3rds trusted or thought whoever won regardless of party both years, their win was legit.

I think you have misinterpreted what I mean when I say "Democracy is only viable if we the people say it is so".

Democracy does not depend on whether people believe an election was stolen or what the polls say about what they believe, but rather maintain a belief in an orderly transfer of power. An example of how we have devolved and in particular why the SC is not the arbiter of Democracy, in the 2000 election the SC was an interloper in the Democratic process. They can not declare winners. Only the voters can make that decision. Allow the ballots be counted. Likewise any intervention by the SC now would only exacerbate an already degrading belief in Democracy.

What I have noticed in the last 20 years is a palpable erosion of rational thought by conservatives. The say they are patriots but hate the Constitution. Because I live n the South I suspect there is a legacy of anti-federalism sentiment still alive and well. Buried beneath the facade states rights, I believe there is a broad current of delusional thinking unhinged from a healthy cynicism of the federal government. This pervasive delusion has a stranglehold on the Republican(read as MAGA Party). Part and parcel is an increasing belief there is a legitimate argument for the violent overthrow of government.

A small number of people saw the possibility in 2020 of what this delusional thinking would encompass. We saw it with our own eyes on Jan 6. We heard it in the shadows, and now it is heard in public, and that is only people talking. Now we have seen and are now seeing states rebuffing court orders. The courts have no mechanism to enforce their orders, other than a belief in Democracy.

Polling does not reflect nor measure the groundswell of delusional thinking, which is only getting worse. Their delusions are exacerbated by media which feeds them half truths or no facts at all. These people feel disenfranchised because they believe the federal government is not only corrupt, but has abandoned their core belief system. Deep within the soul of these people is the selfish belief based in bigotry, the federal government is giving their hard earned money to people who do not deserve it, the non-whites, or because they are poor.

These folks were here before Trump and will remain long after Trump becomes a footnote in history. How many people doe it take to overthrow Democracy in our country? It won't be 9 black robed individuals. It could very well be a small number in the halls of Congress, in state legislatures, and election boards which topple the pillars of Democracy. Imagine replacing the current chairman of the Joint Chiefs with Gen Flynn, and similar replacements in other key positions. Democracy may end with a whimper, not a bang.

Okay, I understand that. According to both Pew Research and Gallup we do have between 60-65% of all Americans that still have confidence or trust in our electoral system. Confidence and trust that the results are correct and accurate. Nothing to do with stolen elections or the peaceful transfer of power or does it? Our democracy is based on the Trust and the belief of the accuracy of election results. If one doesn’t trust the system or have confidence in our electoral process, the way it is run and trust in those overseeing the results, that I think would lead to the thinking of stolen elections and the disruption of the peaceful transfer of power. Especially if one thinks the winner is bogus.

If the way, we elect our leaders is distrusted that I think leads to the distrust of our leaders and in our electoral system as a whole. Which leads to a lot of folks believing in stolen elections and to the disruption of the transfer of power from those who think the winners are bogus, that they didn’t actually win, but lost. How our democracy performs is based on trust in the electoral system, people voting and having a belief, confidence, trust that their vote was counted, and the overall results were correct and accurate. If one believes, trust, has confidence in this, our electoral system there will be no thought of a stolen elections or disruption of the peaceful transfer of power.

I think confidence and trust in our electoral system is what keeps our democracy viable, lasting far into the future. We’ve entered an era where more and more people are distrusting the way and results of how we elect our leaders, trust in our government to do what is right is fast eroding, trust in the media to report the news accurately, fully and fairly has gone into the dumps. All of this in my opinion is eroding and destroying democracy in this country. It’s not only the peaceful transfer of power, but confidence and trust in the whole system democracy provides, electoral, government, media, etc.

I totally agree, but,


I believe this has been in the works for decades. Maybe I'm just a conspiracy theorist, but this didn't happen overnight. Just like the murder of Roe was a multi-decade, multi-generational effort, I believe the end of our democracy has been too!!

I cannot stress that enough. It has been coming for decades!

Trump happens to be the lucky winner. He will be the one to finish democracy as we know it. The pieces will finish falling in to place and allow this to happen - because it has been, A. Long. Term. Plan.

Maybe, I've just lost my mind over it!

Here’s public trust in government, it shows your decades theory correct. Watergate seems to be the catalyst in how Americans distrust their own government although they continue to elect their own government leaders. We don’t trust who we elect. Perhaps this is due to electing the lesser of two evils or those voting against a candidate/party, but never for a candidate or party. I’ve done the latter in each of the last two presidential election. Voting against both major party candidates in 2016 and voting against Trump in 2020, casting a vote for Biden, but it was mostly due to my want to have Trump gone. Not necessarily for Biden. Anyone who could have beat Trump would have done.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/public-trust-in-government-1958-2023/

Trust in the media to report the news fairly, accurately and fully has also declined since Watergate.Only 32% of all Americans trust the media to do so.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/512861...nt=morelink&utm_campaign=syndication

Trust or confidence in our electoral system only goes back to 2004, but since then that trust or confidence has fallen from 75% down to 63%. I wouldn’t call Trump a winner, but he is the result of decades of growing distrust and lost confidence in all three categories, Government, media and our electoral system. I would add an overall distrust of our institutions of government. 41% have a great deal or a fair amount of trust in the presidency, executive branch, 32% in congress, legislative branch 49% in the judicial branch.


https://news.gallup.com/poll/512651/americans-trust-local-government-congress-least.aspx

So let me quote selected words from the Preamble of the US Constitution " ... establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity". Implicit in those words are "peaceful transfer of power".

Ben Franklin said it, it's a republic (meaning Democracy) if you can keep it. So, how does any Democratic nation keep Democracy? It is only through a peaceful transfer of power. What are the predicates of that process? You mentioned them. Fundamental institutions inherent to any viable Democracy, A strong 4th estate to report the facts in order to enhance transparency in government. A strong judiciary, above the dirty business of politics. A government which implements their contractual agreement with it's citizenry. And the glue which binds them is the orderly peaceful transition of power.

The erosion in confidence in the fundamental institutions which form Democracy have been assaulted by conservatives since at least the 1990's. With the initiation of Fox News in 1996 conservatives had a a built in propaganda machine, blasting their listeners 24 hours a day with not just misinformation but disinformation and a psyops campaign to gaslight their audience so they wouldn't know what was factual and what was not.

Government is so corrupt you can only trust a Republican. Media is against conservatives, so they lie. The judiciary rules against conservatives ideals. Government is run by a Satanic cabal heading to Marxist communism. It was that cabal which implemented the CRA, an affront to white Christian's in the South. These people were looking for a savior. Trump being a savvy media guy recognized if he could hitch into that "aggrieved" group of people he could fulfill his narcissistic delusions. Is it any wonder why there is such a large group of people which has no confidence in anything remotely appearing to be government related or the media?

You type of the electoral system ... The conservative propaganda machine has been repeating for years every election has rampant fraud committed by Democrats. Since these folks will never see the facts, they have believed for some time now Democrats lie about elections, the media lies about elections, conservatives are persecuted by government, media, and the judiciary. Is it any wonder when Trump told them the election was rigged and Democrats conspired to defraud him, they believed it.

These people are delusional and now believe as a result of the aforementioned and their delusions, peaceful transitions of power are a thing of the past unless a Republican wins all elections. They have filled the courts with judges who rule based on political ideology rather than the law. They have attempted packing election boards with people who believe only a conservative should win an election, not could but should. There is no telling how many people in the military have become brainwashed with this disinformation and will answer the call for the next physical assault on Democracy, whether it be the Capitol, the Media, or the Courts.

We are in dangerous times and those who wish the demise of Democracy are well funded with many followers, both ideological and delusional willing dupes.

Only Republicans are doing that. Decent Americans are not.

Too many decent Americans are still asleep.
They're decent but they're snoring.