Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Ever hear of the Bradley Effect? I'm predicting right now on MO 07/25/22 the Bradley Effect is in play.

...except in 2022, it's not about race, it's about supporting the Dems.

I must disagree. It’s not about supporting either party today. It’s a question of which major party you want to lose the least. Not win but lose the least. That doesn’t translate into support for either one. I’m talking independents here. They mighty dissatisfied, unhappy, disappointed in Biden, all you must do is look at his approval rating along with the Democrats in congress.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

But independents don’t trust the alternative party either, the Republicans. Only 27% of independents have a favorable view of the Democrats, 54% unfavorable while 29% view the GOP favorably, 50% unfavorably with the rest in the undecided, not sure or plain don’t care column. There’s no love there or support for either party. The support is for a viable third party so independents don’t have to make a choice between Republicans and Democrats.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/k4maehoie4/econTabReport.pdf

and

Support for Third U.S. Political Party at High Point

https://news.gallup.com/poll/329639/support-third-political-party-high-point.aspx

Who do independents plan on voting for this midterm? It’s 35-27 for the Republicans with the rest in the undecided, not sure, other or will not vote column. The good news for democrats is independents aren’t angry at them yet. Just disappointed, dissatisfied, plain unhappy. Throw in the distrust of a Trump led party, that means minimal loses. It is my opinion that Trump right now is the difference between minimal loses and a red wave. Without Trump, there would be no hesitancy about independents voting for the alternative party to the Democrats, the Republicans.

We’ll see…

Ah, hope springs eternal, yes, indeed we’ll see. November is still a long way off, plenty of time for these numbers to change. I think the difference is I’m going by today’s hard cold numbers whereas you’re going by the heart. When doing my forecasts, I leave out my feelings, emotions, the heart. Most of the time, I’m successful in doing that. But every once in a while, they slip in.

Supporting them? Why? What have Democrats done to improve the lives of independent working Americans in 2022? And why would independents lie to the pollsters about who they will vote for?

Partisanship is the new racism, but independents aren't racists. They don't care what party you belong to...they want results. Democrats have not delivered.

Democrats are not trying to take away their rights or actually kill them, like so many Republicans seem bent on. That should count for something. If Biden can't come through with the things he said he wanted, it's because he didn't win enough of congress to make those things happen. So we need more Republicans in congress, so even fewer of those things happen? I think the basic problem is that few voters understand how the government works: If you like the things that a party proposes, you need to vote for that party to make those things happen.

Instead they get distracted by buzzwords and made-up issues. IE: Critical Race Theory, ANTIFA's insurrection at the Capital, The Great Replacement Theory, Stolen Election, to name a few.

I think you need to look at the entire 2020 ballot and not just the presidency. 2020 wasn’t even close to an endorsement for the Democratic Party agenda if one takes the entire ballot into consideration. Outside of the presidency, it might even be considered a rejection. 2020 was simply an election to get rid of Trump, no more, no less. Remember the Republicans while losing the presidency by 7 plus million votes gained 13 house seats, a governorship and two state legislatures. Biden became the first president since 1884 to win the popular and lose house seats. Biden won by 7 plus million, lost 13 house seats. Grover Cleveland back in 1884 won by a mere 58,000 and lost 8 house seats. Below the popular vote percentages.

Biden won the presidency 51.3 to 46.9%
House Republicans received 49.1 to 48.3 over the Democrats
Senate Republicans received 49.3 to 47.0% over the Democrats
Governors Republicans received 52.4 to 44.1% over the Democrats

I don’t have the popular vote percentages for the state legislatures, but the GOP increased their number of state legislatures in 2020 over 2018. But take note the Republicans won the nationwide popular vote for the House, senate and governor’s races. Only at the presidential level did the Democrats win the nationwide popular vote. You had approximately 7 million ticket splitters who voted for Biden, more to the truth, against Trump than for Biden, then voted Republican down ballot. That’s voting Democratic for president, then voting Republican for the House, senate, Governors and state legislatures.

The only conclusion one can arrive at is 2020 was a rejection of Trump, but not an endorsement for the Democratic agenda. If it was an endorsement of the Democratic Party agenda, the people would have given Biden the numbers he needed in congress. They didn’t, in fact they took away Democratic numbers and gave them to the GOP.

I don't think independents get distracted by partisan buzzwords like critical race theory or replacement theory, or even Antifa forces storming the capital...they don't care enough to get distracted by Republican chimeras any more than they believe Democrats will raise the minimum wage or provide "free" healthcare.

They want results, not promises.

• $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package
• $1.9 trillion COVID relief deal
• Commitment to Combating Climate Change
• Support for Transgender Service Members
• Reduced unemployment
• Expanded Access to Health Care
• Reduced Hunger
• Confirmed Judges That Reflect Our Nation

Pretty tough when Congress is divided when one party controls the House and one controls the Senate, or certain Members of a Caucus act as if they support the cheap and chintzy platform of the other side.