Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

You’re still on the abortion kick. Fact is more Republicans turned out to vote than Democrats. Only a lot of Republicans voted against Trump chosen candidates along with independents while voting for non-Trump chosen candidates. Quite a lot of ticket splitters. At least 5 million of them in November, voting against Trump chosen candidates and then voting for non-Trump chosen Republican candidates. No exit polls on the Georgia senate runoff yet between Walker and Warnock.

Turnout by Republicans Was Great. It's Just That Many of Them Didn't Vote for Republicans.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turnout-republicans-great-just-many-191913435.html

I agree that the Republicans do have the uncanny ability to lose winnable elections. PA, NV, GA, NH, AZ are senate races that come to mind right off the bat. In the past, candidates like Murdock, Aiken, Miller, extreme right lost very winnable elections. I believe that republicans are more interested in making a statement than winning in the general election. That’s their problem.

Am I reading the CNN exit polling wrong ? ¯\_(: / )_/¯

According to CNN exit poll, they had this:

Crime 11%, Abortion 27% Inflation 31% Gun policy 11% Immigration

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

I’d say those 27% who thinks abortion was their most important issue were already democrats and Democratic voters. You noticed they didn’t list independents, which made up 31% of those who voted. Just Republicans and Democrats. So, this is how 69% of those who voted listed their most important issue. Not 100%. Which goes back to my statement that abortion was already baked in. But if you want to believe abortion was the defining issue, feel free to do so. I’ve provided all sorts of numbers to prove abortion was already baked in, no need to beat that dead horse.

What’s also interesting is 51% of all Americans think the Democratic Party is too extreme, 52% say the Republican is too extreme.

My graphic came from that very same link. How do the two square? ¯\_(: / )_/¯

Personally, I think there is a shift on. It will probably take the rest of the decade to see the results, but I think Democrats are picking up adherents, and Republicans are losing them. Unfortunately, geography, demographics, and judicial politics will all still play an outsized role in the makeup of the Congress, and the Electoral College results. We're still poised on a knife's edge regarding the continued insurrection.

Right wing terrorism is on the rise. We are in for an extended period of "lone wolf" and more organized attacks, like the substation attacks in North Carolina, Oregon and Washington.

Then we have the continuing agitation of Trump, Musk and Fuentes, MT Greene, Tucker Carlson, Laura Ingraham, and Paul Gosar, among many others. I've seen a lot of reich-wing activity online, and it is becoming extremely unsubtle. They don't even hide their animosities anymore. They have allies in Congress and the media, and have been stockpiling weapons.

"Right-wing armed groups won’t disappear after inauguration, even as they pose a bigger threat to U.S. democracy and rule of law than any organized crime group, and have killed more Americans in recent years than foreign terrorists. The threat of such groups and their political cooptation by Trump’s political supporters will persist long into the Biden administration. Countering this must be a high priority." How to counter right-wing armed groups in the United States (Brookings)

So, it really is coming down to democracy vs. autocracy, and we need to play to win.

I tried to find yours and couldn’t. I’d like to come up with an explanation. I scorlled through the exit poll 4 times, no luck.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

Democrats, make peace with the 2A and if possible, arm yourselves.

It’s the 11th question, right after condition of the economy question.

Are we looking at the same exit polls? The 11th question down is Work full-time? Condition of the nation's economy is the 4th question down followed by Party ID. Most important issue to your vote is question 56 down. Right below Confident your state's elections are fair/accurate? And right above Democracy in the U.S. is:

Your link goes to the same CNN exit polls as mine. I’m at a lost.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/national-results/house

I still think those who listed abortion as their top issue were already Democrats and Democratic leaning independents. In other words, abortion already backed into the equation. I think the number one reason for the democrats excellent showing was Trump and his choice of very poor quality candidates like Walker, Oz, Mastriano, Laxalt, Cox, Diehl, Bolduc, Tshibaka, Lake, Masters and more which a majority of independents disliked and thought them all as extremist. But this is okay, I blame the poor showing of Republicans this midterm on Trump, you can say it was abortion. Whatever the cause, the Republican Party has started their job of ditching Trump. I think that speaks volumes on who and what they blame for the midterm election results.

Anti-Trump Republicans Grow Louder: 'He's Less Relevant All the Time'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/anti-trump-republicans-grow-louder-125045756.html

I also think it’s important that Republicans who view Trump very favorable, in other words the way I read this, avid Trumpers has dropped from 65% in January down to 41% today.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bp8fjk5g14/econTabReport.pdf

Surprising after 3 straight election losses. I think not. I just wonder what took them so long to figure out Trump is an albatross around the Republican Party’s neck.

Yes we’re looking at the same poll. I referenced the wrong question It's question 30. The poll also suggests that a lot of new voters came to the midterm to vote - mostly Democrats - which according to question 30, was because of abortion.

This is exactly what NPR had been saying all along leading up to the election.