|
0 members (),
3
guests, and
0
robots. |
|
Key:
Admin,
Global Mod,
Mod
|
|
|
Forums59
Topics17,089
Posts313,787
Members6,305
| |
Most Online294
Dec 6th, 2017
|
|
|
There are no members with birthdays on this day. |
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54
enthusiast
|
OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54 |
While there maybe 23 seats that may flip on November '24, I'm talking next month in January '24. Five GOP seats are going away in NY. I’m not quite sure I follow you. If the districts in NY must be redrawn, those new districts wouldn’t take effect until after the Nov 2024 elections. It’s much like the Alabama case where the SCOTUS ruled their current map unconstitutional or in violation of the voting rights act. Alabama was made to redraw their map which they did. But the results of the 2022 midterms remain until the new election in Nov 2024. New York as for republicans have these districts at risk of switching for NY for the Nov 2024 election. NY-03 Vacant, NY-04 Anthony D'Esposito, NY-17 Mike Lawler, NY-19 Marc Molinaro, NY-22 Brandon Williams. Currently Democratic held seats I think stands a good chance of switching – AK 1, OH 9, ME 2, MI 7, MI 8, OH 13, PA 7, PA 8, WA 3. A total of 9 seats. Currently Republican held seats I think stands a good chance of switching – AL 2, CA 13, CA 22, CA 27, CA 45, NV 3, NY 3, NY 4, NY 17, NY 19, NY 22, OR 5. A total of 12 seats. Keep in mind all of this is dynamic and changes all the time. Having a good chance doesn’t mean they will. But the above districts have the best chance of switching. Which if I were to make a forecast based on the above, risky this far out, I’d say either party could gain or lose 5 seats. As the generic congressional ballot shows the same. A pure tossup as for control. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2024_generic_congressional_vote-7969.html
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
|
|
Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
Michigan districts are to be redrawn as well...before any election. The three-judge panel ordered the Secretary of State to refrain from holding elections in those districts until they are redrawn in compliance with the Equal Protection Clause of the U.S. Constitution. Detroit News
Contrarian, extraordinaire
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
|
|
Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
...and now Wisconsin: The Wisconsin Supreme Court has struck down the state’s maps, ruling that they are in violation of the state constitution, and ordering that new maps be redrawn ahead of 2024.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
|
|
Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
While there maybe 23 seats that may flip on November '24, I'm talking next month in January '24. Five GOP seats are going away in NY. I’m not quite sure I follow you. If the districts in NY must be redrawn, those new districts wouldn’t take effect until after the Nov 2024 elections... ...or they can do it before like MI and WI. 
Contrarian, extraordinaire
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54
enthusiast
|
|
OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54 |
Here's the list of the top 10 senate seats that may switch. The top 8 are all democratic held seats with 9 and 10 on the list being Texas and Florida. Good read. https://www.yahoo.com/news/10-senate-seats-most-likely-100025381.html
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54
enthusiast
|
|
OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54 |
This is most interesting. Pundits on the electoral college give Biden the edge in the electoral college forecast 260-235 with 4 tossup states, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Even with Trump leading in the popular vote 46.5 to 44.3 over Biden. https://www.270towin.com/maps/sabatos-crystal-ball-2024-presidenthttps://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-bidenIt seems very possible Biden could win the presidency via the electoral college while losing the popular vote. Much like Trump in 2016 and G.W. Bush in 2000 did. Of course, both the electoral college polling numbers along with the nationwide popular vote are dynamic and change constantly. This is also as of today, not 10 months from now. It does seem the democrats today have the electoral college advantage, not the Republicans.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 2,288 Likes: 16
enthusiast
|
|
enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 2,288 Likes: 16 |
What about the other candidate(s)? Those third party candidates like the No Labels group and whoever else is going to run? That is what is going to allow Trump to get in office again. They will suck away from the Biden voters. Nothing will suck anyone away from Trump.
Good doesn't always win!
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54
enthusiast
|
|
OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54 |
Okay, there’re very few polls that list more than two candidates, Trump and or Biden. One that does is Quinnipiac which shows Biden 36, Trump 38, RFK Jr. 16, West 3, Stein 3. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us12202023_regvoter_uopw25.pdfThe thing is we don’t know on how many state ballots those third party or independent candidates will be on. This is the reason this far out there are a dearth of polls with more choices than just Trump and or Biden. RFK Jr. has qualified to be on the ballot in Utah with working proceeding to be on the ballot in ten more states. Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Texas. https://apnews.com/article/robert-k...-ballot-863513ec2bf75d1efc9b202cb8ddcc4ahttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/rfk-jr-ballot-access/In 2020 the Green Party was on 38 state ballots, the Libertarian on 49 with a bunch of other third parties on 1-4 state ballots. Far as I know, West hasn’t started to get on any state ballots yet.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351
Member CHB-OG
|
|
Member CHB-OG
Joined: May 2005
Posts: 47,286 Likes: 351 |
The only difference between RFK Jr and any generic NoLabels candidate is the amount of Qanon they believe in.
NoLabels is basically the Party of Harlan Crow and Clarence Thomas and RFK Junior is Timothy Mellon and that Overstock dot Com guy who contributed to the January 6th insurrection. The only folks I see advocating for RFK Jr are Libertarians who don't like Trump or ol' Joe.
Contrarian, extraordinaire
|
|
|
|
|
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54
enthusiast
|
|
OP
enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2019
Posts: 2,815 Likes: 54 |
I don’t think it’s so much advocating for RFK Jr. What we have is about a quarter of the electorate looking for someone other than Biden or Trump be that RFK Jr. Cornell West, Jill Stein, the Libertarian or whoever the no labels party settles on. Perhaps Manchin, Hogan, Romney or someone else. RFK Jr. just happens to be in the news more than the others. He also has the Kennedy name.
It's basically a lot of independents that are looking for someone else. They’re not going to get it. Although in 2016 12% of independents did vote third party with a lot more staying home and not voting due to their dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Clinton. We have the same dislike and unwantedness of both Trump and Biden by independents going into 2024. Independents made up 40% of the electorate in both 2016 and in 2020, at least according to Gallup, so it’s easy to compare.
2016 independents made up 26% of those who voted, approximately 35.6 million which 12% voted third party or 4.3 million. In 2020 independents made up 29% of those who voted, approximately 46.4 million in which 5% voted third party, 2.3 million. Which 11 million more independents voted in 2020 than voted in 2016. The question is will those 11 million more independents vote in 2024 or stay home like they did in 2016? If they do vote, will they choose between Trump and Biden or pass on both by voting third party? Time will tell.
It's high past time that we start electing Americans to congress and the presidency who put America first instead of their political party. For way too long we have been electing Republicans and Democrats who happen to be Americans instead of Americans who happen to be Republicans and Democrats.
|
|
|
|
|
