Capitol Hill Blue Forums Hot Topics & Breaking News News GOP and Democrats All But Tied Going into Midterms

Trump controls around 40-45% of the Republican Party. But that’s enough for him to win the nomination as those oppose to him are way too divided to stop him. ALA 2016 when Trump won the nomination with 35% of the GOP vote. Trump is currently at 43% in the GOP nomination polls against a whole lot of non-announced maybe candidates. Which he’ll probably stay close to that all the way to the convention. Haley isn’t about to defeat Trump. I don’t think DeSantis will either as DeSantis as many pointed out is Trump 2.0 without the baggage along with the childish antics and schoolyard bullying tactic. The probability of Trump being the GOP nominee is high today. But there’s a long way to go.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...blican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

Now look at how Biden is doing against a whole lot of non-announced candidates.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...cratic_presidential_nomination-7550.html

If Biden decide to run again, no one will challenge him as to do so is a death knell to a sitting president. The polls give Biden a slight lead today over Trump with a very long time to go before Nov 2024.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

But Trump has stayed fairly hidden from public view, off TV. He hasn’t been in front of the tube very much to remind voters why they dislike him so much. Give it time, Trump will defeat Trump if he runs again in 2024. Just like Trump defeated Trump in 2020, not Biden. Like Trump’s chosen candidates in 2022 lost helping the Democrats turn what should have been a red wave into a red trickle or a blue trickle, take you pick.
Biden also has a small lead against DeSantis

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...ral_election_desantis_vs_biden-7967.html

Biden has a slightly bigger lead against Haley.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general_election_haley_vs_biden-8127.html

Biden has a 44% overall job approval today, he should be 5-10 points behind if it weren’t for Trump. Trump is keeping Biden afloat and slightly in the lead. Trump is chugging along with a 36% favorable among independents, 58% unfavorable. Not the type of favorable/unfavorable rating that would imply Trump has a chance of winning them. Unless his opponent is right around that 36/58% favorable/unfavorable. The one I’d be worried about is DeSantis, independents haven’t made up their mind about him yet. Today DeSantis is at 36/38 favorable/unfavorable with 26% undecided, not sure or asking who the heck is DeSantis. Me, I’ll just sit back and relax and watch. Worry, no. Fear, no. Trump isn’t about to win anymore general elections. The caveat, that is unless the Democrats screw up and nominate a candidate as disliked as much as Trump is by independents. Like in 2016.

And for the record, yes I thought Clinton would win in 2016. I knew the polls showed Trump tied with Clinton in Pennsylvania, Trump ahead by 1 in Michigan with Wisconsin having no recent polls, the last one was 20 Oct 2016 with Clinton having a 6-point lead. I went by history and gave all 3 tossup states to Hillary Clinton. I got them wrong. I should have paid closer attention to the polls. They were there for everyone to see, but like the professional pundits, I ignored them.

Welp...the white go-go boots wearing mini-Trump guy isn't going to get it.

That’s correct Rick, at least as it stands today. But who knows how it will stand in 8 or 9 months from now when the primaries start heating up. The problem for anti-Trump Republicans, that anti-Trump is too strong as they would support Trump if he wins the nomination. Those Republicans who don’t want Trump to be their nominee out of fear of close to being a guaranteed general election loss are way too divided to settle on a single candidate to prevent Trump from gaining the nomination. Also, way too many of the more high-profile Republican, the bigger names are afraid to jump in know their chances as of today are close to nil. A no name challenger won’t due. Haley comes to mind. Going over the probable’s or possible’s, there’s no one there that can successfully challenge Trump. At least as of today, tomorrow, who knows?

It looks like Biden has clear sailing if he decides to run again. I’m sure the Democratic Party leadership knows the history of sitting presidents who were challenged with their own party. They all either withdrew and the one who challenged the sitting president lost as in the case of Kefauver vs. Truman 1952 or McCarthy vs. LBJ 1968, Eisenhower and Nixon won over Stevenson and Humphrey. Or the sitting president was able to pull out a win in the primaries only to lose in the general election, Ford 1976 vs. Reagan, Carter 1980 vs. Kennedy, G.H.W. Bush 1992 vs. Buchanan.

It's not that Trump scares me, he does not. I think he is a pathetic little orange man that should have been tried for treason
.
What does worry me is what he started. The Maga movement. To me, this is nothing more than a group that want to obtain authoritarianism. They are unable to understand, that, should what they want, were to happen here, they will be treated no different than the rest of us. They will be enslaved right along with the rest of us.

This Maga movement now includes Congress persons who are gung-ho about obtaining the Maga goal. And Maga state legislators, which could be even more dangerous than MAGA congress people. BTW, the MAGA rule is not to make America great again. It is to make America a dictatorship with their dictator in charge. Again, they are not able to comprehend that they will be minions too.

How much longer until Maga also infects the Senate? Then what? The Presidency again? If they again gain the Presidency, it's over.

I disagree.

I don't believe Trump started the movement. So let's take a look at the history behind it.

The MAGA group is primarily motivated by immigration issues (and the associated racist issues) i.e. whites versus colored folks. First words out of Trump's mouth were aliens crossing southern border. First issue of interest for MAGA's is immigration. So if the first thing these folks think about is how superior they are to colored folks, it is an implicit admission they are authoritarians. So the question is, did Trump start the movement?

I'll go back to the racist block of southern Democrats prior to the Civil Rights Act of 1965. This block of voters became disenchanted with the Democrat Party as the northern Democrats voted for the bill. The Republican Party despite the fact they voted for the bill decided to seduce this group of disaffected voters to the Republican Party with advertisements of their concerns solely for these voters vis a vis all voters in the South. Thus began the migration of Democrat voters to the Republican Party.

So if you look at the context of their political history it becomes clear this is the foundation for MAGA. Add the additional influences of the NRA in the late 70's and the rise of Gingrich in late 80's, and finally the formation of the propaganda arm of the Republican Party with Fox News in the 90's, we see a full complement for the theoretical basis of MAGA.

Trump has some media savvy, and he took advantage of the skepticism of big government, and and largely cynical bigotry of these formerly disaffected Democrat voters. These folks are simple minded and suffer from political paranoia. People not "them" are out to get them and they believe they are superior to the "others".

Republicans for the most part have ignored the MAGA group and simply provided a shill for them, tacitly condoning their bigotry by denying they are bigots. These establishment Republicans have long known who the MAGA were and are but couldn't allow non-Republicans to consider the Republican base were bigots. Trump was the first to recognize how much power these folks had in the party and simply tapped into it.

This is the reason I argue that unless and until one of Trump's opponents openly endorses MAGA for what they are, Trump will win nomination. And let me quote this ....
Trump should scare everyone. You know what he is and you know what he wants. The MAGA has laid the foundation for a giuoco piano coup. From the local levels of government to state offices to federal government and now we have allies of the failed coup buying residential areas 2 blocks from the Capitol. If you were planning another coup, the board pieces are in place, simply waiting for the right time to move.

The 2016 and current MAGAts are the same population as the 2010 TBaggers.

The 2010 TBaggers are the same population as the 1960s,70, 80s, 90s, 00s Birchers.

You could be quite right on this.

Perhaps, I should have worded it like:
What does worry me is what Trump has termed the Maga movement.

He supercharged it and made it attractive to the mainstream via extreme white supremacist nationalism.

DeSantis bid to be POTUS in 2025 ended today. He didn't even make it to New Hampshire - the 1st GOP primary state. Now Ron can go back to Florida where he'll keep losing court cases to Mickey Mouse.

Mr. "I'll never back down," backed down.

Had Gov De Santis come clean and proclaimed his white nationalistic stripes, he may have been the winner in Iowa.

The missing piece for GOP candidates to win over the base is white nationalism i.e. just claiming the border is a problem is not enough!!! It's gotta be full tilt boogie ... non-whites are replacing whites, Democrat operatives are bringing them in intentionally, etc .... o and there are good people on both sides ;>)