Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Jeffrey - I don’t know how well no labels will do or even if they’ll field a candidate. I assume they will as they’ve worked hard to gain ballot access in 14 states and probably will succeed in another 15-20. As far as I know, read, no labels don’t have anyone else in mind. Although what they’re doing behind the scenes, out of the media’s eye, I haven’t a clue. I do know RFK Jr. is receding, his poll numbers are dropping. That he hasn’t been able to gain ballot access outside of two states. That makes me wonder if RFK Jr. has basically given up. His staff is in turmoil, many have quit.

Maybe we’ll back to the original third parties, Libertarian, they somehow manage to get on all 50 state ballots. The Green Party which gets on around 30 and West. But as far as I know, West hasn’t succeeded in gaining any ballot access on any state ballot. Then we’ll have 20 or so third parties on one, two or three state ballots. Usually drawing well less than one percent of the vote in any of the states they’re on.

But we’re still left with around a quarter of the electorate wanting and looking for someone other than Biden and Trump. If not No Labels or RFK Jr. then who? I imagine most of that quarter looking for someone else will in the end decide between Trump and Biden as the candidate they want to lose the least. Then a good portion will probably stay home and not vote since they couldn’t find a candidate they wanted. The only thing I know for certain is that there’s very little enthusiasm for this rematch.

But it’s early, only 40% of all Americans have been paying a lot of attention to this upcoming election. That will change as we get closer to November. As folks attention turns toward the election, the numbers will change. What we have today is approximately 35% solidly in Trump’s corner, 35% in Biden’s with 30% either in the vote third party mode or not vote at all or undecided column. This time in 2016 we had 24% in the vote third party, not vote at all or undecided column. But in 2020 we had but 9% in the vote third party, not vote at all or undecided column.

With the SCOTUS decision behind us, with Super Tuesday voting beginning this AM, the results well known before the first vote is cast. A look at where the presidential election stands today. The overall picture without delving into depth as to why.
Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Three candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy
Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
Biden’s overall job approval - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/approval-rating
Biden’s job approval on the issues - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/issues
Biden’s favorable/unfavorable - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden
Trump’s favorable/unfavorable - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump

In 2020 Biden lead Trump by 5.5 points on 5 Mar 2020.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
In 2016 Clinton lead Trump by 3.4 points
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

Third-party group No Labels is expected to move forward with a 2024 campaign, AP sources say

https://www.yahoo.com/news/third-party-group-no-labels-011044070.html

Far as I know, No Labels has ballot access in 14 states, worth 123 electoral college votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah. Only Arizona in this lot is considered a swing state.

No labels is a label, it's Harlan Crow, the guy who's been openly bribing Clarence Thomas all this time and both of them getting away with it..
and a bunch of Harlan's like minded buddies who also hate the Rule of Law and democracy and all that shee-it.

Never in all my years have I seen an electorate so beaten down by a...no wait, I have seen it...but it was in Russia.
So, is that it, No Labels and all the other think tank funded insurrectionist loving outfits?
We're all gonna become Russians?
That's the plan, and we're all okay with it?

Regardless of how you put it or others say about it. There’s no doubting the fact that most Americans don’t want Biden reelected nor do they want Trump to regain the white house. This is why you seen 25% of the electorate latch on to RFK Jr. a couple of months ago. But he was a fleeting fancy and has done nothing to enhance his status or to gain ballot access outside of two states, Utah and New Hampshire.

No Labels may or may not be another passing fancy. Regardless, that doesn’t stop a quarter of the electorate to stop searching for someone other than Biden and Trump. What will that quarter of the electorate do once they find their other candidate not available other than the usual old third parties like the Libertarians, Green Party, Constitutional etc.? Two months ago, it was Trump 37, Biden 34 with Kennedy 20, West 3 and Stein 3. Today, with RFK Jr. souring with this Group of voters Trump 41, Biden 40 with Kennedy 9, West 3 and Stein 1 making up the rest.

You see about half of RFK Jr. voters from 2 months ago decided to choose between Biden and Trump. But if the no labels party fields a candidate, will those previously RFK Jr. supporters’ defect from Biden and Trump to the no labels candidate? No way to tell until no labels fields a candidate if they do.

I have no idea where to put this one. It dawns on me. I remember when Hillary Clinton lost the election to Trump. One of the main reasons is because she believed many supporters needed no attention - it lost her the election. Now we have Biden, seemingly, doing the same thing. All ads are to red states, etc. Blue states seem to be ignored. I wonder if the same thing that Hillary did is being done bye the Dems. I am in the state of Washington and we have no ads, no nuthin. Because they think they already got the state - hopefully not!

We will see, I guess...........

Jgw, I can’t tell you what went on in other states, but there were plenty of Clinton ads here in Georgia in 2016. This year over the last month or two, there’s been plenty of anti-Trump ads also. I suspect they’re being run by a PAC or some other pro-Biden or anti-Trump group than being run by the Biden Campaign. I haven’t seen a pro-Trump ad yet. Probably all the money for pro-Trump ads have gone to paying his legal bills.

2016, Clinton developed a strategy that would help her win more electoral votes than Obama did. She spent heavily and spent a lot of time and energy on red states Romney carried in order to accomplish her goal. In the meantime, she ignored states she thought she had in her hip pocket like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania. Why would she worry about them, they hadn’t gone Republican since 1984? That’s seven straight presidential elections those states went for the democratic candidate. I don’t know about campaign ads, but I do about visits to those states. Hillary made no campaign visits, stops or rallies in Wisconsin to Trump’s 5, Michigan was the same 6 for Trump 1 for Hillary. Pennsylvania, 8 for Trump 5 for Hillary. Hillary’s 5 included election eve visit to Pittsburgh.

Looking at all the state polls available for 2024, there’re only 3 states which one or the other candidate doesn’t lead them by 5 points or more. Less than 5 classifies those states as swing or tossup states. They’re Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The other 47 states, one or the other candidate is ahead today by 5 points or more. Trump has a one-point lead in Wisconsin, a 3.6 point lead in Michigan while Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 0.8 of a point.

Here's something else - The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-trump-rerun-nation-craving-164710271.html

Time to move on to 2024, senate. West Virginia is a goner as far as the Democrats are concerned. They wanted to be rid of Manchin, they are getting their wish. Although a MAGA republican will replace the centrist, moderate Manchin. But that’s what the democrats wanted. Montana and Ohio, pure tossups which could go either way. Going by state polls, the senate looks like this today, 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats,2 pure tossup states.

The house is another tossup as to who gains control. The GOP has a slight 2-point lead in the generic congressional ballot. At risk of switching seats, 22 Democratic, 21 Republican.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/2024/generic-congressional-vote

Today, I would put the popular vote percentage wise as roughly, give or take a few points that today we have approximately 35% wanting Trump, 35% wanting Biden with 30% wanting neither. That 30% falls into 3 categories, undecided, those who are stating they’ll vote third party or not vote at all if the rematch occurs. Popular vote – Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Three candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy
Five candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Electoral college going by available state polls, there are only 3 states where one candidate or the other has less than a 5-point lead. Less than a 5 point lead equates to a swing state or a tossup state. Only 3 swing or tossup states if one is going by state polls. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump has a 1.0 point lead in Wisconsin, a 3.6 point lead in Michigan, Biden leads in Pennsylvania by 0.8 of a single point. This is as of today.

https://www.270towin.com/

I live in Washington state. I have yet to see a single Democratic ad. Perhaps I just don't watch enough TV. I have friends in other places and they feel the same way as I do. I REALLY don't want Trump anyplace but in jail. I think its important that the Dems get themselves shown everyplace. They may think that they got this or that state nailed down and needs nothing but I also know that if people are ignored they tend to say; Oh you don't care about me so I don't give a damn about you either.

I can be absolutely wrong on this one but I also remain concerned. Then, again, I also believe that the United States has waaaay too many people that seriously support a man who has a record of rape, theft, chiseling, lying, throwing people under the bus, (and the list goes on and on). It simply makes no sense. One of the problems, I think, is that the Republicans seem to be getting a LOT more exposure than the Democrats. My belief is that this is not a good thing. I don't know if its because media simply tends to give more exposure to the Republicans, or that the Republicans are simply better at getting their lies out to the populace. Perhaps I am just worrying myself for no reason.

Given the simple fact that the Republicans tend to make little errors in fact whilst the Democrats are simply silent just tends to make me really scared to death. The woman who make the Republican reply to the Biden speech and threw in a pretty good lie has been heavily covered. That is a good thing. However, that being said, I also know that Trump gives a speech, every day, and every speech is full of lies and they are simply ignored. We are also told that the Dems have the big bucks. One would think that every time Trump runs his mouth the least the Dems could do is call him on his lies.

Oh, Trump is now trying to get a debate with Biden. I remember the last one several years ago (maybe it was Hillary, in any case. He actually bullied Biden, Hillary or both. and got away with it! I can only wonder if that can also happen again.

Just saying..........

jgw - Trump trying to get a debate or debates with Biden surprises me. The RNC pulled out of the presidential debate commission, I thought that left the presidential debates dead in the water.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/14/politics/rnc-withdraws-from-presidential-debates/index.html

Trump is like that old showman who believes that there is no such thing as bad publicity, no publicity is bad. Trump’s outrageousness worked for him in 2016, making him the headliner in all news reports relegating Clinton to later in the news, back page so to speak. Trump knows how to get exposure from the media, good or bad, he doesn’t care as long as his name is out there.

The general election campaign usually doesn’t start until September, but with the super Tuesday results with both Biden and Trump sewing up enough delegates to cinch the nomination, it probably began the day after. Clinton made the mistake of visiting, pouring in money for ads in too many red states she had little to no chance of winning ignoring her own backyard. Ignoring Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan cost her the election. You’re correct there.

The anti-Trump ads has ceased here in Georgia. Perhaps they were Haley’s doings for the Georgia GOP primary on the 12 March. Who knows? They certainly didn’t help her if it was her doings.