Capitol Hill Blue Forums Political Issues Elections 2024 2024 Election Forum

Rick, Landlines, cell phones, internet and more. Here’s how Pew Research select those who they poll - How are people selected for your polls?
Most of our U.S. surveys are conducted on the American Trends Panel (ATP), the Center’s national survey panel of over 10,000 randomly selected U.S. adults. ATP participants are recruited offline using random sampling from the U.S. Postal Service’s residential address file. Respondents complete the surveys online using smartphones, tablets or desktop devices. We provide tablets and data plans to adults without home internet.

And - The Quinnipiac University Poll uses what has long been considered the gold standard methodology in polling: random digit dialing using live interviewers, calling both landlines and cell phones. This methodology has been the key to our accuracy over our many years of polling.

That’s but two examples, if your interested in the changes made - How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2023/04/19/how-public-polling-has-changed-in-the-21st-century/

What I like to use is RCP and their polling average of all the recent polls when possible. Averaging eliminates the strength of an outlier poll. RCP averages has been accurate within the MOE of the polls for about every election. Pundits and opinion pieces tend to pick and choose the polls that backs up whatever they’re trying to say. RCP by averaging also eliminates the pick and choose pundits and opinion pieces. Although at times there isn’t any choice but to rely on a single poll depending on what one is looking for. RCP doesn’t cover voter enthusiasm, but YouGov does. So, I have no choice but to rely on YouGov. As for polling firm’s accuracy and reputation. You have this from 538.

538’s Pollster Ratings - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

And this from RCP - RCP Pollster Scorecard

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/

As I have stated before, cash flow to the candidates is a much better barometer indicator than any poll.

According to Open Secrets, Biden has raised 188.7 million so far, Trump 179.1 million. RFK Jr. is lagging behind having raised 71.6 million. That’s pretty good for an independent candidate.

https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race

The money race is probably a lot closer than you thought. That however doesn’t take anything away that from 1960 through 2020, the candidate who had raised the most money always won with one lone exception. 2016 when Clinton raised and spent 1.191 billion to Trump’s 646.8 million.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-fundraising/

The cash and the polls both reflect a basic tie.

Two candidate race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Five way race - https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

Along with a basic tie in the electoral college.

https://www.270towin.com/

Contrary to the assertion otherwise, If you use a cell phone only, you have never been polled and never will. One of the problems with cell phones is they are not tied to an actual location. The other is that cell phone only use is demographically skewed to younger voters.

Why do polls keep showing that Trump is ahead of Biden with youth voters for 2024? In short, they’re wrong. They’re wildly, laughably wrong. Worse, these pollsters intuitively know that their results are wrong, yet they’ve been refusing to fix their flawed sampling method.

Any given poll gets more media coverage and credibility if it’s laughably wrong, than if it’s reasonably correct. The media loves nothing more than to take a shocking poll that can’t possibly be accurate, and hype it as if it were 100% correct – even while ignoring all the polls that say the opposite.

It's important for media to promote a "tight race," because doing so promotes more page clicks resulting in more ad revenue.

Also contrary to other assertions, since Roe V Wade was overturned, Dems running on abortion have won EVERY special election. Contrary to other assertions, abortion IS the number one issue for women voters, the polling sampling is wrong. The special election results validate this.

Rick, what the polls are showing with the youth vote is 55-34 Biden over Trump with the rest undecided. In 2020 Biden won the youth vote 60-36 over Trump. The numbers are almost identical for this year vs. 2020. I haven’t seen any polls showing Trump ahead with the youth vote. That is BS propaganda.

Special elections especially for the House of Representatives all have their unique circumstances. Mostly local issues. I don’t follow special elections as they’re in my opinion due to the situation in each district which differs from district to district which are the important issues. Perhaps abortion was the most important issue among women in those special elections. I don’t know. Maybe not. Maybe there were solid blue districts and maybe not. But you got me curious, so I looked up the House special elections. So far there’ve been 4.

New York's 3rd Congressional District on February 13, 2024. Republican Santos district which went to the democrat Tom Suozzi. Biden won this district by 8.2 points in 2020. Likely Democratic District.
Utah’s 2nd Congressional District on November 21, 2023. Republican Stewart district won by republican Celeste Maloy, Trump won this district by 17.1 points in 2020, Solid Red District
Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District on November 7, 2023. Democrat David Cicilline District won by Democrat Gabe Amo. Biden won this district by 29.1 points in 2020, Solid Blue District
Virginia's 4th Congressional District on February 21, 2023. Democrat Donald McEachin District won by Democrat Jennifer McClellan. Biden won this district by 36.0 points in 2020. Solid Blue District

I’d say no surprises. One solid red district, Utah, one likely democratic district, New York, two solid Blue districts Rhode Island and Virginia. Special elections pending with dates:

New York's 26th Congressional District on April 30, 2024. Solid Blue
California's 20th Congressional District on May 21, 2024. Solid Red
Ohio's 6th Congressional District on June 11, 2024. Solid Red
Colorado's 4th Congressional District on June 25, 2024. Solid Red
California Senate on November 5, 2024. Solid Blue
Nebraska Senate on November 5, 2024. Solid Red

https://ballotpedia.org/Special_elections_to_the_118th_United_States_Congress_(2023-2024)

This is interesting - New poll shows RFK Jr.'s campaign could sink Trump

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...ump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

This goes against conventual wisdom as the pundits have been saying RFK Jr. would hurt Biden more than Trump. I’m prone to think way too much attention is made of RFK Jr. Mainly to the fact he’s has succeeded to gain ballot access in only 3 states so far. Hawaii, Michigan and Utah. Cornell West has tied RFK Jr. in gaining ballot access in 3 states, South Carolina, Alaska and Oregon. The following third parties are ballot-qualified in at least five states:

Libertarian Party: 37 states
Green Party: 20 states
Constitution Party: 12 states
Independent Party: 5 states

It’s been 2 weeks since the hush money trial began. One week of jury selection, one week of the actual trial. In the two-candidate race on 15 Apr the polls showed Trump 45.2% Biden 44.9%, Trump by 0.3 points. Today, Trump 44.8%, Biden 44.5%, Trump up by the same 0.3 points he was 2 weeks ago.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

In the five-way race on 15 Apr, it was Trump 41.9%, Biden 40.0% Kennedy 10.0%, West 1.7%, Stein 1.5%, Trump up by 1.9 points. Today it’s Trump 41.0%, Biden 40.1%, Kennedy 9.5%, West 1.7%, Stein 1.2%. Trump up by 0.9 points. A drop of a full point.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

2 observations. Why did, do, we expect the hush money trial in progress would affect Trump’s standing in the polls against Biden if the 91 federal indictments, the 2 previous civil trials, the E.J. Carroll and the New York Fraud trials, the Georgia case, all of Trump’s legal problems to date hasn’t had any effect. 2. But then again, perhaps we or I should say I, haven’t given the polls enough time to fully adjust to the on goings, the happenings of the hush money trial. Most polls on the trial are what If polls, what if Trump is found guilty would you still vote for him. Which make it hard to impossible to ascertain exactly what effect the trial is having on the average American and the rematch between Biden and Trump with the exception of the horserace polls.

First, the start of jury selection 15 Apr, Trump 45.2, Biden 44.9, Trump by 0.3. Three weeks later or into the hush money trial -Trump 46.6, Biden 45.1, Trump by 1.5 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

The five-way race, 15 Apr, Trump 41.9, Biden 40.0, Kennedy 10.0, West 1.7, Stein 1.5. Trump up by 1.9 points. Today, Trump 42.1, Biden 38.9, Kennedy 10.0, West 2.0, Stein 1.5. Trump by 3.2 points.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/po...ump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein

I had firmly believed once folks saw Trump sitting at the defendants table during a criminal trial his number would go down. Apparently, that hasn’t been the case. Maybe I should have known better. If being found guilty in the two civil New York trials, the 91 federal indictments, the Georgia case haven’t affected the dynamics of this rematch, why did I believe this hush money trial would? It’s seems nothing short of a guilty verdict is going to have an effect. Now, today, I’m not too sure about that. I went searching. To this question - Do you think the legal prosecutions of Donald Trump are fair and unrelated to politics or do you think the Democrats today are engaged in lawfare - a campaign using the government and the legal system in biased ways to take out a political opponents? 43% answered fair and legal, 57% answered using the legal system to take out a political opponent.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/HHP_Apr2024_KeyResults.pdf

Is that the answer? But wait, in the same poll, 55% of all Americans think Trump committed crimes, 45% don’t. 52% think Trump is a threat to democracy, 48% don’t. Definitely contradictorily numbers. Perhaps there is no sane answer. Maybe no reason to be found in the numbers either. The only thing the polls have been constant in and has been for months is that around 60% of all Americans don’t want Biden reelected, 60% don’t want Trump to regain the white house. With that, therein may lie the answer why none of these trials has affected Trump one bit. Only 38% of all Americans have been paying attention to this upcoming presidential election, 42% are enthusiastic about voting for the president, but 41% have no enthusiasm at all about voting for president. They don’t care about the rematch. Trying to make sense out of something that makes no sense seems to be an impossibility.