Predictions:* the GOP field is not likely to be winnowed much further until February (excepting maybe Jindal and Gilmore). After the three earliest States there will be a large exodus. Santorum, Pataki, Carson, Fiorina, and maybe even Christie, will drop out. Huckabee and Paul will be clinging to life with a hope for a "southern strategy" and unique constituencies. Theirs are "issues" candidacies, not real contenders (as is Graham's).

On the Dem side, Murray and Chafee will bow out. Sanders will have done well enough in New Hampshire and Iowa to keep it a race and continue to push Clinton to the left. Clinton will find that to not be such an uncomfortable place to be, as she has been shoring up her bona fides on that side consistently already (Keystone, immigration, etc.).

By mid-March, Clinton will have cleared the field, begun to pivot to the General election, and be gearing up for the Convention and establishing the juggernaut of a campaign. The GOP field will still be in flux. Trump may bow out by April, or may take his marbles to an Independent run. Rubio and Bush will be slugging it out for the establishment mantle, with Kasich clinging to relevance. Huckabee may finally run out of money and give inb with a sanctimonious speech about the importance of "values". Cruz will be riding the "outsider" money train and continue being the obnoxious a-h he always is (all the way to the Convention) where he will be a disruptive, destructive force hampering his party's chances in November.

* Bookmark this so you can laugh at me come May.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich