I think many forget we rode this train last cycle. Outsiders zoomed to the front early, flashed, then burnt out. People love a challenger until the campaign gets down to brass tacks, then they go all "establishmenty." That is why Clinton and Bush (and Romney and McCain in previous cycles) have the advantage. Obama was the exception that proved the rule, and mostly because of his exceptional organizing prowess. This year is different because of the money, so Cruz and Huckabee, Trump and Fiorina, maybe even Paul, can stick around longer, but they won't gain traction. They will peak around 20-25% - enough to disrupt the race, but not to win it.

I'm betting on a Jindal announcement soon.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich