On another thread we have a great discussion going about the meaning of John Boehner's
resignation, and I almost posted this there, but I think it is important for this broader discussion.
Meet the Four Kinds of GOP Voters. The premise of the article, in trying to understand the polling strength of various candidates, is that the Republican electorate is not homogeneous, but made up of discernible types:
I see clearly four different types of GOP primary voters and caucus-goers. Not all of them, of course, are conservatives or even Republicans, since independents and even Democrats can vote in some of the early GOP primaries. Figuring out who these voters are and what they’re looking for is critical to each of the remaining candidates—because they’re not all equally up for grabs.
The GOP’s “True Believers” - what we used to call "died in the wool" - "aren’t for turning or wooing, at least not easily." They are the fervent acolytes for particular candidates, and won't change until their candidate is gone - if even then.
"The second category of GOP voters is the “Buckley Voters,” so called because they tend to follow the “Buckley Rule” and support the most conservative candidate they see as plausibly winning the presidency in the fall of next year." We see a lot of this in polls asking who is "most electable." "Buckley Voters are real deal small government, big defense, pro-life and pro-religious freedom conservatives, but they insist on being able to reach 270 electoral votes. They want, more than anything, another Reagan." [oh, GOD no!]
"That third category of voters are what I call 'center-right governing conservatives.'" These are the "old line" conservatives who are actually interested in passing legislation, and effective government. They, unfortunately, are the least "passionate" of Republican supporters, perhaps the "silent majority" - but not the influential majority.
Finally, there are the “Uniques.” "They are in this election to support a candidate for a unique reason or because of that candidate’s specific platform." Think of Graham (who also appeals to the "governing conservatives" bloc), and Rand Paul's libertarian-Republicans. They tend to be "single issue" voters, so it is hard for them to trust other candidates that don't focus on that issue.
In approaching this analysis, it is important to remember
this is coming from a Republican advocate, not some left-wing critic. There are parallels on the left as well. I know that I am in the "governing Democrat" mold, even if not technically a Democrat. I am most interested in good policy.
