In a move sure to infuriate Sanders acolytes, NBC and AP have declared Clinton the presumptive Democratic nominee: Hillary Clinton Makes History - ahead of today's New Jersey and California contests. These announcements depend on superdelegates, but New Jersey and California would put her over the top with pledged delegates anyway. Hillary Clinton Will Be Nominated Because More Democrats Are Voting For Her.
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On Tuesday, Clinton will almost certainly clinch majorities of elected delegates and the popular vote. Suppose that Sanders, who currently trails Clinton by a narrow 5 percentage points in our California polling average, were to win the state by 20 percentage points instead. Even in that case, Sanders would still trail Clinton nationally by almost 200 elected delegates and about 2 million votes, depending on turnout in California.

In fact, Clinton can still win an elected delegate majority provided that she wins just 215 of the remaining 714 pledged delegates available on Tuesday and in the District of Columbia’s primary next week, or 30 percent.


A well reasoned argument is like a diamond: impervious to corruption and crystal clear - and infinitely rarer.

Here, as elsewhere, people are outraged at what feels like a rigged game -- an economy that won't respond, a democracy that won't listen, and a financial sector that holds all the cards. - Robert Reich