bounce On average, candidates get about a 5-point bounce, according to Gallup data going back to 1964. That includes candidates like George McGovern (1972), John Kerry (2004) and Mitt Romney (2012) — each of whom received no discernible bounce during their conventions. But it also includes Jimmy Carter (1980) and Bill Clinton (1992) — who both got double-digit bounces. (Gallup is the most comprehensive source of historical polling data for presidential elections, despite the organization’s decision to forgo horse-race polling thiis year.
Politico.
The trend, BTW, is smaller convention bounces.